Market Conditions: July Sales Fall 27.6% to 10-Year Low as Rates Remain Over 5%
The Illinois Association of Realtors is out with the July data. We knew it was going to eventually slow as the mortgage rates rose. But boy, did it slow in July.
In Chicago, home sales (single-family and condominiums) in July 2022 totaled 2,426 homes sold, down 27.6 percent from July 2021 sales of 3,350 homes.
The median price of a home in the city of Chicago in July 2022 was $350,000, a 1.4 percent increase from July 2021, when it was $345,000.
It’s the lowest July sales since 2012, which was the bottom of the housing bust.
Also a reminder that last year, July was the hottest in 15 years. We’ve gone from red hot, to bitterly cold, in just one year.
Here’s the July data since 1997 (thanks, once again, to G for the historic info):
- 1997: 1,694
- 1998: 2,139
- 1999: 2,186
- 2000: 2,013
- 2001: 2,410
- 2002: 2,661
- 2003: 3,105
- 2004: 3,429
- 2005: 3,487
- 2006: 3,088
- 2007: 2,819
- 2008: 2,200
- 2009: 2,040
- 2010: 1,631
- 2011: 1,666
- 2012: 2,088
- 2013: 2,902
- 2014: 2,725
- 2015: 3,082
- 2016: 2,780
- 2017: 2,698
- 2018: 2,803
- 2019: 2,708
- 2020: 2,793
- 2021: 3,350
- 2022: 2,426
Statewide inventories continued to fall, declining 19.1% to 27,910 compared to 34,518 last year.
The number of days homes took to sell also continues to plunge.
Statewide market times:
- 2016: 53 days
- 2017: 47 days
- 2018: 44 days
- 2019: 43 days
- 2020: 50 days
- 2021: 25 days
- 2022: 20 days
“The home sales we saw in July are to be expected considering overall economic uncertainties,” said Ezekiel “Zeke” Morris, president of Illinois REALTORS® and designated managing broker of EXIT Strategy Realty/EMA Management on the South Side of Chicago. “But fortunately for sellers, their homes still sold briskly.”
In Chicago, average days on the market also fell, to 25 days from 31 last year, a decline of 19.4%.
Chicago inventory fell 17.1% to 7,789 from 9,392 properties.
In the Chicago sales, both condo and single family home sales fell but condos were down 31.3% from last year to 1,576 while single family homes fell 19.4% to 850.
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 5.4% in July, down from 5.52% in June but up from 2.89% in July 2021.
“Inflation and increased mortgage rates are having an impact on the market, as we saw home sales decline in July,” said Antje Gehrken, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and president and designated managing broker of A.R.E. Partners. “However, home prices held steady while days on the market decreased, which means houses are moving and it’s important to work with a REALTOR® to price your home correctly if you’re looking to sell.”
Inventory has been “low” for months now.
Is it still impacting home sales, even with rising mortgage rates, or is the slowdown 100% about the surge in mortgage rates and nothing else?
Median prices rose and Illinois homes sold fast in July [Illinois Association of Realtors Press Release, by Bill Kozar, August 18, 2022]
Home prices went up only 1.4% while inflation runs around 8%. So folks lost more than 6% already in inflation adjusted dollars on their real estate investment in Chicago in 1 year. Ouch! Buy real estate anywhere but Chicago. We’ve had among the worst economic recoveries from Covid compared to other metro areas. Buying a home in Texas, Colorado, Carolinas, Florida, Washington, Nevada, etc. are so much better for your bottom line.
“Buy real estate anywhere but Chicago.”
If you buy a place in Chicago to live it shouldn’t necessarily be viewed as a savvy investment but rather as a place to live with monthly payments you can manage long term. RE here is a bargain compared to NYC and LA and although appreciation is bad, values don’t have as much room to collapse during a downturn, thus providing relative price stability.
“ If you buy a place in Chicago to live it shouldn’t necessarily be viewed as a savvy investment but rather as a place to live with monthly payments you can manage long term.”
That comes at a huge opportunity cost because you could have invested that $100k down payment on your $500k home into the stock market and make money with it.
“ If you buy a place in Chicago to live it shouldn’t necessarily be viewed as a savvy investment but rather as a place to live with monthly payments you can manage long term.”
That comes at a huge opportunity cost because you could have invested that $100k down payment on your $500k home into the stock market and make money with it.
As I’ve pointed out before…the market time data reflects contracts written in June and even May. Stay tuned to see how fast homes are really selling.
“bitterly cold”
Higher sales than 2001, which was a pretty normal year by longer historical standards.
And with record low market times.
If that’s “bitterly cold”, what would six-month market times, a year of supply, and under 2,000 sales in peak months be?
“RE here is a bargain compared to NYC and LA”
Ran along the lakefront this morning, starting just north of Millennium Park, south a few miles and then back, and tried to think of a comparably nice run in NYC or LA (block or so from a hotel to park/path access, water views, skyline views, very long distances if desired and without having to deal with cars, much of which is segregated from bikes, etc.). There really isn’t one. Same goes for SF and the mid-size cities.
“The share of homes with a price drop increased in all but three of the 97 metro areas surveyed by Redfin, and all of those were in Illinois: Lake County, Elgin and Chicago.”
Pasted from
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-22/cheap-homes-house-prices-are-being-slashed-in-former-pandemic-boomtowns
On 2-24-22 using a paid account.
Inventory has been skyrocketing and transactions have plummeted everywhere. Not really surprising. Would not want to be in the market right now that’s for sure even though rates are still pretty low for qualified buyers. Problem is, will the person buying your home be qualified…
check out this link
https://www.investech.com/subscriber-library/latest-housing-data-look-out-below/
“Ran along the lakefront this morning, starting just north of Millennium Park, south a few miles and then back, and tried to think of a comparably nice run in NYC or LA (block or so from a hotel to park/path access, water views, skyline views, very long distances if desired and without having to deal with cars, much of which is segregated from bikes, etc.). There really isn’t one. Same goes for SF and the mid-size cities.”
High Line to the Greenway?
“RE here is a bargain compared to NYC and LA and although appreciation is bad, values don’t have as much room to collapse during a downturn, thus providing relative price stability.”
And its expensive to KC, Milwaukee, StL, Minneapolis, etc. Thats not a good explanation as to why Chicago wont have much room to fall.
Sure smaller towns that had exponential growth will fair worse – Boise, Tampa, etc. But I dont see a compelling reason to expect NYC to fair worse than Chicago
“High Line to the Greenway?”
That’s all they got? Chicago has the 606 and the Riverwalk in addition to the lakefront.
I spent some time in Los Angeles last fall and was struck by how little green space there is there outside of Griffith Park and the beaches. If you live inland, you can’t just pop over to your local park like you can in Chicago. We really take it for granted but other big cities just don’t have as accessible park amenities.
Chicago is a beautiful city.
“Inventory has been skyrocketing and transactions have plummeted everywhere.”
Sales are definitely down countrywide. Inventory is up in some places, but not that much, and down in others like Chicago.
It’s time for some sanity to return.
“The share of homes with a price drop increased in all but three of the 97 metro areas surveyed by Redfin, and all of those were in Illinois: Lake County, Elgin and Chicago.”
We didn’t see as much crazy speculation so it’s not surprising not as many sellers are dropping here. We also didn’t have high investor numbers. Phoenix and Charlotte were both over 30%. Investors are always the first to slash prices so they can get out of the asset. Owners who live in the property are more likely to be emotionally invested. That’s the old “I’m not going to just give it away.”
“That comes at a huge opportunity cost because you could have invested that $100k down payment on your $500k home into the stock market and make money with it.”
Housing in every city has “opportunity costs.” Homebuyers don’t care. They are buying a home to live in it. To raise their families. We are, apparently, once again into the “house as an investment” mindset like 2005-2008 which will likely be crushed down again in this Fed raising cycle.
The S&P 500 has been the best performing asset class over the last 75 years. If you are looking for the best performance, there is only one thing to buy.
However, I’ve been wondering for 20 years when California would finally reach “peak” price. How many people are there to spend $1.2 million on a 950 square foot 2/1 in the hot, non-descript inland area of Los Angeles not walkable to anything? All home prices have done is go up, and well beyond inflation. What will finally end it? Nothing has so far. But will it be 6% sustained mortgage rates?
What is the world like if SoCal home prices stay flat for 5+ years or more?
“RE here is a bargain compared to NYC and LA and although appreciation is bad, values don’t have as much room to collapse during a downturn, thus providing relative price stability.”
No bubble the last 2 years, no bust. Middle class can actually afford to buy here and grow their wealth. That makes the Chicagoland metro area a better place to live. More equitable. You don’t have to be rich to buy a house.
Chicago will be an interesting “test” market for what happens when mortgage rates rise dramatically in a market that did not see crazy speculation and growth. Will inventory rise here as well? Will prices ultimately have to decline? Or will it be like the mid-90s where prices didn’t go anywhere for about 5 years?
“High Line to the Greenway?”
High Line is cool for walking but seems a little crowded for regular runs. But the Greenway really is pretty great, assuming one lives or is staying all the way to the west and near a pleasant access point.
“That’s all they got? Chicago has the 606 and the Riverwalk in addition to the lakefront.”
Riverwalk is very nice but it’s really just that: a place for a walk on the river. Cool to incorporate into a run once and a while but I wouldn’t put it on the list of rave runs. 606 is a nice ammenity for that neck of the woods, but it isn’t very long, a lot of the views don’t exactly stir the soul, and bikes can be a problem in parts (that’s something that Chicago has addressed pretty well on the lakefront in recent years).
“606 is a nice ammenity for that neck of the woods, but it isn’t very long”
They are extending it another mile with the Lincoln Yards Development.
“ That comes at a huge opportunity cost because you could have invested that $100k down payment on your $500k home into the stock market and make money with it.”
Your rent increases will certainly eat up some of those stock market gains.
If you dropped 100k into an index fund 2 years ago you might be up 5k but your rent probably increased by 20% or more.
Yeah, Chicago has a lot to offer but there’s a reason it trades at a discount to other major cities. So I’m not convinced that it won’t fall as hard as the rest of the country.
The metric I’m watching in Raleigh/ Durham is the size of the due diligence (non-refundable under any circumstance) payments. This was originally anticipated to be like $1000 but ran up to astronomical levels. According to our realtor “fees have cooled off – now looking in the $5-25k price range instead of $60-100k. Buyers also have an actual due diligence process with the ability to negotiate repair concessions.”
My daughter lives in Berkeley so you have outrageous taxes and ridiculous home prices. Her husband can now work anywhere but she wants to stay there. Irrational like everyone else that lives there.
I just don’t get Phoenix. Like where in the hell (literally) are they going to get their water? I’ve been scratching my head for years over that one.
“Riverwalk is very nice but it’s really just that: a place for a walk on the river. Cool to incorporate into a run once and a while but I wouldn’t put it on the list of rave runs.”
I guess that’s the difference between living in Chicago and just visiting every once in a while.
All I ever see are runners on it every morning. Dozens of them. You can run from Lake Street all the way to the lakefront/Navy Pier. Very pleasant. I wouldn’t be out there later in the day when the restaurants are open, however, I sometimes see runners attempting to run on it during the busy time too and I think they are nuts.
I don’t think there is the money to extend it all the way to the new Printers Row development but a girl can dream.
“So I’m not convinced that it won’t fall as hard as the rest of the country.”
Well, we didn’t go up 100% like some cities in Florida. So there is no way Chicago will fall “as hard” as the rest of the country. We didn’t have the excess nor the speculation. Heck, we don’t even have the iBuyers.
Investors made up over 30% of sales in both Charlotte and Phoenix. Both of those will likely see the hardest crashes. Basically, any city where people were shaking their heads at the housing “stories” are going to have rough sailing ahead.
That means: Austin, Boise, Phoenix, Charlotte, most of Florida are at the top of the list.
But inventory needs to build to see changes in price. Here in Chicago, inventory is still low in many neighborhoods. There isn’t the new construction in Chicago like we saw in the last cycle. Investors don’t own 5 condos they are trying to flip.
However, it’s all about the job market. Housing will slow even more everywhere if unemployment rises.
“According to our realtor “fees have cooled off – now looking in the $5-25k price range instead of $60-100k. Buyers also have an actual due diligence process with the ability to negotiate repair concessions.”
In Raleigh/Durham you have to put up $60k-$100k which is not refundable just to buy a house?
Wow. Talk about a stake in the heart of the middle class or first time home buyer. That’s a REALLY unhealthy housing market driven by sellers. Everyone there should be glad that housing is slowing and getting back to something more akin to “normal.” It’s going to take more than just 3 months of high rates to get it there though.
That is nuts. But a lot was nuts in housing over the last 2 years. It is still crazy to me that people bought homes to live in, not simply as investments, sight unseen.
“I just don’t get Phoenix. Like where in the hell (literally) are they going to get their water? I’ve been scratching my head for years over that one.”
Phoenix isn’t even the worst Gary. St. George Utah is one of the most popular cities in the West. That’s mostly because it has something like 320 days of sunshine and 40 golf courses. It also has cheap housing so Baby Boomers have been moving there in droves. And those new homes have lawns, pools and other such nonsense. But the water is going to run out.
“The county’s population of about 180,000 is expected to more than double by 2050 — even though its single water source, the Virgin River basin, is dwindling as the West remains locked in the worst drought in 1,200 years.”
“This seems to be some level of insanity to me that you continue to allow unabated growth at the same time you’re dealing with this unprecedented drought,” said Don Fawson, president of the Leeds Domestic Water Users Association, which provides drinking water to about 430 households in town. “Rather than trying to find all these sources of water, we ought to be controlling the growth.”
Who is moving there now knowing that there will be water restrictions soon etc? But they are. Homes still selling briskly.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/08/15/st-george-utah-water-crisis/
10-year spiking again. Mortgage rates will continue to rise this fall. Buyers and sellers will both likely be on the sidelines until the spring, when “everyone” expects the Fed to be done raising, the economy to be in a recession and mortgage rates to be falling again.
“In Raleigh/Durham you have to put up $60k-$100k which is not refundable just to buy a house?”
Correct. Had to. But you still have to put up a significant chunk. In many cases sight unseen without photos even. That’s one of the reasons we went with new construction. You don’t have that problem.
The difference between Raleigh/ Durham and Chicago is that job growth there is phenomenal. And with people moving from CA with bags of money they don’t care what mortgage rates are.
You know…if Chicago didn’t go up as much as other areas because of a perception that the situation here has deteriorated then prices will drop here along with everywhere else.
“I just don’t get Phoenix. Like where in the hell (literally) are they going to get their water?”
Gee if only there was a massive body of water bordering California….
Desalination Plants and efficient technology. Already being done in Israel as it uses water from the Mediterranean sea.
The biggest obstacle will be dumb politicians, regulations, and NIMBY’s.
There’s no actual water crisis anywhere.
“All I ever see are runners on it every morning. Dozens of them.”
Wow dozens! I hope this stampede of runners doesnt trample you and you break your hip
“That’s all they got? Chicago has the 606 and the Riverwalk in addition to the lakefront.”
Yeah thats all NYC has to offer.
How you get from me responding to Annony wrt to a jogging option in NYC that I felt met his criteria to the Highline/Riverwalk being the only amenity in NYC is dumb even for you.
Sober up, you’ll be happier in the long run
“Phoenix isn’t even the worst Gary. St. George Utah…”
is projected to add ~200,000 people in 30 years.
Maricopa County is projected to add 1.6 million.
“There’s no actual water crisis anywhere.”
Israel produces something like 600m cubic meters of desalinated water per year.
Arizona uses something like 7m acre-feet of water per year.
That’s over 8.5 billion cubic meters.
Israel has ~30% more people than Arizona.
The first thing that has to happen in the US is broad adoption of grey water for landscaping uses–especially in deserts–and then go from there. Israel has used grey water for agricultural irrigation for decades, but we can’t use grey water for golf courses. It’s lunacy.
Maricopa County is projected to add 1.6 million.
Gary said he’s surprised people are still living in Phoenix. I said that wasn’t even the worst place out west. St George’s Utah is. Baby Boomers continue to move there even though the water crisis has already arrived and they can’t tap the Colorado River to save themselves. Yet they keep moving there and the houses all have grass.
But humans are dumb. They will stay until it’s too late. Basically just like they are moving to, and staying in, all of the West even with the drought, the fires etc. There are a few climate migrators who have come to the Midwest though. Most of them are survivors of the fires.
“Andrew and Shauna Parrish moved to Houghton in Michigan’s western Upper Peninsula in late 2021 after enduring a month of 100-degree days last summer in Boise under the constant haze of forest fire smoke choking out the skies of Idaho.”
“Rodney Puttock picked up and left his hometown of Las Vegas in mid-2021 for the literal green pastures of Holly, Mich., where, unlike in Sin City, water is plentiful.”
https://www.crainsdetroit.com/crains-forum/climate-change-extreme-weather-spur-migration-great-lakes
“Wow dozens! I hope this stampede of runners doesnt trample you and you break your hip”
Yeah, I see all the runners when I’m on my way to work and walking on Wacker Drive. I don’t sit down there and count them and it’s just a snapshot of about 15 minutes as I walk by. It’s heavily used by runners, and some bikes, early in the mornings. It’s just so lovely down there. No cars or pollution, less noise. Sometimes there are people fishing there. There are people walking their dogs. Some bring their coffee and just sit.
It’s been a wonderful addition to the city and it’s one of Rahm’s legacies.
“Gee if only there was a massive body of water bordering California….
Desalination Plants and efficient technology. Already being done in Israel as it uses water from the Mediterranean sea.”
They already have this in San Diego. There are already proposals to extend it to other states with Arizona proposing to build a plant off of Mexico and share the water with Mexico. But it’s not a total solution.
“People should understand that it’s probably the most expensive water supply that would be available as one of the many solutions to Colorado River shortage issues,” said Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University.
Porter said desalinated water is likely too expensive for the agriculture sector, the river’s largest water user.
“It probably is — and will be someday — a solution for municipal water users,” she said.
https://www.kunc.org/environment/2022-08-11/the-southwest-is-running-out-of-fresh-water-could-the-ocean-provide-a-cure
The Carlsbad desalination plant, the largest in the country, only provides 10% of San Diego County’s water. It cost $1 billion to build. But Arizona COULD build the plant and pipe the water for 300 miles. How much are you willing to pay for your water? Yikes. Good luck to them.
“The difference between Raleigh/ Durham and Chicago is that job growth there is phenomenal. And with people moving from CA with bags of money they don’t care what mortgage rates are.”
I didn’t hear that job growth was that great but I have heard that WFH people are all moving there. It’s been the #1 destination for Bay Area refugees for a while, even pre-pandemic. And Apple is putting in HQ2 so that’s a lot of jobs.
It’s a nightmare housing market now though with all those California buyers. I wonder how bad it will crash down with 5% rates? Middle class has to be very stressed there. Salaries were not that high pre-pandemic.
Yikes.
“I didn’t hear that job growth was that great but I have heard that WFH people are all moving there. It’s been the #1 destination for Bay Area refugees for a while, even pre-pandemic. And Apple is putting in HQ2 so that’s a lot of jobs.”
Shocking that you’re ill-informed on another topic you feel the need to opine…
https://abc11.com/raleigh-job-market-hottest-markets-fidelity/11804879/
“Israel has ~30% more people than Arizona”
60% of Saudi Arabia’s water comes from desalination. Saudi Arabia has the population of California…
The majority of middle eastern countries receive the majority of their water from desalination. More people live in the Middle East than the US.
“Porter said desalinated water is likely too expensive for the agriculture sector, the river’s largest water user.
“It probably is — and will be someday — a solution for municipal water users,” she said.”
Is this Porter person an engineer or only an academic? In the 1980’s how fast and cheap were computers and processing speeds compared to today. Technology evolves and becomes more efficient and cheaper with more investment.
“But Arizona COULD build the plant and pipe the water for 300 miles. How much are you willing to pay for your water”
Wow 300 entire miles oh my goodness no one has ever transported something hundreds of miles by pipe before…. Please educate us on how expensive it is to drill oil or frack shale and send it hundreds and thousands of miles away to heat someone’s home or fill up the tank.
Again, this isn’t really an issue unless politicians, regulators, and NIMBY’s want it to be.
“Porter said desalinated water is likely too expensive for the agriculture sector, the river’s largest water user.”
Has Porter Googled vertical farming? Was vertical farming even mentioned in the article….
“vertical farming”
Have you ever met any “farmers” (and “ranchers”) in the SW? They almost all seem to think that it is their birthright to get nearly free water, and nearly free access to federal lands. And they get that protected by the Senate, who cross party lines for all the ag subsidies and protections. It’s gross.
I doubt they’d go in for vertical farming, even if the feds paid for the construction of the vertical farms. UNLESS their water gets cut off or market priced.
“Has Porter Googled vertical farming? Was vertical farming even mentioned in the article….”
She is an expert in the field. And you are, who, again WP?
My god.
“60% of Saudi Arabia’s water comes from desalination. Saudi Arabia has the population of California…”
Do they have to pump it through pipelines 300 to 1000 miles?
Also, for the people trying to post comments just saying that California sucks and it’s “woke” etc. I’m not putting your comments through. This is a site about real estate, believe it or not.
It’s a big country. You don’t have to live in California.
Oh, and the worst of the water crisis isn’t even IN California. It’s in Arizona and Utah. Last I checked Utah was a red state. Climate change doesn’t care who is in charge.
“She is an expert in the field. And you are, who, again WP?”
What makes her an expert in the field? a JD?
“Do they have to pump it through pipelines 300 to 1000 miles?”
Nah, they just use something like 25% of their total oil and gas production to power it. No issues there.
Yes, yes, they use cogen plants, so they get electricity, too, and that then means the “25%” over estimates the true energy cost of the desalination.
“Also, for the people trying to post comments just saying that California sucks and it’s “woke” etc.”
People who say things like “CA is woke” and “CA is full of libtards” and “Californians are moving here and ruining our state with their woke views” are silly, to put it kindly. Trump got more votes in 2020 in CA than in any other state. More than TX or FL. Two or three times as many as he did in less populous red states.
“People who say things like “CA is woke” and “CA is full of libtards” and “Californians are moving here and ruining our state with their woke views” are silly, to put it kindly. Trump got more votes in 2020 in CA than in any other state. More than TX or FL. Two or three times as many as he did in less populous red states.”
Using that logic why do certain people complain about Mississippi? Spread was closer
“Do they have to pump it through pipelines 300 to 1000 miles?”
Yes. Over 500 miles for the Ras Al-Khair Supply Pipeline alone….
5,600KM’s is 3,479 miles….
“The government-owned Saline Water Conversion Corporation (SWCC) operates 31 desalination plants in 17 locations along the East and West coasts of Saudi Arabia. Through a pipeline network of more than 5,600 km, the treated water is transported into more than 46 governorates and cities throughout the Kingdom.”
https://www.optasense.com/optasense-provides-monitoring-for-critical-saudi-arabia-water-pipelines/#:~:text=Ras%20Al%2DKhair%20Supply%20Pipelines,the%20project%20in%20March%202019.
Speaking of migration patterns…I found this interesting: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/this-city-saw-the-highest-net-migration-in-the-us-this-year?utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=campaign_4946068
“Speaking of migration patterns…I found this interesting:”
This is interesting. Thanks for posting this Gary. This is similar to what the Tribune discovered a few years ago when it investigated where people went who left the states. The majority just went to nearby states, as this survey says. That’s true of anyone from any region. Californians move to Nevada, Colorado, Idaho and Arizona and now, also, Texas. But they tend to stay in the West. It’s not too “new” to them.
Makes sense that Southeast state people stay within the Southeast states. If you lived in Florida but grew to hate the hot summers, you move to Georgia or South Carolina.
Some sellers got caught when rates rose quickly. We were talking about that townhouse on Bosworth in Southport that wasn’t selling even though the sister unit sold quickly for a premium this spring. (I can’t find a sales price on that townhouse and it’s no longer on the market. Must have withdrawn it.)
But what about this townhouse, also in Southport?
We’ve chattered about this complex in the past. Here’s it’s history according to Redfin:
Sold in September 2008 for $635,000
Sold in December 2016 for $657,500
Originally listed in May 2022 for $799,000
Reduced numerous times
Reduced to $599,000 on August 18, 2022
Under contract on August 26 at $599,000
Wow.
Who will sell in these market conditions? Inventories are going to remain low.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/3923-N-Wayne-Ave-60613/unit-F/home/12755445
[3923 Wayne]
Also $620k in Nov-05 (+cpi = $930k)
and $368k in Jul-98 (+cpi = $668k)
Definitely a solid value at $599k, even with the genuinely funky layout (3d floor laundry?? 12′ high, 9′ wide basement office?, refrigerator where?) and mainly 20 yo finishes.
Has to be one of the bottom 5% of side street blocks in Lakeview. Maybe worse, even. I don’t like parking there to go to the post office.
The fence around the back-end of the CHA property is tall enough that it’s not practical to cut through the alley to the south to get to Southport–which really sucks. Toons is 400′ away by drone (~500 if you could cut through the alley), but a quarter mile walk up to Irving and back.
Might have gotten $799 for it in May-21. Timing can be a major league asshole.
Gary, where will you go with chicagonow shut down?
“Gary, where will you go with chicagonow shut down?”
I’ve been there for 15 years but have also maintained a separate blog on my company Web site. Until recently it focused on the suburbs only.
From the beginning I anticipated CN shutting down someday so I hosted all my images on my own server. I also exported all 1300+ of my posts as it looked more and more likely they were going to shut it down any day. We haven’t imported them into our site yet but will shortly. However, all my new posts go here now: https://lucidrealty.com/blog/
The way Alden Capital/ Tribune handled the shutdown was disgraceful. We really didn’t have any official notice so hundreds of bloggers lost all their work.
“The way Alden Capital/ Tribune handled the shutdown was disgraceful. We really didn’t have any official notice so hundreds of bloggers lost all their work.”
So sorry Gary and to all the other bloggers. I never took Crib Chatter to ChicagoNow for this reason. I really wanted to own my own site. I’m glad you have saved all the posts and can import them to the new site on Lucid Realty’s page.
“Also, for the people trying to post comments just saying that California sucks and it’s “woke” etc. I’m not putting your comments through. This is a site about real estate, believe it or not.“
For years you have allowed anti Jewish comments from Helmetoher to be on this site, yet you draw the line on California = woke?????? You said you couldn’t stop him from posting them. Now you have that power yet won’t stop his comments. It’s the main reason I don’t come to this site often.
Holy smokes you are a massive shill and hypocrite, not to mention a bigot!
“For years you have allowed anti Jewish comments from Helmetoher to be on this site, yet you draw the line on California = woke??????”
Wrong Mike HG. I have deleted every single one of those comments.
I have no tolerance for people bringing Truth Social, MAGA, Qanon or whatever racist, sexist, homophobic, antisemitic comments to this site. I have said this over and over again. It is why the comments are deleted and people are banned.
I’m certainly not going to let someone “new” come here simply to post more of that nonsense on a housing blog.
If you were a regular here Mike HG, you’d already know that HH HAS been banned.
Go pound sand.
“Also, for the people trying to post comments just saying that California sucks and it’s “woke” etc. I’m not putting your comments through. This is a site about real estate, believe it or not.“
Also, this comment of mine that you’re citing was WAY down on that thread. You would really have to be seeking out the negative or controversial comments to run across this one by me, yet it’s the ONLY one you found to talk about. After you yourself said you don’t come to this site often because of HH’s comments.
Why is it that you point out this comment then? Why are you SO upset that I wouldn’t let through another stupid political comment?
Do you want to talk about real estate or do you just come to this site for the “outrage” and to seek out HH’s comments?
Seems like it’s the later Mike HG.
“I have no tolerance for people bringing Truth Social, MAGA, Qanon or whatever racist, sexist, homophobic, antisemitic comments to this site. I have said this over and over again. It is why the comments are deleted and people are banned.”
So basically, you just want an echo chamber to reinforce your beliefs that you’ve carefully honed from watching MSNBC?
While those (like every other source) have their issues, its not like the normie information sources have covered themselves in glory in the last 6 years…
“Do you want to talk about real estate or do you just come to this site for the “outrage” and to seek out HH’s comments?”
I come for your deranged comments
You did not just compare QAnon to “information sources” (normie or otherwise).
Oh, on second reading, I see that you did.
“So basically, you just want an echo chamber to reinforce your beliefs that you’ve carefully honed from watching MSNBC?”
This isn’t a political blog or a social media site. I run it to talk about real estate. If you want to talk about other things, you can go find it elsewhere. Or better yet, start your own blog. Nothing stopping you from running a Chicago real estate blog from Indiana.
Do it.
“Oh, on second reading, I see that you did.”
In the sense that they’re often wrong? Yeah, you got me…
“his isn’t a political blog or a social media site. I run it to talk about real estate.”
How would I know that you wore/wear a pink pussy hat?
How is that RE Related?
“In the sense that they’re often wrong”
So, QAnon is right a decent amount of the time?
Can you cite some of those things they have right?
“So, QAnon is right a decent amount of the time?”
Where did I say that?
“often wrong” (going with your view) is somewhat similar to absolute 100% bullshit 100% of the time?
“While [QANON] (like every other source) have [its] issues, its not like the normie information sources have covered themselves in glory in the last 6 years…”
Seriously dude.
There have been multiple threads in the past twelve months hijacked by HH. Every single one of those threads had back and forth comments between you and him. While you may be deleting his comments a couple weeks later, his posts and your rebuttals suck all the air out of the room on the house or market update on hand. That’s why I’m an infrequent poster.
Nope. Sorry Mike HG. There have NOT been “multiple threads in the past 12 months” where there has been back and forth with HH and the comments weren’t deleted until weeks later.
Nope.
Nope.
Nope.
Sorry.
Again, you clearly aren’t a “regular” here. HH has been banned numerous times on this site. He’s been banned again.
I’m over all this bullshit. You don’t come on for weeks but when you do you comment on one of the political comments- out of ALL the comments? Out of ALL the posts about actual real estate. THAT is the one thing you choose to focus on and then call me names?
Again, who is the “problem” on this blog? Why are you seeking out the crap political comments Mike HG?
We have talked about politics many times on this blog when it is appropriate. Recently, people have commented that women may make a different choice on where they will be living because of the Supreme Court abortion ruling and the actions of some states. This is relevant to housing. Very relevant.
But someone who is new to this site who just wants to start blabbering about the “woke” this or the “woke” that which has nothing to do with anything, yeah, I won’t put those comments through. I don’t care about those comments on this blog. If YOU care, Mike HG, go find a political blog to talk about it on. There are plenty of those.
““often wrong” (going with your view) is somewhat similar to absolute 100% bullshit 100% of the time?
“While [QANON] (like every other source) have [its] issues, its not like the normie information sources have covered themselves in glory in the last 6 years…”
No, one shouldnt blindly trust any news source
“No, one shouldnt blindly trust any news source”
QAnon is a news source?
You’re still creating an equivalence.
My goodness is your 9:32pm post last night embarrassing. The definition of a drunk wine rant. Put the bottle down and get help.
On the plus side, we can hopefully see big price decreases across the skyrocketing price increase cities in the south and west. Cities like Tampa, Miami, Denver, Austin, Boise, etc have had crazy increases that are not sustainable. Hoping to catch the market price bottom next summer as rates continue to increase, the fed causes job losses, etc.
“nobody respects a whiner”
The projection is strong with this one.
“One thing is for sure, all that money we’re sending to a lost cause in Ukraine could be better spent here at home on free college tuition”
I’d rather spend the money to drain the Russian military and their economy than to give it to someone to get a PhD in medieval folk literature.
“I’d rather spend the money to drain the Russian military and their economy than to give it to someone to get a PhD in medieval folk literature.”
Why not do both?
Maybe you’re joking. Because anything that is free is over consumed. I have no interest in paying for more medieval folk literature degrees.
“My goodness is your 9:32pm post last night embarrassing. The definition of a drunk wine rant. Put the bottle down and get help.”
If I didn’t know any better I would think this were…JohnnyU.
When you have NO argument, and you are embarrassed about your comments on this site, you have to revert to the good ole “she’s drunk” winning theme.
LMFAO.
“I have no interest in paying for more medieval folk literature degrees.”
This is really an old guy talking. No offense Gary. You might as well have said, “get off my front lawn.”
Lol.
In polling for the student loan decision, 68% of those aged 18 to 34 approve of the move. And it’s over 50% up to the age of 40. I get it that these are those most impacted. But GenX and Baby Boomers didn’t attend higher education when the loans were these high rates AND could compound for 30 years. Things changed 15 years ago.
“Because anything that is free is over consumed.”
I guess we’re going to find out in Tennessee which has made community college free for all.
Is ANYONE listing anything right now?
Yikes. It is SLOW in Chicago real estate. Rates back to 6%. Will hit the market again in the next 2 months.
“In polling for the student loan decision, 68% of those aged 18 to 34 approve of the move.”
Yeah, people love free shit. There are so many problems with this I can’t list them all. There is a not so hypothetical young woman living in NY. She is frugal beyond belief and was in a graduate program that she could pay for only because she owns nothing and spends no money on clothes, entertainment, or makeup and has a roommate. She was advised by her parents to take out a loan even though she didn’t “need” one. Bingo! She appreciates your generosity. Think she gamed the system? That’s one perspective. Would it have been right for her free spending friends to get a loan while she didn’t?
In addition to helping the truly needy these programs discourage saving. It’s like when I went away to college my parents couldn’t get financial aid while others making more than my parents did get financial aid. Why? Because my parents were insane savers. Went 35 years without a vacation – other than short trips to visit relatives. Never bought a new car until after I was in college. Did not have a mortgage. Always lived below their blue collar, middle class means but maxed out their retirement accounts – and that did not make them UMC – just passionate savers.
Just to clarify in case it’s not obvious…the parents of the young lady in NY gave her the loan advice AFTER Biden promised to forgive student loans.
“I’d rather spend the money to drain the Russian military and their economy than to give it to someone to get a PhD in medieval folk literature.”
You realize we are draining our own military preparedness if you look at stockpiles of weapons and are hurting our own and key allies economies in doing this. Not to mention the knock-on effects of Russia/China/Iran having closer relations; hurting our own relations with India and Saudi; and creating upheaval in other countries (Sri Lanka, Mali, Chad, Burkina Faso, riots and protests taking place in Kenya, Peru, Pakistan, Indonesia) which is likely going to spread to other countries across the globe over the next year. We saw this happen shortly after the GFC which led to the Arab Spring. How did that work out….. These actions are on a much bigger scale.
You don’t even have to look far just look in your backyard in Chicago; 25% of Peoples Gas customers were already late on their bills pre-Russia/Ukraine, where is it going to be come March/April 35% – 40%?
“In polling for the student loan decision, 68% of those aged 18 to 34 approve of the move. And it’s over 50% up to the age of 40”
Lets poll this in a year from now and see where we are at. The constitutionality of this EO is likely going to be challenged and will be tough to withstand but the bigger challenge of this EO is going to be the actual implementation. The Education Department couldn’t even effectively run the smaller loan forgiveness programs it already had…. how the heck is it going to pull this one off? They literally needs months of advance notice just to turn payments back on because they are using coding software from the 80’s….
The other issue that’s going underreported is the IDR portion being capped at 5% or 10% for undergrads/graduates over 10/20 years. Who is going to track this is the IRS and their new 80K agents getting access to the Department of Education Student Loan Database and cross-referencing this to their tax forms filed or is the hope to push the 5%/10% IDR’s onto employers as a 401K type matching or benefit that the employee never has to pay for. After the 10 or 20 years how is the remaining balance treated as forgivable debt which is then considered taxable income?
With the IDR’s now if i’m a college why wouldn’t i just continue jacking up tuition and say to the prospective student just take out bigger loans because your repayments are capped at a percentage of your income so the loan balance doesn’t matter. Then if i’m a State with a budget shortfall or other pressing spending needs why not cut grant money and university funding since the student can just take on a bigger loan from Uncle Sam without the negative consequences of trying to figure out how to pay it back?
If i’m a parent why would i even save for my kids college now? There’s no point.
Overall, i’m fine with some forgiveness if its coupled with actual reform of college financing and capping tuition/limiting the amount needed to borrow for student loans in the future. The initial rollout of this sounds nice to alot of people but the implementation is going to be a mess and this has a strong chance in being a boondoggle if it ever sees the light of day.
“In polling for the student loan decision, 68% of those aged 18 to 34 approve of the move. And it’s over 50% up to the age of 40. I get it that these are those most impacted. But GenX and Baby Boomers didn’t attend higher education when the loans were these high rates AND could compound for 30 years. Things changed 15 years ago”
So give away free money & dont address the problem
Another brilliant policy
BTW – is this directly related to Chicago RE?
“I guess we’re going to find out in Tennessee which has made community college free for all.”
Whats the cost differential between a 2 year CC Vs 4 year Uni?
“If i’m a parent why would i even save for my kids college now? There’s no point.”
You clearly are NOT a parent- at least of any child older than 2 years old.
Do you honestly think $10k covers college? And that that will somehow be a deterrent to parents saving for college?
Isn’t the bigger deterrent the schools that give out free tuition to the middle class families? Why save anything at all if your kid is going to get free tuition as you only make $70,000 a year.
Have we heard of that happening yet? Because the “free” tuition programs have been around for many years now.
Also, anyone who thinks a middle class family can actually “save” to cover their child’s college isn’t in the real world and doesn’t have any idea what the costs are like now. Even to go to your local state U.
“You don’t even have to look far just look in your backyard in Chicago; 25% of Peoples Gas customers were already late on their bills pre-Russia/Ukraine, where is it going to be come March/April 35% – 40%?”
WP: You keep mentioning this stat and I have debunked it at least once already.
What was this like pre-pandemic? If you go and look you’ll find that 25% were late on their bills.
It’s really NOT a thing. People have struggled to pay it for years (decades?)
BUT- if natural gas prices remain elevated it’s going to be another stress this winter. And I would hate to live in part of the country that uses heating oil. Buckle up.
“Why? Because my parents were insane savers. Went 35 years without a vacation – other than short trips to visit relatives. Never bought a new car until after I was in college.”
I’m sorry your parents literally spent their entire adult lives without a vacation Gary. If anything, that comment is reason enough to agree that the higher education system is messed up. Because that’s really unhealthy.
I don’t know where you lived Gary but most of my middle class parents/friends didn’t have any trouble taking vacations and paying for college. It was so much cheaper back then. In Illinois, there was an Illinois state scholarship plan where they gave you like $2,000 a year for tuition if you had a certain GPA. All of my friends got it. Tuition at U of I was like $5k a year back then so it covered nearly half of the cost. It was a really good deal.
Unfortunately, the scholarship didn’t increase with the costs of college. I think it’s still like $2,000 a year. Better than not getting it, but doesn’t come close to covering half the cost. It’s a bit of a joke now.
I don’t understand the bitterness about helping our young people pay for college just because you, or your parents, saved. It only goes to help society. Heck, young people are trying to go to college in Europe now because the cost is half the cost in the US. It’s a mess.
And if you honestly think that today’s “blue collar” middle class can save for their kids college, you are just really out of the loop. Heck, I know people who are upper middle class and can’t do it with 2 kids or more. Even most upper middle class kids have college loans now even if they went to the state public uni.
Sabrina wrong again like always
“In polling for the student loan decision, 68% of those aged 18 to 34 approve of the move. And it’s over 50% up to the age of 40. I get it that these are those most impacted. But GenX and Baby Boomers didn’t attend higher education when the loans were these high rates AND could compound for 30 years. Things changed 15 years ago.“
Actual polling by left leaning yougov
https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1565050102389121027
Clear majorities think it is unfair no matter how the question is framed.
Backed up by right leaning cato institute with a different question.
https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1565363121824358400
Also, these comments about the student loan forgiveness just make me wonder what the discussion was like when they decided the government would provide “free” education through 12th grade.
It wasn’t always so. We take it for granted now as a no-brainer. Some countries STILL make you pay once you get past 8th grade. Imagine if we provided it free through college like Saudi Arabia and some countries do?
Again, some states are starting to offer free community college. It should start paying off in the next 10 years for those states.
“Sabrina wrong again like always”
Nope. Just saw the poll two days ago in the Washington Post.
I’m sure there are polls from before it was announced and some from after it. And yes, it depends on how the question is asked. But the policy is very popular with people 40 and under. Gosh, maybe it’s because over 40 million of them are impacted.
Let’s help our young people. It’s not their fault that education is out of reach now. If we don’t help them, we will continue to see the labor shortages we’re seeing now. It will get worse.
See Kentucky, for example. It’s now going to pay $20k in tuition for people in nursing school because it needs 5,000 nurses and debt is one of the obstacles to people getting the training.
“I’m sure there are polls from before it was announced and some from after it. And yes, it depends on how the question is asked. But the policy is very popular with people 40 and under. Gosh, maybe it’s because over 40 million of them are impacted.”
Correct. The student debt announcement and overturning Roe are the two best things to happen for Democrats leading in to midterms. Not that they won’t ultimately be toast (perhaps still in the midterms, but what was once certain doom is now at least up in the air, though there’s little chance of victory in 24), and not that the outlook for the nation is very promising (what with the armed fascist movement arguably past the point of containment and the millions of regular GOP voters giving little more than a complicit shrug to the whole thing), but the political situation is better than it was just a few months ago.
“make me wonder what the discussion was like when they decided the government would provide “free” education through 12th grade.”
Huh? Government doesn’t pay for K- 12 education mainly property owners do through property taxes and employees and employers pay through income taxes – local and state governments don’t have their own currency to print like the Federal Government.
“Imagine if we provided it free through college like Saudi Arabia and some countries do”
Really… Saudi Arabia? You want an actual Class system based on complete loyalty to the State? Haven’t you been yelling fascism and democracy for the past how many years?
Also, even if you look at Europe’s system you think a better option is for all kids when they are 12/13/14 years old taking a test that literally determines what they can and can’t do as a career. Look at how many people change their majors or don’t know what they want to do at 18/19/20+ years old currently today. Their systems suck. No thank you.
“What was this like pre-pandemic? If you go and look you’ll find that 25% were late on their bills.”
You sure about that from March 11, 2020…. “According to Crain’s Chicago Business, nearly 100,000 Chicagoans were eligible to have their gas cut off last year because they had missed monthly payments.”
Nearly 100K households in 2019…..
https://news.wttw.com/2020/03/11/lawmakers-press-peoples-gas-high-utility-bills
“Do you honestly think $10k covers college? And that that will somehow be a deterrent to parents saving for college?”
If you actually read the comment I posted you would have seen it didn’t have to do with the $10K. Actually look at the EO Biden announced which also includes an IDR that caps payments on student loan recipients at 5% of their income after they graduate for 10 years for undergrad graduates and a cap of 10% of their income for 20 years for grad school graduates. after the 10 or 20 years the rest is forgiven…..
There’s no point in saving for college if the Feds are capping the amount your child has to payback after they graduate based on a pretty low percentage of their income which may ultimately be covered by their employer anyway.
“Have we heard of that happening yet? Because the “free” tuition programs have been around for many years now.”
The EO has nothing to do with tuition it has to do with Student Loans and repayment of said loans which can be taken out to cover non-tuition expenses as well all of which will now be forgiven through the IDR after 10 or 20 years of relatively low payments before the rest is completely forgiven with no accountability to the pricing the universities are charging.
“In Illinois, there was an Illinois state scholarship plan where they gave you like $2,000 a year for tuition if you had a certain GPA. All of my friends got it. Tuition at U of I was like $5k a year back then so it covered nearly half of the cost. It was a really good deal.
Unfortunately, the scholarship didn’t increase with the costs of college. I think it’s still like $2,000 a year. Better than not getting it, but doesn’t come close to covering half the cost. It’s a bit of a joke now.”
God you are old. I went there in the mid 90’s and it was $7k/yr. When were you at UofI, 1980?
Unless your “friends” were Ed majors and they taught the same number of years they received the scholarship, this is BS
“Let’s help our young people. It’s not their fault that education is out of reach now. If we don’t help them, we will continue to see the labor shortages we’re seeing now. It will get worse.”
Boomers like you are the reason
Also tell me you havent been in a dorm in 30 years without telling me you havent been in a dorm in 30 years
You want to help kids, make the colleges cosign the loan
They need to have some skin in the game
https://fortune.com/2022/08/31/housing-market-recession-to-be-even-bigger-in-2023-forecast-goldman-sachs/
BUy nOW Or bE PrICeD OuT fOReVer!
“Correct. The student debt announcement and overturning Roe are the two best things to happen for Democrats leading in to midterms. Not that they won’t ultimately be toast (perhaps still in the midterms, but what was once certain doom is now at least up in the air, though there’s little chance of victory in 24), and not that the outlook for the nation is very promising (what with the armed fascist movement arguably past the point of containment and the millions of regular GOP voters giving little more than a complicit shrug to the whole thing), but the political situation is better than it was just a few months ago.”
Keep telling yourself this
Their inability to think/act Strategically Vs Tactically is going to bite them in the ass again a few years down the line. Its a pretty big gamble that the $10k is going to motivate enough young voters in areas that arent already strongly Dem to offset the non-college middle class in swing states
I eagerly await the $2500 grants for firearm purchases and $10k 4X4 Pickup loan forgiveness plans in 2024
“Its a pretty big gamble that the $10k is going to motivate enough young voters in areas that arent already strongly Dem to offset the non-college middle class in swing states”
Yes, the non-college middle class in swing states has been reliably voting against their own interests for a while now, but the student debt thing is a part of their world too. Lots of people in that group with loans for degrees they never finished – some are young voters, others are the parents of young voters. Lots of nurses, teachers, cops, small biz owners with nagging little loan balances. I think that’s partly why a lot (but not all) GOP politicians’ outrage was pretty short-lived (that, and the fact that many of them quickly learned that their and their friends’ PPP loan forgiveness history is easy to discover and share). And there are some big things in the student loan deal; the $10k is probably a few things down from the top of the list. Even if I were eligible, $10k is a rounding error for my student loans.
It’s not an issue that moves the needle. Better to save one’s political capital for things that matter.
if the money was not disbursed as payroll, that should get crucified.
But it’s a farce to compare PPP to this
Goebbels would have been impressed
What else is in the EO?
“BUy nOW Or bE PrICeD OuT fOReVer!”
Life goes on. People have kids to raise. Places they need to be. That’s why there are still a lot of sales going on. How many bought at the “bottom” in 2012? Not many because they are living.
We’re a monthly payment nation. When we can afford the payment, we buy. It’s as simple as that.
But yes, these 6% rates are really going to bite in the cities that saw home prices double over the last 10 years. Affordability is going to be an issue in 2023 especially if the Fed has to do more than what people think. What if we get 7% rates again? Good luck California, Boise, heck, Florida will crash again.
Yikes.
“Boomers like you are the reason”
I told you, I’m a member of the Silent Generation. College was cheap for us.
My kids were just in the dorms JohnnyU. My friends kids are still applying and everyone is still in that system. I have a pretty good handle on how it works as I just paid all the bills. Lol.
“They need to have some skin in the game”
Huh? Again, it’s clear that many people here have no idea how much college costs today. Frankly, many kids are better off not going to college. But trade school can be pricey too. I’m glad to see some states making community college free. That’s really going to help a lot of kids who want an alternative and only need an associates degree.
“God you are old. I went there in the mid 90’s and it was $7k/yr. When were you at UofI, 1980?”
Silent Generation JohnnyU. The scholarship covered nearly half the cost (in-state cost, of course.) It was a deal. We didn’t have the debt issues that the current generation has because in the interim, costs are going up double digits every few years. It’s outrageous. And no middle class, or even upper middle class, parent can keep up. Even if they squirrel away $500 a month, which is really difficult to do if you have multiple kids AND you’re saving for retirement.
And the poor families who now are also dealing with car payments averaging $500 a month too?
It just can’t be done for the middle class. That’s why so many schools are covering tuition for those kids but you still have room and board and other costs which are very high. And if you have several kids it’s just really outrageous now.
But do your shopping. The schools will try and lure students, especially if the student has top grades or a special skill that is needed.
“The EO has nothing to do with tuition it has to do with Student Loans and repayment of said loans which can be”
Please go read up the thread WP. Gary said he’s against it because anything that is “free” is overconsumed.
So are the kids getting free tuition because they are middle and working class overconsuming now? Because those programs have been around for 5+ years now. Under Gary’s theory, they would be.
“You sure about that from March 11, 2020…. “According to Crain’s Chicago Business, nearly 100,000 Chicagoans were eligible to have their gas cut off last year because they had missed monthly payments.”
“Nearly 100K households in 2019…..”
Yep. We discussed this already last year when you brought up the “gloom” that all these people had missed their payments and doom was coming.
I said you had to compare it to other years, and even just that month, and when you do, it’s not really any different. There are always a lot of people who have missed payments.
“Huh? Government doesn’t pay for K- 12 education mainly property owners do through property taxes and employees and employers pay through income taxes – local and state governments don’t have their own currency to print like the Federal Government.”
No one said anything about the Feds. I said, “the government.”
And more stupidity from the bears on this blog. Happens every single day. This is why I said, “gosh, wonder what it was like when they extended school to 12th grade.” Now we know. A bunch of people screaming and bitter because they didn’t get it or they had to pay for it before it kicked in.
Thank goodness our political leaders can rise above it like in Kentucky and Tennessee where they are doing the right thing by getting rid of tuition or offering to pay it through scholarships.
“Huh? Again, it’s clear that many people here have no idea how much college costs today. Frankly, many kids are better off not going to college. But trade school can be pricey too. I’m glad to see some states making community college free. That’s really going to help a lot of kids who want an alternative and only need an associates degree.”
Sober up are read what I wrote
If colleges had to cosign the loans and bore the risk you’d see a lot more selective acceptance and a halt to tuition inflation via out of control admin costs
“Thank goodness our political leaders can rise above it like in Kentucky and Tennessee where they are doing the right thing by getting rid of tuition or offering to pay it through scholarships.”
So you live in TN or KY now?
2 red states and Gov fatfuck is doing what, stuffing Ho-Ho’s into his gullet?
“Silent Generation JohnnyU. The scholarship covered nearly half the cost (in-state cost, of course.) It was a deal. We didn’t have the debt issues that the current generation has because in the interim, costs are going up double digits every few years. It’s outrageous. And no middle class, or even upper middle class, parent can keep up. Even if they squirrel away $500 a month, which is really difficult to do if you have multiple kids AND you’re saving for retirement.”
Why is it growing at an exponential rate?
Answer that and you can start controlling costs
“Silent Generation JohnnyU. The scholarship covered nearly half the cost (in-state cost, of course.) It was a deal.”
And gas was a nickel
“I told you, I’m a member of the Silent Generation. College was cheap for us.
My kids were just in the dorms JohnnyU. My friends kids are still applying and everyone is still in that system.”
The Silent Generation was born 1928-1945, meaning you are 77-94 years old??? Something doesn’t add up…
“And gas was a nickel”
———-
With lead in it.
Mortgage rates as high as 6.23% this week. The fall market is going to be dead in the water. Some buyers would have locked in at 5% so those buyers will continue to look to buy over the next 60 days. But by the time we get to November, if these higher rates stick around for a few weeks, it’s going to really slow housing to a crawl.
Could we see 6.5% or even 7% by the end of the year?
You just won’t list, unless you HAVE to sell your house. You will wait for rates to “come down” next year. And the same for buyers. You will rent for the next year and wait.
Everything will be on hold. No real price declines, either, because sellers aren’t going to “give it away” and will just withdraw the listing rather than doing so.
“Mortgage rates as high as 6.23% this week. The fall market is going to be dead in the water. Some buyers would have locked in at 5% so those buyers will continue to look to buy over the next 60 days. But by the time we get to November, if these higher rates stick around for a few weeks, it’s going to really slow housing to a crawl.
Could we see 6.5% or even 7% by the end of the year?”
But Muh Demographics
“You just won’t list, unless you HAVE to sell your house. You will wait for rates to “come down” next year. And the same for buyers. You will rent for the next year and wait.”
I thought rents were too high?
I almost feel bad for anyone that took your shilling/advice and bought a 2/2. Hope you enjoy your 1200 sf of faux lux.
“Everything will be on hold. No real price declines, either, because sellers aren’t going to “give it away” and will just withdraw the listing rather than doing so”
I thought boomers and other olds like yourself would be moving/downsizing? Are they going to delay relocating to Fl/Az/etc?
LOL there is no one more delusional than “I know what I’ve got here” sellers
Can you concretely state what you consider “Price Declines”?
“The Silent Generation was born 1928-1945, meaning you are 77-94 years old??? Something doesn’t add up…”
Who knew JoeZ was a granny chaser
“You realize we are draining our own military preparedness if you look at stockpiles of weapons and are hurting our own and key allies economies in doing this.”
The combined GDP of the US and the EU is 28 X that of Russia. We can easily outspend them. In fact if every dollar we spend on military support weakens the Russian military by one dollar then that grows our advantage over them. Let them take Ukraine and they will surely attempt to reconstruct the Soviet Union and be much stronger in the end. Not to mention that it opens the door for China to take Taiwan. That’s not a reasonable option.
“I’m sorry your parents literally spent their entire adult lives without a vacation Gary. If anything, that comment is reason enough to agree that the higher education system is messed up. Because that’s really unhealthy.
I don’t know where you lived Gary but most of my middle class parents/friends didn’t have any trouble taking vacations and paying for college.”
Your response reveals the problem we have. You make it sound like my parents were victims, that they had no choice, and couldn’t take vacations that they were entitled to. That is just the opposite of the case. My parents CHOSE to live like this because they wanted their kids to have a good life. They didn’t feel like victims and didn’t feel like they were entitled to anything. Their saving was not about scrimping money together for college. It was to have a comfortable retirement.
“I don’t understand the bitterness about helping our young people pay for college just because you, or your parents, saved. It only goes to help society.”
The bitterness is about the lack of personal responsibility. There needs to be an ROI on a college education and the only way to ensure that is to make sure that some combination of the school and the student has skin in the game. And you can ridicule me all you want but the fact of the matter is that there are a ton of degrees that have negative ROI. Investing in negative ROI projects consumes wealth.
“Heck, I know people who are upper middle class and can’t do it with 2 kids or more. Even most upper middle class kids have college loans now even if they went to the state public uni.”
I’d like to see how they spend their money. When my kids were born I looked up the cost of 4 years private tuition and that was my savings goal. I socked away the money as fast as I could and regularly checked where I was vs. the current cost. With stock market appreciation I ended up overshooting my goals. We always lived below our means but comfortably. Over the course of my life I’ve seen countless examples of people who lived at or above their means and it didn’t end well. The biggest mistake I’ve seen people make? Assuming they would always make as much money as they currently were making. I always lived like I was going to lose my job tomorrow and a couple of times I did.
“Also, these comments about the student loan forgiveness just make me wonder what the discussion was like when they decided the government would provide “free” education through 12th grade.”
The difference is that the K-12 education mostly has a good ROI. For the most part kids don’t get to take fluff classes. The state has minimum proficiency standards. Now, if you want to require kids to study personal financial management, civics, STEM, logic, critical reading, writing, and biology in college then we can have a different conversation. Or I’d be willing to pay for trade school as well. God give us more good carpenters and electricians!
Gas was a nickel.
Give me a break. First of all, my mom was born in 1946 and she doesn’t remember gas ever being below about 20 cents a gallon. It was regularly around 30 cents in the 1960s.
And adjusted for inflation, that’s close to $3 a gallon now. Not far off what most of the US (outside of Chicago and California) tends to be paying at the moment.
” A bunch of people screaming and bitter because they didn’t get it or they had to pay for it before it kicked in.”
Again, you can’t bother to read and comprehend my comments… I have no problem with the $10K or $20K forgiveness so long as it is accompanied by actual reforms of the student loan and university/college systems. This EO did not do that which is my problem. I also don’t know how the Education Department is actually going to be able to implement this in an effective or efficient way. I also don’t know if this will get through the courts.
I guess a little nuance is too difficult for the MSDNC folk.
And for your adjusted gas cost of the national average now of around $3.80 a gallon, your car goes three times as far on a gallon as a car did in the 1960s. Which means gas costs a lot LESS now for what you get.
And it doesn’t poison you and your kids with lead.
People complaining about gas prices (which even now compose about 3% of the average family’s budget) don’t know how good they have it.
WP,
I’m pretty liberal on social issues (not economic ones), but I don’t watch MSNBC, CNN, Fox or any other news channel (except the WGN news sometimes).
I agree Biden’s loan forgiveness move was a shameless attempt to buy votes from young people. I hope it works, actually, though I won’t get into why for fear of breaking site rules on political rants.
Having said that, the entire higher education system needs reform. Way beyond debate. I say that as a parent.
We just dropped our second (and youngest) child off at a pretty exclusive East Coast liberal arts college, and our older child graduated from a highly-rated private liberal arts college in Pennsylvania earlier this year.
Our older son’s experience was great and I’m glad we spent the money. He became a more well-rounded person and got familiar with a lot of thoughts and people he wouldn’t have encountered otherwise. He’s now gainfully employed doing a job he likes that required his degree. Our second son is someone who definitely will benefit from college because he’s into STEM and needs to learn more chem, bio, calc, etc.
But for moat employers outside of specialties like medicine or life sciences, the college degree is more of a proof that a kid can get through four years and be dedicated and committed to something, not that they’ll be great at the job, necessarily.
“The combined GDP of the US and the EU is 28 X that of Russia. We can easily outspend them.”
I’m not just talking about Russia…..
“In fact if every dollar we spend on military support weakens the Russian military by one dollar then that grows our advantage over them.”
Yet the Russian Government’s current account surplus ballooned 3x during the 1H of 22 to $167Bn compared to the 1H 21. Lots of money to pay mercenaries and rebels to come fight in Ukraine. Russia did this in Syria last decade.
“Let them take Ukraine and they will surely attempt to reconstruct the Soviet Union and be much stronger in the end.”
They wouldn’t be able to control/govern Ukraine. The Donbas region has been in civil war for what 7 years now…..
“Not to mention that it opens the door for China to take Taiwan. That’s not a reasonable option.”
What happens if China attempts to take over Taiwan anyway? They are studying and preparing based on the response to Ukraine. Go look at what they have been doing over the Taiwan strait since Pelosi’s visit.
We have depleted significant amounts of our weapons stockpiles by sending them to Ukraine and to rebuild these stockpiles we are reliant on chips from Taiwan that China is likely to invade at some point in the near future. At the same time we are also bombing Syria and having issues with Iran again.
If/when China invades Taiwan you also have to worry about North Korea saying they will nuke South Korea, Japan, etc.
“I agree Biden’s loan forgiveness move was a shameless attempt to buy votes from young people”
The core constituency of the democratic party is urbanites with college degrees. I don’t look at it as a shameless attempt to buy votes since this is what he promised on the campaign trail and what a sizeable portion of his base wants congress to do. If he were truly trying to buy votes he would have gone Elizabeth Warren/Chuck Schumer and forgiven $50K or everything.
We will see though if it makes it through the courts and if it can actually be implemented effectively by the Department of Education. This could turn into a boondoggle in a year or two where no one gets anything and the interest accrues and compounds after turning back on January 1 where people thought they were getting forgiveness that ends up not happening and are left with bigger debts than what they have currently.
WP,
Yes, many global corporations have stopped exporting to Russia so of course their current account surplus is going to go up. That might be meaningful if the government controlled the entire economy but it doesn’t. Private citizens are sending less money out of the country. That doesn’t mean the government gets to spend it. Their GDP is going to be down 7% this year and their stock market is down like 30%. Not good for them.
You’re holding up Donbas as evidence that the Russians can’t control Ukraine but I thought it was the Ukrainian army fighting the Russians there. If the Russians destroy the Ukrainian army problem solved.
The Chinese are going to do what they are going to do with Taiwan but we shouldn’t tell them we’ll roll over. Same for North Korea.
And we can rebuild our weapon stockpile by writing more checks. Sign me up to pay for that.
And it looks like market forces are working. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/09/02/college-major-regrets/
The student loan forgiveness is insulting to those of us that can think more than one or two moves. Many of us made some significant personal and career choices knowing we were on the hook for student loan debt.
I want to see the system changed. Schools need some skin in the game so they are not incentivized to continually raise tuition knowing their students can simply go into debt. The schools should have to guarantee some portion of the students debt.
“The student loan forgiveness is insulting to those of us that can think more than one or two moves. Many of us made some significant personal and career choices knowing we were on the hook for student loan debt.”
I could see the outrage if it were total forgiveness, i.e., of a student borrower’s entire balance. But it’s $10k. Are you even eligible for the forgiveness (i.e., do you make little enough)? It’s not like this means that UMC folks who have loans will now be able to take a lavish trip or buy a fancier car or stove, things that you perhaps forwent because of your college costs/debt. I’d be living in a house that costs twice as much as the one I have were it not for my student loans. I’m not eligible for the forgivness. But it’s $10k. Who cares. That’s about what soccer runs us. There are all sorts of things that people are spared today that people just a genration or two ago had to endure.
Anonny, if $10k is so insignificant, they should be able to pay it off… why not payoff $10k in credit cards? Why not payoff the plumber’s f250? Everybody has a sob story or could use $10k.
As a taxpayer, we are always paying for things we don’t always agree with. However, at some point we have to cutoff these handouts whether it is business subsidies or forgiving student loans.
No one is forced to take on student loans and choosing majors is a personal choice. Figuring out the ROI of college and majors wasn’t rocket science and I went before the internet was even a thing and the info readily available.
“I could see the outrage if it were total forgiveness, i.e., of a student borrower’s entire balance.”
anonny, were you “outraged” about your law school peers who chose to go into public service law and had ALL of their law school tuition debt forgiven?
Are people “outraged” that those who go into the Peace Corp for 2 years can tap the Coverdell scholarships that, at some schools, provide completely free tuition for graduate degrees?
Are people “outraged” that taxpayers with children get tax credits and those without do not? Why is the childless taxpayer “penalized”? The ones with children made that choice. Why does the government give them incentives for that lifestyle?
“anonny, were you “outraged” about your law school peers who chose to go into public service law and had ALL of their law school tuition debt forgiven?”
Not even a little bit.
“And we can rebuild our weapon stockpile by writing more checks”
You need chips from Taiwan to rebuild those stockpiles….
“You’re holding up Donbas as evidence that the Russians can’t control Ukraine but I thought it was the Ukrainian army fighting the Russians there”
My understanding was it started as a proxy war with the Russian Government funneling money and influencing elections to Russia sympathizers who were fighting against the Ukrainian Government for independence.
“Their GDP is going to be down 7% this year and their stock market is down like 30%. Not good for them.”
How’s the Eurozone stock market and GDP doing… Come winter some of these countries will go into recession due to the price of nat gas/electricity. The politicians are likely to capitulate on support for Russia sanctions.
Over the weekend Politico reported that the party that is likely to win the election in Italy at the end of this month is running on a platform questioning the sanctions:
“Do we have to defend Ukraine? Yes,” Salvini said. “But I would not want the sanctions to harm those who impose them more than those who are hit by them.”
“if we adopt an instrument to hurt the aggressor and after seven months of war it has not been hurt, at least considering a change seems legitimate to me”
“He argued a European response is needed to calm energy prices or thousands of jobs could be lost. “We certainly need a European shield, like during COVID,” Salvini said.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/italys-salvini-says-west-should-rethink-sanctions-for-russia/
“if $10k is so insignificant, they should be able to pay it off… why not payoff $10k in credit cards? Why not payoff the plumber’s f250? Everybody has a sob story or could use $10k.”
The Government isn’t in the credit card or auto lending business like it is in the Student Loan or Mortgage business.
“My understanding was it started as a proxy war with the Russian Government funneling money and influencing elections to Russia sympathizers who were fighting against the Ukrainian Government for independence.”
The pro-Ukraine side of things would say that you are repeating Putin’s propaganda.
“Not even a little bit.”
I didn’t think so. That’s why most people aren’t actually “outraged” by this $10,000 either. Even upper middle class kids have loans now if the parents have more than one child. Few people have the firepower to save several hundred thousands of dollars so all their kids can go to college debt-free. This is why it’s a popular decision.
It’s only the old-timers who are complaining about it. This is just like when you try and pass a bond provision for the local schools and all the older folks, without kids in the schools, rise up against it.
Taking advantage of military, public service, or employer loan forgiveness is not remotely the same thing as just arbitrarily having loans forgiven with zero requirements from the borrower.
“That’s why most people aren’t actually “outraged” by this $10,000 either. ”
“It’s only the old-timers who are complaining about it. ”
you live in a bubble.
“ It’s only the old-timers who are complaining about it.”
Tell me you don’t know anyone working in the trades or blue collar jobs, without telling me you don’t know anyone working in the trades or blue collar jobs
You are completely out of touch asking a UMC lawyer (no offense anonny) his opinion and extrapolating this to the rest of America. You have a strange wont to make anything where you get a perceived benefit viewed as the will of the people.
Comparing this to ElEd is dishonest, even for you
Puts you shilling to shame
“Much of the money sent is unaccounted for, people like Gary don’t even do rudimentary analysis. Weapon systems don’t make it to the front, have no spare parts back-up, it’s a colossal boondoggle. Much of the funding ends up in bank accounts in Tel Aviv or Bahamas.”
So where is your analysis? What are your sources for these baseless assertions?
“Would the USA allow China to put nukes in northern Mexico? Of course not.”
Makes perfect sense because then China could strike us with nuclear missiles, right?
“Russia is reclaiming its historical territory: Odessa, Mariupol, Kherson, Kharkiv, coast of Asov, Crimea etc. These are all Russian places historically. The Ukraine border in 1991 is artificial when you look back at history.”
What about the Scythians? Don’t they have a legitimate claim?
“It’s a Russian-speaking border skirmish that has nothing to do with the USA, and the money would be better spent helping Americans or protecting our own border.”
I guess we should have ignored Hitler as well.
“My understanding was it started as a proxy war with the Russian Government funneling money and influencing elections to Russia sympathizers who were fighting against the Ukrainian Government for independence.”
If it’s Russian sympathizers fighting Ukrainian soldiers then it doesn’t serve to inform us of Russia’s ability to hold the country.
“How’s the Eurozone stock market and GDP doing… Come winter some of these countries will go into recession due to the price of nat gas/electricity. The politicians are likely to capitulate on support for Russia sanctions.”
We’ll see. Prior to this gas shutdown the European Union’s GDP was forecast to grow. I haven’t heard anyone discussing the impact on Russia of losing these gas revenues. Now Russia is having to buy additional weapons from North Korea. What does that tell you? It could be interesting. We’ll learn something about North Korea’s capabilities in the process.
Also, Russia just killed the long term market for their gas. Who’s going to want to buy from them except for maybe China but I don’t think the pipelines exist to pick up the slack.
“Tell me you don’t know anyone working in the trades or blue collar jobs, without telling me you don’t know anyone working in the trades or blue collar jobs”
The trade schools get the $10k JohnnyU. If you have federal loans, you get the deal.
Lol.
Who doesn’t know what is going on out there? You don’t.
“you live in a bubble.”
Again, ALL of the polling shows that this is very favorable program for 43 million Americans who will benefit. Most are under the age of 50 (but not all).
It’s the old people who went to school, like I did, on an Illinois State Scholarship that paid for 50% of my tuition that are crying, “how dare they!”
It’s a “border skirmish” Gary, which as apparently has killed 50,000+ Russians.
I’m surprised Putin isn’t doing a draft but he can’t afford to, politically.
“Tell me you don’t know anyone working in the trades or blue collar jobs, without telling me you don’t know anyone working in the trades or blue collar jobs”
“Lol.
Who doesn’t know what is going on out there? You don’t.”
Tonight on Smartline: Student loan forgiveness: argle-bargle or foofaraw?
“polling”
lol…how accurate was the polling during the last election cycles?
“If it’s Russian sympathizers fighting Ukrainian soldiers then it doesn’t serve to inform us of Russia’s ability to hold the country”
If the sympathizers are/were successful in claiming “independence” from Ukraine I think the thought was that area could/would then ally or be part of Russia. Much easier for Russia to control a smaller area of Ukraine especially if the people of that area have closer ties to Russia then Ukraine i.e. language, culture, history, etc.
“I haven’t heard anyone discussing the impact on Russia of losing these gas revenues.”
They are making more money on gas which is why they are able to shutdown nordstream access to Europe. They are selling that gas to China, India, UAE, etc. at higher prices then what they were selling to Europe. In turn India and the UAE is able to purchase at a discount to current spot prices refine it in country and turn around and sell it back to Europe and the US and current spot prices.
“Now Russia is having to buy additional weapons from North Korea. What does that tell you? It could be interesting.”
This one is pretty bad regardless of the rationale. North Korea does have a large stockpile and needs money. Russia may be going through weapons faster than they can replace them which may or may not be due to the sanctions. I am curious if we see some reports down the road that China is manufacturing these weapons to funnel to Russia through North Korea. This would be quite the escalation.
“Who’s going to want to buy from them except for maybe China but I don’t think the pipelines exist to pick up the slack.”
China, India, Saudi, Iran, UAE, Brazil, probably most of Africa, maybe Turkey. You can sell to one country as a conduit or pass through to another country as the Russian flag won’t be on that barrel or tanker. Russian Gas/Oil is still being used in the US.
Russia built the Power of Siberia Pipeline which became operational in 2019 to send gas to China. Russia sent 16.5 billion cubic meters of gas to China in 2019 which is the same amount they exported to Europe and the UK.
“Again, ALL of the polling shows that this is very favorable program”
It took 20+ years for Dems to get some prescription drug pricing reform which polled at 70%+ favorability across Republicans, Independents and 80%+ for Democrats. How many people in November are going to vote because of this issue? Not many….
I don’t think student loan forgiveness regardless of current popularity is going to get people to the polls to vote like say abortion, crime, trump, immigration, and the economy will.
“The trade schools get the $10k JohnnyU. If you have federal loans, you get the deal.
Lol.
Who doesn’t know what is going on out there? You don’t.”
So what you are saying is you dont know any blue collar folks or tradesmen?
Makes sense
“So what you are saying is you dont know any blue collar folks or tradesmen?”
I think some of them have some lingering student loan debt. Others have spouses or kids who do. Again, I’m not counting on them to suddenly stop voting against their economic interests, and to echo WP, I think the abortion issue will do more to win some swing votes (plenty of blue collar folks have been involved with abortions), but I do think the student loan issue is more of a positive than a negative for Democrats when it comes to blue collar or the trades, which is why Republicans mostly moved on pretty quickly from that outrage to the next.
“I think some of them have some lingering student loan debt.”
How many?
“Others have spouses or kids who do.”
Again how many?
“Again, I’m not counting on them to suddenly stop voting against their economic interests,”
Paying for someones college is against their economic self interest? Let me know when the college grads are willing to pay for their mechanics Snap-on tool set for F250
Also paraphrasing Krugman or other leftwing “looking out for the little guy” is clownshoes
“And to echo WP, I think the abortion issue will do more to win some swing votes (plenty of blue collar folks have been involved with abortions)”
Its not in the top 5 of reasons they’d vote
“but I do think the student loan issue is more of a positive than a negative for Democrats when it comes to blue collar or the trades, which is why Republicans mostly moved on pretty quickly from that outrage to the next.”
Disagree. Why interrupt your enemy when they’re stepping on their crank.
This plays a lot differently in the rust belt then in states that are a foregone conclusion
“This plays a lot differently in the rust belt then in states that are a foregone conclusion.”
It does? Is that why the Democrats might take the Ohio and Wisconsin Senate seats?
If anything, the loan forgiveness plays even bigger in the rust belt because there are a lot of people with loans from their trade school, community college etc. that will really see a big benefit. And they feel “seen” that it isn’t just about the 4-year college students alone.
But let’s be honest, abortion is going to be the game changer this fall. Women are pissed again. We will turn out in record numbers again.
“So what you are saying is you dont know any blue collar folks or tradesmen?”
Do auto and airline mechanics count?
“I don’t think student loan forgiveness regardless of current popularity is going to get people to the polls to vote like say abortion, crime, trump, immigration, and the economy will.”
Agreed on student loan forgiveness and the drug plan. Gas prices have come way down so the economy is not going to be an issue in the mid-terms either. Consumer spending patterns in August already showed that people returned to eating out, going to movies, vacationing and whatnot that they pulled back on when gas prices were at 10 year highs in June/July. Consumer sentiment has already risen off the summer lows.
The mid-terms are a referendum on Trump/MAGAs and taking rights away from women. A blue wave is coming. Hard to believe with Biden’s approval rating, but true.
“lol…how accurate was the polling during the last election cycles?”
It was extremely accurate in 2020 marco.
“Let me know when the college grads are willing to pay for their mechanics Snap-on tool set for F250”
Auto mechanics took out federal loans. They will get to pay off $10k of it. It’s a BIG deal.
“It does? Is that why the Democrats might take the Ohio and Wisconsin Senate seats?”
No shot in Ohio – DeWine is too popular not enough people will split the ticket i.e. vote for DeWine and vote against Vance/for Ryan.
We shall see about Wisconsin. Ron Johnson was supposedly down double digits a month or two from the election in 2016 and won. Wisconsin will likely be a true toss-up with Dems being helped by Evers being the incumbent up for re-election for Governor. Vote splitting for Evers and Johnson may decide the election as Barnes may be too left for the State.
The Dems talking about 2022 Senate races sounds like how they were talking in 2020 only to get beat pretty bad in states they actually thought they had a chance or would easily win – Maine (Susan Collins), Iowa (Joni Earnst), South Carolina (Lyndsey Graham), etc.
Heck there was some crazy politico story the other day on how Dems think Marco Rubio is on the hot seat. No chance.
I also think Dems are being a little to cavalier in thinking they can expand the map to somehwere like Ohio in a Senate race but not talking about say Nevada and Colorado where the GOP has a shot (Nevada more likely) to flip. The GOP is running terrible candidates for Senate in Georgia and Pennsylvania yet they are likely going to still be very close.
“Gas prices have come way down so the economy is not going to be an issue in the mid-terms either.”
The economy is still a top issue its just not the TOP issue like it was a few months ago.
“A blue wave is coming. Hard to believe with Biden’s approval rating, but true.”
Huh? The Dems losing control of the house and at best adding +1 or +2 in the Senate is a Blue wave…. good lord.
“It was extremely accurate in 2020 marco.”
What does this even mean? The Dems weren’t supposed to lose seats in the house…. They were supposed to win the Senate races in Maine and Iowa by at least 5 points and South Carolina was supposed to be a toss-up.
Winning more presidential votes in California and New York does nothing…
“They were supposed to win the Senate races in Maine and Iowa by at least 5 points”
According to whom? When? Late polls from ‘better’ pollsters had the Rs winning both.
And for whatever reason, you’re forgetting the genuinely bad polling in the North Carolina senate race.
“It was extremely accurate in 2020 Marco.”
huh? just one of countless stories against what you said.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/07/19/2020-election-polls-were-the-least-accurate-in-decades-mostly-for-underestimating-trump-report-finds/?sh=4e7dc92c6318
“And for whatever reason, you’re forgetting the genuinely bad polling in the North Carolina senate race.”
Knew I was forgetting a few. North Carolina was definitely one of them. And for 2022 North Carolina is an open seat in a state with a Dem Governor yet I don’t hear much discussion about this race but some on the left including Sabrina think Ohio could flip….
“The economy is still a top issue its just not the TOP issue like it was a few months ago.”
Nah. Gas is below 2019 prices now. It’s amazing what that does to people’s psyche. Consumer sentiment is all higher. Job market is still rocking and rolling. People still getting raises. Even food prices have started to come down. Economy is NOT the issue this fall.
“Nah. Gas is below 2019 prices now. It’s amazing what that does to people’s psyche. Consumer sentiment is all higher. Job market is still rocking and rolling. People still getting raises. Even food prices have started to come down. Economy is NOT the issue this fall.”
Kind of a side effect of releasing oil from the SPR. Nice that were at the lowest level in 38 years. Totally sustainable
Jobs print keeps missing and previous prints get revised lower
You’re either drunk or delusional
“According to whom? When? Late polls from ‘better’ pollsters had the Rs winning both.”
Nancy Peolsi?
“It does? Is that why the Democrats might take the Ohio and Wisconsin Senate seats?
If anything, the loan forgiveness plays even bigger in the rust belt because there are a lot of people with loans from their trade school, community college etc. that will really see a big benefit. And they feel “seen” that it isn’t just about the 4-year college students alone.
But let’s be honest, abortion is going to be the game changer this fall. Women are pissed again. We will turn out in record numbers again.”
The SCOTUS R Vs W was a nothing burger. The mass protests were a fizzle
Keep telling yourself you have your hand on the pulse of the working class…
“Auto mechanics took out federal loans. They will get to pay off $10k of it. It’s a BIG deal.”
Their Snap-on/MAC loans are a bigger deal than any fed backed loans
Maybe sober up and ask they how much their tools + Chest ran them
Old school Lincoln Park/Lakeview vintage 3/2 with washer/dryer in the unit but no C/A or parking.
Under contract in just 3 days at $450,000.
Some properties still selling quickly.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/823-W-Diversey-Pkwy-60614/unit-2/home/181278789
“Jobs print keeps missing and previous prints get revised lower”
Once again, clueless is as clueless does. Weekly jobless claims have been falling again the last few weeks. Back under 250,000, which is still incredibly low. Job openings back over 11 million. Many industries still facing big shortages and wages still rising to try and fill them (the Fed doesn’t like this though.)
Job market is on fire still. Too hot for the Fed. They will raise 75 basis points this month. Must slow the economy further, and faster.
Job cut announcements remain the lowest since Challenger Gray & Christmas has tracked them since 1993 through August.
“So far this year, employers announced plans to cut 179,506 jobs, down 27% from the 247,326 cuts announced in the first eight months of 2021. It is the lowest recorded January-August total since Challenger began tracking monthly job cut announcements in 1993*.”
https://www.challengergray.com/blog/aug-22-job-cuts-report-labor-market-data-remains-strong-job-cuts-fall-21-in-august-from-july-up-30-from-august-2021/
“If the sympathizers are/were successful in claiming “independence” from Ukraine I think the thought was that area could/would then ally or be part of Russia. Much easier for Russia to control a smaller area of Ukraine especially if the people of that area have closer ties to Russia then Ukraine i.e. language, culture, history, etc.”
But that experience tells us nothing about Russia’s ability to control Ukraine with a) lots of Russian soldiers b) after the Ukrainian military is essentially wiped out.
“They are making more money on gas which is why they are able to shutdown nordstream access to Europe. They are selling that gas to China, India, UAE, etc. at higher prices then what they were selling to Europe.”
I think there are too many moving parts to know what the net outcome is. How much of a discount do these countries get for taking tainted gas? How much more gas can the Chinese pipeline handle? What is the impact on LNG prices if China needs less of that due to getting more gas via Russian pipeline. It looks like their export volume is down but of course their prices are higher maybe. https://www.naturalgasintel.com/gazprom-natural-gas-production-drops-sharply-as-russia-squeezes-european-supplies/
“Once again, clueless is as clueless does. Weekly jobless claims have been falling again the last few weeks. Back under 250,000, which is still incredibly low. Job openings back over 11 million. Many industries still facing big shortages and wages still rising to try and fill them (the Fed doesn’t like this though.)”
Participation rate is still below pre C-19
Continuing jobless claims for the week ended September 3 increased by 36,000 to 1.47 million, the highest level in nearly five months, according to the Labor Department.
Look we all get that you’re a shill and not looking at data that doesnt support the position you’re shilling for doesnt register in your prosecco soaked mind.
You should really give sobriety and open thought a chance. It might make you a lot less bitter
“How much of a discount do these countries get for taking tainted gas?”
The gas isn’t tainted it’s supply/demand. There’s only a few countries that Russia can directly sell to given the sanctions and war. Earlier in the year (spring/early summer) Bloomberg said the discount was ~30%. The BBC reported last week that the discount has narrowed to ~$20 a barrel or ~20% – 25% based on the current Brent price of $89.
Also, the EU and UK are still purchasing Russian Nat Gas. They aren’t stopping until December although they are currently buying less than they did pre-war.
“What is the impact on LNG prices if China needs less of that due to getting more gas via Russian pipeline”
China was already buying from Russia pre-war. S&P Global reported three days ago that China’s LNG imports from Russia hit a 22 month high in August. Why would China need less LNG today then what they were purchasing in 2020 given Covid.
“It looks like their export volume is down but of course their prices are higher maybe.”
Prices are definitely higher which is why total export volume is less important. In Europe Nat Gas prices are up 8x from a year ago apply a 25% discount they are still up 6x.
See NY Times article from this morning below how devastating the sanctions are on Europe. Hopefully its a warm winter.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/08/business/economy/russia-ukraine-global-economy.html
“What is the impact on LNG prices if China needs less of that due to getting more gas via Russian pipeline”
OilPrice.Com citing Bloomberg today states that China is purchasing Russian LNG at a 50% discount from spot prices with the Russian state-owned company still turning a profit given the steep increase in LNG prices since the war broke out.
China is purchasing its highest volumes of Russian LNG since 2019 in the past couple of weeks as US LNG export terminals are selling more to Europe given higher prices.
Further, Europe is still purchasing 1 million barrels of Russian LNG per day and will continue to do so until December.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/China-Is-Aggressively-Buying-Up-Cheap-Russian-LNG.html
Just posted my August update: https://lucidrealty.com/chicago-real-estate-market-update-august-another-10-year-low-for-home-sales/
Yeah, sales are still way down as well as contracts but market times and inventory are pretty low. Still not a bad time to be selling.
I hate the smell of incel on a Friday afternoon.
And again, HH posting on here. Sabrina, you said you took care of this problem.
I delete all of HH’s comments. He posts from multiple IP addresses and the spam filter can’t catch them all.
Sorry.
Ignore his stupid comments.
Thanks for posting your monthly update Gary. Love all the analysis. The housing market is going to be dead until next spring. Not just in Chicago but nationwide. You will be listing to sell only if you HAVE to.
I loved this remark:
“The market still looks pretty healthy despite the fact that sales are falling off a cliff.”
That’s really the power of low inventory, right? It’s such a difference between now and 2009-2012. Even if sales are back to 2012 levels, inventory is nowhere close to it.
Unless we see a significant inventory build over the next 6 months, even with the low sales, Chicago housing prices will likely hold up fairly well.
Of course, there could be a big inventory dump for spring selling season. And it all depends on what is happening in the job market and with mortgage rates.
Rates are back above 6% again. But if they are above 7% by next spring, all bets will be off.
It’s going to be a fascinating time.
This renovated 2/2 is under contract after being on the market for 60 days.
It sold faster than I thought it would with rates at 6%.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1636-N-Wells-St-60614/unit-2401/home/13343559