Market Conditions: August Sales Were the Lowest in 10 Years as Rates Rose
The Illinois Association of Realtors is out with the August sales data. As we already know from Gary’s update, sales were down again in August.
But inventory remains low as well.
In Chicago, home sales (single-family and condominiums) in August 2022 totaled 2,293 homes sold, down 21.4 percent from August 2021 sales of 2,919 homes.
The median price of a home in the city of Chicago in August 2022 was $317,500, a 5.2 percent decrease from August 2021, when it was $335,000.
August sales since 2007:
- August 2007: 2923 sales
- August 2008: 2078 sales
- August 2009: 1927 sales
- August 2010: 1486 sales
- August 2011: 1787 sales
- August 2012: 2209 sales
- August 2013: 2850 sales
- August 2014: 2414 sales
- August 2015: 2701 sales
- August 2016: 2844 sales
- August 2017: 2791 sales
- August 2018: 2754 sales
- August 2019: 2601 sales
- August 2020: 2870 sales
- August 2021: 2919 sales
- August 2022: 2293 sales
August median price since 2007:
- August 2007: $305,000
- August 2008: $297,500
- August 2009: $229,900
- August 2010: $200,000
- August 2011: $192,500
- August 2012: $200,000
- August 2013: $245,000
- August 2014: $269,500
- August 2015: $271,000
- August 2016: $271,000
- August 2017: $284,000
- August 2018: $280,000
- August 2019: $289,900
- August 2020: $335,000
- August 2021: $335,000
- August 2022: $317,500
“Typical real estate markets ebb and flow, and the decreases in sales price and closed sales in August due to a lack of inventory aren’t a surprise based on the fast pace we’ve seen over the last few years,” said Antje Gehrken, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and president and designated managing broker of A.R.E. Partners. “Despite these declines, days on the market remain low, showing that there’s still buyer demand and a quick turnaround on homes priced right and ready to sell.”
Statewide inventory declined 20.9% to 26,953 from 34,083. Similarly, Chicago inventory also dropped year-over-year by 18.3% to 7540 from 9231.
In Chicago, days on the market fell 15.6% to 27 from 32 days last year.
“The housing market in Illinois is showing signs of a return to normal conditions,” said Dr. Daniel McMillen, head of the Stuart Handler Department of Real Estate (SHDRE) at the University of Illinois at Chicago College of Business Administration. “Prices have declined since their peak in June, sales are declining, and foreclosures are increasing. Our prediction is that house prices will continue to decline modestly over the next few months, while the number of sales will show its usual late-year slowdown.”
The 30-year fixed mortgage was 5.22% down from 5.41% in July. But it was up substantially from August of 2021 when it was just 2.84%.
With rates rising in September, further slowing of Chicago’s housing market is expected.
Is the Chicago housing market frozen until rates decline?
Houses sold fast in August and median prices rose in majority of Illinois counties [Illinois Association of Realtors, Press Release, by Bill Kozar, September 21, 2022]
“Is the Chicago housing market frozen[?]”
I swear I read *just this week* someone saying “It is still red hot in the housing market.”
Lemme see if I can find that…oh, here it is:
http://cribchatter.com/?p=28790#comment-1235128
Its just frozen in a red hot state
The medians, adjusted for inflation, are pretty ugly, unless you bought into the bust in ’10-’12:
August 2007: $305,000 +cpi = $434k
August 2008: $297,500 +cpi = $402k
August 2009: $229,900 +cpi = $315k
August 2010: $200,000 +cpi = $271k
August 2011: $192,500 +cpi = $251k
August 2012: $200,000 +cpi = $257k
August 2013: $245,000 +cpi = $310k
August 2014: $269,500 +cpi = $335k
August 2015: $271,000 +cpi = $337k
August 2016: $271,000 +cpi = $333k
August 2017: $284,000 +cpi = $342k
August 2018: $280,000 +cpi = $329k
August 2019: $289,900 +cpi = $334k
August 2020: $335,000 +cpi = $381k
August 2021: $335,000 +cpi = $362k
August 2022: $317,500
Basically flat with *2009*, which was a terrible market.
“Basically flat with *2009*, which was a terrible market.”
Could Chicago be the superstar housing market over the next year or two if these rates remain high?
We’re one of the few major markets with a lot of affordable homes. You can still buy a 3/2 house in the suburbs in the $200s and $300s. 7% rates won’t devastate us because buyers can trade down and still buy something.
“Could Chicago be the superstar housing market over the next year or two if these rates remain high?”
How are you measuring superstar?
You’ve said multiple times recently that the market is both frozen and red hot, so no clue what you think makes for a ‘superstar market”–only being down 50% in closings? having median only be down 20%?
If you measure solely by %age decrease in C-S, yeah, there’s a chance.
“You’ve said multiple times recently that the market is both frozen and red hot, so no clue what you think makes for a ‘superstar market”–only being down 50% in closings? having median only be down 20%?”
Not falling at all.
Illinois is actually one of the leading states right now in falling inventory, down 14%. All of the sunbelt is up 30% to 60% as sales have crashed. Ours is down. Some other Midwest states also down, but none as much as 14%.
For 6 years in the 1980s, Chicagoland home prices were flat even with rates above 10% for that entire period. We have a history of stability during rocky times.
Don’t understand the laser focus on inventory, like it’s a proxy for the state of the RE market
Contract cancellation in Chicago is above the national average (16.7%)
I guess that’s a positive too
Inventory is probably dropping due to people not wanting to sell at a loss
“Don’t understand the laser focus on inventory, like it’s a proxy for the state of the RE market”
You don’t get price declines without inventory. Need over 6 months of inventory to be a buyer’s market.
“Inventory is probably dropping due to people not wanting to sell at a loss”
No doubt, some of it is because they listed, they got no showings, they don’t want to do a big price reduction, so they are withdrawing the property and waiting until spring.
But prices are up 20% or more in most of Chicagoland over just the last 2 years. Most sellers shouldn’t have any issues selling right now and walking away with money.
Prices in the first 6 years of the 80s were only flat in real dollar terms–that is, they were keeping up with inflation. See https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/cwlcwldpp/851.htm
And that’s in comparison to SF and Dallas which were both rising strongly even in real terms.
And, of course, referring to the 2 years into the future.
“prices are up 20% or more in most of Chicagoland over just the last 2 years”
Cite, please.
“You don’t get price declines without inventory. Need over 6 months of inventory `to be a buyer’s market.”
+
““Inventory is probably dropping due to people not wanting to sell at a loss”
No doubt,”
So are sellers selling at a loss but its not a “price declines”?
“Inventory is probably dropping due to people not wanting to sell at a loss”
or having to buy with no inventory and a 7% mortgage.
I think the biggest obstacle to more inventory is that it’s hard to walk away from a low mortgage rate. I traded my 2.25% mortgage for a 4.75% mortgage and rates are much higher now.
BTW, I’m in NC now. Very strange place. I saw kids playing in front of their houses and riding bikes in the cul de sac! Need to call child protective services. And I can’t find the Facebook neighborhood watch page where people complain about crime.
“I saw kids playing in front of their houses and riding bikes in the cul de sac!”
No offense, but you do realize if you moved to Downers Grove or Naperville you would have seen the same thing. You’re going from living in one of the largest cities in America, which is pretty dense and has a lot of cars, to a low density city with a much smaller population.
Also, the neighborhood group is probably on Nextdoor, right? All of my friends/siblings in the Chicago suburbs are on Nextdoor to keep track of what is going on.
I’m glad for you Gary. I like the mid-atlantic states, especially for retirement. You still have seasons. There are good colleges and universities which bring an intellectual environment and sports.
“So are sellers selling at a loss but its not a “price declines”?”
At a loss JohnnyU. They don’t want to “give it away” as the market has changed. A year ago, would have made $100k on the sale and now may make $75,000. So they’re not going to list unless they HAVE to (death, divorce, moved to Florida and own the property outright and don’t care. Just want to dump it.)
That’s where you’re seeing the listings. People are still listing in the Gold Coast as the Silent Generation and Baby Boomers are moving on. They’ve been in those downtown condos for 20 or even 30 years. They want to be in Florida or Arizona full time now.
“Cite, please.”
Case Shiller.
“And that’s in comparison to SF and Dallas which were both rising strongly even in real terms.”
Yep, Texas had a 1980s housing boom thanks to energy. But then it went bust in a nasty way.
“Also, the neighborhood group is probably on Nextdoor, right? All of my friends/siblings in the Chicago suburbs are on Nextdoor to keep track of what is going on.”
I use it regularly: if I’m looking for a rec for a service of some kind (lawn mowing, concrete, whatever), or for info on street closures and whatnot, or when I’m just feeling a bit too good and positive about mankind (a few minutes scrolling Nextdoor will fix that, quickly).
So $75k profit is now a loss?
So where are these $500k properties that appreciated $100k from 2020? Or are we talking 20+ years of ownership?
You’re soused
“Also, the neighborhood group is probably on Nextdoor, right? ”
Yeah, right after posting that I changed my Nextdoor location to Chatham County and read about some woman leaving her car unlocked and someone stole her purse. Vs. someone got carjacked.
“Yeah, right after posting that I changed my Nextdoor location to Chatham County and read about some woman leaving her car unlocked and someone stole her purse. Vs. someone got carjacked.”
Again, I understand the relief of leaving a big urban city and going to the suburbs. I’ve lived in both. It’s really no different than if you had done the same in Chicagoland, or any other suburban area, for that matter.
After all of those years in a big city, it DOES get tiring. Many just want calm and fewer people around.
However, some of us feed off the energy of the big city and that’s what we prefer.
“So where are these $500k properties that appreciated $100k from 2020? Or are we talking 20+ years of ownership?”
Everywhere?
It’s funny that someone who doesn’t even live in the state of Illinois is trying to tell everyone who does what has gone on over the last 2 years.
Oh, and rents are up 15% over the last year too.
Long time lurker here as I’ve been watching the market for a while from afar.
“I like the mid-atlantic states, especially for retirement. You still have seasons. There are good colleges and universities which bring an intellectual environment and sports.”
Being born near Harlem Irving Plaza, growing up far north and after being in Washington DC for 20+ years, I can’t say for NC, but the DC area is crazy expensive to retire to. MD and VA to a certain extent as well for what you get and what’s near you. I got lucky buying a townhouse in DC in 2011 and have rode the market here since. I would absolutely “trade down” to move back home; just have to convince the spouse. Lately the pull has been palpable.
The only mid-atlantic state I would consider retiring to is Delaware. Beaches, people who remind me of Chicagoans, super low property taxes, no sales tax, and modest income tax. Plus you are in close reach to the Northeast megapolis.
“these $500k properties that appreciated $100k from 2020?”
It would be $500k paid for $420k properties bid up due to scarcity.
Funny thing is that the condo index is up 20% since…November 2016.
During which period, CPI is up … 22.7%
“It’s funny that someone who doesn’t even live in the state of Illinois is trying to tell everyone who does what has gone on over the last 2 years.”
Its funny seeing you constantly get caught in lies and then try and brush it off.
Sorry, you dont have any special insight to the Chicago housing market. Its amazing how you are almost always on the wrong side of facts/data. Given a choice between C-S data and Sabrina’s feelings, I know which side of the bet I’m taking
In essence you are mothing more than the Jim Cramer of Chicago Housing.
TFO – Assume you’re using seasonally adjusted?
“someone stole her purse. Vs. someone got carjacked.”
Nice. But give it time. Big city problems will descend upon Boulder & Chatham counties soon enough, even if I hope both can stem the tide long enough for me to someday escape to one of them. First someone steals a purse, then soon thereafter you get this (tweet picked at random)
https://twitter.com/CWBChicago/status/1577256969668218881
“Big city problems will descend upon Boulder & Chatham counties soon enough”
If a person had never been to Boulder, but upon ariving the first thing they did was get on Nextdoor and start scrolling, within about an hour they would jump back in their car and race out of town, grateful to have escaped with their life and personal property, looking up at the rearview mirrow and hoping they don’t see a character out of 28 Days Later chasing them down the road while waving a wrench from used in a Boulder Creek-side stolen bike chop shop in the air.
“Being born near Harlem Irving Plaza, growing up far north and after being in Washington DC for 20+ years, I can’t say for NC, but the DC area is crazy expensive to retire to. MD and VA to a certain extent as well for what you get and what’s near you.”
Welcome to Crib Chatter DCG.
I thought some of the Virginia towns were super popular with retirees like Roanoke and Richmond. What’s wrong with retiring there? Home prices too high?
Chicago is a great retirement city. If you buy in a high rise, you never have to shovel snow. There are a ton of public amenities, museums etc. Great shopping and entertainment. If you want to escape somewhere during the cold, we have one of the best airports.
“TFO – Assume you’re using seasonally adjusted?”
Yes, and the SFH index is up 20% since the beginning of 2020.
Of course, CPI is up 14.8% since then, so it’s not terribly surprising.
Sabrina’s verbiage reads like text pulled from a glossy brochure about an area.
How often does one really go to museums as an activity? Especially in proportion to talking about going to museums & “public amenities, etc”?
Sabrina are you constantly discovering new museums or are you repeatedly visiting a list of them?Sabrina’s verbiage reads like text pulled from a glossy brochure about an area.
How often does one really go to museums as an activity? Especially in proportion to talking about going to museums & “public amenities, etc”?
Sabrina are you constantly discovering new museums or are you repeatedly visiting a list of them?
Very meta, Bob. I’m not sure if I’m intrigued, or repulsed.
“The only mid-atlantic state I would consider retiring to is Delaware”
But what if you expanded the mid-atlantic states to include the Carolinas?
“Chicago is a great retirement city. If you buy in a high rise, you never have to shovel snow. There are a ton of public amenities, museums etc. Great shopping and entertainment. If you want to escape somewhere during the cold, we have one of the best airports.”
Yet per your comments all the old people like yourself are leaving Chicago for Florida
Since Florida doesnt have an Eataly, thats a huge win for Chicago shopping. Not being able to get REAL SAN MARANZO tomatoes is a serious draw back
“Yet per your comments all the old people like yourself are leaving Chicago for Florida”
That’s people who are already retired. Have been for 20 years. Gold Coast is clearing out of them. That means there are apartment deals for the youngest Baby Boomers and GenX. Oldest GenX is only about 5 to 10 years away from retirement now.
I think most of them would tell you they’ve had a great retirement in Chicago.
“But what if you expanded the mid-atlantic states to include the Carolinas?”
Huh? That’s the south.
“That’s people who are already retired. Have been for 20 years. Gold Coast is clearing out of them. That means there are apartment deals for the youngest Baby Boomers and GenX. Oldest GenX is only about 5 to 10 years away from retirement now.
I think most of them would tell you they’ve had a great retirement in Chicago.”
This word salad make zero sense
Best I can tell, Chicago is a great retirement city if you’re not retired? Or is Chicago a great pre-retirement city?
Did I get that right?
“How often does one really go to museums as an activity? Especially in proportion to talking about going to museums & “public amenities, etc”?”
Often. Nearly weekly. I have an annual pass. There are a lot of events once you are a member. I meet friends for lunch there. People with small children in the city will relate. This is why anonny and others said they wanted to live near Lincoln Park Zoo because they went there often with their kids.
Living in a big city isn’t for everyone Bob. Some retirees play golf 3x a week and want to live on a golf course. Others want access to intellectual activities and events that big cities afford.
There are so many organizations of varying kinds you can join in Chicago and attend events, talks, classes etc. It’s fantastic if that’s what your interests are.
Don’t forget, park district classes and events, and the universities give retirees special access to audit classes. You can live in Hyde Park and take classes.
I recommend people check out Eventbrite for what is going on and what they can join.
Big city retirement is fantastic. It would be great to retire in NYC too, as long as you could afford it. Same with DC, Boston and Philly. If you can handle the hills, also in San Francisco. LA isn’t so great, to me, because of its car culture.
“Best I can tell, Chicago is a great retirement city if you’re not retired? Or is Chicago a great pre-retirement city?”
Silent Generation retired 20+ years ago. Many were retired in Chicago. Who can blame them? Lots had second homes in Florida, Arizona, Colorado too. Many were snowbirds. Older Baby Boomers have been retired 10 years too.
Many of them decided after living through COVID that they were done with being snowbirds. They moved to their second homes full time. They’re selling in Chicago and the next group of retirees will move in.
Baby Boomers selling their homes in the suburbs to move to the city WAS the trend before Covid JohnnyU. Nothing new about it. But now it will be GenX who decides to retire in big urban areas.
“Nothing new about it. But now it will be GenX who decides to retire in big urban areas.”
Again, its a great retirement city for folks that are at least 5-10 years away from retirement?
Other than it being post noon, what are you basing this on?
Besides looking into the bottom of your wine glass, where have you seen any major trends/designs to support a flood of GenX staying/heading to Chicago?
As a GenX’er, most of the folks I know (and from what I’ve read) are looking at low(er) COL metros, and Chicago aint on the radar. Yeah, some will stay and if they have kids they may buy a small condo, but for most its not going to be their primary residence and they’re smart enough to realize that there’s a pretty good chance that their kids may move
“Huh?”
See:
“I’m glad for you Gary. I like the mid-atlantic states[.]”
Gary moved to NC, so it reads like a non-sequitur.
“Gary moved to NC, so it reads like a non-sequitur.”
Guessing you are sober, this would make a lot more sense if you were hammered
No one can ever say that Sabrina’s strongly held opinions arent malleable
“But now it will be GenX who decides to retire in big urban areas.”
I do see the upsides for retiring in a a mid to large city. Lots of places to live with elevators, access to good health care, lots to do, parks to stroll, fun things to do with grandkids if they’re visting from somewhere that’s not a mid to large city. But if it’s a city with cold winters, that’s obviously an issue if the retiree can’t go somewhere else for a few months. And then there’s the RE taxes. It’s one thing to continue paying high taxes after one’s kids are out of the public K-12 system for, say, a decade or so, but to do so for several decades?
“But if it’s a city with cold winters, that’s obviously an issue if the retiree can’t go somewhere else for a few months.”
Why?
Plenty of people living in Aspen, Boulder, Denver in retirement. Plenty in Santa Fe. All get snow. There are people who like winter. Lol.
And, again, if you’re living in a high rise, you don’t have to do anything in the snow/cold. The sidewalks are all shoveled for you. If you live downtown, all of the sidewalks are cleared very quickly. However, the ice sidewalks are more treacherous. A few years ago there was an article about how people loved to live in NYC in retirement until they got into their late 80s and 90s when the sidewalks got more scary for them in the winter. The couple in the article left for Arizona because they were scared they would break a hip in the winter.
“And then there’s the RE taxes. It’s one thing to continue paying high taxes after one’s kids are out of the public K-12 system for, say, a decade or so, but to do so for several decades?”
There’s the senior exemption in Chicago anonny. I don’t know if places like Texas, which has some of the highest property taxes in the nation, also has it.
You should always research the tax implications for any state as some tax social security, and others do not, for example.
“Gary moved to NC, so it reads like a non-sequitur.”
The poster said he lived in the DC area and then discussed which mid-atlantic state he WOULD live in. That’s what you were responding to- not my comment.
I hope the original poster posts again and isn’t scared off by the bullying on this site. I will remove bullying comments but that hasn’t stopped many of you.
“Again, its a great retirement city for folks that are at least 5-10 years away from retirement?”
There literally are people on this very website who talk about looking for retirement condos IN the city of Chicago.
LMFAO.
Big cities are the bomb in retirement.
“Plenty of people living in Aspen, Boulder, Denver in retirement. Plenty in Santa Fe. All get snow. There are people who like winter. Lol.”
Boulder/Denver, and even more so Santa Fe, do not have winters like Chicago or the northeast. Yes it snows in Boulder, more than in Chicago, but it’s gone in a day. The “300+ days of sunshine” is a real thing. That said, if I were 80 and could, I wouldn’t be here for Dec-Jan. People in retirement in Aspen aren’t exactly on the verge of eating catfood, or to put it another way, can be almost anywhere in the world whenever they want.
“There are people who like winter. Lol”
I meant to also add that, (1) I left Buffalo, a place known for its winters, to move to a place that for a long time called itself the “Icebox of the Nation” (Fraser, CO) and (2) I’ve had a snowflake on my shoulder for 25 years. I am not anti-winter. But when I’m old, if I can swing it, the only time I want to be experiencing “winter” would be in connection with some sort of recreational activity on the snow, and not as a part of regular, day to day life.
“There literally are people on this very website who talk about looking for retirement condos IN the city of Chicago.”
A self selecting small sample. Congrats
So what you’re saying is you made it up and dont have anything to back it up. Shocking
“Big cities are the bomb in retirement.”
Some can be for sure, unfortunately for your shilling Chicago isnt a top destination. Second home to visit K/GK/F&F, sure. Though I dont think think the population of this group is that large
If someone likes winter, Chicago is an absolutely terrible choice.
“If someone likes winter, Chicago is an absolutely terrible choice.”
Guess it depends what one likes about winter.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-tyson-foods-to-relocate-chicago-employees-20221005-b2slld5ztzfinfcbtcxkr5opgy-story.html
I eagerly await Sabrina letting us know how this is a good thing
Its almost like F500 companies know something she doesnt…
“Guess it depends what one likes about winter.”
Other than Bears, Hawks and/or Bulls, slush and constantly grey skies?
Cold weather, long nights, bare trees.
It’s a-ok with me to like unusual stuff, and “liking winter” doesn’t have to mean feet of snow or skiing or whatever of the many, many things that Chicago sucks for as “winter”. That was all.
“It’s a-ok with me to like unusual stuff, and “liking winter” doesn’t have to mean feet of snow or skiing or whatever of the many, many things that Chicago sucks for as “winter”. That was all.”
Yeah was more pointing to Sabina’s comment of people flocking to live in Chicago because of winter. Other than some really off the wall reason which would cover 0.0000127% of the population, there are dozens of better locations for the normal wintery activities one (Assuming sanity and sobriety) would choose
Its why I’m looking to get out of the Greater Ft Wayne Metro and have my sights set on Minot or Grand Forks
Winter in Chicago sucks. I am from the south. Every year around Feb or early March, I tell myself I can’t take it anymore and it is time to move. Then like clockwork, you will get an errant 40 or 50 degree day and it feels amazing…. then you realize it is almost over.
I hate how Spring and Fall here are super short. Literally feels like only two seasons here. Summer and Winter imho.
I’d much prefer to be in the southeast for the weather, but Chicago is such an amazing city otherwise.
Just posted my September update: https://lucidrealty.com/chicago-real-estate-market-update-september-sees-another-huge-drop-in-home-sales/
No surprise that sales are down 22.3% from last year (24.4% according to IAR in two weeks). Market times are still looking pretty good and that’s what buyers and sellers care about. Low inventory is still helping. Sales likely to be low for some time.
On a separate note…liking my new digs so far. Free eggs from the people behind me who have a chicken coop and free Mariachi music 9 – 5 from the construction site next to me.
“my sights set on Minot or Grand Forks”
So you’re a “30 mph wind blowing snow uninterrupted down from Nunavut and crating 5′ drifts” winter enjoyer.
Like I said, all about what sort of “winter” one appreciates.
“El Paso, which sits across the border from Juarez, Mexico, has bused roughly 7,000 migrants to New York City since late August and sent more than 1,800 to Chicago,”
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/democrat-led-texas-city-steps-up-migrant-busing-new-york-outpacing-republican-2022-10-06/
I’m glad the SunTimes is now free but afaik neither it nor the Trib have reported that, since NYC now claims no vacancies, Chicago’s inflow will probably increase. I don’t envision any problems as long as Biden keeps sending us $1.9 billion every three years.
Gary, has anybody called you a carpetbagger yet?
“I hate how Spring and Fall here are super short. Literally feels like only two seasons here.”
Fall is “short”?
How do you figure? It lasts as long as everywhere else, although it starts a bit later than Minnesota, Vermont etc which have their leaves start changing in early September.
My problem with spring isn’t that it’s too short, it’s that it’s too long. I’ve worn winter coats to Cub games in May. That’s not right.
But some of us love the seasons. Some people move to Florida and have to leave because they miss the seasons too much.
“Yeah was more pointing to Sabina’s comment of people flocking to live in Chicago because of winter.”
Lots of people like winter. Many who don’t live in Chicago assume that Chicago gets like 10 feet of snow every year. It doesn’t. If it did, maybe more people would like it. Boston actually gets more snow every year, on average, than Chicago. Those years where we barely get our average stink. I’d like more snow.
I’ve tried to go snowshoeing at Polar Fest several years in a row but they never had it because there was no snow. In January. Have to have at least 3 inches to snowshoe. It’s a drag.
Chicago has the cold though. And that’s worse than the snow.
If people hated snow, no one would be living in Aspen or Telluride year round.
“Guess it depends what one likes about winter.”
Snow shoeing. Snow biking. Ice skating. Hot chocolate. Roaring fire. First snow. Snow storms.
The beauty.
“I eagerly await Sabrina letting us know how this is a good thing
Its almost like F500 companies know something she doesnt…”
No one posts a damn thing on this blog when the HQs are COMING to Chicago. Yawn.
This is a loss. I wonder how many of those will actually move to Arkansas? Chicago is the American headquarters for the food industry. It would have to be detrimental for your career to move to Arkansas, even though Tyson is there. If it doesn’t work out, where do you work? At least you have other options in Chicago. A lot of other options.
Hillshire Farms was spun off of Sara Lee, hence the Downers Grove innovation lab. I get it why Tyson wants to consolidate everyone into one building in Arkansas. Saves costs and you don’t have people commuting between the offices.
But, again, I wonder how many will move there? Maybe the Millennials will want to because they can get affordable housing? I don’t know. We’ll see.
“But when I’m old, if I can swing it, the only time I want to be experiencing “winter” would be in connection with some sort of recreational activity on the snow, and not as a part of regular, day to day life.”
On the old Today Show, Willard Scott used to say happy 100th birthday to people across the nation. Almost without exception, they were mostly in the Midwest and New England. All mostly living in the cold states. Can’t say there was a correlation, but it was certainly odd. It became such a “thing” that I used to watch it to see how many cold states they were from every time he did it.
My grandmother shoveled her sidewalk until she was 94. We did get someone to do it for her, but she kept doing it if it was under 3 inches. She never did the driveway though. ha ha.
“Boulder/Denver, and even more so Santa Fe, do not have winters like Chicago or the northeast. Yes it snows in Boulder, more than in Chicago, but it’s gone in a day.”
No reason to retire, or live your regular life, in any of those cities, apparently. Winter sucks that bad. Lol.
To each their own. More for the rest of us.
“No surprise that sales are down 22.3% from last year (24.4% according to IAR in two weeks). Market times are still looking pretty good and that’s what buyers and sellers care about. Low inventory is still helping. Sales likely to be low for some time.”
Thanks Gary. Inventory remains low. Prices are going to remain stable as long as people have jobs. If layoffs pick up, however, that’s where you will see the real change in Chicago.
Real estate market is dead. It’s dead until the spring buying season. But it may be dead then too if mortgage rates remain above 7%.
“Other than some really off the wall reason which would cover 0.0000127% of the population, there are dozens of better locations for the normal wintery activities one (Assuming sanity and sobriety) would choose”
Yep. If you want one of the big cities in retirement AND winter, you can go to Boston, NYC or Philly. I wouldn’t really include DC because it doesn’t get much snow there. But some may like it because you still have some winter.
All of those cities, and Chicago, would be fantastic places to live in retirement. Live in a bigger building and never have to shovel. Access to world’s best museums and cultural amenities. Can go to the best restaurants. All the artsy movie theaters and sports teams. No reason to drive. World class hospitals.
“Gary, has anybody called you a carpetbagger yet?”
We just went through the biggest migration since WWII. Everyone is a carpetbagger right now.
And at least Gary isn’t from California. The Californians have taken over Raleigh.
By the way, how low is inventory?
There are just 388 properties on the market in Lakeview (this are those that aren’t under contract or pending.)
Incredibly low.
“Lots of people like winter. Many who don’t live in Chicago assume that Chicago gets like 10 feet of snow every year. It doesn’t. If it did, maybe more people would like it. Boston actually gets more snow every year, on average, than Chicago. Those years where we barely get our average stink. I’d like more snow.
I’ve tried to go snowshoeing at Polar Fest several years in a row but they never had it because there was no snow. In January. Have to have at least 3 inches to snowshoe. It’s a drag.
Chicago has the cold though. And that’s worse than the snow.
If people hated snow, no one would be living in Aspen or Telluride year round.”
This word salad is nice and all but doesnt address the “flocking to Chicago” because of the winters
“No one posts a damn thing on this blog when the HQs are COMING to Chicago. Yawn.”
You constantly crow about all of the HQ in Chicago. Losing
When was the last time a F500 came to Chicago?
“This is a loss. I wonder how many of those will actually move to Arkansas? Chicago is the American headquarters for the food industry. It would have to be detrimental for your career to move to Arkansas, even though Tyson is there. If it doesn’t work out, where do you work? At least you have other options in Chicago. A lot of other options.”
Keep telling yourself that
Why would Tyson & ADM leave the “American HQ of the food industry”?
“When was the last time a F500 came to Chicago?”
Just a couple of months ago.
https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/kellogg-to-split-into-3-companies-move-hq-to-chicago/2862017/
“This word salad is nice and all but doesnt address the “flocking to Chicago” because of the winters”
Who ever said this?
I said many people like winter. They like the seasons. And they want to retire in a big city. Many, many people do. Chicago is a great retirement city.
What I often hear from older people is that they never want to shovel snow again. Move to a downtown Chicago high rise and your dream will come true.
“Why would Tyson & ADM leave the “American HQ of the food industry”?”
They aren’t. ADM is still headquartered here. Tyson has always been HQ’d in Arkansas. I get why they want to consolidate all of the offices into one. But given the talent in the Chicago area in the food industry, I feel like it will be a mistake. I’ll be interested in hearing how many of those employees will move to Arkansas. But maybe this is a way for Tyson to cull that segment without actually doing layoffs.
“It would have to be detrimental for your career to move to Arkansas, even though Tyson is there. If it doesn’t work out, where do you work?”
WalMart
“No one posts a damn thing on this blog when the HQs are COMING to Chicago. Yawn.”
One underreported item is how Chicago and Illinois is missing out on all the new EV investment. Not surprisingly but it looks like the ones coming to the midwest are setting up shop in northwest Indiana, Michigan, and ohio.
” But given the talent in the Chicago area in the food industry, I feel like it will be a mistake. I’ll be interested in hearing how many of those employees will move to Arkansas. But maybe this is a way for Tyson to cull that segment without actually doing layoffs.”
I would think Tyson and ADM are looking for more agricultural and commodity talent than “food” talent. The “food talent” likely means marketing more than supply chain, risk management for commodity prices, agricultural, and manufacturing.
Not sure there’s much talent disparity between Chicago and Arkansas on that one. Most of the people in Chicago were probably in the C Suite, marketing and finance and have never been on a farm or a manufacturing plant before. Seems important given how the company makes money.
“Most of the people in Chicago were probably in the C Suite, marketing and finance”
It’s unsurprising that those sorts got merged into the HQ staff–it’s more interesting that they’re also closing down the Hillshire product development location in Downers Grove.
Of course, they are also consolidating 500 jobs out of South Dakota (in the Sioux City, IA metro, population 150,000, civilian labor force of ~93,000–or less than 50% of the jobs *added* in Chicago metro bt Aug-21 and Aug-22), so this isn’t about Chicago as Chicago–it’s about Tyson’s corporate culture.
Yes DC is so great. So many retirees move there for the quality of life and great “Access to world’s best museums and cultural amenities.”
Sometimes you just have to laugh at the chatbot named Sabrina who keeps pulling projections out of its arse that have no connection to reality. Much like her with DC.
Retirees do not move to crowded, high tax, high crime, high cost of living places like DC. People that earn a living in the beltway get the heck out of there the first chance they are able to. Same for NY, Boston and the other legacy cities the chatbot is promoting as having great “museums and cultural amenities”.
How many times do you really think the chatbot here actually goes to “museums & cultural amenities”? And what is the ratio of the chatbot repeating that line vs actually going to these things?
“People that earn a living in the beltway get the heck out of there the first chance they are able to. Same for NY, Boston and the other legacy cities the chatbot is promoting as having great “museums and cultural amenities”.”
Nope. This would be wrong. We already know that there are thousands of Silent Generation and Baby Boomers living in downtown neighborhoods in Chicago right now. Lol. And pre-pandemic many more Baby Boomers were leaving the suburbs and moving to a city home.
GenX will be next. They raised their kids in the city but will likely leave the single family home behind and move into the high rise in Fulton Market so they don’t have to shovel. Retirees want less maintenance. You get that with the high rise.
As I’ve already said, I have a membership to one of the museums and I’m not even retired. Chicago has some of the best museums in the world. I try and support my favorites. It’s also easy to join a bunch of other groups and activities. Check out Eventbrite for what is going on and groups you can join.
Why is it so easy to mock going to museums or getting a membership? It’s no different than having Cubs season tickets. It’s something that some people love to do. Chicago has a lot of things to keep retirees busy.
Do people honestly think that the millions of people living in America’s greatest cities are going to up and move to the swamps of Florida when they turn 65? Really?
Also, I think it’s hilarious that Bob still thinks I’m some sort of bot living in India and posting all the time on this site.
Lol.
You can’t make this stuff up.
“One underreported item is how Chicago and Illinois is missing out on all the new EV investment.”
Rivian opened up its big factory in downstate Illinois. Thousands of jobs. Has transformed that town already as real estate prices have jumped thanks to all the highly paid positions.
Also, Illinois is pretty diverse in industries and knows its strength. It is one of the largest markets for cannabis, including corporate offices and VC funding. We won’t be able to win it all but if we can get a lot of the cannabis market for the time when the Feds legalize it, we’ll be in the driver’s seat in that billion dollar industry.
“WalMart”
If you’re a food scientist, or even in food marketing, you’re going to go to Walmart? Hell no. You’re going to go to Kraft, Brach’s, Wrigley, Mars, Quaker Oats, ConAgra, Kellogg.
Chicago is the place to be if you’re in that industry. Who wants to move to a city, or state, where you can never leave your job? This was always the problem with New Orleans. It’s so small that if you lost your job, you couldn’t get another one. Someone who lived there, and who moved to Houston, told me that she applied for a marketing position in her industry and there were hundreds of resumes for subpar salary.
Again, I will say, I’ll be interested to know how many actually move to Arkansas. Could be a lot of “early retirements.”
“Rivian opened up its big factory in downstate Illinois. Thousands of jobs. Has transformed that town already as real estate prices have jumped thanks to all the highly paid positions.”
They purchased that plant in 2017. They announced their battery plant is going to Georgia. Yes, Rivian is a win but the State needs more than one entity in the supply chain of EV’s importantly it needs a battery manufacturer to come to the state. Rivian has 5 – 6K employees. It’s a good start but much more is needed to just offset future job losses at car dealerships, car parts suppliers, and mechanics that will occur with the transition.
Hopefully, Rivian is able to make it. It’s going to be hard to raise money in the current environment and having to recall every vehicle earlier this week because the steering wheel may give out is not good PR.
“Do people honestly think that the millions of people living in America’s greatest cities are going to up and move to the swamps of Florida when they turn 65? Really?”
See census report and congressional redistricting. Florida and Texas added seats while NY, IL, and CA lost seats. The narrative of people not wanting to move to a swamp (or retire to one) and live in a “superstar city” doesn’t seem to hold.
“It is one of the largest markets for cannabis, including corporate offices and VC funding”
And the FEDS are investigating them for pay-to-play. Lets, also see what happens when some of the corporates merge whenever it becomes legal.
“we can get a lot of the cannabis market for the time when the Feds legalize it, we’ll be in the driver’s seat in that billion dollar industry.”
When are they going to legalize it? It’s not happening under Biden and won’t happen under a republican. So you are looking at 10+ years. There’s also a long way to go to legalization. Will it simply be decriminalized for the time being without banking protections? Will it simply be moved from schedule 1 to schedule 2?
We are facing potential nuclear war, another war in Taiwan, a global energy crisis, significant inflation, transitioning to EV’s, abortion, immigration, and potential recession. Legalizing weed seems to be down on the list of priorities these days…
““Do people honestly think that the millions of people living in America’s greatest cities are going to up and move to the swamps of Florida when they turn 65? Really?””
So now the olds arent going to move to Florida?
This is confusing
“GenX will be next. They raised their kids in the city but will likely leave the single family home behind and move into the high rise in Fulton Market so they don’t have to shovel. Retirees want less maintenance. You get that with the high rise.”
This is made up fantasy. Is there some that will do this, yes. Is it what a substantial portion of GenX will do, F no
“If you’re a food scientist, or even in food marketing, you’re going to go to Walmart?”
Indeed shows 29 jobs for food scientist in/around Fayetteville, Arkansas…
WalMart’s corporate hiring website shows 99 jobs for advertising sales (including food) and Product Managers.
I think the market cap of Walmart at $360Bn+ is higher than the combined market caps of Kraft, Brach’s, Wrigley, Mars, Quaker Oats, ConAgra, Kellogg.
Also, if you are a food scientist or marketer why would you want to work for an established brand name? The only innovation done there is M&A of startups and integrating into your line-up. You would rather work at TreeHouse Foods creating and marketing off-label products especially in a time of inflation or designing and marketing WalMart’s off label products given your customer base is extremely price sensitive.
Every time I go to Marianos over the past 6 months I’m amazed at how much Kroger has ramped up investments into off label products. I love it. I wont’ buy name brand anything since its double the price and the taste is the same or comparable.
“Brach’s”
Someone is thinking of the 90s. Or the 70s.
“Someone is thinking of the 90s. Or the 70s.”
It’s still here and people are still eating the candy corn anon(tfo). I’m pretty sure there are plenty of Chicagoans working on Brach’s lines. Are you saying Wrigley doesn’t exist just because Mars bought them out?
Ferrara, by the way, has its HQ in the Old Post Office.
So, yeah, if I’m at Hillshire I may want access to other jobs in the food industry and that’s why Chicago is a great place to work for those in that industry. Plenty of opportunities here for new jobs, advancement, higher compensation, bonuses etc. But you go to a state which doesn’t have much of that industry, and it can be tough.
And yeah, there’s WFH, but nothing replaces networking.
“Indeed shows 29 jobs for food scientist in/around Fayetteville, Arkansas…”
Terrible. Again, I would be surprised if many from Hillshire want to move. But Tyson may know this and want to cull the herd and force many into early retirement anyway.
Chicago is the epicenter for food jobs in the United States. It’s kind of like those poor souls who left NYC and moved to Nashville to work in finance when that investment firm moved there. Yikes. Talent wants to be around other talent, even with working from home. And they want to be in a big market for their industry.
“So now the olds arent going to move to Florida?”
The 85 year olds are JohnnyU. Plenty of them have decided to go permanently now. Younger Baby Boomers, not so much. Used to be people had two homes but with prices soaring in Florida and Arizona, doubtful many can afford it.
I do wonder what will happen with future retirees in those states. Many in the Midwest and Northeast can’t afford to move to the sunbelt anymore. Lol.
“Is it what a substantial portion of GenX will do, F no”
How many live in big cities? If you live in Schaumburg, do you care if you retire to an Orlando suburb? No.
“When are they going to legalize it? It’s not happening under Biden and won’t happen under a republican.”
Sure it will. It’s vital for possible treatments for a lot of diseases.
Congress may soon pass the first phase which is the banking act. That will go a long way to stabilizing the industry. But need to decriminalize it so that the university research centers and biotechs can do their thing.
“The narrative of people not wanting to move to a swamp (or retire to one) and live in a “superstar city” doesn’t seem to hold.”
I never said this.
I said those living in the CITIES. I’m sure many in the suburbs and small towns and rural areas will move to the suburbs, small towns and rural areas of the Southeast to escape the snow and cold. I have many relatives who have already done this. Doesn’t everyone in Chicagoland? There’s a reason there’s a Lou Malnati’s in Phoenix, right?
“It’s a good start but much more is needed to just offset future job losses at car dealerships, car parts suppliers, and mechanics that will occur with the transition.”
Because EVs won’t need repairs? Come on. The batteries only last a few years. Going to be a big market in putting in the new batteries. At the dealerships.
Every state will have a build out in the infrastructure. Illinois isn’t going to be any different than anywhere else.
Stick with what you can do. Illinois is best in the nation in agriculture. Cannabis industry makes more sense.
“plenty of Chicagoans working on Brach’s lines”
You go to the Brach’s website and click on careers, and it’s Ferrara Candy Company.
Brach’s is a bygone–not as a brand, of course.
Mostly because of the corrupt bargain between corn state and sugar state senators.
Yep. Go to Wrigley and you will be taken to Mars.
And?
LMFAO.
By the way Hillshire not there anymore as a stand-alone either. It’s Tysons now. Does that matter for the jobs? Nope.
“But need to decriminalize it so that the university research centers and biotechs can do their thing.”
Decriminalizing and legalizing are not the same. It’s not getting legalized anytime soon.
“There’s a reason there’s a Lou Malnati’s in Phoenix, right?”
For the sake of those in Phoenix, I sure hope it’s half as good as it is in Chicago (though the last couple times I’ve had it from the GC location it had really declined), because not every effort at transplanting Chicago foods into other places works. Chicagoans started Oreganos in AZ, and it’s wildly popular there. They tried expanding into CO a few years back, and the one in Boulder is already (and justly) closed. Unfortunately only Giordano’s has ventured into CO.
“If you’re a food scientist, or even in food marketing, you’re going to go to Walmart? Hell no. You’re going to go to Kraft, Brach’s, Wrigley, Mars, Quaker Oats, ConAgra, Kellogg.
Chicago is the place to be if you’re in that industry. Who wants to move to a city, or state, where you can never leave your job? This was always the problem with New Orleans. It’s so small that if you lost your job, you couldn’t get another one. Someone who lived there, and who moved to Houston, told me that she applied for a marketing position in her industry and there were hundreds of resumes for subpar salary.”
While WM isnt a top choice, LOL at the ones you listed. Those are some real cutting edge companies
At least list Abbott
“I never said this.”
LOL OK Karen
“Because EVs won’t need repairs? Come on. The batteries only last a few years.”
EV’s have half the parts than an internal combustion engine vehicle. Less parts means less auto-part suppliers, less mechanics, etc.
Batteries are the most expensive part of an EV and the technology needs to significantly improve for mass adoption. 90%+ of the population is not going to purchase a used EV for $30K – $50K if the battery needs to be replaced in a year or two at an additional $15K – $20K since they won’t be able to afford one. That same 90% can’t afford a new EV since it costs $70K+
“Going to be a big market in putting in the new batteries. At the dealerships”
Dealerships are going away. Tesla, Rivian, and the new EV car companies sell direct-to-consumer and send a tech out to your home to fix/diagnose an issue. With the supply chain issues over the past couple of years Ford, GM, etc. are starting to do the same as well. Go online, customize an order, submit a downpayment, and they will call you in a couple of years when the vehicle is ready to be delivered from the manufacturer.
The market to install a battery will obviously grow but will also shrink the market to repair/replace a muffler, clutch, belts, cylinders, head gaskets, catalytic converter, etc. and maintenance for oil changes, filters, lubricants. No need for emissions testing centers every few years.
“Every state will have a build out in the infrastructure. Illinois isn’t going to be any different than anywhere else.”
And it will be completely controlled by a single regulated utility in your service area i.e. ComEd. That’s worked out great….. I’m not a big oil cheerleader but I’d rather have multiple options to choose from when i’m refilling/recharging than one entity whose rates are set by the State and is pretty corrupt.
“the market to repair/replace … catalytic converter”
That alone would reduce the perception of crime in the city by about 10%.
“Dealerships are going away.”
Ba ha ha. You guys on this blog are so funny.
“While WM isnt a top choice, LOL at the ones you listed. Those are some real cutting edge companies”
We are talking about the food industry. Food. And Abbott isn’t even in Chicago.
But thanks for the reminder that the Chicagoland area has a LOT of Fortune 500 companies and crushes it in terms of jobs and wealth.
Let’s talk about Ingredion, CF Industries and the like as well. All in the suburbs and all crushing it.
Feel free to move to Arkansas but your career will likely suffer. There’s a reason we’re building 70 story towers and they are not.
“For the sake of those in Phoenix, I sure hope it’s half as good as it is in Chicago (though the last couple times I’ve had it from the GC location it had really declined)”
Wow. I love the thin with the buttercrust. Nothing like that crust. I can’t comment on the deep dish as I never order that.
“Ba ha ha. You guys on this blog are so funny.”
Per the Kelly Blue Book report last September titled “The Future of Car Shopping: Fewer Dealerships, More Consolidation”
“Those laws that prevent an automaker from operating its own dealerships have also begun to change.
The catalyst for that has been, mostly, Tesla. In the handful of states that didn’t require third-party sales, the company operated its own stores and sold cars directly to consumers.”
“Volvo, earlier this year, moved to sell its electric vehicles exclusively online, starting with its new C40 Recharge SUV. Buyers still go through dealers to finalize the sale, arrange delivery, and schedule service.”
“with car sales moving online, dealerships are starting to consolidate.”
“Meanwhile, some major automakers have taken a lesson from the current low-inventory situation: fewer cars means higher sales prices. Last week, the chief financial officers of both BMW and Mercedes-parent Daimler told reporters their companies intended to keep inventories low indefinitely to keep prices high.
General Motors CEO Mary Barra said in May that America’s largest automaker will “never go back to the level of inventories that we held pre-pandemic because we’ve learned we can be much more efficient.””
https://www.kbb.com/car-news/the-future-of-car-shopping-fewer-dealerships-national-chains/
“Ba ha ha. You guys on this blog are so funny.”
GM launched a direct-to-consumer model in China earlier this year and an online used car buying platform (CarBravo) to take on Carvana.
We do our Banking online and have less branches; we have less department and retail stores because we do our shopping online. Why would millennials, Gen-Z and future generations go from dealership to dealership instead of purchasing direct to consumer online?
“GM launched a direct-to-consumer model in China earlier this year and an online used car buying platform (CarBravo) to take on Carvana.”
They ALL have direct to consumer. Carvana is losing millions and millions of dollars and is a failure. You are assuming NO ONE will ever go to a dealership to drive a car and buy it ever again? Or that they won’t need repairs?
Absurd.
You’re one of those who thinks there won’t be any stores at all but brick and mortar is still 80% of all retail.
I really suggest you listen in on the conference calls of the auto retailers. They’re innovating, for sure, but their dealerships aren’t going anywhere.
Also, everyone on this blog is acting like Chicago housing prices have crashed when they’re not even down (yet).
I don’t get it.
Even nationally, it will take years to fall. This blog actually proves how long it takes as there were real estate agents on here in 2008 telling us that Lincoln Park would “hold up” and wouldn’t “decline.” They were wrong. It finally did, just took a bit longer than some of the other neighborhoods.
Reminder: Chicago prices didn’t bottom until 2012. It took 4 years. And that’s with massive numbers of foreclosures on the market.
“we have less department and retail stores because we do our shopping online”
5 straight quarters of online retail sales growth trailing overall retail sales growth. It’s a big part of it, but we’d have fewer stores even with 1998 level online shopping.
We have fewer stores because (among other things) (1) consolidation in department stores, and death of outmoded retailers, that’s been ongoing for 30 years, and (2) retail was *radically* overbuilt before covid–50% more SF per capita than Canada, double Australia, 5x more than most other rich countries.
“Also, everyone on this blog is acting like Chicago housing prices have crashed when they’re not even down (yet).”
By what metric?
“By what metric?”
hyperbole