A Housing Market Slowdown? A Townhouse in Old Town at 210 W. Scott
This 3-bedroom townhouse in Old Town Square at 210 W. Scott in Old Town came on the market in June 2018.
This townhouse development was built in 1997 and has 59 units.
The listing says it is “move-in ready.”
It has new carpet in the bedrooms and refinished hardwood floors.
The kitchen has modern white cabinets, stainless steel appliances, quartz countertops and a breakfast bar.
It has the preferred layout with all three bedrooms on the third floor.
The master bedroom has vaulted ceilings and an ensuite bathroom with double vanity.
There’s a family room on the first floor.
It has central air and a private rooftop deck.
The townhouse also has a rare, for a townhouse, two car attached garage.
This particular townhouse is behind a gated entrance just a half a block off of Wells Street with shops and restaurants just steps away.
Originally listed in June 2018 for $950,000, it has been reduced $25,112 to $924,888.
Why are so many properties in “hot” neighborhoods sitting on the market unsold?
Matt Laricy at Americorp has the listing. See the pictures here.
Unit #C: 3 bedrooms, 3 baths, no square footage listed (but in 2013 it was listed with 2400 square feet)
- Sold in June 2013 for $665,000
- Originally listed in June 2018 for $950,000
- Reduced
- Currently listed at $924,888
- Assessments of $110 a month (includes exterior maintenance, lawn care, scavenger and snow removal)
- Taxes of $15,435
- Central Air
- 2-car attached garage
- Bedroom #1: 17×13 (third floor)
- Bedroom #2: 10×12 (third floor)
- Bedroom #3: 8×12 (third floor)
- Family room: 19×16 (main floor)
- Laundry room: 4×6 (third floor)
- Private rooftop deck: 22×20 (fourth floor)
I like the look of this complex, although the walkway between the units looks like it would be an echo chamber.
I hate the interior of this place. It needs to be repainted, the floors need to be refinished, and the bathrooms need new tiles. I wonder how what the pricing is for non-renovated townhouses here.
Sabrina, is there any way you can make it so my posts don’t need approval every time? I’m about to give up on this site.
Guessing because the neighbor is a Cubs fan
must be grey week! or is it gray week?
Seriously looks like a lot of the photos were done black and white and I can’t believe this is the “in style” now… I wonder how many years until the grey becomes taboo like beige
There was a shooting homicide last Friday across Division near the park, a triple shooting two weeks ago in the park and a drive by the week before that…Old Town, or south Old Town is reverting back to being gang land open air drug market. My guess is prices are topped out or bubbly most everywhere, buyers are tapped out, rate hikes, even small ones are having effects, and lets talk about the taxes! That $15K is guaranteed to go up another 20% in the next assessment, hell they probably put it on the market just to get away from the taxes that are coming.
tl/dr; crime, garbage, ghetto at end of block, increasing taxes outweigh easy access to bro bars for almost a million $
what is with this editing effect we’ve been seeing on a lot of listing photos. if i were on owner listing a place, i’d want my place looking as natural as possible, not something seen on instagram. just look at the recessed lights and the dark circles (shadows?) around them. makes it look dingy.
marco on September 13th, 2018 at 9:24 am
just look at the recessed lights and the dark circles
This is a symptom of an inexperienced photographer or photo-assistant that is jacking up the HDR (high-dynamic-range) or “Shadow/Highlight” filter in Photoshop/Lightroom. The excessive tone-mapping gives it that soft dark halo-ing effect around the edges of highlights because it’s trying to balance out the difference between the super-bright areas and dark areas. Glad I’m not the only one who notices that garbage.
TL;DR – it’s a filter you should use in moderation that wasn’t used in moderation.
“Why are so many properties in “hot” neighborhoods sitting on the market unsold?”
Probably because they’re overpriced. Serious question: What metrics constitute a market “slowdown”? If sales growth drops, listing-time increases, inventory drops, and median sale prices keep going up, is that technically a slowdown even though demand for housing is high/increasing? Last I checked people still want to live in Old Town.
agreed on the above that area is literally an open air drug market, I was at a $1mm open house and looked out the window and there was literally a drug deal that went down exchanging cash and furtive hand gestures as the broker tried to imply the neighborhood is in transition
“I was at a $1mm open house and looked out the window and there was literally a drug deal that went down exchanging cash and furtive hand gestures as the broker tried to imply the neighborhood is in transition.”
Nothing brings out the cops like a bunch of whites in million-dollar houses complaining to the Alderman. I’m surprised the broker didn’t tell you it was your patriotic duty to buy the house and help clean up Chicago.
“Why are so many properties in “hot” neighborhoods sitting on the market unsold?” They’re not. Despite rumors to the effect that the market is slowing down inventory remains low and market times fast, though there have been some recent shifts for condos in these metrics. Check out the Lincoln Park data: https://lucidrealty.com/lincoln_park.php
SFHs are a different story though.
“That $15K is guaranteed to go up another 20% in the next assessment”
First pass re-assessment is 24% higher–889,080.
“First pass re-assessment is 24% higher–889,080.”
As Gary pointed out in his Chicagonow column, that doesn’t mean your taxes will go up by the same percentage, as we don’t know the rate yet.
Still, it promises to be a thumping big packet, so your $3,000 increase in taxes probably isn’t far off.
My assessment went up 28 percent. I dread the news come February, even if my appeal is successful.
“Probably because they’re overpriced.”
This. I personally wouldn’t care for the location. (I like Old Town north of North, and certainly not that close to Division, so the location would not be for me, but I don’t think it’s hard to sell properties in that area or that they’ve become unpopular due to crime. The owner is just pricing too aggressively.)
Both the place I just sold and the place I just bought got totally slammed with the reassessment. The place I bought got assessed for more than what I had just paid, which was infuriating. Will see about the appeals.
What, only one picture of the awesome cardboard box and trash bin in the garage?
“As Gary pointed out in his Chicagonow column, that doesn’t mean your taxes will go up by the same percentage, as we don’t know the rate yet.”
The rate is the last thing that gets calculated.
We have a pretty good idea about the levy (higher than this year, by at least 5%, but prob less than 10%).
We have partial insight into the Aggregate Assessed Value (by township):
Rogers Park: +18% for SFH/TH/2-6 unit; +20% for condos
Lake View: +31%; +28%
Hyde Park: -0.3%; +10%
Jefferson: +18%; +19%
Lake: +6%; +13%
West: +12%; +12%
North: +23%; +19%
South: +14%; +23%
(balance of City areas re-assessed on suburban cycle for their townships)
That looks to me like an overall of ~+15%. Residential is about 60% of the Aggregate value in the city, so commercial and industrial assessments are a wildcard that can have a substantial effect on the direction and velocity of the rate change.
Taking all that, I would say that an optimist should plan on their property taxes being (this years tax)+(5%+(AV Change-15)%); and a pessimist should plan on (this years tax)+(10%+(AV Change-15)%); and a disaster artist on (this years tax)+(20%+(AV Change-15)%). So, for this place, between +15% and +20% (with a oh shit of +30%), unless an appeal is filed and won.
Both of my places (old and new) were within Lake View. The new one’s assessed value went up 62%. It was underassessed before, I admit, but they over corrected. Looks like the old one did well vs. the township (up 21%).
“Why are so many properties in “hot” neighborhoods sitting on the market unsold?”
Inventory doesn’t tell you much.
But I’ve been doing this site for 10 years and it’s been at least 4 to 5 years since I’ve had the luxury of taking pictures of properties and then posting on them 3 to 4 months later (because they’re still unsold.) Is this every property? No. But it’s a ton.
Heck, I haven’t even gone out to take new pictures in the past 2 years because the property would already be under contract by the time I got there.
Not right now. Realtors are telling me they’re doing price reductions and NO ONE requests a showing (now priced under what the same unit below sold for just 4 months ago.) They’re also holding open houses and NO ONE shows up. Even in 80 degree beautiful weather. They’re also writing me and asking me to feature their properties. That hasn’t happened since 2012-2013.
It’s really bizarre.
This is happening all over the GreenZone.
I’ll start covering the properties that have been listed for 4+ months. Yes, some likely started out overpriced but they’re not now. And they’re not SFHs.
“Sabrina, is there any way you can make it so my posts don’t need approval every time? I’m about to give up on this site.”
There’s nothing I can do. You’re approved until you’re not. I hope the new site corrects it but there’s no guarantee.
Sorry Jenny! I don’t know what else I can do.
“Inventory doesn’t tell you much.
But I’ve been doing this site for 10 years and it’s been at least 4 to 5 years since I’ve had the luxury of taking pictures of properties and then posting on them 3 to 4 months later (because they’re still unsold.) Is this every property? No. But it’s a ton.”
I’ve looked at the data several different ways. Market times are just not that high either, although condo market times rose slightly but SFH market times dropped. Yeah, SFHs above $1 MM market times are up from a few years ago but flat to last year. I don’t know what all the buzz is about.
its true, market has definitely slowed down a ton all over the country vs just 6 months ago, obviously its the end of the selling season but still
Sabrina, is there any way you can make it so my posts don’t need approval every time? I’m about to give up on this site.
jenny, I was having the same issue and I posted with a new email address and have been fine (using that email) ever since.
There have been a few sales in my neighborhood (Western Suburbs) recently where I thought the homes went for much more than they should have. Of the 7 sales, 5 put down 5-7.5%, one put down 10 and the other 20. These homes are in the 450-700k range. Are those type of loans what is enabling this market or is this just a small sample size?
“This is happening all over the GreenZone. ”
Is there any consensus amongst real estate people as to what attributes make up a green zone, and what neighborhoods (r.e. agent contortions of “neighborhood” cheerfully accepted) are in Chicago’s “green zone?”
I know what it means to me. I’m just curious as to what others use as criteria when they see an area and think “This’ll be green zone in 8 years.”
“Green Zone” is purely a Cribchatter construct. Real estate agents don’t have such a concept.
I just remember that bungalows are to green zones like garlic/crosses/mirrors are to vampires.
http://www.chicagonow.com/mysteries-of-life/2014/03/the-green-zone-litmus-test/
“Is there any consensus amongst real estate people as to what attributes make up a green zone, and what neighborhoods (r.e. agent contortions of “neighborhood” cheerfully accepted) are in Chicago’s “green zone?””
As Gary said, the term “Green Zone” isn’t used by real estate agents. It’s an entirely Cribchatter term.
We have had many debates over the years as to what constitutes it. Apparently, Logan Square is not yet in it even though it’s one of the hottest neighborhoods. Did we ever decided if Andersonville was now in it? Edgewater is not.
It takes a long time for a neighborhood to be considered “safe” enough to be in the Green Zone (safe in terms of, if you buy something there, the price will hold up). I’m not sure 8 years is long enough. Look how long it has taken Wicker Park to be considered gentrified. They were throwing bricks through the windows of the Starbucks on Damen around 2000. It’s now 2018 and no one blinks an eye that there’s a Stan’s Donuts from Los Angeles.
How long does it take to hold the value? 10 years? 20 years? 30 years to make it in?
“Are those type of loans what is enabling this market or is this just a small sample size?”
Less than 10% down has been around for the last 5 years. You’ll pay PMI though. Even 3% down is doable these days.
How many people have 10% down on a $700,000 house if they are first time purchasers? Not that many.
“I don’t know what all the buzz is about.”
Anyone else still read the paper edition of the Red Eye?
I know. I know.
It’s only published on Thursdays-Fridays now (one weekend edition every week) but suddenly there are ads in the Red Eye for properties. Specific listings. This hasn’t happened for years either.
First, you have to be having trouble selling a property if you are looking around for alternative ways to get buyers in the door (like advertising in the local weekly paper).
Second, you have to know, because the lead time for the ad is probably a week or two, that you will still have trouble selling it by the time the ad appears or else it’s a worthless ad and a waste of money.
Three, is the ad worth your money as an agent (or to your client- if they’re footing the bill)?
THAT’S how quickly this market has slowed down for certain properties.
There were two ads in this week’s Redeye. One for a south loop penthouse condo, which just went contingent AFTER the ad appeared- 29 days on the market, and a Logan Square condo which was already contingent when the ad came out but was 27 days on the market.
Why pay for those ads at all if its hot, hot, like the spring where condos were under contract the first week on the market, sometimes with multiple offers?
Makes no sense.
Except the market is changing.
“like the spring where condos were under contract the first week on the market,” Let’s put this in perspective. Only 30% of all new listings in the spring went under contract in two weeks.
http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2018/08/chicago-real-estate-market-how-fast-homes-have-been-selling-in-2018/
The only indication of a slowdown that I can find in the data is contract activity down over 11% in August. We’ll see how that impacts September.
Sabrina: “Apparently, Logan Square is not yet in it even though it’s one of the hottest neighborhoods. Did we ever decided if Andersonville was now in it? Edgewater is not.
It takes a long time for a neighborhood to be considered “safe” enough to be in the Green Zone (safe in terms of, if you buy something there, the price will hold up).”
Not to roast old chestnuts, but I can tell you as a fact that both Wicker Park and Bucktown were gentrifying rapidly in the in the late 1980s and definitely in the early 1990s. I still remember drug deals going down in the alley next to my apartment on Shakespeare in the heart of Bucktown (midway between Damen and Western) in the late 1980s. Bucktown (ahem — north of Armitage)) was the hottest neighborhood in Chicago. Prices held up.
I got the impression that green zone (greenzone if you prefer) refers to something more than simply urban values holding their own. It involved a frisson of economic and cultural change including market stability and price increases.
So, for example, the gold coast is not green zone in my book. The economic and social change is gone, and it is simply static socially and in terms of economic dynamism. Hence bungalows was/is a good proxy for not being green zone — lots of bungalow owners = not lots of artists/actors/young upthrusters/people-idiotic-to-think-Starbucks-is-worth-it. Where stand you on this?
Here’s a thought experiment for you: Is Bronzeville — hot by anyone’s definition — greenzone? If not, why not?
“First, you have to be having trouble selling a property if you are looking around for alternative ways to get buyers in the door (like advertising in the local weekly paper).”
my house is finally under contract, we had a shitload of people come through the door but very few offers, so we’re accepting one far below our ask price which is fine and its what I thought it would sell for but the market is definitely competitive for 700k+ properties
and as for johnc’s comment above are you shitting me? Gold coast is the heart of the green zone… and Bronzeville is nowhere close, shit Pilsen probably wouldn’t even be considered green zone and that is a far nicer and safer neighborhood with way more amenities than shitty ass Bronzeville
“the gold coast is not green zone in my book”
must be self-published.
“Pilsen probably wouldn’t even be considered green zone”
Logan (east half-ish) is waaaaay more GZ-qualified than any part of Pilsen.
Keep in mind that that’s the same book that has Bucktown starting at Armitage. It was written in the 80s and hasn’t been updated since.
“Keep in mind that that’s the same book that has Bucktown starting at Armitage. It was written in the 80s and hasn’t been updated since.”
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That’s the book on boundaries (they’re static, not fluid. That’s what makes them boundaries), not neighborhood character. So the 80s will do just fine. Character can change almost overnight, hence my question (“green zone” not being a neighborhood boundary, after all, but apparently some sort of state of being).
As for greenzone, like I said, I thought green zone involved more than just urban values holding their own. Since it appears that the bungalow belt is not, and cannot be, green zone, I figured a dynamic social and economic scene was the qualifier. Gold coast is rich, but socially and economically vibrant? Meh. It’s money chasing after money.
I never mentioned Pilsen. Cook County Jail puts a damper on things, I imagine.
” boundaries (they’re static, not fluid. That’s what makes them boundaries)”
Yep, no boundaries have changed since the 80s, anywhere. Nope, not even one. Otherwise, they couldn’t have been boundaries.
That big wall? Oh, that’s not a boundary, just a wall. Walls can be torn down, but not boundaries.
“Yep, no boundaries have changed since the 80s, anywhere. Nope, not even one. Otherwise, they couldn’t have been boundaries.
That big wall? Oh, that’s not a boundary, just a wall. Walls can be torn down, but not boundaries.”
You’re catching on.
CCCP forever, amirite!
Personally, I think Green Zone is any zip code with a median household income of $75K+. If you look at where those are it contains the usual suspects: Along the lake from Lake View to South Loop, West Loop, Wicker Park, Bucktown (which stops at North Ave), etc…
“Personally, I think Green Zone is any zip code with a median household income of $75K+.”
I’m old school, which means that one can buy a house up to 2.5X gross income. $75k gives a median house price of $187,500. Stretch that to 3X income (money being fluid, unlike borders), and we’re at a median house price of $225k. Does that kind of housing stock ($225k median price) comport with the cribchatter consensus of green zone?
Let’s take out the renters from the body of people in a ZIP code earning a median of $75k household, and consider just the median income of homeowners (who can very well be renting out their two-flat). Take the house prices of places all agree are green zone, what would that give as a proxy for income and age of owners? Doing the same with apartment buildings in the green zone (since renters count as part of a neighborhood’s character) and I bet one can find a reasonably objective means of distinguishing why one area is green zone while another is not even though both have housing that retains value.
“any zip code with a median household income of $75K+”
Zip codes are too crude outside of the greater loop. Some of them are (relatively) huge. And the western end of ’22 (Kedzie, from Chicago to Division), ain’t GZ. But BT (whichever definition) is in ’47, with a median HHI of ~$62k, and therefor not GZ, even tho it clearly is.
You can look at census tract:
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20130108/BLOGS08/130109821/map-shows-chicago-s-richest-and-poorest-neighborhoods
You can only look so long before it wants you to pay, though, so I am no longer able to check anything.
“But BT (whichever definition) is in ’47, with a median HHI of ~$62k, and therefor not GZ, even tho it clearly is.”
I think teasing out the renters’ incomes (and proxy for rents from that) from the owners’ incomes would show owners’ incomes as well over $75k in Bucktown (or the North end of Wicker Park and any space between, for that matter).
ZIP codes do present problems, but if green zone is a state of mind, ZIPs may be a proxy for where to find green zone neighborhoods.
So I was debating between census tract and zip code. Zip code is too big but census tract is too small – you end up getting holes in the middle of a community area.
Johnc, it’s hard to relate median income and median home prices. You have a lot of people living in expensive homes with lower incomes because either they got in low or they’ve got a lot of equity in the home. Then, as you point out, you have a substantial renter population. For instance, the median HH income in 60657 (kinda Lake View) is $84K. You won’t get your math to work there.
“you end up getting holes in the middle of a community area.”
Well, you start with census tracts, and apply a rule about adjacent tracts.
As a ‘hole’ example–there’s the former Cabrini zone. Completely surrounded by GZ census tracts, but is it itself GZ? All of it? Some of it? Obviously not the remaining Cabrini townhomes themselves, but those are in the same census tract as the Montgomery and the Hudson next door, so …which is that tract?
That’s exactly the example I was thinking of. Nevertheless, we think of the Near North Side as green zone, though people often subconsciously exclude several blocks from that definition.
“Johnc, it’s hard to relate median income and median home prices. You have a lot of people living in expensive homes with lower incomes because either they got in low or they’ve got a lot of equity in the home.”
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Very true, Gary, but some idea about turnover might help in applying Kentucky windage to the numbers. And as we all know, I look at green zone as being more a state of mind (see the reaction my comment about the Gold Coast not being in it) than anything else. Not edgy/hipster/artist (think Wicker Park in the late 1980s/early 1990s, when prostitutes and drug dealers openly roamed North Avenue (and several blocks North of North Avenue)), but not bourgeois bungalow belt or establishment rich (Gold Coast) either.
So to me, Lincoln Park (which the “fluid borders” amoungst you might well extend to Wellington, I believe the street was) and Lake View will always be green zone due to high rental turnover and no bungalows, while Mayfair and Old Irving Park will never be green zone.
I’m just wondering if green zone is like porn to cribchatter-ers — you know it when you see it — or if there’s some criteria that might be applied to roughly gauge what areas are GZ.
“Personally, I think Green Zone is any zip code with a median household income of $75K+.”
No, it was never about incomes. It was about certain neighborhoods being immune from big price drops and were, therefore, safe. I.e. like the “green zone” in Iraq. They have a wall of protection around them.
“Gold coast is rich, but socially and economically vibrant? Meh. It’s money chasing after money.”
No, you have it wrong. Gold Coast is in the Green Zone because it’s safe. Home values aren’t going to skyrocket there, but they’re not going to crash either. You have protection there.
Green Zone was dubbed in the dark times. Where did you want to buy in 2010-2011 when home prices kept sliding? Where was “safe”?
There was a list of neighborhoods where it was considered thus.
“Not to roast old chestnuts, but I can tell you as a fact that both Wicker Park and Bucktown were gentrifying rapidly in the in the late 1980s and definitely in the early 1990s.”
Gentrifying has nothing to do with “green zone” status.
“Here’s a thought experiment for you: Is Bronzeville — hot by anyone’s definition — greenzone? If not, why not?”
Bronzeville is not green zone. No one, until now, has ever called it that. It’s not safe enough as a purchase (I’m not talking about crime statistics.)
Green Zone has been the following neighborhoods (in the past):
Loop
South Loop, including Printers Row
West Loop
Wicker Park
Bucktown
River North
Streeterville
Gold Coast
Old Town
Lincoln Park
Lakeview
Unclear about:
Andersonville
Parts of Logan Square
If we went by zip code incomes then Beverly area would be in it and probably parts of Edgebrook or Sauganash. That’s why zip codes/incomes don’t have anything to do with it.
Green Zone is where you buy for safety. When the shit is hitting the fan economically, where do you go for protection?
There are only a handful or two of neighborhoods that give you that.
Where could one go for safety? Two words for you: Pill Hill. Is it green zone?
There are even very few realtors dumb enough to think LO extends to Wellington.
*LP
“There are even very few realtors dumb enough to think LO extends to Wellington.”
There was a posting earlier (different thread) about a r.e. agent trying to convince the poster that L.P. ran to Wellington. Hence my tongue in cheek reference.
I was the one who brought up Wellington, and that was about how back in the old, old days (1990s, early 2000s), when you’d look at ads in the Reader and the Trib, you’d see properties (for sale or rent) between Diversey and Wellington described as Lincoln Park. It was something I remember joking about, that the boundaries of LP would be expanded, since at the time — certainly mid 90s — lots of people who moved to Chicago would immediately think LP (at least in my experience, coming from, yes, a Big10 school). Personally, I only lived in LP for a year and then converted to Lakeview, first ELV and later Southport.
My point was that such silly puffery, while common, DID NOT change the boundary of LP, so I think it’s far-fetched to suggest that dishonest real estate agents (or landlords seeking to rent out their units) were why the Bucktown boundary DID change (which it did, as the Community Organizations and various surveys that were discussed in prior threads demonstrated).
“Where could one go for safety? Two words for you: Pill Hill. Is it green zone?”
What are you talking about johnc?
Safety was Lakeview and Lincoln Park, although prices dropped there the declines weren’t as bad as other neighborhoods. In a housing crash, however, no where is completely safe.
“What are you talking about johnc?
Safety was Lakeview and Lincoln Park, although prices dropped there the declines weren’t as bad as other neighborhoods.”
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Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think that values in Pill Hill held up well during the last recession. If the definition of green zone is price safety, that would make Pill Hill green zone, right?
“My point was that such silly puffery, while common, DID NOT change the boundary of LP, so I think it’s far-fetched to suggest that dishonest real estate agents (or landlords seeking to rent out their units) were why the Bucktown boundary DID change (which it did, as the Community Organizations and various surveys that were discussed in prior threads demonstrated).”
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Given that BCO was, and is, rife with r.e. agents, the claim of non-involvement is dubious. In any event, claiming a change in boundaries that doubles the size of the neighborhood is ludicrous.
Let’s leave things as they are: We agree that r.e. agents often misrepresent and stretch boundaries, be they in River North, Bucktown, Andersonville, Lincoln Park, or anywhere else.
As for Bucktown itself, I cannot make you see the Light, and you cannot dissuade me from the Truth. 😉
Very nice discussion on the definition of green zone, though. I enjoy it.
Interesting, Sabrina. I’ve read lots of older posts on this site, as before I thought to post I found it a fun way to check out some neighborhoods I didn’t know and searched for posts about them, some of which were quite old. I hadn’t realized that GZ was housing bust era and beyond. Any clue where there’s some early discussion of the concept here?
Anyway, I think my impression was it referred to popular neighborhoods that had certain inherent qualities of desirability — restaurants and bars and coffee shops that appeal to your young professional types, local shops worth going to, some cultural things, feel safe and walkable even to people who maybe grew up in the ‘burbs and are by no means interested in being urban pioneers, better schools obviously a plus, good access to transportation and the Loop, still reasonably urban in feel.
Then, with the added context of the bust: these neighborhoods boomed hard during the pre bust years, and dropped during the bust, but unless you bought at the top of the boom and had a low downpayment (not uncommon, unfortunately), you were pretty safe and could expect value to rebound eventually.
I’d distinguish that from neighborhoods that never really boomed and aren’t popular in the same way (perhaps because farther out), but held value (I know nothing about Pill Hill, but maybe it and Beverly are in that category). I’d also distinguish that from newly popular neighborhoods that might boom the most but haven’t proven that they are lasting if there’s a bust or serious downturn, and where there still may be bigger safety concerns or more of a gentrifying feel. And I’d distinguish that from traditional safe middle class neighborhoods that started to sell at nutty prices with the boom and then crashed with the bust.
Obviously the Gold Coast is desirable just shown by price per sq ft and how it’s largely weathered and come back post bust, even if it’s not cool in some circles. (I would not like to live in the GC myself, but based on reading this site it’s certainly the epitome of GZ, as is LP, etc.)
Corrections and clarifications would be welcome!
“Corrections and clarifications would be welcome!”
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I think your definition of green zone is spot on. It’s what I was trying to say in my prior posts — more than just value holding up.
Pill Hill is around 93rd and Jeffreys. Back in the day, it was where the Black professional (doctors, etc., hence “Pill Hill”) and upper class lived. Declined somewhat when more housing opportunities opened up for minorities, but still very nice area.
Who’d a thunk we’d see half million dollar houses in Bronzeville?
If you are saying Pill Hill and Bronzeville are GZ, we aren’t using the same definition, though. Lots of places are “very nice area” but not GZ, for example, much of the NW side.
I watch properties in Bronzeville some because I think it has some beautiful housing stock and am amazed by how much cheaper it is for equivalent or better housing than what you get in much of the North Side, but that it’s so comparatively inexpensive speaks to it not being GZ, as does the absence of the same sorts of amenities. And it was hurt very badly by the bust and still has not recovered, I don’t think. Read Nathalie Y. Moore’s discussion of buying and living in Bronzeville and the bust that is included in her book The South Side for why it certainly is not.
I vaguely recall the original thread where “green zone” was discussed. I seem to remember there being an element of desirability to professionals/ physical safety.
If you are saying Pill Hill and Bronzeville are GZ, we aren’t using the same definition, though. Lots of places are “very nice area” but not GZ, for example, much of the NW side.
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I’m not saying they’re GZ, as my definition is like yours: there’s social and economic frission going on. Sabrina’s definition placed holding value front and center, so I am trying to see how far Sabrina applies her definition. Pill Hill’s values held up — does that, Sabrina, make it green zone? Bronzeville is hot. Is it therefore GZ?
People have come up with lots of definitions/tests: Gary has one, Stephanie and I have another, Sabrina a third. Time to create a Grand Unified Theory of Green Zones.
“frission”
???
“I seem to remember there being an element of desirability to professionals/ physical safety.”
That’s the largest part of it, yes. Sabrina has consistently tried to make it less about that, tho.
Seemingly can’t search the comments right now, so can’t track down the origin.
“Stephanie and I have another”
I don’t read you two as using anything like the same definition. Perhaps you’re trying to create some frission [sic].
I think that many people are essentially saying the same thing. The most desirable neighborhoods will hold their value, even in a serious downturn. The elements that make a desirable neighborhood are like porn (I know it when I see it).
Neighborhoods that don’t have a solid footing of desirability will suffer in a serious downturn. Many “hot” neighborhoods are not GZ, because if the shit hits the fan, those neighborhoods are not hot anymore.
“I don’t read you two as using anything like the same definition. Perhaps you’re trying to create some frission [sic].”
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lol — no, what I need is a French spell checker — s/b frisson.
“Many “hot” neighborhoods are not GZ, because if the shit hits the fan, those neighborhoods are not hot anymore.”
That’s one big part of it.
And, of course, it’s not about “not going down” in value (that was a Stevo Heitman conceit w/r/t “real” LP, only), but that prices wouldn’t *collapse* like the non-gz areas, and you wouldn’t be completely surrounded by non-performing mortgages.
Also, the physical safety aspect of things.
So: GZ = area where one feels generally physically safe today, that is expected to remain a relatively desirable area for transplants/new residents in the future, and where home values would be expected to perform considerably better than average during a broad market downturn.
GZ is to CC-Chicago what blue chip stocks were (are) to investing–the relative safe havens of choice. It is NOT about what is “hot” in any sense, tho they may be hot areas due to their reliability and the positive aspects that are related to that reliability (which, of course, includes a lot of amenities that come with a generally UMC neighborhood).
The first reference to the “green zone” on Crib Chatter was on December 31, 2008 by Cjriis.
When Sonies asked him what he meant by “greenzone” he said this:
“I live out by 63rd and California. We call the amenity-rich, low-crime, upscale area around the center of the City the green zone because it’s much like the green zone in Iraq–an area that has all the amenities and resources which is walled off from the rest of the country to keep out violence, poverty, and non-collegiate working poor.”
We have all been using this term ever since. Many of you simply use “GZ” instead of writing out the full words.
We have never come up with a definitive list of neighborhoods in it. There are several, however, that certainly are in it: Lakeview, Lincoln Park, River North, Streeterville, Loop, South Loop, West Loop, Wicker Park and Bucktown.
anon(tfo) is correct that it’s not about what is “hot.” And I agree that it’s about where prices wouldn’t collapse. They could still go down, but they’re not going to fall 50% like they did in some neighborhoods during the bust.
“People have come up with lots of definitions/tests: Gary has one, Stephanie and I have another, Sabrina a third. Time to create a Grand Unified Theory of Green Zones.”
We’ve always had a unified vision of what the green zone was. It has been used thousands of times in the last 10 years on this site and no one has ever been confused about what was being discussed.
Everyone knows who is in it. To those neighborhoods we aren’t sure about (Andersonville, for example) it means they really aren’t in it.
Where is “Pill Hill”? I’ve never heard of it.
“I watch properties in Bronzeville some because I think it has some beautiful housing stock and am amazed by how much cheaper it is for equivalent or better housing than what you get in much of the North Side, but that it’s so comparatively inexpensive speaks to it not being GZ, as does the absence of the same sorts of amenities.”
I have covered properties in Bronzeville off and on throughout the years. Some areas have lovely housing stock. There are true historic homes there. But someone will have fixed up one property and the one next door is a dump. And there are still few restaurants or other entertainment nearby.
It’s so close to downtown, it’s hard to believe it won’t be a great neighborhood at some point. But I’m too old to wait for the gentrification now. It’s been 10 years since the bust and it’s not that much better off.
“Pill Hill is around 93rd and Jeffreys.”
Thank you for the definition. I’ve never covered anything there although I’ve covered other parts of the South Side like Beverly and Pullman.
Most neighborhoods on the South Side, not even Hyde Park or Woodlawn, are not in the Green Zone, I’m afraid. Only the South Loop has been routinely included.
“We call the amenity-rich, low-crime, upscale area around the center of the City the green zone because it’s much like the green zone in Iraq–an area that has all the amenities and resources which is walled off from the rest of the country to keep out violence, poverty, and non-collegiate working poor.””
That’s what I remember. Low crime. Upscale. Basically saying professional. Nothing about insulated from price downturns. And given the politically incorrect nature of such a term this is why realtors would never use it.
“It’s [Bronzeville] so close to downtown, it’s hard to believe it won’t be a great neighborhood at some point. But I’m too old to wait for the gentrification now. It’s been 10 years since the bust and it’s not that much better off.”
That’s the what I’ve always said. It makes no sense that nothing would happen here. However, something is going on. I just did a new SFH construction review of the last 12 months. Check out my map and note that Grand Boulevard had about 25 new SFHs active there in the last 12 months. One is pending with a list price of $825K. http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2018/09/chicagos-hottest-neighborhoods-for-new-single-family-home-construction-in-2018/
“That’s what I remember. Low crime. Upscale. Basically saying professional. Nothing about insulated from price downturns.”
I disagree. If you actually screen for “green zone” on this site we refer to it constantly in 2009, 2010 and 2011 as being able to withstand the worst of the price cuts.
Cjriis refers to green zone from his own neighborhood’s perspective. We went with it and started referring to it in the context of the housing bust.
Thanks, all. Now and again it’s nice to get the history of a concept, and see how it evolved over the years.
“Where is “Pill Hill”? I’ve never heard of it.”
Not knowing where it is? Totally fine–I never quite keep it straight.
But never having heard of it? Weird!
“It’s been 10 years since the bust and [Bronzeville]’s not that much better off.”
People have been talking about Logan Square gentrifying “soon” since the late 80s. Only took 25 years for it to come somewhat true.
*IF* (when?) ‘The 78’ is an employment node, there will be a decent chance for B’ville to actually turn the corner. And I think it will go crazy fast when/if it starts changing in earnest.
“*IF* (when?) ‘The 78’ is an employment node, there will be a decent chance for B’ville to actually turn the corner. And I think it will go crazy fast when/if it starts changing in earnest.”
Sure. As it’s further south. But this is 5-10 years away, right? Unless Amazon picks that location and they move quickly.
Although, according to Crain’s, United may be shopping around for a new location and is eying “The 78” too.
Who knows. But we all may be dead by the time some of these big tracts of land get built out. Look how long it’s taken to build out Lakeshore East. They are STILL working on it.
In response to comments on the term “Green Zone”, I have heard it outside of the CC context amongst several people who do not know eachother, it was in the 2014-2015 era though. Most people I know have left the city in the past 3 years due to the high cost of private schools for their kids, or left the state altogether (either went to NW Indiana, SE WI, or moved out of the Midwest completely).