Market Conditions: Hottest September Sales in 14 Years as Pandemic Boost Continues
The September housing data is out.
Last year’s September was the slowest in 8 years so it’s not a surprise that 2020 saw a rebound.
However, the hot pandemic market from the summer looks to be continuing into the fall as sales were the highest in 14 years, and that includes the 2007 “housing bubble” market.
The city of Chicago saw year-over-year home sales increase 28.1 percent with 2,570 sales in September, compared to 2,006 a year ago. The median price of a home in the city of Chicago in September was $322,500, up 10.4 percent from September 2019.
September sales for the last 14 years:
- 2007: 2172 sales
- 2008: 1816 sales
- 2009: 1918 sales
- 2010: 1403 sales
- 2011: 1498 sales
- 2012: 1845 sales
- 2013: 2395 sales
- 2014: 2242 sales
- 2015: 2414 sales
- 2016: 2398 sales
- 2017: 2355 sales
- 2018: 2040 sales
- 2019: 2006 sales
- 2020: 2570 sales
Median prices for the last 14 years:
- 2007: $267,750
- 2008: $268,600
- 2009: $225,000
- 2010: $180,000
- 2011: $190,000
- 2012: $188,900
- 2013: $230,000
- 2014: $249,000
- 2015: $250,000
- 2016: $260,000
- 2017: $275,000
- 2018: $285,000
- 2019: $292,250
- 2020: $322,500
“Continuing a three-month trend, both the Illinois and Chicago area housing markets recorded positive year-over-year increases in both prices and sales,” said Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, emeritus director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the University of Illinois. “Two concerns are the continuing low inventory problem and the increase in the number of serious delinquencies. While the former issue is having a significant impact on upward price movements, the delinquency problem in combination with increases in the number of long-term unemployed may dampen demand in 2021.”
Statewide, inventory fell 35.8% to 40,047 properties from 62,406 properties a year ago.
In Chicago, however, inventory was up 1.9% year-over-year to 10,661 from 10,467 a year ago.
The 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell again, to an average of 2.89% in September from 2.94% in August. It was 3.61% in September 2019.
“With continued record low interest rates, we’re still seeing an increase in demand on properties as indicated in the 28.1 percent increase in closed sales and 10.4 percent increase in median sales price,” said Nykea Pippion McGriff, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and vice president of brokerage services of Coldwell Banker Realty. “Buyers are capitalizing on the market and acting quickly, especially for well-priced properties.”
Single family homes sales in Chicago soared 30% in the month to 1,075 while condos sales were up a healthy 26.8% to 1495.
The price pressures appear to be mostly on the single family home side, however, as single family median price was up 21.6% year-over-year to $297,950 while condos were up just 0.3% to $335,750.
Again, keep in mind, that median is determined by the mix of the sales.
Year-to-date, Chicago sales are still down 7% compared to last year at 19,121 versus 20,569 in September 2019.
But the “spring” buying season was interrupted and has been pushed to the summer and fall.
What will be the key factors that could trip up this housing boom into 2021?
- Low inventory?
- Rising mortgage rates?
- High unemployment/slow recovery?
- No vaccine?
Illinois housing market continued to bounce back in September with a surge in home sales and higher median prices [Illinois Association of Realtors, Press Release, October 22, 2020]
Using Gary’s data we’re still lagging approx 500 sales in 2019 and 1500 in 2018
“What will be the key factors that could trip up this housing boom into 2021?
Low inventory?
Rising mortgage rates?
High unemployment/slow recovery?
No vaccine?”
Presidential election
Sorry Bob the Bear, but Chicago’s housing market isn’t spiraling down into doom. Nor is Illinois’.
A $9.5 million North Shore house just closed (yes- it was on the Lake) and is the most expensive home to sell this year.
A $4.5 million East Lincoln Park house just closed as well.
Single family home sales are hot. All price points.
There’s a glitch in the Matrix.
Bob’s Bot hypothesis may have legs
Boom times in Winnetka. Now the fifth home in 2020 to sell for over $5mm.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Winnetka/203-Sheridan-Rd-60093/home/13784592
“fifth home in 2020 to sell for over $5mm”
Assssed value = $3.8m
How bad is the inside of the house, that there is not a single pic?
Some interior pix here, but all with fake furnishings (appears it has been vacant for 4 years):
https://www.trulia.com/p/il/winnetka/203-sheridan-rd-winnetka-il-60093–1011263435?mid=0#lil-mediaTab
“Fish, sail, swim at any time”
LOL, not quite. Maybe 3 months of the year. That said, all those folks going to ugly places like Tampa, FL and bidding up those properties to levels like $7 million etc. are going to have buyers remorse once they realize there’s nothing there, no industry, no culture, no history or sense of place, etc.
“That said, all those folks going to ugly places like Tampa, FL and bidding up those properties to levels like $7 million etc. are going to have buyers remorse once they realize there’s nothing there, no industry, no culture, no history or sense of place, etc.”
Now THIS is where HH probably lives. Florida!
Yes. It all makes sense.
It has no “industry, culture, no history or sense of place?”
Lol.
Tampa actually has several wonderful historic neighborhoods with 100 year old homes. And let’s not forget that the oldest currently occupied city on mainland America is in Florida.
And the Seminole Indians would be kind of pissed to hear they have no history, culture, or sense of place.
Just looked at how fast homes are selling in more detail. I do not see a material difference from last year. http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2020/11/chicago-real-estate-market-how-long-it-takes-to-sell-a-home-in-2020/
Republicans likely to hold on to the US Senate.
This means Democrats #1 policy priority–repealing the Republican 2017 tax bill which limited the SALT deduction and lowered the mortgage interest exclusion to $750k from $1MM is effectively dead in the water for the next two years.
It also means McConnell may withhold aid from strapped cities like Chicago. And old blue legacy cities like Chicago aren’t ever in the business of cutting much spending so taxes will have to be raised to cover the shortfall, and much of those taxes will be increased property taxes.
“It also means McConnell may withhold aid from strapped cities like Chicago.”
EVERY city is cash strapped Bob. Don’t you get it? EVERY city and EVERY state.
Mitch won’t withhold anything. Nancy holds all the cards. And there isn’t going to be a deal without aid to the cities and states. Pressure is mounting as more and more small businesses close.
The next 5 months is going to be horrific. Both on businesses and on public health.
“This means Democrats #1 policy priority–repealing the Republican 2017 tax bill which limited the SALT deduction and lowered the mortgage interest exclusion to $750k from $1MM is effectively dead in the water for the next two years.”
If you think THIS is the Democrats “#1 policy priority”- then you really don’t have a clue.
It’s not even on the list of the top 5.
Biden laid out what those were in his speech. COVID will be the #1 priority with the economy a close second. Climate change will be next.
Oh, and he may move by executive order to forgive $50,000 in student loan debt per student.
I wonder what that could do for the housing market? Could it add more fuel to the fire?
It certainly would be a big economic stimulus for the overall economy.
I doubt Biden can forgive $50k in student loan debt with a stroke of his pen. Where is that money coming from? He won’t control the purse with a split congress. From googling the outrageous $50k number you threw out it seems you’re referring to his proposed reduction in time for Public Service Loan Forgiveness to 5 years from 10. Newsflash: not many people are in that small population as it currently stands in the universe of student loans. Most of his other proposals are window dressing/pillowtalk on the massive 1.4T in student loans.
$50k student loan forgiveness was pillow-talk to get those deeply indebted persons, especially those who studied the wrong major to vote for him in the election. There is something called a debt limit and he can’t exceed it without congress’ approval as well.
Repealing the SALT cap remains such a policy priority for the Democrat party that the chamber of congress they control was already passing bills appealing it with full knowledge it would go no where in the Senate. It doesn’t get a lot of coverage on MSDNC because it’s about money. Hint: it’s always about money.
They can focus on covid as their banner policy priority but the reality of covid funds will likely have to pass muster in a Republican controlled senate. Maybe not, surely if they win both runoffs, but lots of people who voted in Georgia to vote Trump out will not be voting in those. And many who did vote to vote Trump out will be voting in those and voting Republican.
Climate change? Mostly pillow talk as well unless you consider Biden undoing Trump’s executive orders on deregulation on day 1 climate change policy which he will do.
If you’re counting on massive restructuring of the gigantic student loan market to be your knight in shining armor to save the real estate market you are in deep shit. HOWMUCHAMONTH, Sabrina? HOWMUCHAMONTH?
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/475352-house-votes-to-temporarily-repeal-trump-salt-deduction-cap
If Republicans hold the senate deeply indebted (mostly Democrat but not all) locales might be in a bit of a quandary as there will be no blank check to cover up past poor financial management.
Here’s to hoping they hold the Senate so any funds disbursed as part of a covid package are exactly that: funds used to compensate these locales for true covid-related expenses/economic damage and not a blank check that allows these places to come out ahead on the other side of this in a better condition than they were before the pandemic hit.
Yes Chicago needs and should be entitled to money for the pandemic. No it should not be a blank check.
And if you’re girding for a deeply transformed America (political policy-wise) on the other side of this you’re about to be gravely mistaken is my suspicion. But yes our society will indeed be indelibly transformed by the technological shift to work from anywhere on the other side of this. And that doesn’t bode well for high-tax, high-spend legacy industrial cities, especially those with bad weather.
“If you think THIS is the Democrats “#1 policy priority”- then you really don’t have a clue.
It’s not even on the list of the top 5.”
Depends on how you define Democrats
Theres a large number of Dems in high tax states (NY, NJ, CA, etc) that are realizing that a non insignificant number of HNW folks are looking for an out. CA and Gov Fatfuck’s proposed tax hikes aint helping
The affected paid good money to get Joe elected
“I doubt Biden can forgive $50k in student loan debt with a stroke of his pen.”
I saw $50k but it might only be $10k.
Yes, he can do it with a stroke of the pen. Just like Trump has been “legislating.” Just signs an executive order.
It simply gets added onto the federal deficit.
The vaccine is a game changer for the cities. They will be humming again by next summer with baseball, concerts, movie theaters reopened, shopping, bars and dining.
Renters should lock in those rental deals now, while they can.
Just posted my October update: http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2020/11/chicago-real-estate-market-update-coming-back-strong-in-october/
Another 14 year high in closings. Stuff is selling fast and inventory is really low for single family homes. Condo inventory much higher but not at record levels by any means.
Market times are either faster than last year or the same depending on how you measure it. I go into that a bit in the post. It’s tricky.
Once again Sabrina is wrong
“Dr. Scott Gottlieb suggested that even if everything goes perfectly from here, the proposed vaccine would not be widely available to the public until the third quarter of 2021, or later. ”
unless our governments stop with the absolutely useless lockdown bullshit and we actually get infected and reach herd immunity before then, ain’t shit happening in Chicago this summer. Tyrants never want to relinquish their power, give them an inch and they will take a mile.
Yeah, the vaccine(s) are probably a year away at least. They will need to to through expedited approvals and once that is finished the manufacturer will need to ramp up production, figure out distribution and then the actual vaccination can begin.
I think a lot of progressives (and conservatives) are going to be sorely disappointed for the next few years. Suburbanites returned the republicans they like to various offices. Once the dust settles we might have some pragmatic, centrist governance.
“The vaccine is a game changer for the cities. They will be humming again by next summer with baseball, concerts, movie theaters reopened, shopping, bars and dining.
Renters should lock in those rental deals now, while they can.”
Crime is skyrocketing, taxes are going up (in Illinois & especially Chicago) & any vaccine is a year away for the able bodied.
Sabrina the travel industry as an example isn’t expected to return to 2019 levels until… 2025. Your belief that society will go back to normal nine months from now smacks of a naivety I don’t quite know how to comprehend.
If your belief is common then that means the political party in power is going to be very much punished in 2022 & dare I say possibly even 2024.
Biden owns covid on January 20th and I wish him the best of luck, but damn is there reason to be skeptical.
“Crime is skyrocketing, taxes are going up (in Illinois & especially Chicago) & any vaccine is a year away for the able bodied.”
Bob- still being the bear. Imagine being a bear for the last 13 years!
Lol.
We’ll get the vaccine early next year. Several other companies will be announcing the results of their trials in the next 2 weeks. Several should have similar results to Pfizer.
So, yeah, the city (all cities) are going to explode as the vaccine rolls out. There’s a lot of pent-up demand. Imagine those initial baseball games? Imagine going to a music festival? Or a concert in Millennium Park?
Bob, if you don’t think things will bounce back next year (which, by the way, tourists are ALREADY in Chicago, even before a vaccine) then I feel sorry for you. The vaccine rollout will be treacherous. It’s not going to be easy but everyone just wants the pandemic to be over. After a long winter, the spring will come.
Most on this blog couldn’t “see” the bottom in the housing bust in 2012. Many insisted prices would continue to fall. That things were still over valued. That all the “deals” on this site weren’t deals at all.
They were way behind the curve.
Bob is too.
If you don’t have your rental deal already, be prepared to pay more next year.
“They will need to to through expedited approvals and once that is finished the manufacturer will need to ramp up production, figure out distribution and then the actual vaccination can begin.”
FG: They are already manufacturing it. Pfizer said today that they will be rolling it out to medical professionals and the elderly as soon as January. They see it being open to the general public by March or April.
Now, everyone is hopeful, even as the logistics of it are tenuous.
But other companies will also have vaccines so they will be rolling these all out shortly.
“Once again Sabrina is wrong”
Nope sonies. Pfizer CEO himself said today that they will begin rolling it out by January.
“unless our governments stop with the absolutely useless lockdown bullshit and we actually get infected and reach herd immunity before then”
But let’s talk about what this is really all about.
So sonies, you’re a denier, huh? Is that why you moved to Nevada? To deny that the virus exists? That it’s a hoax? 15% unemployment in Las Vegas.
To get “herd immunity” we would have 3 million dead.
Chicago’s positivity rate, by the way, remains below that of the suburbs or the rest of the state of Illinois because of the restrictions that were originally put on, and have been put on again. But it’s rising because we can’t keep people out who come from the suburbs.
Meanwhile, Iowa, Wisconsin, the Dakotas are in an emergency situation. Iowa is at 50% positivity. You don’t come back from that. Our poor doctors and nurses. They don’t deserve this! They have lives too. To see all that pain, suffering and death. One doctor in Utah recently worked 19 straight days. Texas is begging people to stay home because they don’t have enough nurses.
In the spring, nurses could fly into NY and NJ to help because the outbreak wasn’t national. But now it is. Nurses in one state can’t be sent somewhere else.
Sonies, shame on you for sacrificing our medial professionals so that you can go out to eat. Shame.
We need to do what Germany is doing. Pay the restaurants, hotels and movie theaters to close. It’s not that expensive. It stops the spread and they stay in business to reopen when this is over.
But, instead, Mitch wants to do a “skinny bill” that doesn’t do enough.
Shame. Shame on you all.
“Another 14 year high in closings. Stuff is selling fast and inventory is really low for single family homes. Condo inventory much higher but not at record levels by any means.”
Thanks for the update Gary. Some interesting data in there.
Just 1.8 months of inventory for SFH? Yikes. This is why prices are on the rise in that category.
But I was surprised that condo and townhouses was just 6 months. It seems like a lot more downtown but maybe that’s where it’s all at and there’s little inventory in the neighborhoods.
Because 6 months is a balanced market. Neither buyer nor seller has the advantage there.
Contracts still look really strong. This is surprising as we’re in November and this is when it normally slows down. But maybe people just want to be in their new place for the winter.
I still don’t think Chicago is building enough to meet the demand. That should keep a floor under prices.
Suburbs suck. Everyone knew this, and everyone will be back to the cities in a few short years. Buy depressed city condos, and sell sell sell rural area appreciated housing. Vacation areas are great but cities is where people want to live. knee-jerk decision never pan out.
Book it!
“Iowa is at 50% positivity.”
Uh, no:
https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/health/iowas-covid-19-positivity-rates-may-be-even-higher-than-state-says-20201110
At this point, I have to assume you’re just trolling us with this sort of nonsense.
“So, yeah, the city (all cities) are going to explode as the vaccine rolls out. There’s a lot of pent-up demand. Imagine those initial baseball games? Imagine going to a music festival? Or a concert in Millennium Park?”
You forgot Pride month and Grindr hook-ups.
This COVID-hoax is part of the Great Reset. Google it, if anyone can still even trust Google anymore. There hasn’t even been one famous person dead in this “pandemic” (except for the 999-plan guy). Remember when we were going to need a field hospital at the Javits Center or McCormick Place. You’re being gaslighted, along with the claim that there was no vote fraud. This country is so f*cking dishonest today it’s never been worse, and it’s the country Sabrina supports. Shame.
Our hospitals are not overrun and “front line” nurses and doctors are not dying. Prove it. Gaslighting. It’s the form of the Flu.
I read that Greece is going into a new draconian lockdown and there’s been less than 800 total deaths, if one can even believe they’re from “COVID” in the first place.
Scummy liars had England in a lockdown, but allowed freedom of super-spreading among goon squad rioters (worse than KKK) and protesters in the USA.. Hypocrisy, who can stand such liars and perverts and anti-white racist that Sabrina is sympathetic too. Immoral.
“So sonies, you’re a denier, huh? Is that why you moved to Nevada? To deny that the virus exists? That it’s a hoax? 15% unemployment in Las Vegas.
To get “herd immunity” we would have 3 million dead. ”
I’m not a denier, the virus is just like any other seasonal coronavirus. Do you know that we had 56 million flu cases last year? Now they aren’t even counting influenza cases at all, just coronavirus cases… well thats why “cases” are exploding.. at this point of a pandemic, tests mean fuck all
The New York Times and several experts admitted in late August that up to 90% of positive PCR tests were not indicative of the active illness that could be transmitted to others.
Dr. Anthony Fauci expressed a similar opinion in July. As I have reported several times before, the cycle threshold (Ct), or the number of times the test sample is amplified, is too high. According to Just the News, Dr. Fauci acknowledged this in an interview with “This Week in Virology”:
Joining the hosts of This Week in Virology in July, Fauci directly responded to a question about COVID-19 testing, specifically how patients with positive tests might determine whether or not they are actually infectious and need to quarantine.
“What is now sort of evolving into a bit of a standard,” Fauci said, is that “if you get a cycle threshold of 35 or more … the chances of it being replication-confident are minuscule.”
“It’s very frustrating for the patients as well as for the physicians,” he continued, when “somebody comes in, and they repeat their PCR, and it’s like [a] 37 cycle threshold, but you almost never can culture virus from a 37 threshold cycle.”
So, I think if somebody does come in with 37, 38, even 36, you got to say, you know, it’s just dead nucleotides, period.”
The virus exists, lockdowns don’t do a fucking thing to contain it, where are you getting 3 million dead from? Those models that were off by a factor of 10 when this whole fucking thing started? Epidemiologists have been fucking clueless about the severity of this thing that we have been dealing with for centuries already.
Fuck your lockdowns, fuck your worthless masks, and fucking fight for your life back or else prepare to have these tyrannical governors rule your lives forever.
” they aren’t even counting influenza cases at all”
Huh?
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
Looks like they are proceeding mainly as normal.
BTW, received a message from my nephew who is a doctor at the North Shore complex in Evanston and Glenview. His exact message “Media not doing an adequate job of conveying the severity of this wave of COVID.
Stay away from people and wear a mask, it’s getting bad.” Take away whatever message you choose. I’m just attempting to provide local data.
“unless our governments stop with the absolutely useless lockdown bullshit and we actually get infected and reach herd immunity before then”
And where has this worked?
anon (tfo)Iowas is indeed at 50% https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/iowa
“Our hospitals are not overrun and “front line” nurses and doctors are not dying. Prove it. Gaslighting. It’s the form of the Flu.”
Then why was my knee replacement for Monday just cancelled? The hospital is giving up revenue to perpetrate a hoax? There is a hospital bed shortage. Do you think Greg Abbott is in on the hoax also? Faking the problems in El Paso? What universe do you live in?
“Our hospitals are not overrun and “front line” nurses and doctors are not dying. Prove it. Gaslighting. It’s the form of the Flu.”
——————–
HH, unless you are a doctor, STFU. If you are a doctor, then as you say, “prove it.”
“Take away whatever message you choose. I’m just attempting to provide local data.”
Thanks for the update from your nephew Melanie.
Yes, it’s getting bad out there again. Be safe everyone. Stay home if you can.
“I’m not a denier, the virus is just like any other seasonal coronavirus.”
So, yes, sonies, you are a denier.
I’m so sorry for you and your family. God bless you all during the next 2 months.
“Remember when we were going to need a field hospital at the Javits Center or McCormick Place.”
Chicago hospitals are preparing again to be overwhelmed. I would not be surprised if there’s talk of McCormick Place again in about a week.
HH: you go into lockdown to save your hospitals and health care workers. If your hospitals become overwhelmed, it is too late. And then when you have a heart attack, they can’t save you because there’s no room or doctors to do so.
In the rural areas of North and South Dakota, those hospitals have 10 to 15 beds. They are airlifting patients to bigger cities, even in nearby states. But those hospitals are also overwhelmed. What happens if they can’t airlift them? They will die in the small, rural hospital that doesn’t have the facilities to handle the worst of the COVID cases.
Additionally, so many doctors and nurses are infected and quarantining, some hospitals are having difficulty operating at all. At one hospital, they apparently are having some continue to work even if they’ve tested positive for Covid.
Many Greek islands don’t have the capabilities either. And they can’t afford to allow it to overwhelm their islands. Same with why Hawaii has been mostly shut this entire time.
We are basically repeating 1918 all over again. In 1918, there was the outbreak in the spring. People called it a hoax, didn’t and wouldn’t wear masks, didn’t socially distance, fought with leaders who put on restrictions and then November came and it was twice as bad as the first wave.
And here we are.
Rock on.
“Iowa is at 50% positivity.”
Yes. It’s at 50%. Wisconsin is at 42%. One of the bigger South Dakota cities is over 60% positivity now.
Just think about that for a minute. Damn. Thousands of tests and 60% are coming back positive.
There’s no stopping it now. It’s WAY worse than the first wave. And in these states, many are continuing to refuse to wear a mask.
Terrible.
And a president in the White House who was incompetent before the election and now is a non-entity. This second wave will go on his legacy.
In Texas, some hospitals are out of basic supplies. This is on the government. They had months to prepare for this. Dr. Fauci has been warning about the fall/winter wave for months.
There are now articles that the sugar rush from low rates is indeed helping bolster RE values.
Let people stretch their budgets to borrow whatever they can to buy in places like Chicagoland, the northeast corridor or the left coast.
Property taxes are already exorbitant and have risen at multiples several times more than overall inflation due to looting by the state + local governments and I don’t see anything arresting or reversing that decline. You have places that 25 years ago had $3k property taxes that are now at $18k/year. $3k/year you could cover that on a SS check or two in 1995, you aren’t paying $18k/yr with a SS check unless you’re eating cat food.
This will just further accelerate the exodus to places like Florida or Texas where RE values are cheaper, RE taxes are substantially cheaper and the weather is better (at least winter). There is no unlimited pot of money to tax & people will just leave.
It’s already happening in NYC where you have landlords with ask prices of restaurant space of ~$40k/month that can’t even open the absurdity is unreal and will continue so long as Jerome Powell continues to buy the CMBS at 100 cents on the dollar. All the Fed will do is further delay a true economic recovery as the market can’t clear. Illinois state government won’t clean up their act as they won’t be forced to so long as Jerome keeps buying IL GO bonds at 100c on the $ too. It’s disgusting and makes me want to puke.
To add anecdata: My parents live in a very rural area downstate. Family friend had a heart attack on Tuesday. They stabilized him in the ER and then had to transport him 75 miles to a regional medical center. Not because of the complexity of the case or special care needed. Because that was the closest hospital with available beds.
“I’m so sorry for you and your family. God bless you all during the next 2 months.”
Odds are I’ll be ok… even if for some reason I haven’t been exposed and my immune system didn’t fight it off and I actually get sick with covid 19 (about a 90% chance of not having it even though I would be sick), I still have a 99.9994% chance of not dying for people in my age group. I’ll take those odds since I’m not a worthless fat fuck with 3 comorbidities.
THIS IS NOT THE PLAGUE. IT IS A BAD FLU. WE NEED TO LEARN TO LIVE WITH IT.
“In Texas, some hospitals are out of basic supplies. This is on the government. ”
what? pretty sure thats on the hospitals…
“There’s no stopping it now. It’s WAY worse than the first wave. And in these states, many are continuing to refuse to wear a mask. ”
In 2018, the US healthcare system was overwhelmed by flu and Italy’s healthcare system collapsed under the strain of flu outbreaks in 2004-2005, 2009-2010 and 2017-2018.
weird how we didn’t shut down the economy back then eh?
Cases mean nothing, these tests are way too sensitive… how many fucking times do I have to explain this to people!
“We currently test for SARS-CoV-2 using the ‘real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction test’ (rt-PCR test). The test does not detect the virus itself, but detects the presence of genetic material of the virus called RNA. It does this by amplifying any RNA which is present in the sample. Think of it as a zoom lens on a camera. The cycle threshold (ct) is the number of times the specimen needs to be amplified in order to be able to detect whether or not virus RNA is present. At high cycle thresholds, the test can detect fragments of the RNA. These fragments of the virus, as opposed to complete strands, are not infectious. The test can even detect pieces of the virus that are left over from a previous infection weeks before.
Experts say that a cycle threshold over 35 is too sensitive to be meaningful. The US Centres for Disease Control has shown that patients who test positive at a cycle threshold of 33 or higher are probably not carrying enough of a viral load to transmit SARS-CoV-2 to others. Testing for Covid-19 follows a protocol set by the manufacturers of the tests. Our research shows that cycle thresholds of 37 to 40 are being used in most countries – way in excess of the levels recommended by epidemiologists and virologists. Some countries have changed the cycle thresholds over time resulting in a more sensitive test between the ‘first’ and ‘second’ waves.
The rt-PCR test was never intended to, and cannot, detect infectiousness. A review conducted by the New York Times of three sets of coronavirus testing data from Massachusetts, Nevada, and New York found that up to 90% of patients who tested positive for the virus were what scientists refer to as ‘cold positives’. Cold positives are distinguished from ‘hot positives’ who are actually infected with an intact virus. ‘Cold positives’ have very, very low viral loads and are not ill, not symptomatic, not going to become symptomatic and, most importantly, they are not able to infect others. The New York Times reported that if the rt-PCR test was run at recommended cycle thresholds, up to 90% of ‘cases’ would have been negative.
The way rt-PCR test protocols work, only a yes/no result is produced. They only tell you if a fragment of virus was found. This could be a piece of ‘dead’ virus that can’t make the subject sick or contagious. Even where intact virus is present, the test results do not currently give an indication of whether there was a sufficient viral load for the subject to be contagious.”
“I still have a 99.9994% chance of not dying for people in my age group.”
How narrowly are you defining your “age group” that you come up with 6 out of a million?
We know you ain’t 15-24, and even that age cohort has ~10 deaths per million. 35-44 is ~105/million, and that’s based on *all* in the cohort, not just those who have tested positive, much less those who were symptomatic.
If we say that the prevalence of positives is approximately the same for the age group as for the whole population, and round up a little to make you number look less bad, it’s 3.5% who have had the virus–so it’s 4426 deaths out of ~1.5 million 35-44 yos. That means a ‘survival rate’ of ~99.7%. And we still not at “symptomatic”, which was what you stated.
Again, assuming approximate whole population proportion is accurate for the cohort, 80% who are positive are (basically) asymptomatic. so that leaves us with 4426 deaths out of 300,000 who “actually get sick with covid 19”–for an actual survival rate of about 98.5%.
Or about 15,000 per million–2,500 times more than you stated.
the CEO of Rush Medical center was on CNBC this morning. He said today, they’re fine and have the capacity to increase beds. They can handle more patients. Watch it.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/11/13/we-cant-control-the-economic-crisis-if-we-dont-control-the-health-crisis-ceo.html?&qsearchterm=rush%20hospital%20chicago
“the CEO of Rush Medical center was on CNBC this morning.”
Thanks for the link marco.
Chicago isn’t overwhelmed yet. Thank goodness. Pritzker doesn’t believe they’ll have to re-open McCormick Place but it’s a wait and see as cases are spiking everywhere in the state and it takes 2 to 3 weeks from spiking cases to hospitalizations.
Let’s hope it stays this way.
In many states, it’s not just the hospital rooms, it’s having enough nurses and doctors. Many don’t have the staff with so many staffers getting covid and having to quarantine. And this go around, you can’t ask Texas nurses to fly in and help because they have their own problems.
“Cases mean nothing, these tests are way too sensitive… how many fucking times do I have to explain this to people!”
Then DON’T look at “cases” Sonies. Look at hospitalizations. At another new record high. We don’t have the staff to handle it all. And it’s expected to continue to rise over the next month.
Let’s hope Eli Lilly’s new treatment offers some hope to those who are the worst in the ICUs.
More shutdowns in various states now however.
Oregon and Washington. Chicago starts a 30-day “stay at home” tomorrow. Not totally shutting non-essentials though.
But if we’re like Austria, which did a “please comply” type of shutdown initially, but now is shutting down all non-essential because people didn’t comply, then the full shutdowns are soon to come.
It’s an emergency. Again.
But keep denying Sonies.
“what? pretty sure thats on the hospitals…”
Nope. It’s the government that is rushing through the supplies. You can’t get what doesn’t exist sonies. Trump could be pushing even more manufacturing through the Defense Production Act if he cared to govern and save American lives. But he doesn’t. He’s incompetent.
So we are stuck with this inadequate response for another 2 months- during the worst of this pandemic.
It’s just like 1918. Again. Spring was bad but everyone thought the worst was over. They got pandemic fatigue. They refused to wear masks. Second wave in November was much worse.
Here we are.
“To add anecdata: My parents live in a very rural area downstate. Family friend had a heart attack on Tuesday. They stabilized him in the ER and then had to transport him 75 miles to a regional medical center. Not because of the complexity of the case or special care needed. Because that was the closest hospital with available beds.”
Thanks for your story Madeline.
This is the danger. No more room in the hospitals for heart attacks, strokes, car crashes etc.
“This will just further accelerate the exodus to places like Florida or Texas where RE values are cheaper, RE taxes are substantially cheaper and the weather is better (at least winter). There is no unlimited pot of money to tax & people will just leave.”
Properties taxes will go up in Texas. It has a nearly $5 billion hole to fill. No state income tax. Where do you come up with the money? And they won’t legalize pot, apparently.
By the way, Iowa is already out of ICU beds. Cases still rising there. There’s about a 12 day lag time.
If hospitalizations double from today’s 2,000 to 4,000, as is projected to happen right around Thanksgiving, where do you put the extra 2,000 people?
Some states have been flying them to other states. It might be an option to fly some to Chicago as we have space (for now).
US taxpayers are paying to fly patients from rural to cities and from state to state. Socialism!
“In 2018, the US healthcare system was overwhelmed by flu and Italy’s healthcare system collapsed under the strain of flu outbreaks in 2004-2005, 2009-2010 and 2017-2018.
weird how we didn’t shut down the economy back then eh?”
Italy is not relevant to the US. But if you want to talk about the Spanish flu….well…some cities did shut stuff down: https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-pandemic-response-cities
If people would just exercise common sense we wouldn’t need to shut everything down. But apparently people still feel compelled to go to parties and funerals (ironic) and not wear masks and have family gatherings and go to crowded bars so the government needs to take matters into their own hands. It’s all about keeping the hospital system from collapsing. We’ve already got 300,000 excess deaths this year. How many are acceptable? And how much of the economic impact of shutdowns is going to happen regardless of what the government does? All my smart friends aren’t doing anything anyway.
Sonies,
Your long copy/ paste job above was written by a rheumatologist, an actress, a lawyer, and a self employed consultant. I’m not going to put a lot of stock in it, though you do raise an interesting issue about the cycle threshold. But like Sabrina said…just look at hospitalizations. The test results are directional at a minimum.
Sonies,
Wait a second…if people test positive with a high cycle threshold that means at a minimum they were infected at some point, right? So it would still indicate the level of infections out there wouldn’t it?
https://thecritic.co.uk/the-covid-physicians-true-coronavirus-timeline/
Frankly, if it had not been for mainstream media and the government, I would not have even noticed there were a pandemic. I experienced no excessive dying, and no excessive becoming seriously ill. Since January, I have worked in three different general practices across England, in two regions. Accumulatively, they contained over 16,000 patients. Up to my last time of asking in September 2020 there had been many well Covid-19 “swab positives”, and only 5 deaths “with” a Covid-19 “swab positive”. Those 5 deaths were all white, over 60 years, with other co-morbidities.
In the BAME-dominated practice of nearly 6000 where I work with the most deprived, the poor, the homeless, addicts, and migrants, no one was known to have died in association “with” a Covid-19 swab-positive test.
In the practice of 1800 where I worked through the inception and peak of the pandemic, only two people died of anything between January and July. These two were expected deaths of metastatic terminal cancer.
Anyone who dies within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test is a coronavirus death. The nominated standard community test for Covid-19 is an unprecedentedly bad one, far from any gold standard test. Potentially up to 93 percent may be false positive. This will create a synthetic “case-demic” spike because the health secretary pushes poor mass-testing hard and fast. This will be used to frighten those of the public who do not understand statistics, and who understandably instinctively trust their government. Testing simultaneously for more probable causes such as colds, flu and pneumonia will not be done. Everyone else with any other disease can go rot or go private. Children who are almost never at fatal risk (unlike with influenza) will be denied proper social care, an education and freedom of association.
Helmethofer, you truly do live in an alternate universe. I bet in that universe Trump won the election also.
So you seriously think the deaths are all made up? 300,000 more people have died this year so far than normal. No testing required to figure that number out. Basically just stats 101. Why do you think they died?
Sabrina cannot name one noteworthy person who has died from this COVID hoax, other than “Herman Cain”, and she doesn’t have access to his death report.
Now ask yourself how statistically likely this is? Or are famous people magically immune? Hollywood and NYC and Miami are also full of HIV+ pervs who have compromised immune systems, yet none of these famous people have died from COVID either?
PS Did you see how Blago called out the vote fraud? He knows how scummy and immoral liar Democrats are.
https://buffalochronicle.com/2020/11/14/exclusive-how-a-philly-mob-boss-stole-the-election-and-why-he-may-flip-on-joe-biden/
“Did you see how Blago called out the vote fraud?”
No, I did not see the latest desperate cry for attention from that has-been. Do you check in on goatse, too?
“Now ask yourself how statistically likely this is?”
Define noteworthy. There are a quite a few that Wikipedia thinks are noteworthy but they are not names most people would recognize so I’m sure you would reject them. How many noteworthy people are there in the country? Given that less than 0.1% of our population has died from this I’m not surprised that we haven’t heard of more.
You never answered my question. What do you think those 300,000 people died from?
Gary, lack of required care due to fear of Covid? In other words, the lockdown / hysteria resulted in a lot of ancillary deaths.
The other issue is we know a good portion of those number of Covid deaths are inflated. A large number of people are dying WITH Covid, not OF Covid. There have been plenty of cases of people coded as Covid when it clearly was not cause of death.
Russ, 300,000 is a pretty big number to attribute to ancillary deaths. Not to mention that I believe traffic fatalities are down significantly so the excess deaths due to other causes is more than 300K. And then you factor in that 250,000 people had Covid at the time of death. Sure looks like that could be the cause.
The whole with Covid argument is pretty weak in my opinion. If I go into a nursing home and shoot someone in the leg and they subsequently die of a heart attack am I the cause of their death? I think so – even though they had a comorbidity.
Most epidemiologists believe that if anything we are undercounting Covid deaths.
Gary, I just have a healthy dose of skepticism due to the politicization of it, inconsistency of the public policy and constant moving of goal posts. The data is suspect across the board imho regardless of which side you believe… mass hysteria or pandemic apocalypse.
“Properties taxes will go up in Texas. It has a nearly $5 billion hole to fill. No state income tax. Where do you come up with the money? And they won’t legalize pot, apparently.”
What happened to IL (and NJ, CT, NY, etc) cannot happen in TX as the R party is not beholden to public sector unions as the D party is. KY isn’t blue but they aren’t good at math either.
The past 20-25 years the Democratic administrations of these states sold their citizens downriver with their pension projections and under funding them and the credit ratings agencies were complicit in them.
People just aren’t going to move to these places and everyone with an opportunity to leave will. When you’re paying 2% or more in property taxes on what are already high valuations you’re basically renting your home from the government.
And work from home culture means work from anywhere. So how are old industrial legacy governments going to maintain the status quo in the years ahead? It appears they’re going to do so by continuing to raise the taxes of those who remain. Which instead of layoffs in the city of Chicago it’s going to come from an increase in real estate taxes.
Yes they can do bandaid fixes like legalizing pot too, and legalizing sports betting and allowing it via cell phone. And building a casino, and why stop there why not brothels too? But all of these introduce quality of life issues.
It’s a sad situation where a state has been so horribly financially mismanaged they have to resort to allowing people to gamble on sports via their cell phone. As if there won’t be massive social costs that come along with that.
“But like Sabrina said…just look at hospitalizations.”
Another record yesterday at 73,000. Still rising.
Nurses in Pennsylvania threatening to strike over staffing issues. We’ll be seeing more of this going forward. Our medical professionals don’t deserve this because people like sonies and HH think it’s not real. They are working night and day with no relief.
“It’s all about keeping the hospital system from collapsing”.
Yep. This is the most important thing right now. We’re failing though.
Iowa’s governor finally just called for a statewide mask mandate. But it’s too late there.
See this. 6,000 cars and 25,000 people line up for miles for food in Texas.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/thousands-line-up-in-dallas-texas-to-receive-food-ahead-of-thanksgiving-food-bank-donation/
You COVID crazies don’t understand what this is all about. They are going to lock us down, moreso under Bidenism, and wipe out the middle class and crush jobs and incomes. Everyone in the USA will be living like we’re in Buenos Aires under socialism.
bob: NOBODY will want to move out to Montana or these rural Red areas, because we will all be destitute and beholden to the closest food banks, socialized medical care.
Just as nobody in Argentina can afford to live in cool parts of Patagonia and risk health and basic necessities, it will be risky to leave our putrid blue cities for the same reason. Time to speculate on housing near the Greater Chicago Food Depository.
These Leftist types have a downright creepy future for us. Millennials are figuring this out.
See this. 6,000 cars and 25,000 people line up for miles for food in Texas.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/thousands-line-up-in-dallas-texas-to-receive-food-ahead-of-thanksgiving-food-bank-donation/
You COVID crazies don’t understand what this is all about. They are going to lock us down, moreso under Bidenism, and wipe out the middle class and crush jobs and incomes. Everyone in the USA will be living like we’re in Buenos Aires under socialism.
So, your argument here is that this food bank line, today, under a Republican president, in a state where the Republican governor has made it illegal for local authorities to impose restrictions on business, is the fault of “Bidenism” wiping out the middle class and crushing incomes?
https://thehill.com/changing-america/respect/poverty/526146-un-warns-of-famines-of-biblical-proportions-within-the-next
“So, your argument here is that this food bank line, today, under a Republican president, in a state where the Republican governor has made it illegal for local authorities to impose restrictions on business, is the fault of “Bidenism” wiping out the middle class and crushing incomes?”
Yes. Trump is criticized for “not doing enough” by the Sabrina’s of the world. They want more lockdowns and more shutdowns and more losses of jobs and incomes. So, yes under Bidenism this whole dystopia and hoax will get worse. That’s the plan. We’ll get more socialism as the answer to everyone’s bitching.
But there’s no lockdown and no shutdown in Texas, so by your logic, Texas should not be experiencing “losses of jobs and incomes.”
“Sonies,
Wait a second…if people test positive with a high cycle threshold that means at a minimum they were infected at some point, right? So it would still indicate the level of infections out there wouldn’t it?”
It would, but a person showing no symptoms is considered a case, why? Its so sensitive it picks up dead virus… what is the point?
we had a casedemic with H1N1 as well and the Obama administration said to stop testing as its worthless (we’re currently in the same sort of time frame as that) https://i.imgur.com/d4bJzxq.png
less people are dying which is fantastic, this will be over soon especially with vaccines… hopefully… unless our governments get any more stupid, harmful ideas in their heads…
This group is goofy!
Down votes for this comment on Nov 10.
“BTW, received a message from my nephew who is a doctor at the North Shore complex in Evanston and Glenview. His exact message “Media not doing an adequate job of conveying the severity of this wave of COVID.
Stay away from people and wear a mask, it’s getting bad.” Take away whatever message you choose. I’m just attempting to provide local data.”
And, here we are! Duh!
https://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/evanston/ct-evr-covid-evanston-skokie-response-tl-1119-20201117-lktfyhzchbbivakwro3dlxklfu-story.html
“less people are dying which is fantastic, this will be over soon especially with vaccines… hopefully… unless our governments get any more stupid, harmful ideas in their heads…”
Gotta get through the next 6 months. As it stands right now, our hospitals and medical professionals are NOT going to make it through.
And that’s if the vaccines truly do work as well as they’ve said (they haven’t released any scientific data about either of them yet) and they can manage to get 70% of Americans to get the vaccine (you need 70% vaccination to get herd immunity.)
Long road ahead. Economy is going to take another dive in the meantime, unfortunately. The slowdown is already showing up in all the data.
“They want more lockdowns and more shutdowns and more losses of jobs and incomes”
There ARE shutdowns in Texas, HH. What are you even talking about? The governor has left it up to the locals so he doesn’t take any responsibility. It’s why El Paso has restrictions/curfew etc.
Midland Texas is in a really bad place right now. Officials were begging them to put some kind of restrictions on there. They want to mandate masks indoors and fine businesses that don’t comply. Doubtful it will go that far but they’re in really dark times there.
Trump has done nothing. He was golfing all weekend while the number of hospitalizations jumped 25% in just a week. He’s worthless. But thousands more are going to die before he finally shuffles out of office for good.
What a failure of a presidency.
“They are going to lock us down, moreso under Bidenism, and wipe out the middle class and crush jobs and incomes.”
Didn’t this happen under Obama?
Oh wait…
It’s hilarious that people are blaming the DEMOCRATS for wiping out the middle class when it’s the REPUBLICANS who passed the biggest corporate tax cut in history and refuse to raise the federal minimum wage, help the out of work coal and steel workers and are trying to get rid of Obamacare.
So clueless.
By the way HH is in his 70s so he’s been living in this “fear” universe in some far away state for quite some time.
“This group is goofy!”
Don’t pay them any attention Melanie. Lots of covid deniers on here.
October sales data finally will be out from the IAR tomorrow, Dec 1.
I’ll have the market update post up on Wednesday.
Looking for another strong month of sales.