Market Conditions: G Is Vindicated! IAR To Restate Monthly Median Price and Volumes Data
As many of you know, the Illinois Association of Realtors provides both sales volumes and the median Chicago single family home and the median condo sales prices every month.
Many regular readers of Crib Chatter know that there appeared to be some funny business with the Chicago monthly median sales prices cited by the Illinois Association of Realtors.
For several months, “G” has been posting in the comments that the data has been wrong. Not only was it too high- it was WAY too high.
Here were the May monthly median sales price numbers as provided by IAR:
Median price data over the last four years:
- May 2008: $319,500
- May 2009: $225,000
- May 2010: $230,000
- May 2011: $238,450
Here were the median condo prices over the prior two years:
- May 2010: $271,150
- May 2011: $299,000
Here was G’s response to those numbers:
“We’ve discussed this median price data before. It’s totally meaningless. All it means is that people are buying better condos than they did last year. It does NOT reflect price movement, which is still negative.”
I agree about the lack of usefulness of the median. However, the actual median for Chicago in May was $190,000. My pointing this out does not mean it is useful, just inaccurate based on the actual MLS sales. Gary, why don’t you check the median for yourself?
Chicago May MLS closed and median:
2008 2,174 $319,243
2009 1,579 $225,000
2010 2,111 $230,000
2011 1,702 $190,000Condos only
2010 1,291 $270,000
2011 1,020 $249,762
Mary Ellen Podmolik, the Tribune’s Real Estate reporter, “acting on a tip” (has she been reading our monthly discussion of this discrepancy on Crib Chatter, perhaps?) now confirms with IAR that the data WAS wrong.
“It’s not just May,” said Mary Schaefer, a spokeswoman for the Illinois Association of Realtorsadding that the mistakes appear to go back at least through January. “We’re trying to figure out where the bug occurred. We should have caught it. We pride ourselves on having accurate data. We want to make sure there is 100 percent clean data.”
The size of the Realtors’ errors is statistically significant, at least based on the May median price for condo sales within the city. In its official report that has now been discredited, the trade group previously said that the median price of an existing condo sold in Chicago in May was $299,000, compared with $271,150 recorded in May 2010. In fact, the median price was $243,000, compared to a year-ago price of $265,000, according to data from Midwest Real Estate Data LLC, the multiple listing service for the Chicago area.
Does it matter what numbers the IAR put out in their press release?
Do buyers (and sellers) care about medians?
“Whatever they’re putting out should be correct,” said Eric Rojas, a Prudential Rubloff real estate agent in Chicago. “There’s no doubt about it. I know that people watch the news and read the papers and they’re confused by the data. When we talk to buyers and sellers, they really don’t know what’s going on.”
Still, agents say they themselves pay little attention to the numbers that are issued by real estate trade groups, whether they are local, state or national.
“Median price in the market does not matter at all,” said Stacy Karel, an @Properties agent. “It’s building or block specific. It’s a micromarket. You can’t compare east of Western (Avenue) with west of Western.” When Rojas has pulled data directly from Midwest Real Estate Data, it shows that even the best city neighborhoods remain depressed.
For instance, the median price of two-bedroom, two-bathroom condos in Chicago’s Lakeview neighborhood during the first six months of the year was down 10.5 percent on a year-over-year basis, from $380,000 in the first half of 2010 to $340,000 this year, according to information Rojas pulled from Midwest Real Estate Data.
Was it a conspiracy by IAR to keep the median sales data elevated?
The IAR seems to be blaming the MRED and the MRED appears to be blaming IAR.
Remember, G (and other agents) apparently easily generate the data themselves directly off the system.
Why couldn’t IAR do the same?
Schaefer said the group does not think any fraud is being committed. “There’s no playing with the numbers, this is technical,” she said. “It’s how the system is reading the data.”
Local multiple listing services like Midwest Real Estate Data are continually updated, and data on listings, sales and prices are fed into it by agents as they do business. Midwest Real Estate Data gathers the month’s data, generally five to seven days after the end of a month, and generates data files for U.S. House Stats, which is owned by the national association. State associations like the Illinois group generate reports based on those numbers.
Midwest Real Estate Data doesn’t think the problem is on its end.
“MRED uses a regular procedure for sending statistics to the Illinois Association of Realtors,” according to an emailed statement from CEO Russ Bergeron. “That procedure has not changed. We are completely confident in the numbers we gave to (the Illinois Association of Realtors) and we’re working with them to help them identify how this discrepancy on their end occurred.”
Congrats to G who kept this issue alive for months when no one else seemed to care.
Statistics are only as good as the data.
Where does this leave the Chicago real estate market now? (and when will we get the revised numbers?)
The IAR’s press release on this “technical error” also seems to indicate there could be inaccurate data regarding sales volumes as well. Stay tuned.
Realty trade group overreported Chicago real estate prices [Chicago Tribune, Mary Ellen Podmolik, July 11, 2011]
Illinois Association of Realtors Statement Regarding City of Chicago Housing Data [Press Release, July 11, 2011]
See our prior discussion of the May 2011 Monthly Housing data here.
yes the false data matters. It gives you completely wrong image of the market. IAR’s data makes you think the market as whole is recovering while in fact it is declining. I don’t buy that this is an innocent mistake. I mean it is an order statistic. How hard is that to calculate!
G, thank you for your work. You’re “keeping them honest”.
IAR is a shame. I have no respect for that organization. They are cooking the books like Enron did with their accounting. Someone needs to be held liable with their job.
“Was it a conspiracy by IAR to keep the median sales data elevated?”
Perhaps. Though I doubt there’s any crime to which it was conspiring. Might be a matter for the FTC? Who knows. No authorities seem interested in addressing (i) the unlicensed practice of law by real estate brokers and (ii) the frequent breach of fiduciary duties by real estate brokers, so I don’t see any authority leading the charge against this group over this scandal.
“Do buyers (and sellers) care about medians?”
They certainly should not. Median pricing derived from a list of comps? Sure. But not medians derived from “Chicago area housing” or “Chicago area condos only.”
Anyone who makes a decision of whether or not to buy a house based on median prices in Chicago is a complete and total moron. People who are interested in buying property should buy based on:
1. personal need/desire
2. personal financial situation
In addition, the median or average price “data” doesn’t mean a god damn thing!! Remember if you are factoring in gold coast condos with foreclosed properties in Englewood. This doesn’t help ANYONE make any type of good decision (whether you are buying in Englewood or the gold coast). Seriously, how can you guys (like G) put so much emphasis on these numbers?!!! When I look at the rolling averages for places like Oak Brook, Kenilworth and Hinsdale, it is ridiculous. The average price for a home in Oak Brook is consistently around 620k – now look in the MLS and see if you can find anything livable for that price – what gives? – it is the AVERAGE price and they factor in condos. Data is only as good as the people analyzing it – and there are a lot of complete idiots out there!!!
if it’s a big data set, and you filter the noise a bit, to say it is ‘meaningless’ is silliness. Just need to take from it what you can.
Clio, summary stats are useful no matter how much you argue against them. of course you are right that RE is localized so even among houses on the same division, there can be massive price differences based on their features, yet in a strong market summary stats are higher than a low market. this correlation always holds. therefore, it is reasonable for people to be cautious when stats are low as it can be an indicator of a troubled market.
gringo, here’s an interesting post for you:
“Credit-card debt may threaten Brazil’s boom”
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gzke9WpHYtO5eC_29cNzQlr9Lsig
well if stats were really important i guess someone would have been more careful with their cell refrences at the IAR. Ooops, ‘but steps have been taken care of to resolve it’s further occurance’. Funny how accidents seem to always bias one way.
Clio: oh, I see. Because the numbers they were publishing are meaningless, we shouldn’t care that the IAR has been lying to us for months. Is that about right?
“You caught me, sir. This 2001 Saturn wasn’t actually the safest car built that year. But those numbers include all sorts of bad drivers and don’t reflect the experience you’d have. You look like an upstanding driver, sir. I imagine a gentleman with your capabilities would be quite safe behind this wheel. Just sign right here and you’ll be the proud owner of the ‘safest car for you.'”
clio:
$243,000 != $271,150 != $300,000.
What does these summary stats tell us about SFHs in Oak Brook? They tell me that your house isn’t worth as much as you think it is and psychologically you’re incapable of marking to market as your ego is tied up with your net worth.
‘I half expected a quote from “G” when I started reading the front page of the trib, but they only mention an “anonymous tip”. kind of cool to watch this all unfold. nice work G
I seriously doubt (and I think G will back me up on this) that the volume numbers will change. Both G and I tie out to their volume numbers.
As for whether or not this was part of some grand conspiracy to dupe the public…I think it’s more likely that this was the result of grand ineptitude. Let’s not forget that realtors are not the sharpest knives in the drawer.
“I think it’s more likely that this was the result of grand ineptitude”
More than likely. It takes a bunch of cribchatter ultra-bears and talks of a smoking man in a room/grandoise conspiracy. But in reality I bet it hardly pulled any sales forward, if at all.
I agree it probably didnt help sales. But I’m not convinced it was just ineptitude. when you listen to all the bs the NAR has been spouting for years in spite of the facts, it’s not hard to imagine the IAR cooking the books on purpose thinking it would help sales
“Median price in the market does not matter at all,” said Stacy Karel, an @Properties agent. “It’s building or block specific. It’s a micromarket. You can’t compare east of Western (Avenue) with west of Western.”
This statement says it all. Average data over a large metro area is of no use to individual buyers and sellers. Do your own research on a block by block basis and compare it with your agents.
G,
for the record i never doubted your almighty access database and your excel shortcut skills. you are a master and i am the young grasshopper.
this is my fav quote it doesnt get any better than this….
….“Median price in the market does not matter at all,” said Stacy Karel, an @Properties agent. “It’s building or block specific. It’s a micromarket. You can’t compare east of Western (Avenue) with west of Western.”….
…would love to have her for an agent.
P.S. anyone else having fun imaging G reading the IAR retraction?
The press releases that IAR puts out are important because the Tribune, the Sun-Times and Crain’s use them for their headlines.
So there is a big difference when the headline says:
“Chicago median condo prices up 10% from last May; 4th straight month of increasing prices”
Compared to:
“Chicago median condo prices slid another 7.8% in May as volumes dried up”
Which one are you going to respond to as a buyer (or a seller?)
And yes- people DO react to headlines. It indicates market psychology.
Why do you think the IAR spins even the bad numbers?
I don’t believe it was a simple mistake. It isn’t like calculating the median is some higher level of theoretical math. Given the numbers are supposedly from one source for a given time period, the results should be easy to duplicate by anyone.
According to G’s data in the post on May’s market conditions- it looks like the sales prices started diverging from the “real” data in October 2010.
That’s just when the housing market really started to contract again.
Sorry- it started diverging in November 2010.
Here’s G’s stats:
Here’s the monthly median comparison between IAR and my mls numbers:
Jul 2010 IAR $196,500 G $196,500
Aug 2010 IAR $200,000 G $200,000
Sep 2010 IAR $180,000 G $180,000
Oct 2010 IAR $183,000 G $183,000
Nov 2010 IAR $206,000 G $180,000
Dec 2010 IAR $199,250 G $167,250
Jan 2011 IAR $170,000 G $149,500
Feb 2011 IAR $177,500 G $150,000
Mar 2011 IAR $191,000 G $163,400
Apr 2011 IAR $205,500 G $169,000
May 2011 IAR $238,450 G $190,000
There is no way an organization like this is going to intentionally skew the numbers. First, they would have to know that eventually it would come to light. Second, it would require too many people being complicit. Think of all the low level analysts and mid-level managers that would have to be silenced.
You’d think that someone with some level of competence would be required to review the data. I agree, this data drives the headlines, which does affect the mindset of the middle of the road buyer in some way, even if only by 1%. It’s a factor in the buying decision. News of increasing prices isn’t going to a scare a potential buyer away. Now that there were errors, the whole process needs to be revamped and reviewed by a 3rd party otherwise it will be difficult to ever trust the data again.
I think the statistics have some value. They can give an overview of the climate of the market when compared year over year.
On the other hand, I usually take statistics with a grain of salt since the entities behind the statistics have their own motives and can easily tweak the data in their favor. It doesn’t even take a blatant lie/mistake like the one illustrated here for the statistics to be manipulated.
Given how easy it is to favorably spin even the worst statistics, I am guessing a blatant lie such as this one most likely started as a mistake. My guess is that, someone made a mistake and since the numbers were favorable to the IAR, no one bothered to double check.
“I mean it is an order statistic.”
Not necessarily.
“I’m not convinced it was just ineptitude. when you listen to all the bs the NAR has been spouting for years in spite of the facts, it’s not hard to imagine the IAR cooking the books on purpose thinking it would help sales”
I’d lean toward some combination of ineptitude and lack of incentives to find errors that worked in their favor. The way a real organization would juke the numbers is to come up with a different methodology that could be skewed in their favor. E.g., some sort of weighted median where fixed weights are assigned to sales of different categories of properties. Done properly, this might have some value (at least in absence of better data/statistics) and would probably not show what the IAR would like to show for recent trends. But once you have a methodology like this, you can screw with it in all kinds of ways to get results you prefer. I don’t think the IAR has the capacity to do something like this, the NAR might.
This obviously isn’t a mistake. This organization is typical for them and their industry. Make it sound like housing is a great investment so they can rake in fees. I was going to buy but I am about to rent until prices go down enough to justify their racket.
The fact that the error repeated itself over several months means that they have a horrible process. I don’t think you can call it an error if no one is reviewing the data. It’s not like the error went the wrong way.
““I mean it is an order statistic.”
Not necessarily.”
what?
@ DZ: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_statistic
Miumiu and DZ, are you guys statisticians?
“The way a real organization would juke the numbers is to come up with a different methodology”
And if they continue calling that a median it’s still a lie. There’s no room for interpretation here, a median is a median and nothing else. I have a hard time believing such a simple thing was accidentally screwed up. I would imagine there’s several layers of people checking this before it gets send out in a press release. No way can you miss that.
And of course the numbers were used by the media to hype up the market, that too doesn’t help their whole innocent mistake angle.
““I mean it is an order statistic.”
Not necessarily.”
“what?”
I (honestly) can’t tell if you are agreeing with me or not, but read the wiki entry you linked to. Yes, it’s a nit (I tend to nitpick when people incorrectly use technical terms that I understand). And yes people will commonly refer to medians as an order statistic.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_statistic
“The sample median may or may not be an order statistic, since there is a single middle value only when the number n of observations is odd. More precisely, if n = 2m + 1 for some m, then the sample median is X(m + 1) and so is an order statistic. On the other hand, when n is even, n = 2m and there are two middle values, X(m) and X(m + 1), and the sample median is some function of the two (usually the average) and hence not an order statistic.”
“are you guys statisticians?”
I’m not. This discussion is not very advanced for people who’ve taken a little stats (or the like).
My agent told me something strange the other day that when appraising condos in the building the lowest comp is thrown out and then the appraisal is done. That seems pretty shady too especially in such a low-volume sale market. I mean the prices change ever quarter in such a deep declining environment and condos in the same micro-location take way longer to sell so it just seems like a strange practice.
The only way I can see how this could have been screwed up unintentionally is if there was a problem with the data query itself. However, you would think they would have systems in place to double check the numbers before releasing to the media.
“I would imagine there’s several layers of people checking this before it gets send out in a press release.”
“However, you would think they would have systems in place to double check the numbers before releasing to the media.”
Serious question. How big is the IAR office? How many full time staff?
I thought this might be what you mean but could not believe you’d care about such a nit pick : ) In fact every statistician I know uses the term so not surprised you are not one DZ.
I am not a statistician but pretty close : )
actuary?
I think informed people stopped believing in the credibility of any *AR numbers or metrics after David Lereah’s antics a few years back.
Besides some of the shining stars on this site: Gary L, G (who I didn’t realize until today was an agent) and a very select few others, my opinion is that the profession is made up of people who would be better off as hairdressers, retail clerks and dog walkers. I just don’t see much value that any provide to the process that is not available to the informed buyer.
“This discussion is not very advanced for people who’ve taken a little stats (or the like).”
Doesn’t seem all that advanced but it seems you enjoy to discuss when the topic comes up.
Miumiu, that isn’t true. The agent may throw out the comp for their own comparative market analysis, but I assure you that actual appraisals completed for the lender are going to take that low comp into consideration unless there has been a significant passing of time to where that comp is no longer consider valid (i.e., like six months and in some cases, the appraiser may still use it).
A*Man, are you referring to this?
“Remember, G (and other agents) apparently easily generate the data themselves directly off the system.”
I thought G just works in some sort of position where he has access to the data…not sure what that specifically is though. Isn’t Sabrina just saying that G, and those with direct MLS access, can easily export and analyze the data?
“Anyone who makes a decision of whether or not to buy a house based on median prices in Chicago is a complete and total moron. People who are interested in buying property should buy based on:
1. personal need/desire
2. personal financial situation”
It is VERY important, in this post crash period, to consider Chicago’s median home price when deciding whether or not to purchase. Many people are still seeking to purchase their ‘move up’ home with profits made from their starter home when in fact they will end up being stuck with two mortgages…then foreclosure. Only a very few households are able to juggle two mortgages as evidenced by the many foreclosures still popping up.
While this might not hold true in NYC, it is a fact of life in Chicago.
I have to agree with Bob’s analysis of why clio continues to push against the importance of these numbers….it’s all about the ego!
Sorry clio.
The IAR makes money by licensing new and veteran real estate agents, and charging fees for classes
you really think they want to paint a horrible picture? Who wants to go into a miserable business right now? Volume has dried up, you also want these guys to know that their tickets are going to get smaller too?
“Does it matter what numbers the IAR put out in their press release?”
no not really, unless you’re a realtor
“Do buyers (and sellers) care about medians?”
probably not, but it gives buyers an extra bargaining chip when negotiating a purchase price.
“The IAR makes money by licensing new and veteran real estate agents, and charging fees for classes”
Actually, they don’t license agents/brokers, the state does, they charge association membership dues. And, as far as I’m aware, they don’t offer classes…or at least I have never and would never take classes from them. CAR, on the other hand, does offer classes, but there are plenty of places that offer them cheaper or for free.
To get access to the MLS as a salesperson or broker you need to become a member of CAR, IAR, and NAR. If MLS access wasn’t contingent on these memberships, I doubt most people would pay the dues and join.
“The IAR makes money by licensing new and veteran real estate agents, and charging fees for classes”
Actually, they don’t license agents/brokers, the state does, they charge association membership dues. And, as far as I’m aware, they don’t offer classes…or at least I have never and would never take classes from them. CAR, on the other hand, does offer classes, but there are plenty of places that offer them cheaper or for free.
To get access to the MLS as a salesperson or broker you need to become a member of CAR, IAR, and NAR. If MLS access wasn’t contingent on these memberships, I doubt most people would pay the dues and join.
“There’s no room for interpretation here, a median is a median and nothing else. I have a hard time believing such a simple thing was accidentally screwed up.”
The problem is that they haven’t said how the error or mis-statement occurred, so it’s difficult to say if it’s reasonable that it was truly a mistake, or if it was intentional.
Overall market psychology and which way a market is trending are useful tools in analyzing any market. Using only personal need and or financial situation has left a lot of people with mortgages that are greater than their home value.
“Using only personal need and or financial situation has left a lot of people with mortgages that are greater than their home value.”
WTF are you talking about?!! It was the psychology of the bull market that got people in trouble – if they really were in touch with their needs and resources, they wouldn’t be in trouble. You are truly validating my point!!
“The problem is that they haven’t said how the error or mis-statement occurred,”
Their press release states:
“We have recently discovered that inconsistent data entry has led to inaccurate data output and reporting for the city of Chicago.”
Somehow that “inconsistent” data entry only started 4 months ago and somehow only they were effected when people like G were pulling from apparently the same source. Smells like bullshit to me, but who knows…
Russ, thank you so much. I thought it sounded weird.
Who gets access to MLS except agents and mortgage brokers?
“I thought this might be what you mean but could not believe you’d care about such a nit pick : )”
If we are to have definitions, they should mean something. Also, if you had been making a point about properties of order statistics that applied to medians I wouldn’t have quibbled.
“We have recently discovered that inconsistent data entry has led to inaccurate data output and reporting for the city of Chicago.”
“Somehow that “inconsistent” data entry only started 4 months ago and somehow only they were effected when people like G were pulling from apparently the same source. Smells like bullshit to me, but who knows…”
The oddity to me is that the volume numbers were (I believe) pretty close. It would be easier to understand if they were not pulling the Chicago observations correctly and e.g. missing a bunch of data (which wouldn’t be that surprising).
“The agent may throw out the comp for their own comparative market analysis”
Is that what’s going on, miu? If so, that really would seem like a reason to use a different agent.
“Who gets access to MLS except agents and mortgage brokers?”
Appraisers. I don’t think mortgage brokers have direct access, but I could be wrong. Not sure who else, but clearly G has some sort of data access. Based on how he pulls numbers, I don’t think it is the typical MLS.
@DZ, I will bring it up with her. Man I hate it when you find out people were BSing you. I feel sorry for the agents given the market condition, but if they will start being realistic about the situation rather than trying to put lipstick on the pig, they might actually make sales going which helps everyone. Even the sellers in denial are not doing themselves much favor. The good old ostrich strategy does not work!
i said G is Hal ; )
Most mortgage brokers/lo’s won’t have access unless they also hold a RE license which quite a few do. However, mortgage underwriters will have MLS access to fact check appraisals.
Clio studying market psychology doesn’t mean you always have to go along with it. One could argue since sentiment is so negative now ( I believe you have made this argument) it’s a good time to buy. The important thing is that before you step into a market it is often useful to know the sentiment of other participents. Like it or not data about median prices affects sentiment and sentiment affects prices.
ah the it would be too complicated and require too many to remain hush hush…
Nope never seen that happen. And culpability of zero.
I really love the ‘…except for my neighborhood, …except for my street, …except for my house’ mentality.
Home prices rose for many reasons. Home prices continue to fall for many reasons. The same reasons
Population changes
Incomes (averages and distributions)
Employment levels
Expectations for future prices
Mortgage Rates
Mortgage Availability
Mortgage Types Available (
i always do that…
ah the it would be too complicated and require too many to remain hush hush…
Nope never seen that happen. And culpability of zero.
Chuk.. Thanks for the link… Not sure i believe it is a consumer driven economy, but when i saw it a few weeks ago i do admit something has to break here on those rates, how can you not default at 400 percent a year.
“i said G is Hal”
I am putting myself to the fullest possible use, which is all I think that any conscious entity can ever hope to do.
I wonder if the other realtor associations are cooking the books on their numbers…
“I am putting myself to the fullest possible use, which is all I think that any conscious entity can ever hope to do.”
lol…another Kubrick fan I gather : )
Dave M: “I wonder if the other realtor associations are cooking the books on their numbers…”
I think you know what the problem is just as well as I do. It can only be attributable to human error. Dave, this conversation can serve no purpose anymore. Goodbye.
kudos G.
This instances the value of social media outlets like Crib Chatter, where crowdsourcing information produces results that are totally unreliable and surprisingly accurate.
“G (who I didn’t realize until today was an agent)”
G is not an agent. He has access to much more data than I do and it’s apparent he has direct database access. He’s probably skilled in the use of SQL and not using pedestrian tools like Access. I figure he works for something like a CoreLogic, though his focus on Chicago places him here in the city so I can’t figure out where he works. But someday…
clio on July 12th, 2011 at 5:15 am
Anyone who makes a decision of whether or not to buy a house based on median prices in Chicago is a complete and total moron. People who are interested in buying property should buy based on:
1. personal need/desire
2. personal financial situation
I agree with this completely. Of course the state of the market may matter if you are buying with the sole intention of turning a quick profit, but relying on one statistic alone is never a good business move.
“another Kubrick fan”
Or Clarke.
”
miumiu on July 12th, 2011 at 9:32 am
i said G is Hal ; )
”
nice
good job G; thanks for the data!
true anon : )
ah kubrick makes more sense. couldnt figure how to tie G to Shallow Hal
“Somehow that “inconsistent” data entry only started 4 months ago and somehow only they were effected when people like G were pulling from apparently the same source. Smells like bullshit to me, but who knows…”
They’d be more believable if the error led to understating the median value. Instead, the error supported the direction they are always trying to spin the numbers.
The IAR has issued a statement: http://www.illinoisrealtor.org/citydata
“They’d be more believable if the error led to understating the median value. Instead, the error supported the direction they are always trying to spin the numbers.”
I dunno. The error was supposedly committed by the IAR, which is different and a much larger super-set of the CAR.
The CAR realtors are the one’s who gained from this. But we’re urban snobs and think Illinois is Chicago on this blog: I can assure you there are probably far more members in the IAR than CAR. The non-Chicago realtors would not want the reputation of their trade group jeopardized just to benefit the CAR folks. Survey says…incompetence. Ding, ding, ding.
They had some monkey analyst working for them and being idiot salespeople that they are they never fact checked.
I never trusted IAR data or press releases to begin with after the discrepancies were first discussed on this site I’m not about to again in any case.
Open up the pod bay doors, G!
Congrats to G and the rest of the Chatterati for holding the IAR to account!
What I find interesting being a long time Chicago agent, is how much this ‘number discrepancy situation’ validates the fact that we do not use/pull/study these numbers at all. If we did, this would have been discovered a long time ago.
Contrary to what some believe, we’re not in the business of convincing people it’s the right time to buy or sell. We’re in the business of helping people buy or sell who decided that on their own.
Instead, Jeff, don’t most agents pay a trade association (CAR, IAR, NAR, etc) to “use/pull/study these numbers” for use “in the business of convincing people it’s the right time to buy or sell”?
There ya go, ze, “culpability of zero.”
seems like your business benefits if more people decide it’s the right time, no?
G, did you tip the trib?
How is this different from any other field? Seriously, there is so much false information spouted in the medical, legal, entertainment industries, it is ridiculous. If you guys only knew the absolute false information regarding health and medicine that is being published you would be very very scared and confused as to how to live your life!!
Clio – I agree! Give two people with opposing views the same simple data and they can craft it to shape to match their agenda. Just look at Washington. Stats can easily be mismanaged and misinterpeted.
that is a terrible argument clio
so clio, whats the real truth about eggs?
I can’t seem to figure out if they are healthy, or unhealthy… i’m siding towards healthy
eggs are awesome
“so clio, whats the real truth about eggs?”
egg whites are incredibly healthy – yolks are incredibly unhealthy!!
I guess if clio is suggesting he pays medical trade associations that spread “absolute false information” that just happens to facilitate his income gains and then claims no culpability, it is at least applicable (but still terrible.)
“Stats can easily be mismanaged and misinterpeted.”
clio knows that very well, jp3. His analysis of stats and that of those “in the know” led him to bet me that June 2011 sales volume would exceed June 2010. I have 1,820 vs 2,634. That 1,820 is the lowest since 1997 (1,817). Bye bye, clio.
man clio the more you say the dumber you look; to get the best benefit of egg you have to eat it all or find another superfood.
”
“so clio, whats the real truth about eggs?”
egg whites are incredibly healthy – yolks are incredibly unhealthy!!
“
Most people become members of trade associations because it’s a requirement in their industry for one reason or another.
“yolks are incredibly unhealthy!!”
that makes me sad, i love eating/making hollendaise sauce!
OK, G – I will admit that I was wrong with the sales numbers. I have no problem doing so – you ARE vindicated in this instance. Enjoy the spotlight – everyone should have their fifteen minutes!!! (I’m not being sarcastic).
With regards to one’s health, I truly believe that genetics accounts for 60-70%, luck (bad or good) accounts for 20-35%, and lifestyle (diet/exercise) accounts for 5-20%.
I think at the end of the day, this was a horrible thing to have happen at IAR, and it does matter if it was intentional, but even if it wasn’t it still looks pretty bad. Someone will most likely lose their job over this one. It’s not like they were 1% off either.
“OK, G – I will admit that I was wrong with the sales numbers. I have no problem doing so – you ARE vindicated in this instance.”
Wow, maybe you are a man of your word, afterall, clio? I figured you would wait until the IAR release to honor our bet and go away. I could see them not including the Chicago numbers (or no report at all) for June, given another bit of vindication that arose. Now, no need to wait since you acknowledge that you lost our bet. One more post to say goodbye?
Here is an example of an “educated person” spouting nonsense:
http://shine.yahoo.com/channel/health/should-parents-lose-custody-of-super-obese-kids-2510149/
well if one leaves a kid in the car unattended or at home it is negligence, right?
so why not feeding crap to kids because mummy wants to watch tv is fine? in fact these kids are in mortal peril because of diabetes, high cholesterol and so on.
“well if one leaves a kid in the car unattended or at home it is negligence, right?”
moret than once, this has made me wish for more drive thru liquor stores
lol…good one : )
clio.. Shows some class. Nice. Me thinks someone else owes G a much bigger apology.
Ok sonies.. I spit my milk.. I am pretty sure if you are making eggs benedict… Drooling as i typed that… The eggs aint your worry.
As for yolks. Healthy if grass fed. Real grass fed should be more orange than orange juice. Beta caratine makes it orange and the grass bumps up the omega fats…
Ohh eggs benedict on a bagel with smoked salmon and a poached egg…. I’m dying here.
and to share some new knowledge. If you are ever constipated, drive to a farm and get raw milk. Your body will have a blast processing new sugars and proteins…. You and lil’ deux deux will be running about even on a consistency basis in no time.
“Ohh eggs benedict on a bagel with smoked salmon and a poached egg…. I’m dying here.”
I prefer my thinly sliced filet benedict on an everything bagelthin
oh man its a treat
@ ze : )
btw, you are so right on grass fed stuff. it tastes so much better too.
i like my egg, just simply hard boiled with a nice slice of toast and a bit of butter.
“so why not feeding crap to kids because mummy wants to watch tv is fine? in fact these kids are in mortal peril because of diabetes, high cholesterol and so on.”
miu, this has been circulating:
http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory?id=14056725
yup DZ. BTW, what is a bioethicist? I love how he is trying to muddy the water and diffuse the issue. Yes I am sure the 3 year old 90 pounder was obese because of peer pressure and had a set of wonderful responsible parents. Give me a break please!
miumiu, usually your views are a little more nuanced, but maybe your purported ignorance of what a medical ethicist or bioethicist is (I can’t believe that it’s a real ignorance) reflects that some of your views are more European. I do associate the views of European liberals with being more willing to acquiesce to more state control over parenting and medical decisions.
“Obese children are victims of advertising, marketing,”
Contrary to what some believe, McDonald’s is not in the business of convincing people it’s the right time to eat. They are in the business of helping people eat who decided that on their own.
McDonald’s has plenty of healthy items on their menu. Salads, apples, etc.
The reality is that people don’t want that stuff and kids don’t either.
Ask any McDonald’s owner operator how many parents request the french fries in happy meals to be substituted with apple slices and watch them laugh at the thought. And yes, you can substitute apples for French Fries.
With that said, there is a problem in low income communities of obesity which I think in some part is driven by the lack of healthy food options. Doing your basic grocery shopping at the corner liquor store can’t be healthy.
Kids are fat asses because all they do is play video games these days too. When we were growing up we wanted to go out and play. Nowadays, being sent outside to play is viewed as punishment. God forbid little johnny has to go three hours without playing Call of Duty or GTA.
“Ask any McDonald’s owner operator how many parents request the french fries in happy meals to be substituted with apple slices and watch them laugh at the thought. And yes, you can substitute apples for French Fries.”
The apples come with “caramel” dipping sauce, tho. Prolly worse than the fries.
“Nowadays, being sent outside to play is viewed as punishment”
and sending your kids outside alone is considered child abuse
I mean seriously you guys can’t leave your kid in the car if you run into a 7-11 to get some water or something?
wtf is that crap, no way are we havin kids if thats the case!
“I mean seriously you guys can’t leave your kid in the car if you run into a 7-11 to get some water or something? ”
Not if you don’t want someone in your business.
those mcdonalds salads are good. been telling people for years… since they made the improvement. but I dont know anyone else who eats them.
“he reality is that people don’t want that stuff and kids don’t either.”
so whose fault is this? to me the parents. we all learn most of our food habits from our parents. Sure there is massive advertising of junk food on tv and all, but to me parents are the most responsible. I have seen it numerous times that they feed the kid juices (instead of water), chocolates, ultra sweet cereals and so on.
JJJ, so what do you suggest we should do? fail the kids, the most vulnerable of the society? also it is you and I who pick up the bills for treating all the unhealthy individuals these kids will turn into. I am financially conservative and actually find early intervention cheaper.
@ sonies, could not agree more. some of these rules are just not that smart.
“so whose fault is this? to me the parents.”
The real question is why the hell do you and politicians you vote for care about other people’s lives and seek to exert ever more control over them?
Why does salt need to be cut so much? (High quantities only adversely impacts 1/3 of the population) Why must calories be posted at certain restaurants now? Why can’t toys be included in happy meals only if they meet certain thresholds?
This is AMERICA. A country founded on FREE CHOICE and minding your own Fing business. I’ll buy any kind of light bulbs I want. If/when TSHTF people like me are going to make sure people like you pay dearly for what you aspired to change our society into.
“JJJ, so what do you suggest we should do? fail the kids, the most vulnerable of the society?”
NEWS FLASH, MS. IDIOT: You can’t do anything. They aren’t your kids! Those kids where failed at conception when their mama decided to bring them into this world out of wedlock to provide some value and self-esteem to her otherwise very hard life and baby daddy ran off shortly thereafter or wound up incarcerated.
Your belief that you or society can step in to correct these wrongs is laughable. It won’t be for lack of wasting money and trying.
Need not be a race thing either: I can’t think of one successful kids from my peer group who was born to parents out of wedlock (or who didn’t get married shortly thereafter).
Guess what moomoo? If their parents don’t give a crap about them (as evidenced by: staying in a bad ghetto, running off on them, being incarcerated, being a drug/alcohol addict) no amount of government spending can correct that. The kids aren’t dumb. You need to get over thinking you can make the world a utopia for everyone via government intervention.
Bob – I totally agree with you. People are going to make their own choices – let them do it AND pay the consequences.
Bob, your lightbulb law was passed when Bush was president. The republicans wanted to control your lightbulbs….
“those mcdonalds salads are good. been telling people for years”
CH: have you tried the new Wendy’s summer salads? Very, very tasty (especially the berry/chicken one.)
“The republicans wanted to control your lightbulbs….”
Who controlled congress in 2007?
And just because Bush2 wasn’t a real conservative who believed in liberty doesn’t mean all politicians share that viewpoint. As a percentage of their party far more Democrats do than Republicans, however.
@ Bob, i might have a utopian view point, but you are mistaken to think in a highly coupled structure such as society failure of others in massive scales does not impact your quality of life. The burden of health issues these kids are facing will be on all of us.
FYI:
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/articles/2010/0914_obesity_cost_hammond_levine/0914_obesity_cost_hammond_levine.pdf
Do you know why there are ‘food deserts’ in the bad areas, miumiu? It’s because people get shot, con frequencia.
Cook killed in Bronzeville: ‘Going to work every day for his children and he gets killed’
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/chi-barbecue-restaurant-worker-killed-in-driveby-shooting-20110713,0,290991.story
Honest family man shot dead by some stupid feral punk who should’ve never been born. Not wanting to play god, he should’ve at least not had all of his needs provided for on the taxpayers dole when his daddy was locked up or ran off. Maybe he wants to share a cell with his pa for the rest of his life.
i think we just have to agree to disagree. to me if the “punk” had some help during his miserable childhood, things might have turned differently. not saying it would for sure have worked but it might have. also educating these young women about consequences of having kids young without support might just might help.
unlike you i have not yet given up on humankind : ) now i am not saying wasteful useless government run programs are the solution, i am just saying some sort of intervention is needed. question is what form of intervention works for this country.
btw, have you thought that if “punks” did not have guns readily available to them, the outcome might have been different? i don’t get it, it is a free country for all to get guns, but people get incarcerated for possessing pot which incidentally does not seem to harm any more than alcohol or i would argue obesity for that matter.
“btw, have you thought that if “punks” did not have guns readily available to them, the outcome might have been different?”
But guns are illegal, moomoo. Maybe you should write to your progressive politicians to ban the idea of guns and the plans for them?
“but people get incarcerated for possessing pot which incidentally does not seem to harm any more than alcohol or i would argue obesity for that matter.”
This country is going to fiscal hell in a handbasket precisely because of misplaced priorities like the drug war. Other drugs _are_ bad for people too, but I don’t think we should be paying money to save people from themselves.
If the US defaults maybe some good will come out of it via prioritizing what we really want to spend money on from our government.
In my view adults are free to abuse any substance they want (food, drugs…) as long as they are accountable for the consequences and don’t significantly harm others. Say they can smoke as much as they like as long as it is not in a closed space harming others and so on. My objection was about kids. But, if someone wants to be 400 pounds they better pay for larger seats or buy two tickets or travel business on the plane and better be paying different rates for their healthcare. I have no problem subsidizing for folks with bad genetics with diseases who got a bad draw but if someone wants to drink sodas literally from buckets, why should everyone else have to pay for them?
“Need not be a race thing either: I can’t think of one successful kids from my peer group who was born to parents out of wedlock (or who didn’t get married shortly thereafter).”
Pfft. You clearly just don’t know enough people.
“CH: have you tried the new Wendy’s summer salads? Very, very tasty (especially the berry/chicken one.)”
Thanks for the tip, I will give it a shot
obesity is much worse than pot. I’ve run a triathlon high, never could run 1/4 mile if I were obese. I rest my case.
But then again obese would get me one of those cool carts, with a basket in front, maybe a big gulp holder, that I saw everywhere in Chicago.
“But then again obese would get me one of those cool carts, with a basket in front, maybe a big gulp holder, that I saw everywhere in Chicago.”
No place in the world compares to Florida for the prevalence of the old/fat scooter.
Haha…lol. I’m sure this was just an honest mistake. After all Suzanne researched this. And we all know how much Suzanne cares about the people who rely on her expertise.
So much RE in Chicago and beyond is going to ZERO. This is anyone willing/able to pay the ongoing taxes & assessments on a place will get to live there. It’s already starting in places like East Rogers Park and Englewood and spreading rapidly to every neighborhood where the bottom 2/3rds of the population live. Don’t worry I’m not saying a $1.5m home in Oak Brook is going to zero, but is it going to the price that a 2/2 in the GZ was selling at the peak? Yep.
Who do you think it going to pay for the needs of the bottom 2/3rds of our society who have either no job or a low paying job, and no prospects? Answer, every sucker holding holding the RE bag all the way down.
With both taxes and interest rates artificially low, ridiculously low in the case of rates, NOW is the best time to sell. It is the best time to sell that any future bag holders are going to see in their lifetime.
Blame da computer
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/chi-realty-group-that-overreported-chicago-home-prices-says-number-crunching-was-incomplete-20110722,0,5405474.story
“those mcdonalds salads are good. been telling people for years… since they made the improvement. but I dont know anyone else who eats them.”
I do, CH! I do! Asian chicken salad, son! The wraps are good too. I like flying out of O’Hare just cuz of the Micky D’s!
http://www.illinoisrealtor.org/statementcitydata
“It has been determined, beginning with the November 2010 city of Chicago median price reports, that the program did not recognize some of the data fields thus eliminating, on average, 11 percent of the records per month, which resulted in a higher median price determination.”
The previous IAR statement alluded to further errors, but apparently they are just what I have been saying here.
According to my calculations, these are the approx minimum % of records they omitted from their incorrect median calculations.
November 2010 9.4%
December 2010 10.5%
January 2011 9.5%
February 2011 13.7%
March 2011 14.2%
April 2011 14.7%
May 2011 16.8%
average 12.7%
Thanks for the update G.
Does anyone know where to find the “adjusted” data then? (since IAR says they have fixed it going back to Nov 2010.)
“those mcdonalds salads are good. been telling people for years”
CH: have you tried the new Wendy’s summer salads? Very, very tasty (especially the berry/chicken one.)
Sabrina, just returned from wendys. tried to remember which one you recommended at drive thru window. thought the berry/chicken looked good but didnt think that was it. went with the baja salad instead. they handed me the salad then a second bag. it was warm. i asked what’s in this? girl said , chili, it goes on the salad.
odd, but wasnt bad