Market Conditions: March 2021 Sales Soar 35.5% YOY on Red-Hot Condo Sales
The Illinois Association of Realtors is out with the March sales.
We already know from Gary’s updates on his blog that March was red-hot.
But what you might not remember was that LAST March was also strong, with the median home price rising 10%.
Last spring’s housing market was already heating up before COVID hit.
In the city of Chicago, home sales (single-family and condominiums) in March 2021 totaled 2,877 homes sold, up 35.5 percent from March 2020 sales of 2,123 homes.
The median price of a home in Chicago in March 2021 was $345,000, up 7.8 percent compared to March 2020 when it was $319,950.
Historic data courtesy of G:
City of Chicago condo/TH/SFH closed totals March
year/closed/median/% REO-Short Sales
Year Closed Median %REO/SS
1997 1,226 $126,875
1998 1,540 $137,003
1999 1,766 $152,125
2000 1,793 $167,500
2001 1,800 $195,000
2002 2,112 $210,000
2003 2,261 $225,000
2004 2,772 $244,950
2005 2,822 $271,125
2006 3,000 $275,862
2007 2,399 $285,000
2008 2,098 $300,000
2009 1,219 $217,000 37%
2010 1,860 $207,750 38%
2011 1,481 $163,763 49%
2012 1,630 $170,500 44%
2013 1,894 $187,500
2014 1,875 $235,000
2015 2,173 $260,000
2016 2,149 $269,000
2017 2,546 $295,000
2018 2,343 $310,500
2019 2,062 $290,700
2020 2,123 $319,950
2021 2,877 $345,000
What is striking is that the number of sales surpassed even the hottest of the housing bubble March numbers of 2004 and 2005 and trailed only 2006 for an all-time high.
“In March, the demand for homes remained high, with the condo market picking up steam, resulting in a 44.6 percent increase in sales and 2.8 percent increase in median sales price for attached homes,” said Nykea Pippion McGriff, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and vice president of brokerage services at Coldwell Banker Realty.
“It’s important to work with your REALTOR® to discuss different property types to see what the best options are at your price points.”
Condo sales rose 44.6% to 1957 sales while single family home sales jumped 19.5% to 920 homes.
The single family home median price rose 22.3% to $315,000 while the median condo price gained just 2.8% to $365,000.
Statewide, inventory declined 53.2% to 23,381 homes from 49,946.
In Chicago, inventory declined 13.1% to 7,404 from 8,521 homes.
Statewide, number of days on the market fell to 46 from 62 days last year. In Chicago it fell to 44 days from 47 last year.
For the second month in a row, the average 30-year mortgage rate actually rose month-over-month to 3.08% from 2.81% in February.
It was still below the March 2020 rate of 3.45%.
“The housing sector recorded strong month-to-month and year-over-year changes in March in both sales and prices,” said Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, emeritus director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the University of Illinois.
“The main concern in the coming months will be the low inventory levels, currently 1.5 and 1.3 months at current sales rates in Illinois and Chicago respectively. The strong growth in the pending sales index suggest that demand remains strong with buyers facing a very competitive market.”
March 2021 seems to have taken the Chicago housing market to the next level.
But with inventory at record lows, will sales growth stall in the coming months?
Where does the market go from here?
Illinois home sales and prices shift higher in March [Illinois Association of Realtors, Press Release, April 22, 2021]
Of course year-over-year sales soared. The world shut down for a few weeks in March 2020.
But March ’20 numbers were higher than March ’19. The shutdowns had not yet affected closings, which would have gone under contract in Jan/Feb.
Looks like a duck, smells like a duck, sounds like a duck.
Its very simple it is a duck.
“But with inventory at record lows”
Curious on what peoples thoughts are on what a “healthy” amount of inventory looks like these days i.e. normal times not Covid craziness.
Conventional wisdom in the industry is 4 – 6 months but with the adoption of technology throughout the process over the last 5 – 10 years plus a percentage of buyers ok with virtual tours is the 4 – 6 months of 10 years ago equivalent to 2 – 4 months or 3 – 5 months today?
“The shutdowns had not yet affected closings, which would have gone under contract in Jan/Feb.”
You honestly don’t think that people pulled out of their contracts when the world shut down, the stock market crashed and major industries were seriously disrupted?
Fully admit that the condo sales floored me. Not sure who’s buying but good luck, you’ll need it
Can we get rid of the median number as any sort of meaningful measure? There’s a pretty signifigant swath of the economy (MC and down) that hasnt been privy to the recovery.
“It was still below the March 2020 rate of 3.45%.
For the second month in a row, the average 30-year mortgage rate actually rose month-over-month to 3.08% from 2.81% in February.”
It was still below the March 2020 rate of 3.45%.”
Looks like you’re picking the absolute bottom rate were nominally a 1/4 point higher in February and March
So playing the monthly payment game, Condo’s are still a depreciating asset
“Conventional wisdom in the industry is 4 – 6 months but with the adoption of technology throughout the process over the last 5 – 10 years plus a percentage of buyers ok with virtual tours is the 4 – 6 months of 10 years ago equivalent to 2 – 4 months or 3 – 5 months today?”
Conventional wisdom in the industry – First mistake using anything where >90% of the industry is dumb and lazy. You’d think that they’d realize churning and burning would put more $ in their pockets, but these arent in general really smart people
Depends on which side of the table your on – Sellers should be happy with low inventory as it should increase $ and decrease time on market. Buyers should want max inventory as more options and more leverage
4 to 6 months to sell sucks if you arent getting corp relo.
“You honestly don’t think that people pulled out of their contracts when the world shut down, the stock market crashed and major industries were seriously disrupted?”
Obviously not. March 2020 closings were 2.8% higher than 2019.
“a pretty significant swath of the economy (MC and down) that hasnt been privy to the recovery”
How about it – I know a bunch of people still scrapping by, getting odd jobs for cash, waiting to be evicted, one guy is a chef at a starred restaurant that’s only open 3 nights a week and essentially BK and hasnt paid staff fully or purveyors for months. The owner is hoarding cash before he finally pulls the plug. Meanwhile other people are literally making more than ever, working beach side from Florida and partying like there’s no tomorrow. I know a tech bro doing big data analytics from wherever he can get wifi, just traveling the country for the last year like a kid on extended vacation. One PE guy I know bought a chain of dental practices for no other reason than he could get a few million in PPP money and said they are the most profitable business to own. Dude just increased his cashflow by hundreds of thousands per year with zero risk with money he didnt even need. Welcome to the New World Order, reward for no risk and poverty for working. This can not and will not last.
Sabrina, where was the picture in this post taken?
“Can we get rid of the median number as any sort of meaningful measure?”
We certainly should. Especially when there are people who write about real estate for a living who can’t even explain what it is correctly.
(yes, I’m still hung up on Rodkin’s “The median sale price is the midpoint among sales of all amounts.” But perhaps I’m being unfair, and the term he doesn’t understand is “midpoint”, which is basically a number-line concept, and is the mean of the extremes. Using Redfin’s last month sales, the Chicago midpoint is $947,500, between 152 W Huron St #700 for $1.85m, and 10639 S La Salle St for $45k, while the 3 month midpoint is over $2m.)
“4 to 6 months to sell sucks if you arent getting corp relo.”
Is the measure from list to close, or list to contract that eventually closes? one of those is a more accurate measure, but also harder to track.
“Welcome to the New World Order, reward for no risk and poverty for working. This can not and will not last.”
Thats a feature, not a bug.
“We certainly should. Especially when there are people who write about real estate for a living who can’t even explain what it is correctly.”
Rodkin’s a mouthpiece, not a journalist.
He’s little better than JoeZ and Sabrina
“Can we get rid of the median number as any sort of meaningful measure?”
A more meaningful metric would be a weighted average, taking into account the number of sales at each price point.
“a weighted average”
Won’t that skew high?
The median isn’t affected by the top 1% being $1.5m or $15m, but any sort of mean would be. And ultralow prices just can’t have the same effect, bc there is a lower limit.
Data presented in price ranges–like the low/mid/high Case-Shiller uses–would be more illuminating, even tho the C-S high range for Chicago is ridiculously low–under $300k.
Good to see that this site is still here! I used to post here back in the day (email address as changed, Sabrina). I never thought I’d seriously consider leaving Chicago and moving to the suburbs. I am permanently working from home at my current job and never want to work in an office again, so the suburbs are looking quite nice. I still have my condo in University Village and have a lot of equity in it. Condos in this area seem to go under contract quickly if they are priced well. Some languish, but I think those have asking prices above reality. Good to see that condos are still selling when looking at the big picture in Chicago, but I’m concerned about the spike in single family home prices.
I don’t want to buy at the top of the market for single family homes and end up selling in 10 years for less than I paid. On the other hand, I’m getting really tired of this city and thinking that moving someplace quiet would be nice. I’m thinking of Evanston, Wilmette, or Kenilworth. The former 2 seem very expensive YoY. I’m seeing a few properties languishing in Kenilworth, which is why I’m considering it. Taxes are frustratingly high everywhere in the Chicago area, but I’m willing to put up with it to continue to live in a state where women still have basic civil rights. Reading some comments from previous posts talking about people moving to Indiana (or other red states) and I can’t imagine moving someplace where I’ll lose civil rights. I think the religious and political extremism will always hold Indiana (and other red states) back from attracting college graduates. So far, among my liberal city friends, no one is even considering moving to Indiana.
” bought a chain of dental practices for no other reason than he could get a few million in PPP money”
So the reason he received the PPP was that his existing business was down. Not really free money plus to get it forgiven there were terms. I know because I was a recipient in round one. But since our business was not down enough we were not able to qualify for round two. So that story sounds great but sure has a smell to it…….
“You honestly don’t think that people pulled out of their contracts when the world shut down, the stock market crashed and major industries were seriously disrupted?”
What you don’t remember the “flatten the curve” soundtrack they played over and over and over and over. This should only take a month. We just need to flatten the curve so that our hospitals are not overrun.
Yeah, way back in March 2020 it was still a bit unknown. I recall that the St. Pats Parade getting cancelled seemed to be quite a surprise. People had a somewhat causal attitude. By late March people were encouraged to stay home but not to wear any masks.
“Sabrina, where was the picture in this post taken?”
Madeline: It’s in Lincoln Park in the alley where Armitage dead ends at Racine.
“How about it – I know a bunch of people still scrapping by, getting odd jobs for cash, waiting to be evicted, one guy is a chef at a starred restaurant that’s only open 3 nights a week and essentially BK and hasnt paid staff fully or purveyors for months.”
It will improve for the hospitality industry over the next 6 months. If we can reach 75% vaccinated, most of it should return to full capacity limits more or less.
Whether or not they can find the employees to work is another story. Every restaurant I walk by or go in now has signs saying they are hiring. All shifts. All jobs.
Many hospitality workers have moved on to other industries (who can blame them?). Job openings now at 2 year highs again. In some states, like Idaho, where unemployment is already back under 4%, they are going to have a really hard time finding anyone to work these “low” paying jobs. Wages are going to have to rise significantly.
If nothing else, they have to compete with Amazon, Target, and Walmart that are paying $14 an hour nationwide- and higher.
“Obviously not. March 2020 closings were 2.8% higher than 2019.”
People don’t remember that the real estate market was already heating up before COVID hit. And yes, March 2020 was a strong month in Chicago. Those contracts were all entered into prior to the shutdown and, apparently, those buyers weren’t thinking they should pull out and wait on the sidelines.
April, and even May, will show the lockdown weakness last year, however.
But it was amazing how quickly even that dissipated.
“For the second month in a row, the average 30-year mortgage rate actually rose month-over-month to 3.08% from 2.81% in February.
It was still below the March 2020 rate of 3.45%.
Looks like you’re picking the absolute bottom rate were nominally a 1/4 point higher in February and March”
This average comes from the Illinois Association of Realtors. I have cited it for years so we have a pretty consistent record of what it has been “averaging” now going back a while.
I really don’t care where they are “picking” the highs and lows from, as long as it is the same method they’re using every month.
Condos are going under contract like hotcakes all over the city except downtown.
Just a reminder, most Chicago buyers on the North Side are priced out of buying a single family home. You either buy that $700,000 3/2 condo (or townhouse) or you move to the suburbs because you’re not finding a single family home for $700,000 in most of the GreenZone neighborhoods.
And so, buyers in that price range, are willing to buy the city condo versus moving.
It’s a strong endorsement of city living, actually. Especially coming out of a pandemic.
I’ll go out on a limb and say, about downtown condo sales, that it’s not the pandemic which is hurting that market, it’s the looting, the boarding up of stores/restaurants, and the threat of more looting that is making it the second choice for buyers.
The neighborhoods have gone back to pre-pandemic life, for the most part. Even have fans back in Wrigley now.
Buyers just seem more certain about living there than they do in a downtown high rise.
I also have no problem arguing that the “city is dead” argument is now over.
It’s not true in Chicago, NY, DC, Boston, LA, San Francisco or New Orleans.
Has the housing market slowed in the city centers in all of those cities? Yes.
But it’s coming back. In some cases it will likely roar back over the next 6 months.
Those who bet against the cities were wrong.
“But it’s coming back. In some cases it will likely roar back over the next 6 months.”
What happened to “roaring back” come May? You are slowly inching your way to agreeing with me. I mean there were no shutdowns like you incorrectly predicted again…..
“it’s the looting, the boarding up of stores/restaurants, and the threat of more looting that is making it the second choice for buyers.”
Or the fact that not much has re-opened yet including workers having to go back into the office in the loop along with the potential of unrest. Also, thought you said this was done and no one is worried about looting along with everything booming how there were lines outside of every restaurant it was so packed and “hot”.
“Even have fans back in Wrigley now.”
20% or 8K compared to 95%+ or 38K – 40K. Quite the difference…..
“It’s a strong endorsement of city living, actually.”
I’m confused people are scared of looting and boarding up or strongly endorse looting and boarding up that they want to live by it?
“If we can reach 75% vaccinated, most of it should return to full capacity limits more or less.”
I would read the reopening guidelines. It says all will reopen with no capacity limits once 75% of 16+ year olds are vaccinated.
“Wages are going to have to rise significantly.”
Or they just need to wait for federal extended UI benefits to expire come September. Also, would help if fear mongering about every new variant could be vaccine resistant would stop when studies prove otherwsie.
“If nothing else, they have to compete with Amazon, Target, and Walmart that are paying $14 an hour nationwide- and higher.”
Restaurant and hotel employees all of a sudden flocked to becoming warehouse, cashier, retail, and delivery driver employees? Ok…. Some of them probably most of them I doubt it. And the ones that did probably are making the same if not less at $14 hour with no tips. If anything they probably now have some health care coverage which they likely appreciate but that’s offset by lower take-home-pay.
Let’s see what happens when more people in the <35 age group are vaccinated, expanded UI dries up, and fear mongering about some variant potentially being vaccine resistant runs its course in the news cycle. Kind of how showing crowded beaches doesn't have the same effect today as it did a year ago since you don't get Covid outdoors at the beach even if you don't wear a mask. Science. Shocking.
WP – When this is all said and done and rational people have time to parse the data, Il, MI, NY, most of the blue northern states are going to look like complete fools for the devastation they caused to their economies. You need to travel the country first hand or have access to real time data like sales receipts by zip code to more to understand the implications right now, a lot of people are doing that right now, and those lockdown states will need an entire generation to recover from their self flagellation over the slightly bad respiratory virus and that cant happen without major voting pattern shifts. The D governors and congress people played their hand and showed themselves to be aligned more with facist dictatorships than a free republic and people are saying fuck you to them by the hundreds of thousands with their feet and wallets. Businesses are following. Creepy old guy aint going to be able to bail this mess out. These lockdown states deserve the shit pile they made. I loved Chicago and IL but I’m embarrassed to live among such covid pussies now. And that doesnt even touch the whole woke nonesense and Kim Foxx. The census data this week should be eye popping and thats mostly pre-covid. Post covid is far worse.
I’m still betting on Chicago. We have a lot going for us, despite the taxes. We have restaurants, entertainment, museums, culture, and a beautiful city. The city is relatively affordable compared to other blue cities. I am glad that we locked down. The industries most impacted will recover. I expect prices in restaurants to increase because the owners will have to pay higher wages (as they should). I think condo prices may dip as more people move out to the suburbs in the near term.
Will people be happy in the suburbs long term though? I don’t know if I would be happy in the suburbs long term. Visiting vaccinated friends in the suburbs, we’re so limited in our restaurant choices. Even just looking to order pizza, we had just 2 choices of restaurants (one of which was a chain). Some suburbs don’t even have a single grocery store or a coffee shop (Kenilworth).
Going out to drink with friends, if you live in the suburbs, you have to pay a ton of money for a rideshare to get into the city. I doubt we’ll see independent bars/restaurants popping up in the suburbs (except perhaps Evanston).
I just don’t think suburbs have much to offer other than peace and quiet, which does sound appealing. I don’t think I can stomach buying at the top of the market though and I can’t afford a single family home with lots of nearby amenities.
“suburbs have much to offer other than peace and quiet”
All those driveways with basketball hoops, tho.
And how about the shrubberies all over the place?
Oh, man … Sabrina, sometimes I read the things you post and wonder if you (and the other CribChatterers here) have ever been south of Roosevelt. Lots of development going on in areas other than the “green zone” (which let’s face it, should really be the “white zone,” because that’s the actual racist meaning in terms of how it’s applied here).
“All those driveways with basketball hoops, tho.”
This is seriously a concern for me. My friend lives next door to a kid that bounces a ball for hours on end. It would drive me crazy. I checked to see if any suburbs banned basketball hoops from drive ways and can’t find any. What is so fun about bouncing a ball for hours on end by oneself? It’s madness. Hoping after the pandemic kids go back to being over-scheduled.
“This is seriously a concern for me. My friend lives next door to a kid that bounces a ball for hours on end. It would drive me crazy. I checked to see if any suburbs banned basketball hoops from drive ways and can’t find any. What is so fun about bouncing a ball for hours on end by oneself? It’s madness. Hoping after the pandemic kids go back to being over-scheduled.”
A lot of kids really are loud and annoying, basically from about the 6 to 13 year-old range, it seems. I guess it depends whether you want to have yards/driveways adjacent with with them for a period of time (you’re bound to have a stretch of years where neighbors have babies or teens, or no kids in the house), or share a hallway and other common areas in a building with them. I suppose an upside of building-living under that comparison is the adults aren’t using power tools on the weekends or having their exteriors worked on loudly or leaf blowers and mowers cranking all the time. And its seems only in rare cases is dog barking an issue in buildings. I plan to reopen our pandemic pool next weekend (decided to winterize and use it for one more summer), and I know for certain that a couple of child-free (and some with kids) nearby homes won’t be super thrilled for its return. Seriously considering making some preemptive goodwill gestures with wine/gift baskets or something.
“Oh, man … Sabrina, sometimes I read the things you post and wonder if you (and the other CribChatterers here) have ever been south of Roosevelt.”
All the time Juiceman. See recent posts on Kenwood and Hyde Park.
But I think many of the Chatterati have never been to the south side nor even west side neighborhoods like Galewood.
I recently had a friend ask, after the controversy about the mayor moving into a “mansion in Sauganash” where that was. He had no idea. Has lived in the city for 15 years but just doesn’t care outside of his north side hang outs.
And, no, the term “green zone” doesn’t mean “white zone”. Please search for it in the search bar for reference about why we use the term “green zone” on this site. It’s been explained many times why we use that term.
“Stay in the city, where you belong. You shouldn’t be anywhere with families around, and you poisoning well-adjusted children with your hate speech, odious views, bad posture, etc.”
Just a reminder, HH doesn’t live in Chicago. I don’t know what poor city has to tolerate him, but it’s not Chicago.
And I feel like Jenny can take care of herself just fine where HH is concerned so that’s all I’ll say.
Lol.
“The census data this week should be eye popping and thats mostly pre-covid. Post covid is far worse.”
Come on.
No one is surprised by the census. No one.
Except maybe that California lost population.
Baby Boomers have been retiring for the entire decade and will continue to do so. Those that lived in the “north” are moving to the sunshine states. Has been happening for forever.
Yet somehow, if “post covid is far worse” – housing inventory has declined over 50% statewide over the last year.
Lol.
Someone is buying real estate in Illinois. Go figure.
“What happened to “roaring back” come May? You are slowly inching your way to agreeing with me. I mean there were no shutdowns like you incorrectly predicted again…..”
It’s already happening. People are back in Wrigley. The tourists were here for spring break. Architecture tours full.
Crappy Chicago weather is hitting though. Lol.
Illinois has vaccinated 37% of the population now. More capacity will open once we get past 50% and positivity rates come down.
The city is going to explode with activity this summer and the rest of the year. GDP at 6% or 7% during that time. Concerts coming back, new restaurants opening.
Once again, the bears on this site are literally ROOTING for the country to fail. Why? What is WRONG with all of you?
“Restaurant and hotel employees all of a sudden flocked to becoming warehouse, cashier, retail, and delivery driver employees?”
Yep. Other employers are more attractive. Jobs everywhere. Some even give out stock options and health care now.
It’s not extended UI. That ended for 4 months last year. Did those people suddenly go to work at the restaurants? No. Although for some who are on it again right now, it IS a way to keep themselves safe, and alive, instead of working at a restaurant where no one where’s masks and everyone is eating indoors. Good for them. Our essential workers shouldn’t have to die to pay their bills.
They have CHOICE. And they are saying, “this job sucks and this pay sucks too. I’ll go somewhere else.”
Happens every time in a booming economy.
California landscaping services are paying $20 an hour to start. This is similar to the California farmworkers getting 401ks that we discussed on this site a few years ago (maybe 2017?).
It’s going to be even tighter now. Over 500,000 people are dead. Those workers no longer available either. Many others in the hard hit professions will quit and change jobs (doctors, nurses, school teachers.)
Get ready. Job market is going to be CRAZY over the next 12 months.
Where IS Bob the Bear anyway?
He always disappears whenever the hot monthly sales numbers come out.
Go figure.
What?
Downtown condos are selling again, you say?
If you’re looking for a deal, you’d better hurry. Still plenty of inventory but it’s not going to last forever as many are figuring out that the city is about to reopen in a big way.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/real-estate/ct-re-covid-chicago-downtown-condo-market-20210416-leiseihfwvh6bguljtlu5latl4-story.html
Lauren Trisler was ready to buy her first home and knew she wanted to stay near Chicago’s West Loop.
She figured she could find a one-bedroom condominium with a den and keep her payments under $3,000 a month. Instead Trisler, 29,purchased a two-bedroom, two-bath condo in Greektown in February that was within her budget, with plenty of space for her boyfriend, dog and two cats.
“It’s like the only positive thing to come out of COVID, was the falling (downtown) housing prices,” she said. “Because I don’t think any other time I could have gotten this much bang for my buck, quite frankly.”
“Lots of development going on in areas other than the “green zone””
By the way, this has been true since I started this website.
But every time I write about them, no one cares, so I try and cover the housing people want to chatter about.
If that means the mansions in the Gold Coast, than that means the mansions.
I’m excited to see all the development in Bronzeville. The Gap is a hidden gem. I hope more investment goes into that neighborhood.
“The tourists were here for spring break.”
Whaatt? Hotel occupancy has been ~30% during April whereas the same time frame in 2019 was ~70%. The tourists went to Florida, Texas, Nashville, North Carolina.
“Crappy Chicago weather is hitting though.”
April’s weather was pretty good for Chicago. A weekend and day here and there sucked but overall pretty good. 70+ and sunny two days in a row. Do you live under a rock?
“More capacity will open once we get past 50% and positivity rates come down.”
JB said yesterday we should enter the bridge phase next week assuming metrics continue where they have headed the last few weeks. Like I said it would be a slight bump and we would quickly level out and decrease once we get past 25% vaccination.
“GDP at 6% or 7% during that time.”
On a two year compounded basis it’s 2 – 3% GDP given last years negative print. HOT.
” Concerts coming back”
What concert is back in Chicago? I see everyone pushed their stuff until August/September but most have no line-up yet. If concerts are allowed at reduced capacity will the operator still go threw with the show as it might not be profitable at only 50% capacity. This isn’t sports with TV and Radio distribution deals
“Once again, the bears on this site are literally ROOTING for the country to fail.”
The country will be fine. The city meh like i’ve said better last year far from where we were in 2019. The city will be better come 2022. I don’t what comment implies failure of the country.
Also remember Lightfoot said we would re-open slower than the rest of the State. She hasn’t provided any guidance so we will have to see if she is bluffing.
“Other employers are more attractive. Jobs everywhere.”
This comment shows how aloof you are. Jobs are everywhere but not because other employers are more attractive.
“It’s not extended UI. That ended for 4 months last year. Did those people suddenly go to work at the restaurants?”
Extended UI was further extended until September 6th 2021 at $300 per week in Bidens package. Further, if you are a parent you got up to $10K if you have kids plus the stimmy checks.
Those people aren’t working. Go look at the U-6 UI which is still >10% compared to ~6% in 2019. People aren’t working.
“They have CHOICE. And they are saying, “this job sucks and this pay sucks too. I’ll go somewhere else.”
Correct they have a choice but they are saying I can stay home collect extended UI, stimmy check, and checks if they have kids instead of making the same if not less going back to work.
From the KC’s FED’s Manufacturing Survey yesterday:
“For the biggest risks affecting business plans over the next year, 60% of firms indicated the lack of qualified workers”
“The federal government has incentivized people to stay home and not be productive.”
“Stimulus and increased unemployment money are wrecking the labor pool. Lower level employees are quitting to make just as much not working.”
“Unemployed workers have no incentive to return to work given the COVID bonus payments.”
Yeah I’ll trust what the FED is reporting over Sabrina gawking nonsense.
“California farmworkers getting 401ks”
Huh? The people working the fields don’t get benefits let alone minimum wage. We have a broken immigration system by design.
“Over 500,000 people are dead. Those workers no longer available either.”
182,000 people in nursing homes died. I don’t think nursing home residents were looking for work and 438K people over the age of 65 have died. If anything there should be a WalMart greeter shortage if your hypothesis held any weight. Instead you are saying people are leaving there jobs to work at WalMart.
https://www.kansascityfed.org/surveys/manufacturing-survey/tenth-district-manufacturing-activity-expanded-further/
“Over 500,000 people are dead. Those workers no longer available either.”
the average age of covid deaths is older than the average life expectancy… a huge chunk of them haven’t been working for years already you fucking moron
I’d say that there are more people working for those people that died than actually died…
“Except maybe that California lost population.”
Where’s that in the census data?
“the average age of covid deaths is older than the average life expectancy”
Cite, please.
well, it used to be able to find, guess the powers that be scrubbed it from the intertubes
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/
80% of Covid deaths are over 65 years old.
@ Sonies… funny.
You can tell from the data that average covid death exceeds typical life expectancy. Just even looking that close to half the deaths are in LTC facilities combined with age and other mortalities should bear that out…
Media hysterics has the Branch Covidians thinking 30 year olds are out jogging on Monday and collapse and die from Covid on Friday.
“80% of Covid deaths are over 65 years old.”
Can we calculate the average based on that information?
Also: US life expectancy = ~78.5
2019, all US deaths = 2,854,838; Deaths over 65 = 2,117,332. That’s 74.1%.
With that additional information, can we yet conclude that the average age at covid death was over 78.5?
hmmm.
It’s not just death from covid that is concerning. One friend of mine in her 30s is still dealing with after effects from “long covid,” 9 months after she caught it. I am glad I was able to work from home and was able to avoid catching it. Younger people going out and catching covid end up spreading it to those at a higher risk of death from covid. I would hate to have a death on my conscious.
Most of my friends are planning trips in the near future. My parents are on vacation with friends right now with more trips planned. People are starting to go places again now that they are fully vaccinated. I think the country is going to come roaring back.
“Baby Boomers have been retiring for the entire decade and will continue to do so. Those that lived in the “north” are moving to the sunshine states”
It’s millenials and zoomers going to college out of state in droves. Pritzker’s answer yesterday when asked about the census:
“And I looked very closely at the numbers of people, who they are, where they come from, why they’re leaving and what you see when you look at the out-migration is actually the largest portion of the population that was moving out were young people who were choosing to go to college out of state because they couldn’t afford to go to college in Illinois,” he continued, highlighting things like MAP grants and other initiatives to make college more affordable for Illinois residents.”
https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/chicago-politics/illinois-could-lose-at-least-1-congressional-seat-with-census-bureau-set-to-release-population-data/2495383/
“actually the largest portion of the population that was moving out were young people who were choosing to go to college out of state because they couldn’t afford to go to college in Illinois,”
Does Gov Lard Ass know of some states where the out of state Tuition is less than illinois in-state?
Illinois Exodus Numbers Were Spectacularly Wrong:
https://capitolfax.com/2021/04/27/the-illinois-exodus-numbers-were-all-spectacularly-wrong/?
” Concerts coming back”
Looks like more virtual ones. Chosen Few Picnic which draws 40,000 people going virtual again. Yep. Booming.
https://blockclubchicago.org/2021/04/26/chosen-few-picnic-canceled-in-person-for-2nd-straight-year-virtual-event-set-for-july-3/
“What concert is back in Chicago?”
check out City Winery. Live music on the schedule this month.
“Illinois Exodus Numbers Were Spectacularly Wrong:”
(i) this is citing the Tribune’s reporting as wrong/fear mongering, (ii) the dates of the Tribune headlines are over the last 5 years whereas the decennial census is once every 10 years. The first 5 years we were growing the last 5 years we have shrunk. The rate of decline has been increasing.
The Tribune has as much of a right-wing bias as Capitol Fax has a left wing bias.
I’m not sure what the point of your post is.
I’m not sure what the point of your post is.
An interesting blog post that I thought people would enjoy reading?
What is the “point” of any of the posts in this thread?
“Does Gov Lard Ass know of some states where the out of state Tuition is less than illinois in-state?”
Dude, we *all* know examples, bc it’s in the news over and over again:
Missouri State o-o-s tuition starts out the same (within a couple hundred bucks) as SIU/Illinois State, and they waive the o-o-s portion (52% of total) on meeting any one of these 4 standards:
24 ACT or 1160 SAT or GPA of 3.25 or higher or Top 50% of class.
UW-Milwaukee is about $1k less than SIU/Illinois State for IL residents, and then provides another $1k automatic ‘scholarship’.
Yes, Flagship to Flagship, it’s definitely more expensive for o-o-s, but as we hear here all the time–no one actually gets into those schools anyway, so why worry about it?
yeah wow, you’re in great company there with West Virginia and Mississippi as the only 3 states to lose population over the last 10 years… lol
“check out City Winery. Live music on the schedule this month.”
City Winery is a chain. Looks like you are buying a ticket to watch a livestream concert and they are requiring you pay at least $40 on food & drinks. Hopefully it works out for them. But paying to watch a “livestream” is not the same as a concert or live music.
Saturday’s show – livestream in Chicago. Concert is actually in Nashville
April 30th – Carnegie Hall isn’t in Chicago
May 9th – Looks like it actually is live but capped at 50 people
The economics of a live concert at 50 people don’t signal to me that concerts are back.
Maybe a live cover band when it’s consistently warm enough outside at a bar/restaurant rooftop in May or post Memorial Day but anything major looks like they remain in waiting mode.
https://citywinery.com/chicago/
“It’s not just death from covid that is concerning. One friend of mine in her 30s is still dealing with after effects from “long covid,” 9 months after she caught it.”
long covid is bullshit, its just anxiety… tell your friend to get a xanax prescription
and for Russ, there was a study done in the UK i think (can’t find it again, probably scrubbed from the fucking internets) about people estimating how many died because of covid and the average person was off by a factor of nearly 200 times
which with the fear mongering media and people’s absolutely shitty math ability isn’t really all that surprising.
I don’t think the Tribune’s story about Lauren Trisler’s purchase cited by Sabrina evidences the claim that:
“If you’re looking for a deal, you’d better hurry.”
Trisler bought unit 4B at 812 W. Van Buren, which
Sold April 2016 = $390,000
Listed for sale 4/21/20 = $475k
Price lowered 4/22/20 = $450k, -5.3%
Price lowered 5/22/20 = $439k, -2.4%
Price lowered 6/24/20 = $430k, -2.1%
Price lowered 8/06/20 = $419k, -2.5%
Sold Feb 2021 = $400,000 -4.5%
By delaying her purchase, ignoring those advocating “you’d better hurry,” Trisler watched the ask price steadily decline, a total of 16% from original ask, and bought a condo — with “updated kitchen”, “bathrooms updated with new vanities and custom tile work” and “Newer mechanicals” — for a price only 2.5% higher than its 2016 price.
Is Trisler’s story — cited by Sabrina presumably because she thinks it confirms her belief that buyers “better hurry” — evidence for hurrying or delaying one’s DT condo purchase?
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/812-W-Van-Buren-St-APT-4B-Chicago-IL-60607/3873628_zpid/
Available data doesn’t fit my expectations, therefore it must be a conspiracy to hide the data.
“An interesting blog post that I thought people would enjoy reading?”
Meh looks like click bait for political junkies trying to dunk on right-wing outlets. Hey dumb Tribune we only lost 18K people. We showed you.
I mean the people that bought-in to the Tribunes thinking of the “Exodus” are low-information narrative seeking people/voters to begin with when population is only going down by <0.25% per year for a a couple of years after being up by <0.25% the each year the previous 5 years. It's a political Rorschach test that will continue. Illinois will likely ebb and flow population like it has for the past 20+ years.
The Tribune provided click-bait for their readers with those headlines just like CapFax is providing click-bait for its readers with posts dunking on the doom & gloom trolls. It doesn't serve much purpose.
Bottom line Illinois losses more political representation, clout, and federal dollars. The Dems and GOP in this State don't know what to do outside of trying to turn it into a culture war with dumb headlines to feed their respective bases.
“Media hysterics has the Branch Covidians thinking 30 year olds are out jogging on Monday and collapse and die from Covid on Friday.”
——————————–
Don’t make me return the telescope I just bought.
“812 Van Buren… “Newer mechanicals””
I would guess that the “newer” was from before the ’16 purchase. Newer than the ’97 conversion, but not terribly new. Solid decade of expected life left, except maybe the HW tank, if they went cheap.
“Does Gov Lard Ass know of some states where the out of state Tuition is less than illinois in-state?”
What most people do is they pay out of State for a year live in the College town for a full academic year + the summer break and then get in-state since they have lived their for a year. Huge saver.
Pritzker’s plan is to lower tuition tax credits parents get for sending their kids to a private school in Illinois. Got to help the unions I guess.
https://www.wandtv.com/news/proposed-tax-credit-cut-could-impact-private-education-for-low-income-students/article_f82278bc-72fa-11eb-bb4e-a767981fca5d.html
“you’re in great company there with West Virginia and Mississippi as the only 3 states to lose population ”
————————————
Perhaps I date myself, but Mississippi is not a state, it is a condition
BriBri, when did Galewood become a “west side” neighborhood. I still consider it Northwest side
“Don’t make me return the telescope I just bought.”
Greater fool you–Earth is Flat, donchaknow?
“City Winery is a chain. Looks like you are buying a ticket to watch a livestream concert”
there’s several locations and still some live stream shows. You can buy ticket to live shows now at the West Loop location. Check 4/29. It’s a live concert.
Cook County is at 37% of adults fully vaccinated. It’s going to take a few more weeks for things to really take off. We might have to wait until next summer for concerts in large stadiums because of the planning involved in large stadium concerts. People are desperate to go out again though. Only in the past week or so has the vaccine become easy to get. Give it a month to 6 weeks and the city is really going to be different.
“long covid is bullshit, its just anxiety… tell your friend to get a xanax prescription”
I’m interested in the medical research you studied to draw this conclusion.
As soon as Madeline linked to Capital Fax, I instantly knew she was that dufus Oswego Willy.
Gary, is the Lancet good enough four u?
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(21)00084-5/fulltext
Published:April 06, 2021
6-month neurological and psychiatric outcomes in 236?379 survivors of COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study using electronic health records
Interpretation:
Our study provides evidence for substantial neurological and psychiatric morbidity in the 6 months after COVID-19 infection. Risks were greatest in, but not limited to, patients who had severe COVID-19. This information could help in service planning and identification of research priorities. Complementary study designs, including prospective cohorts, are needed to corroborate and explain these findings.
homedelete: I’m not aware of your medical credentials, but in my glance at the article you cite (and I’ll admit I’m no expert), to me it doesn’t back up your notion that Long-Term COVID-19 is simply a case of anxiety or something a Xanax would take care of.
What it is saying (and lots of people are reporting) is that the impact of COVID-19 can be to a number of organs, including the brain, and the long term impact of the very-real (not anxiety-produced) impact on the brain needs further study.
Interesting article on bay area residents moving to Tahoe during the pandemic and the culture clash with locals:
https://www.outsideonline.com/2422318/tahoe-zoomtown-covid-migration
[Note: I am posting this because I think some of you might not have seen it and might enjoy reading it; I hope that is ok with the self-appointed guardians of what’s acceptable to post and by whom]
WP,
Last two years I went to the chosen few were some very humid sweat through your underwear days. I don’t recall it had 40,000 plus at attendance but it might have grown to that the years I didn’t go.
I think I posted on the wrong thread, oops
“I’m interested in the medical research you studied to draw this conclusion.”
there have been medical research studies done on this, if you want to find it, go look. I don’t have the time right now to find it as anything anti covid or anti lockdown gets memory holed by the big tech search engines. Its there I promise, I’ve read it.
also this jenny is a fake, literally reads like sabrina posting lol
unless she fell and hit her head, or maybe the vaccine turned her into a NPC or something
Madeline, that is happening all over the country. People are moving to areas that are normally considered second home / vacation towns. WSJ had an article about Cote d’Alene, Idaho being the hottest real estate market in country right now.
Seems like any area that is somewhat rural and has a reasonably developed town with amenities is hot.
“is the Lancet good enough”
Yes, intercranial hemorrhage, stroke and parkinsons can all be effectively treated with a xanax. You all deserve a Noble Prize.
Yes, the largest outcome cohort is, indeed, anxiety.
No, this was not a study of “long covid” sufferers–only covid+ people.
Yes, thinking one might die alone *will* cause many people to report ‘anxiety’ symptoms. Yes, those people might well benefit from a xanax, or just get over it in another 6 months.
No, again, there is no suggestion there that this was focused on those with “long covid”.
Madeline, that is happening all over the country. …Seems like any area that is somewhat rural and has a reasonably developed town with amenities is hot.
I kind of love the neologism “zoomtown” to describe such places.
“Cote d’Alene, Idaho”
What will happen to the black helicopter locals? Oh, noes!!
“I hope that is ok with the self-appointed guardians of what’s acceptable to post and by whom”
I approve of your post lol. As your article shows and Russ points out with Idaho I imagine these are happening and are likely to continue to happen in many towns/smaller cities across the country.
“ “They’ll say, ‘I want all the screens out of the house,’”
And after a week these shitbirds will be crying about the bugs and are back to wanting a Starbucks, Lululemon & Potbelly
They already fucked up Bozeman.
“What will happen to the black helicopter locals? Oh, noes!!”
I’m sure the culture clash between the long time locals and Silicon Valley / California newcomers will be epic… might make for some good TV.
Many of the articles I’ve seen highlight the clashes as the newcomers often have a different culture and expectations than the locals in many of these areas when it comes to politics and even just social norms.
“ also this jenny is a fake, literally reads like sabrina posting lol
unless she fell and hit her head, or maybe the vaccine turned her into a NPC or something”
Agreed
She couldn’t go 2 posts w/o commenting about bathrooms and explosive diarrhea
Zillow is reporting listings surged in March across the country. I wonder if this is starting to occur here as well.
“The 1.1% monthly decline in inventory was the smallest since July 2020, and follows much larger monthly drops of 7.5% and 8.1% in February and January, respectively. Locally, inventory was actually up month-over-month in March in 19 of the nation’s 50 largest metros — up from 0 large metros that experienced monthly inventory gains in February.”
“New listings nationwide rose by 30.0% in the four weeks between late February and late March.”
https://www.zillow.com/research/march-2021-market-report-29350/
“Zillow is reporting listings surged in March across the country. I wonder if this is starting to occur here as well.”
“inventory was actually up month-over-month in March”
I get that they’re really comparing the Feb-March numbers to the Jan-Feb lack of increase anywhere, but March is historically the start of the earnest buying season, so I think it’s still more surprising that 31/50 had no increase in inventory.
At least in the City, if you measure by months of inventory, rather than raw numbers, it was clearly *down* a lot in March.
“there have been medical research studies done on this, if you want to find it, go look. I don’t have the time right now to find it as anything anti covid or anti lockdown gets memory holed by the big tech search engines. Its there I promise, I’ve read it.
I swear I read some medical research a while back that says there is evidence that aliens are slowly invading our bodies. If you don’t believe me go look but it might be hard to find because the alien overlords have taken over our technology and are burying the truth.
the fact that you deny leftist/big tech censorship means I am wasting my time conversing with you
“so I think it’s still more surprising that 31/50 had no increase in inventory.”
The previous month had 0/50 though compared to the prior month. The starting point matters especially with the context of total listings being down so much to start the year. With the pandemic starting to wane in March and vaccination campaign ramping up people who wanted to list last year but didn’t want to move during the peaks of Covid and/or prior to vaccination may be more comfortable listing now. It will be interesting to follow these numbers for April and May to see if it is the start of a trend.
I’ve heard anecdotally from friends in the market that their realtors believed listings would start to increase in the area by May. Will be interested to follow and see if this comes to fruition.
Rodkin and Crains now writing articles about “a wave of foreclosures coming”. Queue Sabrina comment on how that won’t happen for years….
“”It’s not going to be good, but it’s not going to be on the scale of the Great Recession,” says Geoff Smith, executive director of DePaul University’s Institute for Housing Studies, who has been on the foreclosure beat before the housing crash and recession of the mid-2000s.
It’s likely not going to be good in Chicago. All six counties in the metro area are among the 10 percent of U.S. counties “most vulnerable to the economic impact of the pandemic,” according to Attom, a California property data firm.”
“He forecasts that between 2.5 and 3 percent of homeowners will default after the moratorium lifts. That’s compared to 5 percent in 2007-08, he says.
Prior to the pandemic, “we were at 0.9 percent, very healthy,” he says”
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/residential-real-estate/wave-foreclosures-coming-heres-what-could-look
” All six counties in the metro area are among the 10 percent of U.S. counties “most vulnerable to the economic impact of the pandemic,””
I bet that has near perfect overlap with the 10% (342) most populous US counties. 4 of the 6 are in the top 100, Kane is about #180, and McHenry is about #280.
And they have a pretty good idea–even tho the Lenders can’t enforce or ding anyone’s credit for non-payment right now, they still know exactly how many borrowers are 90+ days late.
“It’s likely not going to be good in Chicago”
Add one less person who will be buying up inventory. Just signed a lease to move to Florida at the end of the month. Everywhere I looked there, new construction all over the place. Florida is booming! Wide open too. Less deaths per million from corona even with a MUCH older population. Because we locked down every public place, people went to one another’s homes instead and got sick. Not the case in Florida. How many additional people died in states run by Blue Governors because “orange man bad”? I’ll let you pick up my portion of the states government pension crisis and budget shortfall. Good riddance. Why would you invest in Chicago real estate when you can grow your money much quicker in Texas, the Carolinas, Florida, Denver, and Seattle.
“Why would you invest in Chicago real estate when you can grow your money much quicker in Texas, the Carolinas, Florida, Denver, and Seattle.”
Jobs.
Drive into town on the Kennedy. Look at the cranes in that skyline. One Chicago Place is MASSIVE. And the St Regis is a dominant player on the skyline now.
Chicago is one of the top global cities. Talent is here.
Florida IS booming. No city in Florida has Chicago’s job base however. You’ll notice it after about 6 months to a year of living there.
NY, Chicago, LA, SF.
It’s shocking what economic engines these superstar cities are.
Also, I love it how the bears are still trying to say things are “bad” in Chicago right now when the city is reopening and, literally, is busting out and is going to boom.
From the NYT which has been keeping track of this data.
Are all the top states “blue”? Many are. But some of the worst are not.
Here is a breakdown of COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 people in all 50 U.S. states and Washington, D.C. The data was last updated April 30.
Note: These are the latest numbers available. The list includes ties.
New Jersey: 287
Population: 8.9 million residents
New York: 266
Population: 19.4 million
Massachusetts: 255
Population: 6.9 million
Rhode Island: 252
Population: 1.1 million
Mississippi: 242
Population: 3 million
Arizona: 238
Population: 7.3 million
Connecticut: 227
Population: 3.6 million
Louisiana: 223
Population: 4.6 million
Alabama: 222
Population: 4.9 million
“ Are all the top states “blue”? Many are. But some of the worst are not.”
Yeah, only the top 4. And it’s not like anything coming out of New York is remotely believable
Thanks Baghdad Bob
“Florida IS booming. No city in Florida has Chicago’s job base however. You’ll notice it after about 6 months to a year of living there.“
I’m sure folks said the same thing about Austin & Nashville 5 years ago
“ It’s shocking what economic engines these superstar cities are”
Then why aren’t Chicago home prices growing as fast as any of those cities / states?? Oh, because we’re run by incompetent elected officials who cater towards criminals rather than hard working, law abiding, tax paying, community oriented citizens. Property tax, income tax, sales tax, and fees are smothering people’s discretionary budgets.
Just look at the case shiller values of Chicago vs any city outside of Cleveland / Detroit. Enough said.
Here’s a bloomberg article about where people moved:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-citylab-how-americans-moved/?
Uses the same USPS information as the NYT article last week, but this one has fun interactive graphics!
Because it uses change of address, there is some weirdness in the data. Example: in the interactive map, if you click on Phoenix, it looks like a shit ton of people are moving from Phoenix to Chicago, when what’s really happening is a normal seasonal shift of snowbirds.
“the St Regis”
I thought you liked to call buildings by their original names?
“folks said the same thing about Austin [] 5 years ago”
2003 called, I told them you were here.
“Oh, because we’re run by incompetent elected officials who cater towards criminals”
I think that’s a little bit of a harsh take on public employee unions and bond holders. Not totally unfair, but a bit harsh.
any city that has a Soros/OpenSecrets backed/appointed DA is going to be a crime infested, terrible place to live
“Are all the top states “blue”? Many are. But some of the worst are not.”
The ones that are not have the highest obesity rates in the country.
Per the CDC Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana obesity rates are >35%.
Being fat kills. Lay off fried gator and Twinkies.
Oh and these states are all in the top 5 for smokers as well. Fat and smoke what a combination for a respiratory virus.
https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/prevalence-maps.html
““folks said the same thing about Austin [] 5 years ago”
2003 called, I told them you were here.”
Not going to disagree that Austin has seen growth > 5years, but a 4% growth in a MA of <1MM people Vs 2MM people isnt the same IMO
Thats immaterial to SabrinaZ's point about needing t0 have a population base to grow.
https://nahbnow.com/2021/04/skyrocketing-lumber-prices-add-nearly-36000-to-the-price-of-a-new-home/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Social2021
Interesting that this hasn’t hasn’t translated to increasing existing home prices in Chicago.
Its almost like Chicago is so HAWT ™ that its immune to market forces.
“any city that has a Soros/OpenSecrets backed/appointed DA is going to be a crime infested, terrible place to live”
Yep, Glencoe and Winnetka are crime infested, terrible places to live.
“Yep, Glencoe and Winnetka are crime infested, terrible places to live.”
why did you skip out on Baltimore, St. Louis, and our very own favorite Kim Foxx?
“our very own favorite Kim Foxx”
Who do you think is the DA for Glencoe and Winnetka?
“Yep, Glencoe and Winnetka are crime infested, terrible places to live”
Well to get technical yes Glenco, Winnetka, and Kenilworth are VERY crime infested and by the worst type of criminals, ‘men in suits’. Those a**holez have done far worse to society than an idiot gangbanga doing petty crimes.
So yeah you are more likely to get mugged for your petty cash, credit cards (which you will cancel asap), watch, and android phone in the City of Chicago. But those ‘men in suits’ in Glencoe/Winnetika/Wilmette have already robbed you of your future, taken two thirds of your retirement cash, and are going to continue taking even more.
Crime is relative, just ask a cousin.
“Are all the top states “blue”? Many are. But some of the worst are not.”
“The ones that are not have the highest obesity rates in the country.”
Thanks for confirming the data WP.
It clearly doesn’t matter if a state is red or blue. COVID kills all the same. Political party analysis is irrelevant.
“Then why aren’t Chicago home prices growing as fast as any of those cities / states??”
They are. If you bought in the West Loop 15 years ago, you’re crushing it.
Same in Southport. Same in Ukrainian Village. Same in Bucktown and Logan Square.
All depends on what areas have been hot.
Chicago has a lot of land. It can build and it has been. But in the hot SFH neighborhoods, prices have soared.
By the way, I was at a barbeque in the suburbs this weekend and all anyone was talking about was real estate. Whew- it is red hot. Even a basic split level in Elk Grove Village is getting 10 to 15 offers.
It’s incredible.
There’s simply NO inventory.
“I’m sure folks said the same thing about Austin & Nashville 5 years ago”
5 years ago?
Nah.
Intel opened up in Austin in the late 1990s. And it’s the state capital so it’s always had a more diverse workforce, and businesses, there (along with the university.)
Nashville job market STILL sucks. Still way too small unless you are going there for healthcare jobs. They had a lot of insurers and the like move there so they have those jobs now. You can forget about tech, really. Even with Amazon Second HQ.
TikTok is apparently eying a Fulton Market office. Would bring 150 jobs to Chicago over the next 3 years.
Florida doesn’t have the university firepower to become a true economic player.
It doesn’t have a single top 50 global research university.
That matters.
Highest and best offers due.
This is common all over the city.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/3201-N-Ravenswood-Ave-60657/unit-202/home/13384487
“They are. If you bought in the West Loop 15 years ago, you’re crushing it.
Same in Southport. Same in Ukrainian Village. Same in Bucktown and Logan Square.
All depends on what areas have been hot.”
So you’re saying if you bought at the absolute bottom of the market, you’ve “crushing it”?
Wow your insight is very smart
“It clearly doesn’t matter if a state is red or blue. COVID kills all the same. Political party analysis is irrelevant.”
You made it political. Why is Florida so low?
“You made it political. Why is Florida so low?”
Nope. That was MikeHG who said he was moving to Florida because the red states handled Covid better.
But they didn’t.
Blue or red. It didn’t matter. The top states are a mix of red and blue. Nothing about the governor’s political affiliation tells you what happened with the death rate.
According to WP, obesity and smoking rates also played a factor. And, we know, density of that state’s large cities also impacted. Also, where the virus first hit also impacted.
But, again, there is no statistical evidence supporting the statement that red states somehow did “better” than blue states.
Currently, Los Angeles has not had a single COVID death for the last 2 days. Last I looked, it had a democratic mayor and governor. But who cares?
Totally irrelevant. The virus doesn’t care.
“So you’re saying if you bought at the absolute bottom of the market, you’ve “crushing it”?”
Nope.
15 years ago was during the housing boom. That’s 2006. The “bottom” was just 9 years ago. We aren’t even a decade past that.
But like every city, Chicago has had red-hot neighborhoods where prices have doubled. And it has had some neighborhoods where that hasn’t happened.
Same with the suburbs. Until last year, you couldn’t give away a house in Lake Forest. But you could in Park Ridge or Oak Park.
But I’m not going to keep going over the same story about the housing market that nearly everyone on this site already knows JohnnyU. It pays to actually live in Chicago to understand what has gone on with housing prices.
There’s a reason most Millennials are priced out of the north side housing market for single family homes and are either buying condos or moving to the suburbs.
Home prices have soared in those neighborhoods, pricing out many home buyers.
“ 15 years ago was during the housing boom. That’s 2006. The “bottom” was just 9 years ago. We aren’t even a decade past that.”
That doesn’t jive with the properties you post, with the exception of properties that have had significant capital expenditures. But you’re almost smart enough to realize that’s not an apples to apples comp.
Should be able to find links to all these properties that are “crushing it”
It’s difficult understanding your thesis from day to day – millennials either are priced out of SFH, want the freedom of apartment life, driving the city housing boom. Pick one story Sybil and stick to it for more than a couple of days
Here’s a SoPo, under contract, that belies the assertion.
Yes, the *current* seller is going to do pretty well, but it’s only $100k over the 2005 price, and has had more than $100k in upgrades since ’05.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1342-W-Melrose-St-60657/home/13382190
Even if we *ignore* the updates, and call them normal household maintenance, $100k over 16 years ain’t great–indeed, $1.55m + CPI = $2.06m, meaning that place is well *behind* inflation, rather than the historical CPI + (25-50 bp) that Chicago real goes up.
Even if we go under the historic a bit, and just round up the average ’05-’21 CPI from ~1.79 to 2, this place should be $2.13m–so they’re “losing” $500k (23.5%) compared to “normal”, which sounds more like “it killing them” than “them killing it”.
“Should be able to find links to all these properties that are “crushing it”
Sold in 2005 for 430k, under contract in a few days. listed at 699k. from what I’ve been told it’s over list. still needs a decent amount of work.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/2126-W-Homer-St-60647/home/13356432
I bought in Southport (condo) in ’03, sold in ’18, updated it some while I owned it (including some last minute things for a sale), and while I was perfectly fine with the amount I sold it for (especially since I had a lot of equity), it didn’t “crush it.” It slightly beat inflation. I did a lot of looking at what happened to prices over that general time period when I was planning to sell, and unless you are in a neighborhood which significantly gentrified over the period (which Southport did not), prices increased largely in line with inflation.
I think the market is somewhat hotter now, but I’m not convinced that’s reflective of anything other that specifics about this very moment. I’ve been helping someone who has been looking, and a lot more places (at least less expensive ones) seem to be selling fast and above listing with multiple offers.
But I also don’t think there’s any reason to want the market to be extra hot or to want prices to go up significantly above inflation. That the Chicago market is a lot more reasonable than various other cities is a good thing in my view.
“still needs a decent amount of work.”
I’ll say.
I don’t get the value proposition there–I don’t see how you get something like this:
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/2047-W-Homer-St-60647/home/13356651
For ~$100k of updates, even with a ton of DIY.
Yes, I understand that this is the *only* place on the market in the immediate area, but it still seems like a bad choice to me.
“Blue or red. It didn’t matter.”
If it didn’t matter why did and do some states put restrictions on but some didn’t or had significantly less?
“According to WP, obesity and smoking rates also played a factor.”
According to science not WP.
“and, we know, density of that state’s large cities also impacted.”
No we don’t. What study shows this? If by denser you mean more public transportation reliance than maybe. However, these cities had more restrictions compared to less dense areas/states and you said above “Blue or red. It didn’t matter” But just density itself is not true.
“Also, where the virus first hit also impacted.”
Data please. It didn’t just “hit” one place in the US. The one place it started was in China. People travel to China and travel from China to various locations. We still don’t know when Covid first came to the US. We know when the first test came back positive and where but that doesn’t tell you much when a significant portion of cases are asymptomatic
“Currently, Los Angeles has not had a single COVID death for the last 2 days. Last I looked, it had a democratic mayor and governor. But who cares”
Apparently you care since you cited it.
“Totally irrelevant. The virus doesn’t care”
I think the virus cares if you are vaccinated or not vaccinated. Feel free to stick with talking points.
“Currently, Los Angeles has not had a single COVID death for the last 2 days. Last I looked, it had a democratic mayor and governor. But who cares? ”
and are still shut down like its march 2020… WHY?
“WHY?”
Lemme guess: Soros?
“Sold in 2005 for 430k, under contract in a few days. listed at 699k. from what I’ve been told it’s over list. still needs a decent amount of work.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/2126-W-Homer-St-60647/home/13356432”
Nice return, though I dont know if id consider it “Crushed”.
Probably need to define “Crushing it”. 1.5X CPI or multiple of C-S?
But since the Market has been HAWT ™ for a while, it should be easy to find properties that exceed this return, no?
I think I’d have to punch myself in the face if I bought that place for >$700k
“WHY?”
Lemme guess: Soros?
Racists Latino (who will never be white) cops trying to murder a teacher?
“I think I’d have to punch myself in the face if I bought that place for >$700k”
With the intent to live in it yourself, even after (or, rather, *especially* after) putting in ~$200k to make it nice.
If that isn’t a price for the dirt, I’ll be surprised. But people have been doing dumb stuff.
Sonies, You are wrong about LA being locked down. Get the facts, or just don’t lie to suit your narrative, or perhaps look for other news sources.
I was there last month: outdoor dining, beaches and boardwalks open, baseball stadiums open, Disney, Universal Studios, 6 Flags all open.
This article is from MARCH, https://apnews.com/article/los-angeles-california-coronavirus-pandemic-41154240aacd29f1c78a5e2ce57cade6
“and are still shut down like its march 2020… WHY?”
Huh?
I thought LA opened months ago, including dining etc. Disneyland, which is in Anaheim, finally reopened a week ago. People have been at Dodgers games, haven’t they?
California has the lowest positivity rate in the nation. Less than 1% statewide.
Go figure.
Didn’t see that coming after their horrible winter outbreak. But then, Michigan has been setting new daily death records (not surprising as its cases peaked again a few weeks ago and deaths are always delayed.)
Florida positivity is still over 5%.
A lot of things about COVID doesn’t make any sense.
But we know Covid outbreaks, or lack thereof, have nothing to do with red or blue states.
“If by denser you mean more public transportation reliance than maybe.”
Density WP. You know, a lot of people living in close quarters where the virus can spread easily. High rises. Elevators. The French Quarter bars. You know, density.
“I think the virus cares if you are vaccinated or not vaccinated. Feel free to stick with talking points.”
Wrong.
It doesn’t care until there is herd immunity like in Gibraltar and Israel.
Look at what’s going on in the US right now.
Washington State is postponing its reopen for 2 weeks because the number of cases is on the rise again, especially in King County where Seattle is located. But King County has fully vaccinated 44.2% of all adults.
Conversely, Cook County has only fully vaccinated 34.1%. Our cases continue to decline. For now, we’re on track for a full reopen by Fourth of July weekend.
Why aren’t we getting another outbreak in Chicago?
Weather has been crappy here (I don’t know what it is like in Seattle right now). Have they been spending more time inside? If anyone has, it’s those of us in Chicago. Back into the 50s and 40s at night. Can’t really eat outside again.
Nothing with COVID makes much sense except that if you use the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine and get to 75%+, you see a significant decline in hospitalizations and death.
Otherwise, the virus doesn’t care. And, yeah, I don’t care what LA is doing with COVID deaths (heard it on the radio though as that’s a HUGE accomplishment in a city of that size.)
Hooray! Another good sign we’re moving in the right direction.
“That the Chicago market is a lot more reasonable than various other cities is a good thing in my view.”
Agreed Stephanie. It’s a huge draw for the city that the middle class can still live here. That home ownership is still a possibility.
“Pick one story Sybil and stick to it for more than a couple of days”
My views of the Chicago housing market have never changed.
1. Millennials are marrying and having children. The largest age group is now 28-32. The pandemic happened so that forced them to make changes quickly. They wanted outdoor space and to buy. Most are priced out of the GreenZone so they fled to the suburbs, buying up all the inventory. Others are staying in the city, but buying condos.
2. GenZ is even larger than the Millennials and they are now graduating from college. They will head to Chicago (and all the other major cities.) They went to school during COVID and aren’t scared to live in downtown highrises. They will get the vaccine and the cities will boom again. If you didn’t get your apartment deal in the last year, it’s now too late.
3. Chicago will boom, as will the rest of America, over the next few years. Chicago’s housing market will remain hot for several years due to lack of inventory and strong demand from Millennials. Eventually, developers will build more than just luxury 3-bedroom $1 million condos. But until they do, there will not be inventory.
Demographics don’t lie. This housing bull will be similar to that of the Baby Boomer’s bull.
We have entered into a multi-year bull market in housing. Chicago home prices will rise simply due to supply and demand metrics. As will Illinois home prices, in general. Illinois inventory is down over 40%.
“Back into the 50s and 40s at night. Can’t really eat outside”
WTF? Can’t eat outside because its *50*?
Just move to Arizona already.
“WTF? Can’t eat outside because its *50*?”
Yep. 50s with cold wind blowing off the lake isn’t really “eat outside” situation and at night it’s back in the 40s. Ugh.
With capacity limits lifted, most Chicagoans are back to eating indoors again. Most restaurants are crowded indoors.
That’s my point.
If any city should be having another COVID outbreak, it’s Chicago. But we’re not.
Because no one knows why COVID does what it does.
Why isn’t Texas seeing a big outbreak? They lifted all restrictions weeks ago and are just 25% vaccinated.
But they aren’t either.
“1. Millennials are marrying and having children. The largest age group is now 28-32. The pandemic happened so that forced them to make changes quickly. They wanted outdoor space and to buy. Most are priced out of the GreenZone so they fled to the suburbs, buying up all the inventory. Others are staying in the city, but buying condos.}
They wanted outdoor space, yet bought a condo? You can’t stay consistent in a single paragraph
You’ve also said that they’d never leave the city
“ 2. GenZ is even larger than the Millennials and they are now graduating from college. They will head to Chicago (and all the other major cities.) They went to school during COVID and aren’t scared to live in downtown highrises. They will get the vaccine and the cities will boom again. If you didn’t get your apartment deal in the last year, it’s now too late.”
These are the same ones you were whining about going to spring break, no?
2 mo free – https://www.apartmentguide.com/apartments/Illinois/Chicago/Lofts-at-Gin-Alley/100034883/
I’d post more links but it’s not allowed
“ 3. Chicago will boom, as will the rest of America, over the next few years. Chicago’s housing market will remain hot for several years due to lack of inventory and strong demand from Millennials. Eventually, developers will build more than just luxury 3-bedroom $1 million condos. But until they do, there will not be inventory.”
Maybe, inflation is starting. If the Fed starts tightening, you’re going to see a lot of millennials underwater and the what’s it going to cost per month crowd is done
You should ask yourself why developers aren’t building sub $1MM condos.
So no list of places crushing it?
“Millennials are marrying and having children“
Lowest number of births in America in 35 years even though our population is much larger. Data from 32 out of 50 US states has found that the nation’s birth rate in 2020 fell by more than 4%.
In December 2020 alone, California saw 10% fewer births and Hawaii saw 30% fewer than the previous December.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56288038.amp
You’re not even trying anymore. Nothing you say makes any logical sense. Why are you advocating for people to purchase real estate in Chicago when property taxes, sales taxes, and income taxes will eat a significant portion of any gains they see. They could go down to FL, TN, TX, or Out to WA, CO, UT, or NV and see real gains. Plenty of tech jobs in TN with Amazon having their HQ2 there. Nasdaq is opening their new office in Miami. Corporations have figured it out. Their employees can get more for their buck in all of these states.
“If that isn’t a price for the dirt, I’ll be surprised”
I doubt it’ll be torn down. Land value is closer to 550k here. Lots are shorter at 100′ deep.
“Plenty of tech jobs in TN with Amazon having their HQ2 there”
Per Sabrina’s earlier comment “Nashville job market STILL sucks.”… unless it’s healthcare.
I was there about a month ago you couldn’t walk a block without seeing a new development under construction. I remember being there 5 years ago and seeing the cranes everywhere. There’s the same amount now if not more. It’s quite something.
Corporate relocations of entire businesses or specific units within the company continue to occur. Alliance Bernstein moved from NY to Nashville, UBS continues to expand US centralized functions.
Nashville could turn into a logistics hub as well. Has rail already, centrally located, with FedEx and UPS nearby as well.
The tech companies are starting to come too.
Here’s the growth Nashville has had just the past two years:
“24 businesses relocated to Nashville in 2020, compared to 38 in 2019. Frist said he expects that trend to reverse, partly because COVID-19 is pushing more companies out of Silicon Valley.”
That’s pretty impressive. But remember per Sabrina the job market sucks.
https://www.newschannel5.com/news/tech-company-ceo-announces-move-to-nashville-predicts-growing-tech-scene-in-middle-tennessee
I know for a fact a couple of the places featured on CC in the past year were owned by folks who moved/moved-with their company to Nashville.
If someone guesses right, I’ll confirm.
“I doubt it’ll be torn down.”
I’m sure you’re right, but–having dealt with updating a less-sad-than-that-place house, if they aren’t doing most of the labor themselves, they’re going to spend $200k+, and, as I said, I don’t see the value proposition at that point.
“I was there about a month ago you couldn’t walk a block without seeing a new development under construction. I remember being there 5 years ago and seeing the cranes everywhere. There’s the same amount now if not more. It’s quite something.”
Yeah- job market still sucks WP. I’ve been there too. My best friend lives there. They are building everywhere. It’s fantastic for the city. But it’s awful. Traffic is terrible. There are drunks running around downtown. There’s no public transportation. And the job market sucks. The city is still small. It’s only slightly better than New Orleans as far as jobs.
Sorry. It’s awful.
Healthcare is good. The universities are big job creators so if you want to work at one of those, there are options. Tourism and the music industry are good.
When Amazon finally does open it will add a few thousand jobs.
I had a friend driving a tour bus there and he was paid $20 an hour because no one else could pass the drug test. Lol.
Yeah- it sucks. If you want a tourism job, probably better than New Orleans in some ways. But apartment rental prices are really soaring there now. So, again, it sucks. And you MUST have a car. Or forget it.
But that’s why the salaries are less. And the housing prices are lower.
“Lowest number of births in America in 35 years even though our population is much larger.”
Sorry MikeHG. Millennials are the largest generation in US history. They WILL form families. If they don’t have kids, then they don’t. But they WILL buy real estate. It’s inevitable. It’s destined. It’s what EVERY generation does.
They have been delayed compared to the Boomers and GenX because they are marrying later (average age is 28-30). So now, gasp, the largest birth year group of them are 28-32 and, gasp, they are getting married, forming families and having kids.
And now, gasp, the housing market is on fire as this generation buys.
It’s happening nationwide. Yes, even in Chicago and the Chicago suburbs.
And they haven’t built enough housing. So home prices WILL rise.
We are in a multi-year bull housing market.
I know it’s hard for the 10-year long bears to wrap their heads around. Housing moves in cycles. We are out of the bear now. We’re in the bull. And things are going to be really good for home owners for years.
And it’s about time Chicago and the suburbs joined in.
Last month was the best month for new home sales in April since 2008 in the Chicagoland area. They can’t build them fast enough.
The home builders really aren’t prepared for the demand that is still to come.
“These are the same ones you were whining about going to spring break, no?”
Millennials aren’t on spring break. They’re too old.
“ “These are the same ones you were whining about going to spring break, no?”
Millennials aren’t on spring break. They’re too old.”
You were talking about GenZ rummy, not Millennials
You have issues
“ Sorry MikeHG. Millennials are the largest generation in US history. They WILL form families. If they don’t have kids, then they don’t. But they WILL buy real estate. It’s inevitable. It’s destined. It’s what EVERY generation does.”
Hardcore shill logic
Is there a rabbit boiling?
“There are drunks running around downtown.”
Six drunk females where five have the same pink shirt and the other has a white shirt is called a bachelorette party. Tell your friend to stay off Broadway and Printers Alley and find a local bar.
“Traffic is terrible”
Do you live in Chicago?
“There’s no public transportation.”
They have a bus system. Also, depending on where you live the weather is pretty good year round you can walk. If neither of these are options you drive it’s called a trade-off.
“It’s only slightly better than New Orleans as far as jobs.”
Are you judging this based on tour bus openings? It’s comical comparing the job market of New Orleans to Nashville. Nashville UI 4.3%, New Orleans 8.0% per St Louis FED. Per the census bureau New Orleans median household income $41K, Nashville $60K. 50% more poverty in New Orleans as well. What a comparison.
“But apartment rental prices are really soaring there now.”
define soaring. Germantown and The Gulch sure but again like you said most people drive. Go 10 minutes outside the hot neighborhoods it’s not soaring.
Also, if the job market sucks but there’s new construction on every block, rental prices are “soaring”, and there was no qualified applicants to operate a tour bus sounds like someone must have a good job making good money or you have no idea what you are talking about because you contradicted yourself.
“But that’s why the salaries are less”
Compared to New York or Chicago… sure the Analyst at Alliance Bernstein is making $90K with a 30K bonus instead of $100K – $120K + 50K bonus in Manhattan.
People that make $60K can actually afford their own apartment without roommates. Households that make the median salary of $60K can also buy a home. Sounds terrible.
“Households that make the median salary of $60K can also buy a home.”
Can do that here, too (Cook Median HHI~$63k). And not just in shitty areas, but nothing “hot”–just like in Nashtown.
“They have a bus system.”
No. They don’t.
Buses coming every 18 minutes on a few roads is not a bus system. PACE is better.
They want to put in light rail but because the state owns the roads it would go on they can’t. It’s total dysfunction. The city was never meant to be some epicenter of commerce and it shows.
Huge traffic jams. Everyone drives everywhere. Those moving from LA feel right at home.
“Also, if the job market sucks but there’s new construction on every block, rental prices are “soaring”,”
Retirees. Middle class jobs where people can buy middle class houses 40 minutes from downtown. Might not matter for some of them if they can WFH. But then you’re just in the middle of Tennessee nowheresville.
Good times.
Downtown Nashville has been a COVID disaster. They don’t control the bachelor or bachelorette parties. Total disaster.
“ Downtown Nashville has been a COVID disaster. They don’t control the bachelor or bachelorette parties. Total disaster.”
Chicago doesn’t control the house parties in any neighborhood. There have been 200+ people parties every weekend here in every neighborhood. That’s why our covid numbers are terrible compared to the rest of the country.
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Excess-Deaths-Associated-with-COVID-19/xkkf-xrst/
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/03/31/actually-data-dont-suggest-anything-unusual-about-floridas-excess-death-toll/%3foutputType=amp
Nate silver even pointed out that states like Florida are below average compared to the rest of the country in excess deaths since covid started. States like IL that have locked everyone in their homes have had more deaths because people just go over to their friends homes instead.
“Chicago doesn’t control the house parties in any neighborhood.”
Whine, whine, whine MikeHG.
What do you care about what is happening in Chicago?
Are you going to be HH, JohnnyU, Homedelete and others who don’t live in the Chicago city limits and go on and on complaining about it?
You’ve left for paradise.
Rock on.
“200+ people parties every weekend here in every neighborhood.”
I’d like to think I would have been invited to at least one of the North Center raves, if this had actually happened over 50 times.
It’s more like “social media posts about talking to a neighbor on their porch from the sidewalk, and how that’s evidence that richie rich wants the little people to all die” around here.
“Middle class jobs where people can buy middle class houses 40 minutes from downtown.”
So like Chicago?
“But then you’re just in the middle of Tennessee nowheresville.”
Or as in Chicago you are in Niles i.e. nowheresville?
“No. They don’t.
Buses coming every 18 minutes on a few roads is not a bus system. PACE is better.”
Sabrina claim – they don’t have a bus system. Sabrina then says they do have a bus system but the bus system isn’t good enough. Ok Sabrina way to lose creditability on that one.
Further, the voters rejected light rail. The voters clearly didn’t want that. The Mayor and city council just passed a $1.8Bn transit package this past December. Half of which goes to expanding bus service.
” Those moving from LA feel right at home.”
You are seriously comparing Nashville traffic to the 405? I don’t which comparison is worse. This one or saying Nashville’s job market is the same as New Orleans.
“Downtown Nashville has been a COVID disaster. They don’t control the bachelor or bachelorette parties. Total disaster.”
Yet Tennessee’s cases and deaths per capita are less then Illinois so……
Davidson County (Nashville) total Covid deaths 933 or 0.13% of the population.
Cook County total Covid deaths 10,575 or 0.21% of the population.
Nearly double the deaths per capita in Cook County compared to Davidson County but Davidson County is the “disaster”.
I’m Pro-Chicago too. We have our issues which I point out but good lord sometimes I think you live in North Korea with the Pro-Chicago nationalism and the hermit mindset of never realizing other places might be doing better than us in certain areas. Just no basic critical thinking.
“Many hospitality workers have moved on to other industries (who can blame them?).”
Today’s job report i.e. Facts do not support your opinion. Literally the only private sector that added a material number of jobs this past month was leisure and hospitality.
Guess what industry lost jobs – Retail Trade which you thought everyone was flocking to as they left their hospitality job.
It’s amazing the amount of times you are wrong and just how wrong you are. Literally the opposite of what you say is true is usually in fact true.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/07/where-the-jobs-are-april-2021-chart.html
here’s another recent prediction by Sabrina that is quickly turning out to be dead wrong. 6 weeks ago:
“What inflation?
Only a few signs of it due to supply chain challenges. Those should go away in the next 6 months.”
It was first national publications warning inflation was coming. Intel CEO on 60 minutes chip shortage is going to take years to figure out.
Last week Warren Buffett “we are saying substantial inflation across all of our businesses”
Now it’s the local press. CBS Chicago has had articles on Uber price inflation due to lack of drivers and articles by from local taco restaurants in Little Village saying every ingredient is costing them more.
Today Bloomberg: Those higher prices food makers have been warning about for months? They’re here—and at restaurants, too.
“Seafood prices are up 18.7% on average in the 13-week period ended April 24, while baked goods like doughnut and rolls cost about 7.5% more than in the same period last year, new data from NielsenIQ show. In fact, 50 of the 52 categories tracked by the data provider are more expensive than a year ago, with only butter and milk holding essentially flat while everything around them skyrockets.”
“Everyone is looking to offset higher transportation costs, higher labor costs and higher input costs. And that flows through the whole chain all the way to the consumer,”
article quotes CEO of ALbertson’s who owns Jewel Osco:
“When there’s a shortage in supply, it makes no sense to promote aggressively,” Vivek Sankaran said in an April 26 interview. “That’s why you see inflation in some categories. It just makes no sense to play with price at this point.”
“It has the prospects of being tough and getting tougher as the year progresses. There is some residual stimulus out there, but as that is used up or has been saved, it will increase the pressure on consumers in terms of just their regular budget,”
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/consumer-products/just-about-everything-costs-more-grocery-stores
Local company Reynolds Wrap this week in Crains:
” the maker of the namesake aluminum foil and Hefty trash bags, is planning another round of price increases—its third in 2021 alone.”
“Our first round of price increases went into effect as planned, and a second round is underway with plans for a third round in the third quarter,” Michael Graham, chief financial officer, said in a statement as the company reported first-quarter results.”
“But with soaring input costs, including aluminum, and rising demand as many Americans cook more at home, the company said retailers and consumers were accepting the increases.”
Yeah, sure inflation only transitory. Another great call.
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/consumer-products/maker-hefty-bags-plans-third-price-hikes-2021
““Downtown Nashville has been a COVID disaster. They don’t control the bachelor or bachelorette parties. Total disaster.””
young people are not at risk, and I doubt old elderly sick people with 8 comorbidities are hanging out at the same bars they are going to
you authoritarians are insufferable douche bags… this is a GOOD thing that they let young people have freedom to do as they please, it is the CORRECT COVID POLICY.
And you calling it a disaster is hilarious as they have been far more successful with less people dying than your authoritarian shithole liberal cities.
“What inflation?”
Yesterday I went to a taco bell, first time in 2 years, and I swear it has to be double for that chalupa meal!!!!!
It totally was not worth what i over paid.
side note; Does anybody ever finish that ginormous drink they give you? half way through I already felt i needed to whizz.
“I doubt old elderly sick people with 8 comorbidities are hanging out at the same bars they are going to”
Umm, well, ummm thats really not how things like that work. Kind of missing the 6 degrees bacon.
Sonies, bro you have changed.
“Umm, well, ummm thats really not how things like that work. Kind of missing the 6 degrees bacon.”
Regardless of what our fear pandering media tells you, facts are that healthy people aren’t spreading disease… thats not how diseases work
“facts are that healthy people aren’t spreading disease… thats not how diseases work”
I didn’t realize that you went to a school that didn’t teach sex ed.
Or, you know, history–Typhoid Mary ring a bell?
It is *exactly* how many (but not all) communicable diseases work.
“that healthy people aren’t spreading disease… thats not how diseases work”
Thank you Dr. Phil, I didn’t know you turned that finance degree to a medical one.
Just calmly take off your tinfoil hat and put it next to the empty lays chip bag with your cellphone in it. Walk slowly away and take a few relaxing deep breaths, logic will start to come back and all will be right again.
“Thank you Dr. Phil, I didn’t know you turned that finance degree to a medical one.”
Funny, I learned this basic immunology shit in high school biology and also in the first few semesters of college when I was a Biology major. Are schools even teaching anymore, or are they just teaching useless bullshit… it seems as though everyone has lost their fucking minds in the last few years.
People aren’t even listening to Fauci at all if it fucks with their world view of what the media is yelling at you, and I quote Dr. Fauci himself saying “Asymptomatic people are not the main vector of spread”
the WHO agrees
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html
this shit has created a clown world where “science” is what the media tells you and facts and logic be damned
“it seems as though everyone has lost their minds in the last few years”
Thank you for using yourself to provide an example to your statement.
Sonies, you’ve changed brah.
“What inflation?”
Got a couple of quotes for a new fence, laughed at the guys and said F’ it, I’ll do it myself. Priced the materials and decided to wait a year.
“healthy people aren’t spreading disease… thats not how diseases work”
“I learned this basic immunology shit in high school biology and also in the first few semesters of college when I was a Biology major”
So, since you are clearly the expert:
Typhoid Mary was a hoax?
You can only get chlamydia from someone who is showing symptoms?
HIV is only transmitted by those with “full blown” AIDS?
Or are you now going to claim that anyone who is infected is definitionally “not healthy”?
One cool takeaway from the lockdown is that everybody is a scientific expert now
Saying that the science isn’t settled Or clear is no longer a viable response
“Got a couple of quotes for a new fence, laughed at the guys and said F’ it, I’ll do it myself. Priced the materials and decided to wait a year.”
LOL Same here, have 2 major projects to do on the house and a huge “honey do” list. Almost all I have postponed.
“Saying that the science isn’t settled Or clear is no longer a viable response”
Yeah, no one wants to hear “we don’t know” any more, but guess what:
Do we *know* whether most people can get covid a 2d time 36 months later? Nope.
Do we *know* whether a hypothetical 3d infection (if possible) will be minor? While immunology would indicate “yes”–we don’t know.
Do we *know* that further mutations will be more or less communicable or virulent? Nope.
Can we make reasonable predictions? Sure.
But do we–is it even possible for a rational, sane, educated person to believe that we should–*know* what will happen with the’rona? Nope.
So I keep saying it, when it comes up IRL: we don’t know.
Oh, but there is one thing related that we do know:
“Healthy” people can be disease vectors. Not all diseases, not all people.
But claiming that healthy people aren’t spreading disease… thats not how diseases work is Fake Fucking News.
science by definition is never settled
anyone that tells you otherwise is a lying propagandist
“Sonies, you’ve changed brah.”
maybe I’m just a sober person in a room full of drunks
Just posted my April update and indeed the Chicago real estate market is sizzling. In all likelihood April was an all time sales record, up 26.5% from 2019 – no point in comparing to 2020: https://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2021/05/sizzling-hot-chicago-real-estate-market-had-record-sales-in-april/
“Regardless of what our fear pandering media tells you, facts are that healthy people aren’t spreading disease… thats not how diseases work”
https://wjla.com/news/nation-world/scientific-consensus-again-shifts-on-asymptomatic-spread-of-covid-19
There is no logical reason that symptoms would be required to be contagious. Here is my anecdata: my wife caught it from her mother who was symptom free at the time. A day later her mother developed symptoms.
“In all likelihood April was an all time sales record, up 26.5% from 2019 – no point in comparing to 2020.”
Thanks Gary.
Whoa. Up 26% from 2019?
Yes- no reason to compare year-over-year for the next several months.
Any idea of the sales mix in May Gary?
Are condos still leading the sales charge?
I’m assuming the answer is “yes” as there are more condos on the market than single family homes. But the drop in even condo inventory is incredible.
It’s extremely tight out in the neighborhoods. Most of the condo inventory remains in the high rises downtown. Good luck trying to buy even a 1-bedroom condo in the hot neighborhoods like Logan Square, Bucktown or Ukrainian Village.
The only thing that is going to impact sales right now is lack of product.
Home prices should continue to rise with these kind of market conditions.
“Yeah, sure inflation only transitory. Another great call.”
Yawn. It is.
It will last 3 to 6 months while the supply chain normalizes.
This happened after the Great Recession as well. Just go look at the CPI for those years. Was transitory then as well.
“here’s another recent prediction by Sabrina that is quickly turning out to be dead wrong. 6 weeks ago:”
How could I be “wrong” about something that we’re still in the midst of?
It’s transitory inflation. Will last through the summer and then we’ll see.
CPI always rises after recessions and this was an abnormal one with a complete economic shutdown. It is not a gradual rebound type of recovery either, obviously. So it’s going to cause extremes on the shutdown (GDP dropping over 30%) and on the reopen.
Gotta get everyone back to work though. This is where it’s going to get interesting. The pandemic has changed everything. Going to be a lot of career changes and many women who stayed home with the kids are going to have to rejoin the workforce in some capacity.
Also, the media is reporting that nearly double the number of people who would have normally retired last year decided to retire. That’s a lot of extra people suddenly out of the workforce. A lot of experience and skills lost.
“Literally the only private sector that added a material number of jobs this past month was leisure and hospitality.”
300,000 jobs in one month doesn’t replace the millions who are out of jobs.
Think about all of those who work at McCormick Place. They haven’t worked in a year. You think they’re sitting around waiting for the reopen? Nope. A lot of them have moved on.
Same as those who worked at Wrigley, United Center, the Cell etc.
Most hotels haven’t hired back all their staff either as many hotels are still at 50% capacity.
Workers have choices now. They’re not going back to those hospitality jobs. It’s obvious WP.
You bears have been wrong about the cities and you’re wrong about the job market.
It’s why the restaurants in Montana can’t find anyone to work there. They have a 3.8% unemployment rate. Those workers have choices. They’re not going back.
“You are seriously comparing Nashville traffic to the 405? I don’t which comparison is worse.”
Um…I never said shit about the 405. Have you ever tried to drive from Santa Monica to Venice?
Yeah- Los Angelenos moving to Nashville feel right at home. Because those one lane roads around Nashville’s core are the same.
It’s terrible. A nightmare. And because there’s no transit, you HAVE to drive.
Ugh. No thanks.
“Are condos still leading the sales charge?”
Good point. Yes they are. They accounted for almost all the increase.
“ The only thing that is going to impact sales right now is lack of product.
Home prices should continue to rise with these kind of market conditions.”
JFC, you’ve been bleating for 6mo on how HAWT ™ the market is and lack of inventory. there’s been almost no appreciation.
You’re not going to see additional inventory until we see pricing appreciation that allows owners to move to the next tier.
You’re also fighting raising rates and owners investing in their properties for long term
It’s pretty telling that appreciation in Chicago hasnt kept up with building commodities
“300,000 jobs in one month doesn’t replace the millions who are out of jobs.”
It was 300,000 more than any other sector who also has millions that they laid off or furloughed.
“It’s transitory inflation. Will last through the summer and then we’ll see.”
Intel CEO says it will last for years but I guess you know more.
“CPI always rises after recessions and this was an abnormal one with a complete economic shutdown.”
Missed the previous post-recession time were lumber jumped 5x in a year. Feel free to educate me.
“That’s a lot of extra people suddenly out of the workforce.”
Like after every recession? The employment to population ratio has dropped for 20+ years.
Doode’s, what is up with traffic lately? especially on weekends, it’s 97% back to pre-lockdown levels.
I was so enjoying being able to zip around everywhere.
“what is up with traffic lately? especially on weekends”
Everyone decided to drive to the western burbs to visit their mom and then drive back to the city at the same time. Traffic was a disaster. I was quickly reminded why I don’t and won’t own a car in this city.
Traffic was horrible going up to the far north side on Saturday. Made me rethink my idea of moving to the suburbs. Saturday was the first time I’d driven north in ages. Maybe everyone had the same idea.
“CPI always rises after recessions and this was an abnormal one with a complete economic shutdown”
Highest CPI print since September 2008 – which was before not after a recession.
Post 08 there was not a “labor shortage” like there is today. There also wasn’t supply chain constraints or countries like China hoarding supply all at the same time.
There are still government imposed demand constraints (restaurants, entertainment, etc.) in certain sectors that will go away over the summer. They will have to restock at the same time that other companies are increasing their inventory levels due to supply chain issues.
There will be some sectors where inflation will be “transitory” but there will be plenty where this is going to last for a couple of years at least unless you are predicting consumers will reject price increases which seems unlikely.
The CPI number released today was a train wreck. As if we didn’t know prices are way higher for nearly everything because JPOW and company at the Fed are printing money left and right. Stop buying mortgage backed securities already. Let interest rates go higher to cool off the housing market.
Another “Bear” piece by Rodkin in Crains:
“Chicago has more households seriously behind on mortgage payments than in New York, Los Angeles and Dallas combined.”
“In the Chicago area, 8.6 percent of homeowners with a mortgage were seriously underwater at the end of the first quarter of 2021”
“The Chicago figure is the highest among the 20 largest metro areas in Attom’s study. In 15 of the 20, the figure is below four percent.”
“In the Chicago area, 18.4 percent of homeowners with a mortgage were equity rich at the end of the first quarter, according to Attom. In 15 of the 20 largest metro areas, at least 25 percent of homeowners were equity rich.”
“This goes a long way toward explaining the super-low inventory of homes on the market: A lot of people just can’t afford to put their home on the market.”
“In raw numbers, Chicago has about 159,400 households seriously underwater, more than New York, Los Angeles and Dallas combined.”
I’m sure “transitory inflation” will work out great for the 8.6% that have serious delinquent mortgages.
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/residential-real-estate/even-fast-rising-housing-market-many-cant-afford-sell-their-homes
“In the Chicago area, 8.6 percent of homeowners with a mortgage were seriously underwater at the end of the first quarter of 2021”
Would like to see the zip code list. Seems likely to still be topped by 60426 in/around Harvey, and have a ton of south suburbs on it. Nothing that happens (either way) there is going to have much of an effect on the housing market except very close-by.
“Nothing that happens (either way) there is going to have much of an effect on the housing market except very close-by.”
This type of thinking is debunked in the article via the below.
“In the Chicago area, 18.4 percent of homeowners with a mortgage were equity rich at the end of the first quarter, according to Attom. In 15 of the 20 largest metro areas, at least 25 percent of homeowners were equity rich.”
If it was only lower working class/service sector employee zip codes Chicago wouldn’t have a materially lower percentage of households classified as “equity rich” compared to the majority of large metro areas.
Saw this today:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/12/amazon-releases-new-images-of-hq2-as-it-ramps-up-hiring-in-virginia.html
and wondered why Amazon HQ2 is hiring in Virginia, since I keep hearing that Nashville is where HQ2 is going.
“and wondered why Amazon HQ2 is hiring in Virginia, since I keep hearing that Nashville is where HQ2 is going.”
A pimp needs to make sure their bitches in congress are doing what they’re told
“A pimp needs to make sure their bitches…”
——————————-
HIS bitches. Singular subject.
“A pimp needs to make sure HIS bitches…”
Alternatively, you could correctly say “PIMPS needs to make sure their bitches…”
Catch the street slang in the verb. That’s the local dialect.
“Thank you Dr. Phil, I didn’t know you turned that finance degree to a medical one.”
https://youtu.be/X1orSO094uY?t=21
“https://youtu.be/X1orSO094uY?t=21”
That’s very different from:
“healthy people aren’t spreading disease… thats not how diseases work”
as, among other things, Fauci limited it to ‘respiratory viruses’.
Or do you have a video where he says the same thing about chlamydia and HIV?
Sonies,
You are suffering from a severe case of confirmation bias. Fauci has subsequently explained that statement and elaborated on all the knowledge to date. In a nutshell the statement you linked to has been correct – until now. This virus has proven to be different, which is what has made it so deadly. https://asm.org/Articles/2020/August/Fauci-Calls-for-American-to-Pull-Together-to-Fight
“ You are suffering from a severe case of confirmation bias. Fauci has subsequently explained that statement and elaborated on all the knowledge to date. In a nutshell the statement you linked to has been correct – until now. This virus has proven to be different, which is what has made it so deadly. https://asm.org/Articles/2020/August/Fauci-Calls-for-American-to-Pull-Together-to-Fight”
And you’re not?
No one is showering themselves in glory, it’s been a colossal goat rope since day one.
It’s unbelievable that some people think Fauci is immune from criticism. While I don’t envy his position trying to balance “science” with political realities, but if any other “Worlds leading expert” was wrong as much as Fauci, they’d be out faster than Sabrina can down a gallon of boxed wine.
Funny how now the lab leak hypothesis is starting to gain traction, Occam’s razor and all…
“ HIS bitches. Singular subject.
“A pimp needs to make sure HIS bitches…”
Alternatively, you could correctly say “PIMPS needs to make sure their bitches…””
Your pimp hand is stronger than mine
“This virus has proven to be different, which is what has made it so deadly. ”
uh huh
Signs of the hot housing market are all over the city.
Multiple offers for this $229,000 in Greater Grand Crossing.
A 1905 Georgian SFH.
Sizzle.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/7420-S-Princeton-Ave-60621/unit-1/home/13916688
Here’s a gut rehab flip in Belmont Gardens (Belmont Heights?).
Far west side of the city.
1955 4-bedroom ranch.
Bought in February 2021 for $260,000.
Listed at $415,000.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/3039-N-Olcott-Ave-60707/home/13537462
Bought in February 2021 for $260,000.
Listed at $415,000.
Not the same house – Gut remodeled
That old basement rules
“Multiple offers for this $229,000 in Greater Grand Crossing.
A 1905 Georgian SFH.
Sizzle.”
In 2006 it sold for $150K, and recently gut rehab.
15 years later it’s only asking $229K.
Yikes.
“15 years later it’s only asking $229K.”
2006 would have been the housing bubble inflated price. Lots of appraisal fraud went on.
It’s a beauty. Not surprised there is a bidding war for it.
“Not the same house – Gut remodeled”
Yes JohnnyU. Can you read? I said it was a “gut rehab flip.”
The hot market will bring out the renovators who can make a quick flip.
Here’s what the Portage Park bungalows are now going for.
You’ll pay over $400,000 and, sometimes, over $500,000, for one of those.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/4261-N-Mulligan-Ave-60634/home/13474084
Here’s what the Portage Park bungalows are now going for.
You’ll pay over $400,000 and, sometimes, over $500,000, for one of those.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/4261-N-Mulligan-Ave-60634/home/13474084
$450k, not $500k
Bought in 08 for $365k, basically breaking even w/CPI.
So 13 years + remodel = breaking even = HAWT ™
“ 2006 would have been the housing bubble inflated price. Lots of appraisal fraud went on.”
Always an excuse
“So 13 years + remodel = breaking even = HAWT ™”
Again, 2008 was housing bubble prices. Do you compare the price of Amazon in 2005 with 1999?
No.
And, yes, it’s smoking, red hot in the Chicago housing market. Both in the city and in the suburbs. Heck, in the entire state of Illinois.
Anyone who says anything else is a fool.
Portage Park used to be a middle class neighborhood. But it’s not anymore. It’s definitely moved up into the upper middle class category, even with record low mortgage rates keeping those monthly payments down.
“Always an excuse”
Prices are higher in most Chicago neighborhoods except downtown where most are getting hit still.
There’s just no other way prices won’t rise with the strong demand and limited supply.
Look at the list of closings in any given week. Large numbers sold for over the original list price. That’s a bidding war/multiple bid situation. And it’s happening a LOT.
One thing keeping prices down, however, is the appraisals. I’ve been hearing from people who have lost out because of appraisals coming in too low.
Notice that Bob the Bear has gone away again.
He won’t be posting here for a LONG time. Years.
And where is HD?
He’s bearish too. But now silent.
Because Chicago isn’t doomed and isn’t going into the crapper so it doesn’t fit into their negative narrative.
Chicago will come back strong this summer. As will the entire Chicagoland region.
Also, by the way, Chicago real estate has appreciated, on average 1 to 3% a year before the housing bubble.
What’s inflation?
Real estate has mostly kept pace with inflation in Chicago. But the housing bubble, and housing on the coasts, have put in this other narrative that housing goes up 5% or 10% a year and is this great investment.
It’s never been true in Chicago, except in the bubble.
Some neighborhoods do better than others in bull markets though. Lincoln Square prices soared the most in the housing boom as that neighborhood became hot.
In the last 10 years, West Loop and Fulton Market have been the hottest market. Prices well outperformed the rest of the city.
And now, Logan Square/Avondale/Bronzeville seem to be the hottest neighborhoods.
Sellers will do well there.
Downtown is still lagging due to density and the fallout from the looting.
“ Also, by the way, Chicago real estate has appreciated, on average 1 to 3% a year before the housing bubble.”
You realize that after the remodel and fees, the owners of the PP home most likely straight up lost money right?
“ There’s just no other way prices won’t rise with the strong demand and limited supply.”
You’ve been saying this for months and except for 2 cases (remodels and bought in an improving area) it’s not true.
Just to note that house on Olcott, I do not think is chicago anymore. That side of belmont west of harlem is elmwood park. Plus who and the what is “belmont gardens” another realtor sales pitch that a crooked alderman adapted to promote a comercial strip.
Also there used to me a kick arse italian corner store that had the greatest meat and italian ice. (on the elmwood park side)
Also that place on Mulligan is not Portage Park it is the Dunning neighborhood.
Have to say this too that place on Princeton is a little bit too west to be Grand Crossing.
“Also that place on Mulligan is not Portage Park it is the Dunning neighborhood.”
Do you honestly expect Sabrina to get anything right?
“Chicago real estate has appreciated, on average 1 to 3% a year before the housing bubble”
CPI + 25-50 bps. For basically 100 years now. Which isn’t the same thing as “1-3% per year”.
And the market’s done that in a very lumpy way–if you buy a peak, you see negative (real dollar) returns for ~10 year.
“Also that place on Mulligan is not Portage Park it is the Dunning neighborhood.”
The listing says Portage Park.
“Just to note that house on Olcott, I do not think is chicago anymore. That side of belmont west of harlem is elmwood park. Plus who and the what is “belmont gardens” another realtor sales pitch that a crooked alderman adapted to promote a comercial strip.”
I would think the current owners would know if they were in Chicago or not Groove.
But I’m with you on what “belmont gardens” is (ha ha) versus “belmont heights” which is what it was called in the prior listing.
Belmont Gardens sounds lovely though.
“You’ve been saying this for months and except for 2 cases (remodels and bought in an improving area) it’s not true.”
I could do a post every day of properties that are selling for a lot higher than the owner paid previously but they usually go under contract almost immediately.
I’m being forced to crib about the downtown high rises and the like because that market is slower right now. And many of those sellers are, unfortunately, losing money.
“The listing says Portage Park.”
Do you even live in Chicago?
“I could do a post every day of properties that are selling for a lot higher than the owner paid previously but they usually go under contract almost immediately.”
Sure after they remodeled and/or were early movers in gentrifying hoods, but the former are covering their costs, the later are typically doing better but at a higher risk
““Also that place on Mulligan is not Portage Park it is the Dunning neighborhood.”
It is absolutely Portage Park. Look up the boundaries.
“Just to note that house on Olcott, I do not think is chicago anymore.”
Just Google the address and you’ll see it’s Chicago
“It is absolutely Portage Park. Look up the boundaries.”
—————————–
That’s rich, Gary, you think Bucktown goes South of Armitage.
“The listing says Portage Park”
and sqft is just a number. RE profession seems to be just a legal scam.
“I would think the current owners would know if they were in Chicago or not Groove.”
Oh they do because they pay for a elmwood park city sticker. The addy shows a now chicago zip code in other locations than the RE listing too.
@Gary L
Dooode, it is not portage park. Your back yard view is of wright college. Yes its close to portage. And regardless of what Real Estate Agent boundries are used NO REAL CHICAGOAN WILL CALL IT PORTAGE PARK. If anything it will get confused for Harwood Heights. ITS DUNNING!
“Just Google the address and you’ll see it’s Chicago”
@Gary,
I like you, have always, but you being in the industry should have better access to the data than I sad desk jockey like me would.
BUT EVEN THE TAX BILL HAS A NON CHICAGO ZIP CODE.
the Olcott property is on the border of chi and elmwood so i can see where either of us can be right.
“That’s rich, Gary, you think Bucktown goes South of Armitage.”
I know you’re being funny but Bucktown is a neighborhood with no official boundaries. Portage Park is a community area and is precisely defined.
Dooode, it is not portage park. Your back yard view is of wright college. Yes its close to portage. And regardless of what Real Estate Agent boundries are used NO REAL CHICAGOAN WILL CALL IT PORTAGE PARK. If anything it will get confused for Harwood Heights. ITS DUNNING!”
Portage Park has officially defined boundaries. Here they are from the city of Chicago Web site: https://www.chicago.gov/content/dam/city/depts/doit/general/GIS/Chicago_Maps/Community_Areas/CA_PORTAGE_PARK.pdf
“BUT EVEN THE TAX BILL HAS A NON CHICAGO ZIP CODE.
the Olcott property is on the border of chi and elmwood so i can see where either of us can be right.”
Here is an official map of Chicago. It’s in Chicago: https://gisapps.chicago.gov/mapchicago/
And Redfin seems to know it’s Chicago as well because it has Chicago in the URL
I agree with you BriBri, Belmont Gardens sounds way better than the NY sounding Belmont Heights.
Maybe i am getting old and stuck in old chicago ways. But they way we call a neighborhood was always either buy its closest park, closest large church, or historic name it had for a long time.
I am still trying to figure out who in the heck came up with North Center? It was either called ‘ova by st. bens’ or ‘ova dare by lane brain’. roscoe village was hillbillyville so was the area before lincon square (coonley school area). “west lake view was st alfonz hood.
So according to you and a city.gov map Belmont and Central is called portage park?
Please find anyone who lived at belmont and central and see if they would call it portage park neighborhood?
As for olcott, I got $50 that their water bill does not come from chicago and their gas bill say Nicor on it.
“It is absolutely Portage Park. Look up the boundaries.”
It might be in the Dunning “neighborhood”, but it is 1,000% in the Portage Park Community Area, which has boundaries *designated by ordinance*, and thus not open to argument.
“the Olcott property is on the border of chi and elmwood so i can see where either of us can be right.”
Somehow, CPS thinks that Olcott (and Oleander, and the east side of 76th/Oriole), north of Wellington are all in the Dever ES attendance area.
And the Elmwood Park CUSD agrees–have to be west of 76th, or south of Wellington to get into their schools.
Good catch anon(ufo). I get a good friend who teaches at Dever so I will ask.
I guess the water bill is from chicago and i was wrong’ish, I still stand the the gas bill will say Nicor.
“Sure after they remodeled and/or were early movers in gentrifying hoods, but the former are covering their costs, the later are typically doing better but at a higher risk”
Nope. It’s THAT red hot.
I’m surprised you don’t see the sizzle out in your Indiana suburb JohnnyU. Indiana inventory is down something like 50% as well. Similar to Illinois.
The whole country is on fire.
And, as predicted, most of the housing bears on this site are missing in action.
Can’t explain the headlines. Illinois, and Chicago, supposed to be doomed.
It’s not happening and they don’t know why.
Lol.
“And, as predicted, most of the housing bears on this site are missing in action.”
Few residents other than realtors or mortgage brokers are cheering this hot market around the country. Buyers lament having to overpay for limited supply while sellers are reluctant to sell for fear of being unable to afford to move. The market is flooded with investor cash trying to flip or rehab anything they can get their hands on. Meanwhile, nearly one in twenty homes with mortgages are seriously delinquent, and rental properties that would otherwise come onto this market are currently occupied by squatting tenants. Millions of homeowners are in forbearance or deferment and haven’t made a mortgage payment in over a year. Renters who did pay rent are fleeing cramped city housing for the suburbs or exurbs in droves. Ask any mortgage broker who is buying these days and they say there are a lot of well off former renters who are leaving certain submarkets. Rents are dropping everywhere – don’t believe the spin you read in the rah-rah trade mags. The highest median price ever, and hottest market ever, is not good for the nebulous ‘affordability’ and middle to lower income families are straight up being priced out of ever owning any property, increasing their likelihood of leaving the state.
Chicago is a complete disaster, and none of this should be seen as a sign of good things ahead.
“The market is flooded with investor cash trying to flip or rehab anything they can get their hands on.”
It’s 20% in some markets like SoCal. That’s been the norm for many years.
“Renters who did pay rent are fleeing cramped city housing for the suburbs or exurbs in droves. Ask any mortgage broker who is buying these days and they say there are a lot of well off former renters who are leaving certain submarkets.”
Fantastic. Was always going to happen as Millennials got married. Now they are.
Here’s a little secret, COVID just pushed the event to happen at a faster pace. But 2020-2024 was always going to be a hot housing market with the Millennials buying in droves, and the Baby Boomers selling in the north to move to the south.
Demographics are a bitch but they are consistent.
“Rents are dropping everywhere – don’t believe the spin you read in the rah-rah trade mags.”
Nah. This is done. I don’t know ANY rents still dropping. Not even in downtown Chicago.
If you didn’t get your rental deal, it’s too late now.
“Chicago is a complete disaster, and none of this should be seen as a sign of good things ahead.”
I love it when HD shows up on the site.
It is?
You’ve been saying that for 10 years.
Meanwhile, billions of dollars in new office towers and residential construction has gone up around the city. And it’s gotten several new fortune 500 headquarters. Oh, and it also managed to renovate one of the largest office buildings in the country that had sat vacant for 20 years. And it’s added over 50,000 jobs. Oh, and the schools are thriving.
LMFAO.
Go figure?
Yeah- if Chicago is a “complete disaster” I wonder what a “good” Chicago is like?
But the bears have no concept of that. Everything has to be doom and gloom. When the cities generate 2/3rds of the country’s GDP. So the bears are literally rooting against America.
It’s absurd.
“If you didn’t get your rental deal, it’s too late now.”
Sabrina’s online persona has officially merged with He Who Shall Not Be Named.
There is certainly positives like you mentioned above, but there are A LOT more negatives. The negatives are only whispers in Chicago right now but the rest of the country at least acknowledges the problems in their own cities. Most of Chicago’s problems are not unique to Chicago, they’re common in most cities that shutdown.
But Chicago’s problems go above and beyond the common problems of many major cities. Chicago is having a major crime wave right now that harkens back to the 1990’s or 1970’s. And residents and tourists have responded accordingly. Nigel Farage of the UK recently went on a tour of the United States and he said, “…the worst thing I saw was Chicago literally closed…” This was last month.
“If you didn’t get your rental deal, it’s too late now.”
Why do you insist on being wrong?
Wolf Point has incentives
So does Aqua
BOYZ, BOYZ, BOYZ! You don’t get it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Incentives are not discounts. Get that through your heads and you and Sabrina will get along famously.
“(S)he” says “sizzle.” We say, “feel the burn.”
““(S)he” says “sizzle.” We say, “feel the burn.””
It’s the hottest housing market in 30 years nationwide.
In Chicago, and Chicagoland, it’s the hottest since 2005-2006.
Difference is that the builders aren’t building so everyone is stuck with the existing home inventory, unless you can afford to be buying in the St. Regis or the Tribune Tower. But that’s just a couple hundred purchases between those two buildings.
“Why do you insist on being wrong?”
“Wolf Point has incentives”
EVERY building has incentives. They had 2 month incentives BEFORE Covid. They had 4 months incentives DURING covid. That is gone. Occupancy is rising again. The dirt cheap deals are gone already. Done.
“There is certainly positives like you mentioned above, but there are A LOT more negatives.”
Come ON Homedelete. Give me more than just “Chicago sucks.”
That’s what you’ve been saying for 10 years. And yet, amazingly, Chicago doesn’t suck. Instead, it continues to create unicorn tech companies. It continues to lure fortune 500 companies. It continues to build multi-billion dollar developments. Global developers are STILL building in Fulton Market, calling it the best neighborhood in the country.
Come on.
Tell me again how Chicago is a disaster and is doomed.
Does it have problems? Hell yes! We just had a fucking pandemic.
In 1919, EVERY major US city had serious issues. 2021 won’t be any different. IN EVERY MAJOR CITY- as you said. Chicago’s problems are NO different.
And you obviously don’t live in the city because you have NO IDEA what the “whispers” are or what Chicagoans are talking about with regards to reopening problems, crime, homelessness, getting people back to work, making sure everyone gets the vaccine so there aren’t any further big outbreaks etc.
And, yeah, we are ALL talking about it because we just spent the pandemic in one of America’s biggest cities hoping we didn’t die in our apartment.
But with Chicago’s relatively affordable housing, great airport, huge well of talent, fantastic research universities, culture, arts, sports…you can’t bet against it versus any other American city and even many international ones.
Chicago is a national powerhouse.
“And residents and tourists have responded accordingly.”
They HAVE?
Gosh.
The 3 largest Chicago hotels will reopen by the end of June. Because there’s demand. Try getting a reservation on the weekends at ANY Chicago hotel for this summer.
Good luck.
So, yeah, again, I don’t believe you have been IN the city of Chicago recently. And if you have, you drove downtown and said, “Chicago is doomed.”
My god. What a joke.
Chicago isn’t closed. It is nearly fully open. Who gives a damn what stupid Nigel Farage is even saying? Do you LIVE in the Chicago suburbs? Perhaps you should check out the “closed” Chicago yourself. But be sure you make that restaurant reservation and make it now. Restaurants are booked weeks out already.
LMFAO.
“It’s the hottest housing market in 30 years”
You and I remember 1991 veeeeerrrrrrry differently.
“Try getting a reservation on the weekends at ANY Chicago hotel for this summer.”
Just checked for July 2-6, Independence Day weekend:
Hilton properties: Of ~25 “downtown” properties only the Conrad is full. Only ones over $300 = Waldorf and Navy Pier
Marriott: Over 100 options, only the Residence Inn in *Schaumburg* is full. Only the Ritz over $300.
IHG: 48 properties, only the Intercontinental on Mich over $250. Only the Holiday Inn on Wolf Point and the HI Express on N Wabash are sold out.
Do you bother looking at *anything* before making such pronouncements?
“The 3 largest Chicago hotels will reopen by the end of June.”
They are currently closed?
We’re spending a couple of weeks in Chicago in July. Sabrina has me thinking we need to make dinner reservations now; HD makes it sound like we’ll be risking our lives the whole time. Perhaps the reality will be somewhere in between?
“They had 2 month incentives BEFORE Covid. They had 4 months incentives DURING covid.”
Most places didn’t have incentives pre-covid. Maybe you could get one month and potentially on a new build you could get 2 during the lease-up phase.
“The 3 largest Chicago hotels will reopen by the end of June. Because there’s demand.”
occupancy was 19% in April talk about “demand”
“Try getting a reservation on the weekends at ANY Chicago hotel for this summer.”
Will be pretty simple most events are canceled i.e. air & water show. Still have restrictions. Still have very few conventions. A little bump will happen during Lolla. But it’s still bad.
Chicago Aviation O’Hare passenger volume down 50%+ in March 2021 compared to March 2020.
https://www.flychicago.com/SiteCollectionDocuments/Business/FactAndFigures/AirTraffic/OperationsPassengers%20Cargo%20Summary%20By%20Class%20March%20ORD%20REVISED.pdf
“Chicago isn’t closed. It is nearly fully open.”
Huh? Any Broadway shows announced yet? Chicago Loop Alliance says loop pedestrian traffic was only 60% last week compared to pre-covid.
“Downtown Chicago pedestrian traffic at its worst was 25% of normal, encompassing only local residents and essential workers. Now, that number is up to 60%.”
““It was been trickling upwards,” Edwards says. He’s hoping office building occupancy will reach 50% during the summer, up from the current 20%. While Illinois aims to fully reopen on June 11, Chicago officials have not said when they’ll follow suit.”
Yeah sounds like back to normal……
https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-covid-downtown-reopening-20210518-5frb76uocvgmnhq4ztf3ue4xim-story.html
“Perhaps the reality will be somewhere in between?”
That’s exactly where it’s at. It’s certainly much better than last year but don’t kid yourself it’s not close to pre-covid. Some events are starting to come back like Lolla and Riot Fest this summer. But plenty haven’t announced yet. Block Parties can’t get permits in the city until after the 4th of July.
The State is supposed to move to phase 5 come June 11 which means no restrictions. However, Lori has said Chicago would not enter phase 5 that day. I assume she will wait a couple of weeks and Chicago will be in phase 5 before July 4.
Another “weird” thing is starting to pop-up – vaccinated and unvaccinated sections at restaurants/bars in the city. So if you come make sure you bring your card.
If I were planning a trip to Chicago I would wait until around Labor Day if you can. There’s alot of hesitation still. I imagine that starts to fade after the 4th of July.
When I’m walking around the city it’s still surprising that ~50% of people where masks outside even though people aren’t near them, and that’s not “following the science”. Not to mention most of these individuals are likely vaccinated already. So it’s somewhat bizarre.
https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2021/05/21/covid-19-chicago-restaurants-vaccinated-only-section/
I often wonder if Sabrina actually lives in Chicago because her bullishness is not substantiated by evidence on the ground. The reality is that downtown Chicago, which encompasses River North, and a little west and south too, have become significantly more dangerous outside of normal business hours. Ask any one who lives there. They are move than wiling to tell you exactly how they feel.
The downtown area won’t be returning to pre-covid levels anytime soon and may never return to its 2019 peak. Chicago isn’t turning into Detroit overnight; but we are certainly on our way there.
“The downtown area won’t be returning to pre-covid levels anytime soon and may never return to its 2019 peak. Chicago isn’t turning into Detroit overnight; but we are certainly on our way there.”
Laughable.
All of this is coming from someone who we KNOW doesn’t live in the city of Chicago.
He drives down once every six months, looks around, and then declares it “unsafe” and turning into Detroit (which is booming, by the way, so are you talking about Detroit circa 1995 or Detroit circa 2021?)
You live in the past homedelete. You’re an older guy who still thinks the cities are “scary” as if it’s 1990.
Get into this century.
@ HD,
Traffic is back to its normal self. I said more profanities driving this past 2 weeks than I did all of 2020.
It’s just as safe as it was before, crime is the same as 2018 and the years before. Apparently your perceived crime increase makes you uncomfortable, and thats okay, but for folks that are not swayed by fear blogs and fear media it’s just as it was.