Market Conditions: Agents Warn of No Appreciation for the Last Four Years
The Chicago Tribune describes the increasing desperation of sellers as the middle of summer fast approaches and the window for selling is quickly closing (at least for selling during the “peak” selling season.)
It’s the middle of July, and home sellers are starting to feel the pressure.
Elmwood Park resident Dan Gongola is among them.
A month ago, he listed his gutted and rehabbed five-bedroom, four-bath octagonal bungalow for $549,900, almost $25,000 higher than his real estate agent advised.
“I said maybe I’d get lucky,” he said.
On July 2, with few showings to speak of, he chopped the price far below his agent’s original suggestion. The new price tag of $485,000 is a reduction of almost 12 percent from the list price.
Sellers are lowering prices- but how low are they going?
Some data off the MLS is misleading because a property can be cancelled and then re-listed and the listing history (days on the market and price reductions) wiped off of some of the “official” statistics.
As of Thursday, 31 percent of Chicago-area homes listed for sale had at least one price cut, compared with 29 percent of listings in June and 26 percent of listings in April, according to Trulia Inc., a San Francisco-based provider of real estate data. Nationally, 24 percent of homes on the market have had at least one price cut.
Drill deeper into the data, though, and that 31 percent local average is healthy compared with what’s going on in some neighborhoods. In the East Loop near Millennium Park, prices have been cut at least once on 43 percent of the listings, with an average reduction of 6.6 percent. In the sections of Lincoln Park and Logan Square that make up the 60614 ZIP code, 35 percent of the listings have price cuts, with an average reduction of 8.2 percent. In Elmwood Park, sellers have slashed, by an average of 9.6 percent, prices on 40 percent of the listings.
“Sellers say, ‘I’m not going to give it way,’ ” said Randy McGhee, an agent at Koenig & Strey GMAC Real Estate.
“If you want to sell, you will be giving it up for what you paid for it or less in the last four years. If you want to sell it and you’re thinking of a reduction, don’t wait until September. Do it now.”
But many other sellers are opting to try to rent out properties and wait for better market conditions.
“My last three buyers and a current one only want to see foreclosures and short sales because they believe that’s where the deals are,” said Kimberly Oehmke, an agent with @Properties.
“It’s hurting the person who has a great property and isn’t in the short sale-foreclosure predicament,” she said. “Anybody that is not a short sale, we just beg our clients to rent it out, just hold on until next year.”
Chicago housing prices drop even faster [Chicago Tribune, Mary Ellen Podmolik, July 13, 2009]
I’m not a fan of renting it out:
1) Do you really want to be a landlord with all the headaches?
2) You won’t be cash flow positive
3) The market is not coming back any time soon.
Market times are pretty much increasing across the board but not the way the industry reports them. The industry reports market times of properties sold, which is biased. That only captures properties that were priced well enough to sell. However, when you look at overall market times you see a pretty much dramatic upward trend, which tells me that you have this large overhang of properties that are over priced. We just redid our market time graphs to reflect this. They can be found here: http://blog.lucidrealty.com/chicago_real_estate_statistics/ second from the last graph with links to individual neighborhoods at the bottom of the page. Unfortunately, our inventory graphs won’t be updated until later today.
Prices headed back to nominal 1999 prices within next two-three years. This is our ‘Lost Decade.’
“My last three buyers and a current one only want to see foreclosures and short sales because they believe that’s where the deals are, ”
That what most people think until they start looking closely, then they usually find these “deals” are not really such great deals after all. It’s not so easy to find a good prop in a good ‘hood at a short sale price.
“It’s not so easy to find a good prop in a good ‘hood at a short sale price.”. This is unfortunately all too true, but, it is very easy to find an overpriced property languishing on the market, many of which are becoming short sales or foreclosures. Check the foreclosure pipeline next spring.
“Sellers say, ‘I’m not going to give it way,’ ”
More like they _can’t_ give it away. But the bank can.
Best not to deal with people beholden to an inflated mortgage balance because they bought during the peak. They don’t have a lot of leeway in negotiations until they enter financial distress.
““If you want to sell, you will be giving it up for what you paid for it or less in the last four years. If you want to sell it and you’re thinking of a reduction, don’t wait until September. Do it now.””
Everyone is running for the exits!
Why are banks so hesitant to let home owners short sell? The first few years of a mortgage are pure profit for the bank so wouldn’t they be breaking even with a short sale?
“Why are banks so hesitant to let home owners short sell? The first few years of a mortgage are pure profit for the bank so wouldn’t they be breaking even with a short sale?”
Um because they want to keep those profits? Banks aren’t in the business of “breaking even”. They are in the business of making shitloads of money.
Banks aren’t properly staffed or trained for short sales, which are a relatively new phenomenon. Short sales are an enormous bureaucratic nightmare for everyone involved so reluctance from everyone is expected, although I hear they are starting to go a little quicker.
“Why are banks so hesitant to let home owners short sell?”
If the debtor is still paying every month, the answer is obvious.
If the debtor is no longer paying, no reason to agree to a short sale since a foreclosure will take longer to reach price “discovery.”
The govt and banks have decided that the best course of action is to kick the can down the road and hope for something. What that something is isn’t very clear.
Gary, glad to see you come around on the market time deception. I have mentioned this to the SHill several times. I believe our hostess has too.
Next, you might want to consider what constitutes the “total listings” in a month that is utilized in the “industry’s” inventory calculations.
Gary,
Thanks for the information, I appreciate the graphs. It is really interesting to see the new “troughs” year by year as the wait times increase.
“The govt and banks have decided that the best course of action is to kick the can down the road and hope for something. What that something is isn’t very clear.”
Basically pain in the future isn’t as bad as pain today I suppose is the mantra. With the TLGP program’s debt issuance expiring on 10/31/2012, it is suspiciously close to the next election.
In the acronynm soup of the various government bailouts, the TLGP is probably one of the biggest government crutches the financial system leans on. It isn’t clear how much confidence is in the system with true private market debt so we’ll have to wait until after this October to see. (Max maturity is three years).
Bob, Please post some pics of your 700/mo rental. I’m not trying to be a jerk. I’m just dying to see this place.
what?
G,
Funny you should mention inventories. That’s actually why I said our inventory numbers aren’t ready yet even though I actually have them posted on the site. Over the last week we’ve redone them twice as I’ve settled on an appropriate measure. I finally decided to use (active during month – went under contract)/went under contract. If you don’t agree we could have an interesting debate on this.
Hope to have them posted later today but what it shows for Chicago as a whole is months of supply for June were actually down over last year – but not really prior to June.
Once all the charts are ready I’ll post on the comparison of these revised measures to the “official” measures.
My rent is $735 but looks like rents have dropped in the interim..
http://chicago.craigslist.org/chc/apa/1267252374.html
What a “dump” huh? HAHA! Less than half the cost or less than the poseurs who buy 250k 1/1s..
Gary, if by “active during month” you mean at any time therein, then we have no debate. If you are ignoring the expireds/canceleds, then we do.
$695 for a studio in good condition in Lakeview? When I met my wife she was living in a crappy studio in Lakeview for about the same rent and that was nearly 10 years ago. My my it looks like we have a lost decade for rents too.
CH actually wound up winding me up. Not his question but my discovery that my future neighbors are going to be paying $40 less/month than me.. 🙁
I know to you hotshots in doormen buildings with pools think thats small potatos but remember this is $1 beer Bob we’re talking about here.
Investories should be as simple as (pending properties / active properties). Cancelled properties are properties that are no longer ont he market just as closed properties are properties no longer on the market. You can’t speculate on why someone take a property off the market and doing so is not being realistic.
The forward looking inventory absorbtion is (pending + contracted / activce listings)
Is anyone suprised that inventories went down in most neighborhoods? Not me…
for example – There are 863 active attached properties in Lincoln Park. Of the 863, there are currently 179 under contract. This represents 21% of the current inventory under contract or roughly 4.8 months inventory.
Gary – How is Lincoln Park’s inventory compared to late 2008 and early 2009? Has it improved?
SHill, I love your continued confidence in your “forward looking” data when you blew your May and June LP sale volume calls by so much.
Only morons look back for predictions on the future! That explains alot about you G!
Let’s see, I think I predicted back in March that the forward looking data on LP looked very positive. Now was that prediction accurate? I advise my clients on what I see. Was my opinion on the market correct or incorrect?
Remember G, you are a moron 🙂
What the Tribune should be “warning” about is that there will be no appreciation for the NEXT four (or likely more) years.
“Let’s see, I think I predicted back in March that the forward looking data on LP looked very positive. Now was that prediction accurate? I advise my clients on what I see. Was my opinion on the market correct or incorrect?”
It seems pretty clear that G thinks your predictions were inaccurate. My recollection is that you predicted sales would be up in May and June.
The stats I have seen agree with G’s assessment; if you think you were right, Stevo, could you please tell us in what sense you believe that to be the case (instead of blathering)?
sucks for you bob 40×12=480 …so your neighbor can drink nearly 500 more bottles than you next year. But will that have an effect on the quality of tail he brings home? guess we’ll have to wait and see.
“But will that have an effect on the quality of tail he brings home? guess we’ll have to wait and see.”
With an extra 480 btls/annum I think he has some extra help in the ‘quality of tail’ he brings home, at least from his perspective.
yes, the lenses of his goggle will be that much stronger.
That place is a good deal for $695. I must admit.
Oh Anon – In the face of a economic crash and with all you yahoos predicting the end of the world, I went out on a limb and said sales would be higher in June than in 2008. I was off by 10 properties which I would say is pretty darn good.
Bottom line is I was correct that market would improve dramatically and you and your girlfriend G were wrong.
“I think I predicted back in March that the forward looking data on LP looked very positive.”
SHill, That was your “forward looking” data that led you astray, not mine.
Was 2008 very positive? You predicted May and June closings would exceed 2008, which they did not (and which were at 20 year lows.)
Here are some facts about the 2nd Quarter 2009:
LP attached sales volume was down 22% from 2008.
LP attached sales volume was down 40% from the average of the previous 20 years.
LP attached sales volume was at the lowest level in 20 years, even without adjustment to reflect the large number of new condo units in that time.
What exactly is positive about 2009? That same straw man again that seems to give you confidence as you slay it: That LP is not as bad as Englewood?
“I went out on a limb and said sales would be higher in June than in 2008. I was off by 10 properties which I would say is pretty darn good.”
Typical lie from the SHill. Verifiable, too:
http://cribchatter.com/?p=6671#comment-35013
Steve Heitman on May 2nd, 2009 at 4:53 pm
“Sales will be flat or slightly higher for May and June. You look in the rear view mirriw and I will look at what is coming.”
May 2008 = 115
May 2009 = 79 (-31%)
June 2008 = 110
June 2009 = 97 (-12%)
“Bottom line is I was correct that market would improve dramatically and you and your girlfriend G were wrong.”
Ah, going the blather route. Typical. And I guess the only avenue open, as your prediction was–in fact–not correct, in all reasonable meanings of “correct”.
Here’s what I had to say at the time of the SHill’s prediction:
G on May 3rd, 2009 at 7:43 am
“I also look forward to correcting your sure to be incorrect analysis of the market change.”
Oh G – That is where you honestly are a moron. We just went through a true economic crash. In Dec and Jan there were 16 contracts written in Lincoln Park. That is the equivalent to the end of the real estate world and also the equivalent to 30 months supply of properties. The question at that time was what was going to happen going forward?
After looking at data coming out in February and March it was clear to me that the market was moving in a very positive direction. I think the current sales data and the current month’s supply of 5 months proves I was correct.
I am not sure if you are ignorant or just an idiot but I think everyone will agree tha using data from q2 (which included months of March and April data that were dependant on Jan and Feb contracts) is simply not a rationale data point for current market conditions. The question intelligent people ask is what is the market doing today? The answer should be that market inventories have come down from 30 months in Jan to 5 months today. What does that data point tell you G? Is the market getting better or getting worse?
You are comical.
“market inventories have come down from 30 months in Jan to 5 months today. What does that data point tell you”
That there is a seasonal effect?
Honestly, if you think that that one data pair–with no historical comparison–means anything, you’re more dishonest than I had thought, Stevo.
“The question intelligent people ask is what is the market doing today?”
How about this one: Who includes March data in Q2?
I am comical, given my ability to make everyone laugh at the SHill.
Here’s something fun illustrating the price to income bubble: http://tiny.cc/WUpaW
^^^ Yes but this ‘Housing Happiness’ comes with no happy ending..
Wake me up when we’re back at 1999 pricing. Right now only the $hithole have dropped that low; the turnkeys are still asking above the 2005 price, which, in my opinion, is an abomination
“Wake me up when we’re back at 1999 pricing.”
Do you mean ’99 pricing for places in 1999 condition, or newly-constructed/reno’d places for the price of similar-sized and -located places in ’99?
“the turnkeys are still asking above the 2005 price, which, in my opinion, is an abomination”
Grab some popcorn man. Once CIT goes under small and medium biz’s are gonna fold left and right. Once the TLGP is no longer available after October, you’re going to see a lot of banks/financing companies with duration mismatches go kaput. Our government is interfering in credit markets allowing companies to borrow at rates far below their market risk adjusted equilibrium rate should be. You can only keep a false economy propped up for so long with smoke, mirrors and government stilts.
1999 pricing? Given the economic backdrop I think we’re going to go lower than that. Don’t look for this to happen at a breakneck pace its going to take a few years.
I agree with that guy John who said 2014. Thats the earliest I see sanity returning to the housing market. That doesn’t mean if I don’t find a great deal before then I won’t jump, though. But it would have to be a truly great deal.
Chicagoland CS index at the trough? Chicagoland will hit 80 or lower sometime in the next decade.
Oh and Lincoln Park specifically? I could give two craps about as I don’t want to live near Stevo 😀
Please wake me up when the late 90’s sales prices on Redfin for NW side properties are virtually identical to current asking prices. It doesn’t matter the condition, age, size or location, all properties are heading back to 1999 prices, not adjusting for inflation. It’s hard to fathom but they’re going to call the ’00’s the ‘lost decade’ for good reason.
G,
You and I are totally on the same page. I’m looking at any listing that was active at any point during the month. I do not remove cancelled/expired.
Steve,
Lincoln Park months of supply was up over last year in June. Graph will be posted later today. The fact that it’s down over late 2008 and early 2009 is like saying it’s warmer now than it was then. That’s a seasonal effect.
They are going to call the ’00s and the ’10s the lost score, actually.
Everything our government is doing looks straight out of the Japanese playbook. Guess how the Japanese economy looks today vs. 1989?
Hey Homedelete – Does that mean reverse gentrification will occur? There were gangs in Lincoln Park back in the 90’s. Are they going to put Cabrini green back up as well?
I’m moving to Naperville.
Steveo, the wealth remains all that changes is the name on the mailbox.
Okay Gary – what are the city’s inventory numbers and then what are Lincoln Parks? Are they similar or does one stand out as being strong?
Just curious…
Oh and back on topic, nobody is going to buy this doofus’ Octagonal art project for 485k either. Banks aren’t giving out half million dollar loans for art projects anymore and the truly rich would rather have paintings.
Octagonal house? LMAO the design sounds about as funny as the initial and current ask prices.
I will now include Gary, G and Anon in the same boat. To call the market improvement from Jan to June “seasonal” is like calling Gary’s company “full service”.
Show me another year where the inventory data was as high as it was in Jan and I will give you a free month in your studio.
^^^^
Stevo we’ll be in touch perhaps next February? 😀
I’m throwing a kegger in my studio if I get a month free on Stevo. It will *ahem* be standing room only, of course 🙂
Steve’s the kind of guy who will argue that the sky isn’t blue until he’s blue, just because he can. Every dufus knows that the Jan/Jun comparison is seasonal, that’s why the NAR releases the existing home sales numbers as seasonally adjusted.
So in Jan 2008 there were 9.5 months inventories on the market. The following June that number was down to 5.3 months, or a net change of 4.2 months decrease. In Jan 2009 there were 34.1 months inventories on the market. The following June that number was down to 6 months, or a net change of 28 months.
Typcial seasonality, right?
“all properties are heading back to 1999 prices, not adjusting for inflation.”
So, that $1.5mm (listed) teardown down the block from you will sell for the $350k that was teh neighborhood’s most expensive home in 1999? That’s what I’m trying to get out of your prediction.
Can I see unreno’d-since-pre-1980 homes in Portage Park selling for the same nominal price as 1999 in 2014? Of course. But that’s not *necessarily* the takeaway from your drumbeat, HD.
“To call the market improvement from Jan to June “seasonal””
Yes, and calling your prediction that May and June 2009 sales in LP would be higher than May and June 2008 sales correct is like calling Stevo an honest broker in what he posts here.
“Octagonal house? LMAO the design sounds about as funny as the initial and current ask prices.”
Octagonal Bungalow. With the large “bay” in the front. It’s like saying two-flat or four-plus-one–it has an established meaning, but you (apparently) haven’t heard of it before. The house is *not* literally an eight-sided, residential-sized version of the Pentagon.
“down from 30 months in Jan to 5 months today”
“34.1 months … down to 6 months, or a net change of 28 months”
“roughly 4.8 months inventory”
You’re all over the place, dude.
And you count contracts w/o any revision based on actual closings?
“I will now include Gary, G and Anon in the same boat. To call the market improvement from Jan to June “seasonal” is like calling Gary’s company “full service”.”
That is fine company to keep. Gary’s company is “full service.” It’s just the “lower cost” that upsets the SHill.
I mean, really, the SHill has yet to post any pertinent data here and Gary’s website is chock full of data. And with Gary having his “come to jesus” moment about how “industry” data is reported (and distorted), the resultant changes in his presentations have skyrocketed him up the realtor chart.
Meanwhile, the SHill just keeps lying or slaying straw men of his own creation. If you can make sense of his ramblings at all, that is.
Anon – there is a difference between “June #’s” and “today’s #’s”. we are in the middle of July.
Let’s talk about your “seasonal” quote.
“Anon – there is a difference between “June #’s” and “today’s #’s”. we are in the middle of July.”
Okay, then show your work. Your computation skillz have repeatedly been shown to be faulty. You haven’t given anyone any reason to trust any assertion you make about data w/o presenting the actual data.
Anon(tfo) of course the 1.5 teardown won’t sell for 350 but you need to use comps for the area which will put us at an average of 1999 or better.
“you need to use comps for the area which will put us at an average of 1999 or better”
What does that mean?
What do I mean? 2011 is going to be the 2006 price at half off or better.
“What do I mean? 2011 is going to be the 2006 price at half off or better.”
No. What does “you need to use comps for the area which will put us at an average of 1999 or better” mean. “the 2006 price at half off or better” doesn’t clarify any part of the first statement.
If you have an area where all the 1999 sales were 60s-era bungalows and all of the 2006 sales were 3500 SF behemoths wedged onto the 25x125s (which is exageration, but not absurdity for much of the NW-side), to return to “99 or better” either the remaining un-reno’d bungalows are the only thing selling or the big houses are selling for $350k and the un-reno’d bungalows are selling for 50% *less* than 99 prices.
Steve,
OK. we just updated all the inventory charts but not the commentary yet. The link again is: http://blog.lucidrealty.com/chicago_real_estate_statistics/ Additional links at the bottom of that page to individual neighborhoods. If you’ve been to those pages recently you should probably do a F5 to clear cache just to be safe.
What you will see first and foremost is a clear seasonal pattern. Not sure how you can argue about this. Also, the city overall improved in June from last year but Lincoln Park got worse. Keep in mind we’re looking at the middle market – 2 – 3 bedroom condos.
As for our company….well…we’ll just let the clients decide.
Okay Gary – So does your graph show that we are currently in a very seasonal normal market in Lincoln Park?
Was it a seasonally normal market in Dec/Jan?
Steve,
You must not be looking at the graphs. They clearly show that the last 12 months have been much worse than the previous 12 months in Lincoln Park.
SH is an idiot. I work for a real estate company (but we dont sell RE ;-)) and even our CEO openly and readily admits in our monthly earnings reports that the increases were seeing as of late are because of the “seasonal” effect and we will see a drop off come fall. SH = IDIOT!
That’s purely a hypothetical. It’s hard to comp the mcmansions but it’s not like I’m looking at those. we all know that upgrading and renovating usually isn’t a 100% return on the investment, things like roofs and hvac return very little money at all. For example somebody I know bought a house in 1997 for $200k, made some upgrades, good bones, maybe the basement is dated, at the height of the boom it was worth in the$400’s but today comps are selling at $260k and this is a fairly desirable surburban neighborhood. Sure there are some total renovs and mcmansions but his house is going back to the low $200s which is exactly where he bought it 12 years ago, and I expect most residential average ‘hoods in Chicago with long term residents to do the same. It’s not that difficult of a general concept to understand. America is poorer, we’ve borrowed our way into a whole, and our lower incomes are going to be reflected in lower housing prices.
“If you have an area where all the 1999 sales were 60s-era bungalows and all of the 2006 sales were 3500 SF behemoths wedged onto the 25×125s (which is exageration, but not absurdity for much of the NW-side), to return to “99 or better” either the remaining un-reno’d bungalows are the only thing selling or the big houses are selling for $350k and the un-reno’d bungalows are selling for 50% *less* than 99 prices.”
Furthermore, 2006 was nearly a record sale year, plenty more sales than there are now; I highly doubt the only sales in 2006 were 3,500 sq ft behemonths on 25×125 lots and 1999 sales were 60’s era bungalows.
“That’s purely a hypothetical.”
Yeah, I know. And you’ve been fighting the implied hypo, until I realized I needed to hit you over the head with it to extract a coherent response.
Roofs and HVAC aren’t reno–they’re maintenance. If they’re crap at the time of purchase, you need to deduct that from the offer, not expect to recoup any “investment” upon sale.
$200k in 1997 is $266k now. So if comps are selling for in $260s, then that’s “1997 pricing” in real dollars.
You’ve expressed in the past your desire to purchase an updated, turnkey SFH on the NW side for the “typical” (my word) nominal price of a 1999 SFH (i.e., about 30% less than the 1999 price). If by “updated” you meant “no major deferred maintenance problems”, then I misunderstood. If you’re okay with mid-80s decor, but less than 10 year old appliances/HVAC and general compliance with current code re electric and plumbing, then yeah, you should be able to get an OIP-ish/JP-ish house for $275k sometime soon. If you want “typical” sales of “better” houses (what I think of when I think “updated”–newer kithcens and baths, windows, etc.) in those neighborhoods at those prices–I think you’re going to be disappointed.
“nominal price of a 1999 SFH (i.e., about 30% less than the 1999 price). ”
LOL! I can get $ beers and my cost of living aside from housing, despite being in a major city, has gone down over the past 8 years.
The government does various things to coax a CPI number they prefer. For instance excluding food and energy. Today the WSJ started excluding autos and gas to show a declining trend. If you want to pick 30% and claim it a yardstick, fine. I’d guess much less.
Three major trends though that won’t support housing demand:
1) credit has and will remain irrecovably harder to obtain in the future than it was during the bubble
2) the rate of ‘home ownership’ in America will decline from historic peaks
3) once a building is built, it is a sunk cost & the most economical use from it is for it to be inhabited and providing cash flows (regardless of whose name is on the title)
With record inventory coming online this year and next I don’t think it looks good any time soon for non-prime and overbuilt hoods.
Want to know the areas where you’ll get the best deals on housing in the next few years? Look in the areas with the lowest occupancy % and the amount of inventory coming online. West & South Loop that is you.
Instead of ‘best deals’ I should rephrase that to refer to: % of decline from peak pricing.
Nah, older properties like bungalows in OIP are already in the low $300’s and the turn keys are in the high $300’s, low $400’s. I figure based on my household income and a conservative income/price ratio that turn-key properties sfh’s will be in the high $200’s and low $300’s by the time we start rounding the ‘bottom’ and prices will stay in that range for nearly half a decade. I’m pretty typical for my ‘hood and there’s no reason to think that I couldn’t afford here. Now I’m not expecting the north shore to be at those price levels nor do I expect SFH’s in LP or LV to be there either but figuring higher incomes and higher debt/income ratios would put an ‘average’ sfh in the $400’s and $500’s for LP, mcmansions and exceptionally nice homes would obviously be more.
$340K 3810 N Hamlin
$397K 3723 N Pulaski
$275K 3812 N Kildare
$375K 3851 N Keystone
$335K 4022 N Kilbourn
Gary: Thanks again for providing the links to your excellent graphs and information on inventory and days on the market.
Yes Gary – We all love to seeing data from the past. It really helps us make intelligent decisions for the future. Can’t wait to see what the Case-Schiller will say happended back in April. This data will certainly help shape my real estate investments going forward. LOL!
Wow. June data is outdated?
What I’m seeing right now is a real slowdown in the number of listings coming on the market (city wide.) It’s noticeable.
It’s a little early for the number of listings to slow that dramatically. I usually see that in September/October.
Are possible sellers sitting on the sidelines waiting for next year already?
And what will that do for all the buyers waiting to snatch up a property this year? It will make demand high for the few properties on the market and cause pricing to further stabalize.
Supply and demand
I know there is a bunch of animus and adversary towards the SH. And I’m not a fan either, ideologically speaking. But to me it seems there is a almost dedicated informal conspiracy to try to cut him down on these here intertubes.
Being the fan of the underdog and the intertubes here’s to hoping he stays around awhile.
Sorry folks but theres bigger villans than de ol’ SH. Get over it.
This is the intertubes and nothing you say here will likely impact RE reality. So I’m asking to stop the pile on routine.
Stevo clearly can’t deal with the cognitive dissonance. You can’t argue real estate with him. If you give him facts, he will argue about the validity facts to no end while providing only anecdotal and other statistically invalid data points. When all else fails he will optimistically project an alternate future outcome.
I’ve been looking at real estate. It’s still la-la land. I think I might make an offer in October when sellers need to account for the prospect of another 6 months in carrying costs.
Steve,
Interesting debate strategy. Now that we’ve demonstrated that the data doesn’t look like you claim it does you take the position that the data is irrelevant.
The data is relevant because it tells us that the overhang is getting really painful for sellers and that further price drops are coming – and yes, even in Lincoln Park.
“Nah, older properties like bungalows in OIP are already in the low $300’s”
Yeah, and what did they sell for in 1999? Low-200s? High 100s? Low 100s?
From your examples:
4022 N Kilbourn–it sold in 2004 (!) for $180k (!!!) and in ’05 for $310k and in ’07 for (an almost-certainly fraudulent) $604k (!!!!!!). If you treat the ’07 sale as a typical sale, then yeah, 2/3s off ’07 average makes sense. But for that house to go back to 1999 nominal prices, it *still* needs to drop by over 50%.
And if it really only has one bathroom (per trulia, best I can do), that doesn’t qualify as a “turnkey, updated” SFH to me.
3851 N Keystone: Sold for $125k in 1997. So 1999 price is like $135-145k. Even with only 1.5 baths, that’s not likely.
3812 N Kildare: Don’t know what to say about that. That’s a low price and from the outside it looks fine. And it’s a 60′ lot. Strikes me as non-arms-length, but that’s w/o any basis.
3723 N Pulaski: This one fits what I consider “updated”–and it’s a 4/3. But it’s on Pulaski and appears to have basically no backyard. And it still was $400k.
3810 N Hamlin: This one was untouched. It’s got a 50s-era kitchen and the listing said it “needs some TLC and updating”–which, when it makes the listing, means more than “some”. Nice enough, but neither updated nor turnkey–not even close. So this one still has 50% or more to drop, HD?
Yes anon(tfo) prices will keep dropping including the turnkey properties.
” my cost of living aside from housing, … has gone down over the past 8 years”
You say this a *lot*, Bob. Which makes me curious–what constitutes your “cost of living”?
I am quite certain that the things I buy that I also bought 8 years ago (i.e., groceries, booze, utilities, clothing, entertainment, travel (aside from airfare)) have gone up, but then I don’t buy new electronics and computers on an annual (or more frequent) basis, so maybe that’s the bulk of your cost of living.
“Yes anon(tfo) prices will keep dropping including the turnkey properties.”
Yes, they will. But your target number is a further 60%+ drop from the recent sales you picked out. Which I think is unlikely.
It’ll happen. This is a real estate depression and ita going to take years and years to happen.
Fixed expenses: rent, CTA pass, gym, electric, car insurance, cell phone for fixed costs, in that order. Variable costs of eating out a lot and gas for the car.
Whats gone up? Rent, CTA pass, electric, gas. Everything else has gone down. The example I showed yesterday shows that rent has actually remained flat as well for new tenants.
Nowadays there is deep discounting in the food service/bar industry and I can get lunch for under $5 and have a weekday evening out for under $15, a weekend evening out for under $30. None of these variable costs have changed substantially over the past five years, in fact the deals have gotten better.
I definitely see deflation in that for the past couple months I’ve had underages in my budget to the tune of a hundred bucks or so. Its not me consciously being more frugal or changing habits its just the deals are better.
“car insurance”
Dude, you turned 25 in the last 8 years. Of course your insurance costs went down–that ain’t deflation.
“cell phone”
Has the cost gone down, or are you getting more included? I never have used all my minutes, so the cost has gone up (slightly, sure) for me.
“there is deep discounting in the food service/bar industry”
Ah, if only I frequented the same establishments (and drank the cheap stuff). My regulars have all had clear increases in prices since 8 years ago. Flat for the last 2, sure, but higher than 2001 without a doubt.
Even clothing? clothing seems really cheap these days.
Sure much of it is improvements in quality or quantity with the cost remaining the same. Cell phone is now unlimited plan at $47/month vs. $44/month metered before. Car insurance is going down as my newer car depreciates more so maybe an outlier.
Drinking the cheaper stuff? Yeah used to a lot, still do a bit. But nowadays I can drink the premium stuff at a deep discount for twice a week, used to be once.
For dining out lets not forget fast food restaurants are killing themselves in competition for my sub $8 lunch. I remember in undergrad paying north of $6.50 for a Subway footlong and that was in a cheaper cost of living area. These days its $5.50.
Aside from rent and government taxes (due to keeping government workers on a benefits package that far outpaces the private sector) my cost of living has declined from eight years ago. If you’re willing to shop around for deals on rent that could’ve remained flat too.
The government’s take does seem to be growing with each successive year however. Not sure if that is counted with inflation but it should be.
“Steve,
Interesting debate strategy. Now that we’ve demonstrated that the data doesn’t look like you claim it does you take the position that the data is irrelevant.
The data is relevant because it tells us that the overhang is getting really painful for sellers and that further price drops are coming – and yes, even in Lincoln Park.”
That is interesting Gary – I see a 100% broken market back in q4 2008 and q1 2009 that is now moved back to equilibrium from June data. Combine this with relatively stable pricing and I don’t see where you are getting continued price declines. Is the average Lincoln park 2 bed, 2 bath price moving higher or lower and by how much?
Gary – Month’s supply is down below 5 as of today. Please explain to me how that is pointing to more pain for sellers?
Listings are down.
“I remember in undergrad paying north of $6.50 for a Subway footlong and that was in a cheaper cost of living area. These days its $5.50.”
See, I haven’t been in a Subway in probably 15 years. It’s totally irrelevant to my life.
“nowadays I can drink the premium stuff at a deep discount for twice a week”
What’s the Map Room’s Tuesday special now? Wasn’t *that* long ago (okay, it was) that Sam Smith’s bottles were $2 (they upped it to $3 after we drank all they had 3 times in about 5 weeks). Find me the place with $2 SS Oatmeal Stout and I’ll buy you *two*, any night of the week.
Steve,
The data I’m looking at shows June 2009 at 7.2 months of inventory vs. 5.9 last June. That’s pointing to more pain. Sounds like you are pulling data as of today but I don’t know how you are calculating it so I won’t argue with it. We’ll just wait and see if the picture changes next time I update this.
Please explain how you determined that the market has moved back to equilibrium and that pricing is stable. You ask about the average price of a 2/2? I don’t care. The averages are totally irrelevant. They are mix dependent – a function of what is being listed and what is being sold. What really matters is how sales prices compare to previous sale prices – which I intend to get to.
When brokers (and entry level buyers) altered the traditional neighborhood boundaries to make everything in the 60614 zip code read LP, it’s no wonder sales/price figures are lower than they should be. Clybourn and Ashland are thrown into the same statical pile as Cleveland and Belden? So why isn’t Wells & Hubbard (60610) considered the GS when Astor & Schiller (60610) is? ONLY in Chicago could firms like Dreamtown (check out their neighborhood maps) get away with this. I know, lets make 63rd and King ‘LP South’ – sounds great for a tenth of the price, and some 20/30 ‘never had any real skin in the game’ thing, will eat it up.
The one positive thing about the RE mess, is that the old rules will become the new rules: 20% down, actually live in your house, have a job, and LP (the real LP) will still be solid.
Homedelete – Are listings really down? Let’s see the facts and see if any variance is meaningful.
Total June Lisitings
2009 – 906
2008 – 869
2007 – 943
“Are listings really down? Let’s see the facts and see if any variance is meaningful. ”
Bet we see different numbers from someone else.
Stevo–how do you account for the cancellation rate? Or is that another “past” thing that you ignore because you are a “always forward” kind of guy?
Anon – Inventory #’s do not include cancelled listings.
The bumbers posted are all attached Lincoln Properties per the MLS.
“Inventory #’s do not include cancelled listings.”
I meant cancelled contracts. Haven’t cancellation rates been rather high over the past 12 months?
“all attached Lincoln Properties ”
What about detached? I couldn’t give two figs about LP condos.
I work in the detached market and that is what I have posted
“I work in the detached market and that is what I have posted”
But see: “The bumbers posted are all attached Lincoln Properties per the MLS.”
Stevo, please clarify! Are there really 906 SFHs for sale in LP?
What does “Total June Listings” mean? What day of the month were they counted? If not an actual total, how were they calculated?
We have been over this before. I prefer to track the number of properties actually listed in a calendar month. Here are numbers for LP attached single-family:
Year Q1 June Q2 H1
2005 851 235 808 1659
2006 775 298 825 1600
2007 747 278 837 1584
2008 683 230 660 1343
2009 591 192 589 1180
G – So your numbers include all the agents that cancel and relist properties again and again?
If the question is “What is the inventory count”? There is only one may to calculate this number. It is all the currently active properties. If they are not listed then they are not part of the inventory.
The problem isn’t with determining active listings today for the inventory calculation. The problem lies in what the SHill used in his June inventory numbers.
I repeat:
“What does “Total June Listings” mean? What day of the month were they counted? If not an actual total, how were they calculated?”
I never said I used the listing data I presented for anything more than historical comparison. They have nothing to do with inventory calcs as they are presented.
I use the last day of any given month. However, I check active listings on the 1st, 10th, 20th, and 30th of the month. The #’s always follow the ultimate month end trend so there is no “tricks” being played.
Did I mention that you were a tool? 🙂
I repeat “G – So your numbers include all the agents that cancel and relist properties again and again?”
You are dumber than I even thought. and that is pretty dumb.
Article: Home Ownership was never a road to riches
WSJ: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203739404574290052495887922.html
and what was the original topic of this thread again? Do you regs work at all?
I just don’t see the need to have this topic dissected to a point where you all are just arguing in circles. It should be as simple as “there are currently XXX SFH on the market compared to XXX last month and currently there are XXX attached units on the market compared to XXX attached units last month”
END OF STORY!!!
BTW, I don’t think the upper class of turnkey units will be reducing that much more in this selling season. Those who have already been reduced once, just might reduce a small % once more then I think they will ride it out over the fall and winter.
Medium priced houses will continue to have their prices reduced until they sell…or if the owners are bright and are not forced into selling, they will rent instead of sitting empty over the winter.
In my portfolio, houses 2 and 3 have been completed in June, been inspected and were ready for tenants to move in. Both are priced higher than units around them and I had no time getting the rents I asked for. Unit #2, a 2/2.5, A/C, parking and W/D (all of my places include AC and WD, most of them are new) rented for $1775 in three days and unit #3, a 3/2 rented for $2200 in one week.
I have always made it a practice of having very low deposits if the tenant can provide good and verifiable credit reports/work histories. It seems this practice allows me to keep good tenants over a long period of time and they do take care of my houses.
They may not be selling at the prices I needed them to sell at, but the rental market is sailing along at a good pace with no need for major reductions in rent.
For those renting who are expecting a major reduction in rents over the next year, I would not count on it at all. Since no one is buying now and staying in their rentals, owners know their properties can command high rents and they will still be taken. Supply and demand.
“It should be as simple as “there are currently XXX SFH on the market compared to XXX last month and currently there are XXX attached units on the market compared to XXX attached units last month””
Apparently distinguishing b/t SFH and attached is difficult for some here.
Might I ask, what’s your approximate cap rate on your invested $$ at those rents? You getting 7% (w/o accting for vacancy)?
“For those renting who are expecting a major reduction in rents over the next year,”
The next year is too small a timeframe for me to possibly make an accurate prediction. As others have said different developers can hold out for differing amounts of time before cutting prices.
Heres a study expecting a 2.4% decline in Chicago rents with lots of data:
http://www.redcapitalgroup.com/Research/Reports/RCH-IL-001_Chicago_1Q09.pdf
I read another one recently expecting a 5% drop in rents.
When talking about downtown I would assume the demand is relatively stable or declining slightly (number of people that want to live downtown), however the supply is growing by leaps and bounds this year and next. Will lead to lower prices is my prediction.
“In my portfolio, houses 2 and 3 have been completed in June, been inspected and were ready for tenants to move in. Both are priced higher than units around them and I had no time getting the rents I asked for. Unit #2, a 2/2.5, A/C, parking and W/D (all of my places include AC and WD, most of them are new) rented for $1775 in three days and unit #3, a 3/2 rented for $2200 in one week.”
Those are not high end rents for units like those in Chicago, if they are as nice as 0 says over and over and over. Must be a secondary location.
“Supply and demand.”
We’ve been over this, as long ago as February 2008 http://cribchatter.com/?p=2083#comment-2146
Increased vacancies and rent declines are the norm now. The downtown rental supply has grown around 25% since 2005 alone. Are we supposed to believe that demand will grow commensurately? Rents are linked to incomes and employments levels, how are those indicators doing?
W/O vacancies factoring into the equation, my numbers man is projecting a 7-8% cap rate on these two places. Considering that these two props are my lowest investment cost units, I am happy with that projection.
Re: rental rates being lowered in the near future, I just don’t think it will happen here in Chicago.
I was speaking to a RE broker friend of mine in Phoenix this weekend regarding my thoughts of taking all unsold properties off the market and going rental with them for the next 3-5 years.
Even though I have my places spread out over 8 different regions, he is behind this decision as I still would have rental income flowing. Since I have utilized no mortgage for any property I have purchased, this rental income would be clear minus the basic operating expenditures. In that aspect, I am ahead of most owners who are forced into renting their places.
His agency handles a 50/50 mix of sales and rentals. While the sales division is at an all time low, the rental portion of their operation is as busy as ever. The rental rates have actually been increasing over the past 6 months due to those who are facing losing their properties, most of which are second or third homes. Rather than allow that to happen and to avoid having their houses sitting vacant incurring damages, many have removed their homes from the market and instead are renting them.
Given that most of these owners have never dabbled in being a landlord, the initial asking prices have been pretty high. In most cases he said he does not try to influence them either way and much to his surprise, these new landlords are getting the inflated rentals they are asking for.
I thought about doing the same thing…pricing at the highest amount I could, but rather than let greed lead me, I have priced them accordingly.
Am I going to make a killing out of being a landlord? Not at all close to what I would make if all my current projects were to sell, but rather than to let these places sit unoccupied, I will take the rental $$$ and be happy with that amount. I will reevaluate this situation in six months to see what I should do at that time…but for now, no sales (or new purchases) for me.
LMAO 0. That shill doesn’t expect you to check any facts.
Phoenix is flooded with foreclosures that investors/knife-catchers are “snapping up”. Do you suppose that their cost basis is lower than those who are pulling off the sale market and renting out? Of course, they will be the next round of foreclosures as rents continue to decline and the new investors have an even lower cost basis.
How do the unsellable “second or third homes” hitting the rental market do anything but increase rental supply?
“Deals abound for bargain-hungry apartment renters” http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/2009/07/16/20090716biz-rents0716.html
“Metro Phoenix apartment rents down 5 percent” http://www.azcentral.com/members/Blog/CatherineReagor/51324
The link to the AZ Multifamily Housing Assoc report is not working, but it is here: http://www.azama.org/news.asp?NewsID=1199
LMAO 0. That shill doesn’t expect you to check any facts.
Phoenix is flooded with foreclosures that investors/knife-catchers are “snapping up”. Do you suppose that their cost basis is lower than those who are pulling off the sale market and renting out? Of course, they will be the next round of foreclosures as rents continue to decline and the new investors have an even lower cost basis.
How do the unsellable “second or third homes” hitting the rental market do anything but increase rental supply?
“Deals abound for bargain-hungry apartment renters” google it, link will appear after comment passes moderation.
“Metro Phoenix apartment rents down 5 percent” google it, link will appear after comment passes moderation.
The link to the AZ Multifamily Housing Assoc report is not working, but it is here: google it, link will appear after comment passes moderation.
“Those are not high end rents for units like those in Chicago, if they are as nice as 0 says over and over and over. Must be a secondary location.”
These two particular homes are in Chicago. I actually underpriced them so the lucky new tenants do have a lot of house for their rental dollars.
Never once have I claimed that I was marketing my rehabs only towards an upscale, high end clientele have I? Only a few of my rehabs are in that category. I quickly realized after moving here that true luxury homes just are not appreciated here and the income for such is just not here on the scale it is in NYC or LA.
The first and largest group of houses I renovate (60%) are designed and intended for professional singles or young families who are first time buyers. I focus on making the homes very efficient, practical and every square inch is utilized even if it calls for a gut rehab for a usable and practical layout. There is always the option for the owner of these places to decorate daringly to reproduce the look and feel of a high end unit, but the main focus is on practical and efficient living. Definately not your simple everyday tract house.
The next group of houses we do (30%) are geared towards those who are ready to upgrade their residences or need more room for a growing family. Also, people seeking a second, third or vacation house would go for these places. This group is a bit more luxurious, but still they are very practical. You get space and comfort in these unique homes that feature high end products and have been constructed with great care and craftsmanship. Affordable luxury that does not appear cheap and run of the mill. Usually I will maintain contact with these buyers as I am able and willing to customize their homes to implement their ideas.
I have been the most successful in this group of housing as many have used our services when expanding or redesigning portions of their homes.
One house I did when I was first starting out has recently been passed on down to their son and his partner. Over the past 4 months we have added a huge in home theater and office, three additional garage spaces with a huge, house-like guest apartment above it onto this already spectacular customized home. The construction and product costs for this last addition far exceeded the original sales price his father paid for it years ago.
The last group (under 10%) is a small one and it is comprised of ultra high end, top of the line residences. I pull out all the stops and transform these places into one of a kind 100% custom homes. I gut rehab these homes and nothing old is used in their construction. All top of the line/luxury products are used and I bring in craftsman to handle the detail work in addition to my own regular crew.
Of the 8 homes I have built in this category, I ended up keeping three of them as my personal residences. Once I got in and spent this much time and $$$ on them it was hard to allow another person to occupy them. My condo in NYC was one of these projects that has been an ongoing project for more than ten years. I frankly do not see it ever being completed. And while I am dying to tell you the apprasied value of this one place, I will keep that a secret.
So there G, as eager as you were to piss on my comments once again, this time you have no basis to do so…not that you ever do, but…
So on one hand you are advising people to look into foreclosures for good deals then on the other you are saying that those foreclosed properties are going to end up being the next generation’s financial nightmare…. worse than the present one?
If ‘fact checking’ equates to what happens on CC everyday between your arm chair realtors, I will chose to accept my friend’s word for it. Very little that I take from CC is usable information in the real world. Nothing more than a juvenile pissing contest. I chose to listen to one who is employed in Phoenix in this industry rather than someone like you who relishes any kind of bad news he comes across…sorry your ‘facts’ just don’t hold water when compared to someone IN that market.
I think “the Deals” that are being offered are basically your
13th month free incentive that many complexes have been using for years. Nothing of a deal there. How many individual owner/landlords will offer to give you one month free? As property rich (and generally rich) as I am, I would never kick in a free month to anyone and don’t think anyone outside a mega complex will either.
We did discuss at length the topic of rents being lowered…this is something that is done on paper and spread to the media. The rental rates in Phoenix (and most of the larger cities in the US) have been seriously inflated for years now..that started at the same time the RE bubble started. Now because people are losing their homes to foreclosure, the complexes can claim their rents are decreasing and the foreclosed now can move right in thinking that finally, they got a deal. Real gulible public just praying for a RE deal somewhere.
Do you really believe everything you read about RE G?
“So there G, as eager as you were to piss on my comments once again, this time you have no basis to do so…not that you ever do, but…”
I guess that untold riches insulate one from reality.
The only thing in your last comment that addressed my points about your previous nonsense was this:
“These two particular homes are in Chicago. I actually underpriced them so the lucky new tenants do have a lot of house for their rental dollars.”
Problem is, you previously said this:
“In my portfolio, houses 2 and 3 have been completed in June, been inspected and were ready for tenants to move in. Both are priced higher than units around them and I had no time getting the rents I asked for.”
Nothing about my comments on your “supply and demand” conclusions?
Nothing about my comments on your Phoenix shill’s market analyis?
Typical. I have to take a wiz again and I was hoping for something.
“So on one hand you are advising people to look into foreclosures for good deals then on the other you are saying that those foreclosed properties are going to end up being the next generation’s financial nightmare…. worse than the present one?”
Problem is, I never said that. I have consistantly said that if you think you are getting a good deal today, there will be a better one in the future. I will let you know when that no longer holds.
However, something tells me you won’t be around to hear it. The reality of your portfolio at that time will have already pushed you off the ledge. Maybe holding 1/4 of your RE assets in one NYC home (out of 50+ properties total, all paid for) will not work out so well? Or, was that just paper assets?
“The rental rates in Phoenix … have been seriously inflated for years …. Now …, the complexes can claim their rents are decreasing”
Um, if landlords are decreasing their rents, how are rents not decreasing? Do you also say that the price of oil hasn’t gone down b/c it was seriously inflated a year ago?
Also noted the “priced higher” v “underpriced them” dichotomy.
Sometimes, you are a v. strange dude.
What is it with the RE delusionists here that simple logic eludes them? Res ipsa loquitur?
“The reality of your portfolio at that time will have already pushed you off the ledge.”
He’s repeatedly said he paid cash. Hence he isn’t leveraged and not at risk of financial distress.
The best use for his asset allocation being so long real estate? Probably not. But he certainly dodged the bullet of the equities market in 2008.
He won’t capitulate or be kept up at night worrying about that knock on the door from the banker or sheriff. So he’ll be relatively much better off than those who speculated with borrowed money.
I noted that they are “all paid for.”
But your point is taken that he never has to “mark to market” and admit his net-worth is declining. His self-worth? It appears to be highly dependent* on acknowledgement of his RE prowess so I don’t see where it doesn’t take a huge hit.
* In all fairness, it also appears to be dependent on his belief that some are not able to take their eyes off his “package.” http://cribchatter.com/?p=6983#comment-39484
It took you 4 responses in over an hour to rumble about my comments…funny.
Sometimes I just reach up and pull shit down just to have you react to it! If nothing else, your pointless arguments are hilarious to read.
“In my portfolio, houses 2 and 3 have been completed in June, been inspected and were ready for tenants to move in. Both are priced higher than units around them and I had no time getting the rents I asked for.” Yes they are underpriced when compared to what I have invested in them. Lower than the neighbors? Yes they are, but what I am more concerned with is that they have tenants in them. In this case, it appears they will be long term tenants. No problems with for me there.
G, I am not at all concerned about money I have invested in RE. In the end it will all evens out…everything in life tends to level itself out, nothing to worry about here. It is a relatively simple concept actually…have money, build a house, sell house to someone else who has money, go to store and buy food. Simple.
True, 1/4 of all $$$ I have invested in RE is in my personal residence in NYC. What’s your problem or concern with that fact? It is one sweet building and I have had it for nearly 11 years now and most likely, I will have it for the rest of my life. Why does this bother you so?
And FYI, I no longer have 50+ props as a number of them have sold and I have curtailed any new purchases for the time being. I have projects to last until next summer, so I will keep my crew and myself busy until that time. Will I continue after that? Time will tell. I have $$$ in RE and $$$ invested in other interests so I will never be forced off a cliff.
I see, commenting on the possibility that my net worth may be declining because of heavy investmenting in RE is what brought us four awe inspiring posts from you and gained you some satisfaction. Not to worry G, I have enough $$$ for a life time of bad mistakes. Thanks for your concerns though.
And still thinking about my package huh? Hope M’s description keeps you entertained at night!! I can almost hear the conversation you two ladies must have had over it….
I promise to let you all know when we’ve hit bottom. But we’re not there yet; we’re not even close. If I use the baseball analogy we’re only starting the fourth inning.
Thanks for your continuing analaysis of my psychological make up G, but how about we leave my psychological issues to the professional of my choice? While you may have some knowledge of RE that just may be useful to others, I highly doubt that psychoanalysis is your strong point.
I said what I did to you not out of self hate, but rather due to the fact that in our society this accusation is one of the biggest insults you can hurl at a straight man. Do I care of your orientation? Not at all. Do I care how you attempt to belittle and humiliate me in a public setting? Of course I do and I will fire back with whatever it takes to get you to back off.
When YOU chose to single me out, question and dispute everything I post, degrade and humiliate me, you are only setting the stage for this type of ugliness. It is not my desire to engage you or anyone else here in this type of back and forth, but when you do what you enjoy doing you have to realize some serious and ugly responses will be coming your way.
I thought we had agreed to ignore each other a few weeks ago? Other than attacking me continually, there is no RE relevant exchange of information between us. No matter how ridiculous and irrelevant you think my comments are, how are they really bothering you? It is only an online message board and nothing more. I come here to expand my views of Chicago’s RE scene and only that.
IF my views and knowledge about this industy that I have chosen to persue as my life for over 25 years were so ridiculous and incorrect, how would you explain the successes I have had so far? Granted there are portions of this industry that I just do not understand nor do I really care to invest my time learning enough to understand it, I still have had tremendous success at it. I have many support people who know what I don’t know and they advise me of the path I need to take to do what I do.
You chose to analyze the smallest of details and put your own spin on how this business works, so good for you. I can’t do what you can and you can’t do what I do. Why should that be a source of resentment and anger towards each other? If anything I admire the time you have spent to learn what you have and just wish you could return the feeling.
I see this business as something as simple as “I have the knowledge, resources, background and money to provide reasonable and above average housing to those seeking it. They enjoy the end product my crew and myself put out, seek and find the financing they need to purchase this property and we proceed to completing our transaction and both walk away satisfied with the deal we have entered into. While I do some follow up calls to assure my homes are acceptable and everything is operating as it should, for me, that is the end of the story. Hopefully in a few years we meet again to do business once more, either way I know I have done my job the best I could have and I am happy with myself. DONE.
I don’t care about the rest of what happens behind the scenes, the state of the economic enviroment we are facing or what other people are doing in the industry. To analyze its every change and move is exhausting for me and I do not follow it as closely as maybe I should. But as long as I keep doing my job, my crew is happy and productive and my houses are appreciated by the interested public and they sell or rent, I am content to leave it at that.
Please, I ask you kindly one more time, would you just leave me alone and let me post my comments and opinions as I see fit? I promise to do the same towards you and I think with this agreement, we can avoid having others read what I think we are actually embarrassed to have written towards each other.
Westloopzero,
Nobody can follow our rambling treasties. Additionally I don’t believe you have any sort of insight into why a RE professional might follow this blog for a period of time and then quit. I think you are being a bit presumptive.
Westloop is kind of the Bill Walton of cribchatter.
He’s supplicating. And it is kind of annoying to be continually attacked sort of like how Steveo calls everyone a monon and dumb. I’ll leave you alone, emo.
“Please, I ask you kindly one more time, would you just leave me alone and let me post my comments and opinions as I see fit? I promise to do the same towards you and I think with this agreement, we can avoid having others read what I think we are actually embarrassed to have written towards each other.”
Barb,
Come on now we have all seen a few RE pros pop up, post an intelligent thing or two, get attacked by those he/she intimidates, responds to yet more unneeded criticism, then they are never heard from again…and those are the ones who really had something intelligent to add to the discussion.
I also have dropped this forum into conversations with a good number of RE insiders only to be laughed at for admitting to reading it. They confirmed what is evident from some posters’ contributions, that they are mainly arm chair RE agents who have never owned their own home before and probably won’t in the near future and their inability to do so makes them mighty steamed.
Regardless, I still really do like the forum and I have learned a great deal about Chicago’s RE dealings.
Also, I think Sabrina does a great job of digging up current RE info and allows us to voice our opinions, even if she has not responded to my neverending request for an ‘open topic’ discussion section that would allow us access to even more information that we all thrive on.
Thanks for your thoughts HD! I guess someone understands what I am trying to say about this rehashed subject and the need for a glimmer of civility.
Who is Bill Walton anyway…lucky man him being compared to me…
A lot of them pop up because their property is being featured on here and its a great way to defend criticism and market it better. Once that propery sells or is no longer listed theres no longer a need to market it so they probably drop off. Duh.
“They confirmed what is evident from some posters’ contributions, that they are mainly arm chair RE agents who have never owned their own home before and probably won’t in the near future and their inability to do so makes them mighty steamed.”
Hm, who do you count as the “regulars” you are (implicitly) disparaging here? The only “never owned” folks I am aware of are Bob and HD. Undoubtedly there are others, but they mostly seem to be actively in the market.
I can’t agree with that explaination Bob. There was one case in particular where there were a large number of concerns and questions about a property featured. The listing agent was present (because of their comments on other threads) but because the featured house was an “as is” listing, they never spoke up to defend or answer any of the inquiries that were posted…and there were a number of issues that could have been cleared up with their input. Hell, the place possibly could have sold sooner had these questions been addressed then honestly!
I did follow up the article here with a phone call speaking directly to the agent, but there was still no clarification of the issues involved. It was not as though the facts about the place were concealed, it was evident to even the most inexperienced buyer that there would be a good amount of repair work that would need to be performed after the sale.
It was not until the end of the discussion did this person finally speak up, but still they failed to address or acknowledge any questions posters had posed to them.
Fortunately (or not) I had met with this particular agent a few times prior and realized that they were not the kind of person who could take truthful criticism without becoming angry and aggressive. Because of their callous and unprofessional behavior, I ended up backing away from two properties they had listed…their MAJOR loss as one was a very pricey property that I had every intention of purchasing had the exchange been more honest.
Not to worry anon, no names were exchanged, it was spoken of as a generalization of those who they had visited this forum in the past.
Try as you might to get me to name names anon, I would not do that. I am trying to get over this petty behavior and mentioning anyone person in particular, again even if I knew that name, would be counterproductive all around.
I have discussed with Bob his valid reasons for not buying now and I admire his honesty and knowledge of economics. I cannot say anything negative about him or his reasoning for staying out of the market right now.
“Try as you might to get me to name names anon, I would not do that.”
Whatever man.
I’m not trying to get you to “name names”, I’m trying to figure out why you keep implying that the majority of “problematic” comments here are from people who are “bitter renters” (not your phrase, but ez shorthand) when that isn’t the impression I have at all.
Also, when someone says Person A and Person B, and then you defend Person B, you are implicitly naming Person A.
westloopelo on July 16th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
“Very little that I take from CC is usable information in the real world. Nothing more than a juvenile pissing contest.”(sic)
westloopelo on July 17th, 2009 at 10:23 am
“Regardless, I still really do like the forum and I have learned a great deal about Chicago’s RE dealings.”
Clarification please?
Let’s see the difference between statement 1 and 2:
Statement #1:
“Very little that I take away from CC is usable information in the real world. Nothing more than a juvenile pissing contest.”
translation: I learn very little from the same old back and forth pointless arguments that occur daily here regarding the basics of economics, the impact on the RE market here, the inability of a person earning $100k in Chicago to save enough for a down payment, and those damn retarded owners have to lower their prices…
Or another version:
“One person will say the sun rises in the east. Another from Brazil will say from his perspective it rises in the Northeast. Another from Chicago will say it does rise but because of the time differences across the US not everyone will get light at the same time thereby reducing the positive facts from the person on the East Coast who gets the sun an hour earlier. Still another will say that it does indeed rise in the east, but on days when it is cloudy who is really to say for sure that it does indeed rise in the east. To which someone else will reply that they knew a person who happened to be flying above Chicago on a cloudy day and it was indeed shining bright at 32,000 feet. To which a person on the ground in Chicago would say well what good does that do me up there since I am down here. Then the person from Brazil says yes it has risen today and his messenger is on his way to the traders to collect a huge check so he can buy yet another Roche sofa that is usable both indoors and outdoors in the sun. And then you have the person who is on the plane saying the female flight attendant is HOT to which someone will argue that United only has the hottest flight attendants who will sometimes agree to $1 beers at some hole in the wall bar in LP.
Hence the reference to a pissing contest that yields no viable information for ppl who are looking to buy their first house.
Statement #2:
“Regardless, I still really do like the forum and I have learned a great deal about Chicago’s RE dealings.”
translation:
I don’t care how many uninformed people come on and post irrelevent information. As long as there are RE listings that tell the most basic information, I can contact the agent or broker to set up an appointment to see the featured property.
During this time, while I do read and respond to others posts, there is really nothing valuable to be learned from doing so. At times however, an intelligent and established representative from a respected RE agency ie: Gary Lucido, will make an appearance and give us an insider’s unbiased look into what is happening to the local housing market. This is until the ‘Garys of CC’ have their facts questioned by someone who does not have any knowledge of what is really happening and has happened over the past month. Then those Garys just disappear and once again the clueless are left to entertain us with their nonsensical debates that really do not solve anything.
So, in that respect I have learned a great deal from CC about Chicago’s RE market.
anon, take from my comments what you will. I really don’t care.
“One person will say the sun rises in the east. Another from Brazil will say from his perspective it rises in the Northeast. Another from Chicago will say it does rise but because of the time differences across the US not everyone will get light at the same time thereby reducing the positive facts from the person on the East Coast who gets the sun an hour earlier.”
And one person will say that it only *appears* to rise in the east now because compass directions in Phoenix were altered over the past several years. And the same person will say that the sun rises in the east AND in the west.
What happened to the guy who complained that “Um…” was too uncivil for polite conversation? Are the big, bad anonymous idiots of Chicago too mean for po’ lil him?
He’s just trying to fit us into his worldview, and to question it is to illustrate your jealousy of his obvious superior intelligence and overall fantabulous real estatocity. Not to mention you are poor.
Those agents are not chased off. They run off after they typically insult all of the posters here (like 0 does, generalizing most are “armchair RE agents” or “bitter renters” or “too poor to buy”) and then someone (like me) presents facts to show how uninformed or deceptive they are.
There is a simple way to avoid me “picking” on all these sad agents and the 0: don’t come on here and post anything as “facts” (like 0 did yesterday with the Phoenix rental market) unless you are ready to back it up.
One thing about the SHill: I doubt we’ll ever hear him cry that we are picking on him. Even Bob broke down on his behalf before he did.