Crib Chatter

Chicago’s September sales fell 12% as inventory remains low. It was the lowest number of sales since 2011, which was during the housing bust. (The picture above was actually taken in October 2011 in Lincoln Park.)

From the Illinois Association of Realtors:

The city of Chicago saw a 12.0 percent year-over-year home sales decrease in September 2024 with 1,643 sales, down from 1,867 in September 2023. The median price of a home in the city of Chicago in September 2024 was $350,000, an increase of 7.7 percent from September 2023 when the median price was $325,000.

September sales for the last 18 years:

• 2007: 2172 sales
• 2008: 1816 sales
• 2009: 1918 sales
• 2010: 1403 sales
• 2011: 1498 sales
• 2012: 1845 sales
• 2013: 2395 sales
• 2014: 2242 sales
• 2015: 2414 sales
• 2016: 2398 sales
• 2017: 2355 sales
• 2018: 2040 sales
• 2019: 2006 sales
• 2020: 2635 sales
• 2021: 2684 sales
• 2022: 2064 sales
• 2023: 1867 sales
• 2024: 1643 sales

Median prices for the last 18 years:

• 2007: $267,750
• 2008: $268,600
• 2009: $225,000
• 2010: $180,000
• 2011: $190,000
• 2012: $188,900
• 2013: $230,000
• 2014: $249,000
• 2015: $250,000
• 2016: $260,000
• 2017: $275,000
• 2018: $285,000
• 2019: $292,250
• 2020: $322,350
• 2021: $320,000
• 2022: $320,000
• 2023: $325,000
• 2024: $350,000

“In September, closed sales trended down, but the need to buy and sell was still evident in the decrease of days on market and increase in median sales price,” Erika Villegas, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and broker and owner of RE/MAX In the Village said. “With interest rates hitting their lowest in September, and knowing a transaction cycle is around 60 days, we should see the impact of dropping interest rates in the coming months.”

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell to the lowest level of the year at 6.18%. That was down from 6.5% in August and 7.2% in September of last year.

However, there is a lag on the mortgage rates as buyers tend to lock in the rate and then buy several months later.

September’s low rates won’t really show up until October and November closings.

Also of note, rates have risen again here in October.

Statewide, inventory continued to recover off of its lows for the second month in a row, gaining 6.1% to 22,284 from 21,010 homes last year. Inventory still remains extremely low statewide.

But Chicago inventory continued to drop, falling 8.9% to 5,254 homes.

For comparison purposes, for the month of September:

• 2021: 9,478
• 2022: 8,163
• 2023: 5,768
• 2024: 5,254

“Our three-month forecast expects statewide closed sales activity in the fourth quarter of 2024 to be about 6 percent lower than levels seen in the fourth quarter of 2023, and prices of single-family homes are expected to increase by nearly 14 percent by the end of the year compared to December 2023,” said Geoff Smith, Executive Director, Institute for Housing Studies at DePaul University in Chicago.

“Homebuying conditions continue to be challenging with affordability remaining a concern, but there are some signs that these conditions may ease with statewide housing inventories increasing starting in the second half of 2024 and recent declines in mortgage interest rates.”

Condo sales slumped more than single-family-home sales with condos down 15% to 976 while SFH sales were down just 7.2% to 667.

Number of days on the market in Chicago fell to 29 from 30 last year. It was also 30 days in September 2022. 29 to 30 days seems to be the new norm.

Given the lag in mortgage rates, and that they are again rising, are they a non-factor in influencing Chicago’s market for the rest of the year?

Illinois home sales fall while inventory and median prices rise in September [Illinois Association of Realtors Press Release, October 23, 2024]