How Big Is Chicago’s Shadow Inventory? 1104 W. Montana in Lincoln Park
This 1-bedroom in a vintage courtyard building at 1104 W. Montana in Lincoln Park recently came on the market.
It is listed as a short sale.
But those of you who have been a Crib Chatter regular for a few years might recognize it from our chatter in 2008.
Back in May 2008, the listing said the sale was due to a “job relocation out of state” and that the 1-bedroom unit, listed for $256,000, had appraised at $270,000 in October 2007.
The listing said: “seller’s loss is your gain.”
See our May 2008 chatter and pictures of the interior of the unit here.
8 months later- it was still on the market and reduced further.
By then a Craigslist ad said the seller was considering all offers and that a short sale was possible.
See our December 2008 chatter here.
At that time, some of you thought it would probably sell for around $225k- except for Homedelete (who was taken to task for not understanding the prestige of living in Lincoln Park.)
Here’s homedelete’s guess:
“Regardless, this is a rental: No parking, no central a.c., no washer-dryer and radiator heat (I hate radiator heat). It ain’t worth no $250k and probably not even $200k in the whole scheme of things.”
The unit was then withdrawn from the market.
What happened to it from December 2008 to June 2011 when it returned to the market as a “real” short sale?
I’m assuming it was rented out.
This unit is yet another example of Chicago’s “shadow inventory”- or inventory that will, at some point, come back onto the market.
The Medill Reports recently reported on this phenomena:
Take Nikkie Hartmann, whose Albany Park condo is now worth $80,000, 44 percent less than the $143,000 she paid for it in 2006. She carries a mortgage for 100 percent of the purchase price.
“I am so underwater in my loan that I don’t believe I will be able to sell it for many years,” Hartmann said. She is renting out the property for $850 per month.
In fact, Illinois has the third-largest shadow inventory in the nation, following Florida and California, with 121,266 properties waiting to be sold, according to the National Association of Realtors in a March report.
Standard & Poor’s Corp. estimated that at the end of the first quarter, Chicago had a 65-month supply of such homes, meaning it would take more than five years to clear the shadow inventory. That compares with an average 52-month supply for the entire U.S.
Foreclosure-related sales accounted for almost 30 percent of all Illinois home transactions in the first quarter of 2011, according to a report released last week by RealtyTrac, the online listing firm for distressed properties. Illinois had 5,529 foreclosure-related sales in the first quarter, down from about 38 percent in the first quarter last year and about six percent lower than in the fourth quarter.
RealtyTrac said earlier this month that Illinois home foreclosure activity fell about 17 percent in April compared to the previous month. But it pointed out that most of the slowdown can be attributed to delays in processing foreclosures, which implies there are more properties yet to hit the market.
‘Shadow inventory’ weighs on Chicago housing market [Medill Reports, Annie Chung, June 1, 2011]
The 1-bedroom at 1104 W. Montana is now listed $7100 under the 2001 purchase price.
Back in 2008, many of you thought it wasn’t badly priced. (My how pricing expectations have changed!)
It has hardwood floors throughout and some built-ins.
It has a separate dining room but does not have in-unit washer/dryer, central air or deeded parking.
The kitchen has granite counter tops and white appliances.
What will this 1-bedroom now ultimately sell for?
Katharine Dolan at Exit Strategy Realty has the listing. See the pictures here.
Unit #2: 1 bedroom, 1 bath, no square footage listed, dining room
- Sold in September 1996 for $116,000
- Sold in August 2001 for $177,000
- Sold in July 2006 for $250,000
- Was listed in May 2008 for $256,000
- Lis pendens filed in August 2008
- Reduced
- Was listed in December 2008 for $244,000
- Withdrawn
- Returned to the market as a “short sale” in June 2011 for $174,000
- Reduced
- Currently listed at $169,900
- Assessments of $246 a month (includes heat)
- Taxes of $3035
- No central air
- No in-unit washer/dryer (its in the building though)
- No parking
- Bedroom: 14×11
- Livingroom: 19 x 11
- Dining room: 11 x 10
How much will this unit rent for? I cannot imagine renting a no W/D place myself.
BTW, that kitchen is sad. I had better rentals in grad school.
Unlike HD, I love radiators.
A couple of things:
1. You can’t cherry pick a few properties and write that they are representative of all properties/all property types out there (the same way you can’t use CSI for a particular neighborhood – let alone a particular property type).
2. Everyone on this site always talks about how the 2/2 or 1/1 condos are no longer going to be sought after – however, nobody mentions the baby boomers who are tired of the maint. on their big houses in the suburbs (oh wait, I’m sorry – you DO mention those people – only when spreading your gloom and doom about suburban houses) – many of these boomers will downsize. Also, people fail to remember that more and more people are leading single lives (confirmed bachelors/bachelorettes, gays, divorcees, widow, widowers). In addition, a contingent is out there who want in-towns.
So the question becomes, “why isn’t this place selling?” – well – look at who is buying right now (see above) – basically, if the place was upgraded, parking “added”, space-pac put in and re-listed (even at a much higher price) it would sell. It’s not about the price in this market – it’s about understanding your target buyer and appeasing them. Right now, the buyers out there have money (see above again) – you just need to know what they want- it isn’t that hard….
“So the question becomes, “why isn’t this place selling?” – well – look at who is buying right now (see above) – basically, if the place was upgraded, parking “added”, space-pac put in and re-listed (even at a much higher price) it would sell. ”
Possibly because properties in this price range near this location rarely have parking. Getting off street parking included would probably work wonders. But it isn’t so easy to add parking.
For 165k you can get a one bedroom with central air on a top floor a little further north in LV without going through the short sale process (MLS 07729698). Is this LP location really worth the lack of an amenity?
“nobody mentions the baby boomers who are tired of the maint. on their big houses in the suburbs”
Typically when baby boomers want a city place to downsize into it has the same or more amenities than their suburban digs. This property doesn’t fit that bill.
Small, not-at-all-renovated, no parking, no w/d, and in a location suitable only for a DePaul student (especially be a one-bed). That’s what this is, essentially: off-campus student housing.
It just doesn’t make sense that it sold for $250k in 06. Heck, I rented a very similar place around that time, at Surf and Sheridan (arguably a much better location, unless one’s a DePaul student), for I think $725/mo.
I’m reluctant to view this listing as an indication of any sort of significant “shadow inventory” in LP. Maybe there are a lot of units waiting in the wings out in DePaulville (though I wonder how many one beds there are). But not to any significant degree in the areas where non-students want to live long-term.
“Maybe there are a lot of units waiting in the wings out in DePaulville”
On Montana specifically– 915 W seems to have a few rental quality 1/1s that often appear on the market.
Why anyone would want to buy this to live there, I will never know. This is a Depaul rental unit only. When the price is right for someone to buy and rent the property out, this place will sell. Until then, it will sit.
Exactly Mike. That is why I was asking what is the rent for this.
Clio, I had mentioned the many of my neighbors are folks whose kids have moved out and not they have moved from the burbs to the city. I doubt those folks would buy 1BRs though after being used to having a large place at the burbs for many years. 2/2s are another story.
The percent distressed sales in May dropped to the lowest level since November, possibly due to the processing delays: http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-real-estate-getting-real/2011/06/is-chicagos-2011-real-estate-market-turning-into-another-dud.html
but then we’d expect it to return to the 50% level soon.
You have to really need to live around DePaul to want a place like this. It makes me feel claustrophobic just to look at the photos.
I am seeing many listings for similar, but larger and more attractive units in locations I consider better, like 440 W. Surf, for comparable prices and I notice they are not selling. Have a couple in the Surf building that have been on the market for a year with a couple of price reductions.
I have a “saved” list of about 100 condos in Rogers Park, Edgewater, Lakeview, and LP, and there are many condos that disappear from the listings after steep prices, just to reappear at a lower price. They keep coming back like bad checks, as contracts fall through (most likely for lack of financing).
You’ve got to give HD credit…his predictions of what certain homes will sell for in today’s market aren’t always accurate, but they do seem to fall in line with where many of the prices on these places are going. It is difficult to time predictions accurately given the outside forces affecting the market correction and how long the foreclosure process for most homes is proving to be.
“You’ve got to give HD credit…his predictions of what certain homes will sell for in today’s market aren’t always accurate, but they do seem to fall in line with where many of the prices on these places are going. ”
uhhh – not really – I’m a doctor and I can predict that most 90+ y/o in the ICU are going to die – that doesn’t mean that I am a genius – it just means that I picked a subset of the general population and am making a logical prediction. There is nothing special about HD’s predictions or Sabrina’s skewed choices of featured properties.
“The percent distressed sales in May dropped to the lowest level since November, possibly due to the processing delays: http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-real-estate-getting-real/2011/06/is-chicagos-2011-real-estate-market-turning-into-another-dud.html
but then we’d expect it to return to the 50% level soon.”
It’s not just the moritoriums. It’s also due to the typical seasonality of non-distressed purchasers along with the lack of seasonality exhibited by investors (who make up a large part of distressed purchases.)
Translation: if you care about any 90 year olds, don’t send them to Clio.
Thank you Sabrina.
Why on earth would anyone want to buy now (despite all of the facts)? Prices are still going to go lower. I just saw a foreclosure at 6201 N. Melvina for about 197K. It’s in ready to move in condition. This same home was worth about 500K in November 2006 according to zillow. Probably worth 550K to 600K when people were tripping over themselves to buy a home between 2004 to late 2005.
Folks we are in the middle of a housing depression. Now the biggest elephant in the room is the baby boomers who will sell their homes. Sorry Clio to burst your bubble but the average baby boomer isn’t flushed with cash. They have less than $50,000 in cash for retirement. http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/yourlife/2449 and http://www.zero2rich.com/average-retirement-savings.html and
http://www.bls.gov/opub/cwc/cm20050114ar01p1.htm
The baby boomers don’t have enough savings. If their home is paid off then they have no other alternative than to sell their home.
Clio, here’s an idea: if, despite the constant flow of negative stories and factors pushing RE down, depite the properties city-wide languishing on the market, despite the price drops in GZ hoods on even stellar properties, you think there is sufficient evidence that certain hoods are immune to this downturn, post that evidence.
It takes about 15 minutes to create a blitzing blog. Just do it. Prove us wrong.
now Brian that is unfair. Clio has a point. In a crazy bubble these things were selling but honestly some of these properties only make sense as rentals. you’d think a landlord would buy the whole building and then rent to DePaul folks. It is weird that someone individually bought this unit.
LOL at clio. Where was his logic when he bet me that this month’s Chicago sales volume would top last year’s June total? That would be last June’s dough4dumps free money closing rush volume, btw. LOL.
“You’ve got to give HD credit…his predictions of what certain homes will sell for in today’s market aren’t always accurate, but they do seem to fall in line with where many of the prices on these places are going. ”
uhhh – not really – I’m a doctor and I can predict that most 90+ y/o in the ICU are going to die – that doesn’t mean that I am a genius – it just means that I picked a subset of the general population and am making a logical prediction. There is nothing special about HD’s predictions or Sabrina’s skewed choices of featured properties.
Clio that is a very silly argument. You are a housing bull and Home Delete is a housing bear. Ever since I followed this website, you have kept saying “brighter days are ahead”. Sorry to break this to you; but you were wrong.
Moomoo, if you believe that clio would have ever correctly predicted a decline in even apartment-grade condos, I got a ranch in Batavia to sell you.
Now there is this place I have been interested in that just went under contract after multiple reductions. I am curious what (if) it sells for as it will make the comp for the others.
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1211-S-Prairie-Ave-60605/unit-3205/home/14739404
Miumiu does that make you a luxaholic?!
I think these were previously bought by the parents of DePaul students who assumed they’d always make money on them.
i am changing over 10 dippers a day darling. there is nothing luxurious about me any more…lol..but Deux Deux is so worth it!
“Miumiu does that make you a luxaholic?!”
“It is weird that someone individually bought this unit.’
Well- someone “weirdly” bought it as a condo in 1996- well before there was such a thing as a “housing bubble.”
Are you saying that the housing market as we’ve known it in Chicago for the last 15 to 20 years was somehow “wrong” or “illogical”? Plenty of 1-bedrooms and 2-bedroom condos have sold over that time period in the prime north side neighborhoods.
“if, despite the constant flow of negative stories and factors pushing RE down, depite the properties city-wide languishing on the market, despite the price drops in GZ hoods on even stellar properties, you think there is sufficient evidence that certain hoods are immune to this downturn, post that evidence.”
TftinChi – look at redfin – and sort by days on the market – you can see that there are a lot of properties that go under contract within days that are NOT short sales, NOT foreclosures, and NOT great buys… why is that?
“When the price is right for someone to buy and rent the property out, this place will sell.”
So, what, about $90k? Until inflation hits rents?
“Ever since I followed this website, you have kept saying “brighter days are ahead”. Sorry to break this to you; but you were wrong.”
Nimesh–if you really think that there aren’t brighter days ahead, ever, I dunno what to say.
“You’ve got to give HD credit…his predictions of what certain homes will sell for in today’s market aren’t always accurate, but they do seem to fall in line with where many of the prices on these places are going. ”
He (and G) have consistently been predicting it would go much lower- when everyone else has been saying, “no, no, no.” It’s interesting to see that 3 years ago most people thought $225k was a deal for this unit. And now that it’s listed even cheaper- no one will touch it. I bet this sells in the low $100s.
it was not illogical when prices kept going up. you bought even a junk and could later sell it for profit and say upgrade. hindsight is 20/20 of course but personally i am against buying cheap poorly made things be it a pair of shoes or an apartment.
“Are you saying that the housing market as we’ve known it in Chicago for the last 15 to 20 years was somehow “wrong” or “illogical”? Plenty of 1-bedrooms and 2-bedroom condos have sold over that time period in the prime north side neighborhoods.”
“It’s interesting to see that 3 years ago most people thought $225k was a deal for this unit.”
It was. At the time. Buying a christmas beanie baby bear was a deal at $20 when they were going for $40. Sure, everyone could predict that they would go to $1, but that was the market at the time.
That’s the problem with predictions on this site. Some people predict what the property will sell for today. Other’s predict what it will be worth in the future. Two different things.
There ARE brighter days ahead- once the shadow inventory is worked through. It will be years. I predict 5 to 7 years.
Only right now are homesellers figuring out that they’re not going to get anywhere near what they paid just 5 years ago. So, at least for condo owners, but even some SFH (Vince Vaughn, Ted Lilly’s southport home), they are renting them out. All of those properties will come back on the market at some point. What then? I predict it will be 3 to 4 years. They really don’t want to be landlords (and certainly not those with condos who move to the suburbs to buy their SFH.)
“He (and G) have consistently been predicting it would go much lower- when everyone else has been saying, “no, no, no.” It’s interesting to see that 3 years ago most people thought $225k was a deal for this unit. And now that it’s listed even cheaper- no one will touch it. I bet this sells in the low $100s.”:
OK – I am predicting housing will be higher in 5 years – are you going to give me credit when this happens? It isn’t that hard to make these predictions. No kudos have been earned by these two.
I think this goes for $150,000. And even that is overpaying, but once prices get low enough, all the fools come out and think they will “make a killing” on the supposed recovery that is coming soon.
“TftinChi – look at redfin – and sort by days on the market – you can see that there are a lot of properties that go under contract within days that are NOT short sales, NOT foreclosures, and NOT great buys… why is that?”
Days on the market on redfin is NOT an accurate portrait of how quickly things are selling. All the agents do is re-list the property every month (sometimes every week) to make it “new” on the listings. That causes the market time data to be skewed.
“Days on the market on redfin is NOT an accurate portrait of how quickly things are selling.”
oh yeah – but I guess CSI and cribchatter are..?
“It isn’t that hard to make these predictions.”
No one else was making these predictions in 2008. Even today- very few are making the prediction that we will go back to, say, 1995 prices.
That house that Nimesh posted above is listd under the 1998 price.
PS inflatable rat fans – there’s a bunch of strikers with one on Adams by Sears Tower this morning if you want to go get a photo with it.
Show me the stats Clio. Oh wait- you don’t have any!
But I do: Lowest sales in 20 years. That’s the only stat I need to know. It tells me everything I need to know about this market.
Sabrina:
I re-read–only 2 people said anything above $200k–Logansquarean ($220) and Kenworthy (closer to $200)–in either of the threads. Closest to consensus was $177 to $180. In a different market.
If the equivalent rent were $1200, maybe justify $140k as an o/o; if it’s $1000, maybe justify $100k. Considerably less if held for rental.
sabrina a weather predictor that predicts rain every day in a place the rains 90% of the time looks pretty good after all it is right 90% of time, right? well guess what it is not really. I like HD a lot but he is always low balling and is way off on things that sell quickly. He is the constant rain predictor which is doing well as the market is rainy.
Properties such as this will decrease much more than other properties, as the buyers are limited. clio, no baby-boomer is going to buy a walk-up in a DePaul dorm, no investor will buy at this price, students would rather rent (large apt with roommates), one-bedrooms inherently have a limited market, and potential buyers are further limited because there is a lack of expected amenities. Who will buy this at this price? I think the current price is too high.
Jennifer–Thx. I’ll have to try to make it over.
Nimesh’s 6201 Melvina posting wound up with $400k in mortgages on it. Freddie Mac is the current owner, Citi the originating lender on both 1st and 2d mtg. Looks like they reno’d the place, maybe including building the sunroom, with the $$. Put over 25% down in 1998.
Everyone thinks the market will come back to what it was a few years ago. It will hopefully recover eventually but it will not come roaring back. Two different things.
clio: “oh yeah – but I guess CSI and cribchatter are..?”
This is why you can’t play this game successfully, clio. It takes only a passing familiarity with RedFin to know that the “days listed” stats are bogus. It takes only a morning or two reading MLS listing to see how they game the system by de-and-re-listing to hide old asking prices, obfuscate the number of bedroom, living space, etc. All of those things are easy to see.
The numbers out there trying to quantify the market are far from perfect. They don’t measure hyper-local markets well, for example (neighborhoods vs. cities). And they may be based on educated guesses (for example shadow inventory).
But the chief advantage most of those numbers have is that they try to accurately capture the state of the market. With MLS or agent provided data, you KNOW they have absolutely no reason to be truthful. They are an organization built around selling you something. They are simply not a credible source of information. Do you go to tobacco companies to find the true health risks of smoking? Do you talk to a used car salesman to figure out the service rate of a 2004 escort?
So my challenge stands: if there is sufficient, credible evidence out there showing that the GZ neighborhoods in Chicago are immune to this downturn, show us. Post the numbers. If the situation is as clear as you make it sound, it should be a trivial task.
But you won’t.
Because the numbers out there that show RE in a positive light right now overwhelmingly come from people with vested interest in RE selling. There simply aren’t a lot of independent voices talking up RE. And even fewer stats or analysis doing so.
It is easy to accuse Sabrina, HD, et al of cherry picking properties to make the market look bad. It is a lot harder to actually make the market look good. Prove me wrong.
“No one else was making these predictions in 2008.”
Sure they were.
“Even today- very few are making the prediction that we will go back to, say, 1995 prices.”
This is true. I think most see 1998 as the “baseline”.
“It is easy to accuse Sabrina, HD, et al of cherry picking properties to make the market look bad. It is a lot harder to actually make the market look good.”
The market IS bad. There are no 2 ways about it. But I think today’s SELLING prices are relatively low risk if you have a 5-7 year horizon. Listing prices are a completely different story.
“Everyone thinks the market will come back to what it was a few years ago.”
Um, who? I don’t think I’ve heard anyone not associated with NAR and/or Steveo assert that anything like 2005/6 is coming anytime soon (and by that I mean 20+ years), and even they say things with plausible deniability.
That rain analogy is flawed unless you believe Chicago RE values only go down.
“That rain analogy is flawed unless you believe Chicago RE values only go down.”
But they’ve been going down for 5 years, G!! Look at that trend line–withing the decade people will be *paying you* to take houses off their hands, as everyone will consider them liabilities!!! And, not that it need be said, you’d be a fool to accept it, as someone else will pay you more tomorrow to take a larger, nicer house, in a better neighborhood!!!!
““Everyone thinks the market will come back to what it was a few years ago.”
Um, who? I don’t think I’ve heard anyone not associated with NAR and/or Steveo assert that anything like 2005/6 is coming anytime soon (and by that I mean 20+ years), and even they say things with plausible deniability.”
Poor word choice. I shouldn’t say “everyone”. I should say many people I encounter, which by no means includes an overwhelmingly large number of people nor a sizeable portion of the population. 😀
I guess it’s like at a cocktail party someone will say “I want to sell my place but I’m so underwater” and someone will inevitably say “oh the market will recover”
GZ one bedrooms are headed down, note what is happening to one bedrooms in non GZ, especially in some suburbs. LISTEd prices are in the five figures. GZ is not immune, it just takes longer.
I looked at some of these as non GZ 1 bedrooms investments and would not buy because the assessments are too high and the potential for building repairs is too great.
“That rain analogy is flawed unless you believe Chicago RE values only go down.”
Then in HD’s case, it is perfect.
People who own homes are unnecessarily worrying. – sure, values have gone down and some may be underwater – but if those owners do not need to sell, they shouldn’t worry at all. It is the same as the stock market going down (but on a different time scale) – don’t look at your portfolio everyday – you will be depressed. Again, the market WILL come back – give it 5-10 years and most people will have forgotten about the 2008-2011 drop. It happens all the time…..
“People who own homes are unnecessarily worrying. – sure, values have gone down and some may be underwater – but if those owners do not need to sell, they shouldn’t worry at all. ”
Well, that’s not true. People who bought in 2005/6 have a lot to worry about. They will likely never break even. Like the naz 5000 investors.
“Again, the market WILL come back – give it 5-10 years and most people will have forgotten about the 2008-2011 drop.”
What about the 2006-2011 drop?
Blah. Blah. Blah.
There’s at least two types of buyers right now, neither of whom is doing much buying right now, but for different reasons:
Prospective Buyer #1 – “I don’t care so much about WHERE I live, but I do care about getting either (i) as big a place as possible, ideally a SFH, and/or (ii) a price that’s along the lines of pre-2000 era pricing. Right now, there is SO MUCH inventory for me to see, not to mention all the shadow inventory. Even if I had time to see it all, I would be a fool to buy something now. As proof of this, please see any of G’s impressive lists/stats or any of HD’s well-reasoned assessments of the market.”
Prospective Buyer #2 – “I don’t want to live out in the hinterlands of a premium neighborhood, nor do I want to live in a perfectly nice-albeit-too-far-from-the-lake-and/or-loop neighborhood. Basically, I DO care where I live, and I realize that, while the truly premium neighborhoods are not immune from downturns, they have weathered them better. But most importantly, I realize that life is short, and one must spend a lot of time at work in order to have nice things and/or a family, so when one’s not at work, being in as nice an area as possible is paramount. Even in this midwestern-car dependent-SFH obsessed area, the three L’s of real estate trump all else – for me as a buyer and as an eventual seller. Unfortunately, despite the market being down, QUALITY properties in the VERY BEST locations are few and far between. G’s lists/stats do not seem to reflect the state of the market in which I am interested in living, nor do HD’s assessments seem to bear at all on my desired residence.”
Right, Perspective Buyer #2 just bought a condo in LP, didn’t you Annony?
If you’ve lived in your place for 17 years, even if it’s a 2/1 condo, you’re still probably ok:
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/343-W-Dickens-Ave-60614/unit-D/home/13347927
(bought in 94 for $176k)
p.s. I believe “plaintain shutters” are the type made in banana republics.
well said annony except that I’d say in scenario 2, G’s data still shows decline in prices in prime locations albeit not as much as lesser quality areas. LP, Streeterville, RN, SL,…all have declined too.
Not a pretty picture.
Baby Boomers are aging, and many likely to want/need to sell their home and downsize, whether to buy smaller unit or increasingly more likely to rent a smaller unit. Note many Baby Boomers have little retirement savings despite significantly increased life-expectancy, and will be reliant upon SS and home equity (if any).
Population younger than Baby Boomers face higher taxes, higher living expenses, higher education/college costs for kids, continued uncertain job market and unpredictable employment stability, etc. Less likely (than Baby Boomers) to “max-out” home purchase beyond conservative lending parameters.
Youngest college-grads face weak job market and often significant student loan debt, which likely their home purchase buying power for years, if not decades. Read recently that SS can be garnished for student loan debt. Some young M.Arch-grad architects now face 6-digit loan debt with debt payments into their middle-age, for instance, without major income “bounce” potential given for MBAs, MDs, or some JDs.
Subdivision single-family/low-rise suburban developers still fallow. High-density city residential developers interested only in downtown high-rise rental apartment projects. Large inventory of recently-constructed condos, unsold. Many shaky city and suburban condo associations in trouble, facing budget fall-out from delinquent assessments, foreclosures, uptick in renters and one-off inexperienced landlords, etc. “Gut renovation”/major home remodeling market still very slow.
Looks like there will be more inventory than buyers for foreseeable future, per local housing economists such as Tracy Cross. He predicts no recovery until at least 2016.
Everyone on this site is either too young or too forgetful to realize that real estate is a long-term game. You have to hang on to a property for a long time to realize gains – that has ALWAYS been the rule (until the earlly 2000s when flipping became popular). We are just going back to the basics. If you buy a good place now, hold on to it for 20-30 years, you will likely do fairly well. Think about it – people who bought in 1990-1999 are still doind OK even in this very DOWN market). You have to have a long term perspective. Unfortunately, young people nowadays don’t have that type of patience!!!
#2 is known as The Knifecatcher’s Creed.
Regarding recovery, it took OP/RF home prices 30+ years to recover from the depression. I spent several hours at the Oak Park Historical Society’s archives several years ago, researching home price histories. They maintained “house-price” cards on specific houses, which made search fairly easy. Home prices in late 20s (often builder’s price) was very close to 60s prices for houses constructed. Foreclosure prices in 30s was often 50% builder’s price, because mortgages were usually 50% purchase price.
I don’t expect a 5-year “bounce back” in home prices for Chicago market, on a house-by-house basis.
“You have to hang on to a property for a long time to realize gains – that has ALWAYS been the rule”
But when you buy at the top of the bubble, there is no saving you, no matter how long you wait.
“If you buy a good place now, hold on to it for 20-30 years, you will likely do fairly well.”
That is much different than buying in 2006. 20-30 years from now you may still be underwater.
“Everyone on this site is either too young or too forgetful to realize that real estate is a long-term game. ”
Yeah. Everyone except you. As always, you’re the expert and *everyone* else is a fool.
Yeah, things are looking pretty grim, especially when you combine this with the much stricter underwriting in place today. This unit is a rental property. Wouldn’t it be tough to get a loan on this place if there’s more than a certain percentage of renters in it? You might as well buy the whole building, and not just one unit here.
The demographics of income distribution are startling, even for those with advanced degrees from good schools. There are just fewer individuals in their 30’s earning $125K plus compared to 2005, due to the recession and cutbacks, and much fewer of those who are in the $125K-150K range think they realistically can double or triple their income with a few big years. of course, there’s still your lawyers, traders, and doctors, but is the potential to increase their pay as high as people believed 5-10 years ago? I remember in 2005 when my friends thought their incomes would double every 8-9 years.
“#2 is known as The Knifecatcher’s Creed.”
This may be a stupid question, but do you currently own or rent?
Meant to say “houses constructed in late 20s to mid 30s”. Our house was worth pretty much same amount from its construction in mid-30s to mid-60s, when factoring value of large addition constructed in late 50s.
“That is much different than buying in 2006. 20-30 years from now you may still be underwater.”
Depends how you are using underwater. If you bought in 2006, and just pay your mortgage, in 20 years (and certainly 30), one should expect to sell for more than the outstanding mortgage.
“Depends how you are using underwater.”
Underwater from purchase price.
“That is much different than buying in 2006. 20-30 years from now you may still be underwater.”
Really? – please, don’t be ridiculous. How the f could anyone be underwater in 30 years? First of all, in 30 years, the place will be paid off. 2nd of all, appreciation WILL start occurring (albeit at low pre-boom levels (3%/year). Thirdly, inflation will add to appreciation. Seriously, very few people who are in real estate for the long haul lose out.
1) Poor choice of words (underwater) by me.
2) If you buy a place in 2006 for 400k, and it’s worth 400k in 2036, you have most definitely lost out over the long haul.
“appreciation WILL start occurring (albeit at low pre-boom levels (3%/year)”
This is something that is misunderstood on both sides. Some people here will argue that real estate only returned 1 or 2% annually for the last 100 years.
But real estate is usually a leveraged investment. So if you invest 50k on a 500k property, and it goes up 3%, your 50k investment has increased 30% (ignoring closing costs, etc).
So, a 1-2% increase isn’t too shabby if you are levered 5 or 10 to 1. If you own it outright, 1-2% is a pretty lousy investment.
” If you buy a place in 2006 for 400k, and it’s worth 400k in 2036, you have most definitely lost out over the long haul.”
If you buy a place in 2006 for 400K and it’s worth 400K in 2036 — you didn’t make/save as much as you might have some other way, but you essentially got your rent money back for the last 30 years.
I agree with Architect’s comments above. The picture is still pretty grim. At least if you buy now, you won’t be as screwed as those who bought in 2006. Who knows how many decades it will take for those prices to be back to 2006 levels, especially when adjusted for inflation. It may take 40-50 years.
I really dont think this property on Montana is indicative of the market as bad as the market is right now. Not only does it seem claustrophbic with no amenities but what is going on with the bathroom? This just looks like a really sad place.
“If you buy a place in 2006 for 400k, and it’s worth 400k in 2036, you have most definitely lost out over the long haul.”
Huh? – so many things wtong with this:
1. In 30 years, there is no way the place will still be worth 400k (bc of appreciation, inflation,etc.)
2. OK – if we say that you are right and it IS worth 400k in 3036 – you still are WAY ahead – rents continually go up over the long haul and your “rent” on this place will be minimal for the last 10 years of your mortgage. in 3036, you will own the property outright and only be paying the assm/taxes. compare this with a person who rents for 30 years – they will continue to pay increasing and increasing amounts for rent (as opposed to a relatively fixed cost of a mortgage). Then, in 30 years, they are left with nothing while you have a 400k asset.
Again, it isn’t that hard a concept to understand, people.
“Who knows how many decades it will take for those prices to be back to 2006 levels, especially when adjusted for inflation.”
When adjusted to real dollars, it is highly unlikely to happen in our life times.
“Some people here will argue that real estate only returned 1 or 2% annually for the last 100 years.”
The cold, hard numbers will “argue” that, too. Just depends how one measures inflation.
wow what a horrible crapbox of an apartment
good for a college student though, that’s about it.
some landlord will scoop this up for rental parity price when it goes to forclosure in a few years
And predicting prices isn’t that hard
POS property with many major flaws will sell around 95-99 price
average places with few major flaws will sell around 2002 prices
nice places will sell around 2004/5 prices
these are all assuming no major renovations have been done
“nice places will sell around 2004/5 prices”
That’s optimistic.
Some props in some locations, sure; in general, in real dollars? Not anytime soon.
“Again, it isn’t that hard a concept to understand, people.”
It appears to be way too hard for you. There are so many things wrong with what you wrote I don’t know where to start.
“This may be a stupid question, but do you currently own or rent?”
All of the above.
““This may be a stupid question, but do you currently own or rent?”
All of the above.
”
That explains a lot – frustration, anger and irritation regarding the market….and then there is the attempt to convince everyone that all of real estate is terrible so you don’t feel so bad about your decisions. Well, sorry – my real estate investments are doing JUST FINE!!! actually – return on all my investments (bought during the bubble) are a healthy 5-6%.
Quit projecting clio.
“Why on earth would anyone want to buy now (despite all of the facts)?”
Whatever happened to buying a place because you can afford it and need a place to live? The days of buying a place because you want to sell it in two years and make bank are over, but people still need a place to live, and its still a better deal than renting.
Please not yet another Clio vs G.
Red G – you make a lot of sense. I don’t know why people don’t understand this.
“I really dont think this property on Montana is indicative of the market as bad as the market is right now. Not only does it seem claustrophbic with no amenities but what is going on with the bathroom? This just looks like a really sad place.”
well market is comprised of the crappy 1BRs and amazing multi million mansions and everything in between so definitely some terrible 1BR is not indicative of the entire market but Sabrina posts on all kinds of houses all over the city. Unless you are in denial you’d see prices have gone and are going down.
“its still a better deal than renting.”
For many people in most situations, yep. But do you really think that buying *this* 1/1 is a better deal than renting something pretty similar nearby?
Why?
“Whatever happened to buying a place because you can afford it and need a place to live? The days of buying a place because you want to sell it in two years and make bank are over, but people still need a place to live, and its still a better deal than renting.”
I don’t think this is terrible advice in a lot of circumstances. But at the same time, the current market has shown that you can’t just say “RE prices don’t go down, just buy a place and stop worrying.”
Some people HAVE to worry about this. People are a lot more mobile these days. Career changes are commonplace. Job changes are even more frequent. While a lot of people still stay in the same city for their entire lives, more and more people count on being able to move if they need to. So the liquidity factor is very important for some people.
Maybe not this place in particular, but in a nice 1/1 in a full amenity building at a good price, why not?
And obviously it depends on people’s situations, etc. But if you’re planning on staying put, i don’t see why not buy if you’re in a position to do so. At the same time, there are a lot of reasons NOT to buy and those can vary by a wide margin. That’s why there’s a rental market.
So what’s a buyer in 2006 to do?
“So what’s a buyer in 2006 to do?”
Rent. Because if you look at the rent vs own equation then, it made MUCH more sense to rent. Now, it is closer to parity.
“a nice 1/1 in a full amenity building at a good price, why not?”
Because a “good” price in a full amenity building is still $300k+ for something few people pre-retirement see as a 10+ year residence?
“compare this with a person who rents for 30 years – they will continue to pay increasing and increasing amounts for rent (as opposed to a relatively fixed cost of a mortgage).”
2 examples of this:
Friend number 1 rented a studio in Adams Morgan in Washington DC for $480/mo back in 1996. I kept telling him to buy a house (they were cheap then) and rent the rooms to his friends until his mortgage was paid off. But he didn’t want the commitment. Today he still lives in the same studio, only his rent is $1,050/mo.
Friend number 2 rented a luxury 1BR in Midtown East in Manhattan 3 years ago for $3,000/mo. He had the option to rent a studio for a little less. I told him to just go for the studio since he was renting and it was temporary and he could live with it. But he went with the 1 BR. So each year his rent has gone up about $300 – 400 and now he’s paying around $4,000/month in rent.
However if you buy something you can afford, your payments are going to go down over time.
“So what’s a buyer in 2006 to do?”
Good question. This too will vary depending on how underwater they are (presumably very much). A friend told me they sold their home, used a credit card to shore up the difference between sales price and mortgage (huge), and used their savings to buy a cheaper home. YMMV.
“Do you talk to a used car salesman to figure out the service rate of a 2004 escort?”
Hahaha, that was a trick question
Not to start an econ conversation, but:
“When adding in all of the money owed to cover future liabilities in entitlement programs the US is actually in worse financial shape than Greece and other debt-laden European countries, Pimco’s Bill Gross told CNBC Monday.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43378973
Just out of curiosity, has there ever been in the 45 months this blog lists in its archive a single property featured about which all of the regular commenters had positive evaluations?
““Do you talk to a used car salesman to figure out the service rate of a 2004 escort?”
Hahaha, that was a trick question”
Haha…nice. Should’ve read that a second time.
65 months of inventory? Now is a TERRIBLE time to buy – even with a 5-7 year time frame.
Buy at your own risk because doing so will be perilous to your financial health.
I think its pretty obvious by most to most folks who follow the market that prices are going to drop another 15/20 or even 25pc in this leg down. Only those with severely malfunctioning and misfiring neurons would posit otherwise.
I believe it. The upper middle class should just say goodbye to the US for a few years and move abroad if they can. What incentive is there to stay in the US with the rapidly declining standard of living compared to other countries?
“I think its pretty obvious by most to most folks who follow the market that prices are going to drop another 15/20 or even 25pc in this leg down.”
From what level? From todays SELLING prices? Or from todays listed prices?
I think that on an inflation adjusted basis, we are still 10-15% above where we will be one year from now. This will be some more pain, but that is what the market needs to do to get back to normal.
“I think that on an inflation adjusted basis, we are still 10-15% above where we will be one year from now.”
I agree. However, I think that 10% will be re-gained within a few years of the bottom. So, I think 2014/15 prices will be the same as 2011. With a dip in between.
“From what level? From todays SELLING prices? Or from todays listed prices?”
chukdotcom hit the nail on the head. Use this market to create your own opportunities.
2014 selling prices WILL be lower than 2011 prices.
The market priced it in 😉
HD – you are wrong for many reasons – but one of the main reasons is that the condos/units that are dragging prices down are 1/1 and 2/2s – these will only go down to the level that investors can rent them out for 5-6% (which is where they are near). At that point, these will disappear. Larger, more expensive units will not only be bought by investors but also by families, couples, etc.
milkster.. I’m on the buy at rent vs own parity team, but problem with clios example is rents rose without a corresponding increase in prices. That’s tough.
What surprises me is no one sees a scenario where rents fall. Say an apartment goes 50 percent of 2006 prices. That new owner does well at a much lower rent. There is an argument for the possibility.
As for HD and G, both complete tools, only made to look good in comparison to Clios spectacular wrongness. ‘last chance to buy, panties in a bunch, all cash offers’
and miu.. This product goes up 90percent of the time, so it’s more like predicting no rain. For the record i’m not a big fan of predictions. This one was a blinking neon sign though.
“This one was a blinking neon sign though.”
For about 4 years. That was the biggest part of the problem.
Still, wouldn’t have been nearly as big if either the feds had properly regulated or cut off the GSEs in 03/04 as they should have.
Real estate prices should track the incomes of prospective buyers too. As incomes aren’t going up, prices won’t either, either adjusted for inflation or not. You need income growth to get prices to increase.
“You need income growth to get prices to increase.”
I’m not 100% sure if that is true. It certainly isn’t in other areas (energy, commodities, etc).
dave m… Best idea ever. The country is too polarized as well.
As for unrealized liabilities.. At least they are unrealized. Funny thing is try to realize them, in current projected us dollars, you won’t even be close to the true bill. It will look like a f’n whirlpool… Then you’ll be trying to figure out how that 400k purchase looks converted to your new currency.
This is even more entertaining than the coliseum.
I’m not talking short-term speculation – I meant income growth fuels long-term price appreciation. Where else would it come from? You won’t get it from lower interest rates, as they can’t go much lower year after year.
“Then you’ll be trying to figure out how that 400k purchase looks converted to your new currency. ”
The trick will be how they revalue the debt, especially that held in sec’tized structures.
they were way too busy removing states rights to oversite in order to regulate, or is that regulating. I’m so confused. My hero, the guy who bought in 06, nothin down,non recourse state. So what if he didn’t win, he still made the best bet. He is my hero.
“What surprises me is no one sees a scenario where rents fall. Say an apartment goes 50 percent of 2006 prices. That new owner does well at a much lower rent. There is an argument for the possibility.”
Kind of funny, ze, that you borrow one of my longstanding arguments as if it’s yours alone, then call me a tool in the very next paragraph.
How can the masses pay the mortgage when prices go up? The last time we tried that experiment it failed miserably. We as a country need cheap housing, cheap mortgages and cheap rent and we are maybe halfway there yet.
If there’s no income growth, aren’t the current buyers just speculators? Kind of a horrible market to speculate in, as the transaction costs are absurd, and the asset is so illiquid.
“We as a country need”
Why is that?
g… You know i am kidding about that, i have noticed a sensitive side, so just checking.
As for it being a running narrative for you. I did not know this. Short term memory makes everything new for me every day…
Another area of rising prices with no income growth:
http://money.cnn.com/2011/06/13/news/economy/college_tuition_middle_class/index.htm?hpt=hp_t2
“When adding in all of the money owed to cover future liabilities in entitlement programs the US is actually in worse financial shape than Greece and other debt-laden European countries, Pimco’s Bill Gross told CNBC Monday.”
I didn’t see any discussion in article of wehther this is on a relative basis (e.g. gdp). Are we really worse off than the worst of the worst in EU?
Not to the debt=income crowd, chuk.
Chuk – that is the next bubble to burst, once the government is no longer able to support it the way it does today.
This just isn’t sustainable to have no income growth and rising prices. It works in the short-run, but eventually there will be a revolt.
big difference is housing has with a few rare and brief exceptions been tied to affordability… It can only go so far. Individual commodities have never been tied strictly to incomes and in times of scarcity, there really is no constraints.
It’s just interesting to see how prices work. You have incomes which are flat to down. There is only so much of the household income “pie” to go around. Increases in costs in one area (college) have to take away from spending in other areas (savings? housing?). Or result in an increase in debt. Seems to me that overall household debt is being decreased, so where does the money come from? Shouldn’t the supply/demand equation be at work here, forcing college prices lower, just like housing? Other than housing, I’m hard pressed to come up with a single category of expenses that has gone down in the last 5 years.
College grads are repaying student loans instead of commitimg to mortgages. Haven’t you noticed? Just who exactly did the boomers think they were going to sell to?
“As for it being a running narrative for you. I did not know this. Short term memory makes everything new for me every day…”
It has been, mainly in subtext and rhetorical questions, so easier to forget.
“Individual commodities have never been tied strictly to incomes and in times of scarcity, there really is no constraints.”
True, individually, they do not, but taken together, they do. People can’t afford to spend 1k a month on gas, without a corresponding decrease in some other area of spending.
“Shouldn’t the supply/demand equation be at work here, forcing college prices lower”
Haven’t we had enough discussions here–nevermind other coverage–implicitly about the difficulty of getting into college X? Seems that the demand for any school in the top half of the post-secondary food chain is sufficient to keep the somewhat limited supply in high demand.
“We as a country need cheap housing, cheap mortgages and cheap rent and we are maybe halfway there yet.”
I was in Washington Heights yesterday – a rough around the edges to tough part of upper Manhattan. I stopped at a new trendy cafe. I was surprised the prices were higher than those of anything comparable in Midtown or Downtown. A young, well-dressed woman walked in and paid for lunch for her and her friend with an EBT card. I couldn’t believe what I was seeing. I’ll bet your taxes finance her whole lifestyle, rent included.
The boomers screwed themselves. They had the benefits of high inflation for much of their lives and a fantastic 3 decades of growth in the US from 1975-2005. The only way many of their children will do well is by moving abroad. The boomers want to pay themselves well, but purposely keep salaries down for the younger workers (the serfs).
These same boomers were often really liberal in the 1960’s, who did well in the world, now are republicans, saying how they worked hard and therefore shouldn’t be paying as much in taxes. These same people bought their houses in Lincoln Park for $225k, which these days would cost $2M. Awesome system.
“College grads are repaying student loans instead of commitimg to mortgages. Haven’t you noticed?”
That’s all fine and dandy, but many of them are still renting. Where are they getting THAT money from? Average rent prices aren’t that much different than average mortgage prices now. So, it’s not like renting frees up any of their cash. Whether your rent is $1200 a month, or your mortgage payment is $1200 a month, you still need to come up with $1200 a month. Where the hell is it coming from when all the other expenses are going through the roof?
“Haven’t we had enough discussions here–nevermind other coverage–implicitly about the difficulty of getting into college X? ”
But even shitty colleges are expensive. Forget about the top tier schools. Who is going to continue to pay 35k to go to a diploma mill? Ivy’s will always get their premiums. But what about the other 99% of schools?
Mark my words: the great student loan bailout of 2024.
“But even shitty colleges are expensive.”
True. That might stop.
“Forget about the top tier schools.”
I intentionally noted the top half overall. If you think that *everyone* can just go to Directional State School, as a full-time, four-year student, I don’t think you know many 16-20 year olds. They don’t all just get in, and there’s someone else happy to take the seat, if it’s too expensive.
“Mark my words: the great student loan bailout of 2024.”
That’s known as “5 years of low double digit inflation” combined with wages more or less keeping pace in nominal dollars. $1000/month looks a lot smaller if median wages for the college-educated set are $110k rather than $60k.
talking about rents going up, i met a new neighbor yesterday. she told me she is renting a pre-foreclosure unit from the association and she might buy it when it comes on the market in a year or two. she told me she was renting another 2/2 in the building but this one was priced cheaper so she switched. i am not sure rents will go up on chicago at least in very near future which requires the home prices to decline further to make a own vs rent parity.
“i am not sure rents will go up on chicago at least in very near future”
Quoted to see if clio will debunk this with normal vitriol, or if he’ll be nicer to you.
“I intentionally noted the top half overall.”
I must admit I glossed over the word half. But still, it seems to me that something has to give. How long will people pay 150k to be in the bottom of the top half, and come out with no job? I can see top 10-20% of schools commanding a premium. Beyond that, I’m not sure why the rest of the schools even exist. Learn a trade, invest your 150k and you will be way ahead of the game.
It may be more that the downpayment becomes an impossible task, they are skating on rent and loans and expenses. No chance to save…
“That’s all fine and dandy, but many of them are still renting. Where are they getting THAT money from?”
college prices go up because it’s all financed. Everything else goes up maybe because pressures are global.
“college prices go up because it’s all financed.”
And so is housing. Which is my point. One is going way up with flat incomes, and one is going way down with flat incomes. Something has to give.
“It may be more that the downpayment becomes an impossible task”
But even that can only run you 3.5%. The reality is, renting isn’t all that much different than buying right now financially. And if people can’t afford to buy, how can they afford to rent? Which goes to G’s argument. Rents provide somewhat of a base for housing prices, but if those start to fall to, then there goes your bottom. If you have xx per month to spend, you can only rob peter to pay paul so much. Something has to give.
Chuk you assumption that renting and owning are at parity is incorrect that is why you cannot figure it out. College grads have roommates to split the 1200 a month rent whereas they cannot do that with a mortgage.
“Beyond that, I’m not sure why the rest of the schools even exist”
Many of them (I’m talking Directional State Schools) started out with narrower missions–teachers, nurses, agriculture, whatever; trade schools for trades that require some book learnin’–and later morphed into “full service” universities. Probably would serve everyone well to get some of the schools to re-focus on core “trades” for the modern world.
“College grads have roommates to split the 1200 a month rent whereas they cannot do that with a mortgage.”
You’ve seen mortgages that prevent renting a room to someone?
“Chuk you assumption that renting and owning are at parity is incorrect that is why you cannot figure it out.”
No it’s not incorrect. Maybe not in all cases, but there are plenty of properties on the market now that are at or below rent parity.
“College grads have roommates to split the 1200 a month rent whereas they cannot do that with a mortgage.”
Well, in getting approved for the mortgage you can’t, but you can certainly defray your mortgage cost by charging your roommates rent. 1200-600 is still only 600.
fair point – and I like the logic allowing that people have to live somewhere. Recent grads I know are not really willing to buy the studio or one bed which exponentially increases the cost to buy for them because they are in the 2-3 bed category. They can rent the studio or get roomates to rent just fine. In the olden days it was easier to secure a mort then bring in the roomates to cover.
But you need to add closing costs to that 3.5% too, prepaids etc. It adds up quickly.
Renting out rooms to boarders is sooooo great recession.
Sure its possible. But not too likely. My law clerk is 25, a big 10 grad and he splits his 1200 a month rent three ways. He’s not about to take on a mortgage and rent out the rooms.
The point is that with a smaller pie and increased expenses, something has to give, and in many cases, shared living reduces housing expenses by half or 2/3rd.
Also look at student loan deferment and forebearance and default numbers. You will find them shocking at how many people don’t pay student loans, and with the deferments and forbearances (and the graduated neg am payment plans for new grads) student loans have become a disaster.
“He’s not about to take on a mortgage and rent out the rooms. ”
But if he did, he’d be ahead of his two roomies in a decade, even in a world of flat or slightly falling rents.
Yeah but he would be 35 and still living like he’s in college.
It’s interesting – at my company, around 1/2 of the recent grads I work with (2009 and 2010 grads) still live at home with their parents. The main reason is the high student loan payments they have to make. Their debt loads are double what they would have been 7-8 years ago, and also at higher interest rates (consolidated at 6% instesd of 2.5%). The remaining 1/2 of recent grads all have multiple roommates and are paying $600-700 at most. They have no intention to pay more than that. Is there a property that makes sense for them to buy on a $50K income that is at rent/buy parity but not more than $700 per month? This is not isolated to my company in Chicago, and will be a major problem for landlords and also the entry-level condo market.
“Yeah but he would be 35 and still living like he’s in college.”
Isn’t that about the most he can hope for in your neo-dickensian view of the world? He might as well make hte best of it.
Re college costs, there’s a line of thought that the rise has been driven in significant part by the greater costs of services relative to goods (which benefit more from technological progress than services generally, esp education services they way they have traditionally been provided). That’s not to say that demand side factors are not relevant. If enough pressure, would force cost cutting of education services (which affects quality).
Also, at the risk of incurring Sabrina’s ire, for some Ivys and other top schools, I think average price paid has probably not increased more than inflation (probably less), as greater financial aid has been given out.
“Is there a property that makes sense for them to buy on a $50K income
that is at rent/buy parity but not more than $700 per month?”
Well, there are some 2/2’s they could buy for around 130k that would rent for around $1400, and charge $700 per month in rent for the other bedroom. If you can write off the taxes/int and back out the principle payment, the buyer would be around $700 per month “cost” as well.
“Also, at the risk of incurring Sabrina’s ire, for some Ivys and other top schools, I think average price paid has probably not increased more than inflation (probably less), as greater financial aid has been given out.”
Yeah, the top schools aren’t that bad. And some of them can often be cheaper than the lesser schools. It’s the shitty schools where people think that a “college degree” is their ticket to success. Like going to a 3rd tier law school and finishing in the bottom of your class. All the expenses, and none of the rewards.
“The boomers screwed themselves. They had the benefits of high inflation for much of their lives and a fantastic 3 decades of growth in the US from 1975-2005. The only way many of their children will do well is by moving abroad. The boomers want to pay themselves well, but purposely keep salaries down for the younger workers (the serfs).
These same boomers were often really liberal in the 1960’s, who did well in the world, now are republicans, saying how they worked hard and therefore shouldn’t be paying as much in taxes. These same people bought their houses in Lincoln Park for $225k, which these days would cost $2M. Awesome system.”
Also look at the 10 or 30yr US treasuries from 1981 to present. You see a clear downward trend with a regression line that fits quite well.
Understanding that as interest rates approach zero it allows debtors to take on ever more exponential amounts of amortizing debt, you can see the game was rigged to benefit boomers. Younger generations got snookered.
I had a friend that bought a place and rented to people to get the leg up that you’re talking about (having someone else pay your mortgage). After a couple years, the people he knew that were renting were getting married and moving out or just wanted to get their own places. Now he’s forced to rent to random craigslist people, which is fine if your renting out the whole unit, but less ideal if you’re renting only a room and have to live with the randoms. Now he’s basically enduring a constantly changing stream of roommates because he can’t afford the mortgage on his own (because of his high student loan debt).
Bob,
As interest rates rise, this generation of buyers will clearly be known as the new “lost generation”, because there will be so few that can afford it. This could paralyze the economy of the US in the future, so much that when the government lowers their support for student loans, colleges will be forced to lower prices.
Who wants to be roommates with a random on craigslist? horrible situation and story. This is exactly the problem with buying more than one can afford.
Hi Kevin –
Sorry to hear about your friend’s predicament, but I am curious:
– When did he buy?
– What was the purchase price?
– What was his downpayment?
– What is his interest rate?
– Was it a house or condo?
– Are there any assessments?
– What are the taxes?
– How many rooms does he rent out and for how much each?
– Which city – Chicago? And which neighborhood?
This situation can work out great, but I would never advocate someone taking out too much debt and buying without a significant downpayment. In New York, DC and parts of Chicago this scenario could work well without a revolving door of sketchy short-term roommates.
Looking at the cost of college through the lens of tuition increases is the tail wagging the dog. College tuition is a function of the ability of 18 to 25 year olds to borrow large sums of money. The more students can borrow, the higher the price of tuition.
Now that the government is the direct lender (through something called the Direct Loan program) the ability of students to borrow the entire cost of college is complete!
Obama is no friends to students either. He also felt the sting of student loans but he was able to pay them off and he feels that all students should do the same. He however doesn’t mention that it took a million dollar book deal after a senatorial run to finally pay Aunt Sallie off.
Milkster–
I can answer some of your questions but not all.
– When did he buy? fall of 2006
– What was the purchase price? not sure, but I think high 300s, maybe around 380
– What was his downpayment? I’m not sure what his downpayment was, but I know he saved for two years after college so I’d guess around $30k or so (he had two jobs)
– What is his interest rate? Not sure what his interest rate was at the time, but he refinanced a couple months ago (which suggests to me that his downpayment was high enough where he isn’t underwater yet)
– Was it a house or condo? Condo
– Are there any assessments? Yes, but I think they’re relatively low. He’s in a 8 unit building, no elevator/doorman.
– What are the taxes? Not sure.
– How many rooms does he rent out and for how much each? It’s a 3/2, and he usually rents out two of the rooms for around $700 each but he includes all utilities in the $700 (heat, electricity, cable)
– Which city – Chicago? And which neighborhood? Humboldt Park
“- When did he buy? fall of 2006”
Say no more…
Also as more states default or get close to that they decrease their aid to state schools and schools need to raise the tuition or admit more out of state or foreign students to make ends meet. Lack of state aid means also the colleges cannot renovate and bring their buildings to 21st century and hence pay high heating cooling fees (think vintage assessment issues at larger scale). More over as government is pretty much broke and wastes budget on useless wars instead of education, schools have no choice to raise tuition. Overhead from grants that faculty bring in makes a large part of income of top tear research schools and those funds have been dwindling for a while now.
“College tuition is a function of the ability of 18 to 25 year olds to borrow large sums of money. The more students can borrow, the higher the price of tuition.”
And the same can be said about the housing bubble. So, is the college bubble going to burst as well? Are tuition prices headed back to 1996 levels?
This is a very skewed site and doesn’t reflect reality. The reality is that there are a LOT of single young people out there that make good money (50-90k). While they may not be able to afford (or want) to buy right now, they ARE renting in the nicer areas. 60610, 60611, 60614, 60657, ok and 60654 (for you, sonies) are highly desirable areas and rents are at a premium. There are enough people in this income range willing to pay a premium to live in these zip codes. This is why you are unlikely to get a deal on a condo/house in these areas (because rental parity is skewed). This goes back to the fundamentals of pricing which, obviously is too complicated and too painful for many of you to understand (or WANT to understand)
Hi again, Kevin –
Ouch. I feel bad for your friend. Ugh. This is so high for a condo in Humboldt.
So if we assume he has a mortgage of 350K, he was probably paying a 6% interest rate before he refinanced, so say his costs were approximately:
– $2,100/mo mortgage
– $300/mo assessments
– $200/mo taxes
– $40/mo insurance
So say he’s paying about $2,640/mo not including utilities? This was not a good scenario in which to buy especially with only 10% down and in a rough neighborhood too. You want to be able to pay for everything yourself if you have to. You shouldn’t be dependent on the room-mates, they should just speed up paying off the mortgage.
Yeah, that guy in Humboldt is screwed. If he wants out, he should just give it back to the bank. Sounds awful. He’s be lucky renting it for $2,640 in most nicer areas of the city, and that would be for the whole unit.
bob, no you d’int.
Pick 1981. C’mon. Try 1950 forward and amazingly your story looks different.
And chuk.. Let me restate, ‘for which financing is *still* easily available.’
bob.. I just realized your problem. Someone set you up with a Briebart terminal instead of a Bloomberg terminal. Of course all your charts and news have your default set to disaster.
chuk:
Prices for college tuition will drop, but, now that the government is in the business of financing college (and is far and away the largest lender including private loans) the party will continue on for longer than any of us can imagine. Which is too bad because it’s ensnaring future generations of students. There are more student loans outstanding than credit card debt right now and it’s only going to get worse, much worse, and just when you think it cannot get any worse, it will.
And at some point in the future, which I half-sarcastically joked at 2024, the bubble will burst, and the party will end, and all that will remain are fewer colleges with fewer students paying lower tuition with millions and millions of alums who are trillions of dollars in debt.
“the party will continue on for longer than any of us can imagine. ”
Well, let’s hope it’s not longer than 10 years. My first one going to college then (in theory).
“chuk:
Prices for college tuition will drop, but, now that the government is in the business of financing college”
Prices for college tuition will most certainly not drop. Increased tuition means the colleges can engage in empire building and also dole out financial rewards to those they deem fit (ie: more power to the colleges, they like this).
Case in point is my undergrad. Perfectly decent school which used to have very, very affordable tuition for in-state residents and affordable tuition for out of state residents. About a decade ago they had a new president who wanted to transform it into a “top-20” research school and used that as the justification for double digit tuition increases over a number of years.
Reality was the school saw they were leaving money on the table vs. their competitors so they jacked up tuition. Nothing in my school’s past suggested it should be a top-20 research university in any case. But I’d imagine most colleges are following this route so they can justify their empire building.
Instead institutions of higher learning will splinter along whether they are traditional diploma mills vs. newer ones/not AACSB accredited. Already battle lines have been drawn and accredited schools are lobbying to tighten the screws on non-accredited ones.
Traditional colleges don’t have to drop tuition and won’t because even these days the common anecdote is more education = higher remuneration. I always see people on TV stating things like college debt is good and I don’t see popular opinion changing quickly on this.
And just imagine if only half of the 300+ colleges out there want to be a top-20. It’s a race to the top for empire building.
“even these days the common anecdote is more education = higher remuneration. I always see people on TV stating things like college debt is good and I don’t see popular opinion changing quickly on this.”
But it is such bubble mentality. Are humans really THAT stupid? Man, if we were goldfish, we’d all be floating on the top of the tank after eating ourselves to death.
‘after eating ourselves to death’
getting close, if I remember Chicago.
“Are humans really THAT stupid?”
Recently talked with someone who worked in the industry and they were sure we’re at a bottom now. This person had no data to support their opinion but it was their “gut”.
Most Americans cannot even comprehend that government providing the financing backstop for certain goods raises the equilibrium price of said goods. Yes, they are that stupid.
but yet at the same time people are working on digitalizing thought patterns… Suggests a wide range.
“but yet at the same time people are working on digitalizing thought patterns… Suggests a wide range.”
Yes but an idiot’s vote counts as much as a genius’s. And guess which category there are more of? 😀
Too bad I missed most of the debate on college. How do you explain costs that go up faster than overall inflation? There has to be an inefficiency at work there. I’d like to study the income statements. I know my college has a lot more buildings today then they did when I went there and essentially the same number of students. And maybe they hire a lot more expensive professors who don’t teach any better.
This can not continue because if it did colleges would eventually consume the entire US economy. Eventually alternative models will prevail. Personally I think the traditional college model is outdated. Today it is more important to learn how to learn than it is to learn specific material – unless you are going into a field that requires specific knowledge like computer science or medicine.
Why don’t we just remove all government support from higher education and the housing market? Maybe phase it out over 5 years. In 30 years, we will all be better off for it. Universities have no incentives to maximize efficiency in any way.
“This can not continue because if it did colleges would eventually consume the entire US economy”
Course not. Before the internet bubble popped, Cisco’s growth–supposedly sustainable–would have had it being the entire global economy by now.
Why does no one pick on Health Care cost growth? It’s much closer to eating us all alive than education spending, but that’s all anyone complains about.
“Universities have no incentives to maximize efficiency in any way.”
**Universities** shouldn’t be maximizing efficiencies, as maximized efficiencies aren’t particularly compatible with maximized creativity. Any one individually “maximizing efficiency” would be a very weak competitor for some time.
But the post-secondary system as a whole, sure.
or even better military cost.
“Why does no one pick on Health Care cost growth?”
Healthcare: radiologists makes 350k or more per year.loansWhat if they made 100k but had no student loans?
The housing market, health care, and education all have on thing in common – easy financing.
College costs are way out of line because it is easy to get a loan to go to any bottom tier school even if the prospects of being able to pay back the associated debt is next to impossible. There is no incentive for universities to lower costs. I advocated that student loans should be underwritten based on potential of said school and student. Borrow $100k to go to Harvard ? No problem. Borrow $100k to go to University of Phoenix with a degree in geography? Out of your freaking mind. Denied. Max student loan for u of Phoenix, $10k.
Health care costs are out of wack because consumers really don’t know the true costs because of our insurance system. Healthcare costs would go down if insurance were decoupled from employers and you had to buy it like car insurance. There is no incentive to control costs. You should be able to buy health insurance across state lines and shop for plans like any other insurance.
Well said Russ.
And then there is this issue:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8cD2mv8-_xA
I can’t tell you many of my friends are married to women with huge college debt, and have left their careers for good to become stay at home moms. There is certainly nothing wrong with that choice, but it makes you wonder if the 100k+ in debt was worth it. Then again, if they didn’t take on that debt to go to that school, they may never have met a husband that made enough so that they could stay home. Quite the catch-22.
In past two decades most colleges and university significantly increased capital and annual spending:
Building spree: New luxury dorms! New high-end health club sports facility! New student union with multiple dining areas and expanded menu choices! New lab buildings!
Significantly larger administrative staffing: Not necessarily increase in teaching staff, but many more deans, directors, asst directors, managers, staff, etc.
Significantly higher salaries for upper-management administration and for sports team coaches: Spending on college sports is outrageous; many football and basketball coaches match presidents’ salaries.
Curiously, tenured faculty percentage has reduced, and percentage of adjunct (part-time non-tenured “gypsy” teachers paid by class) professors have increased significantly. I’m spending a lot of time researching higher-education trends.
” Spending on college sports is outrageous; many football and basketball coaches match presidents’ salaries.”
But at least the sports are often bringing in big money with TV deals, etc.
“many football and basketball coaches match presidents’ salaries”
HAHAHAHAHA! HA!! Funny stuff.
Which college president is making $4mm+, like the disgraced Tressel was? And he’s not even *close* to the best paid coach.
“But at least the sports are often bringing in big money with TV deals, etc.”
At the schools it works out for, it basically pays for the entire athletic program, with some facilities dividends for general student use. For those (most) that it does not work out for, well …
“Significantly larger administrative staffing: Not necessarily increase in teaching staff, but many more deans, directors, asst directors, managers, staff, etc.”
so true!
“many football and basketball coaches match presidents’ salaries”
Not true at all by a long shot! Do you know that you can see the salaries of public school faculty. Please take a look and you’d see at least you are one zero off.
“or even better military cost.
“Why does no one pick on Health Care cost growth?””
You are too stupid to turn this political. We are talking about consumer consumption problems.
“We are talking about consumer consumption problems.”
Health care isn’t a consumer consumption problem?
Taxes aren’t a consumer consumption problem?
Is that *really* your point?
Really?
Then how do you get to the point where you are calling anyone else names?
“This is why you are unlikely to get a deal on a condo/house in these areas (because rental parity is skewed).”
Clio- What’s a deal?
I’ve asked you this before but you never answer. Is it $50k under what someone paid for the property before? Is it paying less than the 2005 price? Is it paying less than the 2001 price? Is it paying the 1998 price?
You can get all of these things in the prime zip codes.
So what does a “deal” mean?
anon don’t worry. Bob needs to call someone stupid once in a while to make him feel good about himself : )
anon
it sounds like Bill Gross is channeling Lawrence Kotlikoff and/or James Grant and/or a dozen others. at any rate BG put me in mind of LK’s usual “rap” which one can read here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-11/u-s-is-bankrupt-and-we-don-t-even-know-commentary-by-laurence-kotlikoff.html
@ Chuck, nice video, yet very sad. Hope the fairy tale lasts for these women and they don’t one day wake up seeing they are married to someone they don’t love and never did any thing with their life either.
have y’all already chatted about Robert Shiller’s latest musings?
“Robert Shiller, the economist who co-founded the S&P/Case-Shiller index of U.S. home prices, said a further decline in property values of 10 percent to 25 percent in the next five years ‘wouldn’t surprise me at all.’ ”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-09/shiller-says-u-s-home-price-declines-of-10-to-25-wouldn-t-surprise-me-.html
it wouldn’t surprise me either, given my guess of how the D-F legislation will change the definition of a qualified-residential mortgage (QRM). Credit constriction is bad news for leveraged asset-buyers.
450k below the ’02 price or is there an error somewhere?
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/514-W-Webster-Ave-60614/home/13349567
Somebody added a ‘1’ that didn’t belong there:
Executed Recorded Document Type Amount
06/07/2002 06/21/2002 WARRANTY DEED $812,500.00
I think some rich dude lives there.
Then again, who knows
Executed Recorded Document Type Amount
11/13/1997 11/17/1997 WARRANTY DEED $1,215,000.00
Perhaps the place on Webster is priced in contemplation of the impending Webster Square construction (the full extent of which continues to be delayed), which will make for a couple of years of construction zone living. But after that, an already awesome house, in an already awesome neighborhood, will be situation in an even better neighborhood (i.e., its neighbors will no longer be an increasingly shabby hospital campus). I wish it were within the realm of the possible for me right now.
“medelete on June 13th, 2011 at 4:39 pm
Healthcare: radiologists makes 350k or more per year.loansWhat if they made 100k but had no student loans?”
Moron – the real cost of healthcare is NOT doctor’s salaries – that doesn’t add hardly anything to the costs – it is the hospital/ancillary staff/medication/drug company/technical costs that are skyrocketing. Seriously, look at your hospital/insurance bills – how much does the lab/hospital get and how much does the physician get? Seriously, you are so goddamn stupid that if you can’t understand this simple concept, there is no wonder you are a poor attorney who cant afford to buy a house.
More importantly, it looks like the housing market is picking up:
http://www.tmz.com/2011/06/13/candy-spelling-sells-mansion-holmby-hills-petra-ecclestone-bernie-formula-one-management-escrow/
Why is everyone shocked that houses in LP are selling for $200k, $300k or $400k below prices of a decade ago?
I could do posts every single day- all three of the posts- on LP and cover properties that are all selling way less than the last time they sold.
To me, Lincoln Park is one of the weakests neighborhoods (not the strongest.) Dare I say this- but Ukranian Village and even Logan Square seems to be holding up better right now than Lincoln Park.
Heck, you can get a 2/2 in LP for $340k or a 2/2 in Ukranian Village for the same price. The Ukranian Village unit is selling. The LP unit is not.
It’s amazing to me.
clio – I see reimbursement rates ALL THE TIME. The labs get next to nothing. $10 bucks for bloodwork yet they bill $150 for it. The hospitals don’t get that much either. They bill $3,500 for a hospital ER visit and they receive $890. I had a case where the client underwent open reduction internal fixation on a femoral head, the hospital stay was 3 nights and cost $65,000. Medicaid paid the northside hospital $7,000 for the entire stay. Yet that same radiologist probably made $350,000 to look at charts all day, similar to what you do. How about we chop your salary in half? What do you think my ENT guy makes? They bill my insurance company $250 a visit and the insurance company pays $80. He spends 2 minutes with me after making me wait an hour in the waiting room. I though medicine was about helping people but it’s turned into assembly lines meant to minimize the amount of time spent with the patient and maximize the number of patients that a doctor can meet with in a 10 hour workday, thereby maximizing doctor salaries. Salaries are a large part of the cost structure of running any medical office or facility (except for tech intensive ICU’s, NICU’s etc with lots of equipment and medication).
“Is that *really* your point?
Really?”
Yes. She tried to obfuscate the issue of why real estate and higher education is so expensive and growing faster than the rate of inflation.
Hint: healthcare is also prone to similar price inflation as consumers don’t pay a significant out of pocket cost, only the co-pay.
It’s like miumiu reads an op-ed in the NYT and believes the false dichotomy that because the markets for higher education and real estate are out of wack there must also be something done in other areas favored by the other party (ie: defense spending).
But it’s entirely outside the scope of our discussion here. It’s like she’s a partisan parrot.
HINT: take a look at the average person’s credit report and you’ll see that a surprising amount of people don’t pay the co-pays. Sure they’ll pay the $20 up front for a visit but when the bill comes in the mail they’re more likely to ignore it than pay it.
“Hint: healthcare is also prone to similar price inflation as consumers don’t pay a significant out of pocket cost, only the co-pay.”
“clio – I see reimbursement rates ALL THE TIME. The labs get next to nothing. $10 bucks for bloodwork yet they bill $150 for it. The hospitals don’t get that much either. They bill $3,500 for a hospital ER visit and they receive $890. I had a case where the client underwent open reduction internal fixation on a femoral head, the hospital stay was 3 nights and cost $65,000. Medicaid paid the northside hospital $7,000 for the entire stay. Yet that same radiologist probably made $350,000 to look at charts all day, similar to what you do. How about we chop your salary in half? What do you think my ENT guy makes? They bill my insurance company $250 a visit and the insurance company pays $80. He spends 2 minutes with me after making me wait an hour in the waiting room. I though medicine was about helping people but it’s turned into assembly lines meant to minimize the amount of time spent with the patient and maximize the number of patients that a doctor can meet with in a 10 hour workday, thereby maximizing doctor salaries. Salaries are a large part of the cost structure of running any medical office or facility (except for tech intensive ICU’s, NICU’s etc with lots of equipment and medication).”
this is an idiotic post. the radiologist doesn’t look at slides all day – he diagnoses your disease, be it pancreatic cancer or a broken hip. Without him, the hospital is worthless. the same applies to all other doctors. You don’t like healthcare? feel free to move to canada and deal with their system. Do you think doctors get paid what they bill? what do you think medicare/medicaid pay your ENT or ortho doc of what he bills? what do you think they pay me for a transluminal injection in your spine compared to what we bill? are you freaking kidding me? It’s laughable that a lawyer is lecturing a physician on how he is overpaid. Please. physician salaries are a FRACTION of the problem in healthcare – doctors are at most fairly compensated for the amount of time, hard work, and money they invest to save your life – and at the end of the day we still deal with idiots who think a radiologist sits in a room and looks at slides for 350 grand a year. You want your ENT doc to spend more than a few minutes with you but you’re paying him 80 dollars, and he has to cover the overhead of his office, utensils and equipment, and office staff? give me a freaking break.
“Healthcare: radiologists makes 350k or more per year.loansWhat if they made 100k but had no student loans”‘
Yeah. good look recruiting doctors. You want a competent radiologist? that’s nearly 14 years of training after high school. Medical school alone costs nearly 250 grand with living expenses included ( on the conservative side ). Add college and residency training costs to that – who the F is going to subsidize healthcare in this country? 100k / year. Right. We should make less than your walgreens pharmacist.
Bob, go check the stats about the amount of funding public schools used to receive from the state vs what they get now. They have to raise tuition to make ends meet.
I agree that the schools are often run inefficiently, there are way too many dean, assistant dean, associate dean,…bs programs of study that waste the budget but the fact remains that state government being broke is making these schools hurt. Now federal government being broke hurts them through research dollars flowing in. This is one source of tuition increase. Where do you get it that I am obfuscating anything?
For your information I am an independent. I thought one has to belong to a party to be partisan : )
As why Elite schools are not raising tuitions as much: they have huge endowments and alumni donations that makes a big difference and they get big research grants even in worst of times. DoD study groups, NSF panels, NIH panel, etc all are biased toward the name brand so when funding gets tight these schools still fare much better than others.
“Bob, go check the stats about the amount of funding public schools used to receive from the state vs what they get now. They have to raise tuition to make ends meet.”
No miumiu. My alma mater never had financial problems ten years ago. They chose to raise tuition, as all schools did, because they could.
“but the fact remains that state government being broke is making these schools hurt. ”
Not all state governments are broke and these tuition increases well beyond general inflation has been going on for at least ten years now. Far longer than states ran into financial difficulty. “The state is broke” is just the latest in a long line of rationalizations these institutions use to try to keep public anger at bay regarding what they are doing.
Riz, while I get your argument, I’d just like to throw out that while you think $350k is perfectly reasonable for you to make because Walgreens pharmacists make $100k and don’t save lives, then why is it ok that teachers only make $50k a year? They are the ones that ensure that doctors can become doctors and impart the knowledge upon our children. I think arguing over salaries is pointless. Who wants to live in Chicago without garbage workers, but we don’t pay them $200k….
Riz, what are the factors that raise the health care costs so much in this country then?
A friend of mine had a surgery (breast cancer), her surgery cost was around 60K, same surgery in Italy which by WHO has better health care than US is around 3K (euros). Something is really off here for such a big price difference.
“Riz, while I get your argument, I’d just like to throw out that while you think $350k is perfectly reasonable for you to make because Walgreens pharmacists make $100k and don’t save lives, then why is it ok that teachers only make $50k a year? They are the ones that ensure that doctors can become doctors and impart the knowledge upon our children. I think arguing over salaries is pointless. Who wants to live in Chicago without garbage workers, but we don’t pay them $200k….”
We live in a country that often pays out salaries based on quality/time spent on education and ability to generate income. Pharmacists actually do save lives – you’d be surprised how many medication errors they catch. Second, i’m all for teachers making a bit more money but what can you expect with that degree? it’s pretty rare to make more than 50k in anything with just a college degree nowadays. I assure you phD’s or even Master’s graduates teaching at the college or even high school levels are not earning 50k. Again, garbage man salary is often relative to level of education. Why do some lawyers make 50 grand out of college while some make 150? because one went to Depaul law school and another went to Yale. It’s all relative ; but you are absolutely right. we can’t sit here and allocate who should make what ; we let the market do that.
What about private school tuition miumiu? How do they rationalize increasing tuition in excess of inflation for the past fifteen years?
It’s due to the government backstopping the financing for student loans. Not sure why this concept is so difficult for so many to grasp.
“Riz, what are the factors that raise the health care costs so much in this country then?
A friend of mine had a surgery (breast cancer), her surgery cost was around 60K, same surgery in Italy which by WHO has better health care than US is around 3K (euros). Something is really off here for such a big price difference.”
well i assure you the physician didnt make much more than 500-700 bucks for that surgery. That is the MOST. it cost that much because you live in a country where we have to absorb costs for the uninsured, we have middle men insurance companies making billions, and we have lawyers who have driven malpractice rates to insane levels. Again, i’m sure that the physicians in italy make a bit less than the surgeon here – but the difference isn’t nearly as much as you’d think.
“the radiologist doesn’t look at slides all day”
Who’s the guy who is looking at scans all day?
Miu Miu,
the problem with the conception of physician salaries is that many people have the mindset that healthcare should be cheap, or free, or a ‘right’. While that is a fantastic ideal, it’s just not realistic. Just like anybody else, a physician deserves fair compensation for their work. IF docs were making 5-10 grand per surgery i’d say sure, they are super overpaid. But realistically, the average general surgeon in chicago makes ~ 275k and works nearly 60 hours a week to get there. This is after decades of sacrifice and dedication working for peanuts. Far far from overpaid in my opinion.
You can come up with your conspiracy theory as much as you want but some schools in Illinois had to impose furlough just to pay their faculty. You can deny it all you want. BTW, as a student you ended up seeing the budget of your school ten years ago? How do you know they had no problem paying the bill?
Bob, I dont disagree with your point about easy loans being at fault to some extent at all. I was just pointing out some other factors too.
riz… You are so hyping up your side of the story. Doctors do not have it that hard. I know one that while doing those 14yrs, had a wife and kid and converted 5 different 5 story townhomes to spec. Lived in 3 different cities too. Go cry somewhere else, being a doctor is easy.
I just gave birth and my Dr. Spend 5 minutes at my room at some point and then was there 15 minutes at the end of the pushing. All else was done by nurses. Oh and a resident and another attending couple of times examined me. It was a 24 hour labor and my Dr. was not even 1 hour there. That being said I tend to agree the problem is not physician salaries but all the inefficiencies, law suits and so on.
“riz… You are so hyping up your side of the story. Doctors do not have it that hard. I know one that while doing those 14yrs, had a wife and kid and converted 5 different 5 story townhomes to spec. Lived in 3 different cities too. Go cry somewhere else, being a doctor is easy.”
Dude. What the F are you talking about. Do you know how many hours i work? I worked 80 hours last week. I make 46 grand. You want me to start converting townhouses and living in various cities? Before this I was working my ass off as an intern for years, and before that was busting my ass at the library 12 hours a day to pass my school and licensing exams. 4 years before that I was busting it in college to nail the MCAT and have an A average to get into medical school.
What. are. you . talking. about. We have it INCREDIBLY hard until our 30’s – which is when we still have it hard but at least get paid more than 50 grand for our effort.
IF you knew a rich doc who did that in his 40’s and is rich now ( clio, for example ), sure.
I assure you that type of doctor is a dying breed. We just don’t make that kind of money or have that kind of time.
Don’t comment on stuff that you don’t know anything about.
I think it is hilarious that HD is talking about healthcare costs and blame doctors – when it is his profession (lawyers) that are responsible for high healthcare costs. Tort reform will DRASTICALLY reduce healthcare costs. Right now, physicians/hospitals want to avoid any frivolous lawsuits and therefore order many unnecessary tests to appease patients – it is so ridiculous and all can be solved with tort reform – unfortunately the country is ruled by sleazy lawyers who are hesitant to “hurt” their brothers. HD – YOU and your profession are the problem. Wake up and smell the coffee,
“I just gave birth and my Dr. Spend 5 minutes at my room at some point and then was there 15 minutes at the end of the pushing. All else was done by nurses. Oh and a resident and another attending couple of times examined me. It was a 24 hour labor and my Dr. was not even 1 hour there. That being said I tend to agree the problem is not physician salaries but all the inefficiencies, law suits and so on.”
Well, he / she probably had 12 other patients, clinic, paperwork, and rounds while you were in labor. Unless they were on call they aren’t there for more than 12 hour shifts in OB/GYN anyways. To be honest, in deliveries the only part where the doc needs to be there is the delivery. otherwise it would just be ineffecient.
ze – great memory – except I had TWO kids during that time. But I am an anomaly – I also find time now to hold a full time job (working 80-90 hours a week), be a landlord, own a real estate company, start a new business, and still post on cribchatter all the time!!! Also remember, though, that I am single and have a full time caregiver/caretaker – so I don’t have to do or buy a god damn thing (although I have to pay for it).
yup…that is why other countries have midwife assisted labors and only when a need arises Dr is called. To me it is an inefficient system. As for working hours, how much do you think an assistant prof works? say a physics or a math prof who studied for ever (doing a phd) in a much more intellectually challenging field make 50K a year and believe me they work as much if not more than doctors.
“in a much more intellectually challenging field”
Unless they are doing some intense NIH funded research i’d have to disagree here.
The truth in medicine is that the joy that physicians used to feel (by helping people) is quickly fading and disappearing. The money is not worth the sacrifice – no frickin way – you seriously RUIN your life for this profession and now that the joy of helping is going by the wayside, many doctors are opting out. Fewer and fewer qualified healthcare professionals are out there. So – good luck getting diagnosed by a nurse/nurse practitioner – many serious illnesses and cancers WILL be missed – and, guess what – there will be no repercussions – you just will die of cancer. Oh well – you guys asked for it……. If this is not the way you want to die, then support tort reform.
Riz, in medicine, higher degrees pay off. Not so much in teaching! Look at the CPS pay scale. The highest paid PhD teacher does not make $100k. While teachers may start off at a decent salary for a bachelors, we don’t go up much from there and no good teacher will ever stay with simply a bachelor’s degree. I have only taught 8 years and am already getting my master’s and am finding much has changed in 8 years. Also, the modest pay increase I will get for having a master’s degree will not offset the cost I put into it.
I’m not claiming doctors shouldn’t get thier pay, but in a country where professional athletes (who can simply have HS degrees) make millions, doctors make $350k (some) and most teachers make $50k it is hard to argue salaries based off of things like amount of schooling needed or impact on overall life.
really? so you think someone doing research in K theory is intellectually less challanged than someone prescribing retinA, hydroquinon (spelling) and steroids for every skin problem. I had quite a few friends who got med school degrees who could not pass an advance math exam if their life depended on it. Now you are being unfair and biased. Most medical training is memorizing and pattern matching and improving practical skill sets (say surgery). No genius is needed for that. BTW, if it was not for the scientist, none of the medical imaging stuff existed for the radiologist to even exist. Oh and I had a friend who could not get to any good law school but managed to make it to medical school as her daddy was in the system. She might have even done her residency in your hospital in fact : )
benjamon – don’t exaggerate – in my school district (oak brook butler and hinsdale central) most teachers make over 100k – some making close to 200k (because they take on additional responsibilities). These are also people that get 3 months off in the summer, 2 weeks at christmas, 1 week in feb, 1 week in april, as well as every weekend and every major holiday. Furthermore, I personally know 2 superintendents who really do not seem very busy at all during the day and are able to go out almost any night of the week – VERY VERY VERY different than doctors (and professional athletes).
Clio, did I say anything about Oak Brook teachers or superintendents???? I said CPS teachers, and am not exaggerating. Also, while we may get summer/spring/winter breaks, we also do not get vacation time or overtime or having expenses paid. Do you need ink to print your reports? I’m sure your hospital pays for it. Most teachers (at least in CPS…which is far bigger than Oak Brook) have to pay for thier own ink. I’m not trying to exaggerate or complain about doctors. I am just stating arguing salaries is POINTLESS in the U.S. in my opinion
miumiu – being a good doctor is much more than memorization – you have to assimilate/organize the information, analyze it, and form a correct conclusion within minutes. The reward – a few dollars and perhaps a “thank you” – the penalty – death on your hands, lawsuits, bad reputation, etc. – the stakes are much higher in medicine than any other field – therefore the pressure and stress is higher. You obviously haven’t seen an OB/GYN with a post partum patient in DIC, bleeding out as her husband is besides himself and the lady is begging for you to save her (while her healthy newborn baby is crying nearby). Now THAT is fucking stressful situation.
“Clio, did I say anything about Oak Brook teachers or superintendents???? I said CPS teachers, and am not exaggerating”
OK – well than let’s compare apples to apples – there are some doctors in rural areas making less than 50k/year (not residents). Actually there are MANY doctors that make far less than 100k..
This back and forth is ridiculous – but one thing that I was thinking about as I try to understand all the negativity about real estate on this site (mostly from the younger generation) is that people here tend to over-analyze everything. Building a real estate portfolio or equity in a property (or even just building wealth, in general) is like losing weight – you should just keep on a steady course and stop looking at the scale every minute/every day. Eventually, if you stay the course, you WILL be ahead (and in the meantime, enjoy life). Do an automatic mortgage payment withdrawal and check back in a few years – you will surprised how much you have paid off. If you want to really be happy – add a few hundred bucks a month/quarter – you will feel better about yourself.
“OK – well than let’s compare apples to apples – there are some doctors in rural areas making less than 50k/year (not residents). Actually there are MANY doctors that make far less than 100k.”
Once again Clio, I was talking about CPS teachers, not rural teachers. If you want to talk apples to apples, then talk about Chicago doctors, or I can talk apples to your apples and state that while doctors in rural areas make less than 50k teachers in these areas make 20k.
You have your head so far up your doctor’s deserve what they get you know what that you can’t realize what I am arguing. Once again, I am not attacking doctors, I am attacking the argument of comparing salaries by showing other reasons it does not work.
Absolutely Clio. That is why I hold doctors in very high esteem. It is such a rewarding job and so important. But one tends to have a little bit more appreciations for medecins sans frontieres than dermatologists in LA doing laser hair removal : )
“really? so you think someone doing research in K theory is intellectually less challanged than someone prescribing retinA, hydroquinon (spelling) and steroids for every skin problem. I had quite a few friends who got med school degrees who could not pass an advance math exam if their life depended on it. Now you are being unfair and biased. Most medical training is memorizing and pattern matching and improving practical skill sets (say surgery). No genius is needed for that. BTW, if it was not for the scientist, none of the medical imaging stuff existed for the radiologist to even exist. Oh and I had a friend who could not get to any good law school but managed to make it to medical school as her daddy was in the system. She might have even done her residency in your hospital in fact : )”
right. but what percentage of doctors are dermatologists? do you know what they scored on their board exams to match that residency? likely 99%tile.
My best friend is a phD in neuroscience and trust me, he’s not as bright as most of my colleagues. Anybody can sit in a lab and do research – just like anybody can prescribe a steroid. i’m not saying that phd’s and scientists arent as smart as physicians, i’m just saying the reverse is certainly not true either. do you really think people who get into medical school in this country couldn’t have done a phD in just about anything they wanted? you have to be insanely competitive to be a physician ( american grad ) here.
and i’m sorry, MD’s or MD/PhD’s are on the forefront of just about every other MEDICAL breakthrough. i could care less about what form of strep bacteria responds to alpha hemolysis in 37 degree temperatures, or about math or physics.
P.S. – your friend is full of it . law school is a JOKE to get into. you need to be much much smarter to get into med school. this is just a FACT.
“This back and forth is ridiculous – but one thing that I was thinking about as I try to understand all the negativity about real estate on this site (mostly from the younger generation) is that people here tend to over-analyze everything. Building a real estate portfolio or equity in a property (or even just building wealth, in general) is like losing weight – you should just keep on a steady course and stop looking at the scale every minute/every day. Eventually, if you stay the course, you WILL be ahead (and in the meantime, enjoy life). Do an automatic mortgage payment withdrawal and check back in a few years – you will surprised how much you have paid off. If you want to really be happy – add a few hundred bucks a month/quarter – you will feel better about yourself.”
I’ll agree with you on this clio! I certainly don’t look at the scale every year. I wouldn’t even be looking at the scale, although as many people did in the past I was imagining I might move on from this condo into a house. Now that it would be nice to move into a home, I see that isn’t happening anytime soon. So, I’m enjoying my house, but I still think it sucks that my place is worth 66% of what I paid.
” I had quite a few friends who got med school degrees who could not pass an advance math exam if their life depended on it.”
Right. just like I have friends that are phD’s who wouldn’t know the first thing to do when a patient came to them with lymphadenopathy and a sore throat. Compare apples to apples. For what it’s worth, i was a Calc II, Physics, and Topology tutor in Undergrad. wasn’t as challenging as medicine.
well benjamon9,
Again, for what it’s worth..if i could be 22 again and start at 50k with the potential to make 60 or so with summer school, and be home by 5…i wouldn’t have to think twice.
“Building a real estate portfolio or equity in a property (or even just building wealth, in general) is like losing weight – you should just keep on a steady course and stop looking at the scale every minute/every day. Eventually, if you stay the course, you WILL be ahead (and in the meantime, enjoy life).”
I agree with this- the problem is that the average american moves every 7 years (or at least they did until this housing bust trapped them in their houses.)
If we go back to the mentality that you just buy ONE property- and you will live there 10 or 20 years- then this strategy may work.
It means certain doom for the 1-bedroom and most of the 2-bedroom condos in the city. Single family homes and larger condos/townhouses would hold up fairly well.
If you want to see what is really going on out there- check out these homeowners in a neighborhood in Las Vegas. Once a neighborhood (or a condo building) starts to see a ton of foreclosures- it doesn’t make any sense for the others to stay and keep paying.
It’s also interesting how by simply paying a smaller portion of your income towards housing- you can actually do other things (save for retirement, have money for a vacation, have some savings). Those people who walked away and are now renting are living the much easier life. And in just a year or two their credit will be good enough to once again buy again (if they so choose.) Of course, they walked away in 2008/2009.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2011-06-12-mortgage-default_n.htm
miumiu, maybe we just need to learn not to step on doctor’s fragile egos. I don’t think they are getting our points. 🙂
hey hey. i totally got your point. like i said, no point in trying to allocate who should get paid what or who does get paid what, in the end the market/economy pays what it will anyways.
i dont meen to be crabby guys.. just post call and extra bitter with the career these days.
I’ll believe you on that one too, Riz! I wasn’t really complaining, just pointing out salaries are not always what they should be. I’m fine with what I get, but when people defend making $350k, it can be difficult to swallow. Also, I’m beyond 22 and still not making much more than that $50k. Once again, in most jobs you get more pay with experience than you do in teaching, but I’ll shut up about salaries now. 🙂
* the significant other broke it off as a direct result of my work hours so i’m just extra pissed off at medicine right now, haha.
on the bright side, from what sabrina posted looks like we can get a steal on a house in Vegas.
Riz, I think maybe a lot of us are extra bitter about both our careers and real estate these days. Niether area is looking very positive lately!
I am so sorry Riz. But honestly, this is how your career is going to be. You need a partner who understands that stands by you. Some people are just needy and demand extra attention. I for one would not stay with a man that could not understand my career goals. Remember half of the world population is women. I am sure you’ll find someone amazing.
As for mood, I am postpartum and get little sleep and miss my pre-pregnancy figure so there is always someone more unfortunate in life : ) That being said thank heavens for small joys of life like being able to sleep on my back after so many month and wearing really high heels : )
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jumping_the_shark
riz… Wait.. You caught the clio joke and took the thing seriously. Go take a long jog and burn something off. I see cracks forming.
Salaries are simple to understand, a combination of money available, risk taken, required skill, and population capable of performing the task. We all had an idea of them when we went to college and choose our path. Problem is everyone once in the field forgets and then wants more…always more.
As for doctors… That’s an awful thing to do to your 20’s and 30’s. Doctor is a nice thing to be when your 50. I can’t discuss this any longer… I hear the voice of my mom sharing with me her dissapointment in me not becoming one.
Riz… Balance!! Nothing more important.
Clio… You have been funnier-and much less dicky- lately.
and lawyers.. Yep the most awfullest profession ever. I’d kill myself before defending a murderer or rapist. I don’t care what they are entitled to.
Smart people though. Smart enough to deflect the hatred onto the -deserved banksters- of course if anyone took the time to look at the background of many a senior officer at a bank.. Hmmm lawyers.. And those securitizations were drafted by, and audited mainly by…. …
G’morn anons…hehehe
“Heck, you can get a 2/2 in LP for $340k or a 2/2 in Ukranian Village for the same price. The Ukranian Village unit is selling. The LP unit is not.”
Leaving aside the spontaneous acts of hipsters newly minted with a trust fund, I’m not so sure about that assertion, Sabrina. Show me the $340k LP 2/2 and show me the UV $340k 2/2. What are the monthly costs, beyond the mortgages? More importantly, what are the units and locations like? My guess is that the UV is simply a nicer home. The only places worth living in the mid-to-high 300’s I’ve seen in LP lately are those little 3/2.5’s on Grant. Otherwise, most 2/2’s for $340k in LP are poorly located and/or generic and increasingly run-down.
hmm.. Just thought of a whole laundry list of things lawyers do to help. So damn tough to have 1 opinion when so many coins have two sides.
“The only places worth living in the mid-to-high 300’s I’ve seen in LP lately are those little 3/2.5’s on Grant. Otherwise, most 2/2’s for $340k in LP are poorly located and/or generic and increasingly run-down.”
Anonny: you have to leave your 2 block radius. There are plenty of other properties in Lincoln Park that are the same price as those in the Ukranian Village. Yet the Ukranian Village units seem to be moving but the LP ones are not. Sure- the UK units might have granite and the LP ones do not. But otherwise, there isn’t much difference. I would also say- there are actually cheaper 1-bedrooms in LP now than in many other neighborhoods, including Bucktown and Wicker Park.
To me, it seems like Lincoln Park is just getting crushed right now.
Ze, you are my favorite CC character. I read everything you post even if you are flip flopping : ) You are not by any chance Russian in your background are you?
I have noticed I have special adoration for Russian Jews : )
“do you really think people who get into medical school in this country couldn’t have done a phD in just about anything they wanted?”
Well, “wanted” is a big qualifier, but I do doubt that most med students could have gotten in and completed a phd program in physics or math, not that that’s necessarily a statement of what is more intellectually challenging.
“Again, for what it’s worth..if i could be 22 again and start at 50k with the potential to make 60 or so with summer school, and be home by 5…i wouldn’t have to think twice.”
That is an awfully different lifestyle. No fancy house, cars, or vacations.
oh man so many characters on this blog
“To me, it seems like Lincoln Park is just getting crushed right now.”
Sabrina, my radius is bigger than two blocks.
Do a search for properties in LP on Redfin. The map is covered with flags in the western and northwestern areas. Most days, there are literally two or three properties in the $450-$525k range east of Halsted.
“I do doubt that most med students could have gotten in and completed a phd program in physics or math, not that that’s necessarily a statement of what is more intellectually challenging.”
Second.
“That is an awfully different lifestyle. No fancy house, cars, or vacations.”
Keep in mind that at 22 Riz knew he had a trust fund, too. So he’d be one buying a (say) $300k condo on a $50k income, and not having a cashflow issue.
thanks miu… The flip flopping is intentional, i hate conventional wisdom and stroking things with a broad brush. i see few things as simple, definitive, or one sided. But ah how i find peace in the chaos. It’s really is a beautiful and just fascinating world.
Ruskie on all 4 sides. Blue eyes suggest ukranian, I think. Or maybe just great great great…… Great grandmother liked herself some occupying romans or something.
“Sabrina, my radius is bigger than two blocks. ”
Yeah, it’s 4 and a quarter, but only every other side of the street in each direction.
There might be a lot of shadow inventory and cheap properties like the one profiled in this post, but that doesn’t mean that most of these are viable options for most of us. For example, I’ve been in contract for a year now on a short sale condo in Uptown with no word from the bank. It’s a joke, and I ended up closing on a separate REO in under 30 days. Most of the other places I viewed were in terrible condition in ghost buildings, and those were the ones where the listing agents actually returned our calls.
G posted a list of recent sales in Albany Park. I had viewed some of those personally a few months prior. Some were recent conversions where the entire building had gone under. Some had non-existent HOAs and major structural problems or were overrun by vermin because the resident owners who were left were taking care of the maintenance. Some had few or no owner occupiers so you couldn’t get financing. Most were garden level or low first floor units.
I think most of us who read this blog want to land a place in reasonable repair at a good price. But even though prices are low and more shadow inventory is popping up, realistically most of these are places no one would consider. There might be a ton of shadow inventory out there, but it’s still hard to find a suitable place in good financial and physical repair.
Yes, I thought so. Smart great sense of humor and ability to laugh at oneself are all great traits to have : )
Just curious–I’ve been wondering this for a while: how many people on this site have a PH.D. in any field?
How many have an MD?
How many are lawyers?
CPAS?
Answer only if you want to, but I’ll bet this site is full of over-educated, (maybe underpaid) citizens:)
I’ll admit to a Ph.D.
anon.. That was great!
Milkster… Sabrina keeps saying it and i concur. What ever happened to people that saw the benefit of sweat equity. Americans are just soft with soft hands and soft feet. There needs to be a law against 5 yr olds in strollers, i think it starts there.
Miu… I tried maturing once. Extremely overated, bit sad too.
“There needs to be a law against 5 yr olds in strollers”
Hate that sooo much.
“Keep in mind that at 22 Riz knew he had a trust fund, too. So he’d be one buying a (say) $300k condo on a $50k income, and not having a cashflow issue.”
I had forgotten that. That said, I sense that Riz has spending aspirations (a residence for the long term that is well beyond the $300K condo) that may exceed the trust fund (however much that is). I don’t have a trust fund, have some savings, and I will say that from time to time, the thought of teaching and having my summers free is more than a little appealing.
Hi gringo –
I’m workin’ that sweat equity, son! But you can’t turn hamburger into filet, know what I mean? You’ve got to start with good, fresh ingredients.
http://toobigforstroller.com/ (not sure where I saw the link first, maybe from here)
endora,
definitely an educated crowd here.
Underpaid, i think this thready clearly proves in other eyes, no. In their own eyes yes.
As for school…i have a B.A. In having learned absolutely nothing, ecstatically followed by the theme song from meatballs.
“I sense that Riz has spending aspirations (a residence for the long term that is well beyond the $300K condo) that may exceed the trust fund (however much that is).”
Riz, my intention is not to attack you, just give you some friendly advice. You mentioned once that you were tapping into the capital in your trust fund to pay your rent and that is a big no-no. Do not touch your capital. Live off the income from it. Downsize to a more humble rental if you have to.
Gringo –
So curious. What did you do before you became a cattle farmer in Brazil? How did you decide to make that move and career change?
“What did you do before you became a cattle farmer in Brazil? How did you decide to make that move and career change?”
He got rich gambling with house money. (I keed.)
Oh crap my youngest kid is going to end up on that site. 97th percentile for height and weight, he looks like a 3 year old and he’s 13 months. I’ve been asked why he isn’t walking before. I actually scrolled through to check he isn’t there already.
I don’t have a degree of any kind but I earn as much as all my CPA colleagues (and more than some of them). My sister meanwhile has a pHd and has never had a real job, she’s a year older than me. In fact she’s been trying to get a job for the last year and across 4 countries hasn’t even had an interview.
What field is your sister in?
“How many are lawyers?”
Just count the *anon*s (hey anon, if I use “*” for emphasis, what I am supposed to do when I need it for its long established use as wildcard).
Photocatalysis.
In contrast my other sister works at Blockbuster and has a photo of a bottle of Jäger as her Facebook profile pic!
I confess to a PhD as well : )
Ze, weren’t you talking about Levy processes at some point? I though you did financial engineering or something.
I think the stroller thing is pathetic too. Just make the kid walk. As if there are not enough obese ones out there.
milkster,
last time i tried answering that to someone i reread the paragraph realizing it was missing a book between each of the sentences. I don’t really know how to answer.
But dairy farming – although i think of it as a total accident, or just playing around or grass farming or the efficient maximization of solar energy processing, crazy interesting stuff actually, cattle farming btw would be like urinating on your karma.
“the problem with the conception of physician salaries is that many people have the mindset that healthcare should be cheap, or free, or a ‘right’. While that is a fantastic ideal, it’s just not realistic. Just like anybody else, a physician deserves fair compensation for their work. IF docs were making 5-10 grand per surgery i’d say sure, they are super overpaid. But realistically, the average general surgeon in chicago makes ~ 275k and works nearly 60 hours a week to get there. This is after decades of sacrifice and dedication working for peanuts. Far far from overpaid in my opinion.”
Free healthcare isn’t realistic? Really? Is most of the developed world not “realistic” then?
“hey anon, if I use “*” for emphasis, what I am supposed to do when I need it for its long established use as wildcard”
If Madeline(?) gave me the nickel tour of html that works on CC, I’d stop with the asterisks. But it’s easier than figuring it out for myself.
As for the search, I find the * wildcard is usually over inclusive or too restrictive, at least on the intertubez.
“Free healthcare isn’t realistic? Really? Is most of the developed world not “realistic” then?”
Um, watch your use of “free” there.
miu… For a background that would be a nice broad and satisfactory definition, but it was not me discussing that specific topic.
“Free” healthcare isn’t free. Take a look at taxes in most of the developed world. I laugh at people that think 10% sales tax is high.
“Free healthcare isn’t realistic? Really? Is most of the developed world not “realistic” then?”
Nat – healthcare is not “free” in any country – someone is paying for it (ie the government). This will translate into much much higher taxes and much much tighter control of what you can and cannot have (in terms of healthcare). Even for semi-emergent procedures there are long waiting times – think of the morbidity and mortality from that – and what are you going to do? sue the government? no- even in England, there was a cap on when you cannot get dialysis paid for by the government (I think it was 65). So, no Nat – NOTHING is free.
and riz… Tap that fund.. You’ll make up for it later. He ain’t goin nowhere. Mommy and daddy have laid down the expectations well, i am sure.
Clio:
Much higher taxes? Our government already spends more on health care than all but two countries (according to 2007 numbers). We can provide universal health care without increasing government spending on health care. We just need to spend smarter, not spend more.
Your claims of increased morbidity and mortality are not born by the facts, as the U.S. has poorer life expectancies than much of the developing world.
Increased waiting times are a small price to pay for quality health care for the tens of millions who lack insurance now.
And you’re wrong on the English dialysis cutoff. It’s FUD.
So how come England (your example) has better outcomes that the US for much less money? Some sort of “prognosis rationing” to cut down on things like MRIs on people with less than a month to live would seem to be in order. That’s what I hear from friends in health care. Too many uneccesary procedures under the current system. Doesn’t have to be based on age as much on expected outcomes.
http://humanitiesandhealth.wordpress.com/2011/03/11/a-transatlantic-health-divide-england-citizens-healthier-than-their-us-cousins/
” Even for semi-emergent procedures there are long waiting times – think of the morbidity and mortality from that – and what are you going to do? sue the government? no- even in England, there was a cap on when you cannot get dialysis paid for by the government (I think it was 65). So, no Nat – NOTHING is free.”
There is no denying that healthcare in this country is very inefficient:
http://lauraschneider.wordpress.com/2009/06/20/where-does-america-rank-in-healthcare-quality-and-efficiency/
BTW, we pay nearly 30% taxes which I think is fair, what annoys me is how little the rich pay.
“If Madeline(?) gave me the nickel tour of html that works on CC, I’d stop with the asterisks. But it’s easier than figuring it out for myself.”
I’d assumed it was by choice. The bold/italics on comments seem a bit like shouting when no one else does it.
“As for the search, I find the * wildcard is usually over inclusive or too restrictive, at least on the intertubez.”
Tubes? I’m thinking DOS.
Oh and man I’d rather go to doctor in Italy over here any day. They are so much more attentive and caring. Now if I had some serious disease and was trying forefront say cancer treatment there is no denying US leads the world. But I tried getting an MRI in this country while having a very good insurance and they would just not give it to me. I went to Italy and got one without having insurance for 500$ so give me a break with your claims that government provided healthcare sucks in the rest of the world when you have not lived even a year out of this country.
“Tubes? I’m thinking DOS.”
Well, if you’re using DOS, I don’t know what to say.
“I’d assumed it was by choice. The bold/italics on comments seem a bit like shouting when no one else does it.”
Sure, especially bold, and you may be right that I’d stick with the asterisks, b/c it’s so many fewer keystrokes.
“Well, if you’re using DOS, I don’t know what to say.”
I learned all those wordperfect 5 codes and didn’t want to give those up.
I can’t say much about 500 dollar MRI’s in Italy, but I know for a fact the doctors or nurses don’t see a dime of that for running those tests. We order too many tests bc patients sue us too damn much and that drives costs up for everybody.
For all of you stating a medical student couldn’t get into or. Complete a phD in math or physics, are you loopy? I learned the anatomy, physiology, pathology an traemt for the entire huan body in 4 years and you compare that yo lab workers who are paid a stipend for their work and have up to 7 years to complete a thesis??? Please. Again, no comparison.
Excuse the typos guys. Yes, having a trust has a direct
Impact on lifestyle and expectations. My salary post tax is usually barely enough to pay for rent, Let alone food/entertainment/insurance or my material addictions. I should probably not dip into it but if I’m blowing my 20s toiling in a hospital 80 hours a week, it’s hard to care about saving 5 or so percent of the trust year to year. Guess I was taught to be kind of a gunslinger by the old man- love life now , no point in being a rich 60 year old with no memories!
“I learned the anatomy, physiology, pathology an traemt for the entire huan body in 4 years and you compare that yo lab workers who are paid a stipend for their work and have up to 7 years to complete a thesis??? Please. Again, no comparison.”
You’re right, there is no comparison, but you are crediting it the wrong way. And math/physics phd students who hang around for 7 years are intentionally wasting time and/or stuck. 7 should encompass a 2 year post doc, too.
“For all of you stating a medical student couldn’t get into or. Complete a phD in math or physics, are you loopy?”
I doubt the median (in terms of math abilities) med student could pass a rigorous undergrad algebra class.
“I doubt the median (in terms of math abilities) med student could pass a rigorous undergrad algebra class.”
….and I doubt the average american (PhD, MD or whatever degree) could pass a basic language test in chinese!!! So what’s your point? and what is the point of this argument? Basically, can we agree that there are talented people in every field. I think what Riz is trying to express is that the negatives of being in the medical field are far downplayed and unknown to society (much like the negatives of being a professional athlete or movie star). Many people who go into medical school are disillusioned – they think that they can save people, gain respect and still make a great living. Such is not the case anymore (unfortunately) – this leads to a lot of frustration in the field. The fact that the average american (or even above average american) has no idea the rigors of the field make it even more frustrating.
“I doubt the median (in terms of math abilities) med student could pass a rigorous undergrad algebra class.”
That’s too far the other way, unless by “rigorous” you mean “Analytic Number Theory”, or similar.
Riz I don’t want to discuss this any more with you. But believe me writing a thesis is much harder than memorizing stuff, you actually have to come up with something new! Now there are fields that are very experimental and doing doctorates in those is much easier than theoretical fields.
As for contribution of physicians to even medicine, just go check the list of Nobel Laureates in medicine. Even in your field all the ground breaking stuff is done by scientists not by clinicians.
Oh and I was just talking to my friend who is a cardiologist at Texas heart and he was complaining about a resident with medical degree from some island (not sure what that really means) who is at Texas Heart a top medical program because daddy got him there and he cannot do anything and my friend is so frustrated with him. Now this guy will soon start practicing and poor patients have no idea how he got to the residency program in the first place!
Now one’s daddy cannot write one’s doctorate thesis for one unless your daddy was Bohr…
I have said all I have to say on this subject. I am always amazed at the ego of doctors. If you ask someone with an engineering PhD, they would admit it is harder to do a PhD in mathematics, but ask a Dr. and they feel they are top scientist without shred of evidence. Even if they have not opened a book after they left school!
His point is any math PhD can finish med school converse is not true, most physicians cannot get a doctorate and write a thesis in math.
“it’s hard to care about saving 5 or so percent of the trust year to year. Guess I was taught to be kind of a gunslinger by the old man- love life now , no point in being a rich 60 year old with no memories!”
Very respectfully, Riz because I don’t want to step on your toes –
You are a young man, and if you spend 5% of your trust every year, you will blow through it in 20 years and that would be sad. I’m not proposing an ascetic life devoid of pleasure. Just that with a few minor changes you can keep your financial cushion and even grow it.
“I think what Riz is trying to express”
No, Riz has been pretty clear in expressing his view that the best and brightest are all in medicine, and that any med student in the top (half, quarter, all of ’em, whatever) could have *easily* slid into any other post grad field, had they so chosen in their Soph year of college. Which you must acknowledge is untrue.
That said, I’m willing to write that off as related to Riz’s professional and personal circumstances of the past couple weeks, and not his real position.
I think most people who go to medical school are frustrated that they don’t immediate make ton of money and have to work so many hours. I have not heard any where that Riz is worried about kids dying in Africa.
“That’s too far the other way, unless by “rigorous” you mean “Analytic Number Theory”, or similar.”
Yes, more or less. I mean what is sometimes called abstract or modern algebra, which has applications in and common lines of development with number theory (someone correct me if I have this wrong). And by rigorous I mean a proof based course and test, which makes it very easy to fail.
“and I doubt the average american (PhD, MD or whatever degree) could pass a basic language test in chinese!!! So what’s your point?”
Just responding to Riz’s claim that med students could easily get a phd in physics or math.
“I have not heard any where that Riz is worried about kids dying in Africa.”
Wrong way to go, miumiu. He’s mentioned his father’s and his financial and participatory support of a clinic in Uganda(?), so you’re picking on the wrong doc on that one.
“any med student in the top (half, quarter, all of ‘em, whatever) could have *easily* slid into any other post grad field, had they so chosen in their Soph year of college. Which you must acknowledge is untrue.”
No – I don’t acknowledge that – and there is a reason that most mds feel the way they do – because it IS true. While at harvard, I pursued an additional advanced degree for two years (basic research) after medical school – I have a great perspective on both sides. They are completely opposite ends of a spectrum. Research is frustrating because you can work and work and work and still not come up with any desired results. On the other hand, your time is unstructured (and you can take a few hours/days off) without any problem – therefore overall life might be better. In medicine, if you study and memorize, you WILL see results – also there IS more recognition as a physician. However, your personal time is no longer your own. The time constraints of a physician cannot be compared to any other field (except maybe the president or mayor, etc.).
That being said, medical school has always been the toughest graduate school to gain admission (percentage wise) – and that is only counting the people who apply (there are tens of thousands that start off as pre-med and realize they can’t do it and don’t even apply) – so yes, I would bet almost any amount that any physician/medical student could gain admission into any graduate school in any other field (based on academic achievements).
“Yes, more or less.”
Yeah, the median med student is happy to get a A- in Calc 1 (or whatever), not even attempt a Junior year math major class.
But then, stats is much more valuable math-related coursework for a doc–esp a md/phd, never see a patient post-residency doc–than any higher order maths.
“No – I don’t acknowledge that ”
Fine, live with being wrong.
“medical school has always been the toughest graduate school to gain admission (percentage wise)”
That’s all well and good, but comparing admissions stats is ridiculous, b/c math/physics PhD programs *REQUIRE* math/physics BS’s, and so, with a small, small, pool of candidates, it’s relatively easy to gain admission, percentage wise.
“That’s all well and good, but comparing admissions stats is ridiculous, b/c math/physics PhD programs *REQUIRE* math/physics BS’s, and so, with a small, small, pool of candidates, it’s relatively easy to gain admission, percentage wise.”
same goes for medical school, genius
“same goes for medical school, genius”
Medical school requires a *particular* degree? Really? What is it, “pre-med”?
So, those English majors I knew in college who went on to med school didn’t *actually* go to med school? It was all a lie?
anon, it is the same difference – medical school requirements are actually much more stringent than admission requirements to any other graduate school. (BTW – when you wrote “BS” I didn’t realize you were talking about a degree – I thought you meant “bull shit”)
“The time constraints of a physician cannot be compared to any other field (except maybe the president or mayor, etc.).”
Awesome.
Doctors on average are pretty intelligent, but I have seen more than my fair share of doctors (and other supposedly smart people) lacking basic common sense or having knowledge of anything outside of their very narrow field. I’ve also come across some very intelligent folks who do not have formal educations or are very blue collar.
In fact, I really haven’t seen anything that really says certain groups/professions are more intelligent or smarter than others groups other than egos looking for validation of their life choices.
“BTW – when you wrote “BS” I didn’t realize you were talking about a degree – I thought you meant “bull shit””
Understandable, but yeah, degree. Engineering phd programs are a little laxer on the UG degree (know of a anthro BA who got into a EE phd program, for example). And the math-physics degrees have potential to cross over. But you ain’t majoring in Classics and getting into MIT’s astrophysics phd program by taking a couple of math classes, even if they’re really hard.
“the president or mayor,”
Like they’re roughly equivalent.
What is so hard about med school admissions? Don’t you just have to score high on the MCAT and have a reasonable inflated undergrad GPA?
I say top tier b-school admissions are harder than any other graduate school simply because the criteria for admissions is much more involved. You already have to be very successful in a career, very well rounded, plus all the other basic academic requirements.
“I say top tier b-school admissions are harder than any other graduate school simply because the criteria for admissions is much more involved. You already have to be very successful in a career, very well rounded, plus all the other basic academic requirements.”
Hasn’t Wharton sullied itself by accepting straight thru students?
Clio you are right it is very tough to get to med school as many want to get in and everyone that get in will most likely graduate and make good money. Now it is easier to get to graduate school in math and sciences as fewer people qualify, have the capability and will ever finish. So you are validating my claim.
“I say top tier b-school admissions are harder than any other graduate school simply because the criteria for admissions is much more involved. You already have to be very successful in a career, very well rounded, plus all the other basic academic requirements.”
I like how everyone thinks his/her own deal is special.
“I say top tier b-school admissions are harder than any other graduate school simply because the criteria for admissions is much more involved. ”
top b-school admissions are hard bc many spots are reserved for people with ties. If you look at some of the HBS graduates, you would be surprised. At Harvard, there were parties/functions where the university tried to get the graduate students to co-mingle. The PhD students never came, the Law students were always the best dressed and seemed pretty smart, the med students were obviously the most intelligent, confident well-rounded, and b-school students were just a bunch of buffoons – with every function it became more interesting to me how these morons got into a business school (let alone Harvard) – then it became obvious that the number of students is enormous and the feeder firms have a lot of influence.
I’m sure they have in some folks eyes, but I don’t think they admit enough undergrads straight through in any significant numbers for it to really matter. I’m sure the undergrads they do direct admit are super stars in their own right.
I’d say that admission to the school of hard knocks is the most difficult of all.
“I like how everyone thinks his/her own deal is special.”
As you can tell, on that basis, I have multiple phds in hard sciences.
To go with my masters degree ….
.
.
.
in
.
.
.
Science!!
“med students were obviously the most intelligent, confident well-rounded,”
I take your word for it Clio, but I often find doctors quite illiterate except in their own profession. I had a business school Prof. boyfriend for years and thought they were well read, could talk about various topics, economy (naturally), politics, had read many good works of literature, etc…Now if by business schools student you mean MBAs (not PhDs) that is a whole other story.
Now the doctors I know cannot talk about anything buy money and their job. I have to find one yet that has some literary knowledge, but might just be my sample.
“the university tried to get the graduate students to co-mingle. The PhD students never came’
Isn’t that alone sufficient proof that the PhD students were *in fact* the “smartest”?
very funny anon- and very true……
you are all overeducated dorks
sonies you are my hero except for the dog thing : )
miumiu – you are absolutely correct – the rigors of being a doctor have nothing to do with intelligence (although you definitely have to be above average in intelligence) – it has more to do with discipline and commitment. I always thought that the armed forces would be a great place to pick future doctors. They have the discipline, attention, ability to do hard work, and the commitment to make it happen. Screen them for the top 20% – take the most compassionate of the group and train them to be physicians. That way, you wouldn’t get all the whiny doctors…. (like me)
“riz… You are so hyping up your side of the story. Doctors do not have it that hard. I know one that while doing those 14yrs, had a wife and kid and converted 5 different 5 story townhomes to spec. Lived in 3 different cities too. Go cry somewhere else, being a doctor is easy.”
“Dude. What the F are you talking about. Do you know how many hours i work? I worked 80 hours last week. I make 46 grand. You want me to start converting townhouses and living in various cities?”
I sincerely wish Riz the best through his current speed bump, but can’t help adding that I really enjoyed this exchange (especially the “various cities” part).
Riz on June 14th, 2011 at 10:35 am
“I can’t say much about 500 dollar MRI’s in Italy, but I know for a fact the doctors or nurses don’t see a dime of that for running those tests. We order too many tests bc patients sue us too damn much and that drives costs up for everybody.”
“The most impressive and comprehensive study is by the Harvard Medical Practice released in 1990. The Harvard researchers took a huge sample of 31,000 medical records, dating from the mid-1980s, and had them evaluated by practicing doctors and nurses, the professionals most likely to be sympathetic to the demands of the doctor’s office and operating room. The records went through multiple rounds of evaluation, and a finding of negligence was made only if two doctors, working independently, separately reached that conclusion. Even with this conservative methodology, the study found that doctors were injuring one out of every 25 patients—and that only 4 percent of these injured patients sued.”
http://www.slate.com/id/2145400/
I especially agree with ze that lawyers haven’t really done anything good for this country since (maybe) 1964
I’m sure some here will disagree
“I really enjoyed this exchange (especially the “various cities” part).”
It is a gem.
btw, have we hit the record for most comments, at least without the discussion going off the rails into deletion territory?
“I especially agree with ze that lawyers haven’t really done anything good for this country since (maybe) 1964.”
Come on, Sonies; you’re smarter than that. That’s about as intelligent a comment as one normally sees in the mouth-breathing comments section of the Trib, when there’s an article about, for instance, lawyers being let go at a major firm (e.g., “hell, it’s a good start…fewer ambulance chasers is always a good thing!”).
Pretty much every aspect of your existence (including this country) can be traced to the work of lawyers, including work done since 1964 (before which you apparently believe was the golden age of lawyering, though you don’t specify how many 1,000’s of years back it goes). Unless you feel that most aspects of your existence (including this country) lack “anything good,” I fail to see the basis for your attorney animus. I certainly hope you’re not that miserable.
Still annony, if my ship is sinking and I have to choose a life boat, I’ll sit in the one that has Clio (Dr.), Groove (who can actually make stuff), ze (farmer), and anon (just cause he is fun) rather than the one carrying the lawyers.
It is a joke BTW so don’t get your knickers in a twist : )
would clio be allowed to bring his caregiver?
“Pretty much every aspect of your existence (including this country) can be traced to the work of lawyers”
Awesome.
“would clio be allowed to bring his caregiver?”
Or his interpreter, through whom he apparently interacts with the lesser outside world.
hah, thought of that after. could be the same person, full-time caregiver btw.
the last kind of lifeboat doc I’d want is a radiologist. I like most I know but how is that going to help you on a desert island. At least Riz might have some sunburn prevention tips.
whats wrong with you people. We all contribute nothing. Clicking refresh in your web browser requires what intelligence?
Oh and wharton sullied… Roflmao.. I would hire out of there before any other b-school. Most others require a complete military style demoralizing dress down and retraining. And for the record i did not go there and am not speaking my position.
Oh and miu.. I have seen a thesis here and there i couldnt believe someone spent time writing…
And riz… Use it!!! Will make little diff to you in time. Huge diff today. I remember my 1st boss yelling at me for contributing to a 401k. I couldn’t understand how someone so sharp could be so dumb. I get it now.
“Still annony, if my ship is sinking and I have to choose a life boat, I’ll sit in the one that has Clio (Dr.), Groove (who can actually make stuff), ze (farmer), and anon (just cause he is fun) rather than the one carrying the lawyers.”
I take it you’re assuming that the lifeboat is going to make it ashore somewhere, where you’ll need to build a new civilization. A doctor, builder, farmer and performer would, of course, come in handy in such a situation. However, leaving aside the fact that being a lawyer and a builder/farmer/performer are not mutually exclusive (and I’d venture that there are more lawyer-artists/musicians/comedians/actors than there are doctor/mba/phd-artists/musicians/comedians/actors; note also that I ate lunch today with an MD who’s a fulltime practicing lawyer), a few things come to mind.
First, it should be noted that the likelihood of your ship sinking in the first place was reduced, in part, as a result of legal work. And the likelihood of your group being rescued was increased, in part, by the existence of various treaties, etc., which, yes, are the result of legal work.
Second, are you feeling confident in the sea-worthiness of that lifeboat? Again, from the design, raw material sourcing, construction and sale of that lifeboat, to the regulation that required it to be placed on to your ship, lawyers were there every step of the way, playing obvious and not-so-obvious roles.
Third, as your new civilization is forming, you may wish to establish some system of governance/order/standards…basically, CIVILIZATION, and unless your new civilization is going to be profoundly different than human civilization over the past few thousand years or so, those details are usually handled by the lawyers. I don’t think that Clio, ze, anon or even Groove will be content to simply donate their various efforts to the civilization, once you’re past the initial survival stage.
p.s. I haven’t had a chance to congratulate you yet on the new arrival. Congrats! I hope you and the baby are doing well. While we’re on the topic, I noticed that you pointed out in another thread that your doctor was involved for about 5 minutes, while the nurses handled the rest. To which one of our resident doctors responded along the lines of “well, that’s the only efficient way to do it…” I’m glad for your and your baby’s sake, and my baby’s and wife’s sake, that lawyers have forced them to spend at least 5 minutes in the delivery process. Before he became a slimeball, plaintiffs’ lawyers like John Edwards made a small fortune by detecting patterns of short-cuts and negligence on the part of OB/GYNs and their hospitals…and rather than continuing to make other plaintiff’s lawyers rich, the insurance companies, hospitals and the AMA took steps to improve procedures and safety precautions relating to childbirth.
“Oh and wharton sullied… Roflmao”
It was a joke, premised on Russ’ description of B-School admission req’s.
DZ.. So hows it feel to have just learned that a lawyer knocked up your mom. Heck, all our moms… Wow.. I just now understand why half the time i can be such a bastard.
Wow, that was an unintended play on words… Lol… Oh and ze would have the weed so riz comes on the boat cause i think of him as kumar.
Anon.. I know you are joking… But only you.
For what it is worth: I know a woman who got both her Ph.D. in English and her MD from the University of CHicago. (It is not me–I swear!) She told me that getting the Ph.D. in English was much more difficult, because all one really had to do in Medical School is memorize a lot of material. In contrast, the English Ph.D. demanded original thought.
I know this will be controversial, but I swear it is true. Discuss away!
“She told me that getting the Ph.D. in English was much more difficult, because all one really had to do in Medical School is memorize a lot of material. In contrast, the English Ph.D. demanded original thought.”
I’ve heard the same thing from a few people.
“I know this will be controversial, but I swear it is true. Discuss away!”
Goes to DZ’s point–everyone talks their book.
I am still of the opinion that creativity is harder than pattern matching. Hence we can make machines that play chess so well that they beat the best players (machine goes systematically through all possibilities), but cannot make any machine that can come up with a new strategy (create).
Thanks anonny. I am still not taking the lawyer in my life boat : )
oh jesus what have I started
“Wrong way to go, miumiu. He’s mentioned his father’s and his financial and participatory support of a clinic in Uganda(?), so you’re picking on the wrong doc on that one”
Thanks for that. good memory.
I’m not saying MD’s are the only smart people out here. what I am saying is that I think it’s widely not understood just how much intelligence and effort it takes to be a physician. Everyone loves to talk about how it’s just ‘memorizing’ and spitting out facts. Sorry, that’s not what medicine is like, it’s not an algorithm and patterns, as miumiu graciously puts it, if that was the case we’d have robots doing it. ( and we do sometimes, they’re called P.A’s or nurse practitioners )
That aside, It’s obvious that there are some incredibly brilliant people earning their PhD’s and MBA’s at places like UChicago, Harvard, Stanford, Yale, etc, no disagreeance here, My point was simply that the ‘average’ med student could get into and complete a science based PhD program ( and many who don’t get into med school do ) – would a med student from UIC be getting his MD from harvard? obviously not – but i gaurantee you he would have had no trouble getting into UIC for a phD program.
I earned my M.S. in biotech while completing my first 2 years of medical school, and worked with many PhD/MS students. Were some brilliant? yes. Did i feel that for the most part, they weren’t as smart as the average medical student? absolutely. Am i saying that there ARENT other post-grad students that are probably 100X smarter than their MD counterpart > no. obviously there are. i’m just speaking on my observations as a student, other peoples experiences are different. There are brilliant people in every field from literature to theatre and music that are obviously a trillion times smarter than their physician ; i’m just a firm believer that this isn’t the ‘norm’.
And miu miu, as far as doctors getting ‘hooked up’ with residencies or fellowships, no matter who your dad is – you have to pass your USMLE 1, 2, 3, and clinical, plus get board certified. This is a nationalized standard and is a very difficult standard, which is why we have 45 year old doctors from india/pakistan/africa/middle east who have taken their usmle step 1 10 times and havent been able to pass it. it’s a very very difficult path, and ‘knowing’ someone doesn’t go far in medicine.
Again, sorry if i’ve been crabby. had a rough week. I do truly respect and appreciate people from all walks, it just grinds my nerves after what i go through and people tell me that it’s just ‘memorizing’. we get less and less respect from our patients as well, it’s sad.
If someone’s jugular burst open right now and they went into cardiac arrest, i’d know what to do with a pen knife and a rag. that’s not something you can memorize.
“Now the doctors I know cannot talk about anything buy money and their job. I have to find one yet that has some literary knowledge, but might just be my sample.”
Try me. went to a top 20 school and minored in Lit/philosophy.
“You are a young man, and if you spend 5% of your trust every year, you will blow through it in 20 years and that would be sad. I’m not proposing an ascetic life devoid of pleasure. Just that with a few minor changes you can keep your financial cushion and even grow it.”
Ah yes i know that – i didn’t mean i use 5% of it every year ( don’t need nearly that much ) but that what I use coupled with how it’s invested will make a difference of 5% or so down the road when i don’t need to dip into it any longer. i’m not that spendy, not rolling around in a lambo and living at the elysian or anything, haha.
“If someone’s jugular burst open right now and they went into cardiac arrest, i’d know what to do with a pen knife and a rag. that’s not something you can memorize.”
Apparently doctors and modern medicine still by and large don’t know what to do when people go into cardiac arrest judging by mortality statistics.
“living at the elysian or anything”
Palmolive.
One thing I think we can all agree on–more pleasant discussion w/o Butterfield Road playing a role.
225 years ago physicians were using leeches and baths of mercury to cure diseases while the founding fathers were writing the constitution and the bill of rights.
“If someone’s jugular burst open right now and they went into cardiac arrest, i’d know what to do with a pen knife and a rag. that’s not something you can memorize.”
Dude for someone with philosophy minor your logic amazes me. That is a skill you have required as the sushi chef knows how to cut the fish. It is not an intellectual endeavor.
Oh and I prefer foreign doctors who came here with no connection and still managed to get to great residency programs over my friend whose daddy hooked her up first at Rush and then at Uchicago residency program. But that is my opinion and I might be entirely wrong on it. Let’s agree that we disagree : )
“Sorry, that’s not what medicine is like, it’s not an algorithm and patterns, as miumiu graciously puts it, if that was the case we’d have robots doing it. ”
It will be happening pretty soon if you ask me.
“225 years ago physicians were using leeches and baths of mercury to cure diseases while the founding fathers were writing the constitution and the bill of rights.”
Right. and 225 years later we have a treatment for nearly 99% of illnesses people get, and lawyers continue to get rich from divorces, lawsuits, and other generally worthless situations.
“Apparently doctors and modern medicine still by and large don’t know what to do when people go into cardiac arrest judging by mortality statistics”
Wow, good thing you pointed that out. i’ll make sure to mention that to my cardiac chief tomorrow, as he presented a case last week on how mortality from Myocardial infarctions is at an all time low current ACLS and Cardiology guidelines. must be some witchcraft involved.
There is very interesting research going on in medical imaging community and it seems machines are sometime beating the radiologist in cancer diagnosis on mammograms for instance.
Seriously, medical school has so much competition because there are so few residency slots available and so many of them go to foreign students. It’s not that hard to look at rashes and prescribe antibiotics, pain meds and cholestrol medicine all day. Sure, some doctors perform surgery, that requires skill, but so does fixing transmissions – they too have thousands of moving mechanical parts.
Actually medical profession is a very well protected mafia. Doctors artificially limit the acceptance rate to residency programs to keep their salaries high and prevent what happened say in India where they have to export superfluous doctors.
“it will be happening pretty soon if you ask me”
No, it won’t. Machines that pick up on densities on mammograms that a radiologist can’t catch by eyesight are nothing new – there is much more intricacy involved in pathology and cancer diagnosis beyond simple mammograms that we can never, ever train a machine to do. Nor will we be able to train a robot to do surgery ( not every person is the same ) or as you said; ‘create’ a treatment plan for a patient tailored to their individual risk factors. you’re just being silly now.
Dude illnesses are cured mostly because of drug discovery, immunization,…all done by scientist. Now look at cancer: you think oncologists have done much? The advances are all from the drugs. The field still remains as an adhoc practice of playing with doses and hoping some line of treatment works. Get real.
Hey I’m not saying my job is complex either. I do a variety of different things and all are pretty easy. The only real ‘skill’ I have is that I can sort through massive amounts of data and facts and pick out the relevant information. And even that comes naturally to me.
What impresses me? Quantum physics. Computer scientists. Scientists.
“So hows it feel to have just learned that a lawyer knocked up your mom. Heck, all our moms… Wow.. I just now understand why half the time i can be such a bastard.”
Yeah, that’s what came to mind, though I strongly suspected anonny would go where he did (don’t you have to take a pledge to be good natured about lawyers jokes as part of the bar application?). On a 5 person lifeboat or desert island, I think legal training is pretty expendable.
“There is very interesting research going on in medical imaging community and it seems machines are sometime beating the radiologist in cancer diagnosis on mammograms for instance.”
I was just wondering about that. Hard to believe machines won’t take over more of that narrow specialized function (which is not to necessarily say all of the function).
The lawyer-doctor sparring is (modestly) entertaining.
“Nor will we be able to train a robot to do surgery”
Do you read anything Riz or you live under the stone. I have one word for you telesurgery.
“Computer scientists.”
You mean EEs, I expect.
At least HD is fair and not delusional.
“Seriously, medical school has so much competition because there are so few residency slots available and so many of them go to foreign students. It’s not that hard to look at rashes and prescribe antibiotics, pain meds and cholestrol medicine all day. Sure, some doctors perform surgery, that requires skill, but so does fixing transmissions – they too have thousands of moving mechanical parts.”
No. this is absolutely 100% wrong. it is rare to get a residency as a foreign grad nowadays ( except for the insanely crappy ones on probation that nobody wants ). Medical school is competitive because it is an insanely large amount of information to process and apply. Even with the high standards only 96% of american graduates ever pass their board examinations and become MD’s. Very few doctors have time to look at rashes, prescribe antibiotics, and hang out and look at cholesterol levels. Even your family practice docs are relying on nurses to do these things as there are many more complex issues with patients. Seriously, everyone’s lack of understanding of medicine is blowing me away. It’s not easy people. It’s just not.
“At least HD is fair and not delusional.”
I looked hard for the hidden text between the “l” and the period, but couldn’t find it. Someone who did, please fill me in.
TIA!
“Do you read anything Riz or you live under the stone. I have one word for you telesurgery.”
Are you dense? who do you think operates the robots? Telesurgery isn’t a robot performing the surgery – this will never, EVER happen. you always need a doc to do the job. it’s simply progression of technology ; using a machine to make incisions and retractions is cleaner, but the surgeon is controlling every single move the machine makes.
“The field still remains as an adhoc practice of playing with doses and hoping some line of treatment works. ”
It’s going to take a lot of time, many more centuries, for the entire profession to overcome millennia of quacks, hacks and shamen.
As a side note from someone actually in the field; machines will play a HUGE role in the future of medicines. they will be used during colon surgery, heart surgery, and possibly even plastic surgery – but they will always need an operator to control them. It has nothing to do with machines doing a physicians job. simply a more advanced tool to use.
“as you said; ‘create’ a treatment plan for a patient tailored to their individual risk factors. you’re just being silly now.”
There is huge NIH studies and funding for optimization folks that decide when to intervene say in case of cancer and so on. Again it is mathematicians, albeit applied ones, helping doctors when to do what. As a cue go check Mariel Lavieri’s research work. She is an assistant Prof in OR department of UMich. Check some of her work on prostate cancer treatment.
“Now look at cancer: you think oncologists have done much? The advances are all from the drugs. The field still remains as an adhoc practice of playing with doses and hoping some line of treatment works. Get real.”
Right. nobody said the MD’s are sitting around creating drugs. they’d be much much richer if that was the case. Who has to diagnose the cancer? what use is your drug if you don’t know what type of cancer I have and what the treatment guidelines tailored to my specific illness and comorbidities are? you call this adhoc? Oncology is more successful today than ever, this has both to do with drugs and treatment from the physician.
“Are you dense? ”
Nope you are. As the robots get better and better an operator with very little practical skill can operate them and hence surgeons will become obsolete.
Any ways I like you Riz but you have to work on your notions of self grandeur.
.
They never thought that computers would be able to do discovery document review either and now that’s happening too. It’s all going overseas. Someday I’m going to log into my computer, talk to my doctor in india via webcam, explain to him my symptoms and he’ll order a script of levaquin to my nearest pharmacy. And he’ll charge $20.00 for everything and be happy to make that. Everything can be outsourced except parking valets and politicans.
Actually radiology is already being out sourced. When it is night in US and day time in say Asia, Indian doctors read the xrays and make the diagnosis.
“Nope you are. As the robots get better and better an operator with very little practical skill can operate them and hence surgeons will become obsolete.
Any ways I like you Riz but you have to work on your notions of self grandeur”
Honestly, im done arguing, but i have to say i’m truly truly saddened by your opinion. Normally stuff doesn’t get to me on here unless it’s blatant anti-semitism or racism, but someone actually believing that a operator with little skill can perform invasive surgery through a robot; and replace a surgeon/doctor with intimate knowledge of human anatomy and physiology – i just can’t register this level of insult to my profession, and i’m not even a surgeon. This is frankly absurd. I’m done, patients like you are what makes me regret my decision to be a physician, every . single. day. Just didn’t expect it from someone educated.
Adios.
“what use is your drug if you don’t know what type of cancer I have and what the treatment guidelines tailored to my specific illness and comorbidities are?”
Given the existence of treatment guidelines, isn’t it a pretty straightforward process? A few years ago I was helping a family member out and read a lot about his particular cancer. I was somewhat surprised at how the guidelines that applied to his situation were sometimes based on relatively little evidence (not that the recommendations seemed wrong but stated too stronger perhaps). Also surprised that the underlying studies were a little sloppy statistically.
DZ,
depends on so many factors. Treatment is a lot more straightforward for hodkins lymphoma or AML than it is for pancreatic or metastatic breast cancer, meningiomas, glioblastomas, etc. Also depends on the hospital. You’re much more likely to get tailored and ‘cutting edge’ treatment at a place like northwestern or Uchicago than if you’re being treated at cook, where the doc’s resources and time are pretty shriveled up.
“Treatment is a lot more straightforward for hodkins lymphoma or AML than it is for pancreatic or metastatic breast cancer, meningiomas, glioblastomas, etc.”
Fair enough, was renal cell, which (at the time at least) had no recommended adjuvant treatment, and issues I was looking at was mostly straightforward ones of partial v radical, and open v laparoscopic. Was not overly thrilled with NMH. U of C guy told us to go to Cleveland Clinic, which is where we ended up and went well (besides having to be Cleveland, especially that part of hte city).
“Wow, good thing you pointed that out. i’ll make sure to mention that to my cardiac chief tomorrow, as he presented a case last week on how mortality from Myocardial infarctions is at an all time low current ACLS and Cardiology guidelines. must be some witchcraft involved.”
I thought you’d at least be smart enough to realize that cardiac arrest is a specific kind of Myocardial infection. Maybe working all those hours has dumbed you down.
“specific kind of Myocardial infection”
Heh.
“Heh.”
This place ain’t the MCAT.
Maybe if he spent more time on butterfield road instead of spybar he’d know the difference. just kidding.
“This place ain’t the MCAT.”
Right back atcha.
‘cardiac arrest is a specific kind of myocardial infection..’
Right. Should i even go there? I’m fully aware it’s a subtype and often sequelae of myocardial infarction. just stating that in general all deaths from MI ( when people often die from V-fib or cardiac arrest, not the MI itself, duh ) are at an all time low.
‘ butterfield road instead of spybar ‘
You’re right, but i’ve been spending my random free nights at the aviary though. spybar is very college..isn’t it?
Riz all I am talking about it is the trend. I am not saying it will happen immediately or anything and I have tremendous respect for field of medicine. I did not mean to upset you. Sorry I am sleepless too so forgot to be more considerate.
“As the robots get better and better an operator with very little practical skill can operate them and hence surgeons will become obsolete.”
Uhh no – as someone who performs procedures all day everyday – I can tell you that no two patients are the same (slight differences in anatomy, different medical/psychological needs) – a robot won’t be able to figure these subtle differences out. Also, no algorithm or robot is going to help you when someone is bleeding to death in front of you and you have to not only figure out where it is coming from but also treat it (within minutes otherwise the person dies). It is an extremely exciting field – but not for everyone.
Miumiu, no worries. everyone has been a bit on edge.
Clio – didn’t know you were involved in interventional rads. that explains a lot more of where the initial $$ came from, haha.
hahahaha,
Doctors egos bruise so easily, its like their inflated heads all have glass jaws.