How Many Offers Will This 4-Bedroom Lakeview House Receive? 1524 W. Oakdale
This 4-bedroom single family home at 1524 W. Oakdale in Lakeview came on the market last week.
I’ve been told that it had several offers within the first 24 hours.
I’ve also heard that demand to see it was so strong that there was simply an open house on Sunday for all interested parties and that “best and final” offers were due on Sunday night.
Why is it so special?
It’s the only 4-bedroom single family home listed under $800,000 in the Burley school district.
Location, location, location!
It also has the features lots of buyers are looking for.
It’s on a standard Chicago lot measuring 25×125 and has a two car garage.
This house has its front door on the main level with the family room and a bedroom on that level.
The living/dining/kitchen are on the second level, along with another bedroom and then the master bedroom and a second bedroom are on the top floor.
The kitchen is newer with cherry cabinets, granite counter tops and stainless steel appliances.
The master bedroom has cathedral ceilings and there are skylights.
The house previously sold in 2007 for $830,000. It’s listed at $775,000.
Will the bidding war push the final sales price over the 2007 price?
(And yes- I expect it to be under contract as of today.)
Stephanie Cutter at Coldwell Banker has the listing. See the pictures here.
1524 W. Oakdale: 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, no square footage listed, 2 car garage
- Sold in September 1994 for $334,000
- Sold in April 1999 for $480,000
- Sold in July 2007 for $830,000
- Originally listed in February 2013 for $775,000
- Under contract shortly???
- Taxes of $10,900
- Central Air
- Bedroom #1: 17×12 (third floor)
- Bedroom #2: 14×10 (third floor)
- Bedroom #3: 15×10 (second floor)
- Bedroom #4: 12×9 (main floor)
- Family room: 21×12 (main floor)
I was there this weekend and the agent had let me know they’d received several offers already but were not going to make a decision until after this weekends showings. I’m sure they received several more.
So, you buy this home to be in Burley then what happens when your kid gets to high school? It seems like a big bet to bank on a selective enrollment school when you can get a larger home with a larger lot in the near suburbs for less or same cost as this.
I really am a city lover, but if I had kids and the choice between this home and many in the near burbs I would have a hard time justifying this home I think.
It is a nice place though….other than entering into the basement.
It’s not just this house. Everything is selling in record time. It’s crazy out here. Couldn’t even get in to see 2 $1.2 MM+ condos in the Pinnacle before they went under contract. Stuff that wouldn’t sell just a few months ago is going under contract now with the same list price. Everything I bid on these days is multiple bids.
I’m just waiting for realtors to start bragging about what a great job they are doing with their listings but the reality is that in this environment a trained monkey could sell a properly priced home. The bigger question is why is stuff priced so low that it gets this kind of attention? If it goes under contract in 48 hours you’re not getting good price discovery.
What I find so ironic is that 10 years ago (maybe even 5) people would have been using Burley school as an example of why this location, outside of being too close to Ashland, was awful.
It certainly does add fuel to the fire/argument that investing and improving in CPS pays huge dividends for the City’s tax base as a whole.
“other than entering into the basement.”
Umm, that’s piano nobile to you.
“I really am a city lover, but if I had kids and the choice between this home and many in the near burbs I would have a hard time justifying this home I think.”
I agree. If you work in the Loop, this place isn’t that convenient for public transportation. You’re probably looking at a 35-45 minute commute from here via the Brown Line or a combination of bus/Brown Line. In this price point, you could buy a nice place in Evanston, OP/RF and La Grange and have a similar commute time-wise and no worries about high school.
This low inventory and the apparent frenzy it seems to be creating makes me glad that I’m waiting at least another year to buy. I’m willing to risk a higher interest rate if it means having a better inventory of choices.
Oak Park seems to be heating up as well. There have been a few homes in my neighborhood that went under contract pretty much immediately.
That place on Armitage we chatted about a couple weeks ago is under contract. Bubble here we come!
“This low inventory and the apparent frenzy it seems to be creating makes me glad that I’m waiting at least another year to buy. I’m willing to risk a higher interest rate if it means having a better inventory of choices.”
Given the dynamics I don’t see how prices can’t go up from here so you’re probably looking at higher prices also – but that’s no reason to buy now. If you look at the Case Shiller index for other cities you will see that many cities are already up 10% from a year ago. Chicago is lagging – for now.
This is in a fantastic neighborhood, I loved when I rented a place near here and I’d live here 10 out of 10 times over Oak Park, River Forest, North Shore, pretty much anywhere, there really is no comparison. It stinks I can’t afford an 800k house 🙁
Only issue is that its kind of a hike to the brown line from here, but worth it to get some solitude and nice tree lined streets and quiet (for the city at least)
Really interesting how this is playing out now. There is still a huge issue with negative equity preventing a lot of people from selling which in turn is creating a shortage of inventory. Most of the people in negative equity situations can still afford their properties but not the losses they would take if they sold. Only people selling are those with significant equity positions or the liquidity to take the price hit (write a check at closing).
It will be interesting to see how this unfolds over the next couple of years. Will life catch up with those too far underwater and they eventually dump the place? Will developers see an opportunity to put more units on the market? Will rising rates have any impact? The crystal ball is foggy…
I’ve started seeing some sellers getting above asking price… interesting times indeed.
“Only issue is that its kind of a hike to the brown line from here”
thats really your only issue? come on your a cribchattererererer you should know better. lets start
1. whats the deal with the below grade Entrance? yeah stop by my house but come in through the basement?
2. why yes i did pay 800k for a house with vinyl siding
3. Well we did put in dormers to give us more space in the attic (2nd floor) but our budget ran out so we skipped on the side windows
4. certainly we did build a deck off the kitchen and put our grill there. oh the budget was tight so we passed on the the deck stairs to the back yard. your welcome to walk out our basment to get to the back yard.
5. by far we found that track lighting in 3rd bedrooms are certainly acceptable
6. and if you could do me a favor, on your way out since your have to go through the basement could you toss my laundry in the dryer.
The question is whether or not it is worth trying to buy now at a slightly inflated price, or waiting until others start dumping and get a better deal; but risking a higher rate which may offset such a deal.
Meanwhile huge private equity firms like Blackstone and others are pouring billions into buying up foreclosed homes and renting them, which may apparently dissolve some of that “shadow inventory” that many housing bears love to mention. With lending getting more restrictive, I understand why they’re making such investments.
“It certainly does add fuel to the fire/argument that investing and improving in CPS pays huge dividends for the City’s tax base as a whole.”
Well stated. The direct correlation between quality of schools and property taxes is evident outside of Cook County as well. You’d think that these private equity firms would pour some some chump change (a few million) into the schools in the neighborhoods in which they’re investing.
what is the problem/issue with vinyl siding?
Agree with other posters that this location, aside from the fact that it is in Lakeview, is not particularly enticing. Too far from easy transit downtown, too far from the lake and too close to Ashland. No where very interesting to walk to from here.
Groove,
Below-grade entrances are common throughout Lincoln Park and Lakeview. For older homes, it reflects that the city streets were actually lifted in the 1800s to help prevent flooding. People just “built down” a new first floor, partly below grade, to compensate. From then on, it became a style even for new homes not affected by the rise in streets.
“what is the problem/issue with vinyl siding?”
Nothing, really. In fact, in the working-class rust belt inner-burb where I grew up, most of the nicer 3 bed/1 bath houses seemed to upgrade to vinyl siding in the early 80’s. We did.
“It will be interesting to see how this unfolds over the next couple of years. Will life catch up with those too far underwater and they eventually dump the place? Will developers see an opportunity to put more units on the market? Will rising rates have any impact? The crystal ball is foggy…”
Outside of inflation (which seems inevitable at some point), I’m not sure what else would drive up prices besides the lack of inventory. Most people have to save up a down payment because they either don’t have equity in their house, or they have to use a chunk of their savings to sell their underwater house, or they have been renting. Plus, student loan debt is going to drag down an entire generation’s buying power. Couple that with retiring boomers trying to unload their homes, and it seems like a recipe for a large inventory and stagnant (or perhaps declining) prices.
Or maybe inflation will just blow everything out of the water.
Here’s my perspective as a former property owner and current renter: I’ve decided to take the “old fashioned” approach to buying real estate: save 20% for down payment + another 5% for expenses, and buy something below my means in the best location where my family can put down roots for 20 years. I’m not going to let “LOW LOW RATES!” and “OMG HURRY UP AND BUY!” craziness sway me into buying before I’m ready. The lessons of the bust will stick with me forever and have permanently changed my approach to personal finance (for the better).
“This is in a fantastic neighborhood, I loved when I rented a place near here and I’d live here 10 out of 10 times over Oak Park, River Forest, North Shore, pretty much anywhere, there really is no comparison”
Wow, I’m the complete opposite. This neighborhood is completely desolate. If I’m living in the city I want to see people and hear noise. Different strokes for different folks.
BE –
Great post! I agree with you about student loan debt and baby boomer sales keeping pressure on the housing market. I think the current bubble in housing reflects pent-up demand after a few years of economic weakness, as well as the extremely low interest rates, but I believe this is a transitory event, and that the pressure on prices will remain because of the macro issues you cited. Same for the stock market, for that matter.
Your perspective on buying a home is also one I’d subscribe to if I were currently in the market to buy (I’m a long-time owner who’s not going anywhere in quite a while, at least I hope). Seems like when you do buy, it will be for good reasons and in a responsible manner.
“The lessons of the bust will stick with me forever and have permanently changed my approach to personal finance (for the better).”
Smart philosophy. Sadly, you, Dan #2 and myself are probably in the minority on that one. And for the sake of ever selling my underwater condo, I kinda hope so. 😀
Vinyl Siding
It’s like a nice pair of Lee jeans from Walmart. Cheap, durable and supremely ugly. It’s for the crowd that buy’s new jeans when the old pair “wears out”.
Groove, my issue was only with the neighborhood, this house… um… yeah… obviously has some issues.
As for the noise of the city, I live in RN near the el and the feeder, so I know a lot about noise! nothing wrong with it, but as I get older I might want a quieter home. Not this one, as if I’m spending nearly a million bucks it will be brick and not below grade, but yeah… anyways
“as I get older I might want a quieter home”
And you might not care to live in a neighborhood like this. When I was your age I would have loved to live here, now not so much (actually not at all).
So what’s the alternative to vinyl siding? alumninum?
“what is the problem/issue with vinyl siding?”
nothing is wrong with it. a perfectly acceptable, durable, and almost maintenence free solution that comes in a array of colors now and is not prone to fading like it used to.
but the rub is it cheap looking and really if your paying 800k for a home vinyl sidding is not acceptable. (pay 400k and less its standard)
“So what’s the alternative to vinyl siding? alumninum?”
Pine, cedar if you can afford it, or redwood good if you can afford it and i think is harder/denser too and doesnt expand and shrink as much as the others.
yes more maintenance and only a tad more work to water proof behind it but it looks beautiful and with a good paint can be gorgeous!
BE (February 19, 2013, 10:34 am) “Outside of inflation (which seems inevitable at some point), I’m not sure what else would drive up prices besides the lack of inventory.”
Value. It is cheaper to own than rent in Chicago (with the typical caveats of holding period / transaction costs) and many are realizing that and purchasing. All the properties I see that are pricing at 2005-8 levels are higher end 3BR+ and those are being purchased as owner occupied. The 2/2s are a different story and are more the domain of the investors. I don’t think we’ll see a return to the bubble days in the 2/2s. I don’t follow the low end market – only GZ properties. While the economy might be hurting for the lower income ranges the upper brackets are doing fine.
“what is the problem/issue with vinyl siding?”
Apart from uggo?
“So what’s the alternative to vinyl siding? alumninum?”
“Pine, cedar if you can afford it, or redwood good if you can afford it and i think is harder/denser too and doesnt expand and shrink as much as the others.”
Hardieboard right? Isn’t that the default somewhat premium siding used?
““So what’s the alternative to vinyl siding? alumninum?”
Pine, cedar if you can afford it, or redwood ”
Hardie board.
“Value. It is cheaper to own than rent in Chicago”
incorrect, in some areas it is cheaper to rent than own. in others its cheaper to own than rent
“Apart from uggo?”
It may not be the Megan Fox of house coating but I don’t think it’s horrible looking at all.
“Hardieboard right?”
thats another, IMO not as pretty as real wood as the grain is “faked”. i dont know the cost of it compared to the others? and dont think its maitenance free like vinyl
hey are they doing MDF siding yet? i know MDF is all the rage in decks porches now
“It may not be the Megan Fox of house coating but I don’t think it’s horrible looking at all”
doode maegan fox is so 2009, get with the times man. or at least throw out your august 2007 edition of maxim mag and get a new one.
“The direct correlation between quality of schools and property taxes is evident outside of Cook County as well. You’d think that these private equity firms would pour some some chump change (a few million) into the schools in the neighborhoods in which they’re investing.”
I’m going to throw a turd on the table here and then go away for a few hours and see what havoc I have wreaked. Can you really throw money at a school and improve it? Or does an “improving” (higher income, more native English speaking students, higher parental involvement, lower truancy) neighborhood result in better schools?
“““So what’s the alternative to vinyl siding? alumninum?”
Don’t forget the cribchatter favorite, asphalt roll!
“doode maegan fox is so 2009, get with the times man”
2009 is when I met my wife. I haven’t looked at another woman since
“2009 is when I met my wife. I haven’t looked at another woman since”
oh i get it she reads CC huh?
“It may not be the Megan Fox of house coating but I don’t think it’s horrible looking at all.”
+
“2009 is when I met my wife. I haven’t looked at another woman since”
=
???[!]
“Can you really throw money at a school and improve it?”
Sometimes, in many ways, and most times, in some ways.
“Or does an “improving” … neighborhood result in better schools?”
Sometimes, but explain Bucktown.
“dont think [hardie board] maitenance free like vinyl”
http://www.homeadvisor.com/article.show.Pros-Cons-and-Costs-Hardie-Board-Siding.15726.html
Looks like you need to paint it about every 15 years. *almost* a feature rather than a bug, in that you aren’t stuck with the color forever, like vinyl.
So, it looks better, is more durable and is amenable to changing the color w/o a complete redo. Of course, it is a lot more expensive on the front end.
“Sometimes, but explain Bucktown.”
I haven’t paid much attention lately, but schools (pulaski, burr) are “better” at least terms of test scores I would guess. Prob not as much improved as other places but I have come across some pulaski boosters. If anyone knows why the pulaski principal left, I am (purely idly) curious.
“Of course, it is a lot more expensive on the front end.”
What is ballpark upfront cost versus vinyl on a place like this?
the outside is ugly as hell, and the inside looks like a cheapy re-do.
If the market pays 800k for this POS, I will be a renter for a while… /:
“oh i get it she reads CC huh?”
on occasion. It boggles her mind how much time we spend here chatting about everything under the sun except the featured property.
“or redwood good if you can afford it and i think is harder/denser too and doesnt expand and shrink as much as the others.”
Gee, great idea, let’s cut down a redwood so some yuppie/hipster urban liberal doesn’t have to have vinyl siding. Real “green”.
“Or does an “improving” (higher income, more native English speaking students, higher parental involvement, lower truancy) neighborhood result in better schools?”
Test scores are related to IQ, not the “money” thrown in there. When higher-IQ parents who can afford $800K plus houses send their kids to CPS, the test scores go up with or without any additional money.
I definitely wouldn’t say common, but they aren’t altogether rare in the southern half of LP. But Lake View, no way. Lake View’s building boom was after the Fire, the raising of the streets was a few decades earlier (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raising_of_Chicago).
And regardless, a “style”? No… it was a forced necessity, in the areas affected (I think the 1800 block of Sheffield comes to mind) your front door was suddenly below grade, people just dealt with it, & I’d wager that in most cases, adding a front porch/stairs was the route taken.
You may confusing the streets being raised with a more common practice of raising a house and adding the proverbial “Polish flat” unit when you had a real foundation dug and basement poured.
“Below-grade entrances are common throughout Lincoln Park and Lakeview. For older homes, it reflects that the city streets were actually lifted in the 1800s to help prevent flooding. People just “built down” a new first floor, partly below grade, to compensate. From then on, it became a style even for new homes not affected by the rise in streets.”
Recent events indicate it’s not so much the City throwing money at schools as it is more upper middle class people investing directly with their time, energy and yes, money/donations.
“I’m going to throw a turd on the table here and then go away for a few hours and see what havoc I have wreaked. Can you really throw money at a school and improve it? Or does an “improving” (higher income, more native English speaking students, higher parental involvement, lower truancy) neighborhood result in better schools?”
“Recent events indicate it’s not so much the City throwing money at schools as it is more upper middle class people investing directly with their time, energy and yes, money/donations.”
That’s a factor, but the biggest factor is those parents above have higher-IQs and their kids inherit that DNA. Don’t they start standardized testing in the 2nd grade? You can see by then the test scores are already up, and that’s due to DNA, not the “school” they’ve barely attended, or money thrown there.
If this location is weak (which I agree with), then what does that say about all the new houses, rowhouses, THs, located west of Ashland, north and south of Diversey on Paulina/Mashfield etc.?
“Lake View’s building boom was after the Fire”
The history museum had a Lincoln Park exhibit a couple years ago. Among the things they had was a sales poster for the lots from Lincoln to Ravenswood, Belmont to Ashland. One of the big selling points was that it was outside city limits and therefore fire codes, so you could build a wood house.
“If this location is weak (which I agree with), then what does that say about all the new houses, rowhouses, THs, located west of Ashland, north and south of Diversey on Paulina/Mashfield etc.?”
It’s weak but not crappy. People want to live there, they just don’t want to pay a lot. I’m sure you know that. That’s why the house is only listed at 775 and probably won’t go over 8.
“What I find so ironic is that 10 years ago (maybe even 5) people would have been using Burley school as an example of why this location, outside of being too close to Ashland, was awful.”
Definitely not 5 and I’m doubtful about 10. 5 years ago, Burley was among the top schools (along with Blaine, Bell, Lincoln, etc). Nettlehorst was just starting to turn around, same with Coonley. Hamilton was almost closed in ’09, etc. Burley was a big plus, not a minus.
cemement fiber boards look good and they don’t crack/split like unmaintained cedar.
Vinyl is not even in the same ballpark.
“Definitely not 5 and I’m doubtful about 10.”
10 years ago, Burley was in the process of turning. *definitely* not on the green list then. Probably not “awful”, but certainly not a plus factor yet.
“Looks like you need to paint it about every 15 years. *almost* a feature rather than a bug, in that you aren’t stuck with the color forever, like vinyl.”
thats not bad, and i like the fact you can paint it.
I would assume that painting it you wouldnt sand it down to the “wood” and paint, so you just layering over the first coat. you would loose the imprinted grain look but for no maintenance option thats not vinyl i like it!
10 years ago, Burley was in the process of turning. *definitely* not on the green list then. Probably not “awful”, but certainly not a plus factor yet.
in 2002, Burley had 70% of students meeting and exceeding state tests
in 2012 it had 96%
“thats not bad, and i like the fact you can paint it.”
Let’s be honest, I’m not the one who will be doing the painting, i’m hiring Groovy so I hope his rates are reasonable and his skill with a brush professional.
“in 2002, Burley had 70% of students meeting and exceeding state tests
in 2012 it had 96%”
What are burr and pulaski numbers if you have handy?
I lived down the street from Burley from 97-02, it was most definitely not considered an asset in terms of real estate/guaranteed admission.
I’d say this confirms 5 years is about right for the turnaround:
http://www.schooldigger.com/go/IL/schools/0993000632/school.aspx
Whether it was better than many other CPS schools at that time is a different story altogether, of course. Hamilton is in that camp, in that it’s (rightfully) perceived as up-and-coming and a safe, healthy school. People who obsess over test scores are only seeing part of the story in terms of drivers.
It is an interesting study in gentrification cause-and-effect, though. Some schools do seem to take much, much longer to show improvement, even when property values are high.
Getting back to the whole real estate-CPS connection, it is baffling how long Agassiz stayed as an underperformer:
http://www.schooldigger.com/go/IL/schools/0993000763/school.aspx
That would have been my local school, and it seems to have lagged gentrification by a solid 20 years, especially when compared to Burley.
The reason why your opinions are equivalent in value to bungholes is that schools don’t get to restrict admission by either DNA or IQ. Even if you are correct, it would be a completely pointless observation, as there is no logical solution it offers for the system as a whole.
It’s like saying a bigger factor in a student’s success is whether they actually attend classes and do their homework, file that under “No shit, Sherlock”
“That’s a factor, but the biggest factor is those parents above have higher-IQs and their kids inherit that DNA. Don’t they start standardized testing in the 2nd grade? You can see by then the test scores are already up, and that’s due to DNA, not the “school” they’ve barely attended, or money thrown there.”
In 2002, Burr had 48% of students meeting and exceeding state tests and in 2012 it had 86%.
In 2002, Pulaski had 44% of students meeting and exceeding state tests and in 2012 it had 86%.
“I’d say this confirms 5 years is about right for the turnaround:”
Fits with my long held view that the tipping point for Northside and NW Side schools is getting free/reduced lunch below 50%; Burley went under 50% in ’07, and has gone down each year since.
Note that Agassiz was apparently still over 50% last year.
Agassiz went from 47% of students meeting and exceeding state tests in 2002 to 87% in 2012.
Wow – that % Free / Reduced Lunch chart really shows the gentrification of the hood. From 64% to 24% in 7 years even in the face of a recession!
“Note that Agassiz was apparently still over 50% last year.”
Latest figures show 47% low income for Agassiz.
It depends, as there are likely a substantial number of students who are being bussed in/who otherwise live out of the area.
I’d say if you polled actual residents of Agassiz’ attendance area you’d find nowhere near even 24% qualifying as low income.
“Wow – that % Free / Reduced Lunch chart really shows the gentrification of the hood. From 64% to 24% in 7 years even in the face of a recession!”
“Latest figures show 47% low income for Agassiz.”
I was commenting on Burley – I should have been more clear.
problem with school digger is the stats dont paint a correct picture. example of student to teacher ratio of 20, when in reality the schools class size is 31 kids per class.
“It’s not just this house. Everything is selling in record time. It’s crazy out here. Couldn’t even get in to see 2 $1.2 MM+ condos in the Pinnacle before they went under contract. Stuff that wouldn’t sell just a few months ago is going under contract now with the same list price. Everything I bid on these days is multiple bids.
I’m just waiting for realtors to start bragging about what a great job they are doing with their listings but the reality is that in this environment a trained monkey could sell a properly priced home. The bigger question is why is stuff priced so low that it gets this kind of attention? If it goes under contract in 48 hours you’re not getting good price discovery.”
I am very frustrated with the market. We can’t even go see many of the places on the market right now in time. The lack of inventory is a real problem. Places with 3 to 4 bedrooms priced 5 to 10% below 2007 values are getting multiple bids and offers very quickly. It’s very difficult as a buyer, and we feel like you need to be unemployed to have the time at a moment’s notice to go see a property in the morning on a weekday.
I’ve heard developers comment that the 1500 block stretch from Wrightwood to the south up to Belmont on the north has poor soil stability in spots resulting from debris infill from after the Chicago fire. If you look, you can see some houses on various 1500 blocks that are leaning noticeably. The streets also dip noticeably at points, which is most apparent on 1500 block of Wolfram, and in some of the alleys. There is/was a vacant lot for sale on this block of Oakdale that specifically identified the poor soil conditions and requirements for a special foundation. Greenview and points east don’t seem to have the issue according to the guys who dig the holes.
“It’s very difficult as a buyer, and we feel like you need to be unemployed to have the time at a moment’s notice to go see a property in the morning on a weekday”
Too bad you missed your chance in 2010, 2011 and 2012…
“I’d say if you polled actual residents of Agassiz’ attendance area you’d find nowhere near even 24% qualifying as low income.”
I’m sure this is true. As people realize you don’t have to be a lemming and live in Napperville, CPS schools in desirable areas are becoming better and better. You are seeing the reverse in the suburbs.
“It’s very difficult as a buyer, and we feel like you need to be unemployed to have the time at a moment’s notice to go see a property in the morning on a weekday”
Not true – Just make a full priced offer with no contingencies by fax as soon as it prints. Who actually needs to see the property.
Welcome back Mr. and Mrs. Bubble. I have missed you!
I’m guessing special ed classes are pulling the average down considerably. Ah, statistics… they can say so many different things depending on how they are presented.
“problem with school digger is the stats dont paint a correct picture. example of student to teacher ratio of 20, when in reality the schools class size is 31 kids per class.”
I’m sure of it – come by my neck of the woods and there are multiple “Slanty Shanties” along Barry between Kedzie & Kimball. I’m amazed the one on the NE corner of Barry & Christiana is still standing.
“I’ve heard developers comment that the 1500 block stretch from Wrightwood to the south up to Belmont on the north has poor soil stability in spots resulting from debris infill from after the Chicago fire. If you look, you can see some houses on various 1500 blocks that are leaning noticeably. The streets also dip noticeably at points, which is most apparent on 1500 block of Wolfram, and in some of the alleys. There is/was a vacant lot for sale on this block of Oakdale that specifically identified the poor soil conditions and requirements for a special foundation. Greenview and points east don’t seem to have the issue according to the guys who dig the holes.”
“Too bad you missed your chance in 2010, 2011 and 2012…”
My guess is 2012 was the bottom. Not there will be any huge growth in prices, but I think we hit bottom last year.
“I’m guessing special ed classes are pulling the average down considerably. Ah, statistics… they can say so many different things depending on how they are presented.”
my bud over in jeff park the school right by him has a kindergarten class of 41 kids per class. looked on schooldigger and the school says the teacher to student ratio is 21.3
talk about stats not telling the real picture!
“Not there will be any huge growth in prices, but I think we hit bottom last year.”
I agree because with multiple offers prices don’t eventually go up. Instead sellers just look for improved terms and not improved prices…
RE:
“It’s very difficult as a buyer, and we feel like you need to be unemployed to have the time at a moment’s notice to go see a property in the morning on a weekday”
In winter of 2011 I was ready to buy and saw a great looking listing. My agent suggested that I schedule a visit over the weekend. I said “no– we’re gonna see it at lunch tomorrow”. My offer was in by 3PM that day. The rest is history.
Perhaps you need to act with more urgency.
I think the bottom of the market came just after HD bought his house.
@Groove – student-teacher ratio includes all teachers in a school, not just classroom. ie, the gym teacher, the music teacher, the art teacher, the computer teacher, special ed teacher, etc. So, 20:1 or 21:1 does *not* mean that class sizes are that low. If you want to know that, you’re better off looking at the CPS average/max class sizes that are in the utilization numbers published as part of the school closings process going on right now.
“In 2002, Burr had 48% of students meeting and exceeding state tests and in 2012 it had 86%.
In 2002, Pulaski had 44% of students meeting and exceeding state tests and in 2012 it had 86%.”
Someone please explain to bunghole-head skeptic that this was not the result of a marginal increase in money or “parental involvement” in the PTA. It’s due to the increased brain horsepower the newer students inherited from their parents. Such a simple thing to see.
“come by my neck of the woods and there are multiple “Slanty Shanties” along Barry between Kedzie & Kimball.”
Are you in the district with the Lorca school? ha ha!!
And… under contract!
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1524-W-Oakdale-Ave-60657/home/13365034
I bought about at the bottom for my burb. A house very similar recently came up for sale. They priced it nearly $50k more than I paid a year after I closed. We’ll see how fast it goes under k and what it sells for. If it sells for more than my house then I’ve already made money on paper.
The next mass round of layoffs will cause the millions of loan mods to again default reigniting the foreclosure crisis, and prices will drop again….2014, 2015?
There won’t be a mass round of layoffs, or at least not widely publicized by the media. Instead it will be a steady stream of “little” ones, on the order of 1-5k in the F500, continuously. Aside from the mortgage refi sector: I don’t see how they can avoid mass layoffs.
Its funny here on CC we talk about this insanely valued homes like this one on Oakdale like the bubble will go on forever. All it takes is a return to reasonable credit standards for getting these mortgages, and you’ll see the whole house of cards start to crumble starting with the entry level.
No rhyme or reason someone should be able to buy a 428k property in Cook County with 15k down, yet that’s all it has taken since the FHA has been around to hand out the gravy. And guess whose in financial trouble as of late? The FHA.
One need only ask one self two questions to determine the valuation of this house going forward:
1) Would this house have sold for 830k in 2007, a mere 8 years after it sold for 499k, with the same mortgage standards (especially downpayment) in place in 2007 that were there in 1999?
2) Does one think the current lax mortgage standards (vs. 1999) will remain lax going forward, get laxer, or tighten?
#2 is the 64k question. Hopefully the Tea Party gets in there and makes a ruckus out of the government subsidizing people living high on the hog.
The FHA and FHFA were raising their loan limits by _ten percent_ per year during the bubble, akin to a stock. Yet unlike a stock that corrects they’ve left their support for the market in place at peak pricing. Until they’re reigned in I don’t see a correction picking up steam in earnest.
“There won’t be a mass round of layoffs, or at least not widely publicized by the media. Instead it will be a steady stream of “little” ones, on the order of 1-5k in the F500, continuously.”
Bob, under most state laws these would have to be reported. I don’t know what the cut-off is in Illinois but it’s not that high.
We would see unemployment claims rising. So far, they are going the other way. Multi-year low. Fortune 500 are lean, mean machines right now. There’s not a lot of dead weight to get rid of that wasn’t already gotten rid of 5 years ago.
“I think the bottom of the market came just after HD bought his house.”
Has G been back on the site lately? His last appearance may have defined the bottom.
Regarding the schools. Just saw part of an interview with Michelle Rhee on Charlie Rose. Very impressive woman: http://www.studentsfirst.org/content
RE: “It’s very difficult as a buyer, and we feel like you need to be unemployed to have the time at a moment’s notice to go see a property in the morning on a weekday”
In winter of 2011 I was ready to buy and saw a great looking listing. My agent suggested that I schedule a visit over the weekend. I said “no– we’re gonna see it at lunch tomorrow”. My offer was in by 3PM that day. The rest is history.
Perhaps you need to act with more urgency.”
When I have to travel out of town 2-3 days per week it becomes difficult to schedule showings during the week. This lack of inventory is so annoying. Probably not like searching for a Manhattan apartment, but its getting up there.
“Has G been back on the site lately? His last appearance may have defined the bottom.”
You forget, Gary, that G actually left the site for at least a year (maybe more) in the 2010-2011 era (or thereabouts.) Was that the bottom too?
“@Groove – student-teacher ratio includes all teachers in a school, not just classroom”
thats what i was trying to point out with the schooldigger graphs. (not well apparently) that the numbers used to show the full picture. stats picked and compared can show any bias you would like (not saying school digger is trying for bias, more of an oversight)
” Just saw part of an interview with Michelle Rhee on Charlie Rose. Very impressive woman”
Doooode she is 100% a sociopath!!!
not that what she is doing isnt a needed thing, and there is a reason she has not been hired again and needed to create her students first organization just to feed her sociopath needs.
if you step through the magic fluff surrounding her from the media and get into the meat and potatoes you will see what i am talking about.
i was all about the rahmfather hiring her back when just became mayor, until somebody told me to really read into her tactics and her true “results” will actually shock you
It’s probably the best that schooldigger can do with what CPS usually publishes. The data CPS put out for the closing process with the min/avg/max class size per school may not be something they usually put out every year, but number of students and number of teachers would be.
“It’s probably the best that schooldigger can do with what CPS usually publishes”
or it could be the standard they use for all schools across all cities so the graph can pull the data uniformly across all without write a specific code for each district.
still a really cool tool if you take account that you still need more digging (pun intended) if you want the full overview.
“The data CPS put out for the closing process with the min/avg/max class size per school may not be something they usually put out every year”
The IL School Report Card (available thru link on CPS main webby for each school–search CPS [school name] [elementary/high school], should be on the first page of results) has the average class size at *every* grade level. Sure, it’s possible that a school has 3 first grade classes of 40, 40 and 1, so the average looks like a ‘not bad’ 27, but I somehow doubt that. Do have to figure out/guess how many classes per grade, based on total student population.
I think that these properties where you enter the lowest floor below grade are ugly ducklings, but the scuttlebutt in the hood is that this one is going to be well into the 8s. There’s a smaller place on Nelson that just sold for $740k. With the frenzy recently I could see someone paying $830k.
“With the frenzy recently I could see someone paying $830k.”
Makes sense. Still the place is ugly.
“I think that these properties where you enter the lowest floor below grade are ugly ducklings, but the scuttlebutt in the hood is that this one is going to be well into the 8s. There’s a smaller place on Nelson that just sold for $740k. With the frenzy recently I could see someone paying $830k.”
That’s impressive if it does. You’ve had a proper SFH’s a block a way sell for only 100k more only a year ago.
1431 Oakdale — 880,000
1453 Oakdale — 900,000
I haven’t seen either but 1886 converted apartments and single family builds circa 1990s are very different products. Plus you cannot see what you cannot see in the older converted frame houses.
Feel bad for buyers in this market. They totally missed the boat.
Re schools, I think people would be surprised how many of these families send their children to private schools and lend no consideration to the attendance area school regardless of the test scores.
“Re schools, I think people would be surprised how many of these families send their children to private schools and lend no consideration to the attendance area school regardless of the test scores.”
Not in Burley, Bell, Blaine, etc.
“Not in Burley, Bell, Blaine, etc.”
Obviously, JMM was right. You *would* be surprised.
“You’ve had a proper SFH’s a block a way sell for only 100k more only a year ago.”
I think that it’s a pretty different market compared to a year ago. People are lemmings when it comes to real estate. Now that everyone is getting back in, everyone wants back in, everyone’s doing it. I agree with you about the alternatives but I there’s currently a very strong little market in this area. I have heard about several unsolicited offers, at least one of which has led to a transaction.
“I think people would be surprised how many of these families send their children to private schools”
Most of the people who are doing this in Burley would be sending their kids to Catholic schools or the true elite private schools no matter what, and so it doesn’t matter how good the attendance area school is. Burley is pretty popular within the AA and most kids, even the ones of people who could afford otherwise without batting an eye, go there. Certainly higher than my experiences in other good AA school areas.
Maybe, but Burley had a student population of 349 in 2003, it’s 512 now.
Blaine had a student population of 493 in 2003, it’s 725 now.
Bell had a student population of 737 in 2003, it’s 984 now.
You almost can’t get into these schools unless you live in the attendance boundaries. The wait lists are huge.
Burley is 3.8% AA and 52% white. In 2002, it was 9% AA and 25% white.
“Not in Burley, Bell, Blaine, etc.”
Especially in Burley, Bell, Blaine (and Lincoln) etc.
In which neighborhoods do we believe the families that send their children to:
Latin
Parker
Lab
Sacred Heart
Chicago City Day
Catherine Cook
British
Saint Ignatius (+ insert the plethora of parochial options, given the neighborhood start with Alphonsus)
Actually live? News flash — Lincoln Park, Lake View and North Center in sub neighborhoods not unlike this one. You know, the same ones where 800k buys you a house built in 1886. Tends to correlate to people who feel its important to cut 20k+ annual private tuition checks.
Burley was 73% low income in 2002, now it’s 23%.
“Blaine had a student population of 493 in 2003, it’s 725 now.”
Okay, WTH are you getting your numbers?
Blaine is at 943 students this year (and was over 900 last year for sure, too). Bell = 986; Burley = 576.
Also, this is one of the fairly rarae occasions I agree 100% with JMM on a school thing: CLEARLY you all are surprised by how many in these neighborhoods send their kids to private school.
“Burley is 3.8% AA”
J3 (out of court and back on the chatter that quick?) meant Attendance Area.
http://iirc.niu.edu/School.aspx?source=About_Students&source2=Enrollments&schoolID=150162990252104&level=S
Excludes PreK, sorry.
“CLEARLY you all are surprised by how many in these neighborhoods send their kids to private school.”
Kids don’t have any neighborhood cohesion, friendships, can’t walk out the door and hang out with friends, etc. Why do people think it’s so important to raise kids in the city, pay $800K for improper SFH?
Helmut, where do your kids go to school?
“You almost can’t get into these schools unless you live in the attendance boundaries. The wait lists are huge.”
I’ve heard that it’s not almost can’t, it’s can’t in the last 2 years. None of them have taken any out of boundary (with the obvious exception of Bell’s RGC and Special Ed, of course).
“Excludes PreK, sorry”
Are there really 180(+) prek kids at Blaine? Wow!
“Excludes PreK, sorry.”
60 for PreK sounds right, 20 in the all day tuition based, 2×20 in the half-day preschool for all.
“60 for PreK sounds right, 20 in the all day tuition based, 2×20 in the half-day preschool for all.”
Blaine has 3 PreK for all classes and 2 tuition based, so yes, 180 PreK.
Vlajos posted “Helmut, where do your kids go to school?”
I ask ” Dan, where did you go to school since you boast being a ‘highly educated’ Chicago area native?”
sorry my comment wasn’t clear, the 60 I was talking about is Burley. (1 each of pfa and tbpk)
“since you boast being a ‘highly educated’ Chicago area native?”
that does not compute