Market Conditions: Case Shiller Confirms Double Dip
The Case Shiller index for March was just released.
The 20 city index fell 3.6% year over year. It was the lowest reading since March 2003.
Here’s some quick statistics for Chicago:
- Chicago fell 2.4% month over month
- It was also down 7.6% year over year
We can take solace that Chicago was NOT the worst in the index in March. Minneapolis was down 3.7% month to month and 10% year over year.
Yikes.
David Blitzer, the chairman of the committee, was just on CNBC saying that 2011 is already lost and that they are “keeping fingers crossed for 2012.”
I don’t know why they keep saying it’s a double dip. For Chicago it’s actually a triple dip at this point. See first graph here: http://ChicagoHousingStats.com
Condo prices are falling much faster than SFH prices in the area. They were down 4.5% in March and are back to March 2000 levels.
How can it not be falling when you look at what is happening in even the NW side neighborhoods (not to mention the south side)?
It’s a total bloodbath in areas like Portage Park, Monteclare, Jefferson Park etc.
As we’ve seen the higher price point North side neighborhoods like Edgebrook are also falling sharply now. Down 20% year over year in some cases. Just brutal.
Still liking ’13 or ’14 for bottom with another 10-20% loss in the meantime.
This is downright ugly to keep seeing these numbers drop. Is April and May supposed to be remarkably better, adjusted for the usual annualization factors?
This is not ugly. This is great news. Future generations will have better and less expensive housing choices than anytime in the last 10 years.
I predict another 15% drop, putting prices at at the high 80’s or early 90’s CS.
Edgebrook: too many boomers trying to sell their outdated and small pre-war tudors at $250 psf to the next generation of owners who make less money, have more debt and are less secure in their employment than anytime since those homes were built. So many reasonably sized homes for sale at absurd prices, so few buyers who want to pay $499 for a house with only one garage and one point 5 baths. Same goes for Wildwood.
Good luck with that!
“I don’t know why they keep saying it’s a double dip. For Chicago it’s actually a triple dip at this point.”
The Chicago housing market is so seasonal I think it’s better to look at year/year data to distill out some of the seasonal fluctuations. Sure we’ve had a bad winter/spring and that might still impact things, but IMO a better methodology than incorporating seasonal trends.
For Chicagoland condos not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted condo prices have declined for the past 42 observations, starting in October 2007. That first reading was statistically insignificant, so we can call that 41 months of yearly price declines. There is no apparent pattern to the magnitude of price declines although there do appear to be trends uncorrelated with seasons.
For Chicagoland single family homes not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted SFH prices have declined for the past 47 observations. The first reading on the seasonally adjusted data (May 2007) was statistically insignificant as well as June 2010 for both data sets, leading to meaningful year over year price declines for 45 out of the last 47 observations on the seasonally adjusted data and 46 out of the last 47 observations on the non-seasonally adjusted data.
The SFH indices have shown a much cleaner decline of around 7.4-7.6% year/year declines for the past five observations. This is likely the market’s natural rate of decline now that the tax credit incentives have been removed.
We haven’t even got to year/year comparisons looking at data after the tax credit expired. That may very well be ugly.
“I predict another 15% drop, putting prices at at the high 80’s or early 90’s CS.”
Not even close.
Index 15%-Drop Month-Year
Composite-10, 128.91, April-2002
Composite-20, 117.43, June-2001
Chicago, 93.99, April-1999
Edgebrook/Saugnash homeowners always had a superiority complex, even amongst themselves – “real Saugnash” vs. Saugnash Park, Wildwood vs. “little house” Edgebrook georgians, “North of Peterson” Saugnash vs. “South of Peterson” Saugnash, etc. And yet for police, Saugnash residents inevitably would call Lincolnwood’s police, at least for those residents immediately surrounding Queen of All Saints – otherwise known as “Queen of All Cadillacs” or “Our Lady of Fur Coats”, a parish run for many years by a narcisstic monsignor. I digressed, sorry for the Saugnash rant. I agree with Homedelete though, too many outmoded 40s and 50s-era houses overpriced because of their exclusive location in a far northwest neighborhood that was long underserved by retail and by City of Chicago services. So now it has an overpriced Whole Foods, a newish library, and liquor licenses for Devon restaurants – still not a vibrant neighborhood retail center.
I’m seeing dramatic drops in Oak Park/River Forest too.
no double or triple dip… Been 1 downmove with the teeniest noise once or twice where some idiots tried insisting said noise was an uptick…. Bob laid it out rather cleanly…
You people should all just move to Uptown before its too late!
“Bob laid it out rather cleanly…”
Listening to the CBS Marketwatch and the Yahoo Finance mavens, we were all _shocked_ on here when the V-shaped recovery for housing never materialized after the June 2010 data point.
😀
Now if Obama gets re-elected and they send the Dems back to control the house (casual/presidential only election voters tend to vote the party ticket), congress might do something really stupid like another tax credit, preventing the market from finding a bottom for awhile longer. It’s all fun & games until the debt crisis hits.
Maybe something like this Nevada proposed law would help in Illinois:
“Bill Would Let Appraisers ‘Round Up’ Home Values”
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42849615/ns/business-personal_finance/t/bill-would-let-appraisers-round-home-values/
Howabout instead of forcing appraisers to ignore distressed sales instead we go a step further and prohibit them from considering any comp that shows any sort of decline? 😀
It’s always funny when politicians try to legislate economic realities. Unless you have to live through it of course (or so eastern-bloc & soviet people have told me).
The one encouraging sign (for sellers)is that inventories have dropped significantly in the last couple of months. I think many sellers are refusing to sell at these levels if they don’t have to.
Leroy,
Illinois has it’s own dumb laws. They were trying to force appraisers to ignore short sales and foreclosures in their appraisals.
All this index business is a bunch of crap. A bunch of nerds with too much time on their hands who don’t even understand what their numbers are telling them. Crap, I tell you.
Get into your favorite meditation pose.
“Real estate is local. Real estate is local. Real estate is local. Real estate is local.”
Keep chanting until your mind is clear and your worries melt away…
Now that you are ready, I’ve got an unbelievable condo to sell you in the Gold Coast. An area immune to all of this negative price fluctuation business. If you don’t buy now you might never afford a place like this again. Hurry. DON’T THINK! Pull the trigger. You hesitate, you lose.
The Illinois legislation was introduced by Lashawn Ford on the south side.
Architect: now that you’ve had your 60646 rant, how do you REALLY feel about wildwood?
“…an overpriced Whole Foods…”
Are the prices higher there than at other Whole Foods?
“The Illinois legislation was introduced by Lashawn Ford on the south side.”
yeah some slum lord mortgage broker… from what I remember he got laughed out of Springfield
I don’t know if there ever was “green shoots” in the housing industry as to me it just looks like a straight shot downward…, but I do know that over the next few years if you can find a good unicorn property, now is for sure the time to buy it.
Don’t settle though, as there is an abundance of total crap properties out there being sold as pigs with lipstick by sheisters looking to get out
“It’s all fun & games until the debt crisis hits.”
I agree. I’m still waiting to see how this part of the equation works out.
why is it every time i ever heard, in a down market, ‘sellers are refusing to sell at these levels’, prices always continue to fall.
Homedelete: I grew up in Saugnash/Edgebrook/Wildwood zone and still spend fair amount of time there. I like area’s shady streets and often architecturally interesting housing stock, and appreciate the decent public schools and Metra station access, but recognize its past and current shortcomings. Happy Foods is a disappointment, and neighborhood’s one retail strip is still uneven and under-tenanted though some restaurants have finally arrived. Used to be a mostly Catholic enclave of mostly conformist conservatives with a “keeping up with the Jones” mode, and as a teenager, I was anxious to leave.
Never fear, QE3 is almost here!
“While the size of the portfolio expanded three fold (and the quality of its assets diminished), the Fed’s equity ratio plunged from 6% to just 2%. Prior to the bursting of the credit bubble, the public was shocked to learn that our biggest investment banks were levered 30 to 1. When asset values fell, those banks were quickly wiped out. But now the Fed is holding many of the same types of assets and is levered 51 to 1! If the value of their portfolio were to fall by just 2% the Fed itself would be wiped out.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/michael-pento-central-bankruptcy-why-qe3-inevitable-105819637.html
Sonies, Ford owned a real estate agency that focused on the west side. Those proposed laws don’t make a ton of sense, but there has been an issue with obtaining quality appraisals because of regulation known as Home Value Code of Conduct (HVCC). Appraisal costs went up due to the legislation and the quality of the appraisals went down significantly.
Many homeowners are frustrated because they are selling non-distressed properties to buyers who don’t want a distressed home (which don’t tend to be in nearly the same condition as non-distressed homes), yet in some areas, the only available recent comps are distressed properties so those sellers essentially can’t sell and the buyers can’t buy.
I am not sure that it is so much of a big deal in the Chicago market at large though, although I can see how this would be an issue in many non-greenzone areas. I really haven’t come across a huge number of issues on purchase transactions related to appraisals.
I recently had a client trying to refinance a condo on the south side and the appraisal came in at $38,000 (the place had stainless, granite, etc – it was immaculate). This was a condo that sold for $180k five or six years ago. Every comp in the appraisal was a foreclosure and in questionable shape relative to my client’s property, but in his hood those comps are all that sold in the last six months. I am NOT saying his home is still worth $180k, but to say it was worth $38k is a bit of a stretch… that is likely the CASH value of what those properties were sold for to investors.
“why is it every time i ever heard, in a down market, ’sellers are refusing to sell at these levels’, prices always continue to fall.”
Simple. The buyers are even more stubborn.
Architect: what is the zip like today as opposed to when you grew up? My SO and I recently checked it out and she really liked the area bc of the housing stock, shady streets, amenities and shopping on Touhy, metra and relatively easy driving to her employer (not in loop), and the added benefit of not having to pay for private elementary school. Prices seem to be falling hard (small georgians are not worth half a million). I don’t know anyone that lives there and as neighborhoods change has the demographics of the area changed too?
My refusal to pay your asking price is not stubborn bc do so would be financial suicide for me and my family.
chuk… Or there just aren’t any?
“chuk… Or there just aren’t any?”
Or there aren’t enough at the ask. Prices fall enough, there is always a buyer.
“My refusal to pay your asking price is not stubborn bc do so would be financial suicide for me and my family.”
Who says you have to pay the asking price?
If you look at MLS listings, prices still seem very high. However, those prices are meaningless. You could put a 1br condo on there for 2mil. What matters is the SELLING price. And if you look at the selling prices of the CC featured properties, you will often find the final selling price is more in-line with what people here would consider “not overpriced”.
“Simple. The buyers are even more stubborn.”
Stubborn? Not sure about that…
Buyers, generally speaking, don’t NEED to buy. Especially with rents as cheap as they have been, buyers always have the option of not buying. They can rent. They can wait. I know, I know: rents are going to SKYROCKET. But as it stands, you generally save money by renting right now.
A lot of sellers can wait too. But inevitably, situations will change and sellers will want out. Eventually some significant percent of sellers will need a buyer.
This was all much easier for sellers when more people had the means to buy and a steady drumbeat of “big winner” stories about financial success in real estate fed the buying frenzy. As the reality of a down market drives buyers away and fewer potential buyers are even capable of closing the deal, the power balance shifts.
So sellers will continue to hold if they can. The ones that can’t will continue to drive the market down. The markets work as expected…
The only reason a “double-dip” exists was due to external stimulation of the market by tax policy. Otherwise, a steady decline back to the historical trend line would be seen, as the bubble pricing is worked out. I see another 15% decline to bottom in 2012, then a U-shaped recovery where there are another 2-3 years of essentially flat pricing before a rebound. That 2-3 years could be extended 2X-3X if the currency is inflated to pay off debt and interest rates rise dramatically.
“why is it every time i ever heard, in a down market, ’sellers are refusing to sell at these levels’, prices always continue to fall.”
Check out the inventory levels on my housing stats page and you’ll see that inventories are lowest they’ve been in years. If May comes in the same way (will know in about a week) it will confirm it. Low inventory levels are a price support – and this is months of supply so it takes into account demand. Ask buyers who are looking for high quality properties how easy it is to find a bargain.
“Stubborn? Not sure about that…”
Stubborn probably not the right word, but I couldn’t think of another.
Let’s say you have a property currently worth $500k in TODAY’S market.
If you are the seller and are asking $600k, you are “stubborn”.
If you are the buyer and you are offering $400k, you are “stubborn”.
“no double or triple dip… Been 1 downmove with the teeniest noise once or twice where some idiots tried insisting said noise was an uptick….”
3d (or 4th or whatever)–as bob notes, there hasn’t been a YoY month of gain in 4 years–so we haven’t been out of the first dip yet unless you buy into NAR arguments.
Low inventories are due to seller’s too scared to sell into this market and holding back on listing. Eventually a lot of them will come to the realization that they won’t get the price they paid a few years ago and will list. Others will be forced to list because of divorces, kids, new jobs, etc…. So once there’s the slightest uptick in demand, not only will regular sellers try to list but developers will unload their properties. I’m looking to buy a place but there’s no way I’m buying into this market with prices continuing to drop unless I can get a good deal. And what happens when interest rates start increasing? They are near historical lows and still places don’t sell. Real estate is a racket unless you are in it for a long time and not looking at it as an investment.
“Stubborn probably not the right word, but I couldn’t think of another.
Let’s say you have a property currently worth $500k in TODAY’S market.
If you are the seller and are asking $600k, you are “stubborn”.
If you are the buyer and you are offering $400k, you are “stubborn”.”
Bidding 400k in a market that continues to drop is not stubborn, it’s prudent and smart. There’s so many units on the market screw the sellers who think they can still get their original buy price. It’s a repeat of the dot.com bust, all the buyers who held onto their stock kept them because they were ‘stubborn’ convinced that prices would go back up. Guess what? Their stubborness cost them as the bubble and prices never came back up. It’s the history of bubbles, they burst and it takes years to fix, this is no different. Study your economic history and you will see that bubbles repeat themselves in different markets. I’d guess the newest bubble is gold but that’s just my guess, I wouldn’t go near it though.
gary… Scary thing is how much only a few units of imbalance can cause either way. Home prices up another 4-5 percent here in May. Buyers can’t find sellers.
As for finding bargains on high end properties. I have repeatedly stated my beliefs of a bifurcating world. High end looks good to me, bullet proof -HECK NO, but pretty good. But that makes up only a few percent of properties.
anon… Like saying every flat part of a staircase is proof it’s turning…
I said before.. I’ll guess where the bottom is after i see it has already turned up. Brave, huh!
“Bidding 400k in a market that continues to drop is not stubborn, it’s prudent and smart.”
Again, that is why “stubborn” is in quotes. And you may think it is prudent and smart, but it may not be. What happens if it never reaches the buyers price, and then prices rise at some point. Would that be considered “stubborn” then? Some people aren’t willing to SELL or BUY at TODAY’S prices. The seller doesn’t want to sell at today’s prices because he hopes to get a higher price tomorrow. The buyer doesn’t want to buy at today’s prices because he hopes to get a lower price tomorrow.
You can’t say which one of them is right, because no one knows the future. Even if they think they do.
When AAPL was at $120, was it “prudent and smart” to not be willing to buy until it hit $80? After all, it was “on the way down” and it DID fall almost 30% more from $120.
“Like saying every flat part of a staircase is proof it’s turning… ”
It all depends on perspective, right?
I agree with buyer on his point regarding inventory. I personally know several folks who are continuing to rent their place(s) out in hopes that the market will rebound and they can get out. They are renting at a small loss each month.
While there’s obviously no way to quantify or capture these “accidental landlords”, it definitely is a factor to be considered when calling out price stability based on low(er) inventories.
chuk.. Interesting point… I’ll go with not prudent until it turned back up. Of course i know this ain’t your style.
Btw you cursed the market ever moving again. You are the hawaiian tiki doll of volatility.. Lol -brady bunch reference for miu-
“Of course i know this ain’t your style.”
Well, actually it is my style for the most part. The only reason I am actively looking to buy in CHI right now is because I need to. Not because I think it’s “the bottom”.
If I could dollar cost average into housing, I would be starting now, but I would only be putting 10% in. I would then be adding all the way to “the bottom”.
But I’m only looking to buy 1 property, not 10, so that is not an option for me.
I know a guy who’d been trying to sell, and has been chasing the market down since 2007; and in 2009 after 2 years of no offers he decided to rent it out; and now in 2011 he relisted it in line with the comps – and he got an offer: 20% off the listing price. He rejected it as an insult, he told me “there’s always some guy out there trying to steal your house from you” and instead decided to rent it out to some couple that recently lost their home to foreclosure – no counter-offer to the prospective buyer. He’s got plenty of equity too – it’s brutal out there.
“John999 on May 31st, 2011 at 10:43 am
I agree with buyer on his point regarding inventory. I personally know several folks who are continuing to rent their place(s) out in hopes that the market will rebound and they can get out. They are renting at a small loss each month.
While there’s obviously no way to quantify or capture these “accidental landlords”, it definitely is a factor to be considered when calling out price stability based on low(er) inventories.”
I really question the government’s decision to prop up housing prices. Wouldn’t cheaper housing help the economy by allowing people to spend less of their budget on housing and therefore more on the crap we used to be able to blow our money on? Why did housing having to change from a place to live to an investment? Wouldn’t you need less money for retirement if you paid less in rent/mortgage? If you let people walk away from their mortgages, who does it hurt if you let home prices fall to reasonable levels?
I have to assume the big push behind our government’s desire to inflate housing comes from the banks. These asshat clowns ruined their businesses with moronic loans and got bailed out by the government. They should be the ones to hold the bag if housing were to fall to its true level. Of course, since our government has now backstopped many of these banks by buying their crappy mortgages (and have guaranteed many more through Fannie and Freddie) I guess ultimately the government will be held responsible if they allow it to happen. I think the fair thing would be to void the ridiculous benefits Paulson and company gave the banks for lack of consideration but I’m not sure how the courts will like that.
Baby boomers are also part of this push. It certainly seems like Bernanke and Timmy are protecting the 50+ in this country, because these people, many of whom have a more than one property, would also stand to lose a lot if property values fell to a sane level.
There is a scenario when housing now could be a good investment. That’s if the government keeps up with the money printing (Bernanke is more or less committed to this strategy, no matter how many iterations fail). The question is how far will the prices drop before he really does rent that helicopter and dump many more billions of dollars on the banking industry.
The other key question for housing is how much shadow inventory remains. It seems to me there tons of condos in waiting in Chicago. I hope that is the case so that I can afford a condo with a decent amount of space. I am waiting for capitulation and hopefully that comes in a year or two when I have a large downpayment saved.
” no counter-offer to the prospective buyer”
I would define that as stubborn. Although i’d need to know the deets. i.e. 20% of 100,000 is only offering 80K, if you meet in the middle, you’re not bringing too much to the table if it gets you out of that house.
20% of 500K is 100K, even if you meet in the middle of that, most cannot possibly bring that much to the table.
Ben can print money all he wants but unless that money makes its way into the hands of the profligate who will actually spend it, running the printing presses will do little good. He will literally have to resort to televised helicopter drops of cash to get that money into the hands of people who will spend it on cars, houses and drugs, etc. His helicopter drops today (the .00001% loans he made and the QE bond purchases aka free money to the banks) seem only to drive up the price of gas and food and not much else, and definitely not housing.
I don’t know for sure (And given the relationship I have with this person, I’m not all that interested) but if I had to guess, it’s probably listed at $250, with an offer of $200k, and he’d probably walk away from the sale with less than $10,000, which he cannot do bc he was suppoesd the paper equity from the old house to refurbish the new house.
I think it was initially listed in the $400’s in 2007 with no bites.
And you’re saying it was overpriced in 2007?
some days I think gladly pay $10K to be free and clear of my 2/1 condo.
“Ben can print money all he wants but unless that money makes its way into the hands of the profligate who will actually spend it, running the printing presses will do little good. He will literally have to resort to televised helicopter drops of cash to get that money into the hands of people who will spend it on cars, houses and drugs, etc. His helicopter drops today (the .00001% loans he made and the QE bond purchases aka free money to the banks) seem only to drive up the price of gas and food and not much else, and definitely not housing.”
This.
Interest rates will eventually go up, and that combined with the fact that wages haven’t gone up in something like 10 years (and probably won’t go up anytime soon, given current policy) will keep downward pressure on prices for years to come. Maybe not many big price drops ahead, but we’ll at least be bouncing along the bottom for years to come.
Burn baby burn! 2% per month. Those “stubborn” sellers are going to keep inventory lower, hold their precious unique 2/1.5 off the market then 10 years from beat each other up racing to get out at half of todays price. Typical herd mentality. Those 1 level smallish looking brick homes on nice streets in far NW hoods, still look like the size of a garage!, and will eventually be priced as such. Does anyone think the next generation would even want to live in them at $200k in todays dollars? Not a chance. Don’t mean to be crude, but all the people who like/tolerate that kind of home will be dead in the not to distant future. Biological reality.
The bottom will be in when the average guy with a 4-year degree and a few years at a steady job can put a non-distressed 2/2 in rogers park on his credit card – meaning sub a $20k purchase price. We are far from that point, very far.
Eventually distressed and non-distressed properties will sell within 10% of each other, adjusting for condition. It’s just simple arbitrage. That is far from the case today. In todays market if you have a distressed unit selling for $75k (that needs $15k to be perfect), you have some joker seller peddling the exact same unit at $180k. Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.
Best advice: Buyers keep waiting, wait all the way until we have a legit market. Sellers, don’t be an stubborn fool and cut to the front of the herd while you still can. Think about this, in 2020 do you think ANYONE is going to give a crap what you paid in 1998 to 2008?!
At some point money might trickle down to consumers if he keeps printing. The first two rounds were mainly given to his Wall St. supporters and they are keeping the cash on their balance sheets rather than lending it. (And of course they are speculating in the stock and commodities markets.) If we get to hyperinflation real estate will not be a bad place to be.
Considering the sizable deficits we are running without taking into account the massive problems with medicare and social security and the fact that we don’t make anything in this country any more so we don’t have jobs for everyone I’m not convinced hyper-inflation will not be a result a few years down the road. I hope I am not holding cash if and when that happens.
As an aside, I really feel that someone like Ron Paul is the main way to save this country from its government. We have got to get the Federal Reserve under control. The corruption we’ve seen in bailing out the banking and financial industry is just sickening. How Paulson and the other powers that be are not going to prison for reimbursing all those bankers, including Goldman Sachs and company, for their justly deserved losses is just beyond me. It seems to me we are in a similar state as Ireland (or was it Iceland), where the government guaranteed absolutely retarded debts of the privately owned banks for no apparent reason. How those agreements are enforceable is beyond me, they are unconscionable. The purchases our federal reserve made are just as bad. The last few years have had me re-evaluating my naive beliefs that we had a capitalist economy and democratic government. Neither one seems to be true at this point.
Ya know EB, most of the times I agree with so much of what you said. Particularly the never disengaging those who took the risk from the reward, but then who did take the risk? who wanted it? I remember being at parties and saying things like poor people shouldn’t be able to buy houses. Then I would get ripped for being an elitist. Then I remember all the HELOC people with the cars, shoes, and vacations… of course these people seem to no longer enter the convo… Only people duped by the bankers. Fuck!! when I was 5, 5!!! I knew not to borrow what I couldn’t pay back. Seriously, the second you say “I got duped by predatory lenders” you should have your drivers license removed that very moment. Maybe we do need nanny care. Or some type of Logans Run based on common sense as opposed to age.
Not being an apologist, but c’mon.. this was well deserved all around. Only guy I feel bad for is the practical saver who had to bid against the 5%’ers. But being the practical guy has sucked something special lately.
Oh and if it were a capitalist system there never would have been a fannie/freddie.
What — clio hasn’t chimed in yet to trash C-S and call all of you f’n idiots for paying attention to it?
Not that I miss that….
“clio hasn’t chimed in yet to trash C-S and call all of you f’n idiots for paying attention to it?”
I’m wondering when G will pop in to chide Gary and JMM with the new lows.
speaking of lambo driving peoples, is it wierd whenever I see someone driving a red gallardo (convertible with beige leather seats like I did yesterday) I think of clio?
The name has been said 3 times.. that means the Jersey Devil appears?
I just figure the NAR promoted her and now she doesn’t have to post anymore.
“As an aside, I really feel that someone like Ron Paul is the main way to save this country from its government.”
Except the population is not smart enough to ever elect someone like Paul.
Chicago SFH SA high tier as a % of SFH SA High tier March 2010:
2010 4 99.1%
2010 5 98.8%
2010 6 100.1%
2010 7 100.0%
2010 8 99.7%
2010 9 98.4%
2010 10 96.8%
2010 11 95.6%
2010 12 95.5%
2011 1 95.5%
2011 2 95.3%
2011 3 94.8%
The real drop happened at the end of 2010. The rest has been marking time.
And in other news:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-30/rising-rents-risk-higher-u-s-inflation-as-fed-s-rate-restraint-questioned.html
Ze, I don’t believe to have superior profiling powers, but C was definitely a guy not a gal.
As for your point on borrowing, I am like you too, but heck there are many people who drink the kool-aid, this is where regulations come in. I don’t believe people in Asia or Europe have much more sense, it is just that the bank won’t approve of some huge loan for them that they can later on walk away from.
“that means the Jersey Devil appears”
Um, finals is Vancouver v Bruins. Devils should all be available for personal appearances.
You guys realize that the problem was to a large extent due to lack of regulation, right?
““As an aside, I really feel that someone like Ron Paul is the main way to save this country from its government.”
Except the population is not smart enough to ever elect someone like Paul.”
“When AAPL was at $120, was it “prudent and smart” to not be willing to buy until it hit $80? After all, it was “on the way down” and it DID fall almost 30% more from $120.”
If you really want to roll that way I’d say the current RE situation is more like holding onto 1999 MSFT.
Maybe you’ll get your money back, maybe even in real dollars decades from now, but if we are purely talking investment you are wasting time and money holding onto bubble crap.
You guys realize that the problem was to a large extent due to lack of regulation, right?
NO!!!!!!!!!!! Problem is due to regulation. The free market would not allow it. Or the free market would properly price it, Or the free market would bear the risk for it and assume the consequences and then readjust accordingly, which to me is just as good and acceptable.
Housing prices triple dipped between 1991 and 1995 I believe.
gov’t intervention and shitty lawmaking is the problem.
The residential real estate market is one of the most over regulated markets in our economy. The friction and cost added due to crazy regulations in this business is mind boggling.
“NO!!!!!!!!!!! Problem is due to regulation. The free market would not allow it. Or the free market would properly price it, Or the free market would bear the risk for it and assume the consequences and then readjust accordingly, which to me is just as good and acceptable.”
Free market does not entirely mean unregulated market. If there is no referee the match will turn out to chaos and players cannot fulfill their potential. When no regulation became the free market, the trouble started.
It is another huge part of the problem, when they try to intervene after the fact. If the regulations were in place, we would not be in the lending mess and would not subsequently end up in pathetic rescue missions.
“gov’t intervention and shitty lawmaking is the problem.”
AIG and Citigroup bet the farm in the market they lobbied so hard to keep less regulated or regulation in their favor. They guessed wrong.
That they were allowed to continue to exists shows how much power large financial conglomerates have in this country. They made the risks Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns took look trivial in comparison.
There’s plenty of regulations already in place…
The REAL problem is, is that the average joe usually gets screwed by the brilliant lawyers/investment bankers that find ways AROUND the existing regulations….
so then what is the solution to that? More regulations made by lawyers and investment bankers…
yeah, no problem here, move along now!
USA! USA! USA!
Miu… The bond market, stock market, commodity markets, etc all function in chaos and function rather well with the players getting what they want/deserve. Regulation only really extends to keeping people from doing illegal shit.
Do you think the market won’t write someone a loan? Yeah show good income, 30% down and you have a fair rate jumbo no prob! Show low income, low down, prepare for a big fat rate in your face. Just like it should work.
Do you think this isn’t how it was done for centuries? Do you think without government agencies buying it someone was going to write a zero down, un doc, low rate loan to someone? NEVER!! or in more fairness, maybe not never BUT.. Not for long…
“If you really want to roll that way I’d say the current RE situation is more like holding onto 1999 MSFT.”
I would say its more like holding onto 2001 MSFT. I certainly don’t expect real estate to triple like AAPL did, my only point was you can’t make the blanket statement that its not “prudent and smart” to buy something just because it is still going down. Some people here are “knife catchers” and will buy a place for 500k now on the way down to 450k. Others are more patient and will buy a place for 500k on the way up from 450k. Probably 90% of the people here fall into one of those 2 categories. The other 10% are made up of the few who will nail the bottom out of pure luck. And the doom and gloomers that will never buy.
“The REAL problem is, is that the average joe usually gets screwed by the brilliant lawyers/investment bankers that find ways AROUND the existing regulations…. ”
When I was reading a WSJ article on Dodd-Frank awhile back I was surprised how lacking in specifics it was, even regarding keeping adequate capital on hand as a hedge for speculative positions. Of course the financial industry had their lobbyists in there intentionally making the rules of the massive bill vague so they could be circumvented. What is a hedge vs. a speculative position? Leave it to the bankers to classify their speculation as hedging.
That won’t stop the miumiu’s of the world from believing that regulation can and should be used over the free market to solve society’s ills.
Had the free market been able to work not only would it have instilled a lot of discipline in surviving financial firms going forward, the entire housing bubble likely would’ve been averted. The government backstopped the financing of real estate, much like higher education, causing the equilibrium price of the underlying good to rise abnormally.
“I certainly don’t expect real estate to triple like AAPL did”
… wouldn’t that be a funny surprise.
Ze, could you then explain to me why Canada and Europe fared better in the crisis as they had more regulated markets? I don’t claim to be market savvy but I just am in general wary of extreme point of views: unregulated markets are as scary as communism to me.
After all lack of proper regulations made it possible for Goldman to short mortgage assets while still selling them to clients.
“The other 10% are made up of the few who will nail the bottom out of pure luck. And the doom and gloomers that will never buy.”
I think the stock comparison is silly anyways if you are looking for a long term primary residence. Ones life’s circumstances and affordability is far more important than trying to hit a bottom.
“Do you think this isn’t how it was done for centuries? Do you think without government agencies buying it someone was going to write a zero down, un doc, low rate loan to someone? NEVER!! or in more fairness, maybe not never BUT.. Not for long…”
Sure they would, they’ll just find a way to package shit mortgages and sell them to suckers and introduce extreme volatility to something as vital as housing…
“Goldman to short mortgage assets while still selling them to clients.”
Chinese wall. Regulations demanded it.
“Europe fared better”
Not sure that’s a totally fair statement there. A few cities did. Canada… commodity boom. They got TONS!!!! Oh good lord do they have commodities… energy in particular. Anyone with commodities it has been a good few years. For example Brasil. I am living/watching the runaway RE market of a lifetime while simultaneously reading how bad another RE market is. Worlds a laugh!
“Europe fared better in the crisis as they had more regulated markets?”
Europe is screwed, much more of a political cluster fuck and entire nations completely ruined by debt and a lot of hating going on between EU members. Gonna take a good while for things to chill out over there.
“Chinese wall. Regulations demanded it.”
What?
Also I thought US had a pretty large commodity market. It is an agricultural giant after all.
“Do you think without government agencies buying it someone was going to write a zero down, un doc, low rate loan to someone? NEVER!! or in more fairness, maybe not never BUT.. Not for long…”
Yeah, there were a TON of buyers of that shite, based on the “guarantee”, which is (part of) why we’re buying so much of the shite now.
How long was the heyday of CDO-squared, including squaring of non-RMBS assets? 2.5-3 years? Believe me, there was more vapor being sold then you are admitting here, ze.
“What?”
Prop trading arm and bond sales arms (among many others) are “not allowed” to communicate/cross-sell thanks to regs introduced after Blodget’s Merrill Lynch group sent too many stupid emails about the POS stocks (pets.com, webvan, etc) that they were about to initiate coverage of with “STRONG BUY” because the IPO group was telling the analyst group they had to, either directly or with bonus $$.
March 2011 Chicago CS SA = 114.96
JMM on September 28th, 2010 at 2:59 pm
“I know HD knows better than the guy who put the index together, so I will refrain from any second guessing.
My bet is you see the index stay essentially flat in a band between 120 and 130 for the next year.”
http://cribchatter.com/?p=9343#comment-94158#comment-94158
“The other 10% are made up of the few who will nail the bottom out of pure luck. ”
Pure luck? Real estate isn’t some high liquidity equity where you need the exact tick to get the day’s best price. If you’re looking at the right metrics I think it is entirely possible to come within a few percent of the bottom.
Look at how much noise was made on this thread talking about double and triple dips. Heck look at the financial press for even more noise. For those able to discern meaningful metrics from the noise, I don’t think timing the bottom will be exceedingly difficult.
Purchasing in the right “month” sure might be..but I’d bet its going to be a winter month. The year isn’t here yet. The data tells us that much.
Bob, if it was so easy… everyone would be doing it…
I belive there was some study done and you can only time the market properly 2% of the time due mostly to pure luck
“I belive there was some study done and you can only time the market properly 2% of the time due mostly to pure luck”
BUT–Bob is right about housing. If nothing else, the bottom for *the house you buy* is rather unlikely to match the bottom of the whole market. Kinda like judging whether you bought AAPL at it’s bottom by looking at the NASDAQ bottom–there’s some correlation, and they might occur on the same day (month, in the case of housing), but if they don’t match exactly doesn’t mean you could have gotten it for less on a different day/month.
“March 2011 Chicago CS SA = 114.96”
But what about the high tier, G? That’s still holding strong, isn’t it?
LOL
“But what about the high tier, G? That’s still holding strong, isn’t it?”
Essentially flat actually, at least since the end of 2010. But that is besides the point.
G would of course have missed the part where I revised expectations based on this:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-31/illinois-governor-quinn-signs-pension-bill-that-chicago-mayor-daley-fought.html
That is a material adverse change to Chicago (and Illinois) real estate, which changes everything. Of course, if you don’t believe me, just wait for the tax bill. It’s coming.
I will let him dig that part up.
“I think it is entirely possible to come within a few percent of the bottom.”
Absolutely not, still a prognostication, too many variables you aren’t even thinking about involved.
“Also I thought US had a pretty large commodity market. It is an agricultural giant after all.”
Huge market but with high production costs in ags, I could never do what I am doing in the states. More importantly look at the energy bill per month. X% of world population 5X% of global demand.. not logical.
And yes anon.. the vapor sellers belong in jail.. there will always unfortunately be those, in sadness most don’t even see what their doing, just playin a game, nonetheless, jail.
“March 2011 Chicago CS SA = 114.96?
No more JMM. Most of the anonymous cheerleaders just disappear and come back as a new moniker. Steve Heitmann where art thou?
And Miu.. I gotta go.. but you are doing things right and should worry about it less. For you… go the enjoy life path!
“And yes anon.. the vapor sellers belong in jail..”
Even the ones who were selling vapor because they didn’t realize they were selling vapor? That really believed in the “new paradigm”? I mean, jail for the excessively stupid *sounds* like a good idea, until you get the bill for the prison building spree.
Oops I applaud you for not disappearing, JMM. Yes it appears our legislators have it in to doom homeowners by adding extra taxes on top of their already overburdened finances.
Home ownership seems to put a crosshare for the taxman in bluest of the blue states like Illinois.
But hey at least those teachers are earning six figures:
http://www.suntimes.com/5484550-417/some-illinois-public-school-teachers-earning-six-figure-salaries.html
Keep voting Democrat–for Chicago’s future look toward Detroit.
Bob … with JMM if it ain’t hittin his part.. he’s probably laughin.
Peace!
Thanks Ze. Go have fun : )
“That really believed in the “new paradigm”? I mean, jail for the excessively stupid *sounds* like a good idea, until you get the bill for the prison building spree.”
A system with only carrots but no sticks is designed to fail.
“But hey at least those teachers are earning six figures:
http://www.suntimes.com/5484550-417/some-illinois-public-school-teachers-earning-six-figure-salaries.html
Keep voting Democrat–for Chicago’s future look toward Detroit.”
Did you read the article? Say Illinois = Michigan, but that article had fairly little to do with the city.
we had that convo… hard to go after consequences in first place, in my opinion, but you should know 1000 times more than me about that.
I would as a layman think there is no shortage of provable evidence out there, people are really electronically lacking in care. Once again, no one about to turn this stone over so why argue theoretically. Stone left unturned, another thing that surprised me, shoulda known better.
“But what about the high tier, G? That’s still holding strong, isn’t it?”
Not surprising given that a high tier northside SFH rents for $7300.
I threw any hope for Chicago RE out the window the day that crap was signed. That piece of legislation (and there are plenty of other things) changed everything. It’s a disaster that people won’t wake up to until it hits the tax bills. Talk about foreclosures.
“Not surprising given that a high tier northside SFH rents for $7300.”
Are you disputing the print or just making fun of it?
Interestingly, though many spec builders don’t advertise it, I’ve heard super high end rentals can be had on the QT from really good builders. It will cost you, but it can be had.
Wow $7,300 is a bargain:
http://www.urbanrealestate.com/property/1305-W-Waveland-CHICAGO-IL-60613-JFBO3TGRC5NTA.html
http://www.urbanrealestate.com/property/1510-W-Melrose-CHICAGO-IL-60657-FS2SCCZPDGGNQ.html
$5,000 doesn’t even get you a SFH detached:
http://www.urbanrealestate.com/property/3025-N-Kenmore-Unit-1-CHICAGO-IL-60657-WWFMPGJGD6OZO.html
“I’ve heard super high end rentals can be had on the QT from really good builders”
Well, when a name-brand builder takes a–say, $1.995mm at last list–property off the market without recording a sale, I dunno how much it’s on the QT (rumor is $10k rent; unconfirmed, of course). But I don’t think those places are advertised ever, and certainly not on the MLS.
“But I don’t think those places are advertised ever, and certainly not on the MLS.”
Correct, but call brand name builder and ask reception for the rentals department, see what they say.
“or just making fun of it?”
Not it, you.
“G would of course have missed the part where I revised expectations based on this”
When it was already at 117.
“Not it, you.”
Still waiting for the IAR retraction. Pls provide a link.
“When it was already at 117.”
Incorrect.
“Still waiting for the IAR retraction.”
Me, too.
G, you need to learn how to peddle your hard work into something then. Be aggressive.
Should help the bleeding you have on your two houses. Lol.
“Incorrect.”
Of course you are, JMM.
Bill signed 12/19/10
December 2010 Chicago CS SA = 117.02
typo, bill signed 12/29/10
“G, you need to learn how to peddle your hard work into something then.”
What hard work? This is easy.
“Of course you are, JMM.
Bill signed 12/19/10”
Sorry but comment made well before bill signature. Lol.
And in other news:
http://www.chicagorealestatedaily.com/article/20110531/CRED02/110539988/suburban-apartment-rents-rise-to-new-high
“Sorry but comment made well before bill signature.”
And most (prob very substantial majority) of the contracts that caused case shiller to go below your “call” were entered before you made your end of sept call, and prob virtually all were entered before you retracted your call, whenever that was.
Also, if you are truly delivering value to us, and I would hope you would be, shouldn’t your call anticipate stuff that happens a month or two later?
“shouldn’t your call anticipate stuff that happens a month or two later?”
The bill didn’t exactly drop from the sky, either. Quinn was talking about it before the election, too, and I’m sure it was in line with one of the promises he made to the public employee unions for their support.
Gary-
I’m glad you brought up the inventories. I can REALLY tell this summer that the inventories are low. Usually I have plenty of properties to choose from to feature on Crib Chatter- but to be honest- it feels like it is December or January- when there is NOTHING good out there.
If you’re looking for something really specific- like a 3-bedroom townhouse in Lakeview or Lincoln Park priced under $500k- good luck. There aren’t many of those out there. They ARE selling quickly as a result.
Ditto for “move-in” ready homes under, say, $500k anywhere in the GZ (if there even ARE any on the market.)
There is still a glut of the $1 million+ homes. The truly upper end ($3 million and higher) is moving a bit more. But I chalk that up to the stock market- and nothing more.
People are only listing if they HAVE to. Otherwise, many homeowners who want to move are listing their properties for rent. Lots of accidental landlords that will, at some point, want to sell. This is a whole other shadow inventory that is looming out there- in addition to the foreclosures.
@bob
“But hey at least those teachers are earning six figures
….No only banksters are allowed to make six figures since they provide so much value to society.
I wish more teachers were making six figures and best of the best were coming into this profession….
It’s funny that on the same day everyone is debating the schools (in another thread) and jockeying to get their children into those schools- they are offended that the teachers in some of those schools (New Trier for example) who are going to teach their senior college level math so they can test out of it later- are making six figures.
Ah…the irony…
“speaking of lambo driving peoples, is it wierd whenever I see someone driving a red gallardo (convertible with beige leather seats like I did yesterday) I think of clio?”
I don’t think there are many (if any) other “rosso vik” gallardo convertibles other than mine (and mine has black seats). I will be in the city on thursday – so if you see one then, it IS me!!!
odd how my experience with NT kids led me to believe they only taught how to roll 100 dollar bills into straws and the physics behind cutting lines.
“odd how my experience with NT kids led me to believe they only taught how to roll 100 dollar bills into straws and the physics behind cutting lines.”
Ahh the old 80’s stereotypes behind spoiled suburban kids from good families. It makes for good hollyweird material like in less than zero but let me tell you this: better the HS kids than the CPS grads who are adults who frequently engage in this same behavior. I don’t partake in that activity but I know a many who do.
“….No only banksters are allowed to make six figures since they provide so much value to society.
I wish more teachers were making six figures and best of the best were coming into this profession….”
You’re grossly misinformed. Most bankers don’t earn six figures. Try 35-65k with a strict dress code with no pension and little job security. And if you think increased teacher comp overall is a good thing overall you have no idea of how labor markets operate.
“who are going to teach their senior college level math so they can test out of it later- are making six figures.”
This is laughable–I was taught college level math by teaching assistants who likely made no more than 45k with few benefits. My HS teachers who taught calculus were probably paid similarly but with better benefits. This was circa 10-15 years ago. What has happened to average US worker wages in those past 15 years? Has the subject matter of calculus changed over this past timeframe?
It appears you’re inferring that teaching calculus should somehow be prized by society as being a six figure profession, yet these teaching positions come with little career risk and it’s not a unique or even uncommon skill set.
Why are you holding teachers, and more broadly public workers, to a different standard than others (ie: private sector workers), who have to compete in a free marketplace utilizing their skillset?
This country is about to hit a big schism between the likes of you and the miumius of the world who don’t quite get it and those who work in the field, see an uneven playing field, and do. It’s not difficult to learn calculus and teach it.
When we’re talking six figure remuneration complete with union job security and benefits/pensions, it’s truly a case of government worker haves and private sector have nots.
Wasn’t there a lawyer for the city who posted on here that after furloughs that they had an effective starting wage of 56k with no defined benefit retirement plan from the city?
And miumiu and sabrina are defending public school teachers, some of whom teach calculus (gasp–it’s so rare and unique a skillset!) of their six figure salaries?
The political battle lines have already been drawn between unions and the taxpayers. In Illinois it appears so far the unions definitely have the upper hand.
Hence Illinois economy will not recover in any meaningful way–if you are part of the connected class you will prosper and if you aren’t you will pay their way and we will march towards resembling a third world country where class/status is determined not by education level but rather the connected and the not.
This real estate depression will be especially interesting and entertaining for people who share my ideology–watching those who don’t suffer catastrophic financial consequences if they aren’t part of the public sector machine (looters).
bob.. I have so many faces and names to the stereotype. Pretty much all 90’s grads too. NT loves the blow… Hell even more than Choate kids -maybe only bri gets that last part.
Calculus.. Learned reading a book. Value about 19.95. Finance 59.95, nothin muc new to teach there either, oh not to mention how much was taught incorrectly in soooo many classes. See econ, english lit, social science. No teach, the name Holden Caufield is not about HOLD ON to your youth, Holden was simply one of the names of Salingers best friends. NYT book review article, 1dollar. ‘when i think back to all the crap i learned in high school, it’s a wonder i can think at all…..’
As for teaching class. Did it once for free, top school, grad level, easiest thing ever. Oh and every future year would have been the same material w/o career risk..
Little risk and easily replaceable deserves lower pay.
@bob
“You’re grossly misinformed. Most bankers don’t earn six figures. Try 35-65k with a strict dress code with no pension and little job security. And if you think increased teacher comp overall is a good thing overall you have no idea of how labor markets operate.”
Actually you have no idea how labor market operates. This is called capitalism. You get what you pay for. Read the article again. These teachers are in one of the best performing school districts in the state. They are being paid for being good.
My point was that why can’t a good teacher expect to make six figures? Is it too much to ask for someone who is shaping your kids future?
If education was not state controlled in this country. I suspect you will see a lot more 6 figure salaries in higher end schools since some parents will pay for the best teachers and the rest will get what they pay for….
“Hell even more than Choate kids”
NT kids don’t need to send anyone to Caracas, so it probably cuts both ways.
@bob
oh and by the way…. the last time I checked the school districts mentioned in this articles were highly sought after. Doesn’t seem like the parents are complaining about those 6 figure salaries.
Demand and supply you see…
Look I am not justifying how teachers unions operate or state of education in general. I am just pointing out that this is actually a good example where teachers are being compensated for being very good at their job. We should be encouraging this, not citing it as an example of abuse of system. There are plenty of examples available for that.
“I suspect you will see a lot more 6 figure salaries in higher end schools since some parents will pay for the best teachers”
Whats the pay structure at the existing elite private schools? I dont mean the ones here, i mean the ones that get name dropped from time to time.
sartre.. I can just as easily assume that to obtain those better teachers – and there definitely are great teachers, i had 1 or 2, 1 in particular – are being paid premium over inflated state controlled benefits and if those were removed salaries would drop accordingly.
Anon… Always confusing me with your nyc prep school understanding… Maybe you and bri both went to Collegiate or something?
“Maybe you and bri both went to Collegiate or something?”
I’m just old. And remember a lot of random, generally useless, info.
I have no problem with increases in teacher pay in the current term for high performers, assuming there would be a reduction in future retirement benefits – let’s freeze the pensions and put them on a 401(k) system like all the private sector has.
@gringozecarioca
“sartre.. I can just as easily assume that to obtain those better teachers – and there definitely are great teachers, i had 1 or 2, 1 in particular – are being paid premium over inflated state controlled benefits and if those were removed salaries would drop accordingly.”
Possibly…or the labor pool could shrink significantly as incompetent teachers are fired, sending wages for good teachers higher.
Either way, my point was that citing salaries at the best performing school districts as an example of union abuse and implying that somehow these teachers don’t deserve six figure salaries is probably not a strong argument.
I think teacher pay should have more of a distribution to it, unless you turn it into an up and out type of thing at the best schools. Teachers unions don’t want merit pay however.
IMHO the teacher pay issue, when you boil it down, is really just about real estate taxes. Long term homeowners in good school districts are trying to sell their homes, with $600, $800 or $1000 a month taxes, to a younger generation of buyers, who still have school aged children, and neither the current homeowner nor the potential buyer wants to pay that much tax, which is the foundation of the above average compensation (with benefits) to teachers, municipal employees, etc.
(originally posted in wrong thread)
Miumiu, I’m trying to catch up on your comment from yesterday. I agree that regulation was a HUGE problem in this blow-up. The leverage financial institutions were using was unconscionably stupid. Ron Paul is asking for the Fed to open their books which will help with regulation. They do not want to release them because it will show billions of dollars going to Wall St. for no good reason (or maybe for illegal reasons).
I hate politics because our system is broken and we have to choose between two virtually identical people, or 2 completely incompetent people (e.g., Bush v. Gore). Ron Paul is one of the few people that are asking the right questions and are trying to fix the economy where it is broken. Of course, at some point he will probably disappoint me but this is where my hope currently lies.
That bill on taxes is kind of scary. It shows how out of control government is, at this point it can’t be contained. How Quinn won that election is an absolute travesty, people need to wake up to the Democratic machine … higher state income tax, higher property taxes, more sales tax … we need a responsible politician that will manage the bottom line.
“How Quinn won that election is an absolute travesty”
You mean that the Illinois Republican Party is in charge of nominating Republican candidates for statewide office? When the Republican primary system turns out a moderate-ish candidate, they win–see Mark Kirk. When they don’t, they lose.
True anon (tfo), I actually was going to put the republican candidate’s name as an example of choosing between two incompetent’s but I couldn’t remember who it was.
“but I couldn’t remember who it was.”
Bill Brady.
Dillard would have beat quinn but brady won the primary by only a couple hundred votes, if that.
“Dillard would have beat quinn”
Agreed.
“brady won the primary by only a couple hundred votes”
Close enough that Dillard had a *right* under party rules (state law?), to have a recount, but he decided against it.
EB, to be honest I have not carefully read about Ron Paul so I should read more on him. I believe limiting government waste is a great practice, but so is regulating the market so it does not become the playground of greedy powerful financiers politicians and lobbyist who only care about making a quick buck and have no vision of what happens to the country. At the end of the day, it is important to have entities with longer vision and interest of the country in mind. That entity should be the government (if it was functional) and the intellectuals and journalist, fair judges and so on (at least theoretically). There was an article in economist not long ago about the state of public transport in this country and how it is a disaster. At least the president is trying to address it. I wonder what will happen to infrastructure if fanatic tea party types take over.
Come on, Ron Paul? He has said he wants to eliminate the CIA, UN, and EPA, oh and Fed.
“He has said he wants to eliminate the CIA, UN, and EPA, oh and Fed.”
And bring back the Gold Standard. He has a whiff of a 21st century William Jennings Bryan, but in reverse.
“Come on, Ron Paul? He has said he wants to eliminate the CIA, UN, and EPA, oh and Fed.”
This is why America is in trouble. As president would he actually be able to do any of these initiatives?
At the very least he wouldn’t be violating out constitution like our current president is (no congressional approval for Libya). Oh and he wouldn’t get us into more conflicts like our current president did.
“Oh and he wouldn’t get us into more conflicts like our current president did.”
Or the last one, or the one before that, etc., etc., etc.
Sabrina:
I apologize for my contribution to this, but please! help!
“You mean that the Illinois Republican Party is in charge of nominating Republican candidates for statewide office? When the Republican primary system turns out a moderate-ish candidate, they win–see Mark Kirk. When they don’t, they lose.”
You can have this simplistic analysis and opinion if you only look at the end result and ignore both the final vote counts as well as the discrepancies in six Cook county precincts on election night. It was close and potential fraud was never investigated.
When six precincts out of thousands have “problems” requiring them to delay reporting while all other numbers come in, that should be looked at.
If real estate is falling when you can get a 30-year mortgage at 4%, as is the case now, just imagine what it’s going to do when its 7%.