Crib Chatter

Does anyone care about what the housing market was doing before the coronavirus hit the US?

It seems like another world now.

But it’s good to have the data.

It’s not surprising that Chicago home sales were up year-over-year in February. From the Illinois Association of Realtors:

The city of Chicago saw year-over-year home sales increase 1.6 percent with 1,472 sales in February, compared to 1,449 a year ago. The median price of a home in the city of Chicago in February was $290,000 up 6.4 percent compared to February 2019 when it was $272,500.

Here is the sales data for February going back to 1997 (courtesy of G):

• 1997: 881 sales
• 1998: 991
• 2000: 1383
• 2001: 1151
• 2002: 1677
• 2003: 1566
• 2004: 1814
• 2005: 2228
• 2006: 1855
• 2007: 1703
• 2008: 1454
• 2009: 870
• 2010: 1257
• 2011: 1092
• 2012: 1250
• 2013: 1411
• 2014: 1361
• 2015: 1497
• 2016: 1567
• 2017: 1529
• 2018: 1535
• 2019: 1449
• 2020: 1472

Here is the Median Price Data also going back to 1997 (thanks G!):

• 1997: $117,000
• 1998: $132,000
• 1999: $143,750
• 2000: $161,500
• 2001: $180,200
• 2002: $212,000
• 2003: $215,000
• 2004: $229,900
• 2005: $268,900
• 2006: $267,500
• 2007: $270,000
• 2008: $290,000
• 2009: $218,125 (with 31% being REO/Short Sales)
• 2010: $176,000 (with 46% being REO/Short Sales)
• 2011: $150,250 (with 50% being REO/Short Sales)
• 2012: $140,300 (with 52% being REO/Short Sales)
• 2013: $158,000
• 2014 $175,000
• 2015: $212,000
• 2016: $236,000
• 2017: $246,000
• 2018: $272,000
• 2019: $272,500
• 2020: $290,000

“As we ease into what should have been the beginning of the spring home buying and selling season, the data reflects that consumers are being deliberate in their spending,” said Maurice Hampton, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and owner of Centered International Realty. “Median sales are on the up while inventory and days on the market both declined, showing that buyers are active in their search.”

30 year fixed mortgage rates fell to an average of 3.47% from 3.6% in January and were down from 4.37% in February 2019.

The experts admitted that the forecasts were created before the coronavirus really started to impact.

“The forecasts were prepared using data prior to the stock market meltdown and the increased concern about the impact of the COVID-19 virus pandemic,” said Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the University of Illinois. “Absent these events, the housing market would have continued its slow but steady rebound. In times past, consumers have become very risk averse when faced with uncertainties about the economy. The difference with the current crisis is the limitations on interactions and fear of infection. This may prove to have a very significant impact on the housing market over the next two to three months.”

Is it just a coincidence that the median high hit $290,000, which was the same in February 2008 before that recession hit?

What will the coronavirus do to sales in the coming months?

Defer them?

Or will many deals fall through as the mortgage lenders tighten the loan requirements?

Already, those who did loans to the riskiest buyers have already started laying off mortgage brokers as there is just NO lending in that market at all.

Illinois home prices and sales head higher in February [Illinois Association of Realtors, Press Release, March 20, 2020]