Market Conditions: December Sales Soar 17.3% in Best December Since 2006
Housing demand continued to be strong into the end of the year as December sales were up double digits year-over-year after sales were up 9% last December.
It was the highest December sales since the housing boom year of 2006.
From the Illinois Association of Realtors:
In the city of Chicago, home sales (single-family and condominiums) in December 2020 totaled 2,220 homes sold, up 17.3 percent from December 2019 sales of 1,892 homes. Year-end 2020 home sales totaled 25,999, down 0.8 percent from 26,217 homes sold in 2019.
The median price of a home in Chicago in December 2020 was $307,500, up 11.4 percent compared to December 2019 when it was $276,000. The year-end 2020 median price reached $316,000, up 7.1 percent from $295,000 in 2019.
- December 2004: 3719 sales and median price of $267,000
- December 2005: 2847 sales and median price of $283,000
- December 2006: 2241 sales and median price of $279,000
- December 2007: 1629 sales and median price of $287,000
- December 2008: 1263 sales and median price of $235,000
- December 2009: 1820 sales and median price of $208,000 (34% short/REO sales)
- December 2010: 1475 sales and median price of $166,000 (43% short/REO sales)
- December 2011: 1536 sales and median price of $156,000 (44% short/REO sales)
- December 2012: 1806 sales and median price of $185,000 (39.7% short/REO sales- according to Gary Lucido’s data)
- December 2013: 2137 sales and median price of $210,000
- December 2014: 2020 sales and median price of $228,000
- December 2015: 2077 sales and median price of $242,000
- December 2016: 1974 sales and median price of $260,000
- December 2017: 2058 sales and median price of $265,500
- December 2018: 1708 sales and median price of $251,500
- December 2019: 1892 sales and median price of $276,000
- December 2020: 2220 sales and median price of $307,500
“December created great opportunities for buyers and sellers. All signs are pointing to a robust January, and now is not the time to let off the gas,” said Nykea Pippion McGriff, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and vice president of brokerage services at Coldwell Banker Realty. “With sales prices up 11.4 percent and interest rates still low, buyers who are on the fence should be encouraged to make their move. Prospective sellers with home prices aligned with market needs should be encouraged to sell, with days on the market down 19.1 percent.”
The sales mix in Chicago still showed a bias towards single family homes as sales rose 25.1% year-over-year to 1,001. But condos were still up double digits as well, gaining 11.6% to 1,219.
In Chicago, average days on the market fell to 38 from 47 days a year ago, down 19.1%.
Statewide average days on the market fell to 42 from 57 days last year.
Chicago inventory was up 0.2% year-over-year to 7,594 from 7,578 properties.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate also cooperated declining again to an average of 2.68% from 2.77% in November.
It was down over a point from December 2019, where it averaged 3.72%.
“Housing sales and prices are expected to continue their positive trends into the first quarter of 2021,” said Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, emeritus director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the University of Illinois.
“A major source of continuing demand is likely to come from those seeking to relocate to accommodate opportunities to sustain the percentage of time spent working from home. Declining housing affordability and a decrease in rental prices may serve to dampen housing demand especially at the lower end of the price spectrum,” Hewings said.
Historically, the spring buying season begins after the Super Bowl, but the housing market remains strong in January despite another outbreak of the coronavirus.
Has the spring home buying season already begun?
Will inventory come on the market to provide relief for buyers?
Illinois housing market ends 2020 strong with December and year-end jumps in sales, prices [Illinois Association of Realtors, Press Release, January 22, 2021]
You don’t have to be a statistician to observe that it makes more financial sense to rent than buy in Chicago in most cases (that is, plan to hold for less than 10 years), particularly with the impending real estate tax hikes and uncertainty around the downtown business district. If remote work becomes the norm, the demand to live in the city will significantly decline.
December was so hot that The Loop went from 24 months of inventory all the way down to 10! Amazing!!
“December created great opportunities for buyers and sellers. All signs are pointing to a robust January, and now is not the time to let off the gas,”
AKA – “Buy now or be priced our forever
“December was so hot that The Loop went from 24 months of inventory all the way down to 10! Amazing!!”
H8er
You always hear about Chicago property being extremely undervalued but since appreciation sucks for most properties here, is it really that undervalued?
Realtor.com listings for 60611 zip code indicates more than 1000+ listings, and a mere handful under contract. Grim times for downtown Chicago.
Chicago is “undervalued” compared to other major cities. However, I think the issue is all our appreciation is kept in check with high property taxes.
Saw a house in Oak Park that looked interesting. $850k… property taxes of $28k! WTF? The property taxes are almost as much as the mortgage.
vs
Property taxes on a house $2.5 million house in Atlanta… $18k. Comparable $850k house in Atlanta? $6500 in property taxes.
“buyers who are on the fence should be encouraged to make their move”
Definitely no conflict of interest here. Has there ever been a time when NAR or their affiliates/members weren’t bullish and advising their customers to buy homes quickly (serious question)?
Let’s look at this press release from September 2009. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the housing market momentum has clearly turned for the better. “The recovery is broad-based across many parts of the country. Housing affordability has been at record highs this year with the added stimulus of a first-time buyer tax credit,”
https://www.illinoisrealtors.org/blog/nar-reports-pending-index-on-record-roll/
As a refresher, in September 2009 the US lost 263K jobs the 22nd month in a row of a negative print. The housing market didn’t begin to recover until 2011/2012 depending where you live. What a great time to buy….. definitely no conflicted of interest on this free advice.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_10022009.pdf
Nashville… seriously “hawt” market. Trying to convince wife to maybe move south. $1.25 million houses with property taxes less than $5k/yr.
$1.8 million house in Raleigh, NC. Another hot market. Property taxes of $3500/yr.
Love Chicago but at some point, you have to recognize we are getting raped financially and it isn’t sustainable.
“$1.8 million house in Raleigh, NC. Another hot market. Property taxes of $3500/yr.”
That one would end up with an unfortunate reassessment–Wake County rate is ~0.88%, so that’s more like $15k in taxes. Still waaaay lower than Chicago-metro, of course.
“Nashville… [] $1.25 million houses with property taxes less than $5k/yr.”
Also unlikely to survive a sale. Davidson county tax for residential is ~1.05% of AV in ‘urban’ area, and ~0.95% in ‘non-urban’ areas. Taxes would be at least in the ballpark of $10k.
Looked at a place that’s asking $1.25 (last appraised for assessment in ’17, for ~$825k), and the taxes went up *33%* from ’19 to ’20–with no change in assessment–from $6500 to $8700.
Again, less than half the tax rate here, but not nearly as low as you think.
“Property taxes on a house $2.5 million house in Atlanta… $18k. Comparable $850k house in Atlanta? $6500 in property taxes.”
Where are these metro ATL places with tax rates meaningfully below 1%? I poked a bunch of places near both price points, in Fulton and out, and found only ~1% of market value taxes, unless the listing used 2017 taxes, or the property was assessed at a steep discount to current ask.
1-ish percent *should* be the norm, subject (maybe) to special assessments for neighborhood infrastructure or services, so those all hit that mark so much better than Illinois now.
“Again, less than half the tax rate here, but not nearly as low as you think.”
Schools and services matter. What are your costs if you have to pay for private school?
You get what you pay for.
“Nashville… seriously “hawt” market. Trying to convince wife to maybe move south. $1.25 million houses with property taxes less than $5k/yr.”
Nashville is fun. It’s exploding with new buildings, restaurants, hotels. The infrastructure can’t handle it. No public transportation except a few buses so everyone drives everywhere. Small streets not meant to handle that traffic.
They ARE building that new international terminal at the airport which will help bring in even more international tourists and jobs.
It gets seasons, though, so if you still like that it’s worth checking out.
Still a small town though. Gossip travels.
“Realtor.com listings for 60611 zip code indicates more than 1000+ listings, and a mere handful under contract. Grim times for downtown Chicago.”
No offense, but there are probably several new buildings in that list.
But there’s no doubt that they overbuilt in the luxury condo market. There are several hundred of those sitting around which is pressuring prices. But if you have a lower priced, unique product, it will go pretty quickly. Even downtown.
“December was so hot that The Loop went from 24 months of inventory all the way down to 10! Amazing!!”
But I thought the downtown was doomed?
How could that be if inventory is dropping at all? Who would be that stupid to buy JohnnyU? Why is ANYTHING selling?
Oh wait. Because it’s NOT doomed.
As I’ve said, the bottom is already in in both rentals and purchases. If you aren’t buying now, it’s not going to get any cheaper when the economy reopens and the downtown comes roaring back.
But this was the same arguments you all were making in 2012 at the bottom of that market.
Dang, you all are really bad market timers.
“You don’t have to be a statistician to observe that it makes more financial sense to rent than buy in Chicago in most cases”
Um…no KK. Totally disagree.
You would have been a fool to rent in the West Loop or Bucktown/Wicker Park over the last 10 years. Would have left a lot of money on the table.
Same with Jefferson Park, Avondale.
One of my friends bought 7 years ago in Jefferson Park for $205,000 and just sold for $290,000. Far better outcome than renting. Rolled it over into a new house in Ohio.
“ How could that be if inventory is dropping at all?”
Sellers pulling listings is one possibility
“Who would be that stupid to buy JohnnyU? Why is ANYTHING selling?”
People that don’t understand risk reward? People with plans to stay < 8 year? People that listen to the likes of you and JoeZ?
“ One of my friends bought 7 years ago in Jefferson Park for $205,000 and just sold for $290,000. Far better outcome than renting. Rolled it over into a new house in Ohio.”
I’m sure your “friend” is real.
So $18k in realator fees
$4k/yr x 7 years of property taxes = $28k
Loan fees
Since you like to say everyone wants new, they had to have put money in, right?
Yeah they made a killing
And why would your “friend” move to Ohio? Doesn’t jive with everyone wanting to live in Chicago
“Definitely no conflict of interest here. Has there ever been a time when NAR or their affiliates/members weren’t bullish and advising their customers to buy homes quickly (serious question)?”
Our block has realtors emailing and texting people local crime reports to scare them, absolute scum profession and cant wait for the internet to make them completely obsolete. They are just a another tax / fee / cost in the pockets of the American household.
“Schools and services matter. What are your costs if you have to pay for private school? You get what you pay for.”
I’m sure all the northsiders paying $25,000+ in property taxes so the CTU can call them racists, privileged and murderers for wanting their kids to get educated in the schools they pay for like 90% of the rest of the country would not agree.
“But I thought the downtown was doomed?”
There’s no actually meaningful difference between the MOI for November and December, yet Rodkin got a breathless article about how screwed residential in the Loop is. I’m expecting another article about how great the Loop bounced back already.
It’s still about 14-15 months of inventory, NSA, same as it was in November, and October. We won’t have reasonable data one way or the other until at least March contracts are reported, and probably not until May sales are reported.
“Nashville is fun. It’s exploding ”
to soon sabrina, too soon
sonies: Assuming the road’s open, you getting a room somewhere Thursday night? Friday morning is shaping up to be multiple feet and sunny.
“There’s no actually meaningful difference between the MOI for November and December, yet Rodkin got a breathless article about how screwed residential in the Loop is. I’m expecting another article about how great the Loop bounced back already.”
And this supports your thesis that Chicago is doomed because of… the Loop?
LMFAO.
By the way, a $9 million penthouse just closed in Lincoln Park.
But everyone is fleeing! Oh wait- they’re not.
The sizzle is on. Stock market hits new highs every day. The rich are rolling in cash right now. They want to spend it. Real estate is hot again.
This will be good for the city because there is a LOT of inventory in luxury condos. Let’s get some of it off the market.
“And why would your “friend” move to Ohio? Doesn’t jive with everyone wanting to live in Chicago”
Yet again, JohnnyU has NO CLUE.
Columbus, Ohio is one of the hottest cities in the country.
I also have friends who moved recently to Cincinnati.
“By the way, a $9 million penthouse just closed in Lincoln Park.
But everyone is fleeing! Oh wait- they’re not.”
The “everyone is fleeing” narrative is for renters and to a lesser extent condo owners. I don’t think you can have a “vibrant city” post pandemic if the recent college grads and renters <35 don't move to/stay in the city. The suburbs have seen no discernable change in renal vacancies whereas the city has and the loop has its highest vacancies since 2002.
The rental market is not coming back in 2021 as live-events are quickly becoming a 2022 event (maybe 25% – 50% capacity on outdoor events in the second half of 2021). I'd almost go so far as street/neighborhood festivals of a few hundred a couple thousand won't be back outside of the local farmers market until spring/summer 2022.
Further, the office vacancy rate keeps increasing and I would venture the consolidation over the past 10 years of suburban satellite offices into one central hub in the city is dead. We are at the beginning stages of what the long-term effect looks like.
Small suburban satellite offices make more sense now than one central place. The offices need to be where the people are and that's not near the Central Business Districts now – Having multiple satellite offices each in a Lincoln Park, Oak Park, Naperville etc. for a few dozen employees makes more sense in developing a culture and potentially saving money than a large centralized location full of amenities.
These <35 year old renters are going to have a very tough time moving from the loop to the neighborhoods in a few years as well due to "gentrification fears". The hodgepodge of further restrictive building/zoning ordinances which we see in and around Logan Square and Pilsen will continue to grow as the long time residents of these neighborhoods continue to resist any modicum of change and neighborhood groups controlling what gets or doesn't get built grow stronger politically.
What's the point in renting and thus living long-term around the loop if nothing is going on after work and you are only going into an office 2 – 3 days a week post-pandemic. Why pay 2K a month to rent or $2K – $3K a month to live in a condo if you can pay the same or less, get twice the space, and have more amenities?
The Wealthy who can afford million dollar homes will continue to be fine in their neighborhood(s) and the long-term neighborhood renters who can't afford to buy will resist more 3 – 6 flat condos that cost $500K – $1MM out of fear their rents will go up.
“And this supports your thesis that Chicago is doomed”
Why are you quoting me and addressing someone else??
Find ONE comment of mine that suggests I think “Chicago is doomed”. ONE.
You won’t. And not just because you won’t even try.
You’ll just continue with your alternative facts, and goalpost moving.
“I also have friends who moved recently to Cincinnati.”
Hopefully they’re not radio journalists. They don’t even have office walls there.
“They don’t even have office walls there.”
Just as effective as Trump’s wall, costs less and no chance or it falling over into the river.
Just my personal opinion, but I really think that data like this is pretty anecdotal and meaningless for describing general trends, unless you dig into the mix of what is selling now, and try to figure out why, etc. It’s not a normal market and normal price action.
This data doesn’t mean that the median price or value of all properties went up – it might mean that people who had more valuable and higher-priced places decided that it was time to leave. This could mean that there were more sales of higher priced homes, probably more single family homes. People who bought for a million or whatever in a good spot to stick it out for the long term and are now saying, I’ll get what I can now and get out. They didn’t wait, they didn’t try for the best price, they said they’re done. That’s what I see anecdotally from what I know of.
Case-Schiller does show a similar pop with their (I think better) matched pair methodology,
which is good. But I don’t buy into the idea that we’re going to be going up 10% YoY consistently anytime soon. I’m personally more worried that this pandemic was the catalyst for a lot of high earners to leave the city, and CPS if their kids were in there, and I think that’s a strongly negative long term trend for the city. Just my opinion, but I’m a pessimist here.
“Stock market hits new highs every day. The rich are rolling in cash right now. They want to spend it. Real estate is hot again.”
Is Real-Estate as hot as GameStop, AMC Theaters, and Bitcoin? Literally millions are just rolling in it right now. Should I buy more before it’s too late? I hear Ken Griffin is loaning money out to everyone right now it’s so hot!
“Is Real-Estate as hot as GameStop, AMC Theaters, and Bitcoin? Literally millions are just rolling in it right now. Should I buy more before it’s too late? I hear Ken Griffin is loaning money out to everyone right now it’s so hot!”
The rich own simple things. Like the NASDAQ index.
That’s all you need to be able to upgrade to a new condo or bigger house.
“sonies: Assuming the road’s open, you getting a room somewhere Thursday night? Friday morning is shaping up to be multiple feet and sunny.”
Nah unfortunately I have lots of work to do, but rose will be open all weekend, supposed to snow again Sunday… the snow is pretty wet so I don’t think its worth the hype, will make a fine long lasting base however
I do long for the days of less responsibility… obviously with the same pay as today though haha
“The rich own simple things. Like the NASDAQ index.”
The RICH have owned and manipulated stock prices like the NASDAQ for the past 10+ years. Sabrina you really think the price action yesterday in GameStop and other WallStreetBets stocks are more manipulated that the Rich buying the “simple things”?
The housing market is just as manipulated by the same forces Cheap/Free money from the FED through rate suppression. THERE IS NO OTHER GAME TO PLAY thanks to them. I hope the Redditors attack the Rates markets too. It’s all fake anyway.
But now we get to see the Co-Chief Architect of the past 10 years of the ponzi scheme Janet Yellen with her Neo-Liberal Corporatist boss Joe Biden have to double speak about how they care so much about the poor and middle class as they go after the people on Reddit to protect their Corporate Hedge Fund Donors like Melvin Capital and its Limited Partners from going belly up for trying to bankrupt companies that actually create something of value. The Emperor has no clothes.
You have the CNBC Corporate Elitist media comparing Reddit day traders to insurrectionists and Russian disinformation colusionists with a straight face. People wonder why no one trusts the media anymore and believe in conspiracies like QAnon or have more trust in the people they follow on Twitter.
So Sabrina next time you are invited to the dinner party at a $9MM house and are rubbing elbows with these people trading stock tips or housing advice just remember this is exactly what the people on Reddit did but for some reason we call one “smart money” and the other “dumb money know nothing retail investors”. The SEC doesn’t investigate one but wants to throw the hammer down on the other. TD Ameritrade and other brokerages stopped the trading on one but won’t stop the obvious market manipulation of the other.
pretty insane that a trading platform will only allow sell orders on a few certain stocks, I would think they are setting themselves up for a massive lawsuit on that one. But the way the media has attacked 4 million every day joes on reddit is pretty hilarious to say the least.
“every day joes”
You cant believe that there isn’t real money behind these transaction. I have a hard time believing “every day joes” investing their $600 stimulus check are moving the market like this.
“Nah unfortunately I have lots of work to do, but rose will be open all weekend”
Get this: We came up to the mountains last night, planning to work Thurs/Fri mornings and get out on the hill by noonish, then do some work late afternoon (like I’m doing know), as those days looked good for the kids to do school remote this week. Everyone was productive this morning and when we started suiting up around 11:30, I realized that I had left my boots at home.
“I realized that I had left my boots at home”
So now you have 2 pair?
“pretty insane that a trading platform will only allow sell orders on a few certain stocks, I would think they are setting themselves up for a massive lawsuit on that one.”
They are a brokerage. They are highly regulated. There’s a reason they put the restrictions on.
“Sabrina you really think the price action yesterday in GameStop and other WallStreetBets stocks are more manipulated that the Rich buying the “simple things”?”
The rich don’t care about GameStop, unless you’re Ken Griffin and you’ve decided to bail out Melvin.
Otherwise, the Pritzkers, Oprah Winfrey, the recent winner of the Mega Millions ($729 million!) don’t care.
You buy the indexes and let it sit there for years. It’s not rocket science.
And, by the way, the “poor” aren’t on Robinhood day trading. They are working at McDonald’s or that Amazon warehouse. They don’t have time for that nonsense. They have jobs.
On the market for 8 days.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1738-W-Belmont-Ave-60657/unit-1F/home/12700860
“So now you have 2 pair?”
Yes (and a mildly annoyed spouse, who’ll now enjoy asking me if I packed my boots every weekend, as she did about her poles for years after I forgot those). My original pair were new enough that the guy at the snowboard shop yesterday was like, “ah yeah bro, I remember you.”
“asking me if I packed my boots every weekend”
“But not both, right? I don’t want to lug an extra pair”
” they go after the people on Reddit to protect their Corporate Hedge Fund Donors like Melvin Capital and its Limited Partners from going belly up for trying to bankrupt companies that actually create something of value. ”
They are not really going after the people on Reddit. They need to make sure there isn’t some wall street conspiracy trying to take down Melvin. And you don’t bankrupt a company by shorting their stock unless the company is desperate for cash and needs to issue more stock.
The reason these trading platforms shut off trading was not to prop anyone up. They have to worry about being able to clear the trades – and not just their own trades but also the trades of other players.
“They need to make sure there isn’t some wall street conspiracy trying to take down Melvin.”
WHO CARES IF MELVIN IS TAKEN DOWN. It means nothing. Maybe don’t short 140% of a company’s shares. There are consequences to doing that. Don’t cry to your regulators that you control. Citadel makes billions through their volatility funds much like other hedge funds. Handle the dang volatility then. They are supposed to manage their positions. Maybe some PM’s need to get fired as their ivy league education fell a little short on this one.
We have had 10 years of market manipulation by these hedge funds and the one time someone flips the script they freak out and cry for regulation?
Janet Yellen needs to recuse herself immediately from any investigation as she took $800K in speaking fees from Citadel. The conflict of interest is appalling all the way around on this.
You can’t set up a “free market” for everyone but hedge fund and corporatist people and the socialize the losses every time the hedgies and corporatist people lose out which is what has happened for 10+ years now. This system is a joke.
“We have had 10 years of market manipulation by these hedge funds and the one time someone flips the script they freak out and cry for regulation?”
Market manipulation is illegal. I don’t know the precise definition of it but Gamestop’s stock price is ridiculous. If that occurs because a bunch of dumb people are making dumb trades that’s fine. I think it’s fine if thousands of individual traders try to take Melvin down. But if some person or entity is trying to manipulate the masses to risk their own money to take down Melvin in an effort to remove their competition then that would clearly be illegal. That’s why I care. That’s why others care.
And how do you think hedge funds “manipulate” the market? By what mechanism? With what goal? And what is your evidence that that goal has been achieved?
“And how do you think hedge funds “manipulate” the market?”
HFT frontrunning their own clients – Flash Boys Michael Lewis. Google all of the scandals.
Precious Metals Spoofing
LIBOR and Rates Spoofing
Quantitative Easing and Operation Twist
The $3Tn in Treasuries printed starting in March 2020 were directly for Mortgage REIT Hedge Funds
How bought Bill Ackman going on CNBC in March yelling how all the hotel stocks were going to $0 to drive the price even lower (cause its Bill Ackman you know he’s a smart guy) only to buy on the way down and make $2Bn
How bought Jim Cramer the amount of times he has said on TV that at his hedge fund he would purposely create interest in a stock to get a better exit point.
How bought Herbalife where Ackman went on to CNBC for the sole intent of driving down the price of his short due to his battle with Icahn.
“With what goal?”
To creat better entry or exit points to make more money for them and their investors
“And what is your evidence that that goal has been achieved?”
See above (they clearly made money). Further see below article about how due to all of the volatility (which was good for some reason after the March lows) they had a record year of performance. But now volatility is bad. I wonder why.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hedgefunds-returns/top-hedge-funds-earn-63-5-billion-in-2020-highest-in-a-decade-lch-data-idUSKBN29U00R
I can keep going. Don’t be so naïve.
Oh I forgot both flash crashes. Let’s throw that in for good measure.
I liked Chris Arnade’s take on the Gamestop uproar:
“The lesson taken away by those [reddit] losers, and everyone else not on Wall Street, is more important, insightful, and dangerous though. It will be that there isn’t a meritocracy, or at least a justified one. It will be that everyone is just playing games. Those at the top get to dress up their game, even though it is destructive to everyone else, as legitimate, call playing it a career, and get rewarded mightily for it. Others, like them, have to make it a hobby, and even though it is just harmless fun, get scolded for it.
This will harden a cynicism that already exists in large parts of America. A cynicism that will convince more and more people to play all of their life, recklessly. To do what is known in gaming circles, as Int-ing, or Intentionally dying. Running madly at the boss, unworried if they are going to lose, suffer, or die.
Because if you are not going to be allowed to win a rigged game, you might as well ruin it, and extract just a tiny moment of joy from that.”
https://americancompass.org/the-commons/gamestop-intentionally-dying/
“And how do you think hedge funds “manipulate” the market? By what mechanism? With what goal? And what is your evidence that that goal has been achieved?”
Judging from the downvotes…. Well its a wildly asserted conspiracy narrative. But evidence? Id like to see it.
Front running and spoofing are illegal. So why isn’t it prosecuted if it’s so obvious that it’s taking place?
Michael Lewis has a book to sell but his thesis has been debunked. https://www.barrons.com/articles/study-backs-barrons-critique-of-flash-boys-1472877853
“And how do you think hedge funds “manipulate” the market? By what mechanism? With what goal? And what is your evidence that that goal has been achieved?”
Gary, do you believe the guys on the red line asking you to play 3 cup monte are legitimate too? And after you lose 100x in a row, will you also ask me what evidence I have that the game is rigged? Is your evidence the game isn’t rigged because the guy before you managed to win?
“Judging from the downvotes…. Well its a wildly asserted conspiracy narrative. But evidence? Id like to see it.”
Steven Cohen, owner of the Mets and hedge fund manager, was caught doing insider trading some years ago and got away with a two year ban from running other people’s money. There is plenty of other evidence out there as well for those willing to look (LIBOR rigging, 1MDB scandal, etc).
The industry is structured so that the reward outweighs the risks associated with non-compliance in most cases. And regulators are more interested in being revenue sharing partners by levying fines instead of punitive punishments to change behavior. Jesus just google Deutsche Bank do you expect everyone to do all of the legwork in life for you?
“Our block has realtors emailing and texting people local crime reports to scare them, absolute scum profession and cant wait for the internet to make them completely obsolete. They are just a another tax / fee / cost in the pockets of the American household.”
I see this kind of anti-salesperson attitude is very common among the younger generation who thinks they know/can google everything & hate talking to people on the phone. And yet for some reason I know that Gary and some other realtors know a ton more about the market and housing than the layperson.
Keep going through life dismissive of a large swath of society because you think they aren’t value add. They will keep living theirs and providing for their families, and sometimes providing keen insight to those that ask for their insight.
With regard to this latter point…from my perspective, and this has been my perspective for decades, it’s not whether or not realtors provide value. It’s how much they charge for the value they provide. The realtor working $200,000 deals is definitely earning their keep. In fact, they are underpaid. But the realtor working $2 MM deals is overpaid. Buyers and sellers need to know their options. The vast majority don’t.
“Gary, do you believe the guys on the red line asking you to play 3 cup monte are legitimate too? And after you lose 100x in a row, will you also ask me what evidence I have that the game is rigged? Is your evidence the game isn’t rigged because the guy before you managed to win?”
So you think the evidence that the stock market is rigged is as obvious as a game of 3 cup monte? I don’t need evidence that the game isn’t rigged. I need evidence that the game IS rigged. If it’s so obvious where is the evidence? I haven’t seen it. And it certainly doesn’t affect my investments since I typically buy and hold for a long time.
” The realtor working $200,000 deals is definitely earning their keep. In fact, they are underpaid. But the realtor working $2 MM deals is overpaid.”
——————————
In Scotland real estate agents make one percent.
“Steven Cohen, owner of the Mets and hedge fund manager, was caught doing insider trading some years ago and got away with a two year ban from running other people’s money. ”
to be clear, it was his firm, SAC Capital, which employed 800 plus people that were fined. No charges were filed against him personally.
Gary,
Many years ago, I would stroll by the head shops at Clark and Belmont, and there were these massive bongs in the front window, and all of them had these little stickers on them that said “For Tobacco Use Only.” Of course, no one is actually putting pipe tobacco into a Graffix Puffco Peak bong to loose tobacco, but that was the fake veneer on the real purpose of that bong, which was to smoke (At the time) illegal cannabis.
The financial sector does the same thing. The government (broadly used, I know) hands essentially free money to billionaires to inflate every asset class like a casino. The Fed/Treasury puts fancy names on these mechanisms, like Quantitative Easing, or Asset Purchasing Programs, and the fake label on these say “For The Benefit Of Stabilizing The Economy” but we all know that’s not the real purpose. That’s the big lie we all tell ourselves. The real reason is that they are giving free money to the billionaires on wall st. to play with in the most unscrupulous and amoral of ways. You can create any justification you want for giving hedge funds and private equity access to billions of free money but we all know those reasons are no different than stick on the bong that says “for tobacco use only.”
And it’s made the billionaires very rich, very, very rich, and as recently as October 2020, right before the election, Yellen herself was sticking her hands into the cookie jar, accepting millions of dollars in ‘speaking fees’ from the very same financial sector she controls.
(Above cont…)
Yellen’s contract with Citadel last year paid her $810,000 for two Zoom speeches and a series of webinars. The contract I’m sure said in bold letters “NOTHING ELSE IS BEING EXCHANGED OR OFFERED IN CONSIDERATION OTHER THAN THE ITEMS LISTED HEREIN”. Yellen is a 75 year old retired former Fed president. She was paid nearly a million dollars for ‘webinars’ that likely few at citidel even watched or were aware of.
But therein is the sticker that said “For Tobacco Use Only”. Citadel knew (or suspected) that Yellen was going to be appointed Sec of the Treasury, and they bought influence. Because she oversees the very same people that just paid her $810,000 for about 8 hours of work, roughly $100,000 an hour. Are her speeches really worth that much money? Are people showing up for Yellen’s speches like Trump voters showed up to his rallies? of course not.
The system is rotten to the core, and everyone knows it. The system is rigged for the billionaires, at the expense of everyone else, and we can’t even raise the minimum wage to $15.00 an hour because it will put wide swathes of the small business economy out of business. But the billionaires can afford to buy influence in the most powerful of places, just like the drug cartels in Mexico buy off politicians, except that Citidel doesn’t even need to use the threat of violence, and it’s considered perfectly acceptable, and legal, to accept $810,000 from the financial sector in October for a job you will certainly be appointed to in January.
And anyone who believes that the corruption at the top doesn’t extend down to the very bottom, well, I’ve got a couple million Dodecoin I can sell you if you’re interested…
You’re just way too cynical for me. I don’t buy that there is some huge conspiracy underway. There may be some collateral benefits along the way to certain players but that’s certainly not the purpose. And I don’t believe it’s that easy to buy influence. The problem with your narrative is that it’s based on a correlation of events without any evidence of intent.
“Yellen is a 75 year old retired former Fed president. She was paid nearly a million dollars for ‘webinars’ that likely few at citidel even watched or were aware of.”
Whether people watched or didn’t, guess what, big institutions pay all sorts of folks huge premiums to talk at their events (which, yes, have been done remotely for nearly a year), plenty of them far less distinguished or industry-relevant than a former Fed president. At the firms I’ve been with, I’ve seen a range of speakers who I’m sure were paid enormous sums for an hour or so of their time. Comedians and singers who haven’t been in the spotlight for decades, authors, talking heads, etc. Sometimes it’s entertainment, sometimes it’s part of some sort of diversity initiative or “firm culture building” effort or “where the industry’s going” forecast or whatever. As a summer, I think my first firm paid someone I’d never heard of like $25k to appear in person and explain to 80 mostly socially awkward gunners that they should be nice to support staff and not get belligerently drunk. Hearing the Enron CFO speak as part of an ethics presentation was cool, but I don’t know if it was worth the small fortune he received, but who am I to say.
” I don’t buy that there is some huge conspiracy underway.”
Its not a conspiracy. It’s out in the open and on government disclosures. That’s how we know about it. You’re being purposefully obtuse if you don’t make any connection between the $7,000,000 total yellen received for Speaking Fees in the past two years, and her current position as Treasury Secretary. It’s perfectly legal and 100% soft corruption.
“Whether people watched or didn’t, guess what, big institutions pay all sorts of folks huge premiums to talk at their events (which, yes, have been done remotely for nearly a year), plenty of them far less distinguished or industry-relevant than a former Fed president.”
The speaking circuit is lucrative and has been since Ronald Reagan embarked on it in the late 1980s and people were shocked to find out he was paid millions.
And if you are a big “name” like a former Fed chairman, you can make even more.
Good for her. Good for them all. That is capitalism.
“Citadel knew (or suspected) that Yellen was going to be appointed Sec of the Treasury, and they bought influence.”
The only way you could actually argue this was to know whom else they paid millions to speak to. And, trust me, they are equally opportunity payers, paying out to Trumpists, Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians. Whomever the big names are, they get.
So?
Nearly every major organization, including law firms, holds seminars where they pay big “name” people to come and speak. It’s used to motivate the troops, drum up business and sometimes just to be a name brand in a community. They use it as PR, essentially.
It has nothing to do with the system being “rotten.”
And gee, I wonder why it was that Trump rescinded his own Executive Order on his last day in office that forbids anyone in his administration from becoming a lobbyist within 5 years of holding the job? Oh wait- because Ivanka and Jared want to be paid lobbyists. And they want to do it THIS month, not in 2026.
Lol.
And you’re crying about the minimum wage now too? Vote Democrat. Because the Republicans in the Senate are doing everything they can to block it from going to $15, which, by the way, Amazon and others already pay nationwide.
“And, trust me, they are equally opportunity payers, paying out to Trumpists, Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians. Whomever the big names are, they get. ”
You’re right. You’re 100% right. Both sides. It’s not just D/R issue. Corruption is an equal opportunity offender.
But anyone who says “so what” to the Secretary of the Treasury taking $7,000,000 from financial firms, for little work, in the months before she is appointed by the Biden administration (these days, more of a Junta), is not worth my time conversing with.
“Yellen herself was sticking her hands into the cookie jar, accepting millions of dollars in ‘speaking fees’ from the very same financial sector she controls.”
Also, I resent these attacks against Yellen who literally has spent decades in government work, on a government salary. And, yes, when she left the Fed she likely thought she was done (as Biden did too when he left VP.) Given her age, she wasn’t thinking that she’d be in a government job again.
So why not make money? Shouldn’t she? Why not get the book deal and the speaking engagements since she is an expert in her field?
Of course she should.
So, no she wasn’t “controlling” anything in the financial sector when she did this as she had no government position and probably wasn’t going to have one.
Where was the outrage when Mnuchin was appointed Treasury Secretary after working for years for Goldman Sachs? He actually was working IN the financial sector he was going to control. Yellen has never worked on Wall Street. Has not lived in New York City even in the last decades (if ever?).
Enough of the crying and whining about Yellen. Doing a few speaking engagements isn’t the problem.
“Janet Yellen needs to recuse herself immediately from any investigation as she took $800K in speaking fees from Citadel. The conflict of interest is appalling all the way around on this.”
Yellen wouldn’t be in charge of investigating this WP. Treasury has nothing to do with it. This is under the purview of the SEC and DOJ.
So you can quit complaining now.
“But anyone who says “so what” to the Secretary of the Treasury taking $7,000,000 from financial firms, for little work, in the months before she is appointed by the Biden administration (these days, more of a Junta), is not worth my time conversing with.”
But wait a minute. Trump was going to win re-election, right?
According to you HD, it was ASSURED. And wait a minute, according to you he DID win the election. The election is all a sham. Trump actually won.
So why in the hell would Yellen EVER think she would be appointed to a government position ever again given her age?
LMFAO.
You can’t even keep your conspiracy theories in order HD.
Oh, and this is the SAME argument used to discredit Clinton. How DARE she take millions of dollars in speaking fees from Goldman, JPMorgan and other financial institutions. What’s the difference from Dick Cheney having actually worked FOR Haliburton before he became VP? And Rex Tillerson becoming Secretary of State while he personally owned millions of dollars of Exxon stock?
There is NONE.
The fact is, our government and corporate worlds are interlinked. It has always been thus.
And when you are an expert and prominent in your field, you will get opportunities.
Disclosure is the best thing that can be done to shine light on where there might be conflicts.
But I feel these attacks against Yellen are more than that. It’s plain and simple misogyny. Again. Just like with Clinton.
Where are the attacks on Merrick Garland? He’s the one who will actually be prosecuting Wall Street. Why aren’t you focused on him?
“It’s out in the open and on government disclosures.”
What’s in government disclosures? Which disclosures? In order to prove your thesis you have to demonstrate that the government intended to help hedge funds with their monetary policy and that the government decision makers were directly compensated to do that. The fact that a government policy disproportionately benefited one group is not evidence of corruption. If it is I’ll get to work on some other conspiracy theories.
And commercial real estate is one asset class that did not benefit from cheap money. Did they not bribe the right people?
I’m not intentionally being obtuse. I just need hard proof of everything.
“The industry is structured so that the reward outweighs the risks associated with non-compliance in most cases.”
Yep. 1,000%.
And the guys who do the crimes (almost always) get to keep their bonuses, and (almost always) just move on to another shop, so their risk-reward balance is another step of abstraction.
There are the exceptions, like Blodget. But that’s in part because he was the good soldier and took the fall. (It’s quaint to recall that Henry’s initial claim to fame was his call for AMZN to go to $400 in 1998–from ~$200. It’s split 6-1 since, so is currently pushing 50x return from that ‘aggressive’ target price, and 100x where it was at the Dec-98 call)
“But I feel these attacks against Yellen are more than that. It’s plain and simple misogyny. Again. Just like with Clinton.”
We are in the era of victimhood and nuance is a tough subject given society’s inability to critically think since public schools have been closed for a year now since they are invested with “ism’s” (CTU tweeting re-opening public schools is racist) cough I mean the plague (unlike private schools).
Rex Tillerson and Steve Mnunchin provided value to their employer by working for their respective employers making them money, improving their earnings, and thus making themselves money.
Janet Yellen and Hillary Clinton (like former Presidents who have all been male but I digress) go on speaking tours at Corporations, to foreign countries, or other “interests” which provide little to zero value to that company’s earnings are make a years salary talking about nonsense for an hour vs. creating value for a year (or years).
Like former US Presidents (all male) it looks like a quid-pro-quo. Were your decisions affected in anyway while in office because you could talk for one hour and make a years (or two given the $400K salary of President’s) worth of salary.
George Bush and Dick Chaney making millions per speech post Bush’s Presidency when it comes to speaking in countries oil rich or oil company’s looks like a quid-pro-quo in getting us into Iraq.
But yes it’s all about the “ism”. Feel free to accuse me of mansplaning now.
“Yellen wouldn’t be in charge of investigating this WP. Treasury has nothing to do with it. This is under the purview of the SEC and DOJ.”
Jen Psaki the White House Press Secretary (whose second cousin works at Citadel but whatever) said “Janet Yellen is monitoring the situation” she did not say “Merrick Garland” or “DOJ”. She may have mentioned the SEC as well when she brought up Janet Yellen. She further brought her up in the following days as well thus the speaking fees from Citadel are being brought up in the news cycle. That’s valid.
Further, Merrick Garland isn’t going to be doing much investigating as he is a placeholder at DOJ until the Biden admin can persuade Breyer to retire like Obama tried to do with Ginsburg.
Should we blindly throw the misogyny label at Obama now for wanting Ginsburg to retire from her lifetime appointment or can we think through he political strategy of why democrats and Obama thought this was important? More appropriate maybe this was “ageism” in the judicial industry.
“I need evidence that the game IS rigged. If it’s so obvious where is the evidence? I haven’t seen it. And it certainly doesn’t affect my investments since I typically buy and hold for a long time.”
Politico over the weekend…. “Last year, Robinhood agreed to pay $65 million to settle SEC charges that it failed to disclose revenue it received from selling its customers’ orders to other trading firms to execute at high fees, depriving its customers of $34 million”
“Unfortunately, it should be another ‘flash crash’ moment that wakes people up to their false sense of security that our markets are functioning properly when they’re full of fraud, manipulation and conflicts of interest that benefit the big players and screw the buy-side and the retail players,” said Better Markets President and CEO Dennis Kelleher, who advocates for greater Wall Street oversight”
Again, stop being so obtuse. We have given you examples, provided evidence, feel free to use the Google machine if you want to learn more.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/29/wall-street-washington-crackdown-gamestop-463935
whose second cousin works at Citadel but whatever
We are tarring people based on their second cousins now? Jesus, I don’t even know who my second cousins are.
“Jesus, I don’t even know who my second cousins are.”
Cribchatteri posting their L’s online.
Your calling me obtuse for the second time has really helped clarify your position. Thank you.
““Last year, Robinhood agreed to pay $65 million to settle SEC charges that it failed to disclose revenue it received from selling its customers’ orders to other trading firms to execute at high fees, depriving its customers of $34 million”
Yeah, people do bad things. And, hopefully as in this case, they get caught and penalized. Doesn’t mean there is a conspiracy.
“Unfortunately, it should be another ‘flash crash’ moment that wakes people up to their false sense of security that our markets are functioning properly when they’re full of fraud, manipulation and conflicts of interest that benefit the big players and screw the buy-side and the retail players,” said Better Markets President and CEO Dennis Kelleher, who advocates for greater Wall Street oversight”
OK. That proves that Dennis Kelleher believes there is fraud and manipulation. What is the “it” he is referring to? The fact that the stock was fairly priced and a bunch of loons decided to turn it into tulip bulbs? The loons are not necessarily committing fraud. There might be fraud or manipulation or a conflict of interest if it turns out that some large player was attempting to recruit greater fools they could profit off of. That should be investigated. But the shorting wasn’t the problem.
These articles kill me. They are written to attract eyeballs. The reporters basically go find a bunch of quotes that support the thesis and there are plenty of people anxious to provide those quotes.
Cribchatteri posting their L’s online.
I have 28 1st cousins and probably over 100 2nd cousins. I literally have no contact with most of them. Why would I?
“Merrick Garland isn’t going to be doing much investigating as he is a placeholder at DOJ until the Biden admin can persuade Breyer to retire”
Garland is 15 years too old to be the nominee (he’s 68). Zero chance. More likely to be one of the Obamas than Garland.
Will be someone under 55. Probably a ‘first’ of some sort.
“probably over 100 2nd cousins. I literally have no contact with most of them. Why would I?”
You aren’t facebook friends with all of your great-grandparents’ other great-grandchildren? I am shocked! This is what’s wrong with America!
“Garland is 15 years too old to be the nominee (he’s 68). Zero chance. More likely to be one of the Obamas than Garland.
Will be someone under 55. Probably a ‘first’ of some sort.”
So Malia or Sasha?
Agree that it will be someone young and someone on the LGBT
“So Malia or Sasha?”
More likely than anyone who is almost 70, yes.
“I have 28 1st cousins and probably over 100 2nd cousins. I literally have no contact with most of them. Why would I?”
Says the sad cat lady living in Chicago.
“We are tarring people based on their second cousins now? Jesus, I don’t even know who my second cousins are.”
When your cousin worked as the State Department’s spokeswoman whose boss (Obama) said China was the biggest risk during the 2012 debates (ironically Romney said Russia and was laughed at) and then during a trade war with said country gets a job with the largest market maker whose ambitious growth plans are centered on China questions should be asked. yeah it raises some red flags as we come full circle to Psaki being the current Press Secretary. Jeff was a Managing Director when he left Goldman and Magnatar not some low level employee.
Also, at the same time of his hiring in 2017, JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank and a multitude of US and European Banks were being investigated by the US DOJ and subsequently settling fines for hiring relatives of high profile politicians as they were/are trying to expand into China.
Yes it’s circumstantial but there’s a lot of connections and conflict of interests. Remember in just the last 5 ish years China has loosened their foreign ownership laws first to 49% interest and more recently to majority 51% interest. This was huge for multinational corps especially in the financial sector. I’m asking questions not saying people are guilty.
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/finance-banking/citadel-its-full-speed-ahead-china#:~:text=With%20a%20nearly%20%24100%20million,dollar%20financial%20markets%20in%20China.&text=Citadel%20Securities%20has%20big%20expansion,the%20world's%20second%2Dlargest%20economy.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-27/goldman-sachs-junk-bond-trader-jeff-psaki-said-to-have-left-bank
https://money.cnn.com/2016/11/17/investing/jpmorgan-china-hiring-bribery-settlement/index.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/05/business/credit-suisse-china-bribery.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-deutsche-bank-sec/u-s-fines-deutsche-bank-16-million-to-settle-china-russia-corruption-charges-idUSKCN1VC2O3
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sec-barclays/barclays-pays-6-3-million-to-settle-u-s-secs-asia-pacific-hiring-probe-idUSKBN1WC21F
https://www.newdelhitimes.com/exclusive-u-s-expands-china-hiring-probe-morgan-stanley/
1) Not living in Chicago (I only live there in the summer/fall)
2) No cat (I do like cats, though! They’re adorable and fun.)
3) Not terribly sad (as happy as can reasonably be expected during a global pandemic when unable to do much of anything)
Other than that, though, you nailed it!
I guess if you’re in one of those happy families where the cousins all marry each other, you’re aware of who all your second cousins are.
“There might be fraud or manipulation or a conflict of interest if it turns out that some large player was attempting to recruit greater fools they could profit off of. That should be investigated. But the shorting wasn’t the problem.”
————————-
Daniel Drew: “He who sells what isn’t his’n, Must buy it back or go to pris’n.”
The hedge fund shorts shorted 140 percent of the stock of Gamestop. Even if you believe that some of the shorting was not market manipulation, there was — at a minimum — 40 percent of the shorting as market manipulation. Why? Because they were trading to affect the price with actual knowledge that it was impossible to complete the trades. That’s manipulation.
That why I love the fact that the reddit traders have the hedge funds by the short and curlies. I hope the hedges all go bankrupt.
Be that as it may, shorting non-existent shares is fraud and manipulation, on its face. Sing and dance all you want, the hedges were making trades they knew they couldn’t close.
Anon(tfo) – Will you disallow your completely and utterly racist comment? Given how often I’m falsely accused of ‘ism’s on this site, it should be noted when there is ACTUAL racism from a commenter.
“Consanguinity and reproductive health among Arabs”
https://reproductive-health-journal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1742-4755-6-17
“Consanguineous marriages have been practiced since the early existence of modern humans. At present, about 20% of world populations live in communities with a preference for consanguineous marriage. Consanguinity rates vary from one population to another depending on religion, culture, and geography. Noticeably, many Arab countries display some of the highest rates of consanguineous marriages in the world ranging around 20-50% of all marriages, and specifically favoring first cousin marriages with average rates of about 20-30% “
“I guess if you’re in one of those happy families where the cousins all marry each other, you’re aware of who all your second cousins are.”
Anti-semitic comment. Everyone knows the Hasidim and Orthodox has the highest instances of inbreeding of any group in America but we shouldn’t discuss it. First cousin marriage in legal in NY and NJ, but not in KY or WV. Look it up. First cousin inbreeding is legal in NY and NJ specifically for Jews, cause if they wanted it illegal it would be.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cousin_marriage_law_in_the_United_States
” First cousin marriage in legal in NY and NJ, but not in KY or WV.”
————————
First cousin marriage is also legal in Illinois
“First-cousin marriage is legal” states are in BLUE. Look at all those perverted and inbred blue states. Looks like the election map! LOL!
“racist”
Haven’t you said on here that’s the worst thing you can say? Or am I misremembering?
apologies: not “say”–“call someone”.
“The hedge fund shorts shorted 140 percent of the stock of Gamestop. Even if you believe that some of the shorting was not market manipulation, there was — at a minimum — 40 percent of the shorting as market manipulation. Why? Because they were trading to affect the price with actual knowledge that it was impossible to complete the trades. That’s manipulation.”
That’s a really strange definition of manipulation. You can always close a short position. Doesn’t matter what percent of the stock is shorted. Not at all impossible. It’s not like the stock disappears from the market just because it’s bought to close a short position. The same 100 shares can be bought twice from 2 different sellers to close 2 100 share short positions in sequence. You just reverse what you did to short it in the first place.
“actual knowledge that it was impossible to complete the trades”
I missed that: how is it “impossible”? Are all shorts required to close at the same time? Since the answer is an unqualified “no”, I don’t see ‘impossible’.
There are ~102m shares outstanding–and something less than that ‘available’–yet over 200m shares traded in a single day on Jan-22. And the 25th and 26th both also saw volume exceeding total shares.
“You can always close a short position. ”
—————————
You have to deliver the shares within X days of the transaction. You have to close a short position within Y days of taking it if the price moves against you. By definition, if you bought every share of the company to deliver on your own short positions, and there were still short positions, the other shorts either have to pray that someone is willing to sell or get caught out.
Saying “I thought I could do it” when there is no realistic chance of covering in the time one has to clear the trade by delivering the stock is fraud. Also, given that your seller has X days (from a later date) to deliver doesn’t alter the fact that you’ve gone outside of the time to settle. That a brokerage can do an emergency buy against your account to cover the exposed short doesn’t alter the act that you were trading at a time when you knew you couldn’t cover, because the short position was too big.
“You have to close a short position within Y days of taking it if the price moves against you.”
Not if you have enough capital to cover the losses.
” if you bought every share of the company to deliver on your own short positions, and there were still short positions, the other shorts either have to pray that someone is willing to sell or get caught out.”
Someone is always willing to sell if the price is high enough. That’s why the price moves up when shorts cover their positions en masse.
“Not if you have enough capital to cover the losses.
. . .
Someone is always willing to sell if the price is high enough. That’s why the price moves up when shorts cover their positions en masse.”
—————————–
Trouble is, Gary, since you cannot know how much the price will move in the future, you cannot know if you have enough capital now to cover your losses. That’s why the hedge funds are whining. Given that their short positions were 140% of the total outstanding stock, there is no basis for anything other than a “bet” beyond all reasonable market factors against the stock. That is where the manipulation lies. If you or I short 1,000 shares of Apple, we both known that even combined our short positions are not going to alter the market fundamentals of Apple.
If we short 140 percent of Apple, however. . .
The hedge funds shorted on the basis of market manipulation, and misjudged market psychology in their predictions of how they would get out of their shorted positions.
And face it — when Robinhood cut off retail buyers and sellers but allowed institutional traders (hedge funds) to continue trading, it was allowing paper losses to be offset by paper gains, while cutting out the little guy from the rewards of his risks.
Your position is nice in a perfect world. In a perfect world, however, Ayn Rand — welfare scrounge that she was — would be a respected economist.
“The hedge funds shorted on the basis of market manipulation, and misjudged market psychology in their predictions of how they would get out of their shorted positions.”
They did not short on the basis of market manipulation. They were trying to make money when the market figured out that the shorts were correct.
“And face it — when Robinhood cut off retail buyers and sellers but allowed institutional traders (hedge funds) to continue trading, it was allowing paper losses to be offset by paper gains, while cutting out the little guy from the rewards of his risks.”
Robinhood wasn’t allowing institutional traders to continue trading. Institutional traders don’t use Robinhood. Robinhood was doing what they were required to do because of regulations.
“On the market for 8 days. [1738-W-Belmont-Ave-60657/unit-1F]”
Ok, but you’re making my point here. That was listed at that price to sell immediately – probably goes at list or above.
“They did not short on the basis of market manipulation. They were trying to make money when the market figured out that the shorts were correct.”
——————————-
Sorry, Gary, but at 140% sold the shorts were taking a risk that they would not be caught out. They were trying to drive the buyers and holders into panic selling. That’s market manipulation in anyone’s book.
The markets figured out “that the shorts were correct”?!?! Gary, stop smoking whatever it is you’re smoking. You can’t handle it. If the shorts had called the market correctly the price of Gamestop would have cratered. What happened is the market discovered the shorts’ exposure — a condition independent of the company’s fundamentals — and is making them pay.
The shorts tried a classic market manipulation that was a per se manipulation given the degree of overselling. It failed, and the hedge funds deserve to die.
“There are ~102m shares outstanding–and something less than that ‘available’–yet over 200m shares traded in a single day on Jan-22. And the 25th and 26th both also saw volume exceeding total shares.”
———————————
Naked short selling will do that, won’t it? Especially when it’s divorced from company fundamentals. Why else do you think the hedge funds are whining and Robinhood stopped retail trading?
“Will be someone under 55. Probably a ‘first’ of some sort.”
Biden has already said he will put a black woman on the court. And yes, it will be a “first.”
Agreed that Garland will be too old to put on now. And he didn’t need to give up his very powerful, lifetime appointment in order to be a “placeholder.”
“We are tarring people based on their second cousins now? Jesus, I don’t even know who my second cousins are.”
Ba ha ha.
Thank you Madeline.
A second cousin? What the hell is that? Who even knows their second cousins??? Most don’t even know their first cousins.
Soon they’ll say a fourth cousin, once removed once worked at Goldman Sachs. Gasp.
It’s absurd.
So desperate.
“Again, stop being so obtuse. We have given you examples, provided evidence, feel free to use the Google machine if you want to learn more.”
This is why we have regulators, WP. Thank goodness.
Brokerages get fined quite often. Look around at who you use for your investments. You’ll find they paid fines, probably recently.
Robinhood is also a new type of brokerage trying to make it without charging trading fees. They’ve got to come up with money other ways because, as we know, nothing is truly “free.”
You don’t have to use Robinhood WP. The vast majority of small US investors don’t use it. They really are a fairly small brokerage.
“Further, Merrick Garland isn’t going to be doing much investigating as he is a placeholder at DOJ until the Biden admin can persuade Breyer to retire like Obama tried to do with Ginsburg.”
Wrong WP. Wrong, wrong, wrong.
Garland is a shocking pick at DOJ. Why would anyone give up a lifetime appointment from a job that is by all measure one of the most powerful in the law other than being on the Supreme Court?
Why?
Is he bored? Is he just tired of being a judge? Was being AG always the dream job, and being a judge was not?
He’s too old to put on the Supreme Court now. Again, he could have coasted for another 10 years as the head of the second most powerful court in the land.
Why leave it?
And good for him for actually taking on the challenge of a totally new position like this.
If Psaki keeps talking about how Yellen was “monitoring the situation” it could be because neither the new SEC chairman nor Merrick Garland have been confirmed yet so neither is working yet. She’s the only one who CAN “monitor” it but it’s not her job.
It’s the SEC which regulates Wall Street and the DOJ prosecutes. The Treasury had nothing to do with Bernie Madoff, for instance.
However, Treasury watches the banks, money flow etc. and would be involved if Robinhood were, say, to abruptly get into financial distress. So, yes, she’s monitoring THAT part of it.
“Rex Tillerson and Steve Mnunchin provided value to their employer by working for their respective employers making them money, improving their earnings, and thus making themselves money.”
Stop it WP. Come on. This is laughable now.
They are as exposed to charges of corruption, if not more so, than the person who works for a public speaking agency and goes and gives a 50 minute speech for $350,000.
Just because you believe they don’t create any “value” doesn’t mean you are right. They clearly do or else the capitalist market would not see the reason to pay them those sums.
But, again, misogyny plays a large part of it. It’s okay when men do it, not okay when women do it. It’s women using their power. How DARE they have any.
Notice how you say it has “zero” value?
Uh-huh.
“(It’s quaint to recall that Henry’s initial claim to fame was his call for AMZN to go to $400 in 1998–from ~$200. It’s split 6-1 since, so is currently pushing 50x return from that ‘aggressive’ target price, and 100x where it was at the Dec-98 call)”
No offense anon(tfo), but the reason he got banned from the industry was for more than what you are outlining here. There were entire changes in the industry because of what he did.
And, you can’t compare the Amazon of today with the Amazon of 1998 when all they were selling, literally, was books. And for a loss.
You do know that Amazon nearly went under in the dot-com bust, right? And that the board almost got rid of Bezos because he wouldn’t stop spending money?
Amazon is here today because it got lucky. They did a secondary just before the money dried up in the market.
“Sorry, Gary, but at 140% sold the shorts were taking a risk that they would not be caught out. They were trying to drive the buyers and holders into panic selling. That’s market manipulation in anyone’s book.”
First, it doesn’t matter what percent of the float you short you are always taking that risk. And you have no evidence of what they were trying to do other than make money. The definition of market manipulation is an attempt to create an artificial price, whatever that is. The price before Reddit was correct. The price after Reddit was wrong.
“If the shorts had called the market correctly the price of Gamestop would have cratered. What happened is the market discovered the shorts’ exposure — a condition independent of the company’s fundamentals — and is making them pay.”
The stock had already cratered and, given their obsolete business model, it was correct. And you can’t simultaneously say the price was incorrect – i.e. correct now – and that the current price is unrelated to the company’s fundamentals.
“The shorts tried a classic market manipulation that was a per se manipulation given the degree of overselling. It failed, and the hedge funds deserve to die.”
The deserve to die because they took risks they shouldn’t have, not because someone thinks their valuation model was wrong. And you still have no evidence that they were trying to create an artificial price. The price is artificial now – by your own admission when you say the current price is unrelated to the company’s fundamentals.
“Just because you believe they don’t create any “value” doesn’t mean you are right. They clearly do or else the capitalist market would not see the reason to pay them those sums.”
Its called buying influence. Even you cant be this naïve.
“But, again, misogyny plays a large part of it. It’s okay when men do it, not okay when women do it. It’s women using their power. How DARE they have any.”
This is more of your BS. Your never going to get anyone qualified w/o some level of a conflict of interest. However folks like Cheney & Tillerson potential CoI are pretty narrow Vs Clinton & Yellen
Blaming misogyny is a intellectually weak argument, but its about par coming out of your keyboard
“No offense anon(tfo), but the reason he got banned from the industry was for more than what you are outlining here.”
What the fuuuuck? It was an aside. Even denoted by parentheses, which you even included in the quote.
I’m well aware that his ban had *nothing* to do with his Amazon call–which was while he was still at CIBC, btw–I just think it’s funny that he was (over time) very right about Amazon, and that it was notable enough in ’98 to make him ‘famous’.
“However folks like Cheney & Tillerson potential CoI are pretty narrow”
Yeah, just the entire petrochem industry. No endemic corruption or geopolitical issues *there*.
Maybe I’m old fashioned, but I have more issues with politicians (of any party!) owing favors to foreign powers than to anyone domestic.
“The[y] deserve to die because they took risks they shouldn’t have”
No value in a fund manager that can lose 50% in an overall flat month.
What would it have cost Plotkin to have mitigated with some otm calls when he made the short trade? And why’d he sell short so much *and* hold puts? (see https://whalewisdom.com/filer/melvin-capital-management-lp#tabholdings_tab_link )
If pension funds wanted their money gambled, they can just have the trustees take it to Vegas.
“And you have no evidence of what they were trying to do other than make money. The definition of market manipulation is an attempt to create an artificial price, whatever that is. ”
——————————-
And the reason for creating an artificial price is . . . (drum roll please)?
YES! Gary wins the kewpie doll!!! TO MAKE MONEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
“The deserve to die because they took risks they shouldn’t have, . . . . And you still have no evidence that they were trying to create an artificial price.
——————————–
Yeah, naked shorting to the extent of 140 percent of the outstanding stock will do that. It’s also evidence of the fact the hedges were trying to create an artificial price.
As for the now “artificial” price (and I agree, it is), it came about as a result of the hedge funds exposing themselves to a short squeeze. Which came first, the short or the squeeze? Answer – the short. What I love is the fact that the hedge funds are now taking it in the shorts.
“Yeah, just the entire petrochem industry. No endemic corruption or geopolitical issues *there*.
You’re pulling a Sabrina
“Robinhood is also a new type of brokerage trying to make it without charging trading fees.”
what’s the draw to use Robinhood. Haven’t explored the platform. You can trade for free already with many well established companies, Fidelity and Schwab to name a few.
“Was being AG always the dream job, and being a judge was not?”
I haven’t seen it reported that he’s 100% going to accept the appointment to AG, but assuming he does, I would imagine that he’s got enough money socked away to be willing to walk away from a lifetime judicial position. And yes, his early career would indicate that being AG was his dream job.
“what’s the draw to use Robinhood.”
Stoinks!
“You’re pulling a Sabrina”
Nah–that’d would be if I claimed their association with the atrocities in Yemen and the coup in Burma because something something–perhaps they’d shorted shares in Burma Shave.
Dick and Rex had and have massive Conflict of Interests issues in a role as a representative of the USA, and they didn’t/don’t go away just because they were already very rich prior to their role.
In other words: I disagree with your take, because of the specific examples you used, not necessarily that Hil and Jan don’t *also* have CoI issues.
“Stoinks!”
Dude, Snoop Dogg and NAS were early round investors!
Don’t you want to be part of *that*!
“I would imagine that he’s got enough money socked away to be willing to walk away from a lifetime judicial position”
He still gets the lifetime judicial pension, which is the same as his current salary:
“Federal judges can retire or take senior status, with the option of a reduced workload, if they satisfy the “rule of 80.” The requirement says they must be age 65 or older, and their combined age and years of experience must total 80. It is an attractive option because their pay remains the same, but their taxes fall because they don’t have to pay taxes for Social Security or Medicare.”
https://www.abajournal.com/news/article/why_do_federal_judges_retire_more_income_is_top_answer#:~:text=Federal%20judges%20can%20retire%20or,of%20experience%20must%20total%2080.
“He still gets the lifetime judicial pension, which is the same as his current salary”
Wow, not a bad gig. I just turned 50. Wish I had the credentials/history/connections to be considered for appointment. Wouldn’t be a bad way to spend the next 15 years.
“Wish I had the credentials/history/connections to be considered for appointment. Wouldn’t be a bad way to spend the next 15 years.”
BK judges get (basically) the same pension–and qualify at 65 after only one 14 year appointment:
https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/28/377 (COLA is a bit different)
So you have a year to figure it out!
“You don’t have to use Robinhood WP. The vast majority of small US investors don’t use it. They really are a fairly small brokerage.”
I don’t use Robinhood as I know how they make money. Further, lets look at Robinhood’s C Suite and guess what the Former SEC Commissionaire is their Chief Legal Officer. Wow the connected win again….. Don’t worry he is a white male so you can’t “ism” this one unfortunately.
When was he SEC Commissionaire: under Obama when Biden was VP and Yellen was running the FED. Who appointed Yellen to the FED Obama and now Biden is appointing her to Treasury (I thought the FED and Federal Gov was supposed to be separate but w.e.)
Who is Biden’s choice to be SEC Chairman – Obama’s head of CFTC Gary Gensler who previously worked at Treasury and was the CFO of Clinton’s 2016 campaign. Further, he was on an advisory committee for the NY FED, and is a Professor at MIT (until confirmation). He was an Executive at Goldman so checks that box too. It’s like they are all connected and know each other and thus nothing ever changes.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/daniel-gallagher-448338125#:~:text=About,a%20leading%20global%20pharmaceutical%20company.
https://mitsloan.mit.edu/faculty/directory/gary-gensler
“Soon they’ll say a fourth cousin, once removed once worked at Goldman Sachs. Gasp.”
It’s her second cousin that was a Managing Director at Goldman Sachs who now works at Citadel.
“Where was the outrage when Mnuchin was appointed Treasury Secretary after working for years for Goldman Sachs?”
Steve Mnunchin donated to Hillary Clinton, Chuck Schumer, and Obama. His donations to democrats were 3x the amount as to republicans. That’s why there was no criticism. He was already in the club. If he didn’t work under Trump Biden might have been offering a role somewhere.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trumps-finance-head-history-donating-democrats/story?id=38903562
“Nah–that’d would be if I claimed their association with the atrocities in Yemen and the coup in Burma because something something–perhaps they’d shorted shares in Burma Shave.
Dick and Rex had and have massive Conflict of Interests issues in a role as a representative of the USA, and they didn’t/don’t go away just because they were already very rich prior to their role.
In other words: I disagree with your take, because of the specific examples you used, not necessarily that Hil and Jan don’t *also* have CoI issues.”
I think you need to separate policy from influence. Both Dick & Rex are going to favor a more aggressive exploration policy. If they started targeting individual firms/nations with advantageous positions I’d agree. HAL’s Iraq contracts for example – Very poor optics (Though there were only probably 4 US based companies that might have been able to manage that scope of work)
HRC’s are much worse than JY’s. The Clinton Fnd is pretty ripe for CoI
“BK judges get (basically) the same pension–and qualify at 65 after only one 14 year appointment”
I’m not sure that my brief (but illustrious!) time in the BK trenches qualifies. Though if memory serves, for appointments to the BK bench in Chicago (Eastern Div. of the N.D.), they only consider candidates with zero BK experience. Don’t know what the convention is in CO.
“what’s the draw to use Robinhood.”
Easy to use phone app. All the teens use it.
“Dude, Snoop Dogg and NAS were early round investors!
Don’t you want to be part of *that*!”
Yes, absolutely. If I could buy Robinhood at a price equal to their last funding round valuation, $11.7 billion (Sep 2020), I’d have given them all the money I could, in a heartbeat.
https://craft.co/robinhood/funding-rounds
“It’s her second cousin that was a Managing Director at Goldman Sachs who now works at Citadel.”
Does she talk to him?
I’m not suggesting she doesn’t, but WTF cares about the shared great-grandparents if there is no actual *personal* relationship?
I could have a second cousin working at Citadel and another in the White House, and I’d have *no clue*–and I actually know quite a few of my (many) second cousins.
“If I could buy Robinhood at a price equal to their last funding round valuation, $11.7 billion”
Oh, no, not *that*:
I was suggesting using the app because of the influencers they got to be early stage investors.
“Maybe I’m old fashioned, but I have more issues with politicians (of any party!) owing favors to foreign powers than to anyone domestic.”
Also, second cousins are one thing, sons are another. Peter Van Buren has this to say after reading the files on Hunter Biden’s laptop:
“While, of course, Hunter is an adult with his own mind, his father was one of the most powerful men in the world and yet apparently did nothing to stop what was going on among Hunter, his brother Jim, the Chinese, the Ukrainians, and himself—at minimum, the gross appearance of impropriety over a period of years. Biden’s defense has always been sweeping: “My son did nothing wrong.” That alone raises questions of judgment on the part of Joe Biden. Not least because in a few weeks he becomes president of the United States. And if the president does it, it’s not illegal, right?”
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/hunter-bidens-guilty-laptop/
Worth reading in full.
“Worth reading in full.”
The Hunter thing stinks to high heaven.
Dude needs a better editor:
sloppy use of “Biden” frequently–when there are at least 4 Bidens in the article.
making KYC sound like more than it is (WFB only cares bc they have a bullseye on compliance failures–not bc it ‘seemed off’).
the whine about the ‘unfairness’ to Trump.
Again: The Hunter thing stinks. So do many Trump family related things. Can we treat them *all* as a betrayal of public trust, rather than “look how bad he was–how can you let that slide”? But not in a Nader-ite ‘burn it all down’ way.
If Joe ever pardons Hunter, it should be the (effective) end of his presidency. Period.
“Again: The Hunter thing stinks. So do many Trump family related things.”
Absolutely. I’m not fan of Trump, so would like to see what deals he and his family made while he was in office. Jared Kushner had a lot of COI, would love to get a look at his laptop. But it does seem like media suppression favoring Biden convinced voters that Trump was more corrupt.
I didn’t vote, again. Lesser of two evils is still evil.
city living
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-02/new-survey-shows-big-cities-aren-t-dead
“what’s the draw to use Robinhood. Haven’t explored the platform. You can trade for free already with many well established companies, Fidelity and Schwab to name a few.”
Same reason there is a draw to use tinder and other swiping apps: Robinhood encourages it’s users, via it’s interface & zero trading fees, to open up margin accounts and day trade them.
Beyond the slick interface Robinhood actually has margin rates that are quite a bit below the industry standard, with only Interactive Brokers being lower. And last time I used IB their interface sucked.
I had RH’s lowest margin tier at $2,000 that you need to enable day-trading and the $5 monthly fee can be recovered by investing in dividend stocks. I have since disabled margin on my RH account as of last week and am considering leaving the platform for a “real” brokerage like Chase that I already have money at.
I had moved the majority of my RH money over to Chase in two rounds: 1st when ACHs failed for me one day (this is not normal for a real brokerage to ever experience) and again when some people had discovered an “infinite money glitch” at RH where people with $2,000 down, the margin account minimum, found a way to accumulate million dollar positions (this is illegal and not normal for a real brokerage to ever experience).
I kept some $ there to support the little guy, but now I’m thinking do I really want to go through the SIPC process to get my $ back if they go tits up from this nonsense? And they may very well be going tits up from this nonsense despite their latest cash infusions.
Yes if your broker cannot close out your falling knife position fast enough it is possible for your margin account to go negative, where the broker eats the loss. Robinhood didn’t realize that Depository Trust & Clearing Corp is definitely not in the business of eating losses due to broker incompetence so they increased the collateral rates of these stocks for holding until settlement significantly I think in some cases to even 100%.
Robinhood was onto something with the daytrading thing, but should have never been allowed to extend Regulation T margin to these idiots. Now in the future I hope regulation T margin gets taken away from fools. Daytrade all day and not worry about procedural settlement issues sure, but you should have to do it with 100% of your own money and NO broker money.
“But it does seem like media suppression favoring Biden convinced voters that Trump was more corrupt.”
Excuse me?
One literally owns two hotels where the Saudi government would book rooms, never send anyone to the rooms, and then pay for said rooms and the other one owns…nothing???
LMFAO.
“Peter Van Buren has this to say after reading the files on Hunter Biden’s laptop:”
Who is Peter Van Buren? And why was he reading some supposed files?
Shouldn’t these “files” have gone to the FBI? Trump surely would have wanted his own FBI to have a look at them, right? And for Bill Barr to DO something about it.
But NONE of that ever happened.
Huh.
Instead “Peter Van Buren” got them instead.
The “laptop” that Hunter supposedly took to get fixed in a state 1800 miles from where he lived and then, whoops, he left it there for years because he “forgot” about it. And the guy who was supposedly “fixing” it then remembered he had it and then “discovered” crazy crap on it?
LMFAO.
You are all a bunch of morons who believe anything. Seriously.
Wake up stupid Americans.
“I’m not suggesting she doesn’t, but WTF cares about the shared great-grandparents if there is no actual *personal* relationship?”
NO ONE cares anon(tfo). Except some crazy conspiracy lunatics who can’t let it go that Trump lost.
My god.
It’s absurd.
I wouldn’t even care if it was a FIRST cousin who was a Managing Director at Goldman Sachs.
Since when did America become a place where you are punished or penalized in your own professional life because of what a family member does? Even a father, brother, mother, or sister?
Who CARES where they worked or what they’ve done. That’s of no concern.
Isn’t that one of the reasons for the American Revolution? That Americans wouldn’t be distinguished as who they were simply from birth. That rank was irrelevant. That it didn’t matter what your father did.
What has happened to all of you sad people?
Go read some US history.
“Steve Mnunchin donated to Hillary Clinton, Chuck Schumer, and Obama. His donations to democrats were 3x the amount as to republicans.”
That’s my point WP. Duh.
Where was YOUR outrage at Steve Mnuchin’s appointment? Where was it? Where??????????
Why didn’t every Republican oppose his nomination?
But they did not.
Come on. He WORKED FOR GOLDMAN SACHS DIRECTLY!
Just stop now. Stop with your absurd arguments. They don’t make any sense. Biden has won and he’s installed his team. Both political parties have people who have worked for years in the private sector and in the government at all levels. It has been like that for 75 years or more.
I want the best people in government. If you start saying because you worked for a private corporation you can’t work in government, you won’t get the best people.
“It’s her second cousin that was a Managing Director at Goldman Sachs who now works at Citadel.”
Oh no! Gasp. Someone she has likely never met before works at a financial firm. Oh no.
“Who is Biden’s choice to be SEC Chairman – Obama’s head of CFTC Gary Gensler who previously worked at Treasury and was the CFO of Clinton’s 2016 campaign”
You DO realize that Gensler is known to be quite a regulator and will likely crack down on all the bs that Trump’s team allowed to go on?
You are hilarious WP. You make no sense. You make these “oh my gosh look” arguments about someone who is going to literally crack the whip.
LMFAO.
“I just turned 50. Wish I had the credentials/history/connections to be considered for appointment. Wouldn’t be a bad way to spend the next 15 years.”
I heard they were desperate for immigration judges and don’t you get the pension there too?
Also heard they need government mediators and they also get a nice salary and pension.
All these opportunities are out there for you anonny.
“Yeah, naked shorting to the extent of 140 percent of the outstanding stock will do that. It’s also evidence of the fact the hedges were trying to create an artificial price.”
No. It’s evidence that a lot of them thought it was a good position to take. Shorting 140% was not the goal. It was the result. And if you think that attempting to move the price of a stock is a recipe to riches give it a try some day. You can do it on a small scale. Just find a thinly traded security and put in a market order to buy a significant fraction of the daily volume (if your brokerage will let you. See, they might not because they don’t want you to get screwed. Hmmm.) Then immediately put in a market order to sell what you just bought. What do you think will happen? You’ll find out that you didn’t manipulate shit. The only way to make money like that is to find a greater fool to offload your position on.
“As for the now “artificial” price (and I agree, it is), it came about as a result of the hedge funds exposing themselves to a short squeeze. Which came first, the short or the squeeze? Answer – the short.”
The artificial price came about as a result of a bunch of loons risking their money to create a short squeeze without regards to personal profit. They ended up transferring their wealth to some pension fund in Canada I believe.
“Who is Peter Van Buren? And why was he reading some supposed files?”
Peter is a former State Department Foreign Service Officer who was fired after writing a book on waste and mismanagement during reconstruction in Iraq. He has contributes to publications including American Conservative, New York Times,Guardian,Reuters,Huffpo and Medium.
The owner of the repair shop, John Paul Mac Isaac attempted to contact Hunter Biden for four months and received no response. In August 2019 Mr. Isaac decided to contact the Albuquerque FBI office and was ignored.
A couple of months later two FBI agents from the Wilmington office visited the repair shop. Mr. Isaac offered to give them the hard drive but they declined. Two weeks later he was given a subpoena and eventually handed over the laptop to the FBI and never heard from them again.
Mr. Issac later offered Rudy Giuliani’s office a copy of the hard drive which was shared with the New York Post. The laptop was the property of the repair shop under Delaware law.
Peter Van Buren received a copy through his editors at The American Conservative, who assured him that the people who gave them the information had access to Hunter’s original laptop.
The Bidens have never denied that it was Hunter Biden’s laptop or denied validity of any information on it. Could be one of the reasons Biden’s press secretary has been asking reporters to give them questions in advance.
https://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2020/10/yes-the-hunter-biden-emails-are-authentic-by-larry-c-johnson.html
“No. It’s evidence that a lot of them thought it was a good position to take. Shorting 140% was not the goal. It was the result. And if you think that attempting to move the price of a stock is a recipe to riches give it a try some day. ”
————————
The “good position” was to short Gamestop so much that it was 140 % oversold. These hedge funds were professional traders, Gary, not pikers like you and me. They could move markets,and they knew the overall short position when they were shorting.
Comparing your or my market power to a hedge fund’s market power is like comparing a T-ball kiddie player to Babe Ruth or Hank Aaron (RIP).
The point, Johnc, is that you can conduct an experiment on a small scale to prove that making money on a market moving trade is next to impossible. Because in order to profit from it you have to reverse the trade. And in the process of reversing the trade the market moves in exactly the opposite direction it moved when you put on the trade. The only way to profit is if market sentiment has changed. And that’s the real hope – that market sentiment has changed in between because you knew something the rest of the market didn’t and they finally caught up to your insight.
““No. It’s evidence that a lot of them thought it was a good position to take. Shorting 140% was not the goal. It was the result. And if you think that attempting to move the price of a stock is a recipe to riches give it a try some day. ”
Gary what both these groups did was exploit market inefficiencies.
The Hedgies are smart enough to understand that having that large of a short sends a signal. The WSB folks thought that there was move value in the company, knew that the Hedgies were levered and utilized that exploit the price.
You can make money on a bet like that if you’re in early enough, know what you’re doing and are a Pig, not a Hog. The guys shouting “GME to $1000” were Hogs and likely got slaughtered
“You DO realize that Gensler is known to be quite a regulator and will likely crack down on all the bs that Trump’s team allowed to go on?”
LMFAO
Need the John McEnroe “You Cannot be Serious” GIF hetre
“You DO realize that Gensler is known to be quite a regulator and will likely crack down on all the bs that Trump’s team allowed to go on?”
You Do realize they will crack down on friends of Roaring Kitty while letting Robinhood off with a small fine given their Chief Legal Officer was the SEC Chairman under Obama. I’m sure Gensler is well acquainted with him.
Again, the Elite protect the Elite. This is the whole point of my posts but you want to make it about left v right. The whole Reddit thing was about going after the Elite and the past how many administrations “crack downs” have been pay a fine and move along. The same people continue to be in place.
Look at our new Defense Secretary and Secretary of State and how they set up a SPAC after the election which promises to “well-suited to take advantage of the current and future opportunities present in the aerospace, defense and government services industries” per its prospectus. That’s the same level of corruption as the prior administration and the administration before that.
How do they not have to divest this interest? How is this not brought up in a confirmation hearing? What an absolute joke. Don’t worry Citadel bought a 7% stake in it.
Gensler I have an investigation for you. Think he will crack down on this one?
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/09/spac-with-ties-to-biden-cabinet-picks-sees-surge-in-wall-street-support.html
“The point, Johnc, is that you can conduct an experiment on a small scale to prove that making money on a market moving trade is next to impossible. ”
————————
The point, Gary, is that small scale trades DON’T move the market. To move the market, even on relatively thinly traded stocks, have to be big in proportion to the market for that stock. “Small scale” need not apply.
Secondly, while in theory the stock would move back down as one unwound his position, in practice that is not always the case. Sometimes suckers follow. Sometimes one manages to unload a portion of the stock before the market catches on and the price declines. I’ve taken big positions in stocks and unwound them. Can’t say i moved the markets, but I’ve managed to eke out small profits unwinding my positions before the price started falling.
“Gary what both these groups did was exploit market inefficiencies.
The Hedgies are smart enough to understand that having that large of a short sends a signal. The WSB folks thought that there was move value in the company, knew that the Hedgies were levered and utilized that exploit the price.”
But I wouldn’t say that the hedgies’ goal is to purposely create a huge short position for the signal effect. They wouldn’t take that position unless they thought the upside benefit was worth the risk, which they underestimated. And, though we might disagree on that point, I certainly wouldn’t call that market manipulation.
“But I wouldn’t say that the hedgies’ goal is to purposely create a huge short position for the signal effect. They wouldn’t take that position unless they thought the upside benefit was worth the risk, which they underestimated. And, though we might disagree on that point, I certainly wouldn’t call that market manipulation.”
Its not their prime goal nor did I say it was, but its a desired or advantageous affect. Melvins positions were known and money follows “smart” money. The Melvin guys arent dumb and the bet was no one would go against their position. They were the guys at the table that had the biggest bank roll and didnt think they’d get challenged. In the end the market stayed irrational longer than they could stay solvent.
Now its WSB’s turn at the irrational/solvency
“Yellen wouldn’t be in charge of investigating this WP. Treasury has nothing to do with it. This is under the purview of the SEC and DOJ.”
LOL how wrong you are. She is now summoning and leading all of the financial regulators in looking into the GameStop issue. She is now violating her own ethics disclosure when she joined Biden’s cabinet less than two weeks ago. Heckuvajob!
“Yellen has requested an ethics waiver to hold the meeting, a Treasury spokeswoman said, confirming a Reuters report.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-03/yellen-summons-regulators-to-discuss-financial-market-volatility?srnd=premium&sref=i4qXzk6d
“Peter Van Buren received a copy through his editors”
He received a copy of the “dupe” [note: if Mac Isaac** did that, certainly a tort, possibly a crime] of the hard drive via Rudy?
He makes all sorts of claims of what *is on* “the laptop”–not the purportedly duplicated hard drive.
Serious credibility gap there–you only leave that distinction out if you intend to mislead.
**Dude’s family name in ‘Mac Isaac’, not Isaac–or was Larry referring to someone else?
“But I wouldn’t say that the hedgies’ goal is to purposely create a huge short position for the signal effect.”
—————————-
Of course not, but overselling to that extent was a market manipulation. The hedges just hoped that people would miss the resulting signal, and they were wrong. The hedges’ thinking was probably “who pays attention to a thinly traded tiny company?” What they didn’t think was “who pays attention to us?” Well, guess what? piling into a short position to drive a stock into the ground was a signal heard loud and clear, and the reddit traders gleefully slammed the hedges. A rare victory for the little guy.
The hedges didn’t create the short for the sheer joy of creating a signal. They did it to manipulate the market and make money.
Remember, not all trades are created equal. You can buy and never unwind your position. You can sell a long position with no future obligation. If you sell into a short position, however, then you guarantee that you MUST buy, and usually in the near term. So unlike your thought experiment to me in one of your earlier posts, Gary, unwinding a position depends on what the position is, and the market may not co-operate and give you a zero-sum result.
Just ask any Gamestop short.
“He makes all sorts of claims of what *is on* “the laptop”–not the purportedly duplicated hard drive.”
Peter Van Buren refers to “the files”, saying that that were supplied to TAC by a known source previously established to have access. Agree he should have consistently referred to files instead of laptop in the post, but I don’t agree that not doing so makes it misleading. The photos that were published increase the probability that the emails were originally from a device owned by Hunter Biden.
“**Dude’s family name in ‘Mac Isaac’, not Isaac–or was Larry referring to someone else?”
My summary Of Larry’s post cut off the “Mac” from “Mac Isaac”, but I don’t see anywhere that Larry made that mistake.
As to criminality of Mac Isaac copying files from the computer and giving them to third parties, cybersecurity attorney Mark Rasch is not as certain as you are. He brings up “fair use” and “public interest” exception to copyright laws, says this about hacking/unauthorized access:
“So did the repairman “hack” Hunter Biden’s computer? Magic 8 ball says, “Maybe.” But in light of the child porn cases, a Court would likely say that by giving the computer to a third party, you abandoned your expectation of privacy in the computer.”
https://securitycurrent.com/blind-macs-bluff/
“LOL how wrong you are. She is now summoning and leading all of the financial regulators in looking into the GameStop issue.”
No, I’m NOT wrong.
I said she’s not in charge of regulating them. And she’s not. As it says she is summoning “all of the financial regulators.” It’s NOT her job.
What IS her job is making sure there is no run on a bank or a brokerage or a hedge fund that could disrupt the financial markets and the financial industry. That’s why she is calling the group together to find out what they know, if there is any danger to any institutions etc.
I sure as hell would hope our Treasury Secretary would be talking with others in the government to make sure there was no brewing crisis.
But SHE doesn’t “regulate” them. That is SEC, DOJ and others. Powell might also be called into that.
Get over yourself WP. Is it going to be 4 years of whining about the most prepared Treasury Secretary in US history?
Move on.
“You Do realize they will crack down on friends of Roaring Kitty while letting Robinhood off with a small fine given their Chief Legal Officer was the SEC Chairman under Obama.”
Robinhood is a brokerage. It is highly regulated as I’ve already said. And am now saying it again. If they break the rules, they get fined.
If traders do the same, they, too, get fined.
In financial bubbles, which is what we’re in with the stock market, speculation goes so crazy that it eventually bursts.
Everything you are mentioning WP is just more indications that the bubble is expanding.
But don’t worry. Warren is now on the financial committee in the Senate and she’ll put on some good regulations on things like the SPACs once it blows up. Lol.
I guarantee it.
Of course, it will be too late to stop it from busting. But at least it won’t happen again.
‘But don’t worry. Warren is now on the financial committee in the Senate and she’ll put on some good regulations on things like the SPACs once it blows up. Lol.”
I’m sure Rachel Dolezal will be fighting the man LOL
“but overselling to that extent was a market manipulation.”
You keep making this assertion but provide no evidence that it is true. In order for it to be manipulation you would have to demonstrate that a) they created an artificial price and b) that was their intent. You can prove neither. And I’m convinced they helped maintain an accurate price. I’m not even sure they created it.
“A rare victory for the little guy.”
Losing money is not a victory.
“Gary, unwinding a position depends on what the position is, and the market may not co-operate and give you a zero-sum result.”
That was my point. Unwinding a short is not guaranteed to give you a profit or a zero sum result. Unless market sentiment has changed the best you can hope for is breaking even. The shorts are betting that the rest of the market will realize what they know.
“You keep making this assertion but provide no evidence that it is true. In order for it to be manipulation you would have to demonstrate that a) they created an artificial price and b) that was their intent. You can prove neither. And I’m convinced they helped maintain an accurate price. I’m not even sure they created it.”
——————————-
Gary, short selling keeps the market honest. I have no problem with that and have done it myself. At one point or another, however, a difference in degree becomes a difference in kind. Overselling to that extent (140% of the entire issue) only makes sense when one is trying to panic the longs into selling. That’s manipulation.
As for losing money is not a victory — it’s the hedge funds that have lost money, not the little guys — yet. Will the little guys lose money? Sure, eventually, but right now, they are winning, and the hedge funds are bleeding like stuck pigs. Why are the hedges bleeding? Because their attempt at market manipulation backfired.
Sabrina comment January 13th: “Wake up. This is the hottest market since the housing bubble but it has strong underlying fundamentals.”
Sabrina comment last week on this thread “The sizzle is on. Stock market hits new highs every day. The rich are rolling in cash right now. They want to spend it. Real estate is hot again.”
Sabrina Comment last night…. “In financial bubbles, which is what we’re in with the stock market, speculation goes so crazy that it eventually bursts.
So in three weeks we have gone from the housing market is really hot due to underlying fundamentals to the housing market is being driven by continuous record highs in the stock market to the stock market is in a bubble. This would imply that housing is in a bubble as its driven by the stock market per your comments. Pick a lane.
When you finally realize Sabrina is constantly trolling to attempt to get more traffic on her site from commenters, it all makes sense.
I am going to be selfish here and try to evoke conversation about a different place.
Considering purchasing a unit at 444 W Belmont. Looking for opinions and insights on this building?
Also, do we expect the market to bottom out further?
“I don’t see anywhere that Larry made that mistake.”
Ah–this was your summary!
“Mr. Issac later offered Rudy Giuliani’s office a copy of the hard drive which was shared with the New York Post.”
Fair enough. My mistake.
[on the QT to a certain someone: See how easy that is!!]
“When you finally realize Sabrina is constantly trolling to attempt to get more traffic on her site from commenters, it all makes sense.”
I’m going throw a little Occam’s Razor in here and say that its fundamentally due to her being unintelligent
“I’m going throw a little Occam’s Razor in here and say that its fundamentally due to her being unintelligent”
————————-
Harsh, dear boy, harsh. Wasn’t something once said about the relationship between cognitive dissonance and being a real estate shill?
“Harsh, dear boy, harsh.”
Oh I’m sure I’ll get call a misogynist, and cant handle a powerful woman and all that jazz
“Wasn’t something once said about the relationship between cognitive dissonance and being a real estate shill?”
Why not both?
“Is it going to be 4 years of whining about the most prepared Treasury Secretary in US history?”
The most prepared to do what exactly? Import disastrous FED policies that’s led to the worst economic inequality since the Gilded Age?
Is she prepared to sign off on how great getting rid of the SALT caps would be for “growth” that the coastal elitist Dems are now clamoring for their hedge fund and tech coastal donors? After the party spent a year drooling over each other in the primary and general how they would “tax the rich”.
Or is she going to provide cover to Biden on how he broke his promise of $2,000 checks which were supposed to occur day one if you elect Warnock and Osoff? Now it’s $1,400 but wait we need to means test this. How NeoCon of the most “progressive” administration ever.
Man of the people this Yellen is.
“‘Wasn’t something once said about the relaionship between cognitive dissonance and being a real estate shill?’. Why not both?'”
———————————
I think that was the relationship.
WP: This isn’t a site about politics.
Go find somewhere else to whine.
Thanks.
“When you finally realize Sabrina is constantly trolling to attempt to get more traffic on her site from commenters, it all makes sense.”
How can you tell we’ve entered into another bull housing market?
When the posters on Crib Chatter start attacking me for trying to “get” more traffic to the site. Last time I heard that was, oh, gosh, 2008, maybe?
Next I’ll hear that I’m really HH and I invented him to get more clicks. Oh wait, I HAVE heard that before.
Yawn. Same old, same old.
sonies, I would expect better of you. You’ve been here a LONG time. You know better.
“So in three weeks we have gone from the housing market is really hot due to underlying fundamentals to the housing market is being driven by continuous record highs in the stock market to the stock market is in a bubble. This would imply that housing is in a bubble as its driven by the stock market per your comments. Pick a lane.”
Just because you have a bubble expanding in stocks doesn’t mean you do in housing, or vice versa.
Luxury real estate will be sizzling hot when the stock market is at record highs. It’s always how it works. Rich people have the vast majority of their assets in stock. When they soar, they look at their accounts and realize, yes, I really CAN buy that aspen ski chalet. Thank you Tesla.
In 2007, there was a bubble in housing, but not one in stocks. In 1999 there was a bubble in stocks, but not one in real estate. Even in Silicon Valley, there was no bubble.
So the argument holds.
Oh, and, yes, the stock market will burst. And it will bring down luxury housing with it. When will it burst? I don’t know. Bubbles take 4 to 5 years to finally bust. Don’t know where we are in this one. Year 2? Year 3? The year it will burst?
No one can time it.
“Also, do we expect the market to bottom out further?”
Is it “bottoming”?
Spring home buying season began a few weeks ago but inventory is so low, it’s going to be tough out there for buyers. Prices are moving higher on some types of properties, especially single family homes in popular neighborhoods.
The market will slow when/if mortgage rates rise at least half a point. That’s what slowed it a few years ago and it will do so again.
“ WP: This isn’t a site about politics.
Go find somewhere else to whine.”
LOFL
No can be this self unaware
“Overselling to that extent (140% of the entire issue) only makes sense when one is trying to panic the longs into selling. That’s manipulation.”
No. First, no one short seller drove the aggregate short position to 140%. Each one acted in their own self interest and they wanted the position they took, which I assume was less than 100% of the float. They took the position only because they thought it made sense for them. Second, keep in mind that the longs were 240% of the float. Do we accuse them of manipulating the stock? Third, the resultant price was reasonable so no manipulation.
“it’s the hedge funds that have lost money, not the little guys — yet. Will the little guys lose money? Sure, eventually, but right now, they are winning, and the hedge funds are bleeding like stuck pigs. Why are the hedges bleeding? Because their attempt at market manipulation backfired.”
Wrong. Several hedge funds were long and profited to the tune of hundreds of millions at the expense of the little guy. Also, the Ontario teacher’s pension fund sold a long held position for $500 MM. Again at the expense of the little guy. There should be no doubt that plenty of little people were buyers on the way up and now the stock is on the way down – as it had to be.
“Second, keep in mind that the longs were 240% of the float. Do we accuse them of manipulating the stock?”
————————-
The longs don’t need to sell, the shorts need to buy. Two different dynamics. The shorts were trying to goad panic selling to put their positions in the money. The longs need do nothing, and doing nothing is NOT manipulation.
“Ontario teacher’s pension fund sold a long held position for $500 MM.”
That was Macerich, right? And still at a substantial (paper? not sure when they bought) loss.
“In 2007, there was a bubble in housing, but not one in stocks”
This is comical. The stock market peak was October 9, 2007 and in 18 months it declined over 50%. Look at how many stocks are directly and indirectly tied to the housing market. April fools day is a few months away Sabrina.
“That was Macerich, right? And still at a substantial (paper? not sure when they bought) loss.”
Might be a loss but up substantially from the bottom. So that recovery was at the expense of the Reddit players.
“This is comical. The stock market peak was October 9, 2007 and in 18 months it declined over 50%. Look at how many stocks are directly and indirectly tied to the housing market. April fools day is a few months away Sabrina.”
I would say that Sabrina, “she” is retarded. But “she” is a group of google analysts.
” The longs don’t need to sell, the shorts need to buy. Two different dynamics. The shorts were trying to goad panic selling to put their positions in the money. The longs need do nothing, and doing nothing is NOT manipulation.”
The shorts don’t need to buy as long as they have sufficient capital. And you keep asserting that the shorts were trying to create a panic but you have no proof that that was the goal. Their putting on the short positions does not cause panic selling. Their only goal was to hang on until the market realized that the company was overvalued.
“The shorts don’t need to buy as long as they have sufficient capital.”
———————
Actually, that’s not strictly true. Shorts can be forced to cover if the borrowed shares used to complete the short sell are in turn sold by the true long owner at the specific brokerage and the brokerage cannot borrow from other brokers to complete the sell order. It’s rare, but it does happen.
The risk the oversold shorts created only makes sense if they were trying to create a panic. There was too much conscious parallelism going on to look at the shorting traders individually.
“The risk the oversold shorts created only makes sense if they were trying to create a panic. There was too much conscious parallelism going on to look at the shorting traders individually.”
No. All that is required for the positions to make sense is for them to believe that the price of the stock is too high.
“No. All that is required for the positions to make sense is for them to believe that the price of the stock is too high.”
——————————–
And the belief Gary, is fostered by seeing what one’s fellow hedge funds are doing. Shorting to 140 % is trying to drive panic selling by the longs.
Be that as it may, Kansas City for the win. Much as I love Brady and Gronkowski (NE boy here), KC takes it
“I would say that Sabrina, “she” is retarded. But “she” is a group of google analysts.”
Google analysts? WTH IS that?
You keep repeating that.
Get out of the conspiracy chatrooms Bob.
I think Google has bigger things to think about than to be “running” (is that even correct?) a Chicago housing blog for 14 years.
I think they have their hands full with YouTube, which makes them billions every quarter.
Lol.
But, again, as I’ve said before, when the housing market has turned bullish, and sharply so, the bears show up out of the woodwork to argue why it can’t possibly be.
You know it’s a bull market when it’s being parodied on SNL:
https://www.today.com/popculture/snl-zillow-sketch-may-be-show-s-most-accurate-ad-t208285
“This is comical. The stock market peak was October 9, 2007 and in 18 months it declined over 50%.”
A stock market high is NOT a bubble.
Sigh.
Children.
Go read about what a “bubble” actually is.
There was NO bubble in the stock market in 2007.
Want to know why it declined 50%? Oh, wait, the banks blowing up and millions of people losing their jobs. Oh, and a nice big recession.
Today’s housing market is NOT in a bubble.
It doesn’t even meet the first criteria which is speculation. But other things do:
1. Stock market
2. Crypto currencies
“No can be this self unaware”
You too JohnnyU.
Tired of the sexist whining you all do. If you have something to contribute to housing, please contribute. Otherwise, go find the dark corner of the Internet for your nonsense.
Pointing out your stupid comments, lies etc is now sexist?
Interesting that you prefer to throw out the charge of “sexism” Vs defend your ill conceived opinion.
That says a lot about a person.
Helmethofer,
Ron Wright just died of Covid. You can add that to your list.
JohnC:
You are just making assertions at this point.
I posted my January update this morning. January sales were up 17.1% (will be 14.1% according to IAR) from last year. At this point trailing 12 months is slightly higher than calendar year 2019 so we’ve completely recovered from the pandemic dip. Also, condo inventory is normal, not high (months of supply basis).
http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2021/02/chicago-real-estate-market-update-powerful-start-to-2021/
“I posted my January update this morning. January sales were up 17.1% (will be 14.1% according to IAR) from last year. At this point trailing 12 months is slightly higher than calendar year 2019 so we’ve completely recovered from the pandemic dip. Also, condo inventory is normal, not high (months of supply basis).”
Thanks for the update Gary.
I notice that the bears are nowhere to be found on this thread because none of the data fits their bearish thesis, not even condos. Lol.
When will comps start to get difficult though? Is it as late as May or June?
This part of your report was interesting Gary:
“A significant increase in contracts for home purchases is confirming the rise in closings. We’ve had 8 consecutive months of large increases. January contracts were up 15.8% over last year so that should continue to feed the growth in closings for the next month or two.”
It looks like the hot market is going to continue.
And, frankly, there isn’t much inventory coming on at all. The spring selling season begins this week. February is when there should be a surge in inventory.
The crappy weather could impact listings, however. And, it’s unclear if COVID will as well. But Illinois positivity rate is way down so some home sellers will probably feel okay listing. We shall see.
But if you want to buy a single family home, forget about it. It’s still THAT tight.
“I notice that the bears are nowhere to be found on this thread because none of the data fits their bearish thesis, not even condos. Lol.”
2.5 million homes in forbearance of which most programs end between March – May.
Also, you need to stop with the if you don’t believe the market is super hot than you are a bear and think its crashing. People (myself included) do not think this is going to last but aren’t predicting an 08 style crash. I think it moderates in the second half as alot of these sales are being pulled forward due to the pandemic. It’s hard to see the market for SFH in the city especially staying at <2 months inventory for all of 2021 while continuing double digit price increases. It's not sustainable. You just posted how new home sales in the city plunged in 2020.
Further, as multiple articles have stated, there is a bifurcation between the suburbs and city sales. This is going to continue. Suburbs have a longer runway especially when there is no end in site with the pandemic.
In addition, people are moving to the southeast/southwest in droves not the northeast and rustbelt (including Chicago/Illinois). This is a secular shift much like the higher home sales in the suburbs compared to the city.
Banking on Millenials and Gen-Z who are up to their eyeballs in student loan debt and don't have the downpayment to continue the strong growth of home sales is a fools errand. The first time homeowners that can afford to do this are moving out of the city not in.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-mortgage-relief-ends-soon-for-millions-of-homeowners-11612866600
“You just posted how new home sales in the city plunged in 2020.”
That was just in developments with over XX [some double digit number] units. It’s not indicative of most city SFHs.
I generally agree with everything else.
“I notice that the bears are nowhere to be found on this thread because none of the data fits their bearish thesis, not even condos. Lol.”
We’re “Back to normal” and you’re celebrating? Watching you try and manipulate numbers and move goalposts is like watching a monkey try and fuck a football
The Condo market is shit because there zero appreciation and the owners who were leveraged to purchase dont have enough equity to get out.
The condo market may not be shit any more. Most of the January increase was in condo sales and months of supply is the same as last year.
“Most of the January increase was in condo sales and months of supply is the same as last year.”
You include all MultiFam/attached in w/ condos correct?
With the large increase towards Condos, how did that affect median sale price? Do you have median & mean sales pricing for both catigories?
The Condo market wont be shit when there’s capital appreciation.
“The crappy weather could impact listings, however. And, it’s unclear if COVID will as well.”
Do you know what else impacts listings – being underwater and having little to no equity. Per Crains article:
“The report from, Attom Data Solutions, shows that among the nation’s 10 biggest metro areas, Chicago has the largest share of homeowners so far underwater on their mortgage that they couldn’t sell without losing a good deal of money, and the smallest share with enough equity that a move-up buy would be easy. ”
“But Attom’s report makes clear that many people can’t afford to move.”
“At the end of 2020, nearly 9 percent of Chicago-area households with a mortgage were seriously underwater, which Attom defines as owing at least 25 percent more on the mortgage than the home is worth on the market.”
“Nationwide, 5.4 percent of homes were seriously underwater at the end of 2020.”
“In the Chicago area, a little over 18 percent of households with a mortgage were equity-rich at the end of 2020, according to Attom. In the other nine biggest cities, at least 23 percent of homeowners with a mortgage were equity rich. In Los Angeles, nearly 52 percent were in that position.
Nationwide, about 30 percent of households with a mortgage were equity-rich at the end of 2020.”
Chicago housing so hot I may sink to the bottom of Lake Michigan!
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/residential-real-estate/might-be-why-you-cant-find-house-buy
“The rich own simple things. Like the NASDAQ index.”
Looks like they also own Bitcoin. Special thanks to Janet Yelling for her years at the FED whose sole purpose was to debase the dollar and make the rich richer. I’m so happy she is Treasury Secretary. Housing to the Moon!
https://www.axios.com/bitcoin-tesla-dollar-purchase-0b36b0f5-305e-4b84-b72a-77b68059f28c.html
“Chicago housing so hot I may sink to the bottom of Lake Michigan!”
Yawn.
Not this AGAIN.
Chicagoland has had the lowest level of equity since the housing boom. So about 14 years.
It’s no secret that our prices haven’t risen like other big metro areas.
Doesn’t mean the housing market isn’t hot WP. Sorry.
Low inventory but strong demand means that prices WILL rise.
According to Gary, there’s just 1.8 months of inventory of single family homes. That’s incredibly low. Many buyers who are looking cannot buy because there’s nothing to buy.
“You include all MultiFam/attached in w/ condos correct?”
Yes.
“With the large increase towards Condos, how did that affect median sale price? Do you have median & mean sales pricing for both catigories?”
I don’t pay that much attention to mean and median prices but they went up double digit percentages for both types of housing.
“The Condo market is shit because there zero appreciation and the owners who were leveraged to purchase dont have enough equity to get out.”
Why are you just making things up JohnnyU?
The banks have been tight with credit. You would know this if you hadn’t been living in the same suburban house for the last 30 years.
They HAVE screened well and most buyers over the last 10 years have put down a down payment AND they’ve been paying down the loan for years.
This isn’t 2008 when everyone had 80/20 loans.
Most have money to “get out” JohnnyU. If they didn’t, we’d be seeing short sales.
Where are those?
Come on. Get a grip.
This is the best housing market in Chicago and the suburbs since the housing boom. And the spring selling season is only just beginning.
“2.5 million homes in forbearance of which most programs end between March – May.”
This is the dumbest argument ever. Keep at it housing bears. Keep at it.
It was nearly 5 million homes last year. The number keeps going down.
There’s no doubt some people aren’t paying because they can. Many have equity. The banks will work with them. Are you going to walk away from your $1 million house in LA? No.
Also, the “millenials and Gen-Z have school debt” is as wrong as those who STILL say the Millennials all live in their parents basements.
The oldest Millennials are 40 this year. 40!!!!!!!!
And, like I said, demographics predicted this housing boom years ago. 2020-2024 was the years when the largest group of Millennials would be aged 28-32, which is now the key marriage age range. Once they marry, they think about having kids. And that’s when they want to move out of the apartment into something else.
The pandemic made them decide to bypass the 3-bedroom condo altogether and seek out the single family home. Many cannot afford the north side single family home housing prices so they raced to the inner suburbs.
But with mortgage rates so low, it may be cheaper to buy than to rent. Condos remain hot in the neighborhoods with low inventory and, as Gary’s data for January showed, it actually DROVE the market that month. It’s probably because there is simply not enough single family homes to buy or else Chicago’s housing market would be even hotter.
Plenty of people are moving to Chicago and Chicagoland. We still have one of the best job markets and one of the best cities in the country. And its the most affordable big city.
Stats show that Chicagoland is not losing the population but downstate Illinois is. And, we know from the Tribune’s own study, that most who move out of state move to nearby states of Wisconsin, Indiana and Missouri.
However, yes, the sunbelt continues to be red hot as well. Nashville and Austin are popular for ex-Chicagoans.
Chicago is going to explode with energy when the pandemic is over, likely by the summer. But we’ll see how quickly the vaccine gets rolled out and how badly we’re hit by the British variant in the next few weeks.
Keep trying bears. Keep trying to gaslight double digit yoy sales increases and the hottest housing market in 14 years.
Keep trying.
Again, this is a multi-year bull housing market we’re entering into. This is just the first inning.
By the way, developers WILL soon decide to start building for sale units (condos/townhouses) and NOT rental buildings.
A rental building in the West Loop just filed to change the units to condos. It will be the first of many.
“I don’t pay that much attention to mean and median prices but they went up double digit percentages for both types of housing.”
I agree that the metric isnt very useful, however there’s a certain shill that likes to tout the number as proof to a HAWT market ™
“Why are you just making things up JohnnyU?”
Why are you a drunk racist Sabrina?
“The banks have been tight with credit. You would know this if you hadn’t been living in the same suburban house for the last 30 years.
They HAVE screened well and most buyers over the last 10 years have put down a down payment AND they’ve been paying down the loan for years.
This isn’t 2008 when everyone had 80/20 loans.”
More bullshit. Banks arent tight with credit. They havent gone full moron with liar loans, they also arent requiring 20% down either. You would know this if you got your head out of the boxed wine and left your cat pissed filled garden apartment
“Most have money to “get out” JohnnyU. If they didn’t, we’d be seeing short sales. Where are those?”
Its nice when you create strawmen.
They cant get out because at best they’re breaking even on the sale price, have limited equity from the condo sale to roll into a upgrade (SFH or TH). I almost feel bad for anyone thats taken your advice and bout a shitty condo in the last 3-5 years, been a terrible investment.
Come on. Get a grip.
Come on. Get sober and stop with the racism. You’re worse than HH
“Low inventory but strong demand means that prices WILL rise.”
Who is there that “has to” buy right now?
“Are you going to walk away from your $1 million house in LA? No.”
The owner of the $1MM LA house likely didn’t lose their job. The owner of a $500M or below house in Chicago may have. If you have equity in the home and still no job when these programs run out you will put it up for sale and downsize thus increasing inventory which is what the WSJ says will happen per BlacKnight.
“The oldest Millennials are 40 this year. 40!!!!!!!!”
As of 2019 GenX was carrying the highest amount of personal debt. They are older than Millennials.
“Once they marry, they think about having kids.”
Correct. They think. They don’t have. Pandemic data is starting to flow in from states showing births in 2020 in California, Florida, Ohio, and Arizona are down double digit’s from the year before and population growth in the country is at it’s lowest since WWII.
“Plenty of people are moving to Chicago and Chicagoland…. Chicagoland is not losing the population but downstate Illinois is.”
North America Moving Services shows Illinois is the top outbound state in the country since the pandemic started and U-Haul has it as 2nd worst in outmigration. Chicago’s population is flat compared to 2010 but has decreased on an annual basis for 4 straight years. The only area that was growing was downtown Chicago (River North, South Loop, West Loop). That is not the case anymore with the pandemic.
“But we’ll see how quickly the vaccine gets rolled out and how badly we’re hit by the British variant in the next few weeks”
Considering the State is bungling the rollout and is in the bottom quartile of percentage of vaccines used I don’t think this bodes well. Indiana, Wisconsin, and Michigan are in the upper 70% – low 80% in vaccine utilization while Illinois flails in the wind in the upper 60%. Chalk this up to another thing our state can’t do.
“Keep trying bears. Keep trying to gaslight double digit yoy sales increases and the hottest housing market in 14 years.”
Again no one is gaslighting. The data today points to homes selling and low inventory but lets see how things are in the second half of the year. Is the second half of 2020 and first half of 2021 a blip or a larger trend? I’m not ready to say it’s a trend. Again, I think we will be higher at YE in inventory with lower price appreciation. Do we have 3 months of inventory or are we closer to 5 – 6 months. Does price appreciation slow to high single digits or are we back to low single digits?
“Pandemic data is starting to flow in from states showing births in 2020 in California, Florida, Ohio, and Arizona are down double digit’s from the year before and population growth in the country is at it’s lowest since WWII.”
I think we’ll have to look at 2021 births in relation to the pandemic, not 2020. Anyways, I’d expect there to be a boom of first-born babies, and a huge drop in second or more babies.
“I think we’ll have to look at 2021 births in relation to the pandemic, not 2020.”
Brookings expects about -8% in ’21 (based on 2019 births of ~3.75m):
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/12/17/the-coming-covid-19-baby-bust-update/
“By the way, developers WILL soon decide to start building for sale units (condos/townhouses) and NOT rental buildings.”
How soon is soon (or now)?
At what price point?
“A rental building in the West Loop just filed to change the units to condos. It will be the first of many.”
A proposed 41-story all-condo building in the south loop amended plans to now be half apartments. Do better than anecdotal Sabrina.
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/residential-real-estate/south-loop-tower-scales-back-condos-adds-apartments
“A proposed 41-story all-condo building in the south loop amended plans to now be half apartments. Do better than anecdotal Sabrina.
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/residential-real-estate/south-loop-tower-scales-back-condos-adds-apartments”
I swear there was delusional rantings about how developers were going condo not apartment? Now who did that come from?
Not to defend the moron in question, but this is what I think she was referring to – https://blockclubchicago.org/2021/02/04/west-loop-developers-pivot-from-apartments-to-19-story-project-with-1-3-million-condos/
Which is considerably downsized from the original project and with an average price of $1.3MM, is in line with my projection that condo developments will be higher end, not like some moron claimed that the would be “affordable”
Some idiot was also talking about not needing cars living in the city, funny as this place has a higher parking ratio
Additionally, They’re not going to start marketing till fall, so plenty of time to pivot or hit the dustbin.
Not to help the idiot, but think she meant this one
https://blockclubchicago.org/2021/02/04/west-loop-developers-pivot-from-apartments-to-19-story-project-with-1-3-million-condos/
A lot smaller than originally planned, higher end (ave price $1.3MM) – in line with my comments wrt condos and not “affordable”
They’re also not marketing until fall, so plenty of time to pivot again or fall in the dustbin. Regardless of said idiots claims, its not a done deal and the extended time to market means the developer isnt super confident in said pivot
“The owner of a $500M or below house in Chicago may have.”
————————————–
That cut off is too high. The rule of thumb (made before student debt became a big factor and condos were a novelty) is that you can afford 2.5 times your gross income. That means a $500,000 house needs a $200,000 family income behind it. Service industry people who cannot work from home (wait staff, sales ladies, messengers, etc.) aren’t earning that kind of money.
Get down to someone buying a $250,000 two-flat and needs the rent from the second unit to make the numbers work.
The fact that there is so little on the market in the $300,000 to $500,000 range show that those owners are employed, even if there is a foreclosure moratorium.
“That cut off is too high.”
You complain about my “cut-off” but not the $1MM that Sabrina metions….
“That means a $500,000 house needs a $200,000 family income behind it. Service industry people who cannot work from home (wait staff, sales ladies, messengers, etc.) aren’t earning that kind of money.”
Double digit price increases in a year as Sabrina cites mean that $500M house was ~$450M a year ago or lower depending on when and/or where it was bought. You don’t think there are service employees in the Chicago area who bought cheap in an “up-and-coming” neighborhood post-08.
Further, you cannot be this obtuse and think only wait staff at the local Chili’s or your corner dive bar have been affected. Airline employees, airline manufacturers (take a look at Boeing), hotel industry, live-events industry, professional sports clubs (including the Cubs), event industry (McCormick Place, weddings, etc.), oil & gas, anyone in the Commercial leasing industry, and yes restaurant staff. Alot of people in these industries are making $75K – $125K (or more).
Back to your “service industry people”. You think the people that work corporate at One-Off-Hospitality Group which owns around a dozen restaurant concepts including Big Star, Doves, The Violet Hour, etc. haven’t laid off any of its corporate staff? How bought Lettuce Entertain You? These include the corporate roles including accounting, finance, HR, technology, sales, etc. You think they are paid like “service industry people”.
“The fact that there is so little on the market in the $300,000 to $500,000 range show that those owners are employed, even if there is a foreclosure moratorium.”
The CARES act provided one year of relief. Go read the WSJ article. That relief dries up for the majority of the 2.5MM people between March – May unless there is an extension/modification to the program. HUD reports that Illinois specifically the Chicago/Naperville/Elgin area is #3 in delinquencies nationwide (behind Atlanta and Houston) as of the end of Q3 2020.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cubs/ct-chicago-cubs-covid-19-tom-ricketts-20200924-vytyan23cjdjlbuejoa7wo2scu-story.html
WP,
Of course they’ve laid off staff, but the hardest hit were, and are, people who could never afford a $500,000 home.
Did the hospitality industry lay off back office staff in addition to front line people who could not work from home? Sure. The ratio of front to back lay offs is high, I bet.
Do I think service industry employees “bought cheap” post 08? Very few. Employment didn’t start rebounding in a meaningful way until 2011-12.
As for Sabrina, she thinks that Bucktown extends South of Armitage, so I just ignore what she says.
Do I think service industry employees “bought cheap” post 08? Very few. Employment didn’t start rebounding in a meaningful way until 2011-12.”
Median sales price in Humboldt Park was $97K in 2012. So, yes I think service employees could afford this. The same home today is worth $300K – $500K depending on location. Catch up.
“You don’t think there are service employees in the Chicago area who bought cheap in an “up-and-coming” neighborhood post-08.”
Yes. I know people who bought $100,000 homes in Humboldt Park.
Milkster bought several foreclosure/short sale homes in those initial years after the bust for cheap in neighborhoods like Portage Park. She has probably doubled her initial investment in those bungalows.
This site has documented the price increases in neighborhoods like Avondale and Jefferson Park over the past 14 years. If you bought one of the short sales, you’ve done well.
Plenty of those in the service economy could have been buying.
Heck, I know someone who bought a house for $105,000 on the South Side 14 months ago. Just before the pandemic hit. A nice 3-bedroom brick bungalow. He’s in a service job.
Also, just a reminder about how Illinois law works with foreclosures: even if several thousand can’t pay up or re-fi with their banks once the moratorium is lifted, it will take YEARS for those properties to come back on the market.
Banks will have to file lis pendens and then go through the courts.
On this site, we’ve documented at least one foreclosure where it took 7 YEARS for the bank to take back the property. It was a luxury condo in the Gold Coast and the owner paid the assessments and lived in the unit all those years without paying.
Heck, there were others who were posting in the comments on this site about living in their condos without paying for years as well. Lol.
Inventory is super low NOW. None of these foreclosures will have much impact on inventory for years and years. If ever.
By this summer, the economy will be rebounding. Housing market is only going to get healthier and hotter. Again, many owners will have plenty of equity to refi OR sell and move.
.”The rule of thumb (made before student debt became a big factor and condos were a novelty) is that you can afford 2.5 times your gross income.”
That’s old. That’s when mortgage rates were 7%.
“Some idiot was also talking about not needing cars living in the city, funny as this place has a higher parking ratio”
Nope. 20% of GenZers don’t even get their license when they turn 16.
They. Just. Don’t. Care.
My kids don’t own cars. They take Ubers and public transportation.
“A proposed 41-story all-condo building in the south loop amended plans to now be half apartments. Do better than anecdotal Sabrina.”
Again, a rental building in the West Loop is now going to try for condos.
It will be the first of many.
There is NO inventory and we are in the first stages of the new bull housing market. It will take developers several years to catch up. In the meantime, look for some apartment buildings to convert to condos. This is how the last cycle started.
That will meet demand. And the developer doesn’t need an expensive construction loan to do it.
“Brookings expects about -8% in ’21 (based on 2019 births of ~3.75m):”
Who’s having babies during all of this?
No one I know.
Maybe the tune will change by the summer if the pandemic starts to ease and the COVID cases come way down.
Also, many young women are watching what is happening to working mothers and they may make other choices about having children. It’s been horrific for working mothers during this pandemic.
“Correct. They think. They don’t have. Pandemic data is starting to flow in from states showing births in 2020 in California, Florida, Ohio, and Arizona are down double digit’s from the year before and population growth in the country is at it’s lowest since WWII.”
Once they marry, demographic trends shows it takes 2 to 3 years before they have children.
That is why this is a 4+ year trend that we are entering. No different than when the Baby Boomers all started buying homes at the same time.
It’s simply the numbers. Millennials are the largest generation in US history. Those who thought they would never buy homes were just flat-out wrong.
And, yes, you are all trying to gaslight the hot data that is coming out every single month.
We’re supposed to “wait” a few more months for the bad news to come? When the economy will certainly be reopening then and Powell keeps saying he’s keeping rates low until the working class are back at their jobs?
What would be the catalyst for the housing market to slow in the next 6 months?
That’s the better question.
“More bullshit. Banks arent tight with credit.”
Again, JohnnyU has been living in his suburban house for 30 years. He hasn’t gotten a mortgage in a LONG time.
Getting a mortgage today is a long, nasty process where, yes, they check EVERYTHING. There are cut-offs in FICO scores and you need to put money down (not the 20% everyone assumed would return after the bust, but if you put down less you’ll pay PMI.)
Those who have gotten loans in the last 10 years have had relatively high credit scores. A housing crisis will do that. The Fed watching the banks and requiring stress tests will also do that.
In fact, I’ll go so far as to say that the buyers of the last 10 years are probably the most financially healthy homeowners in 50 years.
And, yes, they have money in their homes to sell. If they bought 3 years ago, are they making anything? All depends on the location, the block, the building etc.
Bought in downtown, then they probably will lose money after paying their real estate agent.
But we’re just not seeing many short sales JohnnyU. You can whine all you want and say I’m wrong all you want. But the data is the data.
Get a grip JohnnyU. You’re wrong about Chicago’s housing market and it’s getting laughable at this point.
How many months of great numbers do you have to see? I guess it’s going to be a couple of years of them because that’s what we have coming.
Remember everyone: in order for prices to go down we will need thousands of properties to come on the market.
And given that developers are building almost nothing, it’s not like it’s coming from new construction. So where is it all going to come from?
It’s not.
Better get your “deal” now, while you can. If you even can.
“I almost feel bad for anyone thats taken your advice and bout a shitty condo in the last 3-5 years, been a terrible investment.”
Housing is NOT an investment.
I have said that on this site from the get-go in 2007.
I have also referred people to the NYT’s rent v owning calculator where you can see how many years you have to own to make it worth your while versus renting.
There are too many transaction costs in housing to sell after just a few years. The fees will eat up any appreciation in Chicago, which has historically averaged 1% to 3% a year for the last 100 years.
“I agree that the metric isnt very useful, however there’s a certain shill that likes to tout the number as proof to a HAWT market ™”
Nope.
I never talk about the median price on this site except to include it in the monthly updates because that’s the data they use.
I’ve talked about it many times over the years that it’s not relevant because it just reflects the mix and if a $20 million house happens to sell that month it can literally skew the number.
Anyone who has been on this site for many years knows this.
By the way, I’m so excited to see the Chicago housing market FINALLY entering into another bull market.
It’s been a long 14 years of documenting the bearish conditions and the stop and go.
We need some big, new developments of condos, townhouses and single family homes to really get things going. And not just $1 million units. When are they going to build something new for the intro buyers?
I’m not saying downtown, where the costs don’t add up. But other neighborhoods ARE available.
“Nope. 20% of GenZers don’t even get their license when they turn 16.
They. Just. Don’t. Care.”
Because the decision you make at 16 are permanent
“My kids don’t own cars. They take Ubers and public transportation.”
And of course your kids reflect the entire generation.
“Getting a mortgage today is a long, nasty process where, yes, they check EVERYTHING. There are cut-offs in FICO scores and you need to put money down (not the 20% everyone assumed would return after the bust, but if you put down less you’ll pay PMI.)”
Family member got one 4 mo ago, no problem
So you agree with me that you have to put money down and the comment about PMI is typical pointless fluff you post when youre wrong
“Those who have gotten loans in the last 10 years have had relatively high credit scores. A housing crisis will do that. The Fed watching the banks and requiring stress tests will also do that.
In fact, I’ll go so far as to say that the buyers of the last 10 years are probably the most financially healthy homeowners in 50 years.”
Because 2 shitty loan programs are off the table (NINJA & 80/20), the loan market isnt that tough
“And, yes, they have money in their homes to sell. If they bought 3 years ago, are they making anything? All depends on the location, the block, the building etc.
Bought in downtown, then they probably will lose money after paying their real estate agent.”
No and the properties you post validate my thesis
“But we’re just not seeing many short sales JohnnyU. You can whine all you want and say I’m wrong all you want. But the data is the data.”
This is called a strawman. I didnt say shortsales/forclosures, I said theres no appreciation or they’re losing money and thus dont have the capital to upgrade
“Get a grip JohnnyU. You’re wrong about Chicago’s housing market and it’s getting laughable at this point.”
I see you’re drunk again.
“How many months of great numbers do you have to see? I guess it’s going to be a couple of years of them because that’s what we have coming.”
If you dont think that Covid pushed sales out you are alot dumber than I give you credit for
“Remember everyone: in order for prices to go down we will need thousands of properties to come on the market.
And given that developers are building almost nothing, it’s not like it’s coming from new construction. So where is it all going to come from?
It’s not.”
Seeing you lashing out about how HAWT ™ the market is, yet arent putting any money where your keyboard is, to me is funny. Where is all this capital appreciation in existing condo/home sales? Oh thats right its not there
Try and sober up
“Housing is NOT an investment.”
You’ve jumped the shark shill
“I have said that on this site from the get-go in 2007.”
You say a lot of contradictory things, hence why you imagine you are correct. Everyone else views it as the nonsensical ramblings of a drunk, cat lady shill.
“There are too many transaction costs in housing to sell after just a few years. The fees will eat up any appreciation in Chicago, which has historically averaged 1% to 3% a year for the last 100 years.”
yet you’re touting the buy now or be riced out for ever mantra
“That’s old. That’s when mortgage rates were 7%.”
—————————————
It’s also before student loans became a knee on kids’ necks and a lack of real growth in wages. People who stick with 2.5X gross income tend not to get in trouble financially.
Real estate shills paid on commission, and their hangers-on be damned.
“My kids don’t own cars. They take Ubers and public transportation.”
So what have they been doing for nearly a year? Walking? Not going anywhere (not that there’s anything wrong with that, and in fact is probably commendable)? Even as someone who lives in a small city and works in a mid-size city, I too was taking public transportation and Ubers, almost daily, but I haven’t since mid March.
“Banks will have to file lis pendens”
Do you understand what you wrote there?
“if a $20 million house happens to sell that month it can literally skew the number.”
If you use Rodkin’s definition of median (the midpoint point b/t the highest and the lowest), it would really skew it–would be over $10m.
“We need some big, new developments of condos, townhouses and single family homes to really get things going. And not just $1 million units. When are they going to build something new for the intro buyers?
I’m not saying downtown, where the costs don’t add up. But other neighborhoods ARE available.”
The only place you are allowed to build in this city is around the loop. Unless you are repurposing an eye sore commercial or industrial area around the city into homes/condos you can’t get passed the NIMBY’s without some protracted multi-year fight about how sub $1MM units will cause gentrification.
An expanded and amended ARO ordinance is coming for alot of Chicago neighborhoods in 2021 which will continue to depress new construction in the price points that are needed. We will continue with the knocking down of 2 and 3 flats to build the $1MM+ SFH since it doesn’t require a zoning change.
“any appreciation in Chicago, which has historically averaged 1% to 3% a year for the last 100 years.”
Price growth has averaged CPI + 25-75 bps. You can look it up.
I don’t think that “price growth” and “appreciation” are really the same thing, but there’s certainly room to disagree about that.
“When the economy will certainly be reopening then and Powell keeps saying he’s keeping rates low until the working class are back at their jobs?”
It will not be “re-opening” by summer. We still have no idea when high schoolers and college students can go back to school. The teachers unions continue to move the goalposts and not “follow the science”. They are now setting their eyes on not wanting to re-open come fall.
The “working class” are not getting their jobs back this year. Most company’s that laid off are not going to hire the same amount of people back. The sales either won’t be back (airlines, airline manufacturers, hotels) or automation and efficiencies that brought down costs to stay open will continue.
Powell said yesterday the real unemployment rate is not 6% it’s closer to 10%. We have the lowest labor force participation rate since 1948. That’s not rebounding in a couple of months. You think the unemployed are worried about interest rates (unless they are refinancing)?
Good lord you realize that none of these people have a clue (or a spine) of how to get out of this from a financial/jobs perspective.
It will be doubling down on bad policy and looking at the stock market which is what we have judged success on for the last 10+ years. The “working class” is oozing with enthusiasm.
“We have the lowest labor force participation rate since 1948.”
WTF? Where’d you get that?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
61.4 for Jan-21, which would have been the high water anytime before May-75.
Even the Apr-20 bottom of 60.2 wasn’t topped until Aug-69.
“WTF? Where’d you get that?”
Apologies, largest 12 month decline since 1948.
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/real-unemployment-rate-closer-10-percent-says-fed-chair-jerome-n1257331
So what have they been doing for nearly a year? Walking? Not going anywhere (not that there’s anything wrong with that, and in fact is probably commendable)? Even as someone who lives in a small city and works in a mid-size city, I too was taking public transportation and Ubers, almost daily, but I haven’t since mid March.
They’re made up.
A cat lady living in a garden apartment, doesn’t have kids
“So what have they been doing for nearly a year? Walking? Not going anywhere (not that there’s anything wrong with that, and in fact is probably commendable)?”
They walk, they’ve been taking the subway and buses and they still take ubers (drivers required to wear masks and the windows are open.)
Otherwise, they’re not telling me what else and I don’t want to know. Lol.
Young adults don’t have the same fears of the coronavirus. Go look at the bars in Old Town right now. They are filled to the maximum capacity every weekend.
Yep, WP. The hospitality industry continues to get crushed. You can really see how big it is in our economy by these numbers.
Lots of jobs connected to business travel, conventions, tourism, dining, vacations etc.
I know people who work at museums who are furloughed (again).
And because of capacity restrictions on things like gyms and beauty salons, many workers have really reduced hours. Beauty salons have to socially distance so all of their employees can’t be working at the same time. My hairdresser has gone to working only on weekdays, no more weekends, and she has lost a day of work as a result.
“We still have no idea when high schoolers and college students can go back to school.”
WP. Tsk, tsk.
High schoolers are all back to school in the suburbs. Have been for weeks. They are doing hybrid though. Will likely be full time by the fall after all the teachers have been vaccinated.
College students are on campuses across the country. Most classes still being taught online though. Depends on the school and the size of the classrooms.
It’s all about the vaccine.
And, yes, the global economy will be reopening by the summer. There’s going to be a huge boom.
Just for fun I was looking around at hotel rates on Mackinac Island for the summer. I know it’s always peak season but you’re not getting much under $300 a night. And many were $400 to $500 a night.
Lol
Better book your summer/fall trips now. And don’t expect any deals.
“The only place you are allowed to build in this city is around the loop.”
They are building a nice single family housing development west of Rush so this is just a lie WP.
Come on.
Lol.
“So you agree with me that you have to put money down and the comment about PMI is typical pointless fluff you post when youre wrong”
JohnnyU: You DO know that you have to pay PMI if you put down anything less than 20%, right?
Okay then.
“Seeing you lashing out about how HAWT ™ the market is, yet arent putting any money where your keyboard is, to me is funny. Where is all this capital appreciation in existing condo/home sales? Oh thats right its not there”
I’m not a real estate investor. As everyone on this site knows, I work in finance. Stocks are a much better investment.
I buy real estate to live in. That’s all.
But we are in the early stages of this real estate cycle.
Anyone else see the Zillow earnings this week?
Best they’ve seen in 15 years. They are super bullish. Same with Redfin. And those are the brokerages, not even the builders.
There’s simply not enough inventory. And, so far, this spring selling season has started out really slowly in Chicago in terms of properties coming on the market.
If you are in the market, it must be terrible out there.
“And of course your kids reflect the entire generation.”
Yes- they do. It’s well documented that younger people don’t care about getting their driver’s licenses and don’t have any intention of buying a car.
“that younger people don’t care about getting their driver’s licenses and don’t have any intention of buying a car.”
Google: You will own nothing and be happy Great Reset
They are using the COVID hoax to destroy the middle class. We aren’t going to be reopening soon. They want a slave class of people, herded into small apartments where all you have is a flat-screen TV and an Iphone and a bed & couch. Hudson yards is the prototype, you never have to leave the complex. You will be in a fancy prison. They didn’t count on people jumping off their satanic “artwork” https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/12/nyregion/hudson-yards-suicide-vessel.html
After the COVID bs becomes tiresome, they’ll use “climate change” restrictions on the mass public. You’ll first need the jab to travel and then they’ll find other ways to restrict the sheep. Satanic actor Robert Downey Jr. invested in a French company that will be growing insects for food. Because cow farts warm the planet, beef prices will be going thru the roof. Only the elite will be eating it, in secret. You will be getting your protein from insects and soy.
“JohnnyU: You DO know that you have to pay PMI if you put down anything less than 20%, right? ”
———————————–
Tell that to the VA.
Semper Fi
HH, your conspiracy theories are so sad.
If only ANY of what you spew was actually happening only it NEVER does.
And if you keep being a COVID denier on this site I will simply delete all of your comments.
The VA funding fee is the mortgage insurance. They just don’t charge it monthly. The funding fee is 1.4 to 2.3% of the mortgage depending on down payment and is usually financed into the loan balance (most VA loans are 100% financing so 2.3% is the norm). So on a $400,000 loan the vet is actually paying up to $9200 in mortgage insurance.
If vet is disabled, there is no funding fee.
Technically, VA loan is just a type of mortgage insurance, just like FHA. It isn’t a loan, but an MI program.
VA loans are the best deal going. No loan limits anymore for 100% financing. Can literally buy $1 million+ properties with no money down and rock bottom rates.
“Will likely be full time by the fall after all the teachers have been vaccinated.”
Um no. The unions are moving the goalposts and want all students to be vaccinated now. Biden is governing like an empty suit without a spine. He campaigned on re-opening within the first 100 days. He hasn’t said a dang thing on this issue.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/schools-plan-potential-remote-learning-fall-75752218
The City of San Francisco filed a lawsuit against the School Board last week because it has no plans to re-open even though San Fran’s positivity rate is below 3%. The same battle is also occurring in NYC as well as every major big city with a far left teachers union.
https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/02/03/san-francisco-sues-school-district-over-closed-campuses-with-no-end-in-sight-1361744
“Will likely be full time by the fall after all the teachers have been vaccinated.”
Um no. The unions are moving the goalposts and want all students to be vaccinated now. Biden is governing like an empty suit without a spine. He campaigned on re-opening within the first 100 days. He hasn’t said a dang thing on this issue.
The City of San Francisco filed a lawsuit against the School Board last week because it has no plans to re-open even though San Fran’s positivity rate is below 3%. The same battle is also occurring in NYC as well as every major big city with a far left teachers union. For whatever reason the teachers unions want to fight everyone in their own party and there’s very little push back.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/schools-plan-potential-remote-learning-fall-75752218
If only ANY of what you spew was actually happening only it NEVER does.
Truer words were never spoken about Sabrina
“Yes- they do. It’s well documented that younger people don’t care about getting their driver’s licenses and don’t have any intention of buying a car.”
Do you ever get tired of lying?
“In fact, 92 percent of Generation Z (which, for this study, includes current 12- to 17-year-olds) plan to own a vehicle, while 97 percent plan to get a driver’s license if they don’t have one already.”
https://www.autoblog.com/2016/03/16/generation-z-wants-cars-study/
https://www.theguardian.com/food/2021/feb/01/grubs-up-mealworms-are-on-the-menu-but-are-we-ready-for-them
“I’m not a real estate investor. As everyone on this site knows, I work in finance. Stocks are a much better investment.
I buy real estate to live in. That’s all.
But we are in the early stages of this real estate cycle.”
So you wont take the easy money offered in the HAWT market ™?
Embarrassing
“But, again, misogyny plays a large part of it. It’s okay when men do it, not okay when women do it. It’s women using their power. How DARE they have any.”
Actual misogyny from the Biden administration. Where’s Jim Acosta when you need him to hold an administration accountable.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/02/i-will-destroy-you-biden-aide-threatened-a-politico-reporter-pursuing-a-story-on-his-relationship
In fact, 92 percent of Generation Z (which, for this study, includes current 12- to 17-year-olds) plan to own a vehicle
This is a 5-year-old* study conducted by 2 organizations with a vested interested in car ownership. The study isn’t linked in the blog post, so there’s no way of verifying whether the blog’s summarization of the study is accurate.
*5 years is pretty significant when your study includes 12-17 year old participants.
https://www.chicagocontrarian.com/blog/what-crains-wont-publish-what-executives-really-think-about-the-future-of-chicago
You know what I miss the least about Chicago? Walking 5 or 6 blocks through downtown in business attire, twice a day, along with tens of thousands of other people on a crowded sidewalk, with negative windchills blasting my face, ears and nose. I’d be wearing dress shoes and having to jump over slushy 4 feet wide puddles of water at every crosswalk, every so often getting my foot soaked with water, and taking off my shoes at my desk to let my sock dry.
Occasionally, I’d walk through the pedway, and nearly puke at the smell of the dozens of homeless people sleeping in their soiled clothes, half worried a four some of wildlings will jump out from around a corner and mug me for my wallet and jacket. And then you open the door from the smelly pedway to the CTA entrance, and another blast of cold air in your face.
And waiting for the local train that turned to an express train as it zooms by with on it’s way to as an express to Grand….and the snow from the track blasts you in the face if you don’t turn around and look the other way the exact moment..
And then doing this five days a week for three or four really cold months a year.
Yeah, I don’t miss that one bit. Thank goodness I never have to do it ever again. Bye Bye Chicago.
“They are using the COVID hoax to destroy the middle class.”
Who is they and how did you find out what they are up to?
HD: That was well-written. You should try your hand as a novelist. You forgot the part where the character then pops into Monk’s Pub to avoid the sidewalk slush, and….we can all chime in as to what happened next in pre-COVID Chicago tales of the city.
Gary, the COVID regime and restrictions are not going away. After that, the same regime will implement the Green New Deal and climate-change bullshit restrictions. Bureaucrat interventions into economic matters rarely work, and they can turn sinister and evil when implemented by atheists with too much hubris.
Bidenism is clearly in that vein, we are headed for severe restrictions. Watch the UK, they are the test case for the most bizarre social experiments, lockdowns, etc. that they hope to export to the rest of the West.
Sorry folks, the days of flying to Cabo for a quick vacation are OVER for the middle class. The rank-and-file folks were getting to uppity, actually achieving the same lifestyle as the Gates’ almost. No more European vacations either. Vegas will have to be shut down because the air conditioning of those hotels and casinos is against the climate-change regime’s mentality.
“Electric stove tops and ovens are the future due to climate change.”
LOL!! See? They want to rule your lives. You will own nothing and be happy! (except if we don’t own anything, and neither will Millenials, then who does own it? somebody has to)
“After that, the same regime will implement the Green New Deal and climate-change bullshit restrictions. Bureaucrat interventions into economic matters rarely work,”
Moderate liberals are starting to wake up to the dystopian progressive policies that have been implemented in the “liberal utopia” called California. This is a good sign for the country. The party of “science, truth telling, unity and kindness” are finally starting to recognize the virtue signaling bull that their party is all about.
Bill Maher has complained every week for the past month about how it’s taken 3 years to get a shed up to code to put a solar panel on top of it which the State still won’t turn on and then jokes saying “if I turn it into a homeless shelter will that work”.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/11/opinion/california-san-francisco-schools.html
“HD: That was well-written. You should try your hand as a novelist. You forgot the part where the character then pops into Monk’s Pub to avoid the sidewalk slush, and….we can all chime in as to what happened next in pre-COVID Chicago tales of the city.”
But it’s not a novel, it’s biographical. That was my existence every day since 1995 or 1996 until this year. And now everything has changed, almost completely for the better too.
A year or two ago I saw some Chicago headline to an article about the ‘worst’ part of the pedway. I immediately knew it was the Marshall Fields part. And of course it was, because it’s awful.
I never much did Monks pub much, but I did manage to make my way to the west loop to drink at [insert newest, hippest & expensive small plate restaurant]. I was always partial to Publican personally, so yeah, I miss that a little. The closest restaurant to my office, as the crow files, is probably an Olive Garden, so yeah, it’s a bit of a change, but I sure don’t miss those cold as hell walks down Madison or Randolph in the middle of winter.
This latter part of winter has been pretty brutal around Chicago – but I now realize that at least 75% of the brutal parts of winter involved waiting for the train, shoveling spots for dibs, and walking blocks through wind tunnels in sub-zero temperatures at 8:00 am to get to the office down town on Monday mornings. My quality of life has increased substantially commuting to a suburban office park.
“Watch the UK, they are the test case for the most bizarre social experiments, lockdowns, etc. that they hope to export to the rest of the West.”
But that’s Trumpism, HH. Boris and Trump had the same COVID policies. Oh wait, until their hospitals got overwhelmed and then they figured it out.
Why no complaining about the Danes? They have instituted just as sharp restrictions in recent weeks as the Brits. Have even closed the schools when they were among the first to re-open them last year. They are limiting gatherings to 5 people or less.
What do they know?
Come on. For your crazy conspiracy theories to actually be true, all of Western Europe would have to be “in” on it (for whatever dumb reason- but I’m sure you’ll tell us all.)
“Sorry folks, the days of flying to Cabo for a quick vacation are OVER for the middle class.”
Says the man who has NO passport and has never left the country.
You have NO clue.
People were just posting on social media the last few days of the crowded customs area in Cancun’s airport as thousands of Americans are heading south for their spring breaks right now. Mexico is still open for business. And it’s just as cheap, if not cheaper, to fly and stay than it is to go to Florida.
“Actual misogyny from the Biden administration. Where’s Jim Acosta when you need him to hold an administration accountable.”
He quit WP. Imagine that.
“So you wont take the easy money offered in the HAWT market ™?”
We are in the first innings of a bull cycle in real estate. Haven’t had one in 14 years.
It’s not a bubble JohnnyU. No money is ever “easy” in a bull. Too many transaction costs to “make money” in real estate, even in a bull market. Except for renovators and developers. They can make money. But I’m not either one of those things.
You don’t miss out on a bull cycle if you OWN real estate JohnnyU.
But stocks have been the best performing investment in America over the last 100 years.
Be diverse. Own several asset classes.
“Um no. The unions are moving the goalposts and want all students to be vaccinated now.”
There is no vaccine for children WP.
Let’s discuss the incredible savings that Americans are piling up. It’s several trillion dollars now. Savings rate has come down from spring of last year but is still over 10%, which is a multi-decade high.
As soon as the pandemic eases this summer, some of that money will get spent immediately on vacations.
But what else?
Will people still spring for that kitchen or bath remodel? Will they still put in the outdoor kitchen or the pool?
I’ve heard from friends it’s an 18 to 24 month wait to do a basic kitchen remodel in Chicago because they are so booked right now.
Savings should be a big boost to the economy on top of the next aid package, millions returning to work and a big infrastructure plan.
“Yeah, I don’t miss that one bit. Thank goodness I never have to do it ever again. Bye Bye Chicago.”
Yeah- commuting from the suburbs to ANY major city basically sucks. Agreed HD. That’s why cities became so popular. People want the shorter commute. They don’t want to take the metra or drive. Screw living in Naperville or Barrington. Why would you do that to yourself?
They want to walk, take the water taxi or, gasp, the subway (but even that’s not so great because it’s so crowded.)
That’s why a lot of people will choose the McDonald’s schedule. Before COVID, they were 25% working from home on any given day. Many were only in the Fulton Market HQ 3 days a week.
For knowledge workers, that kind of flexibility will be the norm at most employers.
Most will live in the city to have access to all its amenities and then have shorter commutes for when they DO have to go into the office.
You’ll see the same in San Francisco, Austin, LA, DC, Atlanta, Tampa etc.
“The VA funding fee is the mortgage insurance.”
Thanks for the update Russ.
I had a friend who bought using one of the other low down payment mortgages (don’t remember the name of it) which required just 3% down. But he had to pay the same “fee” up front (it was rolled into the mortgage, of course) AND he has monthly PMI that can NEVER be refinanced off the loan even if he gets to 20% of the assessed price.
The fee up front actually added another $6,000 or more onto the loan at the close ($300,000 loan). It was a lot, actually.
“Gary, the COVID regime and restrictions are not going away. After that, the same regime will implement the Green New Deal and climate-change bullshit restrictions.”
You still haven’t answered my questions and they are not rhetorical. Who is they? Who is the “regime”? How do you know what they are up to? How are they organized?
“I had a friend who bought using one of the other low down payment mortgages (don’t remember the name of it) which required just 3% down. But he had to pay the same “fee” up front (it was rolled into the mortgage, of course) AND he has monthly PMI that can NEVER be refinanced off the loan even if he gets to 20% of the assessed price.”
The FHA changed to not doing this automatically when they get to 77 or 78% LTV. If the VA still charges this beyond 80% LTV they can always refinance into a conventional loan without it. If the VA charges it much below 80% LTV that doesn’t seem right as that is essentially stealing from people.
” Boris and Trump had the same COVID policies.”
There’s this thing called the constitution and States Rights. Not sure if you are familiar with it. That’s the reason why Biden’s mask mandate only covers Federal lands/property.
But wait I thought we didn’t discuss politics on this site.
“Let’s discuss the incredible savings that Americans are piling up. It’s several trillion dollars now. Savings rate has come down from spring of last year but is still over 10%, which is a multi-decade high.”
Let’s discuss who is able to save and who is not. The unemployment rate per Powell is higher than the Great Recession. So the savers are at the top and already own homes. Either they trade up, move to the burbs, or buy a second home. I’m sure some will go on vacation but to more rural areas. Hiking and biking aren’t a big boon to the economy.
“Savings should be a big boost to the economy on top of the next aid package, millions returning to work and a big infrastructure plan.”
The next “aid package”. Looks like Biden is more worried about Gun Control which will work out as well as when Republicans try to curb abortion rights or when Trump banned immigration from certain countries at the beginning of his term. There was bi-partisan support at the beginning of the Trump presidency for infrastructure. He destroyed it by attacking immigration. Biden’s killing any chance of bipartisanship by going after guns. Also, Joe Manchin who literally shot the CAP and Trade Bill in his campaign ad I’m sure is going to go along with this. Biden wants a bill on his desk for Gun Control before Covid relief…… the priorities of this administration amazes me.
Further, Democrats are already making the current aid package more difficult to pass since Manchin and Sinema are against the $15 minimum wage even though Florida passed it via ballot measure with 60% of the vote yet Trump won Florida by a higher margin than in 16 or Obama in 08 or 12. Seems like a no-brainer but here we are.
The means testing of the stimulus checks aren’t going to be popular with the left wing of the party and the right wing of the Democrat party I imagine will push back on the initial outlays of State and Local aid. Tying to unemployment rates looks like a bailout instead of just tying it to citizens per capita. Oh don’t forget the SALT breaks that only help millionaires and billionaires in coastal states and I’m sure there will be a fight around $600 or $400 enhanced unemployment benefits between the Manchins Sinema’s against the Bernies and Warrens.
If Biden and Harris along with a couple or Senators and balking at getting rid of the filibuster i’m sure they won’t be doing much about the Byrd rule either which seriously impedes any agenda they hope to accomplish and limits what they can do (Byrd Rule) during reconciliation.
You are overly optimistic.
FHA charges an upfront mortgage insurance premium that gets rolled into the loan of 1.75% and a monthly MI premium. They changed their rules about three years ago so that MI is permanent regardless of the loan to value. So FHA will will ALWAYS have MI on it for life of the loan.
VA always has MI as well regardless of the loan to value unless the vet is disabled.
Both FHA and VA are just mortgage insurance programs, not actually loans; hence the premiums charged. That is how they fund the program.
MI on conventional / jumbo loans falls off automatically at 78% LTV based on the original amortization schedule. However, you can sometimes have it removed earlier if you can show an appraisal or have made payments to reduce the LTV down to 80%.
“There is no vaccine for children WP.”
Fauci has said multiple times children don’t need to be vaccinated to be back in school. The CDC agrees with him. The party of science and truth telling is ignoring the science and the truth. Biden campaigned on opening schools within 100 days of his presidency. He is beholden to special interests like the teachers unions.
“He quit WP. Imagine that.”
Biden set the standard that the stuff this dude pulled would be an immediate firing. Instead they initially suspended him for a week to see if it would blow over given impeachment that was occurring. Given that it didn’t blow over I imagine they asked for his resignation. Why set standards if you are going to ignore or waive them. See ethics disclosures and Yellen.
“Let’s discuss the incredible savings that Americans are piling up.”
Are you joking? Small businesses bankrupted. Eviction moratoriums extended because people are broke. PPP the only lifeline for many. Unemployment benefits exhausted for many. Biden had to bribe his way by promising $2000, only delivering $1400. COVID hoax lockdowns leading to more suicides, drug use, depression. Pot sales are now legal. BLM rioters and their single-forever-ugly-feminist friends and pedo-Antifa male allies aren’t saving a dime, if they even work. You have 200,000 gang members in Chicago, how many 401Ks do they have. They are clamoring for a $15 minimum wage because people have no savings. Corporate America isn’t hiring.
The best advice is to get in on the Green New Deal scam somehow. Trillions of US citizens’ tax money will be diverted to these satanic scum who want us to eat protein from bugs and worms or in Gates’ case from fungus: https://thespoon.tech/gates-backed-natures-fynd-unveils-initial-products-made-from-fermented-fungi/
Travel to Mexico is not free-flowing. Just go to CDC website and read the restrictions and advisories. The UK is not anything like the USA, they are far worse for all kinds of malevolent test cases that will be exported to the rest of the West. UK has the worst lockdowns, is the test case for radical euthanasia, societal/cultural decay via radical immigration and Scotland is apparently the test case for “zero net CO2 emissions” being forced to achieve it first. Good luck to their citizens earning decent livings beyond peasant-level feudal existence.
“Biden set the standard that the stuff this dude pulled would be an immediate firing. Instead they initially suspended him for a week to see if it would blow over given impeachment that was occurring. Given that it didn’t blow over I imagine they asked for his resignation. Why set standards if you are going to ignore or waive them. See ethics disclosures and Yellen.”
cause Sabrinas a clown of low intelligence, without a need to be consistent
“The best advice is to get in on the Green New Deal scam somehow. Trillions of US citizens’ tax money will be diverted to these satanic scum who want us to eat protein from bugs and worms or in Gates’ case from fungus: ”
Is the Green New Deal moving forward? I have not heard this.
Who are these satanic scum? Please show us your evidence. Prove they want us to eat protein from bugs.
You really do confirm the stereotype of the far right extremist. You are not doing your people any favors.
“You really do confirm the stereotype of the far right extremist. You are not doing your people any favors.”
Can’t we all just focus on Chicago and it’s real estate?
“demographics predicted this housing boom years ago. 2020-2024 was the years when the largest group of Millennials would be aged 28-32
The pandemic made them decide to bypass the 3-bedroom condo altogether and seek out the single family home.”
The Tribune has facts and data that do not support your opinion. Is the Tribune a housing “bear”? Are they “gaslighting” as you said earlier? I know they are to the “right” that talks alot about the “Illinois Exodus” compared to the Sun Times but this isn’t an opinion or editorial piece. I don’t think the right wing hedge fund owner needed to sign off on this one.
Yes, they quote only a downtown apartment broker so discount his quotes a little. It would have been good if they interviewed a realtor as well to see if they were seeing/thinking alike. Like New York saw in January, Chicago saw a jump in leasing activity per the article. Again, I’m not yet ready to call the Chicago home market a “boom” or a “blip”. I’ll wait until the 2H of 2021 to make that call. The suburbs should have more runway.
From the piece….
“Klauser is among the almost 1 in 5 millennial renters who believe they will never own a home, according to a recent report from ApartmentList.com. Up from 12% a year ago”
“The economic inequalities that contribute to low millennial homeownership are strengthening, not weakening,” the report concludes.”
“With ongoing moratoriums on evictions, a surge in home sales and falling rents, the volatility of a rapidly shifting market have some millennials questioning the need for such a life-altering financial investment.”
“Millennials have begun to close the gap, with half of new mortgages going to millennial buyers. But 4 in 10 of those surveyed by ApartmentList.com said the COVID-19 pandemic had a direct impact on their plans for homeownership, delaying or putting into question their search for a home.”
“Meanwhile, millennials have been hit particularly hard financially during the pandemic, with a higher rate of job loss and longer stretches of unemployment.”
https://www.chicagotribune.com/real-estate/ct-re-millennial-renters-apartment-affordability-0215-20210216-7oehhm24c5adnm76tplwbla42i-story.html
“You really do confirm the stereotype of the far right extremist. You are not doing your people any favors.”
“Can’t we all just focus on Chicago and it’s real estate?”
ironically posted by a prototype far right suburban extremist (imho) w a bad case of TIS. hd recently complained abt encountering low-income Chicagoans in the pedway which certainly demonstrated his own laser like focus on real estate. But as a proud boys/bugaloo/etc supporter hd feels obligated to defend all far right extemists.
Didn’t hd promise he quit cc forever? Typical lies from a far right extremist ime
Maybe Bloomberg is a bear too? As they are questioning what comes next as home prices nationally peaked in July with certain “red-hot” markets like New York suburbs having a fall in asking prices. Kenosha County just over the Illinois border where a lot of people moved to last year also declined 1% in mid-January.
Questioning what comes next doesn’t mean you are a bear Sabrina.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-12/surge-in-u-s-home-prices-eases-in-sign-pandemic-rally-may-cool?srnd=storythread-QOMIN5DWLU6J01
““Klauser is among the almost 1 in 5 millennial renters who believe they will never own a home, according to a recent report from ApartmentList.com. Up from 12% a year ago”
“The economic inequalities that contribute to low millennial homeownership are strengthening, not weakening,” the report concludes.””
This is exactly what Sabrina wants – No Poors or Minorities in the city
Fitch Ratings must also be a “bear” for daring to question the housing market.
“Longer term, however, home price growth in these suburbs will likely cool over time as the comfort level with central business districts increases with rising vaccination rates and the health crisis waning.”
“For investors in housing bonds, there also could be fresh risks tied to the planned rollback of crisis-era rules that limit how much mortgage debt a homeowner can take on relative to their income.
Specifically, the previous administration removed the set 43% debt-to-income limit of the so-called “qualified mortgage” (QM) rule and broadened the parameters of how lenders can verify a borrower’s income. The QM rule was established after the 2008 global financial crisis to make mortgages less risky and easier for borrower to understand.
The changes to the rule, unless challenged by the Biden administration, are scheduled to become effective March 1, 2021 and to be followed with mandatory compliance on July 1, 2021. Any “regulatory freeze pending review” of the changes by the Biden administration could impact the issuance of both housing bonds with and without government guarantees, Fitch said.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/big-city-flight-led-to-surging-suburban-home-prices-will-it-outlast-the-pandemic-11613510270?mod=home-page
“Klauser is among the almost 1 in 5 millennial renters who believe they will never own a home, according to a recent report from ApartmentList.com. Up from 12% a year ago” AND “The economic inequalities that contribute to low millennial homeownership are strengthening, not weakening,” the report concludes.””
I was trying to tell everyone this. “You will own nothing and be happy is part of the Great Reset”. Not going over it again, google it. But if you don’t own anything, think about it, who the F does? They’re trying to sucker everyone. And after this COVID bs plays out, they will pivot to “climate change’ restrictions to attack us futher. Gary, I already gave you plenty of evidence of all this, and Biden’s handlers already had the Executive Orders prepared and he signed them.
Here, ok? It’s in the news every day, more of this stuff:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267327/Bill-Gates-says-100-synthetic-beef-prevent-climate-change.html
Southbound: Nice hate speech drive-by rant on HD. Take your bigotry elsewhere. Nobody respects your sympathies for anti-white racists, violence, riots, corruption, immorality, sin, extremism, hate etc. I bet you were out on the streets hiding your face and doing violence alongside the scum. You are a collaborator with evil and hate.
“This is exactly what Sabrina wants – No Poors or Minorities in the city”
If anything the past 13 years has taught us is that there is no way to get ahead in America from one’s labor. Only from capital and asset appreciation speculation with the help of the Federal Reserve who debases the currency at every opportunity. Bitcoin is going to the moon as a hedge against this debasement.
What the Fed is doing will work until it doesn’t. And when it doesn’t that’s currency crisis time.
SB,
You are so silly! “far right suburban extremist” hang out at the Applebees at Orland Park Mall! I live in Long Grove, there are no “far right suburban extremists” in my town!
“I was trying to tell everyone this. “You will own nothing and be happy is part of the Great Reset”. Not going over it again, google it.”
I did and found some entertaining video. Not impressed and no evidence presented of a conspiracy as you suggest. But I do think renting makes a lot of sense. I rented for 10 years before buying and half that time I was a realtor. There is a lot to be said of renting. I certainly had fewer headaches. The only benefit to owning is that you are insulated from inflation and you can do what you want with the property.
“But if you don’t own anything, think about it, who the F does?”
I answered that a while back. The companies that you own stock in will own stuff.
“They’re trying to sucker everyone. And after this COVID bs plays out, they will pivot to “climate change’ restrictions to attack us futher.”
Dammit helmethofer, WTF is “they”?
“Gary, I already gave you plenty of evidence of all this, and Biden’s handlers already had the Executive Orders prepared and he signed them.”
You gave me no evidence of anything. I just want to know who “they” are and how they are organized and what evidence you have that they are behind whatever crazy nonsense you believe.
And showing us an article that Bill Gates supports cultured beef proves nothing. It’s a promising idea. If the market demands it it will succeed. If it’s such a bad idea it won’t succeed.
“What the Fed is doing will work until it doesn’t. And when it doesn’t that’s currency crisis time.”
Why do you, HH and Homedelete root against:
1. Chicago
2. Illinois
3. The United States of America
Why are you all doomers?
What happens if it all goes down? You stay in your living room watching Fox News amidst it all and nothing happens to you?
Why would you WANT the greatest democracy the world has ever known to fail? Why would you WISH for a depression (as if the Great Recession wasn’t enough)?
Why do you seek darkness Bob?
Why?
People have been betting against America, its cities and people, since 1776. They’ve all lost.
“I was trying to tell everyone this. “You will own nothing and be happy is part of the Great Reset”.”
He says this with a straight face as the largest generation in US history is buying up every house, townhouse and condo that is available.
He also says this as a whole new generation of stock investors, some as young as 12, now own shares of the world’s greatest companies with zero transaction costs thanks to new apps like Robinhood.
“Fitch Ratings must also be a “bear” for daring to question the housing market.”
More doom and gloom WP?
Biden just extended the forbearance deadline until June.
I guess you’re going to have to wait for the housing market to blow up a little while longer. Meanwhile, the hottest housing market in Chicago in 14 years will keep grinding along.
“Questioning what comes next doesn’t mean you are a bear Sabrina.”
Oh no! (clutches pearls). Kenosha County declined, gasp, 1%, in the middle of winter.
The horror.
It’s over. The bull is over.
Come on WP.
We are in the first innings of a multi-year housing bull market. This is how markets work. They have bulls, and bears, We were in a bear since 2008 and now we’re in a bull. There’s a whole new generation that needs somewhere to live and the home builders haven’t built enough homes to house them all.
So here we are with record low mortgage rates.
Now, I’ve said in the past, that when mortgage rates rise it will cool the market. So I’ll say it again: when mortgage rates rise it will cool the market.
But cool doesn’t mean “sink.” The demographics are our friend. Too many buyers, not enough houses, means a strong market for years. At least until more supply comes on.
One thing we don’t want, is over heating. So a cool down in the housing market later this year would be a good thing. Affordability will be a factor in some markets.
““I don’t want to be financially tied to something, just in case,” said South Shore resident Kelly Williams, 36. “I worry about things like that, sometimes probably more than I should. For now, this feels safe.””
Who can blame her?
There are fantastic rental deals right now. If it’s cheaper to rent than to own, why not rent?
And if you’re not going to live there 10+ years, don’t do it. Transaction costs will eat into your equity.
They keep trying to compare Millennials home ownership rates with GenX and Baby Boomer rates at the same age (like 30) without taking into account that both of the later generations married, and formed families, much younger. Millennials average age for men to marry is 30. What was it for Boomers? 22? 23?
So everything has been pushed back, including home ownership.
Which is why the years 2020-2024 were always going to lead to a bull housing market. Millennials are getting married at ages 28 to 32. And then they form families. That’s when they want to buy a home. And the largest group of Millennials is reaching those key years right on schedule.
If you listen to any of the home builder conference calls from the last few weeks they all say, in agreement, that they are selling over 40% of their homes to first home buyers who are under the age of 40.
That’s Millennials.
And the home builders know the demographic numbers of that group too.
“Are you joking?”
Nope HH. I’m talking about the actual data.
Americans have about $2 trillion more in savings than a year ago. Additionally, they are STILL saving over 10% of their income, a level not seen since the 1980s.
What will they do with all that money? It’s going to be a huge stimulus.
Again, some will spent immediately on big trips when it’s safe to do so. Might not happen until 2022 though (Europe, Australia etc.)
I feel like there will continue to be a LOT of home remodeling.
If you don’t have a 401k, go work for Starbucks. Not only will you be making $15 an hour as of July 1 in Chicago but they also offer a 401k.
Yeah- the economy is going to explode later on this year. There will probably be a lot of pressure on many salaries.
Get the raises while you can.
“Travel to Mexico is not free-flowing. Just go to CDC website and read the restrictions and advisories.”
“Free flowing”? What does that mean?
Sure it is. US doesn’t require any COVID test before going. You DO need one to come back but all the hotels jumped into action immediately and now offer the tests on site.
The new requirements aren’t stopping anyone, if the pictures from the Cancun immigration lines were any indication.
People love the Mexico resorts. The beaches are great and the price is right. It’s a great family vacation.
They’re still opening up more resorts, too, even during the pandemic.
Mexico and the DR have both actually made the family beach vacation very affordable to the middle class, who could not afford Hawaii or even Florida.
“Given that it didn’t blow over I imagine they asked for his resignation.”
Nope. He quit. Issued an entire apology. Go check it out.
Move on WP. The country has bigger things to worry about like getting the vaccines in enough arms to prevent another massive covid outbreak in about 6 weeks.
“FHA charges an upfront mortgage insurance premium that gets rolled into the loan of 1.75% and a monthly MI premium. They changed their rules about three years ago so that MI is permanent regardless of the loan to value. So FHA will will ALWAYS have MI on it for life of the loan.”
Thank you Russ. Yes, that’s what he has is the FHA.
His mortgage insurance is permanent. It’s awful. It’s so much wasted money (to me). You are literally lighting it on fire month after month, possibly for 30 years.
Ugh.
“Dammit helmethofer, WTF is “they”?”
He has no idea Gary.
Lol.
“So here we are with record low mortgage rates.
Now, I’ve said in the past, that when mortgage rates rise it will cool the market. So I’ll say it again: when mortgage rates rise it will cool the market”
Kind of how they are rising now leading to a decline in mortgage applications today….
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/mortgage-demand-falls-further-as-rates-rise-.html
“If you listen to any of the home builder conference calls from the last few weeks they all say, in agreement, that they are selling over 40% of their homes to first home buyers who are under the age of 40.”
Wow 40% it must be booming. 40% of what 10 homes, 100, 1,000, 100,000, 1,000,000….. You need context behind the 40% number. If the percentage of homes bought by one generation is increasing but total home sales are flat or down when compared to the prior period that’s not a bull market.
If Millennials are more pessimistic now then they were a year ago in their prospects of ever buying a home that takes some wind out of your thesis.
“If you listen to any of the home builder conference calls from the last few weeks they all say, in agreement, that they are selling over 40% of their homes to first home buyers who are under the age of 40.”
Wow 40% it must be booming. 40% of what 10 homes, 100, 1,000, 100,000, 1,000,000….. You need context behind the 40% number. If the percentage of homes bought by one generation is increasing but total home sales are flat or down when compared to the prior period that’s not a bull market.
If Millennials are more pessimistic now then they were a year ago in their prospects of ever buying a home that takes some wind out of your thesis.
More shill blather, as theres no reference point (A Sabrina specialty)
Additionally, how does this compare to previous years?
” a whole new generation of stock investors, some as young as 12, now own shares of the world’s greatest companies with zero transaction costs thanks to new apps like Robinhood.”
Sabrina, nothing is for free. Robinhood sells its orderflow to be filled by Citadel, which frontruns it with HFT. The kids are being fleeced by the microsecond and it adds up for hedgies.
“Why do you, HH and Homedelete root against:
1. Chicago
2. Illinois
3. The United States of America”
WTF? Rooting against Pritzker, Durbin, Madigan, Lightfoot, Foxx and senile Biden and his anti-white racist Christian-hating ilk is rooting FOR America. HD and I know INTUITIVELY what the Founding Fathers wanted because we are the same demographic and DNA as them. Just as I cannot claim to be the world’s best Jew or Chinese, it’s laughable that anti-white racists and misandrist hags etc. can claim to lead America on the principles as it was founded upon. The analogy is that I am qualified to be the PM of Israel cause anyone can do it.
So. When you are hiking, and you veer off the course/path, the best idea it to retreat back to where you went wrong, then get back on the correct path and move forward. The situation we have in 21st century is that America-haters want to take us off the correct path, and deliberately take us down the wrong path, and continue to the cliff because they hate America and the Western Civ world they didn’t create.
So, it’s people like you and Gary and shitlib morons who constantly block healthy progress back to the correct path, and support those (aforementioned in the list above) who hate and will take us over the cliff because it’s THEY who hate Chicago, Illinois and the USA and the Founding Fathers.
The CTU folks never could afford Gucci on Mich Ave., so out of jealousy they celebrated when it was robbed and looted. Why did they care? Haters are jealous of a healthy America and are happier destroying it. Cause if they didn’t build it, they don’t want anyone to have it!
Make America Great Again is a legitimate goal. But like the 80/20 rule: 20% of the real estate brokers make 80% of the commissions, the 80% of this country hate the 20% that founded it and abide by its principles. 80/20 democracy is mob rule at this point, and diversity is certainly a negative not a strength.
” HD and I know INTUITIVELY what the Founding Fathers wanted because we are the same demographic and DNA as them.”
For the 100th time, you do not speak for me. I am not on your side.
The biggest losers in the Milken rankings of “powerhouse cities” which measures YoY job creation, wage growth, and innovation include Elgin, Illinois and Lake County/Kenosha County. Sounds promising for the Chicagoland area.
https://www.axios.com/top-performing-cities-provo-utah-san-francisco-6ec4d362-1912-4059-acd2-14d8984656fa.html
“High schoolers are all back to school in the suburbs. Have been for weeks. They are doing hybrid though.”
Where do you come up with this stuff. From the Illinois State Board of Education website there are still more students learning from home then there are hybrid and in-person combined. As we all know K – 8 is supposed to be the “easy” part in re-opening with high school harder due to science. Facts matter.
https://isp.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/fceeacb37da04de4b237ed941dd7d5c4
“The situation we have in 21st century is that America-haters want to take us off the correct path, and deliberately take us down the wrong path, and continue to the cliff because they hate America and the Western Civ world they didn’t create.”
So you would be one of these America-haters, right? That’s sure what it sounds like. And whose idea of the “correct path” should we follow?
“Make America Great Again is a legitimate goal.”
Making America great is a legitimate goal. Only problem is that the people who talk the most about it don’t have a clue how to make it happen. And the whole “again” part is based on the false premise that we are somehow less great today than we were at some point in the past. Hell, these clowns don’t even know how to measure greatness.
“ The biggest losers in the Milken rankings of “powerhouse cities” which measures YoY job creation, wage growth, and innovation include Elgin, Illinois and Lake County/Kenosha County. Sounds promising for the Chicagoland area.”
The biggest winners in the Sabrina (aka SHILL) rankings is Chicago. It scored 47 points out of a possible 20.
Very HAWT!
“For the 100th time, you do not speak for me. I am not on your side.”
Hey douche bag, it was Sabrina that lumped your sorry ass with me. You are most certainly not Founding Father material.
hd posted “…you do not speak for me. I am not on your side.”
Pretend all you want to be on a different side than HH’s. Of course hh speaks for hd who has the same dna/base beliefs as HH
Like hh imo hd’s also a racist suburban party over country facist-supporting right wing extremist. But I’m guessing hd’s got at least one more redeeming quality than HH. Let’s see – hd moved to Pk Ridge, the closest non-diverse ‘burb to downtown, despite its 6% SE Asian immigrant population hd still despises after they out performed him in HS & college.
What the hell is your problem southbound? You’re a creepy, very creepy dude. You pop up out of nowhere and say crazy stuff, like you read this blog just to attack me for some unknown reason. It’s really creepy, now I’m worried you’re going to go all peeping tom in my windows. I have a 5,000 sq ft house, on an acre lot in Long Grove, so there’s *a lot* of windows. Don’t worry though, I have lots of exterior cameras to keep watch for creeps like you.
“Hey douche bag, it was Sabrina that lumped your sorry ass with me. You are most certainly not Founding Father material.”
Now I get it, southbound and HH are the SAME PERSON! It’ sounds crazy but they both show up at the same time, throw snide remarks at each other before focusing their attention on me. Helmuthoffer and Southbound are both the same person posting.
“the 80% of this country hate the 20% that founded it”
Who “founded” it HH?
The English? The Spanish? The French?
Don’t you mean- who “colonized” it as it was already here and thriving for hundreds of years by the Native Americans.
The Spanish were here first among the colonizers. Do we go with them?
“40% of what 10 homes, 100, 1,000, 100,000, 1,000,000….. ”
Again, the publicly traded home builders who have conference calls every quarter are building THOUSANDS of homes.
Since you can’t do the math JohnnyU, I’ll fill you in.
That means that they are selling thousands of homes to Millennials in all the hot cities.
The home builders have record backlogs so how does it compare to their previous years?
It’s the best EVER.
And because they are the largest generation in US history, it makes perfect sense that home demand would soar in the years when they have family formation.
Yawn.
So tired of arguing with people who don’t understand basic demographics and supply/demand economics.
“If the percentage of homes bought by one generation is increasing but total home sales are flat or down when compared to the prior period that’s not a bull market.”
In Chicago, home sales are at 14 year highs.
Data doesn’t lie but keep on, keeping on WP.
“In Chicago, home sales are at 14 year highs.
Data doesn’t lie…”
Here’s Redfin’s calendar year totals for Home Sales:
———————————————————
Chicago MSA
2013 = 95,622
2014 = 90,242
2015 = 96,775
2016 = 100,464
2017 = 102,218
2018 = 98,440
2019 = 95,033
2020 = 100,566
———————————————————
Cook County
2013 = 67,629
2014 = 62,585
2015 = 66,663
2016 = 68,835
2017 = 70,119
2018 = 67,368
2019 = 64,850
2020 = 66,872
———————————————————
City of Chicago
2013 = 32,245
2014 = 30,204
2015 = 32,538
2016 = 33,211
2017 = 34,091
2018 = 32,711
2019 = 31,363
2020 = 30,711
Data doesn’t lie but apparently Sabrina does.
It’s called trust but verify with shills Sabrina, because shills have an economic interest in furthering a particular narrative. And this squarely puts you in that column. Is this Kelly L?
“That means that they are selling thousands of homes to Millennials in all the hot cities.”
Sometimes the shill running the narrative just makes you laugh out loud. Buy now or be priced out of the “hot cities” forever, folks. You will NEVER get a spot at the lunch table with the “in-crowd” that are those in the “hot cities” that own real estate.
Sabrina does real estate in the HAWT cities get “snapped up”? 😀
People have figured out in the past year more than ever there really shouldn’t be a thing as “hot cities”. It’s called getting taxed to death to subsidize the dredges of society and public sector unions. But oh no Sabrina is the authoritative source on who actually even lives in Chicago and she can name drop retail chains that are around which El stops to prove it.
https://milkeninstitute.org/sites/default/files/reports-pdf/Best-Performing-Cities-2021.pdf
Chicago ranked #152 out of 200, behind Little Rock, AK and a whole bunch of other dumpy cities like St. Louis and Dayton, OH
lol
yeah sabrina, Reno totally sucks, we plummeted from #4 to #18 and nothing has changed here from when you visited 25 years ago
“The home builders have record backlogs so how does it compare to their previous years?”
Let’s see what the National Association of Home Builders has to say. From the Tribune Article today:
“The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) estimates that median family income for 2020 fell to $72,900 from $75,500 in 2019”
Family income down. Bullish
“As a result of that pay cut, it’s getting harder for Americans to buy homes. Just 58.3% of homes sold during the fourth quarter were affordable to families earning a typical income. That was unchanged from the third quarter but down from 63.2% in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index.”
Income down affordability down. Bullish
“The affordability study shows nationwide home prices have spiked in recent months.”
Income down affordability down prices up. Bullish
“While falling mortgage rates created tail winds for affordability, there are two major headwinds — layoffs and rising home prices.”
Income down affordability down prices up projecting more layoffs. Bullish
“inventory remained lean due to supply chain issues and the COVID-19 pandemic”
Sounds like the best market EVER per the homebuilders.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/real-estate/luxury-real-estate/sns-liststory-most-least-affordable-mertros-20210212-vlxvsr7jonb47m5u7afgyhybba-list.html
Lets look at Rodkin in Crains this morning.
“selling in half the time or less what it took last year, in about 30 suburbs and nine of the city’s 77 neighborhoods.”
WOW they are flying off the shelves in Chicago. Selling faster in a whole 9 of 77 neighborhoods (or 11%) compared to last year. Holy bemoly that is absolutely hot.
The headline is somewhat misleading. Going from 100+ days in Downers Grove to 53 days is obviously an improvement but just shows you how awful the market was pre-covid. 53 days sounds like a normal market to me not something to thump your chest about.
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/residential-real-estate/homes-are-selling-lot-faster-year
“But I feel these attacks against Yellen are more than that. It’s plain and simple misogyny. Again. Just like with Clinton.”
Sabrina you may have gotten me here. All of this time we were pointing out Yellen and her conflicts of interest and how the FED rigs the entire game against the little guy.
I HAVE NEWS FOR YOU Ben Freaking Bernanke is a Special Advisor at Citadel. Listed on their website. Like NO WAY. How has this not been reported in the whole GameStop issue. You have to ask who is regulating who at this point.
Ken Griffin runs the universe. That is what i’ve quickly learned over the past 2 – 3 years. I thank him for the failure of the “unfair tax” but man this person runs the world.
Also, do you think Pritzker has a bag of popcorn watching the hearing as a very small conciliatory prize? I wonder if he was able to back-channel any pointed questions to make him look bad? Do you think Griffin went to Rauner’s Palm Beach house to get some advice or does Griffin realize how awful his hand picked Gov was for the State and actually made the politics that he was trying to change more entrenched?
https://www.citadel.com/leadership/dr-ben-s-bernanke/
“Also, do you think Pritzker has a bag of popcorn watching the hearing as a very small conciliatory prize?”
If by bag of popcorn your mean 50lbs of M&Ms, Butterfingers, SnoBalls, Ho-Hos & Zingers – yeah that fat fuck is stuffing his face figuring out how to not get busted going to WI or FL. Other than that, he’s oblivious to anything else
Also this gem just popped up in the Tribune – U.S. cities where homes are selling the fastest. The top 15 US cities hottest markets have days to sell from 35 – 47. Chicago is at 75 days as of January 2021 per the Crain’s article I posted above.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/real-estate/luxury-real-estate/sns-us-cities-fastest-selling-homes-20210212-ondwznetjfcfxizbdvjbdptwim-photogallery.html
“The home builders have record backlogs so how does it compare to their previous years?
It’s the best EVER.”
Looks like that “record backlog” is in part from supply constraints and rising input prices like lumber. Per CNBC from actual earnings calls with homebuilders….
“Executives of some of the nation’s largest public homebuilders have noted on earnings calls that they have slowed production, hoping to wait out some of these higher costs.”
“They are therefore running at a higher capacity than normal to take advantage of these prices, which can lead to an oversupply.”
Oh so the home builders are delaying some builds (backlog) anticipating lower lumber prices in the near future helping their returns…..
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/18/lumber-prices-top-1000-as-single-family-housing-starts-drop-12percent.html
“Looks like that “record backlog” is in part from supply constraints and rising input prices like lumber.”
No, the record backlog is based on contracts. They are not delaying the building. They literally have record contracts.
But they are withholding listing some sites in some of the hottest markets so they aren’t overwhelmed. So, they discussed, putting just 3 homes up for sale in any given week in a development in, say, Boise, and when those sold (within days) NOT bringing any more on that week.
It also allows them to raise prices more aggressively.
Lumber prices only recently spiked again after declining in the fall. Most likely due to the return of COVID shutdowns in Canada.
One of the home builders also said that the rise was in the type of lumber they don’t use to build with. So, yeah, there’s that.
WP- the home builders have said over and over that they’ve never seen anything like this. Not even during the housing bubble, which, at least behaved like the other cycles (spring buying season was hot, fall and winter not so much.)
In 2020, there was no winter season. Demand continued right through the fall and into the holidays. Some years, they actually close their sales centers in December. Not this year (unless it was in one of the markets they were intentionally trying to slow.)
There’s real danger of overheating. That’s why it would be helpful to have the mortgage rates rise a half a point or 75 basis points.
But we’ll see.
“Chicago is at 75 days as of January 2021 per the Crain’s article I posted above.”
I post the average market times every month in the Market Condition updates WP. It’s not a secret. The Illinois Association of Realtors puts it out.
No way it’s been 75 days.
But they also probably clear the tracker if you re-list so it likely isn’t accurate.
All I know is that I’m having a real hard time finding properties to crib about again because they are selling too quickly for me to post about them.
I’ll have to stick with the $10 million properties. Those always take longer.
“selling in half the time or less what it took last year, in about 30 suburbs and nine of the city’s 77 neighborhoods.”
Yes, it’s a very hot spring market.
There’s still NO inventory. Everyone is looking at the handful of homes that comes on every day. I’m sure there are bidding wars in some neighborhoods and suburbs.
It’s way too low.
But we’re not alone.
Other cities the same: St Louis, Milwaukee, Columbus etc.
“Sounds like the best market EVER per the homebuilders.”
Um…yeah WP.
Home builders WANT low inventory. Just like airlines WANT low capacity.
Supply and demand. You can charge more.
A lot of them have been asked in recent weeks about affordability problems in some markets and they’ve said they are shrinking the homes to keep them around the same price and they’re still selling. So instead of selling the 1900 square foot house for $325,000 they are selling the 1700 square foot house for $325,000.
They mostly are keeping calm about this bull market, though. They aren’t spending like drunken soldiers on land…yet. But they likely won’t be able to help themselves by 2022 and 2023.
“yeah sabrina, Reno totally sucks, we plummeted from #4 to #18 and nothing has changed here from when you visited 25 years ago”
I’ve never been to Reno sonies.
I’m sure it’s a pleasant secondary city. I know a lot of people like to retire there because you’re close to Tahoe and you don’t pay income tax.
But if you’re going places in your career, it’s not really the place you want to end up.
“Sabrina does real estate in the HAWT cities get “snapped up”?”
Yes. They cannot build fast enough in the west and the Southeast. Atlanta metro, Boise, all of Florida.
Hot, hot, hot.
But there’s also significant strength in secondary cities like St Louis, Tulsa, Indianapolis.
Existing home inventory is under 3 months nationwide. That means there’s no competition for new home builders. Many who want a home right now, have to buy existing because there is a 6 to 12 month lead time for new construction.
Chicago hasn’t been hot for years, for a number of reasons. We’ve been building thousands of new apartments in the city and the suburbs though. It will be interesting to see if some of those convert to condos over the next few years.
But given that single family home inventory in Chicago was at 1.8 months in January, unless that rises dramatically, Chicago single family home prices are going to move higher this year.
There are more condos, but sales have perked up in that category now too. In some neighborhoods, inventory of condos is low. Prices will rise there too.
Downtown still has the most inventory. It’s the only area that is slow. But when the pandemic eases over the summer, the city is going to burst to life and, yeah, people will be buying and moving downtown again.
“Data doesn’t lie but apparently Sabrina does.”
Bob, where’s your data?
I have mine. Every month. New data coming early next week.
How about you?
We’re going to see another strong month in January (per Gary’s data which he already shared with us). Double digit sales boost in condos in January.
Data doesn’t lie.
I didn’t say anything about the full year wojo.
Data doesn’t lie. December sales were at a 14 year high.
January will be the same.
Probably February after that.
And on and on because the new bull market has begun.
And during a global pandemic no less.
Sizzle.
Whoo-hoo. Can’t wait to see what gets built, what apartment buildings convert to condos, and what happens to prices.
“Data doesn’t lie. December sales were at a 14 year high.”
Funny how shills never account for the bad times, like when basically nothing moved in spring and summer and lack the intellect or honesty to admit that the lack of sales just got pushed back
“No way it’s been 75 days.
But they also probably clear the tracker if you re-list so it likely isn’t accurate.”
The average for closings in December was in fact 76 days. That’s based on original list date for the property. The number reported by IAR only looks at the last listing – probably because it sounds better.
Sorry, I had a post on the January numbers all ready to go but the automatic posting feature malfunctioned.
It happens sometimes.
It will post tomorrow (hopefully.)