Market Conditions: Chicago’s July Home Sales Lag the Suburbs and the Rest of the State
July’s sales data is out from the Illinois Association of Realtors.
While the housing market has been red hot across the country, Chicago notched only a 0.6% sales gain in July.
The city of Chicago saw year-over-year home sales increase 0.6 percent with 2,725 sales in July, compared to 2,708 a year ago. The median price of a home in the city of Chicago in July was $330,000, up 7.5 percent from July 2019.
Meanwhile, the 9-county Chicago metro area saw sales jump 12% and statewide, sales surged 14.6% year-over-year.
Here’s the July data since 1997 (thanks, once again, to G for the historic info):
- 1997: 1,694
- 1998: 2,139
- 1999: 2,186
- 2000: 2,013
- 2001: 2,410
- 2002: 2,661
- 2003: 3,105
- 2004: 3,429
- 2005: 3,487
- 2006: 3,088
- 2007: 2,819
- 2008: 2,200
- 2009: 2,040
- 2010: 1,631
- 2011: 1,666
- 2012: 2,088
- 2013: 2,902
- 2014: 2,725
- 2015: 3,082
- 2016: 2,780
- 2017: 2,698
- 2018: 2,803
- 2019: 2,708
- 2020: 2,725
“In July, we finally saw closed sales and median sales prices hold steady from the previous year, a great sign that the market is bouncing back from COVID-19,” said Maurice Hampton, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and owner of Centered International Realty. “It is clear that homebuyers are still looking for more options, however, as inventory continued to decline by 13.2 percent.”
Chicago inventory declined to 8,985 properties from 10,347 properties a year ago.
Statewide, inventory declined 33% to 41,779 from 62,338 properties.
Number of days on the market in Chicago was up 9.1% to 36 from 33 days. Statewide, it also rose 16.3% to 50 days.
The average 30-year mortgage rate fell to a new low of 3.02% from 3.16% in June and was down from 3.77% in July 2019.
“After a delayed start, Illinois’ summer housing market kicked off in earnest in July with strong home sales and price gains,” said Ed Neaves, president of Illinois REALTORS® and designated managing broker of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Snyder Real Estate in Bloomington. “Buyers, perhaps driven by record-low mortgage rates, are eager to get into an increasingly competitive market and find a home.”
If the home buying season was delayed a few months due to COVID-19, does this mean that the buying season is mostly over now?
And what to make of the low inventory?
Are some city buyers sidelined simply because there’s nothing they want to buy?
Illinois housing market surges in July pushing home sales and median prices higher [Illinois Association of Realtors, Press Release, August 21, 2020]
“July’s sales data is out from the Illinois Association of Realtors.
While the housing market has been red hot across the country, Chicago notched only a 0.6% sales gain in July.
The city of Chicago saw year-over-year home sales increase 0.6 percent with 2,725 sales in July, compared to 2,708 a year ago. The median price of a home in the city of Chicago in July was $330,000, up 7.5 percent from July 2019.
Meanwhile, the 9-county Chicago metro area saw sales jump 12% and statewide, sales surged 14.6% year-over-year.”
That’s unpossible!
No one wants to live in the suburbs
“ Chicago inventory declined to 8,985 properties from 10,347 properties a year ago”
Would be nice to see how this shakes out SFH Vs MultiFam.
“Would be nice to see how this shakes out SFH Vs MultiFam.”
I’ve got attached and detached graphed here on a months of supply basis: http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2020/08/july-chicago-real-estate-market-shows-strong-signs-of-comeback/
Detached inventory is definitely much lower than attached.
“Number of days on the market in Chicago was up 9.1% to 36 from 33 days.”
These are bogus numbers. Don’t know why they report them. Only take into account the most recent listing. The true numbers are 70 days for detached and 68 days for attached.
“These are bogus numbers. Don’t know why they report them.”
Suzanne researched it, and most people like feeling that they’d better buy now, or they’ll lose out.
“Suzanne researched it, and most people like feeling that they’d better buy now, or they’ll lose out.”
————————–
They LIKE feeling that way? Bull.
But, *Suzanne* researched it. She’s the best.
“Detached inventory is definitely much lower than attached.”
Inevitable. There are 70+ story high rises with condos going up. Hundreds of units. It’s going to create inventory.
But if you take out luxury, I would argue that even condo inventory is low.
“Would be nice to see how this shakes out SFH Vs MultiFam.”
Some may find this helpful even though it’s not the inventory numbers. In the month:
Single family home sales down 2.7% to 1021.
Condos up 2.7% to 1704 sales.
Equaled 2725 sales, up 0.6%.
Also, where’s Bob the Bear?
This data isn’t bearish. Not yet. You need a big inventory surge and/or several months of big sales declines in order to get price declines.
It’s not happening.
Even in Chicago. Even with riots, protests, and 30% unemployment on the south and west sides and 10% unemployment on the north side.
Inventory will take many months to build this cycle because there aren’t dozens of unsold condos and investors sitting on 5 condos that they’re not handing over to the bank. None of the speculation that was there in 2008 is here this time.
Buyers are buying to live in their properties.
It’s completely different circumstances than before with the exception that it seems like developers are over building on the upper end. But if they have the long time horizon (3 to 4 years) then they too can wait and get it absorbed several years from now.
“But if you take out luxury, I would argue that even condo inventory is low.”
—————————
Sabrina, you would argue with a chair.
“Sabrina, you would argue with a chair.”
And lose
“And lose”
Nah, she’d just move the chair to the opposite endzone and declare victory.
Anecdotally, just heard of two more people who’d recently bought homes in the city moving back to the suburbs due to the recent looting/pandemic. They’re worried the city won’t get back to the way it used to be in the wake of pandemic/riots. One had just bought in a downtown high rise about 1.5 years ago.
Sad to hear this. I also hear single-family homes near me on the North Shore are getting lots of eager bids. Not sure if that reflects people leaving the city.
Makes me wonder if I’m well positioned as a soon-to-be empty nester to put my home on the market and try to find a bargain downtown. I’ve been combing the listings and seeing prices fall in a lot of instances, but not to levels I’d consider great buys. Anyone else have thoughts?
Anecdotally here too: lost 5 families in our class since late spring to the burbs and NW IN. Thank you CPS and especially the filthy communists at CTU, you drove out almost 20 people who will be earning, spending and paying taxes elsewhere not named Chicago. On our block one family was replaced a single man. That’s a net loss of three right there. Cities need families. Children are the lifeblood of a region. Look how fast New York crashed, that’s because it’s no longer a place of deep roots, community, families. It’s completely transient. Maybe some pockets or in the outer boroughs it still is. I dont want to see Chicago succumb to the same fate. Sweet Home Chicago meant something when I was growing up. A city needs to be more than a playground for the rich, warehouse for the poor or frat house for the post college crowd.
My NY daughter is seeing cheaper rents in Manhattan and feels there is real leverage to get the rent reduced in her current place. Lots of her friends have bailed on the city. Like…what are all the people in the service/ entertainment industry supposed to do?
My SF daughter is still looking in East Bay. A real sense that people can’t get out of SF fast enough with crazy bidding wars on everything that hits the market there. Her current landlord in the city offered to lower her rent.
I can count on 1 hand the number of HS/college friends that are still in the city. They have all moved to the suburbs. I’m 36 and we all have 1-2 kids. All of these moves have happened in the last year with many happening in 2020. Anecdotal but these people arent moving back. And they are defying the conventional wisdom that states young people want to live in the city with children, unlike their parents and grandparents.
This Trib article today nails it, if you can get past the firewall:
https://www.chicagotribune.com/real-estate/ct-re-moving-looting-riots-protests-0826-20200826-ps432obfcbg3jhcinoyn4izbwq-story.html
marko: That was a brilliant post above. I always know Mnahattan was transient but you’re right, this time it really shows. The last time I was there on the UWS on Amsterdam and Broadway, it dawned on me that there is no actual culture there. It’s just all a facsimile of somewhere else, every store and restaurant harkening to someplace else. Like an adult Epcot center. Ironically, Trump is about as real NYC as it gets.
Did anyone see today’s news where the liberal woman in WashDC was surrounded and screamed at by BLM brats and haters? She was merely sitting at an outside patio at a restaurant in NW DC. Until something changes, white people will be sitting ducks and targets of anti-white racist and hate. Just sitting there. It’s going to get worse too. Democrat cities are getting dicey. Dan #2’s article sums up people who don’t want to be out after 6 pm. Wait until it starts getting dark early.
“The last time I was there on the UWS on Amsterdam and Broadway, it dawned on me that there is no actual culture there.”
Do you live there HH? We know you don’t live in Chicago. Or is it San Francisco?
Hilarious that you say there is no “culture” there. Lol. It was founded by the Dutch. That’s about all the culture you’re going to find as wave, after wave, of immigrants moved in. What a great city. Similar to Chicago but they’re just so much denser and cooler. But we’ve got the lake and all of our cool skyscrapers.
“I can count on 1 hand the number of HS/college friends that are still in the city. They have all moved to the suburbs. I’m 36 and we all have 1-2 kids.”
This is normal keef17x. Most Millennials can’t afford a house on the north side and if you’re going to buy in the neighborhoods where you CAN, like Portage Park or Jefferson Park, you might as well buy in Oak Park or Park Ridge where there is much more choice of restaurants and schools. You can still get a bungalow in the $400,000s there. And even cheaper in a lot of great suburbs.
You can’t even get a townhouse in many north side neighborhoods for that. And forget a house. And those who were living near Wrigley Field aren’t going to move to the South Side to buy the bungalow.
“Like…what are all the people in the service/ entertainment industry supposed to do?”
Gary- THOUSANDS of restaurants, hotels, theaters and the like are going to shut. In NY and every other city. Now that PPP is done and the cold weather will be here shortly, it’s about 60 to 90 days away from thousands of more unemployed.
So who cares if they left to go home Atlanta or wherever they grew up?
You daughter should definitely be negotiating with her landlord.
“One had just bought in a downtown high rise about 1.5 years ago.”
Taking a loss then? Wow. Tough.
If they can even sell it. After all, no one is buying in the city now. Only the suburbs. So all those fleeing, if they were owners in Chicago, are in for a really, really rough time. Could be YEARS before they can sell. If that. Gosh.
“I’ve been combing the listings and seeing prices fall in a lot of instances, but not to levels I’d consider great buys. Anyone else have thoughts?”
Dan #2: The prices aren’t going to fall because there’s no inventory. Sales remain at levels of last year. And inventory is 10% lower. That’s not a recipe for falling prices. That’s a recipe for RISING prices.
So unless inventory starts to spike, which, so far, isn’t happening, then you’re in tough luck on pricing.
Real estate is sticky. Will take years for prices declines to show up- and that’s only after inventory rises for a bunch of quarters.
“This is normal keef17x. Most Millennials can’t afford a house on the north side and if you’re going to buy in the neighborhoods where you CAN, like Portage Park or Jefferson Park, you might as well buy in Oak Park or Park Ridge where there is much more choice of restaurants and schools. You can still get a bungalow in the $400,000s there. And even cheaper in a lot of great suburbs.
You can’t even get a townhouse in many north side neighborhoods for that. And forget a house. And those who were living near Wrigley Field aren’t going to move to the South Side to buy the bungalow”
We have all bought $800k and up homes on the North Shore. Well, a few bought <$700k homes in the western suburbs. Space, schools, and safety have been the main drivers.
The market up here is hawt. The listing below is not an anomaly.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Winnetka/1329-Trapp-Ln-60093/home/13788520
“We have all bought $800k and up homes on the North Shore. Well, a few bought <$700k homes in the western suburbs."
Which gets you a duplex down or TH, or a small or very dated SFH, in one of the "good" k-8 attendance areas on the north side.
"Space, schools, and safety have been the main drivers."
Space = price. Schools, too, to a somewhat lesser extent.
"The listing below is not an anomaly."
96-price + CPI = $1.27m As long as it is mechanically/structurally sound, a steal, even with all the painting and wallpaper stripping that has to happen.
btw, were I in the market this year, and choosing bt city houses and suburbs I would consider, that Winnetka house would have been 100% on the list. Way better value than most of what’s available in the city in the category.
“After all, no one is buying in the city now.”
“Sales remain at levels of last year.”
Wait a second…which is it? Is it sizzling or not?
“Wait a second…which is it? Is it sizzling or not?”
Given that everyone on this blog says that “everyone” is fleeing, the city is dead and will never come back, Chicago sucks, the property taxes and violence will end it forever, I’d say it’s sizzling given that properties continue to sell within days of being listed. IN the city.
“We have all bought $800k and up homes on the North Shore. Well, a few bought <$700k homes in the western suburbs. Space, schools, and safety have been the main drivers." Right keef17x. This is my point. For $800,000, you cannot get a single family home (mostly) on the north side, lake side neighborhoods. Might be able to get it in Ukrainian Village and some west side hot neighborhoods. But you're not getting land or space. And if you can work from anywhere and don't have to take the train, why not go to one of the far flung suburbs and get some land?
“Given that everyone on this blog says that “everyone” is fleeing, the city is dead and will never come back, Chicago sucks, the property taxes and violence will end it forever, I’d say it’s sizzling given that properties continue to sell within days of being listed. IN the city.”
You really enjoy creating strawmen.
anon TF0
so for the listing
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Winnetka/1329-Trapp-Ln-60093/home/13788520
on the monthly redfin lists property tax at 828 a month which seems low while
under financial info it lists taxes at 24k which sounds more like it.
why the discrepancy? algorithms need spanking?
“Given that everyone on this blog says that “everyone” is fleeing, the city is dead and will never come back, Chicago sucks, the property taxes and violence will end it forever, I’d say it’s sizzling given that properties continue to sell within days of being listed. IN the city.”
lmao, yeah Chicago is a dumpster fire of problems but the real estate market keeps transacting like it always does… SIZZLE!
“You really enjoy creating strawmen.”
You’re ignoring the truth and the data, JohnnyU.
Sorry- but the city isn’t dying. Yes, there’s movement around the city from downtown to the neighborhoods. And from the neighborhoods to the suburbs.
Did you read the Tribune article? The people featured were interesting.
1. A couple who are nurses who live in River North and are tired of the looting/protests. They want to move to Indiana- near the Dunes.
2. An older man who has lived in the South Loop for 13 years. Also has a condo in Boston. Has decided that Chicago isn’t worth it so he’s selling in the South Loop and will just live in Boston full time.
3. An older man (early 60s) who lives in a building owned by Loyola on the far north side who was freaked out that he had to get into the elevators and use common amenities with a bunch of students. He wants to move to small town America, maybe Quincy, Illinois.
So, what do these stories even tell you?
Not much.
People who are 70 and have a condo in downtown Chicago may accelerate their timeline for when they are going to move to Florida full-time (as they were already going there every winter anyway.) We’ll see turnover from the Silent Generation and the Baby Boomers.
GenX and Millennials who have kids in tight space, even in a condo, will realize that they really just want more space. They’re priced out of buying a house in their current North Side neighborhood so they head to the burbs.
Yawn.
None of this is any different than what we were already seeing. Some of it has just been accelerated and the Millennials are the largest generation ever so when they all decide around the same time to ditch the condo, it shows up in the data.
Things to look for that will tell the story that something different is going on:
1. Apartment rental inventory builds
2. Existing condo/townhouse/home inventory builds
3. Home sales start to decline in Chicago
Apartment buildings are doing extra promotions right now, for sure. But we’ll see what happens in 2021 as this recession deepens this fall. If you worked at Grand Lux and no longer are, are you going to move back home with mom and dad and wait it out at home until there’s a vaccine?
“lmao, yeah Chicago is a dumpster fire of problems but the real estate market keeps transacting like it always does… SIZZLE!”
Um…it is.
As long as inventory stays this low, things are selling quickly and prices are holding up.
“So, what do these stories even tell you?
Not much.”
Pot calling the kettle black
chichow:
“on the monthly redfin lists property tax at 828 a month which seems low”
I’d seen similar on a couple of redfin listings lately–I am assuming you, too, were logged in–think there was something being saved in the ‘customized’ calculator incorrectly–I’d seen 9% interest rates assumed for a couple of listing.
Pardon me for my ignorance, as I’m not in the real estate business. How do you keep track of the number of properties on the market now vs. a year ago, vs. 5 years ago, for instance? And average price? I know you publish monthly sales data here, which is great, but where can I go to dig deeper?
Thanks.
It’s a quagmire – and I’m in the business.
Do you want to know what was on the market at the beginning of the month or the end of the month or at any time during the month? How do you want to handle properties under contract at the end of the month? Suppose they were under contract at the end of the month but subsequently the deal fell apart?
So you can find sources of this information but you never know what you are getting unless you really dig deep. Realtors have sources of this info and we just keep using it knowing that at least the data was gathered in a consistent way over time.
Crain’s RE has a few negative articles out today. Chicago has a $1.2bn deficit staring us in the face. Ugh.
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/commercial-real-estate-0
“Things to look for that will tell the story that something different is going on:
…
2. Existing condo/townhouse/home inventory builds”
Guess that just happened this morning:
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/residential-real-estate/downtown-has-huge-oversupply-homes-sale
“2. Existing condo/townhouse/home inventory builds”
Guess that just happened this morning:
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/residential-real-estate/downtown-has-huge-oversupply-homes-sale”
Operation Goalpost Moving is HAWT
Repeat Operation Goalpost Moving is HAWT
“Operation Goalpost Moving is HAWT”
Wrong again, JohnnyU. Just give it up.
How can you constantly get it so, so wrong? Damn. That’s hard to do.
Again, that data includes several new condo buildings. It says Lakeshore East’s inventory, for example, includes a month’s worth of inventory in Cirrus, the new condo building there. How many months are because of the Vista listings?
Same with One Bennett Place. And several new buildings in River North. Are any of the Tribune Tower units listed? If they are, they would be included in the numbers too.
Lots of inventory at the luxury level. This is not a surprise. They have overbuilt it. Also lots of resales at the luxury price point in buildings like the Palmolive. Original owners turning over there (it’s been 14+ years.)
Inventory not that high at the lower price levels.
I’m not arguing that it’s like the neighborhoods, where it’s like 3 months of inventory on the north side.
But the headline is kind of misleading. And the article doesn’t give any examples of people fleeing the city other than investors who have decided to stop being landlords. Lol.
A lot of people in downtown high rises want to move for more space. A backyard or big rooftop terrace seems very cool right now.
And yes, 3.1 months worth of inventory in neighborhoods like Logan Square and Andersonville is definitely hot.
The city is not dying. Not even close.
“Guess that just happened this morning:”
But it’s not, if you actually read the article.
Lol.
It’s only an “oversupply” at the luxury level. Which has been true even before the pandemic and the looting.
The inventory includes some units in the new construction buildings. Yes, it’s going to take years for them to sell all 400 units in the Vista.
“Crain’s RE has a few negative articles out today. Chicago has a $1.2bn deficit staring us in the face. Ugh.”
Of course it does. Every city does.
This is why Nancy is not budging on the bailout. The WSJ estimates it is another 4 million people laid off nationwide if the cities and states don’t get a bailout. Will extend the recession out by another 2 quarters.
“But it’s not, if you actually read the article.
Lol.
It’s only an “oversupply” at the luxury level.”
Which article did you read?
Are $400k condos now “luxury”?
Lol!
“Which article did you read?
Are $400k condos now “luxury”?
Lol!”
She reads many, many articles and proceeds to butcher and contort them to fit her views
She’s really gotten worse than JoeZ.
Sabrina – “This is why Nancy is not budging on the bailout. The WSJ estimates it is another 4 million people laid off nationwide if the cities and states don’t get a bailout. Will extend the recession out by another 2 quarters.”
totally agree with you. doesn’t really matter, but I lean conservative, and grew up IN and live in actual Chicago city limits. I am kind of a gold bug and work in the finance business. And I think unfortunately Congress /must/ print. If anyone is kidding themselves pretending there is any other way, good luck to all of us.
“Are $400k condos now “luxury”?”
Huh?
He doesn’t talk about $400,000 condos in the article. There’s a couple trying to sell their 1200 square foot 2/2 for $589,000.
He talks about the listings in Cirrus. There are some $400,000 600 square foot 1-bedrooms in there, right? The 2/2s are much more. Only 21 of those are listed out of hundreds though. So “inventory” is much higher just because of that one building. Similar to the Vista. Hundreds waiting to be bought in there. All starting at $1 million and up.
So, yeah, a lot of the inventory is “luxury.” In all the downtown zip codes on the north side. That’s all they’ve been building the last 5 years. And now they’ve overbuilt.
I took a look at the actual data for “downtown” – the problem is in the Loop and the Near North Side. It’s been going on for a while but certainly got worse recently. December is when months of supply peaks so it will be interesting to see what happens this year. http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2020/09/is-everyone-really-abandoning-downtown-chicago/
Just posted my August update. Chicago sales were up by a healthy amount over last year but not as much as I expected. September has to be a lot stronger for that reason with really high pending home sales. Also, interesting divergence in inventory between condos and SFHs. Yeah, condos are out of favor but it’s not like they are hard to sell. Go figure.
http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2020/09/chicago-real-estate-market-poised-for-strong-september/
“I took a look at the actual data for “downtown” – the problem is in the Loop and the Near North Side. It’s been going on for a while but certainly got worse recently.”
Too much luxury inventory. There’s a reason nothing is happening at the Tribune Tower now. And no announcements about pre-sales which means they were likely not good.
And they opened that sales center before the pandemic.
North side neighborhoods are on fire. I can’t even post on properties because they go under contract too quickly.
“North side neighborhoods are on fire. I can’t even post on properties because they go under contract too quickly.”
Which neighborhoods? Attached or detached? Looking at Lincoln Park, Lake View, and Lincoln Square…for the most part average market times are the same to longer. Now, the medians are down, which means half the properties are moving faster but the other half are taking longer.