Market Conditions: April 2023 Sales Fall 37.6% Year-Over-Year as Inventory Falls Again
The Illinois Association of Realtors is out with the April sales data. It remains at multi-year lows. Sales were at their lowest since April 2020 when the COVID pandemic spooked home buyers and sales ground to a halt.
From the IAR:
The city of Chicago saw a 37.6 percent year-over-year home sales decrease in April 2023 with 2,028 sales, down from 3,249 in April 2022.
The median price of a home in the city of Chicago in April 2023 was $340,000, down 8.1 percent compared to April 2022 when it was $370,000.
Here are the sales statistics for April since 2007:
- 2007: 2419 sales
- 2008: 1886 sales
- 2009: 1407 sales
- 2010: 1984 sales
- 2011: 1466 sales
- 2012: 1816 sales
- 2013: 2392 sales
- 2014: 2256 sales
- 2015: 2435 sales
- 2016: 2706 sales
- 2017: 2647 sales
- 2018: 2700 sales
- 2019: 2595 sales
- 2020: 2057 sales
- 2021: 3360 sales
- 2022: 3249 sales
- 2023: 2028 sales
Here are the median prices:
- 2007: $289,800
- 2008: $300,000
- 2009: $218,000
- 2010: $225,000
- 2011: $169,000
- 2012: $182,000
- 2013: $223,500
- 2014: $250,000
- 2015: $271,325
- 2016: $286,000
- 2017: $297,500
- 2018: $307,500
- 2019: $310,000
- 2020: $338,000
- 2021: $373,750
- 2022: $370,000
- 2023: $340,000
“The data year over year is showing a decline, which is unsurprising given the trends we’ve seen over the last few months. Low inventory, increased inflation and higher mortgage rates are affecting national real estate markets as well,” said Sarah Ware, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and principal and designated managing broker for Ware Realty Group in Chicago. “However, we’re still seeing activity and opportunity for buyers and sellers who were intimidated by last year’s hectic pace.”
Inventory continues to fall.
Statewide, housing inventory fell 23.6% to 17,186 from 22,492 last year. In Chicago, it fell 25.1% to 5007 from 6687 last year.
However, days on the market were up 18.8% in Chicago to 38 days from 32 days last year.
The median sales price mix was also interesting in the quarter. Overall, it dropped 8.1%, or $30,000, to $340,000. But single family home prices were down 15.7% to $295,000 while condo median sales price was up 0.3% to $380,000.
Single family home sales fell 31% in April to 722 while condos were down 40.7% to 1306.
Reminder: median sales price is about the mix.
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.34% in April 2023 versus 6.54% in March 2023. Last year, it averaged 4.98% after the Fed started raising rates in March 2022 and rates quickly spiked.
In the next several months, we’re going to start to loop last year’s slowdown as mortgage rates rose. We could even see rising year-over-year sales later this summer as a result.
But will that mean that the housing market is “back”?
Or is the lack of inventory the real challenge to get sales to turn around?
Illinois’ statewide home sales and available housing inventory fall during April [Illinois Association of Realtors, Press Release, by Bill Kozar, May 18, 2023]
“Reminder: median sales price is about the mix.”
Except when it goes up – then its a sure tale sign of a HAWT Market ™
“Inventory continues to fall.
However, days on the market were up 18.8% in Chicago to 38 days from 32 days last year.”
This is unpossible!!! What happened to the sizzle?
Here’s the larger headwinds facing residential RE
1) Interest rates and relative price stability (for now) are holding back current property owners from moving up.
2) Student loan pause is going to expire sooner than later, creating a significant adjustment/pain for a lot of first time buyers
3) Look for the starter condo market to get hammered as those that have the means to move up (<20%) will sell at reduced prices, pushing comps lower and locking owners into the SB 2/2 for a lot longer than they had figured
How many prospective buyers looking to move up are holding their breath, waiting to see what sort of turd policies the new mayor cranks out?
Hey everyone, long time no posting and just occasional lurking. Is the old gang all still here?
While I’m not happy that we sold our Portage Park home in the summer of 2021, I am happy we sold it when we did as we made a tidy sum. I didn’t think a SFH w/out Central Air would sell above $500K and yet it did.
Some are Icky. Hope all is well with you.
“While I’m not happy that we sold our Portage Park home in the summer of 2021, I am happy we sold it when we did as we made a tidy sum. I didn’t think a SFH w/out Central Air would sell above $500K and yet it did.”
Icky: lurking is totally cool. You can join the “supposed gang of this person doesn’t live in Chicago so their opinion doesn’t count club”
Did your place strictly have window units? or some split unit inverter type?
“While I’m not happy that we sold our Portage Park home in the summer of 2021, I am happy we sold it when we did as we made a tidy sum. I didn’t think a SFH w/out Central Air would sell above $500K and yet it did.”
Fantastic Icky. Portage Park is no longer middle class. Gotta have a nice chunk of cash to buy there now.
Only 54 homes on the market right now in Portage Park.
Inventory is very, very low.
“How many prospective buyers looking to move up are holding their breath, waiting to see what sort of turd policies the new mayor cranks out?”
None. If they already lived in the city through the pandemic, the riots and Mayor Lightfoot, they are staying for life.
“Except when it goes up – then its a sure tale sign of a HAWT Market”
Nope. Has never been so in 15 years of running this blog.
“2) Student loan pause is going to expire sooner than later, creating a significant adjustment/pain for a lot of first time buyers”
No, it’s not. Student loans were already in the criteria for the lenders regardless of the pause in payments. First time buyers have literally had 3 years of being able to save more money for a downpayment. It’s been a boom for those who were disciplined. The payments resume at the end of July under the debt ceiling deal.
Nearly half of all loans are now being made to Millennials. Student loans aren’t going to change that mix. GenX had loans too! They still bought homes. And believe it or not, even those Millennials who lived in their parents basements during the Great Recession, and couldn’t find jobs for years during that period, have likely already bought homes.
Lol.
“3) Look for the starter condo market to get hammered as those that have the means to move up (<20%) will sell at reduced prices, pushing comps lower and locking owners into the SB 2/2 for a lot longer than they had figured"
You keep saying this is going to happen. That all these condo owners are going to have to reduce prices. But they're not. If anything, they will be "stuck" in their starter condos for more years- just as they were in the 2008-2012 period. Big deal. Many young people aren't having kids. It's no biggie to live in a 2/2 condo for 10 years. Cry me a river for their "sacrifice."
“No, it’s not. Student loans were already in the criteria for the lenders regardless of the pause in payments. First time buyers have literally had 3 years of being able to save more money for a downpayment. It’s been a boom for those who were disciplined. The payments resume at the end of July under the debt ceiling deal.
Nearly half of all loans are now being made to Millennials. Student loans aren’t going to change that mix. GenX had loans too! They still bought homes. And believe it or not, even those Millennials who lived in their parents basements during the Great Recession, and couldn’t find jobs for years during that period, have likely already bought homes.”
Do you just generate responses from ChatAI as a Karen Realator?
Why do you assume/what proof do you have that those with a pause on their student loans were saving that money? I’m sure some were diligent, hence why i didnt say all first time buyers.
1/2 of all loans is meaningless. I was specifically noting first time home buyers
Why do you always go completely off the rails in response to my posts posting nonsensical BS?
“You keep saying this is going to happen. That all these condo owners are going to have to reduce prices. But they’re not. If anything, they will be “stuck” in their starter condos for more years- just as they were in the 2008-2012 period. Big deal. Many young people aren’t having kids. It’s no biggie to live in a 2/2 condo for 10 years. Cry me a river for their “sacrifice.”
Except it is happening
They are/will have to if they want to move.
“If they already lived in the city through the pandemic, the riots and Mayor Lightfoot, they are staying for life.”
That’s the sort of thing someone in Naperville says.
“Some are Icky. Hope all is well with you.”
Well, I’m living in the South, so no, not really. 🙂
“Did your place strictly have window units? or some split unit inverter type?”
All window units included a Through-the-Wall unit in the “master” bedroom. I did have a driveway on a slightly oversized lot.
“All window units included a Through-the-Wall unit in the “master” bedroom.”
Did they have sophisticated chips?
“Did they have sophisticated chips?”
If it’s a newer model, yes, it does. Just like your refrigerator JohnnyU. Your stove. Your car. Your laundry machine.
Time to get into this century. It’s never too late.
“That’s the sort of thing someone in Naperville says.”
Huh? Again, it’s comments like this that make me think you do NOT live in Chicago anon (tfo). Because those of us who lived here the last three years, who never left to the suburbs or rural areas, who walked through the loop when not a single other person was out on the street at 10 am, who waited in line outside of the Trader Joe’s to be “let in”, who heard the gunshots and the mayhem of the protests and riots, who ate outside in 30 degree weather to support their favorite local restaurant, has put in the energy to be a part of this community. Do you think we’re leaving NOW? Do you think we’re going to give up on it after all we’ve been through?
People living in Naperville were not in the trenches. They have NO clue.
Seems like you don’t have any clue either anon(tfo). Those with no spine left. It’s that simple. The rest are willing to work with our community to make it work. We’ve already been through the worst of it. And it WAS hell. No doubt about it.
“They are/will have to if they want to move.”
But they can list right now and not have to lower their price at all. What about “record low inventory” don’t you understand?
A friend lives in a townhouse in Lakeview. A unit just came on the market and was under contract within a week. There’s just nothing on the market. If you have even a 2/2 you can sell it almost immediately in many neighborhoods.
But I agree that people will be living in their condos longer because they won’t want to give up their low monthly payment that was due to low mortgage rates.
“Why do you assume/what proof do you have that those with a pause on their student loans were saving that money?”
I don’t. I DO assume that someone who is going to buy a home has a down payment, even if just 3%, somehow. Usually you get it through saving for it, but perhaps they got a gift from a parent.
The obsession with student loans is nuts. They have been high for the last 20 years. It hasn’t stopped anyone from buying in Chicago. Sorry. New college grads eventually move up the chain and get better paying jobs. Then they get married and have two incomes.
“But they can list right now and not have to lower their price at all. What about “record low inventory” don’t you understand?”
The part where they dont need to lower their price.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/440-N-Wabash-Ave-APT-3906-Chicago-IL-60611/80821247_zpid/
This owner has been trying to sell since 2020. wHy Has iT noT SolD?
“A friend lives in a townhouse in Lakeview. A unit just came on the market and was under contract within a week. There’s just nothing on the market. If you have even a 2/2 you can sell it almost immediately in many neighborhoods.”
Meaningless drivel. The fact that they sold is meaningless, congrats for a useless data point.
You can always sell in an instant if the price is low enough
“But I agree that people will be living in their condos longer because they won’t want to give up their low monthly payment that was due to low mortgage rates.”
You can be honest – Bravo
“I don’t. I DO assume that someone who is going to buy a home has a down payment, even if just 3%, somehow. Usually you get it through saving for it, but perhaps they got a gift from a parent.”
Vs
“First time buyers have literally had 3 years of being able to save more money for a downpayment.”
You dont even remember what you posted earlier
“The obsession with student loans is nuts. They have been high for the last 20 years. It hasn’t stopped anyone from buying in Chicago. Sorry. New college grads eventually move up the chain and get better paying jobs. Then they get married and have two incomes.”
Its not an obsession.
I think its comical that there are individuals that think many potential first-time home buyers losing – $3-500+/mo of disposable income (That they’ve been accustomed to) isnt a going to have an effect, especially in this market.
“it’s comments like this that make me think you do NOT live in Chicago anon (tfo)”
My kids will all spend 13+ years in CPS, unlike almost everyone else here with “opinions” about Chicago schools.
But “never leave”? which is what you wrote…first, never is a long time, and, second, who *with the means to leave* would ever say “never”??
Let’s say that the Mayor gets Springfield to allow a 3.75% tax on income over $100k–> I know dozens of families who would nope out then. Includes me. I “know” that it won’t happen, but I wouldn’t say “never”.
“Did they have sophisticated chips?”
It wasn’t what would be classified as a Smart Device but it did come with a remote control.
All I know is that Bob over at Heat Cool Service Co wanted to charge me $940 to replace the ancient Sears Coldspot.
With a little helpful advice/research from Gary Lucido, we were able to find a unit that fit which I installed it myself for $375 and we got a $25 Energy Savings rebate from ComEd.
reminds me of the final episode of Ted Lasso where a character says that he learned (in the UK) that Air Conn is a privilege and not a right.
I do get annoyed at window units w/o a remote. It’s like going back to the 80’s and arguing with the family on who is getting up from the couch to change the TV channel.
All the best wherever you are.
“I think its comical that there are individuals that think many potential first-time home buyers losing – $3-500+/mo of disposable income (That they’ve been accustomed to) isnt a going to have an effect, especially in this market.”
My god. Give it UP already. The people with the loans make $150k working at Google. Move on. They are buying right now with the mortgage brokers assuming the loan payments in the approval. They will buy next year and the year after that and ever more.
It’s so tiring. It’s such a stupid argument. But it’s the same one all the bears have been making for why housing was doomed for literally 10 years. Next you’ll be saying that the Millennials are all still living in their parents basements when the oldest are now 42.
Get into this century. I beg of you. And talk with some younger people under the age of 35. People are getting married much later and buying homes much later. If you buy a house at 30, you’ve been paying on your student loans for YEARS, even with the freeze.
First time buyers are about 25% to 30% of all home buyers. The 7% mortgage rates have already removed them from the market in all the expensive markets. Student loans aren’t the issue in those areas.
“This owner has been trying to sell since 2020. wHy Has iT noT SolD?”
Because it’s downtown where there is still excess inventory. Lakeview doesn’t have excess inventory.
There are just THREE townhouses on the market in Lakeview that are not under contract. THREE.
Wow!
No wonder the one near my friend went under contract within hours of listing. If you want one you have to move fast.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1006-W-Barry-Ave-60657/home/13364972
3 days for this one. If it’s priced under $600k it’s going to sell within 24 hours of listing, basically.
This larger townhouse listed at $699k took 7 days to go under contract.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/3316-N-Racine-Ave-60657/home/13381905
Remember the 3-bedroom duplex units we’ve chattered about in Lincoln Park at 439 W. Grant? Lots of these sold for $450,000 back during the housing bust. They are only 1600 square feet.
This one contingent at $649,500. It did take 3 weeks to find a buyer. Wow.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/439-W-Grant-Pl-60614/unit-B/home/184881165
There really is NOTHING on the market. I don’t know how the bears on this blog can write what they do with a straight face. There is simply no way prices are going to decline much. There are always going to be some luxury house that doesn’t appreciate or a downtown condo that is still priced at the same pries as 2007 (I can show you plenty of those.) But sellers are getting their price in the popular neighborhoods.
The housing bubble is still a factor in condo pricing in many neighborhoods. That bubble was BIG. It’s really rather shocking to see, frankly.
“My god. Give it UP already. The people with the loans make $150k working at Google. Move on. They are buying right now with the mortgage brokers assuming the loan payments in the approval. They will buy next year and the year after that and ever more.”
What % of FTHB does this cohort represent?
“It’s so tiring. It’s such a stupid argument. But it’s the same one all the bears have been making for why housing was doomed for literally 10 years. Next you’ll be saying that the Millennials are all still living in their parents basements when the oldest are now 42.”
Gaslighting
Many of these 42 YO are stuck in a shitbox 2/2
“Get into this century. I beg of you. And talk with some younger people under the age of 35. People are getting married much later and buying homes much later. If you buy a house at 30, you’ve been paying on your student loans for YEARS, even with the freeze.”
What does getting married much later have to do with this? These same millennials are buying/renting without being married
“First time buyers are about 25% to 30% of all home buyers. The 7% mortgage rates have already removed them from the market in all the expensive markets. Student loans aren’t the issue in those areas.”
So reducing cash flow has no impact on the ability to make a large purchase? Interesting theory you have there…
So also long as the old folks like you can buy, the market is HAWT(tm)?
“Because it’s downtown where there is still excess inventory. Lakeview doesn’t have excess inventory.”
So not HAWT(tm)?
Dont people HavE tO lIVe SomEwhErE? I was told PeoPlE jUSt WaNt tO lIvE?
“There are just THREE townhouses on the market in Lakeview that are not under contract. THREE.
Wow!”
Why is this surprising? Owners are stuck. The HMAM doesnt allow for an upgrade. This is the opposite of HAWT(tm).
“https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1006-W-Barry-Ave-60657/home/13364972
3 days for this one. If it’s priced under $600k it’s going to sell within 24 hours of listing, basically.”
$446k Dec 2006 + CPI = $670k >> $540k ask. Ooof Thats flat out embarrassing for such a HAWT(tm) wORlD cLAsS cITy
Shouldnt they be able to get more than $540k? Especially since its not downtown and theres a complete lack of inventory? Your economic analysis is very non-standard
“This larger townhouse listed at $699k took 7 days to go under contract.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/3316-N-Racine-Ave-60657/home/13381905”
$525k June 2006 + CPI = $785k >> $700k ask. Ooof
This one at least has been updated, which makes the ask that much more embarrassing
Are you purposefully trying to show Real Estate fails?
“There really is NOTHING on the market. I don’t know how the bears on this blog can write what they do with a straight face. There is simply no way prices are going to decline much. There are always going to be some luxury house that doesn’t appreciate or a downtown condo that is still priced at the same pries as 2007 (I can show you plenty of those.) But sellers are getting their price in the popular neighborhoods.”
No one has said any different. So congrats I guess, you’re a real winner.
The issue which you fail to grasp (whether through willful ignorance or stupidity) is that limited supply should be pushing pricing UP, especially in terms of real dollars. The other thing you should expect to see if demand was strong is substitution, which flat out isnt happening.
“The housing bubble is still a factor in condo pricing in many neighborhoods. That bubble was BIG. It’s really rather shocking to see, frankly.”
This is BS if the market was HAWT(tm)
I really wonder if you believe 1/2 the crap you post.
“It wasn’t what would be classified as a Smart Device but it did come with a remote control.”
Running joke where Sabrina was extoling the virtues of a Motel 6 inwall AC due to the prodigious use of “Sophisticated chips”
“$525k June 2006 + CPI = $785k >> $700k ask. Ooof”
TBF, 06 was basically top of a bubble; it *should* look bad from there.
Using the earlier, pre-bubble, sale:
$375, Sep-00 + CPI = $655 << $700k
CPI +29 bps, so a little laggy compared to history, but not too bad.
“Running joke where Sabrina was extoling the virtues of a Motel 6 inwall AC due to the prodigious use of “Sophisticated chips””
It’s not a running joke, it’s the actual TRUTH. And it was a discussion about a wall unit, NOT a window unit.
The wall units are smart devices now. They are not the wall units that were installed in the 1970s. But JohnnyU, for whatever reason, finds this funny and keeps talking about it like it’s some “new” thing. They came out with the LED wall units about 6 or 7 years ago. New models continue to roll out as the technnology improves. And yes, they do use sophisticated semiconductor chips in them now.
JohnnyU lives in the 1990s still. Just ignore him.
“The issue which you fail to grasp (whether through willful ignorance or stupidity) is that limited supply should be pushing pricing UP, especially in terms of real dollars. The other thing you should expect to see if demand was strong is substitution, which flat out isnt happening.”
Prices are up almost everywhere: city and suburbs. Multiple bids on almost everything decent that comes on the market.
From Crain’s:
A perfectly ordinary house in Lincolnwood, a brick three-bedroom with a typical 1990s “snout garage” parked in front, landed an extraordinary number of offers when it hit the market in April.
In two days, 150 potential buyers toured the house on Arthur Street, and 64 of them wrote up offers.
“I expected to get five or six offers,” says Nicole Flores, the Dream Town Realty agent who represented the house. “Did I expect to get 64 offers? Oh no.”
The house, whose owners were asking $525,000, went under contract April 19, five days after the first showings. The sale closed May 18 at $820,000, 56% over the asking price.
“LED wall units”
???
Light emitting diode?
“The sale closed May 18 at $820,000, 56% over the asking price.”
The house:
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Lincolnwood/3960-W-Arthur-Ave-60712/home/13588223
Nice enough, but nothing special, and it’s on the corner of Crawford, which would be a hard no for me.
“It’s not a running joke, it’s the actual TRUTH. And it was a discussion about a wall unit, NOT a window unit.”
Is there any particular reason why a window unit cant have “Sophisticated chips”?
“The wall units are smart devices now. They are not the wall units that were installed in the 1970s. But JohnnyU, for whatever reason, finds this funny and keeps talking about it like it’s some “new” thing. They came out with the LED wall units about 6 or 7 years ago. New models continue to roll out as the technnology improves. And yes, they do use sophisticated semiconductor chips in them now.”
Would you just stop. I’m actually embarrassed that you continue to beclown yourself. LED’s LOL
Since you’re such an expert on these units, are they run off VFDs? Take advantage of free cooling? What kind of dP’s do they have?
“JohnnyU lives in reality. Just ignore me.”
FIFY
“Would you just stop. I’m actually embarrassed that you continue to beclown yourself. LED’s LOL”
It was actually the Fulton House, the old cold warehouse, that had the wall units in question.
Yep. I know it’s hard for you to get your head around JohnnyU but if we have smart refrigerators and washer/dryers, we’re also going to have that in air conditioning units. The world is moving on. Time to get aboard.
“LED wall units”
Yep.
“Nice enough, but nothing special, and it’s on the corner of Crawford, which would be a hard no for me.”
That’s the point of featuring it. It’s nothing amazing but 64 buyers wanted it. 64! My god.
I really have sympathy for buyers in some locations. There’s just nothing on the market and people just want to be settled somewhere. They don’t care what they have to pay. The last time I saw that kind of behavior was when I lived in California. But in the Chicago suburbs? Have never seen buyers that desperate before.
The article had a bunch of other examples too of 20+ offers on what were just “normal” properties.
It’s hard to get to properties before they go under contract. Many properties are selling within days.
Here’s a 4-bedroom townhouse near Southport. Under contract in 3 days. Buyers need to move fast. Go see it the day it comes on the market.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/4010-N-Clark-St-60613/unit-O/home/12717442
“LED’s arent chips”
More to the point, they’re just the tech underlying the UI.
No LEDs involved in the control system itself.
“More to the point, they’re just the tech underlying the UI.
No LEDs involved in the control system itself.”
She obviously heard a word that she didnt understand and instantly assumed it must be “Sophisticated”.
By definition LED’s are dumb – current hits it and it lights up.
I’m Still trying to figure out what “LED wall units” are and how this amazing “NEW” technology thats been around since at least the 70’s has finally made it to the world of Wall Mounted AC, but window units are excluded from some unknown reason
This will have to join the other great mysteries of Crib Chatter along side Pergolas being $125k minimum, Eataly having the only “Real” San Marzano tomatoes in Chicago and others…
“and others…”
Real dollars don’t matter, only nominal.
Median prices dont matter, unless they are positive
I’m Still trying to figure out what “LED wall units” are and how this amazing “NEW” technology thats been around since at least the 70’s has finally made it to the world of Wall Mounted AC, but window units are excluded from some unknown reason”
Is a car the same as a truck? A window a/c unit is not the same thing as a wall heating/cooling unit. That’s why they aren’t discussed together. It is a completely different product.
And if you saw a wall unit from 1970 and saw one from 2023 you would know what the discussion is all about. Same with a car from 1970 versus a car from 2023. Or a refrigerator from 1970 v a refrigerator from 2023. Or a stove from 1970 v a stove from 2023.
Median prices are down from 2022 and 2021, yet housing prices “rose” somehow in that time. This math is incredible.
“Median prices dont matter, unless they are positive”
They don’t matter, period. It’s just about the mix.
“Median prices are down from 2022 and 2021, yet housing prices “rose” somehow in that time. This math is incredible.”
Median is irrelevant. I include it only because I have included it from the get-go and people like to see it. If there are fewer luxury condo sales then it will drop. Same with the mix of single family homes.
Chicago and the suburbs continue to see rising home prices. Lack of inventory is doing that. If there are 10 offers, you’re likely going to get over-bidding. I’m starting to see some interesting flips as well.
Look at this one in Deer Park. Sold in Sep 2022 for $600,000. Did a gut renovation. Now listed for $1.099 million. This is the kind of flip you’d see in Los Angeles.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Deer-Park/21641-N-Sylvander-Dr-60010/home/17650776
“And if you saw a wall unit from 1970 and saw one from 2023 you would know what the discussion is all about. Same with a car from 1970 versus a car from 2023. Or a refrigerator from 1970 v a refrigerator from 2023. Or a stove from 1970 v a stove from 2023.”
Car
Carb Vs FI + a shit to of sensors
Push button & Dial radio Vs Complete infotainment system
Throttle Vs Adaptive cruise, Auto breaking
Side & Rear mirrors Vs 20 Cameras
Wall AC’s
Thermostat Vs Thermostat
Fan Vs Fan
Compressor Vs Compressor
Sober up
“Is a car the same as a truck? A window a/c unit is not the same thing as a wall heating/cooling unit. That’s why they aren’t discussed together. It is a completely different product.
And if you saw a wall unit from 1970 and saw one from 2023 you would know what the discussion is all about. Same with a car from 1970 versus a car from 2023. Or a refrigerator from 1970 v a refrigerator from 2023. Or a stove from 1970 v a stove from 2023.”
After you sleep this one off
You still didnt answer the question about the Wall LED’s?
I eagerly await your answer and enlightenment
“a car from 1970 versus a car from 2023”
“Or a refrigerator from 1970 v a refrigerator from 2023.”
One of the difference in the cars is the exterior and interior lighting is (mostly) LED, as opposed to an incandescent.
One of the differences in the fridge is the light inside is an LED, as opposed to an incandescent.
It neither case is that actually a key difference.
Still looking for info on these sophisticated wall LEDs
“Still looking for info on these sophisticated wall LEDs”
Travel and you’ll see it in your motel room. Nothing else I can tell you since you have no clue. Educate yourself.
What does the LED have to do with the operation (as opposed to the user interface) of the unit?
I will say that the units with blue LED power, etc, lights are more pleasant that the old red ones (also LEDs, of course), and both more pleasant than the mechanical switches. But that’s all just UI.
Interesting data from Redfin. Again, median prices don’t tell you anything about what’s happening to home prices but it does tell you what current buyers are willing to pay to live in an area and the suburbs are proving to be more and more desirable than the city. https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-chicago-268cac42-ae1f-4775-bc91-4b1e77473748.html
“Interesting data from Redfin. Again, median prices don’t tell you anything about what’s happening to home prices but it does tell you what current buyers are willing to pay to live in an area and the suburbs are proving to be more and more desirable than the city.”
What does this “data” even mean? At least give me the price changes by county. That might make some sense. But “urban” “suburban” and “rural”????
What is “rural” in the context of Chicago? DeKalb County? LaSalle?
What is “suburban”? I know what the IAR dubs “Chicago metro” because they tell you. Does suburban include Kankakee? Grundy?
What does “urban” mean? Oak Park? Evanston? Berwyn included with Chicago?
Really have no idea with this “data.” But there is no doubt that the low inventory is causing bidding wars in most suburbs but also in many Chicago neighborhoods. This is the new reality even with 7% mortgage rates.
Also, there’s soon to be a day of reckoning for many that moved to the suburbs during the pandemic and will now face the commute. Many Chicago companies are going to 3 days a week as of this fall. Some are now requesting 4 days. Either way, that commute from St Charles or Barrington is going to be a drag.
“Also, there’s soon to be a day of reckoning for many that moved to the suburbs during the pandemic and will now face the commute. Many Chicago companies are going to 3 days a week as of this fall. Some are now requesting 4 days. Either way, that commute from St Charles or Barrington is going to be a drag.”
Why?
Its like a hour train ride from Barrington to the city, the same as a 1.2 mile bus ride in the city
And you can actually get a start on your workday on Metra, much less so on the bus.
“median prices don’t tell you anything about what’s happening to home prices but it does tell you what current buyers are willing to pay to live in an area”
Gary, it’s still totally mix dependant, especially over a larger, undefined, area.
For “suburbs”, that median increase could be because of more sales in Naperville and Oak Brook (as cited in the article) and fewer in Elgin and Homewood.
Correct. But it still tells you that the average person moving to the suburbs now is spending more than the average person moving there in the past for whatever reason. It’s obviously people with more money or people willing to put a larger percentage of their net worth into their home. It’s still a positive for the suburbs and a negative for the city.
“the average person moving to the suburbs”
Isn’t the average person buying in the suburbs moving within or between suburbs?
And, again, without a denominator, we don’t know that it’s a real increase, or just a decrease in lower priced sales.
“Isn’t the average person buying in the suburbs moving within or between suburbs?”
Don’t think anyone really knows. During the pandemic, huge migration out of the city to the suburbs due to getting more space and it was cheaper. In my experience chatting with some suburban realtors recently, lots of suburban buyers are those relocating for jobs from other cities and states.
“But it still tells you that the average person moving to the suburbs now is spending more than the average person moving there in the past for whatever reason.”
All it tells you is that there is no inventory and bidding wars. So, yes, they are spending more than those who moved there pre-pandemic. If you want a house, you have to pay up. Look at Wheaton. Population of 53,000. Only 75 homes on the market right now. This is like the Bay Area or LA in record low inventory. I’ve never seen it this low before.
Other than that, it doesn’t tell you anything city versus suburbs. Hottest neighborhoods in the city have low inventory and bidding wars too.
“Its like a hour train ride from Barrington to the city, the same as a 1.2 mile bus ride in the city”
It’s about 45 minutes but you have to add time to get to and from the train stations on either end so it’s at least an hour, unless you live in downtown Barrington and can walk there.
So, yeah, I wouldn’t want to do either of those commutes every day. Most young people did not pre-pandemic which is why neither location was great for those who worked in the loop.
But the problem is, many people moved to the suburbs thinking they would never have to do the commute ever again. Or maybe just one day a week. But three and four days are now on the table again. Lol.
We’re going to see changes in behavior. The expressways are a nightmare out there right now. On Tuesday thru Thursday, it can take 2 hours to get downtown from far out western suburbs like Wheaton. Ugh.
Behavior is going to change again. The city is going to be in favor, especially close in neighborhoods.
“Other than that, it doesn’t tell you anything city versus suburbs.”
Buyers in the city are paying less while buyers in the suburbs are paying more than they were. That tells me the suburbs are gaining in popularity and the city is losing in popularity.
“But the problem is, many people moved to the suburbs thinking they would never have to do the commute ever again. Or maybe just one day a week. But three and four days are now on the table again. Lol.
We’re going to see changes in behavior. The expressways are a nightmare out there right now. On Tuesday thru Thursday, it can take 2 hours to get downtown from far out western suburbs like Wheaton. Ugh.”
Hmm. Did people really think this pandemic would last forever, or make WFH permanent? I don’t think so. When the suburban surge happened, nobody knew what would happen with their jobs or the world. They just knew where they wanted to be.
The various Chicagoland burbs grew because of, among other things, their Metra stops, and pre-pandemic, it was simply a way of life for people to get to one, then ride one, to and from the city. Returning to that is certainly not without readjustment pain, but give it a while, and people will accept it. I mean, people have endured worse over the course of human history, including those for whom WFH was never an option throughout the pandemic. Believe me, I HATE making my 50-60 minute commute (around 30 on transit and 20-30 total walking on both ends). But it didn’t bother me pre-pandemic, and in another year or so (hopefully) it will stop bothering me so much.
All of that said, I can remember in the 3-6 years or so leading up to the pandemic seeing a surprising (to me) depression in Chicago area burb pricing. There were moments when I could have maybe seen moving back to the Chicago area and was thus watching the pricing in our general range in places like Wilmette. It seemed low (even accounting for the taxes), and some extended family with young kids left the city and bought places up there for prices that, today, look like a steal (though I suppose we feel that way about ours here, now five years into owning it).
So everyone taking mass transit has concierge service and can waddle out of their suit box 2/2 to a bus waiting for them?
After all Chicago busses made Mussolini envious
“Buyers in the city are paying less while buyers in the suburbs are paying more than they were.”
No one is buying in down market suburbs, and more people are buying small condos and in down market areas in the city
also fits the limited data tho.
btw, Gary:
I’m not arguing whether it is true or not, but only how we get to the conclusion based on the data shown in the link you shared:
https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-chicago-268cac42-ae1f-4775-bc91-4b1e77473748.html
JohnnyU on June 1st, 2023 at 11:10 am
“All window units included a Through-the-Wall unit in the “master” bedroom.”
Did they have sophisticated chips?
—
Was reading the NYT. They mentioned this unit
https://mackaydixon.com/properties/79-w-12th-street-unit-5g-newyorkcity-ny-10011-rplu-5122449879
In the actual NYT article, the NYT said:
PROS
The kitchen was renovated four years ago. The air-conditioning units are disguised with decorative covers.
JohnnyU: Want to be a counter party to a wager on whether the NYT will run an article in 2023/2024 highlight sophisticated chips in wall units? Lemme know.
There is a complete mismatch between sellers & buyers right now. Sellers are sitting on low rate mortgages that mostly aren’t assumable and buyers are only going to qualify for mortgages at much higher rates, even over double what the sellers are at. This is a massive joke from the Federal Reserve printing over eight trillion dollars to essentially pull demand forward all those years. Now that demand evaporates.
Big government people had no problem with the Federal Reserve interfering in private markets and mis-allocating resources so long as it benefited their bottom line but the kicker is most never cashed out on top.
It will take years for the RE market to ever resemble any sort of normalcy again and that’s only if rates stabilize at a sustainable rate and not be subject to these insane swings. Right now is like the summer of 2008 and a major investment bank just failed and had to be acquired by another and everyone is pretending everything is alright.
“JohnnyU: Want to be a counter party to a wager on whether the NYT will run an article in 2023/2024 highlight sophisticated chips in wall units? Lemme know.”
Ha
Would be shocked if they havent already
I wonder if they can define what makes them smart?
“It will take years for the RE market to ever resemble any sort of normalcy again and that’s only if rates stabilize at a sustainable rate and not be subject to these insane swings.”
Will it?
According to all the big national new homebuilders, the market has already stabilized. Buyers have gotten “used” to the rates being over 6%. They are doing what I said they would do. They are moving down in price to match what they are able to afford on a monthly payment. Homebuilders are also buying down the rate so that also helps the buyers. But many are building smaller homes already too, which are cheaper. And in certain markets there have been price cuts and incentives.
The job market is still good. The demand is there because people can afford a home at 6% and 7% rates. There simply haven’t been enough homes built in the last 15 years for the demand from the largest generation in US history and the Baby Boomers moving to the South.
And what are the “insane swings”? Doesn’t seem to be swinging much to me unless you count mortgage rates going to 7.25% and then coming back down to 6% a “swing”? Otherwise, they went up fast but have remained above 6% for what 8 or 9 months now?
This isn’t anything like the summer of 2008. Anyone who says that, loses all credibility.
A major investment bank hasn’t just failed. Are some VCs hurting in Silicon Valley because their growth bank isn’t going to lend to their favorite start-ups? Sure. But so?
As Buffett has said, when the water goes out you can see who was swimming naked. And now we see.
But keep going on being all dramatic that this is somehow 2008. Go look at a chart of national housing inventory starting in 2005 to 2012 and tell me again how this is 2008. Lol.
If Bobbo is right, he should be buying a house with cash by early next year, what with the windfall from all the shorts.
When crains business has a hit piece out on the Chicago housing market, you know how trash the market is.
I’d actually be willing to buy low on a walkable nice condo in River North or West Loop right now if I had to work in Chicago.
The risks are getting shot, mugged, or carjacked yourself. Other risks include continued garbage education for your kids or never ending strikes by CTU. Also factor in much higher property taxes now that federal Covid relief is over and pension funds continuing to fall behind.
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/residential-real-estate/chicago-home-prices-decline-remote-work-crime-fears
Real estate agents begging people not to leave Chicago….
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/residential-real-estate/chicago-crime-real-estate-agent-makes-case-chicagoans-staying-put
Usual issues… crime, covid lockdowns, etc.
“Real estate agents begging people not to leave Chicago….”
If you lived here through the pandemic, it’s been a tough 3 years. City was abandoned, downtown empty, we had the riots, people wearing masks, eating outside even in the winter months, kids going to school over zoom. It was rough.
Many people are exhausted.
Crime is up in most neighborhoods since 2019 (is lower yoy in most categories.) But it’s also creeped into the richest neighborhoods, where it wasn’t before. So now there was a shooting late at night near the Lincoln Park Zoo. There have been several in River North. Petty crime, like muggings while you walk down the street, seem to be up, even in the nicer neighborhoods. Carjackings are down yoy but they aren’t low enough.
I have recounted here how I have changed my behavior while out and about in the city. And I have friends who are doing the same. For instance, women are being pushed down in the daylight hours while walking down the street in Hyde Park for their phones. Guys pull up, go up behind the woman, push her down, take her phone. Lovely. My friends who live in that neighborhood tell me they do not walk with their phones out anymore (some don’t carry them at all.)
I also tell my kids not to go out after midnight. Sorry. Have parties at friends homes and spend the night or leave before midnight.
But if my house was robbed or I was carjacked driving into my garage in Bucktown, yeah, I might have a different view and start thinking that Barrington is better. (By the way, they just warned about home burglaries a few months ago out there too.)
Do I think the national drumbeat, which is constant, that Chicago is a “hellhole” is contributing to the negative sentiment about the city? Yes, I do. New Orleans has more crime than Chicago but Fox doesn’t feature it on a near daily basis. Maybe being a city in a red state has that advantage.
The new mayor has also been extremely quiet since taking office. If you didn’t know better, you wouldn’t even know we HAD a new mayor. He walked in the Pride Parade today but that was the first I’ve seen of him since he started nearly a month ago.
The city, however, feels very much like it did pre-pandemic now. Restaurants are packed. Riverwalk is packed. People are out as they are every summer. Downtown real estate continues to recover. Sales up from the pandemic lows 2 and 3 years ago. People aren’t afraid to live downtown anymore as the vibe and energy has returned. New apartment towers continue to get built. That will likely slow now that the Fed has tightened the money supply.
In the loop, Chicago is back to 65% of pre-pandemic levels in the office. That’s the highest of the major downtowns in the country and it continues to rise. I feel like we’ll see 75% before we level off. Many companies are ordering people back to 3 days a week after Labor Day. And that commute is going to suck from Barrington.
“I’d actually be willing to buy low on a walkable nice condo in River North or West Loop right now if I had to work in Chicago.”
Nothing is “low” in the West Loop right now, and hasn’t been for 10 years, Mike HG, so that dream can end before it begins. River North has struggled in recent years as they’ve mostly built new apartments, not condos, unless it’s over $1 million. That means a lot of the housing stock is older. Prices haven’t gone up in a lot of the buildings for years unless you did a renovation.
You can still get an unrenovated 2/2 in one of the River North buildings with original housing boom finishes for probably around $400k. Is that “buying low”?
Chicago is really a neighborhood by neighborhood case basis. Crain’s just reported that average home prices have spiked to over $1 million in Bronzeville now. It remains one of the hottest neighborhoods in the city.
The Chicago market is neighborhood by neighborhood. Inventory is still near record lows on the north side. If something with all the features is listed, and it’s updated, it will go under contract within days.
We’ve chattered about this building on Belmont several times in the last 15 years. It has 8 units with retail on the first floor. This 2/2 came on the market at $350k and was under contract within 3 days. It has C/A, W/D and an exterior parking space in a popular location.
Even with high mortgage rates, it’s likely still cheaper than renting, if you have the down payment and intend to stay awhile.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1658-W-Belmont-Ave-60657/unit-2E/home/26793669
Here’s a recent flip. Updated the kitchen and both bathrooms. New paint and light fixtures. Love the wallpaper in the second bathroom and the blue vanity.
It all worked. Sold last August for $462,000. On the market for $565,000 and under contract within 3 days in Lakeview.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1645-W-School-St-60657/unit-408/home/12772875
Also, the low inventory in the suburbs will really hinder many from the city from moving. I know someone who sold a condo in the Gold Coast, had an offer on a suburban house but it fell through in the inspection. There is nothing else on the market. Her furniture is in storage and she’s staying in a long-term residential hotel, for now.
But no one wants to do that for months. And she’s not an entire family, with kids in school, either.
“If you lived here through the pandemic, it’s been a tough 3 years. City was abandoned, downtown empty, we had the riots, people wearing masks, eating outside even in the winter months, kids going to school over zoom. It was rough.”
How is Chicago any different in this regard than any other major city?
“How is Chicago any different in this regard than any other major city?”
It’s not. All big cities saw the same trauma. All are still trying to recover both in their business districts and in residential neighborhoods. All are seeing an increase in crime and homelessness. All have higher violence.
It’s time we admitted that the pandemic DID impact all of us mentally, not just physically. People are not alright.
Here’s another multi-offer sale that a reader sent me.
Up in Southport/Graceland West. 4/3.5 townhouse. Updated with current finishes. Listed at $899,000. Sold for $980,000.
Prior sale was in 2014 for $680,000.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/4010-N-Clark-St-60613/unit-O/home/12717442
Apparently, many in Chicago will be talking about the Crown family this week. Second prominent Chicago billionaire to pass away in the last few weeks.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/james-crown-dies-car-crash-colorado-racetrack-chicago-billionaire/
Two years later this Old Town condo sells for $150,000 more. Wow.
$812,500 in Dec 2019
$799,000 in 2021
$947,000 in 2023
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/437-W-North-Ave-60610/unit-603/home/12656890
“Two years later this Old Town condo”
$1,060,000 in May 2007
“in May 2007”
bubble pricing.
“bubble pricing.”
Obviously. And +CPI it’s $1.55m
But I’ve been reading somewhere about how Chicago is above bubble pricing in lots of areas.
“in May 2007”
“bubble pricing.”
Definitely. It’s truly amazing how high prices got during that boom. With high mortgage rates. How was everyone affording it? I know people didn’t put anything down (100% all interest loans or using the HELOC loan as a downpayment) but STILL.
“$1,060,000 in May 2007”
The original owner bought at the top and got crushed. Many people did and still are. The owners in 130 N. Garland (the Heritage) are selling near the 2005 purchase price too.
But no one wants to talk about how someone bought it in 2021, during the pandemic, and just made $150k? Lol. That’s the real story. That’s the return of Chicago real estate. Prior two sellers lost money. Looks like similar finishes so no big renovation.
The low inventory is really making a big difference. We’re finally experiencing what California has experienced for 20 years.
“Recently updated with beautiful new flooring, lighting, smart features, fireplace details, dishwasher, washer/dryer”
That sounds like easily $50k of updates, tho.
The full listing history of the prior sale is interesting:
June-18: listed
9/9/19: listed $850k
1/2/20: Sold by original owner, $812,500
10/21/20: listed $950k
11/2/20: $895k
11/30/20: $850k
1/26/21: $799k
Pending twice, then sold for $799k
3/13/23: Listed $950k
Not finding pix from either the ’18/19 or ’20 listings, so not clear who did what work, but overall, it looks like everything excpet the baths has been redone.
Also of note: the roof deck plans don’t include any access to the roof deck–shows a gate that exits to the bare roof. Seems rather incomplete.