Market Conditions: August Sales Fall 1.4% YOY as SFH Sales Plunge 13.9%
The Illinois Association of Realtors is out with the August sales data. The market cooled from last year’s 4-year high.
Chicago home sales (single-family and condominiums) in August 2021 totaled 2,831 homes sold, down 1.4 percent from August 2020 sales of 2,870 homes.
In the city of Chicago, the median price of a home in August 2021 was the same as in August 2020: $335,000.
August sales since 2007:
- August 2007: 2923 sales
- August 2008: 2078 sales
- August 2009: 1927 sales
- August 2010: 1486 sales
- August 2011: 1787 sales
- August 2012: 2209 sales
- August 2013: 2850 sales
- August 2014: 2414 sales
- August 2015: 2701 sales
- August 2016: 2844 sales
- August 2017: 2791 sales
- August 2018: 2754 sales
- August 2019: 2601 sales
- August 2020: 2870 sales
- August 2021: 2831 sales
August median price since 2007:
- August 2007: $305,000
- August 2008: $297,500
- August 2009: $229,900
- August 2010: $200,000
- August 2011: $192,500
- August 2012: $200,000
- August 2013: $245,000
- August 2014: $269,500
- August 2015: $271,000
- August 2016: $271,000
- August 2017: $284,000
- August 2018: $280,000
- August 2019: $289,900
- August 2020: $335,000
- August 2021: $335,000
“After an anomaly of a year, we may be seeing seasonality come back into play,” said Nykea Pippion McGriff, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and vice president of strategic growth at Coldwell Banker Realty. “During the month of August, sales prices held steady, and residents settled into their homes as the school year began. As summer turns to fall, this could be a great time to reach out to your REALTOR® and start, or restart, your search.”
Average time it took to sell statewide dropped to 24 days from 46 days in August 2020.
In Chicago, it dropped to 29 days from 35 days last year.
Statewide, inventory continued to decline. The number of homes for sale fell 28.9% to 31,054 from 43,653 homes last year.
In Chicago, inventory plunged 18.6% to 8,537 from 10,485 properties last year.
“Last month, the law of supply and demand once again manifested itself in the state’s housing market,” said Sue Miller, president of Illinois REALTORS® and designated managing broker of Coldwell Banker Real Estate Group in McHenry. “What few homes that were available got snapped up quickly – with sellers getting more than their asking price due to the low inventory.”
The average 30 year fixed rate mortgage was 2.84% in August down from 2.87% in July and lower than August 2020, which was 2.94%.
In Chicago, it was another strong month for condo sales as they were up 7.1% to 1837 properties compared to last year.
Single family home sales, however, fell 13.9% to 994.
Are we seeing a return to normal seasonality?
Or is limited inventory crimping sales?
Homes sold fast and prices rose during August in Illinois [Illinois Association of Realtors, Press Release, by Bill Kozar, September 22, 2021]
Sabrina
How did “Penthouse week” end without featuring this “raw space” penthouse option?
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/505-N-Lake-Shore-Dr-60611/unit-7000/home/173962839?1280460695=variant&600390594=copy_variant&231528114=variant&1077477207=variant&utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&utm_campaign=share_sheet
Come on, this is truly some sort of unicorn trophy penthouse option. To own the former “Cite” restaurant spot for sub $5mm. I’d bet that it could be an iconic and beautiful showstopper penthouse that has the potential for three huge outdoor spaces overlooking Navy Pier and the city.
Hate to hijack this great site but this potential penthouse deserves some commentary!
There is a flaw in the way IAR reports this. They compare preliminary 2021 data to final 2020 data. That misses sales that haven’t been reported yet (as of September 7). Already we are up to 2888 closings for August. So it’s the highest sales in 14 years.
“There is a flaw in the way IAR reports this. They compare preliminary 2021 data to final 2020 data. That misses sales that haven’t been reported yet (as of September 7). Already we are up to 2888 closings for August. So it’s the highest sales in 14 years.”
Thanks for the update Gary.
I was surprised to see that it had fallen slightly year-over-year as I remember your initial report showed it a bit stronger.
Either way, however, it was still a solid month.
I feel like the drop in single family home sales indicates that the lack of inventory is really biting. There’s just nothing to buy right now.
I’ve seen a few articles in recent days about all-time record pricing nationwide. For the Case-Schiller 20 index, 19 of the markets are at record prices. The one holdout? Chicago.
In the 20-city index there was an average 19.1% YoY gain with Phoenix, San Diego and Seattle having the highest price appreciation. Six markets — Boston, Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver and Seattle — saw their highest price appreciation ever in the last year! (Data from June closings.) So, yes, Chicago’s market is “hot” still and there’s been recent appreciation but still pales in comparison to many markets. Makes me a bit jealous of homeowners in other markets, but at least I didn’t buy in Chicago in 2006…(I recognize it’s also very neighborhood dependent. Already popular neighborhoods like Lincoln Park probably haven’t appreciated much while West Loop certainly has.)
“Makes me a bit jealous of homeowners in other markets, but at least I didn’t buy in Chicago in 2006…(I recognize it’s also very neighborhood dependent. Already popular neighborhoods like Lincoln Park probably haven’t appreciated much while West Loop certainly has.)”
2006 was a housing bubble.
Best market during the boom years was Lincoln Square. Something like over 200% appreciation.
It hasn’t gone anywhere since. As you correctly noted, Bluedog, West Loop has now become one of the hottest neighborhoods with big appreciation in the last few years.
But Logan Square and Bronzeville are also up big.
And yes, we know that Chicago hasn’t appreciated like other cities. Everyone knows this. The downtown is still getting hit. Until inventory is absorbed, you can get some downtown condos on sale. Back to 2002-2014 pricing, depending.
Also, too many are moving out of the Gold Coast and there is too much inventory there. And much of it needs to be rehabbed. So those are also selling for firesale prices.
” West Loop has now become one of the hottest neighborhoods with big appreciation in the last few years”
And that won’t show *at all* in the main C-S index, as there are basically zero SFH in West Loop.
I’m starting to prep to get ready to sell. I’m still concerned that if I buy now, I’ll end up taking a huge hit. Only now are condos in my building selling for the same price as during the boom. I bought during the bust. I don’t want to move in and immediately lose 30% of value (like my neighbors who bought only a few months before me).
“I’m starting to prep to get ready to sell. I’m still concerned that if I buy now, I’ll end up taking a huge hit. Only now are condos in my building selling for the same price as during the boom. I bought during the bust. I don’t want to move in and immediately lose 30% of value (like my neighbors who bought only a few months before me).”
What would cause it to lose 30% of its value within just a few months?
You would need a lot of inventory, even downtown, to get that.
Demand and the level of inventory is what sets the price. Demand is going to cool over the next few months, especially if mortgage rates rise. But it’s going to take a while for the inventory to build to depress prices.
If you’re so nervous, just sell your place and rent somewhere for a year or two and see what happens. Nothing wrong with renting. You don’t have to “worry” about losing any of your equity that way.
Here’s partial video of yesterday’s Fulton River District gun battle.
https://twitter.com/ant_kneee/status/1443603606515638284
The camera peers south at the Pickens-Kane storage facility (410 N. Milwaukee) from the north side of Milwaukee, roughly 413 N. Milwaukee. The cars are very near the 3-way intersection of Milwaukee, Des Plaines, and Kinzie. You can see the Jewel food store on the far left (370 N. Des Plaines) and you can hear the screams of one man who was shot calling for help.
h/t cwb.com
Yes- it’s terrible wojo. I hope this video is sent to the police. They are asking for any video.
Society has been collapsing for several months. There are no rules now.
The carjackings and shoplifting incidents in the Gold Coast and on the Mag Mile have stepped up pace in the last week. Multiple luxury stores hit during the middle of the day. Multiple car jackings late at night. Muggings in Lakeview even if you’re in a pair of people and in what has formerly been a “safe” area.
How do you stop it?
Also, as a parent and Chicagoan, the shoot out in Fulton Market was my worst nightmare.
That was someone’s child in that Lyft who was shot in the back. Prayers he’s okay. He’s apparently in critical condition. He was apparently on his way to see his girlfriend.
We can’t go on like this. Someone who knows who did this has to turn them in. Their parents. Their aunts or uncles. Their grandparents. Their friends.
Someone.
“Society has been collapsing for several months. There are no rules now.
The carjackings and shoplifting incidents in the Gold Coast and on the Mag Mile have stepped up pace in the last week. Multiple luxury stores hit during the middle of the day. Multiple car jackings late at night. Muggings in Lakeview even if you’re in a pair of people and in what has formerly been a “safe” area.”
If you’re characterizing things that way, that is very concerning.
Apparently there was a carjacking in front of 300 N. LaSalle this morning around 8 AM.
“Apparently there was a carjacking in front of 300 N. LaSalle this morning around 8 AM.”
There was an attempted carjacking yesterday afternoon in Downers Grove at the BP at Main and Ogden. They had a gun. Apparently, they couldn’t get the car started so they jumped out and back in their van and drove off.
What is going on in our society is not limited to “the city.” The suburbs are also seeing carjackings, burglaries, muggings. All of it people with guns.
“If you’re characterizing things that way, that is very concerning.”
I’m a woman, so yeah anonny, I “characterize” it that way.
For women, there are “safe” areas and neighborhoods. Even “safe” streets. All women know them. Places we know we can walk home in the dark (yes, even at 6 pm in the winter) and we will be “safe.” Or relatively so.
And yes, we’ve been told that walking in a group is usually “safe” as well.
But not anymore.
“Society has been collapsing for several months. There are no rules now.
The carjackings and shoplifting incidents in the Gold Coast and on the Mag Mile have stepped up pace in the last week. Multiple luxury stores hit during the middle of the day. Multiple car jackings late at night. Muggings in Lakeview even if you’re in a pair of people and in what has formerly been a “safe” area.”
HD is that you? I recall Sabrina saying just two months ago this isn’t the 90’s and “crime happens” weird how her tune changes when it hits her neighborhood….
“For women, there are “safe” areas and neighborhoods. Even “safe” streets. All women know them. Places we know we can walk home in the dark (yes, even at 6 pm in the winter) and we will be “safe.” Or relatively so.”
What about the women that don’t live in the “safe” areas and neighborhoods? Or was this comment only intended for the upper middle class white woman?
Is wine night with the ladies having to change to brunch with mimosas? Oh the travesty….
“If you’re so nervous, just sell your place and rent somewhere for a year or two and see what happens.”
This might have broader application
“How do you stop it?”
Punishing violent criminals might be a start!
Oh wait thats racist or something because of the bigotry of low expectations the idiot left loves to trot out
“I’m a woman, so yeah anonny, I “characterize” it that way.”
What you wrote – how you’re characterizing the conditions in some of Chicago’s most expensive areas to live – is quite a departure from the usual narrative. You’re usually characterizing Chicago as an urban paradise where one must buy-now-or-be-priced out forever, but your characterization above reads like a description of Mogadishu. Does one need to drive an armored vehicle around to see the impossibly tight housing inventory only to be outbid every time? Have an armed escort to safely walk to the offices that everyone simply cannot wait to return to?
apropos of Nonny:
“What would cause it to lose 30% of its value within just a few months?”
Maybe it would be:
“Society has been collapsing for several months. There are no rules now.”
Hmmm??
“What you wrote – how you’re characterizing the conditions in some of Chicago’s most expensive areas to live – is quite a departure from the usual narrative. You’re usually characterizing Chicago as an urban paradise where one must buy-now-or-be-priced out forever, but your characterization above reads like a description of Mogadishu. Does one need to drive an armored vehicle around to see the impossibly tight housing inventory only to be outbid every time? Have an armed escort to safely walk to the offices that everyone simply cannot wait to return to?”
I think she’s one of those shitty house flippers in Bronzeville/HP/Kenwood thats trying to gin up interest to the South
For those stuck to the North I offer – https://www.armormax.com/armored-cars/bulletproof-mercedes-s-560/
“I think she’s one of those shitty house flippers in Bronzeville/HP/Kenwood thats trying to gin up interest to the South”
Everyone can read the news for EVERY major city right now.
Crime is up everywhere.
People are being robbed in the middle of the tourist zones in Times Square, Hollywood and in Chicago, in River North/Mag Mile/Viagra Triangle. Someone was just carjacked in New Orleans French Quarter.
Shootings, stabbings, carjackings are up in every city.
An offshoot of the pandemic? No one seems to know why the violence has exploded but obviously the pandemic is the starting point.
It’s beyond my job description to know how to stop it. The mayors have a big task ahead of them.
“Maybe it would be:”
“Society has been collapsing for several months. There are no rules now.”
“Hmmm??”
Why would this “collapse” home prices in the span of several months???
I don’t see them collapsing in San Francisco, which everyone has said is a shit show right now with high crime and social problems. Neither in Los Angeles. Neither in San Diego.
Neither in New York or New Orleans.
For crime to cause a price decline, it would probably be over several YEARS as home owners threw in the towel, sick living on edge, and decide to start leaving in big numbers.
As I keep saying: price declines are caused by an increase in inventory. Inventory at 2 or 3 months isn’t going to cause prices to fall.
Thousands of homes will have to come on the market for prices to be pressured.
“Does one need to drive an armored vehicle around to see the impossibly tight housing inventory only to be outbid every time?”
Apparently the answer is “yes.”
In every city right now.
“What you wrote – how you’re characterizing the conditions in some of Chicago’s most expensive areas to live – is quite a departure from the usual narrative.”
I am a parent with kids living in these hot neighborhoods in this city.
That shooting in Fulton Market really hit me hard.
I’m sorry that the rest of you “don’t get it.” But what is going on is not okay. Hasn’t been for a while now, but this shooting, in particular, has hit home. My kids routinely ride in Ubers to visit their girlfriends/boyfriends.
“Punishing violent criminals might be a start!”
Plenty of this is going on. Do you think no one is going to jail sonies? Really? Grow up. They are.
But that’s not stopping it.
“What about the women that don’t live in the “safe” areas and neighborhoods? Or was this comment only intended for the upper middle class white woman?”
Excuse me WP. Plenty of non-white women living in Lakeview. Grow up.
We were talking about Lakeview and knowing where to walk and what is “safe”. The streets I used to consider “safe” for a woman, or two, to walk home after work in the dark now no longer are apparently. Muggings happening even in areas considered to be “safe.”
Women in other neighborhoods ALSO know where to walk. It doesn’t matter your neighborhood, dude. But you’re a clueless man. There are some streets in Lakeview that ALL women know are “shady” and we avoid. Same with Lincoln Park. Same with the Gold Coast. Same with River North. And on and on.
I have a friend who lived in the South Shore. Her neighbors literally gave her the directions on how she could walk to the Walgreens “safely”. Needless to say, she followed their advice.
Sorry but I can’t remember if I shared this already or not. I looked at carjackings recently: https://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2021/09/chicago-carjackings-hit-record-high/
While aggravated assault and battery is really not up carjackings are way up. And only 5.4% of the cases result in arrest. Recently read that,apparently, the reason is that nobody can identify the perps.
“Recently read that,apparently, the reason is that nobody can identify the perps.”
Aren’t they just abandoning the car a few hours later?
Impossible to catch them. Many are wearing masks as well.
“I am a parent with kids living in these hot neighborhoods in this city.
That shooting in Fulton Market really hit me hard.
I’m sorry that the rest of you “don’t get it.” But what is going on is not okay.”
It’s not a matter of not “getting it.” I just can’t reconcile a place being both a “hot” market (super desirable place to be and difficult to buy in) and being a lawless, post-apocalyptic warzone.
The conditions you’ve described are not the case everywhere. It *could* happen *anywhere*, but it is not the case *everywhere*. I wouldn’t visit a place that resembles what you’re describing and I wouldn’t stay living somewhere, not for one day longer, that resembles what you’re describing. So, either the market is by no means hot, or the situation on the ground is not quite as brutal as described.
“Impossible to catch them. Many are wearing masks as well.”
Not impossible, just against policy.
The risk is extremely low that anyone will get caught, much less suffer any consequences.
“It’s not a matter of not “getting it.” I just can’t reconcile a place being both a “hot” market (super desirable place to be and difficult to buy in) and being a lawless, post-apocalyptic warzone.
The conditions you’ve described are not the case everywhere. It *could* happen *anywhere*, but it is not the case *everywhere*. I wouldn’t visit a place that resembles what you’re describing and I wouldn’t stay living somewhere, not for one day longer, that resembles what you’re describing. So, either the market is by no means hot, or the situation on the ground is not quite as brutal as described.”
Covid and DJT has broken some peoples brains.
People like Sabrina have had their heads buried in the sand for a while wrt crime and where the city is heading. With her ilk, as long as it was confined to minority/poor areas it wasnt an issue and to a certain extent it wasnt. Shitbirds didnt play their fuck-fuck games in the UMC/Tourist areas. Now thats not the case and the same ilk is freaking out. Id guess that these same people are ones that wear masks outside
The city is reaping what it sowed
“I just can’t reconcile a place being both a “hot” market (super desirable place to be and difficult to buy in) and being a lawless, post-apocalyptic warzone.”
Bingo. It’s straight out of 70s-era dire future movies.
Curious as to whether all car theft is up or just carjackings. Are criminals resorting to a more violent form of theft because less confrontational avenues for theft are unavailable?
Like, fewer people are going out and parking in lots/garages/on the street, so fewer cars are parked ‘in public”?
Greater safety measures on newer cars make it more difficult to steal a parked, locked car?
I don’t know, carjacking just seems a lot riskier than stealing a parked car, so why are more criminals using that method?
Also, is carjacking classified as a violent crime? Or only if a weapon is used?
Carjacking is classified as a robbery. Not sure there is a “violent crime” classification per se. For instance, there is battery and there is assault, either of which can be aggravated or not. Then there is homicide.
“Aren’t they just abandoning the car a few hours later?”
I read that they are actually catching people with the stolen vehicles but they can’t charge them because they can’t prove that they are the ones that stole the car. Can’t find the article. I think it was one of the local TV stations that reported that.
“I read that they are actually catching people with the stolen vehicles but they can’t charge them because they can’t prove that they are the ones that stole the car.”
That’s something that could be fixed with legislation, if it is true.
There is also the fact that many of the perps are minors, and we’re a little soft on teen crime right now.
Stealing cars is an urban teen fad that seems to come and go. I remember in the early 90s, car jacking was a big thing. There was even a classic hood movie about it, New Jersey Drive. They do it for the thrill and to a lesser degree to have getaway vehicles for other crimes like shootings.
Generally, I think the police can only charge someone with possession of a stolen item if they can’t prove they stole it. Any kid will have the “I bought it from a crackhead’ story ready to explain them being in a stolen car…
“New Jersey Drive”
Had never heard of it, so went to imdb. The summary includes this:
“The trouble starts when they steal a police car and the cops launch a violent offensive that involves beating and even shooting suspects.”
Yes, that’s when the trouble *starts*.
Anon, some people aren’t too adept at understanding cause and effect…
Jason and Midget are two young, black teenagers living in Newark,New Jersey, the unofficial car theft capital of the world. Their favourite pastime is that of everybody in their neighbourhood: stealing cars and joyriding. The trouble starts when they steal a police car and the cops launch a violent offensive that involves beating and even shooting suspects.
Really? When did this start? Everyone knows it started May 31, 2020, when 18 people were killed in Chicago in a 24 hours period, the most murders in one day since Chicago started keeping records in 1961.
https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime/2020/6/8/21281998/chicago-deadliest-day-violence-murder-history-police-crime
Why is it happening? The answer is obvious too: Both police and prosecutors have been purposely soft on crime since May 31, 2020. Cops don’t want to end up famous and/or in prison for having a bad interaction with a perp and prosecutors are refusing to charge crimes because social justice.
Crime had been falling for a full generation since 1990′ through May 31, 2020. It’s been quite the debate in sociology circles for decades as researchers ham-fistedly tried to explain away the decline in crime on abortion legalization, or banning lead in gasoline, or the gentrification of cities, to all sorts of other crazy ideas.
But answer came quite clear to anyone who was paying attention that on May 31, 2020, both police and prosecutors decided to stop punishing crime. Crime exploded overnight and has remained at elevated levels for 18 months now straight in nearly every major metro area. Austin, Columbus OH and Milwaukee have recorded record murders in 2021 and these are just the three I can remember off the top of my head.
Crime is everywhere. There are burglary crews are roaming the suburbs now too in record numbers. You don’t read about this in the news media but you can put it together reading local newspaper police reports. I recently caught people on my extensive CCTV system scoping – on two separate occasions last month – trespassing onto my property trying to break into my residence. I provided the evidence to my local police who said burglary crews are everywhere like never before. And when police catch them, the local prosecutors release them from jail the same day, and charges are mostly dropped too. Police and prosecutors won’t even bring deterrence charges against potential burglars for trespassing.
Things are going to get a lot worse before they get better too. Our local state’s attorney won’t suddenly say “Ooops! My bad!” and reverse course on her social justice agenda. She’s doubled down on her mandate in the face of objective failure.
Chicago is headed back to the 1970’s and 1990’s level crime, just as most other major US cities are experiencing. The 1970’s were bad for sure but we are not Detriot. The Sears Tower was built in the 1970’s, and we had a thriving 1980’s. Even during the crime waves of the 1990’s, the green zone in Chicago came into its own and Bucktown, Wicker Park, LP, Lakeview, west loop, etc, began their gentrified revivals during a time that there were over 800 murder a year for most of the decade.
The reality is that the suburban, exurban, and vacation lifestyle are booming at the expense of the urban areas. I personally know three people in the last few months who’ve paid extremely inflated prices for vacation homes in Michigan as their primary leisure activity, whereas they used to be urban dwellers visiting theater, restaurants and shopping. Now their weekends are going to be spent on the boat on the lake, entertaining friends and family, and visiting the local fudge shoppe.
And now as we as a nation are getting older, we have little interest in returning to the city, or even the office in the city now, and we as a society are collectively moving forward in life. Sure, next generation, our children may return to the city again, like SOHO or Lincoln Park in the 1960’s, but for the time being, it’s going to be quite the fall off the edge of the cliff, and no one is sure how far away the bottom is. We’ve seen glimpses of the future of Chicago – the cold blooded murder of the parents at the parade a few months back, and video of the cold blooded murder of the ‘neutron’ at the downtown celebration a few weeks ago (with cars driving on sidewalks through downtown, and hundreds of cars driving the wrong way on the expressways), and the driving shootouts in the west loop, and two nights ago in North Center, are a merely glimpse at the true horrors that await our next mayor in 2023.
Agreed. We’re soft on “teen” crime right now so that emboldens them to disregard the law. Those in charge are pretty clear that it is “racist” to act any other way. So I only expect things to get worse in areas with a high “teen” population.
Carjacking is a federal crime:
https://www.justice.gov/archives/jm/criminal-resource-manual-1110-carjacking-statute
The federal penalties for carjacking are harsh with years long prison sentences.
The word on the street is now that the feds are actually out there on the ground going after hot cars and their drivers because Lori has completely abandoned her duty to prosecute the offenders. The criminals may walk out of 26th and Cal the same day after car jacking someone but they’re going to be well secured in the MCC for months if not years to come. The feds don’t reject felony charges for nonsensical ‘lack of evidence’ (as if car jacking is somehow the perfect crime now) they play for reals.
Of note, the car jacking statute dates back to 1992 like Russ above said, that car jacking was a thing in the 1990’s
“Lori has completely abandoned her duty to prosecute the offenders”
C’mon! Lori has no more authority to prosecute anyone than you do, HD.
She *is* abdicating her responsibility as Mayor to beat the shit out of the State’s Attorney every day until the State’s Attorney has her staff prosecuting offenders. And Kenny Boy called it out earlier today.
Sorry, kim foxx, not lori, that was a typo that I should have edited before I hit submit.
Sorry HD, but the CPD stopped enforcement on a lot of minor crime much earlier, after the Laquan McDonald killing. It may have not been noticeable in a lot of the city, but that’s when it started.
“Sorry HD, but the CPD stopped enforcement on a lot of minor crime much earlier, after the Laquan McDonald killing. It may have not been noticeable in a lot of the city, but that’s when it started.”
That’s possible and there’s certainly an argument for that could be articulated in a forum other than the comments section in a Chicago real estate blog. But I like the May 31 2020 date because there is a clear demarcation between before May 31 and after May 31. We are currently living after May 31 and will be so for, if I had to guess, the rest of the decade. All of the underlying ingredients for a decade long violent crime extravaganza are present and won’t suddenly disappear even if we magically got a ‘tough on crime’ prosecutor. The crews looting high end stores on Michigan Ave aren’t suddenly going to go legit and work for Amazon when the retail closes up and moves to Oak Brook for good. The blight will just provide for additional opportunities for crime.
“And Kenny Boy called it out earlier today”
He laid into Gov Fatfuck. I’m sure Fatty is shitting in his size 58 extra short pants.
Looks like we might have a battle of the Billionaires
Yay?
“All of the underlying ingredients for a decade long violent crime extravaganza are present and won’t suddenly disappear even if we magically got a ‘tough on crime’ prosecutor. The crews looting high end stores on Michigan Ave aren’t suddenly going to go legit and work for Amazon when the retail closes up and moves to Oak Brook for good. The blight will just provide for additional opportunities for crime.”
LOL
The writing has been on the wall for years. Portlandia meets the Wire
Welcome to the Chicago THUNDERDOME.
https://twitter.com/CWBChicago/status/1445124776742227980
Chicago violence: Prosecutors reject charges in deadly gang-related Austin shooting
There is an outcry from the mayor and some Chicago aldermen after men linked by police to a deadly gang shootout in Austin last week were released from custody. Prosecutors declined to charge each of them with a pair of felonies, including first-degree murder.
The mid-morning gunfight, which left one shooter dead and two of the suspects wounded, stemmed from an internal dispute between two gang factions, the Chicago Sun-Times reported.
New video from city pod cameras shows what police say is two people pulling up and opening fire at an Austin home. They ducked for cover as the people inside fired back. One person was killed and two others were hurt in the shootout. Three people were arrested.
Police sought to charge all suspects with murder and aggravated battery. By Sunday morning, a Chicago police spokeswoman acknowledged the suspects had “been released without charges.”
https://abc7chicago.com/chicago-shooting-violence-austin-police/11079879/
Seriously. Do you guys think this is good for housing prices?
“What would cause it to lose 30% of its value within just a few months?”
A 30% loss of value “within just a few months” is uncommon. But prices can fall, like this Trump Tower condo which fell 18% over 8 years:
sold May 2013 = 850k
sold March 2019 = 715k
sold Aug 2021 = 695k
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/401-N-Wabash-Ave-60611/unit-34L/home/13142978
This LSD condo, also in a recently profiled CC building, fell 37% over 6 years.
sold June 2015 = $1.27m
sold Aug 2021 = $815k
So Jenny’s concern about meaningful price decline has warrant imo.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1040-N-Lake-Shore-Dr-60611/unit-26B/home/14123923
Rodkin reports Juanita Jordan sold her River North home.
bot June 2007 = $4.7 m
sold Oct 2021 = $4.5 m
Given her hood’s massive upgrade over the last 14 years she can’t be happy scratching the trade, esp. since she was one of the hood’s pioneering settlers.
Check out her property taxes
2007 = 33,549
2008 = 55,829
2018 = 129,515
2019 = 97,036
2020 = 89,792
If you start with 2007 and end with 2018, her prop taxes grew 13.1% per annum. (Ouch!) But if you use 2008 and 2020, her taxes grew only 4% per annum. (What a relief.) Kudos to her for wisely taking the homeowner’s exemption, reducing her 2020 taxes by $691.10.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/451-W-Superior-St-60654/unit-2/home/12715494
“Bingo. It’s straight out of 70s-era dire future movies.”
Oh man. So many memorable (prescient?) scenes from Travis Bickle, Snake Plissken, and (New Trier Shakespearian) Astronaut George Taylor:
https://youtu.be/ZWphqA1Slrw?t=54s
“If you start with 2007”
Was that 2007, pay ’08? Or ’07 pay, which is really ’06 value? Even if the former, the place was vacant for 5/12s, the adjustment for which makes it basically flat for the ’08 number.
That 2018 tax amount implies a value north of $7m.
“scenes from Travis Bickle”
Some day a real rain will come…
“Too much sitting has ruined my body. Too much abuse has gone on for too long. From now on it’ll be 50 pushups each morning.”
————
Let’s say Juanita’s taxes grew 4% pa over 13 years, that’s lower than many others, but still about 200 basis points higher than CPI for that period.
And, beginning with tax year 2021, Lightfoot indexed her property tax levy to CPI. She wrote recently:
“The increase in the 2022 property tax levy over 2021 is $76.5 million which is due to previously approved increases for debt service and consumer price index (CPI) [increases]…. The CPI increase was calculated utilizing the December 2019 to December 2020 CPI rate of 1.4 percent.”
https://www.chicago.gov/content/dam/city/depts/obm/supp_info/2022Budget/2022OverviewFINAL.pdf#page=65
With CPI currently running north of 5% YoY, 3x her quoted rate, and since the County usually charges one- or two-hundred bps more than CPI, I predict many unhappy PIN owners.
“With CPI currently running north of 5% YoY, 3x her quoted rate, and since the County usually charges one- or two-hundred bps more than CPI, I predict many unhappy PIN owners.”
All things being equal this would be correct BUT your analysis doesn’t consider the impacts of the city’s reassessment currently going on which should materially blunt the impact of the CPI increase unless the Board of Review overturns the higher assessments Kaegi is putting on Commercial and Apartment owners compared to homeowners.
” All of the underlying ingredients for a decade long violent crime extravaganza are present and won’t suddenly disappear even if we magically got a ‘tough on crime’ prosecutor.”
Local and State “leaders” are starting to change their tune we will see if it actually changes policy as the violent crime is starting to impact them directly.
– Dick Durbin and his wife were driving on LSD (sorry Dusable LSD) last weekend when the car next to them opened fired
– Toni Preckwinkles personal security detail had to shoot six shots at people attempting to carjack him outside of her home 2 weeks ago
– Lightfoot and Alderman publicly calling out Foxx for declining all charges and labeling that shootout in Austin “mutual combatant” this week
– Ken Griffin saying his driver was carjacked outside of Ken’s Chicago condo over the summer and a separate incident were there were bullet holes in the first floor of that same condo building. His most noteworthy take was crime in the city is making it harder for Citadel to recruit talent to Chicago thus believing he will move headquarters in the coming years
– Pritzker yesterday saying Chicago is “nearly at a State of Emergency” when it comes to crime.
– State Republicans (potentially national too) 22 campaign theme will be hitting Pritzker and Dems on crime
– Oh yeah there’s been at least three alderman in the past year who have been victims of violent crimes (Cappleman, Reilly, and Lopez)
We will see what (if anything) occurs. Certainly not holding my breathe on it though.
“Dusable LSD”
I see a marketing opportunity there…not a *legal* one, but still.
“labeling that shootout in Austin “mutual combatant””
So, it sounds like Kim is okay with people shooting at someone(s), so long as they expect the intended victim(s) to shoot back, and they in fact do?
Sounds very “Texas” to me.
“Pritzker yesterday saying Chicago is “nearly at a State of Emergency” when it comes to crime.”
In the third week of July, other than (1) seeing more rats in the daytime than I’ve ever seen (anywhere) and (2) every single restaurant we went to being packed with customers but running on about half the staff (and much of that half being newer/younger/less experienced folks), I found Chicago to be just fine. Better than fine. Have things really gotten as bad as the IL governor, Sabrina, Republicans everywhere, and many posters on here, say?
“Have things really gotten as bad as the IL governor, Sabrina, Republicans everywhere, and many posters on here, say?”
Feels a lot like the mid-90s in some ways. So, kinda maybe?
“Feels a lot like the mid-90s in some ways. So, kinda maybe?”
Well, at least then one could catch Shellac playing in Lincoln Park and the Bulls ruled the world.
“ Feels a lot like the mid-90s in some ways. So, kinda maybe?”
Don’t remember the GZ (fringes maybe/Cabrini) experiencing VC at this level.
“ “Have things really gotten as bad as the IL governor, Sabrina, Republicans everywhere, and many posters on here, say?””
It’s affecting UMC Whites, can’t have that.
The poors/minorities are on there own
I just posted my September update. Sales barely surpassed last year though the IAR will report that sales came in lower: https://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2021/10/chicago-real-estate-market-update-highest-september-sales-in-15-years/
Inventory remains really low and market times really fast.
Chicago is really bad right now. However, we are not yet at 1990’s levels. We are trending in that direction but still far short of the decades long crack cocaine fueled mayhem of the 1990’s.
Crime seems worse that it is (and don’t get me wrong, crime is bad and getting worse) because crime has spiked significantly in neighborhoods that used to be some of the safest in the city. There are many high profile cases giving the perception that crime is out of control.
Our political leaders are all behaving like they have no solutions. For the past 18 months our leaders – Lori, JB, Kim, Tim, Tom & Toni – have looked like bumbling incompetent clowns.
They believed that social justice was the answer to all of society’s ills and that dutifully applying the principles of Ibrahim X Kendi and Robin DiAngelo would lead to a better, more equitable and prosperous city for everyone.
But just COVID-19 lock downs failed to stop the spread of coronavirus and left a trail of destruction in its wake, so too has the ideology of social justice made the daily life of residents of Cook County much, much worse. They’re all now pointing fingers at each other, with JB recently throwing Lori under the bus saying that Chicago is nearly in a state of emergency. Primary season is coming up and they all hope to deflect blame long enough to survive until the generals.
The sad part is that candidates in the primaries will offer more of the same failed policies. They’ll blame Lori and say that she didn’t defund the police enough, or that midnight basketball is the answer to gangland shootings, or that we need more low income housing for our poorest residents, and of course the familiar call for higher taxes, and probably naming a few more landmarks, and city ownership of private utilities, and more UBI, and so on.
“ “Pritzker yesterday saying Chicago is “nearly at a State of Emergency” when it comes to lack of Hostess snack cakes”
Fixed it for you
“Don’t remember the GZ (fringes maybe/Cabrini) experiencing VC at this level.”
What were the boundaries of the GZ in 1994? Jackson? w to Halsted, N to Grand, back over to Wells or Lasalle even, to North, back W to Clybourn, up to *maybe* Ashland, and then up to Irving (fine, Montrose, but then back down Clark to Grace), to the Lake. Plus some pockets. And I think that’s generous.
Mag Mile closed at 6 (or was it 6:30?) except on Thursday. The Loop was ghostly, evenings and weekends.
Have things really gotten as bad as the IL governor, Sabrina, Republicans everywhere, and many posters on here, say?
I dunno. I walked home from the el at 10:30 last night, and felt… ok. As ok as a woman walking alone in the city can feel. I live in boystown (sorry, northalsted), which I’ve heard is a crime-ridden hellscape.
They believed that social justice was the answer to all of society’s ills and that dutifully applying the principles of Ibrahim X Kendi and Robin DiAngelo would lead to a better, more equitable and prosperous city for everyone.
Which “social justice” policies did Chicago implement, exactly? (Not some vague bullshit about how “cops are afraid to do their jobs* b/c protests”, or whatever)
They’ll blame Lori and say that she didn’t defund the police enough
CPD’s budget is $1.7 Billion this year, up from $1.6 Billion in 2019, so how exactly were the police defunded? (2022 budget ups it to $1.9B)
*Literally the ONLY thing that cops have been held accountable for is killing unarmed civilians, so this argument implies that killing people is the part of the job they are unable to do.
Again, blame JB, blame Lightfoot, blame Kim Foxx…blame everybody except those who are responsible for “protecting and serving”.
“But just COVID-19 lock downs failed to stop the spread of coronavirus and left a trail of destruction in its wake”
People staying home slowed the spread of the virus. Otherwise we wouldn’t be having these waves. They are clearly behavior driven since we’re definitely not achieving herd immunity each time we get hit with a wave. Things get bad, people stay home, things get better, people go out. It should be clear by now that that the economic retrenchment occurs whether or not you “lockdown” because people stay home on their own. Even Sweden’s economy took a hit comparable to its neighbors. Just look at what’s been going on with leisure and travel. It’s not back to normal.
Gary
Think you’re basing this on yourself and those of a similar mindset
Are these the same waves that were going to cause mass deaths and overwhelm hospitals all across the country?
Why would travel be back to normal when the majority of the press is in we’re all going to die mode and many places people like to travel to are more restrictive than their home states
I’m basing this on the data. 1) Travel and leisure are down. How can “most” destinations be more restrictive than the rest of the country? 2) Events keep getting cancelled despite no government mandate to do so 3) People are working from home despite no government mandate. With that comes a reduction in services to support those folks.
On a separate note…hospitals did get overwhelmed. Did you miss the stories of patients having to wait hours for beds or being shipped off to other hospitals? Ask the healthcare workers who are exhausted.
If you don’t believe that people’s behaviors mattered then how do you explain that the virus strikes in waves? What made the waves go down?
“Travel and leisure are down. How can “most” destinations be more restrictive than the rest of the country?”
Restaurant data shows a slowdown in August and September likely due to the Delta variant.
Turns out, most humans WILL protect themselves, even if the restaurants remain open. Many decided to stay home during the latest outbreak.
But will we get the winter outbreak like last year?
Seems likely.
Michigan covid cases are rising sharply again, just like last year. There’s simply not enough people vaccinated. Chicago isn’t even at 60%. The Delta variant is going to spread easily throughout the Midwest over the next 3 months, unfortunately.
It didn’t have to be like this.
Such a tragedy.
“Are these the same waves that were going to cause mass deaths and overwhelm hospitals all across the country?”
Idaho hospitals remain overwhelmed in this latest wave. No space available there.
Thankfully, Florid and Texas cases have come down. That’s why we’re no longer seeing 2,000 deaths a day like we were a few weeks ago. Thank goodness.
But next wave is already here. Just like last year. Midwest is next.
“It should be clear by now that that the economic retrenchment occurs whether or not you “lockdown” because people stay home on their own.”
Yep. Hollywood was expecting bigger numbers for the new James Bond film than what they got this weekend.
Are movie goers nervous about COVID again?
One way to help the economy is to put in proof of vaccination requirements in places like theaters. You can have it on the theater app so that when you order tickets, it already knows you are vaccinated.
For those who care, Michigan COVID cases up 29% in the last 14 days and hospitalizations up 20%.
Chart going in the wrong direction. By Thanksgiving, it’s not going to be looking good in Michigan.
Just 61% fully vaccinated for those 12 and up.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/michigan-covid-cases.html
Here’s Idaho. It sounds terrible.
What we do know: As Idaho hospitals continue to be overrun with unvaccinated coronavirus patients, providers continue to reach out to health care facilities over state lines, and those patients face additional expenses for the out-of-state transfers. Meanwhile, Idaho has received some blowback for the stress its unvaccinated residents are putting on neighboring states.
In September, Dr. Stacey Good of Bonner General Health told Idaho Reports that the critical access hospital was having trouble finding beds for everyone who needed care in the pandemic, COVID-positive and otherwise. In normal times, Bonner can transfer patients to Kootenai Health in Coeur d’Alene or Sacred Heart in Spokane — both short drives from the Sandpoint hospital.
Now, as Kootenai Health continues to admit record-breaking numbers of COVID patients, those transfers are getting harder and harder to complete. “It is a long process. We’ve called up to six states, and 30 to 40 hospitals to try to find a bed for patients,” Good said.
Read more at: https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/coronavirus/article254873817.html#storylink=cpy
“I’m basing this on the data. 1) Travel and leisure are down. How can “most” destinations be more restrictive than the rest of the country?”
I said many, not most
The USVI, Canada are/were a PITA (Testing before entering, more mask restrictions, etc)
“2) Events keep getting cancelled despite no government mandate to do so”
What events?
“3) People are working from home despite no government mandate. With that comes a reduction in services to support those folks.”
For the first part, heaven forbid people prefer WFH (Both part and full time). Not sure what the second part of your statement concerns
“On a separate note…hospitals did get overwhelmed. Did you miss the stories of patients having to wait hours for beds or being shipped off to other hospitals? Ask the healthcare workers who are exhausted.”
Yeah, unfortunately thats not what you and Chicken Little were saying about the Hospitals. Granted SabrinaZ was 100X worse in her proclamations.
“If you don’t believe that people’s behaviors mattered then how do you explain that the virus strikes in waves? What made the waves go down?”
It ran thru the vulnerable hosts until R<1
Earlier this year the National Restaurant Association cancelled their convention. Recently the NY Auto Show cancelled. As did the North American Association of Food Equipment Manufacturers.
When people work from home they don’t go out for lunch. They don’t buy their morning coffee and they don’t get dry cleaning. It snowballs.
Don’t understand your comments about the hospitals. We said it was getting bad because it was getting bad.
“It ran thru the vulnerable hosts until R<1"
That doesn't make sense unless you believe we achieved herd immunity, which we didn't. If it had run through all the vulnerable hosts then it would never come back. But it does. R went below 1 because people changed their behavior. But that only lasts until people relax.
“What events?”
Dead & Co canceled its (sold-out) Florida shows, which were to have kicked off the fall tour. The promoter is clinging to nonsense “logistical” excuses (which have never impacted any incarnation of the band over more than a half century of the heaviest touring schedule of any band, ever), but it’s really about the anti-vax rules there.
“When people work from home they don’t go out for lunch. They don’t buy their morning coffee and they don’t get dry cleaning. It snowballs.”
It snowballs into what? There isn’t a Fast food/coffee shop/etc that isnt begging for labor. I had Jimmy Johns delivered last week. They’re offering $20/hr + tips for delivery (Have to have your own car). Bars and restaurants are closing because they cant get staff.
“Don’t understand your comments about the hospitals. We said it was getting bad because it was getting bad.”
Bad would have been one of the least hysterical descriptors
“That doesn’t make sense unless you believe we achieved herd immunity, which we didn’t. If it had run through all the vulnerable hosts then it would never come back. But it does. R went below 1 because people changed their behavior. But that only lasts until people relax.”
As the pool of individuals that are at risk decreases (Either thru Vax, antibodies or death) the window will become shorter/numbers will becrease
“Dead & Co canceled its (sold-out) Florida shows, which were to have kicked off the fall tour. The promoter is clinging to nonsense “logistical” excuses (which have never impacted any incarnation of the band over more than a half century of the heaviest touring schedule of any band, ever), but it’s really about the anti-vax rules there.”
So the event was cancelled by the band vice being shut down due to Covid?
“So the event was cancelled by the band vice being shut down due to Covid?”
My understanding is that it’s against the law in FL to ask for proof of vaccination, which is currently the band’s policy at all venues. (Given our 9-year old’s inability to satisfy this requirement, we’ve got Fiddler’s Green (yuck) extras available if you know anyone looking…)
Events keep getting cancelled despite no government mandate to do so
What events?
The Chicago Pride Parade (re-scheduled from June) was cancelled
New Orleans Jazzfest (re-scheduled from May) was cancelled
Burning Man was cancelled
“Bad would have been one of the least hysterical descriptors”
Having to move patients to 3 to 5 nearby states because there is no room at the hospitals in Idaho is not “hysterical”. It’s the reality.
I like how you’re gaslighting the crisis at the hospitals now. Rock on. Nothing to see, huh JohnnyU?
Our poor doctors, nurses and medical professionals. This all could have been avoided.
So sad.
“As the pool of individuals that are at risk decreases (Either thru Vax, antibodies or death) the window will become shorter/numbers will becrease”
We have 60 million unvaxxed. That’s a lot of hosts still to go through.
Meanwhile, the virus could mutate into a form that renders the vaccines worthless.
Good times.
“There isn’t a Fast food/coffee shop/etc that isnt begging for labor. I had Jimmy Johns delivered last week. They’re offering $20/hr + tips for delivery (Have to have your own car). Bars and restaurants are closing because they cant get staff.”
You can have a labor shortage and a drop in demand. https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/02/economy/remote-working-economy/index.html
“As the pool of individuals that are at risk decreases (Either thru Vax, antibodies or death) the window will become shorter/numbers will becrease”
Sounds like you believe we achieved herd immunity. If that’s what brought down the first wave then why did we have a second wave?
“You can have a labor shortage and a drop in demand”
Short term yes, most likely due to a mis-allocation of resources
The CNN article is crap and the SBUX is a real bad example. Their Q3 revenue was a record
“U.S. comparable store sales increased 83%, driven by an 80% increase in comparable transactions and a 1% increase in average ticket”
I dont know why you are failing to acknowledge that demand is high and labor short for a lot of retail and logistics.
“Sounds like you believe we achieved herd immunity. If that’s what brought down the first wave then why did we have a second wave?”
No, and dont start pulling a Sabrina
Again – the numbers of those at risk is signifigantly less now than it was for the initial outbreak. Mathematically speaking the pool of folks at risk is signifigantly less. If you dont believe that, you either dont believe that age/comorbidities didnt have an effect and Antibodies and vaccines dont work. Since the pool is smaller, the numbers and severity (peaks) will be less
“Again – the numbers of those at risk is signifigantly less now than it was for the initial outbreak.”
It doesn’t take much to overwhelm an ICU that only has 10 beds, as we’re seeing in Idaho and other rural areas with low vaccination rates.
90% is the level to reach “herd” where the hospitals aren’t at risk.
Lakeview is at 80% with 2 shots so it’s not even there yet.
And your arguments about obese people and the elderly being the only ones to be hospitalized just doesn’t play out as in some states, 85% of those over 65 are vaccinated yet the hospitals are still overwhelmed because it’s 30s, 40s and 50 year olds who are now in the hospitals.
No hospital is equipped for a mass ventilator event with dozens of people who have to be in the ICU at the same time for weeks. They just aren’t. Hence the vaccine mandates.
The whole point of lockdowns, mask wearing, quarantines and vaccines are to save the hospitals.
And you’re STILL gaslighting JohnnyU. How sad. This is why this country is in the shape it’s in right now. If only we were Norway and actually got the shot. But no.
Airlines are starting to cancel business flights again. Adding only leisure at this point.
International travel is nearly non-existent. United just canceled flights from San Francisco to Bentonville (aka Walmart) that it has run for years due to lack of demand. Also cancelled Calgary, St Louis and direct flights into Shanghai (have to fly through Seoul first.) All the cancellations are through February.
The global economy is not “re-open” yet. There aren’t enough vaccinated and people are still getting sick.
Like I said, another wave is already here in the Midwest. A school in Kane County just closed for 2 weeks after 37 students came down with COVID in the last 2 weeks. Michigan COVID cases are up significantly. They are going to have another big outbreak. Unfortunately.
Lots of people won’t be having a “normal” Thanksgiving for a second year in a row.
Hospitalizations doubling in the UP of Michigan.
63 now hospitalized there. It’s not a big urban area. Number of ICU beds available isn’t high.
https://www.uppermichiganssource.com/2021/10/11/coronavirus-upper-michigan-hospitalizations-double-over-last-month/
Michigan cases, as a whole, at their highest level since May. Hospitalizations are up statewide. 70% of those hospitalized are unvaccinated. 30%, however, are vaccinated. That’s a high level given what we’ve seen in other states.
Rapid testing kits are out of stock in Western Michigan now.
60% statewide are fully vaccinated.
If there was herd immunity, you wouldn’t be seeing another wave which will mimic that of the spring, when not as many were vaccinated. Delta spreads just so much more quickly and efficiently.
“I dont know why you are failing to acknowledge that demand is high and labor short for a lot of retail and logistics.”
I don’t know why you are failing to acknowledge that a significant drop in commuter traffic will have negative economic consequences for central business districts.
“Since the pool is smaller, the numbers and severity (peaks) will be less”
You didn’t answer my question. Go back to the first wave. No vaccines. What brought it down? Why did we have a second wave? What brought down the second wave and why did we have a third wave? If it’s the smaller pool of the vulnerable that brings down a wave then there shouldn’t be a subsequent wave.
“If it’s the smaller pool of the vulnerable that brings down a wave then there shouldn’t be a subsequent wave.”
Exactly Gary.
Just look at the waves in Michigan. Why is it having yet another which is just as severe as the last one even though more are vaccinated? The pool is much smaller this time around but you wouldn’t know there even WAS a vaccine based just on the number who have tested positive.
“ I don’t know why you are failing to acknowledge that a significant drop in commuter traffic will have negative economic consequences for central business districts.”
You’re pulling a Sabrina here
You posted “ You can have a labor shortage and a drop in demand.” – which is not what we have.
So now it’s central business districts? Great move the resources to where they’re needed, like I said
“ If it’s the smaller pool of the vulnerable that brings down a wave then there shouldn’t be a subsequent wave.”
That’s not true and you (should) know it
“That’s not true and you (should) know it”
Nice deflection. No I don’t know it. Explain it to me. Look at Illinois. Early Feb cases are around 3000 per day and falling. Yet by mid-March they are on the rise again, surpassing 3000 per day by early April. The vulnerable population did not increase in the interim so what happened?
“The vulnerable population did not increase in the interim so what happened?”
Crisis actors, duh.
It’s all a false flag–the people dying aren’t actually americans at all.
“Nice deflection. No I don’t know it. Explain it to me. Look at Illinois. Early Feb cases are around 3000 per day and falling. Yet by mid-March they are on the rise again, surpassing 3000 per day by early April. The vulnerable population did not increase in the interim so what happened?”
Vice
“ If it’s the smaller pool of the vulnerable that brings down a wave then there shouldn’t be a subsequent wave.”
are you saying that these 2 statements are the same? Vary Sabrina like
As for your current statement. No deflection (Again very Sabrina-esque) Peak deaths were about 150/day on a 7 day moving average. Peak in May (Using this peak based upon your claim) was about 30/day 7 Day moving average. I’d say thats a non-trivial reduction based upon less at risk folks due to age/comorbidity, vax & antibodies, in line with what I posted.
Hope this helped
“Peak deaths were about 150/day on a 7 day moving average. Peak in May (Using this peak based upon your claim) was about 30/day 7 Day moving average.”
What are peak deaths over the past ~month? Peak was over 50, no? With ~2/3s more Illinoisans vaxed in Sept v May.
40 on the 7 day moving average (Just to keep things consistent)
And yes – higher than the May 7DayMO peak.
You’re not answering the question. Of course the two peaks were different for all kinds of reasons. But the question remains unanswered. How can you have a subsequent wave with a vulnerable population that is certainly no bigger than it was previously? What is different between the two time periods that causes increasing transmission?
“40 on the 7 day moving average”
47 on Sept 17, 18 and 19 for 7-day. (Sept 13 7-day was 51, but may have been anomalous).
May 20 was spring peak at 35.
1/3 higher, with about half as many (adults–who are effectively the only ones dying) unvaxed.
“You’re not answering the question.”
He can’t answer it.
Because if he did, he’d have to admit his “logic” about the virus is wrong and doesn’t work.
“47 on Sept 17, 18 and 19 for 7-day. (Sept 13 7-day was 51, but may have been anomalous).
May 20 was spring peak at 35.”
Are you using – https://dph.illinois.gov/covid19
For 7DMA
May peak 32 May 15
Sept peak 41 Sept 17
1/3 higher, with about half as many (adults–who are effectively the only ones dying) unvaxed.
“How can you have a subsequent wave with a vulnerable population that is certainly no bigger than it was previously? What is different between the two time periods that causes increasing transmission?”
Population exposure
OK? But that’s my point. If I understand your answer correctly. Why would the population exposure be greater heading into the second wave than leaving the first wave? Only because behavior is changing.
Once you morons (and the MSM) realize that the vaccine is nowhere nearly as effective as advertised, the next “story” will be “severe flu cases on the rise” “flu is back” “influenza panic” because they can’t blame the lack of effectiveness on the vaccines of course with people still getting sick…
Dec 31st the hospitals on a CDC recommendation will stop using PCR tests that can’t determine between the flu and Covid so expect numbers to plummet once they start using actual tests that isolate covid only and “flu” numbers to skyrocket, because the flu just didn’t disappear last year… it is still around!
“Burning Man was cancelled”
lol tell that to the 25k people that showed up to the playa anyway over labor day weekend
“We have 60 million unvaxxed. That’s a lot of hosts still to go through. ”
The vaccine does not stop transmission. This has been noted numerous times. People with natural immunity are far less of a threat than a vaccinated person believe it or not
“The vulnerable population did not increase in the interim so what happened?”
I suggest you go take a look at Singapore or Israel’s case numbers… (hint, cases are exploding) they are two of the highest vaccinated countries in the world!
I suggest you go take a look at Singapore or Israel’s case numbers
Old news about Israel. Cases are declining dramatically: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/covid-in-israel-new-serious-cases-drop-60-in-three-weeks-1.10286797
[q]Roughly 15 percent of Israelis 12 and over who are eligible for the vaccine have never been vaccinated. But they accounted for 70 percent of deaths over the past week.[/q]
“ OK? But that’s my point. If I understand your answer correctly. Why would the population exposure be greater heading into the second wave than leaving the first wave? Only because behavior is changing.”
It was a bit of a flippant answer. Without getting pretty granular with county/city data, it would be tough to make the claim – was thinking small rural towns w/o folks venturing in/out
If the Delta strain was more transmittable, it would provide additional exposures with all things being equal
“I suggest you go take a look at Singapore or Israel’s case numbers… (hint, cases are exploding) they are two of the highest vaccinated countries in the world!”
Yes, Singapore’s cases have exploded higher since they reopened society in August. Vaccination doesn’t mean “cure” or “immunity.” It means you won’t end up hospitalized or severely ill. Singapore is 81% fully vaccinated so their hospitals are not over run and their death rates are low.
They’ve basically decided to “live with it”- like the flu- in order to get society reopened. I’m sure that in big outbreaks, in schools, offices etc., that they probably shut down and do a 2 week quarantine to slow the outbreak.
The UK is at this point too. We will see how bad its winter outbreaks are but they have high levels of vaccination now as well. 67% fully vaccinated.
Only the US lags in vaccinations. We could have been on our way to “living with it” but we aren’t because of the misleading propaganda and info about it that continues to circulate among certain circles of the population.
Chicago’s positivity rate just hit 2% again. There is very little of the virus circulating here. Our vaccination rate is just 58% however. Masks and behavioral changes are working, for now. But I fear a big winter outbreak as Chicagoans gather for Thanksgiving and Christmas indoors.
“The vaccine does not stop transmission. This has been noted numerous times. People with natural immunity are far less of a threat than a vaccinated person believe it or not”
Your antibodies are stronger with the vaccine, and also last longer, than those who have had COVID. That’s why they recommend those who have had it to still get the vaccine.
“Once you morons (and the MSM) realize that the vaccine is nowhere nearly as effective as advertised, the next “story” will be “severe flu cases on the rise” “flu is back” “influenza panic” because they can’t blame the lack of effectiveness on the vaccines of course with people still getting sick…”
Huh?
Everyone knows that the flu vaccines don’t “stop” the flu. Are you a doctor now Sonies? Are you here to tell us vaccines are worthless even though they have saved millions of lives in the last 100 years?
Get over yourself.
COVID illness isn’t going to go away. The 1918 flu never did either. Shingles isn’t going to either. And neither is malaria. But the vaccines can help the most vulnerable and they WILL save lives.
“Once you morons (and the MSM) realize that the vaccine is nowhere nearly as effective as advertised”
What alternative universe do you live in? The data is clear that something like 90%+ of the hospitalizations and deaths are among the unvaccinated. I think it’s clear who the real morons are.
“If the Delta strain was more transmittable, it would provide additional exposures with all things being equal”
The Delta variant was less than 10% of the cases in the US until like mid-May. My example is March/ early April.
“Your antibodies are stronger with the vaccine, and also last longer, than those who have had COVID. That’s why they recommend those who have had it to still get the vaccine.”
Wrong. From a month ago in the Washington Post:
“More than 15 studies have demonstrated the power of immunity acquired by previously having the virus. A 700,000-person study from Israel two weeks ago found that those who had experienced prior infections were 27 times less likely to get a second symptomatic covid infection than those who were vaccinated. This affirmed a June Cleveland Clinic study of health-care workers (who are often exposed to the virus), in which none who had previously tested positive for the coronavirus got reinfected. The study authors concluded that “individuals who have had SARS-CoV-2 infection are unlikely to benefit from covid-19 vaccination.” And in May, a Washington University study found that even a mild covid infection resulted in long-lasting immunity.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/09/15/natural-immunity-vaccine-mandate/
Its too bad the lack of honesty in our leadership means many (most?) people have so many misconceptions about covid, all in the name of selling the vaccine mandate.
Too bad no one reads the national news these days.
Serious outbreaks with hospitals at capacity in:
Idaho
Wyoming
Montana
North Dakota
Minnesota is now next. Unfortunately. Ugh.
“Intensive care units are nearing capacity and health care workers are in short supply in Minnesota, as coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths all reach levels not seen since vaccines became widely available.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/13/world/minnesota-hospitals-capacity-virus-surge.html
Wisconsin and Michigan are heading in the wrong direction as well.
For some unknown reason, Illinois cases are actually on the decline again. Not sure why we aren’t seeing the gains in cases like our nearby neighbors, but I expect that to change in the next few weeks.
So sad. It didn’t have to be like this.
Minnesota is one of the rate states that releases breakthrough case statistics. And the data being reported in the past few weeks is grim. Roughly one-third of all new cases are ‘breakthrough’ cases and increasing. Roughly one-third of all hospital admissions are breakthrough cases and increasing. And more than one-third of all deaths are from breakthrough deaths and increasing faster than non-breakthrough deaths. And this is in a state with 73% of the eligible population aged 12 and older receiving at least one dose of any vaccine. The anecdotal evidence I’ve seen is that breakthrough severe cases and deaths are mostly the same demographics that would get sick without the vaccine. Which may indicate vaccine failure or waning protection. The Minnesota data is a leading indicator as to vaccine efficacy and we’ll all keep a close eye on these figures to see if breakthrough cases and deaths start to outpace non-breakthrough cases.
“I’m sure that in big outbreaks, in schools, offices etc., that [Singapore] probably shut down and do a 2 week quarantine to slow the outbreak.”
Really, are you sure? Why?
It’s not like Singapore doesn’t publish *exactly* what the rules are:
https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/stabilising-our-covid-19-situation-and-protecting-our-overall-healthcare-capacity_24September2021
They tightened back up a little bit on *everyone*. Because they can, without fear of a-holes making stupid threats.
“Minnesota … data being reported in the past few weeks is grim.”
I went looking for this…cite, please?
“It’s not like Singapore doesn’t publish *exactly* what the rules are:”
I didn’t look anon (tfo). Given that they’ve kept their country closed to the outside world for over a year and don’t allow you to chew gum, then, yeah, I’m assuming on bigger outbreaks that more strict rules kick in.
“Roughly one-third of all new cases are ‘breakthrough’ cases and increasing. Roughly one-third of all hospital admissions are breakthrough cases and increasing. And more than one-third of all deaths are from breakthrough deaths and increasing faster than non-breakthrough deaths.”
This makes no sense HD. Why would Minnesota be the only state where this is happening?
States may not have to report “breakthrough” data if you just test positive. But hospitals DO have to report it to the CDC. So we know from every state who is vaccinated, and who isn’t, who is in the hospitals.
And no other state has anywhere close to Minnesota’s statistics.
What would be the cause of 30% vaccinated being among those hospitalized?
In no other state is it over 5% of those hospitalized who are vaccinated.
And your argument that “anecdotal evidence” is saying that the breakthroughs are the same ones who would have gotten sick without the vaccine is NOT a new revelation. Some people who are vaccinated ARE still dying from COVID if they were already at high risk. This is not unique to Minnesota. If you’re 95 and have COPD, you are at high risk whether or not you had the vaccine. Which is why they are rolling out booster shots to that population.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2021/10/Breakthrough-Cases-10-11-2021.pdf
This blog aggregates MN DOH data into a spreadsheet
“COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Weekly Update” for the data in a less friendly format from MN DOH
“Which may indicate vaccine failure or waning protection.”
Also, it’s very disturbing to see the glee with which HD throws out “vaccine failure.”
He’s glamping on to how “grim” Minnesota is because it somehow justifies his anti-vaxx stance.
Don’t get the vaccine because it’s going to “fail” anyway.
Why do people WANT the vaccine to fail? That is a failure of America. Literally. And the world. Who in the hell is stupid enough to hope the scientists got it wrong???
Why are you betting against the scientists and America? Why are you hoping Operation Warp Speed fails?
I don’t understand this warped thinking AT ALL.
Only a sad person would ever think like this during a global pandemic that is killing millions.
Anything from Powerline needs to be scrubbed for misinterpretation and distortion. These are the same folks that posted a chart one month into the pandemic showing how seasonal flu was worse than Covid because…well, not that many people were dying from Covid.
Let me point out that as vaccination rates rise the percentage of the cases that are “breakthrough” or hospitalized vaccinated also rises. If you had 100% vaccination then necessarily 100% of the Covid cases hospitalized would be vaccinated people. What you have to compare is the % hospitalized vs. the % vaccinated – or the risk of hospitalization for the two populations.
Sabrina doesn’t understand that it’s not a vaccine. It is an experimental mRNA gene-therapy delivered with nanoparticle delivery mechanism. It still IS NOT approved by the FDA. The FDA approved a future shot (Comirnaty) which is not being given and has not been given yet, to anyone.
Fauci has been caught contradicting himself multiple times. Discredited by everyone but the complicity media and people who are stupid. Masks don’t work and are filthy. Merriam-Webster literally changed the definition of vaccine, because the jab didn’t meet the formal definition. They moved the goalposts.
COVID is not a deadly virus. It has a very low mortality rate. The COVID death statistics are unreliable and much of the data has been faked or manipulated. Untrustworthy.
A person under the age of 65 would be INSANE to take the untested experimental gene therapy for a non-deadly virus.
When you see the Evil Party and lackeys forcing mandates, jabs, even on children…it causes the virtuous people’s instincts to kick in. Good people know when bad people are trying to lie to them, or harm them. God gave people instinct for a reason. It’s innate.
There are now many known dangers and side effects: blood clotting, Myocarditis, and VAERS reported ACTUAL DEATHS.
““I’m sure that in big outbreaks, in schools, offices etc., that [Singapore] probably shut down and do a 2 week quarantine to slow the outbreak.””
why would they need to do that if the “vaccine” works? Something is not adding up here
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/life-has-not-improved-much-we-hoped-singapore-outbreak-worsens-80-vaccinated
Even if Singapore has 80% jab rate, the vaxxes’ efficacy is pathetic. Israel is on its 3rd booster! Just to be able to live free and go out in public? How much more of this experimental gene therapy juice must lemmings pump into their bodies?? How many boosters will be required?
Let’s face it: The scientists either were ignorant or they lied.
Because they led EVERYONE to believe that the vaxxes would provide immunity to COVID (which they do not), they would stop infection/transmission (they do not), and they would provide the country with herd immunity (they do not (even at high % levels like in Singapore or Israel)). Nobody was told we’d need boosters, or have mass breakthrough cases lol, because the “science” turned out to wrong and now is deemed untrustworthy.
So, let’s discuss: “Singapore recorded its 58th COVID death, a partially vaccinated 80-year-old man with a history of diabetes, hypertension and heart problems.”
Does this sound like a deathly pandemic to you? 58, mostly diseased old people, out of 5.7 million?
PS It is getting harder and harder for virtuous people to dig out facts and truth from the US search engines. All Americans, even those on the Left, know that the Big Tech oligarchy is dishonest and it lies. Berniebros know. Only stupid people trust the search engine results in 2021. Manipulated, censored, dishonest, biased, untrustworthy. Better luck with Yandex, and that is far from honest too, but it’s better.
“Also, it’s very disturbing to see the glee with which HD throws out “vaccine failure.””
I am not anti-vax. Not in the slightest bit. I’ve encouraged my friends and family members in the high risk and vulnerable categories to get it. And they mostly have. But I’m not high risk. I’m as fit as a guy who runs marathons and have no pre-existing conditions and I have natural immunity. I don’t need the vax. No one should be forced to take the vax who doesn’t want it.
But if you’re vulnerable, you’re taking a big risk not getting vax. Some protection is better than no protection.
If you’re against the fetal cells they use to manufacture the vaccine (J&J, and looking like they do it for the Pfizer too) or tested/developed using fetal cells (all three of them), then people should have easy and early access to other treatments without the typically shaming that comes with that. Regeneron seems to work pretty well, and there’s mixed data about the I drug I shall not name here.
I want this vax to work as much as the next person. I really do. I want something that enables someone without natural immunity to walk into a room full of infected patients, breathe the air, and walk out just fine. Just as vaccines like Polio, and measales, chicken pox work.
And that’s the caveat with this vaccine, is that it’s not a vaccine. It is at best described as preventative medicine. The vax doesn’t stop the transmission, or catching it or even geting sick. In some cases it reduces the severity for, based on available data, between 2-9 months.
Only the drug companies and tyrants want coronavirus to never end. THe rest of us all agree we want this to end. We have disagreements how to get there.
“COVID is not a deadly virus. It has a very low mortality rate.”
——————————-
Stop lying. It has a very high infection rate. Do the math: (Very high infection rate) times (very low mortality rate) = lots of deaths.
Covid is a deadly virus for the vulnerable. And vaccines lower the viral load of even the infected, reducing the chance they pass it on to others.
“ Anything from Powerline needs to be scrubbed for misinterpretation and distortion. These are the same folks that posted a chart one month into the pandemic showing how seasonal flu was worse than Covid because…well, not that many people were dying from Covid.”
Is that criteria global or just limited to sources that you don’t agree with?
They aren’t infallible. They are lawyers and their lawyer-itis does shine thru in some instances
Gary, for younger age cohorts flu is in fact deadlier. For kids under 18, in most years there are more flu deaths. There have only been like 350 deaths nationwide under 18 years old… More kids died of flu in 2019 and most years going back 10 years per the CDC’s own data tables.
It calls into question why the rush to vaccinate that group and why we still have kids running around schools with masks on. No data supports the policy prescription, especially if we know vaccines don’t even prevent the spread.
Kids in Chicago have exponentially more chance of being shot and killed than dying from Covid, yet we don’t require them to wear bullet proof vests to schools.
I definitely think people should get vaccinated, but these mandates and masks are kabuki theatre imho. If someone chooses not to get vaccinated, that is on them…
Russ: “are kabuki theatre imho. If someone chooses not to get vaccinated, that is on them…”
Oh, it’s deeper than that. It’s a sinister as possible now.
The pro-vaxxers are political and are trying to cleanse the ranks of their institutions and their cities of people who refuse to submit to the vax. The vax is the purity test, to ensure that someone is on board with the system.
The fact that science has already admitted that the vaccine doesn’t really work at all makes it even better. You have to say “I believe it works even if it doesn’t, and I’m willing to risk death or terrible health consequences in order to demonstrate that I believe.”
They only want those who are submissive in their organizations, and in the case of super-liberal places like New York, Chicago and CA etc. they want purebloods to be physically removed from the city.
They are purposefully building a two-tier society. This is on purpose.
Lol, not kidding but at sperm banks unvaxxed sperm is in higher demand.
“Kids in Chicago have exponentially more chance of being shot and killed than dying from Covid”
what’s the exponent? 1.2? 1.4? It ain’t 2.
If you reduce it to “shot and killed” on the way to, from, or at school, the exponent is going to be less than 1.
And it’s supposed to be about transmission to others, rather than individual safety. So a vest isn’t a good analogue.
“And vaccines lower the viral load of even the infected, reducing the chance they pass it on to others.”
This is not true. Both vaxxed and unvaxxed have the same viral load. The author of the study from 10 days ago said they don’t know if vaccinated transmit the same as the unvaccinated.
But I believe it’s entirely possible that the vaccinated are in fact the superspreaders.
https://www.ucdavis.edu/health/covid-19/news/viral-loads-similar-between-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-people
Oct 4, 2021
A new study from the University of California, Davis, Genome Center and UC San Francisco shows no significant difference in viral load between vaccinated and unvaccinated people who tested positive for the delta variant of SARS-CoV-2. It also found no significant difference between infected people with or without symptoms.
Although vaccinated people with a breakthrough infection are much less likely to become severely ill than unvaccinated, the new study shows that they can be carrying similar amounts of virus and could potentially spread the virus to other people. This study did not directly address how easily vaccinated people can get infected with SARS-CoV-2, or how readily someone with a breakthrough infection can transmit the virus.
“Our study does not provide information on infectiousness,” Michelmore said. “Transmission will be influenced by several factors, not just vaccination status and viral load.”
Those factors could include, for example, when they were vaccinated and with what vaccine, the underlying status of their immune system, and the intensity of exposure.
(So in other words, we have no evidence that the vaccinated spread any less than the unvaxxed!)
“So in other words, we have no evidence that the vaccinated spread any less than the unvaxxed!”
All else being equal (ie, other habits of personal interaction, mobility, mask-wearing, etc), it is true that we do not.
And those ‘other habits’ actually cut both ways on this particular question.
Helmethofer,
For God’s sake, man, stop with the propaganda
“Sabrina doesn’t understand that it’s not a vaccine. It is an experimental mRNA gene-therapy delivered with nanoparticle delivery mechanism.”
Who TF cares what you call it? It works like a vaccine.
“The FDA approved a future shot (Comirnaty) which is not being given and has not been given yet, to anyone.”
It’s just a naming difference. Same stuff.
“Masks don’t work and are filthy.”
If they are filthy they must be working.
“COVID is not a deadly virus. It has a very low mortality rate.”
Tell that to the friends and family of the 700K+ dead.
“The COVID death statistics are unreliable and much of the data has been faked or manipulated. Untrustworthy.”
You never answer this question: Then why did life expectancy go down last year? Why are there more than 700K excess deaths?
“There are now many known dangers and side effects: blood clotting, Myocarditis, and VAERS reported ACTUAL DEATHS.”
Nope. Just not true. VAERS is not reporting deaths cased by the vaccine.
“It calls into question why the rush to vaccinate that group and why we still have kids running around schools with masks on. No data supports the policy prescription, especially if we know vaccines don’t even prevent the spread.”
This has not been communicated well. The primary reason is so that they stop spreading it to everyone else that’s unvaccinated. Also, if my kids were young I’d rather them not get the virus. The vaccine risk to them is negligible. Long Covid risk is not negligible.
“Is that criteria global or just limited to sources that you don’t agree with?”
That criteria is limited to any source that has proven to be unreliable in the past and seems to be more interested in promoting an agenda than in reporting news and facts.
“The pro-vaxxers are political and are trying to cleanse the ranks of their institutions and their cities of people who refuse to submit to the vax. The vax is the purity test, to ensure that someone is on board with the system.”
How TF do you come up with these conspiracy theories? Do you really believe this crap or are you punking us?
In this alternate universe of yours exactly how will they use the vaccine as a purity test? What does it tell them other than someone wants the vaccine or not? What use is that to them? How exactly do they benefit? What is this system you speak of and what does it have to do with the vaccine?
*How TF do you come up with these conspiracy theories? Do you really believe this crap or are you punking us?*
Gary, the purge is real. You’re just not paying attention. The Biden Admin is purposely trying to remove from society tens of millions of people most of whom are suspected Trump voters.
Lori is doing the same thing with the CPD. She wants half the force fired over the vax. She gets rid of the rabble rousers conservatives and her dealings with the CPD get substantially easier. They will likely leave the city and take suburban cop jobs.
You have to be blind not to see this.
And if you live in Chicago this weekend, wow, you better arm up, its going to be a real life movie like The Purge. The criminals know this is the weekend they can go crazy, because response time will be slow, there won’t be any evidence techs available, and the beat cops will completely fetal fearing for their own lives.
And the evening headline on the Tribune says that Lori refuses to extend the deadline for cops. Things are going to get scary for all of you.
Except for the Teachers. She extended the vax deadline for them of course, because they vote for her. The cops, well, not so much. She wants to purge the non-complaint ones.
So how exactly does this purge work? People who lose their jobs won’t be able to vote any more? Them, and all the people outraged by this won’t turn out to vote?
And Trump supporters have done a great job of purging themselves. 10s of thousands who were unvaxxed have died in the last few months. Now that’s effective voter suppression!
“The Biden Admin is purposely trying to remove from society tens of millions of people most of whom are suspected Trump voters. ”
——————————
Now you’re just babbling.
“We’ve been patient but our patience is wearing thin and your refusal has cost all of us.” – Joe Biden
“The protected need to be protected from the unprotected by forcing the unprotected to use the protection that didn’t protect the protected.”
“Gary, the purge is real. You’re just not paying attention. The Biden Admin is purposely trying to remove from society tens of millions of people most of whom are suspected Trump voters.”
It’s so absurd.
It didn’t have to be like this. If people would only be educated and believe in science instead of buying into the deadly propaganda.
Again, Lakeview zip codes are now 80% fully vaccinated. But the education level is high there.
“And if you live in Chicago this weekend, wow, you better arm up, its going to be a real life movie like The Purge. The criminals know this is the weekend they can go crazy, because response time will be slow, there won’t be any evidence techs available, and the beat cops will completely fetal fearing for their own lives.”
Are all those Verizon employees going to quit too?
What about AT&T?
What about Boeing?
They are all federal contractors, right?
It’s interesting to see the compliance rate in the military. Marines are the lowest among the branches. National Guard is the lowest of all. But high compliance rates from the Navy.
“How TF do you come up with these conspiracy theories? Do you really believe this crap or are you punking us?”
Yes- they believe it.
But apparently Europe and Asia are using it as a “purity” test too, right? Because you will have to be vaccinated to go to Europe and some Asian countries like Singapore.
“It’s interesting to see the compliance rate in the military. Marines are the lowest among the branches. National Guard is the lowest of all.”
That is far, far more worrisome than the murderous hellscape that some on here currently describe Chicago to be. Rates are also problematically low (and protests to mandates high) among many police forces, including in the largest blue cities. Those low rates are a direct result of right wing disinformation and an allegiance to the MAGA/Trumpist movement.
“It calls into question why the rush to vaccinate that group and why we still have kids running around schools with masks on.”
12 teachers and workers in one Florida school district have died since Aug 10 when their schools reopened of COVID. There is no masks required at the school. There have been big outbreaks among the students.
This is why parents want their kids vaccinated.
“This has not been communicated well. The primary reason is so that they stop spreading it to everyone else that’s unvaccinated. Also, if my kids were young I’d rather them not get the virus. The vaccine risk to them is negligible. Long Covid risk is not negligible”
Long Covid as it related to children <12?
"That criteria is limited to any source that has proven to be unreliable in the past and seems to be more interested in promoting an agenda than in reporting news and facts."
Whom pray tell do you get your news from?
I can't think of a single source that doesnt fit that category
“Lakeview zip codes are now 80% fully vaccinated”
This is not supported by City data. As of Yesterday:
’57 = 68.7% fully vax
’13 = 70.5% fully vax
They are the two highest rates in zips that don’t appear to include people using their office addresses (Loop-ish zips), which include a couple zips with over 100% fully vax.
“Long Covid as it related to children <12?"
Yes. We don't know what long term effects will be.
"Whom pray tell do you get your news from?"
CNN, WSJ, Washington Post, NYT and stories I see from my right wing friends. But I always check original sources when possible.
"I can't think of a single source that doesnt fit that category"
Although the sources above might lean a little left or bias the presentation they don't typically get entire stories wrong or purposely spread misinformation. The NY Post, Powerline, Daily Wire, Breitbart, Fox News, Townhall, Western Journal, Newsmax, OAN, Daily Caller, Judicial Watch are good for surfacing obscure stuff that the MSM ignores but they blow stories up, engage in clickbait, and often just get stuff wrong. Often.
“This is not supported by City data. As of Yesterday:
’57 = 68.7% fully vax
’13 = 70.5% fully vax”
That’s not the data I saw. It could be those over 18 though. I don’t remember if it specified. It was in the recent city covid update though.
Here: https://data.cityofchicago.org/Health-Human-Services/COVID-19-Vaccination-Coverage-by-ZIP-Code-At-Least/xk78-iw3x
Gotta look for “vax series complete” number. The map and featured column are “at least one dose”
““Long Covid as it related to children <12?"
Yes. We don't know what long term effects will be.
"Whom pray tell do you get your news from?"
CNN, WSJ, Washington Post, NYT and stories I see from my right wing friends. But I always check original sources when possible."
Per the NY Times morning newsletter from October 12, 2021….
"An unvaccinated child is at less risk of serious Covid illness than a vaccinated 70-year-old."
But yes keep up the fear mongering and "deny the science"….
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/12/briefing/covid-age-risk-infection-vaccine.html
“Per the NY Times morning newsletter”
So who were the lucky subjects of the 40 year study on longterm effects of covid?
We *know* already that the research described here:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/12/051227102639.htm
is completely inapplicable to COVID?
Can you explain how we know?
Or is it sort of like the “no other cities are seeing 30 year highs in homicides”.
““Long Covid as it related to children <12?"
Yes. We don't know what long term effects will be.""
Yet we know what the long term affects from the Vax/Masking/Etc are?
"Whom pray tell do you get your news from?"
CNN, WSJ, Washington Post, NYT and stories I see from my right wing friends. But I always check original sources when possible.
"I can't think of a single source that doesnt fit that category"
Although the sources above might lean a little left or bias the presentation they don't typically get entire stories wrong or purposely spread misinformation. The NY Post, Powerline, Daily Wire, Breitbart, Fox News, Townhall, Western Journal, Newsmax, OAN, Daily Caller, Judicial Watch are good for surfacing obscure stuff that the MSM ignores but they blow stories up, engage in clickbait, and often just get stuff wrong. Often.
LOL, Because you agree with their output
Bangup job by the NYT science editor wrt Covid…
“is completely inapplicable to COVID?
Can you explain how we know?”
Studies from “science”…..
“More than 98% recovered by 8 weeks”
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/08/long-covid-19-rare-children-study-says
“More than 98% recovered by 8 weeks”
Go assemble 100 kids from your neighborhood elementary, line them up against the wall, then take about a dozen or so and break a limb (don’t worry, their cast will off in a couple months), then take two of them and do even worse damage, maybe even kill em. Because that’s what people who say “98% recovery after two weeks… see!!!” Pediatric Covid hospitalizations increased 500% from June to August. What do you think the situation is for thousands of kids who “recovered” after a mere, say, 5 or 7 weeks?
“then take two of them and do even worse damage, maybe even kill em. Because that’s what people who say “98% recovery after two weeks… see!!!”
Moving the goal post much? This discussion is about long-term covid in kids not death. Further, read the article… “the study does not mention any deaths”
“Pediatric Covid hospitalizations increased 500% from June to August.”
(i) it’s October; (ii) care to share the baseline number? Obviously tongue and cheek but if we started at 1 and ended up at 5 that would be a 500% increase….
“What do you think the situation is for thousands of kids who “recovered” after a mere, say, 5 or 7 weeks?”
According to the study they are now fine…..
You realize that out of the 700+ thousand covid deaths less than 1% were children and that pre-covid 9 – 10K children under the age of 14 died every year in this country over the previous decade.
In Cook County more kids have died from gun shots then from Covid. In Cook County more kids have drowned than died of covid. In Cook County more kids have died in car accidents than from Covid.
When will you understand that if you are vaccinated Covid is over. If you are a child Covid was and always has been a minimal threat.
Yeah, I get the numbers, and all the other, worse risks out there. But then there was this new one added to life, and it didn’t have to be as bad as it is, even if 600-700 kid deaths so far isn’t so bad. Can you imagine being the parent of one of those dead kids? And personally, if I were in a research field dealing with Covid and kids, I wouldn’t be printing a word without huge all caps disclaimers and qualifiers as to just how much we don’t know. I sure hope it’s not the case, but in a few months or a few years, we could be learning that thousands of kids who weathered their Covid infection just fine are simply not the same. My wife and kids have had it since early last week and I have since earlier this week. Fingers crossed that in a year or two we’ll have no health issues. That will certainly make the second civil war and our subsequent foreign takeover easier to handle.
“Yet we know what the long term affects from the Vax/Masking/Etc are?”
We know adults are suffering from long term consequences. It is reasonable to believe that kids might have those issues at some point.
But I can’t even imagine long term consequences from masking and what long term consequences have there been from other vaccines? I’m not aware of any so it’s reasonable to be comfortable with the Covid vaccine.
“LOL, Because you agree with their output”
I have absolutely no skin in the game. In fact, I probably personally benefit more from the policies of the right than the left and a lot of what I believe is termed conservative. So I have no problem believing some of the claims from the right – if they are made with sufficient supporting evidence. But often the supporting evidence is just ridiculous and at the end of the day I can only believe what makes sense.
Regarding our earlier discussion about lockdowns not being the sole cause of economic retrenchment: https://therealdeal.com/issues_articles/chicagos-struggling-hotels/
“When will you understand that if you are vaccinated Covid is over. If you are a child Covid was and always has been a minimal threat.”
Why would it be “over”?
You can still get it. Yes, you’re unlikely to be hospitalized or die (unless, apparently, you live in Minnesota according to HD’s propaganda).
But that doesn’t mean you won’t be ill. And many do suffer long-term impacts, which we are only just beginning to understand.