Market Conditions: August Inventory Fell 7.1% YOY as Sales Fell to 13-Year Lows
The Illinois Association of Realtors is out with the August 2024 data.
The Chicago market remained extremely tight with inventory and sales falling again.
“The city of Chicago saw a 7.1 percent year-over-year home sales decrease in August 2024 with 2,083 sales, down from 2,242 in August 2023. The median price of a home in the city of Chicago in August 2024 was $355,000, an increase of 7.1 percent from August 2023 when the median price was $331,500.”
August sales since 2007:
- August 2007: 2923 sales
- August 2008: 2078 sales
- August 2009: 1927 sales
- August 2010: 1486 sales
- August 2011: 1787 sales
- August 2012: 2209 sales
- August 2013: 2850 sales
- August 2014: 2414 sales
- August 2015: 2701 sales
- August 2016: 2844 sales
- August 2017: 2791 sales
- August 2018: 2754 sales
- August 2019: 2601 sales
- August 2020: 2870 sales
- August 2021: 2919 sales
- August 2022: 2354 sales
- August 2023: 2242 sales
- August 2024: 2083 sales
August Median Sales Price
- August 2007: $305,000
- August 2008: $297,500
- August 2009: $229,900
- August 2010: $200,000
- August 2011: $192,500
- August 2012: $200,000
- August 2013: $245,000
- August 2014: $269,500
- August 2015: $271,000
- August 2016: $271,000
- August 2017: $284,000
- August 2018: $280,000
- August 2019: $289,900
- August 2020: $335,000
- August 2021: $335,000
- August 2022: $315,000
- August 2023: $331.500
- August 2024: $355,000
“In August, a decrease in closed sales were reflective of Chicago’s limited inventory as sellers consider the balance of a fast selling and competitive buying market,” Erika Villegas, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and broker and owner of RE/MAX In the Village said. “Work with your local REALTOR® and a lender so you can take action when the opportunity arises.”
Inventory is finally moving HIGHER statewide. Statewide, inventory rose 8% to 21,932 homes from 20,315 homes in August 2023.
Chicagoland is also seeing higher inventory as it rose 6.8% to 14,975 from 14,023 properties.
Only Chicago is still seeing declining inventory, where it fell 8.5% to 5,048 from 5,515 last year.
For multi-year comparisons:
Statewide Inventory:
- 34,083 in August 2021
- 29,084 in August 2022
- 20,315 in August 2023 (down 30% year-over-year)
- 21,932 in August 2024 (up 8% yoy)
Chicago Inventory:
- 9,231 in August 2021
- 7,999 in August 2022
- 5,515 in August 2023 (down 30.9% year-over-year)
- 5,048 in August 2024 (down another 8.5% yoy)
The 30-year fixed rate mortgage in August 2024 was 6.5%, down from 6.84% in July 2024 and down sharply from last year when it averaged 7.07%.
Do the mortgage rates even matter for home sales anymore when inventory is this low?
Illinois home sales fall while inventory and median prices rise in August [Illinois Association of Realtors, Press Release, September 19, 2024]
“Do the mortgage rates even matter for home sales anymore when inventory is this low?”
Rates always matter.
“In August, a decrease in closed sales were reflective of Chicago’s limited inventory as sellers consider the balance of a fast selling and competitive buying market,”
I think sellers are more concerned with the financing costs, inflation and property taxes vs a “fast selling” market.
“Rates always matter.”
Rates aren’t impacting Chicago home sales at all. Neither positively, nor negatively. But lower rates could mean prices rise further as more people come out to buy and there are more bidding wars.
“Rates aren’t impacting Chicago home sales at all. Neither positively, nor negatively. But lower rates could mean prices rise further as more people come out to buy and there are more bidding wars.”
This is 100% false
“This is 100% false”
Nope. Data doesn’t lie. And we’ve had the data for over two years.
Sorry bears. Your doom and gloom has failed. First, Bob the Bear was on this site telling us all that once the foreclosure freeze was lifted, there would be thousands of foreclosures and housing prices would collapse.
Never happened.
Then, mortgage rates rose over 7% for nearly two years. Housing prices were supposed to collapse then too. JohnnyU and other bears kept insisting that no one would pay $550,000 for that 2/2 that was $450,000 with a 3% rate just a year before. But they DID. And they STILL are.
Chicago median prices continue to rise. It’s the mix, of course, but the prices on the high end are certainly holding up to get $355,000 median.
Tell us you don’t know how a median is calculated without saying “I don’t know how a median is calculated”:
“the prices on the high end are certainly holding up to get $355,000 median.”
“Then, mortgage rates rose over 7% for nearly two years. Housing prices were supposed to collapse then too. JohnnyU and other bears kept insisting that no one would pay $550,000 for that 2/2 that was $450,000 with a 3% rate just a year before. But they DID. And they STILL are.”
This has nothing to do with supply. Just typical Sabrina gaslighting
“Chicago median prices continue to rise. It’s the mix, of course, but the prices on the high end are certainly holding up to get $355,000 median.”
Google the difference between MEAN and MEDIAN
Embarassing
“This has nothing to do with supply. Just typical Sabrina gaslighting”
Never said it did. But your theory that people would NOT buy that 2/2 condo that has gone up in price with 7% mortgage rates was WRONG. You kept assuming that people would somehow be priced out. It turned out my theory that they would trade down to the lower price point and buy anyway, is what happened.
Also, buyers go off the reality in front of them. They get approved for a certain mortgage amount and look for properties that satisfy that. They don’t think, “oh, two years ago I could have bought XYZ which was bigger and nicer for the same amount.” They deal with the reality which is TODAY.
But don’t fret JohnnyU. I, too, didn’t get the real estate story right. I never thought Chicago would be one of the cities which would see rising prices with mortgage rates over 7%. But I never anticipated record low inventory that would stay that low for 2+ years. And, unless there is drastic home building in the next few years, is likely to stay that low for some time to come.
However, there is the possibility of more apartment to condo conversions which will add more inventory. We’ve already seen this part of the cycle starting. But it still doesn’t add that many new units in some neighborhoods like Lakeview or Lincoln Park. It could add a couple thousand units in Fulton Market though.
Fully admit that I thought that prices would drop. See it is possible to admit that you’re wrong and survive.
Though I dont think its a universal “buying down” as you’d see a lot more pressure in 2nd tier locations (SL & Further south). Small sample size but I’ve seen more “stretching” or parental help in purchasing
But back to the topic, we were talking about supply, not pricing. Lets see if you can stop with the gaslighting and admit that interest rates are suppressing supply
I am not hopeful