Market Conditions: August Sales Rose 6.3% But Harder YOY Comps Are Coming
As expected, Chicago August home sales rose 6.3% compared to August of last year.
From the Illinois Association of Realtors:
The city of Chicago saw sales of 2,629 homes in August 2015, up 6.3 percent from last year when 2,474 homes were sold. The median price of a home in Chicago was $270,000, up 0.2 percent over August 2014 when the median price was $269,500.
August Sales since 2007:
- August 2007: 2923 sales
- August 2008: 2078 sales
- August 2009: 1927 sales
- August 2010: 1486 sales
- August 2011: 1787 sales
- August 2012: 2209 sales
- August 2013: 2850 sales
- August 2014: 2414 sales
- August 2015: 2629 sales
“It’s taking a phenomenally short time to sell a home in the city of Chicago,” said Hugh Rider, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and co-president of Realty and Mortgage Co. in Chicago. “Buyers have a short window to swoop in and make an offer because there are so many others looking for properties even this late into the selling season.”
Interestingly, this was the first time I can recall the IAR actually breaking out the foreclosure sales prices versus the non-distressed sales prices in Chicago.
The median price of non-distressed properties was nearly unchanged. Of course, the median is just whatever mix is selling at that particular time and doesn’t tell you a whole heck of a lot.
I wonder why they decided to comment on it this time?
“Sales returned to a more modest long-term annual growth rate in August while prices continued to increase,” said Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) at the University of Illinois. “Of interest in Chicago was the fact that the median price of non-foreclosed properties remained virtually unchanged while the median price for foreclosed properties increased, contributing to the modest overall price increase. From our data, the percentage of distressed sales among the total sales for the Chicago PMSA was 13.5 percent in August. However, the good news is that it was the lowest August reading since 2009 and much lower than the peak (23.7 percent) in 2010.”
August median price since 2007:
- August 2007: $305,000
- August 2008: $297,500
- August 2009: $229,900
- August 2010: $200,000
- August 2011: $192,500
- August 2012: $200,000
- August 2013: $245,000
- August 2014: $270,000
- August 2015: $270,000
The next few months we’ll start to see more difficult year over year comps. It was late in 2014 that the market started heating up again.
All the agents are complaining about low housing inventories.
Are low inventories hurting sales this fall?
Illinois home sales and median prices rise again in August [Illinois Association of Realtors, September 21, 2015]
Downtown, there are so many new apartment buildings being proposed and/or built, why should anyone ever buy a condo again?
Most of the apartments are nicer than anything you can buy- even right across the street. The kitchens/baths are newer.
Will aging condos be a problem for sellers going forward? All those millennials are used to living in apartments with the latest modern finishes. If you have the older cherry suburban cabinets, will you have to do a kitchen remodel to sell?
It should get interesting the next few years. It will have been 10 years since the bubble era condo towers were built.
The housing market seems to have slowed a bit right now even though rates are still low. I can’t tell if it’s just a normal fall slowdown or something else.
Nice picture sabrina!
The newer ‘luxury’ rentals have awful kitchens, they are horrible, have you seen the units in ‘the jones’ or the ones planned for ‘the xavier’? horrible, I couldn’t live with a kitchen or even living room like that
then again I’m not paying 3500 bucks to live in a 2 bedroom shoebox either just cuz its new and has a tiny pool that might get use a month out of the year
updated properties are flying off the shelves and newer built condos/townhouses are renting for prices I find completely ridiculous
Well the prices seem to have stabilized so no incentive for people to keep buying and selling as they did during the bubble. So the days of house flipping as a job or a side family income might be over. Maybe finally folks would only buy when they intend to stay put for while and I think this is a good thing.
Come on – look at the first chart from Gary L. “Monthly Chicago Home Sales”
http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2015/09/chicago-real-estate-market-update-august-home-sales-up-over-last-year-but/
Notice those peaks and valleys in the chart? This is the normal slowdown on a upward tending scale.
I think sellers are already being penalized for outdated finishes. Finishes seem to trump size…which you would think would create an opportunity for flippers to update units.
I don’t think we’ll see tougher comps until January. We were running negative comps through January of last year. What’s helping us now is that distressed sales have bottomed out so we’re not experiencing that drag any more.
The frenzy is officially over:
The Wall Street Journal and other Big Media outlets reported a 4.8% month to month decline, using the monthly seasonal adjustment error annualized. This was below the Wall Street economist crowd consensus guesstimate of a 1.1% drop. In fact, using actual, not seasonally adjusted data, August sales fell by 8.4% or 46,000 units. It is not unheard of for sales to decline in August. It has happened six times since 1999, but this was the worst August drop since the data began being reported in 1999. This was on the heels of the second worst July month to month performance since the housing crash
source: http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/existing-homes-sales-record-biggest-august-drop-ever-but-prices-keep-inflating/
Looks like Dennis Rodkin at Crain’s is seeing what I’m seeing.
He thinks there is a cooling off too and it’s not only seasonal.
https://soundcloud.com/morningshiftwbez/growth-in-home-prices-and-number-of-home-sales-is-cooling-off
“I think sellers are already being penalized for outdated finishes. Finishes seem to trump size…which you would think would create an opportunity for flippers to update units.”
Prices for outdated units aren’t cheap enough. In order to flip it, they have to get some kind of incredible deal on it. $25,000 less than a fully remodeled unit isn’t going to cut it. A flipper can’t make any money off of that.
could existing sales be struggling due to the large amount of new construction? Just curious as the numbers in that market seem strong according to the census numbers
“could existing sales be struggling due to the large amount of new construction?”
What new construction? New home sales are barely above recession levels.
“What new construction?”
Yep. See:
http://www.metrostudyreport.com/category/chicago-market/
Less than 20% of peak, and yet the best in 7 years.
over last year new construction nationwide is booming
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf
some numbers over 10%+ y/y
and Anon’s show locally that proof as well
“some numbers over 10%+ y/y
and Anon’s show locally that proof as well”
But that’s less than 700 extra homes, over a 12 month period, in a market with close to 100,000 sales in the same period.
I don’t know… just cruised redfin’s newest listings in some of the green zone about 95% of them are circa 2006 finishes and probably 80% cookie cutter
“Less than 20% of peak, and yet the best in 7 years.”
It’s coming off of Great Recession lows which were basically Great Depression lows. But compared to even a “normal” housing market, it’s way below normal. Both nationally and in Chicago.
Where Chicago IS building is in apartments for rent. 10,000 of those expected to be built (or whatever it is now because a new building is being announced almost every day.) But these are, of course, not going to be home sales- at least not yet.
Sabrina and sonies, perhaps new home/construction building is America’s new growth industry- build more and more houses. Luxury houses, apartment buildings, shopping malls, etc.
rented housing – still housing, yes I know it doesn’t count for those numbers
and people are still moving into these places with IMO ridiculous rents… renting still much more expensive than owning so people will continue to buy in the meantime
housing is definitely not a growth industry… lol its about as cyclical of an industry as you can get
http://www.chicagotribune.com/classified/realestate/elitestreet/ct-elite-street-vince-vaughn-0925-biz-20150924-story.html
How can this be? We are past peak pricing. Choose your answer:
a) River North is not a prime neighborhood
b) He’s an idiot
c) He overpaid
d) It’s an exception to the rule for a reason yet to be fabricated
How about e), Gary?
Vince has been trying to sell for years probably because many buyers remember this:
http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2007-07-11/sports/0707100249_1_duct-tape-walker-s-mother-chicago-police
Antoine Walker’s River North neighborhood includes multimillion-dollar residences owned by actor Vince Vaughn, former Bears Pro Bowl defensive back Jerry Azumah and Juanita Jordan, the ex-wife of former Bulls star Michael Jordan.
High-tech security equipment – including cameras, motion detectors and alarms – provides protection to the homes in addition to regular Chicago police patrols. Several homeowners in the area employ private security guards to sit behind their brick edifices and monitor suspicious onlookers.
Yet Walker fell victim to a terrifying gunpoint robbery in his $4.1 million residence Monday evening. A source close to the Walker family said the 6-foot-9 Heat forward was bound with duct tape by masked intruders and robbed of jewelry, cash and his black Mercedes.
“renting still much more expensive than owning so people will continue to buy in the meantime”
But they’re not. That’s the thing. The millennials prefer to rent, maybe because they don’t have down payments to buy. Also, as I’ve been saying, the rental apartments are MUCH nicer than most of the condos on the market because the condos are 10 to 15 years old now and the finishes are dated. Everyone wants “new.”
I seriously doubt that today’s buyers are worrying about an incident that occurred 8 years ago. Most probably don’t even know about it. And if their memories went back that far then every part of this city would be stigmatized.
“I seriously doubt that today’s buyers are worrying about an incident that occurred 8 years ago. Most probably don’t even know about it. And if their memories went back that far then every part of this city would be stigmatized.”
This was in the news for a very long time. It was covered by ESPN and other national media outlets.
Vince has been trying to sell that townhouse for years. Others have also been trying to sell in that complex. If you think incidents like this (or other things that happen in the past in properties or on certain blocks) don’t matter- then I can’t believe you’re a real estate agent.
These are townhouses for very rich people. There’s a reason they’ve had their own private security in that area for years- even before this incident in 2007. No, people do not forget. The top agents in the city do not forget. You think they’re taking their clients over to look at these after what happened? No. No. No.
Believe what you want. I think it’s ridiculous to look back 8 years and to also believe that one incident makes this a more dangerous neighborhood. In fact I have the data and over a 12 month period there were no violent crimes in that area except one on Huron. It’s mostly concentrated on high traffic streets like Chicago and Ontario.
More to the point. Every time a property sells for less there is some excuse for it. Well, there are thousands of excuses for thousands of properties selling for less. So it’s not correct to say that “prices are past peak” unless you mean except for the thousands of exceptions.
IIRC that Walker robbery was committed by someone who knew someone…who was part of his entourage and this was sort of an inside job.
Though I could be remembering it incorrectly or thinking of another celebrity robbery victim.
Either way, I agree with Gary that this event from 8 years ago is stoping buyers in this neighborhood
Sabrina, millennials aren’t buying because they haven’t settled down yet. People’s attitudes toward buying has changed along with rental options, particularly in cities like Chicago.
First, they realize that careers and where they live while in their 20s may be fleeting. In these situations, buying is not always advisable. As has been noted many times, many are skipping the smaller places and just opting to buy nicer places once their lives have settled.
I work a lot with young professionals and they used to buy in droves almost immediately out of b-school, law school, etc. Now, I mostly see couples (they are settled) in that demographic buying immediately instead of singles.
Second, rental options are offering many of the benefits of owning now – nicer finishes and luxury appointments. The rental options in Chicago used to suck big time. You either had dated and stale high rises with dingy carpet OR run down vintage walk ups. Buildings targeting the professional DINKs who wanted to rent were non-existent.
“Sabrina, millennials aren’t buying because they haven’t settled down yet. People’s attitudes toward buying has changed along with rental options, particularly in cities like Chicago.”
The oldest millennials are like 32 or 33 years old now.
But this is the difference. They will rent for 10 years or more. They’re massively in debt and don’t have the down payments anyway. And apartment rentals are SO much nicer than most condos now. Why would you ever buy? Maybe you buy when you’re 35 and have a couple of kids. But by then you’re moving to the suburbs because of schools and other things.
“Either way, I agree with Gary that this event from 8 years ago is stoping buyers in this neighborhood”
Wrong. When you go to look at these and they tell you “there’s this special assessment so we can pay for private security to drive around the block 24/7” are you going to buy there?
That’s why there have been foreclosures in this complex. It was the wrong product built for that neighborhood. They are finally going to build a few more high rises around here. Maybe that will bring some more people and possibly improve it. But it’s already been over a decade for these and the situation hasn’t really improved over there.
Vince Vaughn has been trying to sell this for like 5 years or more, right? If I remember right, he’s been renting it out for years.
People don’t forget. The first thing rich people worry about is their security.
“More to the point. Every time a property sells for less there is some excuse for it. Well, there are thousands of excuses for thousands of properties selling for less. So it’s not correct to say that “prices are past peak” unless you mean except for the thousands of exceptions.”
In a Zillow report out yesterday, they said that about 30% of the national market is now past peak. 30% is still below. Everyone else is flat to neutral. That is true of Chicago and its neighborhoods. The GreenZone is past peak. It varies from building to building and block to block. If you’ve done NOTHING to your 1995 house and are trying to get peak price- it’s probably not going to happen. If you’ve updated the kitchen and baths with modern features/fixtures, it will probably sell in a week.
If you’re on a creepy block (yes- we all know what those are) in a top neighborhood, you won’t get the top price. Is it a 1970s townhouse? Those are considered out of date because of lower ceilings etc. You might not get peak price for that property. Did you put in a marble bath into your vintage top floor Lakeview condo? Then you’ll get a new high price.
Did your condo building raise assessments or charge a special? Then you may have difficulty selling. Did they announce a new high rise apartment building on the parking lot next to your condo building which will block your views? Then you’re not going to get peak.
But we’re past peak now in the GZ in Chicago. It’s pretty obvious. And the Appraisal Institute data which monitors almost 70 high rise buildings downtown has said as much. Two or three of the big neighborhoods they track are past peak. Most of the others are within 5% of that – even with the crappy 1970s high rises that no one wants to buy in thrown in.
It is BOOMING out there. Portage Park bungalows back to $350,000- $400,000. Jefferson Park bungalows back to $250,000 to $300,000. These are supposedly middle class neighborhoods.
“The GreenZone is past peak.”
Unless your building has a lot of rentals, or there was a crime 8 years ago, or your finishes are out of date, or you’ve been trying to sell for 4 years and can’t, or your ceilings are too low, or your view got blocked, or you overpaid, or you had a special assessment, or….
Like what percent of all properties fall into one of the myriad “ors”? That’s my point. It’s a ton.
“Portage Park bungalows back to $350,000- $400,000.”
In the last month 36 closings. 23 of those below 300K. 5 distressed sales. Above 300K you have some recent construction or rehabs. The first non-rehab I found with history sold for 333K in 2004 and just closed at 315K. That was 5831 W Eastwood. Doesn’t sound booming to me.
“Though I could be remembering it incorrectly or thinking of another celebrity robbery victim.”
You remember correctly.
” or….”
Don’t forget: “seller is an idiot”. That’s my favorite.
“In the last month 36 closings. 23 of those below 300K. 5 distressed sales. Above 300K you have some recent construction or rehabs. The first non-rehab I found with history sold for 333K in 2004 and just closed at 315K. That was 5831 W Eastwood. Doesn’t sound booming to me.”
I love it how you look at only the last month (which was NOT the peak buying season for bungalows) and declare that the prices aren’t that high and that it’s not booming.
Lol.
Typical for a realtor.
Can we agree, then, that the market seemed to slow kind of dramatically in August for some unknown reason and remains pretty weak right now through September into October?
It’s really a mystery because it was hot, hot, hot and now it’s not, not, not. Even with near record low mortgage rates and low inventories. Houses and condos alike are both sitting. Tons of price reductions. Heck- I almost see more price reductions every day than I do new listings.
Sellers know if they don’t get a contract in the next 4 weeks it’s toast for them until February.
Do we have to be reminded AGAIN what the actual data is? You’re going to argue against the data now Gary?
In August, the loop was past peak in the downtown and others were just a few percent off:
“Resale condo prices in the Loop have completely recovered, while prices in other parts of downtown are within striking distance of pre-bust levels, according to a survey of 65 big downtown high-rises by Appraisal Research Counselors, a Chicago-based consulting firm.”
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20150827/CRED0701/150829882/loop-leads-downtown-condo-comeback
The September data- which was through June- showed some softening, apparently, as now none of the neighborhoods are past peak. But, of course, it all depends on what is selling, right? As I’ve been saying over and over and over again.
“A survey of 65 large downtown buildings found that average condo resale prices on a square-foot basis were within 4.3 percent of their 2008 peak in the first half of the year.
Resale prices in the Loop were just 2.1 percent off their peak, the closest of all six downtown submarkets, according to the survey by Appraisal Research Counselors, a Chicago-based consulting firm.”
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20140923/CRED0701/140929972/downtown-condo-prices-back-near-2008-peak
The market has cooled in part because people got greedy, plain and simple. I have my eye on half a dozen properties right now, every single one is asking well above peak, without extenuating circumstances such as major rehab work, all are on the market 30 days minimum, and is still at least 50 or 100K overpriced, (in some cases after multiple price reductions).
I won’t even look at them in person until and unless these people cool their greedy impulses. I am not the type to lowball but in this market so many of these clowns have it coming.
“I love it how you look at only the last month (which was NOT the peak buying season for bungalows) and declare that the prices aren’t that high and that it’s not booming….Typical for a realtor.”
I think the typical realtor would want you to believe that it IS booming.
I’d like to see what 65 buildings the ARC guys looked at and how they concluded that prices were near peak. I’ve looked at The Pinnacle and The Heritage and concluded prices were not that high. I looked at 340 On The Park and that building has done quite well. I intend to look at more buildings.
Posted my September update yesterday: http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2015/10/september-chicago-real-estate-market-update-highest-sales-in-9-years/
As the post says I think it’s going to be the highest sales in 9 years. There is a slowdown in contract activity which may translate to a slowdown in closings. But September was up 8.2% over last year – it will be more like 5.5% according to the IAR. Still have record low inventory levels.
“Still have record low inventory levels.”
Thanks for the update Gary. It’s just dead out there as far as new inventory. It’s only mid-October and it feels like the week of Christmas. Some days there is literally almost nothing coming on in large swaths of the city.
If you’re not under contract on your property in like 2 weeks in these market conditions, you really have to re-evaluate your price point. Because if it’s priced well, it’s going under contract in like 72 hours of being listed.
Why isn’t anyone moving? Are they waiting until next spring and waiting for prices to continue to go higher?
thats wierd I just got an e-mail from redfin that says listings in river north are up 10% Month/Month
Who wants to list now when there’s A) little to buy, B) what there is out there is very highly priced and C) the packing/moving/closing puts you right in the holiday season unless things go exceedingly well. Waiting a few months should take care of A and C at least.
In the city as a whole listing activity is basically flat to last year for September – condos/ townhomes down but SFHs up. Good question as to why. Perhaps too many still underwater, perhaps not enough good stuff to buy.
“Who wants to list now when there’s A) little to buy, B) what there is out there is very highly priced and C) the packing/moving/closing puts you right in the holiday season unless things go exceedingly well. Waiting a few months should take care of A and C at least.”
Who normally lists in October? There ARE properties listed every single year you know. The weather/holiday season is the same every year. And inventory has fallen off a cliff much more than other years. So why this year? Why is it that no one wants to move this year even though the housing market is the hottest it has been since the bust (now 8 years ago) and rates are near their lows?
There is no guarantee that next year rates will be as low. You’ll just pay more (on a monthly basis level) next year- unless you believe the Fed is never going to raise rates which may be a justifiable thought at this point.
If it’s only about inventories, why aren’t the builders converting some of these 20 to 30 high rise apartment buildings that are going up across the city? Isn’t the demand for new condos there? If not- why not?
“You’ll just pay more (on a monthly basis level) next year”
I thought you said that higher rates would mean lower housing prices.
I know two people who moved this year, but other than that most of the people I know are renting and getting their rent jacked up on them pretty badly and dealing with that annoying negotiation every year or ‘looking to buy’ but taking it slow… they missed the boat on ‘deals’ and are now stuck with having to either stay in place or way overpay for a less than desireable property.
“but other than that most of the people I know are renting and getting their rent jacked up on them pretty badly and dealing with that annoying negotiation every year or ‘looking to buy’ but taking it slow… they missed the boat on ‘deals’ and are now stuck with having to either stay in place or way overpay for a less than desireable property.”
Do any of them run a housing blog by any chance…?
ha no
Yeah, people list year round, year in and year out. But this year and season they are all too often listing a handful of crappy properties for lots of money. It’s just not compelling…
“Do any of them run a housing blog by any chance…?”
It’s amazing, isn’t it, that my rent has only gone up $25 in 3 years?
So amazing.
My rent is much cheaper than buying the identical property in my neighborhood- especially with the housing price increases- and when I need the furnace cleaned every fall, I simply call my landlord and he hires someone to do it.
Ah- it’s the life.
“they missed the boat on ‘deals’ and are now stuck with having to either stay in place or way overpay for a less than desireable property.”
Sonies- just tell your friends not to worry. They should save money and continue to enjoy the freedom of being unencumbered. If the Illinois tax situation gets really bad (property taxes too) and the winters continue to suck, they can simply tell their landlords “see ya” and move on to someplace better. It’s really the best of all worlds.
Additionally, since this is Bubble 2.0, it’s going to burst at some point. As renters, they will be, again, perfectly positioned to take advantage.
I know someone renting a lovely house in the close-in suburbs right now. Her landlord even has a gardener come twice a month. She does NOTHING except sits back and enjoys the property.
“I thought you said that higher rates would mean lower housing prices.”
Um… yes. But, ya know, it doesn’t happen the instantaneous moment rates are raised.
But then, you already knew that, didn’t ya Chuk.
Can’t get blood from a stone. Affordability is already an issue even with rates still near historic lows. The Fed is freaked about what will happen when those rates rise. It needs dramatic increases in incomes to counter those rate increases- but it’s not getting them yet.
By the way- the number of upper bracket properties is continuing to rise even with the stock market still near all time highs. I shudder to think what will happen to the luxury market in the next recession.
My gosh- there are several dozen homes for sale right now in the Gold Coast. All are just sitting there.
Dennis Rodkin did that analysis of the inventory in the suburbs for homes over $1 million. What’s it like in the Gold Coast?
The last time he covered that issue was probably in 2010 or 2011. I’m sure I did a post on it here. I think the inventory was like 4 years or something. But it looks like it’s really creeping up there again.
Why don’t rich people want to buy SFHs and rowhouses in the Gold Coast?
“But then, you already knew that, didn’t ya Chuk.”
I did. And for the record, I am bearish on housing here.
“I did. And for the record, I am bearish on housing here.”
I always thought of you more as a twink than a bear.
“And for the record, I am bearish on housing here.”
Why?
Record low inventory, unemployment rate of only 5.6% in the city of Chicago, thousands of millenials moving to Chicago every year, near record low mortgage rates.
What’s there to be bearish about?
“It’s amazing, isn’t it, that my rent has only gone up $25 in 3 years? ”
Thats nice but if you lived in a place where your rent went up you don’t think you would have had significant appreciation from purchasing at the bottom in 2012?
here’s a chart that might help you make a decision…
http://mastmedia.plu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/monthly-mortgage-payments-are-considerably-lower-than-monthly-rents.png
“What’s there to be bearish about?”
You are bullish.
I think the rent vs. buy calculation is more equal now where I live. When I bought, renting was much more expensive than buying. I could make a nice little profit if I decided to rent out my place.
As an average American, I really like owning my place. If the furnace breaks, I can replace it with exactly the type of furnace I want…same with major appliances. I can paint it whatever color I want and my dogs are free to damage the flooring. I can have dogs of any size of my choosing. My principal payments build equity. If I ever need to go into assisted living, I will have enough equity to buy my way in.
Over the long term, I still think buying is better because of the equity. After 30 years, you don’t have a mortgage payment anymore. Old people also get breaks on their property tax.
Oh, and I love being able to deduct interest and real estate tax during tax season.
Personally I love renters…… keep on renting….
Short term, renting makes sense (say less than five years). Long-term, buying makes sense (more than five years). In between, it is sort of a gamble. You could make a lot of money or you might not.
Over the long haul once settled, most people are better off buying. This is indisputable.
“Short term, renting makes sense (say less than five years). Long-term, buying makes sense (more than five years). In between, it is sort of a gamble. ”
Ha? The only thing in between is exactly 5 years. Why is that a gamble?
“Over the long haul once settled, most people are better off buying. This is indisputable.”
Not really. Not in Manhattan, San Francisco and other rent controlled cities. But that’s another animal.
Also- if you own in one of those co-op buildings along the lake, is it really “indisputable”? Even if you’re there for 50 years? With all the special assessments and whatnot? I wonder…
“Oh, and I love being able to deduct interest and real estate tax during tax season.”
This doesn’t come into play for most people. Most Americans don’t get to deduct their interest and real estate taxes. That is a deduction for the upper middle class. That means you have an expensive house payment. Because for most Americans, those deductions aren’t higher than the standard deduction, especially if you’re married.
In 2012, for instance, only 25% of all tax payers claimed a mortgage tax deduction and 77% of those made over $100,000.
“You are bullish.”
How can you NOT be? There are bidding wars everywhere.
There would have to be a major recession and/or crash of some kind for real estate to fall for the second time in 10 years when it has never fallen in Chicago in the last 75 years.
“Thats nice but if you lived in a place where your rent went up you don’t think you would have had significant appreciation from purchasing at the bottom in 2012?”
I don’t know. You all are telling me that there isn’t that much appreciation in the GZ. What has my downpayment done in the stock market the last 3 years? Pretty darn good.
Maybe it’s a wash during that time? Maybe I didn’t have to pay a special assessment for those new windows that the former owner just didn’t tell me would be coming in a year or two? Maybe I didn’t have to buy the lawn mower, the snow blower, and the new French doors (since I bought a single family house)?
There is a LOT that goes into the calculation. Anything that is short term- is probably not going to go real well. That’s why I look at the rent v own calculator on the NYT website. It’s pretty realistic about how long it takes for it to be better to buy than to rent.
“How can you NOT be? There are bidding wars everywhere.”
When have I heard that before….
“How can you NOT be? There are bidding wars everywhere.”
Remember in 2011/2012 when everyone here was so bearish and properties sat on the market for months? Yeah, THAT is when to be bullish. Not now.
“When everyone’s crying you should be buying. When everyone’s yelling you should be selling.”
“Remember in 2011/2012 when everyone here was so bearish and properties sat on the market for months? Yeah, THAT is when to be bullish. Not now.”
But that makes no sense. In 2013 there were bidding wars and a frenzy. Prices were soaring then too. Why weren’t you bearish then? Why weren’t you bearish in 2014? But you weren’t. You weren’t bearish either of those 2 years. Gosh- if you go with your view then you would have been bearish from about 1995 until 2008 because everyone else was buying houses and they weren’t sitting on the market for months. Lol.
How could anyone be bearish on the housing market anyway? It NEVER goes down. Why would it? You’re talking like it’s a stock. People need a place to live. It’s a utility. So for that reason the old, “buy when there’s blood in the streets” doesn’t apply.
“Why weren’t you bearish then? Why weren’t you bearish in 2014? But you weren’t. You weren’t bearish either of those 2 years.”
No, but you were.
And “bearish” may be too strong of a word. How about “not bullish”?
“Ha? The only thing in between is exactly 5 years. Why is that a gamble?”
lol! good one miumiu