Get a 2-Bedroom $13,000 Under the 2015 Price in River North: 630 N. State
This 2-bedroom in 630 N. State in River North came on the market in November 2021.
It’s hard to believe, but I apparently don’t have a picture of this building in my photo collection.
630 N. State was built in 2000 and has 171 units and an attached garage.
The building has 24-hour door staff, an exercise room and party room.
It’s a southeast corner unit with Chicago skyline views, custom lighting and Hunter Douglas Silhouette shades.
The unit has a split floor plan and hardwood floors.
The primary bedroom is en suite and has double closets and the bathroom has a double vanity with granite counter tops, a walk-in-shower and soaking tub.
The kitchen has maple cabinets, granite counter tops, black appliances and gas cooking along with a breakfast bar.
It has a private balcony.
The unit has the features buyers look for including central air, washer/dryer in the unit and a garage parking space is included.
This building is located near the Trader Joe’s, Whole Foods, Jewel, coffee shops, restaurants and Michigan Avenue.
Listed at $495,000, that is $13,000 under the 2015 list price of $508,000.
Is this a deal?
Sarah Taich and James Taich at Baird & Warner have the listing. See the pictures and floor plan here.
Unit #2306: 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, 1225 square feet
- Sold in March 2001 for $387,500
- Sold in November 2015 for $508,000
- Originally listed in November 2021 for $495,000
- Currently still listed at $495,000
- Assessments of $958 a month (includes heat, gas, central air, cable, internet, doorman, exercise room, exterior maintenance, lawn care, scavenger, snow removal)
- Taxes of $9,062
- Central Air
- Washer/dryer in the unit
- Garage parking included
- Bedroom #1: 15×12
- Bedroom #2: 14×10
- Living/dining combo: 19×16
- Kitchen: 13×8
- Foyer: 8×4
- Balcony: 9×4
Well, it meets every checkbox: real 2/2, outdoor space, w/d, parking, location, gym, separate bathtub, affordable for me…
But, no, it’s awful. So generically 2000 ugly, boring. No.
Sabrina, you don’t have a picture because you walked by and you fell asleep just looking at it. I walk by this place every time I go to the grocery and have never felt compelled by the outside to see what the inside looks like.
No mention of it’s proximity to Eataly?
Comps for this aint pretty. Need to lop about another 10%
What’s the vertical line behind the bed?
“What’s the vertical line behind the bed?”
Looks like a Gyp control joint
“Looks like a Gyp control joint”
Screams “luxury boutique residence” to me!
“Screams “luxury boutique residence” to me!”
Yeah its in an odd spot. Usually only see them in long hallways or over spans.
Guessing there was either a joint failure in the wall due to movement or the wall is continuous for a long run and the installer just laid it out every 40′ or so
The previous owner had wallpapered the BR. The joint shouldnt have been covered
I really wonder what the thought process is to drop 500k on something like this. Similar to somebody going to a car dealership, considering every car on the lot and deciding to purchase a fully loaded Kia Soul.
The 2000 price for this seems about right… no way in hell it sells for ask
If the owners were serious about selling at this price, they would install some decent light fixtures, paint the kitchen cabinets and get some stainless steel appliances in there. Would make a huge difference… and maybe while your at it powerwash that grimy patio… shouldn’t take long its tiny
“I really wonder what the thought process is to drop 500k on something like this.”
BuY nOw oR Be pRIceD OuT FOreVEr
mOMmY & DaDDy TOld mE rEAl eSTaTE OnLY goES Up
This is probably worst-case scenario as a comp –
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/630-N-State-St-60654/unit-1206/home/12752096
Regardless the ask is way out in left field, dont think the market has moved that much in 6 months
What’s going on the the MBa floor tile? Looks like they had 2 completely different tiles
Year Built
2000
Has the “42-inch maple cabinets, black appliances” of that era. They need to upgrade something, because this place is selling a bad dream: Buy here and waste twenty years of your life being lonely”. If this place sells to a lonely misguided young feminist who wastes her prime fertility years drinking sauvignon blanc in this box, it will be a travesty.
“This building is located near the Trader Joe’s, Whole Foods, Jewel, coffee shops, restaurants and Michigan Avenue.”
Surprised they didn’t mention the 7-11 right in the listing.
Anyways, this place has me wondering, has anyone heard of brokers specializing in Airbnbs? Seems like there’s an opportunity there. For sellers and for investors.
Ummmm….how about don’t lock up $100K indefinitely and just rent something instead? This is a terrible deal. Literally nothing nice about this unit.
“Anyways, this place has me wondering, has anyone heard of brokers specializing in Airbnbs? Seems like there’s an opportunity there. For sellers and for investors.”
most HOA’s don’t allow that sort of thing, and the city is cracking down on them as well
Skyline views means, in short, staring directly at other buildings through every window.
This one sure seems better for (roughly) similar pricing:
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/3314-N-Lake-Shore-Dr-60657/unit-8C/home/13375175
It’s interesting to see the new Redfin “feed” feature (sort of) reflect the market. My feed (without ever having told Redfind to do so) generally shows stuff in LP, JV and GC in Chicago and Boulder (and within few miles).
3314 LSD is a very nice building and much better than the featured one here. Plenty of character. But if someone is looking for close to downtown, it doesn’t really fit the description.
Also, 3314 lacks the amenities of a modern building, and 8C is in the back. These apartments were cut out of the original full-floor units and you can kind of tell from their awkward layouts. At least 8C is high enough to get you sort of a view west, and the price is good, but I wouldn’t want to be lower in the building facing this way unless you love alley views.
“This one sure seems better for (roughly) similar pricing:”
why bother comparing…it’s 4 miles away.
Such a snoozer property in a location that’s not even that great anymore. But I’m sure Sabrina will jump on here soon to say downtown is hotter than ever.
The property shared at 3314 is listed as a 3 bedroom but is not. One of the keys to selling is maintaining credibility — I don’t know why agents try to get cute with something so blatantly incorrect that will be noticed the first time someone looks at a floor plan.
“why bother comparing…it’s 4 miles away.”
If things are as bad as folks say they are in RN, I suppose 4 miles is a decent buffer?
For just $100,000 then only $3500 per month, you too can live in an Extended Stay Hampton Inn Suite.
Check out the penthouse in the building. Rather craptastic for 2 million bucks!
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/630-N-State-St-60654/unit-2705/home/12737592
“But I’m sure Sabrina will jump on here soon to say downtown is hotter than ever.”
I guess you don’t read any of my comments on this site KK. I said last week that I would do a “downtown deals” week as there are still plenty of them.
Downtown hasn’t been hot since COVID hit. It’s recovering, but it’s not hot. It’ll take at least 2 years for the inventory to be absorbed and for the Mag Mile, restaurants, hotels, concerts, sporting events, and conventions to “come back”- or not.
But it’s really about the inventory. Because, despite belief here, there ARE still condos selling downtown (which I all from Cermak to North Avenue.) Plenty of them. But they’re not selling for 20% over the last asking price.
“Skyline views means, in short, staring directly at other buildings through every window.”
Yeah, it should really say “city view” and not “skyline” Dan #2.
“Anyways, this place has me wondering, has anyone heard of brokers specializing in Airbnbs? Seems like there’s an opportunity there. For sellers and for investors.”
As sonies commented, that’s not going to happen in a Chicago high rise. Every building has forbidden short term rentals.
BUT- some companies are buying entire buildings or leasing out a bunch of units in an apartment building and can then list them.
You can find Sonder units at Essex on the Park on Booking.com, for example.
“ But they’re not selling for 20% over the last asking price.L
Where is this unicorn neighborhood?
“Where is this unicorn neighborhood?”
All over the city where there have been bidding wars for the last 19 months and $350,000 condos were getting bids $50,000 to $75,000 over the list price? And single family homes were getting bids $100,000 over list? And townhomes were getting $50,000 over list?
“All over the city where there have been bidding wars for the last 19 months and $350,000 condos were getting bids $50,000 to $75,000 over the list price? And single family homes were getting bids $100,000 over list? And townhomes were getting $50,000 over list?”
Since they’re all over, how about a few links?
“Since they’re all over, how about a few links?”
We’re at both record median price and sales that are at 15 year highs. Feel free to go and look JohnnyU. You have nothing better to do all day anyway.
“ We’re at both record median price and sales that are at 15 year highs. Feel free to go and look JohnnyU. You have nothing better to do all day anyway.”
So per usual an empty statement
Shocking
I have better things to do. Go look around Logan Square. Look around Bronzeville. Those have been two of the hottest neighborhoods the last 2 years.
Because I’m nice, just take a look at Logan Square. Dozens of people making 20% or more on the sale of their properties there.
Here’s one that it took me only 5 minutes to find:
Sold in 2013 for $570,000
Listed at $775,000.
Sold for $10,000 over list at $785,000 (hot!)
Put in a new kitchen and primary bathroom. Didn’t move walls. Small kitchen.
Gain of over 30%. Even deducting renovation costs, still made over 20%.
Yeah, Chicago real estate is hot outside of downtown. Multiple bids on most homes under $1 million on north side neighborhoods. People wanted out of their condos. They want homes with backyards. Still do.
I don’t know why the bears on this blog continue to gaslight the data and actual sales.
Hooray! People are selling for a gain in Chicago again.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/2437-N-Maplewood-Ave-60647/home/13450120
Here’s one in Avondale.
Sold in July 2015 for $510,000
Listed in July 2021 for $699,000- under contract in less than a week
Sold in August 2021 for $683,000
Not bad for 6 years in Chicago.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/2651-W-George-St-60618/home/13452212
“ All over the city where there have been bidding wars for the last 19 months and $350,000 condos were getting bids $50,000 to $75,000 over the list price? And single family homes were getting bids $100,000 over list? And townhomes were getting $50,000 over list?”
Vs
Here’s one in Avondale.
Sold in July 2015 for $510,000
Listed in July 2021 for $699,000- under contract in less than a week
Sold in August 2021 for $683,000
So selling for less than ask is now getting a premium?
This is a PSA to avoid boxed wine
At this stage and as much as I hate to make the analogy I’m Arog and you are Matt Nagy and the Bears
“Sold in July 2015 for $510,000
Listed in July 2021 for $699,000- under contract in less than a week
Sold in August 2021 for $683,000
Not bad for 6 years in Chicago.”
——————————
That’s maybe 5 percent a year, before deducting transaction costs for the 2015 buy and 2021 sell. What was, say, Memphis, doing at the same time?
“That’s maybe 5 percent a year, before deducting transaction costs for the 2015 buy and 2021 sell. What was, say, Memphis, doing at the same time?”
You can also deduct the costs for a new kitchen as well to get a fuller look at the appreciation
Plenty of homes have sold well over list. I’ve probably mentioned a few of these homes already. I follow Bucktown/WP closer than other neighborhoods so here are a few. Not linking.
2052 W Pierce – 55k over list
2147 W Homer – 65k over list
1870 N Hoyne – 60k over list
1907 N Hoyne – 110k over list
I’d imagine for every home that has sold for over list there’s another that sold for below.
here’s what a hot market looks like
https://www.redfin.com/NV/Reno/3665-Hemlock-Way-89509/home/60193927
literally nothing done to the property, sold for 414k in march 2015, listed for 799k today and most properties here sell for over list
Chicago is the worst performing metro market out of the 20 largest cities in the US… its not hot, its worse than Detroit!
https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-home-prices-record-june-20210831-nicn2vecsfcfhnnc7faxpmyiam-story.html
“Plenty of homes have sold well over list.”
This is undoubtedly true, and there are dozens more examples in BT/WP,
BUT
is it even 1 in 4 (as in your examples) that “were getting bids $100,000 over list”?
Hyperbole in support of a valid point diminishes the perception of the validity of the point.
“Chicago is the worst performing metro market out of the 20 largest cities in the US… its not hot, its worse than Detroit!”
Aw…sonies. Moved away and has NO CLUE what is going on here in Chicago.
It’s tough still checking in with your old city when you live in “paradise.”
Lol.
What is “hot”?
You, apparently, are going ONLY by price increase.
But “hot”, to me, means:
1. Record low inventory citywide
2. Highest home sales in 15 years- which was a housing bubble
3. Prices rising
All three things are happening in Chicago in 2021.
How can you gaslight data?
I don’t get it. You can root against Chicago every day for the rest of your life, as it appears, you will be doing. But that doesn’t make Chicago doomed.
Developers just announced a $300 million development in Woodlawn, near the Obama Library. Includes hotel and retail.
Investment is being made in the city. The jobs are here. The conventions are here. The world class universities, research labs and scientists are here. The country’s best airport is here.
We are building another 70+ high rise with over 700 apartments.
You can’t compare other markets to Chicago. It’s stupid. All real estate is LOCAL.
That’s like posting a listing from Hawaii and saying, “too bad Chicago hasn’t done this.”
Also no different than comparing Chicago/SF/NYC in terms of “deals” for downtown condos.
Chicago’s market is hot. Ask anyone who has attempted to buy. I know someone who got outbid on about 8 condos in Bucktown/Logan Square before he finally succeeded in “winning” at $45,000 over the list price. Somehow it actually appraised out at that level (didn’t pay cash.)
In a “hot” Chicago market, realtors go to homeowners and ask if they are considering selling because they have buyers when they are NOT on the market. This is happening in Lakeshore East right now. Realtors are looking for 1-bedroom units in some of those high rises right now. That’s surprising but it’s now cheaper to buy, then to rent, and you get more space.
Inventory is low in the lower price points downtown. Anything under $800,000. It’s cheaper than renting.
Thanks for the addresses marco.
There are plenty of sellers who are “winners” in this housing market. The “Chicago is a horrible housing market” just doesn’t fit the narrative.
It has NEVER been California or Las Vegas. Increases of 10% or 20% in a year hasn’t happened since the housing bubble. Our market sees steady increases of 1% to 3% a year. In recent years, it hasn’t even seen that, however. And downtown has gotten hammered in the pandemic but it’s starting its recovery now.
If I was thinking of selling downtown, I would wait, if I could, at least one to two more years. The inventory has to be absorbed. In every other neighborhood outside of downtown, inventory is already at record lows and there are plenty of buyers. It’s still a sellers market. You will make money.
“That’s maybe 5 percent a year, before deducting transaction costs for the 2015 buy and 2021 sell. What was, say, Memphis, doing at the same time?”
We don’t live in Memphis johnc. Who cares what’s happening down there?
5% a year??? OMG. That is SUPER hot for Chicago. Chicago has historically done 1% to 3% a year.
Way to go homeowners. Finally, Chicago is seeing some real gains.
“That’s maybe 5 percent a year”
Jul-15 $510k = Aug-21 $584k.
$683 = $584 + 2.64% per annum
which is over 5x historical longterm real gains.
BUT, that doesn’t account for the kitchen reno, which is prob ~50% of the increase in price.
“5% a year??? OMG. That is SUPER hot for Chicago. Chicago has historically done 1% to 3% a year.
Way to go homeowners. Finally, Chicago is seeing some real gains.”
Worse than inflation and literally 1500 basis points under performing the rest of the nation’s major metros… but yeah its “HAWT”
I want Chicago to do well but the disastrous leadership and policies are destroying people’s largest asset values
“There are plenty of sellers who are “winners” in this housing market. The “Chicago is a horrible housing market” just doesn’t fit the narrative.”
Move Goalpost
Claim victory
LOL
“But “hot”, to me, means:
1. Record low inventory citywide
2. Highest home sales in 15 years- which was a housing bubble
3. Prices rising”
Thats not HAWT ™ tho
It is kinda interesting that with such low inventory and high demand that prices arent increasing anywhere near what they are in other cities. Somehow Chicago has a different supply V demand curve than every other city
“Developers just announced a $300 million development in Woodlawn, near the Obama Library. Includes hotel and retail.”
Yeah…. That’s one of Braziers developments, seems very sketchy. Woodlawn is doing fine if the anti-white brigade* there doesn’t get the “community development agreement” from Obama. New construction houses are going for just shy of 700k now.
*I can’t remember if it was the alderman or a community group now, but a quote has been published in the press, that they didn’t want white people to move in and essentially were trying to ban them.
Sorry, meant CBA, “Community Benefits Agreement” from the Obama Presidential Center.
I’m not surprised that the Obama’s didn’t come back – he’s not originally from here and has no real ties to the City. Plus a lot of people in HP realized that he was a lot more conservative than they had originally believed (and some people felt he didn’t do enough for the neighborhood as president – I always thought that he was smart in not pushing Chicago centered things since he would have been accused of being a “Chicago Machine” operator/lackey).
“5% a year??? OMG. That is SUPER hot for Chicago. Chicago has historically done 1% to 3% a year. ”
—————————————
So a passbook savings account out-performs Chicago real estate, and without the transaction costs. Are they HAWT too?
The flaw in your logic, Sabrina, as to refusing to compare Chicago to other cities, is that Chicago’s lack of price appreciation comes from one or both of two things; either people aren’t moving to Chicago, or there’s a huge discount for the corruption and mismanagement here (world class in both categories). Given that Chicago’s population grew a little, that tells us that the corruption and mismanagement means no one wants to stay. They rent and then leave for a civilized area.
“a passbook savings account”
Do tell where you have been getting 5% on $250k in FDIC-insured deposits over the past 5 years.
“one or both of two things”
Nah, I think it’s all down to neighborhoods being somewhat fluid. If we’d stuck with rigidly defined neighborhood boundaries, we’d be booming like Austin.
I guess we all view hot differently. In my Florida neighborhood of ~1,000 homes there are just 3 for sale (all listed within the last month) and all are asking double or more than what they paid – a couple purchased last year or the year before. I get unsolicited calls and letters from agents constantly trying to list my place.
We looked at houses in Naples FL just a couple years back and the ones that we passed on were in the $2m range. One ended up selling for 1.8. Zillow now says it is worth 4.5m! That’s hot!
Some of my old buddies in Mount Prospect are seeing their values declining (taxes increasing) and one old dude I know who bought in Orland Park in the 80s for $250k has a whopping 50% appreciation over 35 YEARS! Everyone I know who still owns condos in Lakeshore east, gold coast or streeterville has gotten killed. Like worst financial decision they’ve ever made. They have to bring cash to the table to sell kinda terrible.
What’s the benefit of buying in Chicago right now? You take all the risk for the hopes to, what, break even when you sell?
“I guess we all view hot differently.”
Real estate is LOCAL Stacy. My god.
When home prices went up 40% in Las Vegas in 2007 but only 20% in Florida, were both markets not hot?
How many houses are for sale in Logan Square right now under $1 million, Stacy? Do you know? It’s 14 that are available and not under contract/pending.
Out of hundreds of homes.
Come on.
I love it how these former Chicagoans come to a Chicago real estate blog to bash it. Why?
Because real estate in Florida SUCKS and they come here so they can remember what great architecture and urban living looks like.
“Everyone I know who still owns condos in Lakeshore east, gold coast or streeterville has gotten killed. Like worst financial decision they’ve ever made. They have to bring cash to the table to sell kinda terrible.”
Ba ha ha ha.
This is laughable. Truly.
When did they buy? 2019?
Then, yes, they may likely be underwater. But if they’re selling 2 years after they bought, I have no sympathy.
Because the facts are, if you bought in 2005 at the height of the housing bubble in these neighborhoods, you aren’t bringing “cash to the table” unless you’ve been HELOing like hell on the property. Easy to forget that you have been paying a mortgage for 16 years if you bought in 2005. Have paid down some of that loan.
If you bought at the height of the bust, in 2012, you aren’t bringing money to the table in Streeterville or Lakeshore East. Absurd.
And, no, prices haven’t fallen 50% in Lakeshore East or Streeterville.
Gold Coast has had more problems, as I’ve discussed, because the elderly are dying or retiring and they are all moving out of that neighborhood at the same time. Too much inventory and units that haven’t been renovated in a long time. Additionally, the neighborhood is out of favor with younger people.
There’s a new condo building that is closing on units right now in Lakeshore East Stacy. They aren’t having any troubles selling it.
“The flaw in your logic, Sabrina, as to refusing to compare Chicago to other cities, is that Chicago’s lack of price appreciation comes from one or both of two things; either people aren’t moving to Chicago,”
Once again, please talk about actual data.
Chicago has lost population over the last 10 years BUT the downtown has not. Downtown has added 50,000 residents.
Do you think we’re building dozens of new high rise apartment towers, johnc, because they are all sitting there empty? Are we building Lincoln Yards a multi-billion dollar development because no one is going to live or work there? Are we building a billion dollar development on Goose Island because no one is coming to Chicago and the city is doomed?
Come on.
No, you cannot compare Chicago’s housing market to any other city. Every city is different financially and geographically. Why do you think 5,000 square foot homes outside of Dallas cost 25% the same thing in the San Francisco suburbs? Why can’t you compare the two? Why?
Come on.
The bears on this blog are getting crazy because things are NOT bearish for Chicago right now, no matter how much you all want Chicago to fail (which is just beyond all reason to me.) Chicago is one of the country’s power centers in finance, transportation, agriculture and food.
When it wins, the country wins.
“I get unsolicited calls and letters from agents constantly trying to list my place.”
People in Lakeshore East are getting unsolicited letters right now Stacy. I guess it’s hot!
“What’s the benefit of buying in Chicago right now?”
You get to live in one of the greatest cities in the world.
“So a passbook savings account out-performs Chicago real estate, and without the transaction costs. Are they HAWT too?”
You make the mistake of assuming real estate is an “investment.” It is not. It’s somewhere to live. People will spend more on their flood insurance in Florida than on their mortgage and think that it all makes sense.
We buy new appliances and rip out our granite counter tops to put in quartz and call it an “investment.”
An investment is stocks, bonds, or your uncle John’s restaurant.
We are back to living off of our homes again, huh?
I didn’t feel that this housing market was a bubble until just now. This comment gives me the chills. It’s only going to end badly in a lot of places when those mortgage rates rise.
“I’m not surprised that the Obama’s didn’t come back – he’s not originally from here and has no real ties to the City.”
They still own their house on the South Side, most likely because they will be here quite a bit more once the Obama Library opens which won’t be for a few more years.
Also, Michelle was born in Chicago so you can’t get any more “real ties” than that.
“I want Chicago to do well but the disastrous leadership and policies are destroying people’s largest asset values”
Quit lying sonies. My god.
You do NOT want Chicago to do well.
And, again, whose “asset” is being destroyed? What a joke.
You bears are all the same. Keep hawking the same thing and then none of you will show up here when I post November’s 15 year sales high.
You will just go crying and whining about how Chicago is doomed when it clearly is not. When banks and developers are investing, literally, BILLIONS of dollars. When companies are moving headquarters here and college students continue to come here in droves for our great job market.
No one is saying it’s perfect. I won’t go out after 9 pm right now and Bucktown has hired private, armed guards. But big cities have had these challenges, and much, much worse (the 70s and 80s anyone???) and have always come through it.
The belief that the cities would “die” from COVID was wrong. They are coming back but, unfortunately, the delta and omicron outbreaks are about to undo a lot of the progress globally.
Thousands of Covid cases are being reported on college campuses suddenly. Many of them are already omicron.
It’s going to spread like wildfire among the unvaccinated.
Prayers for our hospitals and medical pros. They don’t deserve this nightmare.
“ You make the mistake of assuming real estate is an “investment.” It is not. It’s somewhere to live. People will spend more on their flood insurance in Florida than on their mortgage and think that it all makes sense.”
Wasn’t it an investment last week?
“It’s only going to end badly in a lot of places when those mortgage rates rise.”
That’s been said a lot here.
And there’s been a lot of bubble denial.
“But I guess you prefer to lie w/ numbers”
—————————–
Figures can’t lie, but liars can figure.
“And there’s been a lot of bubble denial.”
There’s no bubble in Chicagoland. Nor in most of the Midwest. Bubbles require speculation. But you’re starting to see signs of this in places like Austin where “investors” are buying of dozens of homes and home buyers are willing to buy anything, at any price. Additionally, when you start seeing homeowners believing that real estate only goes up 20% yoy and it will keep doing it forever, you know you are seeing distortions in the market.
Rising mortgage rates will cool it. The Fed needs to be raising rates or else it WILL face a housing bubble which is the last thing it needs.
“There’s no bubble in Chicagoland. Nor in most of the Midwest. Bubbles require speculation. But you’re starting to see signs of this in places like Austin where “investors” are buying of dozens of homes and home buyers are willing to buy anything, at any price. Additionally, when you start seeing homeowners believing that real estate only goes up 20% yoy and it will keep doing it forever, you know you are seeing distortions in the market.
Rising mortgage rates will cool it. The Fed needs to be raising rates or else it WILL face a housing bubble which is the last thing it needs.”
A 1% rise in rates is going to create a 10% haircut in sales price
So Chicago gets the worst of both worlds – Low appreciation and same downside
Guessing this will cause another deletion
“You will just go crying and whining about how Chicago is doomed when it clearly is not. When banks and developers are investing, literally, BILLIONS of dollars. When companies are moving headquarters here and college students continue to come here in droves for our great job market.
Builders always build… its what they do… they build until they can’t anymore… but when was the last time a company that mattered moved their HQ to Chicago? MCD what 3 years ago? Boeing 20 years ago? Do HQ locations even matter anymore now that so many can work remotely?
People moving out of Chicago, more supply, more taxes, more crime and less services for those tax dollars isn’t good for the future of Chicago real estate and that’s why it has under performed hugely compared to the rest of the nation’s big cities
Had to poke around a little–there isn’t a ton that isn’t new in LSE on the market. This one, tho:
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/201-N-Westshore-Dr-60601/unit-1408/home/12647035
Is asking $525k, having been bought in Jan-05 for $501,500. Plus CPI, that’s $730k. If they get their ask, and ignoring transaction costs, that’s underperforming inflation by 200 bps.
Of course, it did better than the owners’ suburban house, that they sold earlier this year for 21% less than they paid for it in Jan-06.
Neither case were they bringing cash to closing, but it’s still a financially painful reality.
The howmuchamonth approach is a real problem–a $647,200 conforming mortgage is $2,906/mo at 3.5%–at 6%, that same monthly pays a $484,700 mortgage–all else equal, a property that is “worth” $800k with 3.5% mortgage rates, is “worth” $600k at 6% rates.
“but when was the last time a company that mattered moved their HQ to Chicago?”
My god, this again?
Uber Freight made Chicago its headquarters 2 years ago.
James Hardie has had its North American headquarters here for a few years but it just moved into a nice new offices, with their name on the outside of the building, on the River. They could have left and gone to Reno, sonies. But they didn’t.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/james-hardie-industries-celebrates-grand-opening-of-new-us-headquarters-301423297.html
These aren’t HQs but they’re investing in Chicago:
Deere opening its first Chicago office and will hire 150.
https://chicago.suntimes.com/business/2021/12/13/22832865/deere-open-fulton-market-office-tech-talent
lol uber freight is nothing, 750 employees in Chicago…
JHX is a largeish company with 5000 employees worldwide (probably less than 500 in chicago) that nobody gives a flying fuck about… they might actually hate them due to their asbestos scandals of years past
I said company that mattered which in my definition would actually make a dent in the labor market of chicago
Chicago is a global city and an economic powerhouse. I’d think you’d “get it” sonies now that you’ve moved to a metro area that is just a fraction of the size and doesn’t have the corporate firepower.
The Chicago metro area was the number one city for corporate investment last year. Again.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/chicago-named-top-corporate-metro-eight-years-in-a-row-301236907.html
Major corporate expansions last year reflected growth in top industries, from tech to life sciences to food and manufacturing, including Evozyne, Affirm, Aspen Dental, Blue Cross Blue Shield, Hillshire, Nature’s Fynd, Method Products, and Focal Point Lighting; citing Chicago’s diverse pipeline of talent, global connectivity and other core strengths as reasons why.
“We chose Chicago as our company’s headquarters because of access to skilled, educated, and diverse talent, ease of doing business, and our unique ability to grow our Fy Proteinä in a bustling city. Chicago has proven itself to be a continually-growing hub for food innovation and investment. From incubators to accelerators, to leading VC investment from coast-to-coast, and an incredibly supportive business community, Chicago is a driving force in increasing sustainable foods that nourish our bodies and our planet for generations to come,” said Nature’s Fynd CEO Thomas Jonas.
“A 1% rise in rates is going to create a 10% haircut in sales price”
Did home prices drop 10% in 2017 or 2018?
No?
LMFAO.
When have home prices EVER fallen 10% in Chicago? I’ll tell you. Only during the housing bust. When there was a massive bubble with investors/speculation/mortgage fraud. And even then, it took 4 years for prices to finally bottom.
Other than the Great Depression and the Great Recession, Chicago home prices have not gone down. Many years in the 1980s of NO appreciation. But no price declines.
“lol uber freight is nothing, 750 employees in Chicago…
JHX is a largeish company with 5000 employees worldwide (probably less than 500 in chicago) that nobody gives a flying fuck about… they might actually hate them due to their asbestos scandals of years past”
Wow- so now it’s a company that “matters” in sonies eyes.
Lol.
I’m so glad you left sonies. Because you don’t deserve a city like Chicago that is literally the industry leader in several key industries. Chicago has dozens of companies that you have never heard of that are crushing it like James Hardin (whose name, yes, is now on the side of the building.) Google has its name in Fulton Market. Great for it. But it’s all of these other great companies in manufacturing, construction, finance, tech that fly below the radar. Ever hear of Jim Beam? Yeah, they are in Chicago too. Do they “matter”?
Chicago has its Fortune 500 companies, of course.
But it’s the smaller companies that are the reason that Cooley Godward opened up an office in Chicago last year.
Chicago was fourth in the country in VC funding last year. We really trail the big boys of SF, Boston, NYC, but we have grown and that’s why Cooley decided to invest here. They wanted a piece of that business.
“Make a dent” in the labor market? Hiring hundreds of people isn’t “making a dent”? Wow.
Here’s a list from June of this year’s Chicago unicorns.
This is why Cooley opened here.
http://www.worldbusinesschicago.com/unicorns/
Oh sonies. It’s sad when you don’t see what is right in front of you.
This article lays out all of the industries in which Chicago has advantages and start-ups are developing here. Logistics, transportation, healthcare, lifesciences, agriculture, food, beverages.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterandrewwilkins/2021/12/16/why-chicago-became-a-top-3-start-up-city-in-2021/?sh=313a30815bff
Chicago’s status as one of the country’s hottest cities for start-ups continues to climb. The city’s venture ecosystem saw tremendous growth and broad expansion in 2021, from historic VC fund-raising to a record number of new unicorns to a plethora of promising new start-ups in the most lucrative sectors. All of these factors are solidifying Chicago’s position as the Midwest’s primary innovation hub, and arguably one of the country’s top three.
Just last week Corazon Capital joined twelve other Chicago-based venture capital firms that have raised a fund exceeding $100 million; collectively they’ve raised more than $5.7 billion dollars. This marks the first time in the city’s history that this many VCs crossed the nine-figure-fund threshold in a single year. In fact, ARCH Venture Partners and Valor Equity Partners raised $1.85 billion and $1.7 billion, respectively.
you would think housing prices would be booming with all that investment… hmmm I wonder why that isn’t the case?
shit here in Reno they built the stupid gigafactory and since then real estate prices have tripled!
More from the Tribune on the city’s tech start-up scene.
Additionally, 70 companies, in many industries, moved to Chicago in 2021.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-nashville-campaign-for-chicago-tech-workers-20211125-icmnhu6alngtharwuprr5ero7q-story.html
Fassnacht and Tullman both said Chicago has the three things you need for the tech industry to flourish — venture capital, several first-class universities and a talent pool created by those universities and colleges.
Despite the pandemic, roughly $3 billion in venture capital has flowed into local tech startups in 2020 and Fassnacht expects it will exceed $7 billion this year.
Another barometer of that success? This year 12 tech firms in Chicago reached “unicorn” status, an industry term for privately held companies valued at $1 billion or more. Overall the city counts 21 unicorns.
“you would think housing prices would be booming with all that investment… hmmm I wonder why that isn’t the case?”
It IS the case. Inventory for single family homes is less than 2 months in the city. Suburbs are similarly tight. They are building thousands of new apartments downtown.
“shit here in Reno they built the stupid gigafactory and since then real estate prices have tripled!”
Small city? When you add 1,000 jobs quickly, you have to build.
Also, Reno is now a retirement city so it’s benefiting from tons of retirees who are fleeing California. It’s “affordable” so the builders can’t keep up with Baby Boomer demand. Same with Las Vegas and Phoenix (again).
“People in Lakeshore East are getting unsolicited letters right now Stacy. I guess it’s hot!”
If they are getting calls to list their properties for double what they paid in 2016 then I agree with you but from what I see, prices are stagnant or trending down. Closing costs in Chicago are nearly 10% if you have an agent so you gotta sell that $500k property for $550K just to break even.
When I originally moved to Chicago I bought a 1bd condo for $170k. I put in $10k of upgrades and sold for $210k. 10+ years later it sold for $230k that then included a $25k parking spot. Today zillow it is worth about the same. So 20 years ago it has appreciated a little over 10%. Taxes are up 50%. Assessments up more than 50%.
I’m sure there are some people making money on real estate in Chicago but likely they bought before 2000 and sold in 2007 or bought in 2011/early 2012 and sold in 2016.
Also, if you’re a 22 year old soon to be college graduate, do you want to move to Reno with its gigafactory or Chicago with 21 unicorns?
I’m not saying its not a great place to be when you’re young and get your career started… those people aren’t buying houses anyways! They rent.
but what happens when these kids want to start families… yeah.. they aren’t paying $5 a sqft/month to live in some tiny shoebox in a hot neighborhood
“Did home prices drop 10% in 2017 or 2018?”
No but they did drop. Part of that was expectation
“Other than the Great Depression and the Great Recession, Chicago home prices have not gone down. Many years in the 1980s of NO appreciation. But no price declines.”
Sure Smolette – https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=CHXRMTNSA,CHXRCNSA,CHXRHTNSA,
Should read
Part of that was expectation that rates wouldn’t stay high for long. This time it isnt the case
“Also, if you’re a 22 year old soon to be college graduate, do you want to move to Reno with its gigafactory or Chicago with 21 unicorns?”
Probably neither as they’re all going to Nashville, Florida, ATL, etc
If you like outdoor activities – probably Reno
If you like being in a bIG CiTY that you need to be home by 9PM – Probably Chicago
“Sure Smolette”
Are you really citing to a non-seasonally adjusted chart that shows the declines all in the (long) aftermath of the “great recession”?
This is the better visualization, and goes back to ’87:
https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/series?seid=CHXRSA
Not a lot of down there, other than the 5 years from spring 07 top to spring 12 bottom (yeah, yeah, GR didn’t start til ’08–but it really started in 07)
Thanks for confirming with a nice chart what I said JohnnyU.
Chicago real estate declined in the Great Recession. Otherwise, it hasn’t. And rising rates won’t cause a home price decline either.
You need INVENTORY. Duh. Like 2008-2012.
’s “affordable” so the builders can’t keep up with Baby Boomer demand. Same with Las Vegas and Phoenix (again).
Vegas WAS affordable. Desirable communities like “The ridges” in Summerlin are getting California fever prices.
800k -> 1.6 in 2 years
https://www.redfin.com/NV/Henderson/394-Tranquil-Peak-Ct-89012/home/167784826
1.1 -> 2.7 in 2 years
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2215-Overlook-Canyon-Ln-Henderson-NV-89052/243074814_zpid/
937k to 2.2 in 5 years
https://www.zillow.com/homes/78-Pristine-Glen-St-Summerlin,-NV-89135_rb/141739151_zpid/
ThE RiCh DoNt MoVe To AvOiD TaXeS
“I’m not saying its not a great place to be when you’re young and get your career started… those people aren’t buying houses anyways! They rent.”
According to national data that was just in the WSJ this week, about 3%-4% of all mortgages in 2021 were taken out by GenZ. Go figure.
Over 67% of mortgages are now taken by Millennials, which isn’t surprising.
Interesting to see how many of the Silent Generation are still taking out mortgages. The youngest are about 77 years old. Lol.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/millennials-are-supercharging-the-housing-market-11639496815
“If they are getting calls to list their properties for double what they paid in 2016 then I agree with you but from what I see, prices are stagnant or trending down.”
I’m really tired of discussing what your definition of “hot” is Stacy. No offense. But, yeah, unsolicited offers from realtors are usually an indication of a “hot” market. If your new goal post is that it must be two times what you paid for it, then, no, Chicago isn’t that hot. And if that’s happening in Florida, then I really recommend the bubble books about Florida real estate describing what was happening in 1920 to 1926, which describes exactly what you are describing to a tee.
It’s amazing how many times Florida has had a real estate mania.
“ThE RiCh DoNt MoVe To AvOiD TaXeS”
If you were a retiree from California, owned your house for the past 30 or 40 years, and could move to a nearby state, get “more” house for cheaper and have less taxes, wouldn’t you?
California is NOT a good state for most retirees.
“Chicago real estate declined in the Great Recession. Otherwise, it hasn’t. And rising rates won’t cause a home price decline either.”
Obviously, you dont know what a negative slope means
“Not a lot of down there, other than the 5 years from spring 07 top to spring 12 bottom (yeah, yeah, GR didn’t start til ’08–but it really started in 07)”
If I were dealing with a sand & sober individual, your chart would be better
But since we’re not and Smollette likes to deal in absolutes, then the chart I posted is fine
” If I was thinking of selling downtown, I would wait, if I could, at least one to two more years. The inventory has to be absorbed. In every other neighborhood outside of downtown, inventory is already at record lows and there are plenty of buyers. It’s still a sellers market. You will make money. ”
I think two years is still too conservative unless you’re just selling a 1 BDR downtown or hope to at best break even on a 2/2 that was a pre-COVID buy with no updates. More like five years if you want to make money, especially if you put anything into a 2 or 3 BDR unit.
Just checking our building on Redfin, I see:
A 2/2 that was sold for $5K over the purchase price in 2014 (so actually a loss with closing fees, even given no updates)
Another 2/2 that was $40K under the purchase price in 2016
A 3/3 that sold for $100K over the sales price in 2004, but was reduced 25% over the list price back to the summer of 2020 (and I happen to know it probably had almost $100K in updates)
Another 3/3 that sold for $200K over the original purchase in 2013, but back then was purchased as a short sale for $170K under the list price back in 2004
We’re on the seam between the Loop and the West Loop, but clearly still feeling the market distress. And I’d rent a 1 before buying a 1 unless you’re a 30-something single looking to settle down for the long run.
If you are thinking about selling then the only thing you should consider is what the price of the place you want sell v the price of the place you want to buy. The ratio is all that matters. If you think Chicago is +10% next year and the new area you like will be +20% then you sell now. If the opposite then you wait.
The government clearly wants more lockdowns and restrictions. Does that favor where you live or where you want to move? That’ll help you determine prices moving forward.
“If you were a retiree from California, owned your house for the past 30 or 40 years, and could move to a nearby state, get “more” house for cheaper and have less taxes, wouldn’t you?”
“California is NOT a good state for most retirees.”
In your scenario it would be a great place to retire. Google prop 13. property assessments can’t go up more than 2% per year and property taxes are limited to 1% of the assessed value. This state law has been in place since the 1970’s.
California tried to repeal these limits for commercial and industrial properties only but it failed last November 52/48.
“In your scenario it would be a great place to retire.”
No, it’s terrible. They tax income. Everyone knows this. I personally know many middle class retirees who fled the state upon retirement even after owning their homes for 30 to 40 years.
And, yes, WP, I know all about Prop 13. But many other states/cities have senior citizen property tax exemptions, like Chicago does, so Prop 13 isn’t really a “selling” point for California retirement.
“The government clearly wants more lockdowns and restrictions. Does that favor where you live or where you want to move? That’ll help you determine prices moving forward.”
Which “government”?
Here’s who has now lockdown or put on pretty severe restrictions:
1. Netherlands (complete 4 week lockdown)
2. Norway (partial on eating/drinking indoors)
3. Denmark (partial on eating/drinking indoors and on movie theaters)
4. Ireland (hospitality curfew and limiting indoor sports fans to 50% of capacity)
5. France (ban on UK tourists coming in)
6. Poland (closed nightclubs but will re-open them on Dec 31 and Jan 1 so NYE celebrations can take place. Lol.)
7. Germany (restrictions on those from Denmark, UK, Norway)
8. Spain (restricting the unvaccinated from indoor events like dining)
9. Switzerland (banned unvaccinated from indoor dining and cultural events)
10. Austria (imposed strict restrictions 3 weeks ago but has now begun easing them as they have bent the curve)
In the United States, several big cities have restrictions on indoor dining against the unvaccinated including Los Angeles and New York.
No one is in a lockdown or other mandatory shutdowns.
However, there is a “stealth” shutdown happening in some big cities like NY and Chicago as businesses, especially restaurants, are having big COVID outbreaks and are shutting down to handle it. Dozens of restaurants have closed, temporarily, in NYC in the last 3 days.
“I think two years is still too conservative unless you’re just selling a 1 BDR downtown or hope to at best break even on a 2/2 that was a pre-COVID buy with no updates. More like five years if you want to make money, especially if you put anything into a 2 or 3 BDR unit.”
It’s all about supply and demand, right West Loop Gater?
Once inventory drops below 6 months, it’s a sellers market.
Those who sold last year, sold when inventory was over 12 months. Little demand so they had no choice but to lower their price if they wanted out. But those “deals” are mostly gone now. Inventory has shrunk dramatically in the last 12 months.
But there will be “sub-markets.” It doesn’t matter to the seller of a $300,000 1-bedroom how many 3-bedrooms are on the market in the Vista, for instance. Additionally, certain neighborhoods will have more demand than others.
The Loop may take longer to recover than Lakeshore East, where realtors are cold calling owners of 1-bedrooms asking if they are willing to sell right now.
Similarly, Gold Coast may take longer than Printers Row.
Additionally, as you know, certain buildings have always out performed others. And so you really have to look at the inventory in that particular building. There are always buyers looking in particular buildings and are willing to pay a premium for when a unit comes on the market.