Market Conditions: Cook County February Foreclosures Surge Year Over Year

Realty Trac is reporting that Cook County foreclosures soared 51% in February compared to February of a year ago.

“In Cook County last month, 3,106 mortgage holders were notified that their properties had fallen into default and foreclosure proceedings had begun. Another 1,894 properties were scheduled for court-supervised auction while 2,045 became bank-owned. That level of activity was a drop of 17 percent from January but 51 percent greater than February 2011.”

Cook County includes more than just Chicago, of course. But Realty Trac doesn’t parse out the city versus the other towns in the county so we’ll have to go with the county data.

Last year, there was a delay in foreclosure filings due to the robosigning debacle and negotiations between the banks and various state attorney generals.

Realty Trac and other analysts have been warning that foreclosures would pick up again in 2012.

REOs and short sales made up just more than half the sales in Chicago in February.

Can you have a market “bottom” when REOs/short sales make up such a big percentage of sales?

Chicago-area foreclosures jump 42% in February [Chicago Tribune, Mary Ellen Podmolik, March 15, 2012]

200 Responses to “Market Conditions: Cook County February Foreclosures Surge Year Over Year”

  1. “Can you have a market “bottom” when REOs/short sales make up such a big percentage of sales?”

    Of course. For the same reason that the % of foreclosure sales at the top is so low. It really isn’t that complicated.

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  2. I just posted on this yesterday and showed the long term trend: http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2012/03/chicago-foreclosure-activity-down-18-in-february/ It’s actually down 18% from January. Although, there has been an upward trend in the last 7 months, comparing the numbers to last year are kind of meaningless because there really is no seasonality to this. There are also huge month to month variations as you can see from the data.

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  3. If someone were trying to get their banks attention so they could get a loan modification and did not pay their mortgage for a while, would the bank still file a LIS PENDENS FORECLOSURE or would it never get to that point if the owner asked for a modification or refi?

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  4. Icarus: I tell people that if they stop paying their mortgage, they have to expect that they’ll eventually lose it in foreclosure. The loan mods only lower your monthly payment, but they usually increase the principal balance and also extend the mortgage. They’re a bad deal for everyone but tehre’s pressure to ‘keep people in their homes’ and these awful loan mods are ad hoc solutions.

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  5. “Of course. For the same reason that the % of foreclosure sales at the top is so low. It really isn’t that complicated.”

    You’re the genius chuk. Not me.

    I think we’ve seen a sort-of bottom in the neighborhoods that have been ravaged for years (mainly those outside of the GZ.) The condos that have sold for $20,000 in the last 3 years aren’t going to go lower (and, if Milkster’s anecdotal stories are any indication- they are going higher as more investors jump into the fray.) The rehabbers are also buying up all the shacks- which helps the neighborhoods.

    Inside the GZ, I think we have several more years to go as foreclosures/short sales continue to ramp up in those areas. That will pressure prices for several more years. I think the Lakeview condon market is just going to get crushed in the next few years because they overbuilt during the boom. There just aren’t enough buyers for those 2/2s and too many of the current owners are underwater. Further price pressure is inevitable.

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  6. Another anecdotal story- a few of my friends have been living in a west loop condo for a few years. Their former landlord stopped paying over 3 years ago. They were paying rent to the association for the last year (so the association could pay the assessments etc.) But it was WAY below market rent for a similar unit. So they’ve been able to save some money in the meantime.

    The bank finally took possession right around the new year and then took 3 months before notifying them they were kicking them out. So the bank is finally going to re-sell it.

    It’s amazing to me that it’s taking this long for the bank to finally take possession and to re-list it. Their building is a midrise. There have been plenty of foreclosures in it already. I think the bank just really didn’t want to deal with what would be the inevitable loss on their books. But they haven’t seen any money in 3 years!

    How many more units are like this all around the city? Tons.

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  7. HD, thanks for the response. Follow up questions, are you only seeing the ones that fail because your law firm only see those, or are any attempts successful? Is the failure because they are so badly designed or once a person goes down the path of foreclosure — say brought on by job loss and/big medical bills — they get into a hole too deep to get out of ?

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  8. My anecdotal story: my friends who stopped paying rent to landlord because he would not maintain property/keep it up to code about a year ago were visited by Fannie Mae reps this week letting them know landlord lost the place and offering them a bribe in amount of security deposit to vacate within three months. I told them to hold out for more $$$. And we don’t believe landlord made a mortgage payment in years (lis pendens filed early 2010). Property is solidly GZ and a teardown.

    Bank & Fannie likely took no action on repossession for the majority of the current administration. Extend & pretend, indeed.

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  9. I lost my investment condo to foreclosure last month. Freddie Mac through Chase. Took 3 years start to finish. $400,000 purchase price, not one bidder at $160,000, even though rental rate is $1800/mo. LV location, Mccrap box built in 2006. Multiple code violations, small association never authorized reserve study, 50% of units rented out. This unit will be vacant forever-even if given away, who wants the liability of tenant safety, pay taxes, pay special assessments, etc. Every unit is underwater by minimum $100k. This scenario will be played out for years to come.

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  10. Santorum Surge!

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  11. Change the sheets!

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  12. Another anecdote. A townhouse across the street from my friend was owned by an old lady hoarder. She died. There was no equity in the house. Her son isn’t interested in cleaning the house and since she had nothing left in her estate, he saw no reason to have anything to do with the house. The bank doesn’t want to deal with it, so it’s just sitting, filled with junk and probably a fire hazard. It’s been years and I don’t think the bank has officially foreclosed even though the owner has died.

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  13. “There just aren’t enough buyers for those 2/2s and too many of the current owners are underwater. Further price pressure is inevitable.”

    I didn’t insist we are at the bottom now. But just that when we are at the bottom, there will be a huge % of sales that are foreclosures/short sales.

    “You’re the genius chuk. Not me.”

    I don’t get it. Are you arguing there will be a SMALL % of foreclosures/short sales at the bottom? You do agree that the market will bottom at SOME point, right? When that does happen, even if it is 10 years from now, what do you think the mix will be like?

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  14. Gail: in such a scenario, I’d think a well capitalized investor would be all over that building. Buy all the units, hold it a year until the renters are gone, fix the (probably minor) violations, relist at much higher prices with a new association.

    Speaking of “snapping up” units in a single building, WTF is going on here:

    http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/735-W-Brompton-Ave-60657/unit-1E/home/40316475

    Three units under contract yesterday. Two more units listed as new. It looks like new construction. Even given this early spring jump in activity, I find the amount of activity here suspicious.

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  15. “Can you have a market “bottom” when REOs/short sales make up such a big percentage of sales?”

    I’m not sure you are asking the right question. To me, it is pretty obvious that were will be a big percentage of distress sales at “the bottom”. The real question is how much higher will that % go than where it is now? Quite frankly, I’m surprised its not closer to 100% now, and it may very well need to go higher.

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  16. Icarus: I see lots and lots of stuff due to the nature of my job. I’ve yet to see a ‘good’ loan mod that actually helps the borrower. Most of the time the deferred principal balance is what has accrued as late fees and interest over the year so the interest bearing principal balance is really just same as it was before.

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  17. gringozecarioca on March 16th, 2012 at 10:09 am

    I thought someone said they answered this yesterday? :-)

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  18. “Can you have a market “bottom” when REOs/short sales make up such a big percentage of sales?”

    “Of course. For the same reason that the % of foreclosure sales at the top is so low. It really isn’t that complicated.”

    Hypothetically speaking, you are correct, of course. However, Chicago contract, sales and foreclosure pipeline data suggest that even more short sales/foreclosure sales are on the horizon and the bottom is not here.

    “I think we’ve seen a sort-of bottom in the neighborhoods that have been ravaged for years (mainly those outside of the GZ.)”

    That is possibly true for areas such as Roseland and Englewood. However, not so much for the non GZ areas commonly discussed on CC. The GZ areas have 2-3 year supplies of properties already in the foreclosure pipeline (based on 2010-2011 SS/foreclosure sale rates) to go along with the currently increasing number of new filings. Albany Park is ~2-3 year supply, Irving Park 3-4 years, and Avondale 5-6 years.

    Either this goes on for several more years, or there will be many more short sales/foreclosure sales in the near future. Or, the market turns the corner due to all of the pay raises and higher paying job opportunities that are being created. This would result in 93% of those who lost jobs in the Great Recession soon earning equal or more in their new jobs, as opposed to the current figure of 7%. Or, golden skittle crapping unicorns gather over our fair city and shower us with their riches. I guess we’ll wait and see…

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  19. “However, Chicago contract, sales and foreclosure pipeline data suggest that even more short sales/foreclosure sales are on the horizon and the bottom is not here.”

    Sure, never said otherwise.

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  20. “Sure, never said otherwise.”

    Sure, as I never said you said otherwise.

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  21. I could not agree more with homedelete. I represent homeowners in foreclosure in Cook County and have seen hundreds of loan modification offers, most of which my clients accepted. They are all bum deals even under the government-backed programs. Even though you usually see a better interest rate, the term of the loan is nearly always extended (often to 40 years), the principal balance increased dramatically, and half of them have some ridiculous balloon payment on the end that will force the homeowners to refi at the end of their mortgage (if they manage to live that long). In two years I have only ever seen one mod that forgave principal, and I honestly think it was due to an error in the bank’s system rather than a true intent to forgive the debt. None of the people accepting these loan mods will ever pay off their homes. The mods are just a band-aid to delay the inevitable and keep people in the places where they are currently living. I tell the clients they really need to look at it as if they are renting their own homes. Most end up taking it just because they can’t rent a place of similar size for any less money.

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  22. “Change the sheets!”
    I had this boss back in 2007 and every day for awhile I’d come in and say “Hi, how’s it going?” and he’d say “The market’s shitting the bed, how do you think it’s going?” And I’d be like “Thanks! Thanks for that graphic first thing in the morning!”

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  23. Personally I’m less interested in the macro, aggregate, theoretical, ‘bottom’ and more interested in what is going on with the neighborhoods and property types that I am actually trying to purchase. I’ve been bidding and can’t catch a break. I’m not going to bid more than what makes sense with my (known) rehab numbers. I’m getting outbid by homeowners who can afford to pay more because it is financed or investors who can do a cheaper job. Many great foreclosures are Homepath properties, which send investors to the back of the line.
    Certain property types in certain neighborhoods, are not going to get any cheaper.

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  24. My anecdote: I don’t know any deadbeats that went into forclosure, I think most of my friends are “bear market geniuses” and lucked out by not having any money, income or credit pre 2009 and the few that did buy during the bubble managed to hang on to their properties or rent them out at a small loss. Also I only know like 2 people that lost their jobs involuntarily during the great recession and only one of them owned at the time.

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  25. “Certain property types in certain neighborhoods, are not going to get any cheaper.”

    Could you provide specific examples of sales that you believe were at the bottom?

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  26. dahlia, I’m seriously interested in some examples. How about you other bottom callers? You must have examples of specific sales at the bottom if you believe it has passed. Let’s start a list for future reference.

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  27. Actually I take that back, I do know one guy who levered up 100% financed about a million bucks on some properties in Florida on a 65k income, but he never was forclosed on, he just filed chapter 7 BK

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  28. “Three units under contract yesterday. Two more units listed as new. It looks like new construction. Even given this early spring jump in activity, I find the amount of activity here suspicious.”

    That was one of the $750k+ less than 2 bath sales from last year. They may have sold some of the units during construction, and then listed them all for whatever-reason-you-do-that when the building was done. Not per se hinkey.

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  29. dahliachi: been there. We eventually gave up. The properties we were bidding on weren’t even that great and were going to be a lot of work and rehab investment, though they were very cheap. They’d get bid up to the point where it didn’t make financial sense to us anymore, so we’d move on to the next. Lost two properties that way, probably to investors or homebuilders (though we’ll see when they close).

    In the end, we decided that this type of project was going to be a 15+ plus investment and we just didn’t know if we wanted to commit to something like that. We didn’t even know if we’d be in Chicago that long, to be honest. So we decided to buy a large condo with a 6-9 year timeframe. The costs were more fixed, the initial living situation is much better and it will give us more than enough room for the foreseeable future.

    We were defeated, but ended up quite happy. :)

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  30. Gail-

    I have now met the ‘problem’, and you are it.

    You describe the property as a POS, yet you (um, your former bank) paid $400k for said POS, when it’s worth maybe 1/3 of that? Whatsmore you presumably collested years of rent while in default.

    I kinda want to puke. Big middle finger to you.

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  31. “the bottom is not here”

    “examples of specific sales at the bottom”

    How are we defining “the bottom”? Nominal or real dollars? Just for (marginally) livable properties, or gutted units count (and if so, do we need to include a basic buildout cost to compare)? Are we limiting it to parts of town CC acknowledges, or do “scary” places count, too?

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  32. G-
    Bell ( NorthCenter) brick two flats on normal lots( ie they have a garage), east of Western, not on a busy street. I’m too lazy to comb through all of the numbers, but I have not seen any bargains. They all seem to sell for close 470- 500k, even if in poor condition.

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  33. Also want to say, if a two flat in Roseland is priced at 5k, how much further can it go down before the seller is paying buyer to buy?

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  34. “Another anecdote. A townhouse across the street from my friend was owned by an old lady hoarder. She died. There was no equity in the house. Her son isn’t interested in cleaning the house and since she had nothing left in her estate, he saw no reason to have anything to do with the house. The bank doesn’t want to deal with it, so it’s just sitting, filled with junk and probably a fire hazard. It’s been years and I don’t think the bank has officially foreclosed even though the owner has died.”

    In Chicago? She should report it as an abandoned building. Report it as a fire hazard. Report it as a possible squatter residence. Done enough, and with some coordination with neighbors, and something will get done with it.

    Also, should check on the tax payment status–if everyone is really just ignoring it, it will go to tax sale pretty quickly, and then your friend can have a community garden plot.

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  35. “I kinda want to puke. Big middle finger to you.”

    I agree TB, Gail sounds like a horseshit.

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  36. “Bell ( NorthCenter) brick two flats on normal lots( ie they have a garage), east of Western, not on a busy street. I’m too lazy to comb through all of the numbers, but I have not seen any bargains. They all seem to sell for close 470- 500k, even if in poor condition.”

    Except the one’s on west side of Claremont, dunno where there’s a classic brick two-flat that’s closed below $500k. Cheapest I’ve seen is $515, and that one was torn down.

    Oh, forgot the skinny one on the 25′ lot on Bradley, at $485. And had missed 2323 Addison closing at $300k and 2319 at $325k (which, barring structural/mechanical issues, are decent prices as straight rentals).

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  37. “…do “scary” places count, too?”
    Was in a SFH on the Southside recently with my agent.
    The ground floor was okay.
    It needed work for sure, but had some beautiful original wood details and we thought it had potential.
    So we were poking around with flashlights because there was no electricity.
    Then we entered the basement which had at one point been a separate apartment and almost fell into a large hole.
    Seriously. The foundation was messed up and there was a huge dirt pit in the middle of the basement. Just like in Silence of the Lambs.
    We were like “Let’s get the “F” outta here.”
    And with all of that it still went under contract quickly.

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  38. Thanks, Vlajos.

    And for the record, every person reading this website gets the pleasure of absorbing the loss on her ‘investment ‘ condo because the defaulted loan was backed by Freddie Mac (while she collected cashflow from renting it).

    To the airheads who gave her a “thumbs up” – get real and realize that she basically stole money from you and every other taxpayer.

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  39. Hi All,

    I lurk on here to keep tabs on the Chicago market. I bought a 2/2 high quality new construction in LP in 2007 (yeah, I know, great timing). $515 purchase price, normal loan, 25% down.

    I’ve now presumably lost all of my equity (last appraisal for refi was in 2010 for $450).

    Question for you experts: Do I sell this Spring, knowing I will lose > $100K but under the assumption that the market is going to be ravaged w/ foreclosures & short sales for years to come? In other words, better to lose 100K than 200K+. The money I put into it will obviously not outpace the loss in value. I love my place, but I also don’t want to live there forever either. Would probably (all things being normal) want to move in 2 years to a bigger place.

    I am not underwater and continue to pay my mortgage. All units (3) are occupied with good people and we have a good condo association with good reserves.

    Sorry for the semi highjack of the thread. I’m just a normal responsible home owner that is totally freaked out by all that’s going on around me in this market.

    Thanks in advance for any advice.

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  40. Busy street, Addison always seems to have a back up around there., but I agree good prices.

    “And had missed 2323 Addison closing at $300k and 2319 at $325k (which, barring structural/mechanical issues, are decent prices as straight rentals).”

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  41. “Except the one’s on west side of Claremont, dunno where there’s a classic brick two-flat that’s closed below $500k.”

    Is north of addison a requirement?

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  42. “Cheapest I’ve seen is $515, and that one was torn down.”

    Can’t check right now, but i think 38XX oakley (on west side) was similar price, and not tear down.

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  43. “on west side”

    and by west side i mean east side

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  44. Thanks, TB, for extending a digit indicating your IQ. Lets see, financial decision or moral obligation? When did a contarct become moral or immoral? 400K purchse, 300K owed, (yes, I put down 25%) market price $160K. Hmm…no brainer. Put on the big boy pants, Tuberculosis, and play it for what it is-a losing investment.

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  45. “How are we defining “the bottom”? Nominal or real dollars? Just for (marginally) livable properties, or gutted units count (and if so, do we need to include a basic buildout cost to compare)? Are we limiting it to parts of town CC acknowledges, or do “scary” places count, too?”

    Real dollars. Any properties. Of course, future apples to apples comparisons might require adjustments. No limits on location.

    I just want to start a list of specific bottom calls for future reference. How else to judge if they are correct?

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  46. Vlajos, why would you care? You probably got some type of below-rate minority financing under CRA regs……

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  47. “To the airheads who gave her a “thumbs up” – get real and realize that she basically stole money from you and every other taxpayer.”

    If the govt wasn’t in the mortgage business, it wouldn’t be our money. I’m curious how she stole anything when it was the lender who was rewarded with the tax dollars?

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  48. Is north of addison a requirement?
    yes

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  49. “Busy street, Addison always seems to have a back up around there”

    Yeah, so not for sfh conversion. But decent buy’n’hold rentals, as-is.

    “Is north of addison a requirement?”

    You’re going to bust me for the two on the east side of Claremont from 2 and 3 years ago that sold for $480 and $495, aren’t you? I’m assuming D meant hard Bell boundary, plus “east of Western” excluding *on* Western.

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  50. “Also want to say, if a two flat in Roseland is priced at 5k, how much further can it go down before the seller is paying buyer to buy?”

    Let me guess, 100%? So that still leaves from 1%-99%.

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  51. “38XX oakley (on west side) was similar price, and not tear down”

    $511. Yeah, missed that.

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  52. Ah Gail,

    Justify your theft, and financial ineptitude anyway you like. You get the pleasure of living with your own stupidity for the rest of your life. That’s a heavy load to carry, so I understand your bitterness.

    Regards to IQ, my intelligence has so far kept me out of bankruptcy and foreclosure. The same cannot be said of you.

    Nice racial dig on Vlajos, too. Real classy. That’s usually the sign of real intelligence. Not.

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  53. G, Do you know me? Why do you think I’m a minority?

    We need debtors prison again, perfect for Gail.

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  54. “You’re going to bust me for the two on the east side of Claremont from 2 and 3 years ago that sold for $480 and $495, aren’t you?”

    Well, there’s also one under contract now, with a list w/o checking that is under $500 and that did not sell right away, so I’m guessing it will close under $500.

    “hard Bell boundary”

    What exactly is this “hard” Bell boundary? Is this a version of groove’s get to school w/o crossing major st? Is addison major? Is damen?

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  55. Also missed 3829 N Claremont, at $500k.

    “What exactly is this “hard” Bell boundary?”

    I meant the actual attendance boundary, rather than including anything across the street (like 3615 Leavitt, which isn’t brick, but also sold for $220k–38% below 2001 price–on a 25′ lot).

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  56. “Why do you think I’m a minority?”

    Gail must be relying on the unrebutted “accusation” that Vlajos is short for Vladimir Jose (or something). Was that Dan, or Bob?

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  57. “there’s also one under contract now”

    Excluded. West side of Claremont.

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  58. “Real dollars. Any properties. Of course, future apples to apples comparisons might require adjustments. No limits on location. ”

    Real dollars is the killer.

    Yes, I agree that, especially in real dollars, the “scary” parts of the city could very closely approach zero for individual lots, particularly if you consdier the likely expenses/liability of a condemnable structure on it.

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  59. Assuming that Gail put down 25% and ended up in foreclosure in the circumstances she listed, I think TB is way out of line here. Bad investment? Sure. “Stealing from taxpayers?” Huge stretch, IMO. You have no idea whether it was backed by Fannie/Freddie. And if it is a reasonable LV location, the only reason it is having the issues it is would be due to a HOA in crisis and poor financial health of the building.

    The name calling and assumptions are way, way out of line.

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  60. I like Vladimir Jose. Has nothing to do with who I am though.

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  61. I’m sticking to Gail is horseshit. Sorry, TftInChi.

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  62. “G, Do you know me? Why do you think I’m a minority?
    We need debtors prison again, perfect for Gail.”

    That wasn’t me. I just think you aren’t very bright, and addressing me with this question verifies it once again.

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  63. TftInChi-

    You may have a reading comprehension problem.

    1. She told us the loan was Freddie backed. See her original post.

    2. She said it was an investment property. She CHOSE to stop paying on it, despite continuing to rent it, pocketing the rent, while not paying the mortgage. That IS theft.

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  64. Apologies to G, I didn’t type it out fully.

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  65. “She CHOSE to stop paying on it, despite continuing to rent it, pocketing the rent, while not paying the mortgage. That IS theft.”

    Did she actually say that? It doesn’t appear so clear to me. Regardless, it isn’t theft. It’s well within the typical mortgage agreement, from what I understand. If you want this to be considered a theft, you’ll need to get the taxpayers out of guaranteeing mortgages and I’m sure the lenders will lobby to make this illegal asap.

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  66. real dollars makes it a wager that i won’t make

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  67. I forget do we pay for everything in real dollars now?

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  68. I believe Gail made the same miscalculation that many Ivy league trained MBA type investor’s made with much, much higher loan amounts and none of them is worrying about guilt or raised fingers so long as they can settle guarantees for much less than 100% on the dollar. You want her to do time in debtor’s prison?

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  69. Sorry, you are right on the Freddie point. Missed that my first time through. Thanks for the insult, though, asswipe. Totally called for.

    Vlajos: “I’m sticking to Gail is horseshit. Sorry, TftInChi.”

    As in lying? Or you just don’t like what she did?

    Listen, I fall in to the pure capitalist camp when it comes to players acting in their own best interest. Given that in this case we don’t know whether it was rented, or rented for more than the mortgage+tax payments, we don’t really know whether this person even profited on the property. Assuming for a moment that they *weren’t* profiting on the property and they were way, way underwater, why should they keep paying every month? Businesses walk away from their investments all of the time in the name of smart decision making.

    Granted, this person could have been a total dick about this, pocketing rent during 4 years of foreclosure. In which case, I sincerely hope the bank goes after them for every dime they are out, as is their right per the contract. But that’s the whole point here: they entered into a business contract. If walking away and paying the price of breaching that contract makes sense, I say go for it. If they are using shady means to avoid paying the price of the breach, the aggrieved party should take it up with the courts.

    Turning this into a moral argument makes about as much sense as expecting corporations to act in the best interest of the general public.

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  70. TftInChi –
    Hugs to you too. I have no beef with you.

    I understand your pure capitalist theory, but other people (her neighbors/comps) are getting really hurt from actions like this. To take the purely academic approach is to ignore the suffering of decent people who are underwater in their primary residence, stuck, and hoping the pain will end.

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  71. “I understand your pure capitalist theory, but other people (her neighbors/comps) are getting really hurt from actions like this. To take the purely academic approach is to ignore the suffering of decent people who are underwater in their primary residence, stuck, and hoping the pain will end.”

    I agree. And I’m not going to defend the shitty behavior of people who try to skip their obligations without repercussions, though it isn’t exactly clear to me that is what is happening here. But I also think we need to stop feeding those neighbors the line that they have a moral obligation to pay their mortgage and that the American Dream will be lost if they decide to walk away from a financial albatross and join the ranks of renters.

    I think the important question to ask in this case is how an entire building, with separate owners for each unit, got so far under water and in such bad financial shape. I have a hard time pinning that on Gail.

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  72. “I forget do we pay for everything in real dollars now?”

    I wouldn’t expect a typical financial advisor to note the distinction.

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  73. gringozecarioca on March 16th, 2012 at 1:57 pm

    “I wouldn’t expect a typical financial advisor to note the distinction.”

    Nothin but a bunch of pole smokers, nonetheless, very hard to converse in real dollars. Nominal would be standard.

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  74. gringozecarioca on March 16th, 2012 at 1:59 pm

    “To take the purely academic approach is to ignore the suffering of decent people who are underwater in their primary residence, stuck, and hoping the pain will end.”

    They have my permission to ignore me in return.

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  75. “Nominal would be standard.”

    We can discuss both. Now, where are those specific sales that are warranting the bottom calls?

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  76. It was a joke G… you know, the running one here about people paying for things with bushels of wheat and gold bars or 1889 dollars?

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  77. gringozecarioca on March 16th, 2012 at 2:31 pm

    “We can discuss both. Now, where are those specific sales that are warranting the bottom calls?”

    Make it a 3rd.. strip out housing costs from CPi in order not to have a component tracking an imbedded percent of itself, if it is vs. price change of “other” items that you want to compare things to.

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  78. That’s still just 2 in my book. CPI less shelter isn’t a perfect reflection, since that strips out lodging and student housing, too. But, I agree that it is better than plain old CPI and have used it before.

    Still, no bottom of the market sale examples? What’s a bottom call without specifics?

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  79. “It was a joke G”

    As was my reply.

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  80. gringozecarioca on March 16th, 2012 at 5:05 pm

    “Still, no bottom of the market sale examples? What’s a bottom call without specifics?”

    I never made that call in housing. I do suggest increased activity necessitates paying attention to and waking up a bit. Something is happening.. or trying to happen… then again many 80 yr old men probably think the same thing when they look at their dick. Time will tell.

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  81. TB is such a douche. Nowhere did I say the palce was rented-because it never was. It was an “investment” as a second residence. It was never rented because I hired a structural engineer, since the asshole HOA wouldn’t and was told the building was unsafe. So fu and your erroneous assumptions.

    Tough shit if my actions hurt someone else. The builders actions, the HOA’s actions, the banks actions (NEVER got an occupancy permit) destroyed me. So kiss my fine white ass, Tuberculosis.

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  82. Gail is still an ass.

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  83. “I never made that call in housing.”

    Sorry. I thought you knew that I know that. I should have made it clearer that it was a general plea.

    I am definitely interested in specific sales that are causing the bottom calls.

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  84. Thanks for clearing that up, Gail.

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  85. gringozecarioca on March 16th, 2012 at 6:53 pm

    “Sorry. I thought you knew that I know that.”

    Well I have made contradictory comments from a perspective of risk surface and affordability as to owning/renting so thought you might have thought that I meant price. I am curious as well. Very skeptical. Although I always liked the bifurcated market idea and 2012 is just helpin along with that idea nicely. I don’t think the banks will lend to the lower end yet. Just lots of hopeful shoppers. I got one in play now myself. Not holdin my breath. Glad buyer isn’t American though.

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  86. Gail: people like you help me pay my rent and student loans. So, you’re a friend in my book. Vj and the other dudes are nothin but a bunch of haters. I spend 80pc of my working hours talking to rich and poor people who got f’d in real estate. Recently I’ve even retained a handful of million dollar commercial properties where the personal guarantors are battling it out as to who is going to pay the most to the bank. I love it and if I used this board to get business I’d ask you to refer to me all you family and friends.

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  87. I’ll call a bottom….but it’s in the silicon valley. Prices are supposedly on the way back up there.

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  88. Gail how on earth did you get a mortgage if all of those things happened? And why would you sink $100k into a place without doing your own due diligence?

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  89. Hahahah none of y’all have any idea how many people got caught up in real estate…….you were the minority if you weren’t buyin, helocing or flipping between 2000-2008…..

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  90. Doesn’t mean they were any less responsible for their own actions.

    I’m hoping the bottom has passed in my town, a unit in my sub just listed at 30% over what I paid last year. Let’s wait and see what they get for it now.

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  91. “It was an “investment” as a second residence.”

    #firstworldproblems & shadenfrude (#iknowitsnotspelledright)

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  92. You see Gail, its dumbasses like you is why we’re in this predicament.

    Was your net worth at least half of your mortgages on you real estate positions? IE: did you own one of your properties outright? I doubt it. Basically meant you leveraged up double long on RE. You had a speculative position in RE far in excess of what you should’ve. I’m glad you got your financial teeth knocked out.

    You are now a LOSER. I am a WINNER–my net worth is increasing and has been through most of this bust. It’s not like kindergarten or school these days where everyone is a winner. This is reality. The fact that Obama wants people like you (before you were foreclosed on) to refinance at lower rates via HARP I think is a travesty.

    People should receive absolutely no government assistance whatsoever if it is not their occupied, primary residence.

    When I become an accredited investor one day ($1MM net worth excluding primary residence) I don’t want you to ever look at people like me and think you’re just like me except for x, y and z. I am fundamentally different than you because I’m not a fucking idiot, like you were. And that should still count for a hell of a lot in contemporary America. We aren’t all the same.

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  93. “People should receive absolutely no government assistance whatsoever if it is not their occupied, primary residence.”

    I’m going to have to disagree with you on that one. Since the government is insisting on helping people out and since the government cannot get anything right like getting the help to people in a timely fashion (think hurricane Katrina of Real Estate) and since I’m gonna pay for it, I want my share. I don’t care if I’ve moved on and bought a house, I still want to be able to reduce my condo interest rate and/or principal enough to unload it sooner than later without eating more of a shit sandwich than I have to.

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  94. Gail is indeed a piece of crap and the cause of the housing debacle. Why would it be her responsibility to pay for something after she realized she was foolish for having bought a mistake? And why would we be so foolish as to expect her to make good on the obligation after having bought something that by her description was unlivable? Come on..this is obviously a “no brainer.” Thats why we have mortgages….so it is someone else’s responsibility. Didn’t any of you read that memo?

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  95. “When I become an accredited investor one day ($1MM net worth excluding primary residence) I don’t want you to ever look at people like me and think you’re just like me except for x, y and z.”

    According to you you’ve got about 30K in the bank, so congrats!! You’re well on your way to a mil.

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  96. GDR you are an idiot. Go vote for santorum.

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  97. Rest easy Bob, I would never look at you and think you were successful. My guess is I was buying property when you were still wetting your pants in third grade. Get over yourself-it’s a business deal, plain and simple. Simple decision to make-market price less than $160K, unit is 140K underwater. Never be a winner, so cut your losses. Oh, and since I operate in a higher circle than you, don’t be so naive to think the shadow inventory is anywhere near depletion. Very wealthy people are walking away, which is strictly business. Wanna bet that all these people hold their portfolio in an Alaskan Trust? Bob, that means recourse State or not, the bank ain’t gettin their money. Enjoy your weekend.

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  98. “According to you you’ve got about 30K in the bank, so congrats!! You’re well on your way to a mil.”

    Its no longer in the bank and closer to 50k. Yielding 9%. If I can keep that yield up, indeed.

    “Oh, and since I operate in a higher circle than you”

    No you’re just a moron who thinks you do. I know the type, Gail. I call it the River North high income low asset caste. The kind of people who think they’re BIG CITY BALLERS until they crap the first kid out then flee to Schaumburg and pretend they never once acted like they were masters of the universe.

    As competence and confidence are inversely correlated, such people fail out of the city all the time. I bet you were feeling pretty confident when you purchased your second property a few years ago, weren’t you, Gail?

    When are you going to crap that kid out, Gail? Actually I’d prefer you wanted to stay in your “higher circle” fooling yourself and don’t wind up reproducing. Society in the long run will be better off for it.

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  99. “don’t be so naive to think the shadow inventory is anywhere near depletion.”

    This we agree on. I know the antics the banks have been pulling the past few years so they’re not exposed as the insolvent entities they are. I know people who have been living rent free for years. Heck one even posts on here. It’s comical. But it just means the problems are not as close to being solved as they were four years ago. Good ol’ Barry just punted for a few years.

    As he can’t run for a third term it will be interesting to see what happens next year, regardless of the election winner.

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  100. “I’m going to have to disagree with you on that one.”

    Icarus, at least you explained your position and it makes sense. I’d vote myself money too I suppose. And your predicament isn’t as morally bankrupt as Gail’s. At least in your case you bought the initial property with the intent on living there and just wind up being stuck. The fact that the Gail’s of the world are now qualifying for Obama’s mortgage mod programs I find enraging.

    Gail is Judy Philips to a tee it seems:
    http://vodpod.com/watch/1066655-washington-approves-the-bailout-banned-snl-skit

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  101. Bob, 50k is an accomplishment for you, but 50k is peanuts in the scheme of things. You need a double income and a higher salary, which should eventually come, and then you’ll be able to save 50k in a year, or even receive a 50k bonus. My father in law was getting 50k bonuses yearly in the 80’s in a small upper midwest town and he wasn’t even that high on the corporate ladder. 50k isnt even a 20pc downpayment on a 250k condo after closing costs.

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  102. “and then you’ll be able to save 50k in a year, ”

    NW from 20k to 59k within past nine months. I’d say I’m well on way.

    “50k isnt even a 20pc downpayment on a 250k condo after closing costs.”

    Yeah but a great way to sink that amount and not earn yield off it. Maybe years on here have tainted me but these days I’m thinking those who put 20%+ down are suckers.

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  103. “I’ll call a bottom….but it’s in the silicon valley. Prices are supposedly on the way back up there.”

    Sure. It’s limited by geography and everyone at all the new tech companies getting rich off of IPOs want to live within a 30 minute drive of their office. There are only so many properties to buy that fit that description.

    The WSJ just had a tidbit about how prices are jumping in Noe Valley and the Mission (both neighborhoods in south San Francisco which are the closest to the highway to go to Silicon Valley.) You CAN live in one of those neighborhoods and do the commute (it’s about 48 actual miles to the heart of Silicon Valley from there- which is doable in just over an hour.) Google and Facebook also have shuttles that pick up employees in that neighborhood. So, again, is it any wonder that there are 20 bids on one $1.5 million house? I’m not surprised.

    But in areas of the Bay Area outside of the Silicon Valley commuting zone- the housing market is having the same problems as everywhere else. Heck, even in Marin County- which used to be golden but is way too far to commute to SV- prices are still falling.

    But it’s interesting to watch how these new IPOs are affecting this small sliver of a housing market out there. I still have friends there who are looking to buy. They don’t work in the tech industry. I don’t know why they live out there, to be honest. The housing market is awful.

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  104. “I lurk on here to keep tabs on the Chicago market. I bought a 2/2 high quality new construction in LP in 2007 (yeah, I know, great timing). $515 purchase price, normal loan, 25% down.

    I’ve now presumably lost all of my equity (last appraisal for refi was in 2010 for $450).

    Question for you experts: Do I sell this Spring, knowing I will lose > $100K but under the assumption that the market is going to be ravaged w/ foreclosures & short sales for years to come? In other words, better to lose 100K than 200K+. The money I put into it will obviously not outpace the loss in value. I love my place, but I also don’t want to live there forever either. Would probably (all things being normal) want to move in 2 years to a bigger place.”

    LP Homeowner: if you have no reason to move, then just keep living there and paying the mortgage. The damage has already been done. You can’t time it at this point.

    What do other people think?

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  105. “Then we entered the basement which had at one point been a separate apartment and almost fell into a large hole.
    Seriously. The foundation was messed up and there was a huge dirt pit in the middle of the basement. Just like in Silence of the Lambs.
    We were like “Let’s get the “F” outta here.”
    And with all of that it still went under contract quickly.”

    OMG! Milkster- this is one of the best real estate stories I’ve heard in awhile. I think I would have freaked out the same way after seeing a pit in the basement floor.

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  106. “I bought a 2/2 high quality new construction in LP in 2007 (yeah, I know, great timing). $515 purchase price, normal loan, 25% down.”

    So $386250 mortgage – 5 years of payments.

    “I’ve now presumably lost all of my equity (last appraisal for refi was in 2010 for $450).” well technically you had 65K of equity.

    “The money I put into it will obviously not outpace the loss in value.” since it was high quality, new construction, what money did you put in it and for what?

    ” Would probably (all things being normal) want to move in 2 years to a bigger place.”

    I would crunch the numbers to figure out what you need to sell it at to walk away without bringing money to the table and list it there. If it doesn’t sell in 30-60 days, delist it and start paying down that mortgage.

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  107. LP homeowner. why sell now at all? Would you be staying in the area and presumably moving to a rental? Lots of people might argue about whether or not we’re at the bottom, but it seems very unlikely to me that there’s that much depreciation ahead of us for a good 2/2 in a decent location in Lincoln Park. You’re already down the 20-30% or more regardless of whether or not you sell, so why guarantee that you’ll sell at a low point when you don’t need to? If you need to sell now, go ahead and try, but it seems very unwise to me to sell now after all the price declines have happened, before you need to sell. You need a place to live either way.

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  108. Now I see that you want to move in 2 years to a bigger place. If you’re staying local, I think that a person in your situation should sell now only if: (a) he or she is done being a homeowner forever or until much older or until he or she has far more money because he or she is scarred by having lost money (I know a bunch of people like this.); (b) he or she absolutely can’t afford the current place and is trying to avoid financial hardship (certainly, many are in this situation); or (c) he or she is immediately willing and able to buy a new place that is preferable net of preferences and costs (I know a few people who have done this and I think that, while it’s pretty aggressive and more of an $1m market type of thing, it probably makes sense for some. I think that your plan of selling now to buy a bigger place in two years runs a pretty good chance of triple-dipping market timing failures.

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  109. “the banks actions (NEVER got an occupancy permit)”

    Gail – How the heck did you let this transaction close? Once you found that out what action did you take? Sure Bob is a bit of a prick and has some strong opinions that he shares however that is a clear sign that you let something HUGE slide by without doing your appropriate research.

    What is the saying… let the BUYER beware!

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  110. gringozecarioca on March 18th, 2012 at 3:14 pm

    ” I think that your plan of selling now to buy a bigger place in two years runs a pretty good chance of triple-dipping market timing failures.”

    Ditto.. like the way JJJ made it sound like a Ben and Jerrys flavor… mmm.. some chocolate triple dippin market timin failure topped with some ripped open new asshole sprinkles.

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  111. gringozecarioca on March 18th, 2012 at 3:19 pm

    Do people ever buy something, and transact afterwards, without thinking about what they paid for it? Maybe it’s all the pot and I just don’t remember.

    Just me?

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  112. It isn’t surprising that people are trying to front-run the future FB millionaires by lifting offers, brushing up the property, & then hopefully re-selling it for much more.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/09/us/california-housing-market-braces-for-facebook-millionaires.html

    We saw a less-plausible version of that ‘strategy’ attempted in Chicago that went something like: Buy a condo in the South Loop before the Olympic Games come to town.

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  113. San Francisco’s (inferior) version of CribChatter is called Socketsite.

    http://www.socketsite.com/

    The comparison of properties between there & here is often an amazing thing to behold.
    SF re, like Manhattan’s, is out of this world.

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  114. gringozecarioca on March 18th, 2012 at 4:18 pm

    “We saw a less-plausible version of that ‘strategy’ attempted in Chicago that went something like: Buy a condo in the South Loop before the Olympic Games come to town.”

    Just needed to go farther south. :-)

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  115. “You need a double income and a higher salary, which should eventually come, and then you’ll be able to save 50k in a year, or even receive a 50k bonus. My father in law was getting 50k bonuses yearly in the 80?s in a small upper midwest town and he wasn’t even that high on the corporate ladder.”

    Two additional observations upon further thought:

    1) you obviously don’t know that in corp. america you hit a salary/straight pay wall, where any increases beyond that come with either hugely more responsibility/less job security. from my anecdotal observations this “straight pay” wall has been around 115-135k over the past decade. In other words the 200k straight pay guy is in a job with much more responsibility and there is much higher risk/turnover. It also takes a hell of a lot longer to land a 200k job than a 100k one, all else being equal.

    2) the pay that the job your father in law had has increasingly been replaced with lower paying jobs (lower bonuses) or eliminated altogether. they don’t do this mostly with layoffs–they do this with retirements and when people leave the company. what you’ll find is corporations used these segways to either infill the position with someone with lower pay but same responsibilities (promotion in name only or promotion but not at same rate) or they elminite/consolidate the positions, esp. above director level.

    Cash bonuses of that amount are these days unheard of in most companies below the GM level in large cos, director level in smaller/mid sized cos. Cash bonuses for the managerial rank & file top out around 25-35k. For the grunts on the ground: 15-25k (nowadays even lower: 8-20k-ish). It has been this way as long as I’ve been in the workforce with no nominal growth in these rates and even declines. Remember we aren’t talking about wall street here.

    Remember when the unemployment rate is this high the owners/C-level execs bake in wage deflation, but it’s called fixed cost/overhead productivity.

    I can assure you that at double my current rate overall my remuneration would likely be lower.

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  116. “I can assure you that at double my current rate overall my remuneration would likely be lower.”

    I’m not really sure what “current rate overall” you’re talking about, but this sounds like understanding marginal taxation fail to me.

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  117. gringozecarioca on March 18th, 2012 at 5:49 pm

    “I’m not really sure what “current rate overall” you’re talking about, but this sounds like understanding marginal taxation fail to me.”

    Maybe the increase in bracket would force him to have to yuppifie his life. He’s including the upgrade to the Prius turbo into his calc. Kinda like making 100k or 5 million in Manhattan. End of the year you can easily have nothing!

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  118. “I’m not really sure what “current rate overall” you’re talking about, but this sounds like understanding marginal taxation fail to me.”

    Sounds like comprehension fail to me, on your behalf. It’s called a billing rate, and I don’t expect corporate drones like you to understand something as simple as of P*Q.

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  119. “The comparison of properties between there & here is often an amazing thing to behold.
    SF re, like Manhattan’s, is out of this world.”

    Their GZ is but a large part of the rest of the city has come down in price. But like Chicago- if you’re looking for an “affordable” SFH in the GZ then you’ll be out of luck. And like Chicago- the city schools suck so people with five year olds move to the suburbs. San Francisco has the lowest population of children of any major city in the country.

    Socketsite is a good blog but it doesn’t cover the non-GZ properties (like Crib Chatter does.) Apparently, no one there wants to discuss the $400,000 foreclosure in the bayview with the kitchen missing (like we like to talk about it here in Chicago- except its in Austin or Albany Park etc.)

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  120. “Sounds like comprehension fail to me, on your behalf. It’s called a billing rate, and I don’t expect corporate drones like you to understand something as simple as of P*Q.”

    This part of the discussion started because hd was saying your savings and investment prowess is surely impressive, but maybe not something worth bragging about. Then you made some comments about compensation in settings it doesn’t sound like you understand very well. Now you’re talking, essentially, about the shape of the demand curve for your services. You can’t just throw out a word soup of concepts you don’t understand and then get pissy when someone calls you on it not making sense. What’s your point, bigshot?

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  121. “But like Chicago- if you’re looking for an “affordable” SFH in the GZ then you’ll be out of luck.”

    That’s only true if you come up with some “weird” “definition” of “affordable.” Try to compare the houses you can get in good neighborhoods in Chicago for $700k or so to what you get for that in California or New York – it’s nowhere close. Chicago is much more affordable, and the income taxes are much lower.

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  122. “You can’t just throw out a word soup of concepts you don’t understand and then get pissy when someone calls you on it not making sense. ”

    Yeah I can–if you didn’t understand what I was stating not sure why you would assume it was a failure to grasp marginal taxation. Sounds like instead of trying to make sense out of what I wrote you tried to interpret is as not making sense. It is you who is the a#*@ here not me.

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  123. gringozecarioca on March 18th, 2012 at 8:01 pm

    ” I don’t expect corporate drones like you to understand something as simple as of P*Q.”

    I finally get it Bob, I would probably hate myself too, if I took pride in saying something like that.

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  124. You need to find a way to make in the 200s or 300s, and not spend nearly all of it, in order to really start saving money. That’s just my opinion. 200’s ain’t easy these days and especially not for younger folks

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  125. “You need to find a way to make in the 200s or 300s, and not spend nearly all of it, in order to really start saving money. That’s just my opinion. 200?s ain’t easy these days and especially not for younger folks”

    I don’t know, HD, when building wealth, income IS important, but savings is the key. look at all the celebrities and athletes who have made millions but are in debt – and then look at the janitor who lives a frugal lifestyle and dies with a few million dollars. Live below your means, splurge occasionally if you have to, and you are likely to be set.

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  126. “Live below your means, splurge occasionally if you have to, and you are likely to be set.”

    that works to a degree; but these days it is getting more and more difficult to live below your means when the bare necessities are costing more and more. For the upper middle class sure; but for the middle class household earning $70,000 a year every $4.00 gallon of gas is money that comes directly from their bottom line. Why do pistachios have to cost $9.00 a lbs? Why is eye of round (to make roast beef) over $5.00 a lbs? Why is kraft cheese now $2.79 and 7ozs rather than 8oz? The cost of things these days is mind boggling.

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  127. gringozecarioca on March 18th, 2012 at 9:27 pm

    “Why do pistachios have to cost $9.00 a lbs? Why is eye of round (to make roast beef) over $5.00 a lbs? Why is kraft cheese now $2.79 and 7ozs rather than 8oz? The cost of things these days is mind boggling.”

    HD curious.. what was your monthly food budget…? I think you had it down to the dollar once. I want to see something.

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  128. gz: my food budget has unfortunately increased now that I have a baby (and less time to spend all weekend cooking rice and beans)…and it seems the rampant food inflation has finally hit *my* supermarket. I went shopping for the week today and I spend $70 bucks. That however didn’t include $40 bucks at Jewel yesterday which included baby’s milk and other random basics.

    I bought a really nice looking pork shoulder for $1.69 lbs a pound (the rest of the pig cost upwards of $5.00 a lbs) and I smoked it for 5 hours today. I however externalized the cost of charcoal because I basically took ‘building’ charcoal from last fall and used it for myself. I have also made substitutes – pistachios at $9lbs so I’m eating dry roasted peanuts instead; my grocery no longer carries american asparagus at $3.99 lbs but has mexican asparagus for .99 cents a lbs. I stopped buying brand name bacon. I eat way more beans these days. I buy whole chickens and rarely if ever buy just breasts etc. One thing that drives up my costs however is that I don’t eat corporate chicken and I try to buy only organic or free range so jesus it’s like $10 a chicken these days for a fryer but my conscious and health is better for it. I make my own burger patties, but not often, red meat causes colon cancer and I know like 10x people in my life who have gotten cancer in the past 12 months. I also splurge a bit for the low sodium or high fiber versions of most products, you know, so that adds a .50 or a dollar to everything I buy. A box of whole grain penne is $3.00 bucks but the regular is around $1.00. Not that these added up for an upper middle class life style really dent my budget that much; it’s the daycare, the student loans, and the mortgage, if a had one, that would take up a much much larger percentage of my paycheck.

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  129. Alcohol has also gotten pretty crazy. The average six pack of craft beer is now like $9 or $10 bucks. A lot of that is taxes though. But still, even with mass produced beer, a sixer of bud is like $5.99; it used to be $3.99. Thank goodness I don’t smoke anymore (haven’t since college) but smokes are like $9,50 or $10.00 a pack in my office building commissary. Gas is $4.00 a gallon these days, don’t get me started on that. An updated entry level house in a upper middle class suburb is still above $300,000 even though that same house slightly west or south or east could be half the price. An affordable house in the GZ is still over $500,000; and in OIP it’s still above $400,000. I just find it crazy, like all this stuff costs more, so someone is making money off it, but they too are paying more; it’s like the price incerases are going in to a bottomless pit or something..

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  130. “You need to find a way to make in the 200s or 300s, and not spend nearly all of it, in order to really start saving money. That’s just my opinion.”

    Hate to say I agree with clio on this one, but I do. The number of jobs out there around 100k is far more than 200s or 300s. Also when you get up to 200s/300s jobs you get killed on taxes, less job security, and typically those jobs are much more than 40hrs/week (try 80). Maybe for doctors its different and this just reflects the corporate environment. Also for that kind of pay most of it isn’t guaranteed/cash so only a fool ramps up their lifestyle to account for variable large paychecks.

    “The cost of things these days is mind boggling.”

    It depends. For smart consumers not necessarily. You want to shop at Whole Foods or Marianos yeah you’re going to get ripped. Don’t want to shop the deals you won’t be able to keep the costs down. You can still get USDA choice ribeye at Jewel for 5.99/lb sometimes, or some other meat or fish special. 15 years ago you weren’t getting that quality of meat for that price on special.

    And it still pays to shop around. As an example this year the major retailers that sell beer have all tried price increases from $12/30pk to 13 or 14. (Jewel, CVS, Dominick’s, Binny’s). Just means I now shop at Foremost Liquors who didn’t move in lockstep and still has them for $12. Jewel, CVS, Dominicks, etc have all effectively lost my business.

    Just this weekend switched drycleaners because I was tired of paying $4 for pants when the new guy closer is doing them for $2.50.

    If everyone aggressively comparison shopped it would be far harder for this inflation to take root. But most consumers are lazy/can’t be bothered.

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  131. gringozecarioca on March 18th, 2012 at 10:17 pm

    “If everyone aggressively comparison shopped it would be far harder for this inflation to take root. But most consumers are lazy/can’t be bothered.”

    You are not in control of your own inflation anymore. It will get worse. I sound like a broken record sometimes. Btw… Bob tell me again about D-flation. Think in 4 years it may be the only thing you keep trying to BWAAAHHHH me on… still insiting on D-FLATION? ROFLMAO!!! You missed the Fed’s 09 memo where they said they would print Gazillions if that’s what it takes… Funny to read JJJ finally picking up on your aggressive assertions of unfounded knowledge. He should see all the letters you write to Dershowitz telling him you want to debate his dumb Jew ass. Soon JJJ will realize that those positions will remain obstinate regardless of how wrong they almost always are. Well in fairness your foundation usually is truly good, problem is you always turn where you want to go and not where they story wants to go.

    HD.. if you had to guess how much a 1% increase in food hurts your real net worth. I bet you would not even be close. You would be amazed how short food you are. But you sit on it without fear while you will shudder buying 100shares of ADM.

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  132. “Bob tell me again about D-flation. Think in 4 years it may be the only thing you keep trying to BWAAAHHHH me on… still insiting on D-FLATION?”

    My basket of goods has deflated a bit the past five years. Only thing higher is gas prices. If we had a natural gas infrastructure in place like in Utah even that could be dodged by those who went that route.

    You don’t seem to understand the Fed is not some omnipotent entity that can change the macro outlook to it’s will. That’s the story they like to promote and they’re fine with the financial press presenting them as such, but it’s far from reality. They can only really directly control short term interest rates. They have certainly tried to target asset prices. Doesn’t seem to be working out for them thus far.

    And given the employment situation and the increasing concentration of earnings/wealth in ever fewer hands, don’t count deflation out quite yet. Things got a bit out of line the past few decades with credit expansion–these days credit will not be extended if there isn’t a reasonable expectation of repaying it back.

    Asset prices will fall to levels commensurate with aggregate wages. And nothing filthy ones like you or -witzes can do about it, really.

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  133. “but these days it is getting more and more difficult to live below your means when the bare necessities are costing more and more.”

    “A box of whole grain penne is $3.00 bucks but the regular is around $1.00.”

    “The average six pack of craft beer is now like $9 or $10 bucks.”

    LMFAO spoken like a true GZer.

    “A lot of that is taxes though. But still, even with mass produced beer, a sixer of bud is like $5.99; it used to be $3.99. ”

    And yet cases can still be had for $14 at certain places–what I remember paying in college more than a decade ago. And no not talking about subbing out mass produced beer with sub-premium either I’m talking case Budweiser today vs. 1997.

    Most of the city gets by on far less. I love it when people ramp up their lifestyle, try to justify it to themselves as bare necessities or don’t effectively shop (ie: 6pk vs. case, when there are clearly unit costs savings at the case/12pk level above 6pk), and complain about costs rising.

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  134. “My basket of goods has deflated a bit the past five years. Only thing higher is gas prices. ”

    sorry but I call bullshit

    and life is way to short and shitty to deal with drinking SHIT beer bob, seriously wtf is wrong with you

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  135. Gotta look at the prices of the things that go INTO the creation of food. Grain prices for feed drive up the cost of meat whether it be chicken, pork or beef. Add into the mix the drought in Texas and you have less in the way of available beef on the hoof for sale. Transportation costs are increasing, which adds onto the prices.

    The cost of grains directly affects the cost of stuff like pasta, beer and bread. Wheat may not be as high as corn, but if you’re going gluten-free, then it’s either rice or corn that is being used to make the pasta. Corn is used in many markets beyond food stuffs, so the demand for corn is going to increase the price. Add into the uncertain harvests the last few years to make prices even higher. Malt barley for beer is also affected by the oddball weather patterns, so the price on that is going to go up as well.

    I’m thinking that it’s not going to be long before more people are gardening, canning and buying their meat from local co-ops in an attempt to save money. I predict Bob will be craft brewing before long.

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  136. gringozecarioca on March 19th, 2012 at 5:34 am

    “Gotta look at the prices of the things that go INTO the creation of food.”

    I figure that for every 1,000 a month you spend in food, you need to be long 10+ corn contracts. Every 1% increase in food is a nice $3,500 or so direct punch in the face per $1,000.

    What’s your budget HD? What do you look like if food goes up 5% this year. Your net worth on paper could be increasing as that Family NPV simultaneously gets hit. You need to protect that family of yours. Walkin around short out the ass thinking you are the one without risk.

    And yes Bob, I know it doesn’t affect you, you’ll just cut your beer expensive in half by pissing in your mouth and cook on the methane in your ass.

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  137. “and life is way to short and shitty to deal with drinking SHIT beer bob, seriously wtf is wrong with you”

    There are other side benefits of drinking what you call shit beer. Let’s just say when left in common areas/coolers theft isn’t as common.

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  138. “LMFAO spoken like a true GZer.”

    Bob, you make a half-way decent argument and the you fuck it all up with your stupid, ridiculous petty insults. I don’t live in the GZ. I don’t shop in the GZ. I buy most of my booze from Cardinal Liquors on Central Ave (can you even guess how far west Central Ave is without looking on a map?). It’s $6.00 a six pack for Leines or Goose Island. The crafts start to go up from there. A lot it has to do with the crazy booze taxes cook county levies, just like with tobacco. You can get smokes half price in DuPage County or 1/3rd of the price in Indiana than of Chicago.

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  139. @jp3 here’s what I did-hired attorney for closing to insure all docs were in order, hired inspector prioor to close. Inspector didn’t compare prints to “as built.” Lawyer didn’t make sure occupancy permit was in package. Called him-“buildings in Chicago rarely get OP before sale.” really? Not what municipal code says. Went after developer, got deposition where he admitted numerous unpermitted changes to plans, including using SMALLER TRUSSES than spec. Then hired structural engineer who warned of safety issues. HOA doesn’t want to know, and won’t get engineering study. Three lawyers said sell, don’t tell buyer. Can’t do that, liability is too great. Finally, resident of another building built by same schmuck sued for exact same issue-been in court for two years, trial date not scheduled, now builders insurance company is suing to get out of coverage. Those with knowledge of business claim there are hundreds of these suits pending in Chancery. Bottom line-Bob is a moron, and I question whether ANY building built between 2005-09 actaully meets code.

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  140. CPG companies really, really want the HDs of the world to sub whole grain pasta for regular and craft brews for mass market. In those areas they can differentiate. For their much higher volume mass market brands there is almost no margin and no pricing power whatsoever. If the top 20% consumers pulled back into the mass mkt CPGs are up shits creek.

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  141. gringozecarioca on March 19th, 2012 at 9:38 am

    “really want the HDs of the world to sub whole grain pasta ”

    I’ll take 1 egg – a cup of flour – pinch of salt… Ze knows how to live on the cheap! Of course mixing in clams, mussels, calamari and shrimp with a good cheese might bump it a bit. Come to think about it need wine just to cook it… so 2 more glasses for Ze just while he is cooking..

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  142. “(and less time to spend all weekend cooking rice and beans)…”
    HD – I actually did make rice and beans yesterday.
    Literally, not figuratively.
    I started it off by sauteeing some nice, spicy pancetta in the pot from Coluccio’s in Bensonhurst.
    Yum :)
    And yes, the cost of our groceries has gone up too and I was mad the other morning when I discovered they are only putting 6 soy patties in the box instead of 8!

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  143. “I’ll take 1 egg – a cup of flour – pinch of salt… Ze knows how to live on the cheap!”

    And you can get cheaper by keeping your own hens:

    http://www.plymouth-review.com/news/2011-05-10/Neighbors/Shattering_seven_urban_myths_about_raising_chicken.html

    And, of course, getting the salt free from restaurants!

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  144. how do you make rice and beans figuratively?

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  145. “how do you make rice and beans figuratively?”

    By making beans and noodles? Or anything else super cheap?

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  146. Given that there is a history of colon problems in my family, and in general, american’s lack of fiber intake, I’ll eat fiber anywhere I can, including whole grain pasta. I’ll gladly pay $3.00 a box for dried pasta knowing that I’m reducing my changes of colon cancer or diverticulitis or any other multitude of colon problems.

    Swag beer has it’s time and place; and so do nicer beers. There’s no law that says I have to drink as cheaply as possible. And my goodness, you know that budwiser is full nasty chemicals, all those cheap beers are.

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  147. “Swag beer has it’s time and place; and so do nicer beers.”

    No, no excuse for drinking crap beer that you buy. Only excuse is to be not rude when offered one, and even that is avoidable.

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  148. “No, no excuse for drinking crap beer that you buy.”

    Hahahah! A bud light is tasty and excellent on a hot summer day; six of them are even tastier. Try drinking the walgreens big flats – it’s only $2.99 a six pack. Light, watery, with a little bit of alcohol. So refreshing. there’s a time and place for everything.

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  149. “how do you make rice and beans figuratively?”
    “Eating rice and beans” is a CC metaphor for making sacrifices or living below your means.
    It all started back in this thread, almost 2 years ago when westloop accused me of being blonde-haired and blue-eyed:
    http://cribchatter.com/?p=9028

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  150. Milkster: heh–nice link back:

    “homedelete (July 23, 2010, 12:40 pm)
    OK helicopter JMM.

    1) inflate money supply: check
    2) ‘flick switch’: stimulus, TARP, gov borrowing – check

    Yet we still have deflation. “

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  151. Yeah, at the time there was deflation. Today I’m seeing inflation in food costs. Housing costs continue to fall, however.

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  152. It is light out right now. I wouldn’t count on it being dark again, at least not in a time period that might be relevant.

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  153. gringozecarioca on March 19th, 2012 at 1:03 pm

    “1) inflate money supply: check
    2) ‘flick switch’: stimulus, TARP, gov borrowing – check”

    and his famous we MUST have wage inflation along with….

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  154. gringozecarioca on March 19th, 2012 at 1:04 pm

    and hey.. I’m eating rice and beans right now.. healthiest thing ever.

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  155. “I’m eating rice and beans right now”

    Late lunch or early dinner?

    I hope you paid extra for the free range beans or I’ll have to report you to PETL.

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  156. it seems from the past thread that figuratively eating rice and beans is also racist in the mind of westloop. he was funny sometimes.

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  157. “Red beans and rice didn’t miss her!”

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  158. from zerohedge:

    “If you were head of Central Planning (howdy, Ben!) and were tasked with crippling the real estate market, here’s what you would recommend:

    –Choke the market and banking sector with zombie banks.
    –Have the central bank (the Federal Reserve) buy up $1 trillion in toxic, impaired mortgages.
    –Lower the rate that banks can borrow from the Fed to zero, and then pay the banks interest on all funds deposited at the Fed.
    –Try to prop up the housing market by giving poor credit risk buyers loans with only 3% down.
    –Load young people up with the equivalent of a mortgage in student loans.

    OK,let’s see how our Organs of Central Planning are doing: check, check, check, check, check: a perfect score! they’re doing everything possible to cripple the real estate market. Do they care? Of course not; the only goal is to keep the zombie banks alive, regardless of the cost to the nation.”

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  159. gringozecarioca on March 19th, 2012 at 2:35 pm

    “I hope you paid extra for the free range beans or I’ll have to report you to PETL.”

    Late lunch.. more MiL antics today… Hey, I have you to thank for just reminding me that I owned cows and chickens last year. No idea what to do with the 18L Nitrogen Tank, sitting in my office, filled with bull semen though. Or how I keep forgetting it is there.

    HD.. If your monthly budget is 3k.. You made about 15k on your short today. Way to go!!
    Bob was up only $1,100, as pissing in your own mouth sold off just .37%, on the day.

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  160. give me an example gz of how I could make 15k today. and maybe I’ll do it

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  161. If Greece is the harbinger, then all the money-printing and propping up won’t stop deflation. The Fed represents the banks, so they’ll inflate to support the banks, but on Main Street we’ll deflate since money printing doesn’t trickle down to Main Street which is drowning in debt still.

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  162. gringozecarioca on March 19th, 2012 at 3:17 pm

    I am saying you already did :-)

    Ain’t that better?

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  163. gringozecarioca on March 19th, 2012 at 3:18 pm

    Where is DZ when you need him.. He’d be all over this.

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  164. The market has turned. Developers are starting to get aggressive.

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  165. “Where is DZ when you need him.. He’d be all over this.”

    I dunno about that, but I do know what I’m serving for the CC housewarming.

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  166. “anon (tfo) (March 19, 2012, 10:47 am)

    “I’ll take 1 egg – a cup of flour – pinch of salt… Ze knows how to live on the cheap!”

    And you can get cheaper by keeping your own hens:”

    I would’ve never suspected before tonight anon(tfo) spent any time on the southwest side. Oh wait wrong gender.

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  167. “I would’ve never suspected before tonight anon(tfo) spent any time on the southwest side. Oh wait wrong gender.”

    You clearly didn’t read Myth 6–it’s the next overpriced waste if money dum-yup breeder trend! Designer coops!

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  168. gringozecarioca on March 20th, 2012 at 6:38 am

    “I dunno about that, but I do know what I’m serving for the CC housewarming.”

    I just wanted to make sure no one was around to call me on the math. It was, shall we say, a bit loose… :-)

    “dum-yup breeder trend!”

    My lesson in chickens. If you keep them cooped, neither the eggs nor meat are better than store bought (Ze remembers never being upset with Bell + Evans) and you will have a ton of shit to clean. If you free range them on grass and insects the eggs will be the craziest thing you have ever tasted, nothing like store bought. Bright orange. Just incredible. The meat will be inedible though and if you do not have sufficient space they will turn the ground immediately into asphalt with their shit destroying everything.

    Ze played it for the eggs…

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  169. “I just wanted to make sure no one was around to call me on the math”

    Still have headache from last time you had me running spreadsheets for you.

    “meat will be inedible though”

    Can’t you just stew the hell out of it, or make soup?

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  170. “Is north of addison a requirement?”

    3523 claremont closed at $425K. If it was in reasonable condition (for a gut), that’s a heck of a discount for s of addison.

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  171. “If you free range them on grass and insects the eggs will be the craziest thing you have ever tasted, nothing like store bought. Bright orange. Just incredible. The meat will be inedible though…”

    The eggs are freakin’ fantastic. For the legs and thighs, slow roast, smoke, or make coq au vin– these birds have a fantastic gaminess– think of the intense flavor of chicken gizzards. If you eat gizzards and hearts, you’ll love these old birds. For the breast meat, grind it and make mapo tofu– better and more flavorful than using pork.

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  172. “3523 claremont closed at $425K. If it was in reasonable condition (for a gut), that’s a heck of a discount for s of addison.”

    It’s $200k for crossing Western, so $100k for crossing Addison doesn’t seem too out of step.

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  173. “It’s $200k for crossing Western, so $100k for crossing Addison doesn’t seem too out of step.”

    I guess we don’t have a recent n of addison, e side of Claremont comp in Bell. That could be sub $500, even when nothing else is (w/in the boundaries we are talking about).

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  174. Ze – Google for chicken tractors.

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  175. DZ, what about 3617 bell? old brick two flat.. 475k in august now coming back on at triple according to redfin

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  176. ” what about 3617 bell?”

    It was like a Travolta/Cage movie.

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  177. “what about 3617 bell?”

    It was like a Travolta/Cage movie. Woo Construction, iirc.

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  178. gringozecarioca on March 20th, 2012 at 3:30 pm

    Ze is now acting building manager, the executive counsel, and has signatory authority over all expenses in his building… Who always said never get involved in your building?

    “Still have headache from last time you had me running spreadsheets for you.”

    My apologies…. I would have asked Bob to do it, but he has an MBA, and I wanted it to be correct.

    Could make chicken stock.. Joe T seems impressively more creative though. I am impressed. Mapo Tofu.. damn that’s like goin all in on the 5 upmanship. I feel humbled.

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  179. “Ze is now acting building manager, the executive counsel, and has signatory authority over all expenses in his building… Who always said never get involved in your building?”

    LOL, look where you live. Even a one-eyed man seems like a genius among the blind.

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  180. gringozecarioca on March 20th, 2012 at 3:48 pm

    “LOL, look where you live.”

    Yes, somewhere where the numbers you are looking at for your dream apartment, couldn’t even pay for my hallway bathroom.

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  181. You’re wrong, I have money. LOL, let’s hear about all those good-looking people in your hood too… Yeah, your mullatina wife is putting the horns on you right now with a real man, while you just sit around getting high, cooking, and getting fatter and balder by the day!

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  182. “my hallway bathroom”

    That’s one expensive vacuum.

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  183. gringozecarioca on March 20th, 2012 at 4:02 pm

    “Yeah, your mullatina wife is putting the horns on you right now with a real man”

    Actually she’s in the kitchen, with the dogs, drinking coffee. You made me nervous so I checked.

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  184. gringozecarioca on March 20th, 2012 at 4:10 pm

    “That’s one expensive vacuum.”

    Took me a minute, scary you remember my stupidity better than I do… long day yesterday.. finally figured out how a fairly large building management company is stealing. Goys of course!

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  185. “Goys of course!”

    Many years ago I used to chill with this very smart, very attractive, jewish girl who constantly reminded me that “goys are for dating! jews are for marrying!”

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  186. gringozecarioca on March 20th, 2012 at 4:37 pm

    ““goys are for dating! jews are for marrying!””

    Hate to say it in present company but…. Marrying a Jewish chick was never an option for me. Look what it did to anonny. He was a self described partying vagabond and now he is an uptight prick.

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  187. “Many years ago I used to chill with this very smart, very attractive, jewish girl ”

    She sounds pretty awesome. Are you still in touch with her? I take it this is someone different from the firecracker. CH, do you have a nickname for this additional pre-MrsHD?

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  188. gringozecarioca on March 20th, 2012 at 4:44 pm

    The Jewish woman is very simple. She runs everything without argument although she is happy to argue with you, and despite you being a Senior partner at big law, you will always lose. The husband is responsible to work and give her children everything, particularly her son, who will receive 98% of her attention and whom she is certain is the Messiah. The father does make certain the daughter is so spoiled that she will grow up accepting nothing less than someone as successful as him….The formula is unbreakable.

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  189. “CH, do you have a nickname for this additional pre-MrsHD?”

    The firecracker girl grew up in Roscoe VIllage when it was overrun with hillbillies. The very smart, very attractive jewish was from a different state. I hadn’t thought of her in years, but for the word ‘goy’. She ended up marrying some super huge douchebag biglaw security lawyer who is probably as douchy as you can imagine. That’s funny that GZ mentioned ‘the formula’ because I was great friends (no really, just friends) with this other jewish girl in college and she dated a bunch of goys – she too was a very attractive girl, you would never guess she was the least bit jewish, tall with natural blonde hair and blue eyes; but then I met her fiancee, OMG, such a douche, huge douche, basically he was like Larry David but younger and not nearly as entertaining. But he made a lot of money in securities or something like that and he had the north shore pedigree so she was like “Let’s seal the deal!” even though I can’t imagine life is very enjoyable with someone who once said “i don’t like french or italian food”.

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  190. ” Roscoe VIllage when it was overrun with hillbillies”

    Talk like that will get your comment deleted, HD.

    btw, been saving this til there was a hook:

    http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/The-312/January-2012/Chicagos-Hillbilly-Problem-During-the-Great-Migration/

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  191. do you have a nickname for this additional pre-MrsHD?

    since she wasnt into him how about the difference between HD and annonyy

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  192. gringozecarioca on March 20th, 2012 at 6:07 pm

    “Talk like that will get your comment deleted, HD.”

    I won’t complain. I know exactly of whom he speaks. The guys that always wound up in some AEPi frat somewhere… Again comes from the Mom and the crazy expectations. From when we all get the “weren’t you in class with that Zuckerburg boy… soooo… I heard he is doing well” shit thrown in our face regularly.
    Nothing easier than hiring a Jewish guy. If he doesn’t work you just call his mom.

    I honestly have not allowed my parents to see where I live since there was a 19 in front of the year nor ever spoken about earnings since I was 24 (yes, I was told what I thought was a lot – was not)

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  193. funny, but it was hillbilly talk that was deleted in the past.

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  194. gringozecarioca on March 20th, 2012 at 7:21 pm

    “funny, but it was hillbilly talk that was deleted in the past.”

    That’s because hillbilly is offensive, they prefer to be referred to as “American-born white skinned natives”

    There were so many sentences in that, which had me almost in tears..

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  195. Love that article. As an Appalachian-Chicagoan immigrant myself I sent it around to my high school gang when it appeared.

    “The hillbillies’ home and family life, experienced investigators say, is the most depraved of any they have ever encountered, with no understanding of sanitation or health.”

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  196. “Many years ago I used to chill with this very smart, very attractive, jewish girl who constantly reminded me that “goys are for dating! jews are for marrying!”

    About as racist as it gets. homedelete as sucker idiot shabbas goy fool, it explains alot.

    “She sounds pretty awesome. Are you still in touch with her?”

    LOL!! What’s awesome about that, she rejects diversity? I guess the jewish guys don’t care their women get boned by Ayrans before marriage? That’s gotta make the sons of the moms proud, along with knowing their moms use plastic surg beginning in high school.

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  197. “The hillbillies’ home and family life, experienced investigators say, is the most depraved of any they have ever encountered, with no understanding of sanitation or health.”

    Lies. That is total BS. Look at who wrote the propaganda:

    “During the 1950s, the Tribune dispatched tough, oddball investigative reporter and Radcliffe grad Norma Lee Browning to Uptown.”

    Look, I’m not going to debate people because I’m right. Look at the poverty rates in WV and KY, and look at the crime rates, murder rates, etc. They are far less than what you see in Black and Hispanic areas. End of story. Who is depraved? You don’t have to venture too far outside the Green Zone to see it. Were 49 people shot in “hillbilly” areas of the USA over the last weekend? No. But it happened here.

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  198. “They are far less than what you see in Black and Hispanic areas. ”

    Not sure about hispanic areas but IIRC hispanic per capita crime rates are 30% higher than whites. Black per capita crime rates are 350%+ higher. Hispanic increased per capita crime rates can perhaps be explained by environment, black increased per capita crime rates absolutely can’t.

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  199. Back to the topic a hand: mye office has Ben filing new foreclosures like crazy, however, most of what I’ve seen is the typical southside dump with the occasional north or northwest suburban condo. The occupants of the better housing have figured out ways to get loan mods. I had my first shared appreciation loan mod come across my desk. Owner Has not paid his mortgage since dec 2008 and his first loan mod payment is due on may 1. Interestingly enough, his new payment is the same as his old payment. Go figure.

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  200. “Owner Has not paid his mortgage since dec 2008 and his first loan mod payment is due on may 1. Interestingly enough, his new payment is the same as his old payment. Go figure.”

    Surprised his first payment in years is due before November 7th. Wanna guess who he’ll be voting for?

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