Market Conditions: Chicago August Sales at 4-Year Highs But Suburbs Hotter
The Illinois Association of Realtors is out with the August sales.
During the month, there was a second looting episode while the coronavirus pandemic continued.
Many thought there would be fleeing from the city to the suburbs and other states but sales continue to see year-over-year gains in the strongest August in 4 years.
The city of Chicago saw year-over-year home sales increase 8.2 percent with 2,813 sales in August, compared to 2,601 a year ago. The median price of a home in the city of Chicago in August was $335,000, up 15.6 percent from August 2019.
However, the suburbs saw August home sales jump 19.6%.
August sales since 2007:
- August 2007: 2923 sales
- August 2008: 2078 sales
- August 2009: 1927 sales
- August 2010: 1486 sales
- August 2011: 1787 sales
- August 2012: 2209 sales
- August 2013: 2850 sales
- August 2014: 2414 sales
- August 2015: 2701 sales
- August 2016: 2844 sales
- August 2017: 2791 sales
- August 2018: 2754 sales
- August 2019: 2601 sales
- August 2020: 2813 sales
August median price since 2007:
- August 2007: $305,000
- August 2008: $297,500
- August 2009: $229,900
- August 2010: $200,000
- August 2011: $192,500
- August 2012: $200,000
- August 2013: $245,000
- August 2014: $269,500
- August 2015: $271,000
- August 2016: $271,000
- August 2017: $284,000
- August 2018: $280,000
- August 2019: $289,900
- August 2020: $335,000
This is now a new record median home price for August, surpassing the housing bubble highs.
Of course, median reflects the mix that sells and does not indicate that prices are “rising”.
Single family home sales in Chicago were up 14.8% to 1,130 sales while condos were up just 4.1% to 1,683.
“The Chicago market was hot in August as homebuyers took advantage of record-low mortgage rates,” said Maurice Hampton, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and owner of Centered International Realty. “The market data reflects this, with significant increases in closed sales and median sales prices, and a drop in inventory, compared to last August. The spike in single family home sales and prices reflects increasing desires for greater space as a result of the ongoing pandemic.”
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 2.94% in August, down from 3.02% in July. In August 2019 it was 3.62%.
Inventory plunged statewide by 35.5% to just 40,449 homes from 62,737 homes in August 2019.
“The Illinois housing market continued its summer surge in August with strong gains in both home sales and median prices,” said Sue Miller, president of Illinois REALTORS® and designated managing broker of Coldwell Banker Real Estate Group in McHenry. “Consumers are motivated and ready to buy, but many are facing chronic inventory shortfalls and that is affecting their house hunting.”
Inventory crashed 34.2% in the Chicago metro area to 27,790 from 42,241 properties.
It was down only 4.3% in Chicago to 9,787 from 10,222 properties.
Is low inventory the biggest risk to the housing market?
Illinois home sales and prices climbed higher in August as inventory and interest rates hit historic lows [Illinois Association of Realtors Press Release, September 22, 2020]
“ Of course, median reflects the mix that sells and does not indicate that prices are “rising”“
This bit of honesty is refreshing
“ The city of Chicago saw year-over-year home sales increase 8.2 percent with 2,813 sales in August, compared to 2,601 a year ago.”
How much of this increase is due to Covid lockdown demand being pushed out? A YTD comp would be nice
“ Inventory crashed 34.2% in the Chicago metro area to 27,790 from 42,241 properties.
It was down only 4.3% in Chicago to 9,787 from 10,222 properties.”
Anecdotally, Outside of gentrified areas, appreciation seems pretty flat. This is limiting the folks that were planning to buy and live for 3-5 years then upgrade. Also the suburbs are HAWT ™
“ Is low inventory the biggest risk to the housing market?”
The election being a shit show is #1
It’s definitely reflective of demand being pushed out. For comparison…with more complete data for August now, Chicago August sales were up 9.6% over last year but down 7.9% for the last 12 months and down 13.9% for the last 6 months. I don’t think we’ll fully recover the lost demand.
Gary – Thanks and If you have the 6 & 12Mo data by property type can you please post?
“I don’t think we’ll fully recover the lost demand.”
Or the demand went elsewhere
August: Attached up 5.5% Detached up 16.4%
Last 3 months: attached -6.9% detached -3.3%
Last 6 months: attached -15.7% detached -10.7%
And it differs by area of the city obviously. Like the Loop attached is down 31.8% for the last 6 months.
“This bit of honesty is refreshing”
I’ve said this about the median price for 13 years.
“How much of this increase is due to Covid lockdown demand being pushed out? A YTD comp would be nice”
There is no YTD comp when Cribchatter has always covered monthly housing sales. For 13 years.
But yes, the spring home buying season was interrupted. If you were going to buy in April, you bought in May or June. It pushed things back by about 2 months (even though some people still bought during the lockdown as it was an essential service and there were showings in March and April.)
But nationally, the home buying season was pushed out.
Yet, it remains on fire. September shouldn’t be this hot if it’s really July. The kids have gone back to school. Why is demand still so darn high?
People just want to move. They want outdoor space. They can work from anywhere so they’re moving with that in mind.
“ Is low inventory the biggest risk to the housing market?”
“The election being a shit show is #1”
For housing???? Come on.
For the economy, possibly. Because if Trump wins re-election and continues to gaslight the virus, the economy is going to spiral down. Although it will likely spiral down into January either way as Trump will continue to gaslight even if he loses.
“ For the economy, possibly. Because if Trump wins re-election and continues to gaslight the virus, the economy is going to spiral down. Although it will likely spiral down into January either way as Trump will continue to gaslight even if he loses.”
At a minimum both parties have already started to delegitimize the election results and are sowing the seeds for a non-peaceful transition of power
If Trump wins, do you really expect not to see a repeat of the fun and games of this summer?
If Biden wins, we’ll likely see the same and if he meets everyone demands for bailouts, we’ll probably see a jump in inflation
At this stage, neither one is going to be able to do jack shit about the virus. Thinking one has a silver bullet is delusional
“ There is no YTD comp when Cribchatter has always covered monthly housing sales. For 13 years.”
For this year, not having it and trying to compare to previous years is even more useless than your usual ramblings.
“ Yet, it remains on fire. September shouldn’t be this hot if it’s really July. The kids have gone back to school. Why is demand still so darn high?”
This is the inverse of cash for clunkers. If the sales numbers for the city don’t catch up by years end, then I’d say the market has cooled. Do you really think the loop area is going to erase the 31% deficit?
Also where’s all the appreciation? If the market is HAWT ™, we should be seeing housing prices appreciate. In general I don’t think we are.
“The election being a shit show is #1”
For housing???? Come on.
For the economy, possibly.
———————————
If the economy is crap, housing will be crap. Nobody wants a 30 year obligation they don’t absolutely have to have if they feel economically insecure.
There’s no marginal buyers or sellers any more. Buyers are buying only because they have to buy. Sellers are selling only because they have to sell. There are programs and moratoria to reduce the need for sellers to sell. There can be no program to reduce the need for buyers to buy. That’s why inventory is low. Spare us any crap about eviction freezes — people worried about eviction aren’t buying houses.
“For housing???? Come on.
For the economy, possibly.”
Uh, if the economy is spiraling down, so will housing. DUH!
Got an email from a realtor I worked with a few years ago indicating that home sale volume in Chicago is really neighborhood by neighborhood which makes a lot of sense. His numbers show Loop inventory is way up (+11% versus a year ago – – which makes sense, if you can work from home why be so close to the office?), while North Center inventory is way down (-17%).
Nationwide, inventory is down 18% versus Chicagoland which is lower by 13%.
Still in that bottom tier of worst performers in the country.
It’s like bragging about investment returns that haven’t beat inflation.
The only people happy about being a relative bottom performer are people that plan to never leave the Midwest.
“The only people happy about being a relative bottom performer are people that plan to never leave the Midwest”
There are plenty of those. As climate change worsens, many demographers expect Americans to move to the Midwest, Ohio Valley and upstate NY where the impacts won’t be nearly as bad as elsewhere.
Phoenix just had its warmest summer ever and that meant temps averaged over 100 degrees for months. Florida has had the same. Just brutal.
Chicago will see a surge in population. St. Louis as well. Ditto for Milwaukee, Detroit, Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Indianapolis.
“His numbers show Loop inventory is way up (+11% versus a year ago – – which makes sense, if you can work from home why be so close to the office?), while North Center inventory is way down (-17%).”
Yep. Downtown condos are not selling, especially those without any outdoor space.
Houses, townhouses and condos in the neighborhoods with outdoor space ARE selling and inventory is low. Good luck trying to buy a house for under $1 million in Southport, Roscoe Village or anywhere in Lakeview. Slim pickings, if there are any at all. Too many buyers for that.
“Uh, if the economy is spiraling down, so will housing. DUH!”
Eventually. Maybe. We’ve never seen a recession like this where the layoffs are concentrated in just a few industries (so far.) That’s why housing is the hottest it’s been in 15 years even with 30 million unemployed.
The only similar circumstance I can think of is the early 2000 recession which mostly hit technology. Most of the layoffs were in tech companies and highly concentrated in Silicon Valley/SF and Silicon Alley in NYC. Housing got hit bad in the Bay Area during that recession. But it didn’t get hit at all in Chicago, which saw few layoffs.
Interestingly, the New Orleans housing market is on fire with multiple offers and low inventory even though thousands of workers remain unemployed and likely will still be over the next 6 months. Because the reality is that those hotel workers aren’t buying $400,000 homes in New Orleans. The apartment market is going to get hammered, but not the “for sale” market.
This is a unique situation. I don’t think we can assume anything. Especially with the stock market still near all-time highs and record low mortgage rates.
My wifi went out last night but, thankfully, is back up and operating today. Whew. Nightmare during the WFH era. Lol.
I’ll put out a new chatter shortly.
“The only people happy about being a relative bottom performer are people that plan to never leave the Midwest.”
Sure, we can all be dual income mortgaged to the hilt and maxed on heloc southern Californians who spend 3/4 of their combined incomes on housing. They need great weather, they cant afford to do anything else after mortgage, taxes and gas. Trust me, I know them personally. Its why we have to go visit them. The coast arent all celebrities and financial gurus.
“The only similar circumstance I can think of is the early 2000 recession which mostly hit technology…But it didn’t get hit at all in Chicago, which saw few layoffs”
I hear this a lot but our industrial base was devastated during that recession from which it hasnt recovered. We lost a ton of local manufacturers but nobody in the business press seemed to care or notice. I think that recession was a real sleeper and the best indicator we have is the population loss since 2000 and the relative flatlining of latino population growth. The upward trajectory of growth in NE IL hit it’s apex in 2000. Source: a lot of my industrial customers are gone and it started around 911 with the buyouts and offshoring en masse.
“temps averaged over 100 degrees for months”
Phoenix weather 2020:
May 2020 had a daily average over 100 on ZERO days.
June 2020 had a daily average over 100 on ZERO days.
July 2020 had a daily average over 100 on 11 days.
August 2020 had a daily average over 100 on 16 days.
This is easy to check, and well above existing averages already–why make shit up?
“I hear this a lot but our industrial base was devastated during that recession from which it hasnt recovered.”
The dotcom recession really is seriously underplayed by so many. It wasn’t just flushing too-early (pets.com. kozmo, webvan) or too-stupid (too many to list) e-tailers, but had a ton of knock effects, and lead directly to the misallocation of capital into residential RE, the effects of which haven’t gone away.
“Sure, we can all be dual income mortgaged to the hilt and maxed on heloc southern Californians who spend 3/4 of their combined incomes on housing. They need great weather, they cant afford to do anything else after mortgage, taxes and gas. Trust me, I know them personally. Its why we have to go visit them.”
Don’t know the circumstances of your people in CA, but are their circumstances really what drive the decision whether to get together in Chicago versus southern California? Really?
@anonny “The only people happy about being a relative bottom performer are people that plan to never leave the Midwest.”
The boomer and Gen X obsession over housing values is ridiculous, from a historical and practical perspective. Historically housing has been a store of value not a speculative asset. People who cheer on the bubbles are just enabling the casinofication of everything, and in a casino the “house” always wins. You arent the house.
“Historically housing has been a store of value not a speculative asset.”
Not to disagree, really, but going a little different direction:
Historically, owner-occupied housing (as opposed to land) has been about not paying rent to a landlord. Which certainly is a store of value.
Land, in the ‘western’ economy since the industrial revolution, has contained a significant element of speculation (if nothing else, as an inflation hedge), while also being a store of value.
The speculative binge has been driven by (1) land value speculation unmoored from fundamentals in some areas (including, imo, much of GZ Chicago, and almost all of coastal Cali), and (2) dropping interest/cap rates driving up the NPV of future “rent”.
I’m quite uncomfortable with where land values here right now, and may be “obsessed” with concerns of a nominal dollar correction. Because that would be a big blow, even if I still had the stored value of avoided future rent.
Chicago will see a surge in population. St. Louis as well.
Complaining about GW and listing StL as a beneficiary? It like Houston in the summer
“St. Louis as well. Ditto for Milwaukee, Detroit, Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Indianapolis.”
I’d believe someone would move to Flagstaff or Cottonwood before moving to Detroit or Milwaukee!
“I’m quite uncomfortable with where land values here right now, and may be “obsessed” with concerns of a nominal dollar correction.”
So am I. If you are in the residential development game you get it. The land has been so high the last few years it’s been better to sit it out. You dont build to lose money, let the suckers run into this dumpster fire. And they have, with their corner cutting, illegal labor and cheap materials.
“I’d believe someone would move to Flagstaff or Cottonwood before moving to Detroit or Milwaukee!”
A native Californian wrote in the The Atlantic that she has decided to move from Oregon to Minneapolis because of the fires and climate change. Her parents nearly died in the Sonoma fires in California a few years ago and now she can’t breathe in Oregon. It’s every year now.
The Midwest is perfectly situated in the coming years. It will not be over 100 every day of the summer like the Southwest or the South.
St Louis is expected to have weather like Dallas by 2050. Don’t ask what Dallas’ weather is supposed to be like.
https://crowtherlab.pageflow.io/cities-of-the-future-visualizing-climate-change-to-inspire-action#213121
This sounds so fun anon(tfo).
It’s had 50+ days over 110 degrees. Blowing past the old record.
Imagine it. 50 days over 110 degrees.
LMFAO.
Why would I make this shit up?
I guess I wouldn’t anon(tfo). Maybe you should look that shit up before you talk about Phoenix weather.
https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/phoenix-weather/2020/09/05/phoenix-august-summer-2020-hottest-history/5729955002/
July held the crown for the hottest month ever recorded in Phoenix, but its reign didn’t last long.
August quickly took the title for the hottest month on record in Phoenix since tracking began in 1896.
If that’s not enough, the unusually hot August pushed 2020 to the unfortunate title of being the hottest summer ever recorded.
August’s average of 99.1 degrees surpassed July’s in an all-time record average of 98.9 degrees in 2020, according to the National Weather Service in Phoenix.
“Typically July is one of the hotter months,” Isaac Smith, a meteorologist with the weather service, said. “On average, July is hotter than August. To see that August ended up beating July is pretty impressive.”
“I hear this a lot but our industrial base was devastated during that recession from which it hasnt recovered.”
This has been going on since 1980. Nationwide. It’s been a slow burn as the economy has transformed into an information one, away from manufacturing. Doesn’t mean Chicago still isn’t pretty big in manufacturing though. But nationwide it’s just 8% of the economy now.
It’s NEVER coming back.
Downtown didn’t suffer in 2000-2001 recession. It barely noticed it. Unlike in the Bay Area which was crushed as literally hundreds of thousands of people left.
“It’s NEVER coming back”
I’ll never understand why people like you so vigorously root against production returning to our country. It’s classic ignorance. If you have ever actually been in a factory, or plant, you’d understand it’s not a bunch of overweight beer guzzling midwesterners pulling a lever 8 hours a day like the media and liberal politicians like to describe it as. There are scientists, research and development departments, sales, marketing, complex machinery and equipment demanding educated workers to operate and repair. Entire ecosystems grow around manufacturing plants with huge wealth multipliers for society. Production, be it agricultural or industrial, is the true source of wealth for nations. Not selling insurance to each other. Not apps to send dick pics. Not information. Real, tangible, physical goods. It’s because of that wealth we can offer higher value services like legal, medical or creative, not in spite of.
“There are scientists, research and development departments, sales, marketing, complex machinery and equipment demanding educated workers to operate and repair. Entire ecosystems grow around manufacturing plants with huge wealth multipliers for society.”
Absolutely. And it’s why we need a dramatic liberalization of our immigration policies, to meet those demands.
“Not apps to send dick pics.”
————————–
The hell you say!
“It’s had 50+ days over 110 degrees. ”
Yes, quite awful, and, indeed, a new record.
And yet you make up bullshit like:
“temps averaged over 100 degrees for months”
Makes you sound like a Fox News infotainment personality. Or a Bern Bro.
“And yet you make up bullshit like:
“temps averaged over 100 degrees for months”
Makes you sound like a Fox News infotainment personality. Or a Bern Bro.”
They’re becoming increasing deranged and detached from wider reality as they retreat to their websites that confirm their biases and can’t differentiate bullshit on these sites from facts.
Anyone who doesn’t understand prima facie that a statement like “temps averaged over 100 degrees for months” is ridiculous has a low bullshit radar.
Not even sure temps would ever average over 100 degrees for months in Oman.
Hate to break it to you, but the future is going to be cold sabrina and there’s not a fucking thing humans can do to prevent it
“Not even sure temps would ever average over 100 degrees for months in Oman.”
With some very quick looking (ie, looking only at cities, and only a couple lists), the north end of the Gulf (Kuwait, Ahvaz, Iran) is quite a bit hotter, as measured by average temp, than Oman. But still not over 100 for whole months.
Hottest average temps appear to be Saharan, with Reggane, Algeria showing an average temp over 100 for all of July and August–as an average, not just in 2020.
“And yet you make up bullshit like:”
I didn’t “make it up” I confused the average temp with 110 degrees for nearly 2 months.
Lol!
I’m not a meteorologist. But you’re an asshole so you’re sitting on here carping on it snd calling it fake news when it’s nothing of the sort.
“I’ll never understand why people like you so vigorously root against production returning to our country.”
Why would you WANT to return to the factory? Because it was so fun Marko?
It reminds me of that cookie plant that shut down right when Trump came into office here in Chicago. Some people had worked there for 25 years. Their jobs were moved to Mexico. Because they went overseas, they were given retraining. 2 years of free college or whatever they wanted to become.
For the first time, many had an opportunity and they took it. They became nurses and whatever else.
Do they WANT their manufacturing job to come back if given other options?
I wish the media would find those people this year and ask them how it’s going.
Oh- and while we’re at it and bringing back manufacturing jobs, why don’t we all go work on the farm again? After World War II, 46% of Americans still worked on the farm.
Why doesn’t anyone complain about the farming jobs? They all went away.
And, oh, I actually HAVE been in a plant. Everything is computerized. And to do construction you need to know computers. Yeah, I know. That’s the reason it’s not coming back.
“Makes you sound like a Fox News infotainment personality. Or a Bern Bro.”
I take that as a compliment. Thanks!
“Oh- and while we’re at it and bringing back manufacturing jobs, why don’t we all go work on the farm again? After World War II, 46% of Americans still worked on the farm.
Why doesn’t anyone complain about the farming jobs? They all went away.”
Because except for very specialized cases, you can’t be profitable running 400 ac or milking 40 head like you could post WWII
“And, oh, I actually HAVE been in a plant. Everything is computerized. And to do construction you need to know computers. Yeah, I know. That’s the reason it’s not coming back.”
Sure you have…
Not everything in a plant is computerized. There are still plenty machining jobs that don’t even have a DRO.
Oh dear. People working 21st century manufacturing jobs!
Sabrina prefers rural meth-heads, shrieking under-employed childless feminists and violent black males running around peacefully protesting as their main activity.
Rather than worrying about Americans working, Sabrina should worry about the aforementioned not working and causing all kinds of evil and negative consequences for others and the economy.
“Sure you have…
Not everything in a plant is computerized. There are still plenty machining jobs that don’t even have a DRO.”
Yep. Have worked in the plant as well as in customer service taking the orders.
Shame on you JohnnyU.
Manufacturing is just 8% of the economy now. Why all the energy to “bring it back”? No one is spending all that energy to “bring back” the farming jobs or the coal mining jobs. Soon, many of the energy jobs will go away too. They’ll be replaced by others in renewable energy.
The American economy is dynamic. Why does everyone want to go “back”?
“People working 21st century manufacturing jobs!”
What are these HH? The ones Trump was going to “bring back” and never did?
Fewer manufacturing jobs now than when he came into office. Fewer coal mining jobs. The poor coal miners. They were lied to. They could have done the retraining years ago and moved on.
“Fewer manufacturing jobs now than when he came into office.”
I don’t think so – before the pandemic – though they’ve been on the rise since 2010
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP
“I don’t think so – before the pandemic”
Correct, but also a meaningfully lower %age of total (non-farm) jobs–
Feb-20 = 8.27%
Feb-10 = 8.83%
6.5% lower share.
““bring back” the farming jobs”
That’s a canard–the only way to increase farm employment is to decrease mechanization–to *actually* move backwards.
The way to “bring back” manufacturing is (would have been) to shift focus, like Japan and Germany, to higher value manufacturing–to move forward.
Of course, a lot of American manufacturing got killed by Wal-Mart’s (and others) “beat the other guy by a nickel per item, or you’re out as a supplier” where the ‘other guy’ was already sourcing overseas.
AND, this is an area where you can see the effect of the ’01 recession (which, yes, was compounded by 9/11):
US Manufacturing jobs:
Sep-00 = 17,230 (safely before the crash)
Sep-03 = 14,347 (after the drop stabilized)
Just posted my September update: http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2020/10/chicago-real-estate-market-update-september-home-sales-soar/
All those contracts I’ve been talking about started finally closing. Highest sales in 14 years and October should be another strong month. So the year could actually end at least on par with last year. And the condo market is not actually totally in the toilet either, though you’d be better off selling a SFH.
All those contracts I’ve been talking about started finally closing. Highest sales in 14 years and October should be another strong month. So the year “could actually end at least on par with last year. And the condo market is not actually totally in the toilet either, though you’d be better off selling a SFH.”
Thanks Gary.
What does the inventory look like? Seems as low as ever right now.
That’s in my update. As I explain I’m doing my own calculation of months of supply since the canned graph is hugely misleading. SFH inventory way down but condo inventory about the same as last year.
Thanks Gary.
2 months for SFH. Wow. That’s insane. That’s why if you want a single family home under certain price points (like under $1 million) in some neighborhoods there is absolutely NOTHING on the market.
It’s also why so many buyers are looking in the suburbs. Inventory is low there too but at least there is more at certain price points.
6.2 months for condos doesn’t seem overly problematic. Looking at your inventory chart, it’s crazy how high it got just as the bust was hitting in 2008-2009.
That’s why those looking for price DECREASES on Chicago properties are going to be waiting for years (if not longer) because there’s simply not enough inventory for there to be “deals.” Supply and demand are going to keep those prices elevated.
“ That’s why those looking for price DECREASES on Chicago properties are going to be waiting for years (if not longer) because there’s simply not enough inventory for there to be “deals.” Supply and demand are going to keep those prices elevated.”
Do you even read the properties posted? The last 4 all have had price cuts.
You and JoeZ need to do a better job coordinating your shilling
“All those contracts I’ve been talking about started finally closing. Highest sales in 14 years and October should be another strong month. So the year could actually end at least on par with last year. And the condo market is not actually totally in the toilet either, though you’d be better off selling a SFH.“
Thanks Gary
Could you either post the source data or chart the last 3 years rolling total (by year)?
You’re looking for the inventory data? You could email me glucido at lucidrealty.com No really good place to post it and I’d rather not just post it anyway.
Hi Gary – No – Was looking for the annual aggregate sales figures. You’ve got the MoM, but I’m not having much luck extrapolating the data
Thanks Gary
Plotting out the last 4 years cumulative sales data, the rate of change doesn’t seem to be that significant across J, J & A. Sept in 2020 higher but not enough to pull forward the lag from earlier in the year
Next 2 months will be critical
“Do you even read the properties posted? The last 4 all have had price cuts.”
Price cuts aren’t price declines, JohnnyU. Too much demand and not enough properties for this to be 2009-2012 when people were buying that $500,000 duplex up for $325,000.
It’s not going to happen.
2 months of inventory on single family homes. That is CITYWIDE. Think about how many homes are for sale on the south and west side where that buyer looking for a SFH in Roscoe Village isn’t even looking. My gosh. In some neighborhoods, SFH inventory is probably less than a month.
Sorry to disappoint everyone.
Only way you get price declines is with excess inventory. Could see some of those in the luxury condo market as there is more than a year of inventory there. Also in luxury single family homes on the North Shore and in towns with too many of those- like Hinsdale.
And if you’re interested in buying a condo in the Vista, the developers would probably give you a deal.
Maybe you had a different Econ class but a restricted supply should cause prices to rise.
Small sample size and all that but these properties are cutting pricing and seem to be getting PP + realtor fees
The rest of your strawman argument is more JoeZ BS
“these properties … seem to be getting PP + realtor fees”
re-sale SFHs around North Center last 6 months are mostly PP+6%, or lower. And that’s even with 2010, 2012 vintage purchases. And some *older*
Yes, of course there are exceptions. Here’s one:
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/4148-N-Leavitt-St-60618/home/13390861
2012-pp + 22% (in real dollars, +8%) Accepted an offer within a week, and still took a little less than they’re initial ask.
“Maybe you had a different Econ class but a restricted supply should cause prices to rise.”
Yep.
Just so it’s clear to all the housing bears out there, I’m restricted in what properties I can feature here on Cribchatter because so many are going under contract so quickly, I don’t have time to post about them before that happens.
Therefore, I’m left with featuring properties that are more unique, or luxury, or are in the out of favorite category like downtown condos.
The market remains strong this fall. Strong sales will remain through the end of the year.
Without inventory, you have a bull market.
As JohnnyU has said, it’s basic economics.
Sorry bears. Prices aren’t going down like the last recession. This isn’t 2009. But renters are certainly sitting pretty this year. I hope all of them are renegotiating great leases at lower prices.
Anybody see this piece from Forbes?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/petertaylor/2020/10/11/covid-19-has-changed-the-housing-market-forever-heres-where-americans-are-moving-and-why/
“From this perspective, COVID is accelerating demographic trends that were already in place before the pandemic, especially when it comes to businesses seeking places to expand that are pro-growth, low-tax, politically stable, and stacked with an educated work force in advanced degrees like engineering, math, technology, business, and law. Austin, Salt Lake City, Raleigh, Charlotte, Nashville, and San Jose all top the list in 2020 in this respect according to CoStar, with occupied office growth expected to exceed 10% over the next five years. Dallas, Miami, Phoenix, Atlanta, San Antonio, and Boston aren’t far behind—all expected to grow by 8%+ as of Q3 2020 according to CoStar.”
“Not a single city in California or the Pacific Northwest ranked anywhere near the top of anyone’s “Best Of” lists in terms of where Americans are moving, which suggests that the effects of COVID’s first flight from coastal cities last March may be fossilizing permanently. New York City, Long Island, northern New Jersey, Honolulu, Chicago, and Philadelphia were also conspicuously in the basement, reinforcing America’s net emotional migration away from high-priced real estate markets as well as high-tax, high-lockdown urban locations.”
““Maybe you had a different Econ class but a restricted supply should cause prices to rise.”
Yep.”
Hope the ride on the short yellow bus was fun!
This is where you keep making ship up out of whole cloth
The market has not caught up to the previous 3 years the velocity isn’t as high as I would have expected (Tho its higher right now than the last 3 years) with push effect of covid
If there was all this pent up demand, even marginal properties should be seeing increases – they’re not, they’re sitting for a long time and are dropping pricing (eg – Printers Row property)
“Without inventory, you have a bull market” – This is dumb even for you. There’s no bull market if Demand is weak. With your level of schilling that would make JoeZ blush, why you’re not levered to the hilt in Chicago RE, is beyond me.
Probably cause you realize at least on a subconscious level your FOS.
“Sorry bears. Prices aren’t going down like the last recession. This isn’t 2009”
Prices don’t have to go down to ’09 levels – Near zero level appreciation is going to absolutely slaughter some product types and hurt a lot of middle class folks
Also you seem to be a really big fan of a bifurcated city – Playground for the wealthy and a holding pen for the poor
“If there was all this pent up demand, even marginal properties should be seeing increases – they’re not, they’re sitting for a long time and are dropping pricing (eg – Printers Row property)”
Sigh. JohnnyU. Look around your suburb. What is selling on your block? The single family homes.
I can’t even write about them on this site because they go under contract within days. Super hot in Logan Square, Avondale, Jefferson Park, South Shore, Woodlawn, Hyde Park, McKinley Park. I haven’t looked in Galewood lately but given how hot Oak Park is, I’m assuming it’s similar.
“Also you seem to be a really big fan of a bifurcated city – Playground for the wealthy and a holding pen for the poor”
Like most cities globally, Chicago has gotten richer over the past 20 years.
We’ve already talked on this site about the studies showing the city neighborhoods in the 1970s, 1990s and recently and the level of middle class in each.
The north side is no longer middle class. It’s upper middle class. Still middle class neighborhoods on the west and south sides though. But that has pushed the middle class out of the city to the suburbs for years.
The developers are building $500,000 new homes in Bronzeville and $750,000 new homes in Woodlawn. Is that “middle class” even with the lowest mortgage rates ever? No.
So, yes, low inventory is pushing prices up in many neighborhoods. Great for those owners. It’s not with condos, where there is an excess of inventory, mostly downtown. But if you have a condo in Logan Square, you’re not in a bad place. Not at all.
Chicagoland has rarely seen “no appreciation.” It happened for about 5 years in the mid-80s. We’re pretty steady at the 1-3% gains a year except for the housing bust.
Prices cannot go down with housing inventory at these levels. You need excess inventory.
For those who don’t understand economics, just look at the rental market. There is now excess inventory. Prices are coming down. Supply and demand. This is the opposite problem, by the way, that was apparent in 2009. Back then, there were few new apartments but too many condos.
“New York City, Long Island, northern New Jersey, Honolulu, Chicago, and Philadelphia were also conspicuously in the basement, reinforcing America’s net emotional migration away from high-priced real estate markets as well as high-tax, high-lockdown urban locations.”
Nah. People are leaving the urban core to get a backyard. That means they’re leaving NYC and moving to New Jersey. Sales the hottest in years in all of the tri-state suburban markets. Lots of those in the dense urban areas were traumatized by the lockdowns. They heard ambulances going back and forth during March and April. They want to escape that.
Many would have ultimately moved to the suburbs because they’re priced out of buying in the city. If you can’t afford close to a million dollars, you aren’t buying a single family home in Roscoe Village, for instance. Or most of Southport. Heck, even in all of Lakeview. Very few houses under $1 million now. And you simply get more for your money in the suburbs.
If you and your spouse can work from home, why not get a big yard for much less of a price?
People are making different choices.
But that being said, Millennials and GenZ will still move where the jobs are. They just will. And that’s Chicago, Boston, NYC, Philly etc.
Chicago just nabbed another corporate headquarters. The Salesforce building is under construction. Companies are still looking for space in Fulton Market.
Lincoln Yards is still moving forward. Outside of NYC, I can’t think of any other city that is building a multi-billion development like that one over the next decade.
“But that being said, Millennials and GenZ will still move where the jobs are. They just will. And that’s Chicago, Boston, NYC, Philly etc.”
You still don’t get it. The jobs are at their computer screens for many of them.
Once remote work becomes normalized which it will be by the time this is over, it won’t just go back to the way it was. And there will be fewer of those jobs as senior management will learn that do they _really need_ X number of people in HR (for instance) now that people remote work?
This will wind up being bad for white collar workers even if it feels liberating now as out of sight out of mind will take over and there will need to be less of them. Plus they can be paid less. They are already doing this with workers leaving the Bay Area and working remote from cheaper locations.
“Sigh. JohnnyU. Look around your suburb. What is selling on your block? The single family homes.
What’s selling in my CITY? Anything over say $700k is either recently Remolded or at least had a fluff and buff is moving pretty quick. Plenty of older homes that arent on trend/havent had a remodel are sitting. Theses are really nice. solid, well kept older homes (1900-20’s) but have oak cabinets, non-open concept, color
$500k> moving in a heartbeat as long as its priced remotely correct. Poor conditioned ones are teardowns/major overhaul.
“I can’t even write about them on this site because they go under contract within days. Super hot in Logan Square, Avondale, Jefferson Park, South Shore, Woodlawn, Hyde Park, McKinley Park. I haven’t looked in Galewood lately but given how hot Oak Park is, I’m assuming it’s similar.”
Have you even looked at anything in Galewood? Most have set for a fairly long time and are cutting pricing
Do you do any research before you bleat your nonsense or do you survey the multiple cats in your garden apartment for their opinion?
Sabrina, Bob’s comments re: the current – and probably permanent – impact of the pandemic on remote work, and the related impact on the traditional (high cost) white collar/professional job meccas like NYC, Chicago, etc., are hard to dismiss.
My office has been sitting empty since March, and I have no intention of returning to it anytime soon (maybe next summer?). That’s in a leading second tier market. The office-wide email yesterday, offering tickets to the hot new museum exhibit? Tempting, but I have no interest in strolling around indoors with a mask on for pleasure. Doing so for a necessity like groceries is one thing, but culture or recreation is another story (call me a dilettante if you will, but it’s reality). Lots of cities, from big to small, have done a great job with expanded outdoor dining these past few months, but even with some creative measures (partial tents, heaters, etc.), I don’t see how the urban independent restaurant industry makes it through this winter. On a Zoom with a couple dozen colleagues from my Chicago office yesterday, I don’t think a single one was in the office. And I doubt they’re hitting the Art Institute on their days “off”.
“Chicagoland has rarely seen “no appreciation.””
Rising exactly at inflation isn’t “appreciation”.
C-S Chicago:
Jan-91 = 73.84
Jan-20 = 144.57
Jan-91 + CPI = 141.52
that’s an average of 7 bips per year above inflation. aka “no appreciation”.
anon(tfo): I said 1-3% a year. That has been the normal appreciation for like 100 years.
It’s also the normal for the rest of the country but the housing bubble shattered that perception. And now, apparently, it’s convinced you that something higher a year is somehow “normal.”
It’s not.
Housing is a crappy asset. Stocks have outperformed it for all of time.
But that’s also why many are worried. Housing prices starting to spike again which isn’t healthy. Home builders raising prices nearly weekly. Speculation starting to mount again in some states. We don’t want it to overheat again.
“Do you do any research before you bleat your nonsense or do you survey the multiple cats in your garden apartment for their opinion?”
Why are you such a sexist jerk JohnnyU?
I’m asking in all seriousness.
Does your wife and/or daughters know how sexist you are? How do they put up with that in 2020?
Or ANY other woman such as those you may work with or encounter at a store?
Why are you on this site JohnnyU when you don’t seem to care about talking about the properties (just like helmethofer, birds of a feather)?
Try and be decent and kind instead of a jerk all the time. I don’t know if you can do it. Usually those who are jerks anonymously online are just, well, jerks.
“Plus they can be paid less. They are already doing this with workers leaving the Bay Area and working remote from cheaper locations.”
The tech companies must do this or else it is too disruptive. It doesn’t make sense to pay someone in marketing at Apple $250,000 when they live in Nashville. No one in Nashville in marketing makes that. The standard of living is much, much lower.
So that worker isn’t making “less” actually. Their housing costs will drop by like 60%.
Tech companies mostly have offices in all of the larger cities anyway. If you leave the Bay Area and move to Chicago, you’ll make what everyone else in the Chicago office makes. Tech companies opened those other offices to have access to more talent and to pay less.
Amazon is saving a ton of money by hiring all those workers for that new Nashville HQ2.
“This will wind up being bad for white collar workers even if it feels liberating now as out of sight out of mind will take over and there will need to be less of them.”
Companies were already overstaffed going into this recession. There had been 10 years of good times. There was no need to get rid of the dead weight. There were few layoffs. Recessions always clear out companies that have gotten bloated.
This time will not be any different.
If you talk to any of the hotel companies, who have laid off a ton of staff in management and elsewhere, they will say they are now much leaner and the cost cutting will stick even when they’re back to operating at full speed.
“Why are you such a sexist jerk JohnnyU?”
I’m going to go out on a limb here & suppose it’s because you aren’t a real estate professional nor even a local amateur but rather a Google (Alphabet Inc) bot.
“Why are you such a sexist jerk JohnnyU?”
You are fake ass big tech bot bullshit who can’t ever reveal where you actually went to school at or grew up from because you’re a facade and not a real person, “Sabrina” hahaha You & your bay area women can love the cats the mostest.
“I’m going to go out on a limb here & suppose it’s because you aren’t a real estate professional nor even a local amateur but rather a Google (Alphabet Inc) bot.”
Whut???
Lol.
This is a new one.
I thought I was he who cannot be named?
How do you have a bot run a website for 13 years?
But, if you’re right, then you ALL are talking to a bot for some unknown reason. And JohnnyU is wasting his time being a sexist jerk to a bot as well.
That makes sense.
“Why are you such a sexist jerk JohnnyU?
I’m asking in all seriousness.“
I’m not and I’m not going to get too worked up by your incorrect opinion
“ Why are you on this site JohnnyU when you don’t seem to care about talking about the properties (just like helmethofer, birds of a feather)?”
This is exactly why I don’t give a damn what you think. Other than countering your inane opinions, I do generally comment on the properties. Throwing in the comp to HH is what a 3 year old Having a temper tantrum would do,
You resorting to straw men, moving the goal posts Or flat out lying highlights the weakness in your opinions.
“Try and be decent and kind instead of a jerk all the time. I don’t know if you can do it. Usually those who are jerks anonymously online are just, well, jerks.”
I think it’s funny that you’d rather claim victim-hood Vs bolster you’re argument. In a sense I can see why that easier.
” that new Nashville HQ2″
Wot??
If 5000 Nashville area jobs = HQ2, then what is Chicago (with however many jobs already and 5,600 new ones announced last month)? HQ1.5?
What about the announced HQ2 in Arlington? Is that now HQ1.1?
And before you say “Those Chicago jobs are largely warehouse jobs”–they are in Nashville, too:
“Amazon Nashville will ultimately create 5,000 jobs in Nashville. These new jobs include a mix of technical roles such as Software Development Engineers and non-technical roles for candidates at all skill and education levels.”
https://www.amazon.jobs/en/locations/nashville-area-tn
“What about the announced HQ2 in Arlington? Is that now HQ1.1?”
As you recall, anon(tfo) there were THREE winners of the HQ2 contest. NYC, Arlington and Nashville.
All three were getting jobs that averaged $100,000 a year.
Chicago has not gotten those jobs from Amazon.
Every major city has thousands of Amazon jobs now due to their fleet of distribution facilities. Chicago, however, DOES seem to be one of their bigger warehouse hubs, probably because of the rail/freight/air possibilities here.
There’s a reason Uber put Uber Freight here.
“I’m not and I’m not going to get too worked up by your incorrect opinion”
You’re not a sexist? Or a jerk? Or both?
You’re always saying sexist comments to me on this site JohnnyU. It’s par for the course when a man can’t handle not being in control when a woman DOES have the control such as the case here.
You really need to look at yourself and your life, man. Find out why you’re so angry and such a jerk about a topic that is generally a happy one: Chicago housing, which is fantastic. It’s one of the greatest cities on earth. Yet you come on here day after day angry and being a jerk.
I don’t get it.
Oh- and only a sexist would say I’m being a “victim.”
You DO say sexist comments at me. Or are you denying that too JohnnyU?
“THREE winners of the HQ2 contest. NYC, Arlington and Nashville.”
Uh, it’s an “Operations Center of Excellence”:
https://press.aboutamazon.com/news-releases/news-release-details/amazon-selects-new-york-city-and-northern-virginia-new
It’s a good thing for Nashville, but it ain’t “HQ2” (not that any of it really is).
Right. They made the announcement at the same time as the other two. It’s a big coup for Nashville.
They’re building a big complex right on the river. The jobs are over $100,000 a year jobs. Will transform their downtown if they actually hire it out as they implied in the original press release.
Will make them one of the largest employers in town, I believe.
The actual HQ2 “sweepstakes” was a lie from the beginning. They never intended to put all those jobs in one location.
Hence the three cities.
At least Alphabet and Facebook are more honest with what they’re doing. They’ve had “secondary” offices around the country for many years some with thousands of employees and they’ve never made a big deal out of it.
Sabrina has no conception of how the world has irretrievably changed from this pandemic. All she seems capable of is extrapolating recent history to the present.
There is no way in hell given the fiscal condition of Illinois and Chicago that real estate valuations hold firm.
Sabrina are all of these northside GZ whities paying all of the RE taxes going to enroll their kids in CPS?
You’re not a sexist? Or a jerk? Or both?
Maybe you meant a sexy jerk?
“You’re always saying sexist comments to me on this site JohnnyU. It’s par for the course when a man can’t handle not being in control when a woman DOES have the control such as the case here.”
I’m seeing a lot of projection, victim mentality and delusion
“You really need to look at yourself and your life, man. Find out why you’re so angry and such a jerk about a topic that is generally a happy one: Chicago housing, which is fantastic. It’s one of the greatest cities on earth. Yet you come on here day after day angry and being a jerk.
I don’t get it.”
I don’t understand why you feel the need to get so personal? I get you don’t like getting proven wrong daily, no one like feeling stupid. Maybe the solution to your feelings of inadequacy are facing inward? Maybe there’s some stressors in your life that are causing you to lash out at others as a defense mechanism. Is there something that you are hiding?
Oh- and only a sexist would say I’m being a “victim.”
You DO say sexist comments at me. Or are you denying that too JohnnyU?
Look am MEEEEE! I’m a victim again. Only someone not grounded in reality would think you wern’t pulling the victim card!
If you being a shill and commenting on your cats is sexist in your opinion, we’ll that’s your opinion ad as I mentioned, not one that holds very much weight
Ps playing Dr Freud is fun!
“Sabrina has no conception of how the world has irretrievably changed from this pandemic. All she seems capable of is extrapolating recent history to the present.”
You mean, that prices are soaring because there’s no inventory and everyone wants to buy something with record low mortgage rates?
That “change” from the pandemic?
Sorry Bears. Your doom and gloom can’t work if there’s no inventory. And there isn’t. So prices are up double digits all over the city and suburbs.
Ba ha ha ha.
Doesn’t anyone understand basic economics around here?
“Doesn’t anyone understand basic economics around here?”
I don’t. But maybe you can explain this economic conundrum:
Redfin published a story (Aug. 27) blaring:
“San Francisco has seen a greater increase in price drops than any other U.S. metro, with the share of sellers slashing prices more than doubling from a year ago…. A quarter (24.5%) of San Francisco-area home sellers cut their list prices during the four weeks ending Aug 16.”
https://www.redfin.com/news/real-estate-prices-fall-san-francisco/
The reporter attributes the price drops to the surge of inventory, which soared by ~ 75% YoY.
Surprisingly, she reports that the metro with the second largest percentage of price drops is Chicago, despite the fact that Active Listings in the Chicago MSA were then (and are still today) down ~ 25% YoY.
Why are Chicagoans lowering their ask price when supply has decreased? Is it due to realtors overpricing inventory necessitating later price drops?
The reporter asserts that this metric—the share of MLS listings with “Price Drops”—is a leading indicator of median sale prices. We shall see if that proves true.
Here’s Redfin data on ‘Active Listings’ and ‘Price Drops’ (as of Oct. 4) for San Francisco, DuPage, Cook, and Lake counties. (I cite their 12-week moving-averages.)
“Active Listings”:
San Fran County: up 100% Year-over-Year
DuPage County: down 30% YoY
Lake County: down 40% YoY
Cook County: down 20% YoY
———————————————————
“Price Drops”:
San Fran County: up 5.1% YoY
DuPage County: up 6.3% YoY
Lake County: up 5.8% YoY
Cook County: up 4.8% YoY
San Fran leads the nation with the biggest inventory increase (up 100%) and, not surprisely, ranks among the leaders in regard to price drops.
Chicago’s inventory decline roughly equals the nation as a whole (down 26%). But Chicago ranks near the top, alongside San Fran, with regard to “The Percent of Active Listings with Price Drops.”
Economic theory says reduced supply drives prices higher, induces sellers to raise their ask price. And yet the data says Chicago is experiencing both a record-setting decrease in supply and a record setting increase of price drops—again, not by a huge margin but enough to rank among the leaders.
What accounts for this? Bad data? Too little data? Covid lockdown? Bad politics/taxes? Dumb realtors overvaluing market price? Desperate sellers? I dunno.
https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/
San Francisco County = 880,000 people
DuPage County = 923,000 people
Lake County = 700,000 people
Cook County = 5.2 million people
The problem with data like this is you don’t know what they’re looking at. If a listing is cancelled and relisted at a lower price I doubt they are catching that. What I look at is sale price as a % of original list price but that suffers from the same problem. But at least I can look at the trend. I can tell you that that % is up like 1.5% over the last year or so. It also tends to be seasonal and this year is kind of screwed up seasonality-wise so who the hell knows what’s going on.
“Redfin published a story (Aug. 27) blaring:”
We know what is happening with condos which, yes, have bigger inventory so they’ve been cutting prices in the downtown. More downtown condos on the market than in Lakeview or Logan Square so it skews the market.
That’s why Rodkin looks at neighborhood data.
“Being proven wrong daily.”
That’s the kind of obnoxious comment that makes it hard to appreciate your opinions.
Gary I replied to your comment but it went into limbo, never appeared, probably because it included an unacceptable hyperlink (to Redfin), which I’m omitting this time.
Like you I’ve got questions about Redfin’s data regarding delistings, relistings, etc. That said, they offer eight years of price drop data, which I looked at for the four counties cited above. The numbers, when viewed graphically, via the link I had provided, show several things.
DuPage touched a new high percentage of Price Drops in July 2020, 37.4%, and then retouched the same level in Sept 2020—the biggest number in the 8-year data set.
The chart that I included (and that you can easily make yourself) compared the percentage of price drops in DuPage, Cook, Lake and San Fran counties over the last 8 years. DuPage and San Fran have been hitting slightly ‘higher highs’ in the last three years, DuPage touching 37.4% in July and Sept 2020, San Fran peaked at 24.9% July 2020, a much lower absolute number than DuPage but that’s typical.
The latest data (as of Oct. 11) says price drops ticked up slightly in both DuPage and San Fran. But of course SF has a good excuse for that fact: they’ve got a huge increase of supply.
Why do you think sellers in supply-constrained DuPage, Lake, and Cook counties are lowering their ask prices too? Everything was pushed forward, price cuts too, since they’re seasonal.
But it looks to me that Chicago-area sellers badly overestimated the worth of their homes and are now frantically lowering their asking price in order to sell before winter arrives. What do you think?
“October should be another strong month. So the year could actually end at least on par with last year.”
Are you talking about the MSA or city? I’ll take unders on both.
You wrote at your blog that Sept home sales rose 31.6% over last year. Redfin sez September Chicago MSA totals rose 34% YoY.
Homes sold in Chicago metro (Jan-Sep 2020) = 72,270
Homes sold in Chicago metro (Jan-Sep 2019) = 73,512
That’s very close. Things look good at that level.
Redfin sez sales in the city of Chicago rose 27% Sept YoY.
Homes sold in City of Chicago (Jan-Sep 2020) = 22,346
Homes sold in City of Chicago (Jan-Sep 2019) = 24,404
The city’s YTD shortfall looks worse than the MSA’s, too big a shortfall I think to overcome in the last 3 months, and the data as of Oct. 11 doesn’t suggest a forthcoming surge. I’d include a link to a chart depicting the city’s totals but it’d prevent my comment from appearing.
I wonder if Sabrina’s spam filter requires moderation the first time you post a link. I know two links from anyone will put you in moderation.
My monthly update is definitely focused on the city of Chicago only. One way I like to look at it is rolling 12 months. On that basis we are down 5.4% through September. So, if we just match the 4th quarter of last year we would be down 5.4% for the year. But we should beat the 4th quarter of last year with all the pending sales.
The other problem with % price drops is that you don’t know the magnitude of those price drops. All I can tell you is that for Du Page county September closings were at 96.6% of original list, which is 1.2% higher than last September.
Is it just me or does it seem like a lot of inventory is hitting the market in October?
I’m also curious about Oct. inventory. Is it rising quickly?
Looking only at Redfin, and at the whole city, the last 14 days number is 42.5% of the last 30 for Active/U-C, and 49.5% for Active only. That may be high for October, but certainly doesn’t indicate rapidly rising inventory.
Also doesn’t account for de-/re-listing–when I looked, the ‘newest’ listing has been listed for 15 of the last 18 months.
With WFH being the new normal, Gov Fatfuck and Lightfoot talking tax hikes along with the CTU shenanigans, might be a little more than most city residents w/ children can handle.
If there’s an increase, might just be the first wave
I do not think more listings coming on the market is a bad thing for sellers. Demand seems strong in Chicago and burbs.
I have noticed very tight inventory all year. In my opinion, there may just be a shift with when sellers and buyers are willing to transact. You do not necessarily need to switch schools midyear. Everything is online, so what does it matter if you move in December 2020 vs. May 2021 when school ends.
“I do not think more listings coming on the market is a bad thing for sellers. Demand seems strong in Chicago and burbs.”
Depends on the product type/distribution
Sucks if most new listings are condo’s and you’re a condo owner looking to go to a SFH
Indeed that is true. I have not noticed a glut of condos. Primarily more houses coming on the market. I really only look NW side tho. Not sure about some of the other “more hip” areas, such a old town, wicker park, Logan square, Lakeview, etc.
Here is one that is on the market by me as of today. Curious to see what it goes for. Bones seem decent. Could use some updating and much better decor.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/4845-N-Washtenaw-Ave-60625/unit-4/home/26792805?utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy_link&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link
“With WFH being the new normal, Gov Fatfuck and Lightfoot talking tax hikes along with the CTU shenanigans, might be a little more than most city residents w/ children can handle.
It’s not just that it’s also the crime. I know a 1%er family living in the GZ who have been shocked by the uptick in crime they’ve seen–they don’t want their kids around that. One spouse has deep family roots here though so that might be a move to the burbs.
What’s the allure of city living again with everything shut down? And it’s not like once the pandemic is under control things will magically reopen back up & go back to the way they were overnight, if ever.
Suburbs are HAWT.
https://patch.com/illinois/winnetka/new-suburbanites-fuel-rising-winnetka-luxury-real-estate-market
[patch article]
Looking at what’s selling in the big W, it looks pretty bi-modal–lots of stuff around $800-900k, and lots of stuff around $1.5m, and of course the high-end.
So, you have sort of three groups of possible city-leavers: those who might have bought (or are selling) a larger condo or smaller SFH in the $800k range, mainly North Center/WLV SFH folks in the $1.5m area, and the $2.5m+ who (imo) have always had a portion flow to the North Shore.
“Even when this pandemic is in our rearview mirror”
Quote above from two of the local Winnetka brokers (doesn’t specify which). Either they don’t know what that turn of phrase means, or, well, I suppose the alternative is even less flattering.
“they don’t know what that turn of phrase means”
What do you think it means?
Tehgoogle indicates that it has two reasonably oft-used meanings, but I don’t know that I’ve ever used it for the “catching up to you” one (tho I understand it), rather I think of it like this use:
https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/PastInTheRearViewMirror
Without going too deep into the etymological rabbit hole, I’d say that the conventional meaning is that something is behind us or we’ve moved past something or something’s in the past, as in, over. And the fact that the brokers started the statement with “Even” just holds a candle to their shame.
“I’m also curious about Oct. inventory. Is it rising quickly?”
More inventory in downtown condos. Everything else is record low inventory.
This is true in every city. Naperville. Springfield. Champaign. Peoria. St. Louis. Milwaukee. Indianapolis.
Nationwide inventory for existing single family homes is just 2.7 months.
Seen on a current listing description of a house on the North Shore:
“Have your children attend school in-person and save tens of thousands a year on private school”
Bahahaha, savage….
“Have your children attend school in-person and save tens of thousands a year on private school”
Fair point as to the tuition savings (leaving aside the question of actual admission to privates), but does a would-be buyer have a potential claim against that broker and homeowner in the event that in-person learning at the public schools serving that North Shore house get shutdown?