Market Conditions: Chicago October Sales Fall For the Second Year in a Row
For the second year in a row, October sales fell year over year.
From the Illinois Association of Realtors:
The city of Chicago saw sales of 2,109 homes in October 2015, down 0.9 percent from last year when 2,128 homes were sold. The median price of a home in Chicago was $240,000, up 1.7 percent over October 2014 when the median price was $236,000.
Thanks to G for all the data on October sales going back to 1997:
October Chicago sfh/condo/th sales and median
- 1997 1,731 $129,900
- 1998 1,855 $138,000
- 1999 1,978 $159,500
- 2000 2,106 $174,710
- 2001 2,177 $200,000
- 2002 2,503 $215,000
- 2003 2,996 $236,000
- 2004 2,651 $241,000
- 2005 2,846 $268,500
- 2006 2,630 $278,000
- 2007 2,007 $285,000
- 2008 1,564 $261,000
- 2009 2,068 $215,000
- 2010 1,225 $183,000
- 2011 1,324 $162,000 (44% short/REO sales)
- 2012 2,009 $175,000
- 2013: 2,231 $218,500
- 2014: 2,128 $236,000
- 2015: 2,109 $240,000
“The start of the final quarter of the year was marked by plunging inventories, and that’s having a corresponding impact on sales and prices,” said Dan Wagner, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and senior vice president for government relations for the Inland Real Estate Group. “What’s crystal clear is there is still very keen interest in buying this late in the selling season, and there’s no indication that the zeal to own a home is diminishing.”
“The housing market appears to have returned to its longer-run annual pattern,” said Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the University of Illinois. “Distressed housing sales have declined to levels last seen in 2009 as prices continue to move upwards at modest rates. The consumer sentiment indices are once again moving in opposite directions suggesting that there is uncertainty in the way consumers view future prospects.”
30-year mortgage rates averaged 3.78%, well below October 2014’s average of 4.03%.
Inventories didn’t only drop in Chicago and the Chicagoland area. Nationwide, inventories of existing homes also fell in October year over year.
It’s unusual to see both falling sales and falling inventories in the same month. Usually, fewer sales means MORE listings, not less.
The tight inventory probably means prices will continue to rise heading into 2016.
Why aren’t Americans moving?
Will this be a real problem with the spring market?
Illinois home prices climb in October; Sales lower amid tighter inventory [Illinois Association of Realtors, Press Release, Nov 23, 2015]
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/11/13/americans-literally-arent-going-anywhere/
And I do find it odd that with inventories so, so low that market times are no shorter than last year.
Why aren’t Americans moving?
1) Because moving sucks
2) Because most people can’t find a place to move to, even though they might have more equity in their homes now than they used to, if there’s nothing to buy, then what do you do??
The other issue with moving is that you have dual income households more often than not.
Almost all of my clients who would be considered “higher income professionals” relocate for jobs, the spouse is either home maker or has a job that either allows telecommuting or is a job that is easily transferable in that you don’t need a large f500 company for employment – pharmacist, nurse, etc
I thought the market was “heating up!”…funny how that works…
Lack of inventory definitely hurts. But I think a lot of people are staying put because of wage stagnation, or in the case of millennials, because of student loan debt inhibiting lifestyle transitions.
Prices are only rising because the rich are the majority of buyers in a low volume environment. They’re willing to overpay (to an extent), and so it drives up comps. Knowing there’s a huge disparity between market value and intrinsic value is not only frustrating, but it keeps more people on the sidelines.
An interesting article I read this morning:
https://medium.com/the-ferenstein-wire/a-26-year-old-mit-graduate-is-turning-heads-over-his-theory-that-income-inequality-is-actually-2a3b423e0c#.afqhgtzg8
“‘Policy-makers should deal with the planning regulations and NIMBYism that inhibit housebuilding and which allow homeowners to capture super-normal returns on their investments.’ In other words, the government should focus more on housing policy and less on taxing the wealthy, if it wants to properly deal with the inequality problem.”
So, the 19-year average is 2,112.5, and the ‘average’ average (yeah, not a real mean) is $216,502.
the government should focus more on housing policy”
No thanks.
” or in the case of millennials, because of student loan debt inhibiting lifestyle transitions. ”
Just spoke with a north shore resident, not more than 15 minutes ago, who said both millennial aged kids are living at home after graduating college…
““‘Policy-makers should deal with the planning regulations and NIMBYism that inhibit housebuilding and which allow homeowners to capture super-normal returns on their investments”
I’m skeptical that a 26 yo MIT grad suddenly knows more than Thomas Piketty’s book that involves research dating back hundreds of years. Beyond that, there are plenty of ‘rich’ homeowners in Cali who can never sell or more because of both real estate and capital gaines taxes (only $500k for a married couple, so like my relative in Sunnyvale, his $1.2 million home he bought in the 70’s for a pittance has a hefty IRS tax bill…)
We just hired two milenials. They are now living in the loop and steeterville.
the two we hired live in wicker park and old town
The two we hired live in the east side of my basement and the west side my laundry room in NoCoCo. One has a phd in philosophy, the other a phd in art. They work 39.9 hours a week at minimum wage (part time) and then they uber for about 70 hours a week to make the outrageous rent I charge them.
“The other issue with moving is that you have dual income households more often than not.”
We didn’t have dual income households in 2005?
Come on.
Dual income families is NOT the reason there is record low inventory.
“And I do find it odd that with inventories so, so low that market times are no shorter than last year.”
That’s even weirder Gary. There’s a lot of things that don’t add up in this housing market.
Market times should be a week.
There. I said it.
If you aren’t selling the first week it is on the market- for real- you need to re-evaluate your price. Inventories are THAT low.
“If you aren’t selling the first week it is on the market- for real- you need to re-evaluate your price. Inventories are THAT low.”
I can’t get too specific here but let me just say that I’ve been surprised in this regard on more than one occasion as well. Sometimes when you least expect it the perfect buyer appears out of nowhere. Which just supports my belief that there is a hell of a lot more randomness in this business than most realtors are willing to admit to.
Besides low inventories, proportionately there’s a ton of overpriced crap in this market. Desirable, well-priced properties are few and far between and those who have a choice are waiting.
The most recent two millenials hires at my office live in Little Italy and Streeterville.
“there is a hell of a lot more randomness in this business than most realtors are willing to admit to.”
Many realtors cling to the Efficient Market Hypothesis: Fairly priced real estate will sell. Poorly priced real estate will not sell.
I have come to believe in the Inefficient Market Hypothesis: A heck of a lot of fairly priced real estate doesn’t sell. A heck of a lot of poorly priced real estate sells, despite all reason. There is a lot of randomness in the the real estate business. Deal with it.
Of course, there is a level of randomness. No two houses or buyers are exactly a like. You also have to factor in timing. The moon and stars align and a property sells. At the periphery, Realtors certainly can help, but I don’t think anyone buys a house because a Realtor “sold it”.
People buy houses because they need a place to live. Their choices are limited by the inventory available at a particular time. Either a house is available with the features and location at a price point they want to buy or it isn’t.
The people I know who’ve bought recently have had to move for space reasons (kids). They watched the places that went up in their desired areas that met their criteria, contacted the realtor through the website, and bought from there. It was very similar to buying a used car. These are older millennials.
realtors love the dual agency!!!
“but I don’t think anyone buys a house because a Realtor “sold it””
Bingo! Yet there are two other sad truths that go with this: 1) Sometimes people don’t buy a house because the Realtor did not handle things right and 2) Sellers desperately want to believe that the right realtor will “sell” their house for more money so realtors play off this.
“At the periphery, Realtors certainly can help, but I don’t think anyone buys a house because a Realtor “sold it”.”
I think you are all underestimating a good realtor.
The good ones know how to price.
The good ones know how to stage it (got clutter and 20 wedding pictures up on the wall? The good agent will make sure it comes down.)
The good ones know about all the other sales in the building (if it’s a condo), what is going on with special assessments/condo boards, even what will be built next door to the building. Yes- this helps a seller, as much as a buyer.
I can tell just by walking into a condo unit if it’s a Jenny Ames unit or some other random realtor. You think she and her team don’t have something to do with making sure the property looks a certain way? Of course she does.
Some properties will sell right away no matter who lists it. But if you’re up against 5 other units with the same layout in the same building- then, yes, how a realtor presents the property does matter.
Do they get high quality pictures taken? Not all agents do (as we’ve seen SO many times.)
And obviously, some of that has to do with the seller too. You can have the best agent in the world who knows exactly how to present the property but if the seller doesn’t want to declutter, paint the walls, get new curtains, put away the baby toys, clean up after the dog etc. – then it won’t matter.
I think the top 10 – 20% of realtors do all of this pretty well. Of course the bottom 80% can really screw up a listing. But finding out what is going on with the association and looking at the other sales in the building and even figuring out the impact of what is being built nearby are things that any decent agent can figure out pretty quickly.
We take buyers to plenty of showings and frankly I’ve never seen a difference in the presentation of a unit listed by the so-called building expert and a unit listed by just a regular good agent. In fact, the building expert often has multiple simultaneous listings in the building and I have seen that turn into a conflict of interest.
Sellers are a huge part of the problem. They generally want way too much, way more than their home is worth, and would rather have it sit waiting for the ‘right’ buyer rather than sell at market value in a reasonable time and move on. Realtors get their 6% commission not because they can sell the property but because they are paid to deal with unreasonable sellers. As a seller you’re paying your realtor 3% (6% but split) of the selling price to tell you bad news. If selling your home was very perfunctory and rational, we’d all be doing FSBO and keeping the 6% commission, especially in this day and age. But its not and the FSBO homes are the overpriced crapshacks with bad finishes that sit on the market because the owner thinks his faux normandy castle is worth $800,000 (but is really worth $500,000) and he’s too darn cheap and penny pinching to pay a realtor to get the job done right.
I can easily flip that around and say: Realtors are a huge part of the problem. They generally want way too little, way less than the home is worth, and would rather have it sell fast, instead of waiting for the right buyer to buy at market value in a reasonable time.
A quick, certain, and easy sale is the goal of many realtors. A homeowner who is wiling to accept more market time and less certainty can price higher.
“In fact, the building expert often has multiple simultaneous listings in the building and I have seen that turn into a conflict of interest.”
Agreed, though that may also help keep prices up in the building, if the building is distinctive enough. Of course, you can let everyone else list with the building “expert”, while you list with someone else and undercut the others slightly.
“vb on November 30th, 2015 at 10:09 am
I can easily flip that around and say: Realtors are a huge part of the problem. They generally want way too little, way less than the home is worth, and would rather have it sell fast, instead of waiting for the right buyer to buy at market value in a reasonable time.
A quick, certain, and easy sale is the goal of many realtors. A homeowner who is wiling to accept more market time and less certainty can price higher.”
Certainly you can flip that around and blame the realtor but evidence and price reductions don’t bear out your sentiment. And the fact of the matter is that realtors always list high on behalf of the homeowners. It’s always better for them to take the listing and list high, with reductions later, rather than not having the listing at all, because hey, there’s a small chance the ‘right’ buyer might come along and overpay!
long article
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/11/cities-economic-fates-diverge/417372/
various points:
In 1966, the average per-capita income of greater Cedar Rapids, Iowa, was only $87 less than that of New York City and its suburbs. Ranked among the country’s top 25 richest metro areas in the mid-1960s were Rockford, Illinois; Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Ann Arbor, Michigan; Des Moines, Iowa; and Cleveland, Ohio.
Since 1980, the states and metro areas with the highest and fastest-growing per capita incomes have generally seen hardly, if any, net domestic in-migration, and in many notable examples have seen more people move away to other parts of the country than move in. Today, the preponderance of domestic migration is from areas with high and rapidly growing incomes to relatively poorer areas where incomes are growing at a slower pace, if at all.
Since the quality and price of a city’s airline service is now an essential precondition for its success in retaining or attracting corporate headquarters, or, more generally, for just holding its own in the global economy, airline deregulation has become a major source of decreasing regional equality. As the airline industry consolidates under the control of just four main carriers, rate discrimination and declining service have become even more severe in all but a few favored cities that still enjoy real competition among carriers.
^^^
Something good about Chicago IMHO
“Agreed, though that may also help keep prices up in the building, if the building is distinctive enough. Of course, you can let everyone else list with the building “expert”, while you list with someone else and undercut the others slightly.”
So what usually happens is that the realtor has two listings and one is cheaper than the other. Buyer sees the more expensive listing and doesn’t seem that interested or maybe they are interested. Listing agent immediately encourages them to see the cheaper unit because they want to make a sale.
“I think you are all underestimating a good realtor. ” and “there is a hell of a lot more randomness in this business than most realtors are willing to admit to.”
Rojas couldn’t sell my condo, even though I listened and did everything he told me (painted neutral color, decluttered, staged, etc)…Lucido got it done without any of that.
homedelete in a trolling mood typed “Realtors get their 6% commission…”
I’ll bite & bet that 90%+ of current MLS listings quote 2.5% coop commission indicating 5% is current market rate for commissions
Most co-ops are in fact 2.5% but sometimes the listing agent will charge more than 5% and still offer only 2.5% on the co-op.
“Rojas couldn’t sell my condo, even though I listened and did everything he told me (painted neutral color, decluttered, staged, etc)…Lucido got it done without any of that.”
Wait a minute. If one realtor made you paint it a neutral color and declutter, then when you hired the second realtor the painting was already done. So it’s not fair to say Gary then suddenly sold it without any trouble when you already did the work with the first realtor.
Additionally, the market probably changed from when you first listed it to when you later listed it. Or maybe you listed it with Gary at a more “realistic” price.
Good agents DO matter but not on every property. Sometimes it’s just market conditions. Or it’s the pricing.
And, to be frank, sometimes it take 6 months or a year on the market before the seller determines that, yep, they should have listed it for $50,000 less like the agent first told them. You can’t blame it all on the agent when it doesn’t sell. I’ve seen sellers being stupid too many times to count.
“Since the quality and price of a city’s airline service is now an essential precondition for its success in retaining or attracting corporate headquarters, or, more generally, for just holding its own in the global economy, airline deregulation has become a major source of decreasing regional equality.”
What it’s really about is that the big multi-national companies are just that: multi-national. Would Wrigley still be in Chicago if we didn’t have non-stop flights to Germany, China, Turkey, and Abu Dhabi? They have facilities all over the world and are constantly sending their employees to far flung locations. It’s certainly a lot easier from Chicago, than, say Kansas City or Oklahoma City.
It’s one of the reasons that Boeing moved here from Seattle. It was easier for their executives to get around the world from O’Hare than from Seattle.
ADM just moved its headquarters up here because the talent was better than what they could lure downstate. Could you get a Stanford MBA to move to Decatur? No. But you can get them to move to Chicago. And I’m sure the great international airport plays a role too. They are also multinational.
O’Hare and its expansion is probably one of the most important things Chicago has going for it in the quest for global talent. Big companies are still coming here even with our weather.
“o’Hare and its expansion is probably one of the most important things Chicago has going for it in the quest for global talent.”
seriously? I hear an airplane overhead and I make a complaint to the O’Hare noise commission. I’ve made over 3,000 complaints in the previous 12 months.
they should build Peotone or everyone should fly out of Rockford or Gary. screw O’Hare. yeah I know I bought near An airport. so freaking what.
Airports bring business, especially big international ones. That’s why everyone is rushing to build the latest state of the art airports worldwide. Look at Istanbul with its huge hub.
That’s why Chicago was going to build a high speed rail line directly linking O’Hare to downtown (one can still dream.)
“That’s why Chicago was going to build a high speed rail line directly linking O’Hare to downtown (one can still dream.)”
Oh…Daley would have gotten it done.
@Sabrina,
when I said I did everything Rojas told me to, that includes list at the price he recommended. So if it was unrealistic at the time, that is on him.
“Good agents DO matter but not on every property. Sometimes it’s just market conditions. Or it’s the pricing.”
which is why I quoted Gary’s line about the randomness of the market.
Gosh if I didn’t know any better, I’d swear you were a Rojas Apologist. 🙂
My buddy has opined that the kennedy should be buried and express lanes and rail should be built over it.
“That’s why Chicago was going to build a high speed rail line directly linking O’Hare to downtown (one can still dream.)”
Oh…Daley would have gotten it done.”
“seriously? I hear an airplane overhead and I make a complaint to the O’Hare noise commission. I’ve made over 3,000 complaints in the previous 12 months. ”
I know you’re tounge in cheek, but people actually do this… how’d you like to have that job at the noise comission or 311, eek
How Chicago doesn’t have an express train running from O’Hare to Loop is just mind boggling. I’d bet that alone would solve the gridlock on 90/94. I’m sure the taxi cab lobby is partly responsible.
Most US cities have no train at all from the airport to downtown.
“how’d you like to have that job at the noise comission or 311”
The 311 operators don’t have to listen to them, they would just transfer, and the “noise commission” is just a webpage. So you’re talking about a database that just gets ignored.
“How Chicago doesn’t have an express train running from O’Hare to Loop is just mind boggling.”
“Most US cities have no train at all from the airport to downtown.”
Even Toronto’s “express” is a two stopper, and is over $20 one-way.
Anyway, the more likely express line for ORD is using the Metra North Central into Union Station after the car rental center is completed.
“How Chicago doesn’t have an express train running from O’Hare to Loop is just mind boggling.”
I think the blue line to/from O’Hare is great. $5 and avoid traffic is great. ~45 min isn’t too bad for travel time.
“How Chicago doesn’t have an express train running from O’Hare to Loop is just mind boggling.”
Don’t you all remember? They were going to build this. The O’Hare station was going to be under Block 37. It was going to be an express train that would then run out to O’Hare.
But, alas, it was just a dream. Was going to cost too much.
“The O’Hare station was going to be under Block 37”
It’s there. Not built out, but $150m+ spent. Would be operating now if we had gotten the Olympics.
Speaking of, how’s the Rio prep going, Ze?
anon(tfo) posted “..more likely express line for ORD is using the Metra North Central into Union Station..”
Only if Metra greatly increases service – only 4 inbound trains ‘service’ ORD between 8am – 6:05 pm, when inbound service currently ends! No NCS trains service on weekends.
“Only if Metra greatly increases service”
It’s not a Metra service issue–that lack of service is a boon to a potential express on the ROW, as it reduces conflicts. And, anyway, if you could take metra + airport transit with a minimal walking portage (which will be possible once the car rental center is done), then there would be some reason to have more trains stop there.
The bigger issue is the freight traffic on the lines. The NCS is brutally slow. It’s like 40 minutes to cover the ~17 mile route from ORD to Union. The Naper express does 29 miles in 32 minutes–with some ROW work, the ORD run should be doable in 20.
All that said, it would still be like the Heathrow Express–subject to delays because of other trains being in the way. I’ve had that “15 minute” trip actually take 35 minutes, with the extra 20 spent mostly 300 yards from Paddington.
“I hear an airplane overhead and I make a complaint to the O’Hare noise commission. I’ve made over 3,000 complaints in the previous 12 months.”
And you wonder why your complains don’t do anything…
Maybe I should start doing the same for the Brown line that’s block and half away from my townhouse.
November sales were actually down slightly from last year (October was not despite what IAR said): http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2015/12/chicago-real-estate-market-update-november-home-sales-down-from-last-year/
It’s no surprise. Inventories are just stupid low but finally we are seeing shorter market times than last year. Anecdotally we’re seeing offers with far fewer showings right now but who knows why.
“How Chicago doesn’t have an express train running from O’Hare to Loop is just mind boggling.”
“Heathrow Express”
What’s the best (defined howev you would like) airport train in the world?
“What’s the best (defined howev you would like) airport train in the world?”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CiVSiO8ci28
I was going to bring up HK as well……. you can also check your bags at the downtown rail station before getting on the train to the airport.
“Speaking of, how’s the Rio prep going, Ze?”
You mean how the plan is for athlete’s to pay if they want A/C?
Arlanda Express has reindeer
“It’s no surprise. Inventories are just stupid low but finally we are seeing shorter market times than last year. Anecdotally we’re seeing offers with far fewer showings right now but who knows why.”
We’re going to go up against really hard comps in 2016. The housing market was super hot through August. It’s going to be difficult for sales to actually rise year over year when we’re at record prices and the Fed is going to start raising rates and we’re coming off of strong numbers.
I’ll be really interested to see what happens this spring. If the Fed raises once and doesn’t do anything for 6 months, then it’s a non-event. But if they start raising every other month or once a quarter, and the 10-year starts rising, then it’s a different ball game.
We saw what happened the last time mortgage rates rose significantly. The housing market backpedaled. Sales fell. And prices were a LOT lower then.
The one in Zurich has cows mooing 🙂
“If the Fed raises once and doesn’t do anything for 6 months, then it’s a non-event.”
This is what I believe is most likely to happen. Also, I think we will see economic downturn starting in 2016.
“I was going to bring up HK as well”
yeah, gotta be up there. right there at the terminal, can check bags when leaving at station incl in advance, and cheap (for an express train). even if I were not personally paying for it, I would prob take it rather than a taxi/car service, which I would almost never do anywhere (incl heathrow and narita express).
ams not bad.
the blue line here is really not bad either, at least coming from airport (so you don’t have to squeeze luggage on a crowded train), not that I can remem the last time I took it (maybe once w insane traffic).
“This is what I believe is most likely to happen. Also, I think we will see economic downturn starting in 2016.”
This might be true, I sense something weird in the air out there. Being in the trenches, businesses and people seem to be holding onto cash, like they’re reading the economic tea leaves. and I’ve noticed that business in general has slowed down but litigation is starting to ramp up.
“the blue line here is really not bad either,”
Really DZ? It take nearly an hour to get from O’Hare to down town. That is just unacceptable. They should reduce the stops and have an express for say $15 instead of $2-3.
“Really DZ? It take nearly an hour to get from O’Hare to down town.”
How long does it take to drive during rush hour?
“How long does it take to drive during rush hour?”
I can drive to Yorkville faster than downtown Chicago at 8:00 a.m. on a weekday. Yorkville is 55 miles away and my office downtown is 16 miles. That’s a ridiculous statistic for qualify of life purposes.
“Really DZ? It take nearly an hour to get from O’Hare to down town.”
“How long does it take to drive during rush hour?”
As I said, I can’t remem the last time I took it, but for other people it’s not so bad. As cdc notes, it’s pretty competitive w cars during rush hours. And it’s better than options in nyc, boston, lax, etc. Sure, compared to the hypothetical express train, it’s worse.
An hour’s not so bad.
“They should reduce the stops and have an express for say $15 instead of $2-3.”
and a separate car away from the plebes; it’s called public transportation for a reason
“and a separate car away from the plebes”
They should have a publicly subsidized helicopter for $15 a trip.
“They should have a publicly subsidized helicopter for $15 a trip.”
http://www.helimotion.com/
It’s interesting that they have this great helicopter service from the suburbs to downtown. It’s a couple of hundred dollars but probably worth the expense for an executive. Honestly, if the person works 20days/month – its about 8k/month (100k/year) – that’s not a lot of money (considering the convenience) for someone making 1million plus….
It’s sounds obnoxious, but consider an executive who makes 1million and has a spouse and 2-3 kids. Would you rather live in a 2million dollar house (which will not be that big) in chicago and send the kids to private school (at 120k/year for three) or live in a mansion in barrington/winnetka/hinsdale and send your kids to the great public schools there while enjoying your helicopter rides to work every day? It’s the same price…..
http://www.helimotion.com/
who has a helicopter landing pad in the suburbs?
Pulsenomics survey on bubble markets. Only one housing expert thought Chicago was in a bubble. https://pulsenomics.com/uploads/12_09_2015_HPES_Press_Release.pdf
Sabrina, are you one of the survey respondents on this thing? 🙂
“Only one housing expert thought Chicago was in a bubble.”
One also thinks that St Louis and Detroit are in a bubble. Methinks that one housing experts believes that *everywhere* is in a bubble.
Lawrence Yun is an expert, so was David Leareah.