Luxury Condo Living in Lincoln Park: 915 W. Wrightwood
This 3-bedroom duplex down condominium at 915 W. Wrightwood in Lincoln Park is as large as many single family homes at 2500 square feet but without the maintenance hassles associated with single family home living.
This has been a popular option for many buyers who want decent square footage but want to stay in prime neighborhoods.
The listing says it has 3 outdoor spaces, including a terrace off the family room, and 2 fireplaces.
Given the current economic climate, how does the luxury condo segment of the market fare?
Mario Greco at Rubloff has the listing. See more pictures and the virtual tour here.
See the property website here.
See the floorplan here.
Unit #1: 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 2500 square feet, 1 car garage parking
- Sold in June 2005 for $719,000
- Currently listed for $749,000
- Assessments of $182 a month
- Taxes of $9962
- Two fireplaces
Like but too expensive. 500, 550..ish?
Why not throw around an even lower number… 350ish? Let’s be unreasonable
I understand this place has curb appeal and a LP address, but as a first-time buyer in this price range i dont how this will sell at current ask, given it is above its 2005 price. (Wich is a huge psychological barrier.)
I am not a real estate expert by any means, but I did convince my wife to keep renting through ’06 ’07 ’08 (married in ’07), saying I know a bubble when I see one.
Turns out the bubble was far worse than most expected and still is not at a bottom. Yet, if i were to purchase this place near ask, I’d be in a worse off position than having purchased the unit new in the bubbly years?!
Best of luck to the sellers, but I’ve got time and $ on my side and will use it to pick up a developer or bank owned SFH in the next year or two. I dont even want to look at a re-sale place purchased after 2002, as it appears many if not most sellers are unable to sell at current market prices. (Which I understand is hard to distinguish being almost nothing is selling.)
Cheers.
$300/sf is now too expensive?
Awesome deck space. Was someone murdered here or what am I missing. I’d almost move back to Chicago for something like this
I love this place! However, 769k goes a long way in this market.
Half the space is below grade. I wouldn’t pay $500K for that, let alone $749K.
Looks reasonable. Someone should scoop it up for 699K!
Here are what other unit 1’s sell for.
Street # Str Name Unit # List Price Sold Pr Closed Date
1902 HALSTED 1 $699,900 $660,000 5/13/2008
1742 SEDGWICK 1 $689,000 $680,000 8/4/2008
1724 MOHAWK 1 $749,900 $680,900 4/9/2009
1707 SHEFFIELD 1 $699,900 $690,000 7/21/2008
2612 Orchard 1 $729,000 $699,000 9/8/2008
2333 BOSWORTH 1 $699,000
2714 LEHMANN 1N $759,000 $725,000 10/27/2008
2703 SOUTHPORT 1 $799,000 $795,000 9/29/2008
2731 WILTON 1 $849,000 $797,500 4/7/2009
1437 DIVERSEY 1W $799,900
1053 WRIGHTWOOD1 $849,000 $800,000 12/19/2008
2635 Mildred 1 $849,000 $812,000 10/31/2008
2645 MILDRED 1 $829,000 $825,000 7/3/2008
1847 Cleveland 1S $849,000 $840,000 8/1/2008
468 DEMING 1W $849,000 $845,000 2/24/2009
2224 ORCHARD 1N $849,000
1657 BURLING 1 $929,000 $895,000 9/22/2008
2014 Seminary 1 $925,000
624 SCHUBERT 1W $979,000 $934,000 6/12/2008
kinghippo,
Excellent analysis. I share your views but my timeframe is a little longer for purchasing the SFH at this point, at 3-5 years out depending on the pace of bubble deflation as well as my job situation.
This thing will never sell at this price. The problem is that they bought at the peak of the market with 95% leverage. So all they can do is set their ask price 25% above market value and pray for some sucker to come along…or come to the closing table with a lot of cash.
Sheve Heitman: how many of your “unit 1” so-called comps are duplex downs with half the living space 2-3 feet below grade? Or are you really going to try to argue that this is not relevant to a comp?
It ain’t 2500 sq ft w/o including both outdoor spaces–interior floor space is about 2300 *before* deducting walls, stairs, etc. and that’s calling the interior space 18′ wide on both floors (despite the implication on the floorplan that it is 17.5′ wide).
Unless the measurements on the floorplan are meaningfully wrong, in which case: garbage in, garbage out.
Bathrooms are small, the 2d bedroom is oddly shaped and the 3d bedroom is set up as a den, with both of them in the basement. And those FPs chew up a ton of space–I hate the fireplaces that stand that far out from the wall.
You forgot to include the parking space in the sqft measurement 😛
Price would be a reaonable starting point for a dupe up. At least $100k off for a dupe down, IMHO. Great curb appeal and decent finishes. Good location, near lake and El. 1 car parking is a problem in this price range IMHO. Taxes are spendy for a condo.
Personally, if I’m spending that much in this market, Im getting a SFR in a little less developed neighborhood.
95% leverage! The only reason this unit sold for $719k was the leverage. This was then used as a comp for others in the neighborhood. Please, for a moment, imagine a world where bozo the clown couldn’t borrow $683,000 at a fixed then adjustable rate, paying only the interest, maybe not even full interest on his ‘investment’, with the intent on flipping to Cooky the Cook four years later, all the while making a tidy profit!
Too close to the red and brown lines. Every agent in the world says “no problem” but try to resell it when the Red is rumbling by.
Thats the problem with the bubble. It amazes me our politicians and regulators were asleep at the wheel. Any tardface can come up with 36k in savings. Its not really an astounding feat. In fact I could come up with that money in around fifteen months and I’m a desk jockey.
So this person is probably a desk jockey too or even earns less, takes a gamble in the big RE pond and borrows a ton to “own” this place.
But imagine a world where they needed 144k for the 20% down. Imagine how much smaller the market would be and how much more financially prudent the potential buyers would need to be.
This place is ripe for a foreclosure and its walking zombies like this our government is scared to death will wake up and start walking away from their mortgages. This seller no longer has any skin in the game–its fanciful to think this thing will appraise out for 680k. If they can’t sell the place to a bigger fool its REO time.
And unfortunately for the seller the bigger fool population just got decimated by removing a lot of funny money loans from circulation.
720k for a CONDO, with only 5% down. LOL!
Yeah sorry buddy but people with real wealth and not poseur debt likely don’t care about the amenity of being able to stumble to Wrightwood Tap and get drunk with their post-collegiate friends. Epic fail.
$600k. Tops.
Again, that STUPID TV ABOVE THE FIREPLACE. That’s so stupid. It’s like being in a bar except it’s your own living room. I cannot wait until that fad dies. My HDTV sits at eye level when sitting on my couch; I love it that way; the way tv was meant to be watched.
That’s why I didnt want a stupid useless fireplace in the place we bought! I wanted my HDTV at a reasonable level that won’t hurt my neck to watch!
“STUPID TV ABOVE THE FIREPLACE”
I’m glad it just not me that is bothered by this. I see it a lot. I think I would just rather block the fireplace with the TV.
“STUPID TV ABOVE THE FIREPLACE”
But with where the FP is, and how large it is, where else can you reasonbly put it?
This is why the housing downturn is going to last a lot longer than most people realize. The majority of people who are currently trying to sell their condos/houses bought in 2004-2007 with extreme leverage. Since these sellers usually price their homes 20% above market-clearing levels, their homes will not sell. After their homes sit on the market for a year or two, the sellers will have to make a tough decision: stay put for another decade or walk away. And this assumes that they remain employed and generate enough income to cover their debt.
This zombie phenomenon will go on for the next year and a half and just when people start to think the market has stabilized, the next tsunami will hit: the ALT A and option arm disaster (CSFB chart illustrates this well). One fact that a lot of people have overlooked is that the dollar amount of Alt A and Option ARMS that will reset in 2010-2011 is nearly the same size of subprime… And we all know what happened with subprime. The difference with Alt A and Option ARMS is that the “nicer” neighborhoods will not be spared. At some point, prices in Lincoln Park, Lakeview, etc. will decline. It will just take time.
“the next tsunami will hit: the ALT A and option arm disaster”
It’s been hitting for 12+ months and is on-going. An update of the legendary chart would show it, but everyone still relies on that old data.
This is another reason I am sitting out of the RE market for the next five years or so and planning on waiting for these to work through and then the dust to settle.
I am not going to take my money and invest in this asset class while there is still funny money loans floating around that have yet to recast and adversely impacted valuations on the upside when they were issued.
I am not going to play in the sandbox with the other kids (“home loanership”) just because it is the “in” or adult thing to do. No, I am going to take my toys (money) and go home. See you guys in five.
According to this chart:
http://financialranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/ivy-arm-reset-schedule.png
The real alt-a tsunami doesn’t start for another few months.
“The real alt-a tsunami doesn’t start for another few months.”
Yes. And by the time everything really hits the fan, it will be at least a year.
Totally correct on the 3 and 5 yr arm resets scheduled to hit shortly. But the dollar amount at risk is much higher than the sub-prime(with regards to home value). I can’t recall the exact numbers but I think the average subprime home was 170k ish while the average adjustable rate was something like 425K!
“According to this chart”
That’s 15 months old, at minimum, w/o clicking the link, based on the address.
Clicking the link, it’s the same dman CSFB chart with data from December **2006**. THIRTY (30) months ago. There are 30 months of defaults not reflected by that chart.
And, if y’all (HD, Bob, etc) are right about the Alt-A/Option ARM borrowers being right on the edge*, then a TON of them have been defaulting all along since that data was originated. Which was my point at 1:20pm.
*I do too, in general.
“But the dollar amount at risk is much higher than the sub-prime(with regards to home value).”
Who cares about the average (besides the individual borrower)? It’s the aggregate that matters.
And, if you treat the linked CS chart as the gospel, Alt-A is TINY compared to subprime, while Option ARMs are sort of close–but they’ve been busting out like made for over a year in the sand states where they were much, much more prevelant.
No, no, alt-a borrowers were finally sophisticated financial wizards who got that way by listening to their mortgage brokers. Why pay principal on a $500,000 mortgage or even both with a down payment? That’s like flushing your money down the toilet! Don’t work for your money – let your money work for you.
The subprime ARM resets on a monthly basis total more but the alt-a tsunami is for a longer period of time; which makes sense because subprime loans generally reset after 2 years but Alt-a’s and such are generally 3 or 5 years or more until reset.
“Sheve Heitman: how many of your “unit 1? so-called comps are duplex downs with half the living space 2-3 feet below grade? Or are you really going to try to argue that this is not relevant to a comp?”
Every single one of the comps I listed were duplex downs. Thanks for asking…
Sheve Heitman: how many of your “unit 1? so-called comps are duplex downs with half the living space 2-3 feet below grade? Or are you really going to try to argue that this is not relevant to a comp?
Every single one of the comps I listed were duplex downs. Thanks for asking…
“without the maintenance hassles associated with single family home living”?
I’m not sure about that. Try managing a building with two other people you don’t know from Adam. I can imagine an awful lot of hassles.
Why is this ARM reset such a concern to all of you and why is it finally going to sink LP? Everyone I know in LP has refinanced or is in the process of refinancing at below 5%. Most are enjoying housing payments that are much lower than rental rates.
By the end of 2009 everyone I know will be sitting with a 30 year fixed at 4.75%. Are you guys living in the “Cribchatter” bubble or what?
Hey Sabrina – Are you going to highlight 410 w Webster again? It is under contract after 1 week on the market. You guys are really funny with your predictions and basic lack of knowledge. Seriously 🙂
And just like Sonies every household you know makes $100k a year too, right? Who’s living the bubble?
“By the end of 2009 everyone I know will be sitting with a 30 year fixed at 4.75%. Are you guys living in the “Cribchatter” bubble or what?”
Honestly HD, I don’t know anyone that does not make well over $100k. I live and work in a neighborhood where people have good jobs and make a lot of money. It is not a sin…
4.75% on the jumbos Steve? Cmon, it can’t be happening? Is everyone in Lincoln Park over educated and this smart? Wow, I’m in the wrong neighborhood!
“And just like Sonies every household you know makes $100k a year too, right? Who’s living the bubble?”
HD, he’s talking about people who own SFHs in 60614. They all either make well over $100k/yr or bought they’re house before you started high school.
Maybe LP is a bubble, but that doesn’t make Stevo factually wrong about the individuals he’s discussing; although they certainly not a representative sample of the broader population.
I never said Steveo was wrong – I said that he was in fact the one in a bubble – after he accused us of being in the cribchatter bubble; the bubble being an unrepresentative sample of the broader population.
“although they certainly not a representative sample of the broader population.”
It’s interesting to look at the shill’s list of sales. Forget about those that occurred in a long-ago market. Here is additional info on the sales since 4Q08.
Note that the 3 resales were all money losers. Take out a min of 5.5%-6% for transaction costs and the reality is even worse.
Street # Str Name Unit # Sold Pr Closed Date Prior SP Prior Close
1724 MOHAWK 1 $680,900 4/9/2009 $730,000 9/12/05
2714 LEHMANN 1N $725,000 10/27/2008 $745,000 10/18/06
1053 WRIGHTWOOD1 $800,000 12/19/2008 $842,000 4/17/07
2635 Mildred 1 $812,000 10/31/2008 NEW orig listed 1/30/08 $869,000
468 DEMING 1W $845,000 2/24/2009 NEW orig listed 5/31/07 $925,000
2731 WILTON 1 $797,500 4/7/2009 NEW orig listed 12/1/08 $849,000
Under contract with last listing price shown (contract price unknown):
2333 BOSWORTH 1 $699,000 NEW orig listed 1/7/09 $729,000
1437 DIVERSEY 1W $799,900 NEW orig listed 8/11/08 $849,900
2224 ORCHARD 1N $849,000 orig listed 9/11/07 $899,000 sold $722,500 9/26/02
2014 Seminary 1 $925,000 NEW orig listed 2/2/09 $975,000
Oh G!! I was not even pointing out gains or losses but simply making a point on duplex downs. It is funny how market data from June of last year is considered “old” but your october data is solid.
The market today is 100% better than it was in any part of the Sept 2008 – Feb 2009. May & June closings will be real market values. I say this because things have again normalized. The period I mentioned was anything but normal as only “fear” sales occurred. I assume prices will soft with May and June closings but they will give us all a real look at what the new market is.
If you disagree with me on this you are just plain old dumb.
I am having the following framed –
homedelete on April 22nd, 2009 at 3:19 pm
I never said Steveo was wrong
“Everyone I know in LP has refinanced or is in the process of refinancing at below 5%.”
How does everyone refi when a lot of their current LTV’s are above 100%. I guess “everyone” must be coming out of pocket with huge equity infusions.
The latest government act, the HARP plan, allows refinancing up to 105% LTV. So they’ll get some appraiser-shill in on the game to only put down an appraised value at most 5% below their cost basis and boo-yah, more awesome mortgage fraud to save a few bucks.
“May & June closings will be real market values. I say this because things have again normalized.”
So Lincoln Park will get out of one of the biggest housing busts unscathed (or maybe down 3% as I am told by all the agents out there), when the rest of the country has experienced 20+% declines in values. I hope it’s true, but have a real hard time believing it.
“I say this because things have again normalized.”
Based on what data?
Home owners with option ARM mortgages that will reset in 2009 and 2010 face an average monthly mortgage payment increase of 63 percent. These resets peak – get this – in August of 2011 based on the dates option ARMs were let. So, given these realities, what is the ultimate default rate going to be in the coming quarters? Is it going to be just 29%?
Ratings agency Fitch sees it at around 45%. Goldman Sachs says 61%. Whitney Tilson, an analyst with Amherst Securities covering this market better than most, believes option ARM defaults, as a class, could go as high as 70%. Moody’s recently downgraded Wells in part due to option ARMs, saying the 29% number is probably too low and will have to continue to mark down assets through 2009 and 2010.
Where are these option arms. I have been in this business for 10 years and have never once closed a transaction (buy or sell) with someone on a option ARM. Are these just in lower income neighborhoods?
“Based on what data?”
Based on the fact that I and my partners are extremely active in LP, LV, and Old Town. So to answer your question… based on my own data.
Lincoln Park had inventories of as low as 10 and as high as 20 months supply from Sept of 2008 – Feb of 2009. As of today, Lincoln Park month’s supply is 5 months. Do you need any further data or do you see my point. The very best we experienced over the past 10 years was 3 months supply. To say we are almost at the best levels of the past 10 years tells me properties as priced right again and moving just fine. The people that purchased at top dollar over the past few years will lose 5% or so. That is it for the LP condo market. Some will lose more and some will actually turn a profit. Will it get worse from here? That depends on the economy and how qucikly we can see GDP turn positive.
I again must emphasize that I have stated for the past 16 months that Lincoln Park never appreciated very much and will not fall all that much. In addition, it is a neighborhood in high demand and will always attract the most qualified buyers. Sure there were some that over extended themselves but the vast majority did not.
So the question for the board is as follows: Is a 5 month condo supply a healthy number or a number that indicates the market is crashing?
As a realtor I’m sure you actively read each client’s loan documents at the closing table and provided sound financial advice. That’s the realtor’s job, right?
“Heitman reserached this. You can do this.”
“Steve Heitman on April 22nd, 2009 at 6:33 pm
Where are these option arms. I have been in this business for 10 years and have never once closed a transaction (buy or sell) with someone on a option ARM. Are these just in lower income neighborhoods?
“
HD, yes I do. I know everything about every aspect of my clients deal and I pay particular attention to what the other side is doing if I am on the sell side. You see HD, in my 10 years I have yet to meet an attonrey that gives a rats ass about any part of the deal, including doing what is necessary to keep it together. All the old attonerys do is fax fax fax and write the words “agreed” or “no” on their templated attorney letters. I have never met an attonrey that commented on the terms of financing, read the by-laws and meeting minutes, or reviewed the inspection report. This is after 10 years on the job. Where were these great attorneys when all these people were getting option ARMS and subprime loans? That’s right, not giving a shit. The attorney aspect of a simple purchase or sale is a joke. They DO NOTHING!
The reason I make a lot of money in this industry is that I do all the things that no other party in the transaction takes the time to do. I not only find a fairly valued property for my client, but I also diligently review the condo docs and assess the buildings health. I not only review my clients financing but I sit with my clients and call 5 – 10 banks to find the VERY best rate and closing costs avalable. I am the first to review the HUD and ensure the charges are legitimate and accurate. I calculate the all so tricky attorney tax and assessment prorations, and I (not the attorneys) am the one my clients come to with any and all questions about the entire process. You see HD, I do it all from start to finsish…
I think this unit is an OK price. It will sell for somewhere between 699 and 725
I’m sure your clients appreciate your zealous representation of their interests but quite frankly I don’t see why anyone would give so much power to their realtor. Furthermore, you obviously do not understand what benefit attorneys provide in a real estate transaction so you dismiss their services uniformly; and if you don’t realize why we’re at the closing table after 10 years in the industry, I’m not going to bother trying to explain it to you here.
However, there is one issue I want to address:
“Where were these great attorneys when all these people were getting option ARMS and subprime loans? That’s right, not giving a shit.”
I don’t think this is just an attorney issue but also a realtor issue and a borrower issue too. Everyone in the transaction ceded trust to the mortgage broker who in his own self-interests sometimes totally screwed the borrower. Most of the time the lender was in on it too.
Sometimes I showed up at the closing and the loan package (usually e-mailed half an hour to an hour late) contained different information from the pre-qual/approval paperwork. Of course the mortgage broker was no where to be found, there was no one at the bank who was willing to talk to you about the terms of the loan, and if you could get someone on the phone (usually at 3:00 pm on a Friday afternoon) they would tell you to take the terms of the loan or walk away from the entire deal. I’m not exaggerating.
One time I had citibank tell me they would not change a particular term and if my clients didn’t like it they could find another lender. Which means the entire deal would be scuttled, everyone would be pissed off, the buyers would often be left without somewhere to live for 2 weeks while they found another lender and so on and possibly lose their earnest money….in fact I was the one often holding up the closing trying to correct these things.
Furthermore, I found the most difficult issue was trying to explain these loans to the client. Their eyes would glaze over, even the wealthiest ones, they just didn’t care. They had their mind made up that they were going to buy this house today – to the detriment of everything else. They were swept up in the mania.
Who the hell was I to tell my client “I think this house is too expensive for your income?” or “in my opinion this is a terrible mortgage product” or “I don’t think you make enough money” or “you have bad credit you are a high risk you shouldn’t be owning a home?”
In hindsight you cannot tell those things to the client. They get offended and they don’t want to hear it. They just want me to make sure title is clean and that the drop list was taken care of.
Once, I tried to tell these things to a good friend when he bought a second home and tried to rent out his first. I said, “friend, you are buying an extremely expensive home with a risky mortgage product and in my experience these situations don’t end well” and he said “you have to take risks to make money, real estate is always a good investment, and besides, I’ll just sell or refinance in 5 years.” You can easily surmise how well that worked out for him.
In conclusion, I tried just as many other attorneys tried to counsel, but just like the old saying goes, you can lead a horse to water but you cannot make him drink. This doesn’t absolve us from liability, or the realtor for steering the client into a home too expensive or a mortgage broker for finalizing the shady loan or the bank for going along with the broker’s shadiness or even the buyer for being swept up in an irrational mania. On some level we’re all responsible for this mess and going forward we need more checks and balances.
sorry for the long post but i’ve wanted to address this issue for a while.
“So the question for the board is as follows: Is a 5 month condo supply a healthy number or a number that indicates the market is crashing?”
We had the lowest number of sales for condo units in LP in 21 years in March. I wouldn’t call that “healthy”.
What I’m seeing in LP (and elsewhere) is that people are simply not listing their properties unless they have to. At this time of the year, there is usually a flood of listings and I’m still waiting to see that. So, I’m not surprised if the inventory has fallen in LP.
Two things are happening:
1. Those that couldn’t sell have withdrawn their properties to wait it out.
OR
2. Those that want to sell know they can’t (without a loss or a significant impact to their bottom line) so they’re waiting it out.
It’s all about the sales- which continue to be near record lows but I await the April sales data so see how that compares with, say, 1997 or 1998 (which was a “normal” market.)
“Hey Sabrina – Are you going to highlight 410 w Webster again? It is under contract after 1 week on the market. You guys are really funny with your predictions and basic lack of knowledge. Seriously”
Steve:- I don’t know what you’re talking about.
410 W. Websters history:
Listed for $799,000
Bought it for $751,000 in 2004
And your point is?
“Who the hell was I to tell my client “I think this house is too expensive for your income?” or “in my opinion this is a terrible mortgage product” or “I don’t think you make enough money” or “you have bad credit you are a high risk you shouldn’t be owning a home?” ”
This is where your relationship with your clients is different than mine. I tell my clients what to do and they listen. I tell them the risks over and over again until they understand what these loan programs mean (ARMS, I/O, ect), why it is beneficial to some and why it is a major risk to others. Once they understand, I allow them to make the right decisions for their situation. They always do.
Is it my responsibility as the broker to do all this oversight? Not at all. I do it because no one else cares enough to do it. I also do it because I understand EVERY ASPECT about a real estate transaction and people look to me for help. This is why I have so many happy happy clients.
So when you consider how complex a real estate transaction can be (values, neighborhoods, building health, financing, closing costs, inspections, negotiations, ect, ect) who is responsible for overseeing that this poor buyer is protected? Is it the broker, lender, attorney? Sadly, it usually is no one. everyone is ususally in it for the quick commission (including the attorneys) and no one is really looking out for the client’s best interest. This is why you have to find an expert (on the enitre process) if you hope to reduce the many risks associated with buying or selling.
As to who was responsible for all these poor people ending up with option ARMS? The answer is simple, it is THE BANKS. They set the rules and opened the door for all of this and are the ones who understood the risks. They are the ones with IVY LEAGUE educations and took advantage of the poor borrowers. The truth is the people that ended up with option arms realisticly had no idea what they were signing up for (nor did the LO brokering the loans). The BANKS 100% understood and simply did not care.
The truth has been spoken!
Sabrina – Your last comment showed your simple ignorance. If you want to know how the market is doing you have to look at contarcted properties and not what has closed. I just made a point that April exploaded with contracts and you want to see April closed activity to see if I am right? April sales came from February and March contracts. You will have to wait for May & June closing to see if I am actually right (which I already know I am).
On the inventories Sabrina, you may want to check your math again. Here is the total listed units for the past 3 years.
March 2009 – 910 units listed
March 2008 – 849 units listed
March 2007 – 946 units listed
All these people just waiting to list??? You again have no idea what you are talking about. Want to know why there were so few closings in March???? Because there were only a combined 37 contracts written in Dec and January and 29 of them closed in March. There are now 158 properties under contract. that’s right, 158 properties under contract compared with 29 closings in March. Last year 100 properties closed in May. Do you think this year will be better than last. I think it will.
So here is your problem Sabrina. You are backward looking (by at least 2 months). Try and understand what is happending in the market today. People already know what occured 2 months ago….
I have to agree with Heitman, the market is booming right now. I don’t meen prices are going up but the market is getting back to normal. That is booming compared to where we were.
We should all be happy and not so dissapointed that things are recovering.
The negativity is quite strong.
OTR,
Yeah honestly you and Heitman have convinced me to share my anecdotal observations of this building. Once while walking to WW Tap I saw a few mid 20-somethings bring some beer into one of the units here. I can’t prove they were owners, but they definitely seemed at home and not like they were visiting somebody from the manner in which they entered.
Is there old money in America and could they be part of this caste? Sure. Maybe they just know the owner really well or its one of their or their GFs dad, who nows. All I know is my anecdotal observations don’t support the pricing here. Yeah my opinion is not scientific but I believe no way this places sells for even close to 2005 price.
From what I have experienced in the past 9 months is the market here in Chicago (and NY and Florida where I do the rest of my business) is indeed getting back on it’s feet. It is not all gloom and doom that is frequently discussed here on CC.
From chatting with agents, brokers and potential buyers all seem to now be seeing some hope in the market after many had lost all hope of returning to business as normal, although getting offers of asking or above has slowed down. I also think bidding wars will not resurface for awhile unless there are desperate and extremely motivated sellers who are trying to keep their credit scores solid.
The only segment of the market that is not rebounding as quickly is the high end luxury market…I believe that will be the last segment to stabilize as the era of conspicious consumption is over and will be for some time.
I enjoyed this thread. It had a good mix. Bullish realtor, bearish realtor, re attorney, re investor, potential buyers etc. This is fun. Good points all around. I know where I stand. Time will tell! (And thanks for the compliment Bob)
“Furthermore, you obviously do not understand what benefit attorneys provide in a real estate transaction”
Unless you know the lawyer personally, the correct answer is zero.
There is something funny about a lawyer trying to defend his position to a realtor.
Prior to buying our place in Chicago in February, we had purchased three residences in DC, one in Northern Virginia, and our current home in Wisconsin. We had never used an attorney in any of purchases or sales. While the attorney we used for the Chicago closing was a nice person, I’m not sure what value he added that the realtors and the closing companies in DC, NoVA, and WI didn’t do equally as well.
Welcome to Chicago Steve A. If you think this city is governed by efficiency I think you’re in for a shocker.
You should not need a JD to be a real estate attorney. Their job is completed by people without law degrees every where else, why is it so different here. I understand what they do but I am just saying a qucik CE class could teach us all. The difficulty is the equivalent of a realtors job. High school degree required:)
Good luck getting lawyers out of it. You’re fighting an uphill battle. The alternative is going into escrow and however long that process takes.
As far as I’m concerned, this is a benefit. The attorney’s interest is not tied with “doing what is necessary to keep it together.”
I don’t want any of my agents focusing on keeping a deal together. If the deal’s not in my best interest, then they should let it fall apart.
That’s the problem with realtors; they are wholly focused on their commission. It’s a systemic issue with compensation, not unlike mortgage brokers. If you get paid on volume alone, do you really care what you’re closing…?
Heitman – “You see HD, in my 10 years I have yet to meet an attonrey that gives a rats ass about any part of the deal, including doing what is necessary to keep it together. “
“We should all be happy and not so dissapointed that things are recovering.
The negativity is quite strong.”
Hah! Not on Cribhater, where people who can’t afford the home they want come to bitch about it.
Bradford – That is the truth, it seems there a lot of bitter people who want all the successful people to fail so they can buy their homes.
If you want to live in a better neighborhood you should get a better job! It is a real simple formula…
For those who would prefer data to the misdirections of the SHill, here are the number of Lincoln Park listings entered and contracts for 4/1 to 4/21 for each year.
We now have declining values in LP (as even the SHill admits,) and sales haven’t really picked up at all.
I know I’ve asked this many times, but what do you suppose it will take to get sales moving again? I say further price declines. I anxiously await the sales volume increases.
Contracts
4/1-4/21 Attached Detached Total
2009 74 9 83
2008 71 9 80
2007 108 9 117
2006 108 10 118
2005 138 14 152
2004 114 15 129
2003 119 17 136
2002 97 12 109
2001 75 13 88
2000 85 12 97
1999 96 19 115
1998 124 19 143
1997 105 17 122
1996 105 18 123
1995 82 11 93
Listings Entered
4/1-4/21 Attached Detached Total
2009 164 36 200
2008 151 39 190
2007 183 30 213
2006 201 37 238
2005 229 38 267
2004 174 31 205
2003 194 29 223
2002 207 38 245
2001 175 38 213
2000 125 19 144
1999 115 35 150
1998 144 31 175
1997 131 28 159
1996 127 28 155
1995 139 25 164
G – Are you claiming that my 5 months or condo suplly is wrong? What do new listings have to with the point I was making? Are new listings not just old listing that are being listed again? Your daya has so many wholes are really supports nothing.
Were there more contract written in 2009 or 2008? Did I say there would be more closings in 2009 then in 2008? Is months supply down from 12+ to 5?
Are you a shit head? Yes!
Honestly G, what is the world does the data you liusted support? Show me where you see a declining market? Did it decline in 2001?
I know the appraisers are going out of business and I do feel bad for you.
SHill,
By all means, share with us the methodology and data behind your claims. Do you even know what it is?
I showed the listings data to shed some light on what Sabrina said about listing activity. Please feel free to share what your “inventory” number represents. Do you even know?
Just a quick question that I’m sure someone here can answer. Are buyers and sellers REQUIRED to hire attorneys for real estate deals in Illinois?
I bought and sold a condo in D.C. without an attorney on either end. In fact, when I sold the condo, I did a FSBO without any problems. The buyers’ title company handled all the paperwork – – I only had to make sure I was comfortable with the sales contract.
I’m hoping to buy here in Chicago in the next year or so. How are things different here?
Thanks!
“Are buyers and sellers REQUIRED to hire attorneys for real estate deals in Illinois?”
No. Custom and practice, but certainly not “required”.
Well G, my numbers represents total listings on the market and the % of those listings that are under contract. This gives you a forward looking months supply and allows you to understand the current status of the market. You then can compare this number to the trailing months closed properties and make an determination on whether the market is improving. Does this make sense to you are should I explain this in more detail. I am never sure who I am dealing with and how basic o make things.
So now you tell me what new listings represent and how to determine the status of the market using this number? Are new listings really new lisitngs, or are new listing expired and canceled listings being relisted? Maybe a combination of both. To use your new listing number you also have to consider “expired” and “canceled” listings to fully understand what you are talking about.
To you feel smarter now G?
SHill,
The contract data clearly shows your claims of increased activity have been greatly exaggerated.
The market was set to correct in 2Q01. Instead, concerted actions by the fed, wall st, govt and other market players resulted in an even greater inflation of the housing bubble.
I have said this all along, nothing will get sales moving again except for declining prices. So far, the declines have only managed to spark record-low sales levels. It will take greater declines to increase sales volume.
I look forward to increased sales volume, as it will signal the long overdue return to affordability.
Attorneys have the least important role in the entire transaction BY FAR. However, the attorney shows their worth when something goes wrong and that is when you want an attorney involved. They are kind of like an insurance policy more than anything.
Most people get into trouble with their real estate transaction because they spend too much time trying to save money in the wrong places. They try to cut out a realtor to save the 3% commission, but over pay for the place by 10%. They get a bad mortgage broker trying to save .125% on the rate only to have the deal blow up at the closing table and wind up with the wrong mortgage or a rate actually .5% higher. They skip the inspection trying to save $400 only to find out the roof needs $10k worth of work after closing.
Are there realtors, attorneys, and mortgage brokers not worth a dime? Sure. However, if people spent more time trying to find the really good ones instead of saving $5 bucks the transactions wouldn’t be such the nightmares that we always hear about.
why would people list when they know they will have to bring money to the table? Money which they don’t have, if I may point out. Most folks I know are just sitting tight and repeating to themselves — “My home equity will come back”
So G, I love your excuses for the lower volume back in 2001 but you did not answer the question.
What did your data support? What was the point of what you listed and how is relavent in analyzing the market? You said you were looking for higher volume. Were there more or less contract written in 2009 than in 2008? Is this the higher vloume you are looking for?
Don’t list a bunch of crap data w/o showing us what it means. What did it mean?
“Well G, my numbers represents total listings on the market and the % of those listings that are under contract.”
“March 2009 – 910 units listed
March 2008 – 849 units listed
March 2007 – 946 units listed”
What day of the month does it refer to? How are cancelled and expired handled in those numbers? How about if they relisted or not?
You have no idea what those numbers represent.
Bradford and Steve H-
I can only speak for myself of course, and am not an everyday blogger on this sight, but have made comments on this thread being this would be a type of place I might be interested in.
I’m not upset about the places I’m interested being out of my price range, I can afford them now.
But the upside vs downside potential in doing so is still terrible as I see it. If I buy now and we’re near the bottom then, then in 5 five years, if i need out, i’ll probably break even. (Considereing inflation, selling expenses etc.) But if this crises continues to get worse (which is the only thing it has done so far), the downside is much greater.
Every persons situation is different and from my angle the risk/reward ratio is still not near a justifation for a purchase, especially of a ’02-’07 re-sale.
(The exception would be bank owned or shortsale properties, which in some cases seem to be good deals.)
Regards.
I just looked at G’s data again and someone please explain how you would use this data in a relevant way?
Anyone?
“Don’t list a bunch of crap data w/o showing us what it means. What did it mean?”
LMAO.
Stevo:
You wrote above: “Hey Sabrina – Are you going to highlight 410 w Webster again? It is under contract after 1 week on the market.”
Please explain how you calculated that “one week” on the market.
Let’s hear it then G. You dismissed my data and said “here is the real data”. Now please explain to us but your BS means? Explain it or simply admit you have no idea what you are talkign about. I know this already but share it with the rest of us. Do you have any idea what you are talkign about?
SHill,
I didn’t dismiss your data, I merely pointed out that it was part of a misdirection on your part.
Is there any regular here who doesn’t know why I post sales volume/contract volume? Heck, I even said it a couple of times in this thread.
You don’t have any idea what those inventory numbers that you posted represent, do you?
Okay G, you can dodge the question if you would like but I am still curious. You posted contracted properties for April which supported my claim that the market has picked up, and then you posted new lsitings for April. I again muct ask, what was your point? You said the following –
“For those who would prefer data to the misdirections of the SHill, here are the number of Lincoln Park listings entered and contracts for 4/1 to 4/21 for each year. ”
Please explain what my misdirection was and how what you data actually supports. You said it and not me. Either tell us your post didn’t really mean anything or tell us why it did mean something?
Here you go G “Well G, my numbers represents total listings on the market and the % of those listings that are under contract. This gives you a forward looking months supply and allows you to understand the current status of the market. You then can compare this number to the trailing months closed properties and make an determination on whether the market is improving. Does this make sense to you are should I explain this in more detail. I am never sure who I am dealing with and how basic o make things.”
Now let’s hear your numbers and how they are relevant to anything other than taking up time and space.
Anyone else curious?
Steve:
Please explain how you calculated “one week” on the market for 410 Webster, when it has been listed for much longer.
Steve Heitman:
Another honest question: How does 158 u/c and 910 listings = 5 months supply? Looks like ~6 months.
Also, still an honest question, please tell us how you calculated “one week on the market” for 410 Webster. Or was that just a mistake?
Anon – you can round up and I will round down. The current listing at 410 Webster was 12 days old when the property went under contract. I think we all know it was listed at $899k prior. The property went under contract in 12 days after being relisted at a new price. Is that better?
+1000 (Except for the first sentence which I give -1000).
“#Edumakated on April 23rd, 2009 at 8:53 am
Attorneys have the least important role in the entire transaction BY FAR. However, the attorney shows their worth when something goes wrong and that is when you want an attorney involved. They are kind of like an insurance policy more than anything.
Most people get into trouble with their real estate transaction because they spend too much time trying to save money in the wrong places. They try to cut out a realtor to save the 3% commission, but over pay for the place by 10%. They get a bad mortgage broker trying to save .125% on the rate only to have the deal blow up at the closing table and wind up with the wrong mortgage or a rate actually .5% higher. They skip the inspection trying to save $400 only to find out the roof needs $10k worth of work after closing.
Are there realtors, attorneys, and mortgage brokers not worth a dime? Sure. However, if people spent more time trying to find the really good ones instead of saving $5 bucks the transactions wouldn’t be such the nightmares that we always hear about.”
Anon – The point of the entire thread was that everyone was saying how overpriced this was at $799k. I simply pointed out that it is under contract after 12 days at this “over priced” price.
Make sense now?
“I say this because things have again normalized.”
So, the contracts for 4/1/09-4/21/09 are normalized to you, based on the historical numbers I posted?
“Another honest question: How does 158 u/c and 910 listings = 5 months supply? Looks like ~6 months.”
As Stevo said our education system in America is failing an awful lot of people. Its hard to argue with him on that one given his fuzzy math.
Normalized compared to the period I continue to refer to as the “Fear” period (spet 2008 – Feb 2009). The answer to your question is yes, they have normalized in this context.
Looks more 5.75 months. Happy now you tool!
The entire point was that is down from over 20 months just 3 months back. You are concentrating on a decimal point?
Tool!
HD;
If all the other parties do their job correctly, the attorney isn’t needed hence why numerous states do not have them involved. If the realtor did their job, the purchase contract should be fine… if the mortgage lender does theirs, there is no need to go over the mortgage docs. Of course, the big assumption is if everyone does their job.
Not saying everyone always does their job, but at most closings, the attorney is just explaining closing docs that I know as a lender I have already discussed and explained to the borrower. Half the time, I have to explain to attorney what the stuff means.
It is only when there is a big disagreement or one party is trying to be shady about something that I find attorneys to really show their worth – sometimes.
Most residential real estate attorneys are hardly “biglaw” types and the intellectual brain trusts that the title attorney tends to convey to the public for some unknown reason.
“Most people get into trouble with their real estate transaction because they spend too much time trying to save money in the wrong places. They try to cut out a realtor to save the 3% commission, but over pay for the place by 10%. ”
Are you kidding me? I had to tell my realtor that we are lowballing much lower than he thinks we should… and guess what… THE DEAL GOT DONE ON MY TERMS!
Never have a realtor negotiate something as important as price and incentives! They will always be pussies about it because they want to get the deal done!
Sonies – You are correct about 75% of realtors. Don’t forget that 95% of the population does not know if the true value of a property is $300k or $400k. Tough to low ball without this informtion.
“Normalized compared to the period I continue to refer to as the “Fear” period (spet 2008 – Feb 2009). The answer to your question is yes, they have normalized in this context.”
So, it is normal to be at historic lows?
Are you going to share what makes up your inventory numbers. I should say, the inventory numbers you read off the mls?
How are expireds, cancelleds and relistings treated in the monthly numbers?
Steve:
I asked about the calculation of months to clear b/c you said that you took into account a bunch of other stuff. I was actually curious what you considered to move the number down. You responded with your typical lashing out.
Why so bitter and paranoid, man?
My invesntory numbers are made up of all currently listed properties. I know this is a tough concept for you G but it really is as simple as that. Expired and cancelled listings are not included (just as they were not included in the previous years data i supplied) and relisted units would be considered listed so they would be included.
Are you really this dumb?
Sorry Anon – I can not repeat enough times that LP froze during this “fear period” and nothing moved. Prior to this time the market was soft but not falling out of bed. We have returned to the soft period that we were in prior to the “fear” period. The market is again transparent and people can make rational decisions about the benefits of buying. Part of this of course is interest rates below 5%.
“March 2009 – 910 units listed
March 2008 – 849 units listed
March 2007 – 946 units listed”
What day in March are these numbers from, if they represent “currently listed properties?”
Like I said, you have no idea what these inventory figures represent. You just pressed a button.
They represent the March 31st inventories for each year listed. Would you like me to pick March 28? would that work better for you?
“They represent the March 31st inventories for each year listed.”
Are you sure about that?
Okay G, spill the beans. What is your point??
This will sell for $675-$700, I prefer the duplex up Mario Greco is listing on the block for $650 (although I would be more in the $575k price on that unit).
This closed yesterday for $715,000