Market Conditions: Chicago January 2024 Sales Fall 3.4% as Median Price Rises 6.3%
Inventory has been near record lows in Chicago for months. This impacts home sales. You can’t buy what isn’t on the market.
January sales fell to the lowest levels since 2011, which was near the bottom of the housing bust.
From the Illinois Association of Realtors:
The city of Chicago saw a 3.4 percent year-over-year home sales decrease in January 2024 with 1,059 sales, down from 1,096 in January 2023. The median price of a home in the city of Chicago in January 2024 was $315,000, up 6.3 percent in January 2023 when it was $296,408.
Sales Data Since 2006 (thanks to G for the older data):
- January 2006: 2009 sales and median price of $258,000
- January 2007: 1850 sales and median price of $279,900
- January 2008: 1203 sales and median price of $290,000
- January 2009: 918 sales and median price of $205,000
- January 2010: 1237 sales and median price of $195,000
- January 2011: 1034 sales and median price of $150,000
- January 2012: 1123 sales and median price of $149,000
- January 2013: 1521 sales and median price of $157,000
- January 2014: 1383 sales and median price of $200,750
- January 2015: 1348 sales and median price of $220,000
- January 2016: 1398 sales and median price of $227,750
- January 2017: 1574 sales and median price of $255,000
- January 2018: 1444 sales and median price of $265,000
- January 2019: 1347 sales and median price of $255,000
- January 2020: 1462 sales and median price of $267,500
- January 2021: 1698 sales and median price of $310,000
- January 2022: 1831 sales and median price of $310,000
- January 2023: 1096 sales and median price of $296,408
- January 2024: 1059 sales and median price of $315,000
“In January, an increase in median sales price and a decrease in inventory are indicative of a steady drive in homebuyers,” said Drussy Hernandez, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and vice president of brokerage services for Coldwell Banker Realty in Chicago.
“The notable surge in single family sales price in a pinched inventory market demonstrates buyers’ commitment to making homeownership a reality.”
Statewide, inventory fell another 22.1% to 15,186 from 19,501 last year. In Chicago, inventory hit a new low in January, falling another 28.1%. Here’s the 3 year statistics.
- January 2022: 6,084
- January 2023: 5,329
- January 2024: 3,829
“The housing market is continuing its long-running trend of low sales and relatively high prices,” said Dr. Daniel McMillen, professor of real estate and associate dean for faculty affairs at the University of Illinois-Chicago College of Business Administration.
“However, consumer confidence has turned up markedly, and sales traditionally increase significantly in spring. We expect the recent trends toward lower inflation rates, interest rates, and unemployment rates to lead to a rebound in the housing market in the coming months.”
Days on the market fell 12.2% in Chicago to 43 days from 49 days last year.
The 30-year average fixed rate mortgage was 6.64%, down from 6.82% in December 2023. But that is still higher than a year ago, when it averaged 6.27%.
It seems like inventory falls every month to a new low.
What will turn this trend around?
Illinois’ home sales and median prices rise as the number of available homes shrinks again [Illinois Association of Realtors, Press Release, by Bill Kozar, February 22, 2024]
““However, consumer confidence has turned up markedly, and sales traditionally increase significantly in spring. We expect the recent trends toward lower inflation rates, interest rates, and unemployment rates to lead to a rebound in the housing market in the coming months.””
Holy Shilling Batman
Real Wages need to rise
HMAM ™ still rules
compare:
January 2007: 1850 sales and median price of $279,900
January 2008: 1203 sales and median price of $290,000
to:
January 2022: 1831 sales and median price of $310,000
January 2023: 1096 sales and median price of $296,408
January 2024: 1059 sales and median price of $315,000
I ain’t sayin that 2025 will be anything like 2009, but that’s not a comforting similarity.
Been catching up on cribchatter and I’m amazed that pretty much everything posted in the last 2 months is sold or under contract/pending.
Will be back in Chicago in May and we are going to be looking to downsize. I’m kinda scared by the low inventory.
https://abc7chicago.com/chicago-public-schools-grooming-child-sex-assault-abuse/14462021/
Jebus.
“Will be back in Chicago in May and we are going to be looking to downsize. I’m kinda scared by the low inventory.”
Properties are moving within days, Madeline. Let’s hope that by late spring/summer there is more inventory. It’s still early in the spring buying season. According to Crain’s, the record warmth and lack of snow has been a catalyst for buyers. They are out looking really early this year.
“I ain’t sayin that 2025 will be anything like 2009, but that’s not a comforting similarity.”
Why aren’t you comparing inventory anon(tfo)?
Isn’t that the real difference between 2008 and 2024?
As I’ve recounted on this blog, when I first started running it in 2007, Lakeview alone had 4,000 properties on the market. There are currently about 170.
You don’t get a price collapse without inventory. Are you saying that it’s going to surge by the thousands by 2025? If so, what would cause that? Higher mortgage rates didn’t. Foreclosures are relatively low. Even if you get mass layoffs later this year, it takes a lot for unemployed people to suddenly list their homes. But you’d need 2009 style layoffs.
At the end of January 2008 Lake View had 1048 properties for sale. January 2024 it was 139. That’s 5.5 months of supply vs. 1.0.
“At the end of January 2008 Lake View had 1048 properties for sale. January 2024 it was 139. That’s 5.5 months of supply vs. 1.0.”
Why use January 2008 and not 2009? How many were on the market in 2009? Has to be like 10 months supply given how slow it was, the millions of layoffs and that the economy was crashing.
Because you were talking about 2007 above and my data doesn’t go back that far so I looked at the closest date I had.
January 2009 had 1042 units on the market or 7.1 months of supply. The real glut occurred later in 2009 through most of 2011.
“Because you were talking about 2007 above and my data doesn’t go back that far so I looked at the closest date I had.”
Oh. I see. Yeah, the inventory was insane in 2007. That’s why I was doing 3 posts a day on this blog because I could. There were just hundreds of units to choose from.
I don’t think people realize how outrageous inventory is right now. I feel for buyers. It’s really tough out there. Multiple bids everywhere.
Would love Gary’s take on the NAR settlement:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/15/realestate/national-association-realtors-commission-settlement.html
It will be interesting to see what impact decoupling buyers agent commission from sell side will have. I suspect there will be some unintended consequences.
Fannie/Freddie will probably amend seller credit guidelines to accommodate buyer’s agent commissions since most buyers will not be able or willing to pay their agent out of pocket directly.
I can also see sell side agents offering bonuses to buyers agents to attract buyers. For example, if the buyers nickel & dime a buyers agent to say a 1% commission. The sell side agents may start offering bonuses to increase the buy side commissions.
This lawsuit never made any sense to me as commissions have always been negotiable. Consumers just don’t do it. FSBOs and discount agents have been around for decades. This is more of a consumer behavior issue imho.