Market Conditions: Chicago July Home Sales Fall 5.7% While Median Price Continues to Rise

Astor palm trees August 2017

The Illinois Association of Realtors is out with the July sales numbers. It’s more of the same. Low inventory and high prices appear to depressing housing sales.

The city of Chicago saw a 5.7 percent year-over-year home sales decline in July 2017 with 2,621 sales, down from 2,780 in July 2016. The median price of a home in the city of Chicago in July 2017 was $301,000, up 3.8 percent compared to July 2016 when it was $290,000.

Here’s the July data since 1997 (thanks, once again, to G for the historic info):

  • 1997: 1,694
  • 1998: 2,139
  • 1999: 2,186
  • 2000: 2,013
  • 2001: 2,410
  • 2002: 2,661
  • 2003: 3,105
  • 2004: 3,429
  • 2005: 3,487
  • 2006: 3,088
  • 2007: 2,819
  • 2008: 2,200
  • 2009: 2,040
  • 2010: 1,631
  • 2011: 1,666
  • 2012: 2,088
  • 2013: 2,902
  • 2014: 2,725
  • 2015: 3,082
  • 2016: 2,780
  • 2017: 2,621

“We’re in a market where even the first-time homebuyers are sophisticated and educated, and they are willing to seek out the most appropriate home for their financial situation, rather than make a rash or imprudent decision,” said Matt Silver, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and partner at Urban Real Estate. “Our continued decline in the days on the market until a sale reflects the fact that properties priced appropriately are selling rapidly. In Chicago, inventory isn’t as restricted in certain price ranges; there continues to be plenty of opportunity at different price points, particularly for move-up buyers.”

Average market time dropped again statewide to 47 days from 53 a year ago.

The mortgage rates don’t remain a factor even though they’re marginally higher than a year ago. The average 30-year mortgage was 3.97% in July compared to 3.44% a year ago and 3.9% in June.

“The concerns this month center on the continuing low inventory rates and the potential dampening of demand caused by real income growth failing to keep pace with rising house prices” said Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) at the University of Illinois. “Housing affordability is once again becoming a concern, especially for those seeking to enter the housing market.”

In Chicago, it seemed like there was a definite market slowdown in July and now, again, in August. The urgency appears gone and many listings aren’t selling as quickly, even in the “affordable” price point under $300,000.

Is the first time buyer priced out in many cities and neighborhoods?

What are the implications on a housing market when rates are still near record lows?

Illinois home prices show solid gain in July; Sales decline [Illinois Association of Realtors, Press Release, August 24, 2017]

 

 

400 Responses to “Market Conditions: Chicago July Home Sales Fall 5.7% While Median Price Continues to Rise”

  1. “The urgency appears gone and many listings aren’t selling as quickly”

    I wouldn’t say that. Those are record low market times.

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  2. I’m seeing more price cuts than ever in the Near north side… but the big issue that people are missing is the massive tax increases city and state wide that will eventually put a damper on additional housing appreciation

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  3. “I’m seeing more price cuts than ever in the Near north side… but the big issue that people are missing is the massive tax increases city and state wide that will eventually put a damper on additional housing appreciation.”

    In the short run – yes. In the long run, tax increases will be shifted to the renters in form of an increased rent. We already see it in increasing rent prices. Even with massive tax increases, buying still makes sense for many people in comparison with renting.

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  4. I wish the city would start charging tax on rent. It taxes everything else. Why not tax rent too? Property owners shouldn’t have to bear so much of the burden.

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  5. Property taxes are effectively passed onto renters in terms of higher rents – or the value of rental properties goes down. Either way, over the long term the market will ensure rent/ buy parity, though there will be discrepancies in the short run.

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  6. My friends who rent have had no where near the increases I have had even though they are renting nice places. I was irritated when a friend complained recently that his rent went up $40/month. My mortgage/tax payment has gone up about $150 a month so far, with more increases to come.

    I think there should be a tax on renters even though the property owners are also paying taxes on their properties. We pay sales tax even though our incomes are already taxed. Why not have renters contribute more too?

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  7. property taxes on rentals are higher (or should be barring a low assessed value) than on owned properties due to the homeowner’s exemption

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  8. That’s only like a $500 impact.

    Jenny, if you are a renter who has been in place for several years you are often unlikely to see large rent increases. We see this all the time. Landlords are afraid to raise the rent on tenants they are happy with. But if those same tenants try to find a comparable place in the market now they often will find themselves paying substantially more.

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  9. And if you taxed rent you’d effectively be collecting double tax on the same property.

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  10. When you rent other things, you still have to pay taxes on them, such as when you rent or lease a car.

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  11. Vehicles are taxed every time they are sold… what a scam!

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  12. “When you rent other things, you still have to pay taxes on them, such as when you rent or lease a car.”

    maybe we should just figure out a way to charge people for the services they use and get rid of taxes!

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  13. “When you rent other things, you still have to pay taxes on them, such as when you rent or lease a car.”

    Landlords get taxed on rental income, though I realize there are ways to minimize this, which would potentially get passed through in rental rates. You don’t get taxed for the implicit rent you are paying yourself. So you’re making out okay.

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  14. Ime landlords owning 5+ unit buildings pay much higher per unit RE taxes in Cook Cty vs condo owners of similar units even before considering homeowner exemptions.

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  15. “When you rent other things, you still have to pay taxes on them, such as when you rent or lease a car.”

    I don’t know how short term rentals work but I do know that when you lease a car the tax you are paying is the effective sales tax and that makes sense because you are essentially buying a car, financing it through a lease.

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  16. My landlord tried to raise rent by $100 a month. I told them to go ‘eat s___’ and was later offered the same price as last year. The downtown rental market is being flooded with new units that help keep rent increases limited.

    Also, just announced today with the state education bill, the city will raise property taxes another $170 million for 2017 tax bills. Gotta love Madigan and the corrupt machine that is keeping property appreciation noticeably lower than the rest of large cities nationwide.

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  17. Someone got stabbed 70 times in my building and units are still selling in a day or so for $350K 900sqft corner units (and w/ $700 HOA’s). I thought more people would be renting with decent deals to be had with 4500 new luxury units in RN coming on each year, but unfortunately I may have to wait another year to not get crushed on a deal.

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  18. “Also, just announced today with the state education bill, the city will raise property taxes another $170 million for 2017 tax bills. Gotta love Madigan and the corrupt machine that is keeping property appreciation noticeably lower than the rest of large cities nationwide.”

    I guess Chicago really is going to become a city of the very poor and the very rich. I cannot afford to give the city even more money for services I have never used and never will use. Let the stupid schools burn. They can live on a budget like everyone else in this world.

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  19. Jenny, 95% of the time when I read your comments, I say welcome to the Republican party. Not the national party, but the IL Republican party. Gov. Rauner wanted to allow parents to use some of their tax money – regardless of whether it was paid directly through real estate taxes or indirectly through rent – to attend private schools, so as to avoid the horrible public school system. Just like you were able to avoid CPS and instead attended a private school. It failed because too few Democrats voted for it.

    Instead our Democrat legislature in it’s infinite wisdom gave us this:

    “Under the legislation, the Chicago Board of Education would be allowed to raise property taxes by an additional $120 million, Democratic legislators said. Cook County Clerk David Orr’s office, however, put that figure at closer to $163 million. The new money would go into the Chicago Teachers’ Pension Fund.”

    Think about that for a second… Property taxes are going up. Not to get better schools, but rather, to pay for lavish pensions to teachers who teach at horrible under preforming public schools.

    Yes, some (R) voted for the bill, whereas for years Madigan has refused to compromise on anything; he at least has allowed some compromise here, and granted Rauner didn’t get much, but he got something, which is great, considering both house have almost a supermajority of (D).

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  20. And to add injury to insult:

    “The Chicago Public Schools on Monday unveiled its new curriculum to teach all eighth-graders and high school sophomores about the decades-old torture and brutality by disgraced former Chicago police Cmdr. Jon Burge and detectives who worked under him.”

    So now the teachers get better funded lavish pensions; and they get to teach students, not once, but TWICE, about how bad the police are.

    You would think there are more pressing issues to worry about in CPS:

    “CPS reading scores dip; barely 1 in 4 read at grade level”

    Reading scores dipped slightly for Chicago Public Schools students in 2016 in a district where, state tests showed, barely one in four students could read at grade level.

    http://chicago.suntimes.com/news/cps-reading-scores-dip-barely-1-in-4-read-at-grade-level/

    So students in CPS can’t read, but, they learn in two different grades, about bad Burge the rogue cop from 40 years ago. And your tax dollars pay for it. Gotta love these ridiculously liberal cities.

    And we wonder why Chicago’s population is lower today than it was in 1920.

    Enjoy your higher taxes in Chicago!!!

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  21. “So students in CPS can’t read, but, they learn in two different grades, about bad Burge the rogue cop from 40 years ago. And your tax dollars pay for it. Gotta love these ridiculously liberal cities.
    And we wonder why Chicago’s population is lower today than it was in 1920.
    Enjoy your higher taxes in Chicago!!!”

    Got to agree with HD here…

    Have a co-worker ( not a doc, not that it matters ) that sends kids to CPS – in a good district. It’s incredible just how far behind / slow they are compared to kids in suburban schools, or even where I was at , at that age. The CPS school system is shameful.

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  22. “Have a co-worker ( not a doc, not that it matters ) that sends kids to CPS – in a good district. It’s incredible just how far behind / slow they are compared to kids in suburban schools, or even where I was at , at that age. The CPS school system is shameful.”

    It depends. Is your kid smart enough to get into one of the top 6 or so magnet high schools? If they are- then they are getting the BEST education in the entire country. They will learn Chinese, Arabic and get into whatever college they want anywhere in the world.

    Of course, it’s rolling the dice whether or not your child can get in there. If they’re not up to snuff, then, yeah, your choices are a lot more limited. You can solve that problem by moving to one of the suburbs that has a “good” high school where your child has to be let in as long as you live in the boundaries.

    Will they get a top tier education at those high schools? Most likely- yes. As many of those are rich, they’ll be exposed to a lot of different course work, foreign languages etc.

    Anyone here who thinks all of CPS sucks has no clue what is going on out there in smaller town America. Go check out the high schools out past Sugar Grove or downstate in towns where there are just 300 kids in the high school. They’re not even learning foreign languages there. It’s very, very tough for them to compete with city/suburb students.

    And here are three young women defying the odds who graduated from Lindblom Math & Science Academy and just started their freshmen year at Harvard, Stanford and MIT. Against ALL odds.

    Shameful?

    No.

    http://chicago.suntimes.com/news/lindblom-grads-heading-to-harvard-stanford-mit/

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  23. “Think about that for a second… Property taxes are going up. Not to get better schools, but rather, to pay for lavish pensions to teachers who teach at horrible under preforming public schools.”

    It’s not going to “lavish” pensions. It’s going to shore up the system that is massively underfunded thanks to the incompetence of the local government, including Mayor Daley, for 20+ years. Yes, they underpaid to fund the pensions.

    Think you’re safe in the “suburbs” HD? I’m laughing my ass off at your gloating.

    The problem is the same, if not WORSE, in many suburban districts. Some of those are funded only to like 30% and will massively have to raise property taxes to pay for those same pensions.

    We’re all gonna pay. You can leave the state (just don’t go to New Jersey or California, both of which tax even more). Or you can go to Florida, where the schools SUCK. But hey- at least the taxes are lower.

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  24. “Of course, it’s rolling the dice whether or not your child can get in there. ”

    As discussed in previous posts, there’s an element, unquantifiable at this time, of ‘pay to play’ and ‘who do you know?’ with CPS admissions, despite the protestations of some posters here.

    “It’s not going to “lavish” pensions. It’s going to shore up the system that is massively underfunded thanks to the incompetence of the local government, including Mayor Daley, for 20+ years. ”

    It’s only underfunded because its so lavish. 40% of teachers retire before age 60; the average teacher takes home a pension of $73,000 a year – far more than I’ll get from SS.

    Suburbs aren’t much better, you’re right, but at least I”m getting more for my money.

    The other thing here is common core. Whereas before kids would learn something, now they learn next to nothing. It’s been a disaster. Test scores keep dropping statewide as a result of common core. you’ll see how awful and terrible common core is. I get confused with it and I’m an adult. They need to get rid of CC.

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  25. “Enjoy your higher taxes in Chicago!!!”

    You know, we totally get the fact that as city homeowners we’ll have to pick up tab for the beyond greedy, reckless, corrupt, and inept unions. Thank you for the kind reminder that my property taxes are about to rise yet again.

    But something tells me that in the near future, there will be a lowering of the can’t-get-any-higher property taxes and the implementation of a city income tax, a tax that will be shared with the thousands of suburbanites who find the city a perfectly acceptable place to make their money, but never good enough for anything else but needless criticism from the panic room in their split level ranch. Then again, what was that low-low tax/government, big house for little money, Republican god love’n land-o-future paradise you were going all tent revival on here just a short couple of months ago? Houston wasn’t it?

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  26. Riz, CPS schools perform better than state schools on average when comparing similar demographic groups. A big study was released about a month ago looking at this. Lemmings move to the suburbs.

    My kids school is as good as any suburban school in the state. Lots of misinformation out there.out

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  27. “It’s incredible just how far behind / slow they are compared to kids in suburban schools”

    1. You have ZERO perspective to conclude that. That’s not even anecdata, it’s just anecdote. I expect more from someone with science degrees.
    2. “or even where I was at , at that age” Yes, you are totally average. Thanks for reminding us with that sloppy “reasoning”.
    3. Obv. your co-worker’s kids are not at one of the top 2-3 dozen CPS elem. Prob not at one of the top 50-ish.

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  28. “three young women defying the odds” (think that sells them short, but whatever)

    Better article here:

    https://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20170511/englewood/lindbloms-dream-students-headed-for-harvard-mit-stanford

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  29. “The problem is the same, if not WORSE, in many suburban districts. Some of those are funded only to like 30% and will massively have to raise property taxes to pay for those same pensions.”

    Um, no. Not yet at least. Because the State funds 100% of the TRS, which is the pension fund that covers every public school teacher in the state *except* CPS.

    Cost shift is likely coming, and that will hurt, but it’s not here *yet*.

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  30. Yeah I love it… teach kids how terrible the police are when we got awful scores in like 90% of the CPS schools, and insane drop out rates as well… but hey the police are the bad guys here… oh yeah and raise our taxes for people that aren’t working or probably even living here anymore… thanks dicks! And you wonder why working folks are leaving

    what in the fuck, I swear people are taking crazy pills in this state

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  31. “teach kids how terrible the police are”

    Yes, that’s exactly what any discussion of Burge would distill down to. Just like every reference in school to Germans is solely about WWII.

    Because everyone (except you, Sonies) lives down to the basest stereotype one could ascribe to them.

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  32. “Is your kid smart enough to get into one of the top 6 or so magnet high schools? If they are- then they are getting the BEST education in the entire country. They will learn Chinese, Arabic and get into whatever college they want anywhere in the world.”

    Really, if my kid gets in they *will* get into a CHYMPS school?

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  33. “Have a co-worker ( not a doc, not that it matters ) that sends kids to CPS – in a good district. It’s incredible just how far behind / slow they are compared to kids in suburban schools, or even where I was at , at that age. The CPS school system is shameful.”

    My coworker moved from Chicago, where his daughter was at Bell, to Highland Park because the education there once the kid is past the primary grades is abysmal. If that’s a top school, I can’t imagine what the others are like. His kid was far behind the kids at the suburban school and struggled her first year there.

    “Reading scores dipped slightly for Chicago Public Schools students in 2016 in a district where, state tests showed, barely one in four students could read at grade level.”

    I’m not sure if this is the fault of the schools. If parents don’t value reading and education, then very few kids will value it. My parents taught me how to read and our house was filled with books. I don’t think it’s wise for parents to leave the teaching of such a basic skill up to the government.

    “It’s only underfunded because its so lavish. 40% of teachers retire before age 60; the average teacher takes home a pension of $73,000 a year – far more than I’ll get from SS.”

    Exactly. I’m sick of paying for their pensions. I am never going to get a pension, so why should I pay for theirs? I’m also sick of the trope that teachers have such a difficult job and that they should be lauded for going into teaching. I’m tired of hearing the complaints that they have to buy supplies for their students. We all have job related expenses. Get over it. Any job where you get an entire summer off and don’t even have to work a full 8 hour day is infinitely easier than working a real 40+ hour a week job.

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  34. “if my kid gets in they *will* get into a CHYMPS school?”

    If s/he gets in on merit, instead of thru clout, since that amounts to about 10-15 kids, then yes.

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  35. You’re right Anon(tfo), discussions about Germans in school are more than about WWII. They also talk about WWI. And then a little bit about that wall around West Berlin and the heroics of the airlifts. But that’s about all we learn about Germany, unless you take some specialized histories about the franco-prussian wars and such, but certainly they’re not teaching this in CPS.

    As for the anti-police creed from the mandatory Burge education…yeah, I think it’s pretty transparent all around why they are doing that. I’m hardly a pro-police guy, but I see little value in teaching not once, but twice, the 40 year old history of a rogue cop. It’s akin to history classes in the south with books calling the civil war “The War of Northern Aggression”. Except in Chicago, they may as well call it “CPD’s 50 year legacy of Burge still visible in police brutality today. Presented by BLM.” It’s political, it’s biased, and it’s designed as indoctrination, not education.

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  36. “Exactly. I’m sick of paying for their pensions. I am never going to get a pension, so why should I pay for theirs? I’m also sick of the trope that teachers have such a difficult job and that they should be lauded for going into teaching. I’m tired of hearing the complaints that they have to buy supplies for their students. We all have job related expenses. Get over it. Any job where you get an entire summer off and don’t even have to work a full 8 hour day is infinitely easier than working a real 40+ hour a week job.”

    Those who can’t do, teach. And now they teach common core, with picture graphs, word charts, and number triangles.

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  37. “But something tells me that in the near future, there will be a lowering of the can’t-get-any-higher property taxes and the implementation of a city income tax, a tax that will be shared with the thousands of suburbanites who find the city a perfectly acceptable place to make their money, but never good enough for anything else but needless criticism from the panic room in their split level ranch. ”

    the flight from that will be epic, that’s a fucking terrible idea

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  38. anon(tfo),

    individual kids perform differently in CPS and while ALL kids are not behind compared to suburban kids, there certainly is the perception that it is so. And in this case, perception may as well be reality, because people have been leaving for generations. I’ve told the story here my grandmother left old irving park in 1962 and St. Viator’s elementary for the suburbs. Do you know why? Chicago Public Schools sucked back then too, and 55 years later, people still think the same thing.

    as for the article where CPS (barely) outperforms suburban school districts when factored for demographics isn’t saying much. I read that article a few months back too. The schools in CPS are awful, and some suburban schools suck even more.

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  39. “My coworker moved from Chicago, where his daughter was at Bell, to Highland Park because the education there once the kid is past the primary grades is abysmal. If that’s a top school, I can’t imagine what the others are like. His kid was far behind the kids at the suburban school and struggled her first year there.”

    See, riz, jenny at least has anecdata–one data point, the same datum every time–to base her condemnation of all of CPS.

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  40. “there certainly is the perception that it is so.”

    Yes, you, jenny and riz have that perception. With exactly zero combined experience with kids in CPS.

    Yes, the bottom 30-50% of kids in CPS attend questionable schools. Exactly none of them would be going to top 10 suburban districts, if they moved.

    As Carville might have said: It’s about the poverty, stupid.

    I love your absurdly leftist belief that it’s the school’s failure that the kids fail. You’d be ok with your precious KCSD96 taking in 1,000 kids being bused in from the west side? And those teachers would be able to turn it all around bc they aren’t CTU?

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  41. To anon’s point…I suspect it has a lot more to do with the students than the school. Look at this data that used to be available (I haven’t seen it updated last I looked). Three student factors explain a ton of test score differences. There is enough fodder in here for people at both ends of the political spectrum. http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2015/06/what-explains-chicago-public-schools-test-scores/

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  42. “Yes, you, jenny and riz have that perception. With exactly zero combined experience with kids in CPS.”

    This. I think anon and tone are the only ones here who have kids in CPS, right? HD – you get all defensive when city dwellers rag on the suburbs, claiming we don’t know how great it is out there. Turn the other cheek.

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  43. “what in the fuck, I swear people are taking crazy pills in this state”

    Native Chicagoans are some of the most agitated, aggressive, cynical people I’ve ever met. These are the types of people who fight you merging into stop n go traffic as if that 18 feet of space is all they have left in the world and will kill you over it. They are dangerous empty voids of negativity who have for generations voted for their own abuse by their masters and thankfully they are pretty much dying off or moved away. This city will be much better off importing new blood but it’s going to take a while.

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  44. well said marko, I couldn’t agree more

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  45. A lot of really bad information about CPS here. There are literally dozens of neighborhood CPS schools that perform as good or better as top suburban schools when comparing similar demographics.

    Jenny, at Bell 98% of students perform above the national average in reading and 96% in math on the NWEA test. 70% of Bell students meet or exceed the PARRC test. A top Highland Park grade school has 71% meeting or exceeding. And you get to double your RE tax bill for that huge difference!

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  46. Get over it. Any job where you get an entire summer off and don’t even have to work a full 8 hour day is infinitely easier than working a real 40+ hour a week job.

    If compensation were determined by how “hard” people worked, I, and many others commenting on this blog from the comfort of our cushy offices, would end up being very disappointed. Very, very disappointed.

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  47. No need to get your knickers in a bunch everyone.

    Yes, that was totally anecdotal. I was just relaying that In my personal experience I thought that my co-workers kids weren’t as ‘up to par’ as I expected for the school district they are in. It’s Burley, by the way.

    And when I related to myself, was just stating that I was also a student once upon a time at a now defunct CPS school.

    But yeah, maybe my coworkers kids are dumb, I don’t know.

    You can probably compare CPS schools to other state schools, but can you in all honesty put them up against new trier, naperville, hinsdale central, etc?

    And I’m not just talking about the top 10. 90% of CPS school students aren’t at these top schools.

    Wasn’t it just a few years ago that the department of education just said 80% of 8th graders can’t even proficiently READ? come on guys.

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  48. “Jenny, at Bell 98% of students perform above the national average in reading and 96% in math on the NWEA test. 70% of Bell students meet or exceed the PARRC test. A top Highland Park grade school has 71% meeting or exceeding. And you get to double your RE tax bill for that huge difference!”

    That’s incredible to be honest. But again, what percentage of chicago kids have the privilege of going to Bell?

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  49. Riz, are Naperville and Hinsdale schools 84% low income>

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  50. Can a low income family afford to live in Naperville or Highland Park?

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  51. PS – i think jenny said the education past the primary years when comparing Bell to Highland Park. There are quite a few good elementary schools..but aside from the (admittedly amazing ) magnet schools – good public high schools in chicago are almost non existent.

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  52. You got me there tone. I think it’s something like 15% for naperville.

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  53. “Get over it. Any job where you get an entire summer off and don’t even have to work a full 8 hour day is infinitely easier than working a real 40+ hour a week job.”

    The boots of the ground teachers are typically not the issue, it’s the army of administrators, the bloat and waste on contracts for just about everything else that is. I taught at a community college as an adjunct for a few semesters a technical night course and it was soul crushingly boring, i couldn’t imagine how boring teaching must be and dealing with the issues the kids bring everyday.

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  54. Many of the poorest kids live in such stressful situations that learning is almost impossible. Throwing money at these schools isn’t going to help the home lives of these kids.

    I still don’t understand and don’t think I will ever understand why people choose to have kids that they can’t afford. Wait until your late 20s to have your first kid and it’s highly unlikely that you will remain impoverished. It seems cruel to me that these parents have children who are condemned to horrible neighborhoods and family situations when inexpensive birth control is available.

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  55. Schools reflect the communities they serve. The parents and students are what make schools great, not the teachers. Good schools are found in areas where you have a high concentration of parents who value education and create an environment in which education is valued.

    No amount of money, resources, and fancy buildings can fix cultures and social norms that are anti-intellectual.

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  56. Regarding schools, one thing I’ve noticed in looking at real estate in various cities when considering relocating is that urban high schools seem to consistently suck. It always seems like urban neighborhoods that are popular with professionals will have good elementary schools and middle schools, but then the high schools just fall off the deep end. My assumption is that the high schools have to pull students from a wider geography and thus they are getting a lot of mediocre students / families.

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  57. “jenny said the education past the primary years when comparing Bell to Highland Park”

    She meant 5-8.

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  58. “And I’m not just talking about the top 10. 90% of CPS school students aren’t at these top schools.”

    And 90% of the suburban kids aren’t at NT, Hinsdale, Naper.

    50% of all kids in the state are “low income”. The “best” suburban schools are:

    Stevenson–5%
    New Trier–3%
    Hinsdale Central–6%
    Naperville USD–14%

    Chicago is–as noted–84%. When you’re talking about those suburban HS, you ARE talking about the top 10%. So, comparing them to the SEHS, plus a couple of other CPS HS programs, is appropriate. And even then, the CPS schools have *way* more ‘low income’ kids.

    I’ve pointed it out in some form somewhere before, but Lane Tech, alone, has more low income kids than those 5 HS combined.

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  59. “Yes, that was totally anecdotal. I was just relaying that In my personal experience I thought that my co-workers kids weren’t as ‘up to par’ as I expected for the school district they are in. It’s Burley, by the way.”

    I’m sure burley is above some good burb elems.

    “But yeah, maybe my coworkers kids are dumb, I don’t know.”

    Mostly likely that your coworkers are dumb at being parents or that you’re dumb at assessing kids of coworkers.

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  60. Burley is in the 97th percentile in reading and 95% percentile in Math on NWEA MAP.

    73% of all Burley students meet or exceed PARCC. Higher than Highland Park for half the RE bill!

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  61. Rob on August 28th, 2017 at 4:33 pm

    Someone got stabbed 70 times in my building and units are still selling in a day or so for $350K (and w/ $700 HOA’s). I thought more people would be renting with decent deals to be had with 4500 new luxury units in RN coming on each year, but unfortunately I may have to wait another year to not get crushed on a deal.”

    Is that a good price for a 900sqft corner unit?

    Rents aren’t decreasing even with the added supply. 2016 saw record absorption downtown and the first two quarters have been as strong or stronger so far this year.

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  62. “73% of all Burley students meet or exceed PARCC. Higher than Highland Park for half the RE bill!”

    Burley and most CPS “Elementary” schools are K-8th. Most suburban schools are K-5. The participation rate for PARCC is lower at Burley than at some top suburban schools. Highland Park has 5, K-5 schools and the combined population dwarfs the three “Bs” combined including there 6-8th graders (Blaine, Burley, Bell). Highland Park isn’t even a “best of the best” school system or area. So, the comparison isn’t very enlightening.

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  63. Why are we even comparing with Highland Park. If you are deciging between a Burley Single Family Home and the suburbs, I don’t see Highland Park on the map. Winnetka, Hinsdale usually tops the list in that price range.

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  64. We had sales in our townhouse complex this year out of 60, a record. The new owners all seem to be childless gays or landlord investors. The school aged parents and older boomers are splitting enmasse, this is not going to end well for Chicago, they better get this shit straightened out fast because white flight is back or at least a new version of it, maybe upper middle class tax payer flight.

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  65. “8 sales” out of 60

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  66. Lookingtobuy, jenny said a co worker moved to Highland Park. That’s why I looked at it.

    BTW, Hinsdale Elementary schools have 69% of students meeting or exceeding PARCC.

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  67. Oh, and Winnetka Elementaries have 63% of students meeting or exceeding PARCC.

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  68. i will not allow my children to take the parcc tests. F common core.

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  69. a better comparison would be old irving park vs mt prospect. or logan square vs. orland park. or wicker park vs glenview. or old town vs park ridge. those seem to be the comparisons the significant majority of northside CPS parents. Bell vs Hinsalde is such a small minority of buyers. it’s the average buyer moving to a middle upper middle class suburb. that’s the place to be.

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  70. “Rents aren’t decreasing even with the added supply. 2016 saw record absorption downtown and the first two quarters have been as strong or stronger so far this year.”

    This is actually wrong according to the data. Absorption rates falling. Just see Crain’s annual quarterly chart showing like 10,000 units under construction and only like 1600 actually being rented.

    Rents will remain “sticky” on the way down so it can take months/years before landlords actually lower (versus just give out 2 or 3 months of incentives.)

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  71. “It seems cruel to me that these parents have children who are condemned to horrible neighborhoods and family situations when inexpensive birth control is available.”

    Why are they “condemned to horrible neighborhoods”? They can move wherever they want which is why Chicago’s population is falling. They ARE choosing to move to the suburbs to escape the violence.

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  72. “Can a low income family afford to live in Naperville or Highland Park?”

    Of course. Go look at the amount of kids who get free breakfasts. It’s shocking to see that something like 40% of those in Oak Park are getting free breakfast.

    In Highland Park, the Highwood kids also go to those schools. Are they rich? Check it out.

    In Hinsdale, other school districts feed into there (doesn’t Burr Ridge)? You’re assuming there are NO apartments or townhouse developments in these cities which is amusing. Naperville has a population over 100,000. You think there aren’t poor people there? Lol.

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  73. “This is actually wrong according to the data. Absorption rates falling. Just see Crain’s annual quarterly chart showing like 10,000 units under construction and only like 1600 actually being rented.”

    How can they afford to keep rents low when property taxes are skyrocketing? Maybe it’s time for me to sell my place and rent.

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  74. Here is the Crain’s article on apartment supply and demand: http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20170828/CRED02/170829896/for-downtown-apartment-landlords-flat-is-good-heres-why

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  75. Sabrina, the Crains article said that last year was a record for apartment absorption and this year is on pact to beat last year.

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  76. “i will not allow my children to take the parcc tests. F common core.”

    In my experience at CPS, the kids that don’t take PARCC are from wealthy white families that feel kids are over tested and that tests are racist.

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  77. Sabrina, in Oak Park 56% of non low income students meet or exceed PARCC. And Oak Park schools overall are only 18% low income, not 40%.

    What are RE taxes in Oak Park?

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  78. “In my experience at CPS, the kids that don’t take PARCC are from wealthy white families that feel kids are over tested and that tests are racist.”

    I stated my reasons above. I believe common core is BS and making our kids dumber.

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-school-report-card-2016-met-20161031-story.html

    I see my kid’s elementary school homework all based on the common core standard. It’s idiotic, it’s difficult for me to understand what they want me to do to. They have kids coloring boxes, drawing tennis rackets, and doing number charts. It’s not math. It’s craziness. I can barely help her. She has difficult understanding basic numbers concepts because everything is all shaded by picture graphs and coloring. I grew up doing multiplication tables in elementary schools and I can do that stuff today in my head, and I’m considered ‘bad’ at math. My kid isn’t even understanding the basic math concepts because the homework and teaching is so obtuse, so roundabout, so ridiculous, that it is literally making our kids dumber. I’m going to start paying for tutoring on my own for my kids specifically so they learn how to make change without having to draw a number graph that adds 100’s and minuses 10’s and so forth. And yet the state is doubling down on abysmal test results. They are throwing away entire classes of children with their failed experiments. This is why I hate educators. My ultra-liberal bleeding heart aunt thinks that common core teaching is the greatest thing since sliced bread, which other further confirms how messed up common core really is.

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  79. Here is a two minute video of a kid doing common core addition vs. regular addition. The common core math is crazy and takes 1:20 seconds to complete a simple math problem; the regular math problem takes 15 seconds. It’s a complete joke, this is what they are teaching kids in your schools, no wonder they aren’t learning at all:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIz3vASG40g

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  80. What in the fuck is that girl doing in the first part of that video… how confusing!

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  81. “This is why I hate educators.”

    Um, *every* one of my kids teachers has been dismissive of CC math.

    It’s not “educators”, it’s “education policy mavens”. The “Common Core Initiative” was brought to us all by the National Governors Association–Politicians, NOT educators (yeah, yeah, they worked with “educators”–which included a bunch of Gates Foundation funded folks–the Gates Foundation is one of the boogeymen of Teacher’s Unions, so it would seem that HD agrees with Karen Lewis about something).

    Having national standards are a good thing. The standards set out in Common Core *might* be great, but I dunno. The implementation of the Common Core–as manifested thru the PARCC tests, and the curricula developed to teach to the PARCC tests–is *horrible*.

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  82. “Naperville has a population over 100,000. You think there aren’t poor people there? Lol.”

    Yeah, 14% of the kids are ‘low income’. The same as Bell, and *lower* than Lincoln Elementary. So Naperville–as a district–should be compared to Lincoln Park and North Center, and nothing else in the city.

    Lowest % at a CPS HS? Payton, at 31%. Northside is 41%. OPRF is 20%. Naper Central is 11%, North is 15%.

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  83. Great point anon, Lincoln Elementary has 80% of all students meeting and exceeding PARCC. It’s students are in the 99% in reading and 97% in Math nationally according to NWEA MAP tests.

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  84. anon(tfo), you and your nuance. How am I supposed to get anonymous internet posters all riled up about CC with nuance!!!

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  85. “How am I supposed to get anonymous internet posters all riled up about CC with nuance!!!”

    I just wanted to be able to point out that you, Karen Lewis and Jesse Sharkey all agree that people funded by the Gates Foundation are destroying public education.

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  86. “I just wanted to be able to point out that you, Karen Lewis and Jesse Sharkey all agree that people funded by the Gates Foundation are destroying public education.”

    Russia and the US both agreed that Nazis were bad too. The problem arise after the common enemy is gone, and Karen goes back her to greedy union ways.

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  87. I’d actually rather let her teachers teach the way they thought best, they’re the ones in the classroom every day. It’s just the difficultly to fire bad teachers, the greedy gimme gimme gimme attitude, and the typical union creedo to throw younger members under the bus in favor of older, more senior members is what makes me all riled up. And probably a lot of other things too. But at least I agree that teachers should be able to teach, as long as it’s not crazy common core stuff. I’d even be OK with some of the more liberal teaching because its good for people to see alternate points of view and come to the own decisions. But to screw up math and critical reasoning in ELA with common core is just downright shameful.

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  88. “In my experience at CPS, the kids that don’t take PARCC are from wealthy white families that feel kids are over tested and that tests are racist.”

    I would be one of those parents. I am not a fan of the tests. Teachers should be teaching kids creative problem solving, not how to pass a state run test.

    I remember some of my public school friends purposely doing as poorly as possible on the high school CPS tests as a protest. The principal of the school chewed them out because if too many kids purposely fail it ends up looking like the school is “bad.”

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  89. hd posted …” and I’m considered ‘bad’ at math..”. Based on hd’s posts imo he’s also ‘bad’ at English. So there’s hope for the poor & under-educated – they too could become ‘lincoln lawyers’? Oh no now I remember – hd who complains ‘connections’ assist some w/CPS admissions is just fine w/his firm receiving beaucoup business (never competitively bid) via its connections. Maybe CPS students should be taught the value of political connections as a case study too?

    “Russia and the US both agreed that Nazis were bad too….” And then hd and his ilk elected someone who advocates that neither Russia, Nazis nor white supremacists are as bad as people would have us believe. I sure hope hd gets his income taxes lowered when T & billionaires get theirs lowered – isn’t that the Faustian bargain T’s repub voters struck?

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  90. Nice try, SB, but in that analogy, I’m the US, Karen is the Russian (she is basically a communist), and the Nazis are Bill Gates Foundation.

    All of us agree Nazis (Bill Gates Foundation) are bad. And neither the US or Russia are Nazis, just as neither I nor CPS Union is as bad as Bill Gates Founddation (when it comes to teaching).

    And then somehow you pull of this: “And then hd and his ilk elected someone who advocates that neither Russia, Nazis nor white supremacists are as bad as people would have us believe. ”

    ?????????????????????????????

    r u a product of CPS 2?

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  91. That common core video is really interesting. Teaching the deconstruction of basic math is going to be extremely helpful to the 1% of kids who end up taking advanced calculus and/or studying theoretical (“pure”) mathematics.

    Thinking about math that way will possibly make it easier to learn to code.

    However, the majority of kids probably would find it easier and less frustrating using the old method.

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  92. ” neither I nor CPS Union is as bad as Bill Gates Founddation ..”
    shouldn’t an attorney write “…neither I nor CPS ARE… FOUNDATION..”

    “..somehow you pull of this..” wtf does that even mean hd? Is this how BG high school taught you (where u’ve claim u attended alongside gang members & other students from very poor families)?

    Thanks for tutorial on analogies but I don’t care what you believe abt Gates Foundation. I asked whether u’re in agmt w DT re Russia, Nazis & white supremacists being basically good people w/ a handful of bad apples?

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  93. “In Highland Park, the Highwood kids also go to those schools. Are they rich? Check it out.”

    I noticed I missed this one. I did check it out. And the ‘low income’ percentage at HPHS is 15.

    North Shore SD–the k-8 district that (along with Deerfield 109 and Bannockburn 106) feeds into HPHS is all of 26%. Yes, the Highwood elem is 70% low-income, but that’s still lower than the CPS average.

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  94. “Yeah, 14% of the kids are ‘low income’. The same as Bell, and *lower* than Lincoln Elementary. So Naperville–as a district–should be compared to Lincoln Park and North Center, and nothing else in the city.”

    anon(tfo): I never said that Naperville was at Chicago levels of low income- all I said was that there WERE low income students in both Naperville and Hinsdale and every other town in the Chicagoland area.

    It’s 11% at Naperville Central? Wow. That’s way higher than I would have thought. There are 3,000 students there. So at least 300 of them are low income. Whoa. Same “number” as at Walter Payton- even though that percentage is higher. Both have about 300 low income students.

    Look at the difference in the size of the school district. My god. You’re talking 380,000 kids in Chicago schools at any given time.

    Anyone who wants to educate themselves about the schools really needs to read Savage Inequality. Yes- it’s like 25 years old now but everything he wrote about in the books STILL holds true (even his comparison of Chicago public schools like Marshall High School with New Trier.) Money DOES matter. But thankfully CPS has been building some great facilities like Walter Payton and Jones to try and even the playing field. If only we could do so with ALL the students at ALL of the schools.

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  95. “And Oak Park schools overall are only 18% low income, not 40%.”

    Tone- something like 40% get the free breakfast in Oak Park. If you look at the stats for that in all the school districts, it will blow your mind how many kids would otherwise be very hungry in school. Not what you would think.

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  96. “Money DOES matter. But thankfully CPS has been building some great facilities like Walter Payton and Jones to try and even the playing field. If only we could do so with ALL the students at ALL of the schools.”

    I don’t think it’s about the money. Every Chicago school gets the same amount of money per student yet the results vary dramatically from one school to the next. It has more to do with what Russ said above and the characteristics of the students that attend.

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  97. Sabrina, are talking about a specific school in OP? Because the district is 18% low income.

    Every student in CPS can get free breakfast and lunch, regardless of income, so that 40% in Oak Park may not mean much.

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  98. “I don’t think it’s about the money. Every Chicago school gets the same amount of money per student yet the results vary dramatically from one school to the next. It has more to do with what Russ said above and the characteristics of the students that attend.”

    This. No matter how much money you pour into a school, success is going to be largely determined by a student’s home life. If a kid coming to school has to worry about getting shot, becoming homeless, being beaten by a parent, having to be a caretaker to younger siblings or an irresponsible parent, I think it’s highly unlikely that child will succeed at a day school. Maybe if that kid was sent to a boarding school (s)he would have a chance.

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  99. “That common core video is really interesting. Teaching the deconstruction of basic math is going to be extremely helpful to the 1% of kids who end up taking advanced calculus and/or studying theoretical (“pure”) mathematics.
    Thinking about math that way will possibly make it easier to learn to code.
    However, the majority of kids probably would find it easier and less frustrating using the old method.”

    I did study *pure* maths (why the quotes?!?) and not sure learning common core as it is implemented would have been of much use. Not sure it does that much harm for the majority as they’ll be frustrated about something anyway.

    As @fo says, the way it is taught is dreadful. And doing well on tests depends as much on learning the specific way you are supposed to “understand” the concept as it does on actual understanding.

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  100. “No matter how much money you pour into a school, success is going to be largely determined by a student’s home life.”

    On the other hand, those with money think that the best schools/experiences/comforts all but gaurentee a successful future for their child. I find it amazing the lengths in which parents strive to provide the best for their children ($$) yet never sit down for nutritious nightly meals together – probably the most acient and effective ritual for building strong family cohesion and for raising decent human beings; the kinds of humans that the rest of society has to live with. But mom and dad are busy making the money to afford the best, and the kids are too busy partaking in the best. Shitty parenting has no dollar amount.

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  101. Is everyone familiar with the Word Gap study? https://www.aft.org/sites/default/files/periodicals/TheEarlyCatastrophe.pdf

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  102. “Anyone who wants to educate themselves about the schools really needs to read Savage Inequality. Yes- it’s like 25 years old now but everything he wrote about in the books STILL holds true (even his comparison of Chicago public schools like Marshall High School with New Trier.) ”

    Nonsense. Kozol is a jewish Critical Theory communist BS artist. (and you’ll never see that hypocrite call for “equality” in funding or human rights for Palestinian students.)

    The fact is that New Trier has higher IQ students from genetics, and that is the main and most significant reason they do better. It’s funny how those Alt-Left nutjobs who demand fealty to so-called “climate science” will in turn totally DENY the science of DNA and human biodiversity. Lol. The North Shore in 25 more years will be 1/3 Asian, 1/3 white, and 1/3 Jewish with a smattering of SE Asians (India). IQs will determine this, and you can already see it setting into place.

    A better book is by Bob Weissberg: Bad Students, Not Bad Schools (2010)

    “Schools today are filled with millions of youngsters, too many of whom struggle with the English language or simply have mediocre intellectual ability. Their lackluster performances are probably impervious to the current reform prescriptions regardless of the remedy’s ideological derivation. Making matters worse, retention of students in school is embraced as a philosophy even if it impedes the learning of other students.”

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  103. “doing well on tests depends as much on learning the specific way you are supposed to “understand” the concept as it does on actual understanding.”

    Which is (imo) the best reason to have your kids take the stupid tests–in the event that that test is in the future used to determine something important, they’ll have had practice with what the test ‘expects’.

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  104. “SE Asians (India)”

    Well, we now know that tehHof neither (1) lives in Asia, nor (2) has a globe.

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  105. “And here are three young women defying the odds who graduated from Lindblom Math & Science Academy and just started their freshmen year at Harvard, Stanford and MIT. Against ALL odds.

    Shameful?”

    Very much so. These are Affirm Action students that benefit from racism. They are taking spots away from people who DESERVE them based on achievement and merit. Most likely an Asian or white male, because (somehow) miraculously the % of Jews in Ivy League schools never seems to drop due to diversity or affirm action.

    The Asians finally got fed up with the jewish communist plans to screw them over and filed a lawsuit, something dumb white (liberals) are too cowardly to do for their own offspring.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/02/us/affirmative-action-battle-has-a-new-focus-asian-americans.html

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  106. Helmethofer, please provide your sources that show that IQ is genetic.

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  107. “I asked whether u’re in agmt w DT re Russia, Nazis & white supremacists being basically good people w/ a handful of bad apples?”

    southbound: You are a card-carrying member of the Alt-Left, a sympathizer and probably even a collaborator, or active participant in their hate. Trump is an American nationalist and the Alt-Left and fake news’ characterization of white people as “Nazis or supremacists” is a joke, nobody believes it no matter how many times you say it, or that bitch you like calls your own people: deplorables. She tried that and lost the election.

    Trump was 100% correct that there were bad apples on the Alt-Left that day in Charlottesville who came up with hate and were prepared to use violence.

    So what do you now think of the attacks on Columbus statues and Columbus Day? People like southbound are what the Bolshevik Jews called “useful idiots”, they help with anti-white bigotry, the “revolution”, etc. against their own people, and then they are discarded by their masters (Lenin/Soros) like the idiots they are.

    southbound, I have no idea how you reconcile your Alt-Left belief system, tied into Bolshevism/communism, with your alleged belief in Notre Dame, Catholicism and the Gospel of Jesus Christ. They people you are usefully idiot-collaborating with are full of hatred and are anti-Christ, anti-God, anti-Western Civ, and anti-white. You are an idiot.

    Trump is an American nationalist, not a Nazi, otherwise why would he hire so many Jews?

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  108. “Well, we now know that tehHof neither (1) lives in Asia, nor (2) has a globe.”

    I knew someone would catch that, but no edit button. Yes, I mistyped. SE Asians are Vietnamese. India is technically in Asia, and as Riz knows, when some terrorist Paki Muslim kills some random white people in England or Stockholm, they are referred to as Asians in the British press. In the USA, they call them “youths” or “teens”.

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  109. Ha ha, I love the downvotes already from the deniers and Alt-Left haters.

    The Ny Times link says:

    By most standards, Austin Jia holds an enviable position. A rising sophomore at Duke, Mr. Jia attends one of the top universities in the country, setting him up for success.

    But with his high G.P.A., nearly perfect SAT score and activities — debate team, tennis captain and state orchestra — Mr. Jia believes he should have had a fair shot at Harvard, Princeton, Columbia and the University of Pennsylvania. Those Ivy League colleges rejected him after he applied in the fall of 2015.

    It was particularly disturbing, Mr. Jia said, when classmates with lower scores than his — but who were not Asian-American, like him — were admitted to those Ivy League institutions.

    Keep on denying the truth everyone. If you can’t disprove the truth, then censor it! Lol, Liberals can’t win the arguments on merit, so they have to censor. Google (goolag) just dropped their “don’t do evil” moniker because everyone knows they’re full of it.

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  110. I think IQ has quite a bit more to do with upbringing and culture, not so much genetics. ( although there is certainly research that pinpoints a link between genetics and IQ (genetics, not race ).

    South East Asians (Indians / Pakistanis , myself included ) tend to do well in school because the culture and families strongly push the kids and demand academic success. Other Asian cultures are similar. Obviously this culture isn’t going to be widespread in the inner city – the kids there are less successful because of their environment and uprbringing, not their race.

    I’m far from bright. I worked incredibly hard and had pushy and supportive family and friends. Put me in a one parent, low income household in the inner city, no way I’d be where I am today.

    The sad truth is life isn’t fair. The inner city kids aren’t getting a fair hand, or even close.

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  111. PS, it’s not uncommon for Indian people to call themselves south or south East Asian.

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  112. “Those Ivy League colleges rejected him”

    That he ended up at Duke militates in favor of a reasonable conclusion: he was too much of a DB for Harvard, Princeton, Columbia and Penn. Which is truly exceptional, of course.

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  113. PPS –

    There actually is some decent research linking IQ to genetics and natural selection within ethnic groups – ashkenazi Jews come to mind. Super high IQ, but also super high chances of genetic disorders. Genes are adaptable within a population over time based on a multitude of factors, but it’s not nearly as simple as one “race” vs another.

    My memory of genetics is fuzzy beyond that, but it makes sense. Certain populations are far more prone to diabetes / metabolic syndrome, cardiovascular disease, Alzheimer’s, cancer, etc. Same applies to some populations being better at sports vs singing vs solving a math problem. Genetics plays SOME role – how much, and how exactly, we are still figuring out.

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  114. “all themselves south or south East Asian”

    South, I’ve heard often.

    Southeast?? Southeast Asia is, in a geographical sense as well as common Western usage, the Indochina peninsula–Burma, Thailand, Laos, Nam, Malaysia, Singapore. There are, of course, quite a number of “Indians” (and Chinese) in southeast asia, but that doesn’t make them any more “southeast asian” ethnically than the white expats in Singapore or Kuala Lumpur are. So, that statement is — truly — a first for me.

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  115. Eh anon you’re probably right, my cousins / aunt and uncles come to mind but I recall that half their family is Malaysian, different story.

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  116. “I asked whether u’re in agmt w DT re Russia, Nazis & white supremacists being basically good people w/ a handful of bad apples?”

    hd: unlike u who’s afraid to anonymously post what you believe, helmut-heil-hitler-hofer indirectly answered. hh agrees w/DT – Russia just needs a hug & then it plans to hug hh/DT back – it’s about brotherhood.

    In your opinion is Mueller’s inquiry re whether DT and/or DT’s campaign colluded w/Russian gov’t re election still just fake news? Do u still believe in santa claus? Could anyone write a more incriminating email than Jr did? Can hd can top hh re bloviating bullsh-t?

    hh I don’t remember a Gospel passage where JC advocates armed men & crazed drivers congregate w/aim to inflict harm on any who disagree w/them. Since u apparently read gospel frequently did JC promulgate inciting murderous riots for good causes like Confederacy legacy?

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  117. Ahhhh gheeeze, looks like Dan’s now shattered dream of escaping to Houston got him all pissed off today.

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  118. What is intelligence? It’s a simple question, but difficult to define. I generally associate it with the ability to think on one’s feet and the ability to creatively solve novel problems. I think some people may have a predisposition to do well at problem solving, but upbringing plays an enormous role too. I watch my friends with their kids and see them trying to teach them how to reason and solve problems, instead of just having a temper tantrum. I see other parents out in public who yell or hit their kids at the first sign of any bad behavior. I am willing to bet that in general the kids of the former will do better in life than those of the latter, regardless of any natural talents.

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  119. “There actually is some decent research linking IQ to genetics”

    I’d like to see such research. They’ve actually identified the BRCA gene but I am not aware of anyone identifying intelligence genes. And I don’t know how you would ever separate out the impact of environment from genetics.

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  120. Southbound, I’m not argue with you about Charlotteville. I’m just not going to do that. there’s so many other places to have *that* conversation, like politico, the hills, any link on Drudge, not not here. I made an analogy about russia and the nazis that related to karen lewis and the CPS and somehow you got it all twisted up.

    HH: your problem is your ridiculous anti-semetic shit you keep spewing all over, as if you don’t even know any jewish people, 99.9% of whom just live their daily life not part of some jewish conspiracy to take over the ivys, the media or the world. You start out with a decent argument and then it veers off into outerspace. it would be like if Southbound turned every conversation into some discussion about the good side of ecoterroism, which is the far, far whacko left side of the spectrum. I really just wish you would shut up because your ridiculous shit gives people like Southbound fodder to call every (R) voter an alt-right white nationist, even though your fringe views is like .001% of the party, just like southbound’s eco-terrorists are .02% of his party. Just stop, stop stop, you’re not helping.

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  121. As for inherited intelligence: for every Barron Hilton, there’s more Paris Hiltons, and intelligence will revert to the mean.

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  122. “I really just wish you would shut up because your ridiculous shit gives people like Southbound fodder to call every (R) voter an alt-right white nationist, even though your fringe views is like .001% of the party, just like southbound’s eco-terrorists are .02% of his party. Just stop, stop stop, you’re not helping.”

    Wasn’t this DT’s moral failing about Charlottesville?

    The White Supremacists/Nazis are such a small number. It’s so easy to condemn them. Same with the antifa protesters beating up people in Berkeley last week.

    When you’re a politician, especially the President, you represent EVERYONE. So why side with such a small minority? But DT sided with the White Supremacists. And he tried to weasel out of it. His body language said it all. It’s like when your 5 year old hits his sister and you make him apologize. He doesn’t want to do it but says the words even though there’s no meaning behind them.

    That’s what’s so baffling. It’s like DT’s tone deaf as a politician. Everyone thought he would move away from his base once in office and at least embrace the moderates but he has only embraced the small fringe base even more, at the detriment of the entire rest of the country, including nearly every major American city.

    You just can’t govern that way.

    8 months into this Presidency, it’s pretty clear that he’s a lame duck already. The Congress is operating without him. His own cabinet members are operating separately from him too including Tillerson and Mattis.

    But it’s never good when there is a void in the White House. There literally is NO leadership there. Our system was designed with 3 branches yet one is just missing. That’s why nothing is working in DC right now.

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  123. “But with his high G.P.A., nearly perfect SAT score and activities — debate team, tennis captain and state orchestra — Mr. Jia believes he should have had a fair shot at Harvard, Princeton, Columbia and the University of Pennsylvania. Those Ivy League colleges rejected him after he applied in the fall of 2015.”

    There are thousands of kids who apply to the Ivies with these same credentials. They can’t let them all in.

    This has ALWAYS been the case. There’s nothing new here. Are you the son/daughter of Donald Trump, an alumni of Penn? Well- they give preferences to legacies. It’s not a surprise that nearly all of DT’s kids went there. Did they “earn” their way in? Come on.

    Similarly, they’ll take the kid from the farm in Iowa with a couple of Bs versus the one with high GPA and the soccer team from New Trier. Sorry- that’s the reality and it has nothing to do with race or religion. Schools want an “interesting” class. They don’t want all upper middle class kids from cities or suburbs because, frankly, they’re mostly all the same. Same schools, same parents in the same upscale professions, grew up vacationing in the same places, hold the same views etc.

    Years ago, Georgetown’s admissions office gave a peek at how they make their decisions. For the students who had all the “right” qualifications but was from a big suburban high school, they literally said, “they will do fine at State U.” Basically, they don’t bring anything to the university. Their lives won’t change, and Georgetown won’t change, by having them there.

    It’s NOT just about test scores. Never has been. If you want your kids to get into the Ivy League, move to the Dakotas, Alaska or somewhere like that. Move to small town America. Move to a school where no child has EVER gone to an Ivy League school.

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  124. “Google (goolag) just dropped their “don’t do evil” moniker because everyone knows they’re full of it.”

    What does Google have to do with anything? If anything, the White Supremacists should be grateful to Google. Without YouTube, where would they be?

    Also, I don’t understand the Republican attacks on the big technology companies and Silicon Valley, in general. Would they prefer to use China’s Weibo instead? These are the very best of the country competing on a global scale. I’m sorry that so many Trump supporters don’t have the qualifications to work at any of these places (I think Amazon has like 10,000 job openings in Seattle right now.) But to have our President verbally attacking, on Twitter, our best companies is disturbing, at best.

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  125. “nobody believes it no matter how many times you say it, or that bitch you like calls your own people: deplorables. She tried that and lost the election.”

    Why are so many DT supporters so sexist? I mean, the intense hatred towards women is incredible. I’m assuming it comes from the top down, given that Trump has only one woman in his cabinet. But it’s really detrimental to the Republican party.

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  126. “The fact is that New Trier has higher IQ students from genetics, and that is the main and most significant reason they do better.”

    Northside College Prep has been voted one of the top 5 public high schools in the nation. I am assuming their “IQs” (whatever the hell that means) are higher than New Trier. Guess it must be their “genetics.”

    But I agree with the other commenters, that much of school success is due to family involvement. Just ask any teacher. Do the parents read to their kids? Help with the homework? Put food on the table? Not beat them? There’s so much that goes into school success.

    But school has nothing to do with “IQ.” There are plenty of dumb kids at New Trier.

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  127. hd u politician u. I don’t care about CTU or Gates. You brought up Russia & I’m concerned abt Russia, our enemy. I asked will you denounce DT if he’s found to have illegally colluded with Russia? You answered w pol’s classic misdirection, pivoting like crazy “not gonna talk abt Charlottesville here, not gonna do it”.

    Apparently so long as DT might lower your taxes a few % (while DT/his billionaire buddies get theirs cut by 33%+) u can forgive a few of DT’s ‘minor indiscretions’? Pathetic excuse of a citizen & certainly no patriot – neither u nor your idol. You deserve your roster spot on hh’s team

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  128. sabrina, he baited you and now your TDS is flaring up. he’s a troll. he always starts out with a position taken by the national review and then quickly veers into jews controlling the ivy’s

    as for trump, all you hear about in the media is the side show, but everyday behind the scenes is the real story. he’s remaking the judiciary for generations, regulations are falling and policy is being made. the media circus is just a side show to keep those who think they are paying attention distracted. most trump voters don’t regret their vote and give him a thumbs up. keep watching msnbc while the 9th circuit goes from deep blue to deep red.

    “but, but, but he is a white supremisist sympathizer! and he is a russian stooge! and he is crazy”

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  129. southbound your TDS is flaring up again. like trump has denounced extremism time and time again, i too have denounced HH and his crazy fringe shit too.

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  130. southbound, when will you denounce eco-terrorists?

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  131. “like trump has denounced extremism time and time again”

    Sorry HD. He hasn’t denounced it. He tried to put the alt-left in with the crazies running over people with their car. He refuses to put the Nazis back into the closet. That will be among his greatest failures during this presidency.

    You are a bigger man than he is HD. You’re able to denounce helmethofer and his racism and anti-Semitism.

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  132. “he’s remaking the judiciary for generations, regulations are falling and policy is being made.”

    Jesus HD. You’ve really fallen for the con! Wow.

    This is what is so incredibly sad. All of those people in the rural areas who are struggling to keep up with the global economy (and this is true in EVERY country. Look who voted for Brexit. Not those in London, Edinburgh or Manchester) need real solutions. They don’t need to be thrown off their health insurance. They don’t need to be sold a damn baseball hat with MAGA on it. My god.

    Trump is actually contemplating just pulling out of NAFTA. With nothing to replace it. Oh my fucking god. You know what that would do to the rural areas? It would literally destroy the farmers.

    When is he actually going to do something to help those who voted for him?

    Basically, he cannot. He doesn’t know how to govern! It’s so obvious. That’s the con. That he convinced everyone that it was SO EASY to be a President or even a politician. It isn’t. It takes skill. And DT doesn’t have it. He ran an organization with 29 employees that went bankrupt 4 times (or was it 6?). He’s built only 2 buildings in the entire country. He’s not even a developer. Lol. That’s the other part of the con.

    That’s what’s awful about this whole thing. True, the Democrats blew off the rural vote. They don’t need it to win nationally going forward because the cities will continue to grow in power and wealth. But at least they never promised anything.

    Trump promised them the world and has given them absolutely nothing.

    Meanwhile, farmers in Southern Illinois are hiring workers from Mexico for 4 months to work their farms because they can’t find any Americans to do it.

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  133. By the way, back to housing, all my realtor contacts are telling me that the Chicago market is DEAD. As in sloooooow.

    And this includes properties under $600,000. That was the hot spot all spring and into early summer.

    What has happened? Why have buyers suddenly turned off the “buy” switch? Mortgage rates are at 2017 lows so that’s not it.

    If you wanted that $450,000 townhouse, there are now plenty of them on the market in the GreenZone. You wouldn’t have seen that just 4 months ago. It’s something to watch in the fall market.

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  134. hd unlike u I’ll answer (do you support DT’s alliance w Russia?) -I don’t know what eco-terrorists are but I denounce all terrorists. You’ve toadied up to hh here often so don’t pretend you don’t share certain beliefs w hh.

    I agree w Sabrina – u’re chugging the dt cool-aid which is interfering w/ your ability to process rational thought. Gorsuch (new SC justice) has been an absolute enemy re protecting interests of regular people – he’ll cater to billionaires like his Colorado cabin buddy Phil Anschutz. And he’ll work to reverse Roe v Wade (the quid pro quo for his annointment (intentional mis-spelling)) but hey what does established precedent protecting free will of women mean to u or dt?

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  135. SB, I’m not going to discuss the merits of abortion with you here. I asked if you disavow eco-terrorists, the fringe element of your liberal progressive party. Instead you give a wishy washy answer that says you don’t know what eco-terrorism is: are you insinuating you’ve never heard of Animal Liberation Front (ALF),the Earth Liberation Front (ELF),Greenpeace, the Sea Shepherd Conservation Society, People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA), Earth First! I want you to disavow all of them immediately or else I will believe that you are with them, and support them and their despicable, hateful causes.

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  136. “Jesus HD. You’ve really fallen for the con! Wow. ”

    I like you too and your site too much Sabrina to engage the typical name calling and mudslinging others engage in on a regular basis over at HuffPo and Politico and The Hill. Let’s just agree to disagree and focus on issues related to real estate, which 99% of this thread was (when talking about CPS, because quite frankly, the only reason I live in St. Charles Community Unit School District 303 is the schools, which is why most parents buy in any school dist.)

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  137. hd- ironic RE story. My first real job was in RE dep’t of 100+ yr old company. Anchutz purchased a very similar co. with which we’d co-owned RE for 100+ yrs. A few months later I was asked why our jv rents was down. It turned out Co. B had new interpretation of our 100 yr agmt. They maintained our share of rent from jv shouldn’t be 50% but .5% instead. We had files full of supporting docs (including contracts, telegrams & meeting notes from 1870’s!). But facts were irrelevant to Co. B.
    Basically new owner was offended that per agmt his co. was managing a jv owning Colorado RE which now was highly valuable and he wasn’t going to honor our agmt any longer. Imo Anschutz and DT are similar scumbags. I undersdtand why dt agreed re merits of putting Anschutz’s puppet Gorsuch on SC.

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  138. hd’s channeling hh again. No need to debate anything – you either support the rule of law or you’re an anarchist imo. I’ve never heard any of those beside Greenpeace & PETA (neither of which i support)- presumably b/c I don’t watch Fox news or wherever they rile up u/dt’s base. U can believe whatever u want but to repeat I’m a rational person who denounces all terrorists & anyone who uses violence to further political goals. U’ve remained silent about Russia so it’s clear to me u’ll coninue supporting DT ignoring our laws re treason & sedition.

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  139. Back to real estate – I’ve posted my status in a few prior threads, but we’ve been looking about 8 months now since moving back to Chicago, either in the 700-900 3bd market, or 350-550 2bd high rise and or condo space. I know that’s a lot of properties. Looking in GZ as usual.

    the 2bd high rise in lake front LP and gold coast / streeterville is soft soft soft, lots of supply and plenty of price cuts, but there are then nutball listings with seller putting up a place that’s worth 500-550 for 800 and cutting prices for 18 months. What kind of agent takes a listing like that? Why do people do such nutty things for ‘let’s see what happens’ shot in the dark?

    Seeing tons of price cuts in SFH especially in bucktown and roscoe, now decent but not fancy SFH are to be had for ~900 whereas it seemed like you need to cross 1mm or 1.1+.

    Maybe people are finally realizing that taxes are no joke here, and they’re coming for your money. I’m a non psycho moderate libertarian, and the thing about the present regime of liberals/democrats is the problem with taxing other people’s money is eventually you run out of it.

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  140. I’m a bit confused. In July, the average days on the market was 34 for sales in Chicago. Inventory was down huge in July year over year. So August hit and no one is buying?

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  141. “all my realtor contacts are telling me that the Chicago market is DEAD. As in sloooooow.”

    I was wondering if I was imagining it but I prefer to look at data rather than anecdotes. I suspect closings will be down by a lot in August but it’s too soon to tell. I’m sure a lot closed yesterday and is not yet reported.

    It remains an inventory problem. It will be down again and market times are similarly down again. That’s not what I would call a slow market.

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  142. Maybe a lull short term lull?

    The Chicago area ranked second only to Colorado Springs in Attom’s study of “pre-movers,” or people who own houses but apply for a purchase mortgage or preapproval. (Refinances are not counted.) The index for Chicago was 241, and for Colorado Springs, 249. Nationwide, the index was 100, which means Chicago-area homeowners were more than twice as likely to buy a house than homeowners nationwide.

    http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20170824/CRED0701/170829949/heres-one-sign-of-a-hot-real-estate-market-ahead

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  143. Yeah, I saw that and wasn’t sure how to interpret their data. They didn’t specify if this was based on mortgage applications for properties that have gone under contract or people trying to get pre-approved. I got the impression it was the former. But then I should be seeing that in the contract activity and I’m not.

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  144. Gary, there is TONS of research linking intelligence and IQ to genetics, even specific Genes. Just do a simple google search and you’ll see plenty, even from the NIH. Again, it’s not a RACE thing, it’s a genes thing. Genes will vary even from one sibling to another.

    Not sure what BRCA has to do with anything to be honest…it’s far from the only gene identified link to a specific disease process / cancer, if that’s what you’re getting at.

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  145. “That’s what’s so baffling. It’s like DT’s tone deaf as a politician. Everyone thought he would move away from his base once in office and at least embrace the moderates but he has only embraced the small fringe base even more, at the detriment of the entire rest of the country, including nearly every major American city.”

    I suspect his goal is to make as many people angry as possible. Is he distracting from something? I don’t know yet.

    I have a friend who voted for Trump. He said he did so specifically because it would make people angry. My friend is just an angry person because he had some horrible things happen to him. These things were completely out of the norm, so I can understand his anger at the world.

    In general, I don’t understand the anger level in this country. I still assert that this is the best country in which to live and one of the few in the world where a relatively healthy person can go from having nothing to having everything.

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  146. Clearly the US is a great place, but this notion that it’s the easiest place to move up the economic ladder is not true.

    http://www.epi.org/publication/usa-lags-peer-countries-mobility/

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  147. Out of those whopping 4 countries ahead of us, which would you want to live in? The UK sucks and the other 3 are shit holes… how the fuck is Italy ahead of us? They have like 11% unemployment, and massive corruption everywhere

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  148. You read the report wrong sonies. On that list, from Denmark to Switzerland, it is easier to move up the economic laddder. I would personally would love to live in Sweden, Denmark, Germany, France or Spain.

    While they are not ahead of the US, Chile and Italy are shit holes? I would live in Italy in a heartbeat if I spoke italian and could get a job.

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  149. “Imo Anschutz and DT are similar scumbags”

    Don’t know anything about Anschutz’s business dealings (whereas DT’s shady track record is widely known), but a couple of big differences between the two would be (1) the Anschutz family was/is actually socially/religiously conservative, whereas DT was/is an irreligious, philandering Manhattan/Hollywood sexual deviant (and his favored daughter and son in law, up until last year, ran in liberal circles) and (2) the Anschutz family has donated an enormous amount of money to various medical, cultural, etc. institutions (unlike Chicago and NYC, most of Colorado’s biggest benefactors have been conservative/Republican), whereas the Trump family has made no such mark on the regions in which they’ve made their fortunes.

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  150. “The Matson Trial (1847), officially Matson v. Ashmore et al. for the use of Bryant, was a freedom suit by former slave Anthony Bryant on behalf of his family in Coles County, Illinois. It is noted for the unusual circumstance where Abraham Lincoln, the future emancipator of slaves, defended a slave-owner against a slave. The case pitted Lincoln and former Illinois Attorney General Usher F. Linder against former US Representative Orlando B. Ficklin. Ficklin’s case proved successful, and Bryant’s family was emancipated based on free soil doctrine.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matson_Trial

    Lawyers handle all types of cases you of all people should know that SB.

    Should we take down all busts of Lincoln? Is that what you’re getting at here?

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  151. Anschutz was represented by Gorsuch, so what. that happens all the time in the legal world

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  152. “If you wanted that $450,000 townhouse, there are now plenty of them on the market in the GreenZone.”

    Using a generous definition of the Green Zone, and relying on Redfin for what is a townhouse, there are 30. Scanning thru that list quickly, half of those are either not really gz, or not really townhomes. 15 doesn’t seem like plenty, tho I’m sure it’s more than a year ago.

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  153. I agree with anon (tfo) – what 450k townhouses are out there ? i did a search today and come up with 0.

    Also, slovenia and italy? GTFO.

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  154. Using 4 higher income community areas bordering the lake, including Near South Side I come up with 9 below 450K. That’s pretty cheap for those neighborhoods. What do you expect? But there are 119 total.

    Attached inventory is in short supply in general.

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  155. I’m seeing only 1 townhouse for under $450,000 in what will be my target area when I get my new job – south of Armitage, west of Racine, and north of 18th. That townhouse is a dump.

    I would consider making an offer on something like this though: http://www.estately.com/listings/info/1332-north-burling-street–1

    However, I suspect it’s in one of those communities with public housing residents, so I would have to give it a lot of thought before making an offer.

    Heck, I just checked University Village and there’s only one townhouse available anywhere near my price range (listed at $499k)
    and it needs a lot of work since the owner converted it into two units.

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  156. When people talk about how other countries are better than the US…that may be true by certain narrow definitions but one thing that is often overlooked is the GDP/ capita and how you feel that in terms of your surroundings. We rank #20 on that measure and when I travel I feel a 20% difference – except Ireland certainly didn’t feel like it was 21% higher than the US. It’s like the difference between staying in a Hyatt vs. a Holiday Inn. You feel the difference.

    People in these supposedly better places live in half the homes that we do and own half the stuff and are dependent on public transportation to get around. I’m not claiming that our lifestyle is inherently better but this apparently is what Americans want so I find it hard to believe that the average American would find those places better.

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  157. Jenny,

    I suspect you are referring to 835 W Village Ct. That’s currently under contract and that was not converted into 2 units. That’s the way they built a handful of these. The lower level has a separate entrance but it’s also connected to the upper floors. The only weird thing about it is that you have that small kitchen on the first level.

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  158. “I suspect you are referring to 835 W Village Ct. That’s currently under contract and that was not converted into 2 units. That’s the way they built a handful of these. The lower level has a separate entrance but it’s also connected to the upper floors. The only weird thing about it is that you have that small kitchen on the first level.”

    I was inside one of those once. It was odd, but you could still easily access the upper two floors from the lower level. The agent’s phrasing make it sound like the owner had cut off the two floors and turned it into a legal 2 flat. This is the place I was referring to: http://www.estately.com/listings/info/837-west-village-court–6

    It looks like it’s next door to the one you referenced.

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  159. “GDP/ capita … We rank #20 on that measure”

    Um, huh???

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita

    (PPP adjusted is about the same, but we fall behind a couple more oil states)

    And the aggregate population of the countries ahead of USA is less than Florida, which means their aggregate GDP is about the same as NY state, alone.

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  160. “one of those communities with public housing residents”

    With that little cluster, I wouldn’t feel comfortable buying to live there for the longer term until the city decides (1) whether or not they will build a high school next door, and (2) what will happen with the large parcel to the south. Provided the ass’n doesn’t restrict rentals too much, would be a good property for that, whatever happens. But I wouldn’t want to live that close to what *might* happen with the neighboring land.

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  161. Anon,

    I was looking at the CIA world factbook. You obviously get different estimates from different sources.

    Jenny,

    Interesting observation about 837 W Village. It’s got mixed messaging. Described alternately as a rowhouse and a townhome and listed as a 2 flat. So if you search for townhouses you miss it, as I did. These are a little tricky to sell because they can be used either way but the MLS wants you to pick one, though we got away in the past listing them both ways.

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  162. Slovenia is gorgeous and has a high quality of life. Cheap too. Italy is similar but more money and a little too chaotic and disorderly for my tastes. I would not argue with amyone who chose to live in either. I personally couldn’t live with how homogenized everything is in most of Europe though.

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  163. “I was looking at the CIA world factbook.”

    Hong Kong and Macau are semi-autonomous cities in China, not nations that can be legitimately compared to the US as a whole. Liechtenstein, Monaco, San Marino, Falklands, Isle of Man, Bermuda, Gibraltar–each one of them is like comparing Lake Forest, or Highland Park, TX, to the nation as a whole–like comparing Disney World to a real community.

    Yes, they do fantastically well, and are nice places, but it’s more than a little bit fake and manufactured.

    Which is a long way of saying: sure, and indeed the CIA Factbook basically agrees with the IMF, the World Bank and the UN, but gives credit to non-nation-states for whatever reasons.

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  164. dt’s apologist hd posted “Anschutz was represented by Gorsuch, so what. that happens all the time in the legal world”.

    Ironic hd who’s so sensitive to clout re grade school admissions is willing to overlook fact that Anschutz pulled strings w Geo W Bush to get Gorsuch appointed to fed court after Gorsuch defended Anschutz’s company agst self-dealing re paying Anschutz a $373 mil payout & settled insider trading re collapse of Anschutz’ Quest Comm for millions. In SC nomination hearing when asked if he’d recuse himself from SC cases involving Anschutz, “Gorsuch didn’t answer directly, instead saying that he’d refer to the law and his colleagues before making a decision.”

    (‘Agree to abstain from helping my chinaman – isn’t that sacrilegious?’ thought Gorsuch imho.) Gorsuch & Anschutz sound a lot like the corrupt IL pols & their puppet masters that hd complains about here. But at least Anschutz didn’t clout anyone into Bell.

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  165. “Anschutz was represented by Gorsuch, so what. that happens all the time in the legal world”.

    “The Corleone’s were represented by Tom Hagen, so what”.

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  166. ““The Corleone’s were represented by Tom Hagen, so what”.

    A quote so dear to my heart…

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  167. I’m seeing only 1 townhouse for under $450,000 in what will be my target area when I get my new job – south of Armitage, west of Racine, and north of 18th. That townhouse is a dump.

    University Village isn’t the GreenZone. South Loop has plenty of townhouses in the $400,000s as does the north side. Bucktown/Wicker Park and Ukrainian Village just don’t have as many townhome communities, in general, and they are hotter neighborhoods right now so there’s less available.

    South Loop was really hot earlier in the year and now it’s just dead.

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  168. Using a generous definition of the Green Zone, and relying on Redfin for what is a townhouse

    anon(tfo)- the definition of “GreenZone” isn’t “generous.” It IS the GreenZone.

    It includes (for those that need a refresher):

    Loop
    South Loop (including Printers Row, Motor Row)
    West Loop
    Near North Side (Gold Coast, River North, Streeterville)
    Lincoln Park (including Old Town)
    Lake View
    North Center
    Andersonville
    West Town (including Ukrainian Village, Wicker Park and Bucktown)

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  169. “It remains an inventory problem. It will be down again and market times are similarly down again. That’s not what I would call a slow market.”

    I agree that it is an inventory problem BUT there are some properties that would have sold in a week, sometimes with multiple bids, that are just sitting there now with 30 days in the market- all under $600,000. All in the GreenZone. Why?

    Why is it taking 30 to 60 days to now selling the 1-bedroom that is cheaper to buy than to rent? Seems odd.

    It’s like the buyers suddenly went away in August for some reason.

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  170. “the 2bd high rise in lake front LP and gold coast / streeterville is soft soft soft, lots of supply and plenty of price cuts, but there are then nutball listings with seller putting up a place that’s worth 500-550 for 800 and cutting prices for 18 months. What kind of agent takes a listing like that? Why do people do such nutty things for ‘let’s see what happens’ shot in the dark?

    Seeing tons of price cuts in SFH especially in bucktown and roscoe, now decent but not fancy SFH are to be had for ~900 whereas it seemed like you need to cross 1mm or 1.1+.”

    Thanks for checking in Mike. I am seeing a lot of softness in several markets. Seems like prices hit a ceiling despite low mortgage rates and a still strong job market. Suddenly buyers are balking.

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  171. “there are some properties that would have sold in a week, sometimes with multiple bids, that are just sitting there now with 30 days in the market- all under $600,000. All in the GreenZone. Why?”

    It’s impossible to say that something WOULD HAVE SOLD IN A WEEK before. How would you ever know that? It’s totally subjective. That’s why you have to look at the aggregate data. And market times are down again.

    “It’s like the buyers suddenly went away in August for some reason.”

    It was premature for me to say that sales would be down in August. As the sales are reported it’s looking like August might be at least relatively flat to last year.

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  172. “South Loop has plenty of townhouses in the $400,000s”

    I only see 2 on the market right now – right around 450K.

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  173. “anon(tfo)- the definition of “GreenZone” isn’t “generous.” It IS the GreenZone.”

    I drew a boundary in Redfin that was over-inclusive. That gave me 30 “townhomes” at/under $450k. A quick review showed that about half of them were actually just condos, and some number of them were outside the GZ. So, *maybe* 10 THs, in the GZ, under $450k.

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  174. “University Village isn’t the GreenZone. South Loop has plenty of townhouses in the $400,000s as does the north side. Bucktown/Wicker Park and Ukrainian Village just don’t have as many townhome communities, in general, and they are hotter neighborhoods right now so there’s less available.”

    I see one in all of the south loop and it’s run down and only has 1.5 baths.

    “University Village isn’t the GreenZone. South Loop has plenty of townhouses in the $400,000s as does the north side. Bucktown/Wicker Park and Ukrainian Village just don’t have as many townhome communities, in general, and they are hotter neighborhoods right now so there’s less available.”

    My point is that I’m seeing very few townhouses for under $500k even in non-greenzone neighborhoods.

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  175. If you can’t afford a townhome for $450,000+ in the GZ then you should probably move out to Tinley Park and get a mcmansion for that price. Pay up!!!! Writing that check is what separates the grownups from the children.

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  176. “Pay up!!!!!” says troll cka hd, who paid abt $200k for a fixer-upper ranch in/near Mt Prospect a few yrs back. There’s nothing wrong w/frugality imo – hd’s just a hypocrite again. Do lawyers take the hypocritical oath?

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  177. Tinley park taxes are nutso, fuck that shit

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  178. And Tinley Park is a dump.

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  179. southbound. it was long grove. long grove.

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  180. I can understand moving to the suburbs if you have a family and can’t afford private school or your kids don’t get into a selective enrollment Chicago public school.

    For a single person, a city townhouse is ideal though. Being able to afford $500k on my single income is not going to happen until I find a new job. I understand the majority of people buying these places have dual incomes, so $500k isn’t really that much in the grand scheme of things. A DINK couple where each earns $75k can easily afford a $500k townhouse.

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  181. “A DINK couple where each earns $75k can easily afford a $500k townhouse.”

    …assuming they scratch up at least $50k (pref. $100k) for a down payment. That’s the hard part.

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  182. I think the Chicago GZ housing market is slowing because people are freaking out over Chicago and Cook County and CPS tax bills. Who really wants to upgrade in price and tax liability right now with that level of uncertainty?

    “HH and his crazy fringe shit too.”

    There is nothing crazy or fringe or false about anything I say. You’re just a flat-out cuck, and probably will always remain so. Why should the “white” student body of Harvard be 50% Jewish/50% white when Jews are nowhere near, not even close, that 50% of National Merit Scholars as compared whites nationally? That Christian valedictorian kid from Iowa or Palatine gets screwed, not an advantage. He gets edged out by that East Coast Jewish legacy kid from the privileged $$ feeder prep school who has lesser merit. There may be affirm action for Lindbloom minority kids but not the suburban or rural white American kid, and esp. if they happen to believe in southbound’s religion!

    PS Trump really messed up today with the DACA thing. Right now Durbin and Lindsay Graham are talking about passing the DREAM Act. Anecdote: My cleaning lady has a polish daughter who goes to Loyola U. and isn’t qualifying for any aid whatsoever. She lives on the NW side and works full-time for a property management company cleaning Class A office buildings. Yet she somehow still doesn’t qualify for tuition assistance. But she says her Hispanic neighbors drive a BMW SUV and are on food stamps, and you can tell it’s very defeating for her right now. She’s in her late 50s.

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  183. “…assuming they scratch up at least $50k (pref. $100k) for a down payment. That’s the hard part.”

    it’s not as hard as you think. I rented and lived well below my means during all of my 20’s and early 30’s. I don’t mean sharing a house in Uptown with 4 other frat boys, but either lived alone or with someone in a two bedroom apartment only slightly off the beaten path. These vintage apts didn’t have granite countertops, parking was street parking only, the windows were original. But I managed to save tens upon tens of thousands of dollars. While my friends were traveling the world and skiing in Breckenridge I was renting a kayak in the midwest. While my friends were driving Audis and BMW’s, I was driving a honda. I saved up, bought my mcmansion in long grove, and life is fabulous.

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  184. HH: don’t believe your cleaning lady’s daughter’s sob story. Let her show you her award package first.

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  185. ” I saved up, bought my mcmansion in long grove, and life is fabulous.”

    the make ranch style Mcmansions?

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  186. “Why should the “white” student body of Harvard be 50% Jewish/50% white when Jews are nowhere near, not even close, that 50% of National Merit Scholars as compared whites nationally?”

    HH, where do you get your data? Less than 15% of whites are Jewish in the 2017 graduating class at Harvard. http://features.thecrimson.com/2013/frosh-survey/lifestyle.html

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  187. “Why should the “white” student body of Harvard be 50% Jewish/50% white when Jews are nowhere near, not even close, that 50% of National Merit Scholars as compared whites nationally?”

    Tsk, tsk, HH. You know better than anyone that the Ivy League, except Penn, had Jewish quotas for decades. Jewish students, therefore, have always preferred other schools, like Michigan and Wisconsin, which did not have the quotas. They’ve stayed very loyal to those other schools, actually.

    And that valedictorian from Palatine is likely to be Asian, not white Anglo Saxon. But we all know HH doesn’t live in Chicago so he really wouldn’t know the diversity of the city or the suburbs here.

    And I’m so tired of the stories of the poor person who is somehow getting $4000 a month from Social Security Disability and gets food stamps and eats grapes from their chaise lounge every day. Pulease. So laughable.

    Nothing is stopping you, HH, from going on food stamps. Nothing.

    And if the daughter of your cleaning lady can’t get any aid at a private school, that’s because her parents make too much money. She should have gone to community college or a state university to avoid having large student loans when she graduates.

    DACA has absolutely NOTHING to do with them getting preferential treatment. All it does is allow them to actually get a job and a drivers license so they can fly on a plane.

    If HH was from Chicago, he would know that many of the Dreamers in Chicago are actually white. They are Poles, Ukrainians, Russians, Slovaks etc. They came over on planes as children. Most likely on tourist visas. Were left behind with an aunt/uncle while the parents went back home.

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  188. “…assuming they scratch up at least $50k (pref. $100k) for a down payment. That’s the hard part.”

    We used to talk about this in 2010-2011 when banks were tightening down payment requirements. Realistically, it will take that DINK couple 5 to 6 years to save the down payment (with no outside parental help.) This is why they’re NOT doing it. The banks are allowing 3% to 5% down now (with PMI) so why not take it? That’s so much easier.

    And in 6 years, they won’t be DINKs anymore and probably won’t even want to live in the smallish townhouse.

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  189. “I see one in all of the south loop and it’s run down and only has 1.5 baths.”

    When I posted my comment, there were a bunch in the South Loop, some of which then went under contract. They sat on the market a few weeks though which is surprising. Those were going under contract almost immediately just a few months ago. Now? Not so much.

    Same on the north side.

    And yes- you will likely not get an updated 2000 square foot spacious townhouse for the $450,000.

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  190. “I only see 2 on the market right now – right around 450K.”

    They went under contract! Have to act at that price point but I was surprised to see some of them sitting around for more than a few days. Staying on the market for a week or two or more these days. Buyers are getting picky. Even starting to reject townhouses under $500k.

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  191. “It’s impossible to say that something WOULD HAVE SOLD IN A WEEK before. How would you ever know that?”

    Because they are townhouses in the same complex that I saw in the spring, swarmed with buyers, where the agents said, “best offer by Monday” and then it sold within 24 hours and now, in the same complex, they are sitting for several weeks.

    So yeah- I feel like I can confidently say that the market has slowed considerably Gary.

    Go look at all the re-lists today. Don’t tell me you didn’t notice how many properties were suddenly “listed” when they were really re-lists. Sure, some of the properties were overpriced to begin with or have other “problems” but even those overpriced properties were selling in the spring.

    Not anymore.

    The market has sloooowed. Buyers have gone bye-bye.

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  192. “The market has sloooowed. Buyers have gone bye-bye.”

    That’s not what the data is saying. I’ll be publishing my update on Thursday.

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  193. https://adc.d211.org/information/accolades/national-merit-semifinalists/

    While not valedictorians the national merit scholars are certainly a good approximation, and most of them are considered ‘asian’ (which includes the indian subcontinent). Yet only 8% of Palatine high school is asian, while 42% is white and the the other 42% is hispanic. There isn’t a single hispanic surname in the entire list of D211 national merit scholars.

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  194. This is because the legacy of white privilege as enforced by older white republican residents perpetuates institutional racism.

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-palatine-school-referendum-met-20161010-story.html

    “Palatine school referendum spotlights segregation, busing issues ”

    ********

    “Since 1996, the northwest suburban district has changed from 25 to 60 percent minority, with nearly half of all students low-income. The percentage of students learning English has doubled, to 22 percent.

    Many of the district’s Hispanic students live in relatively high-density apartment complexes in pockets of Palatine and Rolling Meadows. Many are bused to one of seven schools that have bilingual programs. The elementary school district, the third largest in the state, draws from seven communities and covers about 35 square miles.

    As one example of the achievement gap, the district notes that Hispanic eighth-graders scored more than 30 percent lower than their white counterparts on the PARCC standardized tests for English proficiency.

    In part to address that, officials say, one of the proposed new schools would be built in a Hispanic neighborhood in the northeast corner of Palatine. The school would offer expanded instructional hours for 1,200 students, plus bilingual classes and social services such as a health clinic. “

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  195. http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20161108/news/161108936/

    Voters overwhelmingly reject District 15 bond issue plan for new schools

    “Palatine Elementary School District 15’s $130 million bond issue plan has been overwhelmingly rejected, according to unofficial election results.”

    “With all 76 precincts reporting, 33,055 people voted no, 70.6 percent of all votes cast, and 13,741 voted yes, only 29.4 percent of the total, on the referendum question.”

    *****

    “The plan was first discussed in the spring and proved to be a contentious issue among members of the district community. A group of parents opposing the plan formed and launched a website in September urging voters to reject the plan. The group, called For Our District 15 Kids, said the plan was rushed and flawed and that a new school with nearly 75 percent minority and low income students would segregate and divide the Palatine community.”

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  196. And just to make it abundantly how rampant white privilege is among older white homeowners in a demographically changing area like Palatine, the former (D) school board was summarily tossed out of office for (R), sending a clear message that voters just don’t care.

    http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20170404/news/170409576/

    Palatine District 15 voters oust incumbents in referendum backlash

    “Voters in Palatine Township Elementary District 15 sent an opposition school board slate into office in what appears to be a sharp repudiation of incumbents who agreed to a historic 10-year teacher contract last year and voted to put a controversial school referendum on the ballot last fall.

    With all 76 precincts reporting, all five members of Engage D15 held leads of 1,200 votes or more in the unofficial tally. They will become a strong majority on the seven-member board.”

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  197. I thought this would be relevant to real estate, showing some of the major political drama playing out on the school board in a sleepy but demographically changing place like Palatine in the NW Suburbs.

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  198. HD, it is relevant because schools are one of the major factors driving real estate purchase decisions. Knowing how a community is addressing current and future school issues is something I think most parents would probably be concerned about, particularly as it relates to the long term value of their largest asset.

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  199. “Yet only 8% of Palatine high school is asian”…

    “Palatine High School’s semifinalists are Brandon R. Canfield, Sarah M. Gonwa, and Emily C. Steinebrey.”

    The district as a whole–which is what that NMS link is relevant to–is 18% asian, 50% white and 23% hispanic.

    Fremd–where half those kids go to school–is 23% asian, 62% white, and 9% hispanic.

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  200. “The district as a whole–which is what that NMS link is relevant to–is 18% asian, 50% white and 23% hispanic. ”

    I know, I got the 8% figure from another site, but I didn’t link because I wasn’t trying to cite, I only wanted to provide links to stories in the newspaper, I was hoping that oversight wouldn’t be a problem!

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  201. “In Chicago, it seemed like there was a definite market slowdown in July and now, again, in August. The urgency appears gone and many listings aren’t selling as quickly, even in the “affordable” price point under $300,000.”

    I am actually seeing them go *VERY* quickly in all areas of the city with multiple offers before I can even make it to town to see them.

    This is the price point I am looking at for single family homes. I would like to do another project because that is my passion. But I feel like prices have basically doubled since the bottom of the market and property taxes and insurance are way up, so it just doesn’t make financial sense.

    A few years ago I could buy a house in a decent area for about 175 – 225K and make about 50K in repairs to make sure the foundation, plumbing, electrical and roof were in excellent condition so I’d be all in for about 225 – 275K.

    Now I’m looking at homes listed at 300K much further from the train and groceries and they need a minimum of 100K in repairs due to the grave extent of their deferred maintenance or shoddy DIY electrical and plumbing. So after all that, you’d be all in for 400K. That doesn’t cash-flow positively with a rental and if you need to sell you’re probably not recouping your investment especially with transfer taxes and real estate commissions.

    I’ve been looking at Milwaukee, but although prices are lower they have equally high property taxes and rents are bizarrely the same across the city whether you buy a 10K hovel in the hood or a 300K duplex in a fancy lakefront area.

    Also, although I have fun in Milwaukee it just doesn’t make my heart soar like Chicago does.

    If anyone has any ideas, please let me know.

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  202. “If anyone has any ideas, please let me know.”

    Try Indiana…i hear everyone from Illinois is fleeing there

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  203. “Also, although I have fun in Milwaukee it just doesn’t make my heart soar like Chicago does.

    If anyone has any ideas, please let me know.”

    Milkster: I agree that Chicago is now too expensive to house flip. Will that bungalow you buy for $300k, put $50k into it, really sell for $450k or $500k? Seems absurd in some neighborhoods like Portage Park or Irving Park.

    Have you considered St. Louis? The housing stock is to DIE for. You would love it. There are rehab projects all over the place, even in the old original French neighborhood of Soulard. Plenty of up and coming neighborhoods. The city is doing well economically.

    I’ve thought about going down there and doing a special Crib Chatter week of St. Louis housing because it’s so fantastic.

    This house is made for you Milkster:

    https://www.redfin.com/MO/St-Louis/1204-Allen-Ave-63104/home/93685772

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  204. I like Soulard but it’s been the “hip” place since at least the early 90’s and that there’s a $200M house there tells you how fast the hood is changing.

    At least its about as far away from the Bud plant as possible

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  205. A 200K house that is a complete gut job, how much profit potential is there really?

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  206. As promised here is my August update. Rumors of the death of the Chicago real estate market are greatly exaggerated. Market times are low and declining as are inventories although sales did decrease slightly. August was down 1.9% from last year, though the IAR will report it as 3.4% decline. http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2017/09/chicago-real-estate-market-update-market-strong-despite-lower-sales/

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  207. St. Louis is appealing. I visited last year and felt perfectly safe being out in downtown at 3am. Everything was closed and my friends and I felt like we had the beautiful city to ourselves.

    The housing stock is pretty and Purina/Nestle has large corporate office out there with a private dog park.

    My whole social support system is here though and making new friends is an unpleasant process.

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  208. “The city is doing well economically. ”
    It is not at all…
    St. Louis is fucking awful, like really fucking awful

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  209. I recently was visiting St. Louis for the eclipse and just for the hell of it I looked up the income data by census tract. The entire city is low income. All the higher income people live in little enclaves outside the “city”.

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  210. But yeah Milkster I’d look at Detroit before St. Louis

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  211. I was in St. Louis last month. I really couldn’t get a feel for the city at all. I went to someone’s house and the neighborhood was god awful. It was some enclave which appeared to be fairly well off (apparently the guys across the street neighbor is a pitcher for the Cardinals). It was an older neighborhood with ranch homes where every other house was a tear down gaudy McMansion too big for the lot designed by drunk architects.

    A few years ago I went down to Washington University and the area around it seemed nice.

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  212. St. Louis is entirely car dependent and too muggy most months of the year. The city itself has fewer residents today than it did in 1880. Head just a little ways outside the city, in south co. and beyond, and things haven’t changed much since 1866.

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  213. We walked most of the downtown area around 3:00 am. We saw very few other people out. I wonder if they have an area like River North, that we just missed.

    I have a friend who lives in Chesterton, a suburb of St. Louis. I have no desire to live somewhere like that. It’s similar to how Russ described, ranches with tear downs. The person who used to own my friend’s house played for a hockey team. There is an ugly team logo in their pool. I can’t imagine living in such a suburb, but downtown St. Louis was lovely and the City Museum is awesome.

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  214. St Louis is like Detroit, except for a few historic or hipster neighborhoods, only the poor minorities live in the city limits. The public transit system is practically non-existent because of the NIMBYs.

    The downtown area is nice but small. You can park very close to the Arch for all day for what you’d pay for 15 minutes in DT Chicago.

    They do not have a wide variety of good ethnic food but do have an over abundance of closet racists.

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  215. They aren’t even closet racists, they literally shout out the N word in bars

    place is terrible and the City Museum and the Arch is the ONLY interesting thing to do there.

    The food sucks, the people suck, the weather really sucks, traffic sucks too

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  216. No one’s mentioned the great ‘G’ hope for chicago real estate – will Google decide to locate its 2nd hq here?

    Just so hd doesn’t get to push his agenda here w/o consequence- his misdirection claiming ‘white privilege’ influenced repudiation of school board incumbents and planned construction is classic hd (or a lie, if you will). As hd knows his Repub party financially backed the replacement school bd members & paid for ads that killed proposed spending to build new schools. Like helmet hofer hd clearly considers only certain of those immigrant kids negatively – the asian ones are almost ok (although hd/Repubs wants affirmative action for their kids vs asian immigrants kids for college adm’n. How un-American is that? Imo hd/his ilk will get what he/they deserve after heavy handed Repub involvement in local school issues. Best wishes for seeing any home value appreciation. But they saved $10/mo so they’ve got that going for themselves!

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  217. Its amazon, dumbass

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  218. Gary: Not sure what Harvard is trying to pull there on that link by saying Catholics are overrepresented at Harvard. Maybe only among the people who reported being religious. Because most Jews in America today are atheistic and barely religious at all. They support Israel out of racial/tribal solidarity, not the tenets of religion or altruism.

    Diversicrats and anti-white racists in academia at Ivies (many of whom are Jewish) are moving full speed with racial quotas, to make the Ivies about 50% white, and Jews are indeed 1/2 of the whites: Yale University’s undergrad student body is 27 percent Jewish (1,500 Jewish undergrads out of 5,477 total). Percentage-wise, it narrowly beats out its Ivy League rival Harvard University, which is 25 percent Jewish (1,675 out of 6,694 undergrads). source: http://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/The-most-heavily-Jewish-US-college-and-other-facts-about-Jews-at-American-colleges-437701

    Jews DO NOT make up 50% of the white National Merit Scholars in America and nowhere near 50% of white valedictorians. Not even close! Ron Unz explained all of this, if anyone cares to seek the Truth about it. Google it.

    Sabrina talks about quotas, but those anti-Jewish quotas were many decades ago. The legacy “brat” who gets special privileges today to enter Harvard is probably a Jewish kid from a fancy suburb who’s Jewish parents’ graduated from Harvard in the 70’s and 80’s, long after quotas were gone. Today it’s reversed.

    Today, the facts are that with Affirm Action and jewish over-representation (over and above their academic achievement/merit), Asians and then whites, and then rural white Christians are the most discriminated against as compared to true merit % and population %.

    Sabrina, do you have any facts to back up your assertion that whites are most of the DACA illegals here? That is a cheap ploy out the Dick Durbin playbook that that pathological anti-white politician uses along with racist Luis Gutierrez. He always will talk about illegal Irish as if they’re a large factor (they’re not). Are the Polish and Irish joining street gangs and distributing cartel drugs? Going on food stamps and claiming affirm action privileges they have earned and don’t deserve?

    The fake news media, the Liberals (totalitarian Communists), and the anti-white bigots and racists will always find that 1% from the Dreamer group that “became a doctor” and they’ll trot out this person for propaganda on TV or Good Morning America etc. What about the gangbangers, mooches, drunk drivers, etc.? Trump is right they are taking jobs away from Americans, esp. unemployed African-Americans. But to Liberals, it’s not about actually helping blacks but always putting the screws to whitey. I have no idea how people like southbound become suckers for such ideology against their own offsprings’ future.

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  219. Gary, thanks for posting the August numbers. It does seem like nothing is on the market.

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  220. southbound, which republicans financed that local school board? the RNC? the IL R party? did rauner stump for them?

    the fact of the matter is that most of the country is R. most americans have throughly rejected liberal D values and ideals. heck Biss running for Gov just dumped his own running mate after a week because he was a loon. your party has more loons than all the lakes in the northwoods! most of america is turning a very deep red and your ideals are being rejected. you need to look at yourself and ask yourself why your party can’t win elections. it’s because america doesn’t agree with you. i strongly urge you to grow up and join the republican party. it’s a big tent here and we welcome all members, especially former bleeding heart liberals.

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  221. thanks Sonies and with respect to St Louis “..traffic sucks too..” – I don’t disagree abt traffic but imo St Louis expressways represent a nearly perfect design of entrances & exits – there are tons and tons of them

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  222. hd agrees the R party ‘lower taxes no matter the cost’ supported winning subject school bd candidates. hd then spewed bs: “..most of country is R. most americans have thoroughly rejected liberal D values /ideals….”

    Election totals just 10 mos ago disagree – 2.86 MILLION more registered voters chose D’s choice over R’s carnie huckster. Maybe hd believes dt’s performance since drew millions of new believers into R’s tent? R ideal’s focus on making America greater for billionaires & their C-level buddies. R’s like hd (& Joe the plumber) believe the fairy tale/lotto dream that their fortunes might one day be the size of Phil Anschutz’s so they need to make sure taxes are lowered before that day arrives. Sad. But we’ll see who laughs in ’18 (#won’tbehd)

    hd will you now agree Putin/Russian gov’t actively supported t’s election? (when your soulmate helmet heil-hitler hofer extolled complete lack of criminal conduct by white immigrants hh overlooked massive russki/E European immigrant involvement in gangs, drugs, smuggling, tax evasion, sucking up benefits intended for US citizens & election tampering no?). A continuing cascade of lies from liars like dt jr, who appear to be attempting to cover criminal conduct by dt & other R’s, won’t be ended by pardons from dt. jmo

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  223. Helmethofer, the Jerusalem Post article clearly states that their statistics were ESTIMATED by Hillel. I’ll take survey results any day over an estimate like that. And here are the stats on Yale: http://features.yaledailynews.com/blog/2015/09/02/2019-by-the-numbers-keeping-faith-at-yale/

    Now, if you want to claim that half of all Jews are not practicing then that brings Yale up to 18% Jewish max.

    There is no Jewish conspiracy though I’m sure you’d love there to be one.

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  224. https://secure.gop.com/donate

    welcome home sb, welcome home.

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  225. “the fact of the matter is that most of the country is R.”

    This actually is totally wrong as all the large states in the country (by population) are now mostly blue.

    As we “discussed” right after the election, Hillary won every major city in America except Oklahoma City and Phoenix. With what’s happened the last few months, Phoenix will surely go blue in 2020. In fact, all of Arizona likely will.

    Texas, because of the “bluing” of the big city suburbs, could possibly go blue as soon as 2020 but probably will have to wait until 2024. But, again, with the DACA decision, the immigration executive orders etc. it’s hard to believe many non-whites will want to be voting Republican in Texas on the national level any time soon. Lying Ted’s re-election campaign in 2018 should be interesting.

    More counties are now red, but most are the low population rural areas.

    There’s no doubt that the Republican party now appeals to the rural areas where job opportunities suck. They are falling further and further behind the cities. They are scared. The wealth difference is now astounding. Go to any rural areas in any states. Outside of some small towns near colleges/universities, they are really depressed economically. No future there for their children. It is true in every country on this planet and why Istanbul and Mexico City both now have populations over 20 million (that is a “new” thing- has happened in the last 20 years.)

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  226. “Sabrina, do you have any facts to back up your assertion that whites are most of the DACA illegals here?”

    If HH lived in Chicago, he would have a clue as to the ethnic make up of the city and the entire region up to Milwaukee. But since he doesn’t live here, and never has, I’ll have to educate him.

    Illinois is the 3rd largest DACA state. Is it all because of our Mexican population? We do have a large Mexican immigrant population but its hard to believe we beat out Texas DACA numbers on just Mexicans alone. Right?

    We are the largest Polish city outside of Poland. There are thousands of non-Hispanic dreamers in Illinois. Heck, I’d be interested in knowing the percentage who are Asian and Indian as well. Lots of Chinese and Korean DACA kids.

    It’s a real dis-service to all 800,000 of them to lump them all as Mexican. They’re not.

    And, by the way, 92% of DACA are working. It would really throw the economy into a loop to deport them all. Could put the country into a recession. Some are as old as 35. They have 401ks. Careers. Families.

    Trump has no idea what he’s talking about. Haven’t you figured that out yet? He’s clueless. About everything.

    If you want a job, Epic Burger is hiring right now in downtown Chicago. So is Amazon at its distribution centers. Domino’s is desperate for drivers. The farmers in Southern Illinois can’t find anyone to pick their peaches so they have brought in temporary Mexican labor.

    The Congress must fix the immigration system. Now’s their chance to give the DACA recipients real legal status so they can live their lives.

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  227. “I recently was visiting St. Louis for the eclipse and just for the hell of it I looked up the income data by census tract. The entire city is low income. All the higher income people live in little enclaves outside the “city”.”

    It definitely has its poor neighborhoods Gary, just like Chicago. But it has turned the corner and is gentrifying just like every other city in America. You think all the higher income people live outside of the city because they did for the decades before that but, again, they are gentrifying things.

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  228. “St. Louis is appealing. I visited last year and felt perfectly safe being out in downtown at 3am. Everything was closed and my friends and I felt like we had the beautiful city to ourselves.”

    Most Chicagoans never really visit St. Louis. They go to a Cardinals game and that’s it.

    Jenny- one of the best neighborhoods is apparently Central West End near the park.

    https://explorestlouis.com/things-to-do/neighborhoods/central-west-end/

    Real estate is more expensive there. There are some gorgeous historic mansions currently on the market in CWE including this one:

    https://www.redfin.com/MO/St-Louis/32-Westmoreland-Pl-63108/home/93745506

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  229. Milkster,

    You may also want to think about Louisville. Really good housing stock there and also a good economy.

    In Cincinnati, flippers have been active in the Over the Rhine neighborhood too but it may be too late to really get anything cheap there.

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  230. I’ll bite, What areas in STL are gentrifying?

    You pick a house in Soulard an area that’s been gentrfring since at least 93. Waiting for your next pick

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  231. “No one’s mentioned the great ‘G’ hope for chicago real estate – will Google decide to locate its 2nd hq here?”

    Why do we need Amazon?

    Real estate prices are up like 25% in the GreenZone in the last 3 to 4 years and they’re still rising. We have 8,000 to 10,000 luxury apartments coming on the market though. We could use a bunch of jobs in order to fill those.

    The Riverline project in the South Loop would get a boost from more jobs. As would the possible developments on the Tribune lots on the river. And there’s that steel site up in Lincoln Park they are going to redevelop too.

    Helmut Jahn’s new high rise on Grant Park is about to open its sales center. That’s another couple hundred luxury condo units. We need buyers for those too.

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  232. Knew you were going to go one of the hoods around Forest Park LOL.

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  233. I get the humanitarian aspect of DACA but I don’t think that overrides the fact that they were born somewhere else, are here illegally, and are taking jobs away from american citizens.

    “Twenty-two percent of American men without college degrees have not worked at all in the last 12 months, according to The Economist, and a small but significant number may have dropped out of the workforce entirely and now spend their days playing video games.”

    http://www.businessinsider.com/statistics-unemployed-men-drop-out-workforce-video-games-2017-3

    97% of DACA being employed means illegal immigrants are taking low wage jobs from Americans who would otherwise be working.

    It would be great to have a shortage of american workers – employers will be forced to raise wages, and the standard of living for american citizens of all color and races. All those ‘now hiring’ signs are great – employers will have to pay more money to hire workers. This is a ‘good’ thing. Remember during the recession when hiring employers could pay a pittance because there were no jobs?

    I have no problem at all sending DACA back home. They have been a guest here, received basically free education, healthcare, and 99% of the time , a free meal a day from the government for their entire lives and now it’s time to return home to their country of their birth to make it a better place. They should be thanking america for providing them with such a wonderful opportunity to spend their formative years in the first world. Instead, they complain and say gimme gimme gimme. I find it insulting and ungrateful, to be honest. I understand that I have a minority view on this subject, but it’s a minority view shared by 10s of millions of other americans, all of whom want to see american jobs for americans.

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  234. HD, ust read yesterday that a lot of these people not working are addicted to opioids and that’s why they’re not working. I agree that people should be legally accounted for but I’m all in favor of finding a way for these people to become legal citizens. The real question is what is the right level of legal immigration? Thoughts? Because if all you want is high US wages (and a higher cost of living) then 0 immigration would certainly help in that regard.

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  235. I take more of restrictive position on immigration because I believe it does not benefit middle class american citizens. I read an article a while back about Brexit and the elite, urban anti-brexit author had a come to jesus moment about immigration. he said that he lived in a large city, earned a far above average living, and immigrants basically served his every need from cleaning his house, to watching his children, to serving him food, teach his children at the private schools and landscape his office park.

    But to the average briton, it’s not so simple. They’re just trying to make a living, but have to share overcrowded buses with foreigners who don’t speak engligh, are paying higher rents because immigrants are moving into their working class neighborhoods, they watch their neighborhoods disappear and change as foreginers move in, they pay higher school district taxes to educate the children of foreigners who don’t speak english, and they believe that immigration overall greatly reduces their quality of life, all so some rich guy in London can have ‘cheap’ services. The true QOL costs are borne by the rest of society, all for the benefit of the elite urbanite.

    I strongly believe this is the case in America too. Maybe some of american’s opiod problem stems from the fact that they can’t find a living wage, because those jobs have mostly been taken by low wage third world workers who are willing to work (often under the table) for a third world wage.

    if you had to ask me, i would take a position like Australia on immigration. It is a nation of immigrants, and lets many immgrants in, but it draws a very very hard line in the sand that is not crossed.

    This is not some fringe view, it’s not xenophobic either. Few if any americans are completely against immigrations. But this experiment america had since Kennedy liberalized the immigration code 40 years ago has been a complete and utter failure for the average american citize, but has been great for a guy like me who makes a lot of money and lives in a big city. But my day-to-day QOL should not be driving factor behind increased immigration.

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  236. We could probably endlessly debate whether or not the lower wages are a net benefit to the economy or not in the form of a lower cost of living. Personally I believe that driving down wages helps the cost of living across the board but I’ll leave it to the economists to debate that. I also know far too many immigrants that have come here and totally kicked ass – arriving with nothing and now are worth a billion – or at least several million. Not surprise that half of all billion dollar startups were started by immigrants. I’d rather have the average immigrant here who is hungry as hell than some of the entitled Americans that take the country for granted. It takes a special kind of person to leave everything behind with nothing in your pocket and go to a country where you don’t speak the language – sometimes in a truck with no ventilation, sometimes in a shaky, overstuffed boat. I couldn’t do it for sure. I’ll welcome those people to this economy any day.

    We can disagree on all that but I’m interested in your number. How many legal immigrants do you think we should allow in this country ever year? 0? 1 MM? 10 MM?

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  237. “97% of DACA being employed means illegal immigrants are taking low wage jobs from Americans who would otherwise be working.”

    They aren’t taking anyone’s job. There aren’t a finite number of jobs in the country and businesses are constantly adding or removing jobs as demand for products/services increases or decreases. Like everyonne else, immigrants buy the products and services that these companies sell. They have chosen to be in this country when they have other options, easily available to them.

    Compare that to the 20% of uneducated American men who apparently sit around and play video games or use opiods. Those people aren’t going to get off their lazy butts and take a low paying job. They sit around blaming “liberals” and women and lamenting about about their woes on reddit instead of taking action to improve their lives. Usually, there is a woman supporting this behavior such as their mom or pathetic girlfriend.

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  238. ” Istanbul and Mexico City both now have populations over 20 million”

    I don’t see any source for Istanbul being over 15m, even. Thinking of Cairo?

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  239. “What areas in STL are gentrifying?”

    One could argue that the disappearance of poor residents, and the subsequent razing of the dilapidated buildings is a form of gentrification.

    Ain’t no one there to gentrify anything. The 2009 population estimate for STL was 356k; the census count the next year was 319k–over 10% less. Basically the same population as 1870, when it was the 4th largest US city (and that only bc Brooklyn was still separate from NY). Now it’s smaller than Aurora CO.

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  240. 200,000 immigrants per year. They must be doctors, engineers, scientists, researchers, computer programmers, or in some other very in demand field. No more box stackers or vegetable pickers. If farmers are facing labor shortages they can either pay a higher wage or automate their crop picking. The immigrants must come from countries that do not believe in some bat shit religion where women can’t drive, women must be covered head to toe, and beating the crap out of / raping women is ok.

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  241. Both Democrats and Republicans want unfettered immigration for different reasons. The political power structure on the right just want to satisfy their corporate lobbyist demands for lower wage employees. The political power on the left is just looking for new voters.

    I don’t know anyone who is against LEGAL immigration. Immigration has to make sense for the country given we have limited resources. No country can have open borders, otherwise you are no longer a country.

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  242. Russ,

    The higher wage argument argues against even legal immigration. At least one person here said no more than 200K/ year and all high skilled. I’m curious what number HD would limit it to.

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  243. Gary, anytime you raise supply you are putting pressure on wages. However, I don’t think anyone is crazy enough to believe there should be no immigration. Immigration is necessary and a benefit, but there has to be limitations. I don’t have the answer. 250-500k sounds about right imho. Quick google search says 1 million immigrate legally each year, but 60% of that number are people who are already here.

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  244. I think the country would be better off debating the number instead of making this a binary debate. The problem with the binary debate is that one person is saying they don’t want 2 MM coming in every year and the other person is thinking they are saying they don’t want anyone coming in. Because that’s what the current debate sounds like to me. Like…these 800K DACA folks came in over what period of time? It’s nothing.

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  245. Congress will pass the dream act and everything will come to pass

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  246. Gary, that would require both sides behaving like adults and having a logical and rational conversation. We know that will never happen. Pretty much every political topic becomes binary because of sound bites in the media.

    I think the vast majority knows there is a middle ground, but that doesn’t win elections or get headlines.

    Think about any topic. Right says the left is taking their guns and creating FEMA camps. Left says right supports school shootings. Right says left is creating death panels. Left says Right wants to little kids with cancer to die. We can go on and on…

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  247. “I’d rather have the average immigrant here who is hungry as hell than some of the entitled Americans that take the country for granted. ”

    That entitled american will take a bullet for you if drafted while the immigrant will scurry away to their home country. They were also born in America which according to the 14th and 15th amendments, actually means something. I would never take an immigrant over a native born, even if you woudl consider them lazy and entitled; I say they are just disenfranchised from the capitalism system because 20,000,000 legal and illegal immigrants have taken their jobs in the last 20 years at a lower wage.

    As for low wages being better for the economy, that’s a bunch of baloney that even economists don’t argue. Switerland, Austraila, Japan etc all have high wages and provide high quality of life. The third world is full of low wages like Romania, Mexico, Bangladesh, and the low wages do not translate to qualify of life.

    As for exact figures, I say pre 1970’s levels, so between 200-600k per year. Right now america is at more than 1,000,000 legal immigrants and it’s been that way for decades now. Right now there are 42.4 million foreign born immigrants living in the united states of which 10.5 million of those are considered illegal.

    This illegal number is ridiculously low despite what Pew says and defies logic. The border patrol has appended over 30 million people in the last 30 years. that’s just the illegals they caught, and yes, some may have been repeat offenders. Now with better border control they are still apprehending nearly half a million a year. How many are getting through? No one really knows the figure of illegals, but it’s not 11,000,000.

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  248. “the immigrant will scurry away to their home country”

    Like Trump’s grandfather, in reverse!

    “Right now america is at more than 1,000,000 legal immigrants and it’s been that way for decades now.”

    If by “decades” you mean 1, I guess. Real numbers are here:

    https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/yearbook/2015/table1

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  249. “some may have been repeat offenders”

    Some *were certainly* repeats.

    It “may be” that 1/3 or more of that count are repeats. It “may be” that there were only about 10m, who averaged being caught 3 times each.

    A *large percentage* of those caught once (or more) likely eventually got through, too. It “may be” that all of those who got through were caught an average of 3 times each, and all of the border control was essentially for naught.

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  250. You don’t do immigration law whereas I have more than a passing familiarity with it. The average number of green card granted per year since 1989, which is 26 years, is 1,013,311 per year, which a dip in the mid 1990’s after a few gangbuster years in the early 90’s. And that’s just green card holders.

    Green card awards however does not reflect immigration figures – that just reflects the number of people who are successful. In many cases you have to live here for two years to even get a card, such as with fiancee visa, and shorter or longer depending on other issues. So that is not an accurate number. There are currently 970,000 pending deportation orders (like that illegal lady who had five children here, sucked the system dry, and now lives in the church rectory); and there are 617,000 pending immigration cases.

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  251. ” It “may be” that all of those who got through were caught an average of 3 times each, and all of the border control was essentially for naught.”

    Yeah, it was that they only caught 10,000,000 million people three times each; and assuming a 1/3 ratio – one offender caught for every three that got through w/o being caught – that means there are 30,000,000 illegal immigrants here now. All pew can do is estimate based upon sources. The fact is nobody knows the true number of illegals.

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  252. “one offender caught for every three that got through w/o being caught – that means there are 30,000,000 illegal immigrants here now. ”

    You misread what I wrote. I hypothesized that it “may be” that there were a total of 10 million mexicans and central americans who attempted to enter the US illegally along the southern border. Each of them was caught–ON AVERAGE–3 times, but all of them eventually got through, and that covers everything–the 30 million detained, and the 10 +/- million who are here.

    There is zero question that some number were caught multiple times trying to cross.

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  253. “green card granted per year”

    That is NOT what you wrote. You wrote:

    “Right now america is at more than 1,000,000 legal immigrants”

    The number of legal immigrants per year is NOT the same as the number of green card issuances per year.

    Since you’re so smart about Immigration Law, I have to assume that you are writing with an intent to deceive. For everyone else, I would refer you to here:

    https://www.numbersusa.com/content/learn/illegal-immigration/seven-amnesties-passed-congress.html

    to see that a substantial number of those green cards were issued to amnestied illegal immigrants.

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  254. an amnestied illegal alien becomes a legal green card immigrant. there’s no intent to deceive. Even that article back in 2009 says that the amnesties lead to 12-20 million additional illegal immigrants. For once anon(tfo) we are arguing the same thing, we have no idea how many legal immigrants are here but it’s probably alot, at least 11,000,000, and probably a lot, lot more.

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  255. sorry, we don’t know how many ILLEGAL immigrants there are! Well guys I have to fly my learjet to Miami to take care of some of my biz with my 100 foot yacht before the hurricane hits, so our discussions about illegal immigration will stop for a little while. see y’all later!

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  256. “we are arguing the same thing”

    No, we’re not. You want to reduce the cap on the number of legal immigrants to less than 600k per year, and ignore the present and future illegals, but then you count amnestied illegals as “legal” immigrants, which is a sleight of word that very “progressive”, which, from contxt, means it’s disingenuous.

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  257. Where is the proof that immigrants are taking jobs that Americans both want and are qualified to take? Our economy is fluid and bringing in more immigrants also means more jobs because you have to fill the needs of more people.

    “That entitled american will take a bullet for you if drafted while the immigrant will scurry away to their home country.”

    Where is the proof to back this up? You don’t have to be a citizen to join the US military and the military has a history of allowing immigrants to enlist. This article discusses immigrants joining the US military during WWII. It appears that about 300,000 immigrants joined the US military during WWII:

    https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/History%20and%20Genealogy/Our%20History/INS%20History/WWII/INSMRev1948.10.pdf

    The entitled American is not going to take a bullet for anyone. Heck, I wouldn’t be willing to join the military, let alone take a bullet for anyone. These uneducated white males we discussed could join the military at any time, but they choose not to join.

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  258. “As for low wages being better for the economy, that’s a bunch of baloney that even economists don’t argue. Switerland, Austraila, Japan etc all have high wages and provide high quality of life. The third world is full of low wages like Romania, Mexico, Bangladesh, and the low wages do not translate to qualify of life.”

    You have to look at the GDP per capita, the cost of living, and wages. Switzerland and Japan have a huge cost of living so what good do the higher wages do them? And economists do argue about this because there are all kinds of estimates being thrown around about the economic impact of sending a few million illegal immigrants back to their home countries. It’s not a pretty picture.

    As for the impact of immigrants taking low paying jobs…it’s definitely complicated. Life gets worse for the people who would otherwise have those jobs but the cost of living goes down for everyone else, including the people whose jobs are directly impacted. Housing is a great example. Construction costs would definitely go up without immigrants.

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  259. I patently reject the assertion that deporting people would result in lower unemployment.

    Anyone who has spent the last year strung out playing video games isn’t jumping back into the employment pool any time soon.

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  260. “That entitled american will take a bullet for you if drafted while the immigrant will scurry away to their home country.”

    long time, first time.

    homedelete, we probably circulate in similar social circles(bison 00, rambler 03) but the only guy i know who served in a combat unit said close to half the guys who served with him were hispanic. Real life is different from playing counterstrike on drugs.

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  261. hispanic should read hispanic immigrant

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  262. “Construction costs would definitely go up without immigrants.”

    But is it fair, moral, or ethical for Americans to accept cheap labor off the backs of third world wages? Isn’t this exactly what Qatar and other middle eastern countries do when they import foreign workers and yet it’s unethical for them, but OK for us to do the same?

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  263. “I patently reject the assertion that deporting people would result in lower unemployment. Anyone who has spent the last year strung out playing video games isn’t jumping back into the employment pool any time soon.”

    You can reject whatever you want but that doesn’t make it right. Smokers patently reject the advice of their doctors every time they light up a smoke.

    These ‘strung out video game’ playing bums aren’t going to do it for third world or under the table wages. I have distant family members who have the choice of working for $8.25 an hour at CVS or not working at all, and they’ve chosen not to work at all. I don’t blame them. Quite frankly, I don’t blame them.

    My own father, above and beyond the relatives above, and although outside of the traditional working age demo, did laborer type work and when he got too old for it, he looked around at the unskilled labor market and saw nothing but low wages, so he retired, collects his paltry SS and watches TV all. It’s better than working for minimum wage at Home Depot.

    Take it one step father back, my own grandfather had a job at the animals when they used to take care of that stuff more locally. He did the manual labor and earned enough money to take care of 6 children and put some through college. He owned a home, a car, and his wife stayed at home. Those jobs have all moved to rural areas and they hire legal and illegal immigrants and pay them $14.00 an hour, which is probably 1/3rd in today’s dollars what my grandfather used to make when he was unionized 40-50 years ago.

    And the other unspoken truth about this situation is that a large % of the video game playing strung out unemployed working age male is that he isn’t addicted to opiiods in some rural area, he’s more likely to be an african american male of working age in an urban. I believe that given the right opportunities, the gang life/video game life would be less attractive if the were more decent wage paying jobs, better than serving burgers at mcdonalds for $8.25 an hour. But those good jobs are gone, authmated, or have been replaced by low wage immigrants.

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  264. “But is it fair, moral, or ethical for Americans to accept cheap labor off the backs of third world wages?”

    Not only is it fair but these people are better off. We know this simply because they have decided that this is better for them than the life they had and they accept these jobs with enthusiasm. We are reducing global wealth inequality.

    You have two people. One is willing to work enthusiastically for $8/ hour and another who would rather play video games. Who deserves the job more?

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  265. Construction costs are through the roof right now due to labor shortages. If we restrict immigration even more, good luck. Glad I own now.

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  266. hd stated “..there’s no intent to deceive..” which a line liars use along w/stating “Well to tell you the truth..” or “To be honest..”

    Not sure if hd was drunk @ 1:07 pm but his post is poorly written/ hard to understand. It does reveal unintended truth abt hd – like helmut & most R bigots he believes “the other unspoken truth .. is that a large % of the video game playing strung out unemployed working age male is that he isn’t addicted to opiiods in some rural area, he’s more likely to be an african american male of working age in an urban.” I know hd, hh & R’s want us to believe that & of course it’s a lie. SNAP recepients for example are 40% white, 25% black, 10% hispanic.

    While ‘proud to be R’ hd “doesn’t blame them” ie his family members choosing to suck on gov’t teat rather than work, Repub’s (other than hd) “are conducting a review of nutrition assistance with an eye toward figuring out how to nudge more people into the workforce. .. Republicans have lamented that a growing share of recipients are able-bodied adults without children.”
    No offense hd but they’re talking abt your ‘distant family’.

    I’m not sure what “my own grandfather had a job at the animals when they used to take care of that stuff more locally” could mean but imo there’s no shortage of jobs available here & elsewhere. Many available jobs suck & also pay poorly at first. But ime producers always get taken care of/ get raises/ get promoted while new hires who turn out to be slackers/whiners/shirkers are first to get let go. Maybe u could hire them to clean & gas your lear jet?

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  267. “It’s better than working for minimum wage at Home Depot.”

    So why not just raise the minimum wage to, say, $20/hr, enough to make it worthwhile for Americans to work. Then there would be no jobs for the immigrants and they would stop coming to this country on their own. No need to change the immigration policy at all.

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  268. Raising the minimum wage will almost certainly reduce the number of unskilled jobs available and increase the supply of workers looking for those jobs. Suddenly high school graduates who are not working will be drawn into the workforce and replace the high school dropouts. No good can come from screwing with the market.

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  269. “Raising the minimum wage will almost certainly reduce the number of unskilled jobs available and increase the supply of workers looking for those jobs. Suddenly high school graduates who are not working will be drawn into the workforce and replace the high school dropouts. No good can come from screwing with the market.”

    I agree with this. Let the market set the hourly rate. I don’t want to see prices rise because employers hiring unskilled labor are now suddenly forced to pay people middle class wages. Unskilled jobs should be taken by teenagers who want to earn some extra money or by people new to the workforce who need a first job. A cashier does not deserve to make $40,000 a year. What I think is likely going to happen is that these low skilled jobs will end up being automated. I would rather pay someone to create and maintain the technology to automate these positions than pay a low level employee who is going chat with me or expect a tip.

    I think the typical layabout type man is being supported by a woman. These men aren’t usually getting public assistance since they rarely have primary custody of their bastard children. Woe to the idiotic woman who marries one of these saps. An acquaintance of mine married a perpetual student and as part of the divorce she had to pay for another year of schooling for his lazy ass.

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  270. “I think the typical layabout type man is being supported by a woman. These men aren’t usually getting public assistance since they rarely have primary custody of their bastard children. Woe to the idiotic woman who marries one of these saps. An acquaintance of mine married a perpetual student and as part of the divorce she had to pay for another year of schooling for his lazy ass.”

    Who are these pathetic men, and even worse – who marries them?

    A disgrace.

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  271. “Who are these pathetic men, and even worse – who marries them?”

    Wrong question. I wanna know how I become one of them.

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  272. “Unskilled jobs should be taken by teenagers who want to earn some extra money or by people new to the workforce who need a first job.”

    Jenny- is an “unskilled job” taking Home Run Inn frozen pizzas on the west side and putting them in the plastic wrap and boxes so they can be shipped to grocery stores? Because just a few months ago, those workers were getting minimum wage (which has slowly been rising.) Before Chicago raised it, 35 year old women who worked there made $8 an hour.

    What’s a living wage? Who should get it?

    True, in a tight job market, that living wage would HAVE to rise (as we have already seen.) Farmers are paying $17-$20 an hour for pickers with 401k and insurance in California and STILL can’t get anyone. Dairy farmers in Wisconsin are paying $13 and also can’t get anyone but, for them, they claim if they paid more, they would lose money so they can’t pay more without dramatically jacking up the price of milk, cheese, butter etc.

    The truck industry can’t find anyone to drive (some of it is because so many can’t pass the drug test). They pay above minimum and will pay to train you but there’s thousands of openings. Amazon is paying above minimum at its distribution centers.

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  273. “Raising the minimum wage will almost certainly reduce the number of unskilled jobs available and increase the supply of workers looking for those jobs. Suddenly high school graduates who are not working will be drawn into the workforce and replace the high school dropouts. No good can come from screwing with the market.”

    Did that happen here?

    Chicago raised its minimum wage last year. Went to $10. This July it went to $11. That hasn’t stopped businesses from posting “Help Wanted” signs all over the city. Go to any Epic Burger, Walgreens, Starbucks and you’ll see the “we’re hiring” signs. Haven’t seen a dramatic change in our unemployment rate etc.

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  274. “No good can come from screwing with the market.”

    This also includes:

    A ban on child labor
    Anti-discrimation laws
    Overtime rules
    OSHA

    I could go on and on.

    Anyone who thinks “the market” controls our labor force is dreaming. If it did, the 10 year olds would still be in the factories.

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  275. “So why not just raise the minimum wage to, say, $20/hr, enough to make it worthwhile for Americans to work.”

    Because no pay raise is gone make Americans take those jobs picking blueberries in Michigan. That’s why.

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  276. “SNAP recepients for example are 40% white, 25% black, 10% hispanic.”

    Not just SNAP. Those abusing the social security disability system in states like Alabama and Kentucky are overwhelmingly white and live in rural areas. Those in the cities claiming the benefits are actually a small number.

    Rural Americans are using SSDI as a permanent unemployment check and because, other than service sector jobs, there aren’t any jobs out in those areas.

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  277. “I have distant family members who have the choice of working for $8.25 an hour at CVS or not working at all, and they’ve chosen not to work at all. I don’t blame them. Quite frankly, I don’t blame them. ”

    Wow HD. The victim mentality is just oozing from this statement. You’re acting like they didn’t get a “free” public school education (at least through high school) and that there aren’t dozens of cheap community colleges where they can get an associate degree (at a minimum) to better themselves. Or heck, join the military. The military taught several of my cousins high tech skills, so much so that one works for a big tech company now even though he never went to college.

    I’m so tired of all the whining. First it was that the Mexicans were taking their jobs. And now, they apparently are too good to make $11 an hour (in Chicago) working at the CVS. Yet all the opportunities of this country are just laid out in front of them waiting to be taken.

    Sad!

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  278. “Like…these 800K DACA folks came in over what period of time? It’s nothing.”

    Probably over the course of 30 years Gary because some are like 35 and were 5 when they were brought here.

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  279. “At least one person here said no more than 200K/ year and all high skilled. I’m curious what number HD would limit it to.”

    This would crush our economy.

    We need the new blood and labor pool. Already, growth has slowed because the Baby Boomers are retiring. No way to replace the largest generation until the Millennials reach peak productivity (another 15 years or so- when they’re in their 40s.)

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  280. “The political power on the left is just looking for new voters.”

    So you are conceding that the Republican Party completely blew their chance with Hispanic voters?

    It didn’t have to be that way. In the 1990s, Hispanics voted overwhelmingly for Republicans. It’s how the Bushes came to power in two big states. What went wrong? Mexican voters are, historically, conservative.

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  281. “They must be doctors, engineers, scientists, researchers, computer programmers, or in some other very in demand field. No more box stackers or vegetable pickers. If farmers are facing labor shortages they can either pay a higher wage or automate their crop picking.”

    They just let in, I believe, something like 25,000 temporary visa holders to pick fruit and vegetables in the fields because they couldn’t find anyone to do it. Can’t automate the peach trees. Not yet.

    Heck, even Trump uses the worker visas to hire at Mar-a-Lago because he claims he can’t any Americans to work as part-time waiters there (since it’s seasonal.) There are visas given out to European teenage workers to work part-time at the seasonal amusement parks too. Why?

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  282. “I don’t see any source for Istanbul being over 15m, even. Thinking of Cairo?”

    No. Have you ever flown in there? They have cameras on the bottom of the plane and the houses go on for about an hour before landing. Maybe they aren’t all in the Istanbul city limits so they aren’t “officially” Istanbul. It is enormous and they’ve all come from the rural areas in the last 30 years.

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  283. “97% of DACA being employed means illegal immigrants are taking low wage jobs from Americans who would otherwise be working.”

    Why are you assuming DACAs don’t have regular middle class jobs? They have schooling. There are 900 of them in the military, for goodness sakes. Some are doctors, architects, nurses etc.

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  284. “Maybe some of american’s opiod problem stems from the fact that they can’t find a living wage.”

    This is true. Alcoholism rates have been high in the rural areas for a long, long time. No different.

    But that wouldn’t explain the opioid crisis raging through cities like Naperville (mostly well off).

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  285. Sabrina, obviously there are legitimate regulations but price controls are a totally different matter. On the one hand you lament about a living wage and then you talk about how there is a labor shortage and people can’t pass the drug test. The solution is not to raise the minimum wage but for people to take the higher paying jobs. But it isn’t the responsibility of Home Run Inn to pay you more because you can’t pass the drug test to get a better job. Or getting a higher paying job might require a move. I saw statistics that showed that lower income people were less likely to move than higher income people. I don’t know what’s the cause here or what’s the effect but that’s part of the problem. We need a mobile work force. I’ve also read that some people don’t like to move for jobs because they don’t like to leave family. How many people on Cribchatter that make good money ever let family stand in the way of a move? I never did.

    If those dairy farmers can’t pay more because prices are too low that problem will soon fix itself won’t it? With low prices and a labor shortage supply is going to fall isn’t it?

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  286. sabrina, let’s just say for arguments sake that america does need these new workers … but the issue i have is that the demands of corporations and corporate america shouldn’t drive american migration policy. it’s up the the american people to determine immigration policy and american spoke loud and clear last november that it wanted a want down south and less immigratiion policies. what happens when there is a recession and those immigrants are competing for work with native americans? what happens to ordinary americans when wages are driven down as a result of cheap foreign labor? what if americansjust don’t want to share the roads and school and hospitals with third world migrants? don’t americans have a say too??? to me it’s just so short sighted to say drive immigration policy on the temporary needs of business for labor.

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  287. Actually a strong majority voted of people against Trump and his insane, nativism.

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  288. The Istanbul metro area is almost 15Million people. It’s massive.

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  289. “They have cameras on the bottom of the plane and the houses go on for about an hour before landing.”

    That allows you to count to 20m people? The cameras are that high tech of infrared?

    Every single source has metro Istanbul at about 15m right now. Look it up.

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  290. “The Istanbul metro area is almost 15Million people. It’s massive.”

    But it’s not 20m, which was the assertion:

    “Istanbul and Mexico City both now have populations over 20 million”

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  291. “lower income people were less likely to move than higher income people. I don’t know what’s the cause here … I’ve also read that some people don’t like to move for jobs because they don’t like to leave family”

    Couple of thoughts on that:

    1. Moving takes money. whether the cost to move your stuff, or to buy new stuff when you get there, it’s not cheap for someone past college-ish age.

    2. Leaving family usually means leaving free childcare among other things. So it isn’t just emotional attachments, but another (perceived, at least) money thing.

    3. A lot of the people who don’t want to move are the people who have never gone much of anywhere it their lives, or who had a bad experience when going somewhere new. Fear of the ‘strange’ is normal, but it isn’t economically efficient.

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  292. Anon,

    Yes, that’s what I was alluding to with regard to cause and effect. Nevertheless, we should not be subsidizing people staying put when we need them to move. In fact, if anything we should be subsidizing their moving.

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  293. No one should stay in a minimum wage job forever. There is something wrong with someone who simply stays in a minimum wage job year after year without moving up. Go back to school. Learn a trade. Show your boss that you are valuable by going above and beyond.

    After grad school, I was in a very low wage contractor in a corporate office. The pay was pathetic and I had the nagging feeling that they were taking advantage of me, but I needed the money. It wasn’t minimum wage, but I certainly couldn’t afford a nice apartment on that wage.

    They liked me enough that they created an entirely new position for me because I impressed them. It doesn’t even take that much to impress people when you’re in one of these low paying jobs. Having basic problem solving skills, showing up on time, and working until the job is done is enough to impress most corporate drones.

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  294. “Who are these pathetic men, and even worse – who marries them?”

    It boggles my mind. A friend works with a woman who has a grown man living in her house for free. He doesn’t help with chores or contribute anything of value. This woman keeps the guy around because she likes having the companionship. She probably can’t do any better as she’s a very unpleasant person who only still has her job because the company is afraid she’ll sue if they fire her.

    The woman who married the perpetual student didn’t realize that he was going to be a perpetual student. She thought he was working his way towards his Phd and would eventually finish. She divorced him because he told her that he never intended to work and wanted her to pay for his schooling indefinitely.

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  295. It is bizarre, my friend has a cousin who lives in a much smaller Midwestern major city and she is freakin gorgeous, smart, really good career, and is freaking out because she’s approaching 40 and doesn’t have a baby yet so she’s got this live in stoner loser with no job even boyfriend now… as everyone else apparently in that town is taken already… makes me sad for her

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  296. “A lot of the people who don’t want to move are the people who have never gone much of anywhere it their lives, or who had a bad experience when going somewhere new. Fear of the ‘strange’ is normal, but it isn’t economically efficient.”

    Who wants to leave family, friends, roots, familiarity, all to transfer to some unknown middle class job in a far away city? And what if that new job sucks? And don’t forget that for most regular middle class jobs, employers hire local people. it’s difficult to find a job unless you are actually in town, looking for a job. Company X isn’t flying you to Denver to interview for a $56,000 a year job if you live in Akron OH. So most middle class employees have to quit their job, move to a new town, live off their savings until they can find a new job. And they have to rent a place in the new town too. Try applying for a mortgage for a house without a job. It’s so easy for east coast liberals to say “oh just move to where the jobs are” when they have no idea how the real world works.

    Tone: roughly 66,000,000 Clinton to 63,000,000 Trump. 63,000,000 million people voted for that beautiful wall that will eventually get built on the southern border. I know of quite a few people who voted for Trump for the sole reason that they wanted the wall. His nativism isn’t insane, it’s popular and what tens of million of americans want.

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  297. Jenny,

    I hate to say this, but it’s not 1965 anymore, where high school kids work minimum wage jobs all summer, and the down-on-his or her-luck american can grab himself by his bootstraps and work his way out of a minimum wage job.

    “After grad school, I was in a very low wage contractor in a corporate office.”

    Just listen to yourself for a moment. Not everyone has those opportunities. Back in 1960, when america manufactured things and before corporate america offshored any job that wasn’t literally nailed to American soil, it was possible to start out as a worker bee and work your way up the ladder. These days, that ladder is broken, and the opportunity to move up are gone. Many of those supervisor jobs or managerial jobs have been cut, offshored, or automated out of existence. I have quite a few extended family members as I discussed above who are un/under employed. I truly believe that in a different time, they woudl have been able to get decent jobs that would pay for their families, and work their way up the ladder, or at least obtain a union wage. Hell, I have an unionized uncle at the major airlies who earns LESS today than he did 20 years ago when he started. In nominal dollars too – due to job cuts, pay cuts, reduced hours, banning overtime, and many of those jobs are overseas. He tells me that even aircraft mechanics, which used to be a good paying job, have all been moved overseas too. It’s cheaper to fly the planes to a central american country, train the local population, and fly them back, rather than play americans to do the work. these were good paying skilled blue collar jobs that paid a living wage for families all over america, and they are disappearing so corporate america can save a few bucks and the CEOs can get bigger bonuses.

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  298. Millions of people like Nazism. Millions of people love being controlled by Islamic states of various stripes.

    Just because a large group of complete and utter idiots want something, does not mean that the intelligent people of the world should give it to them.

    Those who want the wall can go pay for it themselves. Maybe we can dump all of those people on the Mexican side of the wall while we’re at it and let them die in the desert.

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  299. “Millions of people like Nazism. Millions of people love being controlled by Islamic states of various stripes. ”

    ” Maybe we can dump all of those people on the Mexican side of the wall while we’re at it and let them die in the desert.”

    You’re TDS is seriously affecting your ability to think clearly.

    You attack nazism, and ISIS, but then advocate a mass genocide against Trump voted.

    You just suggested that you kill millions of americans because of their political views. WTF is wrong with you people.

    I’m done with this thread, its too difficult to have rational conversation with those afflicted with TDS.

    THREAD CLOSED.

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  300. hd after a few early am snorts? “..it’s up the the american people to determine immigration policy and american spoke loud and clear last november that it wanted a want down south and less immigratiion policies.”

    Is “it wanted a want down south” a translation for ‘covfefe’?

    I agree elections matter hd but “american spoke loud and clear last nov” ignores fact that # of votes matter to non-mathematically challenged.

    65,844,610 (48.2%) voted to support D immigration policies & 62,979,636 (46.1%) supported T’s ‘plans’. 2.86 million less votes! (yes dt won in archaic elec. college which had important reasons for existing 240 years ago, primarily protecting legality of owning slaves (who counted for 3/5 person for electoral vote purposes).)

    “what happens when there is a recession and those immigrants are competing for work with native americans? what happens to ordinary americans when wages ..” Observant Americans witnessed “what happens when there is a recession” less than 10 yrs ago – millions of immigrants left US/ went home. Particularly far less E European or Mexican construction workers around.

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  301. “It is bizarre, my friend has a cousin who lives in a much smaller Midwestern major city and she is freakin gorgeous, smart, really good career, and is freaking out because she’s approaching 40 and doesn’t have a baby yet so she’s got this live in stoner loser with no job even boyfriend now… as everyone else apparently in that town is taken already… makes me sad for her”

    Men in her age bracket are taken by younger models

    A guy in his 40’s with a career and in decent shape has women beating down his door

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  302. hd posted “.. I have an unionized uncle at the major airlies who earns LESS today than he did 20 years.. It’s cheaper to fly the planes to a central american country, train the local population, and fly them back, rather than play americans to do the work. these were good paying skilled blue collar jobs that paid a living wage for families all over america, and they are disappearing so corporate america can save a few bucks and the CEOs can get bigger bonuses.”

    I agree w/first premise as I’ve witnessed it happening for yrs to long time friends. But it’s dt’s most significant supporters who reap the financial rewards. U r delusional imo if you believe dt’ll support policies to repatriate significant # of better paying jobs if it costs more for likes of Koch bros & Anschutz.

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  303. Yeah, the Koch’s are bringing in immigrants to run their refineries and do all their process engineering

    this thread has taken a turn for the stupid. Dog whistles for everyone…

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  304. johnyu: “a guy in 40’s w/career & in decent shape has women beating down his door” & next posted “this thread has taken turn for the stupid.” said the bus driver. Sounds like hh posting under new alias. Here’s a non-Penthouse Forum quote for ju:

    “If only half the things the left has said about the Kochs were true, it might be imaginable to call their operation right wing. But the reality is they merely fight for fewer regulations on the free market and lower taxes. In other words, they’re libertarians.
    And like a lot of libertarians (and “conservatives” for that matter), they are naturally supportive of granting amnesty to illegal immigrants because they believe it will be good for business. As Dave Weigel of Slate has noted, “the libertarian brothers have always put their money behind immigration reform.”
    While the primary impetus …is to fight programs that they perceive as intrusive on the omnipotent free market…, a significant part of their network is dedicated to promoting mass immigration to America and supporting measures that would grant permanent residency to immigrants who came to our country illegally…. “

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  305. Someone’s started day drinking

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  306. All this trade war, protectionism crap would destroy many more american’s well being than a few jobs that are done cheaper in Hungary, India or Brazil. The economic illiteracy is surprising.

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  307. HD, 54% of americans voted against Donnie.

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  308. And 51.5% voted against Clinton. What’s your point?

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  309. hd,

    checkout the essays or youtube videos of George Borjas. His view that immigration adversely affects low-skilled natives is very similar to yours.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_J._Borjas

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  310. Donnie has no mandate, with 46% of the vote and now a 35% approval rating. The worst ever at this point in a presidency. No one like him but racists and the grotesquely wealthy.

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  311. Many, especially rural, Americans are happy to punch in in the morning, do their repetitive task for 8 hours, then clock out and go home. They have no desire to climb the corporate ladder and there’s nothing wrong with that. They just want a living wage to do their job, provide for their family, and get back to their lives. No one should be disparaged for not wanting to climb the corporate ladder.

    I’d bet a huge number of rural trump voters fall into this category. Rural areas had local employers that allowed them to do just this, but those jobs have been eliminated due to outsourcing/immigrants/automation and trump promised to reverse that. They are not looking to climb the corporate ladder and get rich; they just want a steady living wage to support their families.

    What these people don’t realize is that neither trump, nor anyone else can actually grant them their desires. The economy has changed. The days of graduating HS, getting a job with local factory that paid a moderate living wage, and retiring 40 years later from that company with a modest pension are gone. Forever.

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  312. “What these people don’t realize is that neither trump, nor anyone else can actually grant them their desires. The economy has changed. The days of graduating HS, getting a job with local factory that paid a moderate living wage, and retiring 40 years later from that company with a modest pension are gone. Forever.”

    This is not true, companies have sent jobs overseas because it has been financially advantageous for them to do so. It’s like saying Amazon, Apple won’t pay US taxes because of tax havens, OH WELL. Remove the tax havens, and they’ll start paying taxes. the EU is looking at tech right now due to some pretty bogus tax rates in some EU member countries.

    Likewise for american jobs, a reverse of some of these policies would go a long way towards bringing some of these jobs back, or helping to create new ones. America isn’t forever doomed to send so many of its jobs overseas – reduce the incentives to do so – and they’ll come back.

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  313. wojo, i’ve heard of that guy before, although I haven’t read him too much.

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  314. hd, here’s a nice intro to Borjas (3700 words), mostly about him with some quotes from him, promoting his latest book (which is excellent) ‘We Wanted Workers’:

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/harvards-george-j-borjas/

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  315. “Donnie has no mandate, with 46% of the vote and now a 35% approval rating. The worst ever at this point in a presidency. No one like him but racists and the grotesquely wealthy.”

    How about this: with 46% of Americans voting for Trump, a near majority of people want his policies put into place, and remaining slight majority has a bad case of TDS. BTW his approval rate was at 46% I saw the other day, it was a 35% so far. Trump is doing a fantastic job as president. Illegal immigration is down, his response to the hurricane has been excellent, we have an honorable supreme court justice, the district courts are getting judges appointed. I can’t wait for him to turn the whacko 9th circuit red. and we just got a debt ceiling bill passed with the help of Democrats too. Trump actually got both the house and senate to vote on repealing Obamacare, it’s just too bad congress can’t get it’s act together to do anything useful, but that’s not trumps fault. He’s gotten rid of DACA. The list of great things goes on an on. There’s a chain forwarded mail that gets forwarded that has a list of 100 great things trump has done in his presidency. he’s delivering exactly as promised, within his powers in the constitution, to the people who voted for him. that’s why few if anyone who voted for him would recast their vote.

    I get that Trump is toxic in Cook COunty, but out in the real world, he’s well received. Its good for me to post this stuff, to get you all out of your echo chambers

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  316. and here’s a short piece (1400 words) by Borjas that’ll give you some ammo:

    http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/09/trump-clinton-immigration-economy-unemployment-jobs-214216

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  317. “a reverse of some of these policies would go a long way towards bringing some of these jobs back, or helping to create new ones”

    If only it were that simple. Take this as an example: http://www.enquirer.com/editions/1998/07/27/loc_huffy27.html

    Lets say economic policy is changed to make it less advantageous to use Asian/Mexican labor and Huffy reopens the plant they closed almost 20 years ago. That reopened factory isn’t likely to employ 650 people, more like 150. And the jobs would be to babysit the robots doing the actual work. There’s still a net loss of 500 jobs there. I’d hardly call that “a long way towards bringing some of these jobs back.” And that $50 walmart bicycle is now $70.

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  318. Mary Mitchell and Laura Washington both complained in their latest columns about the attention paid to ‘Dreamers’ at the expense (in their view) of Chicago’s native black unemployed. Their opinions would have benefitted from citing Borjas’s research. But we know too well, as Mitchell reported:

    “47 percent of 20- to 24-year-old black men in Chicago and 44 percent in Illinois were out of school and out of work in 2014, compared to 20 percent of Hispanic men and 10 percent of white men in the same age group.”

    http://chicago.suntimes.com/chicago-politics/mitchell-trump-fires-debate-on-whether-immigration-cost-blacks-jobs/

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  319. http://archive.boston.com/business/articles/2006/02/26/a_look_inside_the_wal_mart_business_model/

    Fred, it’s more complicated than just that. Wal-Mart’s billionaire’s take a lot of blame for this too. So does China’s MFN status. This is all a complicated problem that has taken a long time to get where we are, but throwing up our hands and saying “that’s capitalism!!!!” is not realistic either. LIke sabrina said above, if were didn’t have decent regulations, we’d still have child labor laws and 80 hour work weeks. But we can make it unprofitable for american corporations to hire and manufacture abroad, and give incentives to manufacture here, just the same way China sang the siren song and took all these jobs in the first place.

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  320. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/29/magazine/come-on-china-buy-our-stuff.html

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  321. HD, a 38% approval rating is not well received. Only a trumpkin would think that is good.

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx

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  322. wojo, but above, posters lamented that these drug addicted video game playing losers aren’t about to join the workforce anytime soon. They think they are talking about white rural trump voters but they conveniently forget that they are also degrading urban african-americans too.

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  323. You’re a day late and a dollar short T(ds)one:

    http://www.newsweek.com/trumps-approval-rating-just-bounced-back-worst-history-662550

    “According to a Rasmussen Reports poll released on September 10, Trump currently has a 46% approval rating, with 29% of likely voters polled stating they strongly approved of his performance.”

    I’m clearly one of the 29% of likely voters who strongly approve of his performance. but a guy like you with TDS is never going like anything Trump does. I never liked anything Obama did either and I always thought he did a bad job, if I had to rank his presidency it would be in the low 30’s of 45 presidents, higher than Buccannan and Harding, but below Bush I and II.

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  324. with 46% of Americans voting for Trump, a near majority of people want his policies put into place,

    Trump did not receive the votes of 46% of Americans, he got 46% of the votes cast in the 2016 election. Since turnout was around 55%, that means about 25% of eligible Americans voted for him.

    About 65% of Americans are eligible to vote. So, fewer than 20% of Americans voted for Trump.

    MATH!!

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  325. Where are the DACA recipients supposed to go? Many end up as immigrants in their own countries if forced to move back.

    I know one family who would have benefited from DACA. The family moved here in the 90s from Japan. The father was transferred to Chicago for work and they were here legally until the father left the mother and moved back to Japan suddenly. She was left with a mortgage, no job, and three kids. She had no money to send the kids to learn to read and write in Japanese (although, I’m not sure why she didn’t teach them herself). Being unable to read and write in Japanese has meant the oldest daughter has been unable to find work beyond menial jobs and was also unable to get into a Japanese university. The younger two struggled, but were lucky to get into international schools where they were taught to read and write Japanese as though they were foreigners.

    This was what it was like for someone who was in an educated, upper middle class family when she moved here. I can’t imagine what it’s like for someone whose parents are destitute when they arrive.

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  326. “with 46% of Americans voting for Trump,”

    Another case of TDS with you. Implicit in the discussion was that it was 46% of voting americans, not all of american.

    And fliping that around, it’s what 21% or 22% of all americans voted for Clinton? It’s an interesting factoid, but means little when the path to the presidency, as it’s been for 240 years, is the electoral college which Trump won handily and rightfully.

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  327. Implicit in the discussion was that it was 46% of voting americans, not all of american.

    We were talking about approval ratings and you brought up percentage who voted for Trump as a refutation. Surveys to determine approval ratings don’t distinguish between who voted and who didn’t. Sometimes they use pools of registered voters and sometimes they use “likely voters”.

    You were the one who compared apples to oranges.

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  328. Jenny,

    Where are the DACA recipients supposed to go?

    Home. They’re supposed to go home.

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  329. But is their birth country really home?

    It would be kinda like taking a child who was adopted at birth and thriving in NYC with adopted parents, and at 10 years old sending them “home” to rural Georgia to live with their birth parents. Exactly who’s best interest is that in?

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  330. “Home. They’re supposed to go home.”

    I don’t think many of them think of their birthplace as “home.” Some of them don’t even know they are “illegal aliens” until they are older. I can’t imagine what that must be like.

    There are no easy answers. I feel for these kids though and think they are good for the economy. On the other hand I admit that allowing everyone and anyone to come here easily would not be great either.

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  331. “But is their birth country really home?”

    Yes, it is their home. They are citizens of another country living here illegally, even if their parents brought them here young.

    Are they good for the country? Didn’t we just discuss that 50% of all african american men ages 20-24 are in school or not work? There’s 800,000 dreamer jobs being taken by illegal immigrants that could go to citizens who live in poverty or near poverty. But everyone wants to gloss over that fact. Keep in mind this is a trick question, there are no good, non-racist answer to any of these questions. Because 800,000 dreamer filled jobs means there are 800,000 fewer employed african americans aged 20-24.

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  332. Fred joins hd as another nattering nabob of negativism here. Huffy built crap bikes & earned its fate re our capitalist system (I owned one (a pos) in late ’60’s which cost only abt $10 less than my next bike, a much better Schwinn).

    What may make a difference going forward is exemplified by Allied Cycles, a startup bike co. making carbon bike frames in Little Rock AR. Allied appears likely to be successful via building better bikes sellable (either as either frames or fully assembled bikes) at sig. lower prices than bikes made by Giant, Trek, Specialized & Cannondale (who all manufacture & assemble in China & Taiwan). All bike cos. use same outside manufacturers for gears, wheels etc (ex: Shimano & also Chgo based SRAM). Allied’s co-founder previously founded Orbea USA which he sold after 15 yrs. He seized an opportunity to buy state of art equip to make composite frame parts for .10 on dollar @ a failed bike co.’s BK auction. Allied’s likely to employ 250-500 skilled & semi-skilled workers making carbon frames which can be sold at popular prices. What will move USA forward imo is focusing on cultivating & allowing entrepreneurs to create & flourish, not building walls & shortsightedly embracing protectionism. (NB bike sales are huge int’l market). That’s not to say US shouldn’t protect innovation/patents/intellectual rights by aggressively fighting international thieves (ie: see how orig. Schwinn died).

    https://www.outsideonline.com/2182251/your-next-carbon-bike-will-be-made-arkansas-instead-asia

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  333. hd’s crying crocodile tears for unemployed african americans on cc. Do you/ your law partnership reach out to unemployed AA’s to offer a job/first step up US ladder – someone’s gotta take court filings to Daley Ctr. Wadda’ crock (so to speak).

    Hey have any of your ‘distant fam’ member joined armed services to get discipline instilled, get educated, get training, direction etc.? I’m guessing no b/c they’ve decided agst risking taking bullet for US (and it’s more pleasurable for them to get high & get by? Which quite frankly you understand & support.) And it’s awful tough to convince even Uncle Sam they have any upside, huh?

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  334. SB, you just can’t help yourself. i don’t hate you SB but you clearly hate me and my family even though you don’t know me. i have no respect for you but i’m not a hater.

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  335. The other thing about your hate SB is that it’s so misplaced. I may BS about a lot of things anonymously on this board but what I’m about to tell you is the honest to god truth. I’ve got more active family duty members including first cousins than your liberal college educated snob of a family ever had. I’ve got two active duty cousins right now, one of whom is in Germany the other is in CA after 6 tours in Iraq/Afghanistan. I had a third cousin who served two tours in Iraq but she committed suicide in her bathroom a few weeks upon returning from tour in Iraq in the mid-2000’s. She spoke arabic fluently so she saw and did a lot of things that drive people to kill themselves. My brother served in the military, honorably discharged, and so did my uncle, my grandfather served in Korea, and all of them did so for your freedom.

    Now that’s something to remember on 9/11.

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  336. hd’s trolling me agin’. I don’t hate you hd – I don’t get how anyone from your background can buy that carnie barker dt’s BS hook, line & sinker. I don’t get why you believe people like me would buy it when you’re pushing dt’s lies & BS here. Imo u like to post lies (in add’n to repeating dt’s lies) & totally invented BS here for incomprehensible reasons – that I despise. Not a chance I’d believe u re ‘honest to god truthful this time’ description of a service minded family. I’ll never post my family’s ‘public service’ here b/c imo it’s irrelevant. I’m humored to read your characterization of me and/or my family as snobs. Imo unlike u I respond directly even if I believe u r trolling – I’m not ashamed of anything I believe in or anything I’m doing.

    I don’t post made up BS here – what’s in that for me? You (and other cc’rs) don’t agree w/my beliefs & that’s fine w/me. It’s America (although your guy apparently’d like US to get annexed by Russia & imo his most wealthy supporters are extremely envious of unbelievably obscene fortunes made by Putin’s buddies via plundering state assets w/Putin getting a cut – I think they wonder if they can replicate that biz model here.) I totally despise the hate filled lying sack of sh-t poster currently known as helmet hofer whom you emulate here a little more and more over time. Good day sir

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  337. “I’ve got more active family duty members including first cousins than your liberal college educated snob of a family ever had.”

    You have no idea what southbound’s military history is like. His ancestor could have been Eisenhower for all you know.

    If your family is so military oriented HD, why the whining and victimization about how your family relations have no choice but to not work or else it’s CVS at $8 an hour? Lol.

    I have NEVER heard that kind of whining from a true military family in my entire life.

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  338. HD…wtf dude.

    When did you get all liberal / republican on this BS. I have multiple cousins and family friends ( muslim kids ) that served / serve in various branches of the military. Hell, I considered it for a while.

    Don’t be a D**K dude.

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  339. “Didn’t we just discuss that 50% of all african american men ages 20-24 are in school or not work?”

    What are you talking about?

    The Dreamers are not taking their jobs. My god. We have a shortage in SO MANY areas. If you don’t have a job, it’s because you don’t want one. If they live at home with their mothers at age 22, then that’s what they choose to do.

    Oh- and all this brainwashing about the horrors of the inner cities when it’s the white rural people who are in true crisis is the biggest fake news out there. All you have to do is read this week in the life of the opioid crisis in Cincinnati. What a economic and social disaster. And this is happening everywhere.

    And, strangely, every person they profiled in this article is white.

    http://www.cincinnati.com/pages/interactives/seven-days-of-heroin-epidemic-cincinnati/

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  340. Is it my imagination or is this the most bizarre Cribchatter thread ever?

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  341. “It’s an interesting factoid, but means little when the path to the presidency, as it’s been for 240 years, is the electoral college which Trump won handily and rightfully.”

    Are you going to make this argument, hd, when the Dems win only like 6 states and take the White House? Could happen as soon as 2020 but most certainly by 2024. All you have to do is look at the demographics in the cities, the total loss of the Hispanic and black voters by the Republicans, and the numbers don’t add up in the largest states for the Republicans, including Texas and Florida.

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  342. SB: Don’t compare me to HH. That guy is a complete DB. you and I may differ in our political opinions, but neither of us are pieces of garbage like that guy HH.

    Riz: I’m glad to see you have family in the military too. Today is 9/11 and you should be proud they will take a bullet for our freedom.

    Sabrina: the demographics is destiny. I get it. Its just that i’ve been hearing that for a generation now. and it still hasn’t happened yet. Will it ever? I don’t know.

    gary: yes, somehow, this turned into a bizarre thread. interesting, but good for us to chat about this stuff once in a while. these are interesting times we live in.

    I can’t wait for the CC holiday party at underground this year.

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  343. “I can’t imagine what it’s like for someone whose parents are destitute when they arrive.”

    Jenny- why do you assume all DACAs were destitute?

    In Queens County, NY, 31% of those DACA eligible were Asian. Yes, nationally, it’s around 77% from either Mexico or Central America, but it can have big regional differences.

    “Looking more closely, however, several counties piqued our interest because they have a much higher share of Asian, South American, Caribbean, or African DACA youth than the nation overall. For instance, youth from Asian countries represent 31 percent of the potentially eligible population in Queens County, New York, compared to 10 percent nationally. In Broward County, Florida, the share of South Americans in the total DACA population (49 percent) is nearly ten times larger than the national average (5 percent). Among the 36 counties we profile, two—Montgomery and Prince George’s counties in suburban Maryland—had substantially higher shares of African potentially eligible youth.”

    According to the state-wide data, Illinois has 77,000 Mexican eligible and 2,000 Korean eligible. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look to parse out the Poles, Russians and others.

    In NY State, Mexicans are #1 at 30,000 but China is #2 at 7,000.

    http://www.migrationpolicy.org/programs/data-hub/deferred-action-childhood-arrivals-daca-profiles

    http://www.migrationpolicy.org/programs/data-hub/deferred-action-childhood-arrivals-daca-profiles

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  344. “I’m clearly one of the 29% of likely voters who strongly approve of his performance. but a guy like you with TDS is never going like anything Trump does.”

    25% of Americans polled by Gallup supported Nixon on the day he resigned from office, even after the tapes had come to light and it was obvious he was a crook.

    It will be the same with Trump. When all of his financial dealings with Russia come to light (after all, there is a reason he won’t release his tax returns, right?) there will be 25% of the American public who shrugs and doesn’t care. That’s how it is.

    Thankfully, you can’t win an election with just that small number of voters.

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  345. “They think they are talking about white rural trump voters but they conveniently forget that they are also degrading urban african-americans too.”

    HD, with all due respect, you need to go and look at the data. Men’s participation in the workforce has been on the decline for years as ALL men have decided they’d rather let the woman bring home the bacon.

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  346. “But we can make it unprofitable for american corporations to hire and manufacture abroad, and give incentives to manufacture here, just the same way China sang the siren song and took all these jobs in the first place.”

    In 1980, we made a choice. Yes “we” as a nation.

    We chose cheap goods. Cheap televisions. Cheap VCRs. Cheap boom boxes. Cheap clothes. Cheap shoes. Cheap flip flops. That was the deal we made. We wanted it cheap and the only way to get it made cheaply enough to re-sell it cheap, is to make it overseas where the wages were much cheaper.

    Think about clothes for a minute. It used to be something like 15% of a family’s budget in the 1960s. This is why many families actually sewed their own clothes (imagine that today? Lol.) It’s miniscule now. Especially as clothing prices haven’t risen in 20 years. That sweater you bought for $80 in 1997 is still $80 today. Imagine being those businesses? Healthcare costs, salaries for everyone in management have gone through the roof. But they can’t charge anything more for the clothes (mostly because of Zara, H&M, Forever21 all bringing cheap clothes.)

    We could manufacture a lot of stuff in the US. We still do. But if you want that curling iron and don’t want to pay $300 for it, then you can’t build it here no matter how much you want to. Sorry. We made that deal with the devil a long time ago.

    The real question is, what will we have to replace it? The industrial/manufacturing time is gone in the developed world. Information has mostly replaced it. Look at the new jobs: social media director, SEO manager, Instagram star, online marketer etc. How do we make the transition to the next generation of the global economy? How do we prepare everyone in school for these jobs and these futures?

    No use in looking back. Those times are gone. No one is a blacksmith anymore either.

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  347. “I have quite a few extended family members as I discussed above who are un/under employed. I truly believe that in a different time, they woudl have been able to get decent jobs that would pay for their families, and work their way up the ladder, or at least obtain a union wage.”

    Homedelete, maybe your extended family needs to move somewhere where the manufacturing jobs exist (and are decent paying)? You know, like Chicago.

    From Crain’s:

    “Last year, after an upward slog of almost a decade, job openings in manufacturing finally matched pre-recession levels. This year the country has averaged 372,000 open jobs each month, and there’s no reason to think that the numbers the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to release Sept. 12 will be different.

    DeRango is the human resources manager at WaterSaver Faucet, a manufacturer with an estimated? $18 million? in revenue that makes laboratory sink faucets for customers like Northwestern University. She’s looking for two polishers, two rackers, two assemblers and a second-shift computer-numerically controlled (CNC) machine operator. She’s not worried about hiring for two reasons. First, the company pays competitive rates for production workers: The $12.29 to $14 per hour that it pays lower-skilled factory workers hugs the Chicago-area median pay for low-skilled jobs like ? assembly ($12.49 an hour), packaging ($13.91) and general production ($14.05). Second, when WaterSaver can’t afford top dollar, it forgoes experienced, high-skilled workers in favor of entry-level employees who can be trained. A newbie CNC machine operator starts at $14 an hour, well under the median wage of $18.79.”

    https://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20170909/ISSUE01/170909895/is-the-skills-gap-in-manufacturing-real

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  348. “Every single source has metro Istanbul at about 15m right now. Look it up.”

    So, you’ve never been there then.

    Okay then.

    When you get to 10 million+ it doesn’t really matter anymore. I made the point that those cities are that large because the rural people are all moving there looking for work. This is universal globally now. Same with Beijing and Shanghai. So sorry I was “off” by 5 million. It’s people everywhere. Just everywhere. But you would have no idea, obviously.

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  349. “it’s up the the american people to determine immigration policy and american spoke loud and clear last november that it wanted a want down south and less immigratiion policies. what happens when there is a recession and those immigrants are competing for work with native americans?”

    As someone else pointed out, we already saw the result of this 10 years ago in the worst recession here in 70 years. And we are talking about two different things: illegal immigrants and legal immigrants.

    Without both, our economy doesn’t function. If you think otherwise, you’re a fool. As I said, farmers in Southern Illinois just had to hire hundreds of Mexican farm workers to pick the peaches. Without them, they don’t farm and the produce rots.

    And NONE of your arguments are new. They are the same whining that has gone on for the last 200 years. Your description of “third world immigrants” is the same exact thing they called the Poles, the Irish and the Italians. The Italians weren’t even listed as “white” when they first came to the States. Gosh, imagine it. And you certainly didn’t want to let your daughter marry an Italian guy.

    Yes, there were signs saying, “Irish need not apply” and don’t even get me started on how the Germans were treated. There’s a reason there’s a German town in downstate Illinois and why there are several in Texas (yes! Total German towns in Texas.) No one on the east coast liked them. Kicked them out so they took the “free” land the US government was giving away to farm in the prairie states.

    Give me a break HD. So tired of the whining. When you say “ordinary Americans” that is code for “white Americans.”

    In recent polls over the last week, only about 15% of Americans believe the Dreamers should be deported. It is overwhelming between both Democrats AND Republicans.

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  350. “If those dairy farmers can’t pay more because prices are too low that problem will soon fix itself won’t it? With low prices and a labor shortage supply is going to fall isn’t it?”

    Yes- they said the cost of milk would double or triple. That’s how it “solves” itself.

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  351. Yep. And that’s a good thing. That’s how it’s supposed to work.

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  352. “Sabrina: the demographics is destiny. I get it. Its just that i’ve been hearing that for a generation now. and it still hasn’t happened yet. Will it ever? I don’t know.”

    A “generation”? Yes. That is true. It’s been happening over the last generation. California was Republican a generation ago, under Governor Wilson. It had Arnold 10 years ago and he may be the last Republican Governor for a long, long time.

    Meanwhile, in Texas, as I recounted here back in November, all of the major cities went blue as did many suburbs. In those that went red, the percentage dropped dramatically. Hillary cut into Obama’s losses in Texas by 50% in just 8 years. It’s only a matter of time before Texas is blue as well.

    Once you have CA and TX, as well as several of the other biggies, it is all but over for the Republicans. And their major demographic, white men, are declining as a percentage of the population.

    What a disaster of planning by the Republican party. Whatever happened to the soccer moms? Haven’t heard that term in at least 10 years. All of those women who used to vote Republican have been “lost” to the Dems.

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  353. “Is it my imagination or is this the most bizarre Cribchatter thread ever?”

    Not at all Gary. We’ve talked about all of these topics many, many times on Cribchatter over the years (including jobs, wages, women in the workforce, racism, the election, politics.) First time we talked about the Dreamers though. ha!

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  354. “Yep. And that’s a good thing. That’s how it’s supposed to work.”

    Not really. That’s called inflation. And if dairy milk triples, maybe you switch to almond milk or you go without. And then the dairy farmer goes under. Or if the price stays elevated, you ask for a raise at work and then the inflation starts to work its way through the economy.

    Most industries wouldn’t survive long doubling the price of their product.

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  355. “Not really. That’s called inflation. And if dairy milk triples, maybe you switch to almond milk or you go without. And then the dairy farmer goes under. Or if the price stays elevated, you ask for a raise at work and then the inflation starts to work its way through the economy.”

    That’s not how it works. It’s not binary. Some dairy farmers close shop and prices go up until the farmers that remain can afford to pay enough to get the workers they need. The system reaches equilibrium pretty quickly.

    The fact of the matter is that we have had little wage growth or general inflation thus far so we have lots of room to raise wages without causing overall inflation. And when those wages go up everyone can breathe a sigh of relief that people on the lower end are better off. And the government won’t need to do anything to raise the wages either because it will happen on it’s own.

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  356. You’re holding up 12-18 dollar hour machining jobs that don’t pay what a similar union job would have 20+ years ago as worthy of uprooting one’s family and moving to the high cost of living city that is Chicago? Really?

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  357. Not in that particular example but there are plenty of people who already live here that work for far less today and could go to work there. Why don’t they?

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  358. “So, you’ve never been there then.”

    And you’ve never had kids attend CPS, which doesn’t even make your *opinion* invalid, much less when you recite *facts*.

    I don’t need to have been to Istanbul to *know* that there aren’t 20m people there (yet).

    You sound like a Trumpkin, reciting nonsense just because you can’t admit to making a mistake.

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  359. “he’s delivering exactly as promised”

    Haven’t noticed anyone tired of winning already.

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  360. “Oh- and all this brainwashing about the horrors of the inner cities when it’s the white rural people who are in true crisis is the biggest fake news out there. All you have to do is read this week in the life of the opioid crisis in Cincinnati. What a economic and social disaster. And this is happening everywhere. ”

    Talking about St. Louis in another thread… my god the number of heroin overdoses and drug overdoses in general in the surrounding St. Louis Metro is staggering… what a shit hole!

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  361. “the cost of milk would double or triple”

    Forecast if 100% of immigrant workers left (which won’t happen) is for a 90% increase in *retail* prices.

    https://www.agweb.com/article/losing-immigrant-workers-on-dairy-farms-would-nearly-double-retail-milk-prices-naa-news-release/

    $32B is a big number.

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  362. the cost of cheese is already too damn high!

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  363. “Are they good for the country? Didn’t we just discuss that 50% of all african american men ages 20-24 are in school or not work? T”

    Do they want to work? They grew up seeing their mother run the household and do all of the work. Their fathers were in prison or absent. They expect to bounce from woman to woman, having more bastard children as they go, living off of their current girlfriend’s paltry income while they deal drugs so that they can afford to buy fancy sneakers for themselves and trick out their junk car.

    It’s interesting that the employment numbers for African American woman are so different than men and I don’t think it’s because the men are suddenly being discriminated against more than the women.

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  364. Here’s what dt/Paul Ryan & imo hd’s real agenda is re underemployed Americans: their misfortune’s a golden opportunity to minimize IRS audits of wealthy:

    “Less publicized is troubling language in the budget resolution committee report, which proposes decreasing “improper” [Earned Income Tax Credit] payments by requiring verification of all income before benefits go out.

    The language is vague but appears to refer to a Heritage Foundation proposal that would require the IRS to “fully verify income through a review of Form W-2, Form 1099, business licensing or registration, and relevant invoices” before dispensing any refunds. So, a mini-audit.

    Paul Ryan has spent much of this year telling voters he wants to make their taxes so simple they can file them on the back of a postcard. Meanwhile, his party is trying to radically increase the amount of administrative work that low-income Americans must do, in order to qualify for the Earned Income Tax Credit (a subsidy that increases the take-home earnings of low-income workers, thereby increasing their incentive to join the labor force).”

    Why? “…(3) The more resources the IRS devotes to chasing that chump change, the less they can spend on auditing the very rich … endeavors that routinely win the government hundred of thousands, or even millions, of dollars. When the IRS goes after the big fish, its efforts are so remunerative that the Treasury Department estimates that for every $1 the government spends on tax compliance, it gets $6 back in recovered tax revenue.

    That last point is crucial. Since taking Congress in 2010, Republicans have drastically reduced the IRS’s budget, despite the fact that these cuts actually cost the government money. And the White House has proposed cutting the agency’s funding further still — even though the president would also like to enact a tax cut for pass-through businesses…”

    Despicable, beneath pond scum all of them. jmho

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  365. What a disaster of planning by the Republican party. Whatever happened to the soccer moms? Haven’t heard that term in at least 10 years. All of those women who used to vote Republican have been “lost” to the Dems.

    Soccer Moms = White

    Trump won white women

    ???

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  366. SB i’ve seen thousands of low income tax returns over the years. they are ripe with fraud. no purposely but they go to the local tax provider in the neighborhood who promises the biggest refund. suddenly these people are claiming their relatives and foreign parents as dependents, they sell off unused dependent ssn to the highest bidders, they all claim unreimbursed business expenses or schedule C losses from employment. rarely and i mean rarely will the neighborhood tax guy file a married couple as married filing jointly. it’s almost always, and i mean always, head of household. some immigrations even attorneys advise aliens applying for naturalization to go back and amend their returns, even if it costs thousands in back taxes, because some hearing officers believe that lying about your filing status on income tax is evidence of bad moral character. you don’t see this as much from more middle class folks. upper-middle-class filers have a higher chance of being audited if they have income other than W-2 income. schedule C’s with income over $100,000 have a 1 in 8 – yes that’s correct – 1 in 8 chance of being audited. just so you know.

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  367. as for the IRS and these local tax guys, right now the IRS has NO authority to regulate local tax preparers. Anybody can prepare someone’s taxes. Like I said above, the lower class and working class communities are filled with unregulated shady dudes who call themselves tax preparers and promise the biggest refunds, and then prepare these completely fraudulent tax returns so people can get the biggest return. It really sucks because a lot of these taxpayers have no idea what is going on with their taxes because it’s so complicated, and then freak out when they get an automated IRS audit saying that the IRS is going to disallow their exemptions deductions and martial status (And often adding in unreported 1099 income too i.e. Lyft, Uber, Takl, etc) and they get huge tax penalties for a shady return from local shady tax preparer. I worked on a case a few years ago where one of the local people filed a married couples tax returns as head of household, lied about the incomes, and then fricking routed the tax returns to her own bank account! Obviously these people figured out after a few months that their return wasn’t coming and they called the IRS. The IRS investigated the prepared, filed charges against her, and the AUDITED THE MARRIED COUPLE FOR THE PREVIOUS FOUR YEARS! Resulting in a tax liability with penalties for something like 20 thousand dollars. They had to file a Chapter 13 bankruptcy just to avoid the 65% paycheck levy the IRS loves to use (or as they say, to get the tax payers attention). So basically, SB, these issues have been goign on a long time with the IRS, it’s really not about less audits for rich people. Less audits for rich people came when congress reduced the IRS budget by 30% for denying 501(c) status to conservative groups. This situation is truly about avoiding rampant fraud.

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  368. More total BS posted by hd “schedule C’s with income over $100,000 have a 1 in 8 – yes that’s correct – 1 in 8 chance of being audited. just so you know.”

    I didn’t know so I looked it up in case hd just made #s upre his post.

    Kiplinger provides fill-in-blanks calculator for odds of an audit (which are 1/143 tax returns over all). If you file schedule C and have gross recipts between $100K-$200K Kiplinger states odds are 1 in 45 (or 1/6th of the 1/8 hd made up.)

    Self employed UMC & UC filers of course take risks re filing returns b/c audit odds are so low and so long as a ‘reach’ on their return has a scintilla of rationale they’ll only pay tax plus interest w/o penalties. IF IT’S UNCOVERED. Any if rev. agents get primarily focused on re-calculating tax filings by people earning under $20K there’s less resources available to audit shady filings by large income tax avoiders. Out of 1 million audits last year 23,000 tax filers appealed outcome re $1.6 billion additional taxes (so $70K/return in addd’l taxes not income). Those upper income tax avoiders are who IRS needs to continue focusing on not the immigrants cleaning our offices. jmo

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  369. SB,

    STOP for goodness sakes. Its all people over $100,000+ with schedule C, not just 100-200k. You are such a hater man, such a hater. Your fact checking and TDS is driving you crazy man.

    Read this link:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/anthonynitti/2013/03/25/what-are-your-odds-of-being-audited-by-the-irs/#4354d7d75d97

    schedule C or E $100-$200 is 3.5%
    Income $200-$1M is 3.2%
    Income $1,000,000 + is 12.1%

    SO that right there is a 1/6 chance of being audited overall,but I can’t find the old stat I had about the 1/8 for schedule C above $100k.

    Just using kiplinger says schedule C $100-$200 is 1/45….but forbes says it is 1/28. So there’s a differnce in opinion there.

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  370. SB,

    Local news station story about tax fraud among working class, claiming nieces and nephews like I discussed above. There are large numbers and enforcing this is a great low hanging fruit:

    http://www.wthr.com/article/tax-loophole-costs-billions

    “”We’re talking about a multi-billion dollar fraud scheme here that’s taking place and no one is talking about it,” he said.

    The scheme involves illegal immigrants — illegal immigrants who are filing tax returns.

    How it works

    The Internal Revenue Service says everyone who is employed in the United States – even those who are working here illegally – must report income and pay taxes. Of course, undocumented workers are not supposed to have a social security number. So for them to pay taxes, the IRS created what’s called an ITIN, an individual taxpayer identification number. A 9-digit ITIN number issued by the IRS provides both resident and nonresident aliens with a unique identification number that allows them to file tax returns.

    While that may have seemed like a good idea, it’s now backfiring in a big way.

    Each spring, at tax preparation offices all across the nation, many illegal immigrants are now eagerly filing tax returns to take advantage of a tax loophole, using their ITIN numbers to get huge refunds from the IRS.

    The loophole is called the Additional Child Tax Credit. It’s a fully-refundable credit of up to $1000 per child, and it’s meant to help working families who have children living at home.

    But 13 Investigates has found many undocumented workers are claiming the tax credit for kids who live in Mexico – lots of kids in Mexico.

    “We’ve seen sometimes 10 or 12 dependents, most times nieces and nephews, on these tax forms,” the whistleblower told Eyewitness News. “The more you put on there, the more you get back.”

    The whistleblower has thousands of examples, and he brought some of them to 13 Investigates. While identifying information such as names and addresses on the tax returns was redacted, it was still clear that the tax filers had received large tax refunds after claiming additional child tax credits for many dependents.

    “Here’s a return right here: we’ve got a $10,3000 refund for nine nieces and nephews,” he said, pointing to the words “niece” and “nephew” listed on the tax forms nine separate times.

    “We’re getting an $11,000 refund on this tax return. There’s seven nieces and nephews,” he said, pointing to another set of documents. “I can bring out stacks and stacks. It’s just so easy it’s ridiculous.””

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  371. “SO that right there is a 1/6 chance of being audited overall”

    That’s not how numbers work, HD.

    Are you sure you don’t have a side business of being a shady neighborhood tax preparer??

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  372. http://www.wral.com/investigators-child-tax-credit-allows-fraudsters-a-chance-to-cheat/11697176/

    Investigators: Child tax credit allows fraudsters a chance to cheat

    Posted October 25, 2012
    Updated November 1, 2012

    Raleigh, N.C. — North Carolina is part of what federal investigators call a nationwide tax fraud scheme among suspected illegal immigrants. It’s a system auditors believe invites fraud and abuse topping more than $4 billion a year.

    WRAL Investigates found federal reports dating back more than a decade that warned the Internal Revenue Service about the problem. Yet, the IRS has done little to fix it.

    Investigators uncovered more than 1,000 tax returns linked to eight addresses in North Carolina last May, with refunds worth more than $5 million.

    Those tax fraud schemes are a problem across the U.S. and include refunds given for children, many of whom don’t live in the U.S. or don’t even exist, according to the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration.

    U.S. citizens’ Social Security numbers are used when processing tax returns. Illegal immigrants, or people in the U.S. on work visas, use an Individual Taxpayer Identification Number, or ITIN.

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  373. hd doubled down posting more BS. hd posted R’s also made up BS talking points lying about why R’s are hobbling IRS rev agents:

    “..it’s really not about less audits for rich people. Less audits for rich people came when congress reduced the IRS budget by 30% for denying 501(c) status to conservative groups. This situation is truly about avoiding rampant fraud…”

    So fire any IRS people who violated regs but don’t pretend cutting IRS budget is abt anything other than slowing down audits of wealthy filers by rev agents. whether u believe what you’ve posted today is irrelevant to me- hd you truly are a lying sack of sh-t

    Rampant fraud by low income tax payers amounts to nickels and dimes vs rampant fraud by RE developers & attorneys imo (Harry Macklow a ny RE developer buddy of dt worth $2 billion who admits he hasn’t pd any fed’l income tax since 1983 claimed in recent divorce testimony vs wife of 57 yrs that he’s really worth negative $400 million & he’s currently bldg high-rise @ 432 Park Ave.) What good does noncollectable $20K here & there do vs collecting another $1.6 billion toward lowering deficit?

    Finally hd’s imaginary clients hired a dishonest preparer who not only filed bogus returns signed by AB for 5th yr & also cheated them by stealing from them/ IRS. And hd’s mortified IRS looked into 4 past yrs returns. So what – they got what they deserved. Imo IRS should audit one $20K return for every 5000 shady returns audited re gross incomes above $250K. hd and R’s believe the reverse – make rev agents prove every one of those $20k filers deserve their requested earned income tax credit before auditing any UMC or UC returns.

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  374. OK anon(tfo) there was some bad math in there admittedly, but it’s tough to come by real numbers. I stand by my 1/8 audit chance Schedule C if income $100k+. Maybe I got bad info from my source, it’s an old stat in my head that I can’t seem to find the link to. but regardless, like the 15M or 20M in istanbul, let’s not miss the forest for trees, and both agree that the chances of audit increase significantly the higher the income; and that the low income tax returns are ripe with fraud because the IRS spends so much time going after the people who already pay the most.

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  375. “The loophole is called the Additional Child Tax Credit. It’s a fully-refundable credit of up to $1000 per child, and it’s meant to help working families who have children living at home.”

    I don’t understand why there are tax credits for kids at all. Kids suck up more government resources. People with kids should pay higher taxes, not get tax credits. As someone who uses almost no government programs (except for the getting free e-books from the library), I should receive a tax credit. It could be similar to the credit employers give employees when you opt out of one of their benefits programs.

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  376. I’ll show you, HD, with some plausible numbers in each cohort (chosen to be easy):

    schedule C or E $100-$200 is 3.5% of 900,000, or 31500 audits
    Income $200-$1M is 3.2% of 99000, or 3168 audits.
    Income $1,000,000 + is 12.1% of 1000, or 121 audits

    for a total of 34,789 audits out of a million returns–or about 1 in 28–a 3.48% chance.

    Change the numbers however you like, it’s impossible for the overall prevalence to be higher than the prevalence in the cohort with the highest prevalence–so, with those numbers, well less than 1 in 8, even if the pyramid were inverted, and 90% were 1M+ filers:

    schedule C or E $100-$200 is 3.5% of 1000
    Income $200-$1M is 3.2% of 99000
    Income $1,000,000 + is 12.1% of 90000

    That’d gives 112,103 audits out of a million, so 11.2%–lower, not higher, than the largest cohort percentage.

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  377. SB, your TDS is so bad man, you need some xanax or something. The biggest tax cheats of all are the large corporations, like google, apple, amazon, etc, with near zero corporate tax rates. A few pennies off a rich developer (who survives audits) is nothing compared to the hillary supporting tech companies. They use tax havens galore to cheat you and I out of billions, and billions of dollars. Thats what the real target of tax reform should be. Maybe we can agree on that/

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  378. “People with kids should pay higher taxes, not get tax credits. ”

    Jenny, you need people to have children, so there will be younger workers to pay your social security and medicare benefits.

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  379. “I stand by my 1/8 audit chance Schedule C if income $100k+”

    Bet you are mis-remembering the 100k number (or where you read it misplaced the decimal). You’ve presented evidence that it is about 1 in 8 for income over 1,000,000–really easy to misplace the decimal. Occam and all.

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  380. I ADMITTED THE bad math anon(tfo) in my haste to post in the 15 minutes free time i have to today, I glossed over and did some bad math. I should have caught it; thank goodness posting online does’t require teh same attention detail as my book thick purchase agreements

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  381. Sigh. I miss the days when southbound used to give me restaurant recommendations like for “Count Chocula” on Pulaski by Midway :)

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  382. “As someone who uses almost no government programs”

    Whether you like it or not, you “use” national defense, roads, airports, etc, etc, which have been deficit funded for your entire life. You have a $60k+ individual allocation of the debt accruing interest daily.

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  383. It is possible Anon(tfo) I may misremembered it as $100k rather than $1,000,000. But it took 1/2 a second to realize that adding up the cohorts was bath mad after SB pointed it out. Again, in my haste, I wasn’t thinking things through. Y’all can crucify me for that. Or just let me take my 14 nieces and nephews as dependents on my tax rturn and don’t tell nobody.

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  384. “don’t tell nobody”

    T-Man Nobody took early retirement so he don’t care no more.

    You’re so tetchy when you’re playing bizarro HD with all the f’ing bugnuts conspiracy theories.

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  385. “Jenny, you need people to have children, so there will be younger workers to pay your social security and medicare benefits.”

    This is why we need more educated, adult immigrants! Bring people over as college students and then get them in to high paying professional jobs. We don’t need more Americans to have kids. There are plenty of people in the world already.

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  386. hd STOP POSTING LIES for badness sakes:
    u posted “..schedule C’s with income over $100,000 have a 1 in 8 chance of audit..”
    When caught posting that lie you pivoted & posted new lie: per Forbes “schedule C or E $100-$200K is 3.5%”.

    Truth is, as hd knows, Forbes states odds of audit is 3.5% when schedule C or E income is GREATER than $200K (not $100K you liar)- that’s 1/33 not 1/8 & Forbes says odds are 1.2% for lower schedule C or E income.
    hd you lie repeatedly & w/no shame. So sad but typical of R’s ime. When you don’t have facts to rely on they/hd just lie & bang the table. jmo

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  387. I love seeing you get all worked up SB, it’s awesome. Lying is intentional; I don’t think I’m lying, I’m just cutting and pasting and not reading things very closely. You’re right, it’s income greater than 200, followed by a ‘,’ and not a ‘-‘ so it’s 3.5%. I’m more negligent than anything; we can argue if I’m grossly or recklessly negligent, but I’m certainly not intentionally lying.

    But by this far down in the thread, no one but you, jenny and anon(tfo) are reading; and all I’m really trying to do is raise your blood pressure and aggravate your TDS. I can see that I’m succeeding. This for me is low hanging fruit.

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  388. milkster I apologize for responding to a troll’s repeated baits. Not gonna’ do it anymore (today).
    I highly rec’d 6 month old Mi Tocaya Antojeria @ 2800 W Logan Blvd here recently (Riz touted it before me). Chef/owner’s a youngish (40?) daughter of a s side rest. fam who’s showing unbelievable chops imo whilst opening her 1st restaurant. It’s already been honored by Conde’Nast & Bon Appetit. Great vibe, great drinks & vg food @ popular prices. We ate at JJ’s Thai Street Food 1715 W Chicago last wkend & while it served gd food it cost $60/2 w/o drinks (byob) – not great value imo.

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  389. “Jenny, you need people to have children, so there will be younger workers to pay your social security and medicare benefits.”

    You are of course correct but this is a sad truth. This is exactly how Ponzi schemes work. Madoff went to jail for this.

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  390. Dang guys I disappear into another 100 hour week frenzy and the threads here get crazy. Kinda like it though.

    SB – mi tocaya rocks..It was actually Sabrina that turned me on to it a while back.

    Is JJ’s in west town? I’ve always been a fan of Opart in that area…Think they were michelin rated. Great Masaman Curry and curry fried rice.

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  391. Jenny,

    You’re right that there are plenty of people – the problem is , a HUGE amount of these people are old / aging / elderly, and are going to be draining the system, not contributing to it ( for the most part ) . We need young people underpaid and overworked / over taxed in the system to support this city’s pensions, don’t we?

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  392. http://www.vancouversun.com/news/national/story+nafta+told+from+canadian+auto+plant+mexico+where+workers/14615233/story.html

    The story of NAFTA, as told from a Canadian auto plant in Mexico where workers earn $6 per hour

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  393. “Soccer Moms = White

    Trump won white women”

    Trump lost most of the suburbs of most major cities, i.e. see Chicago suburbs. These were the soccer moms, JohnnyU. Soccer moms are not simply white women. Lol. They were suburban middle and upper middle class women (of ALL races) who used to be conservative, but now they’re not. They used to vote Republican, but now they don’t. Henry Hyde’s old district in the western suburbs here in Chicago is now blue.

    Trump won white rural women (barely) not soccer moms.

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  394. “You’re holding up 12-18 dollar hour machining jobs that don’t pay what a similar union job would have 20+ years ago as worthy of uprooting one’s family and moving to the high cost of living city that is Chicago? Really?”

    What a job used to pay 40 years ago is irrelevant in THIS job market. Those union jobs aren’t coming back because no one is in a union.

    And yes- they should uproot their families and move to Chicago for a job that STARTS at $12-$18 an hour when HD said their only choices were NOT working or working at CVS for $8.00 an hour.

    The median wage of a CNC operator, by the way, is $55,000 a year. Since when is that a bad wage???

    People are unrealistic on this blog. You’re all upper middle class or rich so you have no idea what the normal workers are actually making out there. They all aren’t making $100,000 a year to work in manufacturing. Lol.

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  395. YOU’RE the unrealistic one Sabrna, thinking someone would or should uproot themselves and their families for 12-15 per hour in Chicago. And that’s why they will largely stay put and live on gov’t programs in jobless areas. 12-15 hours to start with experienced workers at 18 isn’t a living wage for a family, not in 2017 Chicago. Get real.

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  396. Trump lost most of the suburbs of most major cities, i.e. see Chicago suburbs. These were the soccer moms, JohnnyU. Soccer moms are not simply white women. Lol. They were suburban middle and upper middle class women (of ALL races) who used to be conservative, but now they’re not. They used to vote Republican, but now they don’t. Henry Hyde’s old district in the western suburbs here in Chicago is now blue.
    Trump won white rural women (barely) not soccer moms.

    Soccer moms are white women who used to drive vans and now drive big SUVs.

    Trump got 53 Vs 43 Clinton of white women, so you analysis is flawed.

    https://newrepublic.com/article/138754/blame-trumps-victory-college-educated-whites-not-working-class

    I guess it’s like 15MM being the same as 20MM

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  397. the other thing to consider, at least anecdotally, is that the idea of a ‘family’ that can pack up and move is also a bit antiquated. many ‘families’ if you can call them that, and especially younger ones, aren’t getting married like they used to. so many children are being born out of wedlock and it’s difficult for one parent to get up and move when there are parental rights to be considered, child support payments and so forth. for example, a guy with two children paying child support can’t just leave the state and have any unemployment while looking for work. judges think it’s better to work for a low wage job today than to move somewherr else for speculative higher pay. secondly, the mother with the children often can’t leave the state due to custody agreements. i won’t quote any stats on this but from what i see anecdotally this is a factor.

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  398. Here’s some low hanging fruit this am: Lyin’ hd, a real sack o’ sh-t who’s proud to emulate lyin’dt & lyin’hh posted:
    ” OK anon(tfo) there was some bad math in there admittedly, but it’s tough to come by real numbers. I stand by my 1/8 audit chance Schedule C if income $100k+. Maybe I got bad info from my source, it’s an old stat in my head that I can’t seem to find the link to. but regardless.. let’s not miss the forest for trees”

    It’s not just tough – it’s impossible to find any real numbers that back up the lies you keep posting. Forest & trees is what people say when they believe their lying is justifiable. hd’s a POS

    & “It is possible Anon(tfo) I may misremembered it as $100k rather than $1,000,000… Again, in my haste, I wasn’t thinking things through. ”

    No hd focused on posting lies betting no one would call him out for lying.

    To quote another; “You sound like a Trumpkin, reciting nonsense just because you can’t admit to making a mistake.

    Finally:” Y’all can crucify me for that. Or just let me take my 14 nieces and nephews as dependents on my tax rturn and don’t tell nobody.” Don’t deny it any longer hd – u r as racist as HH. You’re a despicable POS

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  399. nowhere in hd’s post did he mention someone’s skin color southbound… so by you jumping to that conclusion you are actually the stereotyping, racist POS!

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  400. ” Y’all can crucify me for that. Or just let me take my 14 nieces and nephews as dependents on my tax rturn and don’t tell nobody.””

    Uh, how is this racist? I just don’t get you SB. I really don’t. I mean you’re a bleeding heart liberal DB, but living in Chicago, they’re everywhere and I have many good friends with severe cases of TDS. But you, you’re just bitter about something, you hate me. I got nothing to do with HH and I call out that guy every opportunity I can. He and I are not friends, I do not know him, I do not agree with his posts. Look back at my posts and I says that he starts out with a conservative proposition – like lower taxes or something mundane, and then two sentences later he’s calling for a pogrom. The guy is absolutely insane, he may as well be an ecoterrorist like your people!

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