Market Conditions: Chicago Home Sales Fall Another 21.6% in October
The year-over-year drop in sales continues in Chicago. Median price is also falling.
From Crain’s:
In the city of Chicago, home sales fell 21.6% in October, to 1,535 from 1,959 in October 2007.
The median price in the city of Chicago was $260,000 in October, down 9.1% compared with $285,900 in October 2007.
“Realtors are seeing more resistance from sellers with regard to reduction of price,” David Hanna, president of the Chicago Assn. of Realtors, said in the release.
“We are seeing a steady decline in inventory as sellers remove unsold homes from the market. This trend reflects a growing awareness that sellers are reaching their thresholds for downward price pressure.”
The numbers represent sales of both new and existing homes.
Local home sales down 17.7% in October [Crain’s Chicago Business, Nov 24, 2008]
“This trend reflects a growing awareness that sellers are reaching their thresholds for downward price pressure.”
– Naive optimism that prices will rebound…so silly. In real dollar terms, it will only get worse. Looks like Chicago had solidly joined the party now, Miami says welcome.
“Realtors are seeing more resistance from sellers with regard to reduction of price,” David Hanna, president of the Chicago Assn. of Realtors, said in the release. “We are seeing a steady decline in inventory as sellers remove unsold homes from the market. This trend reflects a growing awareness that sellers are reaching their thresholds for downward price pressure.”
What a crock! I don’t see a steady decline in inventory. In fact, in many communities inventories are rising. And sellers can reach their threshold but they’re not going to sell their house.
anectodal, but was in wilmette this weekend. In some areas, almost every street had an open house sign. A place I am looking at in lincoln square just dropped 50k after dropping 50k couple of months ago, so whatever.
Sabrina – Your statement that “Market Conditions: Chicago Home Sales Fall Another 21.6% in October” is wrong and misleading. Sales did fall “another” 21.6% but fell YOY 21.6% from Oct 2007. You make it sound like it is a month over month number.
Get ready for the rebound!
Its clearly in the first sentence there Steve.
Still, the headline doesn’t match the facts.
Chicagoland Case-Shiller numbers were released today and as expected Chicago resumed its downward trend, dropping to 147.84 from 149.48. What is interesting is that this data is for September, a month where weather is typically still nice. I wasn’t expecting the drop for another month but perhaps the financial crisis fed into this.
Nominal prices declined in all 20 metro areas data was collected for, from a -3.5% month over month drop in Phoenix to a -0.6% drop in Cleveland. Chicagoland dropped 1.1%: only Boston, Minneapolis, New York, Cleveland & Dallas fared better. I think we know where those NY numbers are going though.
The question, Stevo, is this: Where YoY sales up or down in October 2007? If they were up, then I agree with you that the hed is misleading (in best online journalism fashion); however, if YoY sales were down in October 2007, too, then the hed is accurate and you’re criticism is misplaced.
I always enjoyed how the NAR would emphasize MoM figures during the spring/summer when it worked in their favor and then report YoY during the fall/winter. In general, the right way to look at things is YoY, as it controls somewhat for seasonality, although MoM may be appropriate at times. The Case Shiller numbers now include a seasonally adjusted data series, which shows a decline every single month for Chicago since early 2007 (even though the unadjusted series has shown minor blips up from seasonality effects).
I’m expecting major fallout from the financial meltdown, which won’t be much reflected in these numbers yet.
1) Sales were down in 2007 also. You can see it in the graph on the link below.
2) Yeah, Case Shiller now has Chicago prices back to November 2004 levels and a 12% decline from the peak in Sept 2006. I’ve updated that graph as well but you can’t really tell much, given the scale.
http://blog.lucidrealty.com/chicago_real_estate_statistics/
To say that Chicago is like Miami just proves you’re an idiot. I spent two weeks shopping condos in Miami and I’ve never in my life seen such despair. Sales offices are reminscent of Big 3 car dealers. While I obviously think the Chicago market is in horrid condition – Miami, is signicantly worse. By your comments, the price of a house is irrelvenat since we’re on the verge of armageddan and with people rioting in the streets for food, no one will care about the price of a home anyway.
Newsflash to sellers and the NAR.
It doesn’t matter what your seller’s thresholds are. With no buyers some sellers aren’t going to have a choice and with low churn they are going drag prices down while your clients go into foreclosure.
You are going to wish that you were ahead of the curve in dropping prices.
But, but, Lawrence Yun told us everything will be better in early 2009! He wouldn’t lie, now would he?
kp,
builders will lead the way, the rest will follow.
“Your statement that “Market Conditions: Chicago Home Sales Fall Another 21.6% in October” is wrong and misleading…You make it sound like it is a month over month number.”
She did nothing to make it sound like it was MoM. You inferred it. That’s your issue.
I bet Suzanne’s research numbers will be much better. Those Case and Shiller guys are party poopers and are just trying to talk down the market. Now is the perfect time to buy, real estate always go up over the long term, it is a great investment I’m certain of that. The buyers out there are going to be priced out of the market if they wait any longer….
In my neighborhood, they are currently overbuilding apartments. The truth is that I can wait longer than anyone that needs to sell. In addition to that, I am pretty leery of buying anything in Cook County right now. It sure looks like the county government is setting up the taxpayer for higher taxes. Until I know how much, I am not interested in committing myself to pay.
It’s nice to see some progress but we still have a long way to go. Wake me up when we see 40% declines from the peak in desirable areas.
I want to go on record that we won’t see more than another 10% decline in Chicago housing prices (Case Shiller). That’s how much it would take take to get us back to the trendline.
“Chicago Home Sales Fall Another 21.6% in October”
This is a clearly incorrect statement. I don’t understand why you people are defending the comment.
Homedelete said: “Wake me up when we see 40% declines from the peak in desirable areas.”
I’ll agree to wake you up when that happens if you’ll agree to go away until then so we can stop reading your useless, uninformed rants.
I’ll decline your offer T2. I’m sorry you don’t find my posts useful or informative. You can choose not to read them; I do the same with your posts.
Or you can visit YoChicago! (yochicago.com). There is plenty of kool-aid for you to drink there. Maybe you won’t want to return here.
(btw did you even read the article and/or understand it’s implications? 1,500 sales in Chicago in Oct!!!! Do you have any idea how small that number is? Do you know a god damn thing about what you’re talking about??? This market is toast and it’s just a matter of time before prices reflect the same.)
“#T2 on November 30th, 2008 at 7:35 pm
Homedelete said: “Wake me up when we see 40% declines from the peak in desirable areas.”
I’ll agree to wake you up when that happens if you’ll agree to go away until then so we can stop reading your useless, uninformed rants.”
At what point did I say that I didn’t understand the article? I simply stated that the title was clearly misleading and was a mistake. I am not a housing bull, but you have no idea what you are talking about most of the time. There are plenty of people on here that are able to articulate compelling reasons that things will get worse. You, sir, cannot.
That’s flat out unfair and untrue. I’ve articulated plenty of articulated why things will get worse. I’m the guy linking the option arm chart all the time. That chart speaks for itself.
I think you’re wrong about your opinion of me and I ask you to reconsider. My posts aren’t fricken treatises nor are they flaming vitriol like others. I like to think my posts provide a more practical and pragmatic based assessment of the economic environment with a legal twist. If you’re too stuck on figures and stats that you can’t see the forest for the trees then that’s your problem, not mine. The ways I’ve adjusted to the changing economy have been beneficial to my practice and my bottom line. Last time I checked, I have a job, work is busy as hell and the clients are all paying. And that puts me way ahead of a lot of other people so I’m content with that.
I am not a housing bull, but you have no idea what you are talking
about most of the time. There are plenty of people on here that are able to articulate compelling reasons that things will get worse. You, sir, cannot. “
The sales collapse continues.
Here are the sales numbers for Chicago attached and detached single-family homes for the month of November for recent years:
Year Sales YOY
2004 1,866
2005 2,613 40.0%
2006 2,232 -14.6%
2007 1,858 -16.8%
2008 1,022 -45.0%
Here are the historical condo/TH sales for Lincoln Park for Sept, Oct and Nov:
Year Sep Oct Nov
1988 104 78 70
1989 111 82 64
1990 72 78 44
1991 93 78 54
1992 109 85 69
1993 128 108 100
1994 140 92 68
1995 141 87 76
1996 132 94 65
1997 149 112 67
1998 119 76 85
1999 116 104 76
2000 130 94 83
2001 111 91 75
2002 136 97 70
2003 170 112 83
2004 182 131 94
2005 213 154 123
2006 104 98 91
2007 124 84 64
2008 73 62 30
Wow, November sales fell off a cliff.
Here’s hoping prices finally follow.
I have seen our generous hostess ask about Lake View sales so I will try to keep posting them. Here are the historical condo/TH sales for Lake View for Sept, Oct and Nov:
Year Sep Oct Nov
2005 304 207 178
2006 252 163 115
2007 174 147 118
2008 173 99 62
YOY -0.6% -32.7% -47.5%
I have included the numbers of listings entered into the MLS for November in order to provide some context for the sales numbers:
Lake View condo/TH:
Year Sales -YOY– List YOY
2005 178 392
2006 115 -35.4% 346 -11.7%
2007 118 2.6% 321 -7.2%
2008 62 -47.5% 298 -7.2%
Lincoln Park condo/TH:
Year Sales -YOY– List YOY
2005 123 232
2006 91 -26.0% 222 -4.3%
2007 64 -29.7% 209 -5.9%
2008 30 -53.1% 233 11.5%
Looks like the condo kiddies are gettin’ a bit hammered.
Haha good thing they got mommy & daddy’s help with the downpayment so they’re not suffering the whole loss themselves, instead a bit of it comes out of their future inheritance.
Real estate always goes up? True indeed–your RE investment either goes up invalue or UP IN SMOKE.
Wow those number are dismal. Here’s to the cracks in the facade of the housing market called inflated and ridiculous wishing prices. A return to affordability!
G, your numbers are helpful. can you also provide average sale prices for homes, both attached and not, for the past 2 years in lincoln park and lakeview?
G: Thanks for the sales info for Lakeview and LP.
As I thought: sales have fallen off a cliff. Prices will not be far behind unless all of those people who are listing don’t “need” to sell (which, of course, is highly unlikely- especially if they’re listing in November.)
“I like to think my posts provide a more practical and pragmatic based assessment of the economic environment with a legal twist.”
I like to think that you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about most of the time. I’m not the only one who has noticed how laughable most of your posts are. Why should anyone care what some paralegal who is hoping housing collapses so he can afford a place thinks about the economy?
T2, thanks for admitting you lost the arguments in this thread and that you were wrong. Ad hominem attacks are the white flag of surrender when you have nothing left to say. For a guy alleged from a “top 2 area MBA program’ you got your ass kicked. Which isn’t surprising at all, you got your butt kicked on the school yard as a young boy and again you’re getting your butt kicked by a bunch of strangers in an online thread. You’re wrong about employment, you’re wrong about the housing market, you’re wrong about price declines…..and everything you’ve said is just a recap of the last 24 hours of CNBC. Nobody ever got fired for buying IBM, right? Say what everybody else is saying and everything will be OK, right? I guess your $40,000 a year MBA program didn’t teach you how to form an original idea. No worries, you’ll be looking for work just like everybody else. Maybe you can retool your skills for this new economy. John mentioned PetSmart on North Broadway is hiring a dog groomer….
“T2 on December 1st, 2008 at 8:19 pm
“I like to think my posts provide a more practical and pragmatic based assessment of the economic environment with a legal twist.”
I like to think that you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about most of the time. I’m not the only one who has noticed how laughable most of your posts are. Why should anyone care what some paralegal who is hoping housing collapses so he can afford a place thinks about the economy?”