Market Conditions: Chicago Sales Soar 53.1% in October YOY
We’ve already been chattering about the October sales data for awhile thanks to Gary’s posts in the comments about how great the numbers are.
October 2011 saw a 7.9% increase over 2010’s dismal numbers. 2012 saw a 53.1% jump along with a median price increase (but we know that the median can be skewed by the type of sales.)
From the Illinois Association of Realtors:
The city of Chicago saw a 53.1 percent year-over-year home sales increase in October 2012 with 2,009 sales, up from 1,312 in October 2011. The condo market in the city of Chicago showed a sales increase of 55.8 percent, going from 781 units sold in October 2011 to 1,217 sales in October 2012. The median price of a home in the city of Chicago in October 2012 was $175,000, up 8.0 percent compared to October 2011 when it was $162,000.
That is the highest October sales number since 2006.
Here’s G’s sales data for October since 1997:
October Chicago sfh/condo/th sales and median
1997 1,731 $129,900
1998 1,855 $138,000
1999 1,978 $159,500
2000 2,106 $174,710
2001 2,177 $200,000
2002 2,503 $215,000
2003 2,996 $236,000
2004 2,651 $241,000
2005 2,846 $268,500
2006 2,630 $278,000
2007 2,007 $285,000
2008 1,564 $261,000
2009 2,068 $215,000
2010 1,225 $183,000
2011 1,324 $162,000 (44% short/REO sales)
IAR: 2012 2,009 $175,000
“There’s a great deal of end-of-the-year excitement,” said REALTOR® Zeke Morris, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and Operating Principal and Managing Broker, Keller Williams Realty, CCG. “Typically our numbers are down in the fourth quarter, but we’re starting strong this year which is a good indicator that we’re beginning to catch up to other markets in Illinois. REALTORS® are working and gearing up to do more business.
“Although we’ve seen about an 8 percent drop in median condo prices, we’re making up for it in the number of unit sales and trending in the right direction,” he said.
“The modest recovery of employment conditions and stronger consumer confidence, along with low mortgage rates are responsible for the solid gain in housing demand,”said Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the University of Illinois. “Based on historical data dating back to 2003, year-over-year forecasts for median prices and sales are both encouraging.”
Was October 2012 the month we can say that Chicago’s housing market truly returned to “normal”?
By the way- I’m surprised at how subdued the IAR is about this data. It’s the best we’ve seen in 5 years.
Sales, median prices show gains in October in Illinois [Illinois Association of Realtors, Press Release, November 19, 2012]
Looks like I better buy now, lest I be priced out forever.
This is a dead cat bounce. Expect more price declines going forward. Everyone who wants to buy has already bought.
This data is not that meaningful.
HD – I disagree. Now that Quinn has rolled out Squeezy the Pension Python the pension crisis will be solved and real estate prices and transactions will go through the roof.
“Now that Quinn has rolled out Squeezy the Pension Python”
#thanksinadvance !!!
“Everyone who wants to buy has already bought.”
HD- Is that based on your unscientific sampling of 1, yourself?
I like squeezy, he wrapped about this dead cat right now!
“HD- Is that based on your unscientific sampling of 1, yourself?”
No, I looked at squeezey, he had a dead cat.
No CC topic yet on the tweaks to the tier system in Chicago?
http://www.suntimes.com/16439938-761/cps-tier-system-update-changes-chances-of-getting-into-selective-school.html
“Logan Square was the neighborhood affected the most, with nearly half of its census tracts going up to a higher tier level.
One tract in Logan Square rose from Tier 2 to Tier 4 — one of only two such jumps in the city.
Last year, when the area was Tier 2, a student could have gotten into Lane Tech High School with a minimum score of 768 points.
Now, with the area classified as Tier 4, it will take an estimated minimum of 789 points to get into the highly selective high school, according to the Chicago Public Schools.
Software engineer Matthew Bosch, who has two preschool daughters and lives in a newer town home complex, is one of the reasons the area jumped two levels.
“I love living in this neighborhood because my kids don’t think about anybody’s color,” he said.
But he added, “I worry about my kids being able to test into an elite school.”
BWAHAHAHA I love it! The SWPL Bosch still has no idea the system is rigged against him and his family. Maybe if he thought if he was just nice enough to those “of color” it would all work out. He’ll learn soon enough when his girls don’t get into an elite school the reality of CPS.
“The SWPL Bosch still has no idea the system is rigged against him and his family. Maybe if he thought if he was just nice enough to those “of color” it would all work out. He’ll learn soon enough when his girls don’t get into an elite school the reality of CPS.”
My goodness Bob, why do you hate white people so much? Somehow I think you’re the liberal apologist and not them.
“Although we’ve seen about an 8 percent drop in median condo prices”
I know a few of my friends can’t find anything good between $400k to 800k range. Lack of supply not demand
Squeezy the Pension Python? Wow, just after we’ve endured all kinds of Twinkie jokes over the weekend? Not to mention a certain Ms. Broadwell? The sexy euphemisms (at least that’s what they sound like) are rolling like thunder lately!
““I love living in this neighborhood because my kids don’t think about anybody’s color,” he said.
But he added, “I worry about my kids being able to test into an elite school.””
L-O-L!
wow what a hypocrite
HD its not white people I hate its the southbound/matt Bosch set. whom mr Bosch by his own admission his primary criteria was diversity & he seems quite hopeful his kids will test into Young. I’d like to place a bet how much ideological diversity there is in mr. Bosch’s newer construction townhome development. Also another glaring fact I forgot to mention–the income thresholds in all 4 tiers _dropped_, because Chicago median income dropped.
Mr Bosch is the kind of SWPL who lives his life in abhorrence of being called racist and structures his actions. I bet those high flying SWPLs buying new townhomes there just love alderman Moreno too. I’m gonna check in on his fam in 5 years & see whether theyre still in LS my suspicion is no.
Bubba Bob said “BWAHAHAHA I love it! The SWPL Bosch still has no idea the system is rigged against him and his family.” Bob is an envious odious hater who mainly hates on those doing better than he. Mr Bosch has a professional position in life, has a wife, has a family & owns a townhome – all excellent accomplishments which continue to elude any chance of happening in hater Bubba Bob’s life.
“what a hypocrite”
He didn’t say anything about not thinking about other people’s (a) social class, (b) economic class, nor (c) education. How is being concerned about education hypocritical wrt skin color?
(I mean, yeah, it’s reasonable to call BS, on several levels, but I don’t see hypocrisy).
So if inventory is at record lows and all crap, yet sales numbers are increasing, what exactly are people buying? Are people just scooping up the crap with a smile, or are there properties that are priced right and sell so fast they are never counted in the inventory numbers?
Its implied, anon, god damn you are the master of picking nits
“Its implied, anon”
Weak sauce. So you think it’s impossible to both value both (a) color-blindness/anti-racism/whatever-you-want-to-call-it, and (b) maximal educational opportunities for you kids without being a hypocrite? Really?
Well its not exactly rocket science that shows that color/socioeconomic background plays a factor in the performance of almost every single school in Chicago, to say you’re color blind and then unwilling to subject your children to that sort of thing is a bit hypocritical, although I do see your viewpoint of trying to get the best education for your kids too… I still think its a bit of a ridiculous thing to be whining about.
Buyers are purchasing thecrapthats for sale, but its slim pickings.
“to say you’re color blind and then unwilling to subject your children to that sort of thing is a bit hypocritical”
Feel the same way about black parents who want their kids to grow up around other black kids, but want them to go to Payton? Like I said, don’t see the *hypocrisy*; that’s all.
“I still think its a bit of a ridiculous thing to be whining about.”
I *completely* agree. Especially since the kids are 6 and 4 (or whatever–not going back)–for the parents of a *current* 8th grader, I can understand some frustration. But there’s basically no way the system will be exactly the same in 8 years when his oldest is going thru the admissions process for HS.
“So if inventory is at record lows and all crap, yet sales numbers are increasing, what exactly are people buying?”
Anything that is halfway decent and priced reasonably sells quickly. Market times have plummeted along with inventory. Just about everything decent is getting multiple offers – especially the investment properties. It’s not unusual for a good investment property to go in one week with 4 offers. So all that’s left is crap. It’s like when you get to the grocery store at 8 PM on a Saturday all that’s left in the strawberry bin is a half full package and a moldy package.
What is selling?
I agree with Gary. Anything that is decent sells pretty quickly. I don’t know about multiple offers though. I’ve only heard of this on some remodeled houses in the neighborhoods with no inventory (like Lincoln Square.) I’ve also heard about it in the $500k to $650k price range in Lincoln Park. New construction is also selling very, very fast even in crappy locations. People want “new” and will buy it no matter where it’s located.
Investors are still very active. They’re buying a lot of properties- and sometimes don’t care what the interior looks like (even in multi-unit properties.) I’ve heard stories of a LOT of newbie landlords. It makes me nervous for the market.
I keep wondering if we’re going to see a lot of properties listed in the spring to take advantage of these market conditions OR are too many homeowners still just too far underwater to list? We’ll see.
“I know a few of my friends can’t find anything good between $400k to 800k range. Lack of supply not demand”
Brando- that is a HUGE price range. Very different buyers in that range. What neighborhoods are they looking in?
Remember- this is the “off-season.” The inventory is ALWAYS lower this time of year (but this year is especially bad.) I’m telling all the buyers I know to just wait until the spring.
I doubt any buyer is listening to sabrina.
“The SWPL Bosch still has no idea the system is rigged against him and his family.” Bob is an envious odious hater who mainly hates on those doing better than he. Mr Bosch has a professional position in life, has a wife, has a family & owns a townhome – all excellent accomplishments which continue to elude any chance of happening in hater Bubba Bob’s life.”
The Mr. Bosches and Southbounds of the world are so clueless in life. Despite already being disgraced for his pathetically retrograde and backwards and anti-scientific views on abortion, Southbound continues to exhibit his talent at being an overall lemming for idiotic leftist brainwashing. Mr. Bosch’s comments are just plain stupid. Because the people of Logan Square are full blown racists, they are ideologues of the highest order, and Mr. Bosch is ignorant to think otherwise. I am willing to bet anyone here $10,000 that Mr. Bosch doesn’t know who Federico Garcia Lorca is, why a Logan Square CPS school is named after him, and why the people who did this hate everything America stands for. He’s just so clueless with his life, I feel deeply sorry for the children he raises. They will be ignorant just like him and Southbound, who’s IQ is not high enough either to get anything truly important in life.
Don’t worry Bob, these people doom themselves to superficial lives as followers, too bad it has to affect the good people in America who stand for something positive. Bob is right, and Southbound can only name-call in response.
“Software engineer Matthew Bosch, who has two preschool daughters and lives in a newer town home complex, is one of the reasons the area jumped two levels.
“I love living in this neighborhood because my kids don’t think about anybody’s color,” he said.”
What a complete dumbshit. The Lorca folks just LAUGH at the stupid, clueless SWPL types. It’s embarrassing for these people, yet Chicago is full of them (SWPL types).
2000 2,106 $174,710
2001 2,177 $200,000
2002 2,503 $215,000
2003 2,996 $236,000
2004 2,651 $241,000
2005 2,846 $268,500
2006 2,630 $278,000
2007 2,007 $285,000
2008 1,564 $261,000
2009 2,068 $215,000
2010 1,225 $183,000
2011 1,324 $162,000
IAR: 2012 2,009 $175,000
The median is at 2000 levels…what recovery?
“Bubba Bob said “BWAHAHAHA I love it! The SWPL Bosch still has no idea the system is rigged against him and his family.” Bob is an envious odious hater who mainly hates on those doing better than he. Mr Bosch has a professional position in life, has a wife, has a family & owns a townhome – all excellent accomplishments which continue to elude any chance of happening in hater Bubba Bob’s life.”
Bubba? haha nice try. Trying to equate me with another very prominent and stupid stereotype I find it comical as it shows how absolutely fragile your worldview and paradigm is, just like Mr. Bosch.
You’re like him: so afraid of being equated with non-apologists white people like me you’re willing to stoop to any level to try to prove it. This includes buying a 400k+ newer townhome where most SFHs within a quarter mile are half the cost. But again, your & Mr. Bosch’s economic advantage over the natives should never enter into any sort of resentment as, afterall, you aren’t racist!
No I’d say Mr. Bosch (and like you) aren’t doing better than me by any stretch of the imagination. I’m guessing he stretched his finances to buy said overpriced townhouse in “hip Logan Square” (see attached WSJ article–don’t think the SWPLs at the national rags haven’t found out about it) so he can’t provide private school tuition for his little girls (and no doubt no Y chromosome could come from Mr. Bosch to his offspring).
For Mr. Bosch it’s the elite CPS schools he so chooses or off the the burbs for his little princesses when the time comes. But this is a common scenario among white couples in Chicago why is Mr. Bosch’s so special? Because he is the quintessential example of the lost SWPL who doesn’t realize that the CPS machine is rigged against him and his offspring’s success–actively! I can’t stop laughing at his disassociation from reality. He is the ultimate fool and very much deserved. His kids should better test higher to gain admission to said elite prep school to only show they aren’t poisoned by the same groupthink paradigm that the Bosch’s and their neighbors in their newer construction townhome development (and gentrified “census tract”) undoubtedly possess. Without being exposed to any sort of dissenting opinions growing up (aside from reality) they’d better test higher.
“Hip Logan Square”, per Wall St. Journal Journalists LMAO
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303296604577454872180605752.html?mod=WSJ_hp_EditorsPicks
The NYC based WSJ editors say Logan Square is hip and they talk about Malort! Let’s go buy a 400k townhome 😉
“I’d like to place a bet how much ideological diversity there is in mr. Bosch’s newer construction townhome development.”
You might be surprised. I have been. With The 60614 having given Obama more than any other zip in the 08 race, its demographics (college, professional population, etc.), and my inclination to live here, I had always assumed that LP was an exclusively liberal area. But I’ve met numerous Republicans here, at the playground, within my own development, etc. If anything, I’d call LP, and the northside in general, mostly moderate Democrat, and with a larger minority of Republicans than progressive liberal types.
Amazing how bob and dans hatred of white people is no different than the self-hated of white people among the white people they claim to despise. Oh the irony.
Homedelete said: “Amazing how bob and dans hatred of white people is no different than the self- hatred..”. On that note I’ve made the same decision I made years ago about life being too short to waste any time with frat guys who thought & act like Bubba Bob. Life is too short to spend anymore of it engaging with or responding to the vile lies and hatred contained in the sound and fury spewings of cc’s resident a-holes cka Bubba Bob & HelmutheadHofer (did you dream that up about HH/Dann signing a post as Dean Olds? Seems more likely Dann is one of Helmut Hofer’s younger, penniless former lovers.) It figures that purportedly ‘pro-life’ Dann picked an alleged murderer of a defenseless woman, allegedly killed in lieu of settling a divorce to emulate.). They lead empty lives so they have more time and inclination to waste time posting meaningless self aggrandizing drivel full of fury signifying nothing which I will ignore.
“If anything, I’d call LP, and the northside in general, mostly moderate Democrat, and with a larger minority of Republicans than progressive liberal types.”
I’d bet if you were to take a poll LP residents would look absolutely R next to those of Logan Square in Bosch’s census tract. You have an alderman in Logan Square openly trying to solicit the opinion of the Chick-Fil-A CEO on gay marriage so he can block a store from opening in his ward if the CEO’s personal opinion doesn’t match his ideology.
West Town and Logan Square are where the artists are flocking to. And it’s where those with money follow as they want to be seen as still “youthful and hip”. Either the Bosch’s think their new neighbors won’t recognize that they live in a home much more expensive than theirs/come from a different walk of life or won’t hold it against them. Or perhaps they just will remain insulated and interact with those in their development/immediate area as that’s far easier.
Maybe I was just dreaming it up but I swear there was a late night post where he signed off as dean olds, and then somebody else posted that helmet hofer was the boy toy of dean’s, and it was so creepy how he gets on here all anti-semetic and he’s really just this creepy old dude.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lv3MryZDsVs
Short clip of interview’s with Dean himself and of the *real* Helmut Hofer
HD, your correct there was a post not sure about the details.
Mr. Olds may have died late last year in CA, he would be over 70 years old by now. Either way, to post under that name is pretty weird.
” oilc (November 20, 2012, 1:50 pm)
HD, your correct there was a post not sure about the details.”
I don’t remember teh details. But dano’s choice of name is so odd. At least my name is just two keys that happen to be close to each other on a key board, a completely arbitrary name. Helmethofer has such weird connoatoins, a boy toy of dean olds, and yet he hates gay and lesbians people so much
“At least my name is just two keys that happen to be close to each other on a key board, a completely arbitrary name.”
I always assumed it was a play on words regarding Home Depot because you were bearish on the housing market.
I always thought since he was a BK attorney, he made people’s home obligations go away
“Remember- this is the “off-season.” The inventory is ALWAYS lower this time of year (but this year is especially bad.)”
Is it usually about 4-5 months of supply?
“Is it usually about 4-5 months of supply?”
Normally inventory goes down at this time of the year but demand goes down even more so months of supply goes up. For October it was around 4 – 5 months, which is the lowest it’s been in like 5 years.
HD–you’re stupid, having never considered more than one person can have the same name.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helmut_Hofer
If you can point out said post it might add some credibility to your claim, assuming the timestamp checks out–but I’m doubtful. Chances are the moniker was after the mathematician.
Bob sticking up for his man again….. so sweet 🙂
Wow bob. He loves his German boy toy too. How cute.
Milkster (May 3, 2012, 11:14 am)
” I don’t get it…..signed, Dean (not Dan) Olds”
Dan, “helmethofer” is a rather odd choice of moniker given this:
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1995-02-24/news/9502240187_1_murder-trial-father-window
I had never heard of Dean Olds and had to Google him.
Very sad and creepy story.
Interesting deet about Marina Towers at the end of the article.
Here you go, Helmut’s rants were deleted by Sabrina.
homedelete (May 3, 2012, 11:37 am)
helmethofer is a creepy ass dude, then signs off as dean olds. what a fucking weirdo.
What do you think of your boytoy now bobby?
helmethofer (May 2, 2012, 11:45 pm)
“LOL!! The only people who buy that stuff, are….sad to say it, but it’s true: Asians (Japanese tourists, Chinese). In Italy, no authentic person wears that stuff.”
Why did you edit out “JAPs” from the original post? ???? Trixies do not wear or buy Miu Miu, however the Miu Miu is in Barney’s. That equals JAPs, not hipsters, not Trixies, but JAPs. Fact. They exist, go visit Barney’s. Why is this so controversial? I don’t get it…..signed, Dean (not Dan) Olds
FOUND IT, BOBBY……….. time to eat crow
Mr. Bosch, from the Sun-Times:
“I love living in this neighborhood because my kids don’t think about anybody’s color,” he said.
But he added, “I worry about my kids being able to test into an elite school.”
The first sentence could have been made about several areas with decent elementary schools. However, none in the city is likely as cheap as Logan Square. Bosch could also have chosen to live in Oak Park without his kids thinking about anybody’s color. Evanston, too. Those places are cheap and pleasant enough, with good schools. Obviously, other factors were involved in his decision to buy in Logan Square, possibly even stupid ones, but we’ll never know what they were. He was undoubtedly selectively quoted.
Like all professionals, liberal or otherwise, he’ll figure the school thing out and do fine maximizing personal utility.
Nice find oilc, nice find. I knew I wasn’t smoking crack. I stopped that like a year or so ago. Notice the 11:45 p.m post too.
Mr. Bosch wanted a reasonable amount of space without neighbors above or below or a reasonable amount of money. There’s only a handful of places left on the northside that meet those qualifications. search for only single family homes under contract in the GZ and tehre aren’t many, and they’re all far higher than the average and/or median chicago area home price; and the closer you get to downtown, the more expensive it becomes.
“an alleged murderer of a defenseless woman”
Wait, let me get this straight. So, a homosexual or bisexual adulterer lawyer had secret gay sex with a young german. Then the german then killed the innocent heterosexual wife. Is that what happened?
And it’s the straight people that are the weirdos?
LOL….I’d say it’s the apologists like Southbound that favor all kinds of perverse novelities in life. His ilk are enablers of the two perverts, and a woman’s life is ruined over such narcissicism. Southbound has more in common with the bi-sexual lawyer and the boy-toy with no morals…. I have more in common with the only normal one, the heterosexual wife, the victim. You guys are all nuts!
PS what does “time stamp” have to do with anything? I’m reading all the financial blogs right now, and it’s 11:22 pm.
So many Idiots on this site sometimes: http://www.psychologytoday.com/articles/200911/intelligence-the-evolution-night-owls
Bob’s right, it’s the mathematician not the pervert!
http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Home-small-home-250-square-feet-in-SoMa-3271925.php#photo-2421458
“It’s not the last place a person might own, but a great place to spend three to five years as a young single … to build equity and move up,” said Hauser, principal of Hauser Architects in San Francisco. “You’re in a small space with great amenities and the resources of the city.”
I thought if its 3 – 5 years, then you should rent…
meant: there are alot of idiots on CC sometimes….
read and weep HD, :”time-stamp” what a joke!!!
Night Lights
Bedtimes and wake-up times for Americans in their 20s by IQ.
Very Bright (IQ > 125)
Weekday: 12:29 A.M.-7:52 A.M.
Weekend: 1:44 A.M.-11:07 A.M.
A previous study found that evening people are smarter than morning people. In a new paper, Kanazawa replicates the finding and provides a theoretical grounding. Because the nocturnal lifestyle allowed by electricity didn’t exist 10,000 years ago, we must now rely on general intelligence to override our early-to-bed instincts. So those with more of it stay up later.
“I have more in common with the only normal one, the heterosexual wife”
I think that’s what everyone is agreeing with you on.. like a heterosexual woman, you prefer the cock.
Ha!
Helmut definitely gives off that James “buffalo bill” Guam vibe.
Nice try in deflecting from your prior post.
Good luck trying to deflect that. Dean Olds or not, that’s such an unusual choice of a moniker.
I think Sabrina is Helmethofer.
“you prefer the cock.”
lol, yeah right….Ze wakes up from his drug-induced haze because he’s the one who prefers the one-eyed purple-Helmeted german soldier.
Vlajos: I’m actually the lookoutkid.
“I thought if its 3 – 5 years, then you should rent…”
Apparently not in San Francisco.
“I think Sabrina is Helmethofer.”
Is that a compliment? I can’t tell.
Because if I could “be” all of the people who post here- I should spend my time writing the Great American Novel instead of running this site. I’d be up for awards for sure. My character development would be incredible.
Vlajos- if you can’t figure out people’s voices on the Internet by now (and yes they DO have a voice- a distinct writing style)- then you never are going to.
I really do wish I had made up Clio though. Because I kind of miss him (and MiuMiu too.) That way I could just make them suddenly “reappear.”
Gary Lucido (November 19, 2012, 7:45 pm)
“So if inventory is at record lows and all crap, yet sales numbers are increasing, what exactly are people buying?”
Anything that is halfway decent and priced reasonably sells quickly. Market times have plummeted along with inventory. Just about everything decent is getting multiple offers – especially the investment properties. It’s not unusual for a good investment property to go in one week with 4 offers. So all that’s left is crap. It’s like when you get to the grocery store at 8 PM on a Saturday all that’s left in the strawberry bin is a half full package and a moldy package.
Gary, I’ve seen this in my non-GZ city neighborhood all year. An old bungalow in decent condition, but in need of updating is put on the market, within 2 weeks it’s pending. The homes are either estate sales or retiring empty nesters. New buyers all young families with kids.
Homes in the 200s and 300s in dates but livable condition sell quickly.
HD, I agree. These homes are 400 to 500 though.
Sabrina, I was kidding. At least Ze reappeared today!
Sabrina, I was kidding. At least Ze reappeared today!
Is Sabrina actually Ze???
I have the November sales data that the IAR is going to report in 2 weeks along with some other November metrics: http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2012/12/chicago-november-home-sales-increase-over-last-year/
Not anywhere near as good as October but still up 26.6% – nothing to sneeze at. That’s 17 straight months of sales increases and 19 straight months of contract activity increases. We can at least expect several more months of year over year gains.
Thanks for the update Gary. It’s always great information.
I’m not surprised by the low level of inventories. We’ve been seeing that for a couple of months. It’s pathetic!
But you seem to dismiss the number of distress sales (at 39.9% in November) as being not that big of a deal. Sure, it’s down from earlier in the year when it was over 40%- but that is still way higher than it should be in any kind of “normal” market.
I also think that there IS a big shadow inventory out there (you can see it just when looking at Zillow’s foreclosure info)- but the banks are being really smart about how they roll it out. Heck, I just saw a house come on the market in Irving Park that was taken back by the bank in July 2010. So the bank simply let it sit there, empty, for about 2 1/2 years before finally listing it. There are thousands of properties still to come just like that one.
“But you seem to dismiss the number of distress sales (at 39.9% in November) as being not that big of a deal. Sure, it’s down from earlier in the year when it was over 40%- but that is still way higher than it should be in any kind of “normal” market.”
It’s similar to where it has been the previous 2 years.
“I also think that there IS a big shadow inventory out there (you can see it just when looking at Zillow’s foreclosure info)- but the banks are being really smart about how they roll it out.”
Yeah, I found some data on shadow inventories that I want to share but I need to understand it first. As long as they’re not dumping it all on the market at the same time I’m not sure it’s a problem. We could actually use a bit more of that inventory on the market right now.
“I also think that there IS a big shadow inventory out there (you can see it just when looking at Zillow’s foreclosure info)- but the banks are being really smart about how they roll it out”
Makes sense to me.
Not the best post to note this in, but better than other recents:
Interesting on the price support from lower rates:
http://iaconoresearch.com/2012/12/05/how-fed-policy-distorts-home-prices/