Market Conditions: Chicago Sales Fall 20.1% in March Year Over Year
Sorry about the delay in posting the latest sales data but I had the wrong date for the release so I missed it by a day. (whoops!)
As expected, March homes sales slid 20.1% compared to 2010 which was boosted by the home buyer tax credit. The median home price also fell.
From the Illinois Association of Realtors:
In the city of Chicago, March home sales (single family and condominiums) totaled 1,450, up 37.3 percent from 1,056 sales in the previous month and down 20.1 percent from 1,814 homes sold in March 2010.
The city of Chicago median price in March 2011 was $191,000 up 7.6 percent compared to $177,500 in February 2011 and down 8.6 percent from a year ago in March when it was $209,000.
Here’s a breakdown of the March statistics since 2007:
- March 2011: 1450 sales
- March 2010: 1814 (tax credit boost)
- March 2009: 1212
- March 2008: 2044
- March 2007: 2311
The median price continues to fall.
- March 2011: Median price of $191,000
- March 2010: $209,000
- March 2009: $219,000
- March 2008: $300,000
- March 2007: $285,000
It was the 9th straight monthly sales decline.
“Comparing the housing market in 2011 with 2010 and 2009, the sales volume is recovering; however, the housing prices remain well below prior year levels although the trend suggests some modest price recovery. The removal of foreclosed properties from the inventory will have long-term positive benefits to the housing market. However, in the near-term the presence of these properties serves as a significant break on any upward trend in prices,” said Dr. Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) of the University of Illinois.
This was the first month the IAR highlighted the median condo sales price in Chicago in its press release, which actually rose year over year.
“In March 2011 over the same period in 2010, the city of Chicago saw an increase in the Chicago condo median price to $275,000 from $267,500 in March 2010. If activity remains steady, we will continue to see absorption of inventory in the traditional market, given more lending options become consumer-friendly to qualified buyers,” said Mabel Guzman, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and a REALTOR® with Envision Real Estate LLC, Chicago.
“We remain highly engaged in the issues relating to government sponsored enterprise (GSE) reform, as any changes can hinder borrowers from being able to purchase a home. We are closely monitoring current trends and the distressed marketplace, along with appraisals, to determine their collective impact on values and housing affordability in the city of Chicago.”
March Illinois Home Sales Show Momentum Heading into Spring Market [Illinois Association of Realtors, Press Release, April 20, 2011]
The rise in the median price of condos would seem to indicate that more marginal buyers are squeezed out of the market by tightened credit and larger down payment requirements.
The bottom callers called the wrong bottom: the market hasn’t bottomed, the bottom has fallen out of the market.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_d8ROhH3_vs
Wile e coyote
Building collapse analogy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKeENdyIluI
All this bullshit that is posted on this site is just that – BS. You know why? Because it doesn’t translate into any meaningful data or help 99.9999999% of the people on this site. Seriously, if you look at all the doom and gloom that Sabrina picks, you would expect that there are tremendous deals out there – well, take a break from CC and take a look at what is out there – there are very few deals and, for the most part, from what I see – the majority of the houses/condos out there are on sale for much more than what they were bought for in the mid 2000s. Then go look at the financial news and see how we are near 3 year highs for the stock market, gold and silver are near all time highs and gas is getting up there. Then come back to this site and tell me that it isn’t foolish and silly!!!
clio on April 21st, 2011 at 6:30 am
All this bullshit that is posted on this site is just that – BS.
So why do you keeep coming back? It seems if it’s not YOUR opinion, Clio, then it’s wrong.
Clio, go get some coffee and re-read this article. I think this article actually builds a case for what you say on here every day. Looking at volume, it was below the artificial 2010 level, but about 20% above the 2009 level. As far as price goes, it was down year over year, but up month over month. Seems like a mixed bag there. Thinking about that tax credit, I would say you could knock the price in 2010 down by about $5,000 (let’s just assume 2/3 of the credit) given that not all taxpayers qualified. That would bring the median price closer to $204,000, implying about a 4% decrease year over year in prices. Not too bad. Given that prices were down over 10% the year prior, this seems to suggest we are getting close to the bottom.
That being said this is all just data and you really do not know what it is being made up of. If the high or low end of the market is coming back faster, then obviously the data is skewed.
Laura, That is an interesting observation, I am not sure I agree, but certainly a point to think about. I think lending standards, while still tight, are beginning to loosen a bit. It was the standard over correction of being too tight right after the crisis, and now trying to modify to come back to a reasonable median (but never back to the “free money” times of the mid 2000’s.
Build up your war chests over this spring and summer because the true bottom won’t be here until Fall. Why should the government have any involvement in lending? Let’s get rid of/phase out the GSE’s over the next 5 years so that we have a true lending market based on risk and not for the “good of the people”. It’s funny they only list condo price changes when it’s a positive number. If it decreases in April, they won’t mention it.
“Build up your war chests over this spring and summer”
yeah – because you are going to need it when rents continue to increase and all you suckers who didn’t buy are stuck renting for the next 5-10-15 years!!!!
“Then go look at the financial news and see how we are near 3 year highs for the stock market, gold and silver are near all time highs and gas is getting up there.”
This only helps the very top bracket. 80% of people own very little stocks, gold or silver – but they do put gas into their cars which is eating into their monthly budget.
We have seen some more movement in the upper bracket (i.e. $4 million homes selling, some $3 million condos etc.) This is all because of the stock market reflating. The rich feel safer and better. Hedge fund assets are back to record highs as if the financial crisis never even happened.
For everyone else, it still sucks. Wages were cut and never raised. Inflation is eating into food and energy. A thousand people showed up at a McDonald’s in the suburbs yesterday to apply for 14 jobs that paid $8.25 an hour!
How can the housing market recover when most of the buyers aren’t anywhere near a recovery?
Unemployment is starting to come down (albeit slowly). I don’t believe the economy is going to roar out of this recession, but I do believe we are finding a bottom and things have been getting better for a little while now. As clio points out, the stock market has been rising, and that is a leading economic indicator while unemployment is a lagging indicator, so that is why we still have so many people showing up for jobs at McD’s!
“The rich feel safer and better…For everyone else, it still sucks”
WRONG!!!!!!!! When the rich feel better, the poor feel better (- in other words, the rich start hiring and give the poor more jobs, the rich start spending and pump more money in the economy and the rich serve as examples for many of the lemmings out there who follow their lead)
Some headwinds that still face the housing market:
1. Changes to Fannie/Freddie/FHA. The government is backing 90% of all loans. This is unsustainable.
2. Shadow inventory. RealtyTracs expects foreclosures to pick up again in the second half of the year. Illinois ranks in the Top 10 in the country in foreclosures.
3. Rising mortgage rates. After QE2 ends, will rates rise?
4. Possible elimination of the mortgage interest deduction- which really only affects the upper middle class as many middle class homeowners don’t have enought deductions to get over the standard deduction level. What would elimination of it do to the $400k-$800k housing market?
5. The change in the law that allowed short sale income to NOT be taxed by the IRS expires at the end of the year. Will Congress really vote to extend this with the housing market and economy “recovering”? As Bob pointed out- we could see a rush of people trying to do short sales in the second half of the year to get it done before the deadline. Otherwise- the “forgiven” difference on the loan will once again be taxable.
6. Over 50% of Chicago sales are distressed sales. This is not “normal.”
I’m sure others could add to this list.
“This only helps the very top bracket. 80% of people own very little stocks, gold or silver”
Yeah – but less than 50% of people actually own – so your numbers don’t prove anything
Clio- the trickle down is a myth. Just because the rich now feel good enough to buy 2 Louis Vuitton bags doesn’t help the person out of work in Galewood. That’s why they’re all at the McDonald’s looking for work. The job market is brutal right now. And most of the lost jobs aren’t coming back.
We’re soon to see severe cuts in government services and workers as well. Are the rich going to help all those government librarians who are laid off? I don’t think so.
But it does help the luxury retailers, auto makers and the upper end of housing (and furniture/interior designers.)
It’s simply not a big enough part of the economy to make up for the recession still occuring in the middle class (who also now can’t even borrow off their homes to go on a nice vacation.)
Less than 50% of people own what? Real Estate? Or stocks, gold, silver?
Stock wealth is concentrated in the upper bracket so it doesn’t do much to lift the middle class. The middle class has $40k in a 401k and that is about it.
clio – those ‘in the know’ (a popular phrase you like to use) is that the decline in the unemployment rate is actually from workers dropping out of the work force, not from any recovery of the job market.
In the articles about McDonald’s hiring yesterday (which happened in McDonald’s across the country)- they said people who had made $20 or $28 an hour just 2 years ago were applying for those jobs paying $8.25. But they had been out of work for 2 years and were just looking for anything. The unemployment runs out after 99 weeks after all. Many people are now bumping up against the limit.
“80% of people own very little stocks, gold or silver – but they do put gas into their cars which is eating into their monthly budget.”
This is actually incorrect, given national 401(k) participation rates and the fact that 95%+ of asset allocations within 401(k) plans include equities. Also consider the only relevant population is incomes capable of buying a home. At Chicago median that is HH income in excess of 65k.
“Hedge fund assets are back to record highs as if the financial crisis never even happened.”
Also not correct.
“Many people are now bumping up against the limit.”
So they actually have to go find a job? What a chore, right?
“Just because the rich now feel good enough to buy 2 Louis Vuitton bags doesn’t help the person out of work in Galewood”
What kind of a statement is that? Galewood is probably more financially stable than most north side communities. Public employee pensions do wonders. What do you even know about Galewood?
That is wise! I feel bad for people struggling with declining market, but seriously borrowing off ones house to go on a vacation is so irresponsible.
“the middle class (who also now can’t even borrow off their homes to go on a nice vacation.)”
Shut up, clio. “Trickle-down” economics does not work in the real world – http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/12/business/12scene.html
“clio – those ‘in the know’ (a popular phrase you like to use) is that the decline in the unemployment rate is actually from workers dropping out of the work force, not from any recovery of the job market”
how about the underemployed, the guy/gal who to a 50% pay cut just to have a paycheck coming in. Or the kid who right out of school took a low paying position with great advancement then the bubble popped and he is still in that shyte position with no hope of advancement.
i really dont think those people feel the economy is better, and there confidence is needed to buy the median and lower priced homes which make up the majority of homes in chicagoland.
the trickle down theory is a scam, my example the company i work for is having a record year, actually a record 2qtr 2010/3qtr 2010/4qtr 2010 also.
in-spite of that all raises are still froze, very minimal amount of hiring, we did loosen up on overtime, very minimal investment on capital expenditures (only the ones we get tax credits on), we just got our 401k match back this year but at half of what it used to be.
oh did i mention we ended the year with record sales and have blown out budget and all records this past three months?
but the best part of it all WE HAVE PAID OUT RECORD BREAKING DIVIDENDS!!!!!!!!
umm lets see who is feeling the recovery?
JMM, just read about hedge fund assets hitting their peak in the WSJ yesterday. This is more a function of new funds invested as opposed to returns, but those are still sizeable as well. The fact that some worker who had $25k in his 401k in 2009, who now has $40k will do little to influence their home buying behavior. There just isn’t enough income to clear the market of all these homes that are either for sale or will be for sale in the next 3 months.
yes.. Just what i want, everything is skyrocketing and this thing looks like crap, where do i sign up to buy the crap. What the fick this is telling you is that there is something fundamentally wrong with the asset class, and this is why it is not moving with ANY other fucking asset class. Cause it is shit!!! Almost always all you get buying underperforming assets is future underperformance.
“how about the underemployed, the guy/gal who to a 50% pay cut just to have a paycheck coming in. Or the kid who right out of school took a low paying position with great advancement then the bubble popped and he is still in that shyte position with no hope of advancement.”
These are not, and have never been, buyers of real estate. Why are we concentrating on the unemployed, underemployed and young people? Again, these are NOT the people and will NEVER be the people buying homes. Let’s talk about the demographic of home buyers.
I don’t know about housing market, but young people all around seem to be a little less worried about getting laid off or not fining jobs after graduation.
On the other hand older and mid career people are quite worried about their retirement. Specially state workers. State of Illinois’s pension plan is in serious danger.
There is no question there are significant headwinds in the economy right now, and I have wondered what will happen when the government stops spending. Corporate profits are up though, companies are flush with cash, M&A activity is increasing, job listings are at a 2 year high. There are things one can be positive or negative about, I think we have hit the bottom and seem to be moving back up, but this will be a SLOW recovery compared to those of the past.
I think the biggest factor affecting the housing market will be the potential rise in interest rates. Yes, there will be more distressed sales coming along, but those will work their way through the system. I am not as worried about the tax implications listed above, as the proposals on the table now would lower the income tax for the upper bracket, so I do not believe there will be any bill that passes that creates a large tax increase on the wealthiest of Americans, the special interests in this country would never allow that.
The lending will probably tighten up even more as we confront another bailout, this time for the FHA; and as we phase out the GSE’s, something we can wish had been done before the bubble blew up. We would have been spared a lot of misery had it not been for the bubble-blowing powers of the GSEs and the unraveling of all the bad paper they bought.
Very interesting what’s happening with “low end’ housing, such as condos in Rogers Park. Existing stuff, including some very nice units on nice streets in untroubled buildings, are falling to laughably low prices while a few of the newer rehabs are offering FHA adjustable loans to new buyers. Saw one for $200K that I could “buy” with 3.5% down and a payment of $695 a month, for the first 3 years of an ARM, while much better units have dropped under $100K and are languishing on the market. Watch as these FHA ARM loans blow up in the borrowers’ faces at the first reset, and more cheap subdivision houses and trash condo rehabs hit the market.
I don’t watch upper-bracket properties so closely as I don’t qualify to buy those, but medium-priced stuff, between $200K and $500K, has to suffer more from the fading of the GSEs and much larger down payment requirements.
“These are not, and have never been, buyers of real estate. Why are we concentrating on the unemployed, underemployed and young people? Again, these are NOT the people and will NEVER be the people buying homes. Let’s talk about the demographic of home buyers.”
yes these people are (well were), gosh all that wonderful schooling and you are still dense as shyte.
they guy who took a 50% pay cut to keep a roof over his head and food on his table was a middle-upper middle managment guy who was at his peak making 90k and his sig other around 40k, THEY WERE BUYERS YOU IDIOT! now the guy makes only 45k and his SO hours are cut so around 30k so the family went from 130k to 75k.
THEY ARE STILL BUYERS but with that kind of life hit i think their outlook will be off.
and the kid out of school working his way up the ladder but the ladder was stolen he WAS THE BUYER OF YOUR BOYSTOWN CONDO (YOUR (STUCK HOLDING in a few years.
these are real people that are BUYERS you fricken tool. and you the allmighty that speaks of “emotional purchases”, WHAT THE F**K KIND OF EMOTION YOU THINK THOSE IN THAT SITUATION HAVE NOW ABOUT HOMEOWNERSHIP
“but young people all around seem to be a little less worried about getting laid..”
what bars are you going to, miumiu?
groove – calm down – everything will be ok…. everything is getting back to normal. Don’t panic…..
Groove,
Median household income in Illinois was down 1.0% in 2009 from 2008 (and flat vs 2007). This does not support your 50% pay cut theory. Are there people out there that this happened to, yes. Is this the norm, no.
I can agree that wages have not increased in the last few years, but the decreases consistenly discussed on this website are a pipe dream as well. Most of the people I know are on wage freeze at worst and small increases at best. I know very few people who actually reduced their income and remained employed.
“just read about hedge fund assets hitting their peak in the WSJ yesterday”
Global assets, mostly driven by Asia. U.S. washed out a lot of managers and they are counting certain long-only funds in there as hedge funds, which is not representative. But sticking to the headlines never gets you the whole story.
“Corporate profits are up though, companies are flush with cash, M&A activity is increasing, job listings are at a 2 year high.”
Job postings for skills laid off workers do not have. It is tough to find people, which is why those salaries are starting to creep up.
Agreed JMM. But with the “99 weeks of unemployment beginning to run out”, you would think some of these people have acquired the skills needed for these jobs in the 2 years they have been not working.
“I don’t know about housing market, but young people all around seem to be a little less worried about getting laid off or not fining jobs after graduation.”
MiuMiu, I see you continue to live in your dream world where a 150k combined income can afford 40k tuition for private highschool while living in chicago.
Where did you gather this analysis? Just yesterday in the tribune there was a lengthy article about post college career/job stuggles paired with student date for the 23-30 crowd in Chicago. The one’s that are employed are “malemployed” accepting jobs that don’t even require a college degree.
My father in-law law firm only hires a few law graduates a year in downtown chicago. They have been offering them 40k salary packages and they have droves of people applying for these positions, that ain’t going to cut it with their school debt.
MRK,
you are correct, i am giving the extreme of example spectrum.
but its not as rosy as you think either, all my buds i the trades are either unemployed, working in a different field at a pay cut, or still in the trades at a yearly income loss waiting for a recovery.
My buds that were lower managment were cut during the first round of layoffs. I got one a job at my place in sales for a 30% pay cut (and thats after including potential max commission).
“I know very few people who actually reduced their income and remained employed.”
true but your circle is different than mine, I guess what we each see around us shouldnt be extrapolated across chicagoland? but i do pride myself on being grounded and having close friends from every walk of life and majority of neighborhoods, so i would like to say that my view is more the “whole” than others. maybe i should modest-up and concede its not all’s reality?
“I see you continue to live in your dream world where a 150k combined income can afford 40k tuition for private highschool while living in chicago.”
the disconnect from reality is a wide gap with most here.
“Agreed JMM. But with the “99 weeks of unemployment beginning to run out”, you would think some of these people have acquired the skills needed for these jobs in the 2 years they have been not working.”
Wrong – poor people stay that way because, in general, they are lazy and unmotivated and love to whine. They are NOT about to actually start working for their money!!! How dare you suggest such a thing.
Agreed, we all walk in different circles and thats why I looked at Illinois household income year over year. Once again, not a perfect picture, but not as jaded as what you or I see. That number was basically flat.
To be honest, I work in consulting and most of my friends and co-workers have seen increases of 20-30% in salary over the last 3 years. Many of them have been promoted, which is the majority of that increase, but I realize that is not reality for most people, and a completely jaded view of Chicago.
There is no doubt that there is real struggle out there, but there is also opportunity and things do not seem to be as bad as everyone on this site is always painting them. Granted wages have been flat over the last 2-3 years, but inflation has been as well (excluding the recent run up over the last 3 months, which wages have not likely made up for as of yet).
mrk.. U do realize it is taking an unsustainable level of borrowing to keep those numbers looking so anemic. Remove it and watch out below. Keep it and nighty nite dollar.
Which numbers from looking anemic? The median home price has dropped from $300,000 to $191,000. That drop is fairly steep.
“now the guy makes only 45k and his SO hours are cut so around 30k so the family went from 130k to 75k. THEY ARE STILL BUYERS but with that kind of life hit i think their outlook will be off.”
Groovy – I’m reading “The Millionaire Next Door”, recommended by Sabrina.
The problem with a lot of these buyers is that they overextended themselves to buy the most house they could leverage on a 130K household income. They should have bought much less house and lived below their means. The book outlines how even a 75K HH income is a good income, and how with diligent saving and investing you can become millionaires if you do not spend all your income but build weath and live frugally instead.
There is no reason why everyone should be entitled to own a house in an upper middle class neighborhood. That doesn’t mean you are excluded from homeownership. It just might mean you have to buy a condo in Albany Park. Or a SFH in Berwyn. I’m a secretary. I have a small income. But I’ve still always owned.
Like miumiu told us a couple of days ago, you can buy, but just make sure you can afford the payments in the event of job loss or medical issues, etc. Everyone has to live somewhere whether we rent or own. So if you buy at rental parity or below and plan on staying in your place for at least 10 years, why not buy? Plus you get the tax deductions.
milky,
its on my list to read (thank you Bri Bri). and yes, of the examples i can give 95% of them overextended and got caught when the music was paused.
the groove family is like you small income, but able to sustain a good quality of life without extending. but sadly or ways are not the average and probably wont ever be.
1/2 of the households in America pay no income taxes!! Of the other 50%, perhaps only 10% of them have significant financial assets (i.e. stocks, gold & silver).
So, you have about 5% of households who’s position is stable or improving (because the Fed is inflating asset values). Sabrina is right, I’d say 95% of American households and RE submarkets are not better off.
The well-off are horrified by what’s happening out there, they see the poverty, the demographic changes, the hordes, and they seek refuge away from it. So this group 1) has assets/liquidity, 2) has a reason to self-segregate, so their RE submarkets are still well bid. Call them “GZ” or whatever
We’re in a 2 tiered market. When discussing prices, we have to distinguish between the two. Sabrina is right the mass market is in a great deal of hurt, and clio is right that better areas are doing OK. That’s the way I see it.
PS this is not a political analysis because in Chicago and IL there are plenty of wealthy Democrats who are seeking to self-segregate away from the masses, and there are plenty of Republicans who don’t have alot of wealth or financial assets.
MRK,
remember consulting is the new wave of things, and third party software consulting is growing even more. so yes you are going to see hiring/promotion/raises easily in that segment.
Just as in the trades and manufacturing you will see the polar opposite.
there will always be prosperous and struggle as it was before us and will be after us its just right now that balance has shifted and the gap has gotten too wide.
i am not a econ guy, or a econ follower. i am not even i finance follower either (given i work in finance) i just go by what i see around me and hear from the people i encounter.
I may need to broaden my spectrum more to get a better feel of reality.
of course they fell 20% y/y the tax credit last year was about to expire!
no groove your on the pulse more than others; they just give us a window into their fantasy world. remember they are only 5%
The common mistake here by the bottom callers is that they assume that a slower rate of decline, or, a pick up in the job market in a certain sector (consulting, finance, etc) is indicative of a broader trend of an improvement in the economy. It is not. The economy is not in the economic freefall that it was two years ago, but those that have lost much have yet to regain what they had. The banks are still picking up the pieces, there are still millions of foreclosures yet to be filed, DQ rates are still near record highs, many mortgages are still underwater – even in prime areas; and there are looming issues ahead. It’s really not that difficult to look to the horizon and seem the storm ahead later despite the sunny weather now.
less than the number of people that opposed the war in iraq(approx 10%).
“but i do pride myself on being grounded and having close friends from every walk of life and majority of neighborhoods, so i would like to say that my view is more the “whole” than others. maybe i should modest-up and concede its not all’s reality?”
HD – there is no convincing you that you are wrong – but just remember that life is short and money isn’t everything. Spend and enjoy now – you won’t regret it later. Seriously, you won’t. I deal with people dying every frickin day – and you know what? It doesn’t matter where you live or how much money you have – the only thing that counts is how you have lived your life, the experiences you have had, and the impact that you have had on others….. (translation for morons: you can’t take it with you)
mrk… Was talkin about illinois median household income… But sales, etc… U pick it.. Pull out stimulous and dead, keep it and dead…. Now i dont disagree with what u see… I have said all along, the wealthy will be wealthier than ever before, and globally there will be many many more welathy people… For the middle guy.. Ehhh… Not so good…..
“no groove your on the pulse more than others; they just give us a window into their fantasy world. remember they are only 5%”
thanks revas, my head always loves a extra inflating 🙂
“less than the number of people that opposed the war in iraq(approx 10%).”
sorry missed the premise on that one
“For the middle guy.. Ehhh… Not so good…”
what middle?
what middle… Yep!
The guys that gotta pay for the OTHER 100 million houses in America.
Those of you who held jobs for some time, make really good money but can’t populate an excel sheet, powerpoint should be concerned bc the next gen is smarter. Jobs are shifting as well from finance and law to engineering and science.
Housing will continue to divide imo, good assets will appreciate vice versa. If u find a home u like then buy it bc if u don’t somone else will – assuming its a decent property. Waiting will result in lower prices but perform the math of costing you to wait (some cases better to wait).
One thing to note is supply is diminishing. Not much new construction. When supply reduces and demand stays neutral or advances, prices rise….food for thought.
same as the reason why trickle down can’t work there aren’t many of them. they have concentrated power and wealth;
but to move the economy in a positive direction (dollars should be allocated to people that would spend their dollar; expand their meager savings; their dollars/perceptions are the most valuable in pushing the economy forward; increase productivity (the creation of more small enterprises) and increased velocity of money (within their economic circle) as well.
First off I did not put the 150K figure in my statement. Our combined income even now exceeds 200K a year and this does not include us consulting. I project it would be closer to 300K by the time our kid is at the age to go to school.
As for your suggested 150K figure, I still don’t think it is not possible for a family of 4 to live on that and pay 40K tuition. It still leaves 110K income. So how do all these families with 60-80K of income are getting by then?
Finally, ones income alone is not a sufficient statistic, the financial capacity of a family depends very much on when people have their kids and whether they had loans or other commitments. We are having our kid when we are both over 30 and none of us have school loans. I understand this is a different scenario that having kids in early twenties or while fresh out of the school with loans to pay.
As Jennifer pointed out, even many people who earn over 150K income still choose to send their kids to public schools (move to suburbs and such). That is a mater of personal choice and at the end of the day each family must decide how they prefer to spend their income.
““I see you continue to live in your dream world where a 150k combined income can afford 40k tuition for private highschool while living in chicago.””
“Those of you who held jobs for some time, make really good money but can’t populate an excel sheet, powerpoint should be concerned bc the next gen is smarter. Jobs are shifting as well from finance and law to engineering and science.”
They maybe smarter at inputting data, but they have a very limited understanding regarding the output (Other than here it is – where’s my cookie)
“same as the reason why trickle down can’t work there aren’t many of them. they have concentrated power and wealth;”
Or conversely, there are too many of them….. there are too many unproductive people in the USA today, how can they be supported by trickle down from a very small wealthy class? It’s impossible to trickle down enough to handle 150 million impoverished people in this nation who continue to pump out more and more illegitimate kids. Liberalism and the false ideology of egalitarianism (no, everyone isn’t equal in ability or intelligence) has led us to this situation where the USA will have an underperforming citizenry as its majority.
A Texas college professor did an analysis: “it’s basically over for Anglos in TX”, and this can be extrapolated to the entire USA, the trends are ominous and the numbers no longer compute, there isn’t enough to trickle down. We’re creating a society where minorities will become the majority, and stats are out that it cannot perform to the levels of the past demographic:
“The state’s future looks bleak assuming the current trend line does not change because education and income levels for Hispanics (and Blacks) lag considerably behind Anglos, he said.
Unless the trend line changes, 30 percent of the state’s labor force will not have even a high school diploma by 2040, he said. And the average household income will be about $6,500 lower than it was in 2000. That figure is not inflation adjusted so it will be worse than what it sounds.
“It’s a terrible situation that you are in. I am worried,” Murdock said.”
This entire demographic situation will lead anyone with money to self-segregate into smaller and smaller RE submarket enclaves. Everyone else will be living in a Blade Runner type urban soup.
“They maybe smarter at inputting data, but they have a very limited understanding regarding the output (Other than here it is – where’s my cookie)”
hahahaaha oh my shyte i love that line, do you mind if i use that?
“We’re in a 2 tiered market. When discussing prices, we have to distinguish between the two. Sabrina is right the mass market is in a great deal of hurt, and clio is right that better areas are doing OK. That’s the way I see it.”
This is how I see it as well. There use to be an escalator connecting to the two groups as buyers moved up with house equity gains. The escalator has now stopped and dry rot has set in on the mid to upper middle steps (including the underwater Gen Xer’s in their 300-400k codos – aging boomers in 650-900k SFH).
There is activity at the low end as all cash investors know they can buy and rent out properties to the “poor” (debt drowning Gen Y)as clio likes to call them. There is activity at the high end 1M+ range as the top 2% have had banner years.
The rich aren’t going to come down from their perches and the young/poor are trapped in the debt muck. Reduced conforming limits are cutting off access to the few qualified buyers with 200k in equity to these properties. You aren’t seeing deals as GEN X is trapped and delusioned boomers are clinging to their nest egg mirage.
I just don’t see how there is not future price drops ahead. As the upper middle class dissappears so must the upper-middle real estate market thus pushing all properties below them down as well… You are starting to see this in the inner burbs now.
If we had two incomes on a permanent basis I’d consider sending my kids to private school, because it would allow us to compromise on location (and therefore price) for a home. The ‘lower end’ schools (hah!) such as Lycee Francais aren’t any more than what daycare costs.
But yes assuming you will always have two incomes is a dangerous plan, over the last year we have sadly discovered that when you have children any number of things can happen that make it impossible for both parents to hold down full-time jobs. We’re going into home buying this time around under the assumption of only one salary, which we’re coming to realise is probably going to mean staying in the suburbs for us.
Yet, Clio, you seem to find it important to post in nearly every thread on this site. Why is that? Sure seems like you have some vested financial interest in rebutting negative views of the state of the RE market….care to disclose what it is?
“All this bullshit that is posted on this site is just that – BS. You know why? Because it doesn’t translate into any meaningful data or help 99.9999999% of the people on this site. Seriously, if you look at all the doom and gloom that Sabrina picks, you would expect that there are tremendous deals out there – well, take a break from CC and take a look at what is out there – there are very few deals and, for the most part, from what I see – the majority of the houses/condos out there are on sale for much more than what they were bought for in the mid 2000s. Then go look at the financial news and see how we are near 3 year highs for the stock market, gold and silver are near all time highs and gas is getting up there. Then come back to this site and tell me that it isn’t foolish and silly!!!”
“I just don’t see how there is not future price drops ahead. As the upper middle class dissappears so must the upper-middle real estate market thus pushing all properties below them down as well… You are starting to see this in the inner burbs now.”
What I foresee is the two-tiered market self-segregates even more from today, where for every one suburb (or GZ submarket) that stabilizes and eventually thrives, there will be 2-3 that fail and turn Blade Runner homogenous random- diversity like today’s Niles where you cannot figure who the hell the people are, where they came from, nor what they have in common. Let’s say that over time, for example that Glenview will survive but Orland Park and Schaumburg will fail. Park Ridge survives but Elmwood Park and Morton Grove go down hard. East Village fails, but Lincoln Sq. survives.. etc.
“We’re going into home buying this time around under the assumption of only one salary, which we’re coming to realise is probably going to mean staying in the suburbs for us.”
why only regulate to the burbs?
we are a one income family and live in the city. in reality we found it to be more expensive to live in the burbs.
Johnny-outputs are determined by input, analysis of output solely means you are misinterpreting the data. No cookie for you, just soup.
“But yes assuming you will always have two incomes is a dangerous plan”
very good thinking
miumiu I don’t think you understand how money works at all
you say you’re gonna make 300k, well guess what just cut that in half for take home pay
so now you’re left with 150k, how in the hell are you going to have a decent mortgage & tax & whatever (5k a month = 60k) and pay for 40k worth of school, have a car pay for gas = minimum 12k, utilities & maintenance & phones & internet & cable = another 15k oh yeah then you have to eat = another 15k if you dine out, and then clothes are another 15k
so you’re short 7k a year and you aren’t even “living it up” or going on any vacations
spending that much on private school is stupid as hell
what are you left with?
They maybe smarter at inputting data, but they have a very limited understanding regarding the output (Other than here it is – where’s my cookie)
Doesn’t matter – employers still prefer to hire them over seasoned professionals. I see it every day in my office, the managers whining about how incompetent their new grad hires are at anything that requires a bit of thought, meanwhile they won’t even read a resume that doesn’t have a Bachelors listed, no matter how great the experience is.
why only regulate to the burbs?
we are a one income family and live in the city. in reality we found it to be more expensive to live in the burbs.
But where do your kids go to school?
“As for your suggested 150K figure, I still don’t think it is not possible for a family of 4 to live on that and pay 40K tuition. It still leaves 110K income. So how do all these families with 60-80K of income are getting by then?”
You will see, Wife and I make 175k combined income and with two young kids, a third on the way and have free in-law day care. We have zero debt and one small car payment. We have never felt so broke, we considered private and realized that is just madness as there are many hidden costs with private school.
It’s human nature to grossly underestimate costs and overestimate income (we expect 100k in consulting).
Having kids is financial death by a thousand paper cuts and the cuts get deeper with each year they age. Especially if you want your kid to live an enriching life in the city of Chicago.
As for the 60-80k income people in the city making it. They buy/rent small less desirable dwellings in mediocre school districts. The elementary level of public schools is fine but progressively gets worse as they increase in grade. Many have no plan for high school. Thos paying for private high school sacrafice saving for college and retirement. Most are probably over levereged and in massive debt.
mac – you are absolutely correct and that is why I laugh at all these young people who think and still believe that they will be able to have kids and live nicely in the city on less than 300k/year. No way – something has to give and when they realize this, THEY are the ones that are going to be flocking to the suburbs. Believe me, it happens with every generation.
Sonies,a 300K income is taxed at around 30% so people take 200K home not 150K, of course one puts certain amounts towards retirement and so on. Some of these taxes are also returned to you by say mortgage deductions. We actually maintain two homes and hence pay two property taxes. If we lived in Chicago, then we would have only one house to maintain. We have BTW, bought our cars in cash and the only loan we have is on our in town 1BR (I think it is around 120K ish), we already have nearly 200K for down payment for the 2BR we are planning to buy (albeit 120K of it was given to us by my in laws). BTW, I spend no where near 12K on my car. As for utilities, we do not have cable and my phone and internet bills are paid through my job. We do not over air condition or warm our home like some folks.
So your math does not apply to us. Every year besides my retirement and fidelity investments, I save at least 30-40K and I am terrible with saving money. I pay tones for cloths, travel abroad (though much of it is reimbursed through my work) and have domestic help, etc… That being said, I almost exclusively eat at home except maybe couple of nights a month that we go out with friends. I am not one of these people who eat every lunch and dinner out, and drink 10 beers every time they go out on a weekend. I think all these things actually help save.
“But where do your kids go to school?”
kid(s) not in school yet, but we have a reserve private school fund/savings if the school route is not to our standards. if the public he(they) end up in is suffice then private school fund rolls into college savings.
many forget how big the city because they think after ashland avenue is a burb called skoie or something.
and many falsely think Linclon Elem is the best public school in chicago.
BTW, mac and Clio, you might be right. So far we have lived without kids so I might be under estimating the cost of having kids and therefore, we might not be able to afford the private school for 2 kids as you say. BTW, if you feel so broke mac, may I ask why you are having the 3rd kid?
I did not include at all consulting money in my income numbers. I constantly turn down consulting offers as I feel I already am over worked.
Dan the new ghettos will be the exurbs. Just like in Paris where everyone wants to live in the city proper and the poor are held up far outside the city core.
there’s a saying to live by
“don’t argue with idiots”
i’m gonna just stop doing that
And Sonies, have you been talking to my husband again?! ; )
“miumiu I don’t think you understand how money works at all”
“the majority of the houses/condos out there are on sale for much more than what they were bought for in the mid 2000s”
If this were true, it would indeed signal a big change in market conditions.* Last time this statement was made, I asked for evidence. I still haven’t seen any, though remain open to be surprised by additional info and interested in contrary data points.
For condos especially, those selling for more than a mid-2000’s price are outnumbered by those selling for less (usually substantially less) by about 10-to-1.
Here was a smattering of LP condos from another thread:
http://cribchatter.com/?p=10297#comment-145842
In fact, this seems to be even more pronounced in the higher-priced neighborhoods – though I’m certain this isn’t because they’re falling faster than lower-priced neighborhoods but rather because the higher-income sellers in the more expensive hoods can be sell for a significant loss w/o foreclosure/short sale.
*Clio says “are on sale for” as opposed to “have sold for”, so perhaps he’s only talking about listing prices? If so, it would still be news to me, as I hardly ever see people listing places for above bubble prices anymore (there are still a few, but unlike in 08-09, they’re few and far between).
What are the good private schools under the very top tier? All I hear about is Parker & Latin. Those look like $25k-$27k or so a year. What does $12k to $14k a year get you?
“The common mistake here by the bottom callers is that they assume that a slower rate of decline, or, a pick up in the job market in a certain sector (consulting, finance, etc) is indicative of a broader trend of an improvement in the economy.”
Saying it is so doesn’t make it so. There is neither a slower rate of decline nor an isolated pick up in the job market.
Unemployment is down both sequentially and YoY in the subject markets — you are wrong.
http://lmi.ides.state.il.us/download/LAUS_CURRENT_CITY.pdf
roma – correct, I said “for sale” but that is really important – it is a sign that buyers are NOT giving in to the demands/expectation of buyers. it is also a sign that there are more sellers who don’t NEED to sell. The shift of power is changing. Remember, every piece of data is important.
That is exactly right JMM, and labor force participation is relatively flat over that time period (as someone earlier referenced the shrinking workforce). Unemployment is improving, but 9-10% is still way above the historical norms.
I agree with several on this board about the two tiered approach. These jobs are certainly not the manufacturing jobs that left this country in the 2000’s and do require a different skill set. There is likely more pain to come for the lower and lower middle class, however, for the upper middle and upper class things have been improving for about a year now. Wage freezes are being lifted, bonuses and raises are coming back and the stock market is up. All of these things fuel the perception that the future will be better (whether or not it actually will remains to be seen), which makes these people more comfortable buying real estate.
roma thanks for the link 2 days ago… I had seen parts of it before but one of the best things about having smoked away my short term memory is everything i read is always new to me….
The IAR appears to still have their own “median” calculations. Here’s what the mls for Chicago shows (what they claim to be using as their source):
Chicago attached & detached SFH March closings, median and Feb-Mar change in median:
2007 2,399 $285,000 +5.6%
2008 2,098 $300,000 +3.4%
2009 1,219 $217,000 -0.5%
2010 1,860 $207,750 +18.0%
2011 1,467 $163,400 +8.9%
Here’s the monthly median comparison between IAR and my mls numbers:
Jul 2010 IAR $196,500 G $196,500
Aug 2010 IAR $200,000 G $200,000
Sep 2010 IAR $180,000 G $180,000
Oct 2010 IAR $183,000 G $183,000
Nov 2010 IAR $206,000 G $180,000
Dec 2010 IAR $199,250 G $167,250
Jan 2011 IAR $170,000 G $149,500
Feb 2011 IAR $177,500 G $150,000
Mar 2011 IAR $191,000 G $163,400
Since they brought up Chicago condos this time, a little fact checking of their numbers might be helpful. They didn’t report the volume, but it decreased similarly to the volume of all SFH that they reported. Here are the March Chicago attached SFH closings and median from the mls (and IAR medians):
2010 1,079 $266,000 (IAR $267,500)
2011 825 $205,000 (IAR $275,000)
They are clearly not reporting the median numbers from the mls data, although that’s what they claim.
“Unemployment is down both sequentially and YoY in the subject markets — you are wrong. ”
The rate, sure. But have you noticed that the numerator is growing mostly due to things like the 50,000 new McD’s hires, and that the denominator has been shrinking as people give up on ever getting a job?
miumiu — 300k is a good amount of money but it will, at best, have you stretching for a SFH in Lake View in a few years particularly if it is W2 of 1099 income. Plus if one of you exits the workforce, things will be a lot different.
Current income is important to an extent but it is grossly overrated. Wealth creation activities, successful ones, are the missing factor a lot of the Gen Y complainers fail to see in the observed lifestyles, real estate values etc. What they cannot see doesn’t hurt them but it does contribute to the myopia.
The vast majority of my current income comes from qualified business dividends (15%). A small amount comes from W2 wages. True dividends are a double tax, but corporate tax planning lessens that burden significantly. What current income I draw pays bills but the rest is intentionally reinvested in productive wealth-creating activities such as acquiring new equipment, hiring talented managers or saving to buy new businesses on a conservative, low leverage basis. The vast majority of my wealth comes from capital gains and by private ownership of equity in companies which has appreciated based on hard work / sweat equity. Though it is more significant in scale, this economic model applies the same way to a small fledgling entrepreneur.
I would venture to say that most wealth and concomitant high levels of resulting income are generated in exactly the same fashion. There is nothing preventing a small business venture from starting, particular for women-owned and minority-owned businesses for which there are excellent incentives. Even failure, if it occurs, should be embraced because usually it leads to success. By pursuing this route, you are self selecting tons of other equally intelligent and potentially successful people out because they have neither the motivation nor the inclination to hang out a shingle. I think this is what frustrates Clio a bit — you’d be surprised how significant the opportunities are if you actually look for them. Many people, even highly compensated bankers, lawyers and corporate officers, lack the risk appetite to pursue this sort of thing. Turning in your Goldman business card for one that simply says “XYZ Frozen Pizza Co.” can be a jarring transition, but it is where the money is truly made. Plus it is fun, though often difficult and even more so for pedigreed types to adjust to because the real business world can be demanding in very banal ways (making sure product ships, orders are processed, contracts are adhered to, etc). Lastly, it is not the exclusive domain of Ivy educated, Ivy MBA or law people nor does it require excessive wealth to pursue.
There is a bit of a myopic view here in terms of how people afford what and why and how.
G,
I think we have already proven that household income has been flat. Not sure what other data you need, or are you just going with your “experience”?
“BTW, if you feel so broke mac, may I ask why you are having the 3rd kid?”
Sure, life comes down to what your willing to sacrafice and what you are not. Not having third kid was not on the table. We can easily improve our financial situation by moving to an inner burb and still maintain access to friends and favorite city activities. Right for us not for others…
As of 6 months ago I was a staunch opposer to moving out of the city. But then I really buckled down and analyzed it from every angl. Even with just two kids I realized that I was making far too many favorable assumptions. Life is bumpy and a financially stressed home is a miserable place for everyone.
My opinion is at 150-175k you are going to be sacraficing too much to make private highschool work for more than one kid. We weren’t willing to sacrafice hobbies, vacations, whatever our kids passions may be (youth is fleeting, this is their time). We also weren’t willing to do public for the early years to only rip our kids away from their social circles at a delicate point in their lives. Once again right for us maybe not for others.
“The rate, sure. But have you noticed that the numerator is growing mostly due to things like the 50,000 new McD’s hires, and that the denominator has been shrinking as people give up on ever getting a job?”
No actually you are wrong. And here is the data to show it:
http://lmi.ides.state.il.us/download/LAUS_YTD_CITY.pdf
Chicago labor force 1/11 1,301,691
Chicago labor force 3/11 1,303,076
Chicago unemployment 1/11 10.1%
Chicago unemployment 3/11 9.3%
G why don’t you call the IAR and tell them they are lying to the public and see what they say? Too lazy or scared what you might hear?
Clio always says buyers miss out on life by refusing to buy even if its a bad financial decision, but he forgets sellers face this same force and waiting for death to sell isn’t a good strategy. Sellers may not have to sell, but they still want to move on with life. With demographics turning negative for housing eventually they will move on and sell at lower real values.
“and many falsely think Linclon Elem is the best public school in chicago”
Groove, then what is? Is it one of those three that start with a “B” or the one that starts with a “D,” all of which are located in neighborhoods some folks would prefer to only occassionaly drive through?
My man, Groove, something horrible must have happened to you during your brief tenure living in LP. I know you were bothered by the heavy traffic, the Chads and Trixies, etc. But you’ve got one giant anti-LP chip on your shoulder, which is strange for a seemingly mellow fellow.
It’s interesting, really. You don’t hear ChicagoBull, Jay or me negatively obsessing over the various far-flung/marginally GZ neighborhoods. Yet many who live in (or aspire to live in, see, e.g., HD) those neighborhoods are obsessed with LP.
“Unemployment is improving, but 9-10% is still way above the historical norms.”
Historical norms have been reset, though the degree to which is debateable. Many economists have pointed to 7% as full employment. Why is that important? Less labor slack in the economy. Why does that matter? Wage inflation.
“Yet many who live in (or aspire to live in, see, e.g., HD) those neighborhoods are obsessed with LP.”
Lincoln Park pricing probably has more downside than other north side neighborhoods. Crime is higher, residential base is more transient and the prices are higher. SFH homes are not affordable even to high income younger families. Those that are affordable have serious issues — non standard lots, lack of parking, no or limited setbacks or 1800’s construction.
“Dan the new ghettos will be the exurbs. Just like in Paris where everyone wants to live in the city proper and the poor are held up far outside the city core.”
I don’t know about that, there are plenty of people leaving places, for instance like Streamwood, Orland, H-F, Munster, IN (which are turning into random multi-culti crapholes), and they are moving out to Randall Road, Lincoln Hwy. etc. The exurbs are really now just suburbs of places like Naperville! Gurnee is basically a suburb of the I-94 office corridor etc. They aren’t really exurbs.
“As for the 60-80k income people in the city making it. They buy/rent small less desirable dwellings in mediocre school districts. The elementary level of public schools is fine but progressively gets worse as they increase in grade. Many have no plan for high school. Those paying for private high school sacrafice saving for college and retirement. Most are probably over levereged and in massive debt.”
Mac,
My man this is way off. the 60 to 80k people can make it easier in the city than the burbs, and these wont be the people looking in lakeview and edgewater they are the thrifty people that know forest glenn/jeff park have a good school in beaubian and a 200k 3br home with a a yard 2car garage and bikes on the fron lawn unlocked without a care.
I will conceed the plan for high school is flawed and they end up if the kid miss a spot a t good one relying on St Pats or moving.
but these 80k a year folk some are over leveraged as MOST OF AMERICA IS but over leveraging a 200k house into 300k debt is different than say leveraging a 2/2 600k condo in River north to 800k to buy a home in wilmette for 700k and carry the bag for both.
“Groove, then what is? Is it one of those three that start with a “B” or the one that starts with a “D,” all of which are located in neighborhoods some folks would prefer to only occassionaly drive through?”
as stated Oriole park tops lincoln each report, Edgebrook elem is another that some year beats it and some years is on par, Ebinger is one that is overlooked even sometimes by me, Norwood park another, the “b” named schools actually test lower than the ones i mentioned.
JMM… I’m in agreement with you but you do realize few have your backstop to take risks.
Btw… How easy do u think those receiving entitlements are going to just give them up. My bet is an aggressive attempt to flatten the distribution. Prepare for a fight!
So JMM, is that your explanation of why folks who have no desire to live in LP are so obsessed with LP? It’s because they’re so concered about LP residents? I’m confused.
I’m specifically confused as to:
1) “Crime is higher”
Compared to where is crime higher in prime LP?
2) “residential base is more transient and the prices are higher. SFH homes are not affordable even to high income younger families. Those that are affordable have serious issues — non standard lots, lack of parking, no or limited setbacks or 1800’s construction.”
That could describe Manhattan and SF (though not 1800’s construction), maybe London, or any of the most expensive and desirable urban areas.
“Clio always says buyers miss out on life by refusing to buy even if its a bad financial decision, but he forgets sellers face this same force and waiting for death to sell isn’t a good strategy. Sellers may not have to sell, but they still want to move on with life. With demographics turning negative for housing eventually they will move on and sell at lower real values.”
Agreed, it takes time for people to rationalize a loss where as it only takes them seconds to make a decision on an impulse.
As time goes on the loss becomes marganlized and pressure from the delayed impulse to get on with their life mounts. When that scale tips they will lower their price.
There are just not enough impulse buyers with funding access to get to the 550-600k plus level and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
“My man, Groove, something horrible must have happened to you during your brief tenure living in LP. I know you were bothered by the heavy traffic, the Chads and Trixies, etc. But you’ve got one giant anti-LP chip on your shoulder, which is strange for a seemingly mellow fellow.”
its not a chip, i do love LP, its i just get tired of the cheerleading and the holy praise it gets. yes its a great place i know that but value per dollar is where it fails as a whole for me.
i guess its not a chip, more as a needed devils advocate role that i play.
I do miss the eye candy 🙁
“you say you’re gonna make 300k, well guess what just cut that in half for take home pay ”
wtf. If you make 300k, you’re not paying tax on 300k. Even if you did federal would only be 26%. Figuring in all the other taxes, and even if you max out 2 401ks take home would be closer to 2/3 than 1/2. Trivializing such a high income is absurd. You’re obviously not talking from experience…
But Groove that’s my point – I can’t commit to $28k a year in school fees on one income and our college savings don’t stretch to that kind of expense. And while it’s true that there are lots of great areas in the city, that’s not my city dream. If I have to still drive to the store or the doctor, I might as well do it in a bigger home with a better school that costs the same or less. Just as Chicago isn’t just GZ, the suburbs aren’t just $1m mansions and $20k tax bills either.
can get your eye candy fill at Nordstroms pretty much any day of the week.
“mac – you are absolutely correct and that is why I laugh at all these young people who think and still believe that they will be able to have kids and live nicely in the city on less than 300k/year. No way – something has to give and when they realize this”
again clio, the grooves stand before you that you dont need a 150k income to live a great quality of life to the fullest in the city.
crazy comments about unrealistic incomes and affordability are getting out of hand and to many non-posters that come here for info it can give an unrealistic view of what the truth really is
What JMM means by wealth creation is that his secretary pays a higher overall tax rate than he does.
From trulia…only East Lincoln Park seems to be holding the line..
LINCOLN PARK
The median sales price for homes in Lincoln Park for Jan 11 to Mar 11 was $325,000. This represents a decline of 1.1%, or $3,500, compared to the prior quarter and an increase of 2.2% compared to the prior year. Sales prices have appreciated 7.6% over the last 5 years in Lincoln Park, Chicago. The median sales price of $325,000 for Lincoln Park is 80.56% higher than the median sales price for Chicago IL. Average listing price for homes on Trulia in Lincoln Park was $741,155 for the week ending Apr 13, which represents a decline of 2.4%, or $18,066 compared to the prior week and a decline of 0.3%, or $2,562, compared to the week ending Mar 23. Average price per square foot for homes in Lincoln Park was $431 in the most recent quarter, which is 205.67% higher than the average price per square foot for homes in Chicago.
LAKEVIEW
The median sales price for homes in Lakeview for Jan 11 to Mar 11 was $250,000. This represents a decline of 43.5%, or $192,500, compared to the prior quarter and a decrease of 38% compared to the prior year. The median sales price of $250,000 for Lakeview is 38.89% higher than the median sales price for Chicago IL. Average listing price for homes on Trulia in Lakeview was $387,505 for the week ending Apr 13, which represents a decline of 0.6%, or $2,443 compared to the prior week and a decline of 2.4%, or $9,625, compared to the week ending Mar 23.
DE PAUL
The median sales price for homes in DePaul for Jan 11 to Mar 11 was $460,000. This represents a decline of 13.9%, or $74,000, compared to the prior quarter and a decrease of 4.2% compared to the prior year. Sales prices have depreciated 23.3% over the last 5 years in DePaul, Chicago. The median sales price of $460,000 for DePaul is 155.56% higher than the median sales price for Chicago IL. Average listing price for homes on Trulia in DePaul was $813,018 for the week ending Apr 13, which represents an increase of 0.8%, or $6,502 compared to the prior week and an increase of 0.6%, or $4,626, compared to the week ending Mar 23. Average price per square foot for homes in DePaul was $331 in the most recent quarter, which is 134.75% higher than the average price per square foot for homes in Chicago.
“But Groove that’s my point – I can’t commit to $28k a year in school fees on one income and our college savings don’t stretch to that kind of expense”
you can make it work i made it work on less, you can too. i forgot how many kids you have? I will dig for a spreadsheet i roughed up where i found that three kids is the tipping point for the burbs move with us.
remember homes are cheaper in chicago (most areas) than the burbs and the taxes are cheaper even when the home is at same value.
“while it’s true that there are lots of great areas in the city, that’s not my city dream.”
and everyone’s ideals are different true, but people saying a good family life in the city is not affordable is false.
“If I have to still drive to the store or the doctor, I might as well do it in a bigger home with a better school that costs the same or less.”
I dont have to drive anywhere i choose to have that luxury, i have all the wonders of walkabilty and CTA outside my door. and seriously who’s doctor is in walking distance? i know i dont choose my doctor by that standard.
I dont need a BIG home as there are 3 of us, why heat and cool all that space? i do need a big yard and oops i actually have one in the city SHOCKING.
“the suburbs aren’t just $1m mansions and $20k tax bills either.”
true, but a 400k-500k home in river forest is pushing the the 20k tax bill.
even naperville is upping property taxes.
“Mac,
My man this is way off. the 60 to 80k people can make it easier in the city than the burbs”
Groove, my post was mostly in terms of the green zone and green zone adjacent areas as you and I well know that most people here would consider the areas you mentioned and inner burbs one in the same. I follow your posts routinely as I find you have very sound advice about how life is more enjoyable when living within your means.
Wife and I have heavily looked at and are still consdering the northwest parts of the city (edison park, old norwood are really nice, jefferson park is kind sporadic and blah). We are heavily considering park ridge (especially on the edison park border as we prefer their downtown to ridge’s uptown) as well and are comparing the two. Walkable Metra station and social activities are a must and trump house size requirements.
With three kids high school is a big challenge if we go private and I don’t see Taft turning around so it makes ths tax/price increase of a inner burb more affordable. Crazy to go into our next home purchase without planning on being their 10-15 which puts us in the high school years.
mac,
If you’re considering the inner burbs you might also want to look at the North Shore. I was doing some browsing of that area recently and prices have come down quite a bit on far more properties than the city. Likely because it’s not as transient of a place like the GZ McCrapBoxes are.
@ JMM, you are right I doubt that we will ever be rich, unless actually one of us starts a company (not my aspiration but my husband might).
That being said, I am surprised about the comments on this website, basically it is just assumed that if you have more than one kid you have to move to suburbs to make ends meet. They conjecture this for income levels from 40K up to 200K a year. All I am saying is that there is a huge difference between these incomes. I think a family of 4 with 150plus income can certainly afford to live in the city and potentially send kids to private schools. Now if you want to have a 5BR single family home in LP or Gold cost, that is impossible. But they are plenty of nice 3 Br condos, town homes, and even small SFH that are in nice enough neighborhoods and would work for people. That was all I was saying.
I even asked few days ago if I was missing something, because people seem to think it is so impossible to live in the city. I think most of these folks talk from their experience which involves the common American family model: a huge suburban home, huge cars (SUVs), stay at home mom who still orders food constantly instead of cooking it, keeping the car on with AC running in summer while running errands, having the best cable package, going to movies every weekend and spending 5$ on popcorn, paying 40$ to get ones nails done every week and so on. I think if one is more frugal on certain aspects can make the dollars stretch. That being said. I have not done this myself so I might be completely off.
“wtf. If you make 300k, you’re not paying tax on 300k. Even if you did federal would only be 26%. Figuring in all the other taxes, and even if you max out 2 401ks take home would be closer to 2/3 than 1/2. Trivializing such a high income is absurd. You’re obviously not talking from experience”
right because tax rates on the rich are currently at historical all time lows and there’s no way that they could ever go higher, right?
idiot
Absolutely, 3 kids at 20K each just for school and perhaps 10K for donations, uniforms,… is 70K and is huge amount obviously. Also you would pay more for food, require more bedrooms in your house and so on. Say every time you go on a trip oversees you have to pay over 1K for the ticket and so on, so every kid is a huge expense.
“With three kids high school is a big challenge if we go private”
“Groove, my post was mostly in terms of the green zone and green zone adjacent areas”
my posts are arguing the quips of how a below 150k income are not sustainable or one cant fathom possible to live in the city.
i wont lambaste anyone for the choice they make to skip to the burbs as everyone should do what they feel is best for their family and when income is average a family has to balance the trade offs.
I agree taft is far from a suitable school in my standards, so testing in to a HS or paying for Pat’s or ND are the options. even moving to NT dist for a few years is another.
Many say you are breaking up the kids social circle. but those who say that didnt go to CPS, as the truth is after 8th grade you all split up and go to many different HS’s throughout the city, so that argument is invalid.
Now Mac my buddy you have three kids, and will say (maybe even help you move) run to the burbs. law of averages say you wont have all three kids test well and private of all three is INSANE. so better to pay parkridge taxes than tuition.
(remember tuition will end but taxes wont)
nothing wrong with the burbs. hey even groove was looking for homes in river forest and Kenilworth.
Funny i do the reverse of what your planning, I live in the city pay city taxes but use the shyte out of oak park amenities 🙂
maybe when you move we will toss a few back at emerald isle?
“right because tax rates on the rich are currently at historical all time lows and there’s no way that they could ever go higher, right?”
For the foreseeable future all we’ll get is more tax on over 250k. That’s been pretty clear, and with that increase you’re still nowhere near half take home pay. A 300k wage earning couple who owns real estate is unlikely to have much agi over 250k if at all, so it don’t change shit. Sorry you’re bad at math and don’t understand taxes.
I have two kids – a daughter in 1st grade and a son about to turn 1. If you can find me a 3 bed place in a school that scores higher than 90% for a monthly cost of $1500 all in, with walkable El access I’ll take it.
Miumiu I don’t do a single one of those. Especially not the nails!
I dont know what you consider walkable and if you need only the “EL” (i will have more if metra is an option)
but this is just a quick look. oriole park is the elementary
MLS#: 07749165
MLS#: 07551709
MLS#: 07760308
Sonies,
This is not a place I particularly like, but I use it as an example:
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1250-S-Michigan-Ave-60605/unit-2101/home/18946644
We can buy this selling our properties and taking less than 100K mortgage and still have some emergency cash, then we would have to pay taxes and assessments on it which is no where neat your 5K a month figure. Pray tell me why then we cannot afford to send our 2 kids to private school even if we make what we do now (over 200K)?
Yes Jennifer and you are also looking to move back to the city. So you are the opposite of the stereotype : )
also what burb has a 90% for only 1500 a month all in. somebody find me that!
Miumiu, have you looked at Riverside? Near west suburb, beautiful individually-interesting houses and tree-canopied winding streets, Metra station for fast commute to downtown (15 min?), excellent elementary school, solid smallish high school, many parks, big box retail located outside of village but nearby, etc. Priced from mid-$200s to $1m.
Groove – Are you trying to interest others in the NW side with those listings?
Also, what happened to your plan of buying in Galewood?
Maybe this meets Jennifer’s unicorn criteria? 07760161
“Are you trying to interest others in the NW side with those listings?”
no, just hitting jenny’s vague criteria in matter of minutes. I can give her some wonderful listings, some i viewed too but i dont know she want only EL and what is her comfort of walkable.
“Also, what happened to your plan of buying in Galewood?”
may have already happened 🙂 but we did throw a low ball out in “south edgebrook” overlooking the golf course. didnt pan out
here is a place walkable to metra
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1911-N-Newcastle-Ave-60707/home/13430432
Chris M,
we will be at this open house look for us if you are able to walk over that day
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Oak-Park/329-Clinton-Ave-60302/home/13270964
GROOVE77: I LOVE VICTORIAN CHARM BUT THAT HOUSE IS OVERKILL.
Groove – Nice place…although it’s been on and off the market for several years now. If it warms up by that day maybe we’ll wander over with baby M.
“GROOVE77: I LOVE VICTORIAN CHARM BUT THAT HOUSE IS OVERKILL”
that why it “works”! its so over the top that it just works! i do need to see it IRL though.
Groove – If you’re still in the market check out http://www.redfin.com/IL/Oak-Park/630-S-Maple-Ave-60304/home/13249179
Could be a good buy depending on the work involved. And, work aside, it meets Jennifer’s criteria!
“Groove – Nice place…although it’s been on and off the market for several years now. If it warms up by that day maybe we’ll wander over with baby M.”
I hope its nice as we are planning to roll over there on our new bikes. (thanks russ for the tip on the cruisers!)
Its not in our budget at all but if it speaks to us we may low ball or wait until the price is lower and “make it work” or nothing at all.
“Could be a good buy depending on the work involved”
wow is that asbestos shingled siding on it?
Appears to be the original frame siding.
@ Architect,
I spent some time looking around Riverside last week, it truly is a post card perfect suburb. My issue is the downtown has very little, a dry cleaner, two restaurants, & one coffee/dessert shop, none of which looked very appealing. How far do you have to go for a nice grocery store (Whole Foods or at least a Dominick’s/Jewel?) or Target, etc. No entertainment there or anything….I feel like I’d be spending no time in Riverside other than in my gorgeous house on my mature tree lined street.
Well, I did find one listed above a bubble price:
3321 Sheffield (bought ’07 $425, listed $440)
But I had to go through about 30 to find one. And that was just Lakeivew, and taking out FC/SS, and only 2 br+, and only $250k+.
I did find plenty more listed above ’97-’01 sales prices, but that’s what we would expect given our best indicators of current pricing.
“roma – correct, I said “for sale” but that is really important – it is a sign that buyers are NOT giving in to the demands/expectation of buyers. it is also a sign that there are more sellers who don’t NEED to sell. The shift of power is changing. Remember, every piece of data is important.”
Riverside has some nice homes but it’s not cheap and, as you point out, there’s nothing to do. I find it hard to imagine someone hesitant to leave the city happily relocating to that town.
Groove, good luck if you lowball the one on Clinton. My guess is they can’t go much lower before it being a short sale or foreclosure. It has been on the market FOREVER and I think it started around $900k. That house has definitely taken a hit!
“Groove, good luck if you lowball the one on Clinton”
i go by the philosophy if you dont ask then the answer is always no!
but even a low ball might be too much for us if work needed is substantial. its hard to pass up that much awesomeness if the price is that low!
A lot of talk about taxes and supply-side economics (trickle down) in this thread.
I just read a really interesting article on the subject (link below).
Obviously it is left-leaning but the numbers and math used are legit.
http://www.altweeklies.com/aan/9-things-the-rich-dont-want-you-to-know-about-taxes/Story?oid=3971382
“No actually you are wrong. And here is the data to show it:
http://lmi.ides.state.il.us/download/LAUS_YTD_CITY.pdf
Chicago labor force 1/11 1,301,691
Chicago labor force 3/11 1,303,076
Chicago unemployment 1/11 10.1%
Chicago unemployment 3/11 9.3%”
JMM posts something, and you know it is deceptive. Here’s a more complete data set for Chicago’s monthly total labor force (from his source):
2010 1 1,309,668
2010 2 1,311,958
2010 3 1,315,747
2010 4 1,322,178
2010 5 1,319,865
2010 6 1,330,132
2010 7 1,335,638
2010 8 1,322,097
2010 9 1,321,269
2010 10 1,317,255
2010 11 1,325,821
2010 12 1,314,404
2011 1 1,301,691
2011 2 1,299,422
2011 3 1,303,076
Notice how he cherry-picked one of only two months out of the prior 14 which support his claim. The fact remains that the denominator (labor force) has shrunk, and that explains part of the decline in the UE rate.
Is JMM really this stupid, or just dishonest?
“Is JMM really this stupid, or just dishonest?”
G you are obviously not very analytical. Not only are those numbers NSA, which makes it even more conclusive, they are flat across the period of data you provide and display normal summer seasonality (not that you know what that means). You are too much of an idiot to understand the data you post, so I will point it our for you.
Here is Chicago’s average annual labor force average by year (by definition SA):
2005 1,290,301
2006 1,296,681
2007 1,323,095
2008 1,327,335
2009 1,314,466
2010 1,320,502
The labor force (your denominator) has actually INCREASED since the boom years and has not dropped in any significant way during the recession. This while Chicago’s population has in fact declined, significantly, over the past decade.
Your point about people exiting the labor force is patently incorrect, and your childish attempt to post more data is nonsensical, mostly because you cannot interpret what you post. If people were to exit the workforce don’t you think that would have happened in 2010?
“Well, I did find one listed above a bubble price:
3321 Sheffield (bought ‘07 $425, listed $440)”
Bunch of young people live there because they’re ALWAYS out partying. Young people who can afford to party basically every warm day of the year buying 425k properties..something not right with this picture.
Oh by the way, the absolute number of employed workers in Chicago in 3/11 was: 1,181,243.
Here is 2010 by month. Aggregate employment has increased by 18,000 jobs. So put that in your pipe and smoke it jackass.
1 2010 1,147,419
2 2010 1,155,765
3 2010 1,162,738
4 2010 1,171,359
5 2010 1,171,274
6 2010 1,179,355
7 2010 1,184,930
8 2010 1,179,597
9 2010 1,181,773
10 2010 1,184,371
11 2010 1,191,888
12 2010 1,189,884
13 2010 1,175,029
“Your point about people exiting the labor force is patently incorrect”
Really? I forgot to add that you are sure to make something else up. A simple YOY comparison will take care of the seasonality.
2010 1 1,309,668
2011 1 1,301,691
2010 2 1,311,958
2011 2 1,299,422
2010 3 1,315,747
2011 3 1,303,076
LOL. You would really be nothing without your daddy’s money, JMM.
G – I think it is YOU who is deceptive with data (and lack analytical skills). YOU are the one that cherry picks data and doesn’t seem to understand the deeper meaning. I have no connection or affiliation with JMM (who, by the way, does NOT like me), but I would listen to him over you any day. Sorry to be so negative, but you kind of deserve it.
“Here is 2010 by month. Aggregate employment has increased by 18,000 jobs. So put that in your pipe and smoke it jackass.”
Go ahead and look at my post that you disagreed with orginally. I never said the numerator did not go up in the UE rate calculation, just that most jobs added are like those recently announced by McD’s. I also said the denominator has gone down. You disagreed with the denominator remark by posting one month’s labor force increase. I clearly showed that you cherry-picked that data. You then babbled in your typical manner of trying to wow with us with BS. Problem, is daddy doesn’t pay us to nod in agreement (I’m willing to negotiate on that, have him post an email.) Now, you try to change the argument again to something I never disagreed with.
What a joke you are. If not for daddy, you’d be looking for one of those McD’s jobs (not that there’s anything wrong with that.)
JMM,
I have no dog in this fight (nor do I know why you are so adamant about name-calling), as this isn’t my area, but I don’t understand your rejoinder about seasonality. Labor force has dropped YOY for all 3 months so far according to those figures.
“I’m specifically confused as to:
1) “Crime is higher”
Compared to where is crime higher in prime LP?”
Census tract 071500 which is ELP north of North east of Sedgwick to the lake, which you have a hard on for, ranks 282 out of 873 city tracts (last twelve months, all crime # incidents). That is in the bottom 1/3 worst crime in the city of Chicago.
By contrast, tract 060300 (Blaine School, Lake View) ranks 674 so in the top 1/3 safest.
Clearly there are 591 other examples, but you can look for yourself.
whoops, see you 2 are already rehashing this. nevermind, carry on!
So why then does it cost more to live in tract 071500 than tract 060300?
clio proves again why fading him would be the best strategy.
roma, thanks for paying attention. I’ve lost count how many times JMM has spewed BS when confronted.
Actually, G you are wrong about one thing – you may have missed the thread a long time back. JMM explained that it wasn’t daddy’s money, but in fact it was grand-daddy’s (or was it great-granddaddy’s – I can’t remember myself) money that put him on third base at birth. Regardless, maybe the money goes to his father first and then to him next; maybe great granddaddy set up a trust for him already. Regardless, he’s a few degrees removed from whatever early to mid-20th century captain of industry gave him his title. Just like Paris Hilton.
“What a joke you are. If not for daddy, you’d be looking for one of those McD’s jobs (not that there’s anything wrong with that.)”
The HBS career office might beg to disagree.
In any event, so all these frustrated workers are giving up? Let’s look at a great year, record low unemployment? 2006?
2006 1 1,273,440
2006 2 1,279,983
2006 3 1,282,426
There must have been a lot of people frustrated back then. You aren’t very smart are you?
“So why then does it cost more to live in tract 071500 than tract 060300?”
Ask yourself. You are the one who is propping up the real estate value.
@ Architect, Thank you. At this point we are only looking for 2BR in town. My kid is not even born yet (is still baking : ) ).
“lost count how many times JMM has spewed BS when confronted.”
Actually you were the one who got confronted and it was your BS that precipitated said confrontation.
Did you hear back from the IAR yet? What did they say? Maybe they offered you a job? New statistician?
There is nothing wrong with being born well off or poor for that matter. I don’t get the mentality in this country, everyone wants to get rich at almost any cost and then when someone is born into money everyone hates on them. And then there is the disdain and lack of empathy for the poor.
miumiu – don’t try to understand. The same can be said for someone (like me) who went to U. of C., Harvard and Stanford. Everyone wants to go (and wants their children to go) there, but people attack me about it all the time. Everyone would love to have money, but they attack me all the time because of it. I know that they are going to say it is because of my attitude, but that is just an excuse. Poor, stupid and ignorant people LOVE to make fun and insult successful people. They love the drama of the fall from the top – vultures and bottom-feeders are what these guys are.
clio you don’t exist. You’re an apparition created by the industry shills to try to drum up support for RE and change attitudes. Problem is all you have is emotional appeals and the other side is armed with facts and the trend.
mm.. Most people deeply hate rich people.
Well Clio, you are a bit of character and sometimes throw tantrums : ) But, I agree it is weird how everyone always brings up your car. You know men love to say women are competitive an jealous of each others, but I’d say men are way cattier it is just that it is less about looks more about wealth.
For instance, I don’t get it why people want to elect a president whom they would enjoy having beer with and if the guy is articulated they he is a snob or so on. I want my president who has the nuclear launch code to be smart as it gets. I care less if he is boring (Al Gore) or entertaining (Apparently W was to some).
I have to admit, it would be more fun if ‘clio’ (the internet persona) was at least consistent with Clio (the person the internet persona is supposed to be). I mean, why add in the Harvard/Stanford/UofC stuff?
And Bob, you don’t really believe industry shills would create ‘clio’ to drum up support for RE and change attitudes, do you? Someone like Steve Heitman, sure, but ‘clio’?!??!?
I know many people who have gone to 3 good schools. In fact, once you are in the pool of one good one, it is much more likely that your trajectory passes through the others if you do residency/fellowships or graduate school (master/PhD).
It is much less likely to start at possum state and end up doing graduate degrees in top schools.
“clio you don’t exist. You’re an apparition created by the industry shills to try to drum up support for RE and change attitudes. ”
Bob – this is not true. I feel that I am needed to tell the truth about real estate to the many people that visit this site (but don’t post). The truth of the matter is that people SHOULD be looking to buy now. It gives you tremendous peace of mind and allow you to creatively design the space in which you live. There are SO many positives about home ownership that CLEARLY outweigh the negatives. People need to be brave mavericks and take charge of their life (instead of being wimpy little “scaredy cats” afraid of “what might happen”). Those type of people are losers and will never achieve greatness or get ahead in life. Now Bob, do YOU want to be a winner or loser?
Clio, that is a bit of oversimplification. Every case is different, it is a good time for some to buy and a pretty bad one for others. You cannot just claim homeownership outweighs renting. I for one feel so glad I was in grad school when the boom was happening and got lucky.
Good discussion today, sorry I was busy working all day! What a pissa!
Kids are expensive. Until you have them you’ll never understand.
I know a ton of couples who make “$150k” pretax combined, and none of them are paying 2 private school tuitions or daycares in the city for anything like “$40k” posttax. Many are in the suburbs, and some are in public school, some are in cheaper daycares and a lot are in religious schools. In most distributions of single or dual spousal income it makes a lot more sense in light of spousal taxation for only one spouse to work when the kids are young if you would need to spend that much. When it’s time for school, most of these couples are going to move to the suburbs for “free” education or seek out a much cheaper option than elite private schools. Maybe I project a desire for parents to spend time with their kids as possible as opposed to having them as accessories, but if both people aren’t making more than $75k PRETAX it makes zero sense for the one of them who doesn’t to keep working and pay $40k MOSTLY POSTTAX for daycare at an age where a kid is not yet in school. Obviously it changes at higher incomes and as you can use in-laws for daycare.
“t if both people aren’t making more than $75k PRETAX it makes zero sense for the one of them who doesn’t to keep working and pay $40k MOSTLY POSTTAX for daycare at an age where a kid is not yet in school. Obviously it changes at higher incomes and as you can use in-laws for daycare”
not true- not true at all – right now I am seeing a lot of my friends getting divorced because they thought the same way. Basically the husband was making 500-800k and the wife was making 50-90k. The wives quit to take care of the kids and now that the kids are out of the house, the wives are mad and angry that they gave up their careers. Many of them want out of the marriage now!!!
JJJ, you assume that it is all about the money. Some people do not like to stay at home and would rather work. Also when kids are in school, there is no need to stay at home, one can work part time if they really feel like they have to spend every minute with their kids once they get home from school.
I don’t know how school works here, but I used to have language, sports, art classes after the regular school and be busy with tutors or classes and not be able to run to mummy after school was over. Then I had to work on my homework. I remember I would spend time with my parents only at dinner table and an hour after that to say chat with them or watch some tv or something. I was pretty busy rest of the time. Also when I had free time, I spend a lot of it with my friends and cousins and was not tied to my mum’s apron string.
Now I understand some folks home school their kids then I can see why these parents have to stay at home. It was not the case for us. In fact, I think it might have been illegal to home school.
Exactly, sometimes it makes people resentful towards their spouses when they feel like they were forced to give up their ambitions. Of course one cannot generalize. There are many people who think it is great to be a stay at home parent.
“the wives are mad and angry that they gave up their careers. Many of them want out of the marriage now”
Groove,
I agree with your philosophy, that is why I say good luck. I’ve never actually gone to see that house but it looked good in the listing when priced much higher. I never ended up going because I figured it had to have something really wrong with it to not have sold yet. Please let us know about it Sunday!
Oak Park is out – I may not have mentioned that the steady income job is North Shore.
Suburbs with great schools and decently priced houses include Lake Zurich, Buffalo Grove, Arlington Heights – if you look around you can find places with fairly low taxes in these towns that are still zoned for the better schools.
Miumiu as always I agree completely with you about the working thing. Parenting is not just about feeding a baby or changing it’s diaper, there is so much more to it. I hate when people refer to daycare as letting someone else raise your child. They are not the ones up all night worrying about what schools to send them to! And yes there are those women who only ever wanted to be a housewife and stay home with their kids, but we’re not all built that way.
I also agree however that it’s sometimes more fiscally advantageous for one parent to stay home these days. If I had gone back to work at the hourly rate I was making before I went on maternity leave last year I would have been going into my own pocket to make it work, which is ridiculous. Luckily I’m getting over twice as much per hour this year.
Also, I don’t know if it is still on the market but the house next door was on the market in the low 400s as a short sale or foreclosure. It looked interesting too
Jennifer, you have a very young child that clearly needs constant parenting so your decision is very logical. I am not sure high school kids need a mummy at home : )
Normally I would have gone back to work after 3 months but my son had a medical situation that required a lot of time with various doctors and surgeons that has now been taken care of.
Wow I just realized the older one will be in college when the younger one starts high school. Eek!
Groove,
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Oak-Park/335-Clinton-Ave-60302/home/13270963
I am so sorry you had to deal with such a stressful situation. Your husband is very lucky. I bet when your kids are a bit older, they would be so proud to have a kick ass mummy like you. Oh I wish we lived close by and I could get help and advice from you.
this came today and I thought of Groove too
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/6318-N-Melvina-Ave-60646/home/13511837
“Basically the husband was making 500-800k and the wife was making 50-90k.”
The example had a couple collectively making $150k, which is more or less a middle class couple in the Chicago area. Your command of logic is terrible.
miumiu, I’m just knocking down your strawman and demonstrating that it makes no sense to most people. I understand that it’s not all about the money, but it’s hard for me to believe that, given the choice between financially equivalent options of working all day or spending time with their kids that people would choose the former. Sending children to expensive private schools and daycares is primarily the province of the upper class. Sure, the upper middle class does it, but it’s relatively rare. The point is that children’s education need not be a Social Climbing Scouts badge and that, like several others have said, there are plenty of ways to raise children in Chicago on middle class salaries.
I’m not knocking moving to the suburbs for the quality of the schools or just because you like it, but the refrain of how the ONLY APPROPRIATE SCHOOL FOR MY CHILD IS EITHER IN THE SUBURBS OR SUPER EXPENSIVE is mostly conspicuous consumption.
“The example had a couple collectively making $150k, which is more or less a middle class couple in the Chicago area. Your command of logic is terrible.”
Your command of anything intelligent is terrible!!! Obviously you are unable to understand the point I was trying to make: the actual amount of combined salary is not important – my point was that even if the husband (or wife) makes a tremendous amount of money and a lot more than the Sig. other, there is still value in the s.o. keeping some type of job, etc.
“So why then does it cost more to live in tract 071500 than tract 060300?”
Because people don’t bother to ask about the crime rate in one of the “best” neighborhoods? Who knows.
But that makes Southport a much better deal. Good school, less crime, less congested, can walk to the Music Box. What else does anyone need? Oh- better public transport too (brown line is far superior to the buses in ELP.)
Thanks Miumiu. When are you due anyway?
I am 33 weeks. I think it can come any time between 37 and 42 weeks, right?
But my doctor told me with the first kid later is more likely. I am getting so impatient though. My doctor, although a great guy, is getting on my nerve telling me this is such an easy pregnancy and all. I wanted to tell him, easy for you, not like you are going to go through it ever. Also I am not sure what he was expecting?…lol…Actually he is very nice, I am just not a patient person by nature : )
BTW, something embarrassing, I thought it takes 9 month so I was shocked when I discovered it takes nearly 10. The other day when Ze was joking about popping out kids in 7 month, I wanted to say if someone can do that she is my hero!
Sure JJJ, I can understand and respect your point, but all I am saying is not all people are the same. I think Clio is trying to say the same thing as well. There are some women who love to be stay at home and be provided for (some men too, I am sure), but not all.
I was the same first time around. She was 10 days late, imagine that! But life is easier while they’re still in there, as much as you are over being pregnant, you’ll miss the quiet soon enough…Also they say late babies are more intelligent!
“Also they say late babies are more intelligent!”
I was two weeks late (42 weeks) but my mom always told me it was because I was so scared of the world – now I know the truth!!!
Me too, my mom had to get induced and finally I was a C-section baby and I was nearly 5 Kg! Poor my mom! Apparently I was pretty tall 54 cm.
In the $150K example, there are some women that may still work because they may carry the better health insurance or they have a government job and may have seniority or a pension coming (if solvency is still there) and they don’t want to drop out. This whole idea that women want to work, is mostly BS for the vast majority. Who are we kidding, women don’t want to wait tables, or continue to sit in a cubicle while they are 5 months pregnant, nor are they happy with 6 weeks of maternity leave (or is it 12?, whatever it’s always too short for any SANE woman).
yeah this feminism thing really has worked out well for America, here we are in the 21st century and where do we stand? The US Supreme Court is hearing a case involving 1.5 million women suing Walmart. Gee, some progress ladies! WTF? where are these women that would rather work 45 hours a week and commute another 10? Myth. Most would rather not.
Congrats miumiu.
33 weeks is pretty far along! You’re right that the first pregnancy sometimes takes a few days to a week longer than typically expected. Don’t let them talk you into inducing if you don’t feel ready, it’s a bad habit that OB’s have nowadays. =)
This talk about supply drying up is a joke. 15% of homes in the U.S. are vacant! That’s 1 out of 8. The average person getting foreclosed hasn’t made a payment in 17 months. There are undoubtedly plenty who haven’t made a payment in 30 months. And keep in mind even after a foreclosure that doesn’t mean the former “owner” can’t continue to live there for who knows how long without a payment. Imagine where prices would be if 1 out of every 8 homes in existence hit the MLS. Unlike precious metals or diamonds you can’t just put homes in a safe and not loose money. RE wears out. Improvements become outdated, stuff falls apart, regular endless maintenance expense is required. Oh and there is that little matter of taxes. The point is somebody somewhere is paying for those MILLIONS of vacant homes. That somebody will eventually be compelled to sell or rent. Along with the others who become compelled to sell for natural reasons (downsizing, job change, etc.) When a very significant percentage of the entire housing stock is being held off the market, the only logical conclusion is that today’s prices are grossly artificially inflated. Does anyone else just look at some of the asking prices and just laugh?
@Clio “[…don’t hunt for a deal, price doesn’t really matter, blah blah…] Sounds a lot like the “now is the best time to buy” mantra that every agent was singing in 2006.
Errr…15%. 1 out of 7 homes is vacant, even worse.
“@Clio “[…don’t hunt for a deal, price doesn’t really matter, blah blah…] Sounds a lot like the “now is the best time to buy” mantra that every agent was singing in 2006.”
uhhh.. that’s because it is….
uhhh.. That’s because u are a realtor.
Thanks Riz. I know. I am trying to go all drug free, but unfortunately it is hard in US.
clio on April 21st, 2011 at 6:30 am
“Seriously, if you look at all the doom and gloom that Sabrina picks, you would expect that there are tremendous deals out there”
——–/—
yes Clio, there are deals. 2/2’s in river north aren’t 400k plus anymore. So yes, there are deals out there.
“But that makes Southport a much better deal. Good school, less crime, less congested, can walk to the Music Box. What else does anyone need? Oh- better public transport too (brown line is far superior to the buses in ELP.)”
What school?
And in addition to the fact that it’s not even within walking distance to the park/lakefront (and what a long haul it is to get on LSD), Southport doesn’t seem so hot in terms of transportation into the Loop. I nearly rented a place a few years ago right around the Southport/LP boundary, and the Brown line didn’t seem too promising.
Personally, I find the buses in Chicago to be clean and, in the winter, warm, and in the summer, cool, plus they don’t entail clambering a filthy stairwell and back. Having ridden the NYC subway for a couple of years, I cannot imagine riding the el on a regular basis. This morning, I walked about a block (mostly through the park), and got on the 156 (on which I always get a seat) at about 8:30. I was sitting at my desk by 9 (the ride took no more than 25 minutes).
“Groove,
I agree with your philosophy, that is why I say good luck. I’ve never actually gone to see that house but it looked good in the listing when priced much higher. I never ended up going because I figured it had to have something really wrong with it to not have sold yet. Please let us know about it Sunday!”
that philosophy is used in all areas of my life. would have never met or married my wife if i didnt go by it.
one thing with the swing low approach is you need patience and a understanding you owe nothing to the seller or seller agent. the down side is many homes will pass you by, so dont fall in love with one, there will be another and if that one doesnt work out, there will be another. eventually one will stick and your pocketbook will love you for it 🙂
Brad – out of those vacant 15 percent, 14.5 percent are crap. The supply of good properties is drying up whereas crappy props will continue to pile up.
Completely agree with A-fed. Almost everything in the market these days is either falling down or has some ridiculous special or just sky high assessment. Or you can’t finance it.
“Suburbs with great schools and decently priced houses include Lake Zurich, Buffalo Grove, Arlington Heights – if you look around you can find places with fairly low taxes in these towns that are still zoned for the better schools”
but those schools in those areas dont fall into you 90% range?
i agree they are nice places and alrington heights (the good side) is so underrated. buffalo groove is bit to bland for me, and i still can never spell or pronounce asptasick road correctly.
“I also agree however that it’s sometimes more fiscally advantageous for one parent to stay home these days. ”
a good daycare running 350-400 a week and a good nanny running 15-18 and hour.
its a no brainer that the one whos job has larger negatives should stay home. unfortunately i wasnt the one to get to stay home.
benj, 335 clinton is a short sale, i havent had first hand with shorts but a good buddy did get a short after a 9-10 ordeal.
if the headaches he went through are standard for shorts, i will pass.
does look like a sweet place if all is sound.
old frame houses, especially victorians are a maintenance nightmare, be prepared for hard work or to write many checks. just a heads up.
db,
that melvina place has been on and off the market for a while, JW even refered me to it once when bid on the house on the course there.
its to pricey for me considering all the work need.
it will get a bungalow lover to appreciate it and its price.
“The supply of good properties is drying up whereas crappy props will continue to pile up.”
What’s with this latest myth? Is that supposed to explain the lack of sales activity? There are currently 693 condos not under contract in LP, 1101 in LV, and 1837 on the Near North Side. Who believes there isn’t a large inventory of good properties available?
The truth is simple: The prices are still too high.
Hey G, out of those 693 condos, please show me the ones that meet the Unicorn Criteria (2/2.5; w/d; central air; garage; Lincoln elem; east of Halsted, but preferably east of Lincoln, and optimally east of Clark; kitchen/dining area seperate from living room; a (small) private outdoor space; and, unless it’s concrete slab flooring, it should be top floor, though this last one isn’t a dealbreaker; price: no more than $3k/mo all in). Thanks.
Groove, the most obvious question is whether the short sale price is already approved. The short sales I have analyzed recently also tell me to look for whether or not a foreclosure has been filed. There is a low % of short sale closings without a lis pendens recorded. This makes sense since why would the bank move it along if they are still getting paid? The areas I’ve looked at indicate that if a ss is gonna close, contract to close is typically around 3-4 months. REO sales have outnumbered SS in Chicago by about 3 to 1 recently. However, March saw it drop to about 2.5 to 1. This might indicate that the banks are approving more of them quickly, but I want to see some more months of data to conclude that.
anonny, Why? You apparently already agree with me that prices are too high if you can’t find your unicorn at $3k/month. Can you show me any that sold for more since your purchase?
“Can you show me any that sold for more since your purchase?”
All I know is that I can’t show you any that sold for less.
Not the first time we’ve see a limit to your knowledge, either. Let us know when you find whatever.
“So why then does it cost more to live in tract 071500 than tract 060300?”
Because the best parts of the city are walking distance or a quick taxi/CTA ride away (park, lakefront, zoo, shopping, loop,etc).
And I question those crime stats… Are we talking about petty theft
or violent crimes? As a resident, I find it hard to believe that ELP is comparable to Englewood.
G, is English your first language?
Hold on, you two! You’re saying there appears to be available supply, potential customers, but low sales volume? And that there is slow, beleaguered and incremental movement upwards in sales volume, with concurrent slow, beleaguered and incremental movement downwards in prices?
This is shocking! Please call Paul Samuelson immediately!
Rngirl: Be careful, you’re rocking the boat. CC is populated mostly by folks who think that the nicest, most expensive areas in the city are for suckers. If only resentment and envy could be monetized, they’d finally have a down payment for the almighty SFH.
Resentment and envy? Hardly. Just tired of LP cheerleaders thinking that the entirety of the City revolves around one neighborhood. It’s a neighborhood in Chicago that’s not worth the premium paid for it.
Lol anonny. Lots of haters… It must be the weather. We should all move…
“Just tired of LP cheerleaders thinking that the entirety of the City revolves around one neighborhood. It’s a neighborhood in Chicago that’s not worth the premium paid for it.”
What is it about LP that so stirs the emotions of folks who don’t want to live there? Again, you don’t see any LP residents on here obsessing over other areas, yet LP is by far the hottest lightning rod when it comes to the discussions on here.
“G, is English your first language?”
Nope, Chicago-ese. Whatdafuksittoyoo, anyways? I could switch to your native db-ese if you’re not following me.
Did you read what I typed? Never said anything about not wanting to live there. I said it’s not worth the price paid for it.
“db-ese” That’s actually a pretty good one.
annony… Honestly my opinion of LP, because of CC, is much higher than it was when i lived in chicago… As for weather.. Down here in the favela, around 85 and sunny.
“Hey G, out of those 693 condos, please show me the ones that meet the Unicorn Criteria (2/2.5; w/d; central air; garage; Lincoln elem; east of Halsted, but preferably east of Lincoln, and optimally east of Clark; kitchen/dining area seperate from living room; a (small) private outdoor space; and, unless it’s concrete slab flooring, it should be top floor, though this last one isn’t a dealbreaker; price: no more than $3k/mo all in). Thanks.”
Anonny: this is your definition of “good” but not everyone else’s. Many of us prefer other neighborhoods and can easily find rentals that are cheaper than buying. So many of us are renting and enjoying our nice neighborhoods without having to worry about falling prices etc.
I see great properties every day all over the GZ running this site. In fact, I write about many of them and they continue to sit there not selling. In fact, many of those are IN your targeted neighborhood.
So clearly- those looking to rent for $3,000 aren’t too concerned they’re not finding anything. Sounds like they’re simply renting in another neighborhood (because sales are not flying off the shelf in your “dream” neighborhood east of halsted.)
If all buyers did your same calculations (and wanted your same criteria) there would be no inventory of those properties for sale in ELP.
5 day forecast for Brazil is for 90! tomorrow, then t-storms, t-storms, t-storms. Looks like hot and humid…ugh. But then I hate tropical weather, which is one of the reasons I live in Chicago. Spring is my second favorite season here, after fall. Sweater weather.
“As for weather.. Down here in the favela, around 85 and sunny.”
“So clearly- those looking to rent for $3,000 aren’t too concerned they’re not finding anything. Sounds like they’re simply renting in another neighborhood (because sales are not flying off the shelf in your “dream” neighborhood east of halsted.)”
Not to mention that paying $3k for rent can cover a mortgage for a nice home instead.
G,
thanks for that info, i wish i could have gave it to my buddy for his rodgers park short sale purchase.
the poor guy fell in love with the place and the back and forth, the long waits between, the falling through three times, seemed like too much hassle when so much inventory to chose from.
i will definitely use this info going forward, thank you again
“Groove, the most obvious question is whether the short sale price is already approved. The short sales I have analyzed recently also tell me to look for whether or not a foreclosure has been filed. There is a low % of short sale closings without a lis pendens recorded. This makes sense since why would the bank move it along if they are still getting paid? The areas I’ve looked at indicate that if a ss is gonna close, contract to close is typically around 3-4 months. REO sales have outnumbered SS in Chicago by about 3 to 1 recently. However, March saw it drop to about 2.5 to 1. This might indicate that the banks are approving more of them quickly, but I want to see some more months of data to conclude that.”
“Anonny: this is your definition of “good” but not everyone else’s.”
Groove (and Anonemoose), I wasn’t saying that only properties meeting my Unicorn Criteria are “good.” I was responding to G’s assertion that there are 693 LP condos on the market. That’s a purely quantitative assertion, which, as others have noted, is of limited value. Out of that 693, how many do you think were recent graniteel rehabs out near the river, or up along diversey, right off of North, or jammed onto some run-down DePaul party block? Stats don’t take such locational factors into account…but most buyers (at least those willing to pay a premium to live in the most expensive neighborhoods) do.
I spent a couple of years looking at properties in what Jay would call the “real” LP (which is actually more inclusive than my Unicorn Criteria), as well as ELV. Figures such as those typically posted by G do not reflect the available stock of “good” places in “good” areas.
“That’s a purely quantitative assertion, which, as others have noted, is of limited value.”
Just like ask prices and incomes. Purely “quantitative” assertions, and hence, of limited value. LMAO! I’m beginning to think anonny is another apparition of the shill crowd.
Anonny and the real estate shills/used home salespeople don’t want to talk numbers, and instead resort to calling them things like “quantitative assertions” that are “of limited value” because they know that Chicago condos are in an absolute free fall right now.
January saw a month/month decline of 5.44% in terms of Chicago condo valuations. A year/year decline of 13.88%. Condo valuations are back to 2000 levels and there is no sign of stabilization yet.
We know you and the used home salespeople are scared as all hell if transaction volume grinds to a halt and are pulling every rabbit out of their hats on blogs like these to try to distract potential purchasers from the reality and gravity of the current scenario. This includes things like trying to deflect from the numbers (which reflect how bad it really is).
Howabout this for a non-“quantitative assertion” that might be of more than “limited value”: you’re incredibly stupid if you buy a condo right now and are committing financial suicide.
Looking at the Case-Shiller condo index NSA data, going back to where it starts in 1995, there has never been a month with a larger drop than January 2011 for both month over month (-5.44%) or year over year (-13.88%).
For SA data the story isn’t much different: year over year largest recorded drop in the index (-13.84%). Month over month second largest recorded drop in the index (-3.96%) surpassed only by March 2010’s drop of 4.57%.
Big wonder anonny is trying to shift the topic away from “quantitative” things.
“Out of that 693, how many do you think were recent graniteel rehabs out near the river, or up along diversey, right off of North, or jammed onto some run-down DePaul party block?”
Of course there are a decent number of these. There is a big difference between a 2/2 on Clybourn and one on Arlington. But all 693 are not in undesireable areas. There is, in fact, plenty of inventory.
But you bring up a good point about this market anonny. In a housing boom, people are willing to buy anything (and in any condition) just to get “in”.
But in a housing bust, like we’re in now, only the most pristine properties at the “right” prices are selling. That means if your baths haven’t been upgraded in 10 years- it had better be priced very low to accomodate that (and even then I’ve seen those properties sit on the market.)
Mish has two posts about:
1) “Perhaps even more important than the Jumbo Squeeze is the coming “FHA squeeze”. Enlarged FHA loan size also expires in October.
For example, in Minneapolis, the current FHA max for single family loans is $365,000. On October 1, that reverts back down to about $275,000.”
2) Jumbo squeeze:
“Starting October 1, the maximum loan amount from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will drop from $729,750 to $625,500.”
Below is the text of the bill that becomes law again on 10/1/2011 (stimulus expires):
“In order to stimulate homeownership, the bill permanently increases the conforming loan limit that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can buy from $417,000 or 115 percent of the local area median home price up to $625,500. The loan limit that FHA can insure will be permanently increased from $271,050 or 115 percent of the local area median home price up to $625,500.”
Chicagoland median home price is 183.4k in Q4 2010 according to Realtor dot com. 1.15 * 183.4k = 211k. Is the FHA loan limit for a single family dwelling in Chicagoland going to drop from it’s current 410k to 211k on October 1, 2011?
Methinks this house of cards is about to come crashing down.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-housing-prices-map-html,0,4079778.htmlpage
Look at the home price map. Prices are falling nearly *Everywhere* because prices are too expensive. Read it and weep.
“At best, Chicago-area home prices are bouncing along the bottom or getting less bad as the depreciation rate slows. At worst, they continue in a free fall.
A year of home price changes in some 200 local ZIP codes, provided to the Tribune by housing industry data provider CoreLogic, shows inklings of real appreciation taking hold in some communities in the three months ended in February. But in most others, home prices continued to slide from their year-ago comparisons.
If real estate is indeed location, location, location, there just aren’t a lot of good ones right now.”
* * * * * * * * * * *
“On Chicago’s Northwest Side, in the desirable neighborhoods of Edgebrook, Sauganash and Gladstone Park, year-over-year home prices continued to deteriorate since May. In February, home prices in the 60646 ZIP code were down 20 percent from a year earlier, according to CoreLogic’s data.”
“Agents attribute the drop to the end of the homebuyer tax credit and to sellers who have only recently come to understand the market’s pricing realities.
CoreLogic’s Khater worries of the effect of continued price declines on homeowners who owe more on their mortgage than the home is worth, life’s uncertainties and what that may mean for additional home price declines.
“If prices remain subdued, negative equity will weigh like an anchor on this,” he said. “Those people will continue to pay. The problem is they’re vulnerable. If there’s any kind of income shock, any big medical expense, divorce or job loss, it could possibly tip them into default.”
I won’t hold it against anyone if you recant your bottom call within the next 24 hours.
“On Chicago’s Northwest Side, in the desirable neighborhoods of Edgebrook, Sauganash and Gladstone Park, year-over-year home prices continued to deteriorate since May. In February, home prices in the 60646 ZIP code were down 20 percent from a year earlier, according to CoreLogic’s data.”
Yes, there’s been a big, and prolonged, decline in prices, pretty much everywhere. But perhaps what’s STILL happening, to the extent the doom is far from over, is that we’re seeing an adjustment to the term “desirable” as it is used in the quote above. Are those areas nice enough places to live? I imagine they are (I’ll have to take your word for it). But should they have gotten bubbled-up?
When it comes to “desirable” areas, I think of an area in which someone says “I want to live in X location, and here’s what I can afford.” The type of unit is secondary. In areas that perhaps do not meet the definition of “desirable,” the prospective resident says “I want X type of home, and here’s what I can afford.” There, the type of unit is the primary concern.
Maybe we’re finally seeing a return to the three L’s.
so annony… Are you saying that your area deserved to move in a correlated way with everything else that got bubbled up BUT consequently doesn’t deserve to have some of that premium removed?
And yes i will accept without argument thaat Dans blade runner theory works well in your favor. But if u see stuff on Mich Ave falling u will to because it’s a great alternative. To me it’s my #1 choice by quite some distance.
I would rather live in down town, Gold Coast, and SL over LP any day. I don’t like part of LP which is further away from the lake and the part close to lake is really only accessible trough LSD. It takes for ever to make it to I-90. Also while smaller streets are charming, I don’t like the neighborhood feel of LP all that much.
What I am trying to say people might really like LP for their family if the schools are much better than Gold coast, SL and down town, but the area itself is not half as beautiful to me as say Gold coast. I also like the residents in GC much better. I just am not into the whole baseball cap and fleece look. If I had a lot more money, I would live in GC, now that I cannot I will go for down town or SL.
Also, you bottom callers share the same sentiment as the seller in Homer Glen. He also thinks it is the bottom, but he can’t lower his price too much, because, ‘he can’t just give it away.’
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-0424-housing-prices-20110424,0,1492408.story
“In Homer Glen, Steve Brown is waiting for that one special buyer to emerge from his or her bunker. Brown tried to sell his custom-built home last fall, but the only offer he was received was for $370,000, more than $70,000 less than his listing price for the well-appointed home with its own private pond.
Now he’s trying again, dropping the price by $6,000, to $436,500. “People are starting to inquire again,” Brown said. “I know I can sell it easily if I reduce the price to $400,000. My gut reaction is we’ve hit bottom, but I’m not willing to give it away.”
See for yourself:
http://chicago.curbed.com/archives/2010/11/03/want-to-get-out-of-the-city-try-this-homer-glen-hideout.php#reader_comments
I’m going to do a post on this story tomrrow- but feel free to discuss it today. The Core Logic data is fascinating and clearly shows the double dip (even in the zip codes that were “holding up” as of last fall.)
Question is- what will March, April and May data show?
“Now he’s trying again, dropping the price by $6,000, to $436,500. “People are starting to inquire again,” Brown said. “I know I can sell it easily if I reduce the price to $400,000. My gut reaction is we’ve hit bottom, but I’m not willing to give it away.”
He won’t be giving it away. The bank will be giving his neighbor who got forclosed on’s comparable unit away.
“I would rather live in down town, Gold Coast, and SL over LP any day.”
miumiu, aren’t you about to have a baby? If so, (i) congrats!, (ii) good luck, and (iii) I’ll be curious to see how you feel about the SL once you’ve got a kid.
As for the “Gold Coast,” I guess it all depends how you personally define it. Me, I’d love to live between North and Goethe and between Dearborn and Astor. But that’s about it. I would submit that those are the nicest streets in the GC, and perhaps the city. And for the most part, in what ward are they? 43. I wonder why?
“between North and Goethe and between Dearborn and Astor.”
My wife used to refer to that area as mausoleum row.. All old people waiting to die.
That will be interesting to see anonny. One thing I have learnt in life, is to never say never. I might be surprised with how everything changes.
Ze, I love old people. Actually I used to be a member of a bridge club and loved hanging out with old people. They are comfortable with themselves, have had interesting experiences and the ones in GC are quite classy. I love the old ladies in their fur coats in the winter with their red or pink lip sticks on their thin wrinkled lips. Or the old gentlemen with their watery kind eyes with their well groomed hair (or bald heads…lol) who smile at you. They are just adorable!
Miumiu it occurred to me today that if you are planning to have your child attend private school as well as continue working, it might be better to consider living closer to the schools you are thinking of.
True Jennifer, but we live in a small town so there is not much of traffic going on and things are close by. Actually I have no idea about the schools here. I have to ask my friends and colleagues who have kids already and unlike me know what they are doing : )
This would be great if prices fell another 10%. Yes there would be more foreclosures, but the next generation of buyers would get into the market at more reasonable and sustainable prices, and in 5-7 years it would be back to normal. It’s funny all the people out there, and the shill-type of posters are all saying the recovery has already started. In addition, the Illinois realtors data seems to be skewed compared to this data – so who is right?
I find it interesting Saganash had such a large price drop.
It’s interesting but not all that unexpected that Sag had a price drop. The housing stock is nice but extremely dated. many homes listed are grandma and grandpas – it needs a new kitchen, the bathrooms are pink, the walls are plaster, there is only one bathroom and the price is listed for $500,000. I see it’s fallen 20% but that just takes the prices from $500,000 to $400,000 and even at $400,000 it’s probably got another 25% to 33% to fall to get into a range where the next generation of buyers can buy and renovate the house without being stuck in the 1960’s until 2020.
“I find it interesting Saganash had such a large price drop.”
“it’s probably got another 25% to 33% to fall to get into a range where the next generation of buyers can buy and renovate the house without being stuck in the 1960’s until 2020. ”
Try 50-60+% for areas like this.
Grandma and grandpa areas aren’t going to be appealing to younger types in 2010-2020, so instead they’re gunning for the 40+ crowd currently. This older housing stock is not going to be appealing to the 40+ crowd at all for a number of reasons, as much to do with life stage issues as with city issues.
Grandma and grandpa can pay whatever property taxes they are levied (until they qualify for the senior exemption) and actually believe the assessed value is close to the market value. Good for them.
Truth is when turkey SFHs renovated within the past 15 years in non-GZ hoods like this are selling for 350k it means SFHs that haven’t been rehabbed in 20 years will be lucky to get 200k, not 400-500k.
The myth of Chicago lot property values in nabes like these is set to be busted: the emperor has no clothes. It was all smoke and mirrors.
There are fewer private sector jobs in 2011 vs. 2001. They pay less. Do not pass go, do not collect $200. But nonetheless thank you for your property taxes to feed the machine.
“where the next generation of buyers can buy and renovate the house without being stuck in the 1960’s until 2020.”
Next generation cannot buy and renovate. They have less money, more debt, and are restricted to 203(b) loans. Remember this isn’t the greenzone where there is an ample supply of out of state or suburbs money feeding the transplants for a walk to everything lifestyle.
Much like most of Chicago Sauganash is an everyday neighborhood for everyday people. When people that can afford the outlandish boom property values brought on by the bubble in nabes like this are either city insiders or higher powered attorneys and stockbrokers you know something has to give.
Ask yourself if funny mortgages never occurred: would these professionals choose to live in this area out of any sort of attraction to it? Or instead perhaps did they migrate there merely because of being priced out of primer areas due to the housing bubble?
Methinks it’s the former and places like Sauganash are literally dead in the water.
I’m already seeing it in other non-GZ hoods HD: it should come as no surprise. If the nabes aren’t competing for the mating dance of Chads & Trixies (or Chets & Aylas in Wicker Park/Bucktown) and aren’t close to downtown they’re F’d beyond belief. Trust me.
I don’t know if sauganash is considered that low Bob. I see it falling another 10%, but probably not more than 15% overall. It’s not like all the homes are unrenovated there. This housing bubble bursting is pitting the generations against eachother and will get more and more attention in the media soon. It’s sad the IAR is “cooking their books” to try to spur buyer interest in the market.