Crib Chatter on Vacation This Week: Carry On
It’s time for some time off.
And just in time for the housing slowdown, it appears.
There are lots of properties still on the market from the spring and summer so I’ll be covering many of those when I return.
But there will be a lot of questions for those sellers:
- What if they don’t sell by December? Do they withdraw the listing and re-list in February when the spring buying season begins?
- Or do they keep the property on the market because there are still some buyers looking in December and they might get lucky?
The market has been hot for so many years, not many sellers have had this problem in a long time.
What about the buyers?
- Do you lowball the listings that have been on the market for 6 months or longer?
- And do you rush out to buy this winter, instead of the spring, to lock in lower mortgage rates?
Time will tell.
See you on November 12.
Spring 2019 selling season is going to be quite interesting, especially in areas like the North Shore. I’m of the belief that people dont quite understand how the elimination of SALT deductions will impact their tax situation. There is a lot of older folks up there who are of the age where Florida’s low taxes have to be looking good. The market there is already very slow and any increase in supply will exacerbate it.
I’ll be coming out with my monthly update on Wednesday but I can already tell you that October will be on par with last year. So, as promised, I checked the October cancellation rate. I don’t think it’s materially worse than last year: http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2018/11/not-much-evidence-of-a-slowing-chicago-real-estate-market/
People like you think “The market has been hot for so many years”, but people like me think it rolled over 5 years ago.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CHXRHTSA
“rolled over 5 years ago”
Reasonable to say 4 instead, bc y-o-y gains were good thru Dec-14. Of course, the home index skews suburban.
Condo index has done a little better, until this year:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CHXRCSA
sure, it’s reasonable to say 4 years instead of 5.
Fwiw, other cities look peaky too.
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/10/30/declines-in-the-most-splendid-house-price-bubbles-in-america/
“The market has been hot for so many years, not many sellers have had this problem in a long time.”
Market times are only drifting up a bit and only for condos as inventories drift up. But it’s still pretty good out there.
3 week long vacations this year, not a bad gig Sabrina.
What if they don’t sell by December? Do they withdraw the listing and re-list in February when the spring buying season begins?
It is well-established CC Dogma that re-listing doesn’t fool anyone and may hurt your chances…though it’s never been explained how it is any worse than letting your listing get stale…I guess you just need that Delorean to go back and price it correctly but with a shortage of Deloreans, just fire your agent 🙂
What about the buyers?… to lock in lower mortgage rates?
if we are going to have another RE Bust, it is best to get a variable mortgage rate because even though it will rise in the short term, it will drop again and you’ll benefit the way some lucky people did last time.
Taking your home off the market in November/December sends a signal that you are not desperate and that you are willing to wait to get a better price.
Curious how much the Amazon news will affect the local housing market. I for one am thankful that we didn’t land it, just from a housing affordability perspective downtown.
I’m really looking forward to seeing what happens with North Shore real estate in Spring 2019. I’m of the belief that there are a lot of empty nest, Baby Boomers up there who will be a bit “surprised” at what their tax liability looks like come tax season. The market up there is already very very slow.
Duffer, I’m disappointed for the same reasons you are thankful. I laugh at myself for thinking that Bezos wasn’t going to dupe all of these cities and pull off a stunt like this. Chicago had so much room for them and the additional tax base (employees more so than the company) would’ve helped Chicago. And yes it would’ve boosted home values. I’m selfishly all for that rising tide now that I have a boat.
I’m seeing a lot of properties quickly de-list and re-list either with a small price cut or no-cut. I wish the MLS would implement a 30-60 day freeze on re-listing a property so you can’t keep calling it “new”. If you want to cut the price, cut the price. Don’t de-list and re-list with lower price so it resets the amount of days on the market. It’s deceitful and annoying.
Banning the word “hot” from listing descriptions would also be fantastic.
“It’s deceitful and annoying.”
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They’re real estate agents. It’s what they do. You should see them lie about the borders of Bucktown and then get all huffy when you call them out for it.
“They’re real estate agents. It’s what they do. You should see them lie about the borders of Bucktown and then get all huffy when you call them out for it.”
Your self-loathing is palpable. You should get some help!
Bucktown is a triangle described by Western, North and the Kennedy. Lying about that doesn’t change it.
“Your self-loathing is palpable. You should get some help!”
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As I’ve noted before, I’m not a real estate agent/broker/what-have-you/shill. No self loathing involved.
“Curious how much the Amazon news will affect the local housing market.”
It won’t. Chicago submitted numerous sites, most of which aren’t built out yet. It’s not like the Olympic bid where there was only one location for the main Olympic Stadium so speculators started buying up apartment buildings surrounding the park.
If you want to know what will impact the local housing market- look to the jobs that Google and possibly Salesforce are adding. Google is taking space in a second building in Fulton Market already. Salesforce may choose Chicago as its HQ2 in a new high rise on Wolf Point.
“3 week long vacations this year, not a bad gig Sabrina.”
Isn’t that common for most salaried workers? 3 weeks is 15 days. Many senior employees probably get 20 days, or 4 weeks, with personal days and national holidays on top of that.
I think most people don’t bother to take a full week off. They think that 3 or 4-day “long” weekends are sufficient. Most Americans don’t use their vacation time every year. It’s a real shame.
You don’t have to go anywhere. You can do a staycation and enjoy all that Chicago and the suburbs have to offer. There’s plenty to do in Chicago and/or you can take a quick train ride and enjoy a lot of the surrounding areas for pretty cheap as well.
“Market times are only drifting up a bit and only for condos as inventories drift up. But it’s still pretty good out there.”
How can you tell if people are de-listing and listing it again as “new”?
I’m happy to report that I’ve finally managed to launch the new website. There will be some kinks and other things as I adjust it.
But you all will be glad to know that you can now read it easily on your phones! Whoo-hoo! Crib Chatter has finally arrived in the modern era.
“How can you tell if people are de-listing and listing it again as “new”?”
I can’t. However, I counted all cancellations in last Monday’s post, which would include these. The total were not that much higher than last year.
BTW, the Submit Comment button below looks like Submit Co in Firefox.
“As I’ve noted before, I’m not a real estate agent”
Exactly what a self-loathing real estate agent would be expected to say!
“But you all will be glad to know that you can now read it easily on your phones! Whoo-hoo! Crib Chatter has finally arrived in the modern era.”
CHANGE IS SCARY AND I HATE IT!!!!
“How can you tell if people are de-listing and listing it again as “new”?”
I look the property up on Zillow, where you can see the pricing history. It doesn’t show it as a new listing, but as a decrease.