Market Conditions: Chicago Finally Tops the Case Shiller 20-City Index as Hottest Market
As other major metros come down off their red hot pandemic highs, Chicago, which has lagged for years at the bottom of the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller 20 largest metros index for price appreciation, has finally come in on top.
In May, Chicagoland single family homes rose 4.6% year-over-year, to top the list, followed by Cleveland and the New York metro.
From Corelogic’s Chief Economist Selma Hepp:
Chicago, Cleveland and New York were the three markets with largest annual appreciation, up by 4.6%, 3.9% and 3.5% year over year, respectively. Miami ranked fourth, followed by Charlotte, North Carolina.
During the pandemic, Chicago posted some of the nation’s lowest home price appreciation, and the recent strength there reflects the region’s relative affordability. San Francisco and Seattle both continued to post annual declines, down by a respective 11% and 11.3% in May, but annual decreases in both metros pivoted and showed smaller declines than in the previous month.
Chicago also came in second, after Cleveland, on the monthly gain list.
Cleveland and Chicago posted the nation’s largest monthly gains, at 2.7% and 2.3% respectively, while Denver, Las Vegas and Phoenix showed the smallest gains of less than 1%. And while Boston and Cleveland saw outsized increases this May, the gains in slower-growing metros are in line with seasonal increases that are historically recorded between April and May.
Chicago’s diverse housing market, with homes available at all pricing tiers, low, medium and luxury, also worked to its advantage.
While Chicago led with the largest increase across price tiers, New York’s high tier posted the biggest increase in prices across metros and tiers, up by 2.8% from April.
From Crain’s:
Because Cleveland ranks second on the list with price growth of 3.9%, Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, deemed this month’s report “the Revenge of the Rust Belt.” It doesn’t quite hold up, as megacity New York follows Cleveland with 3.5% growth, and after that is Miami at 3.4%.
Here’s a list of the gains since the pandemic began in March 2020.
Biggest winning metro areas:
- Tampa up 63.8%
- Miami up 63.12%
- Charlotte up 54.25%
- Phoenix up 54.23%
- San Diego up 52.12%
- Dallas up 50.8%
- Atlanta up 49.5%
Worst performing metro areas:
- San Francisco up 27.6%
- Minneapolis up 29.49%
- Washington DC up 29.93%
- Portland, OR up 32.74%
- Chicago up 33.54%
- Detroit up 37.12%
- Las Vegas up 37.19%
It surprised me to see Las Vegas was up “only” 37.19% but prices are down 0.35% year-to-date and off 9.13% from the peak. Chicago hasn’t declined (yet) so it’s at its peak pricing since the pandemic started. Chicago prices up 5.73% year-to-date.
This is May data. Will Chicago keep it’s crown through this summer?
Will a huge wave of people priced out of other cities eventually drive up prices though the roof in Chicago?
Are the suburbs providing all the C-S gains?
“Are the suburbs providing all the C-S gains?”
It’s the SFH index. So ‘burbs (ex Lake County) are “most of” whatever is happening on it.
Condo index is up 2.83%, May over May.
Will articles this week about downtown Chicago “sinking” affect prices?
Final line – no apostrophe needed in “its.”
Sorry – I’m a professional writer/editor.
“Will articles this week about downtown Chicago “sinking” affect prices?”
What articles?
The land under downtown Chicago is sinking?
“Are the suburbs providing all the C-S gains?”
Does it need to? Single family home prices in Chicago are up big too. I can’t even cover many of them on this blog because they go under contract so quickly.
“Will a huge wave of people priced out of other cities eventually drive up prices though the roof in Chicago?”
Don’t know. But those who moved to Arizona and are now dealing with that terrible weather may eventually have second thoughts.
“But those who moved to Arizona and are now dealing with that terrible weather may eventually have second thoughts.”
So who moves to Arizona (many, but not all parts) and is then surprised that it’s hot there? Never could understand why anyone would want to live in the hotter areas. And where will they get their water? I ruled that state out long ago.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/environment/ct-chicago-buildings-sinking-underground-climate-change-20230726-va67jihqrjhxranwjuw4zelsbi-story.html
“So who moves to Arizona (many, but not all parts) and is then surprised that it’s hot there?”
Millions of people Gary. Many go only in the winter and think it’s lovely. They also think, “how bad can the 100s be? We have air conditioning.” Same thing happens with Florida, though, right? People don’t realize how bad the summer weather is there either. And that’s why there are the half backs.
Who are the millions moving to Nevada right now? Terrible water situation and heat there too.
“What articles?
“The land under downtown Chicago is sinking?”
Yes:
https://lmgtfy.app/?q=The+land+under+downtown+Chicago+is+sinking%3F
“So who moves to Arizona (many, but not all parts) and is then surprised that it’s hot there? Never could understand why anyone would want to live in the hotter areas. And where will they get their water? I ruled that state out long ago.”
Drunks that run a Chicago RE blog
“Drunks that run a Chicago RE blog”
Pathetic. Once a bully, always a bully.
JohnnyU, quit your bullsh*t with calling Sabrina a drunk. At best it’s incredibly rude and insensitive, and at worst, libel.
We get it—you think any optimism around Chicago real estate is crazy and any interpretation of data in that direction flawed. Leave it there. Drop the ad hominem attacks.
Ok – it’s not libel, CC. He can call her anything he likes. He’s only commenting on a blog – there’s no chance for libel here. But it is rude and obnoxious.
People need to learn how to disagree more politely.