Market Conditions: Cook County Foreclosure Suits Probably Near Record High in 2010
According to the Sun-Times, the year end projections are showing 51,900 new foreclosure suits filed in Cook County Circuit Court in 2010.
The clerk won’t have the actual official number until the middle of January.
But it will apparently be among the highest on record.
- 2000-2005: averaged 12,000 to 15,000 annually
- 2006: 18,916
- 2007: 32,269
- 2008: 44,000
- 2009: 48,000
- 2010: 51,900 (not yet officially confirmed)
“What we’ve seen is a lot of shifts in where the growth is occurring and that’s mostly in the suburbs and among middle income and higher income” groups, said Geoff Smith, senior vice president of the Woodstock Institute, a Chicago-based non-profit research organization.
Smith said “persistent unemployment” is a common denominator in these cases.
He said people who lose their jobs — and have gone without work for long periods of time — can’t save themselves by selling their homes, because very often the homes are worth less than the mortgage they’re holding on them.
The article indicates it takes about 13 months in Cook County from when the foreclosure suit is filed to the homeowner being evicted.
That means that most of these 51,900 properties are likely not yet even owned by the bank. As we’ve seen from prior examples on Crib Chatter, once the bank even takes possession it can take anywhere from a few weeks to 6 to 8 months (sometimes longer) before the property is re-listed for sale.
What does this level of foreclosures in 2010 mean for the 2011 and even the 2012 housing market in Cook County?
The surging pain of foreclosures [Sun-Times, Lisa Donovan, January 3, 2011]
It would be interesting to see the breakdown by neighborhoods. I would bet that the majority are in the “fringe neighborhoods” – so i don’t know how badly those are going to affect the GZ and other nicer suburbs (where the majority of people – especially on this site- seem to be looking). Also, remember that although 52k sounds like a HUGE number (and it is pretty big), the number of people wanting to buy is liking several times this number – there just won’t be enough good foreclosed properties to go around – so I don’t know how much this should affect housing prices . I say “should” because, psychologically, it may affect it.
It does tend to concentrate in fringe areas. However, you do see a high rate in 60605 and 60601.
IIRC the major banks have roughly twice as many homes in default right now than they are currently processing in foreclosure.
This does not include modified loans – many, if not most, of which will redefault at some point in the future.
That’s why I just laugh at the naiveity of those who think 2011 is the year of the bottom. The shadow inventory is so appropriately named because it lurks in the shadows, out of sight, and nearly all bottom callers miss it, and yet it will drag prices down for years to come. The shadow inventory is your neighbor with a HAMP modification, or the guy across the street who hasn’t paid his mortgage in one year and he’s told no one on the block, and its that vacant house at the end of the street that looks great but no one lives there and its not for sale either.
Because of the shadow inventory, foreclosures will remain elevated for years and years.
Happy New Year! Hope it’s gonna be a good one.
HD – don’t you think that the “inventory” of prospective buyers far outnumbers the number of foreclosures? Also, remember that most of these foreclosures are not in the areas that most buyers want to move into. In addition, many of these foreclosed properties are not that nice – again not even on the radar for most buyers. Sure, there may be a foreclosure that pops up in Oak Brook, Kenilworth, The palmolive, Park Hyatt, etc. – but those are going to be few and far between (they will also be snatched up VERY fast). I think sidelined buyers are doing themselves a great disservice by expecting to get great deals on housing – it just isn’t going to happen.
I DO agree that the stalemate will continue in 2011 as these unrealistic buyers expect the bottom to fall and sellers refuse to budge on prices.
I think this is where we start to get more of the sad stories like the Kenilworth situation. People who really didn’t leverage aggressively (I would define that as more than 20% DP) but maybe bought a lot of house with the expectation that their lives would remain the same(not the people who expected appreciation to save them). Now they have burnt through what many would have consudered a stable emergency reserve and are still finding themselves in foreclosure.
I could hardly believe the story of the woman they feature in the article, and yet, I have a friend that did something very very similar; borrowed over her head and way over her income, quit her job because it was too stressful, burned through savings and her retirement account, is ineligible for food stamps because of the property she hasn’t paid on for almost 2 years now. I really can’t understand how people get so delusional on what they can afford to borrow.
I have worries about the shadow inventory, too. I think that most of the bargains will be snapped up by insiders with deep pockets, but how that turns out for them in the future is still an unknown. Will they buy so cheaply that they can still flip at a profit? or will they be stuck with a lot of properties that they can’t make much on, turning them into reluctant landlords or perhaps slumlords?
shadow inventory is just major cloud of uncertainty over the mkt and really will prevent any rise in RE prices for some time. take myself…26, single, >$100k income, no debt, >740 credit score, have cash for 10-20% down, but am very hesitant. i was/am close to putting in a bid on one place but well, if im married with kids in 6 years, maybe ill just continue to rent and save up for a larger down payment for a home in the northern suburbs. it’s all boomers out there, and theyre all nearing retirement. who is going to pick that supply coming onto the mkt? people in their early 30s who bought in ’05, have no equity, little savings, and $50k in student loans? the suburbs are going to be last to tick up but that is another discussion.
this isnt the stock mkt…im not going to wake up one day and real estate prices are 10% higher. it will be a very slow rise. im not going to be priced out of anything waiting an extra year to buy something.
I agree with Clio on this one.
Also, I think where the “bottom” is, depends on the neighborhood (possibly also by the type of housing — condo / townhouse / SFH / multi). The real estate “market” isn’t one homogenous market, it’s a collection of smaller markets. I’d bet some of those have already turned around, while others have much further to fall. Some areas are obvious long tern disasters, like the South Loop. Others might be anybody’s guess.
“It would be interesting to see the breakdown by neighborhoods. I would bet that the majority are in the “fringe neighborhoods” – so i don’t know how badly those are going to affect the GZ and other nicer suburbs (where the majority of people – especially on this site- seem to be looking).”
These stats have been broken out by neighborhood in the past- but I think the last time I saw it it was last year’s numbers. There’s no doubt that the highest foreclosure rates originally in the bust were in the subprime neighborhoods (or “the fringe” as you put it.) But that has been changing over the last year or two. Those foreclosures are slowing down now and they are picking up in other areas.
As the article points out, foreclosures are now invading the middle class neighborhoods mainly due to job loss and overleveraging.
I also question the health of a city where houses can sell for $10,000 and just 2 miles away they are listed for $1 million. Can you really have dozens of neighborhoods completely crushed by the bust while others are thriving? I don’t see how that is possible in the long run.
Here’s some neighborhood stats from a Chicago Journal article for just the month of September.
“September foreclosures filed in the South Loop’s primary ZIP code were higher per household than the city average. One in every 217 units in the area faced foreclosure proceedings, compared to the city average of one in every 286 units, according to realtytrac.com, a website which tracks foreclosures across the nation. South Loop foreclosure rates are higher in comparison to other trendy neighborhoods with a young professional base. During September, one in every 331 units in Bucktown were in foreclosure, one in 708 units in Lincoln Park and one in every 1201 units in Lakeview.”
http://www.chicagojournal.com/News/10-27-2010/South_Loop_condos_for_sale_as_development_goes_on_hold
” I also question the health of a city where houses can sell for $10,000 and just 2 miles away they are listed for $1 million. Can you really have dozens of neighborhoods completely crushed by the bust while others are thriving?”
This is very common in most countries outside the US – however, you can also see it in the US. I remember in Boston, there was a HUGE price difference depending what side of Mass ave you lived on. If you lived one block east, your townhouse could be 1.5-2 million – however one block west and the EXACT same townhouse would be 500-600k. No train or expressway and no difference in schools – just a “different” neighborhood.
“this isnt the stock mkt…im not going to wake up one day and real estate prices are 10% higher. it will be a very slow rise.”
Exactly! That’s why I don’t get why so many sellers are still priced so far above comps and won’t reduce. Do they think once the market eases up that prices will jump back to 2005/2006 levels?
Clio,
I think the fringe areas and Austin area took the majority of hits in the beginning (are there actually more hits to be take there?)
next you will see the portage parks, lincoln squares, logan squares, humbolts, then trickle up and if there is no recovery you will see a year where the green zones will have as many as belmont-craign did in 2008-09. but will it get that bad and take that long? i have no clue i am a random internet fictitious persona
jfmii – you may be smart in renting for 5-6 years if you know that your life situation will probably change – but then again, you have to run the numbers. If you rent a place for 1500/month, you will end up spending 90-108k in rent over the next 5-6 years (assuming rent doesn’t increase). Alternatively, if you bought, you could take the mortgage and real estate tax deduction and also gain money from appreciation (even if appreciation is 3% – remember that you are getting appreciation on the entire price of the house – not just your downpayment. This could really change your outlook about buying).
“This is very common in most countries outside the US – however, you can also see it in the US.”
It’s not common in the U.S, but yeah, it does exist. Ever been to Detroit and actually seen 8 Mile? It’s not just a movie. The road literally is the dividing line between haves and have nots. It’s almost shocking the difference that road makes. Just a mile further west from 8 Mile are large houses and nice suburbs.
That does NOT mean that Detroit and those suburbs are a functioning city or somewhere people want to live! That’s just the point I was making. Clio, you’re acting like it’s okay to live like that. I don’t want Chicago to be Rio or Mumbai where the rich have to have bodyguards for goodness sakes. We need a strong middle class. We need neighborhoods where every other house isn’t boarded up.
Portage Park is already getting hit really hard. I expect to have a lot of posts about that neighborhood in 2011- unfortunately. Once the spiral starts, it just keeps moving from block to block.
Another town also getting hit with a ton of foreclosures in Cook County is Park Ridge.
I think jfmii needs to remember that housing is a very illiquid asset. The uncertainty about being able to sell the asset in a reasonable period of time, along with extremely uncertain potential appreciation, makes it less of a dollars and cents calculation. Also, real estate taxes are about to rise around 15% in the next year or 2, without a corresponding increase in property values, related to the local government deficits.
Sellers aren’t lowering their prices unless they have to, or have enough equity and are able to.
Clio your completely ignoring price arbitrage. I may prefer to live in a certain building like the Palmolive but if the price discrepancies are great enough I will trade down…take more Sq feet, better fixtures, etc. You can still get the social stuff by joining East Bank or the Country Club in the suburbs and paying up for private schooling. Now the guy that can go to Palmolive may not go to a fringe market, but maybe he moves into a penthouse unit in a second tier building…and the guys in the second tier building move down the chain. While location matters it can’t completely ignore the other pricing factors.
I think price arbitrage works unless the trade-down markets have significant crime problems. Thats the only thing you can’t trade around with.
“I don’t want Chicago to be Rio or Mumbai where the rich have to have bodyguards for goodness sakes.”
Unless the ease up on the lending standards and make it a little easier and less scary to get a mortgage, I’m afraid that is what exactly is going to happen. House prices are NOT going to come down in the nicer areas (sure there may be one or two foreclosures that bring down the averages and sure, prices may be down 20% – but those areas are rebounding nicely and are very stable).
“jfmii – you may be smart in renting for 5-6 years if you know that your life situation will probably change – but then again, you have to run the numbers. If you rent a place for 1500/month, you will end up spending 90-108k in rent over the next 5-6 years (assuming rent doesn’t increase). Alternatively, if you bought, you could take the mortgage and real estate tax deduction and also gain money from appreciation (even if appreciation is 3% – remember that you are getting appreciation on the entire price of the house – not just your downpayment. This could really change your outlook about buying).”
this is why im at a crossroads…yes, i get the deductions and part of the mortgage is going to principal, but what if prices are 10-20% lower in 5-6 years? it looks like prices are on their way back down after the tax credit expired (see Case-Schiller), the Treasury rally is over, evryone is underwater, shadow inventory is HUGE, nobody can get credit, etc., etc. there are just so many risks with buying a home right now.
“Portage Park is already getting hit really hard. I expect to have a lot of posts about that neighborhood in 2011- unfortunately. Once the spiral starts, it just keeps moving from block to block”
compared to belmont-craigan and austin’s peak time, is it at those levels now or trending that way?
jfmii – I really don’t think prices are going to be lower in 5-6 years. In the nicer areas of Chicago, I think we already hit bottom (or are at the bottom). As the economy improves, people are hired and the shadow inventory/shadow buyers come out, you will see that housing will do just fine (just as it has done for the entire history of this country and the world). Remember a few things:
– there are a lot of wealthy people out there
– there are a lot of high earners out there
– there will always be a need for housing
– there will always be a great desire for people to live in great areas of chicago
things are NOT as bad as you think.
“evryone is underwater, shadow inventory is HUGE, nobody can get credit,”
Not true at all – not true at all!!!! The VAST majority of people who own homes are NOT underwater. Sure, SOME people who bought in 2004-2008 may be underwater, but MOST people did not buy their homes during that period. This is all hype created by the few that are underwater and in trouble (like the Kobors – seriously, do you think that Kenilworth is headed for crisis?). Give me a break.
It will be interesting to see how/if RE taxes are adjusted to align with the real reality in pricing. If you have two equivalent properties in 2005 that were valued at $500,000, but in 2011, one is worth $450,000 and the other $300,000, should they still have the same $8000 tax bills?
Sabrina, there is literally a wall built between parts of Grosse Pointe Park and Detroit. It is not like the slums abut the mansions on Lakeshore Rd. There is a “nicer” part of Detroit immediately against the boarder then it is OK on the GP side and rises steadily as you move toward Lakeshore Rd.
It is really shades of grey if you know the area but if not then the video should illuminte for you the stark contrast. This drive is on Jefferson, which runs from The Pointes to Downtown Detroit. They cross over the “line” at 1:02.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xPvMU6i46Ic
“The VAST majority of people who own homes are NOT underwater. Sure, SOME people who bought in 2004-2008 may be underwater, but MOST people did not buy their homes during that period.”
I think this is a lot of the explanation for the differences in foreclosure rates between neighborhoods. Lots bought in the South Loop at the height of the bubble — there was little to buy there prior. Most people in Lakeview probably bought well before the bubble.
“Not true at all – not true at all!!!! The VAST majority of people who own homes are NOT underwater. Sure, SOME people who bought in 2004-2008 may be underwater, but MOST people did not buy their homes during that period. This is all hype created by the few that are underwater and in trouble (like the Kobors – seriously, do you think that Kenilworth is headed for crisis?). Give me a break.”
right, but how many people borrowed against their homes during the bubble?
Unless you’re talking about where 8 Mile is called “Vernier” I wouldn’d classify anyone around there on either side as the “Haves”
Clio and Jmfii, it really is dependent on your situation. I think RE will probably be higher in a couple years, but in that time my capacity to earn will (ideally) grow faster. My needs in 5 years will be starkly different so I’m renting for now as cheap as possible and stockpiling cash.
“The VAST majority of people who own homes are NOT underwater.”
“In all, 23 percent of U.S. homes with mortgages were underwater at the end of June. Another 2.4 percent of homeowners with a mortgage had less than 5 percent equity in their home, making them more likely to end up underwater if home prices drop further.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/26/number-of-underwater-mort_n_696210.html
Not as bad as Deutsche Bank prediction 48% underwater, but if we estimate that half of all people are owning free & clear & the other half have a mortgage: that’s 1 in 8 that have an underwater mortgage.
I hardly consider that “vast majority”.
Bob – you don’t consider 87.5% the vast majority?
Also – just becaus somebody is “underwater” doesn’t mean that they can’t pay the mortgage. Sure, it is scary, but if they stick it out they should be fine.
Clio: no I don’t. Vast majority to me doesn’t mean seven out of eight. Then again its likely a vocabulary difference.
“Sure, it is scary, but if they stick it out they should be fine.”
Research indicates if cross a certain threshold (forgot specifically what it is) in terms of them being underwater they are much more likely to walk from the mortgage. This is what our policy makers are afraid of: if there is a huge wave of walkaways that forms it could devastate property values.
“this isnt the stock mkt…im not going to wake up one day and real estate prices are 10% higher. it will be a very slow rise. im not going to be priced out of anything waiting an extra year to buy something”
you are correct, it will barely be noticeable because real estate prices will likely follow the mostly (currently) non-existant inflation
and I hate the way people extrapolate these crappy stories into the real estate market as a whole… yes there are forclosures, sob stories and people who overleveraged themselves… but that happens even in normal real estate times.
The big story here in regards to pricing, is the ability for people who do want to buy (there are many of them) the ability to get financing and not be nitpicked to death over stupid overgeneralizing rules that the draconian banks have implimented to curb “shady” lending practices.
Its a super pain in the arse right now to get normal 80/20 financing, let a lone FHA financing, then try to get financing for a REO or short sale property…. GOOD LUCK!
If lending was brought into the 21st century in terms of underwriting standards, and processing, prices would have likely stablized… but these cheeseass banks won’t hire compitent people to work in the loan loss department because it isn’t a profitable venture for them.
“Research indicates if cross a certain threshold (forgot specifically what it is) in terms of them being underwater they are much more likely to walk from the mortgage.”
I agree that it is scary and most people don’t do well with anxiety/fear and so they WILL be tempted to walk away -this is why the government/policy makers should do something to make it harder for people to walk away. Actually, people don’t realize the problems that occur from walking away from a mortgage. Your credit is ruined for 8-10 years – basically, you will not be able to buy a house during that time (which is a LONG time). Also, your insurance and credit card rates will go up. In addition, when and if you DO buy a house, your interest rates will also be higher. Finally, if you have a family – do you think it is easy to find suitable rental properties? Not really – and if you do, chances are that you will be paying close to what you were paying for your mortgage.
sonies – you hit it right on the head – I completely agree. It is the lending practices that once again need to be modified. The banks and mortgage companies have gotten so ridiculous that it is virtually impossible to get a mortgage/loan. If they eased up a bit and weren’t so god damn stupid in their analysis, it would help things tremendously.
I feel sympathy for those losing their homes and understand how they could have gotten into that situation easily. My husband and I are pretty conservative financially but bought a place in 2000 with 10 percent down and a mortgage that was more than 4 times our combined income. Looking back, I see how crazy that was, but crazier still was that banks pre-approved us for even more than that, based on our good credit rating, career potentials (I guess) and their own stupidity. With a lot of luck, it has worked out for us since we aggressively paid it down and our incomes indeed rose somewhat, so that now even with a loss of one job, we can swing the payments. However, I can completely understand the people who over-bought in 2004-2008, under the impression that their home would continue to appreciate and their jobs would be theirs forever. There but for the grace of the cosmos go I.
jfmii: No, you certainly won’t be priced out by waiting a year, nor should anyone expect prices to increase by 10% anytime soon. Yet five years from now, I don’t think prices will be lower than they are today (at least not in prime areas), though they might remain flat.
In any event, you have to live somewhere. If you’re not too picky about location, then sure, you should seek out the best possible deal on a rental (and there are some great deals out there), and be diciplined about banking the savings. Me, I’m picky (hence my “unicorn” criteria), especially about location, and thus presented myself (and the Chatterati) with a challenge: find a rental that met all of my criteria for no more than what it would cost me to buy a certain place…otherwise, buy that certain place.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Inflation-Jumps-in-nytimes-130499028.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=
its coming guys… to a country near you
first china
now europe
see a pattern?
sonies, what do you think inflation will do to house prices?
Clio: “This is all hype created by the few that are underwater and in trouble (like the Kobors – seriously, do you think that Kenilworth is headed for crisis?). Give me a break.”
So, remind me again: at what price did the Kobors buy and at what price did their house sell after they were foreclosed on? No matter how hard you try, you can’t ignore the reality that prices have come down just about everywhere…
prop em up (no real appreciation), assuming lending resumes at a more historic normal rate 5 years from now we could easily have 5%-7%+ inflation, hell we’re at 3% y/y right now according to the BPP
TftinChi – look at what is available in Kenilworth right now – prices are not that low (and only minimally lower than 5 years ago). The Kobor’s house was an anomaly (and remember, it was bought immediately at the lower price). Of course there are going to be a few of these houses popping up here and there – but the majority of sidelined buyers are not going to be getting these houses. I scour the MLS EVERY SINCLE DAY looking for bargains – there just aren’t any worthwhile properties out there (and, if one pops up, there are multiple offers within the first day/hours). Many buyers are fooling themselves if they think that prices of surrounding homes are going to fall to these foreclosure home price levels – that will never happen.
Side note to Groove – there is a really cheap house in kenilworth – sure it is the “bad” part (west kenilworth) and the house is small – but the price is AWESOME – 350k!!!! Can’t do better than this in Kenilworth – no way.
Just so we are all talking about today’s real market. I took the 3 BR+ single family homes sales in Kenilworth over the past 6 months as listed by redfin. I used the original listing price minus closing price. Do you know what the numbers show?
Of the 22 homes sold during that time period, the average reduction in price is 14%. The biggest deduction was 23.9% (2,695,000 ask vs 2,050,000 close), while there was ONE sales that went over asking price of 0.8% (630,000 ask vs 635,000 close).
14% off of asking in what has been called a top neighborhood on the North Shore. This spring will be very interesting to watch, if sellers really are holding out because they believe they will get more for their property.
Note there were 3 or 4 properties on redfin which I could not get clean data for and are not in the above calculation.
clio – “don’t you think that the “inventory” of prospective buyers far outnumbers the number of foreclosures? ”
You are correct…the inventory of prospective buyers is huge! My nephew who is 18 and works part time would love to buy his own place….I also think my 6 year old niece dreams of her own palace too!
I am not sure if their income (if at all) can afford owning though….
These sidelined prospective buyers are sure to keep the market propped up or even bid up the market to fresh real estate highs in the next few years!
Thanks Dan. To me, this proves the point that no sub-market in Chicago is going untouched by the current RE troubles. Is Kenilworth faring better than fringe hoods/suburbs? Of course, but that doesn’t mean it is immune.
Of course, clio could be right that these uber-hoods have already hit bottom. But given the awful data that keeps rolling in, I would be careful about calling bottom anywhere in the Chicago metro area. I’m calling bottom for metro-wide prices in 2012 and feel like I’m being optimistic in that assessment.
“In the nicer areas of Chicago, I think we already hit bottom (or are at the bottom).”
clio, does this mean you think prices have come down?
clio, link for the $350k kenilworth house?
“clio, does this mean you think prices have come down?”
It would be stupid for me to argue that prices have not come down on certain properties in certain areas from 2005 levels. What I argue about always is HOW MUCH they have decreased. In Oak Brook, in the not so nice subdivisions, prices have decreased about 20%. However, in the nicer subdivisions, prices have only decreased about 10%. For new construction and land, prices have actually stayed the same or have even GONE UP!!! I don’t know why, but it is true.
In nicer buildings in Chicago, price declines are not that great. Sure there will be a foreclosure here and there (even in the nicer building) but the other units have not gone down in price.
“link for the $350k kenilworth house?”
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Kenilworth/623-Melrose-Ave-60043/home/28673515
Not bad. I bet clio would offer life coach lessons about growing up poor to lil groove or jfmiii.
“I could hardly believe the story of the woman they feature in the article, and yet, I have a friend that did something very very similar; borrowed over her head and way over her income”
What I can’t believe is:
1. They spent more than ~$25k on roof and kitchen for an $80k house. If not true, then the other spending was obviously so much less sympathetic as to ruin the story.
2. If not #1, that penalties and interest have added 60%+ to their debt.
3. That, while *still* “making too much” for a loan mod, and with 5 potential wage earners in residence, they couldn’t figure out $1500/mo.
Critical facts are absent from that story.
“Side note to Groove – there is a really cheap house in kenilworth – sure it is the “bad” part (west kenilworth) and the house is small – but the price is AWESOME – 350k!!!! Can’t do better than this in Kenilworth – no way”
there was one for 549k IIRC that was a better deal than the 350k one. It just need a update of the electric (it still met code i think) and cosmetic stuff but the size was sweet and the place was dang solid.
its off the market little after when i went to see it but i have a feeling this sprig it will be there again.
“For new construction and land, prices have actually stayed the same or have even GONE UP!!! I don’t know why, but it is true. ”
Are you gonna buy the gangste … union rep’s house? With the 4+ acres?
“Exactly! That’s why I don’t get why so many sellers are still priced so far above comps and won’t reduce. Do they think once the market eases up that prices will jump back to 2005/2006 levels?”
I think there has finally been a paridigm shift amongst Realtors. Last year I think you could always find one who would take your business and put your place on the market at any price in the hopes of finding a buyer/knife catcher.
Now even the most dense realtard will tell you that if you cannot afford to drop your price to be competitive, don’t bother putting it on the market at all.
Realtors, care to chime in?
anon – that is a pretty good deal – 3.6 million for a subdividable lot (8 lots). Houses in that subdivision go for between 900k and 1.2 million – so if you figure new consturction at 1.2-1.5 million and the land being 1/3 of that cost (500k/lot) you may be sitting on a very good investment. At 3 million cash, it could make sense and may be worth it. Over 3 million, the profit margin is not that great. I would definitely buy it at 2.6 million but I doubt they will sell this low.
The house in Kenilworth is on the wrong side of Green Bay road and it’s small, overpriced and crappy. PUKE. No wonder it’s been languishing on the market for 158 days.
“The house in Kenilworth is on the wrong side of Green Bay road and it’s small, overpriced and crappy. PUKE. No wonder it’s been languishing on the market for 158 days.”
It’s been an “approved” short sale for 2 business days. It’s a 4 br house in K’woth for ~$2200/mo. This will sell quickly *if* $350k is really a fully authorized price.
Again, PUKE.
“It would be interesting to see the breakdown by neighborhoods. I would bet that the majority are in the “fringe neighborhoods” – so i don’t know how badly those are going to affect the GZ and other nicer suburbs (where the majority of people – especially on this site- seem to be looking).”
51,900 = 2010 Cook County Foreclosure Suits (I assume they mean all prop types)
46,752 = 2010 Cook County Sales (all prop types)
Lincoln Park
195 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (25%)
772 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Lakeview
223 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (19%)
1,153 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Near North
515 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (33%)
1,543 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Hyde Park
53 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (42%)
126 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Lincoln Square
166 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (53%)
313 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
North Center
91 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (21%)
434 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Logan Square
362 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (71%)
508 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
West Town
299 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (35%)
855 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Jefferson Park
158 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (111%)
142 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Englewood
282 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (104%)
271 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Park Ridge
170 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (55%)
309 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Arlington Heights
360 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (66%)
545 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Schaumburg
488 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (95%)
512 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Oak Park
221 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (52%)
423 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Berwyn
577 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (155%)
371 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Calumet City
454 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (155%)
293 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Harvey
285 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (164%)
174 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Homewood
160 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (100%)
160 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Orland Park
100 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (23%)
435 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Evanston
278 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (40%)
690 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Wilmette
58 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (21%)
279 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Highland Park
113 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (39%)
293 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Deerfield
56 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (32%)
174 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Northbrook
165 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (44%)
371 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Glenview
194 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (44%)
440 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Lake Forest
56 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (25%)
228 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Libertyville
47 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (21%)
224 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Vernon Hills
167 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (88%)
190 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Hinsdale
42 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (19%)
225 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Downers Grove
158 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (41%)
381 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Naperville
427 = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (34%)
1,274 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Sorry about the jumbled order, I pulled them from a report but they should be by general area. I included the % for comparison purposes of the coming impact.
No doubt foreclosures are still moving up the property ladder. One outlier appears to be Highland Park, which seems to be more in step in the correction to its next door neighbors to the west than to the other upscale areas listed. In Chicago, the hardest hit areas are now showing flat to declining foreclosure filings and the growth is in the middle to upper class areas.
Note that these are the 2010 thru Q3 numbers. There was a rise in foreclosure filings in Q4 (to ~30% of 2010 total,) as well as a decline in sales. I expect the 2010 YE % of foreclosure filings to sales to be higher.
It’s safe to say that none of these areas will avoid further downward pricing pressure from foreclosures.
G, have any numbers for Des Plaines?, thanks for the numbers!
if possible irving park.
G, with the moratorium on forclosures in Q4, I wouldn’t expect an increase in the total #… but if so… ouch those are bad numbers
wow, those forclosure #s are UGLY. any idea what the SLoop is just for curiousity’s sake?
Wait a minute – why are those foreclosure numbers “ugly”?
G is listing the number of foreclosures compared to the number of sales. This actually is good news because it shows that the overall decrease in prices in many neighborhoods is because the relative number of foreclosures is so high.
If you compare the number of foreclosures to the number of housing units in a particular neighborhood, you will feel much better (the percentage will be closer to 1%
“Wait a minute – why are those foreclosure numbers “ugly”?
G is listing the number of foreclosures compared to the number of sales. This actually is good news because it shows that the overall decrease in prices in many neighborhoods is because the relative number of foreclosures is so high.”
It’s the number of initiated f/cs. 13+ months from potentially selling. So, good, and ugly, too, as those props, when REO, will be the market makers in 2012.
Sabrina said, “Another town also getting hit with a ton of foreclosures in Cook County is Park Ridge.”
I am not surprised. That is a close-knit little town that discourages renters and those seeking a starter or entry-level home in a real neighborhood more than any other I’ve encountered. It is grossly overpriced.
Irving Park
345 (+41% YOY) = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (107%)
323 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Des Plaines
432 (+47% YOY) = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (74%)
587 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Near South Side
216 (+42% YOY) = 2010 thru Q3 Foreclosure Suits (45%)
481 = 2010 thru Q3 Sales
Sonies, from Woodstock’s numbers:
Cook County foreclosure filings thru Q3 = 35,944
Cook estimated YE = 51,900
Estimate Q4 = 15,956 (31% of annual total)
thank you G.
I actually kind of dig that $350K Kennilworth home. I’d gladly wear the badge of being the poor man in town.
Those stats that G posted are astounding.
Portage Park?
How are you getting these numbers, G?