Market Conditions: January Home Sales Fall 14% YOY in Chicago
As predicted from many on Crib Chatter, sales continued to be weak in January, falling 14% compared to January of 2009. The median price also fell 12.8% year over year.
Median condo prices fell 14.6% year over year to $239,000.
From the Illinois Association of Realtors:
In the city of Chicago, January total home sales (single-family and condominiums) were down 14.0 percent to 1,034 sales compared to 1,202 homes sold in January 2010. The city of Chicago median price in January 2011 was $170,000 down 12.8 percent compared to $195,000 a year ago in January 2010.
“The city of Chicago in January saw slow movement of inventory, with 14 percent fewer homes sold in January 2011 over the first month of 2010. This differential was expected given the federal tax credit that incentivized the market last year, and will likely show the same through the early spring,” said Mabel Guzman, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and a REALTOR® with Envision Real Estate LLC, Chicago. “A decrease in the median price of condos purchased in Chicago by 14.6 percent to $239,000 in January 2011 is indicative of the downward pressure distressed properties continue to have on our market, and the challenges buyers face in securing condo financing.”
Here’s the monthly stats over the last 4 years:
- January 2008 sales: 1161
- January 2009 sales: 917
- January 2010 sales: 1202
- January 2011 sales: 1034
Here are the median prices:
- January 2009: $205,000
- January 2010: $195,000
- January 2011: $170,000
“The sales volume for the first month of 2011 was a fairly promising signal. Sales declined by a very small amount in January year-over-year and would have been higher than 2010 had the effect of the homebuyer tax credit been removed,” noted Dr. Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) of the University of Illinois. “Prices, however, are still being challenged by the volume of distressed properties on the market.”
Adds Hewings: “The rental market is heating up. Further dramatic increases in rents could push consumers back to the housing market and become homeowners. Although the nation and the state economies are still facing many challenges in their efforts to recover from the recession, the long-term trends continue to show that both are moving forward and adding jobs.”
Optimal Buyer Market Conditions Linger in the Illinois Housing Market; January Sales Up or Even in Over Half of Counties Statewide [Illinois Association of Realtors Press Release, February 23, 2011]
I was going to buy but all this talk of double dip and bad numbers, I think I’ll wait, this looks like it’s getting uglier.
could the bad weather have anything to do with this?
Do you guys know how to analyze data? Geez – these numbers reflect units that went under contract in oct/nov and dec – the economy is actually much more stable today – so this is a snapshot of something that happened 4 months ago. The interesting numbers are going to be coming out in June/July (regarding April and May sales). I would bet anything that the numbers are going to be much higher (YOY) at that time
“I was going to buy but all this talk of double dip and bad numbers, I think I’ll wait, this looks like it’s getting uglier.”
If you find something you like, buy it, because I promise if you don’t, someone else will.
There will be no double dip on quality properities.
here let me fix your post clio so you can copy and paste this in June;
Do you guys know how to analyze data? Geez – these numbers reflect units that went under contract in March/April/May- the economy is actually much more stable today – so this is a snapshot of something that happened 4 months ago. The interesting numbers are going to be coming out in Nov/Dec (regarding sept and Oct sales). I would bet anything that the numbers are going to be much higher (YOY) at that time.
*let me know if you want me to update this post for other future months to make it easier for you
*or i could just type out something how the then numbers in englewood skew they total numbers because Oak brook and kenilworth and LP are fine its the aggregate of all these sub-par hoods not correctly reflecting the Palmolive market.
let me know i am here to help you out
but clio, by then they will be 4 months old and irrelevant. 2 triilion a year now inbedded into the deficit and u just don’t see that GDP has to contract?
The only argument i see in your favor is 1- the fed and major banks are massively short puts and thus has your position on in massive size and has proven it will try anything including devaluating the dollar which i think it tried but China very wisely said FU and went 1 to 1 on increasing money supply keeping the exchange rate stable but causing global inflation. Oh and now half the world is on the brink of riots as people struggle to buy food and gas. Lovely unintended consequences.
Famous last words so eloquently spoken…
“There will be no double dip on quality properities.”
I casually follow a number of neighborhoods and February seems even slower than January. Not just sales but properties going under contract too. Like dead in the water. Granted Feb is usually a slow month to begin with and the 3rd largest snow storm since the 1880’s didn’t bring out traffic but still, it’s a miserable month to be a mortgage broker or a realtor. Maybe the promise of a warm spring March will bring out the buyers.
“The only argument i see in your favor is 1- the fed and major banks are massively short puts”
I don’t know about the fed but Warren Buffet is MASSIVELY short puts on I believe the dow jones @ 10000 he absorbed about 4billion in premium? I forget the exact details but, yeah
fed-banks MASSIVELY short mortgage puts. I am 1000 percent certain. Dream trade for banks is to see prices rise and then foreclose on everyone. I think they are in shock that QE’s did so little.
Why’s that, so they can get the nominal value of their loan back? If the market were so hot then 3rd buyers would buy the homes at judicial auction. The banks would only get the nominal value of their loan, and any money above the nominal value of the mortgages would be returned to the borrower. The 3rd party would try to then resell the property in the regular market for a slightly higher price than what they paid at the auction which is their premium for their work. The banks are not going to profit by foreclosures.
“#gringozecarioca on February 23rd, 2011 at 11:13 am
fed-banks MASSIVELY short mortgage puts. I am 1000 percent certain. Dream trade for banks is to see prices rise and then foreclose on everyone. I think they are in shock that QE’s did so little.”
“
sonies my appology, that was a crappy response. About to pour and was on my horse trying rapidly to get back to corral. I’ll explain the 1OOO percent comment. Simple, every mortgage essentially has the lender writing a put at a stike of what they lent….they do not benefit in the upside and can get the property put back to them if the owner so desires. Essentially size short puts and shitting about it. Please no need to get into legal and recourse and bankruptcy arguments as it is a massive tangent.
wouldn’t it make more sense to forclose on everyone then see prices rise? and aren’t they already pretty “long on mortgages”?
I gotcha ze… that makes more sense
you are correct HD. I have very cynical feelings for the banks. I think they try somehow. But u r correct legally and mine is only my opinion.
see this takes me full circle back to a requirement of 20percent down on a loan. Then the bank writes a short put 20percent out of the money which is worth a hell of a lot less than writing one at the money which they did with 100 percent financing. It is a fucking disgrace this got put back onto the american populace. The banks all deserved to get put down.
“Famous last words so eloquently spoken… ”
“There will be no double dip on quality properities.”
They are not last words. Calculate how much you loose renting for ten years vs the price drop over that time…we argue this all the time. Keep pissing away money renting, waiting, waiting, looking, renting….instead of just pulling the trigger on a “quality” property so you aren’t part of the ninja generation with no assets. Even if you slightly over pay for your house, and sell it for a loss, you will loose less than the cost of renting/waiting for that said time…in my opinion at least.
More seemingly contradictory information (although I realize regional and national figures are different):
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Foreclosures-cash-deals-apf-2061349403.html?x=0
Afed – I totally agree – also, what is the moronic obsession that people have about getting the absolute best deal on a house/condo? Most people don’t think twice about buying shoes, cars, etc. – big ticket items that clearly depreciate. Although I realize purchasing a house is a much larger amount, you also use it more than a car or pair of shoes. It also WILL appreciate over the next 10-15 years. People should look at housing as they look at buying a car/shoes – but they seem to be looking at it like they do a stock/bond.
“Most people don’t think twice about buying shoes, cars, etc. – big ticket items that clearly depreciate.”
Exceptionally few people buy shoes that qualify as “big ticket” as compared to even a used Yugo.
It’s difficult to discuss this rationally when ‘renting = pissing away money’. Renting is first and foremost a place to live. If I can rent for less than the most of interest of a comparable property, I can put saving aside and use that as a down payment on a cheaper property in the future.
Right now I’m saving the difference in cash hidden away in my mattress.
Others are making the principal payment portion of their mortgage – which should be converted to equity – is instead being flushed down the toilet.
So who is really pissing money away? It isn’t me.
“They are not last words. Calculate how much you loose renting for ten years vs the price drop over that time…we argue this all the time. Keep pissing away money renting, waiting, waiting, looking, renting….instead of just pulling the trigger on a “quality” property so you aren’t part of the ninja generation with no assets. Even if you slightly over pay for your house, and sell it for a loss, you will loose less than the cost of renting/waiting for that said time…in my opinion at least.”
Clio – most people do not know how to take a calcualted risk and make money — let them keep renting — I will gladly purchase another place and rent mine out to someone who will essentially buy my place for me thus increasing my net worth.
Look, I rented for 7 years in different buildings at about 2k/mo rough avg. That’s 168k GONE!…no tax write off…no recoup of loss.
If I would have bought in 2004 – obviously certain circumstances apply such as length of time, job situation, etc – I may have lost call it 50% of my purchase price. If I would have bought a condo for 350k, sold it for 175k (extreme example), I still would have been in the same rough position when factoring in taxes, assys, and partially offset by writeoffs.
I was considering buying at 659 R&D W Randolph building as investment property with intent to lease. The new building rules however require that one live in the building for one year prior to being able to lease. It is condo board members that come up with these stupid rules that deter investors the condo housing market will remain where it is for a long time. I feel sorry for developers who would otherwise be able to unload the remaining units.
@ clio: plenty of examples of how some purchased their properties in 2001 and try to sell them now at below purchase price. There is no certainty in what happens in 10-15 years.
“If I would have bought a condo for 350k, sold it for 175k (extreme example), I still would have been in the same rough position when factoring in taxes, assys, and partially offset by writeoffs.”
So, the $68,000 in interest, at 5%, net of 35% tax savings, doesn’t factor in? And $20k in taxes (again, net of 35% tax savings)? And $6k in assessments (at very low $100 per, net of value of services hypothetically used)?
Looks like $95k for 6 years in the condo, before capital loss, so the “extreme example” need only be a much more plausible 20% total loss, which, before transaction expenses, would mean a sale price of ~$297k on that $350k in ’04 condo to make is a wash with rent.
Now, condo may well have been nicer than the apartments you rented, and the moving +/- is ignored. But your basic example isn’t remotely apples to apples, even before the psychological benefits and burdens or maintenance/customization costs/opportunities.
TFO – What is your point that it is better to rent or to buy?
You are also only factoring in that 7 year period and the fact that if I did not sell, I would still be acruing equity and writeoffs.
Burdens? How about the numerous burdens of renting my friend?
Don’t give me that shit about moving costs, we aren’t talking about a 5000 sq ft house here.
My point is that renting for long periods of time, waiting for prices to fall, is pissing away money imo. Short term OK, long term, piss.
Afed is right – if you are going to be in a place for more than 6-7 years, buying almost always makes more sense. At the current low prices, I would even re-advust that figure to 5-6 years because we are at (or very near) the bottom of the market.
good points A-Fed – if you are like me and think things like spiking gas prices and QE2 are going to start to drive interest rates up, you should think about buying now. Of course, you could wait another two years, drop $48k on additional rent, get a cool 0.01% interest on your downpayment and pay higher interest rates in the future meaning all in you will come out in roughly the same spot in the long run, but you wouldn’t have to live an apartment with the filthy unwashed proles during that two years, which in my opinion is priceless. Of course, you’ve gotta find a place you love, but once that happens, even though prices are very likely to drop further, net/net you’ll come out in roughly the same spot in the long run at today’s prices and interest rates. It was clear to me housing was a terrible investment 5 years ago, now the prices (at least with respect to reasonable sellers) are at a level where it is only just bad (rather than terrible) as an investment, but not a bad deal in terms of paying for shelter given the number of places available at discounts to rent parity and the inflation hedge provided by a long-term fixed rate mortgage.
A-fed are you saying that your $350,000 condo would rent for $2,000? In my building an outdated apartment rents for $900 and at the height of the boom the ‘apartment’ aka condo with granite countertops sold for roughly $300,000.
Furthermore, $2,000 rent is on the higher end of things for Chicago so you might be an extreme example. $1,400, $1,600 maybe, but I don’t know many people with $2,000 rents. I know plenty with $2,000 mortgages though.
Per clio housing “WILL appreciate over the next 10-15 years.”
Housing/banking analyst Reggie Middleton cites 21 years (and counting)of housing market declines in Japan. And, our bubble was larger than theirs. It could happen here. Renting might be wise, indeed.
Before you dismiss his points, consider that he’s one of very few analysts who called the market correctly from the top.
http://boombustblog.com/reggie-middleton/2011/02/12/if-japan-lost-two-decades-from-its-bubble-popping-how-many-decades-should-the-us-expect-to-lose/
In my RN building, a 300,000 condo rents for 1800-2100 and a 350-450K condo rents for 2200-2800 depending on view and how nicely kept the unit is. One parking space is generally included as are all utilities except electric (heat and cooking are gas and included). Also, includes doorman, fitness room, and other full service amenities.
HD – yeah dude! a nice condo in RN w/parking is ~2k, at least!
I don’t wanna live in lakeview or Sloop or lincoln square or in some run down, 1970’s building with window a/c, public w/d, street parking; I am talkin high rise living…APPLES TO APPLES
(Keep in mind the 350k and 2k are “relative, nice # figures.)
HD- I could easily rent out my not so desireable 2/2 in RN for 2k a month, in fact most 2/1’s with parking rent for that much
yeah HD, you’re a bit off with the rent there,
a decent 1bed in rivernorth with parking is easily 1750, a 2 bed would probably be in the 2300 neighborhood. i live in the gold coast and pay around 1700 with parking for a updated but not steller 1 bed;
http://www.flickr.com/photos/40035500@N00/5010239535/
as you can see it’s nice but nothing spectacular. even most crapbox apartments in rivernorth/GC/streeterville charge in the 2k+ neighborhood with parking for a 2bed.
i was paying 1500 with parking when i lived at museum park in the south loop and i’d say that was a steal.
afed: “What is your point that it is better to rent or to buy?”
No, my point is your “example” was poorly constructed and ignored the *actual* *annual* costs of buying instead of renting, and put the whole “loss” comparison on the at-sale capital loss.
HD: “I don’t know many people with $2,000 rents.”
Sheesh. You either just know Bob’s friends or PermaBear’s “poors”. I wouldn’t say that *most* renters I know spend over $2k, but many, many do. I spent almost that in ’99, so it’s hardly shockingly high.
Any landlords on here charge $2,000 rent?
a friend rents his place for 2k a month. paid 470k for it in 05. rent has been flat since then. it’s a 2bed in streeterville
“Any landlords on here charge $2,000 rent?”
Clio just raised rent on a 2/2 in LV from $2k to $2.5k!!
I mean, this isn’t really a difficult topic to investigate. go to urbanrealestate.com and all the rental listings are broken down by 1bed/2bed and neighborhood.
Here are 2 beds in river north:
http://www.urbanrealestate.com/Chicago/River-North/2-Bedroom?type=rn
The cheapest crapbox on there is 2k a month without parking. What world do you guys live in where you can rent a *nice place* that is a 2bed with parking in river north, streeterville, gold coast, etc, that isn’t a dump?
(bc i’d like to live in that world )
Clio,
The problem with your assessment is that you assume appreciation. Have you run the hypothetical of depreciation? Various sources are predicting potential drops from 5-20%.
Now I’m with someone who says 20% decline in prices is coming. BUT, Clio you act like someone is crazy for considering a declining market possibility. Such a market chews away your down payment/equity.
Your position, being so steadfast, is a curious one to me. How is it unreasonable for a buyer to hedge and rent until there are meaningful signs of an upward trend. Some folks say, as maybe you would, that timing the market is silly. However, we’re not talking dollar cost averaging of buying stocks–we’re talking about fixing your basis in the, ahem..er, investment as you call it. Fixing your basis at point x is scary when you are leveraging and depreciation maybe be on the horizon.
Just some thoughts. I think Clio makes some interesting points about holding long term, but I think the overall analysis isn’t compelling as the reasons aren’t explained through principles–just sort of conclusions and big statements.
Always entertaining!
Should have said, “I am NOT with someone who says 20% declines are coming.” Please forgive the error.
“No, my point is your “example” was poorly constructed and ignored the *actual* *annual* costs of buying instead of renting, and put the whole “loss” comparison on the at-sale capital loss.”
Im sorry that my example was poorly constructed and not to your standards…regardless, my point was made. Actual, annual, whole loss, at-sale capitial loss….green jacket gold jacket.
Renting for long periods of time is piss unless you are renting my unit, paying my mortgage, and helping me get wealthier.
afed I like you but sometimes your posts are not so smart
ha yeah riz the cheapest “crapbox” on there is right on the el tracks and god the rest of those places SUCK
Additionally, I will gladly draft a 7 year rental contract to anyone who wants to rent for that long. 7 years @ 2k/mo.
168k in my pocket thank you very much.
hey riz, whats that bike in your photos? looks cool
I rent in western lincoln park near webster/clybourn for $1950 for a 2bed/2.5 bath with a garage, 1500 sq ft but crappy layout/old kitchen.
Hoping to move closer to Lake/El, and not pay more by sacrificing the garage and a little bit of space.
People I know in Bucktown duplex down 2bed/1bath pay 1500.
“afed I like you but sometimes your posts are not so smart”
ha, thanks CH…sometimes neither are my investments (ahem, UWBK), but I do make money and take it from someone who came from nothing, paid off his student loans in 10 years, bought an REO, works 50+ hours a week yet still maintains a social life, is involved in numerous chairitable functions aaaaaaannd has a hot GF (possible wife), an idiot to someone could be a genius to another.
“ha yeah riz the cheapest “crapbox” on there is right on the el tracks and god the rest of those places SUCK”
Ah, apologies, i was looking at page 7 at the places on the building on state/ontario when referring to crapboxes, not the very last place at 2k/month. The place in the 630 franklin building is actually a great deal, but is still 2200 a month with parking – i like that unit a lot .
CH, that’s a vintage Fuji roadbike from the 80’s ( i know, not quite ‘vintage’ to some ), mostly original at this point..Rides great though. picked it up at a garage sale in pilsen last summer, love that thing, i’ve been meaning to build it up a bit and re-paint it , but just haven’t had the time.
A-Fed: I’ll recommend that you do not apply your buy vs. rent logic to the GF situation.
If I ditched my lease and bought when I initially started looking in early 2009, I would have lost serious dough because prices have fallen for the same type of place and in some cases the exact place.
Why should I have spent $700K on something in 2009 and 2010, which is now down $100K? I’m seeing so many listings that are priced so much lower than when I started. Each time I thought, maybe this is the bottom. But things have kept falling. Meanwhile, I’ve saved a boatload of cash.
Are A-Fed and Clio saying I should’ve bought despite the massive depreciation and just paid extra on my principal? How do they come up with renting is “piss.”
By the way, your arguments are so silly when I think of how long it would take me to pay down $100K in principle to make up for a declining market. Do you two print money?
“Hoping to move closer to Lake/El, and not pay more by sacrificing the garage and a little bit of space.
People I know in Bucktown duplex down 2bed/1bath pay 1500”
Really unlikely for you to not pay a whole lot more and keep parking for that size closer to ELP, in my opinion. How crappy is this bucktown duplex down? I worked with 2 different realtors, craigslist, and used the MLS myself and could not find a nice 1 bed loft or condo in bucktown with parking for less than 1800 this past fall, let alone a duplex!
“A-Fed: I’ll recommend that you do not apply your buy vs. rent logic to the GF situation.”
Not to mention the “unless you are renting my unit, paying my mortgage, and helping me get wealthier” logic.
Wicker – hahaha, lmfao
“Not to mention the “unless you are renting my unit, paying my mortgage, and helping me get wealthier” logic.”
That was just to piss some people off around here, stir up some emotion.
Well what if you want to live OUTSIDE of the River North. Do $350,000 condos rent for $2,000 a month there too?
Riz, what is paying your rent? Student loans or your parents?
“Do $350,000 condos rent for $2,000 a month there too?”
I think so…I can say that’s probably a fact for the west loop, lakeshore east, streeterville, gold coast, lincoln park, and the nicer parts of bucktown and lakeview…Probably the south loop for sure as well, as 350k buys a lot there.
“Riz, what is paying your rent? Student loans or your parents?”
Trust fund. So i guess indirectly the latter. Problem?
I thought they told you not to come around pilsen.
nice find.
To be honest though, only use ~ 300 bucks of my fund towards rent. I make ~50k so i can usually pay my rent from that depending on how hard i party on the weekends in that given month.
hey A-fed, looks like yoku is still fillin that downtrend, that GS pump was only worth a few dimes… this might still work out! 8) daddy needs a new car!
let me rephrase – the Bucktown palce isn’t a dup down, its first floor of a two flat. No w/d in unit, no parking, kind of drafty, but new kitchen and floors.
As for my search, I’m hoping for a lot Sabrina’s 2/2 owners doubling down and moving to the burbs. I’m also looking at ELV, Old Town, maybe RN but don’t know it at all. I’m always amazed how terrible the rental stock is in Chicago, especially in LP. The fact that people still accept coin op laundry is shocking to me. That’s a no go for us.
CH, can’t help it. my gf loves mexican food. haha
“hey A-fed, looks like yoku is still fillin that downtrend, that GS pump was only worth a few dimes… this might still work out! daddy needs a new car!”
Goodluck bro! I’m pullin for ya! Drop baby Drop!
No problems here. Sounds like you’re a little self-conscious though.
“#Riz on February 23rd, 2011 at 2:38 pm
“Riz, what is paying your rent? Student loans or your parents?”
Trust fund. So i guess indirectly the latter. Problem?”
not at all HD, people usually ask stuff like that to be obnoxious but i’ve got no hang ups. I’m an open book. =D
“I rent in western lincoln park near webster/clybourn for $1950 for a 2bed/2.5 bath with a garage, 1500 sq ft but crappy layout/old kitchen.
Hoping to move closer to Lake/El, and not pay more by sacrificing the garage and a little bit of space.”
Joe I, it sounds like you’ve got Modified Unicorn Criteria (i.e., my often mocked Unicorn Criteria but without the garage). Do you have a downpayment, or do you want to continue renting? Places like those on Grant (discussed last week, in the mid-300’s), which I believe is now under contract, might run you just a little over $2k/mo, for a 3/2.5 just a couple of blocks off the park (but no garage).
I remember back a few years ago paying 1400 a month to live in a shit-tastic 2/1 garden unit in SW lakeview…
how awful is the place you live HD? is it embarrasing to have guests over?
“Trust fund. So i guess indirectly the latter. Problem?”
Agency problem. As its not your $ (directly) you’re not as likely to shop around. And I thought your rent #s were a bit high. I guess its all how you define ‘decent’ though.
We could afford to buy a place but need to be mobile for the next 3-5 years because of job uncertainty/medical training, so gonna just keep renting and make the best of it!
“Places like those on Grant (discussed last week, in the mid-300’s), which I believe is now under contract”
Incorrect. That is a wrong assumption.
“Agency problem. As its not your $ (directly) you’re not as likely to shop around. And I thought your rent #s were a bit high. I guess its all how you define ‘decent’ though.”
I shopped around a lot, it is very much my money, the more i use now the less i have left for later. my place, that i posted above, is what i’d consider ‘decent’, liveable and nice but not fanc by any means. I have a friend looking for a 1bed/1bath in streeterville with in-unit laundry in a newer or updated unit, with parking, with a 1400 budget and has found zip so far.
Riz: As a resident, with a soon be to high income, and a trust fund, my legal advice is to close that book as fast as possible….because remember what my profession says about doctors, finances and pens…..
Sonies: I live in a studio in uptown. The only guests I have are cockaroaches, bums and occasionally the dude who delivers the hydroponic. Usually he only stays for a toke or two but the bums and cockaroaches are full time residents.
“Riz: As a resident, with a soon be to high income, and a trust fund, my legal advice is to close that book as fast as possible….because remember what my profession says about doctors, finances and pens…..”
I know. i’ve only been dipping into the TF lately because i got tired of living in the south loop and having limited income for going out / going on vacas. So far i’ve barely dented even 1/2 a percent of it, i’m pretty careful for the most part.
“The only guests I have are cockaroaches, bums and occasionally the dude who delivers the hydroponic. Usually he only stays for a toke or two but the bums and cockaroaches are full time residents.”
I’m so glad I have someone who tokes up hydro on my floor because while not ideal it at least is a more pleasing aroma than the other (or possibly the same) neighbor who attempts to cook ethnic food.
haha hd- nice
““Places like those on Grant (discussed last week, in the mid-300’s), which I believe is now under contract”
Incorrect. That is a wrong assumption.”
So the “pending” status is *not* indicative of a contract? And you know this how?
Joe I: That makes sense. If you pound the pavement (virtually), I bet you could find a nice 2/2 condo for $2,000ish/mo in ELV or perhaps $2,200ish ELP. Good luck.
It appears that the reported IAR median sale price numbers are incorrect for the third month in a row.
I track sales and medians from the MLS and have never seen a difference like this in median prices before.
Jul 2010 IAR $196,500 G $196,500
Aug 2010 IAR $200,000 G $200,000
Sep 2010 IAR $180,000 G $180,000
Oct 2010 IAR $183,000 G $183,000
Nov 2010 IAR $206,000 G $180,000
Dec 2010 IAR $199,250 G $167,250
Jan 2010 IAR $170,000 G $149,500
My sales counts are still basically the same as the IAR reported. I wonder how they calculate the median now?
“So the “pending” status is *not* indicative of a contract? And you know this how?”
Redfin doesn’t show it anymore, leading me to believe it was pulled from the market. When something is pending redfin typically shows it as contingent.
“My sales counts are still basically the same as the IAR reported. I wonder how they calculate the median now?”
Considering the NAR was recently caught using a flawed methodology that overstated home sales by…oh I dunno 1,500,000 I think they use a rather creative methodology called fibbing to drum up consumer optimism.
HD – you’ve gotta get out of the studio, man. A guy like you who is surrounded by bums filing for BK and facing foreclosure at work all day needs to go home to a place you like. It will make you feel better. Please tell me you didn’t pay sticker for one of those TTT law schools in the city and now you are feverishly stuck paying Aunt Sallie a princely sum that exceeds my mortgage every month.
“Redfin doesn’t show it anymore, leading me to believe it was pulled from the market. When something is pending redfin typically shows it as contingent.”
So, I must have some special access, as:
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/419-W-Grant-Pl-60614/unit-3C/home/13349782
links to the unit and claims status as “Sale Pending”. It did apparently go inactive on Feb 10, but it’s still there.
HAhahha! permabear, long story short is that I don’t live in a studio in uptown, that’s a running joke because steve heitman said I couldn’t afford to live anywhere else. I rent an apartment on the NW side and in the next few years, which just so happens to coincide with 1) a relative bottom 2) relative stability 3) family concerns, I will buy a place to live. Last summer I thought about buying, even got preapproved, but when I actually when looking, I felt sick to my stomach and I couldn’t buy. ONe short sale we looked at I actually liked, but we ccrd’d the neighbor next door just to get a sense of what we were dealing with, and the guy was totaly upsidedown, and I was like “why buy today when the neighbor could go into foreclosure tomorrow” and I swear to god, I swear to god, the neighbor’s house is up for short sale today for only slightly more than the selling price of the foreclosure we looked at last year. Anon(tfo) i’m sure remembers the house I posted a link to it a few times. It’s that type of shit that prevents me from pulling the trigger. I see tons of deals in the park ridge area, but were are considering edgebrook, wildwood, sauganash, old irving, old edgebrook etc more family type urban places, quieter but nice. I did not go to some TTT I don’t work for biglaw either. realistically I’m probably right in the middle of where most lawyers of my early 2000 class are right now, at least those still practicing law. Quite frankly I’m just glad I have a job, I know a lot of solo and small firm, and even up to middle sized firm lawyers who are struggling for work and have been for a while.
“Anon(tfo) i’m sure remembers the house I posted a link to it a few times.”
The one with the HELOC extraction used to buy the new construction house a little further west? A rare occasion of HD posting a house *not* on a freeway ramp*!
*that’s where you find your “clients”, right HD? Hanging around the exit ramps?
Sorry, what? I was distracted for a while by Riz’s girlfriend’s silhouette.
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/4326-N-Kostner-Ave-60641/home/13481683
4324 N Kostner was a short sale I looked at last year and it closed last july for $290,00 and like I said, I looked up the neighbor who owed $600k on the house next door and I said to my significant other “this is a foreclosure waiting to happen, so what happens to the value of our house when the house next door does the same?
And low and behold it’s a short sale for $299,000. The facade is sort of ug but it seems nice on the inside with a finished basement. This will sell for less than the house next door sold for last july.
So, you see the problem here? The downward spiral which only begun? There’s another house we looked at down the block (much closer to the highway) that was bought in 2003 for $400,000 and listed for $400,000 last year – no takers before it was delisted. The last thing I want to do is buy a house, hold it for eight years, then have to try and sell it when I move to the suburbs for Jr. High (assuming that I had children at the time I bought it).
anon(tfo) – you have it backwards – I am the client when I meet someone hanging around the exit ramp.
She is a cute petite thing.
“I was distracted for a while by Riz’s girlfriend’s silhouette.”
Are you planning on using Belding if you move to Irving Park?
My mistake…you currently live in Irving Park. I meant if you stay in Irving Park with kids.
Yeah Riz, what’s with the pantless yoga on the rooftop? You’re a lucky dude! 🙂
I’m still deciding that. It’s a choice between Viator, ST. Edwards or Belding. I’d like to use belding but it’s not quite where it needs to be, but I’ve heard good things about nevertheless. Its no lincoln or bell or anything near it but it’s an acceptable alternative for the first few years. Viator however seems to be the place everyone sends their children. But this all begs the question: why deal with these issues at all? The elementary school I looked up in Park Ridge was 1% low income. 1% – that’s like one kid per grade level – compared to 70% of belding. And the 1% was carpenter which supposedly isn’t even the best elementary school. The commute will be longer, 30 minutes longer in traffic for my signficant other, which is why we’re thinking saganash or edgebrook which is off I-94 to get where is needed (close enough to 90 for me). Edgebrook is also very good and CPS, no questions asked. Living the LP, LV lifestyle just isn’t for me anymore. I’m just not interested in playing that CPS school lottery, or jockeying for the one $650k SFH on the block with multiple bids to take out a IO JUMBO ARM, or fighting traffic all hours of the day to go down belmont or addison to 90 in the morning (or back home)…and again, Even my boss was discussing with me just today that his tony NW suburb had a short sale on his block and the guy just ‘gave it away’ for less than what he bought for and he bought long after the bubble had already peaked. THese are real concerns to me. I make a finite amount of money, so does my significant other, and we’ve got student loans, child care, taxes (are pain in the ass when you’re phased out of the child tax credit) and even the child care tax credit is a measly $600 dollars a year. Plus savings. I don’t want to be eating cat food when I’m 65. If you spend too much in one area, there’s no money left in another area. I don’t want to make the mistake of spending too much on my house and suffering, literally suffering and paying for it in the long run. Some say this is stupid, but if you dn’t hvae the same concerns I do, I think of you as a god damn fool.
“#Chris M on February 23rd, 2011 at 4:15 pm
Are you planning on using Belding if you move to Irving Park?”
I don’t mean you as a god damn fool chris, I’m just speaking hypothetically to anyone who says “buy now for the long run” or “buy it because you like it and can afford it” I’m looking to buy when it makes sense, when I won’t have to eat dog food for breakfast lunch and dinner because I overpaid by $150k (plus interest over 30 years) for my house in 2010 or what not. These are real concerns for people, like sabrina points out, it’s not easy to come up with a large deposit for most people especially if bonuses are cut or non-existence in certain sectors of the economy. I don’t have a trust fund or family money to fall back on. I deal with the reality I have.
HD, buddy, if you would only want to live in that place on Kostner for 8 years, don’t buy it, start looking in the burb you want to move to. But if you could stomach it for longer, buy it now for 275 or even lower. Dude, you missed the top on that by a mile and the big losers are the last idiots into the dance, there is still downside risk, but at the same time, you have to remember the fundamental fraud about the US economy – the government will do anything necessary to bail out debtors (uncle sugar is the world’s largest) and as a result it simply does not pay to be strictly a saver right now.
That place is nice, move in ready, has a great front porch where you can teach junior the ways of the world, and best of all, NO SHARED WALLS. That place has the PermaBear seal of approval for purchase for the long haul, assuming your financials check out and the interest rate on your mortgage is low. At some point you’re going to have to hold your nose and pull the trigger on something. You do not want to be a perpetual renter. If even me and Peter Schiff are buying (strictly for utilitarian rather than investment purposes), you can jump in the pool, too. Trust me dude, if you’re paying interest on that thing for 30 years, there will be some point where you laugh at how little interest the noteholder is getting and if it is only worth $150k at the end of that 30 years, we will have been in such a d-spiral and horrendous economic times that you wouldn’t even be able to afford to eat dog food. The Fed is stomping on the dollar, they will have crushed today’s dollars into nothingness in 30 years. Plus, given that you are an attorney, if the place absolutely tanks in value, you could strategically default (after ensuring your other assets are all exempt from judgment) and drag out the foreclosure process for at least 2 years without paying legal fees, which would be close to enough for you to recoup your lost downpayment (as your housing cost would go to $0 for two years). You’ve gotta think strategically, man. But I appreciate your concern about buying in a declining market.
“if it is only worth $150k at the end of that 30 years, we will have been in such a d-spiral and horrendous economic times that you wouldn’t even be able to afford to eat dog food.”
That’s called a “return to affordability”, PB. The real bears here laugh at your scenario.
“She is a cute petite thing.
“I was distracted for a while by Riz’s girlfriend’s silhouette
Yeah Riz, what’s with the pantless yoga on the rooftop? You’re a lucky dude”
Haha, thanks guys. She’s big on yoga, the pic was actually from my living room. I just get trigger happy with the SLR sometimes =D “
HD… My advice… Patience. Too much inventory still to clear, u r unlike me where i feel the need to always live in my own place, so use that to your benefit. This is not a commodity or equity where one day the price is shit and the following week u r locked limit up 5 straight days with no way in. No one here is omniscient and no one knows with absolute certainty where this thing will go, but if it is up it wont be a 10 percent pop in a month. Right now the trend is your way, sellers have offers stacked up over the market and by far most importantly u can put your head on your pillow and sleep… The last is a rule I never break.
anon – I just checked on ETrade – I can buy $150k face of a 30 year Treasury strip interest payment zero coupon with a 4.92 rate for a smidge over $35k. Thus, assuming a 4.92% rate of inflation over the course of the next 30 years (30 years that will see the Fed stomp on the dollar to monetize our debt and pay SS benefits (and don’t bring up Japan, we can export inflation due to the dollar’s global standing)), someone saying that place is going to be worth $150k in 30 years is effectively saying it will be worth about $35k in today’s dollars. That is not called a return to affordability, that is called insanity, even bigger insanity than the bagholder who paid $600k for it. The only way that thing is $150k in 30 years is if my oft-ridiculed “Chi-troit” scenario plays out.
“That is not called a return to affordability, that is called insanity, even bigger insanity than the bagholder who paid $600k for it. The only way that thing is $150k in 30 years is if my oft-ridiculed “Chi-troit” scenario plays out.”
Dude, to be clear, I agree with you. But whenever I’ve proposed the “if things get that bad, you *still* won’t be buying a house”, the beary-bears deny any really dire consequences.
gringozecarioca: I’ve got plenty of patience. I need nothing more than a modest home in a nice area. By modest I like between $300 and $400k or better; and I’ve got lots of time.
permabear: I’ll be just fine financial wise and I’ve got a stellar credit score. However, I’m not looking to sell at a loss. I’m not looking to be stuck in 8 years if I need to move. Wherever I move is where my children will eventually attend high school. That might be old irving, it might be edgebrook, I don’t know yet. I know that I don’t need to buy today and kindergarten is still years away. I don’t particularly like the house on koster, not realy interested in it.
Here’s something I like in park ridge but not within walking distance of the metra which is important to me:
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Park-Ridge/501-Halien-Ter-60068/home/13647104
It needs a little updating but it’s a nice place and the elementary school is top notch, better than any elementary school I went to.
Again, more mixed messages from the media:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Investors-snap-up-cheap-homes-apf-2061349403.html?x=0
I completely agree with you about the budget considerations…often not given the necessary consideration. Private school just isn’t in the cards for our family (unless my wife, a teacher, were to get a job at a decent one and tuition was waived) and we’re not interested in Catholic school. We looked around at CPS options and we, too, wouldn’t be able or willing to make a SFH work in the popular areas with the desirable schools. We were living in Logan Square but just didn’t want to gamble with the CPS lottery system and we like the idea of walking to school…maybe that’s an old fashioned value but driving kids to school and back home everyday, while an option, just doesn’t seem appealing at all.
After looking for several years we bought a SFH in central Oak Park a few months ago…we came in with a bid almost 30% below list price, which was in line with comps, and we ended up in the upper $200s. It was an estate sale, so sellers were flexible…actually far more flexible than any other sellers we tried negotiating with, including banks. With a fixed rate of 4% the mortgage is just over $1,000 a month, so quite affordable from that perspective. Really the only thing we were heisitant about were the Oak Park taxes but honestly taxes seem to be high in most areas with good attendance area K-12 schools.
I kind of agree with PermaBear about buying in an area where you can also rely on the high school, even though I think Old Irving Park is a pretty neat area. Who know though…maybe the high school options in Chicago in 15-20 years will by more varied and less competitive than some Ivy League schools.
“If even me and Peter Schiff are buying (strictly for utilitarian rather than investment purposes), you can jump in the pool, too.”
PermaBear-Gotta say that news of Peter Schiff buying really shocked me. A friend turned me onto him a while back and I’ve really found his analysis fascinating. He’s calling for further drops similar to what Shiller called for the other day, so it’s interesting that he would buy given this outlook. He says he owns because he enjoys the house, even though he expects it to depreciate like most other assets. I’m sure his outlook on inflation, as with yours, was a motivating factor paired with cheap money at a fixed rate.
What is really strange is that every renter I come across is unhappy deep down and WANTS to buy. On the other hand, while some homeowners gripe and moan, I find that they are more settled and satisfied than renters. I don’t understand this. Seriously, ask yourselves the same question – isn’t it true that most renters would like to buy? Why is that?
Chris M: I wouldn’t mind private catholic schools but if I’m going to spend $8,000 or $10,000 I’d rather pay it in taxes and go the public school rather than pay slightly less taxes and pay additional money for private school
“What is really strange is that every renter I come across is unhappy deep down and WANTS to buy. On the other hand, while some homeowners gripe and moan, I find that they are more settled and satisfied than renters. I don’t understand this. Seriously, ask yourselves the same question – isn’t it true that most renters would like to buy? Why is that?”
That’s not necessarily true. I don’t have any desire to buy for the next few years. I think for a lot of people, ie, students, residents, professionals starting out early in their career, renting is an easier option as they aren’t always certain they will be staying in the same place for a long period of time. Also, Having kids, choosing an area with a good school and buying with due diligence all plays a role. It’s not about unhappiness most of the time, just about waiting for the right time, deal, etc..HD is a prime example.
What I tell people is that if I reached this stage of my life at any other point in history I would already own a home. The difference now is we are recoiling from the largest nationwide real estate bubble our country has ever seen. I didn’t make the bubble, I’m just living through the effects. When the bubble has played out, I’ll buy. I still have 35 or 40 good working years ahead of me as long as my body and mind stay agile. I’ll be OK waiting a few more years for the bubble to play out.
Clio, you’re projecting. You (and I, for that matter) may assign significant utility to owning property instead of renting, and we may determine that the kinds of properties available to renters don’t met our standards, for whatever reason. However, you (and I) knew what we were getting into, and we have the stomach for paying the big property taxes (and the big assessments, in your case) and paying someone extra to take care of the problems that arise (or doing the legwork to take care of them ourselves, in my case). This is not the case for everyone. I know many people, especially people living in 2/2s or smaller, who regret having bought into the “buy now or be priced out forever” mindset that was prevalent from 2003 – 2008 or so in Chicago. They feel pissed that they would not have in fact been priced out forever, and that they had to handle all the things, and bear all the costs, over the last several years that they wouldn’t have had to as renters. My current home is probably worth less than what I paid for it, and I’m fine with that – I love where I live and the utility I’ve derived from this living situation has been far greater than the factor by which whatever potential financial detriment I have suffered exceeds the greater quality of my current home over whatever inferior rental property would be most comparable. But that’s not most people – most people are pissed because they might have had more cash if they rented and put their down payments in FDIC-insured accounts. I reserve my primary financial brain energy for securities and real estate other than where I live, my homestead is where I want to make sure that I’m happy. I sense that you’re the same, but most people, in my experience, really are not. Plenty of people only bought because they followed the herd and thought that doing so would afford them a lifestyle (after a flip for a nice profit) thay they couldn’t afford through their regular income and assets.
However, I don’t feel that the fact that many people would just rather rent instead of dealing with owning real estate means anything negative about the future of the local housing market – renters will still require housing at about the same rates as owners and that demand is a major determining factor for housing prices.
“With a fixed rate of 4% the mortgage is just over $1,000 a month, so quite affordable from that perspective. Really the only thing we were heisitant about were the Oak Park taxes but honestly taxes seem to be high in most areas with good attendance area K-12 schools.”
Good for you Chris M. A $1000 housing payment? Fantastic. And in a great town like Oak Park. These are the stories I like to hear. Thanks for the update.
“Again, more mixed messages from the media:”
I don’t see the “mixed message” at all.
Existing home sales rose last month due to investors buying cheap foreclosured properties. The same thing is happening in Chicago (except our sales are still declining.) But 50% of those sales are now distressed sales (according to Gary.)
Does that sound like a normal and healthy market to you?
If 30% of all home sales are now all cash- does that seem good?
Not to me. Although I’m glad some of the inventory is moving. It’ll come back on the market as a flip or as rental stock.
“A $1000 housing payment?”
Nearly $1,000 for principal/interest. Doesn’t include insurance (about $45/month our here) or taxes (under appeal with board of review right now). Still, it’s a lot easier to swallow the tax bill knowing your kid is guaranteed a spot in a well respected elementary, middle, and high school within several blocks of home.
HD – good for you. Many times, I almost wish I would have waited (instead of buying my house and in-town in 2004-2006) – but then I think of all of the great memories I have had and all of the fun I have had in both of my places (the wonderful holiday parties and pool parties with my family/friends at my house or the many wonderful nights out downtown) and I realize that getting the absolute best value is definitely not as important as your happiness. People should buy a place when the time is right for them – financially it may not be the best idea but socially/emotionally/psychologically you may be MUCH better off. Why not reduce stress and just make the move? If you can afford it and know that you will be in the place for 7 years, MAKE THE MOVE.
Speaking of Oak Park, 926 S LYMAN AVE came on the market about a week ago at $130k. It’s a bit close to the Ike but otherwise appears to be a great deal for a 4BD/2BA bungalow in town near the Harrison St Arts District and Blue Line. If anyone is interested in checking out this place (or any other property), shoot me an email at chris@312agent.com. As posted a while back, I will happily rebate 1/2 of the buyer’s agent commission to any CC reader.
Did 30 year FR ever get to 4%? I don’t think that I ever saw an undiscounted rate below 4.25%.
We bought the rate down a little bit. I believe the rate at the time was 4.25% with a lender credit of about $500.
30yr fixed rate got down to 3.75% with 1.4 points at the lowest level I saw.
Right now, there are bascially only 4 GZ-type CPS high school options available:
North Side Prep
Walter Payton
Whitney Young
Lane Tech
These are difficult to get into if you don’t qualify for non-white quotas. Does anyone know generally what the “percentile” for the entrance exam makes the cut for white/asian students for the above 4? I heard if you’re white you need 97th percentile to get into Northside.
“We were living in Logan Square but just didn’t want to gamble with the CPS lottery system”
“I kind of agree with PermaBear about buying in an area where you can also rely on the high school, even though I think Old Irving Park is a pretty neat area. Who know though…maybe the high school options in Chicago in 15-20 years will by more varied and less competitive than some Ivy League schools.”
One more…Jones College Prep
“Speaking of Oak Park, 926 S LYMAN AVE came on the market about a week ago at $130k.”
Trying to prove HD correct that we will see prices overcorrect UNDER the 1999 level, huh? 🙂
Has Jones gained popular acceptance yet among the Green Zone parents?
This is how I feel;
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3288/2961175776_b341ca0fc5.jpg
“Trying to prove HD correct that we will see prices overcorrect UNDER the 1999 level, huh?”
I know he is fan of homes near expressways…speaking of which, I’ve notice that banks tend to price properties within a block of expressways very low. A lot of the place in Old Irving Park, near the entrance ramps, were listed I believe under $100k.
“Has Jones gained popular acceptance yet among the Green Zone parents?”
My understanding is it’s considered a better school than Lane Tech.
Riz is back: http://www.findamug.com/designimg.php?id=18916416&size=350
Haha, I like that one Dan.
I didn’t go anywhere Dan, I just, yknow, have a job so I can’t post on here every day.
“Has Jones gained popular acceptance yet among the Green Zone parents?”
I thought Jones was one of the best high schools in the city?
Re: Jones
I’m just wondering if parents from SoPo send their kids there, if accepted. I had the impression that only Northside, Payton, Whitney Young were acceptable. I dont even think SoPo parents send their kids to Lane Tech.
The letters just went out.
Is there anyone out there sending their child to Jones? Please speak up.
what’s with the night owls tonite myself included?
Haven’t you heard? Workforce down, individual productivity up.
http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/the-scientific-fundamentalist/201005/why-night-owls-are-more-intelligent-morning-larks
“what’s with the night owls tonite myself included?”
ha im still working! had to take a break and hit carsons (though hands down, twin anchors is better!)…
stupid coffee and unlimited amnt of work
“That’s called a “return to affordability”, PB. The real bears here laugh at your scenario.”
That’s my line, I’m still a RE bear, and I’ve never seen a scenario like that proposed on cc.
“Dude, to be clear, I agree with you. But whenever I’ve proposed the “if things get that bad, you *still* won’t be buying a house”, the beary-bears deny any really dire consequences.”
Dude, for someone who jumps on HD every time he stretches a bit to make a point, you look like a fool diung the same.
G… From now on all comments directed towards jumping on someone when they are stretching will be directed towards Rizs yoga stretching girlfriend.
So let it be written, so let it be done!
btw… I think in the middle of anon and my global econ convo someone asked for assistance with an apraiser. Hopefully someone can help him out since thats what this site is really supposed to be about….
Dave m: the first boomers to the exit will take the 20% haircut but the johnny come latelys can expect cuts even larger. I’ve really sort of grabbed on to your argument that 80M boomers are trying to sell to 65M younger and poorer folk. Of course it is not that simple but its a relatively simple concept to grab on to.
Dan. Consent decree was struck down a few years back so race does not directly play into it. Now there is a complex way of considering what census tract you live in and rating how wealthy it is from 1-4. That said, you have to rate very high to get into the best public high schools.
This whole thing is fun to watch. The boomers had it so good, and now their own kids will be in trouble, unless the market corrects. This is just unsustainable. I find it hilarious seeing all the commenters talk about a recovery in real estate that is coming soon.
““Has Jones gained popular acceptance yet among the Green Zone parents?”
My understanding is it’s considered a better school than Lane Tech.”
Agreed.
“Dude, for someone who jumps on HD every time he stretches a bit to make a point, you look like a fool diung the same.”
Okay, by beary-bear, I really meant Bob, who was probably just being a Monday-Bob and disagreeable primarily for disagreement’s sake. But it was all premised on a (I thought obvious) joke comment.
So, you agree that if things really turn to shi… bad stuff, (basically) no one will actually be better off? Which is the real underlying point that *has* gotten some pushback in the past, and not in the legit “things won’t actually get that bad” way.
“So, you agree that if things really turn to shi… bad stuff, (basically) no one will actually be better off? Which is the real underlying point that *has* gotten some pushback in the past, and not in the legit “things won’t actually get that bad” way. ”
Sure, if what permabear described does occur. I just hadn’t seen anyone present such a dire outlook on CC before. Not even from HD. I read HD’s comment as the 30 year effects of overpaying today by $150K, not the prop being worth $150K less in 30 years than today’s price. The former would not be bad for everyone, the latter just might be.
I seem to remember pushing back against your contention of armegeddon for all over much lower declines, though. But that was years ago.
“I seem to remember pushing back against your contention of armegeddon for all over much lower declines, though. But that was years ago.”
My recollection is that my contention was based on Bob hypothesizing that he’d be in great shape if the bottom completely fell out, but I’m (1) probably thinking of something diff than you are, (2) I have def mentioned hyperbolic bad scenarios in response to others (ie, not you) bringing up how great it will be when price drops reach point X, which you likely ignored for being hyperbolic, sarcastic and generally unfit for serious response and (3) it’s entirely probable that your recollection is basically correct, tho it’s also likely we were talking past each other, as we have often done.
Roma: There are ways to cheat to get the desired results (i.e. quotas). They use these other methods, it’s dishonest. It sets a bad example for society.
I agree on all possibilities, anon.
Exactly G, I was saying that I didn’t want to overpay by $150,000 today, and be stuck paying the $150,000 PLUS $132,008.68 in interest at 5% over the next 30 years (assuming full amortization). That extra $132,000 in interest might just pay for a state school education in 18 years and the extra $150,000 means I won’t have to eat cat food in my old age. I’ve seen price drops that large on houses, they drop from $510,000 initial listing (very high) down to $360,000 or so. I can’t afford to make an ENORMOUS financial mistake like in these perilous financial times. The advice “buy because you can afford it” or “buy when it makes sense” or “buy for psychological reasons” is just a bunch of nonsense. I’ll buy when I know that I’m not going to overpay by too much and right now. Buy today for too much and risk the neighbor across the street becomes a short sale.
I have no idea what the house will be worth in 30 years, that’s irrelevant though. It’s what I have to pay today, but what the house is worth in 30 years is not determined by what I pay today. And I don’t want to overpay today.
“Do you guys know how to analyze data? Geez – these numbers reflect units that went under contract in oct/nov and dec – the economy is actually much more stable today – so this is a snapshot of something that happened 4 months ago. The interesting numbers are going to be coming out in June/July (regarding April and May sales). I would bet anything that the numbers are going to be much higher (YOY) at that time.”
OK, here’s my bet clio:
I bet that the Chicago single-family and condominium sales discussed in this thread will be lower YOY for June 2011 compared to June 2010. The IAR total for June 2010 was 2,526 sales.
http://www.illinoisrealtor.org/newsreleases/july2010
We agree to use the June 2011 IAR figure to decide the bet, which will be released in the 3rd week of July.
Now, what to bet? I got it! The loser agrees to be banned from posting here by Sabrina forever.
I took you up on your offer to “bet anything” clio. Now we will see what your word is worth?
“Here’s the map (red would you the biggest advantage, followed by orange)”
Any feel/guess for how much that will change with new census data?
probably not too much, since afaik a lot of it comes from acs anyway (via popstats)
“probably not too much, since afaik a lot of it comes from acs anyway (via popstats)”
City dropped ~140,000 people from the last census estimate. It *should* shift things a fair amount, I would think.
roma, so I can see why people living at the montgomery pay a little extra… they are in a tier 1 census tract and get priority for magnet schooling!
Right, but as you know, a census tract would have to change significantly on the indicators *relative to other tracts* since the tier cutoffs for the overall SES score will depend on the citywide distribution.
disclaimer: IANAD(emographer)
“roma, so I can see why people living at the montgomery pay a little extra… they are in a tier 1 census tract and get priority for magnet schooling!”
See, that’s a perfect example of one that will change *dramatically*. That census tract shows 0 graduate school degrees and only 6 college degrees in the tract, which covers Hudson to Larrabee, Superior to Oak,
Sonies – yup! There are a couple other anomalies like that, too. They were cited frequently in the debates about the policy.
“Right, but as you know, a census tract would have to change significantly on the indicators *relative to other tracts* since the tier cutoffs for the overall SES score will depend on the citywide distribution. ”
Well, one of the factors should be population–if it is 25% per tier based on count of census tracts, rather than population in the census tracts, that’s a major failure.
Roma:
Told you.
“We bought the rate down a little bit. I believe the rate at the time was 4.25% with a lender credit of about $500.”
Just to follow up on this, I hate to be a stickler, but this isn’t a 4% rate – your lender is letting you pay off the balance at a nominally lower rate because you have prepaid some of that interest. That’s what paying discount points is. It doesn’t mean it was the wrong decision for you, but you could conceivably find someone to pay you interest if you paid them enough points on the front end. It doesn’t change the real interest rate you’re paying on the loan. That sounds like it was 4.25%, which is still an excellent rate, especially if you stay for a long time.
My favorite loan product right now is the 5/5 or 5/1 “renewable” ARMs a few places offer. With a max increase of 2% per period, you’re looking at a worst case scenario blended rate of current 5/1 rates + about 88 bps for the next ten years. With the ability to reset, a more likely blended rate for the first ten years is somewhere around very low 4s. The ability to save that money in the first five years to pay down principal or otherwise invest is also very attractive.
“Just to follow up on this, I hate to be a stickler, but this isn’t a 4% rate – your lender is letting you pay off the balance at a nominally lower rate because you have prepaid some of that interest. That’s what paying discount points is. It doesn’t mean it was the wrong decision for you, but you could conceivably find someone to pay you interest if you paid them enough points on the front end. It doesn’t change the real interest rate you’re paying on the loan. That sounds like it was 4.25%, which is still an excellent rate, especially if you stay for a long time.”
You’re right, the no points rate was between 4.125% and 4.25% at the time, so we could pay some points to bump down to 4.125% or get a credit and take 4.25%. Looking back, I just would’ve taken the 4.25% with the credit since the money is lost if we don’t stay beyond the breakeven period, which was the intention when making our decision, but amortized over 30 years the point or so with the lower rate ends up saving more money.
sonies, i think it’s a week by week thing based on where him and his 17 yr old best friend, who is now also his moms new husband, decide to park the trailer.
G.O., Ze.
lolz. I sometimes think danny is bob’s alter ego, who dares to go where bob does not. where has bob been lately anyways?
“sonies, i think it’s a week by week thing based on where him and his 17 yr old best friend, who is now also his moms new husband, decide to park the trailer.”
Sometng is weird this month. Record snow storms. Weird in fighting here. The middle east has mass popular uprisings. My workload is the lightest it has been in 7 years depite being totally crazy just a few months ago. I want February to be over now.
“Sometng is weird this month. Record snow storms. Weird in fighting here. The middle east has mass popular uprisings. My workload is the lightest it has been in 7 years depite being totally crazy just a few months ago. I want February to be over now.”
The city elected Rahm and an alderman named Ameya in Rahm’s home(-ish) ward. I say we blame the Jews and the Indians. Anyway we can blame the Koreans, too?
if this mid-east thing rolls into saudi arabia we could be testing 1000 on the spx pretty quickly.
Saudis are way way way too lazy to overthrow an octogenarian king. And they focus their attention on their studies like flight school, etc.
“My ultra witty sarcasm was either too ultra witty or just not funny. damn.”
I enjoyed the imagery for sure. cheeto dust and dr. pepper sounds about right, haha.
JoeI – I am half Italian (1st generation) and really try hard to stop these stereotypes (although it is very hard to do with “entertainment” being what it is – ie Jersey shore). Italians are beautiful, peaceful educated and cultured people. Visit italy and you will see…..
* I should have specified – visit NORTHERN Italy – southerners (especially Sicilians) are AWFUL…..
(ok, before anyone attacks me – this is meant to be a joke – ie – trying to quell bigotry/racism and then adding something just as inflammatory and bigoted as what I was trying to stop – ok it isn’t funny when I have to explain)
“Sometng is weird this month. Record snow storms. Weird in fighting here. The middle east has mass popular uprisings. My workload is the lightest it has been in 7 years depite being totally crazy just a few months ago. I want February to be over now.”
HD – buy a house – you will be happier and your life will be more exciting!
“Saudis are way way way too lazy to overthrow an octogenarian king.”
you are correct, my best friend lives in Saudi and he says they are the laziest people he has ever seen in his life. And he’s a pilot so that means something
“Have to say i am surprised by your reply. Sad.”
I don’t really mind them as a people so much. Many are annoying but whatever. Its more their politics I mind and they seem united around the left, a very cohesive voting bloc. (And when people accuse me of being a Glenn Beck wacko I have to correct them that I split with him on Israel and side more with Obama).
“I am half Italian (1st generation) and really try hard to stop these stereotypes ”
Being half Irish it’s a reason I don’t celebrate St. Patrick’s day here, especially the bar weekend day. It’s a shameful excuse for people to get excessively intoxicated starting early in the day. As if adults needed an excuse anyway, but really if you’re drinking at a bar in the AM you’re sad.
In any case I am watching gleefully the noose close around Gadaffi after what he did to the Italians there.
“if this mid-east thing rolls into saudi arabia we could be testing 1000 on the spx pretty quickly.”
This is what the Glenn Beck drunks at the bar are calling for. Which is typically a sky is falling Armageddon scenario. So I don’t place a lot of faith in it.
And if/when it doesn’t come to fruition Glenn Beck will find some other current event to connect to his end of days ideology via a complicated series of events.
i never said it will go to saudi arabia, i am kinda 50/50 on it with no argument other than it seems to be the trend. i am just saying that if it does… Wow is that a HUGE problem. If supplies get cut from there hope u r living within walking distance from work. Of course down here no one will know it happened since it is carnaval.
Clio, I should have put a disclaimer on there. I’m half Italian (Calabria – we’re guys kicking the sicilians), quarter Irish, quarter German. Or as Dan would put it, a “Mc-Guinea-Kraut”.
Good WaPo article on the unrest & Saudi Arabia:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/24/AR2011022406480.html
“If supplies get cut from there hope u r living within walking distance from work.”
Even people like me that can walk to the el & walk to work or even living well below my means with a hybrid car able to stomach higher prices: I still work in the private sector & $8/gallon gas would be catastrophic to the economy (and my employment prospects).
I think BHO needs to stay away from Bahrain & Saudi Arabia and allow their governments to deal with this by any means they deem necessary. If it means expelling journalists from certain areas these days so be it.
JoeI – I totally got it the first time – I was trying to make this thread a little lighter (as you were probably doing as well) and calm the “angry” people.
Editor’s Note:
As many of you can tell- I deleted scores of comments from this thread and the Reta thread.
I don’t know which was worse- today’s or Christmas Eve’s ranting.
Maybe it is the weather, as HD suggested. I personally think that the comments have gotten meaner since real estate started double dipping. Is this how it’s going to be all spring? Because it’s annoying for those of us who want to talk about the property or the real estate market.
Its always a slippery slope when class, race, and politics gets interjected into real estate as it sometimes does due to the public school link, unfortunately. I wish there were a way to divorce it entirely.
2-4 more inches of snow tonight. Snowiest February on record. Also my first winter with thunder snow (blizzard) and freezing rain thunder & lightning (last night).
“Dave m: the first boomers to the exit will take the 20% haircut but the johnny come latelys can expect cuts even larger. I’ve really sort of grabbed on to your argument that 80M boomers are trying to sell to 65M younger and poorer folk. Of course it is not that simple but its a relatively simple concept to grab on to.”
I’m sure that the supposed 5% annual inflation will help the housing market, but will there be wage growth that is comparable to previous periods of inflation? Doubtful. I have a feeling the spring will have lower than last year, but not much lower.
“I’m sure that the supposed 5% annual inflation will help the housing market, ”
If there is 5% annual inflation it will come from commodities, especially oil and likely have no impact on the housing market.
“I personally think that the comments have gotten meaner since real estate started double dipping”
I don’t know, Sabrina – I know that I am a little bit irritated today because I lost out on this excellent foreclosure – I bid over asking – all cash and there were multiple offers and I lost out. I just can’t believe it:
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Oak-Brook/17-Tuscan-Ct-60523/home/21734112
(oh – and it is not even in the Hinsdale/ob school district – it is in the elmhurst school district!!!!).
I know. All these housing bulls are saying inflation in 2012 and 2013 will be in the 5-6% range, saving them from any housing double dip. If you look at the dollar compared to other currencies like Brazil’s, US home prices have dropped a lot more. This recent oil spike will be interesting and I have a feeling will lead to changes in driving behavior again.
“This recent oil spike will be interesting and I have a feeling will lead to changes in driving behavior again.”
You would think this, wouldn’t you? If gasoline spikes to $5 a gallon? But unless prices stay that high, Americans have short memories. I really believed that the Great Recession would change people’s spending habits (less consumption, more saving) but after only about a year, most people are going back to their old ways.
“If gasoline spikes to $5 a gallon?”
If Saudi Arabia goes the way of Libya it will be more like $8-9/gallon. I don’t think it get to that but our administration better come in line with supporting their government and very soon.
“(less consumption, more saving)”
People’s personal incomes have been cut significantly in this downturn. Its very hard to increase savings in that scenario. Savings takes a disproportionately large hit and spending a hit as well but less so (its harder to tell your kids they can’t play soccer this year or help with tuition vs. cutting back on retirement funds).
“but after only about a year, most people are going back to their old ways.”
Of course – this is what I have been saying all along. This is why everything is cyclical – nobody has a long term memory for this type of pain. And this is precisely the reason we will have another housing bubble in 10-15 years. Remember, the kids that are 15-20 right now have no idea about this housing crisis – in 10-15 years, they will be 25-35 y/o and will want the LP/LV 2/2 because it is “cool”. Just wait and watch,…..
“You would think this, wouldn’t you? If gasoline spikes to $5 a gallon? But unless prices stay that high, Americans have short memories. I really believed that the Great Recession would change people’s spending habits (less consumption, more saving) but after only about a year, most people are going back to their old ways.”
Wait. What if gas spikes to $10/gal?…$5 is nothin…the reason people spendings habbits fell back to old ways is primarly due to the recovery of the stock market (it was the easiest thing the fed could control to resurrect confidence). People feel their 401k’s are safe again…by no means am I a pessimist BUT I am a realist.
“in 10-15 years, they will be 25-35 y/o and will want the LP/LV 2/2 because it is “cool”. Just wait and watch,…..”
Very plausible. However the banks and government will be restrained from the crazy loans that were made during the boom, preventing crazy valuations.
Sure if they get it for 45c on the dollar vs. peak prices on their future incomes sure. Totally possible and doable.
Easy financing was like the drug that enabled crazy valuations. The banks, Fannie & Freddie and subprime & Alt-A lenders were the enablers of the addiction.
Remove the enablers, much like locking up a drug addict in isolation, basically guarantees they won’t be doing drugs and will sober up.
Your argument, at it’s core, clio, is a straw man as it does not address the removal of core enablers that led to this bust, which will definitely detrimentally impact prices.
Err removal of core enablers that led to this boom.
“And this is precisely the reason we will have another housing bubble in 10-15 years.”
I disagree. No bubble has ever reinflated that quickly. This one isn’t even done deflating. It will take decades to recover from this housing bust. Real estate, for most people, is a dead asset class. There will be people who will make money (we are already seeing that with the flippers/renovators) but for the average american, it is a deflating asset.
That house that Chris linked to in Oak Park on the other thread was the perfect example. It’s listed under the 1998 price. That’s a lot to overcome in most people’s minds. Just ask the Japanese. They have been waiting 20 years to even hit the bottom there. None of their young people talk about buying real estate.
“Remember, the kids that are 15-20 right now have no idea about this housing crisis”
False imo. The next generation is more connected via internet than any other. They have the ability to touch any continent, any city, any news in the world! Do not assume the next generation is naive by any means.
A-fed, if we see and stay at $10 a gallon, then that could be a game changer. But if we spike up and then come back down- I doubt many people would move their families closer to their work etc.
Interest rates are the wild card that rarely gets talked about. We’ve become so used to them at 5% that no one can imagine a world of real estate with 8% or 10% rates. In the last stagflation period, interest rates climbed into the double digits and stayed there for 13 years.
“A-fed, if we see and stay at $10 a gallon, then that could be a game changer. But if we spike up and then come back down- I doubt many people would move their families closer to their work etc.”
I agree….but they will change their lifestyle to compensate – for better or worse.
I also agree that interest rates are a MAJOR factor but as rates increase, credit will become easier to get. Banks will get richer and common folk penalized – as usual.
Also, historically hasn’t it shown that interest rates and housing prices have an inverse relationship? – aside from inflation factors.
“It will take decades to recover from this housing bust. ”
Ha – you guys are living in some sort of bubble yourselves. Please get on some medications stat – you are becoming delusional!!!
Housing and real estate will be just fine. Even if the future generations know what is going on – it is very divorced from their desire to own a cool place – or just own a place, period. You guys are ridiculous in acting as if the whole world is going to collapse. Maybe you need to get new jobs or new friends or hand out at new places where people are not so negative and are more realistic.
“Do not assume the next generation is naive by any means.”
I actually agree with clio in principle that they _will_ want to buy and “own” in Chicago given the opportunity.
Chicago is one of the primary meet/meat markets/hookup places for midwest and other transplant 20-somethings migrating from other areas to the greenzone who felt that their hometowns weren’t sufficient for them for whatever reason. And an awesome M:F single ratio vs. other midwest cities (from a guy’s perspective). To lay claim to being an “owner” is a status symbol high in a lot of people’s minds and I doubt that mentality will change unless the green zone de-gentrifies significantly (which I don’t think it will).
That being said, valuations only got to the level they did via core enablers. Remove the core enablers as I mentioned above and valuations come crashing down.
“you are becoming delusional!!!”
Clio do you really think that 2/2 featured on Sheffield yesterday is going to come back to it’s 500k valuation without the availability of easy low down payment financing?
And also I don’t know the financing details but I’d be willing to give odds that the owners didn’t have 20% down earnest earned money. That area is for 20-somethings and appeals to them. They didn’t earn that 100k downpayment it was either parent loan money or a low downpayment mortgage.
If you still don’t understand the drivers of these insane valuations you are either 1) delusional, 2) incapable of learning, or 3) in denial as to reality. Sorry dude it’s you who doesn’t get it.
“To lay claim to being an “owner” is a status symbol high in a lot of people’s minds and I doubt that mentality will change unless the green zone de-gentrifies significantly (which I don’t think it will).”
to an extent yes, there is a social status symbol with owning something, but I have yet to meet a truly wealthy person that has rented their whole life….then again, housing never goes down (cough cough).
true words about the core enablers, but there are always bulls on the land and sharks in the water.
What happened before the bubble?
All the 20 and 30 somethings rented in the neighborhoods they wanted to live in and then they BOUGHT a single family house after saving for a downpayment. Sure- there were some who bought condos prior to the SFH – but there wasn’t this overwhelming desire to own a condo in the 1990s.
SFH prices will recover faster in the more desirable neighborhoods. But condos won’t unless they’re big enough to raise a family in. And then those will be priced the same as the SFH- so many will simply choose the SFH.
“SFH prices will recover faster”
Yeah but I’m not going to confuse faster with fast.
The SFH’s got bid up to 800k+ simply because the McCrapbox condos got bid up to 400k+ for a 2/2.
Remove the lower leg and the stool falls.
Even the green zone SFHs will suffer. Not nearly as much as non-GZ areas that were impacted by the bubble I predict but still suffer it will.
Sure there will be a select few that won’t with all the bells and whistles to appeal to the rich, but it won’t be like the bubble at all. Not even close.
I don’t see any Chicago RE as a good buy these days with the high tax & spend regime and political uncertainty facing us. It’s going to be a political game of make the middle class pay for it. Just wait and see.
I don’t disagree with you Bob because I still think the downpayment will be the hardship for people buying in the upper bracket (i.e. anything over conforming). Without being able to move-up from another property, how will they get it?
I look at dozens of properties every day. It’s pretty rare to see the $700,000 or $800,000 greenzone property (SFH or condo) with a $200k to $300k downpayment. More likely it’s $50k or $60k or sometimes 100% financing (if bought within the last 10 years- which most were.)
Who do those people sell to? They’ll be able to sell- but not without significant price reductions. Rising interest rates will wipe out even more prospective buyers.
But I still think the SFH market in the prime neighborhoods will recover moderately faster than the condo market.
it amazes me when someone who lives in and around the top 1 percent bracket thinks the rest of the country is in the same boat as them. If you open your eyes and see whats going on elsewhere it is very ugly.
Again 2 freakin trillion a year is gov’t spending and borrowed, remove that and you have a complete collapse. Keep doing it and shortly our interest expense exceeds the nations ability to tax. I saw it in brasil in ’93 and it was crazy. Like HD says debt is not wealth.
Side note… Gas here is 7.60 a gallon
“it amazes me when someone who lives in and around the top 1 percent bracket thinks the rest of the country is in the same boat as them”
Gringo – it equally amazes me to see when the majority of the idiots on this site seem to think that the world is ending, nobody has any money, everybody is jobless (or soon to be), nobody bought their existing homes with any downpayment, everybody is underwater, nobody can afford a house worth more than 100-200k…. it’s obvious that this site is dedicated to younger people who are financially insecure – otherwise more people would be laughing at the idiotic doomsday scenarios painted by a majority of regular posters(and the occasional rant from someone in the peanut gallery).
Gas prices have already risen significantly. if they go to $6 or even $7 for an extended period of time, lots of companies will be forced to raise their prices 10-12%, which will create a ripple in the economy. Wages will not rise proportionally in any way. I see a lot of pain coming unfortunately. For housing, let’s hope this isn’t as severe an issue as some say.
funny i talk regularly about a booming Brasil. So much for a world is ending theory.
As for younger and financially insecure i am the same age as you.
As for the comments about people being underwater, there are entire states where everyone is. And as for people that bought with nothing down it is a clearly documented unfortunate truth.
As for the attacks on peoples ignorant and unfounded bearishness i have been reading them here for over 2 years and so far the attackees have been right on the money.
Kick the can can only go so far. Eventually u have problems.
As for my rants from the peanut gallery,they are based on the ability to read a balance sheet and cash flow statement be it a persons, companies, or countries. Throw in a bit of experience and i see a serious and 100 percent inevitable contraction in gdp coming.
Your analysis is basically i hang out with rich people and they are ok and time will resolve everything. I agree with u on points and thing RE has a place in a portfolio, thats part of why i linked to 50 percent rent increas in 1 yr down here, anything can happen. But what i see there is that pain needed to be taken and it hasnt. Banks are still insolvent and triilions in losses need to be eaten. Capitalism requires cycles to extinguish bad debt and it is not being allowed to take place but it inevitably must.
by the way u do realize that i think it is close to 1 in 5 in the US are now on food assistance programs and about the same percent are underemployed and the only reason unemployment dropped a bit is because so many people havent worked in so long they are no longer being counted. Not healthy when a number improves soley by diminishing the denominator of a fraction.
The rich can’t save the economy this time around, because they aren’t spending enough. They are sitting on their money. They are paying their employees less on an inflation adjusted basis than historical norms due to the high unemployment rate. A lot of people are struggling, even those with master’s degrees and who are employed. This is why it’s hard to make a large purchase over $500-600K when there’s such a lack of confidence. $7 gasoline would ruin it even more for a lot of people.
“As for the comments about people being underwater, there are entire states where everyone is.”
Nothing more needs to be said – just read this statement and tell me if this is not the most ridiculous statement out there.
You know what – I really am getting fed up trying to convince chronically depressed negative people out there that things are not as bad as they seem. If you want to believe it, go ahead – and then watch as the rest of the country and chicago move on with their lives, buying the properties featured on CC while you guys wait on the sidelines waiting for the sky to fall……
clio.. Try nevada.
Chronically depressed, far from i am practically a giggly retard.
Sidelines far from, i have stated repeatedly with my bearish predictions that i am rather long.
And no one in five in the US are not on foodstamps and underemployed. This is all a delusional hullucionagenic fantasy.
And the US isn’t running a 2 tril a year deficit with its biggest creditor being no longer a buyer forcing the same people selling the debt to be the buyer. Wow that’s healthy!!!
China made a rookie to capitalism mistake, they thought they were beating number 1 until they realized they were up so much they cant get paid. So they learned rule number 1. Spread out you risk. China this year surpassed the US as Brasils biggest trade partner. Why is that? Same goin on in chile.
Clio, must be nice to be living in your secure ivory tower, looking down on the middle and lower classes, all the while shouting, “hey, things look GREAT up here! what’s wrong with you people down there?”
take a look at the charts called “winner takes all” as well as the rest of the stuff here:
http://motherjones.com/politics/2011/02/income-inequality-in-america-chart-graph
(disclaimer; I’m not a regular Mother Jones reader, but came across these infographics elsewhere)
Frankly, folks in YOUR income range aren’t doing so well either, compared to that tippy-top 1%, although the top 20% isn’t suffering nearly as much as the other 80%.
and from the peanut gallery i am grandfathered in from back in the day,before u were here. Oh you know 2 years ago when i puked out my equity portfolio 3/10ths of a percent off the high print, sold all my RE when everyone said hold and rent it, or i was a tool for loweeing my sale price every week til i found a buyer, and just a few months after the bottom when i went from an extreme global bear to saying brasil looks solid as a rock and would be the place things are going to happen… Want to tell me the country with the worlds best performing market and economy since then? What an uninformed young fool i must be!!!
“As for the comments about people being underwater, there are entire states where everyone is.”
This is exaggerated, but not by much. What is it in Nevada now? It’s basically 60% or more of those with mortgages, isn’t it?
The food stamp situation is even worse. In 4 states, 20% of the population is on them.
Clio:
Every single city in the Case Shiller index is off their peak. Even best performing Dallas is 9.4% off their peak, and worst performing Las Vegas is 57.6% (Phoenix is 54.7% off peak). Chicago is 30% off peak.
Phoenix, Atlanta, Las Vegas and Cleveland are very close to 2000 nominal pricing, with Detroit 35% below even that.
Chicago, Minneapolis & Charlotte are next in line, with pricing only 14-18% above 2000 levels and trending lower.
You constantly try to impact expectations with all your fluff talk on here, but honestly you don’t have a wide enough audience and fluff talk isn’t as much of a factor anymore as lenders actually care about being paid back these days.
last i saw in Nevada it was 60 percent, excuse me for taking some poetic license. Lol.
Que lastima!
wicker… Hilarious since i didnt even know what that meant and never heard that word before. I am linguistically challenged and just not lovin the learn portuguese thing. People here would say tristeza.
And in fairness as far as prognosticating goes i have to admit i pulled all my buy orders at 680 and when spx broke below 680 i thought the world was over and bought nothing down there. Took me 3 months to get a grip i was so shaken.
Comprei nada, que tristeza! …. See wicker
abracos pra tudo… Off to lunch.
ze: I’ve got your typical grew up in midwest amount of Spanish, which is just enough to screw up my Portuguese lessons. I’ll probably be in Sao Paulo and Rio in April for a week or two so I’m trying to pick up enough to not be totally useless on my own.
“This is exaggerated, but not by much. What is it in Nevada now? It’s basically 60% or more of those with mortgages, isn’t it?”
In Clark County, it’s 70%:
http://www.lvrj.com/business/las-vegas-existing-home-sales-fall-median-price-at-115-000-116861648.html
You can get a hotel room in Vegas for $15/night these days. Okay I admit it’s the El Cortez but still..
Clio: Wow, that house’s backyard shares a property line with I-88. I can’t understand why someone would prefer more square footage like that, rather than a better location.
“I don’t know, Sabrina – I know that I am a little bit irritated today because I lost out on this excellent foreclosure”
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Oak-Brook/17-Tuscan-Ct-60523/home/21734112
you mean… “The Reagan” is right in your backyard
But if I had unlimited funds, I would have fun finishing up that place by myself.
also for a good laugh, click the street view for that listing… hahaha
thats what I call curb appeal
Oak brook is a joke and so are the people who live there. enough said end of this discussion. please pay sabrina $5 for each mention of Oak Brook henceforth
word up groove
“If even me and Peter Schiff are buying (strictly for utilitarian rather than investment purposes), you can jump in the pool, too.”
PermaBear–you can add Nouriel Roubini to that list, too, since he just purchased a NYC condo: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-17/nouriel-roubini-purchases-5-5-million-condo-in-east-village-of-manhattan.html
Funny….some of the most prominent bears on the housing market are now buying. Doesn’t seem to get much attention.
Reminds me of how George Soros called gold “the ultimate bubble” and then proceeded to increase holdings of the precious metal.