Asking $150K More than the 2010 Price On This Modern 3-Bedroom: 1615 N. Wolcott in Bucktown
This 3-bedroom in the mid-rise condo building of the Urban Sandbox development at 1615 N. Wolcott in Bucktown just came on the market.
This 8-unit building was originally marketed in 2007 but this unit didn’t sell until February 2010.
The architect was Miller Hull and in 2009 it won the Builder’s Choice Urban Infill Grand Award and Project of the Year.
See the architect’s website here.
It has 10 foot ceilings and floor to ceiling windows.
The finishes are all luxury and read like a who’s who of an interior design magazine with Arclinea cabinets in the kitchen along with SubZero, Miele, Ann Sacks, Hansgrohe and Duravit.
The unit has central air, washer/dryer in the unit and garage parking for an extra $19,900.
This unit has had interesting pricing over the years.
It was originally listed at $719,800 but was significantly reduced before finally selling in February 2010 for $550,000, which included the parking.
Now priced at $699,000, with the parking at $19,900, it is essentially the same price as the original list back in 2007.
Has the market improved enough to command a premium to the 2010 price?
Mimi Collins at Prospect Equities has the listing. See the pictures here.
Unit #201: 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, no square footage listed
- Originally listed in November 2007 for $719,800
- Reduced several times
- Sold in February 2010 for $550,000 (included the parking)
- Currently listed for $699,000 (plus $19,900 for parking)
- Assessments of $211 a month
- Taxes of $8327
- Central Air
- Washer/Dryer in the unit
- Bedroom #1: 12×15
- Bedroom #2: 10×11
- Bedroom #3: 9×11
They knocked down a really neat old brick loft/warehouse when they built these suckers. I think the new building here…and the mega-houses next door…look amazing…but upon closer inspection they seem to be largely concrete block construction. Which is a big downer in my book. And they seem to have no lawn space to speak of. They really “maximize” the lot with the buildings.
Wow, these cost A LOT of money. I think that oak brook provides far better value. You can buy an entire house on a big lot for this kind of money in oak brook. Hell, the sellers probably are sick of the urban grit and want to move to oak brook themselves!
Nice unit design but all that grey everywhere is depressing and cold. Obviously there is selection bias in listings posted on CC but it seems like there are slightly more postings where the list price is similar to or higher than pricing during the bubble. Is this a sign things are maybe stabilizing in the market?
No, this is priced incorrectly…most buyers would not pay more than the 550 the owner paid in 2010
Bubble pricing (or more) as a sign of market stability? That’s a good one.
“Testing the market”. Perhaps hoping to catch a Groupon millionaire. Looking at the floor plan, I think this is an ordinary 6-flat concrete block spec building, tricked up w/Ann Sacks, Hansgrohe, Duravit, et al. $550,000 including parking, if seller is serious.
This poor place – it’s spent more than half it’s life on the market!
Pricing on this is insane. It’s a second floor unit (boo) with tiny bedrooms. 9×11 is really only ok for a nursery or very occasional guests. Unless someone thinks that the 2010 buyer stole this place, it’s back to 2010 pricing (not a very far trip). Given the fact that the seller thinks he/she can make $170,000 on this place in about 2 years, I’d like to see it sit.
Back to the subject property –
has anyone actually lived in a house like this? I have – and let me tell you it is virtually impossible to keep it looking like this if you are a normal person!!! This type of place only looks good in pictures and is like a museum – one or two things out of place and the whole place looks like crap. There is no way you could keep the place looking like this if you have children, dogs or are a straight man. No way
“Obviously there is selection bias in listings posted on CC but it seems like there are slightly more postings where the list price is similar to or higher than pricing during the bubble.”
The bigger question is: why are the agents even taking these listings? I understand times are tough. A listing is a listing. But the overall market continues to decline. If you bought in the last 5 years and didn’t do anything to the property (I’m NOT talking about renovators here)- why do you think you will get more than what you paid?
This is why this market cannot find a bottom.
I’ve lived in a Ranquist building and really enjoyed the experience and the design, especially the kitchen. However, this pricing seems overly optimistic. The 2010 price seems pretty good, compared to other Ranquist property prices.
RE: “Hell, the sellers probably are sick of the urban grit and want to move to oak brook themselves!”
Looks like city livin’ is making it’s way to the suburbs. I’ll stay in Lakeview, where it’s safe.:
http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20120209/news/702099844/
“but upon closer inspection they seem to be largely concrete block construction.”
Sealed block… not the same as the stuff you see all over Lakeview. Im not sure about the quality of Miller Hull’s block choice, but I would venture that it is similar to Studio Dwell, who have truly elevated the CMU to a thing of beauty.
“But the overall market continues to decline”
While the overall market has declined – specific markets have been doing ok. In addition, you are looking at data from a few months ago – completely ancient history when you are talking real estate (and especially in the spring market).
“$550,000 including parking, if seller is serious.”
Agreed… but I have to doubt that the seller is in fact serious.
“The bigger question is: why are the agents even taking these listings?”
Really? Are you that naiive still? Come on – a listing generates dozens of phone calls from potential clients who you can then direct to other properties.
Beautiful place but the seller is on crack with that pricing. Even if they did find a sucker willing to pay list, I doubt any mortgage underwriter would ignore that 2010 price. The appraisal on this place better be rock solid.
Clio is right that it takes discipline to live in a place like this – but the Studio Dwell Ranquest we lived in had a surprising amount of closets and built in storage, perfect for hiding clutter. The high ceilings allow for the clutter to be stored up high in those closets. However, a massive ktichen counter is a magnet for clutter.
great place, very cool but agreed, seller is smoking something. 2010 it is, I think but then if I’m the buyer, I’m trying for less than that. And for god’s sake, include the parking, don’t keep it separate, so lame.
Whats the difference in monthly carrying costs for the 2010 buyer at that rate and the feb 2012 buyer at current rates at this price? Not in the office yet but would like to see.
The bathrooms look like they are at a health club, David Barton gym, etc. Very institutional. You half expect to see a nude guy come walking around the corner with an undersized white bath towel…an institutional yellow mop bucket in the corner. Floor to ceiling windows are on the front, where’d you have blinds pulled most of the time needing some privacy.
listing says “Fabulous Condo in Great Bucktown Location!” pretty sure this is Wicker Park, or is WP a sub-nabe of Bucktown?
I really like this place, not so much at that price, or location, but it is a very nice space
I like this one quite a bit. I don’t really get the need to have huge bedrooms. I only ever go to mine to either sleep or change clothes. It is not like I live in it. I’d rather the space is used for closets and other living spaces.
This is prime Bucktown, but anything over around $600k or so just seems like pure fantasy, and even that price seems hard to reach.
I don’t think its priced that badly. There is very little like this on the market. if you want high end finishes – Arclinea, Ann Sacks, etc… You have to build it (which isn’t cheap as material costs have not dropped that much) or pay a little more than the price of standard developer features. Many people don’t care if its Home Depot tile vs. Ann Sacks and others do. Since there is not much of this design on the market, this owner might do okay. Those of you who want this design at prices of a typical developer unit, should buy a developer unit and remodel…you’ll only make that mistake once. There is a price to be paid for top of the line products and design its either time (remodeling yourself) or money.
“listing says “Fabulous Condo in Great Bucktown Location!” pretty sure this is Wicker Park, or is WP a sub-nabe of Bucktown?”
Border between btown and wicker is disputed. Have seen both bloomingdale and north ave.
“Floor to ceiling windows are on the front, where’d you have blinds pulled most of the time needing some privacy.”
Why exactly? The living area is set back from the sidewalk and you have multiple elements blocking views into the unit. The only people who should be able to see in are your neighbors on the other side of the street… and chances are they have the same ‘keep the blinds closed for privacy’ mindset. I say leave them open and pressure your neighbors insecurities till they have their blinds permanently shut.
“Border between btown and wicker is disputed. Have seen both bloomingdale and north ave.”
Of all the completely meaningless things to argue about…
“I don’t really get the need to have huge bedrooms. I only ever go to mine to either sleep or change clothes.”
Very sorry to hear that. Happy Valentine’s Day.
“I’d rather the space is used for closets and other living spaces.”
It’s not as if the bedrooms in this place were compromised to accommodate huge closets (ok, the master closet is nice enough) or a giant living room. To me it looks like what should have been a 2 bedroom condo was made into a 3 bedroom. It actually looks from the floorplan that they built a tiny bedroom in the corner of the living room. For this kind of money, I’d want more outdoor space as well.
“listing says “Fabulous Condo in Great Bucktown Location!” pretty sure this is Wicker Park, or is WP a sub-nabe of Bucktown?”
North of North–maybe a bit more WP than B’town, but defensible.
“Of all the completely meaningless things to argue about…”
are you new here?
@ Jon…lol…You are funny : )
“It actually looks from the floorplan that they built a tiny bedroom in the corner of the living room.”
I take it you noticed the partial height wall for that bedroom as well?
So assuming 20% down for both buyers, the guy that bought in Feb 2010 financed 440k at 5.4% for a monthly payment of 2470.
If someone pays full ask for this place, (a) they’re an idiot, but (b) they’ll finance 560k at 3.8% for a monthly payment of 2609, so about a ~$140/mo difference.
I don’t understand properties like this, and can’t speak to the pricing, but I think it’s a decent example of how borrowing costs are so cheap that the downward pressure on prices from buyers should be easing Not disappearing, but easing.
Sellers are definitely smoking crack, probably hoping for someone who likes the fancy interior and doesn’t have the patience or desire to look around.
This is the kind of thing that sells in the ~$720k w/parking range in this neighborhood – complete gut rehab (finishes maybe not _quite_ as nice, but still pretty nice) way more space (legit 3 bedrooms), a yard, a garage, etc.
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1838-W-Wabansia-Ave-60622/home/13354772
um,. were there a lot of this type of units on the market from 2007 until 2010 when it sold for $550K? Why wasn’t there “a price to be paid” for these finishes when they were new and not used?
T, you are ignoring opportunity costs of the DP. A better comparison would be to apply the rate and points to the entire purchase price.
Because G, Mimi researched it, and she says “you can do this”
I love this unit. Nice space, beautifully decked out, decent area, though not my favorite. But $700,000 is ridiculous. Since it’s listed separately, I’ll just buy the parking, might be useful sometime. I think the 2010 price won’t even be an easy sell nowadays.
“I don’t understand properties like this, and can’t speak to the pricing, but I think it’s a decent example of how borrowing costs are so cheap that the downward pressure on prices from buyers should be easing Not disappearing, but easing.”
Rates have declined throughout the correction. It makes it easier to secure knifecatchers. Low rates are a gift to sellers, not buyers. Banks are still sellers, so expect further rate reductions.
“This is the kind of thing that sells in the ~$720k w/parking range in this neighborhood – complete gut rehab (finishes maybe not _quite_ as nice, but still pretty nice) way more space (legit 3 bedrooms), a yard, a garage, etc.”
Bit of a stretch to call that patio a yard, but I’d take it 10 times out of 6 over this place, when w/in under 5%.
Agreed. But zero bound is the new reality; at least until it is not; and zero bound can go on much longer than any of us care to admit.
“Rates have declined throughout the correction. It makes it easier to secure knifecatchers. Low rates are a gift to sellers, not buyers. Banks are still sellers, so expect further rate reductions.”
This I disagree with you on. The opportunity cost of the down payment is negligible. I don’t want to turn this into a discussion on investments, but it’s quite difficult to safely get 3% these days; the rest is just gambling in the stock market.
But T is right, there is price declines to come, but easing pressure. that coupled with the lowest inventory in years is keeping the market stronger than it might otherwise be. But I’ve been watching the bubble for 8 years now and it could be another 8 before it full deflates. That’s 1/8 of my life expectancy. some buyers haven’t got that kind of time.
“G (February 14, 2012, 10:32 am)
T, you are ignoring opportunity costs of the DP. A better comparison would be to apply the rate and points to the entire purchase price.”
I’ve always said I would buy when it makes sense for me; which is a combination of enough bubble deflation, repayment of other debt, job security, downpayment, right house, right location, and I think that day is rapidly approaching. There are some pretty decent ‘deals’ out there for modest homes in modest areas with great schools. Sure they might go down another 25%in the next few years but that’s a risk, life is risks. As long as you jump in knowing the risks, I have never faulted anyone for buying (although I have faulted them for overpaying)…
PS there are GREAT deals in Oak Brook. Amazing deals.
Yes, homedelete, there are great deals in Oak Brook…too bad you’d actually have to live there.
“This I disagree with you on. The opportunity cost of the down payment is negligible.”
We can disagree on what the opportunity cost is, but you are still ignoring the additional $33,780 down payment. Apples to oranges.
“Sure they might go down another 25%in the next few years but that’s a risk, life is risks. As long as you jump in knowing the risks, I have never faulted anyone for buying (although I have faulted them for overpaying)…”
Agreed.
“but it’s quite difficult to safely get 3% these days, the rest is just gambling in the stock market.”
I guess on the upside, you can never get a hernia since your balls never descended. At least you have that going for you.
these are all built in places where you can get an empty lot for $50-$100k. so the economics of these projects necessitate more fringe areas like logan square and west of western. however, these are good for the areas since the alternative is an empty lot.
homedelete (February 14, 2012, 11:20 am)
This I disagree with you on. The opportunity cost of the down payment is negligible. I don’t want to turn this into a discussion on investments, but it’s quite difficult to safely get 3% these days; the rest is just gambling in the stock market.
This is beyond untrue……..
Not trying to start a war of words, but I can guarantee you an FDIC protected yield of 3% until 2027 on a Goldman-issued CD (cusip 38143AKU8). We can talk about the stupidity of this purchase (inflation risk, duration risk, etc.) , but that’s not the point. You have a 100% chance of getting your principle returned to you and 100% chance of getting 3% on your money. That is one example of many…if we go into the bond market, we can find signifcantly better yields….again, NOT advocating anyone to due this, simply making the point.
@Mike: that’s a loser of a CD. it’s callable in 6mos. in between you have 24.5 years that you WILL be underperforming the market.
I’ve tried to think about why we’re talking past each other, and maybe I should qualify my previous statement that pressure from “buyers” is diminishing as it’s too broad.
Pressure from buyers looking to live in a place for a long time is diminishing due to recent interest rate levels. For them, the monthly carrying costs are already giving them much bigger budgets than they had even last summer. It feels like prices have dropped 20% because the same monthly payment opens up a lot of properties they were previously priced out of.
At the same time, this might be much less of a factor for RE investors or people buying to rent. Sure, locked in low rates might make buying to rent more profitable in the short term, but when you need to sell it’s pretty likely that rates will have gone back up and pressure from buyers will be intense.
This is beyond untrue……..
Did you actually write that not knowing HD’s M.O. ?
HD can be found by looking at what attorney keeps running out of the courtroom everytime he starts losing an argument.
He will be seen again spouting the same nonsense of 300k in interest over 30 years… don’t inform him he could get 300k in interest over the same time. That would spoil things!
Did you actually write that not knowing HD’s M.O. ?
I didn’t realize, I’ll now hold my head in shame for the rest of the afternoon.
“I didn’t realize, I’ll now hold my head in shame for the rest of the afternoon.”
Don’t worry, HD is spending the rest of the afternoon laddering Goldman CDs.
“I didn’t realize, I’ll now hold my head in shame for the rest of the afternoon.”
The first time you are forgiven. But if you call Clio anything other than a Doctor that plays one on TV, you spend a month in shame.
“Don’t worry, HD is spending the rest of the afternoon laddering Goldman CDs.”
Well at least you know I laughed. HD’s wife checking their monthly balance sheet and asking him about all these swaps he now has on.
monthly? daily balance sheet would be more up mrs hd’s alley… one negative day and thats a paddlin’
Look at contract activity over the past week (and especially over the past 3 days) – you guys will be SHOCKED!!!
A few weeks ago mrs he wrote me an email asking why the deposit from my checking account to our joint account was a few hundred dollars short. That I thought crosses the line of reasonableness of what a wife can ask about.
Can you at least not cross-post your shill? at this point – it’s no better than email spam.
“CLIO (February 14, 2012, 6:01 pm)
Look at contract activity over the past week (and especially over the past 3 days) – you guys will be SHOCKED!!!”
“Look at contract activity over the past week (and especially over the past 3 days) – you guys will be SHOCKED!!!”
You’re the realtor. Post the numbers. (for Chicago only please.)
And then post last year’s numbers too.
“A few weeks ago mrs he wrote me an email asking why the deposit from my checking account to our joint account was a few hundred dollars short. That I thought crosses the line of reasonableness of what a wife can ask about.”
I’m stunned you’re allowed to have your own checking account.
I was looking at a couple townhouses in the far suburbs. Both were foreclosures. Both were selling for like 33% to 50% off their last sales, respectively. Both went under contract this weekend. They were attractively priced so if something is priced right it will move.
Of course, there is still a slew of foreclosures in other developments further away from where I want to be but I’m thinking I may end up regretting not putting an offer in on one of them.
G- numbers for contract activity this week?
“G- numbers for contract activity this week?”
Why are you asking him? I thought you already knew? Aren’t we going to be SHOCKED when we see them?
Oh wait- you’re talking out of your a*s and have no idea what the contract numbers are like for this week.
ha! ha! What a joke.
look for yourself – you are going to be shocked
I am shocked, at how stupid you are. Damn ur stoopid CLIO.
HD – look at the properties you have been following. Keep tabs on these. Keep tabs on the number of properties going under contract in any particular zip code (on red fin). You will see these numbers going up at a rate that hasn’t been seen in the recent past. Seriously, look everyday. I follow 60610. 60611, 60614, 60654 (sonies), 60657, 60521, 60523 – and I am shocked at the increase everyday in properties going under contract. Again, don’t take my word – look for yourself – it is very easy on redfin.
contracts dont equal sales my futile friend.
Exactly, contract don’t equal sales and lets talk about what kind of contracts those are….I’m seeing some contracts where I search but they are mostly cheap foreclosures. Whoop de doo for values!!
Also, did you realize this is the week after the super bowl…buyers are coming back out and the listings have been slower than usual. What a bunch of Huey. Dream on!!
They are naive and out of their minds. In all likelihood, they’ll foolishly keep lowering the price 10k and one year later when they find a buyer, the mkt will be even lower and theyll regret not just advertising a market price to begin with. Fools. If it were me, I’d advertise it well below the purchase price and create an auction for it. now thats how you find true market price!
Where is Icarus?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/ferminfermin/2223758790/
“Sealed block… not the same as the stuff you see all over Lakeview. Im not sure about the quality of Miller Hull’s block choice, but I would venture that it is similar to Studio Dwell, who have truly elevated the CMU to a thing of beauty.”
I don’t know if I’d call the concrete block on this condo building (sealed or not) a thing of beauty. I personally would never invest in a concrete block building. Simply not my cup of tea. Give me good old-fashioned 100% brick. I love what Miller Hull did with the old brick warehouse on Leavitt:
http://www.millerhull.com/html/residential/leavitt.htm
Nice unit. I like. Bit cold even for my minimalist tastes, with all the black-white-silver decorating, but I get the idea.
@Mike: that’s a loser of a CD. it’s callable in 6mos. in between you have 24.5 years that you WILL be underperforming the market.
I really did try to qualify my statement, there are lots of reasons besides callability that make that CD a loser, I just thought it was uninformed to claim there is no way to safely get 3% without buying equities.
Mike – I might be uninformed, but they don’t call ZIRP the ‘war on savers’ for nothing. It’s common knowledge that this is a difficult environment to get a return. I have a friend who lends on prosper trying to eek out 7% returns. That’s the honest to good trut.h.
” I have a friend who lends on prosper trying to eek out 7% returns. That’s the honest to good trut.h.”
I get .9% per month from a very safe Bank, or Brazil, for doing nothing. That’s like having someone pay me 11.5% per year if I promise to just sit on a beach stoned, staring at ass.
” if I promise to just sit on a beach stoned, staring at ass.”
What if you want to sit on your ass, staring at stones on the beach?
Mike – I might be uninformed, but they don’t call ZIRP the ‘war on savers’ for nothing. It’s common knowledge that this is a difficult environment to get a return. I have a friend who lends on prosper trying to eek out 7% returns. That’s the honest to good trut.h.
I’m not debating its a challenging market, but now we’re jumping from 3%-7%. Domestically, you can’t get 3% sticking your money in a savings account, but frankly, in the environment where you can do that, you’re likely to be losing significant purchasing power on your money because of inflation and other unmeasured accelerated life costs. I would strongly suggest that you stop looking at a short period of time as the gospel on returns. I’ll make the same non sequitor argument to the opposite extreme and say look at historical returns…they average 10% a year, so why not be 100% invested in equities. Both sides are ridculous, but acting like a turtle with your money is not very effective.
If you truly believe that there has been a fundemental shift in global markets and you’re never going to be able to effectively generate returns north of 3-7% again, you might consider building a compound, buying a lot of canned goods, and waiting for the falll of the US government.
“What if you want to sit on your ass, staring at stones on the beach?”
Certainly understandable if you are in Hawaii. Lava is neat. Looking for whales and turtles is even neater. Here one must make do and find other distractions.
I think a few 20%+ years are on the horizon.. that would be so much more fun.
“Certainly understandable if you are in Hawaii. ”
I was just wondering if they’d charge you a few bips …
Mike: I’m of the belief that in a fiat economy where money is created from nothing and can return to nothing upon default, yields tend to go to zero for safe or risk free investments. Interest rates and yields are based upon risk not upon scarcity of money, because quite frankly, money is not scare.
If you’re searching the world looking for investments that generate more than 3-7%, so is everyone else, and at that point, it becomes work, and not passive rent seeking income. I can make far more money working than I can scouring the world for yield. I would need millions of dollars in liquidity to yield in a year what I can bill in an entire year as an attorney. I’m not saying ‘don’t invest your money’ but the war on savers is real, and renting seeking yield is getting more and more difficult every day.
“If you truly believe that there has been a fundemental shift in global markets and you’re never going to be able to effectively generate returns north of 3-7% again, you might consider building a compound, buying a lot of canned goods, and waiting for the falll of the US government.”
“I was just wondering if they’d charge you a few bips …”
YOu speak of behavior not even expected by the good lord. http://www.amazon.com/How-Carioca-Priscilla-Ann-Goslin/dp/8585556013 click on cover.
“YOu speak of behavior not even expected by the good lord.”
So, if you don’t promise to abide by local custom, they only pay you .09 per month?
So, if you don’t promise to abide by local custom, they only pay you .09 per month?
I’ve had enough of this. I am going to the beach. Collect my daily .03%.
I can make far more money working than I can scouring the world for yield.
Fair enough, I’m a portfolio manager, my job is, in part to do what you’re suggesting. I probably didn’t communicate my point as effectively as I could have. I believe that if you’re preoccupied by risk to the point of feeling that there is no reason to invest your money, then the only logical conclusion for you is that things will never get better. What happens when you can’t work anymore and the cash you have has to last you another 25+ years? If you are not generating any yield, how do you keep up with the cost of living? I don’t see it as an either/or situation, I see it as an all of the above situation. Renting to seek yield is a combination of duration/ risk tolerance/ end goal. While we have itemized deductions for things like interest and RE tax, I question how much you’re actually “making” or “saving.” My original comment was not meant to advocate renting and investing the difference, it was simply a response to a comment regarding the difficulty of obtaining a 3% yield, which I will still suggests is a realitively easy number to hit, with low risk.
“then the only logical conclusion for you is that things will never get better.”
That’s what I don’t get. If he stuck to what he knew he would have returned double digits in 2011 being long the canned goods index.
That’s what I don’t get. If he stuck to what he knew he would have returned double digits in 2011 being long the canned goods index.
or the box ‘o ramen index for that matter
Everyone thinks I’m risk adverse, but that’s not it at all. Unless you’re a portfolio manager, or want to trust your money with a portfolio manager, or want to invest in GS bonds, it’s not as easy to earn 3%, especially after your fees. And don’t forget that there is virtually an unlimited amount of money in the world, all chasing yield; and as that money chases yield, the price of the underlying asset goes up, which drives down the yield. At that point when everyone is chasing yield it’s becomes a lost cause for the average guy like me. Like i said, I can bill, and collect, far more money than any yield off an investment property, or GS 3% bond, etc. It’s good to have savings, and it’s good to diversify your money, etc, but the war on savers is real. There’s no sense denying it. Yields are paltry, everyone is chasing the same yield, interest rates are low…..yields are so low that the subprime automarket has returned. I have clients in Chap 13 bankruptcy coming to me with offers to purchase vehicles at 16% over 72 months. That infinite supply of money is starting to chase risk, again.
“Everyone thinks I’m risk adverse”
uhhh – not really, everyone just thinks you are an idiot/moron.
hd you don’t understand the difference between working for your money and having your money work for you. If you don’t have the time, then hire a WELL QUALIFIED person to help you with that, as you would be surprised the value that an honest advisor can provide. Just like attorneys, doctors, realtors, anyone really, you get what you pay for, and some are worth the money and some are not.
“Just like … realtors … you get what you pay for, and some are worth the money and some are not.”
You didn’t really just say that, did you?
Is that a false statement? Or are you needlessly nitpicking again?
“Is that a false statement?”
You’re saying that “you get what you pay for” as between Realtor A and Realtor B who both stick to typical 6% commission? How are you differentiating, on that standard (yes, I guess I should have cut more out), about what you “get”?
Do you have any stats to support that realtors who charge higher commissions (or refuse to diuscount) get higher sales prices, shorter market times, faster closes, than those who don’t? I’ll even take anecdotes.
Ah ok, needlessly nitpicking it is
One it was a CD, not a bond….bonds do have default risk among other issues. Are you really going to compare some individual with a 500 credit score getting a bad rate on a ridiculously long term car loan as an indicator of the rest of the market. If your point is higher risk equal higher rates, then ding, ding, ding you’re a winner, but what does that have to do with the price tea in China? If you’re saying that people are taking on more risk in search of higher yields, than, I agree, but so what, that happens in every type of market. In the 80’s you could get a CD paying 15% interest, that sounds terrific until you realize your mortgage is at 18%!
” If your point is higher risk equal higher rates”
I took his point to be that holding cash has a risk, but that risk is outwieghed by working more.
Odd… I took it as HD is omniscient and is simply waiting for the return of the easy opportunities that were so prevalent once upon a time, but are at this very moment, no more. When the low hanging fruit is dangling once again, he will know this and then pounce like a tiger. While we, mere mortals, must face our destiny blindfolded.
Ze: All three of us could be right. I’ll wait for Bob to weigh in, tho he’s probably still drunk from quarter beers last night.
“tho he’s probably still drunk from quarter beers last night.”
Nope. Even worse. He got a groupon coupon to Brazzers. I s’pose we won’t be hearing much from him the next 30 days.
Ze: look at the growth of the stock market, gold, real estate, everything over the last 20 years. It didn’t take a genius baby boomer to save and investt and compund interest to be a millionaire. But today, no way, its much harder. It was all low hanging fruit for 20 years ze, that’s what you’re missing because you’re too damn high and runk off the koolaid you’ve been drinking for the last 20 years.
The war on savers ze, the war on savers. Savers tryy to invest their money and yet with all this money chasing yield, yields are paltry.
“look at the growth of the stock market, gold, real estate, everything over the last 20 years. It didn’t take a genius baby boomer to save and investt and compund interest to be a millionaire. But today, no way, its much harder.”
read and re-read what you are writing, hd. Do you honestly thing that the stock market, real estate and everything over the next 20 years is going to be stagnant or decrease? ARE YOU FUCKING INSANE/CRAZY or just plain stupid?!!! TODAY is the best time to start investing in all of that because we are at lows – in 20 years, YOU will be sitting pretty. To say that the baby boomers had it well and that it is much harder today has got to be the most ignorant thing ever stated here (my comments included) – and THAT IS PRETTY BAD.
“It didn’t take a genius baby boomer to save and investt and compund interest to be a millionaire.”
HD- you’re acting like the stock market has never gone into a bear market before. LOL!
If you were 25 in 1975 you would have been saying, “stocks are crap. Who would buy them?” and you wouldn’t have. You might have bought some gold by 1979 though- right before the bust in 1981-1982. Oh- and interest rates were 20%.
Why didn’t you buy gold in 2002 when it hit a multi-decade low? That was low hanging fruit. Same with silver. It was $2. Why weren’t you buying stocks over the last 4 years? If you’re dollar cost averaging, you’d be doing quite well for yourself. We’re in year 12 of the stock market bear market. Will you be invested when it ends? Or will you be like one of those who started buying stocks in 1992 after nearly a decade of great returns?
But I agree with you on the part about the baby boomers becoming millionaires. I have NO sympathy for any upper or middle class baby boomer who is struggling today. All they had to do was buy a house in 1989! Or all they had to do was buy some mutual funds around the same time. Even WITH the bust in both asset classes- they would still be far, far ahead. They had the luxury of having great timing.
But Generation X will too. By the time Gen X reaches retirement, stocks would have staged another huge bull. They’ll be rich if they were investing during the tough years.
“If you’re searching the world looking for investments that generate more than 3-7%, so is everyone else, and at that point, it becomes work, and not passive rent seeking income.”
You’re right. I’m trying to get 13-18% from lendingclub–we’ll see. It definitely takes active management to put the money to work. And continuous monitoring to move on notes that default. Actually it’s my goal to paypal 50k over there by May. Kinda doubtful I’ll keep it all there but it’s useful for a scheme I’m runnin’.
My main concern is it’s not clear whether it’s SIPC covered: the Foliofn note trading platform says foliofn is SIPC covered, but it specifically states the money is in your LC account, which I don’t believe is. If they go under it could be more than just credit risk of the borrowers (which is already accounted for in return calcs). I wish I could get a custom insurance policy on the going concern of LC to alleviate that risk (any idea how much that would cost?)
“but it’s quite difficult to safely get 3% these days; the rest is just gambling in the stock market. ”
You need to research more. Previously I was getting 4% returns 100% risk free from Pelican CU’s rewards checking. Yeah it’s a 20k cap but I’d bet you can open accounts for your cat(s?) and stuff to get around that.
“All they had to do was buy a house in 1989! – they would still be far, far ahead. They had the luxury of having great timing.”
That could be interpreted as very clio-ish. Yikes!
Sure. You would have owned for 23 years. Hopefully it is paid off. The baby boomers I don’t feel for are those who HELO’d it all to high heaven and now still owe $450,000 on the house that’s only worth $350,000 (or whatever) and they’ve been there for those same 23 years.
I like real estate if you’re going to live there for a few decades. Now is not an awful time to buy with the low interest rates. The problem is, people are STILL buying:
1. Properties they can’t really afford
2. Properties they have no intention on living in more than 3 to 5 years (max)
“If you’re searching the world looking for investments that generate more than 3-7%, so is everyone else”
Wow….I recall when ordinary pension-fund type Commercial RE assets sold at 9% caps/yield, and all the MBA would run their spreadsheets trying to make sure if they paid 8% cap rate, they didn’t get screwed, etc. Now all those experts who thought 8% caps were “too expensive” look like complete idiots, it just goes to show they don’t understand macroeconomics. There is one firm in Chicagoland that understood it all, it was Inland out of clio’s Oak Brook. They bought every single shopping center in sight at higher cap rates, while the “competition” sat there and over-analyzed the deal over 50 basis points. Yeah, only an idiot worries about 50 basis points when they don’t understand Austrian economics and the real deal.
By the way- I’m not feeling that well again (something is going around!).
There will only be two posts tomorrow.
“All they had to do was buy a house in 1989! – they would still be far, far ahead. They had the luxury of having great timing”
hh…Bri is simply saying they happened to be at the right place at the right time. Victors by means of situation, not intelligence. But therein lies the fault of HD’s argument. You won’t know when it is going to happen. You need to be in all those things or one day you will look back and be saying.. “damn, it was so easy to have made money in 2016-2036, now yield is no longer there”
HD. Let’s go back 25. Quote from the movie Wall Street. Sounds almost identical to you today.
“Jesus you can’t make a buck in this market, the country’s goin’ to hell faster than when that son of a bitch Roosevelt was in charge. Too much cheap money sloshing around the world.” -Lou Manheim
I’ll say it again and again. The game is essentially the same that it always has been. Always will be. It will never be easy. Everyone wants to make money at a zero sum game. To borrow a 25 yr old GG quote again “It’s trench warfare out there pal.”
or wait.. 1983.. quote was “it’s so easy, hurry up and make lots of money before the door closes forever”
Oh sorry I made that up.. I meant this-
“Think big, think positive, never show any sign of weakness. Always go for the throat. Buy low, sell high. Fear? That’s the other guy’s problem. Nothing you have ever experienced will prepare you for the absolute carnage you are about to witness. Super Bowl, World Series – they don’t know what pressure is. In this building, it’s either kill or be killed. You make no friends in the pits and you take no prisoners. One minute you’re up half a million in soybeans and the next, boom, your kids don’t go to college and they’ve repossessed your Bentley. Are you with me?”
Sounds easy back in the good ‘ol days! All that low hanging fruit you speak of?
Same as it ever was…
…HD, you will spend your life quoting Lou Manheim… just changing the dates.
…come to think of it. Who the heck, 30 years ago, thought they were supposed to get rich chasing yield? Bonds were always what you were taught to buy to preserve wealth, not to make it. Bob’s 10ish% over inflation … he deserves credit for that one. For little else, but for that one, yes.
gz: much of the increase in asset prices has gone to the top 1%; and the bottom 99%, in addition to world governments, have financed the increased asset prices through debt. We’re near peak debt. Your quotes of hollywood movies and funny and anecdotal, but this debt is very real. And the game that’s been played, which is little more than an aberration in the history of time, is nearly over. It came to the brink of collapse in 2008; and was ‘saved’ if that’s what you want to call it; but some people, like you and Chuck Prince (of citibank fame) still hear the music in the background, and are still dancing.
There’s some research out there that tries to argue that every bull market has in some way been related to demographics. when large cohorts of people are buying stocks, prices have gone up, and when there are larger number of sellers, prices go down. The researchers argued that it may take until 2025 or longer before the Gen Y’s and millenials earn enough money to start buying housing, stocks, bonds, etc, for another bull market to return. But couple that with the debt that they’re going to be forced to repay (Student loans, government debt, etc) and figure out how that plays into the equation.
” The researchers argued that it may take until 2025 or longer before the Gen Y’s and millenials earn enough money to start buying housing, stocks, bonds, etc,”
The eldest then would be mid-30s–or exactly parallel with when the eldest boomers brought us the go go 80s.
“By the way- I’m not feeling that well again (something is going around!). ”
yeah – it’s called depression from the realization that you have been absolutely wrong in renting these past two years – should have jumped on a foreclosure/short sale and be set for the next 15 -20 years. Now, you are in a pool of much wealthier buyers/investors who will snap up any bargains and you are left holding the bag with overpriced crappy places that will continue to go up in value (albeit slowly)……
CLio – please stick to placing stents and reading xrays. you cannot diagnose a common cold if your life depended on it.
Clio never gets anything right.
How are those malls working out for General Growth?
hahahhhha
“helmethofer (February 16, 2012, 12:16 am)
“If you’re searching the world looking for investments that generate more than 3-7%, so is everyone else”
Wow….I recall when ordinary pension-fund type Commercial RE assets sold at 9% caps/yield, and all the MBA would run their spreadsheets trying to make sure if they paid 8% cap rate, they didn’t get screwed, etc. Now all those experts who thought 8% caps were “too expensive” look like complete idiots, it just goes to show they don’t understand macroeconomics. There is one firm in Chicagoland that understood it all, it was Inland out of clio’s Oak Brook. They bought every single shopping center in sight at higher cap rates, while the “competition” sat there and over-analyzed the deal over 50 basis points. Yeah, only an idiot worries about 50 basis points when they don’t understand Austrian economics and the real deal.”
” much of the increase in asset prices has gone to the top 1%; and the bottom 99%, in addition to world governments, have financed the increased asset prices through debt. ”
Yourself being the example. Your refusal to believe in the possibility of asset prices rising ,guarantees you to be penalized by any rise.
Think about it. If you bought 1 corn futures contract expiring 2014. Would that add to your families risk or remove it. You buy food every day. You are short food.
Your refusal to assume what you perceive as new risk actually causes you to have risk. All while telling yourself you are being less risky. It’s funny.
“How are those malls working out for General Growth?
hahahhhha”
I made an absolute killing on general growth stock back in 09, that company will always have a special place in my heart
and GGP is mostly high end malls, those are doing fine as evidenced by your stupid repeating of how well the 1% are doing
http://www.worldpropertychannel.com/us-markets/commercial-real-estate-1/real-estate-news-general-growth-properties-inc-john-bucksbaum-bernie-freibaum-south-street-seaport-mall-meadows-mall-howard-hughes-corp-adam-metz-3447.php
I’d be doing just fine too if I could ‘reorganize’ and discharge 7$ billions or more of debt, cancel leases.
Yeah, it went from $1,00 to $17,00, I think quite a few stocks jumped from their crazy lows in 2009 etc.
You of all people should know that corporate “law” is screwed up, and they didn’t do anything illegal, so whats the big deal
This sold for $640. Surprised. I REALLY LIKED this unit. I watched it go down from the $700K to $599. I was looking and willing to offer $500K back in 2010. I was so eager for it to go down further.
Anyway it sold last year for $640. I was just looking around to see how much some of my favorite units are right now. This actually went up from 3 years ago.
http://www.urbanrealestate.com/property/1615-N-Wolcott-Unit-201-Chicago-IL-60622-7KZAFLX5E2XRY.html
Also he had Ranquist ADD BACK the third bedroom. Ranquist originally “left out” the third bedroom so it looking amazing to have such a huge living area. They said that I could add it back if I wanted to and they would pay for it. The owner who bought it from Ranquist added it back.
It is an amazing unit. Now that I’m a little older I don’t know if I’d want to live right off North Ave with all the crazy noise… but this is modern done well. Love modern.