Market Conditions: Is Lakeview’s Market the Slowest Ever?
Crain’s Dennis Rodkin took a look at the sales in various Chicago neighborhoods year-to-date.
It’s not pretty.
Lakeview takes the prize as the neighborhood with the slowest market, as sales are down 12%.
“It’s as slow in Lakeview as I’ve ever seen it,” said Eudice Fogel, a Compass agent who’s been in the Chicago real estate business since the early 1980s.
Home sales in Lakeview are down nearly 12 percent so far this year, according to end-of-September data released last week by the Chicago Association of Realtors and Showing Time. That’s compared to a citywide sales drop of 7 percent in the first nine months of the year.
Why is Lakeview seeing the brunt of the slowdown?
It’s been THE neighborhood of choice for years with Wrigley Field, the restaurants, good public transportation and schools.
Has something changed?
In the first few optimistic years after the last recession, “there was a ridiculous number of teardowns,” said Stephen Hnatow, a Keller Williams agent who focuses on the neighborhood. Builders hoping to meet demand for new-construction homes in old-line neighborhoods replaced more than 300 older homes with new houses in five years, Crain’s reported in 2016. Commercial corridors such as Southport Avenue boomed hand in hand with the residential offerings.
A seemingly inevitable result, Hnatow said, is that “prices escalated and escalated.” Buildable lots that went for around $500,000 in 2013 were at $800,000 five years later, he said.
Not every neighborhood is seeing a decline in sales.
Lincoln Park remains above the fray with positive 2019 sales. As does Logan Square.
Sales are up in a couple affluent North Side markets: Lincoln Park (4.9 percent) and Logan Square (1 percent). In West Ridge, sales are flat this year. And in several neighborhoods, sales are down but not as steeply as in Lakeview: West Town (2.7 percent), North Center (5.6 percent), Lincoln Square (8.8 percent) and Avondale (9.6 percent). The only place where the drop-off is steeper is the Near North Side, whose Gold Coast mansions have struggled to sell, and even those that sell are moving faster than last year, unlike in Lakeview.
If this sales decline trend continues through the end of the year, this will be the first year we’ve seen a sales decline since the bottom of the bust.
With mortgage rates near record lows, is this year’s slowdown just the market catching its breath?
Or will buyers now be smelling blood and looking for deals?
In a soft housing market, Lakeview is really soft [Crain’s Chicago Business, by Dennis Rodkin, October 22, 2019]
I can think of a few possible reasons, but this is just speculation:
1. Much of the housing stock was built in the 90s and early 2000s on the cheap. These split block palaces are no longer new and not aging well
2. Taxes and crime, like much of the city they are up
3. A lot of potential LV residents might be the ones filling up all of the new rental buildings closer to downtown
4. Unless you dig the Wrigleyville scene, it really doesn’t seem as happening as some other areas that attract a similar demographic
I think the biggest issues are:
1) Too many $1M+ luxury homes, not enough rich ppl to buy them.
2) Property taxes increasing with no end in sight….with democrats pandering to unions and their money demands.
3) Why pay so much of #1 & #2 when there is so much crime around.
Based on the above, I am now thinking this might be a good time to scoop up some cheap large North Suburban homes as migration patterns may again change back to the burbs over the next 10-20 years.
Just basing this on my own network of friends (families mostly in their late 30’s to mid-40’s), I don’t know anyone that has moved to Lakeview or included it on their search for a new home. Aside from Sid V’s comments, the cool factor just isn’t there.
“2) Property taxes increasing with no end in sight….with democrats pandering to unions and their money demands.”
I have talked to builders of single family homes in the $1M+ range and most have indicated the cap on SALT deductions is have a dramatically larger effect on buyer’s reluctance to purchase those homes (especially those moving up from smaller homes) than property taxes in Chicago.
“Based on the above, I am now thinking this might be a good time to scoop up some cheap large North Suburban homes as migration patterns may again change back to the burbs over the next 10-20 years.”
If your timeline for a return on those houses is 10-20 years how could you possibly think you’d come out ahead given the even larger property tax bills those types of houses command in the suburbs? You’d have 10-20 years of tax payments and then have to update the house before selling it. Seems like a terrible investment.
“It’s as slow in Lakeview as I’ve ever seen it,”
Well, it was clearly worse in the 2009 – 2013 timeframe.
They are still building $2 MM new SFHs there and selling them. But the volume has dropped off quite a bit in the last 2 years and the market times have really skyrocketed.
They cut back on new condo sales but it’s back to where it was 3 years ago.
I just assume that it’s because there are other more competitive areas of the city with better values. I live in East Village/ West Town. Drove downtown late last night so not much traffic but transit time each way was like 10 minutes.
Also, a lot of dated finishes in Lake View that sellers have trouble accepting as requiring a discount.
I actually just moved to Winnetka (from East Lakeview, coincidentally). My wife and I are 35. We considered staying in the city but schools and SFH pricing in prime areas were the primary factors in moving to the North Shore. We purchased a 3000sq ft home 2 blocks from the lake and 2 blocks from the train for 25% less than the home sold for in 2007, with a tax bill under $20k, and a purchase price under $1mm. My commute home is about the same as my commute home to ELV was. This is purely anecdotal but the market in Winnetka especially (relative to other New Trier district towns) seemed, dare I say, “hot” the past few months. We lost out on one house to a bidding war. Open houses were well attended and all potential buyers were in their 30s, usually with an infant or toddler in tow. While I dont expect to make significant returns on any Chicago area real estate given the fiscal and tax issues of the state, I think millenials are and will migrate to commuter suburbs with excellent schools. My age group as a whole is having kids later in life than prior generations and that has prolonged their stay in cities relative to prior generations. The North Shore real estate market got decimated during the recession and hasnt fully bounced back. There is relative value up there right now versus a green zone SFH. The fact of the matter is that the tax advantage the North Side of the city had versus the North Shore in terms of taxes has been much eroded over the last several years.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/29/millennials-are-fleeing-big-cities-for-the-suburbs.html
I think Lakeview isn’t trendy anymore. Combine that with dated inventory and you got low sales volumes.
The newest crop of Chad/Trixies seem to care more about Bucktown, Fulton Market, West Loop, etc.
It isn’t like LV will turn into Englewood, but the neighborhood seems to have lost some luster imho.
when I was selling my house in the near north side, people were cross shopping with the west loop, I can imagine most people wouldn’t even have lakeview on their shopping list if the west loop was the hottest neighborhood, they both have totally different vibes
and yes the SALT cap is having a huge effect on the upper end of the market, even though most folks’ overall taxes in that bracket actually went down
“If your timeline for a return on those houses is 10-20 years how could you possibly think you’d come out ahead given the even larger property tax bills those types of houses command in the suburbs? You’d have 10-20 years of tax payments and then have to update the house before selling it. Seems like a terrible investment.”
You have 10-20 years of tax payments regardless. If you rent, it is part of your rent payment. Your thesis is wrong: housing should not be looked at as an investment or something that would let you come out ahead. Leasing and owning are types of ownership, and costs should be compared with each other given individual time frames. You have to live somewhere.
In addition to many valid points made by others, I think it largely boils down to uncertainty:
-uncertainty about property taxes
-uncertainty about political climate (the SALT tax being considered by many a punishment for more affluent / democratic areas)
-Our unpredictable leadership may also be making the US a less favorable investment area for foreigners who definitely buy US real estate because it was generally perceived as a safe way to park some money someplace without eroding the principal…maybe no so true anymore.
-CPS certainly aren’t helping. To really want to be in a good CPS school district because you cannot afford private school kinda also means you cannot afford a good CPS district since your kid may become a pawn and you many NEED private school.
-We have a flat to slightly inverted yield curve – – a leading indicator of an impending recession since the 1950s.
Now, I for one think a cap on mortgage interest deductions is a pretty good idea. The fed gov’t has subsidized home ownership enough. I am always amazed by the “Jennys” of the world who speak out against affordable / subsidized housing but god forbid you limit their ability to get a financial break by virtue of home ownership. That said, the SALT cap isn’t the way to go about it because it hurts people in urban areas more than in rural areas. Kinda like the electoral college.
As someone who was looking and bought a SFH a few years ago –
At the time I was shocked when people laughed me off this website when I said my goal was a newer SFH in the Lakeview area, just east of ashland if possible, for under 1.5 M. I also didn’t get it, at all. Lakeview is a nice enough area, but most of east Lakeview along broadway down from Belmont is kind of grimey, wrigleyville sucks, boys town is a s*itshow. The *new* factor was completely being eaten up by Roscoe village at the time. A LOT of Lakeview is still strip malls and kinda subpar establishments. I totally see why it lost it’s luster.
I ended up buying closer to ashland anyways, but more south in what realtors now dub as ‘west Lincoln park’. While certain blocks in our neighborhood aren’t glamorous either, seems like anything new sells relatively quickly.
* I will say that a exception seems to be the stretch of southport starting at Addison and going south. Any new SFH within walking distance of there seems to still command price ranges closer to 2 m.
One thing to take into consideration why Lakeview and to a degree Lincoln Park haven’t done much in terms of price growth is the Neighborhood is aging. The housing stock and residents are fervent NIMBYs who won’t allow any new high rises into the neighborhood without a massive fight. Just look at the hospital rebuild. The catering Alderman Michelle Smith did to NIMBYs was disgusting. As a result, there are feted residents in the area than 10 years ago (mansions replacing 3 flats). Virtually all 20 somethings look elsewhere to hoods where high rises have been built (River North, West Loop, South Loop, Streeterville, etc). Being rabid NIMBYs has hurt their neighborhood. It’s dying.
“You have 10-20 years of tax payments regardless. If you rent, it is part of your rent payment. Your thesis is wrong: housing should not be looked at as an investment or something that would let you come out ahead. Leasing and owning are types of ownership, and costs should be compared with each other given individual time frames. You have to live somewhere.”
I agree with you. My post was in response to an earlier post saying:
“Based on the above, I am now thinking this might be a good time to scoop up some cheap large North Suburban homes as migration patterns may again change back to the burbs over the next 10-20 years.”
To me, “scoop up some cheap large North Suburban homes” was indicating that the initial poster wanted to buy several of them as investments and to bank on “migration patterns” 10-20 years down the road. Given that his initial criticism was Chicago property taxes, it seemed necessary to point out the problem with that investment idea in light of his dislike of property taxes.
“One thing to take into consideration why Lakeview and to a degree Lincoln Park haven’t done much in terms of price growth is the Neighborhood is aging. ”
uh, according to the article…”The median sale price of Lakeview homes has also declined this year: For single-family homes, it’s down 9.4 percent, to $1.26 million”…
Not sure how much price growth you’re supposed to get when homes already cost $1.26 million; meanwhile, half that neighborhood eventually ends up moving to Glenview anyways.
“The median sale price of Lakeview homes has also declined this year: For single-family homes, it’s down 9.4 percent, to $1.26 million”
that’s consistent with a softening of teardown values by ~$100k. Looks like in the past year the average is about $800, and in the year before that it was about $900–I used multi-families and ‘land’ shown in Redfin, capped at $2m (to exclude larger apartment buildings) as a proxy.
So, your median LV SFH is still a ~$450k structure, it’s just that the dirt is worth $800k, rather than $900k. Seems pretty consistent with what I would expect. Leaves a good deal of downside, imo, like 20-25% more.
“half that neighborhood eventually ends up moving to Glenview anyways.”
HD, you need to get back into 2019. It’s like you’re living 10 years ago.
Here’s a news flash: people with kids AREN’T LEAVING CHICAGO. They are, gasp, staying in the city. They are living the urban life. It’s why schools in Lincoln Park are over crowded.
Thanks to the financial crisis, and people getting stuck in their homes, many people who otherwise would have sold and moved to the suburbs couldn’t. So they didn’t. They stayed. The schools improved. And now younger couples see that it’s not a big deal to have your kid go to Bell or whatnot. And even the high schools are good and your kid can get into Northwestern from Lincoln Park High School.
This is why property values in the suburbs are crashing. Baby boomers want to sell and retire to Florida. But Millennials don’t want to live out in Naperville. They don’t even want to live in Hinsdale or Glencoe. Even with those top schools.
It’s a whole new world out there. The city is back in a big, big way.
“The catering Alderman Michelle Smith did to NIMBYs was disgusting.”
But Lincoln Park prices are actually UP this year. It’s only Lakeview that is down and she’s not the alderman there.
But I agree with you that Lincoln Park’s population IS, for the most part, older. But now with those two new high rises at the hospital, it should bring in a bunch of younger renters.
“I think Lakeview isn’t trendy anymore. Combine that with dated inventory and you got low sales volumes.”
Could be. The new construction there has mostly focused on single family homes and the same, boring 6 flat luxury builds and now there are dozens of those around the neighborhood.
I can’t remember a “cool” new midrise that has been built there in a long while.
“We purchased a 3000sq ft home 2 blocks from the lake and 2 blocks from the train for 25% less than the home sold for in 2007, with a tax bill under $20k, and a purchase price under $1mm.”
Thanks jfmiii for your take.
Basically, you’re priced out of the “good” parts of the city (i.e. north side) with the best primary schools and the north shore is on sale so why not go there?
There are many lovely properties and they are selling for steep discounts.
I mean, to get a home for 25% under the 2007 price is pretty shocking. You’re not going to find that in the hot Chicago neighborhoods, obviously.
Is it baby boomers selling then?
How updated are the homes? One problem I’ve seen when looking out there is that most properties seem to need updating which is a real drag.
“Well, it was clearly worse in the 2009 – 2013 timeframe.”
That’s not what she said Gary. She’s been an agent since the 1980s. She doesn’t give stats, so it’s just her opinion, of course.
But there is definitely a slowness that hasn’t been seen in at least 7 years. Since the bottom of the market.
Many of the properties I’ve cribbed on lately are still sitting on the market. I will have to do some updates on them next week.
Being on the market for a year isn’t unusual now and not just in Lakeview. I just saw a loft sell near Fulton Market that had been listed for a year. Yikes.
Sellers are WAY too high. The market has changed even in the hot neighborhoods.
1) Too many $1M+ luxury homes, not enough rich ppl to buy them.
For sure. But that’s true all over the city.
But it doesn’t explain why the 2/2 $500,000 loft is sitting there for months.
“Much of the housing stock was built in the 90s and early 2000s on the cheap. These split block palaces are no longer new and not aging well”
Good point Sid V.
I wonder how many might need work done? In some cases it’s now 20 years. Things need to be replaced and repaired.
“Here’s a news flash: people with kids AREN’T LEAVING CHICAGO. They are, gasp, staying in the city. They are living the urban life. It’s why schools in Lincoln Park are over crowded.”
Sabrina, as usual, the truth is somewhere in the middle, and you are missing a crucial point: people follow jobs. While people with families I work with in the burbs have absolutely no desire to work in the city, send their kids to CPS, and do a reverse commute, they also work in the burbs. People who work in the city would have different priorities, and that’s why they are staying in the city.
But the other part that you missed is remote work that really took off in the last five years or so. You can live in Kenosha, work from home 3 days of week, and commute downtown 2 days a week and live in a house with a backyard. Crammed 2/2 for $400 is for some, but not for everyone.
“Here’s a news flash: people with kids AREN’T LEAVING CHICAGO. They are, gasp, staying in the city. They are living the urban life. It’s why schools in Lincoln Park are over crowded. ”
Uh, the plural of anecdote is data, and just as jfmiii and myself see on a daily basis, many of the new buyers, at least the commuter suburbs (and particularly glenview!) are former city residents with kids.
And your point seems to conflict with actual data, that shows the CPS had 425,000 students just a little more than a decade ago and only 370,000 now. You can find charts online showing this, you could easily confuse the chart with the stock market crash of 1929. And this strike isn’t helping either.
Mike HG on October 24th, 2019 at 1:52 pm
Being rabid NIMBYs has hurt their neighborhood. It’s dying.
Exactly, and the same thing is happening on the Northwest side (though our NIMBY’s aren’t as rich). But hey, at least they’ve preserved the “neighborhood character”! lol
This is why we need to do what Minneapolis did and ban single family zoning outright. Other blue states/progressive cities are following that path as well. Zoning today might as well be modern redlining, and “preserving neighborhood character” is codified classism that, unfortunately, seems like one of the only things today that transcends political partisanship.
Also, take me as you “market.” We lived in the city and moved to the suburbs. So did at least 5-6 families I work with. Minority? Maybe, but definitely does not support your point that everyone is moving to the city.
And now that property tax has caught up with the burbs, city leaving is a little bit less appealing.
As someone that lived off Southport for the past 7 years, I can say with certainty the neighborhood is way nicer and trendier than it was when I moved here. Southport is now a high end shopping and dining destination. Wrigleyville was a dump 5 years ago and now has many more amenities thanks to the recent development. Add in the fact that the Cubs are good and Wrigley holds concerts both inside and outside the stadium not to mention farmers markets, movie nights, Christmas mart etc.
The Belmont-Lincoln intersection is better with Whole Foods and the Paulina stop area is greatly improved.
I think the best point made for the lack of demand in Lakeview is that there are so many new neighborhoods that compete for residents which weren’t on peoples radar 10 years ago. Also, when I graduated college everyone my age moved to Lakeview, we found a cheap apartment in a 3-flat to rent. Now it seems like post college grads are being lured by the high amenity high rises downtown (and i don’t blame them).
“Zoning today might as well be modern redlining, and “preserving neighborhood character” is codified classism that, unfortunately, seems like one of the only things today that transcends political partisanship.”
This is the dumbest thing I ever heard it my life. It gets parroted all over vox and huffpo and it has no basis in reality. Neighborhoods change all the time, between classes and races, and to blame zoning of all things is pretty naive. The suburbs these days are full of single family homes and are more diverse than the city which is a segregated nightmare. Drive around Niles or Morton Grove or Elgin or countless other places outside of the city limits and you’ll see obvious evidence that the zoning code isn’t the cause of Chicago’s ills. To call it modern redlining ignores obvious evidence to the contrary. Redling was real and contributed to inequality – the single family home zoning code does not.
“This is why we need to do what Minneapolis did and ban single family zoning outright. Other blue states/progressive cities are following that path as well. Zoning today might as well be modern redlining, and “preserving neighborhood character” is codified classism that, unfortunately, seems like one of the only things today that transcends political partisanship.”
its that way for a reason… nearly everyone in this town that is a decision maker is a hypocritical limousine liberal
Its not “Codified Classism”. Wrt MPLS, the city has really shitty mass transit that they’re just starting to address that would support increased housing density.
If the city wasn’t run by morons, they’d be pushing for higher density along Hiawatha (and other LTR corridors) – not the crappy stick built 5 story apt buildings.
HD, to say that single family zoning has no bearing or contribution to current inequality today is the dumbest thing I ever heard. There is so much evidence to this which is why many states and cities are considering fixes to their zoning law, or have already taken action. I won’t say it’s the magic fix to all our ills, but it’s a major first step.
“Neighborhoods change all the time” YES, and many stagnate just as well, a regression to that can be considered “change” too, right? Exclusionary zoning plays a major role in restricting supply and changing the affordability of areas that negatively affect where and how people live. (Increased outward migration leading to more sprawl and infrastructure inefficiency).
“Basically, you’re priced out of the “good” parts of the city (i.e. north side) with the best primary schools and the north shore is on sale so why not go there?
There are many lovely properties and they are selling for steep discounts.
I mean, to get a home for 25% under the 2007 price is pretty shocking. You’re not going to find that in the hot Chicago neighborhoods, obviously.
Is it baby boomers selling then?
How updated are the homes? One problem I’ve seen when looking out there is that most properties seem to need updating which is a real drag.”
If we had stayed in the city, we wanted a SFH in the DePaul area. You certainly cannot get that for under $1mm. It came down to a townhouse in Lincoln Park, a smaller SFH in WP/Bucktown, or Winnetka. We were shocked to get the home we got, in East Winnetka, for the price we got it at. Our home is very walkable to the train, lake, and numerous dining/retail options. The primary school for our neighborhood is also a 5 minute walk. Is it updated with the latest and greatest marble/quartz/etc? No, but it had an addition put on in 2004 that included a large master bath. The kitchen and other bathrooms could use aesthetic refreshes but nothing major.
On the North Shore, yes, Boomers are selling. Every home we looked at was being sold by a Boomer but every buyer we saw in the open houses were mid-30s couples from the city. The under $1mm market in Winnetka and Wilmette is “busy,” at least according to my, albeit anecdotal, experience. Buyers dont want a house that needs a ton of work. If a home is under $1mm, close to the train with a reasonable commute into the Loop, WITH REASONABLE TAXES, and doesnt need a lot of work, there is a good amount of demand, especially in the last few months. I personally have 5 friends who moved from the city to the NS within the past year all looking at sub-$1mm properties and I know several more who are looking. The $1.2-1.5mm price segment is very slow, IMO, because of the 25-30k tax bill that comes with it. Nice homes under $1mm but with large tax assessments sit. I know that we wouldnt bid on one home in particular that was under $1mm because it carried a tax bill of $25k and though it should have been $7k less, I had no guarantee it would be assessed correctly after a sale.
The death of the suburbs has been extolled for some time and I think as Millenials start families, the premier commuter suburbs will turn around. IMO, the New Trier school district offers a lot of value today versus LP/LV/WP/Bucktown for your upper-middle class young family looking to move out of their condo.
“Basically, you’re priced out of the “good” parts of the city (i.e. north side) with the best primary schools and the north shore is on sale so why not go there?”
Sabrina, we are looking up there too. We were the “never leaving the city” types but the prices are simply over inflated on the northside, by a lot. What do get anymore? No tax benefit, shitty public sector unions, this strike is like the last and final straw for a lot of us. Yes the north shore is on fire sale right now but Chicago’s northside is a rip off. The city is increasingly single, old or gay and the children growth seems to be in hot burbs again. It will reach some sort of equilibrium but it’s clear to this poster which way the winds are shifting.
FYI this is marko not marco
“the plural of anecdote is data”
The old saw goes …is NOT data. It is firmly established as “anecdata”.
“CPS had 425,000 students just a little more than a decade ago and only 370,000 now”
And about 125% of that reduction has been in Af-Am kids. Many of whom were/would have been MC/MC+, but maybe 10 of whom moved to Glenview.
“This is the dumbest thing I ever heard it my life.”
It’s not the dumbest thing you’ve read on CC this week, HD.
That would be that Saudi Arabia provides a better quality of life for typical women than the US does.
Sabrina,
I’d have 100 % agreed with you 5-10 years ago about families staying in the city, as we did (and continue to), but we are losing a LOT of friends to Naperville, south Barrington, Hinsdale, etc…
Main reasons tend to be rising taxes, private school tuition / crap CPS schools, safety, traffic, noise etc etc…We are still sticking it out .
“We were the “never leaving the city” types but the prices are simply over inflated on the northside, by a lot.”
If we were looking today (with the relative same financial and job-future situation we had when we bought, ~20 years ago), we would be hard pressed to stay in the city. What we paid, +CPI, would be $900k-1m today, and the options in the city (for those who are set on SFH) are pretty crap, and the property taxes are creeping toward relative parity.
And that is with the city, truly, being better in most ways (other than fiscally) than it has been in 50+ years.
“safety, traffic, noise”
These are excuses.
The others are real reasons.
“HD, to say that single family zoning has no bearing or contribution to current inequality today is the dumbest thing I ever heard. ”
Yet, it flies it the face of common sense, where the far less segregated and far more diverse suburbs have lots of low density housing. But the same crowd that wants to nationalize the utility companies to force ‘progressive’ utility rates on users also think that getting rid of single family housing is going to somehow else their problems. All it will do is drive out of the city residents who want to live in lower density housing.
But if that’s your goal, go for it. Because, quite literally, there is no one coming to replace them, as the city continues to lose people and empty out.
Kass had an article the other day about a world with no republicans, and said that all of Chicago’s problems are entirely Democrat created. All of them. They can’t blame Republicans for any of it. And it’s a fricken about mess.
The irony is that people like you have good intentions but really really stupid ideas that destroy everything they touch.
“RIz on October 25th, 2019 at 11:54 am
Sabrina,
I’d have 100 % agreed with you 5-10 years ago about families staying in the city, as we did (and continue to), but we are losing a LOT of friends to Naperville, south Barrington, Hinsdale, etc…
Main reasons tend to be rising taxes, private school tuition / crap CPS schools, safety, traffic, noise etc etc…We are still sticking it out .”
So, everyone in your social group around you is fleeing, and yet, in your infinite wisdom, you’re going to stay, despite the warnings? You truly make me question your judgment. My grandmother left Chicago in 1961 and moved to the suburbs for the exact same reasons you said. It’s almost 60 years later and literally nothing has changed, nothing. Heck, you could go back 100 years, when the CTU was founded as an honest to goodness socialist organization – that was their principals then – and nothing has changed.
BUt like Sabrina says, this time it’s different.
So…I guess the “cachet” of living within walking distance of the World Champion Cubs is no longer a “thing” among potential Lakeview residents.
Maybe if Grampa Rossy brings another Series title to the north side, things will change?
And I was under the impression that the LV schools were actually a plus, especially Nettlehorst and the rapidly improving Lake View High.
“And I was under the impression that the LV schools were actually a plus, especially Nettlehorst and the rapidly improving Lake View High.”
The schools are the draw, in fact I think the Cubs and Wrigley may be an offsetting deterrent at this point. Who want to be near that shit show except some single 25 year old bro from the greater midwest?
I’m cracking up at the NIMBY comments since it was 60’s NIMBY’s who got 4+1 construction banned or stopped who made the neighborhood as desirable as it was in recent years – it made . Look at the areas where they built more of them like Uptown or Rogers Park – not as nice. Though they generally have more generous units than new construction does.
Oops, I mean to say lack of 4+1 construction made the area more attractive with better housing stock in the 80’s when the area started to gentrify.
Anyone thinking income inequality is what’s driving these zoning decisions isn’t living in reality.
It’s all about property tax $
Marko – I am a sis, not a bro, have not seen age 25 for a few decades, and am a city dweller…and believe me, if I had the means I would gladly live in my old neighborhood (just a couple blocks from Wrigley) again!
My years in Wrigleyville were spent mostly in a 4+1 apartment. It provided a heated living space, on-site laundry and parking, and functional elevators for a very affordable price. That same building now charges over 5 times what I paid in the 80’s.
There are good and bad 4+1’s, just as there are good and bad hirises and good and bad 2-flats. Mine was clean and well-run with good tenants. On the other hand, the one where a friend lived had constant problems thanks to bad management and poor tenant screening. She ended up in a similar building on the far northwest side.
The city vs suburb debate that rages on this site is very strange… certainly there are many people who end up moving to the suburbs, but the point is that nowadays people have a choice. Raising your kids in the city is a great option for many (including my family). This isn’t the 80s or 90s when middle class folk felt like they had no choice but to leave. If you like the suburbs and you find a good deal in Winnetka, good for you! But not everyone wants to live in the suburbs. Some people on this site just seem to hate the city of Chicago because of politics or something.
“but the point is that nowadays people have a choice.”
Literally millions of people have chosen to stay and raise their children in chicago since my grandmother left. But they willingly chose to let their children attend schools where the 8th graders read at a 3rd grade level, and the 12th graders (if they it that far) read at an 8th grade level, across almost the entire CPS system. Sure, it’s a choice to stay in the Chicago, but a really, really foolish one…
“Some people on this site just seem to hate the city of Chicago because of politics or something.”
I lived in Chicago half my life and i’m well into my 40’s now. It was no big deal living among Democrats as a republican. There were closet conservatives everywhere and I could get along with anyone; none of them ever thought to vote because their vote didn’t count. But the last 6 years so since I moved on from Chicago have been the best decision I ever made, as I watch the city rapidly spiral downward in a cesspool of crime and irresponsible politics. chicago will never become detriot, but we are watching it turn into detriots wealther cousin, with the city’s handful of wealthier areas still remaining inside the city limits rather than fleeing for the suburbs. mark my words though lightfoot is merely the next step towards baltimore and detroit and cleveland. Maybe someday our river will start on fire too.
“you’re going to stay, despite the warnings? You truly make me question your judgment. My grandmother left Chicago in 1961 and moved to the suburbs for the exact same reasons you said. It’s almost 60 years later and literally nothing has changed, nothing. Heck, you could go back 100 years, when the CTU was founded as an honest to goodness socialist organization – that was their principals then – and nothing has changed.
BUt like Sabrina says, this time it’s different.”
HD, has anyone just straight up told you, you’re a ‘hater’? And probably a racist. I don’t actually give a flying F. But you’re like that annoying friend we all have that is dissatisfied with his middle class life and makes it a point to be contrarion to everyone else..
It gets old man.
Also, @HD –
Should we all move to Long Grove?
Quick. Tell me where the closest Papa John’s is.
If you all would stop investing so much in Chicago real estate beyond what you need to invest in a safe neighborhood with a reasonable commute to work, and getting the vapours about your investments, then this board would be dead.
Right Z?
“Literally millions of people have chosen to stay and raise their children in chicago since my grandmother left. But they willingly chose to let their children attend schools where the 8th graders read at a 3rd grade level, and the 12th graders (if they it that far) read at an 8th grade level, across almost the entire CPS system. Sure, it’s a choice to stay in the Chicago, but a really, really foolish one…”
If your household has 2 professional incomes it is very doable to own a home on the North Side and give your kids a good education at public schools. I did it and so did every kid my son went to school with. Compare this to SF or NYC where even with 2 incomes you are literally never going to be able to own and the school system in NYC is way more fubar than Chicago’s. And comparing Chicago to Detroit or Cleveland is just trolling. And crime, what the hell are you on about? We’re not talking about Garfield Park, dude.
The comments from that poster are getting more extreme all the time. He seems to have adopted the popular right-wing anti-Chicago theme. I’d suggest ignoring. He’s just repeating what they say on Fox News.
It’s sad to see because 8 or 9 years ago he often had thoughtful and well-reasoned observations to make here. The last four years not so much. The hatred that’s infested the right wing has become far more feverish recently and it’s scary to see the impact on once rational people.
“And probably a racist.”
Ah, of course, the racist calls his enemy a racist: accuse the other of being what you are. Does calling someone a racist even mean anything anymore?
“He seems to have adopted the popular right-wing anti-Chicago theme.”
This is how the rest of the country sees Chicago. Stop drinking the kool-aid and visit the rest of the state once in a while. There’s a whole world out there, and, Chicago isn’t much appreciated.
“But you’re like that annoying friend we all have that is dissatisfied with his middle class life and makes it a point to be contrarion to everyone else..”
Why don’t you just straight up call me a ‘deplorable’? Please Riz, do it, do it. Then I’ll know how you really feel about white people….
“This is how the rest of the country sees Chicago.”
No they don’t. Quit watching Fox.
Chicago set a record for tourism last year. They are coming in droves.
And what is “the rest of the state?” Peoria? We stole a bunch of their high paying jobs in the last year. I was talking with a woman who has lived there for 30 years recently. She said high end home prices have fallen because the Caterpillar executives all left for Deerfield and you can’t replace those jobs there.
That being said, in large parts of the state, agriculture is still #1 and Chicago doesn’t compete as much in that area so Illinois is actually a nice combination of a big industrial/tech/medical powerhouse area with agriculture boosting the rest of the state. And Illinois is number one in the country in soybeans.
“It’s almost 60 years later and literally nothing has changed, nothing.”
Everything has changed.
Literally…everything.
The city is richer than it has ever been. The suburbs are where the poverty is on the rise. And the best schools in the state are, gasp, in the city of Chicago (yes, I would argue North Park Prep is better than New Trier or Hinsdale Central.)
“with the city’s handful of wealthier areas still remaining inside the city limits rather than fleeing for the suburbs.”
They are building $600,000 new construction homes in Woodlawn right now.
Is that one of the “handful of wealthier areas”?
I do think a lot of people are being priced out and that the middle class is being pushed out. Look at Irving Park, a once steady middle class neighborhood. Homes are $600,000 there too. That is certainly not a middle class price point, even with record low mortgage rates.
:I’d have 100 % agreed with you 5-10 years ago about families staying in the city, as we did (and continue to), but we are losing a LOT of friends to Naperville, south Barrington, Hinsdale, etc…”
Must only be your friends HD because the housing markets in those cities are awful. Prices keep declining. Too many mansions. High inventory. Hard to believe but we’ve also seen the same thing on the North Shore which has those fabulous schools.
But Millennials would rather buy in Irving Park than Naperville.
“private school tuition / crap CPS schools,”
Riz, were they living in areas without good local schools?
Or were their kids not getting into magnet schools?
I think high school is key. I don’t understand why you’d pay for private school if you lived near the good north side primary schools. If your kid doesn’t get into one of the better high schools, then it could be an issue.
Remember the article the Reader did like 5 to 8 years ago about why people were leaving Chicago for the suburbs? One of the big reasons was they were tired of trying to get their kids into Park District programs that were overcrowded. One was tired of driving their kids halfway across the city to attend the magnet school. The other got more for their money in the suburbs.
You’d get even MORE now.
And the suburban schools have more services. If you have a child with special needs, they have counselors, nurses etc. I would have moved to the suburbs if I needed those services for my child.
“That would be that Saudi Arabia provides a better quality of life for typical women than the US does.”
I never said that. But if you believe it anon(tfo), that’s up to you. The Saudis standard of living, which has nothing to do with political rights by the way, is on par with most western countries.
“If we had stayed in the city, we wanted a SFH in the DePaul area. You certainly cannot get that for under $1mm. It came down to a townhouse in Lincoln Park, a smaller SFH in WP/Bucktown, or Winnetka.”
Thanks for sharing your own personal story jfmiii.
I agree that getting a SFH under $1 million is tough in many parts of the desirable north side. Even Irving Park homes are priced much higher than just 5 or 10 years ago.
And not everyone wants a townhome.
I don’t blame you for choosing to jump to the suburbs. But that really does say it all that the suburbs are now considerably cheaper than the city. Tells you how much the city is booming. But Chicago could see an affordability crisis the same way as the city.
The oldest Millennials are now 39. They should have already started families a while ago. Oldest GenZ is now 22 or 23. They are next. But unlike 15 years ago when you could buy an affordable 1-bedroom or 2-bedroom condo and then move up the property ladder, they are priced out and so are just continuing to rent.
How will that impact home buying in the future? We’ll see.
HD,
don’t be silly. I have nothing against white people (also, is deplorable a anti white slur? I don’t get it. ) –
I’m just against the pro-white ‘lets keep America ‘america’ (aka white) trump rhetoric I see way too much of these days.
You’d be surprised but I’m surprisingly conservative on a lot of issues, but some of your points are just so so narrow man, and simply make no sense – like saying nothing has changed since 1961 when your grandma or whoever left. It makes no sense and just sounds ignorant and very rush Limbaugh-ish, if you know who that is.
Oh, and having just returned from a family trip to London – if you’re part of the camp that thinks america is losing it’s ‘white/christian’ population – DEFINITELY don’t go to London. You won’t like what you see.
Ugh. If someone wants a good house for an affordable price, have you considered looking south of Roosevelt? There’s a whole world of the South Side that’s making a remarkable comeback, even though many areas are still very distressed. Here in McKinley Park, we have burgeoning home prices (new SFHs now coasting past $500K) and all kinds of infill development with new homes, townhomes, etc. Our neighborhood schools (both CPS and charter) are on a major upswing due to parental involvement and reinvestment. Our experience with CPS so far has been very, very good, and we plan to have our son stay in CPS through high school.
People will continue to move to the suburbs. Vast majority of people can’t afford $1 million houses particularly if you also need to pay for private schools and/or daycare.
Most of the folks I see buying houses in the greenzone neighborhoods are making north of $400k. In addition, parental help / inheritances are not that uncommon.
I feel like you sacrifice a lot to live in the city with kids and people delude themselves trying to be trendy that there is some extra amount of “culture” or amenities that are not available elsewhere.
Chicago has some of the best suburban living I’ve seen since we have actual towns with shopping and public transportation. Metro area Chicago burbs aren’t the typical strip mall sprawl hell found in most of the country.
“standard of living, which has nothing to do with political rights by the way”
GTFOOH. It has *everything* to do with political rights.
You sound like a Fox Business Channel commentator when you say shit like that. You’re mainstreaming fascism.
“North Park Prep”
Funny.
Anyway, we have *no idea* whether it is better or not, as it is self-selecting.
If you had a selective enrollment HS that drew from the HS districts of Evanston, New Trier, Niles, Maine and Glenbrook, and only let in the top 300 scoring kids every year, and designed a curriculum to suit the student body, then there would be a reasonable comparison. Assuming similar-ish results, I would certainly think of NSCP as the “better” school, because of the difference in the economics of the districts, but it’s not like NSCP is much less white than that hypothetical north shore HS would be.
New Trier had an average ACT score of 28.7 vs Northside Prep’s 30. NT is 1000 kids/class. A full third of the class scored greater than or equal to 31 and 10% of the class was in the top 1% of the nation (score of >34). If NT wasnt open enrollment and was able to cherry pick the top 300 kids like Payton and Northside, it obviously would have had a higher average ACT score than either.
If this slowdown was caused by an exodus to the suburbs then we should have seen weakness in LP and other areas. Instead its just a price vs value adjustment. Despite its name the majority of Lakeview isn’t close to the lake. Its also pretty far from the loop (25-30 min). Once you realize that, there are many other areas with similar characteristics that are cheaper. LV wins out on schools vs those hoods though but as more people move to those alternative their schools will also get better. I generally look at the spread between LV and LP – for the last few years there wasn’t much of a delta between the two. Now LP is stable and LV is moving a bit lower – just seems like a natural adjustment that we are probably reading too much into.
“But there is definitely a slowness that hasn’t been seen in at least 7 years. Since the bottom of the market.
Many of the properties I’ve cribbed on lately are still sitting on the market…
Being on the market for a year isn’t unusual now and not just in Lakeview. I just saw a loft sell near Fulton Market that had been listed for a year.”
That’s all anecdata. Look at the graphs. It’s not that bad. Sure market times are up in the last couple of years but not really all that different than 6 years ago and definitely better than 7+ years ago.
I am secretly hoping for things to slow down / the market to crash a little bit.
The Market downtown for 3 beds is totally nuts right now. I saw a reasonable unit at the heritage in the loop recently, but other than that , anything ‘new’ seems out of reach.
“like saying nothing has changed since 1961 when your grandma or whoever left. ”
But nothing has changed. Chicago is still chicago with all the same problems. the suburbs exist today incorporated because they didn’t want to be Chicago.
You see, you’re a just a temporary visitor here to be milked out of $$$ to pay for lavish pensions and goodies for the rest of the entrenched power brokers. In common parlance, they are ‘townies’. They’ve been here forever, they aren’t going anywhere.
Madigan and his crew have been on the south side for generations as have the Daleys and so many other political families, dynasties and other workers. The city doesn’t exist for you – that’s why the schools suck, the crime is rampant and all the top cops from all around the country willingly and voluntarily gathered today in Chicago to listen to Trump rant for 66 minutes about what an awful place this is. You’re just a long term visitor here to pay taxes and enjoy the nice view from your condo. They tax the heck out of you for that privilege. As soon as you get that you are NOT a stakeholder in Chicago, it all starts to make sense why the city is the way it is.
As for this ‘white america’ crap you’re accusing me of, cut it out. It’s not cool. I’ve never once said anything racist or that could even be construed as racist, so to throw out ‘racist’ is intellectually dishonest and wrong headed. I include polish illegal immigrants (one in ten poles in the US are illegals and overstayed their visa) too. IIRC Obama actually wanted to make it harder for poles to get visas here because so many of them overstayed but Sen. Kirk intervened and prevented it, so we still have the same problem. I’d personally escort them back to Krakow just to see them leave.
“Chicago has some of the best suburban living I’ve seen since we have actual towns with shopping and public transportation. Metro area Chicago burbs aren’t the typical strip mall sprawl hell found in most of the country.”
This depends. Have ever visited Orland Park? Just kidding, but yes, many chicago suburbs have tried to develop their own small town atmosphere where you can still commute to Chicago if necessary but don’t need to.
“I include polish illegal immigrants (one in ten poles in the US are illegals and overstayed their visa) too.”
What about Slovene supermodels?
To be clear:
Barron Trump is an Anchor Baby.
Actually anon(tfo), he is not. Baron’s citizenship flows from his citizen father, not his birthright citizenship. You know better than this.
Anchor-Baby: “used to refer to a child born to a noncitizen mother in a country which has birthright citizenship, especially when viewed as providing an advantage to family members seeking to secure citizenship or legal residency.”
Sabrina,
I salute you for doing a great job on this thread systematically tearing apart the false arguments made by a certain poster. Nice job.
“IIRC Obama actually wanted to make it harder for poles to get visas here because so many of them overstayed but Sen. Kirk intervened and prevented it, so we still have the same problem.”
HD, at least get it right.
Poles who visit the United States HAD to get a visa. For decades. There was no reciprocity. They had to go to the US embassy and interview to get a visitor visa. It took weeks and cost over $100. As a result, not many Poles came as tourists as they do from other countries.
Congressman Quigley has been trying to get the rule changed so that Poland could go visa free since 2008. All for naught. But then, a few weeks ago, Trump announced he was going to make Poland visa free. So that may change soon. I think it might have to pass Congress as well.
“The city doesn’t exist for you – that’s why the schools suck, the crime is rampant and all the top cops from all around the country willingly and voluntarily gathered today in Chicago to listen to Trump rant for 66 minutes about what an awful place this is.”
Yep. It was a “rant” from someone who has never lived her and never will. Someone who has NO idea what is going on in this city and never has.
He couldn’t go after Lightfoot the same way he has about Rahm because she didn’t work for Obama and that’s Trump’s sole focus.
So there’s that.
And, HD, why are you even bringing up the Daleys? They haven’t been in “power” for a decade now. It’s time to move on.
“I am secretly hoping for things to slow down / the market to crash a little bit.”
The entire market has slowed down. You don’t want a slow down, you want price declines Riz. Two different things.
As we saw in 2008-2012, housing is sticky. The developers don’t have to do cuts, so they don’t. They will sit on the units and “wait” for the buyers.
Some sellers will have to sell though. But, again, they’re not going to “give it away.” So they wait too. That’s why market times are rising. I’ve seen properties on the market since last spring. They keep listing over and over again. But still no sale.
Can take a few years for the cycle to work itself down though.
“Look at the graphs.”
I never believe your data Gary because the realtors cancel the listing and relist it as “new.”
“If NT wasnt open enrollment and was able to cherry pick the top 300 kids like Payton and Northside, it obviously would have had a higher average ACT score than either.”
But it doesn’t. And Northside Prep can pick the best in the city. And it does. That’s what makes it one of the top 5 high schools in the entire country. And good for them. That’s what we want. We WANT the city schools to shine. And they should.
But it’s not just Northside Prep. It’s Walter Payton. It’s Jones. It’s Whitney Young. It’s Lincoln Park High. It’s Lane Tech.
Yes, your kid can go to Harvard after attending CPS. It happens every year. Same at NT.
But most kids will go to a less selective college, from all of those schools. I don’t understand the obsession. It’s dumb. Not every kid is a genius. Sorry.
“Anyway, we have *no idea* whether it is better or not, as it is self-selecting.”
It doesn’t matter anon(tfo). It consistently ranks in the top in various publications. It’s one of the best high schools in the nation. Period. Stop.
As are several other Chicago Public Schools. That’s how the system is designed. To make those schools great.
I’ve never said there was anything wrong with any of the high schools you mention. Your child will get a great education at any of these. Yay! Fantastic. They are all PUBLIC.
“It has *everything* to do with political rights.”
Gosh, is this a PHD dissertation discussion now?
We were discussing whether or not someone living in a major city in the US could live just as nicely in a city in a foreign country.
They can. In dozens of countries around the world.
Get over it.
“I feel like you sacrifice a lot to live in the city with kids and people delude themselves trying to be trendy that there is some extra amount of “culture” or amenities that are not available elsewhere.”
Russ: a man after my own heart. I’ve argued for years on this blog that there’s really no difference between Naperville and Southport or Lincoln Square once you have kids. Restaurants are the same! They all have Potbelly’s, Noodles & Company, Mia Francesca’s etc.
Lol.
“used to refer to a child born to a noncitizen mother in a country which has birthright citizenship” [the ‘especially’ is immaterial]
Who is his mother? An illegal alien.
Does USA have birthright citizenship? Yes.
Your definition proved my point. Thanks, HD!!
derp.
In 2001, Knavs became a permanent resident of the United States. She married Donald Trump in 2005 and obtained U.S. citizenship in 2006. She is the second first lady (after Louisa Adams) born outside the United States, and the first one to be a naturalized citizen.
“We were discussing whether or not someone living in a major city in the US could live just as nicely in a city in a foreign country.”
And my contention is that the cities you cited too would NOT be as nice to live in, because they are in totalitarian states, with backwards laws and draconian enforcement.
Singapore, Seoul, Tokyo, sure, Taipei, maybe. Riyadh? Doha? GTFOOH!!
She lied on her residency application (regarding overstaying her visa, etc), making her a criminal.
Jut bc Trump got duped into a sham marriage so that Melania and her anchor baby could be legitimated doesn’t make her less of a criminal alien.
“It doesn’t matter anon(tfo). It consistently ranks in the top in various publications. It’s one of the best high schools in the nation. Period. Stop.”
I’m expressing my opinion. Kinda like with the Shinola Hotel.
Besides, since our kids aren’t going to go there (like Harvard) why should we care? Kids get into Princeton from Lake View, too, and kids get into Illinois State and Alabama and Missouri from basically every HS in CPS, and sine that’s where are kids will go, why does it matter what the “top ranked” school is? HMMM??
“She lied on her residency application (regarding overstaying her visa, etc), making her a criminal.”
fake news
Sabrina on October 27th, 2019 at 8:20 pm:
“Chicago set a record for tourism last year. They are coming in droves.”
I see this anecdotally as our Airbnb has seen 90%+ occupancy every month up from April to October. Almost all of our guests staying are on vacation. Not a single guest (even foreigners) has brought up concerns about crime.
Dan #2: I also used to value HD’s comments more but in the last 2-3 years they’ve gotten increasingly out-of-touch and incendiary; often devolving into conservative tropes I hear regurgitated on Fox News. I’m not sure if it’s Trump that has emboldened this sort of irrational anger or if it’s just the Fox News brain drain, to which I’ve unfortunately seen many of my (once decent) relatives fall prey. I can admit that Chicago is far from a shining example of Democratic governing but the outright hatred HD has towards Chicago is far too binary to be respected. To say nothing has fundamentally changed in Chicago in the last 60 years is laughable.
“I never believe your data Gary because the realtors cancel the listing and relist it as “new.””
It isn’t really “Gary’s data”, it’s the realtor’s data presented (much better) by Gary.
But the treatment of re-listing is a flaw. If I list my house from March 1 to October 1 in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019, but get a contract for it on June 1, 2019, that counts as 92 days listing time, but how is that representative? I had it listed for over 2.5 *years*, but it shows up as a relatively short market time? Misleading, at best.
“She is the second first lady (after Louisa Adams) born outside the United States, and the first one to be a naturalized citizen.”
———————————-
Martha Washington
“Martha Washington”
By that standard, John Tyler (10th, 1841-1845) was the first POTUS to be born in the United States. And his first wife the first first lady.
“I never believe your data Gary because the realtors cancel the listing and relist it as “new.””
Sure if your thesis is (and I’m sure it is) that the average property is more mispriced out of the gate today and therefore relisted more times than in the past then the data I’ve shown doesn’t tell the whole story.
The MLS actually tracks total listing time as well – where it adds up all the listings as long as there is less than 90 days between them. I think I actually used to track that myself, rather than use the canned program, but finally concluded that it didn’t change the narrative.
Look, I’ve got some data at least and all you have is anecdotes and gut feeling. I go to open houses periodically and some are really well attended and some are dead. If I was just reporting on anecdotes who the hell knows what conclusions I’d draw.
So this is actually a better representation of market time this year but it’s a snapshot: http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2019/08/chicago-real-estate-market-how-long-it-takes-to-sell-a-home-in-2019/ Yeah, it’s slower than last year but that’s what my graphs show also.
I look at homes listed late February, early March so it should be a lot of truly new listings. If you want to claim that there were a bunch of relists in that time period then…well, that’s just another wild claim without data.
“By that standard, John Tyler (10th, 1841-1845) was the first POTUS to be born in the United States. And his first wife the first First Lady.”
——————————-
If you mean American-born first lady, I agree with you. Martha Washington was the first First Lady.
“American-born”
All of the first ladies, save Louisa Adams and Melania have been “American-born”, as they were born in the American British colonies or the USA.
Tyler’s first wife was the first true (ie POTUS wife, rather than a niece or daughter) first lady born after 1783 (actually, first after 1768, other than Louisa).
“To say nothing has fundamentally changed in Chicago in the last 60 years is laughable.”
You’re missing the forest for the trees if you think Chicago has ‘changed’ in the last 60 years. Sure there are some superficial changes – downtown is bigger, the demographics have changed a bit, the lake shore neighborhoods are nicer than they use to be. But Zoom out to the 10,000 foot view and really very little has changed. The economically depressed areas of the city are still economically depressed, the CTU is still striking (first strike in 1968! then 69, 71, 73, 79, 84, 85, 87…), Burke was still running the city administratively – he’s been there 50 years and he’d be the boss but for his indictment. A Daley was representing cook county in the 1930’s, then was mayor from 1955 to 1976 and then his son took over after that in 1989 to 2011. His preferred successor Rahm took over for 8 years after that. There are families who run this city and have been in power and control of the cities for decades. Dick Mell’s daughter just lost her seat by a handful of votes to a socialist only because of demographic changes in her district. It’s all the same. Meanwhile the suburbs have expanded 50 miles outside of Chicago and it’s a near continuous line of housing developments between Chicago and Rockford headed west and Chicago and Milwaukee headed north and Chicago and Kankakee headed south. All because few of those people wanted to live in Chicago.
I go off on these tangets not because I’m some angry dude with a penchant for Fox News tropes but because you all drink the kool-aid sometimes. Step outside of Chicago and people laugh at us. We are a joke. The most powerful police chiefs in Chicago all paid thousands of dollars each to willingly travel to Chicago to listen to Trump rail on Chicago, and they loved every second of that. Let that sink in. Even the FOP didn’t bother to defend Chicago against Trump’s attacks – they instead railed on Eddie ‘the drunk’ Johnson’s decision to ‘resist’ instead. It’s truly pathetic. If the people in this city with any real money and voting power on this board actually did something (and I don’t mean progressive Action group) but actual civic minded things in the city, it truly could be great. But we’re all just visitors here passing through to pay taxes, while the rest of city run by incompetent fools just laugh at us while they steal our money. There are few cities in america with such wealth run so poorly. And everyone in America knows it too. They’re all laughing at us – you are just too vain to admit it.
They’re all laughing at us?
Who’s all? All 340 million Americans who live outside the Chicago area? I don’t think that’s the case.
I also think the vast majority of Americans (though, like you, I’m going on my own observations) know that Trump is a cartoon character who lies every time he opens his mouth, and they don’t take his anti-Chicago diatribes seriously. Unless you, like him, want to try and convince people that Chicago is more dangerous than Afghanistan. Someone would have to be completely divorced from reality to think he’s doing anything except talking out of his ass.
That applies to any subject he addresses, of course, but Chicago in particular.
“HD, at least get it right. ”
Yes, i did pretty much have it right, as i prefaced “IIRC”, I had the gist of it. Obama met w/ the Polish Prez in 2010 to put Poland on the visa waiver program (VWP). And then did nothing. As we all know, Obama does get kudos on Fox News for being the least immigrant friendly prez we’ve had.
So b/c Obama did nothing, Kirk and Quigley pushed to have Poland included in the VWP. The reason for not allowing Poland in the VWP is because any country with a visa rejection rate over 3% gets excluded. And the reason why Poland has a visa rejection rate of over 3% is because….SO MANY OF THEM OVERSTAY THEIR VISAS AND DON’T GO HOME.
Trump’s BFF Norway is part of the VMP, because as twitter reminded us, Norwegians no longer want to immigrate to the US (since discovering crude oil in the north sea), and he was ruthlessly mocked for it. So they return home. Illegal norwegians in the US? maybe 2 or 3 tops?
But Poland on the other hand….well, yeah, 1 in 10 Poles here are illegally. and I have polish ancestry on both sides of my family. All late 19th century. The pictures to prove it are in my attic as we speak.
“Unless you, like him, want to try and convince people that Chicago is more dangerous than Afghanistan.”
You’re missing the point. The nation’s police chiefs all know that Chicago is less dangerous than Afghanistan… Everyone know that. But half of America – and apparently most of the nation’s police chiefs – love to hear him say that Chicago is worse that Afghanistan….because they’re all laughing at us.
The FOP and it’s members didn’t even address Trump’s calling Chicago a disgrace. They knew he was coming here to ridicule us. And they chose to have a vote of no confidence for Eddie ‘the drunk’ Johnson instead.
“The FOP would be extremely disappointed if Superintendent Eddie Johnson would disrespect President Trump by not attending the President’s speech at the convention, as has been suggested in the media,” the FOP wrote in a post Tuesday.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-blasts-chicago-police-chief-as-a-disgrace-in-fiery-take-down-at-law-enforcement-conference
Let that sink in folks – the beat cops don’t disagree with Trump. They’re mad at ‘the drunk’ for not sitting there and willingly subjecting himself to such abuse.
They’re all laughing at us and you’re all too vain to see it. Step up to the plate folks, do you civic duty, change the city for the better. Stop being just a visitor passing through.
“Let that sink in folks – the beat cops don’t disagree with Trump. They’re mad at ‘the drunk’ for not sitting there and willingly subjecting himself to such abuse.”
Those at the speech weren’t “beat cops.” These were the heads of police from all over the world. Trump’s comments were shameful.
No one is “laughing” at us. They were glad we went to protest in front of his tower. We’re all in this together. If nothing else, at least we can all come together to fight for competent leadership of the country.
“And then did nothing.”
Because the State Dept was telling him there was still too big of a rejection amount at the embassy during visa requests.
So now you’re arguing that Poland should have been allowed the visa waiver earlier so that MORE Poles could come and overstay their visas? Lol.
Give me a break. Obama has still deported more and restricted immigration more than Trump ever has. The numbers don’t lie. This is why Obama was not popular in the Hispanic community. Probably wasn’t popular in the Polish one either.
So why does Trump suddenly want to reverse it? Lol.
Other European countries were given visa waivers a long time ago. I don’t know why you’re bringing up Norway, of all places.
“the demographics have changed a bit, the lake shore neighborhoods are nicer than they use to be.”
You really just need to stop HD. You have really lost it.
No American city is the same as 60 years ago. The cities were dumps. Go watch Rent. They were living in lofts without heat in Manhattan in the early 1990s. Now those lofts sell for $10 million each.
Chicago was also a dump.
Urbanization has really transformed every city, especially during the last 10 years. It’s really amazing to see.
Of course, the high prices are the price many of us are now paying for the privilege of living in such vibrant places.
“Almost all of our guests staying are on vacation. Not a single guest (even foreigners) has brought up concerns about crime.”
This is good to hear Elliot. I feel like many tourists are actually more knowledgeable about things like crime.
“Kids get into Princeton from Lake View, too, and kids get into Illinois State and Alabama and Missouri from basically every HS in CPS, and sine that’s where are kids will go, why does it matter what the “top ranked” school is? HMMM??”
Yes. I know a young man who went to Lincoln Park High and went to Northwestern. He “survived” CPS.
You make my point perfectly anon(tfo). It DOESN’T matter where your kid goes, in the end (with a caveat that if they are special needs it MAY matter as some public high schools have more resources than others.) If they are going to go to Harvard, they are going to no matter where they go to high school.
Most people’s kids will go to University of Iowa or Michigan State. Nothing wrong with either school. Go Big Ten.
And the intense academic mania that grips Walter Payton and New Trier isn’t for every kid. Some will love it and others will loathe it.
The only reason it matters about why a school is “top ranked” (for our discussion) is because people were trashing Chicago Public Schools again when they cannot be trashed anymore.
In case no one noticed, the quality of the schools was not even a campaign issue in the last mayoral campaign. That had to be the first time in my lifetime that that was the case.
Here’s another anecdotal point: A close relative of mine is a Chicago Greeter and regularly takes tourists from all over the world on walks around the Loop. She says there’s plenty of business for her services, and that the people she takes out come back very impressed. She recently took a man from Toronto around downtown who’d never been to Chicago until now. He said it’s a much better looking city than Toronto.
Of course, she didn’t show these people around West Garfield Park or Englewood. Just because Chicago has neighborhoods with problems doesn’t mean we can’t acknowledge all the beauty and excitement of downtown. If there’s an issue, it’s that politicians have spent the last 60 years ignoring the poor areas of the city and focusing on the Loop and areas right around it.
“The most powerful police chiefs in Chicago all paid thousands of dollars each to willingly travel to Chicago’
HAHAHAHA!!
You think that those popo didn’t bill the trip to their department? Get back on the turnip truck, HD!
They’re just like the pension administrators who are desperate to maintain their little ounce of power, and the right to get a “free” boondoggle to Wisconsin once a year. Ubi est mea!
“Those at the speech weren’t “beat cops.””
You misread HD’s post. He’s saying that the Chicago FOP’s ‘beat cops’ had the (totally useless) no confidence vote on Johnson in part bc he wasn’t going to sit thru the Trumpkin’s rantings.
He’s saying that the CPD is PART OF THE PROBLEM.
Which is something I think that most of us here mostly agree with.
“The only reason it matters about why a school is “top ranked” (for our discussion)”
It’s pointless–your kid won’t get in. Just like you always say.
You need to look at Von Steuben, or the IB program at Amundsen. If *that* is good enough for you (and/or better than the suburban option you might consider) then that’s the real test.
“The schools improved.”
This is a bit of a very popular overstatement. While I’m sure that parents got more involved and there might be more and better activities and maybe the teachers behave better knowing that they have lots of parents hovering over, guess what drove a lot of this “improvement”? CPS has the data out there, though I can’t find it right now (I think it’s temporarily removed). It’s a series of scatter plots that show that Illinois and CPS school test scores strongly correlate with 3 factors that the school doesn’t control but has everything to do with who the students are:
1) % low income students
2) % mobility
3) % absenteeism
And I suspect that % English speaking makes a difference also.
If high income parents that don’t move around and make sure their kids get to school every day start sending their kids to a school it magically improves.
Mentions Chicago suburbs
https://youtu.be/ImMxZaZcBts
Schools reflect the communities in which they serve. The teachers, resources, etc really have nothing to do with school performance.
Bad schools are bad primarily because they typically have a concentration of impoverished students who bring many other social dysfunctions to the classrooms. The schools in those areas are not really schools but public social services / daycare.
Good schools are good not because of the teachers or anything else but because the students are already top performers because they by in large come from homes in which education is valued.
The big problem with our public school system is that the schools are not only tied to a specific community, but they also have to operate to the lowest common denominator in the community. So instead of focusing on the say the 50% of the kids who may actually benefit, the public schools tend to focus on the OTHER 50% who are beyond hope.
I went to a really bad middle school. I checked it the other day, it is showing as a “1” on great schools. The problem is kids like me were ignored while the school focuses on the bottom 50% of the class and all their social dysfunction.
Fortunately, I had parents that gave a damn and a busing program allowed me to attend a top public high school in a very wealthy area. It was a night and day difference in the student body. I went from a school where kids in 8th grade were in gangs, frequently getting arrested, etc to a New Trier like 9th grade school where the worst offense was not doing your homework.
“school test scores strongly correlate with 3 factors that the school doesn’t control but has everything to do with who the students are:
1) % low income students
2) % mobility
3) % absenteeism”
I’ve been saying here for a long time that the way to tell a “good” neighborhood elementary school was to look at the % of low income–under 50% = perceived as good, over 50% = not. (there are a handful of exceptions with under 50, and perception not quite being there.
There are obviously many “good” elementary schools in CPS with over 50% low income, but every one of them is selective in some fashion–meaning that the parents put in effort for their kids to be there.
This year’s data is out yet, but based on last year, the district as a whole was 78.6% low income and every grade cohort from 3-12 was over 80%. Out of 658 schools (includes charters, and several *very* small schools) 71 are under 50%, including 7 HS–Payton, Northside, Jones, Young, Lane, ChiAg and ChiArts (12,272 kids). LPHS and Taft are close, at about 53%, and Disney HS and Kenwood are about 59%. Lindblom, Ogden, Brooks are ~67%, and that’s in under 70%–9 SEHS, a Magnet, 3 NS high schools, and one in Hyde Park, and half of them are on the “wrong” side of the line.
Since we have established that your kids aren’t going to get into the selective enrollment schools, you either have to suck up the fact that your kid will go to a mostly poor HS, get them into a private school, or move to the suburbs.
And all of this is, without a doubt, a *HUUUUGE* improvement over 10 years ago. In the 09-10 SY, overall CPS was 86.9% low-income, only 51 out of 674 schools were under 50%, and Payton, Northside, Young, Ogden and ChiArts (4816 kids) were the only HS under 50%, and Jones, LPHS and ChiAg (3572 kids) the only ones under 60% (Lane and Taft, ~63%). There were ~10,000 more HS kids then, too.
BTW, the “poor” standard is 185% of the federal poverty line, or (first column is family size):
2 31,284
3 39,461
4 47,638
5 55,815
6 63,992
7 72,169
8 80,346
“The teachers, resources, etc really have nothing to do with school performance.”
This is absolutely an exaggeration. Especially given how the “rankings” are done.
the most basic example: a school that has the resources to provide standardized test prep will “perform” better than one that doesn’t.
A school that has the resources to offer a full range of extracurricular activities will be perceived as better than one that doesn’t (and, in fact, will serve the students better).
A school full of disinterested teachers, counting the days til they hit the rule of 85, can ruin everything (not everyone, of course–kids can make it out of any middling school).
“Out of 658 schools (includes charters, and several *very* small schools) 71 are under 50%”
I don’t feel like gthooi. For ick, what are portage and belding at? And which are the top 20 or so elementary?
“what are portage and belding at?”
Portage = 69, Belding = 51. Again, last SY.
Top 26 (lowest low income %, from lowest (6.4) up to 25%) bc so many SEES:
Thomas A Edison Regional Gifted Center
Frederick Stock
Wildwood IB World Magnet School
Skinner North
Oscar F Mayer
Edgebrook
Louisa May Alcott College Preparatory
Mount Greenwood
Alexander Graham Bell
Alexander Hamilton
James G Blaine
Abraham Lincoln
Augustus H Burley
John J Audubon
John C Coonley
Stephen Decatur Classical
Norwood Park
Christian Ebinger
Edison Park
George F Cassell
Hawthorne Elementary Scholastic Academy
Louis Nettelhorst
Thomas Drummond
Sauganash
Oriole Park
Mark Skinner
16,805 kids total, out of 237,779 K-8 total. 7%
“No American city is the same as 60 years ago. The cities were dumps. Go watch Rent.”
I just caught this…we’re supposed to watch Rent to see what NYC was like in … 1960??
In 1960, the top 3 industries, by number of employees, were wholesale trade, apparel manufacturing and printing and publishing. Banks, Insurance, and Real Estate *combined* were less than Wholesale Trade.
That’s a world that has almost nothing to do with the world of Rent, or of contemporary NYC.
Was NYC “better” in 1960? In some ways, probably, in other ways certainly not (now, if you’re a white nationalist, you’d certainly find 1960 NYC better, at least before you realized how many Jews were there then, too). Was it better in 1960 AND today than it was in 1978? Undoubtedly (for almost everyone).
Anon, you are talking about small differences at the margins of already above average / high performing schools. AP classes and ipads aren’t life changing differences for most students.
I’m talking the grand canyon like chasm between good schools and bad schools. There may be a difference between Northside Prep and New Trier, but that difference is no where near the difference between New Trier and say Englewood’s local high school. That difference has nothing to do with resources but the students themselves.
My point is that you could build a $100 million high school in the middle of Englewood with the latest and greatest of everything and all the best CPS teachers…. it ain’t going to change sh*t because the issues have nothing to do with the schools. Alternatively, you could have a one room shack with used textbooks up in Winnetka and you’d still would have high test scores and above average achievement.
“I’ve been saying here for a long time that the way to tell a “good” neighborhood elementary school was to look at the % of low income–under 50% = perceived as good, over 50% = not.”
“Portage = 69, Belding = 51”
I am a little surprised they are as far apart as they are. My view of portage is prob skewed by the fact that about the only thing I know about it, besides its location, came from looking at a house for sale where the kid was going to northside and had gone to portage elem. I also would have guessed the low income percentage for belding to be a bit higher.
Belding at 51 percent provides some merit for the @fo threshold. As I said in the other comments, I think there are definitely mixed views on belding, mixed in the sense that some people who have other options send their kids there and others choose not to. ick, as you may or may not know, belding is also starting up some sort of IB program, the general benefits of which I am pretty agnostic.
What a lucky break that I happened over here and noticed DZ comment on the right rail and decided to take a look…I don’t venture here as often as in the CC Halcyon Days.
Portage doesn’t have free pre-K yet, I think that comes next year. Belding does, but that doesn’t guarantee a spot in their kindergarten class. Also, I believe that if it isn’t your neighborhood school, you have to apply every year for a spot.
I’m gonna say that for pre-K and Kindergarten most kids will likely survive either Portage or Belding or just about any CPS school. It’s around 2nd grade that kids become more like Sith Lords and you have to watch out for bullies and exhausted teachers who think maybe letting the other kids do the enforcing is the way to go.
I’m not quite in agreement with Russ assessment that build a $100 million high school in the middle of Englewood with the latest and greatest of everything and all the best CPS teachers…. it ain’t going to change sh*t
because it would make a difference. It might not change enough to justify the ROI but it would certainly generate a few more success stories…without taking anything away from the 1 room shack in Winnetka.
“Also, I believe that if it isn’t your neighborhood school, you have to apply every year for a spot.”
That would be exciting (especially if you made the gifties test every year) but pretty sure that’s not correct. Definitely not teh case for SEES and not the experience of anyone I’ve known who has a kid going to a neighborhood school that wasn’t in their neighborhood.
“It’s around 2nd grade that kids become more like Sith Lords and you have to watch out for bullies and exhausted teachers who think maybe letting the other kids do the enforcing is the way to go.”
As I mentioned, people seem to like the Belding principal and my impression is she has a good command of her school. You may not agree with everything she believes but I doubt she would put up with nonsense (insofar as it is plausibly within her control).
“you are talking about small differences at the margins of already above average / high performing schools.”
You wrote:
“The teachers, resources, etc really have nothing to do with school performance.”
Which I noted is obviously an exaggeration, which you apparently agree with, as even small differences at the margin are more than “nothing to do with”.
And, I was NOT thinking about “high performing” schools. I was thinking about my mediocre HS (~1/3 starting at 4-year colleges), and comparing it to others I have some familiarity with, past and present. While ti is true that more/better “stuff” tends to attract higher income families (and therefor upgrade the student body), it also expands the opportunities for the student body that is there (take, for one example, an average school that has a great coach/debate teacher/theater teacher AND spends money on that one thing–they tend to do very well, and better than bigger/better schools that have more average coaches/teachers leading extra-curriculars). And that makes a big difference at the middle of the pack school, standing out in something.
“the most basic example: a school that has the resources to provide standardized test prep will “perform” better than one that doesn’t.”
But within Chicago aren’t all schools funded the same – i.e. a fixed dollar amount per student? So that’s a non-issue.
“But within Chicago aren’t all schools funded the same”
First, that’s a total non sequitor.
Second, yes, but no.
Huh? to both
“I never believe your data Gary because the realtors cancel the listing and relist it as “new.””
Just an FYI. I just checked and it turns out that the analysis program does in fact report total market time, which uses the 90 day re-list rule. Listing market time is about half of what’s reported for total market time.
“Huh? to both”
Comparing within CPS isn’t the point. Russ’s contention is that resources are basically immaterial, so comparing two schools with very similar resources is off topic.
On the second: yes, SBB means that schools of the same size get roughly the $$. Of course, a school with a small student population gets screwed (not that CTU admits to this reality…they want to keep underenrolled schools open no matter the consequences to budget or kids).
But there is a huge difference in CPS bt the “rich” schools, which can add 10% or more to their budget through fundraising and school fees to provide actual additional programs and materials (and sometimes additional staff), and the poor schools, which (to the extent they do fundraise) are trying to get their kids to have basic supplies.
“Listing market time is about half of what’s reported for total market time.”
Yikes!
Any chance you can check a couple of prior years when things were perceived to be “hot” compared to now?
“Any chance you can check a couple of prior years when things were perceived to be “hot” compared to now?”
It’s a bit of work but I did look at last year and it was the same relationship.
“Comparing within CPS isn’t the point. Russ’s contention is that resources are basically immaterial, so comparing two schools with very similar resources is off topic.”
No it’s not. If the resources are the same and yet the outcomes are very different then resources are not the issue.
“But there is a huge difference in CPS bt the “rich” schools, which can add 10% or more to their budget through fundraising and school fees to provide actual additional programs and materials (and sometimes additional staff), and the poor schools, which (to the extent they do fundraise) are trying to get their kids to have basic supplies.”
Agreed. I think about this often. It creates a bigger problem. Parents in rich areas could choose to supplement their own school directly and vote to keep property taxes down so that their money only goes to their school. The only solution would be quite draconian – i.e. disallow fund raising for individual schools.
‘If the resources are the same and yet the outcomes are very different then resources are not the issue.”
OMG, did you seriously write that???
“disallow fund raising for individual schools.”
known around here as the Oak Park model.
“It’s a bit of work but I did look at last year and it was the same relationship.”
I don’t find that surprising. Anecdata-ly, what I’ve seen since ’10 (in the pretty small slice of the market I follow regularly) has been a fairly consistent %age of sales are canceled/re-listed a few times, and mainly bc their initial was quite a bit too high (as in final sales ~15% off initial ask). And that’s both new and resale homes.
Stuff that sells fast is usually priced right to start, with the occasional sucker who falls in love with a house and pays too much.
“OMG, did you seriously write that???”
Not a particularly enlightening comment on your part but, yes, I did seriously write that.
@Icarus “Also, I believe that if it isn’t your neighborhood school, you have to apply every year for a spot.”
@DZ is correct, this is absolutely not the case. If your child gets into another neighborhood school out-of-district, they’re in. The only way you get kicked out of a school is if you were in-district, move out-of-district, and you don’t get back in via lottery or it being not full. Or alternatively you get caught falsifying an in-district address. If you’re bored, read the inspector general’s report, there are some address shenanigans every year (usually suburban kids faking a city address to go to North Side or Payton).
So, if you have a multiple variable situation, and you are trying to determine the effects, if you control for one variable, in one comparison, then you can eliminate the variable as having any effect?
Do you really not see anything wrong with that analysis??
OK. I was wondering if that’s where you were going with this. Why didn’t you just say that in the beginning?
So you think it’s a multiple variable situation. That’s never the way this is discussed. People’s first explanation is always that it comes down to resources, implying that resources are the primary, if not only, driver of differences in performance. Clearly they are not. They could be A factor but it’s unlikely they are even the primary factor – especially when you look at 3 different scatter diagrams that show a strong correlation across multiple schools with 3 different variables and in all cases the resources per student are essentially the same yet the variability of performance is wide.