Big Duplexes Still Selling: 915 W. Wrightwood in Lincoln Park Closes
We chattered about this 2500-square foot duplex down at 915 W. Wrightwood in Lincoln Park in April 2009.
See our prior chatter and pictures here.
It recently closed for $4,000 under the 2005 purchase price.
It had all the bells and whistles including a great Lincoln Park location and more square footage than many single family homes.
Unit #1: 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 2500 square feet, 1 car garage parking
- Sold in June 2005 for $719,000
- Was listed in April 2009 for $749,000
- Sold in July 2009 for $715,000
- Assessments of $182 a month
- Taxes of $9962
- Two fireplaces
- Mario Greco at Rubloff had the listing.
Can anyone find out the financing details and amount of leverage the new owner is in for on this place?
Looks like the old owner got out intact and I stand corrected. I am suspicious that the new owner used similar financing but someone please prove me wrong.
Buyer of 915 #1 put 30% down.
916 W. Wrightwood #1 just closed for $705,000 as well.
829 W. Wrightwood #1 just closed for $805,000 as well.
“MG on July 29th, 2009 at 10:18 am
Buyer of 915 #1 put 30% down.”
UNPOSSIBLE! NOBODY HAS THAT KIND OF MONEY ANYMORE!!!
I recently sold my house for just over 800K and was amazed at the quality of buyers who made offers. Didn’t have one home sale contingency among the 5+ written offers i had, although most already owned homes. I guess they weren’t afraid of carrying the two mortgages.
looks nice and reasonable price
When a place like this that doesn’t have half its living space below grade sells for around $700K, then we’re getting somewhere. And after the next round of alt loan resets/recasts gets going, it will happen.
So it sold for the $300 – $350 /sq ft which is what I consider a good range in the Lincoln Park area for that type of a building. Where I get the hee bee jee bees (I have no idea how to spell that Sabrina) shake shakes is when I see $600+ per sq ft in Streeterville and River North areas.
I still have my other place prior to my 2007 purchase. So as a singular data point
I didn’t have a home contingency clause when buying in 2007.
I put at/more than 20% down.
Some of these sellers / buyers of these properties are in the position to wait it out even if it takes multiple years.
This place looks great. I just bought a duplex down in “West Ukrainian Village” (aka 24xx Cortez). Mine was similar in size and appearance, but only 350k given the neighborhood.
One regret is that no one told me the drawback of the “internal balcony” that connects the main level to the lower level. Although an impressive-looking design feature, it means that when one level watches TV, the other level gets to hear the TV regardless of volume. It looks like the builder had enough experience not to put that in this property.
Mario Greco could sell ice cream in a snow storm
to this buyer and JD: what about that horrible basement damp smell?!?!? 😉
Duplex Downs are the bomb-diggity. Tons of space and so much cheaper than duplex-ups. I guess you could have issues if build poorly, but that seems to be the case with all homes.
With my buddy renting my second bedroom on the upper level of my duplex down, my total housing payment with taxes & HOA is less than my previous rent….so about $1,000.
I guess it’s cool to live with a ‘buddy’ but I live with my wife.
I got you beat Brad. Mine is a 4 bed, and I’ve got 3 friends living with me. With their rent, all I’m covering is taxes. Everyone travels for work, so it’s not nearly as busy as it sounds.
Also, it smells like roses in the basement.
Sorry to threadjack, but I have a question about zoning in Lincoln Park. I was looking at the Department of Zoning website around Dayton St and Willow St in Lincoln Park, and I see a big orange box that says ‘PD 149.’ The legend says this is a ‘planned development’. Does anybody know what’s going on there, and if not, where I could find out? Thanks.
“Looks like the old owner got out intact and I stand corrected.”
Really?
The seller had approx $48,000 cash down.
The seller paid ~$5,400 transfer tax at purchase.
The seller paid ~$35,000 in commission at sale (5%.)
The seller paid ~$3,200 transfer tax at sale.
The seller lost $4,000 on sale price.
The seller lost ~100% of their cash investment.
G – yes and no. They may have lost their down payment, but they lived in a very large place, in a good neighborhood for about $1000 per month ($182 assessment + 1/12 of 10k property taxes). Depending on their income, it may have been less then this. If they were in the 33% bracket, the property tax burden drops from $833/month to $558/month. Of course, this does not include the interest on the home loan, which likely throws my numbers out of whack.
Seller didn’t pay commission. RELO company did. 🙂
it’s a nice place, but i think the buyer got taken. probably paid $100k more than he needed to.
“I see a big orange box that says ‘PD 149.’ The legend says this is a ‘planned development’. Does anybody know what’s going on there, and if not, where I could find out? Thanks.”
Go to City Hall, 9th(?? 7th?? Can’t remember) floor, zoning dept, ask for a copy of PD 149. They *may* charge you a copy fee (25 or 50 cents a page), but maybe not. They also *may* let you just look at it. I don’t think the PDs are available on line–definitely were not last I looked.
“Of course, this does not include the interest on the home loan, which likely throws my numbers out of whack.”
The loans were for $670,900 total. Your numbers are way “out of whack.”
The RELO company may have paid the commission, but doesn’t that make it part of their compensation package, subject to income taxes?
“it’s a nice place, but i think the buyer got taken. probably paid $100k more than he needed to”
Of course – so did the buyer of 916 #1 and both appraisers were asleep at the switch…
MG –
i say this because i know someone who bought a place not far from here, for about $200k less. same bedrooms, same size, same parking, and even the same amount of fireplaces. and no, it wasn’t a fixer upper, though it probably didn’t have quite as nice amenities.
point is, there are deals out there to be found. this wasn’t a terrible buy, but it wasn’t a deal either.
> I guess it’s cool to live with a ‘buddy’ but I live with my wife.
Don’t complain to me. You choose that life for yourself!
quelle horreur! some people have more money than the nega-toids of crib chatter!
congrats to the buyer and seller.
JR – where is “not far from here”?
i won’t tell you the exact address, but it’s within a half mile.
Not far from here could mean anything. Its the city and moving over two streets could mean a world of difference. Heck as we saw for the place on Seminary there can be a huge difference based on where you are on the block.
Wrightwood is a pretty darn nice street.
Also, I don’t know who developed this property, but there is a wide range in terms of building quality for 3 / 4 / 6 / 8 unit buildings.
I guess what I am saying is that I don’t think $715k is completely out of line
JD: I bow down. Nice work!
Just give a street name
WOW – I love all the response on the condo that I just sold (or I should say my Fantastic Realtor Mario Greco) – and yes we did get out intact since our RELO paid for everything, commission,etc…all of moving expenses….Also we NEVER had a damp basement smell – ever – and I doubt the new owners will either. Any money that we may have lost really doesn’t seem like a loss to us. We had to live someplace for 4 years and no place is free – unless you are living at home with mommy and daddy. Some people on this site are very cool and seem to have open minds other are just jealous haters…..OH – one more thing the company my husband works for takes care of all the additional taxes we have to pay. : )
Half a mile is Ashland on the west and belmont/addison (lakeview v. lincoln park) on the north – WORLDS away…
Millenium Homes was the developer of 915
Paulj
it nevera debate about people having money, it’s more about brains
“Half a mile is Ashland on the west and belmont/addison (lakeview v. lincoln park) on the north – WORLDS away”
C’mon. Those boundaries are absurd and **CLEARLY** more than half a mile. IF (BIG if) jr was being precise, “half a mile” from here is (not quite) Southport to the west, Wellington to the North, Wesbter to the South and Clark(-ish; but the park is over half a mile) to the East.
Yeah, LV v LP makes a difference, but Addison is over a mile north of here; that’s just not a serious response.
i was being precise. it’s within the boundaries you stated.
Haywood,
Paulj already proved long ago he can’t win that one, so lets let him use his own yardstick. If he keeps playing those scratch off lotto tix maybe one day he’ll have a shot at that metric.
“Half a mile is Ashland on the west and belmont/addison (lakeview v. lincoln park) on the north – WORLDS away”
C’mon. Those boundaries are absurd and **CLEARLY** more than half a mile. IF (BIG if) jr was being precise, “half a mile” from here is (not quite) Southport to the west, Wellington to the North, Wesbter to the South and Clark(-ish; but the park is over half a mile) to the East.
Yeah, LV v LP makes a difference, but Addison is over a mile north of here; that’s just not a serious response.
—
Yes. Southport is JUST outside .5 to the West, but its not bad if he just used the corner of Wrightwood and Lincoln to Southport. Anyways, its splitting hairs at this point.
I’d be more interested in knowing the street name and age of the unit that JR was referring to in his/her earlier post. If its an older unit, it wouldn’t have the high ceilings and finishings as the Wrightwood unit. What are the assessments on the other place?
Would your opinion change if you knew that the $719k sale in 2005 was 95% financed?
chichow –
won’t give the street name as i think that might give it away. but it’s not on the el or anything crazy like that. the finishings are probably not as nice, but they’re not bad either. the bathrooms looked like they had recently been redone, for instance. no idea on assessments, but i think if that’s the issue, we’re definitely splitting hairs.
“Southport is JUST outside .5 to the West, but its not bad if he just used the corner of Wrightwood and Lincoln to Southport.”
Oh, if he’d said Southport west and even Belmont north, it would be splitting hairs, but Ashland and Addison was obfuscation.
And yeah, the more interesting thing *is* the age of the building and assessments and other details, but I doubt jr is going to share.
Here are the details on the three duplex downs previously mentioned:
829 WRIGHTWOOD #1 7rm/3br/2.1ba built 2009 sold 7/28/2009 $805,000
915 WRIGHTWOOD #1 8/3/2.1 2,500sf blt 2005 sold 7/22/2009 $715,000
916 WRIGHTWOOD #1 7/3/2.1 2,500sf blt 2005 sold 7/22/2009 $705,000
Here are the remaining duplex down sales from 500W-1400W/2200N-3000N which closed since 5/1/09:
2623 SHEFFIELD #1N 7/3/3 blt 2005 sold 5/13/2009 $526,000
2622 MILDRED #1 7/3/2.1 2,400sf blt 2005 sold 7/9/2009 $525,000
2713 KENMORE #1 7/3/2.1 2,400sf blt 2006 sold 7/15/2009 $500,000
I have no comment on the relative merits of the units. Mario Greco was the listing agent on Mildred and Kenmore, as well as 915 Wrightwood. Perhaps, he can help shed light on the price differences?
Homedelete –
Who the hell is giving out 95% financing on a Jumbo? Really?
Sorry, left off the assessments:
829 WRIGHTWOOD #1 $282
915 WRIGHTWOOD #1 $182
916 WRIGHTWOOD #1 $115
2623 SHEFFIELD #1N $180
2622 MILDRED #1 $175
2713 KENMORE #1 $185
“Who the hell is giving out 95% financing on a Jumbo?”
2005, man. *I* was making 95% jumbo loans in ’05, out of pocket change.* Easy as getting water from the tap.
*it’s a joke, pal.
0520735058 MORTGAGE 07/26/2005 ******* ***** * JR MORTGAGE ELEC REGISTRATION SYSTEM $107,850
0520735059 MORTGAGE 07/26/2005 ******* ***** * JR MORTGAGE ELEC REGISTRATION SYSTEM $575,200
Don’t forget 923 w Wrightwood which just closed for $750,000. This one is right next to the el.
Based on a cursory look at some photos of the Mildred unit, the finishings are decently lower than that at Wrightwood, but the building was listed as built in 2005 so its new.
I think its not outside the question to think of a 50k difference to live on a sidestreet like Wrightwood over a street like Sheffield.
Im not a realtor FWIW
Thanks, Dan. I’ll punish the intern for that.
“I think its not outside the question to think of a 50k difference to live on a sidestreet like Wrightwood over a street like Sheffield.”
I think it’s not out of the question to pay 25% more to get away from the el–which is in the backyard of the Sheffield property. It’s probably worth $50 (at $500k+,
Dan, it sold for $710,000 and last list price was $749,900:
923 WRIGHTWOOD #1 6/3/2.1 blt 2008 sold 5/15/2009 $710,000
Sheffield looks to be a 6 unit building
Mildred looks to be a 3 unit building
Kenmore looks to be a 3 unit building
From what I see of finishing of some units in the buildings, its not as nice as Wrightwood, but its not a huge difference either.
Yes, Sheffield is a 6-unit and the rest are 3-units.
923 #1 sold for $705k. As for the other duplexes down, I was either the listing or buyer’s agent on all but 2623 sheffield and 916 #1. The finishes on the non-wrightwood ones were significantly lesser (no steam, no Viking/SubZ, no natural stone outside of master bath, limited sound wiring, no lower level radiant heat, etc) than the wrightwood ones. I was also the listing agent and buyer’s agent on 1120 W. Diversey #1 which just closed for $525k – also finishes way beneath the wrightwood ones.
As for splitting hairs about distance, my point was east of sheffield cannot be compared to west of racine and south of diversey is a different ‘hood than north of diversey. That was my point.
“As for splitting hairs about distance, my point was east of sheffield cannot be compared to west of racine and south of diversey is a different ‘hood than north of diversey. That was my point.”
that’s all well and good, but you exaggerated quite a bit. ashland is further from racine than racine is from 916 w. moreover, if you want to make the argument that crossing diversey or lincoln ave is worth $150k, go for it. but i’m not convinced.
“my point was east of sheffield cannot be compared to west of racine and south of diversey is a different ‘hood than north of diversey. That was my point.”
Then that’s what you should have said. The way you put it the first time made you sound petty. You messed up a valid point with incorrect “facts”.
Ahhhh… a discussion of the intricacies of the different streets in the greatest place in the world to live, play and party: Lincoln Park.
Did I mention the 2005 buyer used 95% financing for his $719,000 purchase? Kudos to the 2009 buyer for bailing him out of his piss poor financial decision to buy near a new construction in a bubble area at the height of the boom with no money down.
This must be proof that god exists and answers prayers.
From the Trib:
Chicago Homes: Median Prices
Community 2Q sales Median price 5-year % change
Near North Side 486 $375,500 ?2.59%
Lakeview 363 $349,000 ?0.29%
West Town 266 $345,750 ?7.80%
Naperville (DuPage) 248 $296,250 5.80%
Lincoln Park 248 $418,750 ?13.66%
Loop 246 $325,500 5.00%
Near West Side 237 $307,000 ?0.97%
Plainfield (Will*) 223 $205,000 ?6.82%
Elgin (Kane) 208 $202,500 8.29%
Palatine 193 $220,000 ?20.00%
Source: Tribune survey *March-May sales
The ? mark above is supposed to be a negative sign (-) as in negative appreciation. Lincoln Park is negative 13.66%.
Generous definition of Lincoln Park. Must have been drawn by a realtor.
http://files.chicagotribune.com/homes/index.html?ID=69839&COUNTY=1700000
Guys — I’m looking for info on the Point in LP, but this site has none. There are a few units in that complex (armitage and lincoln) on the market but all appear to be overpriced– opinions from this knowledgable group?
Hey RN Girl – Everything is overpriced!! The Point has sound issues but is in a great location. $500k to $3 million
HD said: “From the Trib:Chicago Homes: Median Prices”
Those numbers are bunk. Someone who owns property in the Loop, Elgin or Naperville must have done the math.
Steve – can you elaborate on the sound issues at The Pointe? How are the HOA reserves? Quality of construction? I know you are the expert on LP and would appreciate your comments on this community as well. Thanks.
Sparky / Steve – Using this as a comp http://cribchatter.com/?p=5467 for the 3 bedroom + rec room I think is appropriate for the 3 bedrooms in the Pointe (sold for $737K or 18% below list). Same neighborhood — Not new, but bigger and less assessments.
This is off topic. But I think I’ve discovered the worst condo purchase in LP. Those places above the old Ranalli’s. The owners have tried to shield their balconys from the resturant pati with plants and bamboo! The noise/roach/rodent issues from the resturant below(The rat activity on the patio has to be staggering considering how many we saw there with there while we were eating). Couldn’t help but think what the cribchat crowd would say about these places.
So here are the numbers as of today. Currently there are 868 active units (attached) on the market in Lincoln Park. Of the 868 units, 182 are now under contract, or 21% of the inventory. This represents a forward looking 4.78 month supply of inventory.
Don’t look now but prices may actually increase in the next 6 months. Get is soon or you will be price out 🙂 😉 😉
rngirl – That is not a comp to the point. The place on Wenster was on an alley and quite small. The 3 bedrooms in the Point are better units.
Hoep this helps…
What about other primo neighborhoods Steve?
“Currently there are 868 active units (attached) on the market in Lincoln Park.”
What about detached, Stevo? You always point out that you specialize in SFHs and then you always post numbers for *at*tached units.
It’s an honest question–I don’t have the info available to me.
I dunno. I work and live in LP and hate all other areas.
Look for new construction in the past 5 years and you will find a lot of devaluation. River North, West Loop, South Loop, Streeterville all got a little out of whack with pricing and supply. They are coming back to earth.
Wipe the froth off and we are ready back to where we should be.
“I dunno. I work and live in LP and hate all other areas.”
Spoken like a true fanboy…
What is a “fanboy?
Yes, we have heard from the SHill since March how his “forward looking” indicator (contracts) would result in increased closings YOY for LP attached starting in May.
Of course, the SHill was, and remains, very wrong. May sales dropped 36% YOY and June dropped 11%. It looks like July closings will drop ~40% YOY.
Are the lowest sales volumes in 20 years really “where we should be,” as the SHill would have his marks believe, or is it a sign that the correction is a long way from over?
The amount of shadow inventory in LP will suppress prices for years. A 2009 purchase in LP is knife-catching, plain and simple.
Oh G, you hang your hat on me being off by 11% when my directional prediction was clearly right. What happended to your call ont he “big crash” in LP coming? What si this “Shadow Inventory” you speak of? why would there be shadow inventory when the ratio between active and contracted properties is so low? What is listed is selling quickly so why would anyone wait? What about those shadow buyers waiting for the “All clear” from the economy? Are there more sellers or more buyers ready to come out?
40% YOY after an 11% June short fall? Will you admit you are stupid if you are wrong by more than 20%? 😉
Let all Remember that G thinks YOY Lincoln Park attached closings will be 40% lower than in 2008.
This will be great!
“Oh G, you hang your hat on me being off by 11%”
LOL. The SHill was off by 36% in May. Why didn’t he mention that?
“40% YOY after an 11% June short fall? Will you admit you are stupid if you are wrong by more than 20%?”
It is July 30th. The SHill does have mls access, right?
“my directional prediction was clearly right.”
ROTFLMAO.
Why don’t you two meet up at the bird sanctuary already and make out for a while?
These lovers quarrels are becoming pretty stale.
One more knee-slapper:
“why would there be shadow inventory when the ratio between active and contracted properties is so low? ”
LOL. Perhaps, because it is better measured by the ratio between expired/cancelled listings and closings?
Let’s here it G… are we heading over to the bird place or what?
Moron!
Again I have to highlight how confused you are. Realtors cancel listing every couple of weeks so they can list them as new again. So how do these cancelations and then relists work into your analysis?
Seriously, you do know you are dumb right? It is really concerning…
Is that really the best “gotcha” that the SHill can come up with?
The relists are removed from the analysis. Did the SHill really not expect that?
What about those July LP att sales?
So you go through and check every cancelation and check to see if the property was relisted or closed?
Do you call each to see if they have decided not to move or really sold off the MLS?
You just keep talking and I just keep thinking… Moron!
Stevo:
Again–serious, honest question–if your focus is on the **Detached** LP market, why do you focus on the attached market here? What are teh detached numbers for ’09?
if steve isn’t bring it up and G isn’t either, then it probably means the numbers are probably neutral. Meaning they don’t benefit either’s position.
“You just keep talking and I just keep thinking… Moron!”
Hilarious.
What about those May, June and July sales?
No, revassal, I’m just not in the office and the intern has left for the day.
I said: “It looks like July closings will drop ~40% YOY.”
The SHill, not realizing it is July 30th responds: “Let all Remember that G thinks YOY Lincoln Park attached closings will be 40% lower than in 2008.
This will be great!”
LMAO. Will be? It already is!
“if steve isn’t bring it up and G isn’t either, then it probably means the numbers are probably neutral. Meaning they don’t benefit either’s position.”
Stevo’s touting condo numbers that are less than apocolyptic and not as good as he predicted as “good”, and that they may be, considering the broader market.
So, if SFH numbers were “better” than the condo numbers, I would expect he would be all over it.
“LMAO. Will be? It already is!”
Oh, G, we all now that tomorrow will see dozens(!!) of closings of LP attached units. Don’t we?
Welllll, the SHill has boasted of his dominance in LP sales.
Then again, he’s not MG so it is just another lie.
How do we know he isn’t MG?
And by the way, revassal, the only one I think I’ve ever heard accusing G of cherrypicking the numbers is Steve Heitman. As far as I can see, G just posts whatever the data says, whether it supports his position or not. And it doesn’t always–certainly not at the micro level.
“How do we know he isn’t MG?”
I don’t have that kind of time. 🙂
To Steve H,
Why all the name calling and brash attitude on the great majority of these discussion boards?? Relax a bit, you’re giving all us Realtors an even worse name than we already have in the general public….Be professional!
Steveo, keep praying that the end of the month, july 31st friday afternoon closing are going to raise the stats! 40% YOY drop….
He’ll be in closings all afternoon tomorrow collecting his checks (if any) so we won’t hear from him until tomorrow night.
hey I didn’t accuse anybody of anything, just guessing. How was I to know why G didn’t post his numbers. BTW I have ask clarification, on number b4 and I feel everybody here has some bias or another(including me), so I wanted to make sure. Better to have some mls numbers than nothing at all. 🙂
Steve might not be the best representative for the bullish point of view but his sentiments are more right, there are properties worth buying (in chicago and elsewhere), and beside it being a very bad economic condition, economic policy has come a long way (these economic policies can work, if we pull back on the fed at the right timep; moreover there has been a lot economic pain, just spread it around), the way our society is constructed it could be taken out easily, but we’ve tried to keep it going this long, why believe its all going to fall apart.
What would the end of the month be without the discussion between G and Steve about the Lincoln Park sales numbers?
I wait for this every month!
Please- do post the updated numbers when you have them.
(Also, Gary, your inventory numbers and graphs in that excellent data you keep.)
If sales are truly down 40% y-o-y in Lincoln Park in July what are they down in some of the other neighborhoods?
G on July 30th, 2009 at 3:47 pm
“It looks like July closings will drop ~40% YOY.”
Steve Heitman on July 30th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
“40% YOY after an 11% June short fall? Will you admit you are stupid if you are wrong by more than 20%?”
Steve Heitman on July 30th, 2009 at 2:26 pm
“Let all Remember that G thinks YOY Lincoln Park attached closings will be 40% lower than in 2008. This will be great!”
Steve Heitman on July 30th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
“Moron!”
Steve Heitman on July 30th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
“Seriously, you do know you are dumb right?”
Steve Heitman on July 30th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
“You just keep talking and I just keep thinking… Moron!”
The numbers are in for July, with a total of 73 attached sales in LP. That is a 39.2% drop from July, 2008.
Historical sales volume for July attached in LP:
1988 73
1989 76
1990 87
1991 84
1992 98
1993 126
1994 112
1995 95
1996 105
1997 117
1998 133
1999 138
2000 110
2001 130
2002 129
2003 176
2004 168
2005 219
2006 143
2007 167
2008 120
2009 73
Sorry, my first post quoted was from 2:01 pm, not 3:47 pm.
Nobody gives a shit about Lincoln park!
“The numbers are in for July, with a total of 73 attached sales in LP. That is a 39.2% drop from July, 2008.”
Hahaha, G, looks like Stevo was right–it was NO.where.close. to 40% down. You must be embarassed.
But seriously, are the detached numbers in LP about the same or worse (or, possible but surprising, better)?
Real estate is set at the margins. That .8% means everything.
“That .8% means everything.”
It was one more closing–not even a rounding issue. Someone (probably MG) pushed one more closing thru before the end of the month. We’ve turned the corner, everyone!
“But seriously, are the detached numbers in LP about the same or worse (or, possible but surprising, better)?”
Sorry, anon, I forgot about that data. Here are the July and YTD thru July 31 sales volume numbers for LP detached houses:
1988 28 103
1989 18 106
1990 10 127
1991 16 111
1992 23 132
1993 18 107
1994 17 137
1995 16 118
1996 19 120
1997 18 108
1998 28 130
1999 27 110
2000 19 100
2001 17 100
2002 16 120
2003 18 100
2004 19 120
2005 17 114
2006 19 124
2007 16 109
2008 22 91
2009 15 59
Those numbers suck! Steve is so angry because his income stream has dried up! Just like the ‘rich’ couple in Kenilworth he cannot pay his IO Jumbo!
Wow…YTD volume looks like a train wreck..
Well Stevo you can at least continue HALF of your dream of living and working in LP. They just opened a bunch of smoothie shops around town and I think there are a few there..
http://www.happyhoundsdw.com/
Happy Hounds Dog Grooming in the Lincoln Park Area! Accepting applications now Steve!
Certainly appears as though G was dead on about the attached sales data, and Steveo very wrong.
However, the detached #’s do not suck, according to what G posted. Yes, YTD volume is way way down. But this indicates the meager pace of the early part of the year, which we knew about already. I, for one, am surprised to see 09 almost exactly in line with 2000-2007. Now, n’s here are small enough to be subject to significant noise, but notice the remarkable consistency going back 20 years. The combination of month and YTD data makes the July 09 sales look downright rosy, at least for those looking through particular shades of glasses.
Anon(tfo) it was the slowest July for detached since 1990.
Just to clarify, I’m not anon(tfo) – hence the ntfo (NOT the first one). I’d like to change the name but since that’s the one that the site recognizes and lets through without moderation, I’ve stuck with it.
And yes, technically the lowest number of sales since 1990, but not significantly different from most bubble years. Were you surprised by that? I was.
Ok homedelete, that is true, but are you really going to quibble about 15 in 2009 instead of 16 in 2007 and 2002, and 17 in 2005 and 2001.
The YTD number is horrid, but the July number in the historical trend (and compared to the YTD) does show what might be starting to resemble a bottom in volume.
My $.02 is that we might be starting to see a volume bottom (just on the basis of the bare number of people that HAVE to move in/out) but that I don’t think we have enough data to decide if we are at a valuation bottom or not. There is no reason that volume can’t stay here or even tick up a little bit while prices continue to fall. Sellers still way out number buyers and are chasing the market down.
“but that I don’t think we have enough data to decide if we are at a valuation bottom or not.”
The CS index for Chicagoland since reaching the peak in September of 2006 has decreased for a total of 27 months and increased for a total of five months. Maybe you aren’t that good at seeing a trend line but I’d like to think I’m better.
Check those default rates on prime loans and jumbos? Know about Alt-A and option-ARM recasts? No more foreclousure moratoriums artificially skewing valuations higher? What about employment?
Sorry dude no evidence to support your claim that we can’t know anything at this point in time. If there is anything I can confidently lay claim to its that housing values are heading lower from here.
Let me guess you see the Dow and S&P and assume all is well? hah..
“Anon(tfo) it was the slowest July for detached since 1990.”
Notwithstanding that he (or she) is not me, I mainly agree with ntfo on this–there are only 5 out of 21 Julys meaningfully busier than this one. The problem for this year is that the first half was off by OVER 50% from pace of the last 21. IF this constituted the entire LP market, Stevo might have a point, but it could just be an anomolous month.
Plus, his reliance on attached numbers make me think there is a subrosa problem with the LP detached market–whether there is a large inventory backlog, or they’re all losing money on their sales or whatever, I don’t know. But Stevo’s not dumb, so there must be something that keeps him from trumpeting this.
Per the WSJ today front page please check the chart entitled ‘Hefty Problem’ showing percent of mortgages falling behind by 60 or more days. Jumbo prime has over 7% of its borrowers at least 60 days behind and conforming prime is just under 5%. Both are rising.
To claim we can’t know where valuations are headed from here is living in fantasy land and disregarding all other evidence showing otherwise.
“Hefty Problem’ showing percent of mortgages falling behind by 60 or more days. Jumbo prime has over 7% of its borrowers at least 60 days behind and conforming prime is just under 5%.”
Any state-by-state breakdown? Not that Ill would be performing well*, but I’d bet the sand states are a whole other level.
*I’d peg us as #5 or 6.
Bob,
For the sake of argument here I’m less interested in the valuation story right now than the volume.
For what it’s worth I don’t think valuations are going up, but I don’t have any confidence where valuations in Lincoln Park will be a year from now. You never know when you are in a bottom until you are past it. I don’t think valuations are going to be up in a year, but I don’t know if they will be flat, down 5%, down 10%, or down even more in one year. You also have to remember that valuation today also has NOTHING to do with what things are listed at right now but what prices things are actually closing at.
As for the broader economy I do see things looking better (even if not great). The blue chip companies save the banks and autos have gotten their act together and this earnings season was pretty darn good. Of course employment is a lagging indicator and I think we will see more employment declines from here and housing is better correlated with income and employment than it is with things like the stock market.
Now if Obama rams though some healthcare monstrosity or greatly increases taxes on the middle and upper class the economy could all fall back to pieces. But at least right now I think that the S&P at 1100 is more likely than 900.
We still have another leg down in this financial mess. Maybe when the rest of the world starts to recover so will we but ask japan how them green shoots be lookin’. I can guarantee that prices in LP will be lower this time next year. I have no doubts.
I should add that the difficulty of finding comps on which to compare valuation is the big problem with valuation. I don’t think there is much value in things like CS or any other purported average of housing price information. The only way to accurately value a home is to compare it to X comparable properties that have sold in the last Y amount of time. We want X as big as possible and Y as small as possible and I will admit to not knowing what those number should be in real estate.
Still, just like when we have no liquidity in any other commodity it becomes very hard to price and as a result I find the volume story more interesting right now since I think it is something that can be much better modeled and understood.
No state by state breakdown unfortunately. Also this is just 60 day delinquincies, the number that go into foreclosure is much lower. But there is obviously strong causation between these and eventual foreclosure numbers.
In fact lenders are allowed to file a notice of default at the 60 day delinquincy level, but apparently not all are. So probably a combination of NOD filed properties and not yet NOD filed properties.
Its an interesting chart only to show that jumbos historically were lower risk than conforming, at least up 1Q 08. Ever since beginning of 2007 their 60 day delinquincy rate has risen much more rapidly than prime loans at an even more rapid clip. The slope for the most recent data (May-09) looks terrifying/like a rocket launch.
Over at Doc HB he used to have numbers for NODs in California but couldn’t find them from a quick browse. He did have an interesting chart on foreclosures though showing 2009 as the busiest year in awhile (obviously):
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/nationwide-foreclosures1.png
“jumbos historically were lower risk than conforming”
Well, yeah, because historically, there was very little subprime jumbo lending and virtually no O-ARMs (really a private client thing ’til y2k). Historically, those with jumbo loans had something to lose and enough money (barring disease/death/felony conviction/etc) to avoid losing it.
No way plain vanilla jumbos are performing worse than conforming mortgages.
You really have to break it out state by state which like the foreclosure data, will show CA, NV, AZ, and FL accounting for probably 80% of the problem. In addition, you then have to take out the Alt-A loans that were underwritten with stated income, investment properties, and fraud. Keep in mind that the above four states also probabyl had the majority of the jumbo lending along with all the other shenanigans.
I don’t think we are going to see much price declines in the sub $500k market. However, unless jumbo lending loosens up, people in that above $500k segment are dead. Absolutely toast.
If you sell your place in that price point and get out without having to bring money to the table, you better take your ass to church every sunday.
“No way plain vanilla jumbos are performing worse than conforming mortgages.”
Not sure if it was plain vanilla jumbos or just the aggregate of all jumbos (regular + creative/toxic). Still 7% 60 days past due and it looks to be rising another percent every quarter..
Also I don’t think you can have discrete segments that don’t affect other segments. Today’s dead seller wanting 600k could be tomorrow’s foreclosure for 400k. I’ve seen it already.
The question is will there be enough foreclosures to affect comps around town. I haven’t seen _too many_ foreclosures at deep discounts, you really have to look for them and they get picked up by investors pretty quickly when the bank finally prices it below market.
“it looks to be rising another percent every quarter”
And Cisco is still doubling revenue ever year (or was it every two quarters?), right?
^^^
As long as the second derivative is still positive I don’t think that gives any reason for optimism.
“I don’t think that gives any reason for optimism.”
You’re doing what the RE bulls did on the way up. I’m not expressing optimism, just doubting that the existence of the trend means the trend will continue at a similar rate.
IIRC 60% of all option arms are in CA. Something like 80% are in the four bubble states, CA, FL, AZ and NV. But IL still has a significant number.
“Just to clarify, I’m not anon(tfo) – hence the ntfo (NOT the first one). I’d like to change the name but since that’s the one that the site recognizes and lets through without moderation, I’ve stuck with it.”
Let’s be clear, anon (ntfo), you chose that name out of MILLIONS of names when you posted your first comment. You could have been James, Justin, Kelly, Kathy, dog, cat or whatever.
I seriously debated whether or not to allow your originally comment through under this name because I thought there would be too much confusion with anon(tfo) who has posted here for quite some time.
Do us all a favor and post under a different name, let me moderate it, and then there won’t be any confusion. Thanks.
fair enough. sorry for the confusion (it really was a snap decision due to posting from a different place, that i wanted to go back on later but didn’t due to the moderation issue). but i will pick a diff’t name.
new name
an ode to mamet
didnt Ze change names. i dont think he was always Z.
G:
Thanks for posting the sales data for LP for July. It truly is shocking to see the decline- especially when comparing over a 21 year period (lots of different economies in that time frame.)
I’m also seeing inventories drop as sellers are pulling listings from the market. It seems to me that a LOT of people think it will be “better” next year and they’re going to wait until next spring to try again.
Hard to explain how 2703 N Southport Unit 1 sold for $795 a year ago and this sells for $715. Would assume that would be reasonable comp. Has the market fallen that much in a year?