Lake and Millennium Park Views for $64K Under the 2005 Price: 130 N. Garland in the Heritage

We last chattered about a short sale in The Heritage, the high rise at 130 N. Garland in the Loop in 2008.

130-n-garland-approved.jpg

It wasn’t the last of the short sales, however, as this 3-bedroom unit recently came back on the market as a short sale after having been on and off the market since August 2008.

The northeast corner unit has lake and Millennium Park views.

The kitchen has granite counter tops and black appliances.

There are hardwood floors throughout the main living area.

Unit #2901, the same floorplan, is also currently on the market and is asking $280,750 more ten floors below this short sale unit.

Is this a deal?

Dana Surcell at Onix Realty has the listing. See the pictures here.

Unit #3901: 3 bedrooms, 3 baths, 2157 square feet

  • Sold in October 2005 for $1,003,500
  • Originally listed in August 2008 for $1,369,000
  • Reduced several times
  • Was listed in July 2010 for $1,249,000
  • Lis pendens filed in August 2010
  • Currently listed as a “short sale” at $939,000 (1 deeded parking space included)
  • Assessments of $1005 a month (includes doorman, pool)
  • Taxes of $12600
  • Central Air
  • Washer/Dryer in the unit
  • Bedroom #1: 13×14
  • Bedroom #2: 11×16
  • Bedroom #3: 10×12

153 Responses to “Lake and Millennium Park Views for $64K Under the 2005 Price: 130 N. Garland in the Heritage”

  1. Still seems expensive to me when you compare it to other building in the neighborhood. The Joffrey Ballet at 8 E randolph lists at about 300/sq ft. Many of the units at 6 N Michigan also list around $350/sq ft. Both of those are new constructions with better build-outs in my opinion. I also think 340 on the Park is a far nicer building and you can find units at this price.

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  2. This place is far from special. There are many downtown / new east side places that are far cheaper, newer, and with more to offer than this unit. This place is destined for a price cut or forclosure.

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  3. The Heritage is an established well run building. It’s far nicer than MOMO (aka Joffrey Tower).

    340 on the Park is a nice building with killer views if facing South.

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  4. are we sure this is a NE corner unit? If so, it’s unbelievable that they didn’t show the view out to the east in an picture. If not (which is, I think, the case here!) it’s unbelievable that they start the description sounding like it’s NE (“EXPOSURE: North, East, West, City, Lake/Water, Park). I think it’s a NW corner, with the only East views being when you lean against the windows. In the last picture, it shows a corner which appears to be NW, based on buildings in both directions.

    A full-on east/lake view (or lack thereof), would make a huge difference in what this is worth.

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  5. way overpriced for 2011 – there are just too many other, nicer units in better locations for the same price. I feel very badly for the people that bought at this high price. To me, this feels like a 600k unit….

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  6. Somebody call the Home Depot, they want their cabinets back.

    Nothing about this place says 900+K to me. They are asking for good money in a post bubble world.

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  7. Agree on Heritage being a better building than MOMO. Even though MOMO seems to have nicer features; the units I’ve been in feel cheaper than the pictures. Nonetheless you can find list prices at sub $300/sqft versus a short sale pricing at $435 that does not have very great features.

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  8. For this price, 340 OTP ftw! No Momo – minimal parking.

    You would think the short selling bank would stage the condo or something, take the emphasis off the hieous reddish-orange and sky blue walls…also electric range? Meh

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  9. What is really going to be interesting is to see the effect (psychological) that all the closings at the Elysian (which took place in the past month) has on people. Multiple units over 3 million closed in the past few weeks and I have to think that it will have a profound effect on the “average sales price”. If the media wants to hype up the spring market, they could make a big deal of it – I can see the headlines now: “Home prices soar in Chicago” and, although we know it is BS – I think it WILL have a profound psychological effect on many sidelined buyers.

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  10. “are we sure this is a NE corner unit?”

    Yes. Check out the views for #2901. You can see the lake out the living room windows. Also- just from the buildings out the north view- you can tell that the other side of the unit faces east.

    Unit #2901, by the way, just reduced today and is now including 2 parkings spaces in the price.

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  11. “Multiple units over 3 million closed in the past few weeks and I have to think that it will have a profound effect on the “average sales price”.”

    I don’t believe these were “real” recent closings. I think if you check the public records, these sales actually happened quite some time ago (months ago) but the developer only put them into the MLS in the last few weeks to get them into the system (and some developers NEVER put the sales into the MLS.)

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  12. Oh – ok – thanks Sabrina. I didn’t realize that.

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  13. I’m surprised how crappy the finishings are here, I thought this was a “luxury” building. Still it’s good space on a high floor with a nice view. I think $700k would get it sold. Also do short sales ever work?

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  14. I did a marketing and pricing analysis for a client in this building in 2010. They decided not to list after seeing pricing. I had this occur 10-15 times in various buildings last year. It is always a price war in a high rise with similar units, not much of a point in trying to sell if you can’t accept that.

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  15. Bob 2 (Not Bob) on January 21st, 2011 at 9:10 am

    Never liked this building much. It’s ugly outside as well as inside, or at least I haven’t seen an attractive unit there the couple times I browsed them online. Always kinda blew my mind that the same people then went ahead and developed something as awesome as the Legacy.

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  16. The agent should get a soft slap to the back of the head for showing photos missing the absolute key element of this unit. Where is the photo of the actual EAST view of Mill Park. That is absurd that they did not feature this view.

    This agent should get a second soft head slap for not insisting that the sellers at least paint the walls a neutral color. Sure I know that they are out of money and need to sell below cost but a simple $500 coat of basic neutral paint over that hideous color scheme would improve the chances of selling this space quickly. It becomes a severe distraction to many buyers. Some buyers just can not look past simple things like colored walls.

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  17. I was able to look past the colored walls but that just allowed me to focus on the cooktop in the hallway kitchen configuration.

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  18. Pray tell, children, how do you purchase a 3 bedroom condo on the 39th floor of a high rise in downtown Chicago?

    You go to Countrywide and ask to borrow 100% of the purchase price.

    $872,500 + $172,500 = $1,035,000.00

    I also see the unit selling in 2006 not 2005 but the PIN’s are all screwed up for this building. The redfin PIN is no good so I used the county assessor’s PIN for #3901: 17-10-309-015-1869

    This loan would make even the MOST profligate among the cribchatterers blush.

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  19. Legacy isn’t awesome. Looks about the same with upgraded appliances.

    The Legacy is also virtually unsold…look out for huge price cuts/rentals!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  20. Bob 2 (Not Bob) on January 21st, 2011 at 9:34 am

    “Legacy isn’t awesome. Looks about the same with upgraded appliances.”

    Have you been inside? It’s pretty awesome except for the low ceiling height and it looks fantastic from the outside. Perhaps pictures don’t do it justice…

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  21. HD, what is so shocking? Specuvestors with the funny money are what drove the market.

    I’ve been in a few units in this building and I thought the finishes were definitely average for the kind of money they were asking. The views were great, but the finishes were nothing to write home about.

    High rises are just plain risky imho. Way too many neighbors and commoditized units. The only way to compete is through price.

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  22. Yes, I’ve been in it.

    355 units

    110 closed

    Doesn’t sound like the market supports the prices. The building has been marketed for years and completed more than a year ago

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  23. It’s not really shocking, I just like being dramatic before introducing high LTV million dollar purchases.

    “Russ on January 21st, 2011 at 9:46 am

    HD, what is so shocking? Specuvestors with the funny money are what drove the market.”

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  24. Bob 2 (Not Bob) on January 21st, 2011 at 9:51 am

    “Doesn’t sound like the market supports the prices. The building has been marketed for years and completed more than a year ago”

    Yea, no doubt about that. Overpriced and IMO crap location, my awesome comment was strictly about visual appeal and inside feel.

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  25. Unimpressed with the finishes.. Too small and crap location for the price. I don’t want to walk outside to state street on one end and tourist central on the other. No thanks.

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  26. Usually when you see a $1 million property that is listed as a short sale, it typically will be a specuvestor and the odds are the LTV will be high.

    The better jumbo lenders are requiring borrowers show substantially more assets than in the past. I know a few lenders with the better rates are asking for at least 20% of the loan amount in reserves after down payment. Some require 36 months of PITI in reserves. There are still a few who don’t require as much though. Very little funny money left in this market outside of FHA and even they are getting more strict as to what is allowable, particularly for borrowers without great credit histories.

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  27. I think mayor daley lives in this building.

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  28. Itcaffey, is that a positive or a negative?

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  29. I don’t think he does. I think he planned to buy a penthouse overlooking his Millennium Park but there was a lot of press/outrage over it.

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  30. What was the outrage over?

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  31. Daily live in a townhouse in the south loop

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  32. why not head to the other side of the park for the same price @ OMP, newer, lower ass fee, nice amenities, way less congested, better views, better finishes, and less tourists?

    or why not the metropolitan if you dont need a pool or the “extras” for way cheaper.

    or why not the columbian for the cheaps per sqft with views on michigan

    or six n mich with damn nice finishes and less units (less neighbors) historic tax freeze.

    or 910 s mich for an established older building (dont know about the assesments there).

    why pay 1mil for this when your options are HUGE if you wanta view of the bean park.

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  33. I had the pleasure of being invited into a penthouse unit here in 2007. As you can guess that was an amazing space! The owners had a huge unit that looked out in three directions – east, south, and west. It was just prior to our wedding and the owners were gracious enough to allow our photographer into their unit in order to get an aerial view of our wedding ceremony. We were actually married in the Wrigley Square area by the fountain. That awesome photo still sits in my bedroom. The view from those windows is incredible!

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  34. Why not just rent?

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  35. HD: “This loan would make even the MOST profligate among the cribchatterers blush.”

    Russ: “HD, what is so shocking? Specuvestors with the funny money are what drove the market.”

    Convenient to leave out who was pushing that funny money.

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  36. I’m pretty sure he moved out of that townhouse. Now Maggie looks out the window at mill park and tells him to rearrange the flowers.

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  37. No, ltcaffey, he never bought it. You can go by any day and see his police detail outside his SL TH.

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  38. You’re right, Russ didn’t blush.

    Maybe Russ is even more profligate than then MOST profligate of the cribchatterers? This sort of reminds me of that old St. Anselm ontological argument from my days as an undergrad….whereas St Anselm proved the existence of god, Russ failure to blush doesn’t prove much of anything.

    “#G on January 21st, 2011 at 10:32 am

    HD: “This loan would make even the MOST profligate among the cribchatterers blush.”

    Russ: “HD, what is so shocking? Specuvestors with the funny money are what drove the market.”

    Convenient to leave out who was pushing that funny money.”

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  39. “I think mayor daley lives in this building.”

    As others pointed out, that was the rumor/story whne the building was going up, but he never left Dearborn Park.

    As to “why the outrage”, some people felt that the mayor, making $175k or whatever it was/is, shouldn’t be buying a $1.5mm penthouse (or whatever it was) as that’s not (a) actually affordable and (b) not consistent with his common guy shtick.

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  40. “As others pointed out, that was the rumor/story whne the building was going up, but he never left Dearborn Park.”

    Anon he lives in Central Station not Dearborn Park….

    Aaaah feels so good to correct anon!!!!!

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  41. uhhh – anon, come on. you think the guy is really living off of his 175k salary? Give me a frickin’ break!!! He has outside money (?family, ?inheritance, etc.). Everyone knows that (and if they don’t, they are morons).

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  42. “Aaaah feels so good to correct anon!!!!!”

    *!#$@@$%!!!! You beat me to it!!!!

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  43. Bet that he moves right after he gets out of office. Perhaps he just negotiated a penthouse in Shanghai or Beijing!

    My money says that he is out of the townhome once he loses his security detail. He does loose the detail right? Or does he get the Presidential detail of Chicago Police special security for the rest of his life?

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  44. Yeah, his brother was a VP of JP Morgan and did private sector banking for a while thats very big money.

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  45. “that old St. Anselm ontological argument from my days as an undergrad”

    Blame the Jesuits.

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  46. Man the paint job here makes it look like a bunch of college kids were renting this place

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  47. G:

    What exactly do I have to blush about? Yes, I am a mortgage lender. What is your point? Are you insinuating that because I am a mortgage lender I can’t point out funny money or that I am some how personally tied to all the shenanigans that went on in the market?

    While it should be obvious, every mortgage company and every loan officer was not engaged in pimping pay option ARMs on little old ladies.

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  48. Absolutely, positively impossible, Sonies. We all know you must buy in order to paint the walls.

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  49. Sorry guess I fell for the rumor. I know Morgan Stanley did the parking meter deal but they do tons of biz w JP Morgan. Wonder if Billy Daley helped grease the wheels?

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  50. G- actually it IS true that most rentals will NOT allow you to pain the walls.

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  51. “Anon he lives in Central Station not Dearborn Park….”

    Enh, whatever. All looks the same to me. Still, it’s not the Heritage, and he hasn’t moved since he moved there from B’port in 1990 +/- 3 years.

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  52. “What exactly do I have to blush about? Yes, I am a mortgage lender. What is your point? Are you insinuating that because I am a mortgage lender I can’t point out funny money or that I am some how personally tied to all the shenanigans that went on in the market?

    While it should be obvious, every mortgage company and every loan officer was not engaged in pimping pay option ARMs on little old ladies.”

    The conversation was about 100% financing. My point was how you helped to push that funny money. You certainly used to pimp zero down loans, right?

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  53. “G- actually it IS true that most rentals will NOT allow you to pain the walls.”

    Oh, I thought I read it was ALL rentals. I guess it isn’t a valid reason to buy afterall.

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  54. “G- actually it IS true that most rentals will NOT allow you to pain the walls.”

    Oh, I thought I read it was ALL rentals. I guess it isn’t a valid reason to buy afterall.

    Saw that coming a mile away…………

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  55. “uhhh – anon, come on. you think the guy is really living off of his 175k salary? Give me a frickin’ break!!! He has outside money (?family, ?inheritance, etc.). Everyone knows that (and if they don’t, they are morons).”

    Yes, he obviously has lots of other money, but (1) it’s ill-gotten gains, and (2) the PR problem remains. His father was mayor for life and hardly got “rich” doing it, either. They’ve both been all about the power instead.

    “Yeah, his brother was a VP of JP Morgan and did private sector banking for a while thats very big money.”

    He was a hell of a lot more than VP.

    Question tho: Does your (moderately) rich brother give you 100s of 1000s of dollars, just because you’re his brother? Do you *actually* know anyone who does that–not give him a job at your company that pays more than he’s worth, just flat out donate it? And is the donee a proud, successful person in his own right? I call BS.

    “I know Morgan Stanley did the parking meter deal but they do tons of biz w JP Morgan. Wonder if Billy Daley helped grease the wheels?”

    You honestly think that the Daley’s–with PatFitz snooping around all.the.time.–are that stupid? Seriously?

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  56. “it IS true that most rentals will NOT allow you to pain the walls”

    And most rentals don’t give the LL the right to enter except in emergency, so one could paint the walls and then paint them back, but to pull that off, one must avoid calling the landlord at 3am about a f’ing mouse.

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  57. “Saw that coming a mile away…………”

    “You set ’em up and I’ll knock ’em back, Lloyd. One by one.”

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  58. G- LMAO……… thought you were only a numbers guy……

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  59. They stole the meters right under PatFitzs nose my friend. And he doesn’t give him money “just because he’s his brother”. When your brother is mayor of a city your company does hundreds of millions of dollars with there is a mutually beneficial relationship.

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  60. Now, where was I? Oh yeah, Ruuuusseeee, come out to plaaaay.

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  61. G, it depends on how you define “funny money.” Secondly, I don’t “push” anything. I also don’t believe that anything other than a 30 year fixed with 20% down is funny money.

    Funny money is a 100% million dollar purchase to anyone. Funny money is not 100% $400k purchase to a new Doctor with perfect credit and decent assets. Funny money is 100% $400k purchase using stated income for a w-2’d borrower who claims to have a landscaping business on the side and no assets. Funny money is 100% investment property financing. You see the difference?

    The problem with the market is that in their quest for additional yield, lenders got away from doing basic due diligence and common sense underwriting on a large scale.

    When 100% financing first started, it still required the borrower demonstrate decent assets. Same with option ARMS. You needed 30-40% equity and substantial assets. Then as the market got crazy, the banks stopped asking about assets. They started doing stated income with 100% financing. Then they started doing 100% financing, with stated income, with 620 FICO scores.

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  62. “When your brother is mayor of a city your company does hundreds of millions of dollars with”

    Show me. JPM did diligence on the meters and the garages, but I’ve not seen any evidence that they made a serious bid.

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  63. I have never had an issue painting the walls of a rental, of course I have usually given the landlord paint samples and when requested used his painter just to make everyone comfortable. A lot of the “customizations” I would do to condos are superficial and don’t go beyond the fixture level. That is all fair game in a rental as long as it can go back to the baseline at the end of the lease.

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  64. Why not just wait for this to become bank owned and pick it up for 750k?

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  65. Bob 2 (Not Bob) on January 21st, 2011 at 11:49 am

    “I have never had an issue painting the walls of a rental,”

    Yea, I did that once before too, no problem… of course then I only stayed there for a year so it was mostly a waste. You can pretty much do whatever you want to a rental as long as you leave it the way it was when you move out. I’m always amused that some people are afraid of little stuff like hanging pictures in rentals like that’s a valid reason to keep a deposit.

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  66. The problem with rentals is the quality. Lots of vintage units with crappy landlords.

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  67. Anon do you really think it would be possible for the mayor to sell the meters to his brothers firm?

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  68. “Funny money is a 100% million dollar purchase to anyone.”
    “Funny money is 100% $400k purchase using stated income for a w-2?d borrower who claims to have a landscaping business on the side and no assets.”
    “Funny money is 100% investment property financing.”
    “Then they started doing 100% financing, with stated income, with 620 FICO scores.”

    Russ, Is there any category of “funny money” you defined above that you didn’t promote in, say, 2006? My definition has always been what you claim now, how about yours?

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  69. jp3chicago – the realtor deserves another slap against the head for not having the toilet lids down in the bathroom photos. I just cannnot get over how may times this faux pas appears in listing photos.

    Seriously, is it just my architecturally trained eyes that see this?

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  70. “The conversation was about 100% financing. My point was how you helped to push that funny money. You certainly used to pimp zero down loans, right?”

    I’ve been in the market to buy since July 2009. Every time I’m interested in a property I research its history in CCRD. I’ve analyzed numerous condos, SFHs and multifamilies and not once have I found a purchase where a buyer put even 5% down. Most of the purchases were either 100% financing or close to 100% financing, i.e. a token $100 down. And then on top of that they took out second mortgages and then defaulted.

    You can’t blame mortgage brokers and banks for this. People were jonesing to own. Then when the market changed they changed their minds and abdicated responsibility. You can’t just let individuals off the hook by blaming lenders. These buyers were greedy and aching to flip and cash out.

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  71. Milkster, I am not letting anyone off the hook. There is plenty of blame to go around. But, I do believe that Russ used to pimp the very same loans he is now calling “funny money.” He appears to be re-writing history, that’s all.

    “Then when the market changed they changed their minds and abdicated responsibility.”

    Now this line is sorta funny. As long as they didn’t go in with this intent, how is it “abdicating responsibility” when they walk away, let the bank take the property, and suffer the credit consequences? The bank offered these terms and they are just taking them up on them, you know?

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  72. Let’s not forget that Maggie Daley drove in some income from her job. I’m sure that the tax returns were public record. What did she make?

    Part of having a brother in office is unlimited “backstage passes” and no I am not talking about at Lalapalooza events. Bill Daley and his firm had easy access to many many people in power due to his brothers name and influence. That was worth millions of dollars over the last 20 years.

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  73. “The problem with rentals is the quality. Lots of vintage units with crappy landlords.”

    And lots of crappy renters that don’t know their rights. It’s really hard to legally keep a deposit or evict someone that pays their rent on time in Chicago. Painting the walls isn’t going to get it done, no matter how much the landlord doesn’t like it.

    And in all my years of renting, I’ve never had a landlord that cared.

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  74. Hi G –

    I meant that for as long as it tickled their fancy, these buyers were all stoked about being home “owners”. Then when it wasn’t convenient for them anymore they washed their hands of the whole notion and moved on. No one forced them to buy. No one walked them to the bank. Now the other owners in the condos and the other homeowners on the block have to deal with the fallout of these abandoned properties.

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  75. That’s the agreement that the lenders made with them. I can’t entirely blame deadbeats with bad credit for taking out loans that the lenders were unconcerned about making. It was a free call option with the worst outcome being the same bad credit rating as they went in with. The lenders wanted whatever they could get in order to sell fraudulent securities, so they got whatever. They also knew they would dump the mess on the taxpayers, too.

    Regardless, I do believe that Russ used to pimp the very same loans he is now calling “funny money.”

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  76. G, I’ve never “promoted”, much less pimped any individual mortgage product over another. Sorry to disappoint, but there is no rewriting of history. My approach has always been to point out both good and bad of mortgage products that are available to an individual and help my clients make the decision that is right for them.

    I really don’t know what your beef is and why you feel compelled to attack or try to one up contributors on this site.

    If you are curious, I’ve never closed an option ARM. No Money Merge Accounts. I’ve closed exactly TWO sub prime 2/28s. A handful of interest-onlys and maybe a dozen 80/20s. This is over nine years in the business and several hundred million in closed loans.

    My positions have been consistent since I first started coming to this site. I could also point to my own personal blog (no longer active) with post going back to ’05 with my positions on option ARMs, sub prime loans, and the like.

    Other than your word, how do we know it actually isn’t you who is doing the flip flopping?

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  77. I think you’re giving them too much credit. You have to understand the mentality of these borrowers. It’s little more than a half baked idea with no real follow through. They buy the condo and then it’s like oh $hit I don’t have any money to make the payment because my hours were cut, i didn’t get the big bonus I was counting on, or, in most cases – my car broke down and I had to pay to get it fixed. How do you expect me to pay you?

    I mean really, like the guy I know who bought the $500k two flat, no money down and rent didn’t cover even half the mortgage payment. I had a neighbor, retired fireman/pensioner/specuvestor, tell me that if things went south on his condo investments downtown, he would just flip them, or, I quote, ‘pay off the developer a little cash to get out of the deal’

    I mean really, it’s stupidity and greed. That’s as simple as it gets.

    “Then when it wasn’t convenient for them anymore they washed their hands of the whole notion and moved on.”

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  78. “Anon do you really think it would be possible for the mayor to sell the meters to his brothers firm?”

    You seem to think it would be possible for the mayor to give his brother’s firm “hundreds of millions of dollars”, which is what I wanted you to show me evidence of.

    I am *not* a Daley apologist, but when people just make stuff up about them (or anyone like them), it makes it easier for people to ignore *legitimate* criticisms and for Daley (or whoever) to deflect everything.

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  79. “My positions have been consistent since I first started coming to this site. I could also point to my own personal blog (no longer active) with post going back to ‘05 with my positions on option ARMs, sub prime loans, and the like.

    Other than your word, how do we know it actually isn’t you who is doing the flip flopping?”

    Why don’t you point us to a blog post of yours during the bubble discussing 100% LTV options? We can then judge if you haven’t flip flopped.

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  80. It’s nice to have G off of my back for once!!

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  81. This has turned into a very interesting post. IMO, You cant really blame the buyer for this though, the banks are at fault for lending the money in the first place and the brokers who making money regardless of what happened.

    If someone would give me a mortgage for 10 million dollars with nothing down and I knew that if I defaulted, well, only my credit would be hurt BUT could take the chance on flipping it, I would take it in a heart beat. Also, if the bank knew that if I defaulted, they would get bailed out 100 cents on the dollar….

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  82. BTW, Daley has been awesome.

    Rahm will be good too once he is in office.

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  83. Look, I would love to own a house in Brooklyn, but I know I don’t have the income to support a $1 million purchase (at a minimum) in a passable neighborhood. Putting myself in that type of a precarious situation scares me, so I’ll just keep my humble co-op and not take on that risk, thank you very much. I’m at peace with that. However not everyone is that scared.

    I was reminded of this article from the NY Times. The East New York section of Brooklyn is one of the worst neighborhoods in NYC. Its crime rate has risen while it has fallen in other neighborhoods because the undesireables got pushed into that area when the other areas gentrified. The article profiles a lady who bought a 2 family home on a teacher’s assistant’s salary for 565K. With the affordable housing subsidies she received, the house only cost her 425K. Still a ton on a teacher’s assistant’s salary. Pre-bubble, this house might have gone for 100K max.

    While I wish her all the best and I really and truly do hope things work out for her, I can’t help but wonder how she affords her monthly payments even with the second unit rented? The tenants in this location are not “A Players” with good credit or salaries.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/05/realestate/05Living.html?_r=1&scp=2&sq=cypress+hills&st=nyt

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  84. “I can’t help but wonder how she affords her monthly payments even with the second unit rented?”

    Fiancee + child support? No mention of fiancee’s income, which may be because if it were included, she wouldn’t have rcvd the subsidy, and 13 yo + fiancee implies (but no way certain) a non-fiancee father.

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  85. Yeah, but we all know how men are. They come and go.

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  86. Yeah, but we all know how men are. They come and go.

    Milkster, ouch……….. I hope to be with my wife forever…….

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  87. Hey Russ, I guess you aren’t Russ from smartmortgageadvice.com, “Chicago’s Top Mortgage Lender”, who in the following post from September 2007 was discussing his objections to predatory lending laws and the negative impact they would have on his business. He also has a cribchatter link on the website.:

    http://smartmortgageadvice.wordpress.com/2007/09/20/why-i-cant-vote-for-democrats/

    “My positions have been consistent since I first started coming to this site. I could also point to my own personal blog (no longer active) with post going back to ‘05 with my positions on option ARMs, sub prime loans, and the like.”

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  88. “Yeah, but we all know how men are. They come and go.”

    Milkster – No pun intended eh?

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  89. This used to be the only residential building with access to the pedway, must be boarded up now due to the panhandlers urinating in that elevator.

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  90. Juliana, thats me. And yes, I am fully against ill conceived legislation that will do nothing but hurt consumers. Giving legislation a feel good title like “Anti-predatory lending” doesn’t mean the legislation is good for consumers or that it will actually prevent predatory lending.

    If you keep reading other posts, it is clear that I present both good and bad and my positions are consistent. I built my practice on transparency and nothing has changed.

    Here is what I wrote about Option ARMs… I wrote this in late 05 or early 06 if I recall.

    http://smartmortgageadvice.wordpress.com/2006/12/21/option-arms/

    There are other posts on subprime, interest-only, 100%, etc. I clearly point out the issues with the products.

    So G, be a real G and man up and reveal who you are and show us that you haven’t flip flopped or how you predicted the bubble and were able to use your knowledge to profit from it.

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  91. Isn’t Daley Unit 55B’s “taxpayer of record”? Certainly that unit owner is afforded a level of non-disclosure not granted to any other unit owner.

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  92. Haha, a-fed – so naughty!

    I haven’t researched the East New York woman’s mortgage. For all I know, she could have put 20% down and taken out a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. But basing things on my “been around the block a few times” experience, I’d bet money that that’s not the case.

    What’s the deal with this “fiancee”? Is there a ring? When’s the wedding date? Does he work, and if so, how much does he make? And if they really are going to tie the knot soon, why is he allowing her to buy the house all by herself? Like Anon, I assumed another man was the father of her 13 year old and that he is no longer in the picture. To be safe, she should make sure she can afford the house on her own. Having a “fiancee” is not the same as being married.

    I read this article weeks ago and it’s bothered me since. She seems like a nice, hardworking lady who has made some sacrifices in life. I really do want her to make it all work. But there are too many loose ends here. She’s taking on an awful lot of debt all by herself. If she’s already receiving subsidies from non-profits, she’s probably making a small down-payment too. And to me, counting on a “fiancee” these days to hang in there and make the numbers work? Well, you might as well believe in the tooth fairy. I think this house is too ambitious for her means.

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  93. I’ve often cited the dangers of what can happen when there is a lack of financial sophistication. The friend I’ve mentioned before, with a $450k loan on a legal secys. salary, out of work for almost 3 years now, w/ no payments since early 2009? Her balance due is now $485k, but she just got a job offer, and thinks this will give her negotiating room to renegotiate her loan and keep the house. Even with 3 boarders (@ $400 a room?) and her own puny newjob income, she won’t have the income, and I didn’t have the heart to tell her that when she called, all excited about finally finding work (at about $20k under her previous salary). She will not keep this house, short of a miracle.

    Not a clue. Hoping and praying and wishing on a star. And the lotto. Although not innumerate, she’s Financially Unsophisticated.

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  94. “BofA said of the foreclosures it conducted in the fourth quarter, 78% of the borrowers had not made a mortgage payment for more than one year. The loans averaged 19 months in delinquency. More than half of the borrowers either lost their job or had their income reduced.”

    http://www.housingwire.com/2011/01/21/bank-of-america-to-resume-foreclosure-sales-in-judicial-states-early-2011

    Granted a lot of those were toxic Countrywide loans but still, that’s the statistic of the day.

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  95. “I’ve often cited the dangers of what can happen when there is a lack of financial sophistication. The friend I’ve mentioned before, with a $450k loan on a legal secys. salary, out of work for almost 3 years now, w/ no payments since early 2009? Her balance due is now $485k, but she just got a job offer, and thinks this will give her negotiating room to renegotiate her loan and keep the house.’

    Why would your friend WANT to keep the house? What a financial burden. While she is struggling to pay that mortgage (and where at least half- if not more of her income will go towards, right?) she will not be saving anything else. She won’t be able to take vacations, build a nest egg or, simply, just enjoy life.

    Instead, she will be saddled with this huge mortgage that is sucking her wealth away. Why do people do this to themselves? Why do they want to live under that stress?

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  96. Sabrina, I have a hard time answering that question.. I think she got sucked up into the American Dream. 2 of her “boarders” are family, and I think she feels this house, that she had built is her Dream Home, built with her own blood, sweat and tears and is the only legacy she will have to pass on. But mostly it was built on wishes, hopes, and fantasies of living like the Joneses. In keeping this home, she exhausted her savings, her retirement account, everything. And yet, she persists in wanting to keep this house. And then we get into the truly irrational notions of what “God tells her” and playing the lotto… My suspicion is that things have gone so far off the rails that living in a fantasy is the only way she thinks she can “control” her life. I’ve advised she make a Plan B, start saving some money “just in case”, but she won’t be swayed. She’s not crazy, not mentally ill, just really really irrational when it comes to this house.

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  97. I met a guy a few weeks ago who believes that it is a mental disorder to be too attached to an underwater home with a high mortgage payment.

    He tells debtors that for the amount that they pay in mortgage + taxes, they could rent a brand new apartment downtown in a building with a doorman, a workout room and possibly a pool.

    And when I come across the debtor who’s paying $2,400 a month for an 1960’s ranch or 1980’s townhome in Glenview or tinley park etc, it starts to make sense. Maybe it is a disorder.

    I regularly see people with $280,000 or $300,000 and sometimes $400,000 mortgages and $2,000+ month mortgage payments for older, not updated homes in some nondescript place like Gladstone Park or Orland, etc. And they’re so firmly attached to keeping the house “I MUST keep the house, this is my home.” Hell I’ve seen people in Bellwood with $2,000 mortgages dating from 2006. It’s complete insanity.

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  98. “I regularly see people with $280,000 or $300,000 and sometimes $400,000 mortgages and $2,000+ month mortgage payments for older, not updated homes in some nondescript place like Gladstone Park or Orland, etc. And they’re so firmly attached to keeping the house “I MUST keep the house, this is my home.” Hell I’ve seen people in Bellwood with $2,000 mortgages dating from 2006. It’s complete insanity.”

    I agree HD. I don’t get it. They’re throwing their money away! At least spend it on something productive. But this is one of the problems facing the country going forward. Much of the middle class is trapped in housing that is eating up way too much of their pay.

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  99. “My suspicion is that things have gone so far off the rails that living in a fantasy is the only way she thinks she can “control” her life. I’ve advised she make a Plan B, start saving some money “just in case”, but she won’t be swayed. She’s not crazy, not mentally ill, just really really irrational when it comes to this house.”

    This is what I mean by the housing obsession. It is still alive and well. But this is also what Clio means when he talks about it all being psychological. Home buying (and owning) IS an emotional experience. It can lead people to doing things that aren’t rational.

    I find these stories to be sad- actually. What a stressful life.

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  100. “My suspicion is that things have gone so far off the rails that living in a fantasy is the only way she thinks she can “control” her life. I’ve advised she make a Plan B, start saving some money “just in case”, but she won’t be swayed. She’s not crazy, not mentally ill, just really really irrational when it comes to this house.”

    And just think how many out there are out there like her. Barely holding on. Exhausting all resources slowly but surely. Very overextended on real estate via funny money loans made during the boom. She is eventually going to default. The bank is eventually going to repossess the property. But this could be several years out.

    Just more evidence that this bust will be long and drawn out.

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  101. It is very popular right now (especially on this site) to criticize mortgage lenders and homebuyers of the mid 2000s (with their “funny money”, etc.). Everyone is so angry because they were financially irresponsible but what is interesting is that it is this SAME group of people who seem to be advocating walking away from your mortgage. ISN’T THAT ALSO FINANCIALLY IRRESPONSIBLE?!!! What is the fallout going to be for these people in 5 years when the economy is back on track, inflation is high and these guys can’t afford increased rent? They might be better off staying put….

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  102. “Just more evidence that this bust will be long and drawn out.’

    It’s taking forever to move the distressed properties through the system. I’m watching a property in the south loop that had its lis pendens filed in 2008. Why hasn’t the bank taken it yet? Almost 3 years! Wow. Maybe they’ve worked something out??? But I doubt it.

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  103. “What is the fallout going to be for these people in 5 years when the economy is back on track, inflation is high and these guys can’t afford increased rent? They might be better off staying put….”

    So instead she spends every last dime on her housing for the next 5 years? Pulease. As I said- this is why the middle class is struggling. There’s no way to get ahead with those kind of housing costs (can’t save for retirement, can’t save for a rainy day, can’t save for the kids college, can’t afford to take a vacation etc. etc.)

    Instead, someone who isn’t a current owner, could buy a house in the suburbs for just $100k and live quite easily on a middle class salary (with low housing costs.) The bust IS creating opportunities for those who remain on the sidelines.

    Meanwhile, prices continue to slide. It seems really, really slow out there for anything over $400k and below $900k. It’s got to be brutal for those with the $600,000 townhouse or loft.

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  104. “It seems really, really slow out there for anything over $400k and below $900k”

    Any decent house in OB in the HC school district priced between 400-900k will sell within hours/days……

    Any condo at the park hyatt, elysian, ritz carlton residences priced between 400-900k will sell in seconds…..

    (sorry for the anon-esque correction, there)

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  105. The short sale in the Palmolive a few months ago in the $800s didn’t sell within “seconds”. It was within months.

    The foreclosure in the Palmolive (just over $1 million but below the prior purchase price) has been on the market a month with no takers. We’ll see how low the bank has to go with that one before it sells.

    Someone wrote me that in the last 4 months no single family house has sold in Park Ridge in the $400k to $500k price bracket (all 40 of the sales during that time were under $400k.) That is stunning to me given the elevated prices there. (Not sure what sold over $500k though- as this person was just looking under $500k.)

    If anyone can confirm it- that would be great. Also- I’m betting at least half of those 40 sales were short sales/foreclosures given the selling prices (in the $200s and $300s).

    It is dead out there over $400,000.

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  106. “It is dead out there over $400,000”

    Huh? 43.4% of pending sfh sales in park ridge are sfh over 400k

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  107. Interesting chart of listing vs. sales price psf. In January 2009 the median listing price was roughly $215 psf and the selling price was just a tad over $200 psf; whereas today, the median listing price was $175 psf whereas the average selling price is just a tad over $125 psf. That’s a huge drop off in selling prices. SEllers haven’t yet gotten the memo.

    http://www.cdn-redfin.com/stingray/do/region-chart/2011_01_18/2/26120/MEDIAN_HOUSE_SQ_FT_BY_TIME.png

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  108. “today, the median listing price was $175 psf whereas the average selling price is just a tad over $125 psf. That’s a huge drop off in selling prices.”

    that is because of foreclosures and most buyers don’t want foreclosures – so the stalemate continues because of misinterpreted data and fear mongering from people like you.

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  109. 60641

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  110. “Someone wrote me that in the last 4 months no single family house has sold in Park Ridge in the $400k to $500k price bracket (all 40 of the sales during that time were under $400k.) That is stunning to me given the elevated prices there. (Not sure what sold over $500k though- as this person was just looking under $500k.)”

    Sabrina – I’d say that someone is wrong. Very wrong in fact. A simple trip to Redfin shows that there were more than twenty properties either under contract or sold within the last three months in Park Ridge between $400K and $500K. In fact there has been considerable activity there lately. Some long listings at multiple price points have actually gone under contract in January. Can’t tell you why but there sure has been decent activity there lately.

    “Elevated prices” What does that mean? Do you mean that there are prices that are high or that Park Ridge in general is still overpriced? Looks like there are buyers at all price levels.

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  111. http://www.cdn-redfin.com/stingray/do/region-chart/2011_01_18/2/25798/MEDIAN_HOUSE_SQ_FT_BY_TIME.png

    Park Ridge pricing looks up 12.5% from roughly $200 psf to $225 psf in the last few months.

    BUY NOW OR BE PRICE OUT FOREVER.

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  112. “Sabrina – I’d say that someone is wrong. Very wrong in fact. A simple trip to Redfin shows that there were more than twenty properties either under contract or sold within the last three months in Park Ridge between $400K and $500K.”

    This was an MLS search they sent me. It wasn’t “under contract” – it was actual closed properties. And these were SFH (not multi-unit buildings or anything else.)

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  113. If someone has the MLS data- that would help. It is much more reliable than any of the public systems.

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  114. http://www.redfin.com/IL/Park-Ridge/625-N-Prospect-Ave-60068/home/13649462

    625 N Prospect Ave PARK RIDGE, IL 60068

    $925,000 ON 12/08/2010

    Whomever sent you the search was wrong.

    Regardless things are getting cheaper there, but not too cheap. If you want cheap, look at Des Plaines to the west….

    only 2 homes over $400,000, just exactly how Des Plaines should be:

    http://www.redfin.com/search#!lat=42.037681481914895&long=-87.90510282513787&market=chicago&region_id=5064&region_type=6&sf=&sold_within_days=30&v=6&zoomLevel=11

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  115. Interesting graph HD- as the difference between list and sold is quite large.

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  116. HD- I said homes up to $500k. Not OVER $500k. The info they sent me was for all SFH UNDER $500k.

    I never said nothing has sold over $500k. I haven’t checked that data so I have no idea. Clearly some homes have- as you posted that closing above.

    But it looks like the data might have been wrong for the $400k to $500k range as well. I don’t have access to the MLS- so I can’t check it myself.

    My point was that the mid-tier is very very difficult right now. Properties are not selling easily in that price range- no matter where they are located (city or suburbs.) Maybe because these are move-up buyer homes? They can’t sell the prior property and/or no longer have the downpayment to move up?

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  117. Mid-tier is very difficult, very difficult. High end is selling well, low end is selling good too but the middle – that’s dead. and forever will be. Either you’re rich or you’re not.

    sorry about the misinterpretation of your post.

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  118. “High end is selling well, low end is selling good too but the middle – that’s dead. and forever will be. Either you’re rich or you’re not.”

    OK – now you lost all credibility.

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  119. I don’t think I was clear in what I was saying. But I agree HD. The cheap stuff is flying off the shelves (not surprisingly.) The rich are buying again (thanks to stocks being at 2 year highs and the financial sector being rescued.) But everything in between? Not so much.

    It takes some real cash to buy a $500k home now (with the loan requirements.) How many have it? Despite what Clio says- not as many as people think. They may have the income to qualify- but not the downpayment. Combine that with possibly owning another property already – which may be underwater- and it’s not a good scenario.

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  120. “OK – now you lost all credibility.”

    He’s exactly right on Clio. Without 100% financing- this middle tier has dried up. As I’ve said many times before- how long does it take the professional couple (with 2 incomes) to save up $100k to buy the $500k or $600k house? At least 3 to 4 years (and that’s if they’re very good savers.)

    In the meantime, the houses will sit without buyers.

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  121. Sabrina,

    that is not true at ALL!! There are many houses/condos in the 400-600k range that are being bought by all sorts of people (ie single professionals who are not going to get married, married couples without kids, empty nesters, people looking for in-towns, and MANY children of baby boomers who, with the help of their parents can ABSOLUTELY swing a 100k down payment). There is DEFINITELY a market for this price range – to say anything different is a little naiive.

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  122. Clio- If that were true there wouldn’t be price reduction after price reduction in that price range. It’s pretty brutal out there right now. Of course- the properties currently coming on the market are ones that were on the market last year and didn’t sell. So they’re coming back on to try again- and usually at even lower prices. Maybe it will be different with the “fresh” listings- when those start coming on. But, of course that will mean even more competition.

    So maybe they were on for $600k last year- and now they’re listed at $550k. Still really hard to get a loan at that level.

    There’s a lot of competition in this price range and not enough buyers.

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  123. I do agree that there is plenty of competition at this price point however it is recently MOVING well. Look at Redfin and see just how many homes have CLOSED in the last three months in the 60068 zip code between 375K and 550K. Note that there are a few great homes in the CC area at 519K and 530k. Those two or three might be a bit of a stretch from your 400K to 500K question but should still be considered mid range in my book.

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  124. Sabrina, “They may have the income to qualify- but not the downpayment.”

    Sabrina I disagree with this comment, its something clio and I were talking about in another posting. Since 08 stocks have surged alot of people are sitting on alot of new cash right now, given the dow went from 6600 in 2008 to almost 12000 now, people have cash… but given the risks they may not want to put in real estate and FHA just got a whole lot more expensive post Oct

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  125. The previously referenced NY Times article is on Cypress Hills, NOT East NY. There is no comparison whatsoever between East NY and Cypress Hills. It’s like comparing Hyde Park and Englewood, and saying they’re the same market becuase they’re in geographic proximity.

    Cypress Hills is roughly a NYC equivalent to Albany Park or something. Hardly high end, but not remotely ghetto either. Full of striving immigrants. In Cypress Hills, family sized apartments go for about $1,500 a month, so the woman referenced in the article will have no problem with finding tenants.

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  126. Another poster who ignores 2010’s dismal sales figures and believes the tooth fairy is going to take drop a $100k down payment under the pillow of my generation.

    It’s difficult, extremely difficult to save a $100k down payment. Don’t give me this BS that you can invest the money in stocks or gold or whatnot. The first rule or investing is to invest money you can afford to lose – and most people can’t afford to lose their down payment. Bank interest rates are zero and there is no interest bearing safe investment.

    Saving $20k a year isn’t easy. It’s not extraordinarily difficult but I was able to do it last year with 2 professional incomes. But it requires low fixed expenses and a certain level of frugality, and most importantly, a household income in the mid $100’s. Quite frankly I just don’t see that among my peers, my generation, my co-workers, my clients, or even the dozen people at my apartment for the bears game today. Hell even one of them bought a home last year – age 32, married and with a 1 yo, using FHA 3.5% down – and he’s bitching that in the first three months of moving in he spent 3x times as much money fixing the place up than he earned in income during the previous three months.

    Even if I saved $100,000 over five years and I had a 20% down payment on a $500,000 home – the PITI of my new home would cost me: my current rent plus my savings every month plus an additional couple hundred bucks every month. I’d be living paycheck to paycheck every month just to pay the mortgage AFTER putting $100k down. it’s ridiculous, and absurd, and most people with a pulse recognize this. That’s why 2010 sucked for housing, absent a few suckers and a handful of Chicago area people who got a ‘deal’. 2011 will likely be worse.

    Sure there are deals out there, but not so many in the Chicago area. In LV FL inland empire buyers are getting deals that make sense, PITI’s that don’t break the borrower’s budget. But nowadays, I’m just not seeing it. I’ll let you know when it makes sense to buy. We’re just not there yet.

    “gesco on January 23rd, 2011 at 9:50 pm

    Sabrina, “They may have the income to qualify- but not the downpayment.”

    Sabrina I disagree with this comment, its something clio and I were talking about in another posting. Since 08 stocks have surged alot of people are sitting on alot of new cash right now, given the dow went from 6600 in 2008 to almost 12000 now, people have cash… but given the risks they may not want to put in real estate and FHA just got a whole lot more expensive post Oct”

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  127. I agree Homedelete. It’s extremely difficult to save $100k even on professional salaries unless you’re extremely frugal and forego those vacations and eating out. And most middle class people don’t have much in the stock market. What they do have is in 401ks. They don’t have discretionary income sitting in there waiting to be used to buy a house with.

    The stock market surge really is only helping the upper middle class and the rich, as they keep much of their wealth in it. Not so much everyone else.

    Imagine if the FHA goes away? Who is buying then? There are at least some sales because of the 3.5% down. But the head of the FHA has also said that being around 40% of the mortgage market is not sustainable. So- when do they start cutting back and tightening credit even more?

    There are definitely some people who get downpayments from parents. But it is a very small percentage.

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  128. I know of two people who bought homes and received down payment assistance from family. My personal experiences may not be reflective of the markey in general, nut one of the two people were a rich north shore couple with a couple of hundred k, and the other received 10% of a 150k condo. That’s all I know and I know plenty of people. Most people buying today are young people with little money down, or, more established buyers with equity or savings. You see a few high end sales with financial bonus money or high bonuses in general. We have posters here who’ve bought nice homes after completing a big deal or whatnot, but that’s rare. I have this conversation all the time with friends, we are all in our 30’s, we all rent, we have average or higher incomes, and there are no homes that fit into our budgets where we want to live. This is the time in oour lives we are all supposed to buy and yet here we all are, renting, saving and living our lives while the fb’s are waiting for that one young couple to buy their hpme and bail them out of their financial albatross.

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  129. ” I have this conversation all the time with friends, we are all in our 30’s, we all rent, we have average or higher incomes, and there are no homes that fit into our budgets where we want to live. This is the time in oour lives we are all supposed to buy and yet here we all are, renting,…”

    dont forget “we are all a bunch of whiners” as well. Come on, give me a break – you sound like a spoiled brat – like it is your God given RIGHT to own a house. Life is about compromises – if you can’t afford to buy a house then RENT. If you can’t afford the type of house you want in a particular area, then ACCEPT something smaller. If you can’t afford “where you want to live” then move somewhere else. YOU DONT SOLVE YOUR PROBLEMS BY MAKING OR EXPECTING OTHERS (in this case, sellers) TO CHANGE FOR YOU……

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  130. You call it whining, I call it a nearly paralyzed real estate market. Realtors, contractors, mortgage brokers, etc, many have gone out of biz because so few of the younger generations are at the point in their lives to buy homes, and, they’re just not buying.

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  131. HD,

    does it also have something to do with our generation ( 26-35 year olds ) lifestyle? My parents were able to save tons of money early on in their professional careers..But they didn’t drink, gamble, go on too many vacations, or spend much money on cars early on. I feel like our parents generation was smarter with their money. My dad was still driving a broken down minivan without power windows when he put 400k down on his home…after paying off more of the house and securing retirement, trust fund/ college funds for kids, investing, etc, he spent more money on fancy vaca’s, cars, etc…I , and many of my friends, on the other hand, spend a fair deal of change on alcohol, clothes, vegas, etc. The list goes on.

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  132. * above post was in reference to it being tough to save 20k/ year nowadays.

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  133. HD – again, you display your egocentric view of the world. What percentage of the population does your generation account for? What percentage of wealth in this country does your generation have? See? – you guys only account for a fraction of the population/wealth in this country. I really am not trying to be mean – but you seem to have a myopic view of the financial and real estate world which seems to be based on your own personal situation (and those of close friends).

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  134. “HD – again, you display your egocentric view of the world. What percentage of the population does your generation account for?”

    Clio, I see your point..But the generation of 25-35 year olds are the movers and shakers of tomorrow. Their viewpoint and impression of real estate will shape the market in the next 10 years. Many in the 50+ age bracket own homes and property already..Within 20 years they will be well past retirement and not very active in the real estate scene. Our generation is what is responsible for a huge chunk of the home purchases in the future..( Ie, young families buying a first home, young professional buying first condo, and so on )

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  135. Riz,
    I agree with you – I actualy grew up in the late 60s and 70s and life WAS much simpler – a lot of things were not available. Kids played in parks/streets because there were only 3 tv stations, no cable, no xbox/video games, no DVDs, no VCRs, no microwaves, etc. I guess my point is that there were much fewer things to spend money on back then so it might have been easier to save. Things have gotten TOO fast nowdays which leads to increased stress and desire then to destress by spending money on all of the things you mentioned.

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  136. OK – I get your point.

    I also wonder why nobody realizes that there is going to be an incredible shortage of workers in about 10 years (when all the boomers leave the work force). There are not enough echoboomers to take their place. What do you guys think will happen to the job market (sure, some positions will be eliminated and others will go overseas – but there are a lot of jobs that can’t be outsourced). I am a little worried about this. We may be headed for crisis in certain industries (ie healthcare).

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  137. Clio,

    I wish I could predict what will happen..The population isn’t growing like crazy in the US but I was under the impression that it was stable..I feel like some industries need a shortage of workers though – I wouldn’t mind an economy with ample job availability. Healthcare, as you know, is a strange beast of a market..If there is a physician shortage , midlevels are always there to pick up the slack..
    I have to run though, gotta do an epidural on a woman delivering later today – she preferred delivery via midwife/nurse as opposed to the OB doc. Sad – we will probably see a huge influx of midlevels taking physician’s roles as the shortage grows.

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  138. “we will probably see a huge influx of midlevels taking physician’s roles as the shortage grows”

    translation: a lot of medical mistakes and bungled care…. everyone be warned – stay healthy!!

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  139. There wont be any shortage of workers because there will be less demand. We have already seen that in housing, cars, hotel stays, restaurants, etc. The market has stabailzed and people are living with less and as the boomers die off, some sooner rather than later, demand will fall even more.

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  140. hd – you are kidding, right? As the economy improves, there are going to be increased demands for all of the things you mentioned. Also, the boomers are going to be a HUGE part of the market in the next 20 years (think elder care industries). Remember, they have a SIGNIFICANT amount of wealth in this country.

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  141. “Cypress Hills is roughly a NYC equivalent to Albany Park or something. Hardly high end, but not remotely ghetto either.”

    What??! AHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAA! Albany Park? Are you serious?!! Have you been to Cypress Hills? Cypress Hills is a part of East New York. The crime rate has gone up while it has declined in most other parts of the city. And, bordering on Cypress Hills/East New York you’ve got:

    Bed Stuy
    Crown Heights
    Bushwick
    Brownsville
    Canarsie
    Ozone Park

    You’re high if you think that house is worth 565K and that this lady will have an easy time finding tenants who are not Section 8.

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  142. 10 years from now, when the boomers are no longer driving certain segments of the market, the 25-35 set of today will not be of much influence in the market? Come on. If fewer of them are buying, it’s just going to hurt the housing market in the long-run. Prices are still way out of whack, if you are not upper-middle class, or are willing to live in unsafe or undesireable areas 40 miles from the city center.

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  143. “If fewer of them are buying,….”

    They gotta live somewhere – so if they are not buying, they are renting = increased demand for rentals = increased rents = increased investor interest. Everything always tends to even out in the long run. Always has – always will. Don’t be naiive….

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  144. “But it looks like the data might have been wrong for the $400k to $500k range as well. I don’t have access to the MLS- so I can’t check it myself.”

    I know RF isn’t as reliable as the MLS (hahaha), but RF has, for closings b/t $400k and $500k, 7 in PR + 3 in 60068 in the last THREE months.

    So there’s a data error.

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  145. Park Ridge detached SFH Q4 analysis
    Sale Price Cohorts

    Year/closed/Median/Ave
    2009 75 $331,000 $368,918
    2010 59 $370,000 $431,914

    Cohort(thousands)/2009closed/2010closed/2009%/2010%
    $50 0 0 0.0% 0.0%
    $100 0 0 0.0% 0.0%
    $150 0 0 0.0% 0.0%
    $200 5 2 6.7% 3.4%
    $250 19 9 25.3% 15.3%
    $300 32 21 42.7% 35.6%
    $350 45 29 60.0% 49.2%
    $400 54 34 72.0% 57.6%
    $450 60 38 80.0% 64.4%
    $500 62 43 82.7% 72.9%
    $550 64 47 85.3% 79.7%
    $600 67 47 89.3% 79.7%
    $650 68 51 90.7% 86.4%
    $700 70 53 93.3% 89.8%
    $750 73 53 97.3% 89.8%
    $800 74 54 98.7% 91.5%
    $850 74 55 98.7% 93.2%
    $900 74 56 98.7% 94.9%
    $950 74 57 98.7% 96.6%
    $1,000 74 58 98.7% 98.3%
    $1,100 75 58 100.0% 98.3%
    $1,200 75 58 100.0% 98.3%
    $1,300 75 59 100.0% 100.0%

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  146. “Park Ridge detached SFH Q4 analysis”

    So, 9. In three months. Which isn’t a lot, but is certainly more than none in four months.

    And the over $400k market sales (as well as the subset of $400-500 sales) were up slightly, while the under $400k market sales were down 37%.

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  147. Milkster, you have no clue re. NYC neighborhoods. Cypress Hills rents are actually HIGHER than those of Albany Park. It’s an immigrant community with almost no Section 8! My sister used to own a 7-unit property in Cypress Hills and it was all immigrants, with $1,500 per unit. And she wasn’t even in the good part!

    The Highland Park section of Cypress Hills has had mid-sized single family victorian homes selling to immigrant professionals for just under one million. Does that sound like the hood? Market rate rents (on a per square foot basis) are higher than anywhere in Chicago outside the GZ (and probably nowadays higher than some areas within the GZ, such as West and South Loop).

    Cypress Hills is mostly Latino immigrant, with a large South Asian (Indian) minority. It’s nowhere near “ghetto”, unless you consider anything in Chicago outside of the GZ as “ghetto”.

    As for your “gee there are nearby poor neighborhoods”; who cares? Cabrini Green is adjacent to River North and walking distance to mansions on Astor. The South Loop is easy walking distance to some of the most horrible blocks in Chicago.

    And your list of “bad” neighborhoods sounds like it’s out of the 70’s.

    Bushwick has a better demographic than Chicago’s Humboldt Park, Bed Stuy is heavily gentrified in most parts, and Crown Heights, with the Orthodox Jewish population to the south, and West Indians/gentrifiers to the north was never that tough to begin with.

    Canarsie is hardly a bad area (Archie Bunker neighborhood) and isn’t even close to Cypress Hills. Take a look at a map. It’s like one of those Chicago “cop neighborhoods” on the fringes.

    Ozone Park is a nice Queens community. It’s basically the same as Cypress Hills, but much whiter (Italians). No clue why you would include Ozone Park on your list.

    And while crime rose slightly in East NY, it’s still down like 80% from 10 years ago, and is safer than half of Chicago. Brooklyn’s overall crime rate is about one-third that of Chicago’s overall crime rate. I have lived in both cities, and there’s really no comparison re. crime.

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  148. “Cypress Hills rents are actually HIGHER than those of Albany Park.”

    BG: You misread her, she wasn’t comparing rents, but where the rents fit in in comparison to tonier areas.

    I express no opinion on the rest of the disagreement.

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  149. DUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUH. Rents all over New York City including The Bronx are higher than Chicago rents. It’s a completely different market. What’s your point?

    I didn’t call Cypress Hills ghetto…but since you insist.

    Canarsie and Ozone Park are going down the toilet fast.

    This woman has still taken on too much house for her salary and situation no matter how you slice it.

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  150. The under $400k sales in park ridge are down 37% because there are fewer and fewer listings under $400k. Of course buyers are getting more for their money, much more in some cases, so they’re opening up their checkbooks again.

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  151. Moreover, BG100 –

    Take a look at the rentals on Craigslist for Cypress Hills. Virtually every ad says “Section 8 accepted” or some iteration of “must have job”. Landlords don’t have to appeal to Section 8 tenants to rent units in the nicer parts of Brooklyn. I’m basing my statements on fact that this owner is not going to be dealing with the cream of the crop from the tenant pool and that it’s going to be an iffy proposition to rely on these tenants to make her mortgage payments. Shame on the non-profit for encouraging her to take out so much debt.

    As far as Ozone Park, it’s the type of neighborhood where houses have bars not only on the first floor windows, but the second floor windows too. That to me spells high crime. And Canarsie was last a “cop neighborhood” in the 80s.

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  152. And…

    A couple of ads say they accept cash.

    Another says “good credit is a must. 600 or higher.”

    600??????

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  153. 600 is the new 720

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