Market Conditions: Chicago Housing Market Was on Ice in December 2018
The Illinois Association of Realtors is out with the December 2018 numbers.
Sales were down big year-over-year.
In the city of Chicago, home sales (single-family and condominiums) in December 2018 totaled 1,698 homes sold, down 17.5 percent from December 2017 sales of 2,058 homes.
The median price of a home in the city of Chicago in December 2018 was $246,500, down 7.1 percent compared to December 2017 when it was $265,250.
All the data:
- December 2004: 3,719 sales and median price of $267,000
- December 2005: 2,847 sales and median price of $283,000
- December 2006: 2,241 sales and median price of $279,000
- December 2007: 1,629 sales and median price of $287,000
- December 2008: 1,263 sales and median price of $235,000
- December 2009: 1,820 sales and median price of $208,000 (34% short/REO sales)
- December 2010: 1,475 sales and median price of $166,000 (43% short/REO sales)
- December 2011: 1,536 sales and median price of $156,000 (44% short/REO sales)
- December 2012: 1806 sales and median price of $185,000 (39.7% short/REO sales- according to Gary Lucido’s data)
- December 2013: 2137 sales and median price of $210,000
- December 2014: 2020 sales and median price of $228,000
- December 2015: 2077 sales and median price of $242,000
- December 2016: 1974 sales and median price of $260,000
- December 2017: 2,058 sales and median price of $265,500
- December 2018: 1,698 sales and median price of $246,500
December 2018 was a reversal of several trends.
It was the first time since 2011 that median price actually declined. We know the median doesn’t tell you much because it’s so dependent on the mix but it’s still a reversal of a significant trend.
It was also the lowest level of total sales since 2011. And no month wants to be compared to 2011 given that that was the dark times of the housing bust.
“The current atmosphere presents some opportunities for both buyers and sellers, despite the historically slow time of year for the market,” said Tommy Choi, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and broker at Keller Williams Chicago – Lincoln Park. “With the December rate increase and the start of the government shutdown, consumers were more measured in their approach to buying a home – although the continued decline in market time illustrates that, despite these factors, when they found the right home, at the right price, they were willing to act quickly.”
The average 30-year fixed mortgage was 4.64% in the month, down from 4.9% the prior month but still higher than December 2017 which averaged 3.95%.
December’s statewide market time was 59 days, down from 60 days in December 2017. Inventory declined again, but just 2.4% to 47,048 from 48,196 a year ago.
“Once again consumer sentiment indices are pointing in different directions,” said Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, director emeritus of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the University of Illinois. “Clearly, the uncertainty in the market exacerbated by the partial government shutdown has generated some additional caution among potential home buyers. The outlook for the next three months suggests a continuation of this trend, dampening price increases in Illinois and Chicago.”
Other than one snowstorm in November, weather doesn’t appear to have been an issue for those buyers who went under contract and closed in December.
So what caused the big drop in sales?
Was this a one off?
Or will January be equally as slow?
Illinois home sales lower in December; market closes out a largely stable 2018 (Illinois Association of Realtors, Press Release, January 23, 2019)
December was actually relatively warm; yet prices and volume still dropped precipitously YOY. Sales are going to be even slower all January and February. There’s a major cold snap coming – most of us will barely even go outside for the next few weeks. I’m hearing whispers among real estate professionals that the market has peaked and it’s time for a minor to moderate correction. Even I have been looking to upgrade my home to a larger home with more bedrooms – and there’s very little reasonably priced properties out there. It’s like we’ve returned to the days of the $800,000 northbrook 1960’s tract home colonial. 2/2 pricing in the city is outrageous too.
I have actually seen properties in my old hood selling for less than they bought a few years ago, very rare still but hooweee I am glad I got out when I did
Should have a lot of options in Long Grove, HD, so long as you’re willing to do a little updating. Or are you heading to one of the Barringtons??
I wonder if we are starting to see the trend of millennials moving to the burbs. Lots of them are starting to settle down and having kids now but the schools in the city are just not that great. On top of that condo pricing is really high now and with all these economic uncertainties I’d think there is very limited room for further appreciation.
huh guess my comment earlier got eaten by this awesome commenting software…
Anyway, I am glad I sold when I did as I am no seeing properties being listed in my old hood for less than they bought a few years ago… yikes! Not a good thing!
In my hood – OTT – things seem to be moving. 2 places that were on the market through the holidays are now under contract. It does seem the condo market is in a rough spot (there have been some places posted about here that have had many cuts) and the peripheral “luxury” areas are weak (for example west of Ashland in LV). I think the elimination of SALT deductions is hurting the high end. $20k of taxes used to be $13k net taxes. That $7k per year is worth $140k in present value (assuming 5% rates) = 14% of the price for a $1mm home w/ $20k in taxes. The SALT deduction comes back in 2025 unless extended and could even come back earlier since the Dem states were hit hardest.
Things are still flying off the shelf in Lincoln Square. It’s crazy how desirable the area has become
LOL^ That sounds like a stupid realtor comment if I have ever heard one… and I should know, I’m a Managing Broker…
We are actually probably going to leave IL. The ship is sinking and we don’t want to go down with the ship. And the high of -7 next Wednesday isn’t helping either. It’s looking like a move to a sunbelt TX NC or FL. Possibly TN.
“It’s looking like a move to a sunbelt TX NC or FL. Possibly TN.”
Spend time there before you go. Go in ALL seasons. My aunt was going to leave Wisconsin after the nasty 2011 winter. She was going to move to Raleigh area. Not only was it more expensive than Wisconsin, by far, but while the winters were more mild the summers were sweltering and LONG.
6 months after that bad winter, when Wisconsin was having a lovely summer, she decided to stay and has never brought it up again.
I also have a friend in Tennessee who lived in Chicago for 10 years. Winters are much more mild. She’s in Nashville. They get the weird snow/ice mix a lot of the time and no one can drive in it. So they all stay home when it happens. Definitely shorter winters. They will have spring flowers in late February. They do get a lot of severe weather though. Tornados are common.
And don’t get me started about the Florida summers. Recently, Floridians were complaining about the hot weather they had as temps in Miami hadn’t gone below 60 degrees at night for like 5 months. They were tired of the heat/humidity.
But in the middle of winter in the Midwest, it’s not unusual to want to go somewhere else. I’m always amazed that the settlers came here and stayed. They didn’t have central heat. Imagine sleeping with just the fire going when it’s zero degrees out there?
Respect.
Things are still flying off the shelf in Lincoln Square. It’s crazy how desirable the area has become
Really? I feel like Lincoln Square went out of favor after the bust. Prices got too high. It was too far from downtown. They’ve built a lot of expensive single family homes, but otherwise, not much is going on there. No real demand by Millennials to move there.
“We are actually probably going to leave IL.”
not a bad choice, I haven’t regretted my decision one bit
I am surprised inventory is down. That makes me think it’s not as big of an issue. Economically, this is an odd time with the rates going up, the stock market declining badly in 2018, and the government shut down (not sure how much this plays any kind of role in Chi really). Plus, the prime rate is up, so a lot of people with debt are paying more.
People are supposedly getting jobs in record numbers and unemployment is very low. The Spring might release a lot of pent up demand if the winter goes slow and economic forces stabilize.
I agree with Ofo about millennials moving to the burbs. Not a single one I know has purchased in the city (of course some do). All of the ones I know just rent and leave for the burbs when the 1st kid arrives.
Do any Crib Chatterers travel south of Roosevelt? It doesn’t seem like they do. How about some love for McKinley Park, which is Redfin’s current top affordable market, and the top neighborhood in Chicago?
FYI, the movement we’re seeing here in McKinley is families coming back into the city and going to a much-improved CPS. Yes, there are still issues, but CPS is the best big district in the country right now, and one of our neighborhood elementaries just got a 1+ ranking.
Sonies – where did you move to?
Weather wise there are few “perfect” places. San Diego being one of them. I’m from New England (relatives still in MA) and I think Boston has as bad or worse weather than here. They get way more snow (Noreasters) plus the occasional hurricane. Last year they had 2 massive tides that flooded the downtown Boston. Yet people still love Boston – GE just moved their HQ there from CT. But their finances are much better than IL / Chicago.
“Do any Crib Chatterers travel south of Roosevelt? It doesn’t seem like they do. How about some love for McKinley Park, which is Redfin’s current top affordable market, and the top neighborhood in Chicago?”
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Juiceman,
Very few. Crib Chatter is very much a North side pump and shill site, and woe betide the poster who brings a dose of reality to the party. The best most CCers will do is Hyde Park with a shout out to Beverly once a decade.
Face it, there’s not much to conjure with in the bungalow belt, and the South side is mostly bungalow belt. To be fair, you won’t see any Crib Chatter threads on North side bungalow belt neighborhoods, either.
Bottom line: Don’t take it personally.
As for McKinley Park, I’ve read where it is hot now, but “top neighborhood” in Chicago? I thought that honor went to Forest Glen.
As for CPS, going from abysmal to wretched is still a massive fail. My position is simple: If you can’t afford to send your children to a British boarding school, don’t have ’em.
I’ll add another South Side update: prices between about 63rd Street, the Dan Ryan (or more accurately, the RR viaduct just to the east) and the lakefront, excluding HP-K, have really increased over the past three years. I would have laughed at you if you’d told me ten years ago that there would be 600k new construction and a Jewel about to open in Woodlawn. A lot of white families with kids are being spotted all over more and more. Not a bungalow in sight, either.
Sabrina, I don’t think most millenials are generally in the market for $1M+ SFHs, so not completely relevant. Also, according to the DePaul Housing Institute, sort of Case Schiller for Chicago area, Lincoln Square is top three in price appreciation since 2000 and the Great Recession. And to juiceman’s point, both CPS and Catholic schools are seeing massive increases in enrollment in the area. Lincoln Square is hotter than it’s been in my 40+ years of living here.
“Sonies – where did you move to?”
I moved to Reno, Nevada — its definitely not for everyone to say the least but it works for me and I love it
sonies – made any turns yet this season?
FG – Thanks for the 63rd street update. That is shocking to me. I was there a few years ago and it was a war zone (63rd and King). I’m not kidding, it was third world bad. Most of West Woodlawn was pretty bad. What has happened to the Parkway Gardens? Because there is no way anyone is going to pay $660K for a home anywhere near that toxic environment.
lots and lots of turns we’ve had a ton of snow
Apparently it’s not a problem, but King Drive is still a long way from Cottage. Most of the Woodlawn development is still east of Cottage Grove, but I think it’s pushing west from there and south from Garfield. It was already starting before the OPC site was selected – I think even about 20 years ago, but on a very small scale.
The biggest difference is along the Boulevards (King Drive & Drexel). Toni Preckwinkle deserves the credit for convincing developers to starting looking at Oakland which got the entire area moving. The Gap is starting fill in at last too (even in the 70’s it was always “about to happen”).
I’ve been somewhat tracking unrehabbed rowhouses and there are fewer available and the prices doubled in the past two or three years.
“Do any Crib Chatterers travel south of Roosevelt? It doesn’t seem like they do. How about some love for McKinley Park, which is Redfin’s current top affordable market, and the top neighborhood in Chicago?”
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I live on the northside, but certainly do travel to the southside from time to time, and would love more coverage of the southside.
“I live on the northside, but certainly do travel to the southside from time to time, and would love more coverage of the southside.”
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Tying everything together in a Grand Unified Theory of as is my wont, I believe this was addressed after I asked for a definition of “Green Zone” some months back and stirred up both passion and research (I am a rabble rouser, but I don’t mean to be bad (not)). If I remember correctly (no guaranties there — the mind is always the second to go), Sabrina stated (I paraphrase loosely) that Bronzeville and other “ready to take off” neighborhoods had been ready to take off for scumpty-ump years and there was no use in waiting for them. They were not “Green Zone” category worthy.
That’s where I got the admission that certain amoungst us had never heard of Pill Hill, and a statement that Crib Chatter had, in fact, featured Beverly homes now and again (I can only assume they were on very slow news days).
Not waiting for those neighborhoods makes sense if your goal is to generate “buzz” (right Z?) and for real estate agents, commissions. After all, two percent (half of four — buyer/seller side, your choice) of a million dollars is $20,000, three percent of a $200,000 bungalow sale is $6,000. AND LET US NOT FORGET that the million dollar sale occurs in a “hot” area, making the idea that the buyer/sucker is getting a deal easier to sell. Remember, I used the term “conjure with” in my prior post about the difficulty of portraying/selling the bungalow belt. A salesman’s (read r.e. shill) job is to sell the sizzle, not the steak. If you’ve portrayed one bungalow, you’ve portrayed the next 10,000. That’s fine — but you have no neighborhood or niche to pump to “sell the sizzle.” Bungalow belt neighborhoods are not — and we know from the various definitions of “green zone” tossed around heretofore — never will be, hot and trendy.
So Crib Chatter has focused on the North side (I believe I mentioned before — caveating again the status of the brain — with prejudice to the South side) with mild exceptions to Hyde Park and Beverly for their North side type characteristics (dynamic neighborhoods and fat commissions if you can score one).
Do r.e. agents on the North side sell South side bungalow belt houses? Sure. We know Gary does, because one poster here (New York?) mentioned buying real estate near Midway Airport using one of Gary’s agents. That doesn’t mean that you’ll see bungalow belt listings on Crib Chatter.
Low end “commodity” listings are not what Crib Chatter is all about. High end, sure, but there’s commission bucks there. Nothing wrong with Crib Chatter’s niche, you just have to accept the limitations and fight the unjustified hype when needs must (e.g., saying that Bucktown goes South of Armitage).
Back in October I looked at Zillow data to determine the hottest areas in Chicago (price appreciation) and a number of them showed up on the south side. http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2018/10/chicagos-highest-appreciating-neighborhoods-will-surprise-you/
It was a similar result to what you get looking at the Depaul data.
Property tax increases are what is causing a stagnant price for Chicago real estate. In 2014, I paid $4900 for the property taxes on the 2/2 I bought in the Fulton river district. They are now paying $9850 5 years later.
“Back in October I looked at Zillow data to determine the hottest areas in Chicago (price appreciation) and a number of them showed up on the south side. ”
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Your data glosses over the fact that those hot South side neighborhoods are starting from a low base, Gary, and therefore do not displace the bias for North side properties on Crib Chatter (not that that is wrong, it simply is). Coupled with Sabrina’s comments about how long various neighborhoods have been “the next thing,” my bungalow belt analysis holds.
Mike HG — what’s your market value appreciation between the two tax points, please?
“I believe this was addressed after I asked for a definition of “Green Zone” some months back and stirred up both passion and research (I am a rabble rouser, but I don’t mean to be bad (not)). If I remember correctly (no guaranties there — the mind is always the second to go), Sabrina stated (I paraphrase loosely) that Bronzeville and other “ready to take off” neighborhoods had been ready to take off for scumpty-ump years and there was no use in waiting for them. They were not “Green Zone” category worthy.”
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Sabrina covers more than the Green Zone. My understanding of the Green Zone was that it’s basically neighborhoods that feel safe with the amenities they like to the average Chad and Trixie (although I hate that term since who the heck is even named Trixie? I know lots of upper middle class and professional Big10 grads, and not one Trixie). Sabrina said it’s about neighborhoods that were expected to hold their value, but reading through a lot of usage of the term here back in the day, I think there’s more to it.
Anyway, under either usage, Bronzeville would not fit. Among other things, it got clobbered by the crash and took longer to recover than many other areas. (Natalie Y. Moore’s The South Side talks about her personal experience with this, as well as the amenities she assumed would quickly appear when she bought there, and how they did not.) I think Bronzeville has a great housing stock for far less money than you pay in the Green Zone, and maybe someday it will become GZ, but it’s not now. That has zero to do with a lack of interest in the area. (For business reasons I’ve spent time in
Crib Chatter has covered places in a variety of neighborhoods. I know, since when I first discovered the site I used the neighborhoods list to pick out posts about neighborhoods I wanted to learn more about and read mostly the ones for places I was less familiar with. Sure, it tends to cover more expensive areas more, but it has a much broader focus too.
“Sure, it tends to cover more expensive areas more, but it has a much broader focus too.”
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Hence Juiceman’s comment about the South side not feeling the love, and my comment about sizzle-sellers not being able to do much with bungalows, which is southie’s stock in trade.
So “much broader focus?” Sorry Steph, but the facts are in your way.
Another story that everyone’s missing is Chinatown, which continues to metastasize, especially to the south and southwest into and through Bridgeport. Here in McKinley Park, we have a number of housing developments — including a gigantic one on Archer Ave. — that are solely marketed to Chinese-speaking customers. To the point of English-language marketing literature simply not being available, for example.
http://cribchatter.com/?p=25484
is a prime example of North side neighborhood bias (337 West Armitage, posted on 29 October 2018, even mentions being discussed 2011-13 on CC).
Yessiree Bob, the visuals of that place are head ans shoulders above even the finest South side bungalow.
Sabrina doesn’t cover the south side bungalow for the same reasons she doesn’t cover the split levels in Glenview. No one cares enough to comment on it. Get over the ‘north side bias’ nonsense. The green zone has the highest prices, the most density and the highest population and the most wealth. Theres a reason there are no real estate blogs about Stone park or other places less desirable than the green zone.
“The green zone has the highest prices, the most density and the highest population and the most wealth.”
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So no/little Hyde Park, no/little Beverly, no discussion of up-and-coming South side areas even though there has been discussion of arriviste North side neighborhoods? That’s bias.
It’s Sabrina’s choice, of course, but as Juiceman pointed out, she’s missing out, even if one goes a cut above the bungalows — and trust me, I have no desire to comment on bungalows either.
“…Theres a reason there are no real estate blogs about Stone park or other places less desirable than the green zone.”
Sez he who most likely bought in Mt Prospect (not that there’s anything wrong w/that) as last IL res before moving to Fond du Loc or Pigeon Forge.
Southbound is biased against the suburbs. Go figure!
“It’s Sabrina’s choice, of course, but as Juiceman pointed out, she’s missing out, even if one goes a cut above the bungalows — and trust me, I have no desire to comment on bungalows either.”
johnc: Here’s a really awesome split in Crystal Lake, comment away
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Crystal-Lake/4607-E-Upland-Dr-60012/home/17828085
“Sez he who most likely bought in Mt Prospect”
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And your evidence for such is?
As for Crystal Lake, we may pass over without comment BOTH the timing of the posting (not Lakeview) AND its provinance (homed, versus Sabrina) as to the fact that Sabrina ASKED for comments on 337, and we have “her” postings.
As my Senior Drill Instructor told us many times at Parris Island in various ways: — know your place.
johnc: southbound says I live in Mt Prospect (I do not).
As for being in the military, I respect that. Thank you your service. I did not serve but my brother, grandfather, uncle and cousins have. My first cousin died shortly after returning from Iraq and received a full military burial with 21 gun salute.
“So no/little Hyde Park, no/little Beverly, no discussion of up-and-coming South side areas even though there has been discussion of arriviste North side neighborhoods? That’s bias.”
johnc, you haven’t been around long enough. I’ve done plenty of posts about The Gap, Hyde Park, Jackson Park Highlands, Morgan Park, Beverly, Pilsen and even McKinley Park. Heck, I’ve even covered South Shore. There simply hasn’t been much going on in those areas in this time of low inventory.
Go look at the Archives. It’s not hard to do.
I’ll cover more on Hyde Park this spring since they are redoing the golf course down there and Obama’s library will be coming in. But with this weather, I’m not going anywhere for a while to take pictures. Also, most properties won’t be coming on for a few weeks yet for the spring selling season.
“Sabrina doesn’t cover the south side bungalow for the same reasons she doesn’t cover the split levels in Glenview. No one cares enough to comment on it. Get over the ‘north side bias’ nonsense.”
Yes- there is some of this too. It depends on the property and the neighborhood, however.
There are some really cool properties on the South Side and I like to cover them. But inventory has been low, like everywhere.
The supporters of neighborhoods like the Villas or Sauganash could argue I have “bias” against them too. But there just isn’t as much interest.
“is a prime example of North side neighborhood bias (337 West Armitage, posted on 29 October 2018, even mentions being discussed 2011-13 on CC).”
I aim to cover the same properties. Given that many people reading this blog, were also reading it 10 years ago, it’s very interesting to see the old comments and what the peanut gallery was thinking during the bust with this completely different market. So, yes, the comparisons make it more interesting and I will write about those properties again.
“That’s where I got the admission that certain amoungst us had never heard of Pill Hill, and a statement that Crib Chatter had, in fact, featured Beverly homes now and again (I can only assume they were on very slow news days).”
Go look at the Archives. No one is stopping you. They’re right there.
“Low end “commodity” listings are not what Crib Chatter is all about. High end, sure, but there’s commission bucks there.”
This is laughable. You have been here like 8 months. I’ve covered tons of bungalow belts including Schorsch Village. Ba ha ha!
Again, the archives are there for all to see.
“How about some love for McKinley Park, which is Redfin’s current top affordable market, and the top neighborhood in Chicago?”
I worked in McKinley Park for 10 years. The real estate just isn’t there to cover. There were some church conversions I covered back in the bust. But otherwise, it’s just not super interesting in that area.
“Sabrina, I don’t think most millenials are generally in the market for $1M+ SFHs, so not completely relevant.”
Millennials are aged 21-38 as of 2019. Who else is going to buy the million dollar homes? GenXers have already bought. Baby Boomers are retiring and leaving the state.
Tone, if Millennials aren’t into Lincoln Square now, when will they be? Because during the early 2000s it WAS GenX who liked that neighborhood. Where will the new blood come from? Who will afford the $700,000 2/2s they are building there right now? Those are LP and Lakeview prices.
“Face it, there’s not much to conjure with in the bungalow belt, and the South side is mostly bungalow belt.”
Gosh, for someone who knows so much about the South Side, this statement is just so wrong. The South Shore neighborhood isn’t the “bungalow belt.” Neither are neighborhoods like Jackson Park Highlands. In fact, the entire shoreline area isn’t a “bungalow belt.”
Neither Beverly nor Morgan Park are “bungalow belts” either.
“not a bad choice, I haven’t regretted my decision one bit”
Um…you’ve been gone one month. When Reno doesn’t get any of the latest independent movies and you’re tired of the dudes doing drugs in the woods, you’ll be like, “gosh, maybe I should have stayed in the Midwest.”
There’s nowhere perfect. Some of our ancestors left Greece and Italy and here they are, sitting in Chicago dealing with -10 degrees. Lol.
Just testing the subscription function which appears to be reactivated.
Great Gary. Apparently, that old plugin only works on old sites. Lol!
And I did get the notice of your post!
Sabrina, when they decide to settle down and buy a house is when millenials will find Lincoln Square. Most young adults aren’t buying $1M+ homes in family friendly neighborhoods. Why would they?
“Gosh, for someone who knows so much about the South Side, this statement is just so wrong. The South Shore neighborhood isn’t the “bungalow belt.” Neither are neighborhoods like Jackson Park Highlands. In fact, the entire shoreline area isn’t a “bungalow belt.”
Neither Beverly nor Morgan Park are “bungalow belts” either.”
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That’s why I said “mostly”. The South side encompasses about 60 percent of Chicago. What you’ve mentioned encompasses maybe 10-15 percent of Chicago, tops. That leaves most of the South side untouched.
There’s very much a North side bias to Crib Chatter. Nothing wrong with that, it simply is. Come Spring I’ll look forward to see more South listings and maybe Juiceman will feel the love.
“Nothing wrong with that”
I’d love to see johnc in Orloff, complaining about the bias against american cars.
“I’d love to see johnc in Orloff, complaining about the bias against american cars.”
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I’m too much of a free trade economist to do that. Besides, I know for a fact that Orloff takes American in trade.
BTW, it was Juiceman who noted the South side not feeling the love, not me.
But you were the one going on and on and on about it, and treating it as if it were a conspiracy with the realtor cabal.
You should just decide that some part of the southie bungalow belt is “Bucktown South”.
“You should just decide that some part of the southie bungalow belt is “Bucktown South”.”
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You mean the areas around Beverly that will be affected by the Red Line extension? Sure!
That is, if the real estate agents don’t start expanding Beverly first. Wouldn’t surprise me a bit if they are already doing so.
“Most young adults aren’t buying $1M+ homes in family friendly neighborhoods. Why would they?”
Tone: 38 is a “young adult”?
Millennials are not young. Not anymore. That would be GenZ. People need to move on from the Great Recession which is now a decade ago. Those Millennials who graduated directly into it and moved into their parents basement after school because they didn’t have jobs, are now 32.
32!
How old were GenX’ers who moved to Lincoln Square in the early 2000s? Most of the people I knew were in their upper 20s. Tired of Lakeview. Looking to buy but still wanted the El. Lincoln Square was cheaper. Hence why the neighborhood had the biggest appreciation in the bubble years.
But since then, prices haven’t gone anywhere. Why would I pay the same to live in Lincoln Square versus another neighborhood much closer to the Loop?
And now I see they are building $700,000 2-bedroom condos. Who’s buying those that far north? It’s no longer a starter neighborhood, that’s for sure.
I can see Lincoln Square prices basically going nowhere for the next 10 to 15 years. By then, GenX will be selling to downsize and/or retire. Maybe GenZ will be interested by then.
‘I see they are building $700,000 2-bedroom condos’
Where are these?
Condos in LS (or NC, etc) would need to be v large to support that. I agree that commodity-sized 2/2s would be goofy at that price.
What are you talking about? How many 32 year olds buy $1m houses? Most aren’t even married at 32 in Chicago.
And yes, those 38 year old millennials are buying in Lincoln Square. Why do you think it has the 3rd highest home price appreciation since 2000 in the entire region?
Millennials are not young. Not anymore. That would be GenZ. People need to move on from the Great Recession which is now a decade ago. Those Millennials who graduated directly into it and moved into their parents basement after school because they didn’t have jobs, are now 32.
32!
Sabrina, you’ve gotta quite moving the goal posts when talking about Millennials. The oldest (and being as generous as I can and using 95, though I would argue 2000) Gen Z is 24. There’s a whole cadre of Millennials between 32-24 you always seem to ignore since it doesn’t fit your beliefs.
Take a Millennial out for an Avocado Latte
‘I would argue 2000’
I would argue that there is no reasonable argument that it is not 2000. It sure as shit ain’t 1995–there isn’t any basis to compress two generations into 30 years, and the Boomers are thru 64, for sure.
All these kids who were born in 81, 82 and claim they aren’t Gen X are silly, too–everyone hate the X’ers.
Give or take a year on the margins, it is:
65-82 = X
83-00 = Millennial
01-now-ish = Z (pending a snappy name)
now-ish to ?? = ???
“All these kids who were born in 81, 82 and claim they aren’t Gen X are silly, too–everyone hate the X’ers.”
Why would anyone want to self identify as a Millennial?
I would argue that there is no reasonable argument that it is not 2000. It sure as shit ain’t 1995–there isn’t any basis to compress two generations into 30 years, and the Boomers are thru 64, for sure.
Why would anyone self identify as a Millennial?
“Why would anyone self identify as a Millennial?”
Youth obsession, so better than being an “old” X’er.
JohnnyU to Sabrina: “There’s a whole cadre of Millennials between 32-24 you always seem to ignore since it doesn’t fit your beliefs.
Take a Millennial out for an Avocado Latte”
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Harsh, Johnny, harsh. I just said Sabrina (Z) has a bias towards the North side. You’re having her (?) writing off a portion of a generation for philosophical (read: objectively unproveable) reasons?
Fie, I say! Fie!
And yes, I stand for the proposition that Bucktown ends North of Armitage, but that’s hardly the same as a lost generation. . .
As for avocado lattes, I have never had one (nor a pumpkin spice anything, for that matter), but the concept strikes me as revolting.
Oldest GenZ is NOT 24. Not according to social scientists. They’re 19-20, depending on who you ask. The year right before and right afterwards is always dubious in every generation.
Oldest Millennials believe that they are really GenX. They didn’t go to school with smart phones, for example. Nor social media, just like GenXers.
“And yes, those 38 year old millennials are buying in Lincoln Square. Why do you think it has the 3rd highest home price appreciation since 2000 in the entire region?”
Oh Tone. Oh, oh, oh Tone. Tell me you didn’t go there. But you did.
The only reason it has the “3rd highest home appreciation since 2000” was because, like I said, GenXers moved there from 2000-2008 during condo mania after they were priced out of Lakeview. Prices more than doubled.
It was the hottest neighborhood in the city.
But that was then.
Since 2008, however, nothing much has gone on. The bubble burst and now it’s as expensive, if not more so, than other neighborhoods like Andersonville or Logan Square, which remains hot with super low inventory.
Please, do tell us what the appreciation has been the last 5 or 10 years?
Because you’re not buying a condo and living in it for 19 years.
I’m not arguing that prices are plunging there. Far from it. But the appreciation was priced in over 10 years ago. It’s no longer a hot neighborhood, mostly because the 2/2 condos are coming on the market for $600,000 to $700,000 but buyers can pay that in Lakeview all the same now. Or plenty of other neighborhoods as well.
I can’t even remember the last time anyone I know even said “I’m trying to find an apartment in Lincoln Square.” But that could be because there haven’t been any big rental projects there. It’s not a neighborhood on anyone’s radar.
“the 2/2 condos are coming on the market for $600,000 to $700,000”
Number of buildings with 2/2 condos currently listed over $600k in what could plausibly be called Lincoln Square = ZERO.
There is ONE building (4802 Bell) with 2/2.5 condos asking 695/725 and up for some of the units. Those Candea guys are really aggressive with their pricing, from what I have seen.
What else is out there to get to the 3 developments necessary to establish a trend?
Oldest GenZ is NOT 24. Not according to social scientists. They’re 19-20, depending on who you ask. The year right before and right afterwards is always dubious in every generation.
So these 19-20YO young adults are in the market for $600M condos?
Sabrina, Lincoln square also has the third best appreciation since the bottom in 2011 or 12.
Sure Tone. Whatever you say.
The South Side is where it’s hot. That’s because houses are so much cheaper and flippers are going in there. Thankfully. There are some beautiful areas. I hope some of the older historic homes are saved. Such great bones.
What was one of the hottest neighborhoods in 2018?
Englewood!
“Sheena Fisher grew up in Humboldt Park, but when the time came last year to buy a house for her family of four, she already knew it wouldn’t be as easy for her to afford to buy there as it was for her parents three decades ago, long before it became one of the city’s fastest-gentrifying areas.
Fisher, who works in marketing for a large retailer, ultimately found a four-bedroom house in her price range, newly rehabbed with stylish tile and flooring and a homey front porch. She paid $95,000 for the house in November, and the foursome moved into their new address in Englewood.
Yes, Englewood, a neighborhood that in recent decades has been among the city’s hardest-hit by foreclosure, crime, disinvestment and population loss. More recently, it’s been a focus of investment, with a Whole Foods, a Starbucks, a new Kennedy-King College campus and, under construction now, a new STEM-focused public high school.”
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/residential-real-estate/chicago-housing-market-was-most-dynamic-south-side-2018
“So these 19-20YO young adults are in the market for $600M condos?”
No. That’s the whole point. GenZ is still in school, for the most part. And younger Millennials don’t have the money for $600,000 condos. They’re not buying in Lincoln Square, or anywhere else, for that matter.
And why should any younger person buy? If you bought in the last 5 years you’re likely losing money selling right now. How long are you really going to live in that condo? Not long enough.
But this will become even more clear in the next few years as more and more people lose money. You will only buy to live there for 10+ years. Because at least that way you can pay down the loan even if you’re only “making” 1% a year in appreciation. It’s not the best use of your money but, again, you’re building equity.
“Number of buildings with 2/2 condos currently listed over $600k in what could plausibly be called Lincoln Square = ZERO.”
Oh, I’m sorry.
2/2.5. A half bath extra. It’s 1400 square feet. It’s not a palace.
So yeah- there are $600,000 2 bedroom condos in Lincoln Square, anon(tfo).
Surprise! Oh- but wait, those developers are just being “aggressive.” Is that true of all the $600,000 2-bedrooms in Lakeview and Lincoln Park too? Maybe you should make a low ball offer and just tell them, “you’re being aggressive.”
And yes, ONE is a trend. Because they are building it. You CAN buy it there. It’s not a mirage anon(tfo).
Why does a $600,000 2 bedroom or even 3-bedroom in that neighborhood make ANY sense? It does not.
No, Lincoln Square is no longer “hot.” It hasn’t been for 10 years since you could buy a nice 2/1 vintage unit for $225,000 and take your hour long brown line trip downtown. You bought there because it was cheaper and cute. If you’re a Millennial, why buy now?
I’d rather plop down my money every month on a new rental in the Lincoln Commons at Fullerton and Lincoln.
This “hotness” argument seems silly — the numbers are what they are, and if Lincoln Square is not in demand prices will decline.
In actuality, Lincoln Square has barely any 2/2s on the market at all (especially if you look just at the neighborhood vs. the community area), most currently are on busy streets, and the more typical price for those on the market at the moment is around $350K. If you look at places sold in the past year (a better way of judging than what’s on the market at the current moment, given how low the inventory is), they mostly range from $250K-$400K, and none are new construction. New construction luxury 2/2s isn’t really the Lincoln Square market.
Judging the neighborhood’s offerings by a single new construction 2/2.5 seems likely to distort the result.
New construction is obviously in demand and pretty rare in some of these neighborhoods, no doubt developers think that limit means they can find those willing to pay a high price for it. That does not mean that Lincoln Square prices are the same as Lakeview. I sold in Lakeview last year (and did a lot of looking around to judge prices), and I looked in Lincoln Square, among other neighborhoods, and prices just aren’t close to the same. At open houses, I ran into lots of couples looking for houses in Lincoln Square, Edgewater, and North Center (or just the first two, since North Center also was typically more expensive).
“I’d rather plop down my money every month on a new rental in the Lincoln Commons at Fullerton and Lincoln.”
So would I, but that is not the point. There is one developer building 10(?) units in one building that fit your narrative. It’s not the norm, at all.
The other 10 2/2s in Lincoln Square (redfin definition) are listed for $260 to $400k. THAT is the norm. Does the one kookoo development indicate the market in any given hood? Nah!
Sabrina, not sure what you call “hot” but Lincoln Square has the 3rd highest price appreciation since 2000, the third highest price appreciation since the last peak. It is one of only 4 areas DePaul Housing institute looks at that is at peak price right now.
Lol at Englewood being hot!!!!!
“Lol at Englewood being hot!!!!!”
Ah…but it is.
This is just your north side bias talking. 😉
“So would I, but that is not the point. There is one developer building 10(?) units in one building that fit your narrative. It’s not the norm, at all.”
Of COURSE that’s the norm. If the appraiser is appraising those out, it’s the norm. Go look at all the other prices in that neighborhood. It’s now on par with Lakeview, NC, LP etc. It is no longer the “hottest” neighborhood. In fact, it’s not even in the top 5. And now that it’s at “peak” with mortgage rates rising and Millennials priced out, it has nowhere else to go but down.
Sorry buyers. But you’re in good company. Lincoln Park has had low appreciation rates for years too.
“In actuality, Lincoln Square has barely any 2/2s on the market at all”
This is true. Inventory has been low in the neighborhood for years. I haven’t done many Lincoln Square posts during that time because of that. And I’ve looked a lot over the years.
Just posted my January update. Sales down 7.1% but IAR will report a 9.1% decline.
I still think it’s an inventory issue. Just look at the numbers and also the market times. However, market times do indicate a softening in demand for condos.
http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2019/02/chicago-real-estate-market-update-january-home-sales-hit-4-year-low/
those charts don’t look so good gary, with exception of the inventory… I don’t think that one chart tells the whole story though
All the sales related charts (sales, contracts, and pending) look sad but they are all related to the same thing. However, inventory and market time look good, though trouble may be brewing for condos.
“However, inventory and market time look good, though trouble may be brewing for condos.”
Why is trouble brewing Gary?
“Why is trouble brewing Gary?”
———————–
“Why?” — because people are not buying condos like they used to, as witnessed by a circa 15 percent increase in wait times. Why people are not buying is anybody’s guess.
Sabrina, Lincoln Square inventory is low because anything put on the market is sold quickly. And prices are at peak now. That’s a hot market.
“That’s a hot market.”
If it was truly “hot” there would be new construction everywhere. They’ve been tearing down the old homes and building new McMansions. But not much of anything else.
I also don’t understand the point of buying a million dollar home in that neighborhood. The schools aren’t good. The high school certainly isn’t. If you want local Thai and Mexican restaurants along with a Starbucks you could live in Oak Park and get the same thing but with better schools. Probably even a shorter commute.
Lincoln Square used to be middle class. But what is it now? The restaurants/shops all indicate middle class but the house prices say something else.
Why people are not buying is anybody’s guess.
We’ve already discussed this. The rentals are much nicer and in cooler buildings. You can move in with just $300-$500 (maybe even less, depending on building.) Some are throwing in free Internet/cable/hulu/Netflix. You don’t pay special assessments. You don’t have to put in a new bathroom every 8 years.
And you’re likely to live there just 3-5 years anyway. Then you don’t have to pay transaction costs when you move.
Chicago could become a renter class.
“Lincoln Square used to be middle class. But what is it now? The restaurants/shops all indicate middle class”
Yes, Goosefoot, Elizabeth and Band of Bohemia all indicate middle class.
What does it take to signal “UMC” for Sabrina??
“Chicago could become a renter class.”
The median Chicago resident is, and has always been, a renter.
”
Yes, Goosefoot, Elizabeth and Band of Bohemia all indicate middle class”
I wouldn’t consider those restaurants “local” ones
I mean I used to live near a really fancy restaurant or two and would I go to them? Probably not really more than once every few years… I doubt people living near those places are “regulars” there.
“I wouldn’t consider those restaurants “local” ones”
Sabrina wrote that the Lincoln Square restaurants/shops ALL indicate middle class. The valid objection would be that they are not “in” Lincoln Square, not that they aren’t “local”. There was NOTHING about regularity, simply a statement of ALL of them.
Under your statement, sonies, Alinea doesn’t count as a Lincoln Park restaurant. Once you take the special occasion places out, what can possibly indicate UMC v. MC apart from a handful of high-end boutiques??
“what can possibly indicate UMC v. MC apart from a handful of high-end boutiques??”
the amount of new/leased foreign luxury cars parked on the street?
“Sabrina wrote that the Lincoln Square restaurants/shops ALL indicate middle class. The valid objection would be that they are not “in” Lincoln Square, not that they aren’t “local”. There was NOTHING about regularity, simply a statement of ALL of them.”
A destination restaurant that isn’t “local” doesn’t say much about the neighborhood (remem Arun’s?). While you might be right that therefore not ALL lincoln sq restaurants indicate MC, that’s only in a v narrow sense.
You’d have to identify the type of restaurants that are only present in UMC neighborhoods and then show that they are present in lincoln sq. (I’m sure there are plenty of such examples, though we’d need chatter agreement on MC versus UMC first. Speaking which, what happened to jenny?)
“Under your statement, sonies, Alinea doesn’t count as a Lincoln Park restaurant. Once you take the special occasion places out, what can possibly indicate UMC v. MC apart from a handful of high-end boutiques??”
Alinea isn’t particularly a lincoln park restaurant. My wife bought an insanely expensive latte from someplace on lincoln, n of wilson, once. Close to $10 I think.
Waters School is in Lincoln Square and when breaking down the students demographically performs better than most schools, including top suburban schools. The school went from 90% low income and 300 enrollment to 40% low income an 650 enrollment in the last 10 years. It is now building an addition due to demand. Home prices have skyrocketed in the attendance area of Waters. Ravenswood has seen similar changes.
Amundsen High School has really stepped up its game and local UMC are sending their kids there now.
Of course Bistro Campagne, Goosefoot, Band of Bohemia, Elizabeth, Due Lire, Gather, Warbler are all great restaurants and hardly for the masses. All located in Lincoln Square.
Arun’s
——————
Gawd I loved that place. The little woman still has pictures of the basket made out of carrot shavings.
“The median Chicago resident is, and has always been, a renter.”
It has? The bungalow belts are all renters? Beverly, Morgan Park are renters? Chatham is renters? Hermosa? Jefferson Park? McKinley Park?
I disagree. Chicago is cheap. It’s always been easy to own. Hell, with all the mortgage fraud we saw a decade ago all over the city there were plenty of people buying.
Lincoln Park, lake view, uptown, Hyde Park, — high population density areas are rental areas.that means the median population count is renter. And remember, places like Jeff park have lots of two flats and three flats. Chicago is easily a renter population.
Around 44% of Chicagoans own their own home. http://www.civicdashboards.com/city/chicago-il-16000US1714000/homeownership_rate
The rate varies greatly across the city by income/ race/ area, which are all highly correlated.
“Amundsen High School has really stepped up its game and local UMC are sending their kids there now.”
Can you describe a couple of UMC families sending their kids to Amundsen? Parental education, occupation/income?
When have 50%+1 of Chicagoans been homeowners?
Answer? NEVER.
Hence–>median Chicagoan is a renter.
” new/leased foreign luxury cars parked on the street?”
why park on the street when almost every house has a 2 car garage?
Still something weird happening with the comments – just now reading through the comments on this post, and there are several that appear to have been rated by me (ie the rating is grayed out), but I hadn’t yet even read (let alone rated) those comments…
Is anyone else still having the issue with seeing other posters’ email info?
“Can you describe a couple of UMC families sending their kids to Amundsen? Parental education, occupation/income?”
I know parents that are Chemical Engineer, Civil Engineer, GC and Banker that send their kids to Amundsen. All have at least a Bachelors, some more. Don’t know the incomes, but all have SFHs in the area, which is not cheap.
“…sending their kids to Amundsen” I bet everyone of those kids are in the IB program. I really doubt any thinking UMC parent would send their kid to Amundsen genpop. The IB program is the only small beacon of light in the neighborhood high schools that are lucky enough to have them.
“Is anyone else still having the issue with seeing other posters’ email info?”
yes, just this morning in fact
“Is anyone else still having the issue with seeing other posters’ email info?”
Yes, as sonies mentioned, saw an email address as well this morning when first visiting the site.
“I really doubt any thinking UMC parent would send their kid to Amundsen genpop.”
It’s a way to gather some good material for an HYP essay. I went for a while to a HS that was perennially on worst schools in the state list (not Illinois). Really not so bad.
“Is anyone else still having the issue with seeing other posters’ email info?”
Yeah mostly the same ones and not people who have posted lately: melanie (who is she?); anon (not tfo); couple others I forgot.
“yes, just this morning in fact”
Thanks for the update. Those appear to be old. I don’t think it’s happening anymore. Probably caught in your cache now. Just clear it out.
And then let me know if you’re still seeing it.
Okay- I added a new commenting plugin. This one should just enhance the wordpress version we are already using.
For Gary- it has a subscription feature.
You can also sign in with your social media logins if you prefer.
Let me know how it goes with this new comment log-in. It should be better (fingers crossed.)
Okay- so apparently that comment plug in wasn’t working correctly since no one was commenting. Lol!
What a mess.
“Okay- so apparently that comment plug in wasn’t working correctly since no one was commenting. Lol!
What a mess.”
I didn’t even try to comment because the formatting looked so dreadful. This looks like back to normal at least.
The other comment form was set up to require a captcha, but there was no captcha available to complete.
I tried to comment but it asked for a captcha that didn’t exist like anon said
“I tried to comment but it asked for a captcha that didn’t exist like anon said”
This again. I think I tried this plugin before. Argh. That plugin was one of the most used “enhancement” to the wordpress built-in comments. I wonder why it doesn’t work right? Could just be this old site.