Market Conditions: What Will Be the Impacts of the Coronavirus on Chicago’s Housing Market?
It’s time for an open thread on the impacts of the coronavirus on Chicago’s housing market.
Yes, obviously the health and safety impacts take priority. But there will be economic impacts as well.
With the stock market at record highs, unemployment at 50-year lows, and mortgage rates back to all-time lows, the Chicago spring housing market was expected to be hot.
Inventory also remained at a multi-year low, leading to multiple offers on many properties in February.
But at the end of the month, coronavirus fears started to hit the US stock market and now, Chicago is entering into a virtual lockdown, as schools along with restaurants and bars are ordered closed by the Governor.
Even as mortgage rates have plunged further, with most people told to socially distance themselves, and remain at home, what does this mean for Chicago’s housing market?
Would you list your property right now or are you now going to wait until April, or May, to list?
Will the housing market grind to a halt as the rest of the economy seems set to do?
If the stock market continues to slide, what impact will that have on the luxury housing market which has, historically, been tied to movements in the stock market?
Will all of this just be a couple of months of “pause” with demand still there, but just on the sidelines, until the virus passes?
This is unlike anything any of us has ever seen, in terms of the sudden shock to the economy.
Many of you were posting to this blog during the worst of the financial crisis.
What will happen to Chicago’s housing market this time around?
“This is unlike anything any of us has ever seen, in terms of the sudden shock to the economy.”
C’mon. It’s very similar to 9-11 as far as a sudden shock to the economy.
I’d say that there is a lot more uncertainty about what comes next now, tho.
Looks to me like mortgage rates have actually risen quite a bit in the last week or two. Processing backlogs and market liquidity issues.
Short term everything will be crushed
Look for a big stimulus package to kick start the economy in 6 weeks
“Will the housing market grind to a halt as the rest of the economy seems set to do?”
If Chicago’s housing market is a zombie, then JB’s shutting down the economy is like a swift machete chopping off that zombie’s head. There’s no recovering from this. I’ve heard anecdotally that pending deals are falling apart and new deals are zip zilch nada.
Our economy is a bit like a credit score – it takes years and significant effort to improve a poor credit score, but only one short term shock to utterly destroy it.
As for 9/11, this is way bigger than 9/11. After 9/11 things slowed down for a little while but there was no blanket closures of schools, parks, events, courts and restaurants for months on end.
I don’t often speak in hysterics, but this is quite literally, the end of the state’s economy. So many cities and counties in Illinois live the equivalent of paycheck to paycheck, and with a month or more little revenue (but the union paychecks keep on flowin’!), defaults are surely going to happen. JB and his team of crackpots is even less qualified than Trump and his team to handle this mess. I half expect JB to pull a big mac out of his pocket and take a couple of bites during his daily press conferences. He’s more clueless than Trump with all of this. AT least Trump got up to speed pretty quickly with a team of experts and titans in business to get behind this. JB has a bunch of state employees who all want to take an early retirement with their $200k+ a year pensions. It’s truly scary how bad JB is bungling this. There will be no recovery from this, not for a long time.
Correct me if I’m wrong but we don’t want to stimulate the economy now. We want it dead. We want people sitting around in their houses. What am I missing?
“As for 9/11, this is way bigger than 9/11. After 9/11 things slowed down for a little while but there was no blanket closures of schools, parks, events, courts and restaurants for months on end.”
Are you taking reading comp pointers for clio?
“Correct me if I’m wrong but we don’t want to stimulate the economy now. We want it dead. We want people sitting around in their houses. What am I missing?”
WHAT ARE YOU MISSING? THERE ARE 93 CASES OF WUHAN VIRUS IN ILLINOIS. NO ONE HAS DIED YET! WE MUST SHUT DOWN THE ECONOMY, PUT EVERY SMALL BUSINESS AT RISK OF BANKRUPTCY, BECAUSE TWITTER DEMANDS IT!
“It’s very similar to 9-11 as far as a sudden shock to the economy.”
It’s not very similar, it’s only similar. Courts and schools closed for a day or two. Airlines got hit hard as new screening issues were put in place but picked up rather quickly after a bailout. Hollywood had a bad weekend but the economy picked back up rather quickly.
“I’d say that there is a lot more uncertainty about what comes next now, tho.”
There’s not that much uncertainty as to what comes next. We know everything is closed for at least two weeks, possibly a month. That much we know. we know many businesses and households will be filing bankruptcy. Supply chains will dry up, warehouses will be empty. It’s going to be bad, very bad. Make sure you have plenty vodka, guns & ammo and canned goods.
” THERE ARE 93 CASES OF WUHAN VIRUS IN ILLINOIS”
It doubles every 2 – 3 days or whatever. Less activity means longer doubling time. Do the math.
“It doubles every 2 – 3 days or whatever. Less activity means longer doubling time. Do the math.”
Except when it doesn’t. Computer models are helpful, but GIGO. There’s a lot of GIGO on these Wuhan virus models. Not even one of them has accurately predicted anything thus far.
Facts matter. March 12: 1697 cases March 15: 3680. What do you think the trajectory looks like? https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
I am amazed at all the things folks are experts on here on Crib Chatter – – forget real estate, we even have experts in epi curves – – My friends who work at the CDC are going to be consulting with you guys once I tell them!
Will everyone just chill out with buying up all the hand sanitizer and TP?
And if you guys didn’t know, HD is an expert on everything, including medicine and epidemiology.
“And if you guys didn’t know, HD is an expert on everything, including medicine and epidemiology.”
Yes, don’t question your leaders and the decisions they make when they destroy your livelihood, your income and your business, and a lot of our population will be living off rice and beans for the next two months. That’s the attitude, don’t you dare ever question Trump or JB with any of their decisions. Just remember, they don’t need paychecks; and their government employees have guaranteed jobs and guaranteed pensions. The rest of us? What about the rest of us that have seen the stock market tank, our cash reserves being used up, a loss of income for the foreseeable future? What about the rest of us without that government paycheck?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/coronavirus-hype-overreaction-social-distancing.html
Some Ask a Taboo Question: Is America Overreacting to Coronavirus?
With “social distancing” now widely adopted nationwide, a small group of contrarians urge a more careful weighing of the harm as well as the benefits of such policies.
“Some Ask a Taboo Question: Is America Overreacting to Coronavirus?”
I’ll take Anti-Social Misanthropy for $2,000, Alex.
It’s not “taboo”, it just shows that you’re an asshole:
“Still, Dr. Thunstrom asked, “Do we even want to look at that? Is it too [assholey]?””
Seriously, tho, I’d wager that more than a few of thought of the on-going costs of the old and infirm. It becomes a question of ethics, one that’s far more complex than the trolley dilemma, mostly because the repercussions of acting are completely unknowable–it’s a new trolley dilemma:
There is a runaway virus barreling across America. Ahead on the tracks, in assisted living facilities, there are five million people unable to move. The virus is headed straight for them, and expected to kill as many as one in 7 of them. You are standing some distance off in the ivory tower, next to a lever. If you pull this lever, the virus will switch to a different set of tracks. However, you notice that there is the global economy on the side track. You have two options:
1. Do nothing and allow the trolley to kill up to 15% of the five million people on the main track.
2. Pull the lever, diverting the trolley onto the side track where it will crater the global economy, creating unknowable suffering for an unknowable time period.
anon(tfo):
Come on, you know better than this.
There’s an obvious Option 3, which is what the UK is doing:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/uk-coronavirus-herd-immunity/2020/03/16/1c9d640e-66c7-11ea-b199-3a9799c54512_story.html
And if Boris is right and the death rates are the same, or less than the US….JB kicked out of the state in shame. He can move to the Isle of Mann and swim in his pool of money offshore.
I am actually very pleasantly surprised by the weekend’s contract activity. buyers are still pulling the trigger, at least for now. None of my clients have killed deals yet. Only one has called to ask if she can.
So far, so good. Doom and gloom this summer I’m afraid. Too many folks are going to be sidelined by stock portfolio losses to say nothing of the huge swaths of the population are going to see their wages evaporate too. Its going to take a while to get them back to the table.
“And if Boris is right and the death rates are the same, or less than the US….JB kicked out of the state in shame.”
Boris is wrong. He is already admitting it and they are reversing course. Expects people to have to shelter in place for up to 3 months in the UK.
JB was right to move quickly. NY has waited and now their cases are spiking. We must flatten the curve to protect our hospitals.
“There is a runaway virus barreling across America. Ahead on the tracks, in assisted living facilities, there are five million people unable to move.”
For sure. This is a huge danger. My gosh, imagine if there is an outbreak in the Villages in Florida? Over 100,000 at risk there.
But France was saying this morning that half of their cases in the ICU were under the age of 65. You’re not in assisted living at age 65. You barely even qualify to live there at that age. Vast majority are over the age of 80.
“Yes, don’t question your leaders and the decisions they make when they destroy your livelihood, your income and your business, and a lot of our population will be living off rice and beans for the next two months.”
Yeah- if I’m a “leader” that would be the goal of my administration. Lol.
Come on!
Does the Ohio Governor need his paycheck? He has put on even more draconian restrictions than Illinois.
“There’s a lot of GIGO on these Wuhan virus models. Not even one of them has accurately predicted anything thus far.”
Bad data.
“It doubles every 2 – 3 days or whatever. Less activity means longer doubling time. Do the math.”
Yep- up again today.
San Francisco going into full lockdown because its cases are spiking dramatically now. Noooooo….
“It’s not very similar, it’s only similar. Courts and schools closed for a day or two. Airlines got hit hard as new screening issues were put in place but picked up rather quickly after a bailout. Hollywood had a bad weekend but the economy picked back up rather quick”
Were you an adult during 9/11 HD?
Asking in all honesty.
The stock market was closed for days. All airplanes grounded. People were afraid to go to work in the Sears Tower and quit rather than go there.
It was unclear if the banks would open the day afterwards.
Chicago’s business district pretty much shut down for over a week.
It took months before the airlines were back to even 50% as people were too afraid to fly. Crushed hotels. Remember the scares that the malls were going to be the next terrorist target?
But I would say this is different because the shutdowns are nationwide and are going to be for a MUCH longer period of time.
My gosh, you can’t even get married right now. And that may be the case for the next 2 months (unless you have under 10 people at the ceremony.) The trickle down impacts are enormous.
We are going to have a severe recession. 9/11 recession wasn’t severe.
“AT least Trump got up to speed pretty quickly with a team of experts and titans in business to get behind this.”
Trump was comparing it to the flu as recently as…yesterday. He hasn’t gotten up to speed at all. When asked how many respirators we have, he has no idea.
“Looks to me like mortgage rates have actually risen quite a bit in the last week or two. Processing backlogs and market liquidity issues.”
Mortgage brokers I know told me that the mortgage market collapsed last week.
Russ is too busy dealing with everything to comment here but I’d like to hear what his thoughts are.
“But France was saying this morning that half of their cases in the ICU were under the age of 65. ”
Yes but 71 of the 91 in France that have died are….OVER 75 years old. 1/3rd of the country still smokes cigarettes daily and given that no information whatsoever was released about these folks under the age of 65 in intensive care…I venture to guess that they’re all heavy smokers, otherwise the surgeon general would have said “they’re mostly healthy with no underlying medical conditions.”
Sure, there is the random case here or there about a guy (because it’s mostly men becoming susceptible) in his 30’s or 40’s, and yes, this pandemic is bad news. And high risk individuals should quarantine and those who need to quarantine need government assistance.
But it’s certain not ‘shut down the entire economy’ worthy. Mark my words that just like the Iraq war, and the Vietnam war, we’re going to look back at the economic destruction caused by this and regret what we’ve done. We’ve shut down our entire economy, stopped our most productive younger members of society from working, we’re delaying herd immunity….because we don’t have enough ventilators for unhealthy elderly people? like they can’t self-quarantine for a couple of months, which they are doing anyways?
And I do remember 9/11. Schools were closed for two days, restaurants were a little slow, things slowed down a bit, but in the scheme of things, it was a minor blip. The dot com bubble was a bigger economic shock. 1987 was a bigger economic shock. But the 2020 coronavirus might be even bigger than the 2008 GFC.
Sorry to be the contrarian voice in all of this, just like Bernie was the contrarian voice during the Iraq war, but I’m telling you, this is all a huge, huge mistake. The fallout from this will be monumental. I know so many people who are totally totally F***ED right now and they’re all wondering why they’re suffering really bad. they can’t pay rent next month, or even put food on the table because the gov. decided to placate the hysterical twitter crowd and shut down the state.
Just today, here’s some texts I’ve gotten from close friends and family members in the last 24 hours:
Family member 1: “[Chicago area attraction ] has closed due to the [wuhan] virus. [work] informed us [today] that we will be laid off at least three weeks, up to eight weeks, and possibly more… UNPAID. I will apply for unemployment ASAP but that is barely enough to pay my bills”
Friend 2: “I filed for unemployment today. Not sure if and when I’ll get back to work.”
Friend 3: “Not doing well with work. A months worth of [local events] have cancelled or postponed. I [can’t make my mortgage payment this month]. I am doing everything I can to get [the funds] together and I have [belief in god and pray] that this will pass and still be able to recover financially in the next few months. ”
These are real people, healthy people, who rely on their work to pay their bills. Keep this very very real pain, and suffering, the literally economic destruction, as people’s lives are destroyed, and their futures crushed. They’re burning the village down to save it for a disease that 98%+ of people survive. I could see this level of quarantine for Ebola, or SARS, or MERS, or the black death. But for a severe flu season?
For the uninformed, like HD:
https://medium.com/@Jason_Scott_Warner/the-sober-math-everyone-must-understand-about-the-pandemic-2b0145881993
Jack, Thanks for sharing a Facebook post. Because that’s what it was.
God help us all if this is how you keep informed.
I read the post anyway, it is the rantings of a hysterical lunatic.
I think we are closing everything and trashing are economy for no reason. The way this is going most of us will be in mortgage foreclosures and maybe lose our jobs and homes. This virus has a 8% death rate on people over age 70. People under 60 can have mild symptoms and a very low death rate. This is just natures way of clearing the decks and saving our economy from heavy social security and other retirement benefits. Maybe just time for us folks over 70 years old to move on. Skip the crowded nursing home and waiting for a bed pan change. Our passing is inevitable. Why ruin the country that has been good for us before we die? Is this too cruel? OK, so no politician could ever say this?
no, HD, it’s math…
no jack, its a fucking facebook post… for fucks sakes are you retarded?
no, sonies, it’s math…
“It’s truly scary how bad JB is bungling this.”
Oh man, JB in charge? Back before Abe Pritzker moved to USA the family were horse thieves and plaguespreaders going back generations in Russia
OK, so, “helmet” “hofer” is an admitted nazi, homophobe, white supremacist… who, on this blog is ‘upvoting’ his comments?
It must be HD and sonies? does anyone disagree?
“who, on this blog is ‘upvoting’ his comments?”
“Dan” (Not Dan #2), some other guys whose names I don’t recall. Sort of surprised it is only 2.
So jack, we can’t agree with someone’s opinion if you don’t agree with their politics? Stop being a fascist.
^ thanks for underlining my point…
jack,
we can have a difference of opinion on many things, but the one thing we agree on is helmethofer is a piece of garbage, and for that, i will take a swig of my craft beer for that.
Of note,i am supporting my local restaurants with lots of carry outs, they’re all dying, they need teh support, order carry out as much as possible so they can make it throough these hard times. JB is really F**ing the state here with his policies. $4,000,000,0000 in the offshore bank means you can do whatever you want without repercussions from the peasant voters. Go vote peasants, go vote for the democrats on your ballots..
“Expects people to have to shelter in place for up to 3 months in the UK.”
the paper that swayed BoJo’s view talks about maintaining transmission ‘suppression’ policies for up to 18 months or more:
“need to be maintained – at least intermittently – for as long as the virus is circulating in the human population, or until a vaccine becomes available. In the case of COVID-19, it will be at least 12-18 months before a vaccine is available”
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
“JB is really F**ing the state here with his policies.”
It has nothing to do with JB.
If this Administration had had enough test kits available, we could be doing what South Korea is doing. We could be testing thousands of people, figuring out where the virus was, and mobilizing those areas without shutting down everything else.
But we have no idea (still) where it is!
This can’t go on until we have a vaccine. We can’t live like this for 18 months.
All powers of the federal government, including the military, should be going towards masks, respirators and making enough testing kits. Nothing else should be happening.
As it is, we have to flatten the curve over the next 2 weeks to save our hospitals and medical staff from the tragedies in Italy and Iran.
And then we need the tests so everyone can go back to work.
Boeing is asking for a $60 billion bailout for the aerospace industry. And Mnuchin told the Senate that if he doesn’t get $1.3 trillion there could be 20% unemployment.
Quit blaming the governors who are ALL doing their jobs as best they can.
Tests! We need more testing!
“Oh man, JB in charge?”
Once again, HH doesn’t live in Illinois.
We all know who the Governor is.
And last I looked who gives a SHIT what your ancestors from 400 years ago were doing in the middle ages. It’s not like they were engineers going to the moon.
My god.
“These are real people, healthy people, who rely on their work to pay their bills. Keep this very very real pain, and suffering, the literally economic destruction, as people’s lives are destroyed, and their futures crushed. They’re burning the village down to save it for a disease that 98%+ of people survive. I could see this level of quarantine for Ebola, or SARS, or MERS, or the black death. But for a severe flu season?”
IT’S NOT THE FUCKING FLU!
Quit listening to the President who knows NOTHING.
We have no immunity to it HD. I just can’t even with your type of stupidity by someone who is supposedly educated.
Did everyone think the Chinese literally crashed their own economy over the last 2 months, literally locking down 730 million people during that time, for FUN? Because it was flu?
Do you NOT read the news and know what is going on in the world?
Virtually no one bought a car for the entire month of February in China, HD. No one went to Apple and bought a phone. Restaurants have gone under there too.
And now it’s here because, no, it wasn’t “contained.”
And yes, the economic damage is going to be very severe. Even after it’s over.
Wake. Up.
“But it’s certain not ‘shut down the entire economy’ worthy.”
Iran just warned its people that if they didn’t do social distancing millions could die.
IT’S NOT THE FUCKING FLU!
“Schools were closed for two days, restaurants were a little slow, things slowed down a bit, but in the scheme of things, it was a minor blip.”
My god. You are so clueless. We went into a recession immediately. The Fed had to do an emergency rate cut, immediately.
Was it deep?
No.
But this could be.
“The dot com bubble was a bigger economic shock.”
The busting of it? Not in the least. The only “shock” was in Silicon Alley in NYC and Silicon Valley. Small impacts because it was isolated in just two metro areas. LA never saw impacts from it busting either.
Chicago sailed right through that. Never even saw any impact from it (but never saw the benefits either.) Did see a slowdown due to 9/11 though.
NYC is about to go on “shelter in place.” I guess all those officials are listening to “hysterical twitter” too. And it’s really tough in San Francisco right now. But the hospitals were starting to get overwhelmed (as they did in Spain) so they felt they had to go to the extreme before it spiraled out of control.
The next 10 days will be critical.
It’s like HD sez, there’s an obvious Option 3, which is what the UK is doing:
“Boris Johnson is standing by his decision not to shut schools yet but insists that if they do, ‘plans are ready to go’ to help parents whose children might lose free school meals if they do.”
JB last Thursday, 3/12:
“The governor was asked what his message is to parents who might not want to have their kids go to school.
“Well you’ve got to make decisions for your own family. There’s no doubt about that, but I would say that remember the guidance that’s been given by experts is large gatherings should be prohibited,” Pritzker said. “And so we’ve done that. We’ve suggested to schools all across the state. We’ve told them not to have major assemblies of their students. It’s OK to be in a classroom.”–SunTimes
In other words, running 4 business days behind Illi-fucking-nois. BoJo’s probably going to cancel school (to the extent he has such power) by the end of the week.
As Sabrina, myself, and pretty much every other DOCTOR, and our SURGEON general has said – ITS NOT THE FLU. It’s a lot worse for our immunocompromised population.
This is not a ‘severe flu season’ – what are you smoking?
“This is not a ‘severe flu season’”
It gets compared to the 18-19 flu pandemic by even very on-point sources, so that is part of it for some people. It’s a question of both writing/presentation skill and reading/listening comprehension.
“– what are you smoking?”
If they are, they’re more likely to end up on the ‘more ill’ end of the symptom spectrum, right?
““But it’s certain not ‘shut down the entire economy’ worthy.”
Iran just warned its people that if they didn’t do social distancing millions could die. ”
That’s a little over a 1% mortality rate (1.2048% for the pedantic twats)
While very concerning, isn’t the end of the world
“BoJo’s probably going to cancel school (to the extent he has such power) by the end of the week.”
Today:
“Schools in Scotland and Wales are to close from Friday in response to the coronavirus epidemic.
It is expected the UK government will announce shortly that schools in England will follow suit.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51928400
“If they are, they’re more likely to end up on the ‘more ill’ end of the symptom spectrum, right?”‘
Absolutely. That’s why it was so bad in china and Italy – lots of smokers.
The virus basically works like this. Infects you -> gets in your lungs–>body mounts a severe immune response. In a normal person with healthy lungs, the immune response causes some damage to the lungs, but the lungs are able to heal themselves. In a smoker, the lungs are already damage and have poor capability to self heal, and the immune response just tears up the lungs. As a result, you can’t oxygenate your blood very well. If you have a vent to do this for you for a while – great. If you don’t, you eventually wear your lungs out – your blood gets hypoxemic, you can’t oxygenate your organs, go into multi organ failure, and die.
In people with cardiac issues, looks like the virus gets into the myocardium and wreaks havoc. If your heart is already weak ( Like in a lot of old people, people with coronary artery disease, etc ), it simply can’t recover —> you go into cardiac failure or arrest, and die.
It’s a nasty virus. Again, not the flu.
Thanks for explanation, Riz.
I am not questioning that this seems to be a nasty little bugger. It just seems the response is bordering on mass hysteria.
We know for fact tens of thousands die from the flu complications in the US every single year. Tens of millions catch it.
Yet, I don’t ever recall Wall Street crashing, schools being shut down, businesses closing, borders being shut down, etc…. for what? 100 or so deaths? 5000 known cases?
Either this is mass hysteria OR the public isn’t being told the full story about this virus.
Russ:
Just one paper on epi modeling in UK and US, so not “the one truth”, but reputable and not carrying an agenda beyond public health (so, perhaps a bit pessimistic):
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
Unchecked death toll prediction for US = 2.5 million. And even that assumes that there is a viable vaccine or antiviral produced.
Viable vaccine is also a predicate to the ‘best case’ of under 200,000 deaths, which also assumes 12-18 months of at least intermittent restrictions of current levels.
Russ,
I think a lot of the ‘hysteria’ is because of the higher mortality rate when compared to the regular flu. Yes, a LOT of people die from the flu every year. But also, we have a vaccine for it, and are familiar with how to treat it. People still die from it given all that, typically the elderly.
That being said – we know this virus is at least 10 times worse than the flu mortality wise, we have no vaccine, and no standard treatment protocol. The elderly and those with comorbid conditions are especially at risk.
The best way to limit those highest at risk from getting the virus is to socially isolate, shut down areas where people congregate etc – this is for the weaker among us.
The reason is because these people will need vents if they get really sick. We don’t have that many vents ( 70-100k? ) – so if this virus infects a similar number of older people as the flu, They are in big, big trouble.
We aren’t shutting down schools, businesses, and tanking our economy for no reason. Trust me, our society values money very highly – but at some point, you have to take the financial hit for the betterment of society.
Yes, this means a lot of peoples 401k accounts are tanked. Those living paycheck to paycheck are in real trouble. Restaurant business is in trouble. Bars are in trouble.
But if we can swallow this hard financial pill for a little while – and save EVEN a few thousand people from death – is that not worth it?
I would do it to save far less.
“But if we can swallow this hard financial pill for a little while – and save EVEN a few thousand people from death – is that not worth it?”
———————————
I have A Modest Proposal.
Let the virus rip. Weeds out the old and unfit. With all us baby boomers now dead, the young’uns will finally be able to own homes and get real jobs.
What’s not to like?
“We aren’t shutting down schools, businesses, and tanking our economy for no reason. Trust me, our society values money very highly – but at some point, you have to take the financial hit for the betterment of society.
I would do it to save far less.”
That’s easy for you say with your savings, job security and income.
For the under 60 person who doesn’t smoke and is just trying to make it in the world, this is depleting their savings, their livelihoods, their businesses. Millions of people of people are going to lose their homes, children are going to be traumatized for life, maybe this is the 2nd time this has happened. Landlords are going to default, people who wanted to retire are going have to work a few years longer (or maybe never retire).
It’s so easy for you to casually say it’s ‘worth it’ but life is for the living, and most of the people dying are already half dead to so speak. The average age of death of people in Italy is 81.
This is mass hysteria that’s going to serious undermine society for a long time.
There’s a middle ground between the martial law that’s happening in some places, and doing nothing at all. it’s quarantining old and unhealthy people, and give them gov. financial assistance in the interim, and let some levers of the world continue to go on.
The imperial paper is complete hysteria that isn’t reflected anywhere in actual experience in the world. “But if we wait more time, surely the models will come to fruition” uh huh.
HD, same academic mental masturbation as the global climate change models that never seem to produce accurate results… garbage in, garbage out.
Who am I going to believe.. my own eyes or the fancy study?
We keep getting told the infection rate is worse, it is more deadly, incubation period longer….. yet where is the tsunami at the hospitals? It isn’t like it just got here into the states last week.
I’d expect hospitals to be over run at this point based on how this was hyped up.
This is mass hysteria driven by 24 hour news cycle, social media soundbites, virtue signaling, politics, and bias journalist who can’t do basic math.
I am not down playing Covid, but at the same time something is not right. The data and response are not adding up.
Russ,
I was at the Northwestern Memorial emergency room a couple of weeks ago. No coronavirus at that point. Waiting room crammed with about 35 people. Hospital was full so ER couldn’t move patients to the hospital. Patients left in the hallway on beds for the night. Doctors couldn’t get to all patients. I asked them what they are going to do when the virus hits. They just shook their heads.
We know what happened in Italy. It can happen here.
“I am not down playing Covid”
C’mon, you totally are. Own it, Russ.
“It’s so easy for you to casually say it’s ‘worth it’ but life is for the living, and most of the people dying are already half dead to so speak. The average age of death of people in Italy is 81.”
HD, honestly, what in the actual F dude. What are you even talking about?
I refuse to respond to your genuinely retarded comments on this matter any further.
Hey, the next few months will be very telling. I think the country is doing a lot to limit spread of this virus, and I hope it helps.
I absolutely hope HD and russ are totally right, that this is a lot of hype that all of us in healthcare are buying into – and that this will be no worse than a bad flu season. That would be amazing.
Let’s just see instead of ‘mentally masturbating’ about it.
Look!! It’s the mythical 3d way!!
“Boris Johnson has ordered the first nationwide shutdown of schools in British history to try to stem the spread of the coronavirus.
Exams were cancelled as schools and nurseries prepared to shut their gates indefinitely from Friday with only the children of key workers and vulnerable pupils able to attend basic facilities.
Pupils were left in limbo as Mr Johnson took the unprecedented step and indicated that grades would be awarded through an alternative system, but failed to set out details.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-boris-johnson-to-announce-closure-of-schools-in-england-qkpglb79b
AND:
“The government has announced a three-month ban on evictions in an effort to protect renters during the height of the coronavirus pandemic.
Landlords will be prevented from initiating court proceedings to evict tenants from social or private rented accommodation.
The measure forms part of emergency legislation to fight the virus. The government had faced criticism for announcing a three-month mortgage holiday for homeowners on Tuesday, without equivalent measures for renters.”
Guess BoJo decided to pull the lever, too.
Riz, you know those waiting rooms today are filled with people not with Wuhan Virus, but with other respiratory issues. I personally know people who thought they had breathing issues and found out whoops, just a bad cold. That’s the case in South Korea, they tested hundreds of thousands of people looking for the virus, and only a few thousand, of the hundreds of thousands they tested, actually had the wuhan virus.
Gary, you of all people know that what happens in Italy with it’s pitiful socialized medicine won’t happen here. \
Pardon me and Russ for being the voice of reason and sanity here among the sea of hysterical masses calling for a shutdown of the economy with little data to support any of these.
You should look outside your bubbles sometime, there’s a whole world out there.
“Guess BoJo decided to pull the lever, too.”
He did, because of that hysterical academic study from that Imperial college saying a minimum of half a million people will die. That GIGO study will get any politicians attention. And it worked too. it’s too bad, the UK is now like a lemming following the rest of the world off the financial cliff. Sad times we live in, sad times.
An update re Italy’s experience w coronavirus for ostriches to consider:
March 13 (5 days ago): “I’m sick of reading this troll’s bs & lies.
A known fact is that Italy has experienced approx 1266 deaths ‘NOW 2978 DEATHS on 3/18/20’ (includes 250 deaths in one day – yesterday ‘NOW INCLUDES 475 DEATHS IN PAST 24 HOURS ON 3/18/20′) out of 17,6600 confirmed cases “NOW 35,713 CASES ON 3/18/20’ .
NOW A 8.33% DEATH RATE. Italy’s population is 60 mil or 20% the population of US”
Leaders who are apparently incapable of quickly understanding & then quickly leading a competent response re issues w fatal consequences which increase exponentially will likely be one termers despite all the kings horse’s asses and all the kings alternate reality explanations & proclamations. Stunning to focus on floating a plan to pardon a guilty witness who could testify agst him post presidency at this moment in time. jmho
“Gary, you of all people know that what happens in Italy with it’s pitiful socialized medicine won’t happen here.”
The excuse I hear for all the Trump cultists is that Italy is “socialist” so therefore their hospitals are bad.
Yet, the northern part of the country is the 5th largest economy in Europe and quite wealthy with great medical care.
But clueless have to continue to be clueless.
US is already way behind because the Fed’s ignored this for weeks. They should have been building new hospitals. The VA should have been put into action. Plans should have been put into place for healthcare worker protection. And for mass quarantine for patients who have it, but don’t need hospitalization. They had these in Wuhan. It helped to stop the spread of the virus throughout entire families and helped with isolation because you weren’t just in a hotel room by yourself somewhere (Wuhan originally tried quarantining in hotel rooms but it didn’t work).
Sports stadiums need to be commandeered for the quarantines.
Why are we not learning from what has happened in other countries?
“It isn’t like it just got here into the states last week.”
It didn’t just get into Italy in the last week either. It’s been there for weeks too.
Huh.
The rise in infected cases and death toll in US is near exponential. The first patient confirmed to be due to COVID in IL just died in Chicago only after a few days of being in the hospital. There must have been many more patients who died in the past few months all over US that were just not tested due to the incompetent CDC. The situation is getting worse day by day and I can see that US will outperform China and Italy in infected cases and death toll.
Hope I’m wrong, but I won’t be surprised if the virus will be called US virus instead of Wuhan virus in the end.
“Gary, you of all people know that what happens in Italy with it’s pitiful socialized medicine won’t happen here.”
A few weeks ago I checked some stats and saw that Italy has significantly more hospital beds/ 1000 people than the US. Cuomo already knows his hospitals can’t handle what’s coming, which is why Trump ordered the red cross ship there. Of course, the real issue is ventilators and that’s why the drastic action to slow the spread.
“Italy has significantly more hospital beds/ 1000 people than the US”
TBF, US has *many* more ICU/Critical Care beds per capita than anywhere except Germany, Austria, Luxembourg (still “more” just somewhat more).
Turkey supposedly has more, but I’m more than slightly dubious about the quality standard for that number.
“Hope I’m wrong, but I won’t be surprised if the virus will be called US virus instead of Wuhan virus in the end.”
Seriously, you’re spreading CCP Chinese Communist Party propaganda. This is exactly what China is doing. It is undisputed that the Wuhan virus started in Wuhan, the communist Chinese government covered it up for weeks, totally bungled their response, and is now using people like you to spread propaganda that it’s the US virus.
WTF is wrong with you dude.
“NOW A 8.33% DEATH RATE. Italy’s population is 60 mil or 20% the population of US””
OMG .21% is the NORWAY DEATH RATE.
OMG 0.0034722222222222% is the Illinois Death RATE
The sky is falling, shut down the economy, quarantine everyone, destroy the small business, bankruptcy the city and government!
** 00.3472222222%….
You know it’s too early to calculate a death rate for Illinois.
IL Death rate is up to 0.95%. A 275% increase in one day!!
[yes, also bs ‘data’ that says even less than it appears to.]
“Who am I going to believe.. my own eyes or the fancy study?”
You tell’em Russ! Does anyone know anybody personally who has it? Exactly. Does anyone here actually believe that “Tom Hanks” has it? LOL !!! Precisely. This is a Sandy Hook-level pizzagate pedo-elite BS campaign being used to slam non-retroactive socialist policies into the US.
HD: You might read more. After the Globalist/CIA Hong Kong antifa riots/coup failed, that fat slob Zio-neocon Pompeo is now attacking China using the virus. Did you see the reason China blamed the USA? It was based on Senate testimony that slipped out from CDC’s Dr. Robert Redfield commenting about COVID in the USA before the outbreak in China.
China really isn’t that authoritarian, they aren’t forcing gay-anal and transgender on their country’s people. The US’ social media companies do censor to higher degree than China does to its citizens.
The region of Italy getting hit is Salvini’s area. Hmmmm. Iran got hit, and low-and-behold, wow look here “pure luck” LOL: https://christiansfortruth.com/israeli-scientists-claim-its-pure-luck-they-were-already-working-on-a-covid-19-vaccine-prior-to-the-outbreak/
HH is truly insane.
What I’ve been saying is, in my opinion, shared by many millions of people, and there are prominent academics saying that we should not jump off the cliff yet.
HH is blaming isreal and america for the wuhan bat virus.
Keep this in mine people, before you down vote my comments, the real down votes should be reserved for HH.
I’ve never said we shouldn’t take it seriously, just taht we’ve taken it TOO seriously. Please stop down voting me. Save your down votes for the real nutjob.
The same shifty politicians and their lying media, who perpetrated the “collusion with Russia” hoax for nearly 3 years, are promoting yet another BS story: the COVID virus will kill millions unless government turns our cities and states into virtual internment camps while destroying the Trump economy—just in time for the next election and Sanders’ or Biden’s call for SOCIALIST economic measures to address an economic disaster created, not by a virus, but by a PANIC. Trump is forced to play his part in this scam, in the hope that this melodrama will end with him as the man who saved America from the virus that could have ended the American dream. If he didn’t go along, the scum media would be holding him accountable for every gramndma’s death. Average age 80, those with multiple previous conditions: PANIC BS https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says
It won’t end here. It is all but certain that once the virus runs its course, the politicians and the media will credit government restrictions of freedom of movement, assembly and economic activity with “saving millions of lives.” Like the Patriot Act. The lying media will prepare the dumb masses to accept the same loss of freedoms during the next “deadly pandemic” which, like this one, will not even approach the worst seasonal flu.
How about the lack of media-generated panic during the 2009-2010 H1N1 flu epidemic while Obama was President? The virus infected (so they say) 63 million Americans and killed 12,000. Now, however, while Trump is President, 370 million Americans are supposed to hunker down in fear because of 187 deaths from COVID-19.
Sorry HD, this is orchestrated. And no, China is not the ones who hired “Tom Hanks” as the out-front spokesperson.
“How about the lack of media-generated panic during the 2009-2010 H1N1 flu epidemic while Obama was President? The virus infected (so they say) 63 million Americans and killed 12,000.”
I think if we knew that only 12,000 would die and not overwhelm our healthcare system there wouldn’t be that much media coverage today. The problem is that H1N1 had a .02% mortality rate compared to this thing at 3 – 4% on average. Do the math.
Gary, the problem is the mortality rate is based on known cases, not how many people who are likely infected and recovered / showed no symptoms. Even the NYT admitted in an article that the actual cases are probably 5-10x’s as high. When you extrapolate based on this fact, the mortality rate is similar to the normal flu.
Social media wasn’t nearly as big of a factor in 2009, so maybe that is why h1n1 wasn’t seen as such a big deal.
Twitter, celebrities, the press, etc have a way now of spreading news with little to no critical analyses. Just memes and virtue signaling. The sheer number of people who can tweet, forward, and make things go viral has a way of drowning out rational voices.
BREAKING: Percent of Deaths from the Coronavirus Compared to Deaths From the Flu in the US Reach 0.7% (187/22,000) – The World Has Gone Mad!
Coronavirus: Newsom says 56% of Californians are expected to be infected with COVID-19
Gavin Newsom is a pedo-satanic bohemian grove Podesta wannbe. Globohomo epstein Creep. Any guy who slicks his hair like that is a weirdo, even HD would agree.
The current Pope is a Newsom clone, he can’t be trusted either.
https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2020/03/18/video-u2s-bono-performs-sing-across-rooftops-inspired-by-italians-quarantined-over-coronavirus/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+breitbart+%28Breitbart+News%29
Just like “Tom Hanks”.
Globohomo pervs, of course they’re gaslighting us.
https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/before-abuse-scandal-bono-dedicated-song-to-his-old-friend-cardinal-mccarri
“When you extrapolate based on this fact, the mortality rate is similar to the normal flu.”
So, using Gary’s numbers, 3-4% is only 10x 0.02%? Is that how math works?
Also, the “normal flu” has a reasonably effective vaccine, that a reasonable percentage of people get. And a high percentage of the cohort most likely to die from it get the vaccine. All of which lessen the spread and the severity of infections. Which doesn’t even mention that many/most older people have at least a little natural resistance, due to multiple prior exposures to similar-ish influenza viruses.
Or are you down playing COVID, Russ?
This is insanity… shutting down the economy and having the government throw trillions of dollars around is fucking insanity… are you fucking kidding me that a casino doesn’t have enough money to stop operations for a month or two without needing a bailout? A massive airline manufacturer doesn’t have a few months of cash? Airlines were making record profits, where did they all go? Buybacks, dividends and CEO bonuses thats where… rather than shoring up their balance sheets… fucking disgusting how badly the average american is being raped right now!
“how badly the average american is being raped right now”
You do know that you are anything but the “average American”, right?
I mean, me, too, and Russ, and Gary and Riz and HD. Any protestations to the contrary, definitely not “average Americans”.
“fucking disgusting how badly the average american is being raped right now”
The World – Fixed it for ya.
This isnt about a virus, it’s a coordinated take down of the everything bubble. When Americans realize they probably already had this and it was a fucking sore throat and cold they are going to need tanks in the streets to stop the angry mob because somebody is going to fucking hang for this.
The most interesting part of this psychological warfare is the numbers. They are true. The lie is in your face. Italy, 42,000 infections. Sounds scarry doesnt it? It went exponential, sounds scarry right? Its not a lie. But what they arent telling you is thats only .00007 of the population. 99% of fatalities had a comorbididty and avg. death age was 79. By the time the sheep wake up ther will be either martial law or Trump will let the mob loose. Frankly, Im hoping he lets the mob loose because some motherfuckers needed to go a long time ago.
“…When Americans realize they probably already had this…”
I know I got a 103 fever, some burning lungs (imagine taking a HUGE bong hit) and a bad cough, and a really, really sore throat for about 3 or 4 days, back in January, before the first official Wuhan Virus case was even officially announced in Chicago. If I had COPD or something, I could see how hospitalization would be a precaution, but for mostly healthy people like myself, I was just fine. My kid had no symptoms, my wife caught it and said she had a sore throat for a few days. Anecdotally, this seems to be the case all over from what I read on various places on the internet.
I think this Wuhan virus escaped Wuhan shortly after it was discovered there and has been running rampant for months, and we only discovered it recently because most people haven’t been tested because they were asymptomatic or didn’t suspect Wuhan virus.
If in a year or two, the NIH finds out that a significant portion of the population has already been infected, and our purposely causing the Second Great Depression was for nothing, it just makes us more reluctant to do this all over again when a real pandemic arises, like MERS or SARS, with death rates magnitudes over the Wuhan virus.
Right – my wife and I are all comparing stories of how bad the chest cold or bronchitis was in Jan and Feb this year. Almost everyone we talk with had it. And the common denominator we keep hearing over and over that made them think it was a little different than a typical chest cold was the fatigue. Ive gotten a chest cold every year of my life when the weather turned and NEVER had to take naps mid day from fatigue during the illness. Wife too and same with others. Other than the fatigue it was a run of the mill respiratory virus basically Call me crazy but the skepticism is off the charts in my circle right now.
“You do know that you are anything but the “average American”, right?”
uh yes?
I’m not talking about me, I’ll be fine, probably… I’m talking about just about everyone else
“Other than the fatigue it was a run of the mill respiratory virus ”
As a former smoker (like 20 years ago) my lungs felt like I took a huge unfiltered bong hit for about three days. It was uncomfortable and I can’t recall having anything like this in my life. I too had a sore throat and fatigue, I was out of it for a few days. If I had COPD or some other preexisting condition, I would have been a little concerned, but it wasn’t that big of a deal. The fact that I had a fever, and I *rarely* get fevers, makes me think that this wasn’t the seasonal flu, but it could have been Wuhan Virus that was/is running rampant around the world in cold weather locales. I’m not about to go wait in line at some grimy contaminated site to get tested, and in all reality, it probably wasn’t COVID. But I’ll hedge my bets, and say that all the symptoms I had were textbook Wuhan Virus, and I had it roughly during the same week the first case was officially reported in Chicago.
f I had COPD or some other preexisting condition
Unfortunately, one of the pre-existing conditions that puts you at higher risk is Diabetes (10% of Americans), and another is Obesity (40% of Americans).
Also, Sabrina, can we get rid of the posts from HH with links from straight up Nazi sites?
“Unfortunately, one of the pre-existing conditions that puts you at higher risk is Diabetes (10% of Americans), and another is Obesity (40% of Americans).”
And even with those pre-existing conditions, the survival rate is still extraordinarily high. I read something that 8 out of 10 people over the age of 90 survive just fine.
New York just shut down. People can’t even leave their house except for food, gas or medical treatment. Same with California.
Welcome to another great depression. I promise that 99%+ of us will live to tell our children and grandchildren stories of the times we were forced to hunt squirrel, possum and rat because supply lines, food production and medicine factories all shut down, because the Wuhan virus sickened unhealthy elderly people with multiple comorbidities.
It’s getting worse day by day. # of US will hit the top spot in a week if # keep on increasing by 5000 each day. Death tolls usually follow after a week.
Italy has not peaked out yet despite their curfews and lock-down. Why would expect them to work here?
I hear that many Hp are already running out of N95 masks and having nursing staff take care of patients with cheap masks. Hp are asking you to donate masks! I saw people lining up outside of an ER.
This is not going to end well.
The only reason so many cases were reported yesterday was that it was 5 days worth of data, as the backlog of testing was finally coming through with reports per Dr. Birx
“Call me crazy but the skepticism is off the charts in my circle right now.”
Might want to diversify your circle.
With the shelter in place / marshall law coming, it’s safe to say that the open houses this weekend won’t be open!
“With the shelter in place / marshall law coming”
————————-
“Marshall law” — is that when Deputy Barney Fife comes in, takes names, and kicks ass?
“IL Death rate is up to 0.95%. A 275% increase in one day!!”
IL death rate now down to 0.85%. A 10% *decrease*. Let’s declare victory!
marshall/martial – android dictation…
“android dictation”
Coulda sworn you were a cyborg, but I guess android makes sense, too.
“I’m talking about just about everyone else”
I obviously know that you are right, and agree, but when did sonies start worrying about average people?
For all the skeptics out there that think the mortality rate on this thing is greatly exaggerated…because, among other reasons, the denominator might be much bigger than we think…if this is just like the flu then why are hospital systems across the world getting overwhelmed? The normal flu doesn’t do that.
Guys…..it’s not the freaking flu.
Is it possible there were scattered cases back in January and you got it and recovered? Absolutely. But obviously it had not spread to the point it’s spreading now. Lots of people will get covid and be totally fine. Most, actually. The problem is the SPREAD. If you gave every freaking 70- something your old influenza, and they had 0 immunity or a flu shot, most of them would die from that TOO. That’s the problem – we have NO immunity and NO vaccine. Once we do, it will become just another ‘flu shot’ we have to take for covid, if that. Until then, Keep watching the numbers.
“That’s the problem – we have NO immunity and NO vaccine.”
Stop being part of the conspiracy that’s supposed to do some thing or the other Riz–I can’t quite keep track if this is supposed to be an anti-Trump thing, or a black helicopter/Illuminati thing, or a pro-Bernie thing or WTF. All I know is whether you are being a fascist or an anarchist or whatever, you should stop.[/s]
I mean, duh, shouldn’t any reasonably educated or smart person be able to figure out that is the issue? No immunity + no vaccine = big problem.
Unless someone is engaging in willful blindness, or carrying water for some nonsense agenda.
Things will get worse here. There are only 7 countries that hit the 10,000 mark to date. It’s called C7 (corona 7). US is the fastest to hit 1,000 to 10,000 amongst them.
US was not the fastest to hit 10 to 100 in death (China 8 days, Italy 9 days, US 14 days), but was the fastest to hit 100 to 200 (China and US 3 days, Italy 4 days). We will see how US performs in 100 to 1,000 compared to the other two countries.
My Tesla is faster than a Ferrari, you know.
But Riz & anon(tfo), it’s easy for you to say “OMG we’re overwhelmed”…until the 40% of the state that doesn’t have more than $400 at any given time is reduced to eating possums and squirrels they trap in the local parks. It’s so easy for you to just casually dismiss this as “oh we need to stop the spread with draconian measures!” while the citizens of the state, 95% of whom will get the disease without complications, now can’t even feed their families. What is wrong with you people. My phone has been ringing off the hook with real people with real money problems who fear that they won’t have enough food for their children, or gas to put into their job to get back to work. The $1,200 from the federal government covers 1 months rent and unemployment, if they’re eligible, is a pittance. And those with a little savings, maybe a small business owner with $20,000 or $30,000 in cash, will soon burn through all of that paying vendors and employees and rent.
But JB, and his voters like you guys, with your six figure incomes, and family money, and security, you applaud the economic devastation that JB, the billionaire with $4,000,000,000 is leaving in his wake. He listens to ‘science’ and ‘mathematicians’… ironically, there wasn’t a single economist in his ‘team’ of crackpots. I feel like the guy read the comments to his twitter feed for reaffirmation and his fans all applaud his ‘progressive’ and ‘bold’ efforts to put half the state’s working population into food insecurity, so that they’re at the park trapping geese just to feed their family.
This entire situation is a disgrace. And then when the death totals are low, maybe a few thousand by the end of the year, JB will applaud his efforts and say, “LOOK what I did, it worked!” And then he’ll tell us that he has to raise taxes, again, to pay for the revenue shortfall because of all those state employees paid to sit at home for 3 or 4 months.
Absolutely amazing opinion piece from the NYT. Everyone here should read it.
Is Our Fight Against Coronavirus Worse Than the Disease?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing.html
Fuck off HD. You are quite the douche…
I was here in 2008 and told everyone buy, buy, buy Lincoln Park properties. Today I will tell you to sell everything. Companies with the slimmest of margins profited in the longest Bull market on record. It’s over! Spending more money than you make will no longer fuel the economy forward. This is the end of capitalism as we all know it… and it only took a couple of weeks.
Best of luck to all…
“Fuck off HD. You are quite the douche…
http://www.grouprecipes.com/78561/roast-possum-with-apples-and-yams.html
HD is making an excellent point! We have no right to healthcare and no safety net. So even a financial breeze will knock a lot of people over. This is a financial tornado!
The infected per population ratio is now greater in US than in China. Tramp says this is a war, but we have lost this war in merely two weeks. Our medical system and hygiene are for sure #1 (from the bottom).
Many hospitals have a floor full of COVID patients approaching max capacity of ventilators and have run out of N95 masks. Many patients in the ICU are younger than 50.
Hope none of us will end up in the hospital! Or should we catch the infection now while ventilators are still available?
If you guys weren’t trump haters, would you trust the numbers from China? They are obvious lies. 5 million people left Wuhan right after the outbreak to visit family all over China for new years. You really think that contained things to 80,000 people or 0.005% of the population? lolercaust
This virus is going to kill 10-20% of the 70+ crowd and kill less than half a percent of everyone else. 80%+ of infected persons barely show any symptoms. That’s why China can get away with these obvious lies about infections.
Yes, it’s the Trump haters who are gullible and believe China:
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-concerned-china-covering-full-extent-coronavirus-outbreak/story?id=68824019
Regardless of what the # are in China, it is NOW here and everywhere.
Do you trust the # reported here? ONLY 24 deaths reported yesterday. I’m hearing that many hospitals are having fatality on a daily basis in IL, so how can it be ONLY 24 in the entire nation?
When the death toll hits 1,000 or 10,000 in a few days are you still going to blame everything to china. Let’s say china fabricated their # by half, the infected and death #s will still be greater in US in the end. Our medical system, supply chain, and hygiene quality have clearly failed BEFORE starting the war.
We are already among the WORST 5 countries hit the hardest by the germ. The matter is whether we are going to be the worst or not. We will see the result in a week or two. WAKE UP.
I agree with HD (!) that this response might be overwrought.
Shutting down is fine for a couple of weeks if medical experts believe it could help, but I don’t support having this go on and on. I understand we need to keep the pressure off of health facilities, so let’s check back after these two weeks and see if caseload growth is slowing. If it seems to be, maybe some of the more draconian measures can be relaxed. If caseloads are still growing after a 2-week shutdown, perhaps it just isn’t the answer.
I really worry about small businesses and anyone living paycheck to paycheck. It’s also possible the damage to the broader economy could have long-term ramifications like major companies going out of business and millions losing their jobs. Is it worth trading millions of jobs to save lives? How many lives saved are worth going into an economic depression? Hard to put a monetary value on a life, but we might face this conundrum soon.
Where HD and I probably part company (because he’s a dyed in the wool conservative and probably thinks the market solves all problems), is that I believe this situation points up a big flaw of capitalism when applied to healthcare.
I’m all for free enterprise when it comes to healthcare research and development. Competition is a good thing when it encourages people to take chances to develop new biotech drugs, for instance. I would never want to nationalize healthcare. Bad idea.
But there needs to be more of a government presence, too. In a health system where capitalism and profits are first priority, there’s not enough economic incentive for companies to stockpile things we need in an emergency like masks or vaccines. Or even to create new antibiotics (check how few new ones have been developed, which puts us all at risk of bacterial infections that don’t respond to existing antibiotics).
Now we’re scrambling and spending trillions that the government doesn’t have, and the economy is on the brink.
Maybe we could have avoided this had some of our national defense budget been diverted many years ago to pandemic preparation, including manufacture of gowns, masks, hospital beds, vaccine research, etc. All of this could have been done by private companies funded by maybe $10 billion a year in government money.
It seems like very little to spend (even if I’m low-balling it by a factor of 10) for us to avoid the situation we’re in now. A pandemic insurance policy, if you will, funded by all of us (since we’re all threatened by pandemics just as we are by things Congress seems to have no trouble spending on, like terrorism prevention).
But Republicans would never go for that. They’ve spent 40 years telling us the government is the problem, not the solution, and that it should be “drowned in the bathtub.” They’d rather pretend everything is great (as they did this time and in the years leading up to 2008) and basically argue that government spending is only OK if it goes to missiles and warplanes.
They’ve convinced an entire generation of Americans that the government can’t do anything right and doesn’t deserve proper funding or elected officials with any expertise (Trump, Palin, etc.). Now we’re all paying the price.
Dan #2,
I’ll agree that the government wasn’t prepared, for all sorts of reasons, for first of all not having a system in place for mass testing; and secondly, all of our masks and gloves are made in China. You can see in the news that the 3M plants that made masks in China have effectively been nationalized by China.
A NYT article with the headline “The World Needs Masks. China Makes Them — But Has Been Hoarding Them.” We didn’t even have the capacity to make masks anymore because 3M wanted to save a few pennies so their executives could buy summer homes in Minnesota and northern Michigan (somebody on this board is really familiar with that!).
If anything, what is happening right now IS the evidence that government is too powerful. We’ve got Bernie saying that businesses should be shut down because of coronavirus, and then if they ask for assistance (after being forcibly closed), they must sell shares of their companies to the government and give workers a place on the corporate boards. That’s pure thuggery….”that’s a nice business you got there, buddy; how’d you like if I shut you down for a bit…”
“Or even to create new antibiotics (check how few new ones have been developed, which puts us all at risk of bacterial infections that don’t respond to existing antibiotics).”
My significant other works in medical research, and there is plenty of government research into antibiotics. Its just that they are really expensive to make, and not lucrative in the marketplace, because they become last resort antibiotics, they don’t tend to be used very often and are not profitable. But the government is still funding them.
” A pandemic insurance policy, if you will, funded by all of us (since we’re all threatened by pandemics just as we are by things Congress seems to have no trouble spending on, like terrorism prevention).”
Fair enough, but where was the government during SARS, MERS, Bird Flu and Ebola? Why didn’t the government stock up then?
Because where you and I do agree is that of the few things government should do is prepare for pandemics.
I just disagree with the actual, on the ground, real world data that shows the wuhan virus is nowhere near as serious as the ‘modelers’ say it is.
https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894
Evidence over hysteria — COVID-19
(long read, lots of charts and linked studies)
But I’m done here for a while, done posting here, yelling into the void. i’m using my time off to do some productive things, and i’m spending my time helping the less fortunate, and actually doing some good for those who have been affected adversely by gov JB’s twitter hysterias. I’ll report back in a few weeks.
HD,
Since you insist on using the term “Wuhan” to describe this virus in a nativist and ignorant fashion, I’ll call it the “Trump Virus” since many say it’s the orange orangutan’s fault it got out of hand here.
Whatever we call it, let me just add that the NYT op-ed you linked to earlier was indeed excellent. I liked it so much I shared with a bunch of friends and relatives, one of whom has a graduate degree from Yale in a health field. He agreed with the article.
So we can agree on something. Have a good night.
I wonder how this is going to change the city vs. suburbs dynamic going forward
I can’t imagine people living in dense areas are very happy right now
I’m sure a lot of people won’t be laughing at the preppers in the heartland anymore.
“I’m sure a lot of people won’t be laughing at the preppers in the heartland anymore.”
Why not? Sure, I do wish I had an AR-15 and a handgun, but I’m not losing sleep for not having them. I’d be more concerned if I were in the heartland or deep red south, armed to the gills, but with little or no ICU care within several hours’ drive.
+10,000 cases and +100 death in a single day… We’ll surpass Italy in mere 2 days and China in 4 days (may be sooner).
If 100 people die over a 14 day period like in China, that is only 1,400 deaths. If 500 x 14 like Italy, then 7,000.
It’s even worse than what I was expecting. When will a complete LOCK-DOWN like China take place? Italian type lock down does not work. Better late than never unless you want the virus to be called Tramp virus or US virus. Stay in home for 4 weeks or start seeing you friends and family pass away.
“+10,000 cases and +100 death in a single day… We’ll surpass Italy in mere 2 days and China in 4 days (may be sooner).”
———————–
True and I appreciate the sentiment, but part of that increase was a backlog of tests. The flip side of that is all the untested people.
Selah.
Supposedly this page tracks the testing in the US by day. I’m not seeing the big increase we were promised. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/testing-in-us.html
Let’s remember that weeks ago we were promised that “millions of beautiful tests” were being shipped.
They’ve prioritized testing in the worst states like CA and NY only to health care workers and those with symptoms because they simply don’t have enough tests and the time for “containment” has passed.
Ugh.
Huge failure.
If everyone was tested, we’d know that Rand Paul has it, he’d self-quarantine, and those around him would too and they’d be tested, and then you wouldn’t have to have the whole building or whatnot locked down. Just a select group of people.
But now, we have the whole country on lock down.
“I can’t imagine people living in dense areas are very happy right now”
What do you mean? I WANT to be in a dense area. I can walk to super markets. Don’t have to touch a gas pump. Can walk to my work. Don’t have to ride the Metra. Best hospitals, including ICUs, in the world are in the major cities.
Even in terms of safety from crime. You’re much more “safe” in a high rise than sitting in your SFH in the suburbs with a much smaller police force.
“We didn’t even have the capacity to make masks anymore because 3M wanted to save a few pennies so their executives could buy summer homes in Minnesota and northern Michigan (somebody on this board is really familiar with that!).”
Oh, I’m sure in the preparations for prior pandemics (including H1N1 and Ebola) the mask and equipment issue was very much a part of what needed to be done.
It will all come out after this is over, much the same way the government’s lack of preparation for a terrorist attack came out after 9/11. Signals were missed. Some of our defenses were flawed. Things were changed (locked cockpit doors, for one.)
They will be changed in America moving forward too.
We just have to get through this crisis right now.
And that Medium article was SHIT written by someone with no medical background. They have removed it.
And I can’t even believe HD is STILL on here saying it’s JB’s “hysteria.”
Sure Jan.
“I understand we need to keep the pressure off of health facilities, so let’s check back after these two weeks and see if caseload growth is slowing.”
The reality is staring all of us in the face and it’s in China right now.
They didn’t reopen coffee shops, restaurants etc. outside of Wuhan until 6 to 7 weeks after they went on lockdown. Some things, like the Disney parks, still aren’t fully open.
Wuhan isn’t fully open either. They are only starting to loosen the restrictions there and it’s been 8 weeks.
The reality is, we’re looking at 6 to 8 weeks, depending on how bad the outbreak is in your city/town.
Look at what it did to the Chinese economy. The US will be no different. Neither will Europe. Everything WILL shut down. Just a matter of how quickly it will come back.
But it’s not going to be 2 weeks. Sorry.
“If you guys weren’t trump haters, would you trust the numbers from China?”
China’s been lying from the beginning. You can’t trust any of their numbers. Same with Iran. But Italy is on the up and up. Unfortunately. Same with Spain and France.
“This is the end of capitalism as we all know it… and it only took a couple of weeks.”
If this isn’t bullish, I don’t know what is. Lol.
“But JB, and his voters like you guys, with your six figure incomes, and family money, and security, you applaud the economic devastation that JB, the billionaire with $4,000,000,000 is leaving in his wake.”
California is the 6th largest economy in the world.
Gavin shut it down before Illinois was closed.
He must be clueless too.
“With the shelter in place / marshall law coming, it’s safe to say that the open houses this weekend won’t be open!”
The MLS has agreed that all showings must stop. Under MLS rules, if you refuse showings at your property, you cannot be listed as an active property but they are waiving that rule right now. So all the properties can stay listed even though no one can go look at them.
This does bring up an interesting point. How much will be the pent up demand be by May when the restrictions are likely lifted again?
Closings in June and July are likely to be huge numbers.
Sabrina, I agree with just about everything else you’ve got to say except being in a densely populated area right now.
Trust me, you don’t want to be out in bufu, but you’d be much better off out an hour or two outside of Chicago in Indiana or Wisconsin somewhere small. Somewhere within driving distance to a top notch hospital, but nowhere near the city.
“Somewhere within driving distance to a top notch hospital, but nowhere near the city.”
We already have it in the city. Have had it for months.
What this pandemic also confirms is that humans are a traveling bunch. We’re all still seeking out adventure. It’s truly amazing how many people travel, even internationally, basically every day. For work, school, pleasure. It has become a part of our everyday lives now.
Nothing strange about 25,000 Americans flying into China every day. Or 100,000 going into Europe every day.
Truly remarkable.
Only now, with everything shut down, does it become apparent how “global” the world really is.
I have some good properties lined up to feature this week.
We might as well have some kind of distraction, given everything else that’s going on. Why not talk about some of Chicago’s pretty real estate?
“If this isn’t bullish, I don’t know what is. Lol.”
————————————
Let me give you a clue: Bucktown going South of Armitage.
“The MLS has agreed that all showings must stop.”
Not exactly true. Just got this in an email from CAR a few hours ago:
“CAR, however, strongly recommends that its members and members of the real estate industry avoid face-to-face real estate practices, including in-person showings, as much as practicable until it is safe to do so. Members are strongly encouraged to find alternative ways to engage in showings, such as virtual tours and video conferencing. Members should consult with their sellers and managing brokers to ensure compliance with any company policies that may be put in place to keep people safe.”
”True and I appreciate the sentiment, but part of that increase was a backlog of tests. The flip side of that is all the untested people.”
I guess there is a back-log every day now. Is there also a back-log of fatality?
May be CDC cannot keep up with the calculation any more. it’s time to purchase a Huawai super computer.
Wondering if any of the very smart people here can help figure this one out. I’m very interested in how much testing is being done. Above, on March 22 I posted a link to the CDC site where they track the tests being done. You would think that is pretty good data.
Then I found this: https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/03/rapid-progress-on-covid-testing.php and went to the source data and found it to be consistent with the graph in the blog post but like 10 X higher than the CDC data.
Any thoughts out there?
CDC figures do not include commercial testing sites.
“This does bring up an interesting point. How much will be the pent up demand be by May when the restrictions are likely lifted again?
Closings in June and July are likely to be huge numbers.”
well that is assuming people actually have any money left to go out and buy a house… lmao… real estate market is going to be fucked for a minimum of 6 months… mortgage rates are skyrocketing, nobody has stable employment, yeah, lets go buy a house in a super expensive city! brilliant sabrina…
I’ve been using the Department of Public Health sites for each state, as it has a nice breakdown by county too, for number of cases, as well as the number of tests per state. Don’t know how reliable that is. You can usually just search department of health, coronavirus, and the state.
https://www.dph.illinois.gov/topics-services/diseases-and-conditions/diseases-a-z-list/coronavirus
You can’t see all 50 together, but can look at states of interest.
“You can usually just search department of health, coronavirus, and the state.”
Or you can use the source data Gary referred to:
https://covidtracking.com/data/
Which then links to “best available” data, and gives an assessment of the data quality. Sure, they may be wrong, but at least you get a second opinion.
“Since you insist on using the term “Wuhan” to describe this virus in a nativist and ignorant fashion, I’ll call it the “Trump Virus” since many say it’s the orange orangutan’s fault it got out of hand here.”
Please, Dan #2, *virtue signaler extraordinaire*, in the future, don’t ever use the following terms:
Lyme Disease (Lyme, CT)
Ebola (river) Virus
Zika, SARS (south asian)
MERS (Middle east)
Spanish Flu (1918)
Legionnaire’s disease
Norovirus (norwalk, OH)
West Niles Virus
Guinea Worm
Marburg Virus Disease
German Measles..
Dan #2, nothing stopping you from calling it the orange man virus, but all you’re doing is confirming to the world that you are infected with:
Trump Derangement Syndrome.
Gross. Stop infecting others, passing your virus through the interwebs.
” don’t ever use the following terms”
Several of those are not reflective of the origin/discovery location, anyway, so sure.
“SARS (south asian)”
GTFOOH! “Severe Acute”, not “South Asian”. You get this list from Facebook?
The COVID-19 virus is SARS-CoV-2, where the SARS virus is SARS-CoV.
” …don’t ever use the following terms…”
Wasn’t this lying sack o s— taking a two week break from posting on cc? Or was hd’s announcement of that break just another lie like hd’s recounting of his recent “I had a nearly coronavirus flu experience” which he only ‘recalled’ & posted when hd believed it would support his strident denials of reality?
“real estate market is going to be fucked for a minimum of 6 months…”
Only because many of the rich were going to use their stock market stash for down payments. Unless that bounces back quickly, which is a distinct possibility.
“Nobody has stable employment”
Um…doctors, lawyers, nurses, university professors, everyone in finance, dentists, vets, tech engineers, teachers.
I could go on.
52% of those with college degrees have jobs where they can work from home.
The big issue with this recession will be apartment rentals. How many service workers were renting in the new luxury high rises with roommates? Many of them were making great coin at great restaurants. And now, they’re making nothing.
Look for chaos in the rental market even if the Congress gives them each $1,000. I hope the big rental companies waive the April 1 rent. I know some small landlords that are doing so.
Hang in there everyone.
I agree I have Trump derangement syndrome and I’m proud of it. I question the character, morals and judgment of anyone who doesn’t share this derangement with me.
He’s your guy. You can live with the consequences.
Furthermore, Trump’s own virus expert, Dr. Fauci, says it’s not proper to call this the Wuhan virus. Who do you think understands epidemiology better, him or Trump? If you choose Trump, it’s probably too late to try and convince you to consider reason.
GTFOOH! “Severe Acute”, not “South Asian”.
Actually, it stands for “Assault Rifle”.
”Furthermore, Trump’s own virus expert, Dr. Fauci, says it’s not proper to call this the Wuhan virus.”
He knows that the virus will be called US virus in end. It should be named after the country that was hit the hardest. We will join the infamous countries with greater than 1000 deaths in a couple days. May be France and UK will join us too, but Deutschlend can stay away.
Give it a couple of weeks and the Chicoms will bring the press to heel and it will be referred to as the Trump virus and Orange man bad virus
NPC’s will rejoice
I’ve been thinking it will go down in history as the #OrangeDeath.
Just posted a small collection of information on what the Coronavirus is doing to the Chicago real estate market. http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2020/03/coronavirus-impact-on-chicago-real-estate-market-week-2/ although much of it is broader than just Chicago.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-24/mortgage-bonds-rattle-wall-street-anew-with-rush-of-urgent-sales
This and market turmoil is going to put more pressure on the ability to get financed for marginal borrowers
“This and market turmoil is going to put more pressure on the ability to get financed for marginal borrowers”
Marginal borrowers are toast.
But there weren’t that many of them anyway. Mortgage lending is still pretty tight, actually. More deals fall through because the buyer can’t get a loan than you realize.
@HD
Topic: student debt
Approach: making lemonade
heard that student loan rates were going to be down 250 basis pts.
so it’s totally worth looking into refi’s ( of course do your homework – federal vs private market)
Thanks for the market update Gary. It’s not surprising that inventory is on the decline. Who wants to list right now? If I was going to, I’m certainly going to hold off until after this over.
Could mean a TON of inventory could come on in, say, early May.
Also, you make a good point about the mortgage rates. They were being sold as being at “record lows” just two weeks ago but they’ve actually gone up. Anyone who bought in 2016, when they last hit lows, would have no reason to re-fi right now.
But they’re still super low, so that should help the housing market when everything does return.
“@HD
Topic: student debt
Approach: making lemonade”
I wish I could take advantage, but my loans were paid off in full some time in the recent past. And my rates, thanks to near perfect timing, were never very high to begin with. I consolidated at a good time too. I feel bad for anyone who took out loans at 6.8%. Jeez, that sucks.
Subtract a full point for four years of on time payments and another half point for auto-debit, and my interest rate was below inflation for the life of the loan. I paid them off anyways. Quite a few questioned me “why pay off loans when you can invest in the market?” Which at the time made sense; but with the recent DJIA crash, paying off my loans was like earning a very small percentage a year on my money, as compared to putting that money into the market, and losing 1/3rd. And this best day since 1933 BS, don’t forget that there was another crash a few years later in 1937. We’ll be dead cat bouncing in the market for a while.
https://www.finaid.org/loans/historicalrates.phtml
“” …don’t ever use the following terms…”
Wasn’t this lying sack o s— taking a two week break from posting on cc? Or was hd’s announcement of that break just another lie like hd’s recounting of his recent “I had a nearly coronavirus flu experience” which he only ‘recalled’ & posted when hd believed it would support his strident denials of reality?”
Southbound, every so often a blind squirrel finds a nut, and you are right. I did lie about a two week break. I just can’t help myself.
As for the coronavirus experience, this afternoon I consulted with a MD directly involved in the Wuhan Virus thing (I actually did!) and was advised that it was likely I had it in January, but the antibody test was just developed, so as of now, there’s no real way to know if I was exposed or not.
Which is not implausible, a recent Oxford study says that half the UK population may have ALREADY had the Wuhan Virus, which makes sense, because anyone with symptoms two months ago isn’t going to get tested today.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html
(Oxford Study: Coronavirus May Have Already Infected Half of U.K. Population….According to a team from Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease lab, half of the population of the United Kingdom may have already been infected with the coronavirus. If this modeling is confirmed in follow-up studies, that would mean that fewer than .01 percent of those infected require hospital treatment, with a majority showing very minor symptoms, or none at all.)
I know southbound you think I’m full of crap all the time, but we just have different, incompatible ways of looking at the world. the main difference is that you are infected with TDS, and I am not, therefore, I have at least a modicum of rational thought left, while you ability to think rationally has been compromised.
“As for the coronavirus experience, this afternoon I consulted with a MD directly involved in the Wuhan Virus thing (I actually did!) and was advised that it was likely I had it in January, but the antibody test was just developed, so as of now, there’s no real way to know if I was exposed or not.”
China and some Asian countries have the IgG/IgM test to check whether you have been exposed to Tramp virus in the past, are actively infected, or no exposure since January. I heard that CDC is developing their own in a couple months.
Many hospitals in the nation are packed with COVID patients. Doctors and nursing staff are working hard, but keep getting infected because they don’t have the Hazmat suit or N95mask. In China, the airport inspector even wears them.
In another few days we will have more infected people than China&Italy and prove to the rest of the world that our medical system is failing. What a shame for not being prepared when we were laughing at China and Italy go under.
“In China, the airport inspector even wears them.”
In China, even the *info desk girls* at the airport wear them.
“I heard that CDC is developing their own in a couple months.”
A couple of *months*?? WTF? Just steal the chinese test–they don’t believe in IP rights anyway.
“(Oxford Study: Coronavirus May Have Already Infected Half of U.K. Population”
In order for this to be true it would also have to be true that the least vulnerable got infected first – because the initial wave did not overwhelm the hospital system. Seems unlikely.
or that it is severe in only very prolonged rare cases
Except why didn’t those show up back when all these people supposedly got infected?
maybe they did? And went to the hospital for pneumonia or whatever?
“maybe they did? And went to the hospital for pneumonia or whatever?”
Or the Ministry of State Security worked with Blackwater to cover up all the dead bodies. It’s possible!
“…you think I’m full of crap all the time, but we just have different, incompatible ways of looking at the world…”
More gas lighting by hd who I believe is a pathological liar,, posting on cc mainly to troll, maybe so hd can believe he’s making an impact. The range of hd’s lies posted here is staggering while seemingly pointless (other than hd’s attempt to convert readers to share hd’s ironic core rightwing nut political beliefs – to me it’s sad/strange a son who claims his parents & other fam members required SSI & medicaid assistance vehemently advocates ending those safety nets for all others.)
We do have ‘different incompatible ways of looking at the world’. In my life I’ve learned people at their core are what they repeatedly do, which is often not what they claim they are. I hate liars. Based on hd’s long track record hd is incapable of posting truths here imo.
Iirc hd’s lies began when he recounted experiencing ‘vicious immigrant gang harassment & intimidation’ while attending Buffalo Grove HS, apparently by BGHS’s well known multitudes of vicious Pakistani & Indian gang members. More recently hd (who’s posted multiple times lying bs re what state he’s most recently relocated to) imagined he’d be in rural Minnesota for 2 wks which was before hd’s imagined encounter w/an imaginary virus. I’m sick of reading hd’s bs & hope S will consider banning hd from posting for 3 months
While I might disagree with some of what HD posts I once again have to say I’m opposed to banning anyone. I need to know what different points of view are out there and how they are informed. It provides new data for my mental model of the world.
“Buffalo Grove HS”
Wrong district.
“Wrong district.”
Et tu anon(tfo)? iirc hd posted several times he attended BGHS b/c his family lived on the west side of Wheeling – the part of Wheeling that’s in the BGHS district (where hd stated he also rubbed shoulders w striving hs students).
“hd posted several times he attended BGHS”
He may have. He also more than once claimed to be living in a basement studio in Uptown.
Pretty sure both are false. Would be able to confirm if Icky ever gets teh CC-Wiki working again.
” I’m sick of reading hd’s bs & hope S will consider banning hd from posting for 3 months”
Southbound – I know you can’t stop reading and thinking about me on your own. I live in your head, just like Trump! I think you’re addicted to me! You don’t need Sabrina’s help to stop reading my posts, you just can’t get enough of me!
But I’m so so sorry, I can’t reciprocate the love. I mean, in all truthfulness, I skip most of your comments. I don’t really consider your opinion worth reading. I’d guess I read probably less than a quarter of whatever you post. And it seems that handful of comments I do read is just you coming complaining about me. Boring…
Over the years I’ve said that lived in Buffalo Grove, Wheeling, Uptown, Wisconsin, Utah, Long Grove, Park Ridge, my parents’s basement in Palos Hills, rogers Park, Lincoln Park, and probably a couple of other places too. I’ve lived in all, and none, of those places.
“While I might disagree with some of what HD posts I once again have to say I’m opposed to banning anyone. I need to know what different points of view are out there and how they are informed. It provides new data for my mental model of the world.”
I agree Gary. I haven’t banned anyone since I banned Dan, who then was banned another 10 times under various other names, and is now Helmethofer and remains, unbanned, for now.
I think all the regular readers know where all the regular posters stand. We all know that HH is racist, sexist etc. Nothing new there.
Not everyone has to agree, as long as they are civil to each other in the discussion.
“And this best day since 1933 BS, don’t forget that there was another crash a few years later in 1937. We’ll be dead cat bouncing in the market for a while.”
Wait.
You’re a stock market expert now predicting a Great Depression stock market, HD, just 4 weeks after the markets were hitting all-time highs?
Sure Jan.
Things are getting worse exponentially. I was expecting something similar to the level of Italy, but it simply won’t stop there.
Hospitals are trying to avoid intubating patients with COVID. When you cannot oxygenate on your own with nasal canula or mask, you’re out of luck and straight dead. I only imagined such a thing can happen in a third world country.
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/we-re-going-to-be-coding-dead-people-hospitals-consider-do-not-resuscitate-order-for-all-covid-19-patients.html?utm_medium=email
My prayers to all who have died and who are going to die in the coming months…
There’s still quite a few people listing properties, even with the shelter in place.
Obviously, these listings were ready to go over the last few weeks (with pictures taken etc.) and then they decided to go forward with the listing anyway.
Will some buy just by watching a video tour?
Would you?
Hmm…
“Hospitals are trying to avoid intubating patients with COVID. When you cannot oxygenate on your own with nasal canula or mask, you’re out of luck and straight dead. I only imagined such a thing can happen in a third world country.”
Donald Trump Death Panels.
Where’s Sarah Palin when we need her?
you people have bad TDS, did you read the article at all? how the fuck is that Trumps fault, and since when is “considering” mean a done deal… sounds like another bullcrap “sources say” article to me
And come on blaming Trump for this is as stupid, no actually its dumber, than blaming Obama for 19,000 H1N1 deaths
“how the fuck is that Trumps fault”
How the fuck was Sarah Palin not full of shit with her death panels crap?
It’s a joke, which should have been clear by implying a need for Sarah Palin’s help with *anything*.
Sonies,
I read some opinion poll the other day, I can’t find it now, but something like 6 out of 10 people who describe themselves as ultra-liberal (aka progressive) believe that America is lying and covering up the Wuhan Virus infection and death rates. That’s pure alt-left conspiracy theory stuff. But it’s on full display here in a ‘progressive’ city like Chicago, with people like mouse wailing at the gods because they have foresaken us.
For the record, I’ve never once said this is not serious. It is serious and examples of hospitals getting overwhelmed around the world is evidence of how serious this needs to be taken.
However, the death rate is relatively low, higher than a severe flu season, but certainly less than any other pandemic, like MERS or Ebola, or god forbid, the black death. There are no good choices. But I, along with tens of millions of other people, question the judgment of shutting down the entire state, and destroying the economy in the process, when less drastic measures are available and are being deployed around the world with much success.
During a war, the leaders are right to question the judgment of their generals, and they often do. And they are considered bold for making such decisions.
But in this relatively minor pandemic (by historical standards), it’s considered bold to listen to the new generals – the epidemiologists – and strictly follow their advice, to the detriment of everyone else.
It is wise, and bold, and prudent, to question the decisions your local Democratic leaders make.
“Will some buy just by watching a video tour?”
They don’t *have to*. They can get an in-person showing, from the stay at home (don’t call it “shelter in place”) order:
“12. Essential Businesses and Operations. For the purposes of this Executive Order, Essential Businesses and Operations means … the following:
…
r. Professional services. Professional services, such as … real estate services (including appraisal and title services)”
So, it’s a question of realtors wanting to be in the same space as their customers. Maybe some of them will earn their 3%!
anon(tfo),
with all due respect, I get these are hard times, but you need to get the Republican party and Trump out of your head. it’s driving you crazy. You’re bringing up Sarah Palin, out of nowhere, for no reason at all. I have not heard her name mentioned in years, I have no idea how that even popped into your head.
it’s a bit like a relative that I am close with. This relative is of the ‘progressive’ persuasion and I am not. We never talk politics, but over the last few days, the relative has been texting me non-stop with crazy conspiracy theory anti-trump stuff, and links to all sorts of crazy stuff. I mean, I like this relative’s relationship, but I’m going to need to cut this person out of my life if they have caught TDS. I’m immune to TDS and it’s unfortunate that my relative’s TDS is going to cause me to lose that close relationship. At this point, I get you are stressed out, hanging out at home, and stressed out over the Wuhan Virus, but if you’re bringing up Sarah Palin out of nowhere, you need to chill the heck out. Go get yourself some edibles, eat a little nibble of some gummies, and chill out.
“any other pandemic, like MERS or Ebola”
Um, pandemic? Nah.
Since the mid-19th century, the true pandemics have been cholera, flu, and HIV.
Neither MERS, nor SARS, nor Ebola has had anything close to continental reach, much less global.
FO, HD.
You don’t find my stuff funny, fine. I don’t find your bullshit here funny, either.
But don’t lecture me like some little school marm. Especially when you’re posting shitty lists from facebook.
So, what do we think might be some longer-term impacts of the ‘rona?
Are people stuck at home with kids/spouses re-thinking “open concept”? Will zoom happy hours replace the real in-person kind for good? No more hugs and air kisses among friends/family?
“Are people stuck at home with kids/spouses re-thinking “open concept”?”
Madeline, imagine those who are in lofts with bedrooms where the walls don’t go all the way to the ceilings? Other than the bathroom, there’s NOWHERE to escape.
I think we could see a lot of changes in behaviors.
People who hated their home before, and were thinking of selling/moving, are really going to be motivated now.
Many people who kept their jobs and have some cash, could do those long awaited renovations that they were putting off.
Some will sell outright and move cities/states to live their “dream.”
We could see even MORE investment in housing because people will want the best. More buying of furniture, gadgets, nice kitchens etc.
Will some people who have been renting, decide to buy because they want to “own” something?
“However, the death rate is relatively low, higher than a severe flu season, but certainly less than any other pandemic, like MERS or Ebola, or god forbid, the black death.”
Does it matter that it’s less than SARS or Ebola?
My god.
We have gotten to the absurd point where people are calling this a “minor” pandemic?
Pathetic HD.
“And come on blaming Trump for this is as stupid”
No one is blaming Trump for the virus. He gets the blame for the response. That’s what being “commander in chief” in the time of a national emergency is all about.
The federal government’s response has been nothing but incompetent.
But the government always reflects the person at the top. Currently, we have someone with short attention span who doesn’t believe in science. Therefore, the rest of the government is going to reflect that. That’s why there has been NO plan. Not 8 weeks ago. Not 4 weeks ago. And not now. There is still currently, NO plan for what will happen as the virus eases.
There’s simply NO leadership, whatsoever.
We have a president who is seriously holding meetings about when his rallies can start up again. Meanwhile, the army corp is building 3,000 beds in the convention center.
“I think we could see a lot of changes in behaviors. ”
Suddenly, those McMansions in Long Grove, Barrington and Tinley don’t look so awful any more. I was fishing for dinner earlier this afternoon on my association’s private lake. The mosquitoes are a little rough in the summer but I’m loving my freedom to go into my own acre backyard is awesome. I hear the lakefront is closed? Is this true? What about the parks, are they closed too? I took a little rowboat on a lake, a bit windy, but fun. Yes, I will admit, the taxes are atrocious, and the listing times are high when you go to sell, but the lifestyle has social distancing built in, and I’m still able to work full time.
“The federal government’s response has been nothing but incompetent.”
Are you a CCP troll Sabrina? Because this is exactly what China wants you to think. This is the same propaganda China is spreading all over twitter. NYT has articles about it.
China is angry that Trump calls it the Chinese Virus (because it is) and they’re angry that he stopped nearly all incoming Chinese flights back in January while congress was busy ‘forever impeaching’ Trump. Think about that: Trump has been preparing for this since January – and the house of Representatives has been ‘forever impeaching’. Teally, think about for more than two seconds – all of you – before you down vote. It’s a flat out lie to say that he’s been incompetent.
No offense Sabrina, but stop spreading your lies, and your Chinese approved propaganda. This is not a time for division and partisanship. Trump has a majority approval rating on his handling of the virus. You should look at this objective and stop parroting the talking points of the dark side.
“We have a president who is seriously holding meetings about when his rallies can start up again. Meanwhile, the army corp is building 3,000 beds in the convention center.”
The army corps IS the federal government, sabrina.
“The army corps IS the federal government, sabrina.”
Duh!
The deep state is doing its job (thank goodness) while the President is telling people it will all be fine by Easter. Oh- and the corp could have been building these extra beds MONTHS ago. As the doctors at the CDC, that Trump shut up, warned that life as we knew it was about to change.
Why weren’t they?
As of 2 weeks ago, the corp wasn’t being asked to do ANYTHING?
The incompetence.
What a joke.
There is NO excuse.
The incompetence will go down in history. I can’t think of any other President this incompetent during a national emergency. Maybe Hoover? I don’t know.
My god.
But other leaders will rise up. That’s the great thing. There are a bunch of governors and mayors who are showing great political skill right now.
“No offense Sabrina, but stop spreading your lies, and your Chinese approved propaganda.”
Ba ha ha.
THIS is your reply HD?
Wow. Game over.
So you agree that this administration is incompetent, huh?
Clearly.
This White House is completely incompetent.
Let us remember, that Trump was asked by bank CEOs at dinner at Davos (which the Chinese refused to attend at all because they were about to shut down Wuhan and the Hubei Province) what he was doing to prepare.
He told them it was “contained.”
Lol!
Don’t worry, everyone. We are safe.
Lol!
The Administration had over 6 weeks to get ready. It did NOTHING.
The incompetence!
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/23/business/dealbook/coronavirus-davos-world-economic-forum.html
“Yes, I will admit, the taxes are atrocious, and the listing times are high when you go to sell, but the lifestyle has social distancing built in, and I’m still able to work full time.”
We don’t know. That’s going to be the debate, right? Will Millennials buy in Naperville instead of Oak Park or Roscoe Village?
Many people argued after 9/11 that the cities were doomed. They weren’t.
angry that he stopped nearly all incoming Chinese flights back in January
Hmmm. The Trump admin required all incoming flights to route through one of 7 US airports (one of which was O’Hare). This was announced AFTER the major US airlines had already suspended flights (or had announced upcoming suspensions) to and from China. This restriction went into effect on Feb 2 (which was not back in January)
Only foreign nationals were restricted from arriving to the US from China. US citizens had no restrictions. Passengers were being screened at the 7 airports, but there was no followup afterwards. People were supposed to “self-quarantine” for 14 days. Did they? Who knows?
“The deep state is doing its job (thank goodness) while the President is telling people it will all be fine by Easter.”
You’re behind the times Sabrina, he just announced it’s April 30 now. Keep up! Prez Trump is, thank goodness, while the haters, carnival barkers and CCP troll are not. More than half of America approves, open your eyes.
“The Administration had over 6 weeks to get ready. It did NOTHING. ”
You can search the internet for your own lists of things that Trump administration has done since the time your leaders were ‘forever impeaching’. There’s a reason we are not Italy, or Spain, and your Chinese communist approved lies are tiresome. Really, you’re just repeating Chinese communist party propaganda. You laugh it off, but it’s true.
“He told them it was “contained.””
So you admit the Chinese were lying? Because that’s what the WHO and Chinese has been saying all along, “it’s contained”, especially back in January, when Trump terminated all incoming flights into China. Hm….weren’t Democrats forever impeaching? Who looks foolish now? WHO? Pelosi impeaching?
“Many people argued after 9/11 that the cities were doomed. They weren’t.”
This is a legitimate topic we can discuss. Time will tell who is right about this. Given a year or more of social distancing, who knows. The problem, i’ve heard from those in the know, is that the SARS and MERS vaccine never came into mass production because of the awful secondary effects. There’s a concern about this virus too, which is formally the SARS 2 virus. We may NEVER get a Wuhan Virus vac. We’re trying, hopefully we get it right this time. Who knows. I do know that I’m happy with my decision to social distance. The commute is long and the mosquitoes and taxes are bad, but I don’t feel like a rat in a cage living in some cramped city where the authoritarian mayor lets you walk your dog, for now. Time will tel.
Madeline,
Trump was shutting down flights…while NY was so affliected with TDS that they encouraged the CHINESE NEW YEAR PARADE. Jeez, open your eyes. Seriously, open your eyes.
“New York City health commissioner Dr. Oxiris Barbot, among others, who dismissed the incoming threat of the coronavirus in February.
“The risk to New Yorkers from coronavirus is low and … our preparedness as a city is very high,” Barbot said at a Feb. 2 press conference supporting the Chinatown Lunar New Year Parade and Festival. “There is no reason not to take the subway, not to take a bus, not to go out to your favorite restaurant and certainly not to miss the parade next Sunday [Feb. 9].”
“Future generations are gonna watch that video with their jaws open in disbelief,” Carlson said in response to Barbot. “How could someone charged with protecting public health so recklessly endanger it?””
https://www.foxnews.com/media/tucker-carlson-nyc-leaders-endangering-public-coronavirus
“The mayor of Florence, Italy, @DarioNardella initiated “hug a Chinese” on Twitter on Feb 1, opposing anger toward China amid the #nCoV2019 outbreak, and calling for “Unity in this common battle!” Many Italian netizens responded by posting photos of themselves with Chinese.”
Wow! How bad stupid can virtue signals get?
What is the death rate in italy? and NY?
What is the death rate in America overall? Thank you president Trump, VP Pence, Dr. Fauci and Dr. Brix. Fantastic leadership.
“There’s a reason we are not Italy, or Spain, and your Chinese communist approved lies are tiresome.”
You’re right. We are going to have worse outcomes than all three countries combined! Mostly because of ignorant CDC, FDA and government, but I admit that it’s partly because of us people. I’m pessimistic, but did not predict it to get this bad a month ago. Only if we had started lock-down and everyone worn masks in the beginning of February had we achieved better outcome. All countries other than Taiwan, Japan and Korea are regretting of the choices they made.
Jeez, open your eyes. Seriously, open your eyes.
WTF does any of this have to do with the points I made?
Um, DeBlasio should resign, but his incompetence doesn’t negate Trump’s incompetence.
Whataboutery is annoying.
Also, I love how HD has now pivoted from “everyone is overreacting” to “Trump is the only one who took this seriously”.
There’s derangement invovled for sure, but not on the part of Trump’s critics.
“Whataboutery is annoying.”
——————————–
Especially when it shoots down one’s own argument.
I’m no fan of Cheetos Jesus, but that doesn’t allow us to deny that people on both sides of the aisle dropped the ball on this one.
“he stopped nearly all incoming Chinese flights back in January”
Uh, false?
The US carriers stopped flights on the basis of State Department travel warnings, not based on anything Trump did. Delta nailed it on their initial stoppage announcement–no flights til April 30.
“I can’t think of any other President this incompetent during a national emergency. Maybe Hoover?”
Taking a serious look at the Hoover presidency, and what went wrong, would expose some very foul truths about American political philosophies. Which is one reason that there isn’t a whole lot of re-examination.
“Passengers were being screened at the 7 airports, but there was no followup afterwards. People were supposed to “self-quarantine” for 14 days. Did they? Who knows?”
Know of people who came back from Europe in March, having been in Italy, who were then intending to go to Florida for spring break, and only did not because their destination had started closing everything. So, as to self-quarantining–not all of them, for sure.
Also know of people who came back and did self-isolate, notwithstanding no instructions from immigration/customs upon re-entry–also in March.
yeah sabrina, Orange Man Bad because he didn’t shut down the worlds largest economy when there were 8! Yes 8 confirmed cases on January 31st in the US… fuck outta here with that hindsight bullshit
you people need to actually watch the conferences rather than getting your daily dose of orange man bad from these pathetic journalists as they twist his words and lie all the freakin time about what he actually says.
“. Only if we had started lock-down and everyone worn masks in the beginning of February had we achieved better outcome. All countries other than Taiwan, Japan and Korea are regretting of the choices they made.”
you lock down the country with 15 cases and people would flip the fuck out and panic more than they already did
according to https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
in the US we didn’t have 15 confirmed cases until 2/20
hindsight is great for critique and investing isn’t it
I don’t know where people are getting the idea that everyone wanted Trump to “shut down the world’s largest economy” back in January.
What the Trump Admin could have done in January:
Screening all passengers arriving from China – contract tracing for 14 days after their arrival. (in Feb, this could have been extended to passengers arriving from Italy)
Screening all passengers disembarking from cruise ships with attendant contract tracing.
As people started getting diagnosed in the US – widespread testing in the communities where the initial patients were located. This would have allowed us to identify (limited) areas where “shelter in place” was warranted. Even if the gov’t had “quarantined” those who had tertiary and quarternary contact with the infected individuals, it would have been far, far less than a full lockdown, and probably would have been a blip as far as the economy was concerned. (with some localized problems in the affected areas).
TL; DR – the US should have used a containment strategy in the early months, but did not, necessitating draconian measures.
“Contract” should be “contact” in the above post.
“in the US we didn’t have 15 confirmed cases until 2/20”
Out of how many tested? Like 100?
There weren’t 1,000 tested until sometime in March.
Its pretty funny seeing HD troll Sabrina and her throw away any pretense of being anything more than an NPC
The absolutely perfect knowledge that this board has is awe inspiring, LOL. If only we could harness this power to determine the exact Bucktown borders
IL death rate now at 1.44%.
Yes, the infection is without doubt being under diagnosed, so that is higher than ‘real’ at the moment (but also clear more will die). No question more than 5,057 Illinoisans have/have had COVID-19 at this point.
Clearly the biggest mistakes back in January were underestimating our risk and preparing for it with proper testing capacity, protective gear, and ventilators. Why were we developing our own tests? Even now the federal government is not coordinating the production and distribution of the gear and equipment, which they need to be doing. For optimal deployment you need a central logistics operation.
As for the death rate…you can’t calculate it off the total cases anyway. It takes 30 days on average for a victim to die. You need to be looking at resolved cases for the denominator.
“As for the death rate…you can’t calculate it off the total cases anyway. It takes 30 days on average for a victim to die. You need to be looking at resolved cases for the denominator.”
But Gary, there’s the theory out there that the ‘rona has been making everyone sick for months, and half of the UK had it before February, so the ‘resolved cases’ denominator is actually a huuuge number, and includes HD’s whole extended family, and me, and probably yo, too, and this isn’t more deadly than hangnails, really.
And you’ll get pilloried for believing the MSM and being a stooge for the Chinese.
…and 38 MM of the 10 MM people in Seoul had it also!
Just posted another update on the virus impact on Chicago real estate. There’s an interesting video embedded from one of my attorneys. http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2020/03/coronavirus-impact-on-chicago-real-estate-market-week-3/
“Screening all passengers arriving from China – contract tracing for 14 days after their arrival. (in Feb, this could have been extended to passengers arriving from Italy)”
Yep. And you know that order canceling “all flights” to China? It was only for Chinese nationals. Americans could fly back and forth at will. Same as the shutdown out of Europe.
25,000 Americans flew into China daily at that time.
The flights only ended when US airlines crews refused to continue to do the flights out of safety concerns. Once United and American started canceling all flights, the air traffic basically ended.
And NO ONE was tested or screened during this time. Absurd.
But there was absolutely NO plan.
Reminder from Jan 22:
“We have it totally under control,” Trump said. “It’s going to be just fine.”
Incompetence.
“yeah sabrina, Orange Man Bad because he didn’t shut down the worlds largest economy”
I never said he should “shut it down.” Where did I say that?
How about PREPARING??????????
WTF!
Sonies, do you really have that low of a view of your government that you don’t expect the federal agency that handles pandemics, Health & Human Services, to ask for more money on Feb 2 from Congress, when they were before the committee who could have given it to them?
But they DID NOT.
We had 8 weeks to prepare. To try and get supplies. To get the army corp on board and prepared, to move the hospital ships, to prepare the national guard.
This is routinely prepared for in the federal government.
In fact, in 2019, the Trump Administration ran a “mock” pandemic exercise called Crimson Contagion. The administration failed in that “game.” The response was muddled and ineffective. They had a chance, even THEN, to try to put fixes in place. They did not. They blew it off.
Incompetence.
“I’m no fan of Cheetos Jesus, but that doesn’t allow us to deny that people on both sides of the aisle dropped the ball on this one.”
No.
That’s not how it works.
It’s the Federal Government here.
How about this: enacting the DPA and then NOT actually ordering a single company to DO anything under it for NINE days.
WTF!
Can you imagine having that much power- to just force GE to start making shit- and he DOESN’T DO IT.
The incompetence.
“Trump was shutting down flights…while NY was so affliected with TDS that they encouraged the CHINESE NEW YEAR PARADE. Jeez, open your eyes. Seriously, open your eyes.”
As others have said, HD, Trump never shut down all flights. He simply forbid the Chinese from flying in. Thousands of Americans, Japanese, European and whomever else could fly in and out of China.
It was only after the airlines themselves said that they would no longer fly the route, did all flights cease.
And despite Italy being locked down and the number of cases rising, there was no talk of restricting those flights. The JFK/Rome and JFK/Milan flights continued unabated even with a clear outbreak in Milan.
“You’re behind the times Sabrina, he just announced it’s April 30 now.”
You mean he was told there could be 2 million deaths and decided to change his mind?
Laughing my fucking ass off.
I don’t know why we’re even talking about the incompetence as it’s so obvious. There will be a new administration by January of next year. And hopefully all the incompetents in this administration will be gone.
Meanwhile, there’s actually another economic crisis brewing that this administration is doing absolutely nothing about either: oil.
Guess what happened today? Trump “called” Putin and…they decided nothing.
Instead, the state of Texas is possibly going to resort to their own production cuts for the first time in the last 50 years because the Feds have NO plan and are of NO help. Is there even a Secretary of the Energy?
Lol.
The incompetence.
Thanks for the link to your latest market observations Gary. This is great info.
And the video from Marc, one of your attorneys, was great. Tell him to keep doing them. Lots of info in there.
I hadn’t heard that the jumbo lending market dried up and those deals fell through. I DID hear that the lower end of the market, the riskiest loans, dried up last week. There was nowhere to sell them in the market, so they couldn’t keep doing them.
So apparently both the bottom, and the upper end, of mortgages have all but halted.
Also, I’ve heard of a TON of contracts falling out now by the self-employed and if you’re in one of the “shutdown” industries, like you own a restaurant or are a chef, then, forget it. They’re not giving you the loan. No matter how good your credit is.
It could be up to 50 million people in the impacted professions. None of them will be able to buy in the next few months.
Also, it’s interesting that Marc said that some of the contracts fell out because of the decline in the stock market. Buyers don’t want to take on the risk if their portfolios have fallen 30%.
It’s also a good sign that he’s still getting some new contracts. I wonder how that will be impacted now that the social distancing has been expanded for another month.
Buying a home is about consumer confidence. That’s in low supply right now.
That data Gary is quite literally the apocalypse. It’s going to be awful. Any property with $10k+ a year in taxes will be toast for quite some time. This is like 2008 all over again, except on steroids. You all better prepare for 2020 being the worst market on record. Maybe even G will come out of hiding to report some figures. Hope you brokers like doing short sales!
“Also, I love how HD has now pivoted from “everyone is overreacting” to “Trump is the only one who took this seriously”.
Haha…I like how everyone who complained about the Chinese travel ban pivoted from “Trump is a racist” to “he should’ve done it sooner”.
“But Gary, there’s the theory out there that the ‘rona has been making everyone sick for months, and half of the UK had it before February, so the ‘resolved cases’ denominator is actually a huuuge number, and includes HD’s whole extended family, and me, and probably yo, too, and this isn’t more deadly than hangnails, really.
And you’ll get pilloried for believing the MSM and being a stooge for the Chinese.”
Two weeks ago the Imperial Study by Neil F. said 500,000 people in the UK were gonna die…..you even cited to him. now he realizes he had some input probs with his algo, and whooops! It’s nopw ‘revised’ to less than 20,000 deaths. I don’t even need to copy a link because it’s all over the internet.
The reality is that we don’t know much of anything, and almost nothing from China is believable, and we’ve all jumped off the cliff (with Democrat govs all stepping over each other to out-do each other, Blackface or KKK Northam in VA today said he’s got lockdown until June!), with really bad data, really bad algos, really bad models.
And now we have breadlines and 33% unemployment rates. The good news is that mortgage brokers will need to find other work. I hear instacart is hiring?
“How about PREPARING??????????”
Anybody complaining about Trump’s handling of this is just ridiculous and outs themselves as a hate-filled TDS type. (Come on people, you don’t want to be associated with the “Hate Has No Home Here” losers who are the angriest and hateful people around, who happen to hate their 63 million fellow citizens who didn’t vote for HIllary).
Trump’s been a masterful leader throughout this, and any shitlib ought to be quite pleased with the socialism that he’s supporting.
“Laughing my fucking ass off.”
Nobody knows what the predictions foretell. Not even Fauci. To lay every single micro-issue on a good man like Trump, who’s working his ass off to help the country, is just petty, immature, and hate-filled.
“Trump’s been a masterful leader throughout this, and any shitlib ought to be quite pleased with the socialism that he’s supporting.”
Lol.
This just goes to tell you the insanity that is out there.
Again.
Incompetence.
Oh- and the presidency is decided by how the economy is doing in the second and third quarters of the year of the election. The second quarter starts this week.
Texas will be lost with what’s going to happen in the oil industry.
The election is already over.
“The reality is that we don’t know much of anything,”
Lies.
A batch of lies.
Italy, Spain and France tell us where it’s going.
New Orleans, New York and Detroit are telling us even more.
There’s no time for deniers. You are all cancelled.
“And now we have breadlines and 33% unemployment rates.”
Um…no we don’t.
We have socialism HD. You keep saying it yourself.
The food pantries are trying to keep up (please donate). There will be a surge in food stamp applications. The disaster aid package should help as you can get unemployment even if just furloughed and it’s for more than typical unemployment payments.
Not going to end the pain but at least it should keep some food on the table and a roof over the head.
They’ll have to do more in a few weeks, depending on how long this lasts.
We took too long to lock everything down. Florida still isn’t locked down even though they have more cases than Illinois. God speed Florida.
Just means we will be locked down even longer nationwide because there are no travel restrictions between states.
In China, they locked down Wuhan and forbid travelers from Hubei Province from even going to Shanghai or Beijing. That’s how they kept the worst of it out of their two major cities. We haven’t done anything like that.
They only allowed those in Wuhan to leave the city a week ago.
“That data Gary is quite literally the apocalypse.”
Completely different than 2008.
Totally different. In so many ways.
If this is a “V” shape recovery, the properties that would have listed in March, will list in June instead.
Why are you betting against America HD? Why do you WANT the depression?
Are you nuts?
But yes, you are.
“Two weeks ago the Imperial Study by Neil F. said 500,000 people in the UK were gonna die…..you even cited to him. now he realizes he had some input probs with his algo, and whooops! It’s nopw ‘revised’ to less than 20,000 deaths. I don’t even need to copy a link because it’s all over the internet.”
That’s just more Facebook BS, HD:
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-pandemic-neil-ferguson-did-not-walk-back-covid-19-predictions/
That’s the National Review, dude. Not WaPo or NYT.
“We took too long to lock everything down.”
Oh get real. Hypocrites like you would’ve called Trump a fascist or a racist if he did anything sooner than he did.
Trump called for bringing American jobs home, closing our borders, stopping immigration from hellholes, etc. and losers like you whined.
Italy was slammed because of Chinese immigration (one Belt, One Road) and Chinese tourists. No Chinese in Calabria, no COVID. Same goes with the US’ states.
Same goes for other immigration problems. No Nigerians in China, no black crime. BLacks in USA, black crime. No Jews in China, no porn and LGBT or opoids. Jews in USA = porn, LGBT, opiods (Sackler), trannies in preschool. No Mexicans in China, no drugs. Mexicans in USA, massive drug shipments.
Actually China has more freedom of speech on social media there, than we do here.
“That’s the National Review, dude. Not WaPo or NYT.”
It’s a walk back on his initial predictions, regardless of what he says, in a feeble attempt to protect his credibility, which is now in tatters.
“Completely different than 2008.
Totally different. In so many ways.
If this is a “V” shape recovery, the properties that would have listed in March, will list in June instead.
Why are you betting against America HD? Why do you WANT the depression?
Are you nuts?
But yes, you are.”
First of all, I’m not nuts, because I don’t have TDS. second of all, I don’t want a depression, but it’s naive to think that we’re suddenly going to bounce back like V. Plenty of people have told me this, and I ask them “when are you planning your next vacation to Vegas?” and “when do you think it’s safe to travel to Italy again” and “will you continue eating out half a dozen times a week given your current employment and financial situation.” Do you think that Chase is going to incrase the limit on your credit card in July when you as for payment deferrals through June? I ask these questions and people finally get it. We crashed our economy because a 1000 combined infectious disease modelers around the decided to destroy the economy.
“Actually China has more freedom of speech on social media there, than we do here.”
This is stupidity, go away. Sabrina is right, you don’t live in China. You’re a CCP troll.
“It’s a walk back on his initial predictions”
You’re in the tank. Just not sure which one.
“I’m not nuts, because I don’t have TDS”
Which one of the voices told you that, HD? Or did you use a self-diagnostic tool you found on Facebook?
“This is stupidity, go away. Sabrina is right, you don’t live in China. You’re a CCP troll.”
You’re joking right? Social media in the USA is replete with censorship. They’re even talking about banning the President of this country from Twitter if “he breaks the rules” Who’s rules? LOL, no Chicom is going to force you to bake an anal cake or take away your job over being opposed to sodomy in public education. You lack perspective. Big time. Such a cuck.
Somebody brought up moronic NPCs earlier. The NPC’s on the right hate China, the idiot NPCs on the left chant “russia”.
The latest bump in stocks places us in between Bull Trap and Return to Normal, it’s going lower:
https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/40WQHDlF9f7Ep28DahUyUw–~A/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjtzbT0xO3c9MTI4MDtoPTk2MA–/https://media.zenfs.com/en/fx_empire_176/76bd9b27a0941dbc34f11db0eab53e03
That being said, never trust doomsdayers who bet against the USA. These types like HD is now into, are just depressed and want everyone else to be like them.
Article says: “CALL MAC TO CANCEL RENTS DURING COVID-19 OUTBREAK. PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL RENT STRIKE SUPPORT
Call Mac Properties between March 15th and March 21st at 773-825-6651 (press 1 or 2) and demand Mac cancel rent for all tenants.”
Then it says:
“Mac Properties representatives did not return a request for comment.”
Yes! Call the Jews and tell them to be progressive. LOL!!! Good luck.
“Two weeks ago the Imperial Study by Neil F. said 500,000 people in the UK were gonna die…..you even cited to him. now he realizes he had some input probs with his algo, and whooops! It’s nopw ‘revised’ to less than 20,000 deaths. I don’t even need to copy a link because it’s all over the internet.”
That’s a misrepresentation of what happened. His original model was based on doing nothing. Since then policies have changed the trajectory and the inputs had to be changed.
” We crashed our economy because a 1000 combined infectious disease modelers around the decided to destroy the economy.”
Just to be clear…the modelers are now saying that 100K deaths would be a good scenario. Trump is listening to them. So is Trump dumb for listening to them now or was he dumb for ignoring them originally? There are only two choices here.
“In China, they locked down Wuhan and forbid travelers from Hubei Province from even going to Shanghai or Beijing. That’s how they kept the worst of it out of their two major cities. We haven’t done anything like that. ”
This is my greatest fear right now. The Chinese, although they are probably lying about their success, have tools at their disposal that we do not. Right now are people from NY less dangerous than people from Italy? We may need to be banning travel in and out of hot spots or how else do you control this thing? But I don’t think we handle that politically.
Helmethofer,
So much of what you say is totally outrageous that there isn’t time to address it all. Just take a statement like this:
“Italy was slammed because of Chinese immigration (one Belt, One Road) and Chinese tourists. No Chinese in Calabria, no COVID. Same goes with the US’ states.”
Chinese tourists are everywhere. Lots of people from other countries fly in and out of China. Do you really think this could have been contained to just China? What policies would you have proposed? Here is what happened in Italy from a real news source: https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-italy And Calabria has at least 602 cases. Remember, it started with like 14 cases in the US.
Like it or not we have a global economy and it helps us thrive as a planet.
Impacts I’ve seen on front lines of mortgages over past couple of weeks:
1) Down payment funds or assets vaporized leading to cancellation of deals. Lenders are having to go back and verify current non-cash balances if part of loan approval.
2) Implosion of non-QM financing (what used to be called Alt-A back in the day). A bunch of big lender stopped funding due to lack of buyers. Borrowers who need a non-traditional mortgage are screwed. For example, jumbo borrowers with less than 680 FICO scores, not putting 20% down, higher DTI’s, qualifying off assets instead of income, etc.
3) Appraisals were becoming a huge problem. Agencies changed guidelines for appraisals so now we can do “drive bys” on most loans instead of appraiser needing to go inside.
4) Still can’t do fully online closings because IL requires some docs to be wet signed. Industry has been pushing for a a federal bill so lenders can do remote notarized closings (fully online). Tech has been around for 20 years, but lawyers and bureaucrats….
5) Rates all over the place. Went from record lows to back into the mid 4s in the span of a day. Never seen anything like it. Finally stabilized some what and back to being really low. However, still at least 50-75 bps higher than they should be. 30 year fixed should be around 2.5% right now.
Russ,
I thought “In conjunction with Governor Pritzker’s Executive Order 2020-14, the Office of the Secretary of State is issuing guidance to Illinois notaries public who are equipped to perform notarizations remotely using real-time electronic technologies that feature high-quality audio-visual communication.The temporary authority for an Illinois notary to perform remote, online notarizations shall expire when the Gubernatorial Disaster Proclamation of March 9, 2020,is rescinded.” Is that not sufficient to do online closings?
Gary, not sure. Looks like Sec. of State just issued something couple of days ago so maybe RON (remote online notary) is finally coming. I know the industry has been lobbying for an emergency Federal bill to bring some consistency in regard to RON to each state.
My closings last week, we did like 95% of the docs online but still a few that need the wet signature.
“The Chinese, although they are probably lying about their success, have tools at their disposal that we do not.”
Yeah, it would be chaos if we started locking apartment buildings from the outside.
“Still can’t do fully online closings because IL requires some docs to be wet signed. Industry has been pushing for a a federal bill so lenders can do remote notarized closings (fully online). Tech has been around for 20 years, but lawyers and bureaucrats”
Lenders, title insurance companies and clerks/recorders are old-fashioned. Lenders and their counsel continue to think that having the original promissory note is the only slam dunk they need in a default/foreclosure proceeding (leaving aside the merits of that view, not sure why most of them also want 4 originals of everything else). For the mortgages/DOTs/ALRs, the degree of insistence on having originals in hand varies by county, but it’s generally an arrangement between the recorders and the title companies. The whole thing’s a moving target right now for sure (woe are the junior associates tasked with 50-state/all county surveys right now). The notary wrinkle is yet another reason why the whole concept of having one should be done away with.
“Yeah, it would be chaos if we started locking apartment buildings from the outside”
You’re starting to see some pressure to do this (on a larger scale) as states that aren’t in as bad of shape are looking to stop people coming in from infected areas (LA/TX, NY&NJ/RI, WI Gov requesting that people don’t escape to the cabin)
I’ve heard anecdotal stories of people in remote areas trying to chase away people with out of state plates.
“Just to be clear…the modelers are now saying that 100K deaths would be a good scenario. Trump is listening to them. So is Trump dumb for listening to them now or was he dumb for ignoring them originally? There are only two choices here.”
This is a false dichotomy. There are not two choices. He’s obviously trying to calm the panic and now he listening to some of the modeler’s recommendations, even if we doubt that he actually believes them. I sure don’t.
As for Dr. Neil F. of the imperial college, it really takes a most favorable view of the facts to not call this a walk back when his death prediction is off by millions.
Again, I’ve never said this is not serious, the hospitals around the world have been overwhelmed, and elderly and those with complications are meeting their maker much earlier than anticipated. I don’t want anyone’s 69 year old granda to die half a decade early.
But again, the predicted 33% unemployment rate and bread lines as far as the eye can see seems worse than the disease. This is worse than the GFC and is more like the great depression. No amount of stimulus bills is going to help, unfortunately, and no, i’m not betting against the US, the rest of the world is in the same place as we are now, except those places that have employed different methods to control coronavirus.
“I’ve heard anecdotal stories of people in remote areas trying to chase away people with out of state plates.”
It’s established fact that Rhode Island state police are out looking for NY’ers.
“bread lines as far as the eye can see”
If there are no breadlines, does that mean you were completely wrong, HD?
And since I know you aren’t so dim that you don’t understand the falsehood that you are peddling about the Imperial College study, what’s your angle here? You just trying to ‘own the libz”? The “libz” like Gary?
You seem to be tilting at anthills, which you are mistaking for windmills.
Sabrina said
“Reminder from Jan 22:
“We have it totally under control,” Trump said. “It’s going to be just fine.”
Incompetence.”
From February fucking 24th! Nancy Pelosi telling people to come visit chinatown, don’t be racist!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFCzoXhNM6c
HINDSIGHT! you TDS infected loons
“If there are no breadlines, does that mean you were completely wrong, HD?”
But I’m not wrong, a two second google news search shows multiple articles, such as:
“PINCKNEYVILLE (WSIL) — Hundreds of families kept their distance while in line Friday at The Least of the Brethren Food Pantry in Pinckneyville, where organizers said, despite the virus, their mission is to feed those in need.”
and
“The Greater Cleveland Food Bank has regrouped and reorganized after an unprecedented number of people in need showed up last week. They held Tuesday’s distribution at a new location and put safety measures in place to protect everyone’s health.”
and
“LAS VEGAS (KSNV) — A local non-profit says the need for food has grown more than 500% as more people are without work because of the coronavirus. “Not only has Share Village Las Vegas opened up its food pantry to seven days a week because of the growing demand, now more than ever, they’re taking additional steps to make sure everyone is staying safe in the process. People are hurting,” said Arnold Stalk, president and CEO of Share Village. Lines at the Share Village pantry are much longer these days.”
anon(tfo), I’m not peddling falsehoods about the Imperial College study. We have a difference of opinion on the significance of his backtracking of his doomsday model. You take him at his word….whereas skeptics like me say he was always wrong to begin with, and now he’s just covering his a$$. The imperial college study was a ‘doomsday’ model that predicted outlandish deaths. And public policy was based upon that outlandish model.
Now weeks later he comes back and says “great, look, now that you listened to me, and did everything I says, the 500,000 deaths was possible, but no longer, it’s only 20,000, thanks to my wonderful advice.” The only way to prove him wrong is to do nothing and let the virus spread and then count the number of people that died. All 500,000 of them that were supposed to die. And of course we did not do that. So he takes credit for it. How convenient! That’s the definition of snake oil.
What’s my angle? My angle is being couped up like everyone else in their 4,500 sq foot faux-tudor on an acre+ land like everyone else on this board. I have a completely different opinion of this mess than others, and the utter devasation. I’m giving family members money like none other. One family member told me that they are running out of food this week and won’t have any food until the stimulus checks are sent. The other said he hasn’t had any money in weeks, stopped paying the mortgage, and is trying to feed his his school aged kids. A third set of family members, although retired, had trouble getting vital supplies because being elderly they are high risk. Another family member in a different state told me that his town had hundreds of thousands of unemployment claims. I hope all of you pitch in to help here. I’m never a charitable guy but this time around I am.
So you don’t believe that social distancing and fewer human interactions will result in a slower progression of the disease? You might not accept a particular mathematical model but surely you agree that one drives the other? And do you not believe that hospital systems will be driven beyond their capacity, resulting in more deaths? Even with these measures in place?
Did you get the emergency alert this afternoon asking licensed healthcare workers to sign up on a special website?
” He’s obviously trying to calm the panic and now he listening to some of the modeler’s recommendations, even if we doubt that he actually believes them. I sure don’t.”
Not sure what you are saying here. That he is taking the advice of modelers that neither he nor you believe? Hmmm. Sure seems to me that he has bought into the 100K number and loudly proclaimed that if we had done nothing there would have been a couple of million deaths. So was he lying when he said that?
“One family member told me that they are running out of food this week and won’t have any food until the stimulus checks are sent.”
That’s still weeks away. The food pantries are pretty well stocked. They’re getting massive donations. Your family members need to use all of the services. Apply for food stamps and unemployment. There’s help out there.
And one family members’ town had “hundreds of thousands” of unemployment claims? Where does he live- Las Vegas? LA?
Only the big cities have had “hundreds of thousands” of unemployment claims.
But that’s where a lot of the service jobs are located. Restaurants and hotels.
I worry about Orlando once the parks there stop paying the employees. Right now, I think Disney is still covering the salaries but they won’t do that for months most likely.
“HINDSIGHT! you TDS infected loons”
Sonies: Trump was asked by the bank CEOs, who know a thing or two about Ebola, SARS, MERS and Trump literally said “We have it totally under control.”
AKA, we’re not doing ANYTHING.
And yes- I went to Chinese restaurants at the end of February myself to support them as it was so stupid not to go to them. It WAS racist and those restaurants were hurting.
What does that have to do with Trump golfing 3 times in February and as recently as March 7 and 8th while he ignored the whole thing?
Incompetence.
The mother of one of my friends just died from the virus out in Naperville. She was 77. Prayers to everyone.
“But again, the predicted 33% unemployment rate and bread lines as far as the eye can see seems worse than the disease.”
I can’t with people who are this stupid.
Talk to any economist. They will tell you that this is a government induced recession. They are NOT the same as those that happen “naturally.” The rebound is much quicker. Not saying it will be easy. Just look at China. They are struggling to re-open.
But all the Starbucks are back open. Even in Wuhan.
The employees are back working.
Have to keep everyone on lockdown to get through it as quickly as you can.
“I’ve heard anecdotal stories of people in remote areas trying to chase away people with out of state plates.”
They have no hospital beds to handle it in the rural areas. If you are going to your cabin in Aspen, good luck. There are few ICU beds.
Portland Maine just banned all short term rentals, like airbnb, because they don’t want outsiders coming to town to “ride out” the virus.
“Impacts I’ve seen on front lines of mortgages over past couple of weeks:”
Thanks Russ. Sounds like a nightmare. It’s probably going to be a few months before the housing market returns to some kind of normalcy.
“Chinese tourists are everywhere. Lots of people from other countries fly in and out of China.”
There’s tons of Chinese tourists in Chicago. All the time. Lol.
Additionally, about 25,000 Americans fly back and forth to China every day on business.
I agree with you Gary. We are a global world now. Millions of people flying everywhere every day.
It’s shocking when you hear the numbers of how much it has dropped. Yesterday, it went from 2.3 million passengers to 140,000. That was just one day in America (both domestic and international.)
We live in an amazing time period in history, don’t we?
It has created a small world.
“We may need to be banning travel in and out of hot spots or how else do you control this thing? But I don’t think we handle that politically.”
They did this in Italy a few weeks ago. If you didn’t live in those locked down northern cities, you couldn’t go “in.” They had police checkpoints on the roads.
“Who’s rules?”
Twitter is a private company. They can do anything they want.
And Trump will be banned once he leaves the White House because his behavior falls within their parameters for abuse and banning.
Additionally, he’ll be in jail by then anyway so unlikely to be tweeting once he leaves the White House.
“We crashed our economy because a 1000 combined infectious disease modelers around the decided to destroy the economy.”
I’m over the trolling deniers. You’re all cancelled. Just morons and idiots.
You’re disgusting HH. I’m deleting a bunch of your posts.
As usual, someone from outside Chicago comes on here and just posts some jibberish. It’s never about housing or what’s going on with the housing market.
It’s all his grievances. I’m shocked that women aren’t mentioned in the diatribe. I guess HH forgot to mention them.
Oh- and you do realize that the Sinola cartel actually is having a hard time shipping its drugs because they didn’t get their fentanyl shipments from China due to their shutdown during the virus. Lol.
Now THAT’S a global economy.
“The rebound is much quicker.”
I don’t see how. All the small shops and restaurants that are closed for a month or more and were teetering on the edge to begin with…I just don’t see how they or their employees get back on their feet. At the beginning of this somewhere I read that 75% of the restaurants will never reopen. I don’t know if the number will be that high but I could see 50%.
“You’re all cancelled.”
What does that mean?
“I just don’t see how they or their employees get back on their feet.”
There wasn’t anything fundamentally wrong with the economy before the government mandated slowdown. It’s not that the business wasn’t there.
Economists will tell you that this is a special kind of recession that simply isn’t as long lasting as others. But, of course, it depends on government support (i.e. the disaster aid and stimulus) and how long everything is shut down.
Being shut down for 2 weeks is a lot different than 3 months. We shall see.
And the $1200 isn’t the only checks the government will write. There will probably be another one as a stimulus. The unemployment payments are also much more generous than the normal unemployment. It pays a bigger percentage, allows gig workers to file as well as those just furloughed, and not completely laid off.
Also depends on your industry.
Travel is going to be very, very difficult. Social distancing will likely last for some time. Are you going to that all-inclusive, on a tightly packed plane? Probably not. Which is why the airlines want the government bailout.
Restaurants have tight margins and that’s a tough business as it is. Will probably see a bunch walk away only to start up again somewhere else.
We’ve never been through this before in the largest economy in the world. Hard to know how the US consumer will respond. Lots of people will still be in their jobs. Will they spend?
Also, different cities/states will have different impacts. Some closed down quickly. Might be able to open sooner. Hard to know until we come out on the other side.
“You’re all cancelled.”
What does that mean?
——————————————
I think it means he’s a postman and you’re mail to be stamped.
“If you are going to your cabin in Aspen, good luck. There are few ICU beds”
Agree on the ICU capacity, but where are these “cabins” in Aspen of which you speak?
Sounds like it’s already pretty bad here: https://chicago.suntimes.com/coronavirus/2020/4/1/21202205/northwestern-hospital-coronavirus-triage-tent-michael-dolan
“Portland Maine just banned all short term rentals, like airbnb, because they don’t want outsiders coming to town to “ride out” the virus.”
This is a good thing.
Keep the virus concentrated in the morally superior urban centers.
Gary,
I read that article, its dripping with contempt for, you guessed, DJT. All of this is DJT’s fault. All of it according to this article…but instead of blaming DJT directly (as one person did), the blames ‘the system’. Thanks dude. Then – the focus of the article and also happens to be a former Onion writer – predicts that millions of people will die. Even though he knows he has COVID, is being treated for COVID, and is recovering. “But I need a test, but I need a test!” For what? To tell you something you already know?” And he gets the ‘miracle’ malaria drug touted by Trump. I’m surprised he’s not whining about that too.
Why hasn’t NW developed its own in-house test yet? They have the capabilities, just as many other hospitals and institutions around the country have. I personally know people who’ve worked on in-house tests weeks ago for various hospitals.
This is why I stopped reading journalism years ago. It’s crap.
But that’s
“Portland Maine just banned all short term rentals, like airbnb, because they don’t want outsiders coming to town to “ride out” the virus.”
This is a good thing.
Keep the virus concentrated in the morally superior urban centers.”
————————————-
I have forgotten more about Portland Maine than you will ever know. It truly is superior, morally and as an urban center.
“read that 75% of the restaurants will never reopen”
Has to have been “independent” restaurants. Almost half of restaurants are chains (McD, Subway, Olive Garden, etc), the vast majority of which will survive.
“where are these “cabins” in Aspen”
This is a cabin, no?
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/20-Smith-Hill-Way-Woody-Creek-CO-81656/66694739_zpid/
“This is why I stopped reading journalism years ago. It’s crap.”
Getting all your news from Facebook. Solid choice.
“Has to have been “independent” restaurants. Almost half of restaurants are chains (McD, Subway, Olive Garden, etc), the vast majority of which will survive.”
What a glorious world, filled with Olive Garden breadsticks and big macs for everyone. I hear the chicken fingers at TGIF are amazing!
Trump, yesterday:
“Think of what would have happened if we didn’t do anything. I mean, I’ve had many friends — businesspeople — people with great, actually, common sense, they said, ‘Why don’t we ride it out?’ A lot of people have said — a lot of people have thought about it. ‘Ride it out. Don’t do anything, just ride it out and think of it as the flu.’ But it’s not the flu. It’s vicious.”
Are we now at the point where everyone can agree Trump’s an idiot on COVID, albeit for different reasons?
“Are we now at the point where everyone can agree Trump’s an idiot on COVID, albeit for different reasons?”
I’ll agree with you. I’ve always said Trump an idiot and he sometimes sends mixed messages. They’re politicians, not gods, and they all make mistakes. In this particular instance, however, the ‘whataboutism’ is totally relevant, because there are covidiots on both sides. If you’re interested, take a quick look on conservative media to see the absurd covidiotism from all our politicians. Nancy P. was in Chinatown, SF on February 24th said “That’s what we’re trying to do today is to say everything is fine here,” Pelosi said. “Come because precautions have been taken. The city is on top of the situation.” Uh-huh. The senate was also holding impeachment trials in late January and early Feb.. some of those senators skipped the trials and instead went to Trump’s coronavirus task force meetings. There’s pictures of it everywhere.
So it’s truly TDS to say “IT’S ALL TRUMPS FAULT!!!!” when its not, not when the house was signing the articles of impeachment as Wuhan police were welding the front of doors of citizens to keep them in their homes.
And if you watched the press conference yesterday, both dr Fauci and dr Brix said that we received bad, or a lack of data, from the CCP Chinese at the onset of this virus, and that made it difficult to even implement strategies to combat the virus. The CCP underplayed the seriousness, and the only source of info was secret, grainy, unsourced videos on anonymous twitter accounts. our federal government should not be making policy using videos from secret, grainy, unsourced videos on anonymous twitter accounts. And they didn’t, and now it seems like we are unprepared. Really, the pointing of fingers right now is no different than the blaming of witches for poisoning the wells during the black plague. The mob mentality and BLAME TRUMP (or blame nancy!) is literally the dumbest reaction to all of this. The real blame goes to the Chinese and WHO who have said “Hey guys, we got their weird virus, here’s what’s going on” and then shared data with the world. Instead, they suppressed everyone who tried to talk about it, completely lied about their figures, and then lied about controlling it. it’s not like any other country in the world, except for china’s neighbors, were more prepared, and that’s only because they dealt with SARS years back and they wear masks all the time anyway. I think the world would have been a lot more accepting of a natural virus that spread if they had been even slightly more transparent, but they were not. They hid it, covered it up, lied about the data, lied about deaths, stiffled the public’s discussion of it, didn’t allow foreign correspondents to report. And then nearly the rest of the planet is unprepared and gets slammed, from the US, to Canada, to all of Europe, to south american, Iran is awful right. But it’s Trump’s fault! or nancy’s fault!!
Keep in mind that china only recently said that it didn’t include in its coronavirus count people who *tested positive* but didn’t show symptoms. The estimates of those asymptomatic people is in the tens of thousands, or higher! It would have been nice to know that months ago China! Even back on January 9th, our academic and government was aware of the virus, but China was super secretive about what was going on, themselves gathering info from news reports!
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/more-details-emerge-new-coronavirus-wuhan-cluster
“Shortly after initial news emerged that a new coronavirus has been identified in Wuhan’s unexplained pneumonia outbreak, Chinese scientists close to the investigation revealed a few more details via Chinese media, including that they isolated the virus from one patient sample and fully sequenced its genome.”
Wouldn’t it have been nice to know, back in January, that this disease was spreading out of control? What about conferences or scientic papers about it? Instead, the government told the world about this plague by allowing chinese scientists to give select quotes to the chinese media, for worldwide dissemination, about this plague. This was less than 90 days ago! Think about that for a second, 90 days ago! Even american scientists knew little about the virus that was causing the plague.
But this is all Trump’s fault. Or nancy’s fault. right?
Wouldn’t it have been nice to know, back in January, that this disease was spreading out of control?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-cdc-exclusiv/exclusive-u-s-axed-cdc-expert-job-in-china-months-before-virus-outbreak-idUSKBN21910S
Several months before the coronavirus pandemic began, the Trump administration eliminated a key American public health position in Beijing intended to help detect disease outbreaks in China, Reuters has learned.
The American disease expert, a medical epidemiologist embedded in China’s disease control agency, left her post in July, according to four sources with knowledge of the issue.
Oh Madeline, go seek professional help, really, go seek professional help. You have a really terminal case of TDS.
Regardless, that position (that the person voluntarily left early before finishing her term), was of little to no significance. Your theory is that Dr. Quik, the laid off embedded epidemiologist, would have saved the world!! That’s nonsense because we could have gotten info from any one of our allies’ embedded disease experts. you’re really no better than then chinese CCP trolls madeline.
“One disease expert told Reuters he was skeptical that the U.S. resident adviser would have been able to get earlier or better information to the Trump administration, given the Chinese government’s suppression of information.
“In the end, based on circumstances in China, it probably wouldn’t have made a big difference,” Scott McNabb, who was a CDC epidemiologist for 20 years and is now a research professor at Emory University. “The problem was how the Chinese handled it. What should have changed was the Chinese should have acknowledged it earlier and didn’t.””
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/exclusive-u.s.-axed-cdc-expert-job-in-china-months-before-virus-outbreak-2020-03-22-0
“China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence Says”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says
Deborah Birx, the State Department immunologist advising the White House on its response to the outbreak, said Tuesday that China’s public reporting influenced assumptions elsewhere in the world about the nature of the virus.
“The medical community made — interpreted the Chinese data as: This was serious, but smaller than anyone expected,” she said at a news conference on Tuesday. “Because I think probably we were missing a significant amount of the data, now that what we see happened to Italy and see what happened to Spain.”
China isn’t the only country with suspect public reporting. Western officials have pointed to Iran, Russia, Indonesia and especially North Korea, which has not reported a single case of the disease, as probable under-counts. Others including Saudi Arabia and Egypt may also be playing down their numbers.
“Wouldn’t it have been nice to know, back in January, that this disease was spreading out of control? ”
https://mynorthwest.com/1758762/coronavirus-washington-seattle-flu-study/?
When researchers at UW in Seattle found cases of COVID19 among flu samples taken during December-January, CDC and government told her to back off and tried to conceal it.
You’re right it had been slowly spreading in the community much longer than we thought and we were just not capable of identifying those flu negative flu-like illnesses in the community. Many countries that started detecting cases in January are so far doing much better than those countries which remained unprepared till late February/March.
The times that we were laughing at China and Italy are long gone. The reset of the world is now looking down on NYC and US as the poorest health system that don’t even have masks and gowns to fight against this crisis. I was shocked to see those nurses wearing garbage bags as PPE at Mt Sinai Hp.
“I have forgotten more about Portland Maine than you will ever know. It truly is superior, morally and as an urban center.”
Congrats, you want a cookie or something?
The 559th largest city in the US most definitely not an urban center no matter what you know about it,
Maybe if you call in NE Bucktown you’d have a chance
Mouse, if this article is true (and it appears to be hearsay, and not reported anywhere else I’ve read, and I’m fairly well read on these topics), that’s a complete and utter failure of bureaucracy. As they say, the virus moves faster than bureaucracy.
As for the lack of PPE, that is a problem too. I won’t bother telling you exactly why our national stockpile was depleted, but it involves a previous administration who depleted the stockpiles and never bothered to restock for the next guy coming in. This is a fact, you can google it yourself. It also involves decisions by our corporate class to offshore manufacturing, mostly to China and south east asian, where the greatest demand for masks had been. But that’s neither here nor there.
The garbage bags was a stunt, the internet is full of people putting all kinds of stuff as masks.
The rest of the world is not looking down on NYC and the US with the poorest health system. That’s a flat out LIE. Look at the US death rates per 1,000,000. Our numbers are way better than the European’s socialized health care.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/
I get that everyone is stressed out about this, and couped up in the house all day, but stop spreading lies.
“This is a cabin, no?”
One with a private hydro electric dam, no less. Love the covered hot tub.
Here is an account of what information was available in January and February and what the response was: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/us-intelligence-reports-from-january-and-february-warned-about-a-likely-pandemic/2020/03/20/299d8cda-6ad5-11ea-b5f1-a5a804158597_story.html
And let’s not forget that Bolton dismantled the White House pandemic response team. And I’m still waiting for the “millions of beautiful tests” that were promised weeks ago.
“The 559th largest city in the US”
C’mon, Johnny, it’s the center city of the 106th largest metro. Right behind such notable urban centers as Modesto and Lancaster, PA.
“And I’m still waiting for the “millions of beautiful tests” that were promised weeks ago.”
Mike Pence said point blank that everyone will be able to be tested.
Didn’t realize he meant “before 2025”.
“Look at the US death rates per 1,000,000. Our numbers are way better than the European’s socialized health care.”
You know that # of deaths has a lag of two weeks. We are going to see 1,000-2,000 deaths per day in April. That would lead to a rate comparable or worse than EU countries. There are also people dying at their homes or in the waiting rooms of ER, so actual # of deaths is under-reported just like in Italy or China.
IL and Chicago will likely not be hit as hard as NYC, so let’s hope we can keep the # of deaths to less than 500.
Nurses wearing garbage bags are not a joke. Everyone is wearing swimming goggles, caps, or shoe covers that they made by themselves. They also need to wear the same mask for days and are scared to death because it would not effectively protect them any more. That is why nurses and doctors keep on getting infected and dying.
“One family member told me that they are running out of food this week and won’t have any food until the stimulus checks are sent.”
My God. Then there’s the tone-deaf like David Geffen twittering from his $100 million yacht, Mike Bloomberg who wasted $800 million on his Trump-jealousy campaign, and our fat-obese food-supplied governor Pritzker who spent $200 million to buy his seat. These people should think about the poor. They should have given that money to help others, not themselves. All these types live in rich enclaves like Glencoe, they should organize pitchfork rallies against these greedy pigs.
This summer activists could picket and protest outside Bryn Mawr Country Club and let these people know just what kind of callous ilk they are.
“I won’t bother telling you exactly why our national stockpile was depleted, but it involves a previous administration who depleted the stockpiles and never bothered to restock for the next guy coming in.”
It’s been 3 years. STOP BLAMING OBAMA!
In 2019, the Trump Administration ran a pandemic simulation and FAILED it. They knew what their problems were then and ignored it. Just like everything else.
They don’t have enough qualified people in the correct jobs, by the way. What’s the Executive Branch job opening percentage? 25%? 30%?
When everything is revealed about their incompetence, I hope some people go to jail.
“China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence Says”
Duh!!!!!
Of COURSE they did. They lie about their own PMI every month. You think they’re going to talk about a virus outbreak?
But, again, it didn’t take a rocket scientist to know what was going on in Wuhan. All you had to do is read the New York Times (excellent reporting).
Where WAS this Administration?
The incompetence. It will go down in history, beside Hoover.
Ironically, both were businessmen with NO political experience who were in over their heads.
Experience matters. Let’s hope this is the last time we elect someone with absolutely NO political or governmental skills.
“Keep in mind that china only recently said that it didn’t include in its coronavirus count people who *tested positive* but didn’t show symptoms”.
Who gives a shit what China did or didn’t know right now?
No one.
Our intelligence agencies warned Trump in January and February. They were all over what was going on over there (along with our reporters.)
This president chose to ignore it all. “It’s just the flu.”
Incompetence.
Oh, and another thing, Joe Biden wrote an op-ed about what the administration should be doing about the coronavirus.
Date?
January 27th.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/01/27/coronavirus-donald-trump-made-us-less-prepared-joe-biden-column/4581710002/
Please let’s have a real government again. One that works.
Why isn’t Trump locking down the ENTIRE country right now? All it would take is a few phone calls to his deranged governor friends.
We will never get out of shelter-in-place as long as Floridians are hanging out in restaurants and Iowans are going to barbecues in Des Moines. My god. Stop the madness now. Oh wait- Florida is finally going shelter in place. Tomorrow. On April 2.
But this president is spineless. He doesn’t want to take “responsibility.” Let the governors decide then it’s NOT on him.
More mistakes and incompetence.
“The senate was also holding impeachment trials in late January and early Feb.. some of those senators skipped the trials and instead went to Trump’s coronavirus task force meetings. There’s pictures of it everywhere.”
Was this while Trump went to 11 political rallies and played 9 rounds of golf? Flew Air Force One to Davos and had dinner with bank CEOs and then went to India?
Take some f*cking responsibility. Can you even imagine if FDR was golfing in the weeks after the bombing of Pearl Harbor? My god.
Incompetence.
Gary,
Come on’, seriously, Gary, you’re spreading fake news. Trump did not dismantle the pandemic response team. And really, anything in the WashPo is fake news. It’s not a reliable news source. It used to be. But it’s not anymore. The Gateway Pundit has better sources in the administration than WaPo does these days. PJ Media has better sources than WaPo reporters. Three years into this administration, there’s virtually no one left with any real information in the administration secreting feeding scoops to WaPo. But WaPo’s *always* anonymous sources are either outright fakes (follow conservative pundits with WH access on twitter personally calling out the actual fake sources of most MSM reporters) or low-level nobodies giving inaccurate accounts of fourth hand knowledge. The once source they had, that secretary of trump, who got a little tipsy with a WaPo reporter at a party one night, and talked a little too much, got outted by the very same reporter a few days later. She was unceremoniously walked out of the white house. Do you really think ANYONE ‘in the know’ is going to talk to WaPo after that?
So here’s politifact, fact checking the fake news about Bolton cutting the CDC response team nonsense. Verdict: all fake news
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/17/instagram-posts/celebrities-are-sharing-misleading-post-about-trum/
“And I’m still waiting for the “millions of beautiful tests” that were promised weeks ago.”
Mike Pence said point blank that everyone will be able to be tested.”
Anon(tfo), you go wait in line to get a coronavirus test. Go for it. I dare you. You want a test, right? How bad do you want that test? You go wait in line with a bunch of sickly people coughing everywhere. You go to your doctors office for you mild cough, and breath in that air, just to see if you actually have the wuhan virus or not.
Oh wait, you don’t WANT to go wait in line with sick people to get a test because your symptoms are so mild?
You know, they can diagnose covid in multiple other ways. They can use CT, or subjective and observational symptoms. The test just confirms what the doctors already know. In fact, the experts themselves, and I believe jelly belly even said, in his conference, that only 1 in 10 people who get tested actually have it. Everyone else is showing up with other respiratory issues. probably because we’re all breathing the same filthy indoor air 24/7. I konw one guy convinced he had covid, showed up to the ER and he got the test, came back negative, he had bronchitis. heck, he probably has it now after catching it at the hospital.
Everyone, especially online, just wants to vent and blame Trump for everything. But it’s being truly dishonest with yourself if you think a natural virus that is raving the world is Trump’s fault.
Homedelete,
Sometimes you post interesting information but if you’re relying upon PJ Media and the Gateway Pundit for your news then your credibility rating just went way down. Those sources are scary and highly biased. Often their headlines aren’t even consistent with their own stories.
As for the White House pandemic response team…I am not in disagreement with your Politifact link. The head of the team resigned in May 2018 and Bolton reorganized the team. It’s not clear why Ziemer “resigned” but at the end of the day there was no White House response team. As Sabrina said earlier this administration is notorious for having a revolving door with tons of open positions. Total chaos.
“Congrats, you want a cookie or something?”
————————
A cookie would be splendid. Chocolate with macadamia nuts, please.
This is getting ridiculous, these politicians have no fucking clue what they are doing to the economy, and if you say something contrary to what they recommend you’re a “covidiot”. We need to start getting back to work before april 15th or the economy will catastrophically implode.
The stimulus was fucking stupid and horribly implemented, yeah lets incentivize people to go on unemployment, not buy oil at historic low prices to keep the oil industry afloat, give loans to idiotically managed corporations, printing trillions of dollars to prop up the fucking bond market, rather than actually giving it to productive citizens, and Im sure there’s a shit load more pork in there, but yea, lets not actually properly incentivize small businesses to keep their employees on the payroll so their jobs disappear forever.
In addition to that, thanks to really stupid (mostly blue state) governors implementing state wide urban centric policies to their entire state, our economy is going to be in the absolute shitter for the next decade.
” Trump did not dismantle the pandemic response team. ”
——————————–
That’s a lie.
You can always delegate authority, you can never delegate responsibility.
Bolton was personally picked by Trump. Bolton made the direct decision to cut the NSA team handling disease issues.
Sing and dance all you want, but the disbanding of the team is Trump’s baby.
“Sometimes you post interesting information but if you’re relying upon PJ Media and the Gateway Pundit for your news then your credibility rating just went way down. Those sources are scary and highly biased. Often their headlines aren’t even consistent with their own stories.”
If you’re being honest, you would say that about the press in total, not just sources that don’t jive with your world view
Anyone claiming otherwise is full of shit
Or is a NPC
Scary sources – LOFL
Trump hated Bolton and shit canned him quickly as he’s a complete asshat
“A cookie would be splendid. Chocolate with macadamia nuts, please”
You didn’t spec what kind of chocolate (though there really is only choice).
Need to make sure you are a Russia or Chinese Bot
“Can you even imagine if FDR was golfing in the weeks after the bombing of Pearl Harbor?”
Well, that would have meant that someone cured polio-induced paralysis, so it would have meant a Nobel Prize for someone.
“Trump hated Bolton and shit canned him quickly”
So, Trump’s not in charge? Who hired Bolton? Was it Nancy, or Chuck?
Joe Biden: He might not know where he is, or what the hell is going on, but he’s ready to tell you what to do in a societal collapse situation. LOL.
If “Bolton made the direct decision to cut the NSA team handling disease issues” is true, then that is the best evidence that Covid is a Deep State operation. Bolton is a notorious ZioNeocon.
If anyone actually believes that hospitals are being overrun in the USA, then you’re the covidiot.
At least we don’t have to talk about global warming anymore. Because in this new reality we’re moving into, no one is going to have any ability to waste energy on idiotic decadence like global warming.
There is no time for self-righteousness when you’re waiting in line for government mandated food cubes, which you suspect might be made out of people. Greta Thuneberg’s going to be laid off just like everyone else.
tinfoil helmet head:
I won’t address the idiocy of all of your points, but let’s start with the fact that Greta Thunberg is a high school student, so not likely to be laid off.
Also, any hospitals that aren’t being overrun are very likely to be in next 30 days.
But, if you. think this is all a hoax, please feel free to go out and wander the streets, touch everything you can and then put your fingers in your mouth. But when you get a hoax virus, please stay in your apartment and don’t turn to the hospitals or infect others while you recover from your hoax fever.
It’s the flu, bro.
And Chris Cuomo will not die.
PS So, McCormick Place is set up as a field hospital. I call on all CC regulars to drive over there and report back. There’s nothing going on. There will not be either. Don’t rely on sensationalism from the media. Drive over there yourself and see on your own.
“The 559th largest city in the US”
C’mon, Johnny, it’s the center city of the 106th largest metro. Right behind such notable urban centers as Modesto and Lancaster, PA.
———————————
I said superior, not largest.
“only 1 in 10 people who get tested actually have it. Everyone else is showing up with other respiratory issues.”
In NY, the global epicenter, the probability of testing positive is 40-50%, because only really sick people get tested.
The other issue is the sensitivity of the test. i.e, only 50-70% of patients who have COVID test positive for it. That’s why some Hp are having you get two tests to make sure you don’t have it. The low sensitivity of the test is the reason that some countries are against universal testing. You may end up releasing people who actually have COVID and they are going to spread it to others because they think they don’t have it. During this pandemic, anyone with non-severe respiratory symptoms should self quarantine and wear masks regardless of the test results.
“The 559th largest city in the US”
C’mon, Johnny, it’s the center city of the 106th largest metro. Right behind such notable urban centers as Modesto and Lancaster, PA.
———————————
I said superior, not largest.”
There was no comma in my original statement.
Portland, ME isn’t an urban center period. Maybe it qualifies as a morally superior hick ‘burg
“If anyone actually believes that hospitals are being overrun in the USA, then you’re the covidiot.”
Wow! You really believe this? Then where are all the videos of crying healthcare workers coming from? Why is Trump sending emergency aid to NY? Why did Chicago send out an emergency alert the other day asking all healthcare workers to register as volunteers?
And if it’s “just the flu” why is it more contagious with a higher mortality rate? Why did Trump tell the American people that over 200k might die? Was he lying or dumb in your opinion?
I’d ignore any post from HD or HH. One is here as a troll trying to “own the libs,” as someone rightly said. The other is an out-and-out Nazi.
By responding to either, you’re just encouraging them. Though HD’s schizophrenic rants on the virus as he shifts positions to defend his “Dear Leader” Trump do have a certain element of humor.
“Sometimes you post interesting information but if you’re relying upon PJ Media and the Gateway Pundit for your news then your credibility rating just went way down. Those sources are scary and highly biased. Often their headlines aren’t even consistent with their own stories.”
Gary, I don’t go to gateway pundit or pj media to consume media. Honestly, I don’t. I’m still kind of a drudge guy and whatever he links to.
My point was only that obscure conservative news outlets have far better access to the scoops and sources in the administration than supposedly reputable newspapers like WaPo and NYT. The conservative news media regularly points out the ‘fake news’ of the main stream news media. And it really just comes down to specific reporters, that everyone knows, that somehow always seem to come up with scoops that are totally wrong, fake, misinterpreted. No one in the administration is talking to these reporters, everyone knows to stay the heck away from them… but they somehow always find ‘anonymous sources close to the administration’ before telling some lie or fake news. This is a real thing, it really does happen, and is well documented, if you just look it up. Trump knows about it too and when he says ‘fake news’ it’s not just an attack on the press, but on specific reporters who literally fabricate stories using ‘anonymous sources close to the adminstration.”
This is more than the flu. And it is certainly more contagious. And especially so in cramped, newly diseased urban areas. It is also more deadly, especially for the seriously unhealthy and ill, the elderly, and especially the obese. I saw a doctor on TV last night say that the data from seattle and NY indicates that the average BMI for a plague patient under the age of fifty years of age was 33!
“By responding to either, you’re just encouraging them. Though HD’s schizophrenic rants on the virus as he shifts positions to defend his “Dear Leader” Trump do have a certain element of humor.”
You better get used to seeing your dear leader for another four (and hopefully eight or twelve!) more years. Biden is going to be drooling on himself by the time the debates roll around. It’s literally elder abuse what they’re doing to him. The average alzeimers patient lives about 7 years from the time they start showing symptoms. Biden is beyond just showing symptoms at this point, he’s well into the weeds. He’s 12 to 18 months from being unable to read a clock.
““only 1 in 10 people who get tested actually have it. Everyone else is showing up with other respiratory issues.”
In NY, the global epicenter, the probability of testing positive is 40-50%, because only really sick people get tested.
The other issue is the sensitivity of the test. i.e, only 50-70% of patients who have COVID test positive for it. That’s why some Hp are having you get two tests to make sure you don’t have it. The low sensitivity of the test is the reason that some countries are against universal testing. You may end up releasing people who actually have COVID and they are going to spread it to others because they think they don’t have it. During this pandemic, anyone with non-severe respiratory symptoms should self quarantine and wear masks regardless of the test results.”
You’re right. Not sure if NYC is the global epicenter, even though it wants to call itself that! New York always thinks it is the center of everything.
The actual Wuhan death count will never really be known to the outside world, and primarily elderly male population crammed in tiny one bedroom flats throughout northern Italy is being decimated.
Hey, how about some “good” news. Social distancing isn’t just the best way to contain the virus, it also has a positive impact on the recovery (compared to doing nothing):
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/03/upshot/coronavirus-cities-social-distancing-better-employment.html
In 1918, cities that committed earlier and longer to interventions like banning public gatherings and closing schools didn’t fare worse for disrupting their economies for longer. Many of those cities actually had relatively larger gains in manufacturing employment, manufacturing output and bank assets in 1919 and into the next few years, according to a new study from researchers at the Federal Reserve and M.I.T. This is particularly clear among Western cities that had more time to prepare for a pandemic that hit the East Coast first.
For cities with the most aggressive interventions, there’s no trade-off apparent in this data between saving lives and hurting the economy.
“a troll trying to “own the libs,””
Yeah, got no response to that question.
“Wow! You really believe this? Then where are all the videos of crying healthcare workers coming from?”
Did anyone drive down to the emergency field hospital at McCormick Place? Don’t believe the fake news media.
trending on Twitter: #FilmYourHospital
That is such horsecrap! Random people shoot random videos of random locations and you believe that over reports from actual reporters with journalistic standards? And you also believe that the hospitalization numbers are made up? And the deaths?
I was at Northwestern Memorial Hospital emergency room a month ago and it was a zoo. And that was before Covid-19 had really taken off. They had beds with people in them in the hallways.
“Did anyone drive down to the emergency field hospital at McCormick Place? Don’t believe the fake news media.
trending on Twitter: #FilmYourHospital”
Certainly there are Hp in rural area where they barely have any corona patients. That’s not the case in Chicago.
IL had more than 50 deaths today reaching 210 now. Don’t think it’s possible to keep it under 500. Let’s hope that death# will be under 1000. IL ICU beds are 70% full today, so there is still some room. Thanks to all the docs and nurses fighting at the front line with insufficient PPE. McCormick is ready to open when city of Chicago runs out of bed.
“McCormick is ready to open when city of Chicago runs out of bed.”
Yes, yesterday Priztker says “[t]he COVID-19 pandemic shows a ‘profound failure of national government’”
24 hours later he is giving a press conference from a 3,000 bed hospital built by the federal government in less than 120 hours.
This is the partisanship you get from a guy who inherited $4,000,000,000, doesn’t control any of his own fortune (his brother controls the family trusts) and spends $200,000,000 of his own money to buy his office.
Congratulations Illinois, you earned it.
““a troll trying to “own the libs,””
Yeah, got no response to that question.”
GFYO. How’s that for a response?
“I was at Northwestern Memorial Hospital emergency room a month ago and it was a zoo. And that was before Covid-19 had really taken off. They had beds with people in them in the hallways.”
It’s not COVID-19. The world health organization has zero credibility at this point. zero. They totally bungled this response. You think Trump was slow? Look as the chinese CCP propaganda coming out of the WHO back in January.
Accordingly, I am no longer calling it the Wuhan Virus. Not because it’s racist (Wuhan is not a race it’s a city where the virus first exploded) but because it’s no longer accurate.
I’m not calling it the CCP Plague. Because it is. Even the newspapers of record are questioning the ‘official’ chinese figures of only 3,000 deaths from the CCP plague when the rest of the world’s death rates is skyrocketing. It’s likely upwards of 40,000 deaths in Wuhan alone, you can google the news sources yourself. What was first a bad flu season has apparently mutated into a plague that is spreading throughout the world, and it gets worse in every country it visits, as it now ravages through South America and Africa with reckless abandon, far surpassing any death toll it achieved in Asia. This is the CCP plague. they lied about the severity of the virus, and people around the world are now dying. The CCP and communist china are responsible for this. Not the innocent chinese people who are terrorized under their communist dictator, but the government itself bungled this BIG time and now it’s spreading around the world. And JB complains it takes 120 hours to build a 3,000 bed hospital. He’s no better than the Chinese communists.
HD,
I don’t think anyone is calling the Army Corp of Engineers a failure – they built the hospitals. I think it’s pretty evident that people are calling Trump and his ass colleagues failures. Two very different things.
Trump is a disaster and has always been. He blames Cuomo for not buying supplies 3 years ago, but on the very same topic blames previous administrations for his lack of readiness, despite having been in office for nearing 4 years. Any man who can’t take responsibility for his failures isn’t a man at all. The guy’s a douche.
Come to mention it HD… you’re kind of douche yourself.
“24 hours later he is giving a press conference from a 3,000 bed hospital built by the federal government in less than 120 hours. ”
———————————-
Uh, No. The Corps installed beds and machines in a pre-existing structure. It didn’t “build” a hospital.
As for mouse thinking that the City is going to run out of beds — ain’t gonna happen. At the absolute rip-out rate of $175 per night per room (I thought Lightfoot was against corruption, not a facilitator of it), every hotel in Chicago will be throwing rooms at the City to provide beds.
“At the absolute rip-out rate of $175 per night per room (I thought Lightfoot was against corruption, not a facilitator of it), every hotel in Chicago will be throwing rooms at the City to provide beds.”
Not for patients. What’s your source?
“Not for patients. What’s your source?”
——————————–
Sun Times March 23rd. People who test positive will be quarantined in hotels to save hospital beds.
Per Her Nibs: “We don’t want to have to admit them and use a hospital bed just because there isn’t somewhere safe for them to stay. “”
“I don’t think anyone is calling the Army Corp of Engineers a failure – they built the hospitals. I think it’s pretty evident that people are calling Trump and his ass colleagues failures. Two very different things.”
I can’t fix your stupidity. You’re too blinded by your hatred of Trump.
It’s not a hatred. He’s incompetent without question.
Making Merica #1 in COVID 19 was not what we were all hoping for.
HD, do you support Jared Kushner having any type of leadership position in this crisis? One would think a competent leader would put qualified and experienced people to lead, right? What experience does Jared have?
Honest question…
Dan P: Or perhaps your CC name should be D3 (or “The Second Good Dan”)? We’ve had a Good Dan (Dan #2) and a Bad Dan (helmet) on here for a long time. Or maybe something cool like “Threes”? (An old shred acquaintance of mine was (died not long ago) known as J2 but was often referred to as Twos or 2s; oddly enough, nobody did that for J1). Anyways, you’ll quickly figure out each longtime CCer’s character, which goes beyond residential real estate opinions.
To everyone else: Would now not be a great time for Groove to make a comeback?
“Making Merica #1 in COVID 19 was not what we were all hoping for.”
Dude, serious, go to hell and GFYO. People are dying and you’re cheering. You’re one sick dude.
“HD, do you support Jared Kushner having any type of leadership position in this crisis? One would think a competent leader would put qualified and experienced people to lead, right? What experience does Jared have?”
Get ready to scream at the sky, again, when Trump is reeelected. You got four more years, and likely 8 years of Nikki Haley after that. That’s the answer to your question, Dan P.
“The guy’s a douche.
Come to mention it HD… you’re kind of douche yourself.”
Oh well, you just forfeited your right to post a “Hate Has No Home Here” sign outside your dwelling. You are filled with hate. But I guess you could still post one, just like the rest who are in denial they hate their 63 million fellow citizens who didn’t vote for the criminal clintons.
So proud tonight to hear President Trump call out our daddy’s inherited-wealth spoiled brat governor who never worked a day in his life. (Yeah, if I had $1 billion free dollars, I also could rent an office in the Loop and claim to be a “venture-=capitalist”!!! lol) JB bought the governor job with $200 million of spoiled brat wealth, since he couldn’t buy the Senate seat off Blago earlier.
So, where is our hometown Pritzker Hyatt hotel clan? Are they helping the poor or COVID, did they donate empty hotel rooms? They are full of greed.
It’s really sad to see ARROGANT blue states and cities like Chicago begging Trump and whining. After all, the President of the United States has 49 other states to worry about. JB? Failing at his own, and hoarding his own wealth…and begging the broke US taxpayer to pay, where he could be doing it.
We need a new “Anon” here. We have the bad one: annony. We have a so-so one anon(tfo). What we need is a good one with virtue.
“So proud tonight to hear President Trump call out our daddy’s inherited-wealth spoiled brat governor who never worked a day in his life.”
Just a reminder: HH doesn’t live in Chicago or the state of Illinois. He never has. If he did, he would just get in his car and drive himself down to the Convention Center and see that they have set it up for hundreds of beds, as the media saw and reported on late last week. But instead, he calls it all “fake.”
Like my friend’s mother who just died of Coronavirus in the ICU in the western suburbs? Is she a hoax too?
Pritzker’s doing a great job during all of this. In fact, he shut us down pretty quickly and it could be the reason we’re not seeing the spike in cases like New Orleans, Detroit or New Jersey (knock on wood.) But we shall see. Still have the next 2 weeks to get through.
Illinois not expected to see peak cases until the end of the month.
The incompetence continues with this administration. Don’t worry everyone: Jared Kushner is going to save us. No, wait, even better: Peter Navarro.
When historians review this time period all they will be able to say is: what the fuck.
“Get ready to scream at the sky, again, when Trump is reeelected.”
Thousands are going to be dead. Including in the rural areas. Millions more may still be out of work or will be struggling financially. You think they’re going to vote for the guy who screwed it all up?
Basically, the worst president in American history?
Um…no.
There was already a blue wave coming. Now it will be a tsunami.
“Sun Times March 23rd. People who test positive will be quarantined in hotels to save hospital beds.”
They changed their minds on this, didn’t they? Once it became clear that the Army Corp could build out the convention center quickly enough?
Plus, the Chinese found out that putting the infected, but not dying, into hotel rooms didn’t work. They tried it for like 5 days and found that hotel room workers who cleaned the rooms and could provide food, refused to go into the buildings to do it. Also, the infected were extremely isolated sitting by themselves in a random room like that.
They made quicker recoveries going into the sports centers where they could talk to each other, socially interact, and do things like light exercise etc. Medical staff could also keep a better eye on them than in the individual rooms.
So let us hope that we’ve decided against the hotel room option.
What some hotel rooms are doing is supplying rooms for medical staff who need somewhere close to the hospital to stay and/or because they’re coming from outside of the area and have nowhere to sleep.
“You think Trump was slow? Look as the chinese CCP propaganda coming out of the WHO back in January.”
Stop it!!!!!
Trump was asked about the virus on Jan 22 at Davos. There were jokes going around as far back as the week before Davos that all the world’s leaders and billionaires were going to go to Davos and all come down with it.
They ALL had warning about what was coming then.
That was over 2 months ago.
Azar and the US intelligence agencies were also telling Trump in January and early February that Trump needed to take it seriously. The Intelligence Agencies put it in the daily presidential briefs.
What more do they have to do?
Oh- and all of the western press was reporting on the lack of space in the Wuhan hospitals, the sheer number of patients, and let us not forget the hero doctor who was the first whistleblower and then ended up dying of the virus.
All of this was public knowledge by you and I.
We don’t even have to be Dr. Fauqi to know that, hey, maybe the US should start preparing…just in case.
The Administration’s response comes from the top down. Our “top” is an ignorant, incompetent con-man. This is the price we’re paying.
“Congratulations Illinois, you earned it.”
Illinois has fewer cases than Florida.
I’ll take Pritzker every day over those other fools.
“Did anyone drive down to the emergency field hospital at McCormick Place? Don’t believe the fake news media.”
If you lived here HH, you could drive down there.
But you don’t. So you can’t.
Here’s the tour if you haven’t seen it yet.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-mccormick-place-convert-field-hospital-20200403-duafjtk25vcjpi2ywdfqpd24le-story.html
“You think they’re going to vote for the guy who screwed it all up?”
Apparently. His approval rating is damn near an all time high.
One thing we haven’t covered is: will Trump Tower Hotel go BK? Will it ever open again with Trump ownership?
It already was struggling the last 3 years anyway. But a full shutdown for several months is going to really hurt.
Will the Trump Organization eventually end up selling that hotel? (they don’t own the condo portion of the building)
Also, you all going to ask where the Pritzkers are in giving up their hotel rooms (they actually don’t own most of the hotels. They license them out so they can’t “give” them to anyone)- but Trump DOES own his own hotels.
Where is the offer to provide Trump Tower Chicago or the hotel down the street from the White House?
(Birds chirping.)
“Apparently. His approval rating is damn near an all time high.”
Nah.
It got a bump when he FINALLY said that the virus was real and 200,000 of us were going to die, but it was a smaller bump than any other president in the last 30 years facing a crisis (W after 9/11 etc.)
People rally around the flag, but they’re not doing that here like they have in prior emergencies.
And in the last week, that “bump” has already deflated.
He’ll go back down to the low 40s (and probably less) before all of this is over.
Presidential elections are decided by the economy in the second and third quarters of the election year. But that’s when thousands of Americans aren’t dying. This year- there’s going to be a lot of trauma. It’s like 9/11 on a national scale.
Is this president capable of being the empathizer in chief?
We all know the answer to that.
His narcissism will doom him. It’s inevitable.
Also, you all going to ask where the Pritzkers are in giving up their hotel rooms (they actually don’t own most of the hotels. They license them out so they can’t “give” them to anyone)- but Trump DOES own his own hotels.
You’ve got TDS bad
The whatabout-ism with you has reached new levels. The Pritzker’s own at least 2 hotels in Chicago and are real Billionaires (not fake like Trump).
Watching you implode in real time is fascinating
“So let us hope that we’ve decided against the hotel room option. ”
———————————–
The City signed the contracts. It’s on the hook for 2,000 rooms. I can understand getting the rooms. It’s the $175 per night that shows this is graft for the record books
“GFYO. How’s that for a response?”
Sounds like the tears of a snowflake to me. BooHoo.
“Will the Trump Organization eventually end up selling that hotel?”
They’d sell it tomorrow, if the buyer would take the retail space, too, at the book value they carry it at.
“They’d sell it tomorrow, if the buyer would take the retail space, too, at the book value they carry it at.”
The retail space is their own fault. If they can’t get even a coffee shop to go in next to where thousands of tourists are hanging out for 6 months each year then I don’t know what to say.
“The whatabout-ism with you has reached new levels. The Pritzker’s own at least 2 hotels in Chicago and are real Billionaires (not fake like Trump).”
I said “most.” I don’t know all the family holdings but I know that Hilton, Hyatt and Marriott don’t actually own most of their hotels. They license out the name/brands. Just like McDonald’s.
I have no idea what JB himself owns. He’s just an heir to the trust. Probably has NO control over anything going on with those businesses.
Unlike the current President whose own children are actually running the entire operation.
So why the double standard? Mar-a-lago should be used to house the Florida homeless like many cities are doing with its hotel rooms.
“The retail space is their own fault.”
False. Because I don’t live in Chicago (lol)…here is the story.
The Sun-Times was owned by Canadians, Conrad Black, etc. They decided to sell the site. Since they were not locals, they literally (I’m not kidding) called upon Trump to develop the site, since Trump was the top developer in the world at the time. They didn’t even consider Fifield or Pritzkers or McCaffery because they weren’t global level accomplished.
So, Trump was basically given the site. Then Daley DEMANDED that Trump use Skidmore as the architect (otherwise no-go). So, Trump did hire Adrian Smith. Google it. Adrian Smith had pretty much free reign to design the building. That’s why Trump tower Chicago looks NOTHING like his buildings in NYC. Oh, back then everyone was praising the building, because it was “Chicago” not the gold version of Trump etc.
So, anyone today who criticizes Trump Tower Chicago is actually hating Daley and Adrian Smith. People have so much hate for Trump they lose rationality over it. I recall that Daley and Smith decided to demand the “antenna” on top of Trump Tower Chicago. It isn’t functional as in any real way, no broadcast etc. Trump at the time complained: “it’s useless and it costs another $1 million dollars for nothing” He’s formally right. The antenna on top of Trump Tower Chicago is useless and not even impressive.
So, blame Adrian Smith of Skidmore. Google him. He has FULL REIGN on that building, and the Second City losers demanded that Trump simply acquiesce, he had to. Nonetheless, Trump has a building in Chicago.
Oh, he’s a loser though! He married a model. He succeeded in Hollywood with a No. 1 show.
What can fat obese spoiled “daddy’s money” NB do to compare? Not much. Maybe he can take the bagels out of his cheeks and stop eating? He’s nowhere in Trump’s league of accomplishment and neither are any of you who will downvote this post.
JB not NB
Since you don’t live in Chicago HH, let me refresh the scenario for you.
Trump has owned the building for over a decade but he only kept it because Deutsche Bank ultimately decided not to foreclose on him.
He has never successfully leased out anything in the base (although, I do recall about 7 years ago a hair salon opening there briefly) even though one of the most successful projects in the city in the last 40 years is directly across the river. It’s called…The River Walk.
Not only that, as I said, THOUSANDS of people, mostly tourists, are literally standing right next to his building for 6 months looking for somewhere to get ice cream, a coffee, or something to drink. But there is NOTHING. Nada. (You wouldn’t know this as you don’t live here.)
Just tells you, once again, what a horrible businessman he is. Just terrible.
Then he sends one of the kids here to try and get some business in the last few years. Lol. Laughable.
Instead, in what the President himself calls, “the best economy ever” they STILL can’t lease a single store front (and certainly aren’t going to now.)
Oh, and the President is also “fat obese spoiled “daddy’s money”” so it’s not like you’re putting much of an insult on JB. At least TRY to insult if you’re going to go there.
“So, anyone today who criticizes Trump Tower Chicago”
By the way, no one here has ever “criticized” the actual building.
I’ve always thought they did a very good job with it. No one here has ever called it ugly or an eyesore.
It took several versions before the City would agree to it. But it certainly is a statement building on that site. It doesn’t do much for the skyline, which is probably good in the long haul as you still want the Sears and the Hancock to be the key buildings but when you are actually ON the river or in the South Loop looking north up Wabash, it definitely has a nice design.
But you wouldn’t know any of this HH, as you don’t live here.
But as you say HH, it wasn’t because of Trump that it looks like it does. That was the architect, and the city, which rejected several versions of it before they agreed on the current building.
Oh, and Trump doesn’t really have a “building” in Chicago. He owns only 10% of it now. But damn, that must be painful, because it’s the hotel part and that’s shut down right now. As I said before, it was already struggling before this with occupancy. Can it ever come back?
“Oh, he’s a loser though! He married a model.”
So marrying a model in your mind is an indication of success? That answers quite a few questions actually.
“I said “most.” I don’t know all the family holdings but I know that Hilton, Hyatt and Marriott don’t actually own most of their hotels. They license out the name/brands. Just like McDonald’s.
I have no idea what JB himself owns. He’s just an heir to the trust. Probably has NO control over anything going on with those businesses.
Unlike the current President whose own children are actually running the entire operation.
So why the double standard? Mar-a-lago should be used to house the Florida homeless like many cities are doing with its hotel rooms“
You’re a pro at trying to move the goal posts
His Sister is in charge of the hotels the family still directly owns. And kudos for the “he’s just an heir” LOFL.
You are such a NPC
“If they can’t get even a coffee shop to go in next to where thousands of tourists are hanging out for 6 months each year”
Huh? Who is hanging out on the north side of the river there?
Also, if they were to lease out for a coffee shop, at seasonal coffee shop rent, then they couldn’t maintain the fiction of the value of the retail space, which would (likely) cause a default under the DB mortgage loan.
It ain’t even close to as simple as you suggest, even apart from the fact that almost no one hangs out ‘next to’ that retail space. Hell, you can’t even walk around the Wrigley Building on the water side. It’s all but inaccessible to the average tourist.
A smart idea would have been donating (or trying to) a portion of it to the Chicago Architecture Foundation, and making it so the tours launch from there. Would have activated hat piece of the waterfront. But that would have been fraught, and just isn’t his style anyway.
“He has FULL REIGN on that building”
WTF? What’s your native language, Hof? It ain’t English.
By the way, no one here has ever “criticized” the actual building.
I’ve always thought they did a very good job with it. No one here has ever called it ugly or an eyesore.
I actually like the building. From my Lakeview rooftop, the way the sun hits it at sunset in mid-to-late summer is spectacular. It looks like it’s still in the sun when all the other buildings have their lights on. By late Aug, some nights the building looks like it’s on fire. So awesome.
I’ve taken some (v bad) pictures with my crappy iPhone. Maybe getting a good picture (with a decent camera) will be one of my summer stay-at-home goals.
(The TRUMP letters on the side look dumb and the font is all wrong for the style of the building, but I can’t see that from 4 miles north!)
“… anyone today who criticizes Trump Tower Chicago is actually hating Daley and Adrian Smith. People have so much hate for Trump they lose rationality over it….”
No, rationality generally rules in real estate despite hd/hh’s many lies both big & small!
Conrad Black & David Radler, controlling execs of Hollinger Int’l (owner of Sun Times) knew DT from their respective memberships in ‘Thieves R Us” (both served fed’l prison time re fraud – ie misappropriating $400 mil from Hollinger (97% of its profits!) over 7 yrs, done while DT was likewise looting casino owning corporations he controlled). They pitched DT ‘their’ JV opportunity site at Wabash & Chgo River. The malignant narcissist DT convinced himself & his lender(s) he alone could remedy the fatal flaw in this building’s location re renting premium retail space – it’s not located on (nor is its retail space visible from) on Michigan Ave but some 700 winding feet west of Michigan on Wabash. Predictably in a rational world, no premier retail tenant has shown any interest in renting on Wabash Ave.
In 2019 DT fully pardoned Conrad Black for his crimes (after he wrote a fawning DT biography) . Earlier Radler (who pled guilty & testified agst Black) sued Trump for cancelling Radler’s discount deals on condos at Trump Tower. Was Radler surprised to learn there’s no honor among thieves?
Just published my March update. I’m sure IAR will talk about the tiny increase in closings over last year but the real story is that contract activity fell off a cliff: http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2020/04/chicago-real-estate-market-update-march-contracts-fell-off-a-cliff/
“Thousands are going to be dead. Including in the rural areas. Millions more may still be out of work or will be struggling financially. You think they’re going to vote for the guy who screwed it all up?
Basically, the worst president in American history?
Um…no.
There was already a blue wave coming. Now it will be a tsunami.”
Nonsense.
Explain Italy: 17,127 deaths
Explain France: 10,328 deaths
Explain Spain: 13,912 deaths
Explain US: 11,006 deaths
ALL TRUMP’S FAULT WORST PRESIDENT EVER!!!!
“Media Must Blame Faulty Coronavirus Projections, or Admit Trump Saved Millions of People”
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/07/clay-travis-media-must-blame-faulty-coronavirus-projections-admit-trump-saved-millions-people/
Which is it Sabrina?
So
Clay Travis?
Next thing, Breitbart will be citing to DanHof’s comments here.
“We don’t even have to be Dr. Fauqi to know that, hey, maybe the US should start preparing…just in case.
The Administration’s response comes from the top down. Our “top” is an ignorant, incompetent con-man. This is the price we’re paying.”
Obviously you’re a pink hat wearing hater, but in the press conferences, the news media asked these questions of Fauci and Brix, why weren’t you preparing earlier?
Their response was “we were preparing”. Trump shut down China travel, among other things. Fauci himself said it would be unreasonable to impose draconian shelter-in-place measures when there were no cases spreading in the community.
Meanwhile, 3M is making 100,000,000 masks a month but only sending 35,000,000 to the US.
ALL TRUMP’S FAULT!
Fauci has even said that EVERYONE THAT NEEDS A VENTILATOR HAS GOTTEN A VENTILATOR!
STop the lies! Stop the chinese propaganda! This is exactly what the Chinese want you! They are using your own TDS to make you weaker.
Leave the dark side, come into the light. You live in the dark, full of lies, half-truths, irrational conspiracy theories. Come into the light, we are good people over here.
https://gen.medium.com/ive-been-a-democrat-for-20-years-here-s-what-i-experienced-at-trump-s-rally-in-new-hampshire-c69ddaaf6d07
“After Attending a Trump Rally, I Realized Democrats Are Not Ready For 2020 – I’ve been a Democrat for 20 years. But this experience made me realize how out-of-touch my party is with the country at large.”
Clay Travis:
“Richard Clay Travis is an American sports journalist, writer, television analyst, and the morning radio show host for nationwide Fox Sports Radio from 6-9 a.m. ET and appears on FS1’s daily sports gambling show Lock It In.”
So, you don’t like sports radio hosts?
Trump shut down China travel, among other things.
HE DID NOT SHUT DOWN TRAVEL TO CHINA!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wake the fuck up.
He shut down CHINESE travel. He allowed Americans, Indians, Vietnamese, Thai, Japanese, Mexican, Europeans and anyone else over in China to get on a plane and fly right into O’Hare.
Over 400,000 people did just that AFTER he “shut it down.” Because he NEVER did.
What a joke.
Stop the lies HD. STOP IT!!!!!
Another thing HD, your misogyny is so open these days.
How does your wife handle it? Do you have daughters? They will pick up on it, for sure. So sad. And you’ll pass it on to your sons to treat women like shit.
Because saying I’m wearing a “pink hat” is just that.
When did women wear a pink hat?
To the women’s march.
I might add that no President has ever been re-elected when there have been mass protests of that size. And there won’t be this time.
There was a blue wave in 2018. It will be huge in 2020. The Senate is going to be lost along with the White House because of misogynists like yourself. Women WILL turn out. And we WILL turn the election just as we already just did in the western suburbs to elect Marie Newman.
“Which is it Sabrina?”
Um…we are several weeks behind the other countries listed.
The election is already over.
Gary, that’s some super interesting data.
We knew it would fall off a cliff though. Still, shocking to see the numbers.
And it’s clear almost no one is listing their properties. We saw some in late March probably because those pictures/listing were ready to go before the shut down hit.
But now?
Everyone else is on hold. There is a small trickle coming on and that’s it.
Some states/cities have now banned in-person real estate visits so that puts a damper on things too.
It will stay low until the shut down is over and then probably slowly come back. But people still have to move, especially if there are schools involved.
But how big will the bounce back be? Will the inventory just surge on in, say, June, and we will see a huge 100%+ gain in inventory?
I realize a lot will depend on the job market, the stock market and other things.
“I actually like the building. From my Lakeview rooftop, the way the sun hits it at sunset in mid-to-late summer is spectacular. It looks like it’s still in the sun when all the other buildings have their lights on. By late Aug, some nights the building looks like it’s on fire. So awesome.”
Agreed Madeline.
I’ve never heard anyone criticize it. It turned out well. I’m still not sure of the Vista. It doesn’t have much of a presence because it’s more narrow but you can see it from far away.
“Huh? Who is hanging out on the north side of the river there?”
Everyone taking the water taxi or the Wendella Boat Tour (only one big Wendella though, as the other one is on the Wrigley Side of the building which has a separate staircase.)
Water taxi is so popular now they can’t fit everyone on the boat in the summer and you have to wait. They also just added another boat to the fleet that just launched this spring, although it’s now on hold due to the virus.
“And kudos for the “he’s just an heir” LOFL.”
Actually, it’s not really that simple.
It’s a complex group of trusts depending on your relatives.
“Um…we are several weeks behind the other countries listed.”
Correct, death# follows the infected# by a week or two. Ventilators just delay death sentence, but have not rescued many lives, especially elderly ones. It’s not saving many lives in US neither.
In 4 weeks, my guess would be as follows.
US 100,000 deaths
Italy 25,000 deaths
Spain 30,000 deaths
France 30,000 deaths
Germany 20,000 deaths
UK 25,000 deaths
IL would likely hit 3,000 to say the least.
Actually, it’s not really that simple.
It’s a complex group of trusts depending on your relatives
Actually it is. Daddy set up the trusts to avoid paying taxes (is that a good thing or a bad thing?)
All the kids accomplished is winning the lucky sperm pool and being born on 3rd base while acting like they hit a triple.
No wonder you love them so
The model they keep referencing in the press conferences is now projecting 82K US deaths. It has been over projecting pretty consistently: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
“Because saying I’m wearing a “pink hat” is just that.
When did women wear a pink hat?
To the women’s march.”
Did I miss your commendation of Biden for sexually assaulting a woman?
#believeher (unless the molester is a dem, then she’s just some Trollop, who was asking for it)
Sabrina: Misogynist because I said pink hat. My wife has even more derogatory terms for those people who wore them. It has nothing to do with misogyny. It has everything to do with screaming at the sky because they refuse to accept the results of an election.
Gary: The model is updated frequently to represent reality. And the reality is that just a mere two weeks ago the modelers were off by factors of 10 or more. Modeling has proven to be one of the biggest scientific failures of our lifetime. 500 years from now they will still be teaching students lessons from this catastrophe caused by the utter failure of epidemiologists. Their credibility now is right up there with cold fusion and electric sky fringe theorists.
“But people still have to move, especially if there are schools involved. ”
oh there will be a lot of people moving… not voluntarily though
I wonder what your thoughts are on people who wear red hats sabrina?
I wonder what your thoughts are on people who wear red hats sabrina?
I’m going to go with Satan
“So marrying a model in your mind is an indication of success?”
Stop being such a nag, Gary you sound like Sabrina. Did you wear a pink hat in solidarity with the post-menopausal nags> I shudder to see the malign influence these women have on young girls, it’s sinister and adolescent abuse.
“Another thing HD, your misogyny is so open these days. How does your wife handle it? Do you have daughters? They will pick up on it, for sure. So sad. And you’ll pass it on to your sons to treat women like shit. Because saying I’m wearing a “pink hat” is just that.”
OMG!!!! Calm down. Not all women are like you Sabrina. You would look fitting in a scold’s bridle. That’s the only way a man could handle you. 🙂
“Conrad Black & David Radler, controlling execs of Hollinger Int’l (owner of Sun Times) knew DT from their respective memberships in ‘Thieves R Us” (both served fed’l prison time re fraud”
southbound: You’re actually on to something here, but you’re skirting with anti-Semitism. These are not the only Jewish crooks that always seem to be circling Trump’s orbit. I often why Trump let’s these Jews near him, they always bring him trouble. Ivanka’s crooken Jewish father-in-law also served time in prison.
Then there’s the Russian and Ukranian Jews that have brought Trump nothing but trouble. Remember the Trump Tower Moscow that everyone went hysterical over? 1) It was a “licensing” deal where Trump would put in his brand, not equity (Sabrina APPROVES of these structures, “so smart”), and 2) The “russian” sponsors of the deal were Russian Jews.
Then there’s those jews from Ukraine in the center of the “impeachment” BS causing trouble: Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman. Trump hires Rod Rosenthal and the jew backstabs him. The list never ends.
I agree southbound, it’s very odd why Trump associates with such ilk. Nonetheless, while these crooks did their swindling, Trump never actually participated in their schemes. Oh, I forgot Michael Cohen, the Trump back-stabbing lawyer, he’s in jail too.
Too much, too soon
Trump’s a Roy Cohn acolyte.
Roy Cohn was almost everything that Hof rails against.
I don’t see how judism has anything to do with anything we’re talking about here, from pink hats, to modeling, to chicago and how all of this is involved in chicago real estate, because everything except for judism is involved in chicago real estate. Hof’s BS is really grating. save your downvotes for that troll.
“Modeling has proven to be one of the biggest scientific failures of our lifetime. 500 years from now they will still be teaching students lessons from this catastrophe caused by the utter failure of epidemiologists.”
So what’s the alternative basis for decision making? Pull a number out of the air and declare yourself an expert? “Nobody knows more about epidemiology than me”?
BTW, that model has been updated again and now it’s at 60K.
“that model has been updated again and now it’s at 60K.”
It appears to be using some bad inputs, tho, as it still has the 4/7 Illinois death total at 1, when it was actually 73.
“It appears to be using some bad inputs, tho, as it still has the 4/7 Illinois death total at 1, when it was actually 73.”
Right now I have the IL death toll at 462
“So what’s the alternative basis for decision making? Pull a number out of the air and declare yourself an expert? “Nobody knows more about epidemiology than me”? ”
Realistically Gary, you or I could pull a number out of our a***s, and statistically, have a better chance of beating the models’ projections. All we need is a few inputs and an excel spreadsheet. Epidemiologists have a long, long way to go. Right now they’re adjusting their figures every day to meet reality, which is something anyone with a high school education could do. All of their training and schooling and education is supposed to predict the magnitude beforehand, and, they were all off by magnitudes so great that it make astrologists look good.
Or the models were right and Trump and his administration saved Millions upon Millions of lives.
In this case, I think the former is a lot closer to be correct than the latter.
“It appears to be using some bad inputs, tho, as it still has the 4/7 Illinois death total at 1, when it was actually 73.”
It’s more than just the bad inputs, its the model themselves. they’re just opinions. Even Dr Brix at the press conference once said that all the modelers have their own opinions on how to model things but that they were looking for the best models to input the best data.
At this point, they need to change the terms they use. No longer call them ‘models’ because that name has zero credibility. They’d be better off calling their models ‘algorithms’ instead. This way they can say “the algorithm” is correct but it’s reality’s fault, not the algorithm’s fault, why the predictions were so far off. Algorithms have an air of infallibility to them; whereas models are just, well, like Melania.
“At this point, they need to change the terms they use. No longer call them ‘models’”
Trump would fire them bc he likes to talk about models.
”Epidemiologists have a long, long way to go.”
I agree with this point. Epidemiologists should have shouted out in January about the risk of the spread and created so called models predicting the spread to the rest of the world.
I’m pretty sure my guestimate would beat many models. I’m also guestimating that China would be hit by a second or third surge of infection in a few months.
I can’t tell if you’re joking or not. Of course there were people sounding the alarm back in January. If Peter Navarro was warning about it in late January…Also, the WHO issued a national capacities review tool on January 9/10: https://www.who.int/publications-detail/national-capacities-review-tool-for-a-novelcoronavirus You don’t do that unless you expect it to spread.
“It appears to be using some bad inputs, tho, as it still has the 4/7 Illinois death total at 1, when it was actually 73.”
And so they updated, still with 1 for 4/7 (s.b. 73), 0 for 4/9 (s.b. 66), and 154 for 4/8 (s.b. 82).
Which has to make a hash of their modeling. Currently projecting 36 today, when I’d say it is all but certain to be between 60 and 90.
I wonder how many other states they have bad data for? Not going through and checking.
Captain Trump of the RMS Titanic:
There isn’t any iceberg.
There was an iceberg but it’s in a totally different ocean.
The iceberg is in this ocean but it will melt very soon.
There is an iceberg but we didn’t hit the iceberg.
We hit the iceberg, but the damage will be repaired very shortly.
The iceberg is a Chinese iceberg.
We are taking on water but every passenger who wants a lifeboat can get a lifeboat, and they are beautiful lifeboats. Look, passengers need to ask nicely for the lifeboats if they want them.
We don’t have any lifeboats, we’re not lifeboat distributors.
Passengers should have planned for icebergs and brought their own lifeboats.
I really don’t think we need that many lifeboats.
We have lifeboats and they’re supposed to be our lifeboats, not the passengers’ lifeboats.
The lifeboats were left on shore by the last captain of this ship.
Nobody could have foreseen the iceberg.
Johnc: very stupid summary of Trump’s response; which fails to explain, do you honestly believe that if Trump had done anything different, fewer people would have died?
Every person in the country who needed a ventilator, got a ventilator. Every person who needed a bed, got a bed. Every person who needed medical treatment, has gotten treatment. If you read further into the states, this disease is affecting minority communities and medicaid recipients the hardest – and the federal government is footing the bill for all of this.
Trump purposely destroyed the economy – quite literally the strongest and best argument he had for reelection – and he’s flushed it down the toilet to save lives. He did exactly what your ilk wanted, “let the experts handle it,” which he’s done, and he’s flushing it all down the tubes, angering republicans in the process who think this is all overkill, just to save lives. Which according to the models of a few weeks ago expecting upwards of 2.2 million US deaths, Trump has literally saved millions and millions of lives.
Our death rate per millions is lower than most western countries, and now other countries are the world that are experiencing similar or higher death rates are getting angry at China for lying about their figures. Iran, who has only China and north korea as friends, is now lashing out at China, because they allowed the disease to ravage their country. Ecuador is being slammed, with bodies literally lying in the streets, no one will even pick them. Japan is so angry at China, their stimulus bill is actually picking up the tab to close down their china plants and forcing them to bring manufacturing back to the country.
That’s because you think you’re witty, and funny, making fun of trump, but the reality is that you’re just to ignorant to realize how ignorant you really are.
Gary, the WHO has been a joke. Back on January 14th, they were spreading Chinese propaganda that said:
“Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China”
https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152
Think about that for a second, January 14, 2020 – THIS DISEASE IS PROBABLY NOT COMMUNICABLE!
But wait, THIS IS TRUMP’S FAULT!
https://www.axios.com/timeline-the-early-days-of-chinas-coronavirus-outbreak-and-cover-up-ee65211a-afb6-4641-97b8-353718a5faab.html
“Timeline: The early days of China’s coronavirus outbreak and cover-up”
Axios has compiled a timeline of the earliest weeks of the coronavirus outbreak in China, highlighting when the cover-up started and ended — and showing how, during that time, the virus already started spreading around the world, including to the United States.
Why it matters: A study published in March indicated that if Chinese authorities had acted three weeks earlier than they did, the number of coronavirus cases could have been reduced by 95% and its geographic spread limited.
This timeline, compiled from information reported by the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, the South China Morning Post and other sources, shows that China’s cover-up and the delay in serious measures to contain the virus lasted about three weeks.”
ALL TRUMP’S FAULT!!!
“A woman from Chicago who traveled to Wuhan, China, at the end of December and returned on Jan 13 represents the second travel-related case of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection diagnosed in the United States, according to officials from the Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).”
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/new-ncov-case-chicago-us-says-no-travel-wuhan
“The first case of a new and potentially deadly virus circulating in China has been confirmed in Chicago, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The patient, a Chicago woman in her 60s, returned to the United States on Jan. 13 from Wuhan, China, where an outbreak of respiratory illness called the novel coronavirus has been ongoing since December 2019, according to the CDC.
Authorities said the patient remains hospitalized but is in stable condition and doing well. She didn’t have symptoms at the time of travel, according to health officials, who declined to say what airline she flew on.
*****“This is a single travel-associated case, not a local emergency,” said Dr. Allison Arwady, commissioner of the Chicago Department of Public Health.”*****
Really Allison? This quote didn’t age well – a single travel related case, no local emergency?
https://news.wttw.com/2020/01/24/1st-case-coronavirus-confirmed-chicago
“Gov. JB Pritzker assured the public of minimal risks resulting from a new coronavirus but urged people to be cautious after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed Friday the first case of the illness in Illinois and the second in the U.S.
A Chicago woman who returned from China this month is currently hospitalized and isolated, but doing well, according to the director of the Illinois Department of Public Health, Ngozi Ezike. She added that CDC officials landed in Chicago this morning, and Pritzker said the CDC, IDPH and local agencies are closely monitoring the situation.
“Illinois has a strong public health system that has been proactively preparing for this situation,” Pritzker said. He advised people to take the same precautions as one would with the flu, such as washing your hands and calling ahead of a doctor’s visit if experiencing symptoms.
The woman returned to Illinois Jan. 13 but did not have symptoms while traveling or until days after.
Ezike said the IDPH is working with the hospital to identify if any other people came into contact with the woman or have similar symptoms.
“There are more questions than answers,” Ezike said. “We are learning more information hour to hour and day to day, and our guidance will continue to be informed by the information that we receive. I promise we will keep the public informed as we work diligently to keep the people of Illinois safe.””
**** This quote didn’t age well either, JB said he has been ‘proactively preparing for this situation’, even though we had the 2nd case of coronavirus in the country, and it’s spread like wildfire throughout the state. Well, as we sit here today, it seems like he wasn’t prepared at all, but I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt, because we aren’t New York, or Italy or Spain…
https://www.sj-r.com/news/20200124/pritzker-idph-director-respond-to-new-coronavirus-reported-in-illinois
*** This one is my best fav of all time:
https://nypost.com/2020/04/04/nyc-pols-urge-de-blasio-to-oust-health-commissioner-over-coronavirus-response/
“As the global outbreak heated up in January, (New York Health Commissioner Oxiris) Barbot repeatedly assured New Yorkers their risk was “low,” and to resume normal activities with only basic precautions such as washing hands.
On Feb. 2, with the city’s first suspected coronavirus case under investigation and China’s death toll skyrocketing, Barbot touted upcoming Chinese New Year events where crowds gather shoulder-to-shoulder in city streets.
“As we gear up to celebrate the #LunarNewYear in NYC, I want to assure New Yorkers that there is no reason for anyone to change their holiday plans, avoid the subway, or certain parts of the city because of #coronavirus,” she tweeted. Five days later, she declared the city had little to worry about. “We’re telling New Yorkers, go about your lives, take the subway, go out, enjoy life,” she said.
** I have inside knowledge that Trump was whispering sweet nothings into her ear, telling her to tweet about the parade. It’s always trump’s fault…
Really seems like someone is auditioning for a spot in the Trump campaign/second-term administration.
“Currently projecting 36 today, when I’d say it is all but certain to be between 60 and 90.”
Actual number = 68. The crazy thing is that their range for today–because of the data entry error, and inadequate proofing, was a range from 0-172. With the bad data, the actual predicted range *probably* had 2 or 3 of the dead coming back to life.
So (date: IHME number/projection, Actual):
4/7: 1, 73
4/8: 154, 82
4/9: 0, 66
4/10: 36 (proj-will prob fill in with 134), 68
4/11: 38 (proj), likely actual number b/t 50 and 75
4/12: 35 (proj), likely actual number b/t 50 and 75
HD’s Trump Infatuation Syndrome is really flaring up.
HD = Douche.
Just saying…
“HD = Douche.
Just saying…”
Tough internet stud here throws around insults.
https://m.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/exclusive-jpmorgan-chase-to-raise-mortgage-borrowing-standards-as-economic-outlook-darkens-2137836
20% down 700+ credit score only for JPM going forward… yikes
“Tough internet stud here throws around insults.”
Hey Home Dipshit, anytime you want to meet me at the corner of Clark and Wisconsin and insult an actual CPS parent IRL, let me know! Not every cribchatter reader is an out of touch suburban 65 year old 😉
“20% down 700+ credit score only for JPM going forward… yikes”
I heard this. Wasn’t sure it was true, but looks like it is. Also heard that Wells Fargo is requiring $250,000 in cash in their bank to issue jumbos.
But the jumbo market crashed a couple of weeks ago. Maybe it hasn’t come back yet.
If you really have to have 20% down now to buy, that basically means a housing crash on both coasts.
We debated what a 20% down would do after 2009, remember? But it never came to pass. They still gave out loans on 10% and even 5% down, as long as you had the good credit score.
But 20% down on even a $500,000 property is $100,000. Where are Millennials or GenZ going to come up with $100,000? They aren’t. It’s going to crush the first time home buyer market.
Why not just ask him to meet you at the Manhole?
“Johnc: very stupid summary of Trump’s response; which fails to explain, do you honestly believe that if Trump had done anything different, fewer people would have died?”
Yes. Dr. Fauci said as much on television this morning in interviews. More lives were lost because the Trump Administration waited 70 days to do anything. They didn’t even put in any orders for PPE until mid-March.
Their incompetence has killed doctors and nurses, the real heroes.
And the sad thing, is that the incompetence has continued. It’s not like they even course corrected in mid-March. Here we are in mid-April and we still don’t have the testing we need to re-open the economy, there still isn’t enough PPE, and the White House has no plan on how to re-open the economy.
“I heard this. Wasn’t sure it was true, but looks like it is. Also heard that Wells Fargo is requiring $250,000 in cash in their bank to issue jumbos.
But the jumbo market crashed a couple of weeks ago. Maybe it hasn’t come back yet.
If you really have to have 20% down now to buy, that basically means a housing crash on both coasts.
But 20% down on even a $500,000 property is $100,000. Where are Millennials or GenZ going to come up with $100,000? They aren’t. It’s going to crush the first time home buyer market.”
You are dense. Let the costal fucks choke on a bag of dicks
My question to you is the market still HAWT ™
“Their incompetence has killed doctors and nurses, the real heroes.”
China lied, people died
“My question to you is the market still HAWT ™”
Of course it is. But we won’t know how hot until the shelter-in-place is listed and everyone who was going to list in March and April starts listing. And a lot of people who don’t have financing, might not be able to get it with these new restrictions. Some will already have pre-approval though.
Which means the rental market may get even tighter.
The for sale market doesn’t cool off until inventory rises. That will take a couple of months to pan out, if it does.
So you’re buying properties at this point?
If it’s HAWT ™, you should leveraging your primary residence to buy properties for rent, correct?
Put your money where your mouth is
The market won’t be hot for long. Even doctors, lawyers, engineers, and consultants are taking huge paycuts right now. The last thing people will want to buy is a new house.
I took a 50% paycut on my salary, effective tomorrow.
Yes, I can pay my mortgage, health insurance, life insurance, car payments etc. But i’m not saving anything.
Can’t imagine what dentists, dermatologists, small retail shops and restaurants etc are going through.
I see the million plus properties taking a real hit for at least a year or more.
“I see the million plus properties taking a real hit for at least a year or more.”
Especially if the mortgage market remains, basically, shut.
Could be a big reckoning coming in the overheated housing market, nationwide. Even with low rates.
But this also isn’t 2009. Housing should help the economy come out of this recession which it couldn’t do the last time around as it was the center of the bubble.
By the way- difficult times for dentists, dermatologists, hair stylists, anyone in leisure and hospitality. No idea how quickly it will all come back.
If you missed your botox appointment during the 2-month shutdown, will you rush out to get it again once it re-opens?
Same with the dentist. All those lost appointments, will eventually have to come in. Probably lose 2 months worth of revenue though as it just pushes everything back.
The luxury housing market is really dependent on the stock market. If it keeps roaring back, so will confidence. If it sinks the rest of the year, then so will housing.
“So you’re buying properties at this point?”
No. I’m buying stocks.
“I took a 50% paycut on my salary, effective tomorrow.”
Sorry to hear this Riz. You are not alone.
For how long? Just until the re-open? 4 months? 6 months?
Until the end of the year?
“Why not just ask him to meet you at the Manhole?”
Calling someone gay as a burn has been over for at least 25 years… are you OK, Boomer?
“But 20% down on even a $500,000 property is $100,000. Where are Millennials or GenZ going to come up with $100,000? They aren’t. It’s going to crush the first time home buyer market.”
——————————–
Sabrina, buying a half-million dollar house means you’re not a first time home buyer. For that you’re down to $120k – maybe $200k, for the vast majority of people.
You remind me of Nelson Rockefeller back in the 1960s. He would hold press conferences (governor of New York, remember?) and say things like: “Take your average guy earning $100,000 a year….”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-jp-morgan-mortgages-credit-exclusive/exclusive-jpmorgan-chase-to-raise-mortgage-borrowing-standards-as-economic-outlook-darkens-idUSKCN21T0VU
This should help continue the HAWT ™ market, right Sabrina?
“Sabrina, buying a half-million dollar house means you’re not a first time home buyer. For that you’re down to $120k – maybe $200k, for the vast majority of people.
You remind me of Nelson Rockefeller back in the 1960s. He would hold press conferences (governor of New York, remember?) and say things like: “Take your average guy earning $100,000 a year….””
According to Sabrina, Chicago is the land of creating endless $150-250k jobs ( and being home to the HAWT(tm) Market Theory). I’m sure she “knows” someone that got a job in that salary range, therefore all jobs in Chicago pay that well.
“therefore all jobs in Chicago pay that well”
Just one in five of them Johnny. Way less than a third of the housing in metro Chicago is expensive.
The Case Shiller “high tier” for Chicago starts at $315k–lower than Atlanta, Phoenix, Vegas. Slightly higher than Tampa ($294k), and well ahead of Cleveland ($185k) out of the 17 metros they track by tier.
Also, the “high tier” index is below 1992 prices, in real dollars.
“Just one in five of them Johnny. Way less than a third of the housing in metro Chicago is expensive.
The Case Shiller “high tier” for Chicago starts at $315k–lower than Atlanta, Phoenix, Vegas. Slightly higher than Tampa ($294k), and well ahead of Cleveland ($185k) out of the 17 metros they track by tier.
Also, the “high tier” index is below 1992 prices, in real dollars.”
———————————–
Beginners still ain’t buying half-million dollar house to start with. Beginners are buying $120k to maybe $200k houses.
“The Case Shiller “high tier” for Chicago starts at $315k–lower than Atlanta, Phoenix, Vegas. Slightly higher than Tampa ($294k), and well ahead of Cleveland ($185k) out of the 17 metros they track by tier.
Also, the “high tier” index is below 1992 prices, in real dollars.”
What % of properties on the Ol’ Chatter are <$315k – Excluding Co-Op's and Vintage buildings w/ extremely high HOA's?
I have zero doubt there is all kinds of inexpensive properties in Chicago Metro, but unless I'm missing your point it has nothing to do with Sabrinas HAWT market theory ™. Its all about these great jobs Amazon, Groupon, Boeing, etc are bringing to Chicago. If you're not one of these people, you don't really count in her eyes.
The Chicago market to upgrade is going to be even more seriously curtailed if the JPM requirements go into effect across the board. Most housing hasn't appreciated enough in the last 5 years to allow those that bought a $400k 2BR condo in Andersonville to have enough equity to put down 20% on a $800k 3Br LS Shitbox
Thereby refuting Sabrina's HAWT Market Theory ™
“If you really have to have 20% down now to buy, that basically means a housing crash on both coasts.”
Or pretty much anywhere, actually. This is good news though. We’re all about to learn what the true cost of housing is. No longer will the judicious and prudent buyer with a substantial down payment good credit be forced to compete against the prodigal and profligate bozos with a 3% down payment and poor credit. Some of the more frugal millennials buyers, who’ve been sitting on the sidelines, may not be able to finally buy the homes of their dreams, for a song.
These are truly glorious times as our Dear Leaders have finally created a real life parable of the ant and the grasshopper, where those of us with the foresight to prepare for bad times are thriving, and those who’ve spent with reckless abandon will go bankrupt.
* * * * * * * * * * *
The Ants & the Grasshopper
One bright day in late autumn a family of Ants were bustling about in the warm sunshine, drying out the grain they had stored up during the summer, when a starving Grasshopper, his fiddle under his arm, came up and humbly begged for a bite to eat.
“What!” cried the Ants in surprise, “haven’t you stored anything away for the winter? What in the world were you doing all last summer?”
“I didn’t have time to store up any food,” whined the Grasshopper; “I was so busy making music that before I knew it the summer was gone.”
The Ants shrugged their shoulders in disgust.
“Making music, were you?” they cried. “Very well; now dance!” And they turned their backs on the Grasshopper and went on with their work.
Moral of the story:
“There’s a time for work and a time for play.”
“Frank on April 13th, 2020 at 8:41 am
“Why not just ask him to meet you at the Manhole?”
Calling someone gay as a burn has been over for at least 25 years… are you OK, Boomer?”
You must not browse the internet often, or leave your house much, or listen to kids of all races, ethnicities and creeds, banter insults at each other.
It’s definitely not PC, or appropriate to call someone gay as a burn in polite company, and I don’t do it, but to say that it’s ‘over’ as a burn is a straight up falsehood, or shows your ignorance, because the burn is more popular than ever these days.
And in fact, the younger someone is, the more likely they are to become ‘uncomfortable’ with the LGBTQ+ lifestyle, after having it shoved in their faces, figuratively, for their entire life.
https://time.com/5613276/glaad-acceptance-index-lgbtq-survey/
Younger kids are also really uncomfortable with religion too, so I guess that makes them mostly homophobic anti-religious bigots.
“Sorry to hear this Riz. You are not alone.
For how long? Just until the re-open? 4 months? 6 months?
Until the end of the year?”
Thanks for the concern.
For at least a few months – likely longer. I’m in a procedure and imaging based specialty, and around 75% of my patients are outpatients. Those are all cancelled, so essentially we 75% of my billing is gone. I have some income coming in from other revenue streams and the ’emergent’ cases and imaging I do, a little bit of telemedicine is in the mix, so that helps.
I anticipate that even when all this is over, the first thing a person is going to want to do is maybe start to save something, take a vacation, have some nice dinner dates – not go get a nonurgent medical procedure. I’m hoping my volume gets back to normal by summer 2021, but who knows.
i won’t complain, because even at half my income, i’m in a much better scenario than so many others out of work. I’ve never had this much time with my family so i’m trying to just enjoy that aspect of all this.
“According to Sabrina, Chicago is the land of creating endless $150-250k jobs ( and being home to the HAWT(tm) Market Theory). I’m sure she “knows” someone that got a job in that salary range, therefore all jobs in Chicago pay that well.”
Not this bullshit again about how not everyone is rich.
JohnnyU you’re fairly new here. For the last 10 years we’ve been chattering about the $100,000 and up wage earners. How many of them are there? Who is affording all those thousands of new $2,000 and up apartments going up downtown? What is “middle class” in Chicago anymore? (it’s not Portage Park, that’s for sure.)
When the reality is, that Chicago ranks at the top of the most educated larger cities in America. And census figures show that the city has gained more workers earning over $100,000 over the last 10 years even while losing some middle class and lower middle class. The city has gotten much “richer.”
People here have posted links to the census figures, including charts and graphs. You can find them if you search the site. Perhaps some of you will post them again for JohnnyU’s benefit.
This site has featured properties from all parts of the city. It mostly focuses on the GreenZone because those are the neighborhoods that people like chattering about. But I try and cover up-and-coming areas where new buyers are moving.
Hopefully, by this summer, the shelter-in-place will be over and we’ll get an explosion of new inventory and I’ll be able to get some good pictures in a bunch of neighborhoods.
I can’t wait to see what is going to come on the market because most of the properties right now are pretty boring.
“This should help continue the HAWT ™ market, right Sabrina?”
This was already posted several days ago JohnnyU. What did you think we were talking about?
Duh.
By the way, I talked to a mortgage broker about this and he said it was a result of the shutdown and that once the shutdown was lifted, the restrictions would ease.
We shall see.
“Sabrina, buying a half-million dollar house means you’re not a first time home buyer.”
That’s completely wrong. Who do you think is buying that $425,000 2/2 in Chicago? Or the $500,000 loft in West Loop? Many of those are first time home buyers. Husband/wife make $250,000 combined. Can easily afford that. Both are engineers etc.
Also, on both coasts, that $500,000 is definitely first time home buyer territory. Even for school teachers (sadly.)
Interesting read here on the effects of COVID 19 on the real estate market. My opinion is there is no upside. Downside risks include:
– future uncertainty
– unemployment
– increase in local taxes
– loss of wealth
– increased financing metrics
– fear of urban areas
I think we see a quick burst of activity when the smoke begins to clear, but after we’re heading down 10-20% in the next few years.
Hope I’m wrong…
“By the way, I talked to a mortgage broker about this and he said it was a result of the shutdown and that once the shutdown was lifted, the restrictions would ease.“
Well if a mortgage broker said it, it has to be true
“Also, on both coasts, that $500,000 is definitely first time home buyer territory. Even for school teachers (sadly.)”
——————————
This isn’t the East or West coast, Sabrina, and in Chicago, half a mil isn’t a starter home. What you want to characterize as beginner homes and beginner home buyers depends on ignoring probably 90 percent of first time home buyer sales.
You’re whistling past the graveyard, again.
5 months ago this was the flu. Now, it’s clearly not the flu, and whatever strains there were have mutated and become more virulent. China didn’t have stories of long term care facilities being decimated (I know due to cultural practices they have fewer of those over there to begin with but you get the idea). There’s no way this is contained, or ever will be contained, anywhere in the world, as outbreaks keep happening over and over again, different places on the globe. We may never even get a vaccine, as HIV, herpes, and the common cold still lack vaccines, although we hopefully get a more effective treatment to lessen the mortality.
This is going to be very very bad for seniors, and the value of their estates as their children try to sell the housing, and older boomers with big houses that aren’t going to make it through this. Expect home construction and trades – especially among younger, healthier folk, to start booming in the near future as buyers who get deals need massive amounts of work done to their new homes purchased as estate sales….new bathrooms, kitchens, landscaping, etc. Time to bring that 1950’s suburban ranch in to the 21st century….
https://news.trust.org/item/20200413223657-qtb8i
“42 dead in coronavirus outbreak at Virginia nursing home, more expected….At least 127 elderly people out of the 163 residents of the Canterbury Rehabilitation & Healthcare Center in Henrico County have tested positive for the new coronavirus in recent weeks, said its medical director Dr. James Wright. News reports say the latest two people died in the last three days.
“It’s been tough,” Wright, 56, said in an interview with Reuters. “We were surprised by how quickly this went through,” he said.”
““By the way, I talked to a mortgage broker about this and he said it was a result of the shutdown and that once the shutdown was lifted, the restrictions would ease.“
Well if a mortgage broker said it, it has to be true”
I can’t find the link for the life of me, and I wish I could, but some article I read earlier this year interviewed a mortgage broker. He said that the mortgage market was so hot in early 2020, that any mortgage broker who didn’t earn a million dollars was something wrong. I remember laughing at the time! I hope that guy earned his million in January and February because March turned out to be pretty slow!
““42 dead in coronavirus outbreak at Virginia nursing home, more expected….At least 127 elderly people out of the 163 residents of the Canterbury Rehabilitation & Healthcare Center in Henrico County have tested positive for the new coronavirus in recent weeks, said its medical director Dr. James Wright. News reports say the latest two people died in the last three days”
Not to be too morbid, but aren’t most people at those facilities usually like a year away from dying anyway?
according to this morningstar article
0.88 years: Average duration of nursing-home stay for men.
1.44 years: Average duration of nursing-home stay for women.
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/823957/75-must-know-statistics-about-long-term-care
yeah… it sucks, but those are the “at risk” population people are talking about and are probably on their proverbial death beds as it is, I don’t think we should shut down the economy to save these people
“5 months ago this was the flu….” says a poster who less than 30 days ago whined “There are 93 cases of Wuhan virus in IL. No one has died. Yet we must shut down the economy b/c twitter demands it.”
The article hd linked points how failings of federal gov’t (run by his Dear Leader) was killing patients: “…The situation was made even worse by a severe shortage of personal protective equipment such as medical masks and gowns, he said.”
Don’t bother repeating dt’s claim Obama admin. left those cupboards bare – just more Repub. ass covering bs. Beginning in ’10 Tea Partying R’s in congress blocked funding restocking medical stockpile:(see https://www.propublica.org/article/us-emergency-medical-stockpile-funding-unprepared-coronavirus )
Dt’s had 3.5 yrs ‘leading’ to assess ‘our’ medical stockpile (according to Kushner) & order it restocked but it’s easier to do nothing and attempt to blame consequences on others.
This week’s real estate data for Chicago is looking pretty bleak. I looked at inventory in terms of weeks of supply. Sky high. http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2020/04/coronavirus-impact-on-chicago-real-estate-market-week-5/
HD, I saw that article. Kind of douchy and a bit of an exaggeration. Feb and March were about the busiest I’ve ever seen in the business. I was working till about 1am for three weeks straight and I still couldn’t get to every deal.
The spigot got turned off but it is still fairly busy. It will probably be a good year. Some guys probably made their entire 2019 income in Feb and March.
The jumbo market imploded though and rates are higher now than they were prior to market crashing. There is a lack of liquidity in secondary market and that is hurting jumbo lending as lenders can’t sell the loans.
“There is a lack of liquidity in secondary market and that is hurting jumbo lending as lenders can’t sell the loans.”
Hence JPM announcing higher standards, right? They only want to hold prime loans?
southbound,
for the love of god, stop stalking me.
Yeah, but it is ironic as they weren’t funding crappy jumbos to begin with. So now they are going after the unicorn borrowers.
Everyone is concerned about coming defaults / LTVs more than anything. I also think there is a bit of undercover collusion at the bigger banks to make it harder to refinance the existing loan portfolios.
There is just a lot of uncertainty. Investors don’t want to buy loans that will get paid off quickly (fast falling rates) or in a rapidly changing economic environment that could affect loan quality.
sonies, you’re right, those old people don’t have long to live, but it’s not just old people that are getting wiped out, it’s fat and obese people too. here is a link to a flow chart from a study of patients at a new york hospital:
https://www.zdnet.com/article/nyu-scientists-largest-u-s-study-of-covid-19-finds-obesity-the-single-biggest-factor-in-new-york-critical-cases/
“Doctors at NYU Langone Health center conducted the largest study so far of US hospital admissions for COVID-19, focused on New York City. They found obesity, along with age, was the biggest deciding factor in hospital admissions, which may suggest the role of hyper-inflammatory reactions that can happen in those with the disease.”
There’s a lot of fat and old and old/fat people in the country, and they’re all going to get admitted to the hospital, and many will be wiped out, unfortunately. We know China lied about the severity of all of this, and it’s becoming increasingly obviously to the layman that the virus is getting more lethal as it moves around the world. Whatever strain hit Japan/South Korea/Taiwan/Hong Kong, Australia, clearly changed as it spread around Europe, and has gotten worse as it spreads around the US. It’s going to be really, really bad when it starts spreading around the third world, if its not already.
“So now they are going after the unicorn borrowers.”
Flight to quality.
“There’s a lot of fat and old and old/fat people in the country, and they’re all going to get admitted to the hospital, and many will be wiped out, ”
—————————–
So once we boomers fall off the twig the GenX/Millenials/whomever will inherit the houses they could never afford and all will be right with the world.
Get to the bad part.
““So now they are going after the unicorn borrowers.”
Flight to quality”
So according to the HAWT Market Theory ™, do Chad and Brittni get approved for their starter $500k+ 2Br starter condo in the Westloop? Does the calculus change if one of them works for Groupon?
As far as Unicorn borrowers, IMO a 700 FICO and 20% DP doesn’t seem unreasonable for a Jumbo.
“So once we boomers fall off the twig the GenX/Millenials/whomever will inherit the houses they could never afford and all will be right with the world.
Get to the bad part.”
This is the bad part, I’m unfortunately not going to inherit anything but my obese relatives’ debt!
“it’s becoming increasingly obviously to the layman that the virus is getting more lethal as it moves around the world. Whatever strain hit Japan/South Korea/Taiwan/Hong Kong, Australia, clearly changed as it spread around Europe, and has gotten worse as it spreads around the US.”
I have not heard this. I suspect what’s really going on here is that the rationalization virus is spreading fast among those that insisted all along that this was no worse than the flu.
Gary…can’t you see that it was European Socialism that metastasized the NBD virus into a real killer? And whocouldaknode that before the middle of March??
IMHE fixed their data input problem for Illinois, and then basically hit the corrected next day forecast for April 13 reported deaths–projected = 73, actual = 74.
Projected number for both today and tomorrow = 57. Projected last death = May 1. Projected total = 1,248, or about 1 in 10,000 of total population.
“Gary…can’t you see that it was European Socialism that metastasized the NBD virus into a real killer? And whocouldaknode that before the middle of March??”
———————————-
That twicky,twicky, iceberg!
“rough neighborhood!
PS It’s not just the obese Big Mommas and PopPops at risk.
Staphylococcus (Staph) is a bacterial infection that is rampant among gay men. Many are compromised and have weak immune systems from a variety of sources tied to their *ahem* activity.
folks, there is no such thing as a “perfectly healthy sodomite”, nor is there any such thing as a “perfectly healthy obese person”. These are oxymorons.”
Yeah I think I’m done with cc… If I wanted to listen to the pontifications of elderly, out-of-touch asshats who not only hate Chicago but don’t even live in Chicago, I could just go visit my in-laws in Peoria
anon(tfo):
US COVID-19 deaths “poorly predicted” by IHME model
14 April 2020
US states death rates inconsistent with IHME predictions
An international group of data scientists led by the University of Sydney’s Centre for Translational Data Science has found that over 70 percent of US states had death rates that were inconsistent with IHME predictions.
https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/04/14/us-covid-19-deaths-poorly-predicted-by-ihme-model.html
“Yeah I think I’m done with cc… If I wanted to listen to the pontifications of elderly, out-of-touch asshats who not only hate Chicago but don’t even live in Chicago, I could just go visit my in-laws in Peoria”
You have no moral superiority over those who live in smaller cities. None, and in fact, you likely have less. Just so we’re clear about this.
“I have not heard this. I suspect what’s really going on here is that the rationalization virus is spreading fast among those that insisted all along that this was no worse than the flu.”
Can you give me an example of the flu with a 1 in 3 death rate in a nursing home?
“You have no moral superiority over those who live in smaller cities. None, and in fact, you likely have less. Just so we’re clear about this.”
Why are you posting here? Genuinely curious.
“Why are you posting here? Genuinely curious.”
Right now Chicago real estate is the coronavirus. I’ve been here for years but I take long leaves of absences from posting. Since jelly belly says I can’t go to work, I’m back!!!!
“Right now Chicago real estate is the coronavirus. I’ve been here for years but I take long leaves of absences from posting. Since jelly belly says I can’t go to work, I’m back!!!!”
So… you’re the definition of a troll. This is a website for people who are interested in real estate in the city of Chicago, and you have no real interest in said topic. Why don’t you go stalk Linda Ronstadt or Ann-Margret fan pages like a good Boomer, instead?
“Projected number for [April 14] = 57.”
Actual reported number = 74.
Linda was pretty hot (see Living in the USA)
Thought you would have gone with Bette Midler/Judy Garland (NTTAWWT)
“Linda was pretty hot (see Living in the USA)
Thought you would have gone with Bette Midler/Judy Garland (NTTAWWT)”
64-carat Boomer, hi Dad!!
“Linda was pretty hot (see Living in the USA)
Thought you would have gone with Bette Midler/Judy Garland (NTTAWWT)”
Remember when you were relevant? When you were in you were in your 40s? That was 30 years ago.
“Can you give me an example of the flu with a 1 in 3 death rate in a nursing home?”
I can’t. This we agree on. I was saying that I hadn’t heard that the virus had mutated. It was this deadly from the beginning. It’s not just the flu. Never was.
“If I wanted to listen to the pontifications of elderly, out-of-touch asshats”
Lol, says the guy who lives at Clark and Wisconsin. Real Chicagoans don’t live there. Talk about the most stupid obvious place for a newcomer know-nothing idiot to live. “I need to be near the lake”! Give it 4 years and the dude will be west of Western.
“I was saying that I hadn’t heard that the virus had mutated. ”
Be skeptical of what you hear. Back in January, China told us that there was no evidence of human to human transmission. prior to one week ago, Fauci and Scarf Girl said that masks don’t help. Now they’re telling us to put bandanas over our face.
There’s at least 8 strains of the virus.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/27/scientists-track-coronavirus-strains-mutation/5080571002/
“They also say it does not appear the strains will grow more lethal as they evolve.
“The virus mutates so slowly that the virus strains are fundamentally very similar to each other,” said Charles Chiu, a professor of medicine and infectious disease at the University of California, San Francisco School of Medicine.”
Uh-huh, as it wipes out 42 out of 120 elderly residents of a nursing home. social distancing is working but its masking the lethality of this disease.
“Give it 4 years and the dude will be west of Western.”
I moved so far west and north that I’m closer to Moraine Hills State Park than I the lake.
https://www2.illinois.gov/dnr/Parks/Pages/MoraineHills.aspx
“Lol, says the guy who lives at Clark and Wisconsin. Real Chicagoans don’t live there. Talk about the most stupid obvious place for a newcomer know-nothing idiot to live. “I need to be near the lake”! Give it 4 years and the dude will be west of Western.”
Oh,helmethofer (are you a character from Hogan’s Heroes?). I’ve been here for double digit years, raised my family here… I’m as real as it gets. and fwiw it’s worth I have plenty of friends west of Western. Chicago is a great place to live, and raise a family, and it’s affordable compared to the coasts. Get a grip, bitch.
“I moved so far west and north that I’m closer to Moraine Hills State Park than I the lake.
https://www2.illinois.gov/dnr/Parks/Pages/MoraineHills.aspx”
Why don’t you do us all a favor and go troll a McHenry real estate site?
“Why don’t you do us all a favor and go troll a McHenry real estate site?”
No.
“No.”
???
“Remember when you were relevant? When you were in you were in your 40s? That was 30 years ago.”
GenX – We hate Boomers almost as much as we hate Millennials
Next time I’ll remember to bring your Participation Trophy.
Frank,
get up to speed. helmethofer is a bad, literally evil person. Look up his creepy name as two names, instead of one, and put in a ‘u’ instead of an ‘e’ in helmet. He might actually be that messed dude, that’s why he knows chicago. I wish that guy would just go away. I at least have useful input. That guy is just a homophobic antisemite ahole.
Speaking of “…the pontifications of elderly, out-of-touch asshats who not only hate Chicago but don’t even live in Chicago…”
Less than 30 days ago cc’s resident epidemiologist endorsed the UK’s then approach of recommending washing hands more often instead of social distancing:
“There’s an obvious Option 3, which is what the UK is doing:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/uk-coronavirus-herd-immunity/2020/03/16/1c9d640e-66c7-11ea-b199-3a9799c54512_story.html
And if Boris is right and the death rates are the same, or less than the US….JB kicked out of the state in shame.”
Wadda ya think hd – does Boris believe he chose the right path? But hey you see the silver lining – your opportunity to glean some coin picking through a coming wave of estate liquidations. They were too fat or too old to have meaningful remaining lifespan anyway according to you – I love the irony of a staunch pro-lifer blithely writing off so many lives.
Speaking of ironic – hd keeps pointing out 55 yr old Pritzger’s paunch while rabidly supporting a morbidly obese 73 yr old fast food junkie? jez sayin’
“GenX – We hate Boomers almost as much as we hate Millennials
Next time I’ll remember to bring your Participation Trophy.”
Too busy surviving broken homes, narcissistic Boomer parents, and 3 major recessions to worry about trophies 😉
“Frank,
get up to speed. helmethofer is a bad, literally evil person. Look up his creepy name as two names, instead of one, and put in a ‘u’ instead of an ‘e’ in helmet. He might actually be that messed dude, that’s why he knows chicago. I wish that guy would just go away. I at least have useful input. That guy is just a homophobic antisemite ahole.”
Dude hh being an asshole doesn’t inoculate you from also being an asshole
“Too busy surviving broken homes, narcissistic Boomer parents, and 3 major recessions to worry about trophies ?”
Unless you’re counting this, sounds like GenX (92, 00, 08)
Sounds like you have enough directed hate to be GenX. If your a millennial, your on the good side of the inverted 80/20 rule
“Uh-huh, as it wipes out 42 out of 120 elderly residents of a nursing home. social distancing is working but its masking the lethality of this disease.”
Um…no. This is exactly within the data that was produced in China and every other country in the age group that is 80 and older.
Nothing is “masking” the lethality of this disease. It’s only people like you HD, who were deniers who are suddenly surprised that it’s killing people.
It’s just the flu!
“If I wanted to listen to the pontifications of elderly, out-of-touch asshats who not only hate Chicago but don’t even live in Chicago”
Yes, my reminder that Helmethofer does NOT live in Chicago. Never has. That’s why he never actually has any comments on the actual real estate the rest of us are discussing.
I find it sad, really. To have that much hate and anger all the time.
Just ignore him. He’ll go away. He always does.
“Does the calculus change if one of them works for Groupon?”
If they keep their job, no. Groupon has been laying off for 6 months or more. If you weren’t already looking for a new job, then you were not real bright. But I know many people think it won’t happen to them (that they’re laid off) and will stay until the bitter end at a failing company.
Really, all of this hand wringing is the same stuff we all debated 10 years ago. Back then, prices fell because the inventory was HUGE, as were the foreclosures.
The bubble literally burst.
Right now, inventory is the lowest in a long time and foreclosures (for now) are low. Even if foreclosures were to spike, it will be several years until those move through the system and increase the inventory. So not relevant to today’s market, really.
Even with 20% unemployment that lasts 3 to 5 months, there will still be plenty of people making good money in Chicago to afford the limited number of homes for sale for $750,000 in Logan Square or that $500,000 West Loop condo. And hopefully we’re already on the way to recovery at the end of the summer.
No one knows. First pandemic for all of us.
“Whatever strain hit Japan/South Korea/Taiwan/Hong Kong, Australia, clearly changed as it spread around Europe, and has gotten worse as it spreads around the US.”
This is wrong and dangerous.
The number of cases in Japan is spiking again. They’ve had to do more lockdowns. Same with Singapore. It’s a constant challenge. You have to have good government that can do the contact tracing.
We don’t have it. Europe didn’t have it either.
“HD, I saw that article. Kind of douchy and a bit of an exaggeration. Feb and March were about the busiest I’ve ever seen in the business.”
Thanks, Russ, for confirming just how hot the housing market was to start the year.
It was on fire. Here in Chicago, and everywhere.
I actually thought it might overheat but, alas, we got the virus instead which threw everything into a deep freeze.
What will happen as it thaws though?
I still know people doing deals and closings right now. It’s not what it was to start the year, but it’s not completely dead out there either. You can do virtual closings now.
A lot of people WILL keep their jobs, and won’t have a salary cut, and they will want to sell and move. Rates are still low.
“Yes, my reminder that Helmethofer does NOT live in Chicago. Never has.”
Liar. Pathetic.
“You can do virtual closings now.”
Docusign
“I at least have useful input.”
You’re a legend in your own mind. But your mind is inept, you simply cannot connect the dots as to why your world is the way it is. Too bad for you, you just whine and cry instead of having the freedom I have. HD is just a loser driving down the road, anybody slower than him is an idiot and his betters driving faster are “maniacs” and “bigots” and “crazy” and “evil” or whatever else.
Even if foreclosures were to spike, it will be several years until those move through the system and increase the inventory. So not relevant to today’s market, really. ”
———————————–
Wrong. Shadow inventory dampened prices for years after the 08 recession. In doing so, it hurt appreciation, and therefore hurt one’s ability to move up the housing ladder.
“inventory is the lowest in a long time”
It’s low on an absolute basis but extremely high, for this time of year, relative to contracts being written.
“You have to have good government that can do the contact tracing. ”
This works until it doesn’t, they call this ‘community spread’ which is just another name for “we have no idea how this person got it.” This plague lives in the air, it comes in your house every time you open your door or window, and seeps in through the gaps in your garage door. It’s everywhere like every other germ that is present in the environment.
“Wrong. Shadow inventory dampened prices for years after the 08 recession.”
The shadow inventory isn’t just the zombie homes the banks sat on for years, it is also the loan mods that gave underwater borrowers 3.5% interest rates, 40 year mortgage and tacked all the unpaid principal onto a balloon payment at the end of the mortgage. I’ve personally seen a lot of these from both the lender and borrower side. The scary thing is that many of these people are still in their homes (family members of mine included!) and they’re about to fall behind again. There are literally millions of these still around from the last recession, many concentrated in the hardest hit and working class neighborhoods.
Will all of these marginal borrowers seek second, maybe third loan modifications? Will they make 50 year mortgages and have 2 balloon payments at the end now? Will a $175,000 house be saddled with $280,000 in mortgage debt fifteen years after signing the mortgage note? I have a family member that owes $120,000 principal, plus a $80,000 balloon, on a house that is worth maybe $160,000, and the original mortgage is from 2004. While I haven’t spoken to the family member about their current mortgage situation, I imagine they missed March and April’s payment, I’d be *shocked* if they made the payment. Totally insane if you think about it, sixteen years of on and off paying the mortgage, and here they are, still owing more than the original mortgage, 16 years later. There are WAY more of these than you want to believe.
“A lot of people WILL keep their jobs, and won’t have a salary cut, and they will want to sell and move.”
They may want to “Sell and Move”, but are they going to be able to?
Take the OT property. Couple w/ a kid, probably want to move to a SFH. Aren’t going to make any money on the sale, where do they get the $150k for a DP on a $750k LS Crapshack?
Just saw this. Wow! https://www.housingwire.com/articles/banks-will-soon-be-able-to-postpone-some-appraisals-until-120-days-after-a-mortgage-closes/
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/banks-will-soon-be-able-to-postpone-some-appraisals-until-120-days-after-a-mortgage-closes/
“More important, the rule change only applies to loans kept in banks’ portfolios.”
Not quite as crazy as a move, but still pretty crazy.
““Whatever strain hit Japan/South Korea/Taiwan/Hong Kong, Australia, clearly changed as it spread around Europe, and has gotten worse as it spreads around the US.”
This is wrong and dangerous. ”
Why is it wrong and dangerous to suggest that maybe the disease has mutated into a more virulent form as it spreads farther from its epicenter? My link above shows, at a minimum, 8 identified strains, and the scientists right now are still not even sure exactly how it spreads, whether it remains airborne in the environment, how long it ‘lives’ in the air (I know, viruses aren’t alive). Further anecdotal evidence of this is that the stains on the west coast seem to have come from Asia, while the east coast strains appear to come from Europe, and the death rate on the east coast is far, far higher than the west coast. I’m not suggesting it’s like Contagion or something, but there are mild and severe stains of the flu, no reason to think that after passing through millions of people, there aren’t more lethal stains of the red death.
“Why is it wrong and dangerous to suggest that maybe the disease has mutated into a more virulent form as it spreads farther from its epicenter?”
Because a virus typically mutates – contrary to movie plots – to become less, and not more, virulent.
“Because a virus typically mutates – contrary to movie plots – to become less, and not more, virulent.”
cite, please. as I know you are *also* not a virologist.
““Because a virus typically mutates – contrary to movie plots – to become less, and not more, virulent.””
How do you explain mild vs. severe flu seasons? I’m not saying that the common cold has mutated in Ebola, but, it’s at least in the realm of plausibility that the mutated stains of the red plague in Europe and the east coast of the US might ultimately be more virulent than then original strains from China and Asia. Sabrina wants to give credit to the government for significant contract tracing and competent response. But giving government credit for much of anything, given their record of failures, seems too generous.
Even our state government keeps blaming the federal government for failures with barely accepting any of its own blame.
https://www.npr.org/local/309/2020/02/03/802224980/lunar-new-year-parade-attendance-sags-amid-coronavirus-concerns
“Chinese American Illinois State Rep. Theresa Mah, 2nd District, marched in the parade along with other officials and offered some measured advice.
“We have been telling people to take precautions, to wash their hands and watch for symptoms if they have been in contact with people who have traveled abroad,” she said, “but I hope that there isn’t unwarranted panic and that people are taking the right precautions, but life goes on and we need to celebrate the new year.””
Oh, only if these people knew that 28 days later that their show of virtue signaling probably contributed to the awful numbers of red death spreading throughout chicago and the southern suburbs.
And apparently, NOT going to parade is racist according to one attendee:
“Devante Cosby of Englewood said he also felt compelled to attend in solidarity. “Because a lot of the fear about the coronavirus is based on ignorance and racism and is just an excuse to be racist,” he said. “So, I really came just to show my support. … And to say that we are all human and we all deserve respect.””
Russ wrote:
“Feb and March were about the busiest I’ve ever seen in the business. I was working till about 1am for three weeks straight and I still couldn’t get to every deal. The spigot got turned off but it is still fairly busy. It will probably be a good year. Some guys probably made their entire 2019 income in Feb and March.”
Sabrina replies:
“Thanks, Russ, for confirming just how hot the housing market was to start the year. It was on fire. Here in Chicago, and everywhere. I actually thought it might overheat….”
How can anything Russ said be taken as “confirming just how hot the housing market was to start the year. It was on fire. Here in Chicago, and everywhere” ?
Or is the difference between a refi and a purchase loan insignificant to you?
In any case, since I may have missed your posts of bidding wars, please provide a link to one showing “just how hot the housing market was to start the year. It was on fire. Here in Chicago, and everywhere.”
Dr. Brilliant mentions it in this:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-outcomes.html
Damn I wish my name were Brilliant.
Pretty sure we will get to that 2.2 million deaths eventually if NYC keeps adding to the count without actually testing if the deceased actually had Covid.
Apparently, 4000 of the 10,000 deaths NYC is claiming didn’t test positive for Covid. They are just “presumed” Covid deaths.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-deaths.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur
“The city has added more than 3,700 additional people who were presumed to have died of the coronavirus but had never tested positive.”
Mass hysteria…
Russ posted “…Mass hysteria…”
But the linked NYT article provides a rational explanation for the addition of 3700 deaths not confirmed as caused by Covid by testing. The shortage of tests makes it impossible to confirm with absolute certainty that Covid caused each of those deaths:
“…The revised death toll renewed focus on shortcomings in testing that have hamstrung city and state officials since the beginning of the outbreak. A limited number of tests have been available, and until now, only deaths where a person had tested positive were officially counted among those killed by the virus in New York.
But for weeks, the Health Department also had been recording additional deaths tied to the virus, according to two people briefed on the matter. Those cases involved people who were presumed to have been infected because of their symptoms and medical history…..”
Imo I don’t believe it’s any different than listing cardiovascular disease as cause of death on a death cert of a deceased obese 80 yr old who had extremely high BP without requiring an autopsy be performed to verify CVD was actual cause of death.
“Oh, only if these people knew that 28 days later that their show of virtue signaling probably contributed to the awful numbers of red death spreading throughout chicago and the southern suburbs.”
It WAS racist. You’re assuming that people working in Chinese restaurants were somehow just in China or exposed to it any more than anyone else. They weren’t.
Nobody boycotted Italian restaurants (still aren’t) even though the breakout was even bigger there!
I was one of those who went to a Chinese restaurant to show my support in late February/early March (I don’t remember the exact date.) And I would do it again.
The bigger question for us all is will ANYONE go out to ANY restaurant in the coming weeks? It’s going to be really, really slow. They’re going to have to socially distance people in the restaurant (only have half the tables full.) But if you have anyone at risk in your family due to medical issues or age, you’re not going out anywhere even after the economy “re-opens” until there is a vaccine.
I hope by July or August, we’re back to some normalcy in terms of the malls etc. But it’s going to be really tough.
I hope that best case scenario in the NYT article is right, and certainly hope this virus just peters out like some of the others, but that article itself mentions the Spanish flu coming back much more virulently in the fall, so I don’t think we can know that it won’t mutate to be worse.
However, if the virus strains from Asia are less virulent and still protective against other strains (as the theory about less virulent strains being the reason the west coast is having less of a problem with it than NY and Chicago (and Detroit) would suggest), then it doesn’t make sense to blame the Lunar New Year parade.
It also doesn’t make sense as it’s not at all clear that the virus was here in any significant numbers in early Feb — in early Feb we still probably could have done test and trace if we’d had enough tests — and based on the zip code numbers it’s not hitting Chinatown’s zip code much harder than 60613 or 60657, and less than 60614. (It is hitting Pilsen harder than average.)
A parade was a mistake, in retrospect, but in early Feb no one was cancelling major get-togethers, and I suspect there are many other events much more responsible for spread in Chicago (St Patrick’s Day partying on 3/13 and 3/14, Purim celebrations — partially responsible for the numbers in 60645 — plenty of other things).
If anything it’s likely more related to when everyone was pulling people back from Italy (like a lot of colleges did, including Loyola, and plenty not in Chicago but who came back through Chicago, like one of the early St Louis cases), but there was nothing in place to test everyone who came back.
“I was one of those who went to a Chinese restaurant to show my support in late February/early March (I don’t remember the exact date.) And I would do it again.”
Wow, I can’t wait for the Wikipedia article on your civil rights support. You are a modern day Rosa Parks LOFL
Virtue Signal much?
I support small businesses JohnnyU.
Do you?
Yes
is that enough virtue signaling for you or do you need to track all my purchases, know what I do for a living, etc to get enough “street cred” from you?
But supporting local businesses isn’t why/what you were doing in that post
“But supporting local businesses isn’t why/what you were doing in that post”
Um…yes it was.
Duh!
People were being racist (which is also why Pelosi went to Chinatown and said it was fine to eat there.) Chinese restaurants, even those in some far flung suburb, saw business decline as much as 50%. From racism and xenophobia that had nothing to do with the facts.
I did my part to give those restaurateurs some money because it was the right thing to do.
That’s it.
And when they re-open after this shutdown, I will be there again as the place I went to is too far for me to get delivery from them during the shutdown. A girl can dream though.
“Nobody boycotted Italian restaurants (still aren’t) even though the breakout was even bigger there!”
Everyone around me stopped going to Italian and Spanish tapas, but once it reached US, I stopped caring about it as there would be no where left to pick up food.
IL just hit a grim milestone, 1,000 deaths. AA dying more than other races, typical Chicago issue.
City of Chicago appears to have enough vents, but Champaign is near full capacity. Hope they can send patients to nearby areas.
http://www.dph.illinois.gov/covid19/hospitalization-utilization
That page is weird and counterintuitive. For Champaign it says 195 available of 205. I take that to mean they aren’t using very many.
“People were being racist (which is also why Pelosi went to Chinatown and said it was fine to eat there.) Chinese restaurants, even those in some far flung suburb, saw business decline as much as 50%. From racism and xenophobia that had nothing to do with the facts.”
Pelosi was out there telling people to do that literally the day before they declared a state of emergency… now all you idiots are doing is blaming trump for not doing anything sooner when it is the local governments that are in charge and fucked up.
” AA dying more than other races, typical Chicago issue.”
yeah well thats because poor blacks are incredibly unhealthy and are either obese, smoke, or have other underlying health issues
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/black-health.htm
probably white people’s fault though, definitely nothing to do with the war on poverty or food stamp programs or any of that sort of thing
“It WAS racist. You’re assuming that people working in Chinese restaurants were somehow just in China or exposed to it any more than anyone else. They weren’t.
Nobody boycotted Italian restaurants (still aren’t) even though the breakout was even bigger there!”
It’s not racist, it’s common sense to avoid restaurants and areas occupied by large numbers of people who have recently traveled to or recently associated with people who traveled to China. In fact,the first case of the virus came from a lady living in, from my understanding, chinatown, and she had spent the holiday break in Wuhan. She transmitted the disease to her husband only (so they say) but she had very minor symptoms and totally recovered, even though she spent a few weeks in isolation at a hospital in the northwest suburbs.
Not a single person who avoided the area had racist intentions, and its only been the virtue signaling of others who have declared it to be racist, as they say everything is ‘racist’.
The real *racism* if you’re following the news, is China now blaming the virus on africans in China. There’s signs posted all over the country saying “no african foreigners welcome here” and they’re literally rounding them up and putting them in hotels, as they are being blamed for spreading the second wave of the virus. It’s all over the news, all over social media. This is actual racism, not the fake racism of “Lets avoid chinatown today since they’ve discovered a lady with wuhan virus there”.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/16/fact-check-guangzhou-china-mcdonalds-confirms-incident-targeting-blacks/5139470002/
“In fact,the first case of the virus came from a lady living in, from my understanding, chinatown, and she had spent the holiday break in Wuhan.”
If she lived in Chinatown, why was she in the St. Alexius Medical Center in Hoffman Estates? Not saying you’re wrong, but it’d be weird.
That initial Illinois infection was announced January 24, btw.
Pointing out racism in China erases racism against Chinese-Americans. Got it.
“Pointing out racism in China erases racism against Chinese-Americans.”
There are bad people on both sides, Madeline, so … something-something??
I kinda agree with HD here.
It’s racist if you don’t go to a Chinese restaurant because you don’t like Chinese people. That’s one thing.
I don’t think it’s racist to say “Hey, this virus is asymptomatic in a lot of people, and Chinatown has a huge immigrant population that travels back and forth a lot, and ships all kinds of food and product from overseas let’s be careful”.
You could say the same about a British pub, tapas place, or Italian restaurant, but its a lot less likely that the people working in those places are flying back and forth from those countries as often, or shipping their pasta in from Italy, etc.
Again, I’m south east – asian, and if this had started in India or Pakistan, I’d avoid Devon st. like the plague, again, because there are a LOT of immigrants going back and forth – just like chinatown.
When this thing gets under control I’ll be the first person sitting down for some hotpot in chinatown.
My family in general is barely eating out anywhere, period. We don’t know enough about this virus, and how long it can stay active on food, plastic, etc. Why take a risk?
I indulged in a burrito (after discarding the packaging ) and thoroughly cleaning the aluminum foil it came in recently, and that was pretty incredible.
People were being racist (which is also why Pelosi went to Chinatown and said it was fine to eat there.) Chinese restaurants, even those in some far flung suburb, saw business decline as much as 50%. From racism and xenophobia that had nothing to do with the facts.
So avoiding a potential high risk population is racist. Why bother practicing social distancing then?
I know we’re a bleeding liberal city, but why is everyone so butt hurt over this?
If you have children or a spouse with a pre-existing condition, elderly parents living with you, etc – why in the heck would you frequent a neighborhood known to be full of immigrants that travel often?
My family is all immigrants, I’m extremely liberal, and I understand this. Why don’t you guys?
I bring this up because of my much higher than normal ‘dislikes’ on prior comment.
“Pointing out racism in China erases racism against Chinese-Americans. Got it.”
You obviously missed my point, you have reading comprehension problem. I will explain in simple words:
Avoiding Chinese restaurants during the early phases of the red plague: NOT RACISM AGAINST CHINESE AMERICANS.
Would it be RACIST for Chinese people themselves to avoid Chinatown early in the red plague? NO – NOT racism.
Chinese rounding up Africans in China and forcefully quarantining them and refusing to serve them – because of the color of their skin: THIS IS RACISM.
Hopefully I cleared up that confusing for you.
“If she lived in Chinatown, why was she in the St. Alexius Medical Center in Hoffman Estates? Not saying you’re wrong, but it’d be weird.”
No, not weird at all:
“A Chicago woman diagnosed with the only confirmed case of coronavirus east of the Mississippi River in the U.S. remained in good condition Monday in isolation at Amita St. Alexius Medical Center in Hoffman Estates, officials said.
The woman, in her 60s, is receiving care St. Alexius because her regular physician is on staff there and directed her to the emergency department after appropriate screening, said Olga Solares, associate vice president of communications and media relations for Amita Health.”
https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200127/coronavirus-patient-remains-in-isolation-at-hoffman-estates-hospital
I drive past one major hospital network as I drive to my own major hospital network. Not usual to have doctors all over the various suburbs especially if she’s on some sort of HMO or something.
“When this thing gets under control I’ll be the first person sitting down for some hotpot in chinatown.”
I’m not a huge chinese food fan, I mean, I’ll eat it. It has nothing to do with being racist, it has to with the quality of the food and the taste. BTW Chinatown, at least as recently, had its own version of a ‘wet market’ with that one indoor market selling everything from turtles, and rabbits, and ducks, frogs, and such. I’ve seen it myself when I’ve been there in the past. These are old vids off youtube (i didn’t post them and they are old, but still relevant).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFeruF10R8I
(warning, graphic pictures of mistreated frogs, turtles, other animals at Chicago’s wet markets)
The last time I ate in Chinatown, about 10 years ago, we walked through this market a few doors down from our restaurant, and I can safely say, I’ve never been back to Chinatown after that.
Although we occasionally order Chinese food from a place around the corner from me, but the food is always fried, salty and the sauces are all corn syrupy. Kinda gross.
On the other hand, some of the Japanese restaurants in the northwest suburbs (especially that secret restaurant near busse woods in the back of the grocery, those of you that have been there know what I’m talking about), is amazing. We order food from there at least a couple of times a month when I’m in the area for business, I order takeout and being it home. A-maz-ing beef udon broth.
While Trump did allow hundreds of thousands of travelers to come in from China several weeks after the alarm was sounded (and months after U.S. intelligence knew better), isn’t the biggest source of US infection from travelers coming in from Europe?
I traveled to and from British Columbia on March 5 and 9. Returning on the 9th, the barely awake U.S. agent yawned and asked if I had been in China in the past two weeks. Didn’t matter that I had interacted with people (coming in from all over) and surfaces in the airport, or that I had just spent a few days in Revelstoke shoulder-to-shoulder with people from all over in bars/restaurants/hot tubs/chairlifts/snowcat. It is absurd that people are STILL fixated on China with this.
“Not [un]usual to have doctors all over the various suburbs”
At least somewhat unusual if you live in the middle of Chicago.
“It is absurd that people are STILL fixated on China with this.”
You and I obviously consume different media, because it is completely appropriate to blame China for this. The circumstantial evidence (even reported now by fake news WaPo) is that the wuhan bat lab was really lax in their safety protocols, and someone in the lab caught the virus and spread it. BAck in september. even after multiple lab employees got sick. then lied about it to the world, covered up the source, blame it on the wet markets, lied about the number of sick people, lied about death, allowed millions to leave Wuhan during what was close to the apex of the spread. They ‘flattened the curve” and now report zero new cases (and blame africans for all new cases). Except that NO country around the world has anything close to even resembling china’s curve. NO country around the world was prepared for this – Iran is getting slammed, as was Italy (which also shut down quite early), France too, now south america is getting it. Government is always unprepared, that’s not unique to Trump. But when the world’s worthless epidemiologists rely on even more worthless Chinese data, you get what we got.
And if you want to trust chinese data (and few do), you must then thank God that Trump intervened early and saved MILLIONS of lives, literally millions of lives by his early actions. We actually have a case and death per million rate not outside of nearly every other western country.
So your blame is entirely misplaced.
“At least somewhat unusual if you live in the middle of Chicago.”
Unusual? No. Uncommon? Maybe. My doctor has a satellite office at St. Alexis even though his main office and primary admitting privileges are dozens of miles away with a different medical group. She may have gotten the first appointment available (given the urgency of feeling sick after returning from Wuhan, Hubei Provence, China), and that doctor said, “Hey, I’m at my other office today, come out here” and she did. And the she was directed to walk into the ER.
I get that there might be something here worth investigating, but it’s probably nothing too important.
“Trump intervened early”
That’s utter bullshit. There’s reasonable basis for argument on a lot of other points, but the federal government did NOT intervene “early”.
Are you trying out for a legal expert gig on Fox News?
“I get that there might be something here worth investigating, but it’s probably nothing too important.”
Where have you read that she lived in Chinatown? I’ve only seen “Chicago”, and there are Chinese folks all over Chicago, not just Chinatown.
“because it is completely appropriate to blame China for this”
I agree that it may have originated in China and their #s are under-reported, but the spread among each country is its own fault.
Many countries have it under better control by taking effective measures or acting more quickly. Taiwan and Hong kong have tons of Chinese going back and forth but shut down flights from all countries and now they have zero new cases. S korea had a mega-cluster but managed to contain it by sending all positive asymptomatics to facilities/hotels. Japan is seeing a second minor surge and having 10 deaths per day, but prophylactically placed the entire nation into lockdown when people in Michigan are protesting to open up the country while having 2000+ deaths.
CDC and Trump failed at every step and let the virus spread all over our country. The deaths in US is STILL increasing faster than any other country, so it’s a matter of time that the deaths per million would overtake Italy, France and Spain. And there are tons of people dying at home, nursing facilities, or in ER, who aren’t even tested.
“That’s utter bullshit. There’s reasonable basis for argument on a lot of other points, but the federal government did NOT intervene “early”.”
So Trump’s early interventions didn’t save millions of lives? All the experts said we were going to have millions of deaths. Trump intervened early, he saved millions.
Or if the feds did not intervene early, where are all the dead bodies the experts predicted? Is it a big conspiracy to hide the true number of deaths?
You can admit Trump intervened early and saved millions, or you can say that the experts were totally wrong, and he was totally justified NOT intervening early, and he was justified waiting.
You can’t have it both ways.
Mouse,
You can’t in good faith say that HK and Taiwan are even comparable to the US. HK has 8M people and they’ve kind of been on lockdown for months now anyways with the protests, and Taiwan has 22M people and is 1/273 the size of the US. Only Japan is your nearest comparison but all they’ve managed to do is slow the spread, not stop it, it’s still spreading now despite being shut down for nearly twice as long as us. How do you explain the rest of Europe? Did that socialist paradise totally screw it up, even though we have a lower death per million rate than all those western countries? You just hate Trump and want to blame him for everything. Your TDS is affecting you, too difficult to have a rational conversation with you now.
“So Trump’s early interventions didn’t save millions of lives?”
First, the “millions” numbers were always through late 2021. So we don’t have any idea yet. Still plenty of time for the world to make a hash of it.
Second, it simply wasn’t “early”. CDC and Fauci were recommending social distancing guidelines 3+ weeks before Trump took that step. It was NOT early.
You clearly are gunning for a guest spot with Judge Jeanine.
Also: “still spreading now [in Japan] despite being shut down for nearly twice as long as us”
What makes you think that they were shut down like us at all?? PM Abe didn’t declare a state of emergency, or suggest folks stay at home, until *April*.
Trump was like the proverbial guy with a hammer – everything is a nail. He did the only thing he knows how – close the border. He delayed the spread. I don’t know that a single life was saved because the time was squandered – insufficient ramping up of PPE, testing, and ventilators and the virus got here from routes other than China anyway.
“insufficient ramping up of PPE, testing, and ventilators and the virus got here from routes other than China anyway.”
Testing doesn’t save lives, especially for asymptomatic people (upwards of 30%, likely a lot higher). And there’s an 80%+ death rate for virus patients who go on ventilators. it’s so high that they’re doing studies that show just putting peopel on their stomachs instead of vents actually has a higher survival rate.
And the PPE issue is totally fake news. Nearly all PPE is mostly made in China. Where do you expect PPE to just magically appear out of thin air?
Gov Cuomo today in an interview admitted as much (he often says the things you’re not supposed to say out loud). He said that nearly all the supply chain of PPE comes from China, along with the chemical to do testing, along the medicines to treat patients. And he said that China basically shut down exports of this stuff months ago when they had their own problems, and they’re still not releasing the bulk of their supply. He too blamed the government for not coordinating deliveries (instead of federalism – every state is a sovereign government model) but admitted that PPE is hard to come by for everyone, because it’s all made in China, and that’s a national security issue.
But Gary, these are inconvenient facts that belie the orange man bad narrative that floats out there around town. I often feel like I’m the one guy actually spreading truth and facts in this town while everyone else, including the governor, just wants to blame trump for all that is wrong in life.
have a good weekend everyone, be safe.
“If you have children or a spouse with a pre-existing condition, elderly parents living with you, etc – why in the heck would you frequent a neighborhood known to be full of immigrants that travel often?”
I don’t think this is racist. I chose to divert my Home Depot trip over the weekend from the HD near 60645 to one (that I hadn’t realized existed, but is closer anyway) in 60618. Probably irrational, but eh, not racist.
I do, however, think that blaming Chinatown visits (or Chinatown in general) for the outbreak in Chicago — let alone Chinese restaurants in general, most of which are not in Chinatown — would be at the least irrational. To claim we (or SF) has an outbreak because people did not avoid Chinatown is silly if you look at the actual facts.
Early on test, trace, and quarantine would have saved lives and prevented the need for the shut downs.
“I’m not a huge chinese food fan, I mean, I’ll eat it. It has nothing to do with being racist, it has to with the quality of the food and the taste.”
From Eater McHenry. Please be aware that HD’s racism will NEVER affect his reviews, due to his extreme and obvious journalistic integrity.
“I know we’re a bleeding liberal city”
So pathetic, but you’re right. Chicago used to be “The City that Works” and “The City of Big Shoulders”, but sadly Chicago has (somehow) decided that following the San Francisco model is the paradigm it wants to choose! Oh so cool!
This ridiculous paradigm is proof that Chicago will always be a second-city, a follower not a leader. It’s too bad.
We now have a sexual pervert, someone morally/sexually insane, for a mayor. It’s pathetic. What else can be said?
I guess we never had good governors, and we still don’t. We have a fat slob, non-achieving rich-daddy’s-money spoiled goofball. The Pritzkers have pumped so much money into immoral ideologies, it’s manifested itself many places. Pot stores are essential! Liquor too! Penny Pritzker and Obama didn’t help blacks. Another Pritzker (Jennifer/James) who defames the Military museum is a transsexual. Abe Pritzker was a mobster.
Bill Gates has a history with Jeffrey Epstein. The whole Liberal world is a cess-pool of filth and immnorality. “Hate Has No Home Here” is code for hate and perversion.
“We now have a sexual pervert, someone morally/sexually insane, for a mayor. It’s pathetic. What else can be said?”
*Helmethofer emerges from apartment he has inhabited, alone, isolated, surrounded by thousands of newspapers and other debris, since 1947*
“We now have a sexual pervert, someone morally/sexually insane, for a mayor. It’s pathetic. What else can be said?”
*Helmethofer emerges from apartment he has inhabited, alone, isolated, surrounded by thousands of newspapers and other debris, since 1947*
The apartment is in Fort Wayne, IN.
Is that the best you can come up with Frank? There’s a term for moron followers like you: troglodyte
“Is that the best you can come up with Frank? There’s a term for moron followers like you: troglodyte”
Thank you for the gold, hh… sincerely.
Troglodyte, if you’re nasty
Actually had no idea about Jennifer pritzker. First transgender billionaire, interesting stuff.
I’m not usually too political, but I will say that some of the left leaning components of this city are definitely entwined with the corrupt aspects of it..I’m referring to the union situation, the pension situation, the CPS situation…And by left meaning I mean the democratic party of Illinois. I try to ignore it the best I can but it’s ‘in your face’ a lot.
As far as who is trans or gay or whatever, who cares. Live and let live. If you don’t like the thought of being gay or trans, then don’t be it. no big deal. move on. I guarantee you that Lori lightfoot or Jennifer pritzker aren’t wasting time being angry about racist boomers, HH.
I guess the reason I’m even posting is I’m contemplating just getting the F out of this place. I’ve spent my life in the Chicago metro area and it will always be home..but the Crime (just had neighbors robbed at gunpoint not too long ago), the gun violence, the taxes, and the corruption are just getting old. I don’t need to comment on the weather.
My wife has been pushing me to consider scottsdale, Austin, Dallas, or southern Florida…I always won the fight because I do very well fiscally in the midwest..but now that the economy is f’d and my income took a nose dive, moving somewhere new and starting fresh is starting to sound kind of good.
Anybody else going through this?
Maybe the quarantine is just getting to me and I need to simply move to Hinsdale or wherever the young families are going these days….But I would kill for a back yard or a pool right now.
“I guess the reason I’m even posting is I’m contemplating just getting the F out of this place. I’ve spent my life in the Chicago metro area and it will always be home..but the Crime (just had neighbors robbed at gunpoint not too long ago), the gun violence, the taxes, and the corruption are just getting old. I don’t need to comment on the weather.
My wife has been pushing me to consider scottsdale, Austin, Dallas, or southern Florida…I always won the fight because I do very well fiscally in the midwest..but now that the economy is f’d and my income took a nose dive, moving somewhere new and starting fresh is starting to sound kind of good.”
Ugh. Look Riz, you’re Paki-Indian, hindu-muslim. Understand that nobody “hates” you, but please respect diversity. Let white people live in peace. White people don’t hate you, but why can’t whites have their diversity locales?? Don’t poison another white locale, be happy where you are with POC. OK? Don’t move.
HH,
Wouldn’t it be hilarious – that I could expose who you are, to everyone on this website, and on the internet in general?
Because I can. Tempt me. I will blow your entire life up amigo.
Try me, HH.
“Don’t poison another white locale, . . . ”
———————————–
Now, THAT’s racist.
My wife has been pushing me to consider scottsdale, Austin, Dallas, or southern Florida…I always won the fight because I do very well fiscally in the midwest..but now that the economy is f’d and my income took a nose dive, moving somewhere new and starting fresh is starting to sound kind of good.
My $0.02
Getting out early is better than getting out late, especially in the upper tax bracket.
If you want to stay in the Midwest & Larger cities, checkout MPLS/StP, MKE, KC(KS). There’s good smaller city options like Rochester and Des Moines (different quality of life)
Southern Fl should be broken into Atlantic Vs Gulf
Dallas/Ft Worth/Arlington & Austin have changed a lot, but they still are Texas (Good or Bad depending on what you want). Could throw in Nashville in with this
It’s a big country, figure out what’s important to you and go from there
YMMV
“My wife has been pushing me to consider scottsdale, Austin, Dallas, or southern Florida”
So I’ve been trying to figure out where to retire for a few years now. I grew up in Dallas. It’s an easy and really inexpensive place to live. On the north side 6 lane roads every mile. Love it. But my wife hates it because it’s boring and not urban enough. She likes being able to walk to restaurants. Also, in the summer you could have a lot of days over 100. Never bothered me as a kid but I bet it’s a problem for me now.
We looked at Austin and liked it but it’s expensive unless you want to move away from city center. My wife doesn’t want to live in a suburb type environment.
Scottsdale gets pretty hot.
Florida…I really don’t want to deal with hurricanes and don’t think the government should insure against them.
We’re leaning towards the Raleigh/ Durham area. Really nice there and it was affordable last time we looked.
One of the problems is that home prices are rising much faster in desirable cities than in Chicago. So the longer we wait the worse it is.
“Testing doesn’t save lives, especially for asymptomatic people”
Yeah it does. If you can ID people that are asymptomatic but positive you can get them to quarantine and not infect others.
“And the PPE issue is totally fake news. Nearly all PPE is mostly made in China. Where do you expect PPE to just magically appear out of thin air?”
The fact that there is a shortage of PPE is not fake news. We could have ramped up production here in the states if we weren’t ignoring initial reports. 3M actually did starting in January. But if we had given the possibility of a pandemic proper consideration over the years we could have examined the supply chain and fixed our vulnerabilities.
Gary, our national PPE has been going strong for a long time, not just January, 3M has been at capacity for a while. A good chunk of the world’s PPE just happened to be made in Wuhan and they, for all effective purposes, nationalized and hoarded them. I’m not denying that the lack of PPE is a problem, it is, but PPE is just one issue with the globalization, and national security issues, with global supply chains. The PPE our gov is buying is likely fake. He should be encouraging our factories around the state to start making them, maybe he is, I don’t know. There’s a lot of empty factory space, for free, in and around rockford.
Riz, I encourage you to move, but you will likely receive some blow back if you move to a red state. Not because of the color of your skin, but because of your Democrat voting habits. The natives and locals (not townies) in those states dislike big city liberals, of all races, colors and creeds. So if you insulate yourself in a neighborhood of yankees (yes, they will still call you a yankee in the south), you’ll be OK, but you may be the only ‘liberal’ doctor in a neighborhood full of republican doctors. Also, don’t doxx people, that cancel culture is literally the worst aspect of the internet. If Sabrina won’t ban him, she should just shadow ban him. There are plug ins for this. He’ll post his comments, he’ll seem them on any ip he ever logged in on, but no one else will see his comments.
“Yeah it does. If you can ID people that are asymptomatic but positive you can get them to quarantine and not infect others.”
That’s like looking for a needle in a haystack. It’s not realistic to just start testing millions of people hoping to find a few thousand that have no symptoms.
Riz,
just one last thing, if you’ve voted Democrat during your life in Chicago, and then move to a red or purple state, and continue to vote democrat, you’re only spreading your awful beliefs and values to communities that don’t want you there. Your democrat votes were votes for the dysfunctional of Illinois – you alone bear responsibility for your actions. I didn’t vote for the disaster that is JB. I didn’t vote for Blago, or Quinn, or Madigan, or Sandoval, Preckwinkle, or any of them (well, maybe preckwinkle, because Toddler was the alternative, but I voted R in the general). It’s pure insanity to move to a different state, continue to vote democrat, and then complain when things get screwed up there too. I implore you to not take your big city liberal values to other places that don’t want them. Your voting habits only screw up those places.
Thanks for the input everyone.
I guess I’ll see how bad it gets this summer and make a move from there.
HD,
I wouldn’t actually out someone over the internet, HH just truly gets on my nerves once in a while. I’ve dealt with racists before and it’s typically something I can ignore. He just takes it to another level.
Also, I am not a democrat. I am however someone who supports the LGBT community, a woman’s right to choose, etc. At the same time, I don’t believe in making college free, healthcare free, forgiving student debt, or socialist policies. I hate the union/pension mess in this city. I support free speech (even if it’s hateful like HH) and the right to bear arms (although I will never own one) . I’m very fiscally conservative.
Don’t think you can classify me as a democrat or a republican. I’ve voted both ways my whole life , and tend to just pick the candidate who aligns more with my beliefs.
That’s like looking for a needle in a haystack. It’s not realistic to just start testing millions of people hoping to find a few thousand that have no symptoms.
1) Testing early on would have been way more effective than a half-assed “ban” on travel from China (only foreign nationals were banned; US Citizens could and did travel to and from China for weeks after the “ban”)
2) Widespread testing is a prerequisite to “opening the economy”, if you want to avoid wave after wave after wave of infections and death.
WRT leaving Chicago. I live in the city between 1/2 and 2/3 of the year, and spend the rest of the year in a southern city. (We would normally come back to Chicago in early May, but will probably stay put here for another month or so.)
I’m not sure we’ll ever leave entirely, but we may spend more time down south in the future.
I have no current desire to move, as I like it here, despite the various problems (and even despite the ridiculous snow in mid April). I am glad to be in a house with a small yard now, of course — allows me to follow the gardening trend to my heart’s content. However:
“We’re leaning towards the Raleigh/ Durham area. Really nice there and it was affordable last time we looked.”
I think this would be a great choice, and if I were planning to retire and move it would be up there. I know someone who retired in rural VA just a little bit north (after a corporate career where they moved all over), and it’s a beautiful area and there’s lots to do (and great medical care) in the Raleigh/Durham area too.
We will probably be in Chicago for at least another 10-15 years. We’ve seriously considered other cities (portland, seattle, atlanta, austin, charlotte) but at our age and retirement goals, we can’t make it pencil out as we’d be significantly increasing our housing costs to be in an area we’d like. Not too mention most likely have private school costs.
I’d like to retire somewhere south, Maybe in Asheville (or other western NC towns), Nashville, Chattanooga, Blue Ridge (GA), Savannah, Charleston, etc.
I enjoy big city living, but kind of over it. I’d rather visit. I just want some peace and quiet (a little acreage) and to be left alone. Get off my lawn!
“That’s like looking for a needle in a haystack. It’s not realistic to just start testing millions of people hoping to find a few thousand that have no symptoms.”
You wouldn’t just randomly test everyone. However, if someone got sick you would find out who they had been in contact with and test them. Any found to be infected would be quarantined. It’s hard to quarantine those contacts without testing, though I’ve heard of it being done.
I might test high risk workers weekly: healthcare, bus drivers, etc…
Riz, you’re a more socially liberal libertarian. I can respect that. I’m more of a socially conservative libertarian myself. I’m all about freedom (except abortion is totally murder), I say live and let live, I don’t use the government to force anyone to celebrate my values, and I don’t think anyone else should either, and that’s the problem I think progressives
Never want to address. Nothing is stopping them from doing their agenda, their goal is to force their agenda on the rest of us, and pay for it. My tolerance of your belief
System ends when your hand goes in my pocket. And that Includes the current political party system, which unfortunately, we have to pick one which aligns with your beliefs slightly
More than the other party, otherwise, you get screwed. Trump is not perfect, or even good, but he’s slightly better than the other guy.
*says the cis-gendered, life-long privileged white male, who, like Trump has absolutely zero empathy (a fundamental quality for any good leader), and has never suffered any discrimination (‘hey, we all have boot straps, right?)…
hd, you should take your racist, homophobic, misogynist, (“abortion is murder! and I have an absolute right to tell women how to control their bodies…” and, oh, btw, if lots of people die, particularly black people, during this pandemic, well, that’s just the way it has to be…) and spew it somewhere else other than a blog about real estate focused on a city that you hate apparently more than all of the other cities that you have so much hate for… maybe you and hh should check out reddit…
I’ll have to look into the libertarian thing, don’t know much about it.
Oh, and abortion is just one of those issues people on opposite ends of the issue see eye to eye on. I personally have ethical issues with it, but don’t think it’s my right to tell someone else how to handle it. Just one of those things that people will probably disagree on forever. Heck, my wife and siblings and I all disagree about it, I’ve just learned to live with it. Don’t think anybody will be convincing anyone to change their mind about it on here.
Oh and Russ,
Nashville is actually pretty awesome from what I hear. And I believe still relatively affordable. I have family in Asheville and they love it there as well.
*will never see eye to eye on.
“…I say live and let live, I don’t use the government to force anyone to celebrate my values, and I don’t think anyone else should either,… progressives Never want to address. Nothing is stopping them from doing their agenda, their goal is to force their agenda on the rest of us, and pay for it. …”
Sez a guy whose R party trys to control the agenda by eliminating or restricting voters ability to vote. I believe hd/R’s mainly tolerate el Caudillo del mar-a-lago in the hope he’ll deliver a SC decision overturning Roe v Wade so hd’s/R minority opinion/values can be forced on the rest of us. Who you crappin’ hd?
It was ironic to read hd’s recent whining abt local gerrymandering, when gerrymandering (& then lying to cover it up in court cases) has been a core R policy nationwide, and is very evident in neighboring states like WI.
Btw I loved the result of Wisconsin R’s recent bs while attempting to re-elect a right wing Supreme Court appointee – how about you hd? It turns out a majority of people really hate to be f’d with. Could bode poorly for R’s in November. jmo
Southbound,
STOP STALKING ME. I’ll get an order of protection against you, you sick creepy dude.
Jack,
So you’re a baby murderer.
And I’ve never once said anything racist or homophobic on this website, or any website, ever. So you’re a liar. Just because you disagree with my views doesn’t make me racist.
As for real estate, the overwhelming and vast majority of my comments over the years have been about real estate, but the market is dead, and so is my job at this point. C’est la vie
jack,
one last thing, how many conversations with family members about who is going to accept guardianship of the minors when your relatives die? Because I have – and I am that adult that’s going to take guardianship of at least two and possibly up to four minors when my obese and sickly family members die if they catch the red death and don’t survive. But on the other hand, they’re all waiting in food lines miles long begging for food too, and I’m paying for them too, so there’s a price to pay for working and a price to pay for shutting it all down, and they might very well be living on the streets all summer too. what are you doing to make the world a better place, jack?
This is all very very real me, more real that you, whoever the hell you are behind a computer spewing lies and libel. You can sit there and make comments and lie and say I’m a racist, and a homophobe, and a mysoginost, you’re nothing more than liar with nothing. YOu make this about black people you racist. They’re all dying out there. it was chinese in china, italians in italy, native americans in new mexico, eldery everywhere, and you, the true racist, think this is only about african americans. What is wrong with you?
“*says the cis-gendered, life-long privileged white male, who, like Trump has absolutely zero empathy (a fundamental quality for any good leader), and has never suffered any discrimination (‘hey, we all have boot straps, right?)…”
Jack–I’m going to put my boot on your neck, and it won’t be removed until you are extinguished. But wait rather I don’t have to, the lung-pao sicken may well do it for me. Au revoir you evolutionary mistake.
“IT’S NOT THE FUCKING FLU!”
But Sabrina it kind of is though in terms of overall fatality rate.
https://youtu.be/k7v2F3usNVA
Gotta give it to the baby boomers though–second time in 12 years they are going to massively shaft the younger generations in terms of inter-generational wealth transfer/hoodwink.
It’s a lot easier I suppose if you have a pension & don’t have to sell your financial assets. Bravo boomers, well played indeed!
The younger generations are such mouth breathers that do whatever the TeeVee tells them they almost deserve it.
All of you about to face financial ruin, which is probably most of you, well that’s too bad. You did what the TeeVee told ya and now we’re going into a great depression and likely geopolitical conflict over this.
Oh and guess whose not wearing a mask in public & refuses to: good ol’ Bob.
How about them apples? And by applies I mean the fixed costs of real estate ownership AND property taxes (which aren’t going down)?
You guys tried to build upstanding honest lives in a fundamentally corrupt society and will now be ruined for doing so. It’s unfortunate but then again my relatives will be looking to purchase some financial assets on the cheap during this economic crash sold at bargain prices by the likes of you all just so you can keep food on the table. That’s the way the cookie crumbles. Enjoy the cribs! 😀
Hey all you cool cribchatter cats & kittens:
I got another rise & laugh out of Southbound posting an 8.33% fatality rate to spread panic. Never mind that they had no business whatsoever interpreting what that 8.33% was and should have never been paid attention to. He’s just a random asshat who doesn’t realize the denominator for that equation is completely wrong for multiple reasons.
That is the wonder of social media folks–mass panic by uneducated masses responding to hysteria and things they don’t comprehend and then politicians have to respond in kind because these people vote.
I loved the book Flowers for Algernon. It shows the progression of a moron who gets smart then starts to go dumb again. It shows his agony at the realization he is becoming dumb again, as opposed to his blissful ignorance that he was dumb in the first place.
Now that is a work of fiction to be sure, but the point stands: most dumb people are blissfully unaware that they are dumb. If you were to poll 100 random people and ask them whether they thought there were above average intelligence, average intelligence or below average intelligence the latter category would be close to zero and the first one probably around 70% or more.
So now if there is an economic crash and you are financially ruined and had strong feelings about being pro-shutdown I want you to think back to the Flowers for Algernon book as well as the poll mentioned above. Perhaps you, too can experience the emotions of the protagonist Charlie towards the end of the novel.
“But Sabrina it kind of is though in terms of overall fatality rate.”
Well, I guess technically you’re right. The Spanish Flu was the flu also. Would you want to unleash that on the population? Given that we’re currently at 39k deaths and I don’t see how we could be more than halfway out of this I see us having at least 78K deaths by August 1 and that won’t be the end of it and that assumes we continue to do what we’ve been doing. Now, the CDC site says that the flu has had “between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010” so this will likely be above that range, though I do note that the IHME model is still predicting 60K.
Yeah but IHME model is a joke–we’re going to be at 40k deaths today.
It thinks no more deaths after June 22nd? With a curve that flattens so fast & isn’t born out of any sort of reality?
Also they’re still talking about contact tracing even though that’s going to be impossible with this. Take max of 140k deaths from the model & double it & that’s where we’re out even with continued lock down.
Only way out is to find some sort of drug that reduces time and severity of infection for the cases requiring hospitalization by a factor of at least two.
I haven’t seen any country that successfully “flattened the curve”: the China data is likely garbage and even in Italy they’ve just managed to stalemate the spread and keep continued infections & deaths at the same level they were around the time of lock down.
I do think the IHME model might have been done just to provide cover that this shutdown would only be a few weeks when in reality they had no idea. The American people were sold this bag of goods piece-meal on purpose and it’s disgusting. Maybe this is what had to be done but the way they went about to sell to the public is dishonest and disgusting.
Watch over the next week to ten days as the IHME model proves wildly inaccurate (again).
Bob, so we’re in agreement then that the IHME model is under – projecting. I’m saying with a continued lockdown we’re going to be at least at 78K by August 1 and then it continues to grow depending on what kind of therapeutics we come up with and how safe we are.
Also, you are assuming that politicians can make some kind of decision to restart the economy. That’s patently false. It’s not in their hands. It’s in the hands of each of us who will not be going to casinos, events, conventions, restaurants, bars, airline flights, etc… 4 Chicago conventions were cancelled before the politicians took any action. Meat packers are walking off the job. 40% of the east coast postal workers are calling in sick. The wisdom of the crowd is making the decision.
“Anybody else going through this?”
Already did, took action. Its not perfect anywhere but damn I love it here in Reno. I can live like a damn king, and so would you. Very little traffic, 4 seasons of mild dry weather, plenty of stuff to do, if I crave a big city, San Fran is a 3.5 hour drive or 1hr flight away. Barely any taxes at all compared to Chicago lol. Huge demand here for medical professionals as well as the population is a lot of old retired people. At least check it out if youre lookin around!
Bob,
It’s clearly worse than the flu. No one can give me an example of the flu raving through nursing homes killing dozens of residents.
The problem is that red death is a really grey area – it’s lethal enough to sick people to close down the economy; but it’s not lethal enough to healthy people to force them into bankruptcy.
If this were the black plague or ebola, and otherwise healthy people, and children, suddenly appeared with black boils covering their body that burst, or they started bleeding from every orifice like ebola, there would be no question to shut everything down. And I’d be eating squirrel and sparrow stew for the next 12 months. But that’s not the time we live in, and instead, it’s only made partisanship worse, as blue and red gov’s can’t agree on how strict measures should be. Blue states want marital law and red states want open with sensible restrictions. Which method is best?
Ultimately, we’ll figure out if our morbidly obese gov. and his ilk get on the correct side of that fuzzy line by closing everything down; or if the red state govs get if right by opening up early and dealing with the deaths appropriately. I’ll give billionaire fatty credit if he’s right.
But if the southern states suddenly ‘rise again’ because they opened early with no worse effects than the north that shut down indefinitely, there will certainly be a major political price to pay. It could also backfire on the red states too. Tis’ really interesting times to live in.
In the meantime, be safe.
Is Bob back? Iirc Bob disappeared from cc abt 5 yrs ago when HH accidently posted a dm between hh, bob & hd on cc? I went looking for the post but instead found a quote that perfectly describes what created these three hate filled angry white supremcists who are incensed that the world has changed and they’re obligated to compete agst ‘inferiors’:
“If you are taught bitterness and anger, then you will believe you are a victim. You will feel aggrieved and the twin brother of aggrievement is entitlement. So now you think you are owed something and you don’t have to work for it and now you’re on a really bad road to nowhere because there are people who will play to that sense of victimhood, aggrievement and entitlement,,, ”
Condoleeza Rice (if attribution is correct) predicted dt’s fundamental appeal to his supporters imo.
Stop stalking me southbound. Its really really creepy.
“Condoleeza Rice (if attribution is correct) predicted dt’s fundamental appeal to his supporters imo.”
While I agree with your conclusion it must also be admitted that the same quote also explains Bernie’s appeal. Two sides of the same coin.
“Blue states want marital law and red states want open with sensible restrictions. Which method is best?”
This is a lie. One of the states that completely shut down, and was among the earliest, was Ohio. It has a Republican governor.
He is also now complaining that they don’t have enough PPE, including swabs.
It’s continued incompetence in this administration. Did anyone ever hear complaints from generals that they didn’t have enough men, guns or bombs in Afghanistan? Were there stories of generals fighting each other to get those supplies?
Never.
Incompetence.
“But if the southern states suddenly ‘rise again’ because they opened early with no worse effects than the north that shut down indefinitely,”
Florida already has more cases than most in the north.
“Oh and guess whose not wearing a mask in public & refuses to: good ol’ Bob.”
You’re an asshole.
The whole point is NOT to infect other people.
They have now tested the entire Teddy Roosevelt. Of those who tested positive, 60% were asymptomatic. That’s higher than what even Dr. Fauci was predicting (25% to 50%.)
Does anyone think we’re going to have ANY big public events until there’s a vaccine?
No.
We will re-open a lot of public places, but many people in the hardest hit cities won’t go. I suppose people in rural areas will go to McDonald’s and whatnot.
But the 20 largest cities generate 2/3rds of the countries GDP. Without the cities, the economy is toast.
“Nashville is actually pretty awesome from what I hear. And I believe still relatively affordable. I have family in Asheville and they love it there as well.”
Nashville prices have doubled in the last 5 years. It’s still “cheap” compared to the coasts, however. But the infrastructure isn’t keeping up with the number of people moving there and the big employers, like Amazon, coming in. For instance, there’s virtually no public transportation. There’s a few buses but it’s basically worthless.
They’ve talked about putting in light rail but people don’t want to pay for it and some of the main roads are state highways, so city can’t unilaterally do it.
Asheville is insanely expensive now. You aren’t getting a home for under $400,000 there now. Check out the downtown condos. $700,000 or $800,000 for a condo. Good times.
Small towns up in the mountains have also gotten “trendy” with breweries etc. but no hospital nearby and mountain roads treacherous all winter.
“I’d like to retire somewhere south, Maybe in Asheville (or other western NC towns), Nashville, Chattanooga, Blue Ridge (GA), Savannah, Charleston, etc.”
Chattanooga is a hidden gem. Still cheap(er) with good restaurants and things to do.
Charleston will be underwater. They are already discussing elevating the homes in the historic city by like 10 feet to save them.
Love Savannah. Slightly cheaper than Charleston and has a decent airport. That large port and the college keeps it invigorated.
“just one last thing, if you’ve voted Democrat during your life in Chicago, and then move to a red or purple state, and continue to vote democrat, you’re only spreading your awful beliefs and values to communities that don’t want you there.”
Political parties are constantly changing. Does anyone really think that the Republican Party of today is the same one as in 1990?
Hell, just 25 years ago California was completely Republican. But the party changed and voters switched.
“We’re leaning towards the Raleigh/ Durham area. Really nice there and it was affordable last time we looked.
One of the problems is that home prices are rising much faster in desirable cities than in Chicago. So the longer we wait the worse it is.”
Raleigh is one of the most popular cities for Bay Area transplants. They’ve pushed up the prices.
What about Richmond, Virginia? Lovely town that’s urban but smaller. Similar hot, humid weather to North Carolina all summer long.
“Southern Fl should be broken into Atlantic Vs Gulf
Dallas/Ft Worth/Arlington & Austin have changed a lot, but they still are Texas (Good or Bad depending on what you want). Could throw in Nashville in with this”
Wait until your kids are done with school if you move to any of those states.
“What about Richmond, Virginia? Lovely town that’s urban but smaller. Similar hot, humid weather to North Carolina all summer long.”
We lived there for 6 or 7 years before coming back to Chicago 21 years ago. I absolutely loved it there. I lived a 10 minute drive from work and had a reserved parking spot. My home cost less than my annual income at the time. We lived on a cul de sac and the kids played in the street. We never knew where our kids were and didn’t worry about it. Everyone’s front doors were unlocked during the day and kids moved freely between houses. It was a 5 minute walk to the community pool where everyone hung out in the summer.
But, alas, my wife likes Chicago better and after mostly growing up here my kids liked it better here. I’ve brought it up but my wife does not want to move back there for reasons I don’t fully understand. Been there done that? She leans too far left? But I think others should definitely consider it.
“Wait until your kids are done with school if you move to any of those states”
Why?
According to you, it doesn’t matter where your kids go
Besides Dallas has 2 HS in the top 20 nationally (Chicago only has 1). Therefore it must be better.
“Hell, just 25 years ago California was completely Republican. But the party changed and voters switched.”
That’s a misrepresentation of what happened. So many right leaning residents left California, and so many left immigrants replaced them, that nearly the entire state is now blue. This is pretty well documented. I personally know CA republicans who’ve left. I have relatives there who are Republican and they stopped voting years ago, because really, what’s the point? The party adapted it’s beliefs to the times (as did the other parties). People didn’t leave the CA Republican party – they left California entirely.
““Blue states want marital law and red states want open with sensible restrictions. Which method is best?”
This is a lie. One of the states that completely shut down, and was among the earliest, was Ohio. It has a Republican governor. ”
One Red state closed down early, but a quick google search shows that many others are slowly reopening with sensible restrictions, while the authoritarian and large King JB the VIII, screams “we’re in the middle of a pandemic!” and cancels school for the rest of the year. I mean really? Businesses are shuttering, and even major corporations are feeling the burn of insolvency, the state of IL is about to go bankrupt, and we’re about to have a taxpayer revolt, and this guy can’t find any room for common sense restrictions? really? What will be left when this is all over? This moron in charge can’t see the forest for the trees. The collateral damage is clearly, very very clearly, worse than the disease.
“it kind of is though in terms of overall fatality rate”
So, flu this year: 26,000 deaths out of 39,000,000 cases. one per 1,675 *infections*.
covid in NYC: 1 death out of 1,000 *population*.
For the fatality rate to be kind of the same, you’d need to either assume (i) assume that NYC has a 100% cv infection rate as of today AND that further deaths will be minimal, or (ii) expect about 300,000 flu deaths per season. 10x worse is not anything like “about the same”.
“That’s a misrepresentation of what happened. So many right leaning residents left California, and so many left immigrants replaced them”
That’s a misrepresentation of what happened. Pete Wilson and Prop 187 happened. It was the great GOTV turning point for Ds in CA.
“it doesn’t matter where your kids go”
Well, if you’re in Dallas, they’ll go to UT or AM or Oklahoma, like all their friends, instead of a Big Ten school. Since no one gets into private schools from any HS anywhere.
So it is a *little* different.
“That’s a misrepresentation of what happened. Pete Wilson and Prop 187 happened. It was the great GOTV turning point for Ds in CA.”
Fact Check on Anon(tfo)’s claim: Horribly wrong, totally Fake news.
Anon(tfo), you know better than this. But your TDS affects your ability to think clearly and analyze the evidence. You believe the narrative instead of actually looking at data and facts. TDS affects peoples’ ability to do that:
https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/08/why-gop-declined-in-california/
Why the GOP Has Declined in California. It’s not because the party enraged Latino voters.
“In a 2007 analysis, Hoover Institution fellows Morris P. Fiorina and Samuel Abrams found that growth in Latino Democratic voters contributed, on average, three percentage points to Democratic margins of victory. An important shift, but not by itself the makings of a landslide.
That eliminates the ideas of a Latino landslide and of a Democratic boom. And if there was only a mild increase in votes for the Left, it raises the question: Where did all the votes for the Right go? As it turns out, Texas.
Well, Texas, Nevada, and Arizona, among other states — basically, anywhere that’s cheaper than California. With the end of the Cold War, the massive defense-research complex centered in southern California began to pack up shop. This industry had been the state’s largest for decades, and it was a reliable source of middle-class Republican votes.
On top of that, California — a onetime magnet for working-class people, whether Italians and Irish during the Gold Rush, Okies headed to the Central Valley in the 1920s and ’30s, or post-war migrants riding waves of industrialization — has ceased to attract blue-collar labor. Since 1990, the state has experienced a net loss of 800,000 working-class people — 156,000 to Texas alone — because of California’s rising cost of living. A large portion (though not all) of these people were Reagan Democrats, the so-called white working class that the Republican party has come to rely on.”
The same is happening in Illinois too. The IL GOP is dead in the water while in surrounding, better run states, like MO, IN, WI, IA, have either Republican govs, or legislatures, or both. IL is totally screwed from this red death. Expect a michigan and detriot like dystopian future as the state quickly hollows out as residents leave for greener pastures.
Dude, gtfo. Other than your uncle in Sunnyvale (or wherever), how many people *in CA* did you talk to about it in, say, the 1994 to 1998 period?
“TDS” isn’t an argument, or even relevant, you water-carrying whore. Keep that crap to your Facebook echo chamber, that thinks that SARS means “south asian respiratory syndrome”. Clowns!
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/talking-about-men/201901/is-trump-derangement-syndrome-real-mental-condition
Is “Trump Derangement Syndrome” a Real Mental Condition?
Many have argued that some people have been seriously disturbed and distressed by the policies, speech, behavior, and tweets of President Trump, so much so that it has affected their cognitive, affective, and behavioral functioning. Such people may need mental health support. As such, further research is necessary to investigate the extreme reactions toward President Trump, in the same way that researchers investigate other extreme social phenomena, such as Beatlemania or the like. This will shed light on the reality of this emerging folk category that has been labelled by many as “Trump Derangement Syndrome.”
“Charleston will be underwater. They are already discussing elevating the homes in the historic city by like 10 feet to save them.”
based upon what? water levels have increased only 1.5feet in the last 120 years at a very steady .19mm/year in Charleston
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=8665530
sounds like more alarmist stupid bullshit to me
“sounds like more alarmist stupid bullshit to me”
Storm preparedness. See, eg:
https://www.postandcourier.com/business/real_estate/charleston-residents-are-raising-their-homes-to-fight-flooding-but-many-cant-afford-it/article_4723de4a-a4d7-11e9-9dea-2b873ca24e8d.html
So, sort of the same “bullshit” as earthquake retrofitting in CA.
so it will only be under 10 feet of water “occasionally” during severe hurricanes
thought so…
“Political parties are constantly changing. Does anyone really think that the Republican Party of today is the same one as in 1990?”
Is the Dem party anywhere near what it was in 08 when Obama was elected?
“Storm preparedness. See, eg:”
Come on, you know that wasn’t her point
“Come on, you know that wasn’t her point”
I was answering sonies, since he wasn’t going to get a real answer otherwise–the goalposts would have gotten moved way more than 10 feet.
True enough
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/talking-about-men/201901/is-trump-derangement-syndrome-real-mental-condition
Is “Trump Derangement Syndrome” a Real Mental Condition?
“Contrariwise, many others ridicule the notion that TDS is anything but a malicious slur term used to discredit and delegitimize criticism of President Trump. […]
“In other words, there are polarized opinions about the nature, reality and existence of TDS.”
“Is the Dem party anywhere near what it was in 08 when Obama was elected?”
Sure. Nancy was Speaker then and she’s Speaker now. Has it moved further left? Sure. Even Obama admits that Biden is much more progressive than he was.
But the Republicans moved further right in 2010 with the Tea Party.
Ultimately parties change, die, grow and new ones come. We could be getting close to the Republican Party either completely imploding, after all, there is a Democrat leading them right now, or it will see some other kind of significant change in order to be competitive over the next decade.
Our political system works best when there are two viable political parties bringing new ideas.
I hope the next generation of Republicans can step in when the party figures out where it’s going. It needs its “Bill Clinton”- someone young and dynamic who can bring the party into the new century.
“so it will only be under 10 feet of water “occasionally” during severe hurricanes”
Nope. The reality is that they will have to spend BILLIONS to build a big wall around the historic area of Charleston to save it.
Sonies, why are you such a denier about what is going on out there? These people are literally LIVING it!!!! Do you think they seriously want to spend huge amounts of money to elevate the house they’ve lived in and rehabbed for the last 20 years if it was only for an “occasional” severe hurricane?
They will mandate it, eventually. But not sure how the Old Town will ultimately be saved.
Of course, another big earthquake could wipe it out too. Lol.
There are “flood-proned streets” in the Old Town.
You don’t know shit Sonies. Seriously. You’ve probably never even been to Charleston.
https://www.postandcourier.com/business/real_estate/charleston-dealing-with-rapid-rise-in-applications-for-raising-homes/article_9dcb3d48-734e-11e9-a99d-6b04f36f3035.html
“So many right leaning residents left California, and so many left immigrants replaced them, that nearly the entire state is now blue.”
This is the dumbest thing you’ve ever said because it’s completely false (as others have already pointed out.)
By the way, where did all those right-wingers go then? Couldn’t have been to Nevada because that sometimes goes blue. And now Arizona is too.
Utah?
“One Red state closed down early, but a quick google search shows that many others are slowly reopening with sensible restrictions”
Sensible restrictions are opening up hair salons by this Friday?
They are insane. We’re never going to get out of this with these stupid idiot Governors with NO spines. The flare-ups and outbreaks will continue on and on and on because of these morons.
“According to you, it doesn’t matter where your kids go”
Because Illinois schools are actually GOOD JohnnyU. Their schools suck. You have to go private. And don’t get me started about Arizona, Florida (the worst!).
Your child will be severely impacted and behind peers. Not to mention that their whole career and lives could be impacted.
You don’t realize what good schools are like until you go somewhere where they just don’t care. Don’t spend the money. Leave it up to the locals to handle. That’s what you get in Texas and Florida. Crap. Crap. Crap.
But they just don’t spend the money. And they don’t care. No taxes! Rock on.
I would never put my child at that disadvantage. Any school in Chicago is superior to those down there.
Everyone I know who lives in Texas does private. Yuck. Blah.
“We lived there for 6 or 7 years before coming back to Chicago 21 years ago. I absolutely loved it there.”
Awesome Gary. You’re the first person I’ve met who has actually lived there.
Have you been back since you left? Every city has changed dramatically. The 1990s were a different time. Cities were dumps. I bet it’s shocking how much it’s changed.
But maybe you wouldn’t like it so much anymore. Lol.
“You’re an asshole.”
You Oldy von Oldersons, the Baby Boomer generation, aren’t going to get through another round of stealing from the younger generations without some of you suffering mightily health-wise. Second time in a dozen years? Nah GTFOOH with that noise.
Plus the young people (those much younger than me graduating HS or college now) are going to be so emotionally scarred from this over-reaction whatever world you thought you had created or were able to maintain is basically gone. You are in abject denial that world has forever changed not due to the bug but due to the over-reaction to it. Humpty Dumpty cannot be put back on the wall now!
Hope you guys have to sell your formerly pricey RE before you either move into the assisted care facility or if you had children & _raised them right_ to a place where they can take care of you.
Now if you didn’t have any children or _didn’t raise them right_ perhaps the nursing home is a scary place these days. C’est la vie!
“I would never put my child at that disadvantage. Any school in Chicago is superior to those down there.”
Sabrina really has no idea how the other half lives. This popcorn is delicious. Assuming Sabrina even has a kid, she wouldn’t enroll them in 75% of the schools within the city of Chicago’s limits.
I’d take a suburban Texas school any day over the majority of CPS schools. It’s a no brainer. Money doesn’t equal outcomes but it does lead to fantastic pensions for CTU union members.
She is someone who never left a blue state or lived outside of the bubble making casual assertions that have no basis in reality. Just because people here in Illinois pay a shit ton in property taxes like New Jersey doesn’t mean a good K12 education. This is a simple concept except for those so married to the lie that to realize it would be devastating to them (sunk cost fallacy & all).
“Have you been back since you left? ”
A year ago we stopped by to meet up with some old friends. Didn’t see much of the city though. When we lived there I worked for Circuit City, which was a major employer in town at the time. Many lived near the HQ so everyone knew everyone. And many of their long term employees had made a lot of money on the stock over the years. The ones I knew did not take my advice on diversifying their portfolios so you know what happened there. I suspect that really changed the character of the area as people moved away.
Because Illinois schools are actually GOOD JohnnyU. Their schools suck. You have to go private. And don’t get me started about Arizona, Florida (the worst!).
Your child will be severely impacted and behind peers. Not to mention that their whole career and lives could be impacted.
You don’t realize what good schools are like until you go somewhere where they just don’t care. Don’t spend the money. Leave it up to the locals to handle. That’s what you get in Texas and Florida. Crap. Crap. Crap.
But they just don’t spend the money. And they don’t care. No taxes! Rock on.
I would never put my child at that disadvantage. Any school in Chicago is superior to those down there.
So you put your kids into Bogan, right? Since it doesn’t matter where they go to school (as long as it’s in Illinois)
All states have Good, Bad and Ugly HS. It’s a neighborhood by neighborhood deal.
You are the poster child for Dunning- Kruger
One of the downsides of smaller cities is the lack of employment options if you are on the corporate track. Often times there is only one or two major corporate employers so if the job doesn’t work out, in many cases you will need to relocate.
One of the great things about Chicago is that there are a ton corporate employment opportunities across a variety of industries. Restaurants, Banking, Pharma, CPG, Professional Services, Law, Manufacturing… boundless job opportunities.
“anonny on April 15th, 2020 at 1:27 pm
“Why is it wrong and dangerous to suggest that maybe the disease has mutated into a more virulent form as it spreads farther from its epicenter?”
Because a virus typically mutates – contrary to movie plots – to become less, and not more, virulent.”
Again, I hate to toot my own horn, but lookie here, lookie here, the red death in fact HAS mutated into more virulent strains,
“of which the most aggressive strains were found to generate as much as 270 times as much viral load as the weakest strains. The aggressive strains also killed the human cells the fastest.”
https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Coronavirus-has-mutated-into-at-least-30-different-strains-new-study-finds-625333
There are apparently now 30 different strains of the virus, which include 19 new ones, and some versions of the red death ARE FAR MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHERS! Any layman watching what is happening around the would could clearly see what was happening, and other scientists hypothesized the same, despite what the virtue signaling of the TDS crowd says. And thank goodness the scientists are there doing real science, figuring this stuff out for us.
It’s not clear from the article which strain Chicago has, but if I had to guess, it’s a more mild to moderate, and not the most aggressive and severe strains.
“Sabrina on April 20th, 2020 at 9:17 pm
“Is the Dem party anywhere near what it was in 08 when Obama was elected?”
Sure. Nancy was Speaker then and she’s Speaker now. Has it moved further left? Sure. Even Obama admits that Biden is much more progressive than he was.
But the Republicans moved further right in 2010 with the Tea Party.”
This is not actually true, it has been the Democrat party that has shifted further to the left than the Republicans have shifted further to the right. You’ve always been liberal so you can’t see the change because you’re in the middle of it, but to us outsiders, the crazies have clearly taken over your party.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/246806/understanding-shifts-democratic-party-ideology.aspx
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/05/16/has_the_republican_party_really_moved_to_the_right_137048.html
“It’s a common view these days that the Republican Party has moved decisively “to the right” over the past generation. According to this “rightward shift” narrative, George W. Bush pushed the GOP away from the center, and now, under Donald Trump, the party is indulging its most radical right-wing tendencies.
The narrative is commonly accepted, but is it correct?
The short answer is “no.””
I’m so sick of people everywhere spreading fake news and ideology
based narratives that a 20 second google search would prove wrong, even from their own sides’s most respected sources.
“Any school in Chicago is superior to those down there.”
GTFO!
Bogan, Dunbar, Wells are better than Highland Park HS?
And don’t say “well the cost of entry to that community is too high”–you made a completely blanket statement that is laughably, absurdly, inaccurate.
If your contention is that the worst public HS in Dallas or Houston is worse than the worst in CPS, I don’t have a basis to argue that, but it ain’t even in the ballpark of what you wrote.
“https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Coronavirus-has-mutated-into-at-least-30-different-strains-new-study-finds-625333”
So, now we believe what’s coming out of China?
Because why?
It agrees with your (aka, Trump’s) narrative?
“It agrees with your (aka, Trump’s) narrative?”
First of all, these are chinese researchers, not the Chinese Government or it’s proxy, the WHO. Definitely should be skeptical of anything come out of china, but hopefully this is peer reviewed and confirmed.
Secondly, I follow the news closely, I haven’t seen Trump or any of his followers say the virus is mutating, that’s just me, and other random people on the internet. by no means a trump narrative.
“If your contention is that the worst public HS in Dallas or Houston is worse than the worst in CPS, I don’t have a basis to argue that, but it ain’t even in the ballpark of what you wrote.”
I eagerly await her next blathering on just that
She’s the type that will argue over the superiority of a corn filled shit sandwich Vs a normal shit sandwich, while the rest of the world says hey look it’s a shit sandwich
“these are chinese researchers, not the Chinese Government”
Please to explain–are these Chinese researchers, working in China, fully funded by outside money, untouched by the Chinese government, and allowed to publish whatever they want without interference from the Chinese government?
What makes these two people unique in China, such that they can operate completely outside of the control of the Chinese government on a matter of specific, current import to the Chinese government?
“Bogan, Dunbar, Wells are better than Highland Park HS?”
CRAP–I failed to clarify: I was referring to this school, in Texas:
https://hs.hpisd.org/
Just to try to avoid the “why are you comparing CPS to the north shore?” comment.
“Do you think they seriously want to spend huge amounts of money to elevate the house they’ve lived in and rehabbed for the last 20 years if it was only for an “occasional” severe hurricane?”
So, the following is true, too, right?
“Do you think [EsEff homeowners] seriously want to spend huge amounts of money to [seismic reinforce] the house they’ve lived in and rehabbed for the last 20 years if it was only for an “occasional” severe earthquake?”
I mean, why bother when there is probably a better than 50/50 chance you’re dead before the next 6+ affects SF? Right?
“I mean, why bother when there is probably a better than 50/50 chance you’re dead before the next 6+ affects SF? Right?”
California needs to mandate the retrofitting. That they won’t means thousands will die needlessly when the big one hits.
The problem with California is that so many people have moved there in the last 25 years, since they’ve had the big one, they honestly don’t believe it’s ever going to happen.
But if you had moved to the state in the 1990s, after both the 1989 and 1994 Northridge quake, locals were literally warning you where NOT to live, ie across the bridges, and to live on rock etc.
But that’s human nature. People in Oklahoma didn’t add storm shelters to their new build homes until after the nasty tornadoes in 1999.
All the lessons have been lost since then though.
“California needs to mandate the retrofitting. That they won’t means thousands will die needlessly when the big one hits.”
So it’s part of the Dem plan to kill millions?
Thousands may still die w/ 100% compliance.
“Thousands may still die w/ 100% compliance.”
Won’t happen if the next “big one” is the size of Loam Prieta or Northridge.
Will probably happen if there’s an actual big one–8.5+, but there isn’t precedent for that size quake in CA in recorded history.
“Won’t happen if the next “big one” is the size of Loam Prieta or Northridge.”
You don’t know shit anon(tfo). Are you a geologist now? An earthquake structural expert?
Because they’ve already done the modeling. Have done it years ago. They already know how many people are going to die based on 6.0 and everything else in the neighborhood on the various faults (although that big quake last year really had the experts shaken up because it was in an area and of a magnitude they weren’t expecting).
And they know what it takes to do simple retrofits. In San Francisco, they’ve actually mapped all the homes/buildings on landfill or rock and know which will liquefy and which will collapse. Thousands of structures have been built over garages on the first floor with no retrofitting.
I pray for my friends all the time.
You don’t know shit anon(tfo). Are you a geologist now? An earthquake structural expert?
Because they’ve already done the modeling. Have done it years ago. They already know how many people are going to die based on 6.0 and everything else in the neighborhood on the various faults (although that big quake last year really had the experts shaken up because it was in an area and of a magnitude they weren’t expecting).
And they know what it takes to do simple retrofits. In San Francisco, they’ve actually mapped all the homes/buildings on landfill or rock and know which will liquefy and which will collapse. Thousands of structures have been built over garages on the first floor with no retrofitting.
By earthquake structural expert, are you asking if he’s a California SE, has done work under one, or is it some term you made up? BTW are you?
Models are great an all but turn to crap once something unexpected happens, which you note happened.
Simple retrofits will improve the ability of a structure to survive but it’s not a guarantee.
HD / Sonies / Anon / Russ
I just wanted to state that I appreciate you all and your contributions to this site and your viewpoints whereas we know that HH is a troll. We can do better by not labeling, by not framing a position as simply A vs B, by not getting riled up.
a mostly on point video on discourse on the internet.
https://youtu.be/soYkEqDp760
stay safe and healthy all.
“Because they’ve already done the modeling. Have done it years ago. They already know how many people are going to die based on 6.0 and everything else in the neighborhood on the various faults”
Cite, please! Make sure that it models “thousands” of deaths WITH 100% retrofitting compliance and a magnitude of 6.0 (your number) or even 7.0 (my number). Because that’s what I wrote, Ms. Doesn’t Know Shit.
Also, no one who isn’t completely freaked out by earthquakes (which is fair enough) thinks of a 7 as “the big one”. 7’s pretty darn big, but not epic destruction big.
“homedelete on March 16th, 2020 at 5:53 pm
anon(tfo):
Come on, you know better than this.
There’s an obvious Option 3, which is what the UK is doing:
[…]
And if Boris is right and the death rates are the same, or less than the US….JB kicked out of the state in shame. He can move to the Isle of Mann and swim in his pool of money offshore.”
BoJo, today:
“I ask you to contain your impatience, because I believe we are coming now to the end of the first phase of this conflict and in spite of all the suffering we have so nearly succeeded.”
and
… easing off could lead to a “second spike” in the outbreak, which would mean a “new wave of death and disease” and an “economic disaster”.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-boris-johnson-says-easing-lockdown-would-throw-away-effort-and-sacrifice-of-british-people-11979338
Yes, the 3d way, following BoJo, to a more cautious approach than NYC is likely to take. And if Pritzker isn’t that cautious, as BoJo says, it might be economically calamitous.
You were right, HD!! But for the wrong reason.
Anon(tfo):
https://www.wsj.com/articles/do-lockdowns-save-many-lives-is-most-places-the-data-say-no-11587930911
Do Lockdowns Save Many Lives? In Most Places, the Data Say No
The speed with which officials shuttered the economy appears not to be a factor in Covid death.
You told us to follow BoJo, HD.
That the UK had a 3d way that Pritzker was too scared to follow.
I think you just have “librulz derangement syndrome”.
And, yes, over the somewhat likely perpetual timeframe of sars-cov-2 (unless it eventually creates lasting immunity in people), these closures will likely save very few lives–assuming everyone eventually gets it, about 1 in 200 (ie, 35m) will be dead either way. But also, if 80% of the US *right now* had caught it, the million+ deaths in the course of 2-3 months would have caused serious panic, with likely *worse* ramifications for the economy.
“You told us to follow BoJo, HD.”
This is willfully distorting what I said.
I said to follow Bojo at the time, until that nonsense fake news and now completely discredited Imperial College study came out.
And I was right.
Sweden followed Bojo’s initial suggestion too and they’re doing well. It does seem that all this shutdown was for nothing when less onerous but just as effective social distancing measures could have been in slow.
I never once said this wasn’t a serious disease. all I did was question JB’s ridiculous and economy killing measures.
Are you a government worker anon(tfo)? Are you still getting a paycheck while the rest of us are suffering? My income dropped to basically zero these last two months and my spouse’s was cut nearly in half due to furloughs. But you government workers still get your paychecks….still get your pensions…no shared suffering at all. The public sector these days makes me sick.
“these closures will likely save very few lives–assuming everyone eventually gets it”
NYC brought their hospital system to the brink of collapse. If it does collapse the mortality rate spikes.
“Sweden followed Bojo’s initial suggestion too and they’re doing well.”
Not really true. Their deaths/ MM is way higher than neighboring Norway and Finland. They are ranked #11 in the world and rising. Their cases have not yet peaked.
“Not really true. Their deaths/ MM is way higher than neighboring Norway and Finland. They are ranked #11 in the world and rising. Their cases have not yet peaked.”
And they are hardly not social distancing even so. They also are suffering economically in many industries, because it’s not just the shut downs that are the issue. Good piece: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/27/dont-judge-swedens-light-touch-on-covid-19-yet-says-minister
JD Vance (not a liberal) also had a good thread explaining that.
“My income dropped to basically zero these last two months”
I thought you were a bankruptcy lawyer, HD. I’m a lawyer (not bankruptcy), and I have lots of work — and I know I’m lucky, as I can easily work from home. My partners who do bankruptcy have as much or more work and lots of opportunities, sad as that is for those who go bankrupt. But this “I’m the working man, everyone not suffering works for the gov’t” thing seems silly.
The lightened up order in IL for May seems quite reasonable to me, at least in Chicago metro (I am open to the idea that perhaps it doesn’t need to be the same across the state, although I doubt that would make a significant economic difference).
“I thought you were a bankruptcy lawyer, HD. ”
No, I don’t do bankruptcy. I do litigation, sure, related to insolvent companies, but not bankruptcy lawyer.
But my income is zero. Revenue is not zero but we still have costs to pay.
But we’re all ‘working from home’ these days and the state courts are closed. So no briefs to write, no filings to file, no court appearances to attend to, no new cases coming up because clients are getting furloughed themselves and corporations are downsizing. Most lawyers I talk to are pretty slow too, not a whole heck of a lot going on. One lawyer on the other side of the case basically moved out of state for the last month and answers emails maybe once every couple of days. Everything is basically stayed until May 18, and now probably longer since shelter-in-place order was extended to June 1. I have friends and peers taking 25% to 50% haircuts on draws, and some at smaller firms getting reduced salaries.
Things will most certainly get busy for me, but not today.
” But this “I’m the working man, everyone not suffering works for the gov’t” thing seems silly.”
No, I never said that. I basically said that everyone who works for the government agrees with the shut down – they’re still getting paid. I haven’t seen a single public sector layoff in the news paper yet. Lori Lightfoot said she’s not laying anybody off, nor has JB despite the $7B deficit.
Meanwhile, the small businesses I frequent may not be around in two months. But the government will be.
“NYC brought their hospital system to the brink of collapse.”
That’s hyperbolic, and that did not happen. Things got a little rough, sure, but nowhere near collapsing, and they didn’t need anywhere near as many vents as they said they needed; and a week or two after Cuomo’s epicly stupid rant about choosing who lives or dies, he was donating his extra vents to other states.
“I haven’t seen a single public sector layoff in the news paper yet.”
Their budgets are set the year before based on the revenue that is coming in.
Here’s LA’s mayor announcing a hiring freeze, a 10% salary reduction and furloughs coming this summer. Their fiscal year is July 1.
https://laist.com/latest/post/20200420/your-guide-to-los-angeles-city-budget-cuts
Just the McCormick Place expansion has cost the city $60 million. And that’s not including the loss of all the tax revenue, especially entertainment, the airport and convention taxes.
I can’t even imagine how horrible the Chicago budget is going to look. Same with Cook County. Both will need Congressional help.
“I never once said this wasn’t a serious disease.”
Um…you said it was the flu.
Over 50,000 Americans have died in 4 weeks.
Cook county is going to be a nightmare next year. Do you really think the city workers and their unions will accept a pay cut? Get real. The upper middle class and above will get slaughtered in taxes to make up for this.
“Cook county is going to be a nightmare next year.”
Every city is going to get bailed out. Duh! Every state too.
They’re just going to keep printing. They have no choice.
“about 1 in 200”
I’ve seen multiple independent data points that seem to suggest a fatality rate of 0.6% in a non-overwhelmed healthcare system. They all hit at once and we’re looking at 1 in 50 or 1 in 40.
Noone wants to be the politician that has to answer to their constituents that their policy decisions were the reason nana croaked on election day.
So instead they get to be the politician who has to answer to their constituents that their policy decisions are the reason we’re in a great depression on election day.
But don’t worry, Jerome Powell and Stevie Mnuchin have it under control and a great plan:
https://youtu.be/3nlvk7qFHTw?t=3
“Here’s LA’s mayor announcing a hiring freeze, a 10% salary reduction and furloughs coming this summer. Their fiscal year is July 1.”
This is not a layoff and offer this same package to private-sector workers: they can get a pension for a 10% salary cut and avoid layoff and see how many takers you get, uptake would be close to 100%.
No what is going to happen in deep blue states like Illinois is the direct public sector workers will be mostly shielded while the non-union public sector workers as well as the many indirect workers (non-profit & university administration seat warmers) will take it on the chin.
Illinois has a LOT of non-profit workers as all deep blue states do. It’s crazy how easy it is to set one up and get government money if you’re connected in some way. These people are about to be in for a rude awakening when they realize those political hands they’re used to begging from for votes can no longer provide. And Illinois also has a large number of post-secondary education administration workers as every other state does red or blue.
The time for scalpels to the budget is long since passed this is going to be hatchet time. The patient may well not survive.
“That’s hyperbolic, and that did not happen. Things got a little rough, sure, but nowhere near collapsing,”
This sounds to me like the brink of collapse: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/09/831288797/number-of-patients-at-overflow-hospitals-in-new-york-has-doubled Could the hospitals and staff have handled another 10%? I don’t think so. And there are dozens of stories like this out there. Hell, the hospital staff was strained to their limits.
“Are you a government worker anon(tfo)?”
Maybe–maybe I’m one of the streets and san guys who can’t run a GD streetsweeper during this time bc something-something. Or maybe I’m one of the water department guys who *is* still working. Or one of the *multitude* of city/county employees whose boss is *LYING* about being closed “pursuant to executive order”, when they are in departments *specifically exempt* from the order, bc they work with/to support “essential business”.
Are you one of those lawyers who represent white supremacists pro bono, HD?
“I’ve seen multiple independent data points that seem to suggest a fatality rate of 0.6% in a non-overwhelmed healthcare system. They all hit at once and we’re looking at 1 in 50 or 1 in 40.”
I’ve seen same, of course.
But 1 in 200 in 3-4 months is bad enough if 200,000,000 plus Americans got it in that time frame. And if it were 4x worse (ie, 30,000 to 40,000 dead per DAY) then the economic impact would likely be 10x worse–so you’d kill nana AND get a depression.
“it doesn’t need to be the same across the state, although I doubt that would make a significant economic difference”
It would make almost zero difference–vanishing little economic activity was halted, and a consequential part of what wasn’t now has been due to rampant transmission of the CV.
The dumas downstate separatists are just bellyaching about nonsense, as usual.
“Over 50,000 Americans have died in 4 weeks.”
Total deaths? Covid-19?
Assuming that you mean Covid Deaths + Covid and Pneumonia, the CDC disagrees – https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
The vast majority are >65YO. Maybe we should concentrate efforts in protecting those that are vulnerable?
“Are you one of those lawyers who represent white supremacists pro bono, HD?”
—————————
You got a problem with the ACLU?
“I’ve seen multiple independent data points that seem to suggest a fatality rate of 0.6% in a non-overwhelmed healthcare system. They all hit at once and we’re looking at 1 in 50 or 1 in 40.”
The Death rate is age (And other factors) related.
There’s been 5 deaths (in the US so far) CV-19 related to date for those <15. That's a almost Zero rate
“Assuming that you mean Covid Deaths + Covid and Pneumonia, the CDC disagrees”
Well that’s interesting. Why the huge discrepancy with Johns Hopkins? The White House is clearly using the Johns Hopkins numbers.
“Well that’s interesting. Why the huge discrepancy with Johns Hopkins? The White House is clearly using the Johns Hopkins numbers.
I believe CDC = Confirmed; JH = Confirmed + Probable
If someone does a real post mortem, The Gov, Press & Some in the Medical field aren’t going to come out of this looking very good.
That assumes people actually want facts, not looking for data that supports their opinion or political view
Well, it’s pretty easy to compare recent total death rates to normal death rates and see which approach is closer to explaining the difference. The NYT did that for a number of countries and concluded that deaths were under reported.
” Maybe we should concentrate efforts in protecting those that are vulnerable?”
Uh, that *IS* what the efforts have been trying to do. Protecting the vulnerable means stopping the spread, in general.
Influenza is several times deadlier for the “vulnerable” population. Encouraging *everyone* to get a flu shot is about protecting the vulnerable population, there, too, and merely has the side benefit of increasing your healthy-person odds of not getting moderately ill.
“If someone does a real post mortem, The Gov, Press & Some in the Medical field aren’t going to come out of this looking very good.”
“real” in this case meaning “agreeing with Johnny’s opinion or political view”.
Anything else will get trashed as water-carrying for someone else’s opinion or political view.
“then the economic impact would likely be 10x worse–so you’d kill nana AND get a depression.”
No impossible for it to be 10x. Worse case temporary GDP drop forecast is 50% but many more around 30% or so. You can’t have an economic impact 10x that: -100% is the lower bound (and even then still unlikely for a variety of reasons).
The virus would flow through, a bunch of people would die quickly, people would mourn, there would be a sharp economic downturn but it would be relatively short-lived and life would go on.
Even a 50% quarterly drop & allowing this to flow through would be preferable to the situation we’re in now where the economy can’t really recover and we’ll have multiple quarters of double digit GDP declines. Consumer confidence can’t recover & cascading defaults may well bring down the financial system.
And no personally I’m not 100% confident I wouldn’t have a severe case there’s no way to know that. But at some point you have to accept the reality of the situation no matter how bad the situation is.
“Uh, that *IS* what the efforts have been trying to do. Protecting the vulnerable means stopping the spread, in general.
Influenza is several times deadlier for the “vulnerable” population. Encouraging *everyone* to get a flu shot is about protecting the vulnerable population, there, too, and merely has the side benefit of increasing your healthy-person odds of not getting moderately ill.”
They’ve done a shit job then. 80% of deaths in Minnesota have been in long term care facilities. Stopping the spread in the healthy population just extends the timeline for those at risk
““real” in this case meaning “agreeing with Johnny’s opinion or political view”.
Anything else will get trashed as water-carrying for someone else’s opinion or political view.”
Real in this case would be an unbiased look at the data and determine which courses of action worked and which didn’t. Though I’m not glued to a computer tracking this 24/7 I see very little analysis (OODA loop) as to determine the best course of action. I see political theatre on both sides of the isle
Unlike some I don’t consider myself an expert on all things. I am however able to look at data and call bullshit on the conventional wisdom.
So what part of my comments do you find “Opinion or Political View”?
Was it that stats that 5 individuals under the age of 15 died or that that age has an impact on mortality? Because they are pretty well documented in the CDC link I posted.
Or do you think the Gov, press and some Medical professional have done a good job (On the medical side – I’m not referring to those on the front lines)
“So what part of my comments do you find “Opinion or Political View”?”
This:
“If someone does a real post mortem, The Gov, Press & Some in the Medical field aren’t going to come out of this looking very good.”
You’ve predetermined that what is out there is being done on a faulty basis. Maybe what is faulty is the currently publicly available data?
Maybe the hypothetical “real post mortem” will make the Gov or the Press look *good*–we don’t yet know, unless we’re clouding with “Opinion or Political View”.
I think (to be clear: my opinion; my bias) that claims that s “real post mortem” would show that the “elites” were full of shit and what the claimant thinks is happening now is the “real truth” is a giant red flag of conspiracy theorist BS. Not that it *is* in any given case, but that it is a structure used by conspiracist goofballs to sow distrust, and thus something to look at askance.
“You’ve predetermined that what is out there is being done on a faulty basis. Maybe what is faulty is the currently publicly available data?”
To date, I would say that Gov response and the press reporting has been a shitshow.
“Maybe the hypothetical “real post mortem” will make the Gov or the Press look *good*–we don’t yet know, unless we’re clouding with “Opinion or Political View”.”
The odds of a real/no BS post mortem is about as likely as me buying that $800k Shitshack in LS. There’s a chance that someone like Mayo does something valuable but it will become more Bread and Circuses
Who’s the elite? You?
If I’m the claimant, fine but I’d be following my OODA loop to make sure I was course correcting as new information came in – Not saying the sky is falling or that its just like the flu. And to date, its difficult to make a case where they’ve earned a “porky the pig, you’re doing a heck of a job.”
“Who’s the elite? You?”
Wow. You go to school with clio?
Elite = “The Gov, Press & Some in the Medical field” and anyone else that the proponent of the “real post mortem” may be tilting against on any given day.
It’s “them”, dressed in contemporary grievance politics. For the Bern Bros, it’s the DNC, for the anti-vaxxers, it’s anyone with a brain, for IL Republicans, it’s public employee unions and Mike Madigan.
“You can’t have an economic impact 10x that”
Hi, Perbole, nice to make your acquaintance.
If 30-40,000 were dying every day for 3 months, there would be mass hysteria which would be worse for the economy, and the chances of quick recovery, than merely halting (some) economic activity for the same period.
ALSO: there is not (yet) any solid evidence that infection provides immunity of any duration, much less permanent immunity. If covid becomes an annual, seasonal, illness, and there is no lasting immunity, and no reasonably effective vaccination, the 1 in 200 death toll (with local 1 in 50 death tolls) could recur perpetually until humans evolve past it, or we eliminate every carrier. That would make trying to tamp it down this way seem like a waste.
BUT if there is immunity, and/or a vaccine, and we are talking about (potentially) the delta between say 100k US deaths with the current protocol, and say 5M US deaths with 80% infection in a short period of time–maybe not a waste.
Like I wrote upthread on March 16, it’s a modified trolley dilemma–but each choice has *unknowable* knock-on effects related to the economy over the next decade plus.
Herd immunity likely requires 70% not 80% (for some reason the reality is lower than what the statistical math shows not sure why). They’ve done animal testing to confirm immunity after exposure but it isn’t clear how long it lasts.
It’s a risky strategy but here is another one with less risk that might work: 1) They find a treatment within the next month that works to some degree (plasma transfusions would be it) & 2) a vaccine is developed in short order. Pfizer says maybe by the end of the year.
Not sure plasma donations can be scaled up to accommodate going back to normal so maybe some drug or something that reduces hospital duration.
“No, I don’t do bankruptcy. I do litigation, sure, related to insolvent companies, but not bankruptcy lawyer.”
Ah, I misremembered or misread some of the old threads (back from 2010 or so).
The bankruptcy court here is having hearings by phone, but I guess that doesn’t affect you.
I have no question that my income will be substantially down this year, but right now I’m still writing briefs (I have a case in one state that wouldn’t adjust dates at all, and still have briefing ongoing in a couple of other cases). We also are going to have to do lots of expert depositions by some kind of video technology. It’s not possible for cases to just be stayed while all this happens.
Biggest risk now, of course, is some clients not being able to pay.
“It would make almost zero difference–vanishing little economic activity was halted, and a consequential part of what wasn’t now has been due to rampant transmission of the CV.”
Agreed — and the idea that it halted simply because of the stay at home order vs actual decisions people were already making is just not true. I went into the Loop daily until the Thursday before the Friday when it was announced, and the Loop was dead. Up here, many of the shops in Lincoln Square had already gone to some type of curbside arrangement. People weren’t exactly flocking to restaurants. A friend who works for a big law firm got told by her employer that everyone should work from home and also that no one should go out to a restaurant or place where a group of people were gathered (she cancelled some plans we’d had the weekend before on that basis even before they all started cancelling). The Archdiocese cancelled school before CPS did, and also cancelled masses before the city issued the stay at home order. The idea that this is all some Pritzker imposed disaster makes no sense.
Well, it’s pretty easy to compare recent total death rates to normal death rates and see which approach is closer to explaining the difference. The NYT did that for a number of countries and concluded that deaths were under reported.
The CDC has now done the same for several states and SURPRISE – deaths in the US appear to be under-counted as well.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html?
“death counts in New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, Illinois, Maryland and Colorado have spiked far above their normal levels for the period.”
And that is without accounting for the decrease in deaths from accidents and homicides (in Chicago, they’ll probably just be time shifted–wouldn’t be surprised if July and August are near record shooting numbers).
But how many of these deaths are caused by people deciding to stay home and forgo treatment due to the focus on Covid? Even the article mentions this as a possibility….
“It’s difficult to know whether the differences between excess deaths and the official counts of coronavirus deaths reflect an undercounting of coronavirus deaths or a surge in deaths from other causes. It’s probably a mix of both…
There is also increasing evidence that stresses on the health care system and fears about catching the disease have caused some Americans to die from ailments that are typically treatable. A recent draft paper found that hospital admissions for a major type of heart attack fell by 38 percent in nine major U.S. hospitals in March. In a normal year, cardiovascular disease is the country’s leading cause of death.”
“death counts in New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, Illinois, Maryland and Colorado have spiked far above their normal levels for the period.”
And that is without accounting for the decrease in deaths from accidents and homicides (in Chicago, they’ll probably just be time shifted–wouldn’t be surprised if July and August are near record shooting numbers)
It looks like YTD Chicago Homicides is higher Vs 19
I would be interested to see the suicide rate in April Vs previous years
to see if the deathrates are being pulled forward due to those with a risk profile (Age and comorbidities).
But how many of these deaths are caused by people deciding to stay home and forgo treatment due to the focus on Covid? Even the article mentions this as a possibility
Sure, but I would bet that it’s significantly less than 100% of the increase in deaths.
“It looks like YTD Chicago Homicides is higher Vs 19”
Appears to be +10, which is where it stood on 3-31.
“Are you one of those lawyers who represent white supremacists pro bono, HD?”
That’s a super shitty thing to say. Why would you ask such a loaded question? And since you’re being such an asshole:
The only pro bono work I do is collecting child support from deadbeat dads.
Were you one of those deadbeat dads I’ve pounded into the ground over the years? Is that why you’re so angry?
“The upper middle class and above will get slaughtered in taxes to make up for this.”
I don’t know how much of the lower end of the upper middle class is still going to be around to pay those taxes. The professionals and small business owners I know are getting slammed pretty hard this year. It’s gonna be a down year for everyone. They’re not going to be able to squeeze it from me. And under JB’s new tax plan, my household assuredly is going to have a tax decrease this year! Only .05% sure, but still less.
“This sounds to me like the brink of collapse: [link] Could the hospitals and staff have handled another 10%? I don’t think so. And there are dozens of stories like this out there. Hell, the hospital staff was strained to their limits.”
Gary:
But the very next day, the NYT said: Virus Deaths Mount, but N.Y. Avoids Predicted Surge at Hospitals So Far
Officials had estimated that 140,000 hospital beds might be needed to treat coronavirus patients. Only about 18,500 were in use by week’s end.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-hospitals.html
I stand by my assertion that things got a little rough, and crowded, but not overwhelmed.
And two days later Cuomo was returning ventilators. Gov. Cuomo thanks Niskayuna nursing home and rehabilitation center for ventilator donation by CNYCentralSunday, April 12th 2020
I get there is a fog of war, but wow, some of those models were really bad.
Yeah, I get that the models were bad. In fact the IHME model only yesterday raised their estimate to 73k like yesterday. It was obvious to me last week that we’re going to be at least at 78k by Aug 1 just by eyeballing the graphs. And yes, they overestimated the need for hospital beds. But that’s not inconsistent with a hospital system brought to the brink. Just saw a headline today that some ER doctor there committed suicide. There have been plenty of interviews of the first responders there. You have to look at all the components of capacity: beds, ICU units, ventilators, masks, gowns, staff. The true capacity is whatever resource constrains the response
Check this out: https://thecity.nyc/2020/03/new-york-hospital-icus-nearing-limit-as-covid-19-surges.html
“That’s a super shitty thing to say. Why would you ask such a loaded question? And since you’re being such an asshole”
You started it, HD. I asked it after responding (sarcastically–like actually sarcastically, not “can we get rid of this by drinking bleach, or getting UV light into the lungs” post hoc BS “sarcasm”) to YOUR shitty, loaded, question to me.
You RAIL on and on and on and on (and ON) about how public employees and their pensions have ruined the state of Illinois, and it’s just not fair that they all *prevent* you from moving (bc something something).
And you asked if I am a public employee. Because you disagreed with my view on all this. Basically the worst insult your CC-character knows, and you threw it down:
“Are you a government worker anon(tfo)? Are you still getting a paycheck while the rest of us are suffering? … But you government workers still get your paychecks….still get your pensions…no shared suffering at all. The public sector these days makes me sick.”
[just as a reminder of how nasty you were about it]
You’ve basically been an asshole, to everybody, in this entire thread.
And, again, you’ve demonstrated that you’re a snowflake who can dish it out all over, but can’t take it AT ALL.
Also:
I am genuinely sorry your parents are struggling, HD. That sucks.
I know many others are, too, and no matter what direction various governments/politicians took on dealing with this, there would have been a ton of second guessing (and not entirely form “the other side”–some people who are complaining about this approach would have also complained about any other), and many people making decisions themselves, based on their personal comfort/fears, which would have led to now unknowable consequences for the economy.
Tribune East Tower goes in front of the city Planning Commission for final approval this week. Does anyone really believe it will still be built?
Can’t wait for the update of the Chicago highrises under construction map. I wonder if we’ll have many half-built stranded high-rises like we did with Waterview Tower & the Spire last downturn.
“Can’t wait for the update of the Chicago highrises under construction map. I wonder if we’ll have many half-built stranded high-rises like we did with Waterview Tower & the Spire last downturn.”
Different era. They already have the loans and they aren’t 100% condo towers that they need to sell the units on.
In the Chicago Place development, for instance, only the top floors of the tallest tower are condos. And it won’t be done for several years yet. By then, this “crisis” should be over.
You could argue that they won’t be able to rent out all of those apartments for premium rents. But, again, they won’t be ready for occupancy for several years so the answer to that is probably “they’ll be fine.”
I can’t think of any other mega-buildings that are currently under construction. The others are all still just plans, right?
What about those new buildings in Lakeshore East? Are they under construction? They are trying to sell 600 square foot 1-bedrooms for $450,000.
Also, the banks are still lending with much tighter restrictions among the developers. They aren’t lending to the shady developers who never put up a high rise before like they were in 2005.
That being said, no one is talking about how many units have actually sold in the Tribune Tower conversion or if buyers may walk away from some of those.
Just FYI:
Some new posters are trying to post here with political comments and I’m not going to allow them on. It’s bad enough that we have HH on here.
Let’s stick to real estate as much as we can. Yes, economic issues, and hence politics, will come into play.
How will housing be impacted by the economic shutdown? It’s actually more active out there than I would have thought. Properties are definitely going under contract. Not everyone is laid off or seeing salary cuts. Some are going forward with their plans to move.
“It’s actually more active out there than I would have thought. Properties are definitely going under contract.”
Don’t know what you’re expecting but contract activity continues to be down 60 – 70%. Probably won’t be reflected fully in closings until May. I’ll be doing my monthly update next week.
“Some new posters are trying to post here with political comments and I’m not going to allow them on. It’s bad enough that we have HH on here.
Let’s stick to real estate as much as we can. Yes, economic issues, and hence politics, will come into play.”
Thanks for this Sabrina. I read in various wordpress communities that we should strive towards engagement and positive communities so your comment –
It’s appreciated.
@HD
yeah I know it’s vox, but still take a look. I look at your NYT and Fox links too
anyways for all, it’s interesting on how some charts reflect confirmed and unconfirmed CV19 cases while others ( and yes really looking at you China won’t include asymptotic cases) and I learned that many charts do the comparison based on 100 cases as a starting point.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-3Mlj3MQ_Q
I feel (with no hard evidence) – Gary you see lots more places than I do that
Chicago places green zone and all tends to have a better mix of updated housing than the suburbs? So while midwest club in Oakbrook is miami vice trapped in the 80’s for interiors in the city you get a full spectrum of never updated, updated 15 years ago and then just renovated. One example I that recall from Sabrina’s postings is the John Hancock
“Some new posters are trying to post here with political comments and I’m not going to allow them on. It’s bad enough that we have HH on here.
Let’s stick to real estate as much as we can. Yes, economic issues, and hence politics, will come into play.”
LOFL – You’re #2 in bringing political BS into the discussion.
“It looks like YTD Chicago Homicides is higher Vs 19”
Appears to be +10, which is where it stood on 3-31.
So no decrease in homicides?
I feel (with no hard evidence) – Gary you see lots more places than I do that
Chicago places green zone and all tends to have a better mix of updated housing than the suburbs? So while midwest club in Oakbrook is miami vice trapped in the 80’s for interiors in the city you get a full spectrum of never updated, updated 15 years ago and then just renovated. One example I that recall from Sabrina’s postings is the John Hancock
You’re taking an enclave of 1 suburb as proxy for the entire suburban market? There’s a wide range from Miami Vice themed McMansions, cool Sears Metal houses, Old FLR Classics, 60-70’s ranches to ultra sleek modern.
Im not getting a Miami Vice vibe here – https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/606-Midwest-Club-Pkwy-Oak-Brook-IL-60523/4497474_zpid/
“I feel (with no hard evidence) – Gary you see lots more places than I do that
Chicago places green zone and all tends to have a better mix of updated housing than the suburbs?”
I think there is a lot of truth to that though obviously (as JohnnyU pointed out) there are exceptions. It may be a function of the turnover of the housing. If the community has a lot of 20 year residents the housing may not be updated. But if it turns over quickly then new owners are more likely to update the home. It’s like the Gold Coast and some of the downtown buildings where the residents have been there 40 years and never updated the units. I know someone that lives in a co-op that has been in the family since at least the 50s and the kitchen may be older than that.
“I stand by my assertion that things got a little rough, and crowded, but not overwhelmed. ”
Well, apparently the funeral homes were overwhelmed: https://www.kctv5.com/news/us_world_news/up-to-60-bodies-found-in-four-trucks-outside-brooklyn-funeral-home/article_221c51a0-5790-551e-a623-cf66877b8020.html
Whether it is the gig economy, amazon workers, bank employees, the public sector
the pandemic is having an effect
State and Municipalities are running out of money and public sector workers are being furloughed and laid off:
“Federal lawmakers in Washington, D.C., gave state and local governments one cash infusion in the CARES Act passed last month, but the new relief package that cleared the House on Thursday lacked any new funds for either. And after Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said on Wednesday he’d rather allow states to declare bankruptcy than offer them a bailout, it’s unclear whether any more help is on the way.
Caught in the mix are the teachers and bus drivers, bureaucrats and police officers who make up the spine of the nation’s day-to-day life. In Honolulu, the Governor has proposed a 20% pay cut to public sector workers, including teachers. Los Angeles is requiring city employees to take 26 days — five weeks — of unpaid leave to help offset shriveling tax revenue. In Detroit, there’s talk of furloughing thousands of workers to patch a budget hole. Pennsylvania is telling employees like highway workers who can’t telework to use up vacation and sick leave to keep their checks coming.
The nation’s last major economic crisis, the 2008 financial meltdown, forced state and local governments to shed 3% of their workforce, or almost 600,000 jobs. Half of them were teachers. And while the state and local employees saw less of a slash than their private-sector peers, public jobs have been slower to come back, and have yet to match pre-2008 levels…”
https://time.com/5826016/states-budget-crisis-coronavirus/
“And while the state and local employees saw less of a slash than their private-sector peers, public jobs have been slower to come back, and have yet to match pre-2008 levels…”
How is that possible .gov spending has done nothing but go up?
Many (fed) have switched to contract labor
hahaha lets shed some crocodile tears for the poor public workers… lmao who have done nothing but rake it in since around the turn of the century
no big deal, governor Jabba is just going to let 260 million worth of automatic raises happen for all public employees, there’s nothing he can do! Its a contract! Meanwhile in the real world a million Illinoisans have filed for new unemployment in the last 6 weeks
“Im not getting a Miami Vice vibe here – https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/606-Midwest-Club-Pkwy-Oak-Brook-IL-60523/4497474_zpid/”
$2,000,000 and your backyard is 31st street, a busy road, with 19,000 cars a day. I see there are hedges and a lawn but the busy road is about 60-70 feet away.
Chichow, I will check out that video as soon as I get a chance. Thanks for the link
“How is that possible .gov spending has done nothing but go up?”
It never, ever goes down. In Illinois it goes into the pension black hole but nation-wide I’m really unsure where the $ is going. It’s a whole different world than the private sector that feels pain during downturns.
This time I think there will have to be pain in the public sector. But I don’t think it will hit the payrolls directly at first much–look for all these politically connected non-profits funds to dry up first. And we have _a lot_ of them in Illinois! They are also a very reliable voting bloc for one particular party so this will be interesting to watch.
“So no decrease in homicides?”
Is Chicago the whole country?
yes, no decrease y-o-y in Chicago, but trend was higher, which would *forecast* as flat = down. But I think we need a real post mortem on it to adequately assess, and since we’ll never get one, we can just draw our own conclusions.
“This time I think there will have to be pain in the public sector.”
It’s likely to happen. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/29/cities-states-layoffs-furloughs-coronavirus/
“It’s likely to happen.”
What really bothers me is the number of city and county departments that have shut down “in accordance with the governor’s order”, when they are departments specifically excluded from the order. I think the real reason in most cases is that many/most of the employees take transit, and they (understandable) don’t want to now. But there are other alternatives there.
One I don’t get is why aren’t they doing the street sweeping? Arterial streets are still getting swept, why not the rest?
Is Chicago the whole country?
yes, no decrease y-o-y in Chicago, but trend was higher, which would *forecast* as flat = down. But I think we need a real post mortem on it to adequately assess, and since we’ll never get one, we can just draw our own conclusions.
You were talking about Chicago in this case.
Unless you’re going to make the argument that the 3 less additional homicides in April proves your point. Though like lay statistically insignificant.
In that case let there be no doubt that you are king pedantic.
“You were talking about Chicago in this case.”
Uh, no. I referred to Chicago, parenthetically, after referencing many other states. Here it is again, so you don’t have to look:
““death counts in New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, Illinois, Maryland and Colorado have spiked far above their normal levels for the period.”
“And that is without accounting for the decrease in deaths from accidents and homicides (in Chicago, they’ll probably just be time shifted–wouldn’t be surprised if July and August are near record shooting numbers).”
See, that was “talking about” New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, Illinois, Maryland and Colorado. Not just Chicago.
I merely hypothesized that any temporary decrease in Chicago homicides would result in a deferral of them, rather than avoiding them, contrasted with accidents (which wouldn’t be expected to be more common later) and homicides elsewhere (which are less driven by the BS that drives shootings here).
“How will housing be impacted by the economic shutdown? It’s actually more active out there than I would have thought. Properties are definitely going under contract. Not everyone is laid off or seeing salary cuts. Some are going forward with their plans to move.”
Interest rates are crazy low, and personally I started a refi before the shut down. Due to the volume and COVID, it took longer than expected, and required an extra COVID-related disclosure, but was completed.
With respect to sales, I’d expect them to be down, but we’ll have to see. I suspect moves are way down.
“With respect to sales, I’d expect them to be down, but we’ll have to see. I suspect moves are way down.”
Nationwide, NARS is saying April sales are down about 20%. But it will vary based on where you are located. Obviously, in NYC you are unlikely to be buying a house right now unless you positively HAD to.
But Iowa is wide open still, and hasn’t shut down, so you can be buying in Des Moines without much concern.
It’s considered “essential” however, so the closings are still happening and buyers are still shopping.
“Don’t know what you’re expecting but contract activity continues to be down 60 – 70%.”
I expected it to be down about 90% given that we’re going to see GDP fall over 30% this quarter. So to see that there are even as many contracts as there are is amazing.
I know several people looking right now (!) in the city and suburbs. In the suburbs, under $400,000, there are multiple bids. But inventory is horrible. Sellers are definitely going to wait until the reopen.
I’m expecting a surge of listings the first 2 weeks of June. That should help a little with the inventory problem.
I just took a peak at the early numbers (far from fully reported). Closings aren’t going to be as bad as I thought but that’s because of the existing pipeline. Maybe will settle down 15%+. Contracts much uglier. Probably down 50%. I’ll post official numbers on Thursday.
“You’re taking an enclave of 1 suburb as proxy for the entire suburban market? There’s a wide range from Miami Vice themed McMansions, cool Sears Metal houses, Old FLR Classics, 60-70’s ranches to ultra sleek modern.
Im not getting a Miami Vice vibe here – https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/606-Midwest-Club-Pkwy-Oak-Brook-IL-60523/4497474_zpid/ ”
Should everyone cite at least 3 examples? So I just picked one…so sorry. I just choose Midwest club as one example because
1) a lot of Midwest club was built in the 80’s when Miami Vice was on? maybe late 80’s?
2) A while back there was lots of discussion of city versus suburbs and Oak Brook would come up a lot; maybe because of Clio
I think I do agree with Gary’s later reasoning – how quickly an area turns over. Staying with the west suburbs I find that La Grange housing at least on the interior is more up to date because of continuing new families that move in and they renew the housing stock.
AH I can’t edit. Now I know why my peabrain came up with Miami Vice and Oak Brook.
It was because there were multiple discussions about Clio and his lamborghini
“Should everyone cite at least 3 examples? So I just picked one…so sorry.”
Anecdata meets anecdata.
I think Gary’s contribution was on point–where a house hasn’t been on the market in 30 years, it’s reasonably likely to not have been updated in … 30 years. And if most of the community is very long term owners, you get a lot of stale looking interiors.
I know we’ve alluded to the deferred maintenance/update disasters that much of the New Trier housing stock is, for exactly that reason–lots of people who bought in the 80s and then just stayed put through retirement, but didn’t do significant updating. So many of those kitchens are flashbacks, even in fairly expensive homes. Poking thru some current listings, I think that the cabinet painting … trend, I guess … probably helps some number of places, as it makes it possible to quickly/cheaply cover up the oak (or “oak”).
” given that we’re going to see GDP fall over 30% this quarter.”
Looks like might be journalistic puffery–they have a tendency to do that. Fed is now expecting Q2 GDP to decline by 9.33%. Seems optimistic to me but still far better than 30%.
“Looks like might be journalistic puffery”
Former Fed Chair Janet Yellin is a journalist?
“[Yellin] said gross domestic product is down “at least 30% and I’ve seen far higher numbers.””
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/janet-yellen-says-second-quarter-gdp-could-decline-by-30percent-and-unemployment-is-already-at-12percent-13percent.html
“Looks like might be journalistic puffery”
Former chair of Trump’s WH Council of Economic Advisors, Kevin Hassett, is a journalist:
“You’re looking at something like minus 20% to minus 30% in the second quarter.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/27/kevin-hassett-us-economy-could-contract-30percent-in-second-quarter.html
“Looks like might be journalistic puffery”
The Wall Street economists who contribute forecasts to the CNBC/Moody’s tracking forecast are journalists?
[probably won’t format right]
CONSENSUS 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1
MEDIAN -30.2 15 10 5.7
AVERAGE -29.9 12 10 8
# OF ESTIMATES 9 9 9 8
https://www.cnbc.com/rapid-update/
NY Fed Nowcast shows -9.33% for Q2:
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast
I sure hope they’re right.
“I know several people looking right now (!) in the city and suburbs. In the suburbs, under $400,000, there are multiple bids. But inventory is horrible. Sellers are definitely going to wait until the reopen. ”
The suburbs is easy to explain, there have been articles about people with kids basically looking for a backyard for their children to play in, because being cramped into a tiny condo in the city during a stay-at-home order kinda sucks.
“The suburbs is easy to explain, there have been articles about people with kids basically looking for a backyard for their children to play in, because being cramped into a tiny condo in the city during a stay-at-home order kinda sucks.”
Was just talking about this yesterday. Was out for a stroll and stopped to talk with some NYC transplant friends from across their driveway. We have a very small house (like 1450 sq ft), but a decent yard. If we were still on our originally intended path in Chicago, we’d be in something no bigger than 2,000 ft (probably more like 1,750; I think we were in 1600 when we left), and in either a building or a TH. Really can’t imagine it right now. Even if we had twice the buying power, we’d still probably be really tight, albeit with nicer finishes. Sometimes our 8-year old boy just roams the backyard like a some sort of primal, lone Lord of Flies character – digging holes, making spears out of fallen branches, building snow forts, kicking soccer balls into a hockey goal, playing in a dumpy old playhouse built by the previous owner. This afternoon (over my minor objection), we’re setting up our family-size tent (for the first time since owning it) in the yard, and that’s where we’ll sleep tonight.
There’s a part of me that thinks that, had we stayed in Chicago, we would have left the city for the burbs by now, and had we done so, we’d be experiencing the stay-at-home much the same as we are here. But there’s another part of me that remembers what a big, radical step that would have been, to acknowledge the benefits of living in a nice burb near a Metra stop. My wife certainly never wanted to return to where she grew up (even though she grudgingly recognizes what the north shore has going for it), so to her it would have felt like a surrender, a failure (there was short period of that during the initial transition from ELP to CO).
Break time is over. Our (two) toilets and floors aren’t going to clean themselves.
The dropoff in condo contracts is significantly greater than the dropoff in SFH contracts starting in March. Coincidence or are people thinking they don’t want to be around infected people?
“Coincidence or are people thinking they don’t want to be around infected people?”
They don’t want to be around infected people. Lol.
“The suburbs is easy to explain”
Is it?
Same number of people furloughed, unemployed in the suburbs as the cities.
“Should everyone cite at least 3 examples? So I just picked one…so sorry. I just choose Midwest club as one example because”
I’ve talked about the Midwest Club on here before. It’s the epitome of the Baby Boomer lifestyle. Huge McMansions with excess garages and bathrooms built in gated communities, which come with much higher costs.
No one wants these houses. No one. Even if remodeled. GenX never lived in them and Millennials, and now GenZ, don’t want them. And even if you price it low because you haven’t updated those 8 bathrooms, no one wants to spend the money to update them.
This whole style of living is “out.”
At least in Illinois.
Burr Ridge, St. Charles, Aurora, Naperville and Barrington all have subdivisions like the Midwest Club. Many with the “gated” entry.
Good luck.
“Contracts much uglier. Probably down 50%. I’ll post official numbers on Thursday.”
That’s what I would expect.
We could see a really weak summer as people suddenly get conservative, even if they’ve kept their jobs. No one knows what is going to happen over the rest of the year with the economy. The housing market was weak for months after 9/11. We’ll probably see something similar.
I do agree with Sabrina that living in those kind of gated subdivisions is out. There are just too many options for rich people and not enough rich people to live in them. Remember, Illinois is shrinking in population, not growing, and the uppercrust has their pick of dozens of nice places to live from Barringtons, to the north shore, to hinsdale and western suburbs, to tiny places like Wayne, and now with the wealthy choosing to stay in the city, the prospect of remodeling 8 bathrooms is intolerable.
And the architecture is not good, or functional. The water feature of the house in the midwest club is just a disgusting, lifeless retention pond. It’s more hazardous for children than a pool in the backyard. The $18k taxes are outrageous but not nearly as high as I would have expected. The driveway is just an enormous expanse of pavement. The cost to operate that house has to be astronomical. And the amount of energy simply to travel from one wing of the house to another is ridiculous. I get irritated when I forget and have to go back down a flight of stairs. Imagine having to walk 10,000 steps just to close the garage door or grab a glass of water from the fridge. The short lived age of the fake mansion for the upper middle class doctor/lawyer/accountant is over. Sure, coronavirus may change our living habits forever, but it certainly won’t be changed back into this. Maybe if they suddenly found gold in the Dupage river, and our population swelled, the nouveau riche would suddenly reconsider because of supply and demand…but right now supply for million dollar housing far, far exceeds demand (and has for over a decade now). And a place like this is literally the second to last place most buyers would choose. The last place would be this type of home in port barrington or lake forest, they can’t sell anything out there these days.
“There’s a part of me that thinks that, had we stayed in Chicago, we would have left the city for the burbs by now, and had we done so, we’d be experiencing the stay-at-home much the same as we are here.”
I don’t get people that move to the Chicago suburbs… for the most part they suck ass! And pretty much all suburbs are the same around the country so why not go somewhere where the weather and traffic and taxes and people don’t suck balls.
“gated communities”
when I moved we rented a house in a geezer gated/planned community
it was so god damn annoying to have to use the one gate remote we had at 6PM when the gates shut just coming back from dinner or running out from errands
the landscaping and the hiking trails there were fucking incredible though… but you can still use them if you don’t live there so yeah…
homedelete:
“What was first a bad flu season has apparently mutated into a plague that is spreading throughout the world, and it gets worse in every country it visits, as it now ravages through South America and Africa with reckless abandon, far surpassing any death toll it achieved in Asia.”
annony: “Because a virus typically mutates – contrary to movie plots – to become less, and not more, virulent.”
anon(tfo): [about mutation] “So, now we believe what’s coming out of China? Because why? It agrees with your (aka, Trump’s) narrative?”
OH BOY!: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-05/mutant-coronavirus-has-emerged-more-contagious-than-original
“A mutant coronavirus has emerged, even more contagious than the original, study says ”
Scientists have identified a new strain of the coronavirus that has become dominant worldwide and appears to be more contagious than the versions that spread in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new study led by scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory.
The new strain appeared in February in Europe, migrated quickly to the East Coast of the United States and has been the dominant strain across the world since mid-March, the scientists wrote.
In addition to spreading faster, it may make people vulnerable to a second infection after a first bout with the disease, the report warned.
anon(tf0) – Is Los Alamos part of the Trump narrative too?
HD – the article expressly states that it is not more virulent, only more contagious. Let’s hope it stays that way (i.e., consistent with what Dr. Brilliant notes in the article that I posted). I don’t have time for Trumpian cherry-picking of data or news articles to suit an agenda.
“In addition to spreading faster, it may make people vulnerable to a second infection after a first bout with the disease, the report warned.”
So, that’s a lot of support for continuing with stay-at-home, and not charging ahead foolishly with other peoples’ lives.
Glad that you are citing that with approval, HD. Recognizing the very serious, continuing and possibly/probably growing risks!!
” the article expressly states that it is not more virulent, only more contagious. ”
That’s not quite true. The article says it’s more contagious and while it’s not clear if it’s more ‘lethal’, “[i]n the United States, doctors had begun to independently question whether new strains of the virus could account for the differences in how it has infected, sickened and killed people…”
Dr. Wu says ““We are looking to identify the mutation,” he said, noting that his hospital has had only a few deaths out of the hundreds of cases it has treated, which is “quite a different story than we are hearing from New York.” ”
So even he believes, anecdotally, that the mutated version is more lethal.
I’ll be back in a few weeks with a follow up article.
anon(tf0) said: “Glad that you are citing that with approval, HD. Recognizing the very serious, continuing and possibly/probably growing risks!!”
Very risky, for sure. But a 34% unemployment rate is very risky too, per the Chicago Fed…
https://news.trust.org/item/20200505121915-v51r0
“Very risky, for sure. But a 34% unemployment rate is very risky too, per the Chicago Fed…”
Which I noted 7 weeks ago:
“Pull the lever, diverting the trolley onto the side track where it will crater the global economy, creating unknowable suffering for an unknowable time period.”
“Pull the lever, diverting the trolley onto the side track where it will crater the global economy, creating unknowable suffering for an unknowable time period.”
Duly noted.
JB Pritzker doesn’t have a viable plan to quickly re-open the state. Mitch McConnell is not going to allow a huge blank check to just be handed to the state either so this will be interesting to watch.
Basically Illinois has no rainy day fund because Illinois always budgeted by emergency and this one eclipses all others combined.
Let JB Pritzker try to keep the state shut down in perpetuity and we’ll see how well his tax amendment does in the fall.
Those who thought certain states would always be blue or red are about to be in for a shock when incumbents on both sides get blamed for this. We are heading into a Great Depression.
The recovery will most likely be long and painful but I don’t see how it could get worse. People are going back to work. My phone is ringing again. We’ve hit the bottom.
I found this really interesting. The article doesn’t say how these people plan on getting to work. Maybe they don’t work any more. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/wealthy-new-yorkers-flee-manhattan-for-suburbs-and-beyond.html
I don’t see this happening in Chicago though unless we get really bad like NY did.
Oh…and it’s amazing how all these rich people are responding to a disease that is just like the flu. I guess they were all duped by the media hype.
Gary, the rich people aren’t responding to the disease that’s just the flu, the article says exactly why they are fleeing:
“After going through this in the city … people want a place where, if they have kids, they can get out and do something. They can go out for a bike ride, and go for a run or walk and live their daily lives without feeling inundated by their neighbors,” he said.”
Your snarky comment misses the obvious: Everything for kids is closed now. The parks, playgrounds, schools, day cares, indoor play facilities, kid’s movies, even play dates with other kids, are all closed. People are buying play sets and all kinds of other stuff for their kids to do in backyards. I got one of the last swing sets left at the local box store for my backyard, thank goodness, and I know people who are scouring craigslist for people willing to part with their large now unused two decade old playgrounds. I’ve heard anecdotally that bike shops are having some of their best months ever as people are looking for something, anything to do, and riding on the sidewalks somewhere, anywhere, is betting than streaming more netflix. Contract activity on the lower end, especially anything with a backyard, seems to be going pretty quickly under contract, presumably as people flee the city.
I think the bigger issue however is our state’s plan to basically never fully reopen. Our governor has the strictest plan to reopen most states in the union. Businesses that are looking to grow or expand are going to start looking at other states that are open, because IL will still be closed 6 – 12 months from now. Some businesses may never reopen, or just shift their operations entirely as IL refuses to reopen. We’re already seeing this in CA where Elon Musk has threatened to move to TX. He’s just impulsive but he’s just saying outloud what ever business owner is thinking. How can retail outlets open new stores when malls are closed here? How can chain restaurants open to replace the closed independents when we can only serve at 25% capacity twelve months from now? How will new manufacturing facilities be built here (as we are inevitably decoupling from China) when no more than 50 people can occupy a plant, when our midwestern neighbors will actively be courting business? That backyard in the new house in the suburbs may be useful today, but in a few years, when you go to sell, you’ll be more like living underwater, as property values have dropped so much.
“without being inundated by their neighbors” That sounds to me like they don’t like the density because of their fear that they will catch a horrible disease.
No plan is ever set in stone forever. We will soon know what the consequences will be of states “opening”. If it’s an abysmal failure then we will not follow suit. If it’s a stunning success then I have no doubt we will. My prediction is that the states that open are going to find that the businesses that were suffering are still going to be suffering because people don’t feel safe and the people who do feel safe are going to fuel a resurgence of the disease.
“My prediction is that the states that open are going to find that the businesses that were suffering are still going to be suffering because people don’t feel safe and the people who do feel safe are going to fuel a resurgence of the disease.”
It’s not just retail businesses – it’s offices, manufacturing and so on. Downtown is empty. I know someone who still takes the metra – he says he is often the only person in the train car. Not all of those missing riders are working from home. Some of them are not working at all. Many of them are only kind of working from home, maybe a few hours a day, tops. Hospitals are still closed down too. I have a (minor) medical condition that needs treatment and I can’t even get an appointment. Is downtown really going to be vacant for 12-18 months? While the rest of the country opens up? We’re all going just going to have to put on masks the get back to work and work through this. I don’t think we have a choice at this point. Especially if our governor expects to make payroll for state employees in the coming months. That bailout he’s hoping for is tone deaf as every red state in the country is screaming bloody murder about even thought of it.
“My prediction is that the states that open are going to find that the businesses that were suffering are still going to be suffering because people don’t feel safe and the people who do feel safe are going to fuel a resurgence of the disease.”
This is already happening in Georgia. A LOT of businesses have not bothered to reopen even though they can because the customers just aren’t there. One gym chain apparently opened, then shut and remains shut.
Customers are sparse at restaurants. They don’t trust it yet.
In Texas, the Alamo Drafthouse is not reopening even though it can. They’ve said they don’t know, yet, when they may reopen. They do believe it will be this year.
The consumer has to feel comfortable. And people don’t. Heck, people are complaining that they have to wear a mask in Costco. Do you want to go sit in a movie theater with those same complainers? No.
“Our governor has the strictest plan to reopen most states in the union.”
Thank god!
We have the fourth highest number of cases in the nation. We’ve had over 100 deaths a day for the last 5 days. Our number of cases has apparently plateaued but it’s not going down.
We haven’t yet met the criteria to reopen. I’m glad both JB and the mayor are staying the course. We have to bend the curve. It’s the only way.
Let Musk move to Texas. They need the jobs. They are going to be devastated by literally thousands of lost energy jobs, including many at the corporate level. They’ll likely see a housing crash in some areas like Houston and Midland.
Again, as Gary said, you can open all you want. That doesn’t mean anyone is going to go there. Just look at China as an example. The stores are coming back the slowest of all even as restaurants recover. But nothing is recovering in Wuhan. Do you blame them? I’m not going to eat out in Wuhan. Not yet.
We’ll see similar behavior in America’s hardest hit cities, including New Orleans, NYC, here in Chicago.
Interestingly, I saw a reporter covering the protests in Huntington Beach over the weekend and no one was wearing a mask. But she said everyone in LA County was still wearing a mask everywhere. LA County is getting hit harder than Orange County so it’s a different impact and experience.
If you live in Oklahoma City, you’re going to feel more confident going out to eat in a restaurant than you would in Detroit.
“How will new manufacturing facilities be built here (as we are inevitably decoupling from China) when no more than 50 people can occupy a plant, when our midwestern neighbors will actively be courting business?”
There will be a decoupling from China but it will go to Mexico, Honduras, Philippines, India, Vietnam etc.
I do hope the US brings back some of the vital, national security manufacturing that should never have left like drug production.
But those flip flops and television are still going to be made outside of the United States. The US economy has moved beyond manufacturing. It’s an information/knowledge based economy now.
“Oh…and it’s amazing how all these rich people are responding to a disease that is just like the flu. I guess they were all duped by the media hype.”
One out of every 20 person in NYC has had the virus, right?
That’s why.
(previously posted in wrong thread)
“We haven’t yet met the criteria to reopen. I’m glad both JB and the mayor are staying the course. We have to bend the curve. It’s the only way. ”
It’s disingenuous to say it’s the only way. Your way condemns people to die deaths of despair as they lose their homes, livelihoods, businesses, families and health. This doesn’t seem like a reasonable trade off for a disease that 99.9% of non-obese people under 70 will survive after a little fever and a cough. Now we can have an honest discussion about some sort of middle ground between JB’s way or the highway.
“Your way condemns people to die deaths of despair as they lose their homes, livelihoods, businesses, families and health.”
Your way means we will have the second wave as early as June (as Georgia, Texas, Arizona and other states will have it.)
No good choices. But I’d rather go the China way and crush it down for 2 months and then have the economy slowly reopen and possibly stay reopen. Otherwise, that mom and pop restaurant isn’t EVER going to reopen.
It’s been 12 weeks since Beijing and Shanghai were shut. And in week 13 they are going to attempt to reopen Disney there. That’s success.
And it’s a real shame we have wasted the last 3 months doing nothing here in the US. Instead, we should have been readying how we’re going to do contact tracing so when there are outbreaks (inevitable) we can shut down certain locations or things like gyms and everything else can stay open.
But we’ve done NOTHING.
Still not enough testing and on contact tracing. What a disaster. We’re going to be paying the price economically and psychologically for years.
“This doesn’t seem like a reasonable trade off for a disease that 99.9% of non-obese people under 70 will survive after a little fever and a cough.”
You know this is a lie HD. Why keep repeating this bullshit?
“Not all of those missing riders are working from home. Some of them are not working at all.”
Um…yeah. Over 20 million of them.
This was the whole point of the CARES Act. Try and replace the income so they can pay the bills while they stay at home to bend the curve.
In Illinois, that unemployed person (as long as they are able to get through to the website and get the money) should be getting $4,000 a month through July. You should be able to pay the mortgage/rent and car payment with that. And if you have two adults, you could be getting as much as $8,000 a month.
And yes, the federal government WILL bail out the states as it’s bailing out the hospitals, the colleges, the businesses, and the people. You cannot have the states and cities laying off thousands of people to make budget. That’s a clear recipe for a depression that lasts a decade.
Checks will be cut for ALL states. And the red states are in just as much trouble as the blue. If you think otherwise, you’re a fool. Kentucky has no rainy day fund either (same as Illinois.)
And, by the way, the “rest of the country” isn’t opening up. Only the idiot states are open or reopening. Iowa never closed. It has some of the worst outbreaks per population in the country. Good luck to them. But we should be closing our border to them, frankly.
“You know this is a lie HD. Why keep repeating this bullshit?”
It’s not BS. You can look up the numbers yourself. The asymptomatic rate is very high. It’s bad for elderly and obese and those with immunodeficiency.
You can assess your own risk and stay at home as long as you want. If you are elderly, or sick, or morbidly obese – by all means, don’t leave home for any reason.
But you have no right to tell everyone else to stay at home and collect unemployment indefinitely. Those that want to work should be able to. I’m not saying open up solider field to stadium crowds, or even open the crowded gyms. But a little common sense, like opening day cares, manufacturing and offices, hospitals, doctors offices, so people can try to keep an income stream coming along, is literally common sense. otherwise, you just want to put people into poverty.
Additionally, there’s now an outbreak in the White House and the West Wing. It was inevitable given that they never really locked it down and people continue to come and go every day.
Pence and his staff have been going to other states the last 2 or 3 weeks and that brings in more possibility of exposure as well.
Now, some of the White House staffers, where there was plenty of testing, are saying they’re scared to go to work.
What do they think the grocery store workers are?
Absurd.
And the states think that the rest of urban America should “reopen, wear masks and get on with it”?
Sure Jan.
“It’s not BS. You can look up the numbers yourself. The asymptomatic rate is very high. It’s bad for elderly and obese and those with immunodeficiency.”
I have. It’s complete and utter bullshit.
Talk to some doctors HD. Do you know anyone working in the line of fire during this? If not, follow some on Twitter.
What you are saying is bullshit gaslighting.
I’m so sick of the denial by people who are otherwise intelligent.
Yes, I do have a right to tell people to stay home and collect unemployment. That’s the whole point of the CARES Act.
Apparently HD, you think the US government has the right to enlist men and women via the draft to fight in the nation’s wars but it doesn’t have the right to shut down the economy to prevent mass casualties.
Stay home. Everyone. And the government will pay you.
I don’t know anyone who wants to go back to work who is getting the unemployment. Do you? Most are scared shitless.
And why would we open up manufacturing? They can’t even figure out how to make it safe at meat packing plants. Hey- how about sending people over to Germany to find out how they’ve managed to avoid outbreaks in their plants? But no- we’re stupid and clueless in the United States.
Here’s what is happening in Chicago and why it is we’re not reopening. From the NYT:
Cook County, Ill., which includes Chicago and its closest suburbs, has added more cases of the coronavirus than any other county in the United States on some recent days. On Friday, Cook County added more new cases than the five boroughs of New York City combined.
“Watching a city of such global importance go through this absolutely horrific experience is so incredibly sad to see, but also of course a cautionary tale for the rest of us,” Chicago’s mayor, Lori Lightfoot, said of New York City. She said she had conferred with mayors in many of the country’s largest cities in recent weeks. “All of us have to be prepared, and thinking about, ‘How do we not become the next hot spot?’” she said.
On Friday, she outlined plans for Chicago to further reopen businesses, issuing a set of benchmarks that would need to be reached before some nonessential workers could return to work. Among them: a consistent decline in cases over two weeks, a decline in emergency department visits for coronavirus symptoms and the capacity to test 5 percent of Chicago residents each month. So far, none of the benchmarks have been met, an official said, and no date has been set for reopening.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/09/us/coronavirus-chicago.html
“We have the fourth highest number of cases in the nation.”
By tomorrow we should be third.
” I know someone who still takes the metra – he says he is often the only person in the train car. Not all of those missing riders are working from home. Some of them are not working at all. Many of them are only kind of working from home, maybe a few hours a day, tops. ”
All those meat packing plants had to shut down. Nobody forced them to. Nobody is forcing these companies to work from home: https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-expects-its-staff-to-work-from-home-until-2021-and-its-not-alone/
Kellogg business school’s summer quarter (runs into September) will be virtual.
I’m sure I could create a long list.
The fall semester is up in the air. If this thing is still festering in a couple of months I don’t think colleges are going to want a bunch of young people who think they are immortal partying in the fall. Can you say superspreader? https://www.businessinsider.com/how-major-us-colleges-plan-reopen-for-fall-2020-semester-2020-5#cornell-university-6
Metra ridership is down 97%. I don’t know how they/the RTA, Pace or the CTA survive this without a bailout.
I know of three people who caught the COVAIDS and heard from two of them: first was a slightly overweight guy in his 40s who said it’s worse than the flu, second was a lady in her 30s who has had tons of complications despite not being overweight & having no pre-existing conditions, she’s still in pain two months later after multiple hospital stays her path to recovery has not been quick. Haven’t had a chance to talk to the third person yet.
Also what impact will this have on migration patterns: anecdotally I’m seeing younger generation Z/people in their 20s freak the F out and flee the city. Girl who lived in my building moved out in a hurry and left all her furniture in her unit. Now there’s a box spring, two mattresses and a couch out back and it’s not the only furniture that I’ve seen in the alley lately there is quite a bit of it and this amount is highly unusual.
I see more and more furniture from different buildings just dumped out in the alley as people presumably just lost their job or desire to live in the city and just threw all their shit out.
“Talk to some doctors HD. Do you know anyone working in the line of fire during this? If not, follow some on Twitter.
What you are saying is bullshit gaslighting.
I’m so sick of the denial by people who are otherwise intelligent.”
So what’s the criteria for believing the numbers, that they agree with how you perceive them?
#beleiveallnumbers
“So what’s the criteria for believing the numbers, that they agree with how you perceive them?”
I believe you threw out the marker of a “real post mortem” being required.
“I believe you threw out the marker of a “real post mortem” being required.”
So take no action until its run its course?
Yeah, that’s what I said…
You asked:
“what’s the criteria for believing the numbers”
Previously, you stated:
“If someone does a real post mortem, The Gov, Press & Some in the Medical field aren’t going to come out of this looking very good.
“That assumes people actually want facts, not looking for data that supports their opinion or political view”
Which implies that you think the numbers are crap.
Or do you have criteria for believing the numbers that doesn’t involve waiting for the ‘real post mortem’?
“Previously, you stated:”
Yes
“Which implies that you think the numbers are crap.”
No. Sabrina’s wont to use anecdotal evidence Vs the data available (Flawed or perfect) means ignoring numbers that don’t fit her world view
“Or do you have criteria for believing the numbers that doesn’t involve waiting for the ‘real post mortem’?”
One needs to make decisions based on the best available information.
FYI – A post mortem would analyze more than just the data
“This notion though, that you can just sort of send checks out to everybody and things will be fine is not true.”
“Obviously several have this absurd view that the economy is like some magic horn of plenty. Like it just makes stuff. There’s just a magic horn of plenty and the goods and services, they just come from this magic horn of plenty. And then if somebody has more stuff than somebody else it’s because they took more from this magic horn of plenty. Now let me just break it to the fools out there.”
“If you don’t make stuff, there’s no stuff. Yeah. So, if you don’t make the food, if you don’t process the food, you don’t transport the food, medical treatment, getting your teeth fixed, there’s no stuff. They’ve become detached from reality. You can’t just legislate money and solve these things. If you don’t make stuff, there is no stuff, obviously. we’ll run out of the stores, run out of the… the machine just grinds to a halt”
“You can’t just legislate money and solve these things.”
Of course you can, if you’re a reserve currency. You can print forever. Which is what they are doing. This is why some inflation vigilantes (yes, there are still some alive, ha) are warning that it might not just be food which could see big inflation in the next few weeks.
But that all depends on what happens with demand. If we see a V shape recovery and demand mostly comes back quickly, then inflation could be an issue because they are pumping what they believe to be replacement into the economy, and not excess.
you are such a moron… YOU CANT EAT MONEY IF THERE IS NO FOOD!
Elon is just worried about his supply of whatever drug it is he prefers this week.
The urban exodus is real: https://themreport.com/daily-dose/06-03-2020/report-homebuilding-to-increase-in-less-populated-areas
“The urban exodus is real:”
I’m sorry…what? That article cites quarterly home building stats. Stats that would be for Jan-Mar.
It then concludes–without any other evidence–that this is the “direct result of the pandemic”–which is absolutely nuts.
And that 9.1% growth they feature is for a cohort with a market share of 8.6%–while “large metro core county” still had 7.2% growth, on a market share of 26.4% and “small metro core county” had 8.5% growth on 28.9% market share.
That’s just a clickbait nonsense article, Gary.
6 months ago, there was a similar BS clickbait press releases from NAHB:
“Most Home Building in Milllennial Areas, But Pace Lags Rest of Nation”
https://www.nahb.org/News-and-Economics/Industry-News/Press-Releases/2019/12/Most-Home-Building-in-Milllennial-Areas
The data will tell the story, Gary. Inventory should be on the rise in the city and drop in the suburbs.
I have a friend who has been trying to sell in St. Charles for 2 years. He will be ecstatic, if this is true.
Yeah, I’m going to analyze that once the May data is finalized.
Since we all like anecdata A friend was telling me that he was talking to a builder that we know in Montana. Apparently in the last week people from across the country were buying homes there sight unseen. They builder is raising his prices by $100K.
The quarterly Zillow/ Pulsenomics survey of over 100 real estate experts asked about their outlook for demand of various types going forward. The overwhelming majority said urban demand would decline but suburban and rural demand would increase. See the pink and green table towards the bottom: https://pulsenomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Q2_2020_Special-Report.pdf
“They builder is raising his prices by $100K.”
Here’s one that is $100k more than when first listed, but only $50k more than pre-covid:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6429-Macarthur-Dr-Missoula-MT-59808/250286124_zpid/
So not 100% made up!
“Apparently in the last week people from across the country were buying homes there sight unseen. They builder is raising his prices by $100K.”
Wow- even though Montana had a big COVID outbreak. Yikes.
Good for them. There is still low inventory nationwide. Builders can demand full prices. Home builders on their conference calls have said they aren’t doing much incentives now as demand has come back in April and May once the initial fears of March faded.
Where’s Bob the Bear?
Most homebuilders expecting a hot selling period this summer.
I’m kind of surprised that more listings aren’t coming on in Chicago right now. I thought we’d see a big surge of them in June, once the reopening started. But that hasn’t really happened.
Could the protests be causing a bit of a delay? Will the surge come next week and the rest of June?
If not, the inventory in the city remains very low at some price points and in some neighborhoods. I’d be pretty depressed with the choice if I was looking right now.
We have over 40MM unemployed which will likely result in another lost decade of GDP growth. CBO estimates that GDP won’t recover to early 2020 levels until 2030. You can call it V-shaped or U-shaped but when we’re talking about a decade I’ll call it L-shaped.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4351931-fed-cannot-allow-another-lost-decade
If you want to keep believing that housing valuations are sustainable be my guest.
“ Here’s one that is $100k more than when first listed, but only $50k more than pre-covid:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6429-Macarthur-Dr-Missoula-MT-59808/250286124_zpid/
So not 100% made up!”
“ Wow- even though Montana had a big COVID outbreak. Yikes.
Good for them. There is still low inventory nationwide. Builders can demand full prices. Home builders on their conference calls have said they aren’t doing much incentives now as demand has come back in April and May once the initial fears of March faded.”
Did you even look at the property? It’s been for sale over a year and he keeps jacking the price up. Brilliant marketing strategy
God you are such a dolt (though I think TFO set you up so your inner shill could shine thru)
And why are you talking about Montana real estate?
“And why are you talking about Montana real estate?”
Because if you’ve been reading the blog, Gary and some others have argued that everyone is going to flee the cities and move to the suburbs and rural areas. For instance, many suburbs in New Jersey have seen an influx of buyers from NYC.
So Gary just passed along the story that he heard that people were flocking to buy in Montana suddenly and that they were able to raise prices there.
“If you want to keep believing that housing valuations are sustainable be my guest.”
Another trillion dollar stimulus (at least) is coming from Congress Bob. On top of the $6 trillion we’ve seen already.
So, yeah, the housing prices ARE, actually, sustainable.
“So Gary just passed along the story that he heard that people were flocking to buy in Montana suddenly and that they were able to raise prices there.“
They haven’t sold in 444 days. Let me repeat that THEY HAVENT SOLD IN 444 DAYS
and you are trying to make the point that because of low inventory they can raise prices After 444 days.
Gary isn’t making that point. I guess anon(tfo) was because he posted that link.
Because Gary’s point was this which has nothing to do with anon’s link.
“Since we all like anecdata A friend was telling me that he was talking to a builder that we know in Montana. Apparently in the last week people from across the country were buying homes there sight unseen. They builder is raising his prices by $100K.”
I believe the builder in question works in Bozeman. (Always loved that name. Kinda like Bozo man.)
” I thought we’d see a big surge of them in June, once the reopening started”
I think the mistake everyone is making they are assuming that everyone’s behavior is dependent on the government flipping a switch. I’m sure some are – like the clowns running around Vegas right now without masks and standing right next to each other. Mine is not and there are plenty of others like me that don’t care what the government says or does. We’re going to look at the data and decide for ourselves when it’s safe to do something. Like…I’m going to let my daughter cut my hair (I knew if I let it get scraggly enough she would offer to do it).
“CBO estimates that GDP won’t recover to early 2020 levels until 2030”
That’s in real terms, Bob.
You’ve been here enough to know that nominal is all that matters to most of the cc crowd.
“They haven’t sold in 444 days.”
C’mon, you can see it too, that they listed it as soon as they had the lot ready, and then had it substantially complete in the fall. So it’s been ready to sell for about 6 months, 2 of which were the middle of winter and two more that were covid.
I went looking to see it it was remotely plausible that prices were being raised by $100k, and was shocked to find one that sort of fit that story.
“C’mon, you can see it too, that they listed it as soon as they had the lot ready, and then had it substantially complete in the fall. So it’s been ready to sell for about 6 months, 2 of which were the middle of winter and two more that were covid.
I went looking to see it it was remotely plausible that prices were being raised by $100k, and was shocked to find one that sort of fit that story.”
So the Builder/Developer’s marketing plan is to build a spec house and continually raise prices to cover the vig on the loan until it sells?
“I went looking to see it it was remotely plausible that prices were being raised by $100k, and was shocked to find one that sort of fit that story.”
C’mon – the property is pretty bad example of being able to jack up prices by $100k
I know someone that sold a property in MT that had to cut is price by high 6 figures. I guess that means MT Real estate is cratering
“If you want to keep believing that housing valuations are sustainable be my guest.”
if the fed is giving away 1% mortgages, they might be sustainable
“the property is pretty bad example of being able to jack up prices by $100k”
Yeah, which is why I noted “not 100% made up”. that’s enough data for a goof (not Gary) that wants to claim $100k increases.
Note: $100k increases from builders were a *common* thing in SoCal in 04/05, based on increases in the valuation for land. It is *not* a good thing.
To the extent that it is true for the Bozeman builder, it is most likely related to upgrading finishes, etc, to satisfy the supposed influx of (probably mostly) Californians. So, yeah, $100k increase, because he put another $60k into the house.
Stock market is back to all time highs. That’s bullish for the stock market, especially on the luxury end. Those buyers are going to feel much, much better. Many will also still have nice down payments thanks to the rebound in the market.
We’ve seen the worst of the unemployment now as workers are going back to work. It didn’t come anywhere close to Great Depression levels, thankfully.
Bob is way too bearish. As Gary said, look at all the people who went to Vegas and are staying in hotels there. They are not afraid of COVID. The economy could come back quickly.
“Stock market is back to all time highs. That’s bullish for the stock market, especially on the luxury end. Those buyers are going to feel much, much better. Many will also still have nice down payments thanks to the rebound in the market.
We’ve seen the worst of the unemployment now as workers are going back to work. It didn’t come anywhere close to Great Depression levels, thankfully.”
So Thanks Trump?
“Bob is way too bearish. As Gary said, look at all the people who went to Vegas and are staying in hotels there. They are not afraid of COVID. The economy could come back quickly.”
So per the Covid Karens, the folks in Vegas are all going to die. How’s that going to help the economy?
Or was the mass hysteria over Covid over-estimated/misunderstood the risk profile?
” look at all the people who went to Vegas and are staying in hotels there. They are not afraid of COVID. The economy could come back quickly.”
or they’re just gambling addicts getting their fix…
“So per the Covid Karens, the folks in Vegas are all going to die.”
Well, the covid karens should be ignored.
But there is a reasonable likelihood that those folks in Vegas will help re-spread the virus, and they may well “kill” their older relatives.
“Well, the covid karens should be ignored.
But there is a reasonable likelihood that those folks in Vegas will help re-spread the virus, and they may well “kill” their older relatives.”
One cannot just ignore a Karen.
And the protesters as well, but its good to know that Protesting > Covid
“if the fed is giving away 1% mortgages, they might be sustainable”
Fed is not though. Rates hover around their 2012 lows. Could they go lower?
It’s possible but in both cases (2012 & today) these rates are achieved by the fed buying treasuries to bring down rates. They’d have to substantially increase their rate of purchasing these to bring them lower, which is hard to do when you’re already buying hundreds of billions.