Market Conditions: March Sales Fall 24.8% YOY as Slowdown Continues
March sales were down again. But last March was the month the Fed first started raising rates in this cycle. Mortgage rates started sharply rising in March 2022. Those rates quickly cooled the housing market.
But is the slowdown playing out as we all thought?
From the Illinois Association of Realtors:
The city of Chicago saw a 24.8 percent year-over-year home sales decrease in March 2023 with 2,168 sales, down from 2,883 in March 2022.
The median price of a home in the city of Chicago in March 2023 was $334,000, down 3.2 percent compared to March 2022 when it was $345,000.
Historic data courtesy of G:
City of Chicago condo/TH/SFH closed totals March
year/closed/median/% REO-Short Sales
Year Closed Median %REO/SS
1997 1,226 $126,875
1998 1,540 $137,003
1999 1,766 $152,125
2000 1,793 $167,500
2001 1,800 $195,000
2002 2,112 $210,000
2003 2,261 $225,000
2004 2,772 $244,950
2005 2,822 $271,125
2006 3,000 $275,862
2007 2,399 $285,000
2008 2,098 $300,000
2009 1,219 $217,000 37%
2010 1,860 $207,750 38%
2011 1,481 $163,763 49%
2012 1,630 $170,500 44%
2013 1,894 $187,500
2014 1,875 $235,000
2015 2,173 $260,000
2016 2,149 $269,000
2017 2,546 $295,000
2018 2,343 $310,500
2019 2,062 $290,700
2020 2,123 $319,950
2021 2,937 $345,000
2022 2,883 $345,000
2023 2,168 $334,000
Just a reminder that March 2022 was the third hottest March since 1997. So even though there’s a big drop year-over-year, 2023’s sales were still higher than recent years, including 2019 and 2020.
“While we continue to see a decline in closed sales that matches the decline in inventory, those who were on the fence during the hectic pandemic market are finding opportunities to enter the market with positive hope,” said Sarah Ware, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and principal and designated managing broker for Ware Realty Group in Chicago.
In Chicago, single family home sales fell 15.3% to 811 while condo sales declined 29.5% to 1,357.
Statewide, inventory continued to decline, falling 16.2% to 17,379 properties from 20,735 last year.
In Chicago, inventory fell 23.3% to 4988 from 6506 last year. Days on the market rose 7.5% to 43 days from 40 days last year.
“This time of year, it is typical to see month-to-month increases in sales, and March 2023 was a great example of that in Illinois,” said Michael Gobber, Illinois REALTORS® 2023 President and designated managing broker-partner, Century 21 Affiliated in Westchester.
“Prices and sales increased last month in both Illinois and the Chicago PMSA,” said Dr. Daniel McMillen, head of the Stuart Handler Department of Real Estate (SHDRE) at the University of Illinois at Chicago College of Business Administration. “Median prices are at approximately the same level as this time last year, although the number of sales is lower. Our forecast is for prices to appreciate through July, but at a lower rate than last year. We expect the number of sales to grow at a faster rate over the next quarter than last year’s rate.”
The 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.54% in March 2023 up from 6.26% in February. It’s also still elevated from March 2022 when it was 4.17%.
But it has now been a year since we’ve seen mortgage rates in the 3s.
While sales are down, they’re not out. What will it take to slow this market further?
Illinois March home sales and median prices fall, while average days on the market rise [Illinois Association of Realtors, Press Release, by Bill Kozar, Apr 20, 2023]
How is Chicago down on median price vs the spring of 2021? All major functioning cities are up 20%+ in that timeframe. Absolutely shameful. Buy anywhere but Chicago.
“How is Chicago down on median price vs the spring of 2021? All major functioning cities are up 20%+ in that timeframe. Absolutely shameful. Buy anywhere but Chicago.”
They are? Many cities seeing falling prices whereas Chicago is not.
Median, as you know Mike HG, is pretty meaningless. Just shows the mix.
But if you actually visited this site on a regular basis, you would know that Chicago never saw the recent bubble. Won’t see a bust either. And it’s neighborhood by neighborhood. Downtown continues to struggle the most although a lot of that inventory is now getting absorbed. Finally. Rest of the city has NO inventory. Tough for buyers.
“Many cities seeing falling prices whereas Chicago is not.”
How on earth is a March 2021 median price of $345k in March 2021 to $334k in 2023 not a price drop?
Chicago has had embarrassingly bad price growth since the financial crisis. Other areas have had a 2X or 3x return compared to Chicago over that time.
I’m not a regular visitor because you allow Helmoter to post here and don’t delete all their comments daily even though they are disgusting.
They are? Many cities seeing falling prices whereas Chicago is not.”
You sound like Trump.
What metric are you using to say Chicago isn’t seeing negative growth? I know you hate CPI, but Chicago RE is a dog when you count inflation.
“Median, as you know Mike HG, is pretty meaningless.”
Except when it’s positive.
Ok, let’s look at some numbers from Case Shiller, which seems to be the gold standard of price appreciation metrics.
First, if you look at figures going back from Jan 2000 to Jan 2023, certainly Chicago is a major “dog.” Of the 20-city index, the only cities worse than us are Cleveland and Detroit, but Chicago isn’t far ahead of those two and the next worst (Minneapolis) is 23% above Chicago. Inflation-adjusted, Chicago is at 107 index when you baselined 2000 to a 100 index, a 7% increase of 23 years (again, inflation adjusted)…..For comparison, Miami is at +135%, LA +129%, San Diego +126%, Tampa +115%, Seattle +109%, San Fran +97%, Portland +85%, Phoenix +81%, Denver +77%, Boston +76%, DC +74%, US AVERAGE +73%, Dallas +66%, Vegas +59%, NYC +59%, Charlotte +48%, Atlanta +33%, Minneapolis +32%…Then, big drop, Chicago +7%, Cleveland +0%, Detroit -2%. So, Chicago trails the average by 66%….
Ok, someone above said let’s look at since ‘spring 2021’ (i.e. about two years). That’s a bit of a different picture actually. Looking Jan 2021 through Jan 2023 (latest figures I have for what I’m looking at), Chicago is +18% (NOT inflation-adjusted). In comparison, US average is +24%. So, Chicago trails the average but not as severely as the 23-year comparison. Still, given Chicago trailed the 21 years prior, you’d think it’d have more room to grow.
By comparison, the five MOST expensive markets at the beginning of 2021 when baselined against a 100 index in the year 2000 (i.e. markets prone to “bubbles” and “busts”) have experienced continued growth of +46% (Miami), +25% (San Diego), +21% (LA), Seattle (+18%), and San Fran (+12%). So, Chicago (18%), has matched Seattle and shown more percentage growth than San Fran in the last two years, but still trails the nationwide average over those two years and high flyers Miami, San Diego, and LA continue to appreciate in price at greater percentages despite already existing extremely high prices. Note that lowly Cleveland and Detroit are +19% and +17%, almost identical to Chicago’s +18%. Warm but historically more affordable places like Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas are +33-34% over this same period.
Seems like the national trend of lower prices as mortgages rise is also taking hold in our area.
Amazing how poor the selection is right now. People with a 3% mortgage aren’t in a hurry to sell and take on one at 6.6%. Tough time for young families outgrowing their starter units, I bet.
Kudos to the jokester inside the IAR who thought it’d be funny to report the exact same median price for both 2021 and 2022.
Dr. Daniel McMillen, head of the Stuart Handler Department of Real Estate at the University of Illinois says
“Median prices are at approximately the same level as this time last year… Our forecast is for prices to appreciate through July…”
He must be referring to nominal prices. Even so, I’ll take unders on his July call, while granting that anything can happen — like median price being exactly the same two years in a row.
“Median prices are at approximately the same level as this time last year…”
Yeah but if one converts prices from nominal into constant 2023 dollar terms (using the BLS’s guesstimate of Chicago’s nonseasonally adjusted CPI), today’s median price is approximately 7% lower than this time last year.
https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=dropmap&series_id=CUURS23ASA0,CUUSS23ASA0
Adjusted for Chicago’s inflation rate, today’s median price is about what it was 20 years ago, which I think shows how insane Housing Bubble #1 was. Real after-inflation % gains in constant dollars averaged 7.6% per year (!) from 1998 to 2005. That’s nuts.
The real (inflation-adjusted) cagr for the period 1997 to 2023 is = 1.6% per annum — which is big, probably due to the fact that March 1997 (my start date) was roughly the start date of HB #1. The cagr in real terms would obviously be negative (-1.16% pa) if we figured it from 2008-2023.
Nominal $ Constant $ % change
1997 $126,875 $220,872
1998 $137,003 $233,998 +6 %
1999 $152,125 $255,314 +9 %
2000 $167,500 $272,629 +7 %
2001 $195,000 $308,608 +13 %
2002 $210,000 $327,356 +6 %
2003 $225,000 $341,249 +4 %
2004 $244,950 $368,515 +8 %
2005 $271,125 $397,233 +8 %
2006 $275,862 $391,287 -1 %
2007 $285,000 $394,500 +1 %
2008 $300,000 $397,480 +1 %
2009 $217,000 $293,165 -26 %
2010 $207,750 $273,432 -7 %
2011 $163,763 $210,663 -23 %
2012 $170,500 $214,920 +2 %
2013 $187,500 $234,156 +9 %
2014 $235,000 $287,894 +23 %
2015 $260,000 $320,453 +11 %
2016 $269,000 $331,002 +3 %
2017 $295,000 $356,044 +8 %
2018 $310,500 $368,152 +3 %
2019 $290,700 $339,461 -8 %
2020 $319,950 $369,559 +9 %
2021 $345,000 $388,363 +5 %
2022 $345,000 $360,246 -7 %
2023 $334,000 $334,000 -7 %
“real (inflation-adjusted) cagr for the period 1997 to 2023 is = 1.6% per annum”
That leaves out the very different mix (size, lux, etc) in ’97 compared to ’23.
And that really is huge–it’s more than 100 bp higher than long term trend. Strip out just the 100 (call that lux+return-to-city premium) and you have $258,262 for 2023 at .6% over CPI pa.
“How is Chicago down on median price vs the spring of 2021? All major functioning cities are up 20%+ in that timeframe. Absolutely shameful. Buy anywhere but Chicago”
The North Shore is still pretty hot with homes going above ask. Prices are certainly up over 20% vs 2 years ago here. I suspect this is a result of the broader problems going on in the city.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1294-Scott-Ave-Winnetka-IL-60093/3360722_zpid/
relatedly, check out the inflation-adjusted C-S here:
https://realestatedecoded.com/case-shiller/
Using a 1995=100 baseline, Chicago is at 119 in real terms–which just happens to be 0.6% pa. Imagine that!
Of the 20 metros, the only one worse is Cleveland, at 111. Then Detroit is at 128, and 4th lowest is ATL at 154. 19-city average (no Dallas) is 195–2.4% pa.
Using 1990 =100, Chicago is still ahead of CLE–120 to 118, and 3d lowest ia actually DC at 144 (no ATL or Detroit), with 17-city average of 173 (’90 was just past 80s peak for a lot of metros, and all of California dropped quite a bit bt 90 and 95).
Thanks anon. I like John Wake but haven’t seen those charts so I’ll check them out when I get a chance.
His choice of deflator is interesting: “I applied the ‘Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Shelter in U.S. City Average’ (CPI-U Less Shelter) to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index.”
I’ll try the Chicago CPI less shelter index. It ain’t’ fair to use the US City Average when Chicago’s inflation has lagged the national average for two decades. Using a Chicago CPI puts the best possible spin on house prices.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=12TaP
Wolf makes me laugh. He’s got a valid point but I don’t care. Full steam ahead:
“I explained a gazillion times that it is conceptual BS to adjust one inflation index (Case-Shiller house price inflation index) by another inflation index (such as CPI or your own silly inflation index)…”
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/04/25/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-april-update-year-over-year-price-drops-worsen-in-san-francisco-seattle-san-diego-portland-las-vegas-phoenix-los-angeles-denver/#comment-514107
“He’s got a valid point but I don’t care.”
But using a norm isn’t bullshit.
We look at real returns in all sorts of other investment contexts–whether anyone “likes” to think of owning a house as an investment isn’t material (ie, fuck their feelings)–for the vast majority of owners, it is, in fact, an investment.
Want to norm based on income, or rent, or equivalent rent, or estimated HMAM, or property tax? Go for it. But a measure of housing price inflation outside of the context of general inflation is … one data point, that can easily lose its contextual value, unless used for comparison of housing price inflation in different locations.
“Tough time for young families outgrowing their starter units, I bet.”
Better times than 2008-2009 when their “starter unit” was plunging.
“What metric are you using to say Chicago isn’t seeing negative growth? I know you hate CPI, but Chicago RE is a dog when you count inflation.”
Chicago prices aren’t on the decline right now. How much clearer can I say it?
“I’m not a regular visitor because you allow Helmoter to post here and don’t delete all their comments daily even though they are disgusting.”
I do NOT allow HH to post here Mike HG. But you already know that.
“Chicago prices aren’t on the decline right now. How much clearer can I say it?”
So you dont have any metric.
https://www.redfin.com/news/redfin-rental-report-april-2023/
The Jim Cramer of Chicago RE like to claim that rents were skyrocketing. Unfortunately that’s not the case
Low inventory is the only thing keeping the market from a major correction
“Low inventory is the only thing keeping the market from a major correction”
This is true in nearly every city. Job market is still holding under 4%. There isn’t going to be a housing crash.
Sorry I was away the last few days. I had a family issue I had to take care of that took me away from the Internet. But summer is fast approaching and the spring buying season remains strong, albeit sales are at 15 year lows because there just isn’t enough inventory.
“This is true in nearly every city. Job market is still holding under 4%. There isn’t going to be a housing crash.”
So Chicago isnt different?
I didnt say crash – I said major correction. Why do you make things up?
“I didnt say crash – I said major correction. Why do you make things up?”
Not going to be a “major correction” a “crash” or anything of the sort. We’ve had mortgage rates above 6% since last September. Buyers have adjusted. Today’s buyers were not looking last fall. They are getting approved for mortgages with today’s reality.
Unemployment rate is still below 4% and inventory remains low. Going to need a flood of listings to pressure those prices but it’s not going to happen.
And yes, every city is like this.
It’s pretty crazy that we are several months into the spring buying season with little change in Chicago prices and yet the bears are still holding out hope. There are just 232 properties on the market in Lakeview. In 2007, when I started this blog, there were 4,000. And Zillow says there are 20,000 daily searches for that neighborhood.
“Not going to be a “major correction” a “crash” or anything of the sort. We’ve had mortgage rates above 6% since last September. Buyers have adjusted. Today’s buyers were not looking last fall. They are getting approved for mortgages with today’s reality.”
Lots of millionaires might be leaving the city –
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chicago-empty-towers-threaten-future-130115508.html
And ooof on the vacancy rate, I guess they can fill that shortfall in a number of ways that wont hurt home owners /sarcasm
“Lots of millionaires might be leaving the city –”
They aren’t leaving the city. Would someone who LIVES in Chicago please inform JohnnyU, who does not, what is really going on in Chicago?
He has NO clue.
Here’s what is happening on the upper, upper end (which is over $4 million in Chicago) according to Crain’s:
“A cool-down at the upper end seemed inevitable, given jitters about both the U.S. economy and the Chicago-area economy. The dearth of extreme upper-end sales is a sign that the cool-down has come.
Another data point that bolsters this observation: At $4 million and up, there have been 24 local home sales so far this year. The comparable figure for 2022 is almost twice that, 46. Last year turned out to be a record year for $4 million-and-up home sales, on top of the record set the previous year.”
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/residential-real-estate/st-regis-condo-sale-shows-upper-end-market-has-cooled
“They aren’t leaving the city. Would someone who LIVES in Chicago please inform JohnnyU, who does not, what is really going on in Chicago?”
If the CBOE leaves, what will the employees do?
Is it fake news that the CBOE is threatening to pull out of Chicago?
And as you are wont to note, the CBOE made a lot of Millionaires.
“Here’s what is happening on the upper, upper end (which is over $4 million in Chicago) according to Crain’s”
UHNW folks arent a proxy for the market
” the CBOE made a lot of Millionaires”
They *monetized* a lot of already millionaires *TWENTY* years ago.
And it ain’t CBOE/CME employees leaving that’s the issue, it’s all the trading shops and the ancillary service providers.
The transactions tax always sounds good to people who “know” how trading works from watching Trading Places 100 times (recommended! but not for how futures trading worked in 1983, and especially not for how it works now. Either way, in Philadelphia, it’s worth fifty bucks).
“Is it fake news that the CBOE is threatening to pull out of Chicago?”
It’s CME not CBOE. And, no, the CME Group isn’t threatening to pull out of Chicago. He gave an interview stating that they have sold all their real estate over the years so they can leave quickly if they need to. But they don’t want to. They’ve been in Chicago and want to stay. So they will work with the mayor on some of the problems in the city. Blah, blah, blah.
CME is a big employer. I’m sure the CEO could get a meeting with the mayor if he wanted. And I’m sure he will get his viewpoint known.
CME made a lot of millionaires when they went IPO. Stock surged the first few years. It’s 20 years later now but shares are up 2055% during that time. Not too shabby. There’s a lot more money floating around in employees accounts than people realize. Just work at McDonald’s for 10 years. You will accumulate a LOT of shares.
We left Chicago several years ago for Florida for the same reasons everyone wants to leave today. Taxes, crime, and weather.
We sold our place for more than $3m and relocated our business. Today our home in Florida has doubled in value and our old Chicago place, according to Zillow, is down 30%.
For people who think that “the rich” people like us don’t care about taxes or assessments, you are totally wrong. We care. I looked at current Illinois tax rates and if you compare the real estate taxes, personal income taxes, and business taxes between Illinois and Florida it is so significant.
If we stayed in IL, we would be paying $100k and now in FL we pay $20k. And that is just for business taxes, RE taxes, and IL income tax. If you add in other expenses that we can now avoid, it is nearly double that.
“It’s CME not CBOE. And, no, the CME Group isn’t threatening to pull out of Chicago. He gave an interview stating that they have sold all their real estate over the years so they can leave quickly if they need to. But they don’t want to. They’ve been in Chicago and want to stay. So they will work with the mayor on some of the problems in the city. Blah, blah, blah.
CME is a big employer. I’m sure the CEO could get a meeting with the mayor if he wanted. And I’m sure he will get his viewpoint known.
”
Yes CME, brain cramp
I think he’s made his views very well known in the interview.
The big question for Johnson/Chicago is where are they going to get the $. Debt is more expensive and CRE is a hot mess.
“I think he’s made his views very well known in the interview.”
As they do every time someone is making shit up about a “LaSalle Street tax”.
It doesn’t have 60 votes in the house.
It doesn’t have 30 votes in the senate.
The guv has made *his* views very well known; it doesn’t get his signature.
AND, even if all that changed, the day before the law became effective, would be the last day that a option/future/derivative trade “took place” in Chicago. It would result in zero dollars of tax revenue.
It’s red meat for voters, but an absolute loser of a policy.
“It’s red meat for voters, but an absolute loser of a policy.”
It will never happen. So tired of the fearmongering.
“I think he’s made his views very well known in the interview.”
I’m sure over the last 5 years he’s had plenty of conversations with Pritzker. If you lived here you would know what is going on. But this is what happens when you live in a state far, far away and know nothing about statewide local politics, or, even worse, are living in the 1990s political world.
“Today our home in Florida has doubled in value and our old Chicago place, according to Zillow, is down 30%.”
Yep. Florida is now a shit show. Too crowded. Traffic all day long in the Miami area, not just during rush hour. Housing out of reach for middle class. Average home price has jumped to $400k from $260k. Can you imagine a suburban Chicago retiree affording that? They are already looking at other options.
Property taxes will triple if you move there and buy now. Insurance has quadrupled. It won’t impact you Stacy because you are rich. But Florida will be a sad place without the middle class to work in the restaurants and tourism industry. As it is, Disney has plans to build apartment buildings so it can provide some affordable housing for its workers in Orlando. That’s so sad. I thought that was only happening in California where they build housing for teachers in the Bay Area. Ugh.
Middle class retirees really can’t afford to have their insurance rates double. One couple was paying $2k and it jumped to $8k. They went to Citizens and got $4k but that’s significant if you are retired on $50k or $60k income.
“We sold our place for more than $3m and relocated our business. Today our home in Florida has doubled in value and our old Chicago place, according to Zillow, is down 30%.”
Also, I call bullshit on this statement. Absolute bullshit. Upper bracket in the city and suburbs has seen record home sales over $4 million last year. It is red hot. You’re not getting a home in a good neighborhood in the city for 30% less. Only downtown has seen falling prices. Did you live in a Gold Coast high rise and never do any updates? Then it’s possible 2 years ago it was down 20% to 30%. But even that inventory has been absorbed and prices have stabilized in the Gold Coast. I’m not saying it’s great, as it’s a neighborhood in transition, but it’s not down 30%.
You are not getting a Lincoln Park or Southport $3 million home for 30% off right now.
Chicagoland was one of 10 metro areas that saw home prices rise from March to April.
I’m not feeling well today. There’s a flu outbreak in the Chicago area. I’m going to bed so there won’t be a new post tomorrow, Wednesday, May 17. I’m hoping I’ll be over the worst of it by then and will resume on Thursday.
“But Florida will be a sad place without the middle class to work in the restaurants and tourism industry.”
This popular narrative never makes sense to me because if it becomes that hard to hire people then you just pay them more. And, yes, then prices go up.
“As it is, Disney has plans to build apartment buildings so it can provide some affordable housing for its workers in Orlando.”
Another thing that makes no sense to me. Why should an employer spend money to be in the real estate business? Use that money to pay people more and make your life simpler.
“I’m sure over the last 5 years he’s had plenty of conversations with Pritzker. If you lived here you would know what is going on. But this is what happens when you live in a state far, far away and know nothing about statewide local politics, or, even worse, are living in the 1990s political world.”
If by conversations you mean Duffy talked and Gov Fatfuck stuffed his maw full of twinkies, you are correct.
Keep on thinking that constantly f’ing with companies isnt going to make them pull up stakes. Its this mindset that led to companies like Boeing, CAT, Citadel, Tyson, etc leaving.
Ft Wayne isnt that far away…
“Yep. Florida is now a shit show. Too crowded. Traffic all day long in the Miami area, not just during rush hour. Housing out of reach for middle class. Average home price has jumped to $400k from $260k. Can you imagine a suburban Chicago retiree affording that? They are already looking at other options.”
I don’t know that affordability for middle class workers and middle class retirees are the most useful metrics to judge whether a place is desirable to live. Or that traffic woes are a metric for undesirability. Important, yes, but not the whole, or even most important parts of, the story. And viewing FL as just a retirement state and a place where people visit or work at Disney is a bit outdated. It’s not for me, but it sure is for a lot of people. In the past year, two in our NY office and one in our Chicago office transferred to FL. I don’t think there’s another U.S. city that matches Miami’s growth of professional services firms over the past several years. And those are professionals leaving major (liberal majority) cities to move to FL’s largest cities (perhaps holding their noses a little bit with respect to the political culture there). Pretty much all Americans who tend to vote Republican and live somewhere that has winters view FL as the promised land – not in spite of but because of its government. To a lot of folks, Scott Baio is living the dream.
“Disney has plans to build apartment buildings so it can provide some affordable housing for its workers in Orlando.”
Disney has done this for *decades*.
“Tyson”
GTFO with that bullshit. Tyson pulled out of *Iowa* at the same time.
Had nothing to do with any government “mindset”.
“GTFO with that bullshit. Tyson pulled out of *Iowa* at the same time.
Had nothing to do with any government “mindset”.”
So a WoRLd cLAsS cItY cant compete with Iowa?
Besides im using the time-honored tradition of a “Sabrina-ing”, nuance is not required as words have no meaning other than what the poster wants them to be
So, you’re stooping on purpose by including an inappropriate example?
If you wanted to be more accurate, you would cite *only* Tyson, knowing that it’s not a good example for the proposition.
Yes
4 major firms >> 3
Yes – Shitpost
4 major firms >> 3
Bed Bath & Beyond leaving Illinois becasue of the failed policies of JB, and the election of Brandon Johnson.
“Bed Bath & Beyond leaving Illinois becasue of the failed policies of JB, and the election of Brandon Johnson.”
The WSB guys really dont like Gov Lardass
“JB’s brother”
Penny? Tony?
“I know a subcontractor”
From the Bahamas. SURE you do.
“4 major firms >> 3”
3 facts >>>>>>>>> 3 facts and one exaggeration presented as 4 facts.
“The WSB guys really dont like Gov Lardass”
Huh? Bed Bath & Beyond went bankrupt and is closing all its stores.
“So a WoRLd cLAsS cItY cant compete with Iowa?”
It wasn’t Iowa. It was South Dakota.
By the way, the vast majority of the employees in both Chicago and Downers Grove, at the two locations here, actually quit instead of moving to Arkansas, which has a relatively small food industry. If you want to be in food, Chicagoland is the place to be.
Here’s more. There was about 500 in South Dakota and 500 in Illinois.
“About 75% of the executives at Tyson’s Dakota Dunes operations — the company’s pork and beef center and former base for IPB which was acquired by Tyson in 2001 — don’t want to move to Springdale, according to Journal’s reporting, citing people familiar with the matter. About 90% of the executives that work in Tyson’s prepared food division in the Chicago area — the headquarters of Hillshire Brands which was acquired by Tyson in 2014 — don’t plan to move to Springdale either.
With an estimated 500 executives working in Dakota Dunes, and an equal amount working in the Chicago area, that means about 200 workers, or about 20% in total, have said they’ll relocate to Springdale.”
https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2022/dec/23/paper-many-tyson-execs-wont-move/
“GTFO with that bullshit. Tyson pulled out of *Iowa* at the same time.”
South Dakota. Where that division had been since 2001. I get it that they want to consolidate everyone at one headquarters but they certainly paid the price in lost experience.
“And viewing FL as just a retirement state and a place where people visit or work at Disney is a bit outdated.”
It’s the vast majority of people still moving there. Without Illinois retirees in Sarasota, what would their housing be like? And Disney is still the largest employer in the state.
Job market has improved but is still not great. The 300 management jobs Citadel is moving to Miami area is a drop in the bucket compared to the 1000 jobs that are remaining in Chicago.
There have already been articles about people who moved down during the pandemic, leaving.
“Keep on thinking that constantly f’ing with companies isnt going to make them pull up stakes. Its this mindset that led to companies like Boeing, CAT, Citadel, Tyson, etc leaving.”
Our governor was founder and head of 1871. He knows everyone in the business community. He has done absolutely nothing to drive companies away. I don’t know why you keep blaming him.
“This popular narrative never makes sense to me because if it becomes that hard to hire people then you just pay them more. And, yes, then prices go up.”
Restaurants won’t make it. They have said as much in every state that has raised to $15 an hour. Only so much you can raise restaurant prices because consumers will push back. Of course, we have yet to see mass closure of any restaurants.
Florida’s minimum wage is one of the lowest in the nation, by the way. But yes, some employers will pay more to get workers. They can pay more than minimum. But home prices have spiked so quickly and are so unaffordable, that the middle class can’t afford to live there at all Gary. You’re not making it on $20 an hour if your apartment rent is $1800 a month.
This from last year. Has it gotten better this year? I should hope so. Maybe the increases have stopped.
Otherwise, this sounds like hell, not paradise.
https://www.wptv.com/money/real-estate-news/priced-out-of-paradise-housing-crisis-spares-no-one-renters-buyers-owners
There is a growing concern that there will not be housing for essential workers, police officers, teachers or people who cook your food at restaurants and fast-food joints.
“I thought I was settled for the rest of my life,” said Palomba, who is 79-years-old and now forced to start all over.
“This unit, this size unit right here in this complex, they’re going from $1,200 to $1,300 now for these little units.”
Palomba doesn’t know what the next few months will look like. He survives off a small disability check, and he’s been living month-to-month in a studio apartment in Port Saint Lucie for the past three years.
“Everything that’s a three-bedroom apartment that was $2,000 last year is $4,000 or $5,000 now, so there’s just nowhere to go,” said Jamie Wolf, a single mom who is raising her three kids in a three-bedroom apartment in west Boca Raton.
Wolf’s lease is coming up for renewal, and she says her rent is about to be increased by about 50 percent.
The price of living in paradise is potentially pushing out middle-class workforce. The average waiter or waitress living and working in the city is spending 75 percent of their salary on rent.
Registered nurses are spending 27 percent of their annual salary on renting a one-bedroom in West Palm Beach while elementary school teachers are spending 36 percent of their salary on a rent.
“Even though we give them a higher salary, it’s eaten alive with all the increases,” said John Ries, owner of the Hot Pie Pizza in West Palm Beach.
“Another thing that makes no sense to me. Why should an employer spend money to be in the real estate business? Use that money to pay people more and make your life simpler.”
Because paying them more still won’t cut it. It’s probably cheaper for them to build the housing and control housing costs that way for their employees.
Cisco built housing for teachers in Silicon Valley during the dot com boom and they weren’t even their own employees. But without teachers, you don’t have schools. Without schools, you don’t have talented employees coming to work there.
This is their first affordable development, apparently. And not limited to Disney employees. They also won’t own it.
https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/disney-affordable-housing-new-details-released-for-80-acre-real-estate-project-in-central-florida
“I don’t think there’s another U.S. city that matches Miami’s growth of professional services firms over the past several years.”
Have you been to Austin lately? (rolls eyes)
Heck Dallas also probably crushes it. Miami is really small potatoes still.
“Because paying them more still won’t cut it. It’s probably cheaper for them to build the housing and control housing costs that way for their employees.”
So you’re assuming that employers have better economics for developing housing than real estate developers? That makes no sense.
“There is a growing concern that there will not be housing for essential workers, police officers, teachers or people who cook your food at restaurants and fast-food joints.”
If people are not willing to pay these workers more then these workers are apparently not needed as much as everyone thinks. If I’m not willing to pay (make up a number) 20% more for a meal then I shouldn’t complain that one of my favorite restaurants is closing.
The problem with public servants is that the politicians solve their wage problem by lowering their hiring standards and the voters let them get away with it.
The bottom line is that if higher income people had to pay higher property taxes and higher prices at restaurants then either they can afford it or, if they can’t, they won’t be able to bid up property values as much.
Obviously there is a housing shortage in these areas so people are going to have to reallocate their budgets or move. Maybe instead of spending 30% of your salary on rent you spend 36%. Why on earth would a waiter spend 75% of their income on rent when they could move to a lower cost area? It makes no sense. My kids live in high cost of living areas. They understand that the day may come when they have to move simply because it’s too expensive. Housing costs go up because people refuse to leave.
And the 75% number for waiters is a nonsense number. Somebody averaged apples and oranges and put them in the same basket. They are looking at average waiter incomes and average 1 bedroom apartment rents from Zumper and assuming no roommates. I challenge anyone to find a waiter spending 75% of their income on rent. It doesn’t happen because waiters, making less than registered nurses, don’t live in the same housing. https://www.wptv.com/money/real-estate-news/higher-rent-costs-threaten-palm-beach-county-workforce
“Our governor was founder and head of 1871. He knows everyone in the business community. He has done absolutely nothing to drive companies away. I don’t know why you keep blaming him”
LOL 1871
Being a billionaire is going to open doors. Without Daddy’s money, Fatty would be a mid level manager at best
Except he has created a climate where business are moving out.
Who is responsible for these companies leaving a wOrLD ClaSS cITy?
“By the way, the vast majority of the employees in both Chicago and Downers Grove, at the two locations here, actually quit instead of moving to Arkansas, which has a relatively small food industry. If you want to be in food, Chicagoland is the place to be.”
How many were critical to the “Food Industry” Vs office drones?
“South Dakota. Where that division had been since 2001. I get it that they want to consolidate everyone at one headquarters but they certainly paid the price in lost experience.”
Are you stating that the share price slide is due to “lost experience”?
Its amazing that their doors are still open after leaving a wOrLd ClaSS cITy
“It’s the vast majority of people still moving there. Without Illinois retirees in Sarasota, what would their housing be like?”
Still expensive in Longboat, St Armands, Siesta. Mixed pricing elsewhere. Worst case you look a little to the south at Venice
During my time in FL, I have met a lot of former IL residents. Some are retired and many out of that group are getting hefty pensions funded by IL taxpayers. Thank you for your contributions to the FL economy, IL.
I see Chicago is proposing new city income taxes, wealth taxes, and business taxes. I’m sure none of those new taxes will be used to prevent crime so get used to paying more for nothing in return.
IL cheerleaders like to say that taxes are the price for living in civilized society but your city and state are in decay and worse than FL in every conceivable way and yet we pay a fraction of what you pay.
“I see Chicago is proposing new city income taxes, wealth taxes, and business taxes.”
That’s like saying “we see Florida is proposing [crazy thing X]” becasue of the Moms of Ignorance or whatever teh fuck they call themselves.
The Mayor has said he doesn’t support it.
DSA Alderman Ramirez-Rosa said he hadn’t heard about it before the press release.
It’s not “Chicago” proposing that.
“The Mayor has said he doesn’t support it.” just means that they are floating this as an idea to gauge public response and then push a slightly different tax increase but, rest assured, they only know how to charge you guys more and convince you to accept less. Most IL people will eat it up because they’ll be told the funding will go to fight global warming or support homelessness or fund equity or empower women.
“just means that they are floating this as an idea to gauge public response and then push a slightly different tax increase but, rest assured, they only know how to charge you guys more and convince you to accept less.”
Again, someone who doesn’t live in Chicago (did you ever? I’m betting that by “Chicago” you really mean the suburbs.) Because you never make city specific comments Stacy. Only complain about the STATE.
JB has already told Brandon in their meetings weeks ago, that most of the taxes on his list are a no go at the state level. For a few others, he has to get it through City Council and they all don’t agree with Brandon’s vision.
The Mayor isn’t a King. He can’t just do whatever he wants. This was part of Lightfoot’s problem, right? She could not get along with the alderman and they resented her.
“I see Chicago is proposing new city income taxes, wealth taxes, and business taxes. I’m sure none of those new taxes will be used to prevent crime so get used to paying more for nothing in return.”
Johnson isn’t proposing anything of the sort. He’s busy trying to find housing for the migrants. He’s been thrown into the job. It’s going to be tough. There’s a lot going on. Let’s all hope he can successfully guide the city through all the challenges.
“Worst case you look a little to the south at Venice”
Venice home prices have doubled. In YouTube videos, prices went from $260k to $450k to $550k. Sales have slowed now at those prices.
Property taxes will be about $6,000 and it will cost you $4000 to $8000 for insurance.
Illinois retirees will start looking elsewhere if prices remain high. Priced out! A $500k house in retirement? On what planet???
“How many were critical to the “Food Industry” Vs office drones?”
According to Tyson’s original press release, pretty critical. They knew they would lose some. That always happens. But I don’t think they anticipated losing 80% of their long-term employees at these critical offices. DG was the Hillshire Farms HQ, wasn’t it? Or was it Chicago?
Either way, tons of experience and cultural knowledge lost. The company just reported a terrible quarter. Wonder if it was impacted by this loss of talent?
“LOL 1871
Being a billionaire is going to open doors. Without Daddy’s money, Fatty would be a mid level manager at best”
Why are you laughing about 1871 JohnnyU? Just another indication you haven’t lived in Chicago in a long, long time and really know nothing about anything. I don’t know why I bother even correcting you with your 1990s perceptions and ideas of the city.
1871 was a big driver of the tech industry in Chicago. It’s a real incumbator. It brought VC money, start-ups and the tech infrastructure to the city. Many thought Pritzker would fail. He didn’t. Good for him.
When has it mattered if your family money has opened the door to opportunities? Did it matter for GW Bush? Trump? Kennedy?
It doesn’t mean you didn’t do the job. Chicago was high on the list of VC money last year because of the seeds Pritzker and others in the old tech community planted over a decade ago. It helped that Rahm was a big supporter of the effort too.
There was an article in Wall Street Journal a few weeks ago about people moving to coasts of Alabama over Florida to save money.
“Why on earth would a waiter spend 75% of their income on rent when they could move to a lower cost area? It makes no sense.”
So, during COVID, the waiters, who maybe were born and raised in Florida and their family and friends all live nearby, are supposed to decide to move to…where? Rents have shot up in just about every metro area.
Only someone who is extremely privileged would say “just move.”
Wow.
“Nearly six in 10 young adults live within 10 miles of where they grew up, and eight in 10 live within 100 miles, according to a new study by researchers at the U.S. Census Bureau and Harvard University.”
https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/07/theres-no-place-like-home.html
“Either way, tons of experience and cultural knowledge lost. The company just reported a terrible quarter. Wonder if it was impacted by this loss of talent?”
Pro tip – it wasnt
“Venice home prices have doubled. In YouTube videos, prices went from $260k to $450k to $550k. Sales have slowed now at those prices.
Property taxes will be about $6,000 and it will cost you $4000 to $8000 for insurance.
Illinois retirees will start looking elsewhere if prices remain high. Priced out! A $500k house in retirement? On what planet???”
Do you ever get tired of lying?
$300k & updated. Property taxes wont be anywhere $6k
The Bridgeport, Mt Greenwood, Beverly folks can easily swing this by selling their Chicago pad
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/82-Circlewood-Dr-A3-4-Venice-FL-34293/47577928_zpid/
“1871 was a big driver of the tech industry in Chicago. It’s a real incumbator. It brought VC money, start-ups and the tech infrastructure to the city. Many thought Pritzker would fail. He didn’t. Good for him.
When has it mattered if your family money has opened the door to opportunities? Did it matter for GW Bush? Trump? Kennedy?
It doesn’t mean you didn’t do the job. Chicago was high on the list of VC money last year because of the seeds Pritzker and others in the old tech community planted over a decade ago. It helped that Rahm was a big supporter of the effort too.”
Chicago is 9th in the US for VC investment – Nice but not what one would expect from a wORlD cLAsS CitY and a mAJoR TecH hUB
I’d like to see a rate of VC investment for Chicago Vs Austin, Miami, R-D and SLC
As for fatty, yeah you can throw around a $B and hit on something. Better that buying twinkies and stuffing them in your cakehole by avoiding paying property taxes
“He’s been thrown into the job. It’s going to be tough.”
Was he the lieutenant, and the governor died or resigned or was imprisoned? I thought millions of dollars were spent and fierce campaigns waged, debates, the whole nine yards, but I may be confusing Chicago with some other city.
“So, during COVID, the waiters, who maybe were born and raised in Florida and their family and friends all live nearby, are supposed to decide to move to…where? Rents have shot up in just about every metro area.
Only someone who is extremely privileged would say “just move.””
Since when is a willingness to leave family and friends a privilege?
The world changes in dramatic ways and the pace of change keeps accelerating. Only someone with a profound sense of entitlement would think that they would not have to adapt their life to that change. And that’s the problem.
“I’d like to see a rate of VC investment for Chicago Vs Austin, Miami, R-D and SLC”
Well, you apparently have a source for “Chicago is 9th in the US for VC investment”…
Looking at the NVCA data:
RDU and SLC don’t even register.
Illinois and Florida are basically the same year in, year out. Colorado in the same ballpark. Washington ~15% higher, Texas about 15% ahead of that, and then the big three Mass (~4x IL), NY (~6x IL) and CA (20x+ IL).
“The average waiter or waitress living and working in the city [of West Palm Beach] is spending 75 percent of their salary on rent.”
So, having to move from the city of West Palm to Riveria Beach or Westgate is something only privileged people do?
Is it also a privilege to move from Oak Park to Maywood to find cheaper housing?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-09/where-venture-capital-and-tech-jobs-are-growing
“RDU and SLC don’t even register”
Re SLC & R-D: Not that the pool of VC is fixed, but if VC investment isnt growing and others are increasing their capture thats not a positive
Hence why I’d like to see the rate of change in the top cities
Article is more about jobs at VCs, rather than where the investements are going. There’s obviously some correlation–proximity breeds familiarity–but it’s not one-to-one.
“Article is more about jobs at VCs, rather than where the investements are going. There’s obviously some correlation–proximity breeds familiarity–but it’s not one-to-one.”
Huh? – The table is right there with investment by city???
Metropolitan area Venture capital investment (in billions) Share of venture capital investment Venture capital investment per person
San Francisco $93.80 28.20% $19,817
New York $53.10 15.90% $2,764
Boston $35.20 10.60% $7,229
San Jose $26.70 8.00% $13,430
Los Angeles $23.90 7.20% $1,810
San Diego $9.70 2.90% $2,889
Seattle $8.10 2.40% $2,025
Philadelphia $7.70 2.30% 1,265
Chicago $7.20 2.20% $761
Washington DC $5.10 1.50% $818
Austin $5.00 1.50% $2,242
Miami $4.60 1.40% $746
Denver $4.50 1.30% $1,505
Atlanta $4.20 1.30% $695
Salt Lake City $2.50 0.80% $2,038
Houston $2.00 0.60% $284
Boulder $1.90 0.60% $5,817
Phoenix $1.90 0.60% $377
Dallas $1.80 0.50% $240
Raleigh-Cary $1.60 0.50% $1,163
“The table is right there”
Yeah, I get that, but that’s not Richard Florida’s gig–he’s writing mainly about the fund staff, and potential future founders being not in Cali/NY/MA.
I wasnt referencing if for labor – only the VC investment data
If you have other VS spend data by city – would like to see it
“So, having to move from the city of West Palm to Riveria Beach or Westgate is something only privileged people do?”
What a stupid thing to say. I know you’re too smart, anon(tfo) to honestly think if you move a city away that suddenly your rent is going to plunge. Gee, I think they would have thought of that. If you actually read any of the articles about rents in Florida, you will quickly learn that they have soared statewide. It’s NOT like moving to Maywood from Oak Park. Go figure.
But you knew that. And if you didn’t, that shows your privilege, along with Gary’s, that you both believe that “well, can’t afford this state, or city, I’ll up and move 300 miles away to somewhere else or a 1,000 miles away with the tons of cash sitting in my checking account.”
Just so stupid we shouldn’t even continue this conversation.
“Since when is a willingness to leave family and friends a privilege?”
OMG.
1. MONEY
2. MONEY
3. MONEY
Have you ever rented a moving van for a long distance move? Do you know how much it costs? How do you get a job in another state if you’re not living there yet? Do you have thousands of dollars saved up for the rental apartment down payment, and money for if it takes you some time to find a job?
Do you have friends, relatives nearby to babysit your children? Are you willing to move somewhere, if you don’t make much money, where there is NO help whatsoever?
You are privileged beyond belief, Gary. You have no idea how most people keep the balls in the air, have kids, manage to pay the rent, take care of elderly parents, all on middle class or working class income. You need SUPPORT which is why most people don’t leave where their family and friends are.
Only the privileged think it’s no big deal to pack up and move a household.
“Was he the lieutenant, and the governor died or resigned or was imprisoned?”
Mayor Johnson? No. He was a school teacher.
“Chicago is 9th in the US for VC investment – Nice but not what one would expect from a wORlD cLAsS CitY and a mAJoR TecH hUB”
Chicago ranks sixth on this list:
https://dealroom.co/guides/usa
1. Bay Area
2. NYC
3. Boston
4. LA
5. Seattle
6. Chicago
7. Austin
8. Washington DC
9. Research Triangle
10. San Diego
But, yes, Chicago might rank as low as 9th if you break out the “Bay Area” into San Francisco, Oakland, San Jose so there would be 3 cities there.
We had a record year last year with most sources saying we had $10 billion. It’s still trump change compared to Boston, LA, NY and the Bay Area but it is going in the right direction thanks to investments made over 10 years ago with the 1871 incubator and Rahm’s push to bring VC firms to the city as well.
Chicago just got a $250 million grant for a biohub from the Zuckerberg Chan Initiative. We beat out 58 others cities for the money. For several years, the city has been making a bigger push into biotech. We have the major research universities. We should have more biotech, like Boston does.
https://blockclubchicago.org/2023/03/06/chan-zuckerberg-biohub-chicago-to-host-disease-research-lab-with-250-million-from-facebook-founders-family-project-25-million-from-state/
“As for fatty, yeah you can throw around a $B and hit on something. Better that buying twinkies and stuffing them in your cakehole by avoiding paying property taxes”
He didn’t “throw around a B.” He literally worked on the incubator, convinced companies to use it, convinced Rahm it could work.
“Do you ever get tired of lying?
$300k & updated. Property taxes wont be anywhere $6k”
Thanks for proving my point JohnnyU. The Illinois retirees will take one look at this palatial palace you’ve linked to, the only home priced under $300k in Venice, mind you, as the other properties are all mobile homes under $300k. No, the property taxes will be around $4k which is still pretty steep for a property that sold for $187,000 in 2021.
This is why they aren’t going to move down there. Illinoisans are nothing if not practical. We’ll move to Alabama or Mississippi to get our nicer home instead.
It’s been on the market for 11 days so far with no takers.
Here’s a good example of what faces retirees who haven’t yet sold in the Chicagoland area and moved to Florida.
This 2/2 1500 square foot “villa” in Venice was new construction in 2020. It closed for $250,000 in Apr 2020. That’s affordable for the middle class Chicagoland homeowner. Even if they sell here for $250k or $300k, they mostly have the cash to pay cash, or have a small mortgage. Do-able.
But it’s now listed 3 years later for $429,900. That’s an entirely new bracket. Yeah, their Chicagoland home has gone up in price too. But let’s say they can sell that for $300k now. Prior to the housing boom, they could sell out and buy pretty easily with little debt. They could buy brand new!
But now, not really. Harder on the budget, even if they are going to put down cash. Need a LOT more cash.
Suddenly “affordable” Florida isn’t anymore.
https://www.redfin.com/FL/Venice/20966-Fetterbush-Pl-34293/home/170104447
And these are for those lucky ones who are paying cash. What if you’re not? Gulp.
Here’s what is going on in Chicago. If the property is updated, it will sell almost immediately.
Just 2 days on the market for this historic row home in Old Town. We have chattered about these in the past. There is no parking.
Listed at $999,000
Last sold in August 2017 for $759,000
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1822-N-Lincoln-Ave-60614/home/13345028
5 Days on the market for this West Lincoln Park townhouse.
Listed at $780,000
Last sold in May 2018 for $634,000 with original finishes
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/2666-N-Southport-Ave-60614/home/13362842
“Just 2 days on the market for this historic row home in Old Town. We have chattered about these in the past. There is no parking.
Listed at $999,000
Last sold in August 2017 for $759,000
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1822-N-Lincoln-Ave-60614/home/13345028”
$759k + $100k Reno = $1.06MM with CPI – Oooof
“Thanks for proving my point JohnnyU. The Illinois retirees will take one look at this palatial palace you’ve linked to, the only home priced under $300k in Venice, mind you, as the other properties are all mobile homes under $300k. No, the property taxes will be around $4k which is still pretty steep for a property that sold for $187,000 in 2021.”
Yeah because anyone looking to retire in a sub $300k home was living high on the hog in $2MM home in Mt Greenwood. Your comments keep getting dumber and dumber as you keep doubling down
And remember your statement – “Venice home prices have doubled. In YouTube videos, prices went from $260k to $450k to $550k. Sales have slowed now at those prices.”
Which is completely false
As for the price increase – Thats HAWT ™
“This is why they aren’t going to move down there. Illinoisans are nothing if not practical. We’ll move to Alabama or Mississippi to get our nicer home instead.”
Since you’re such an expert on everything LOL
It’s been on the market for 11 days so far with no takers.”
You would think that an expert on Venice real estate like yourself would have known that the average time on market is 35 days
“Here’s a good example of what faces retirees who haven’t yet sold in the Chicagoland area and moved to Florida.
This 2/2 1500 square foot “villa” in Venice was new construction in 2020. It closed for $250,000 in Apr 2020. That’s affordable for the middle class Chicagoland homeowner. Even if they sell here for $250k or $300k, they mostly have the cash to pay cash, or have a small mortgage. Do-able.
But it’s now listed 3 years later for $429,900. That’s an entirely new bracket. Yeah, their Chicagoland home has gone up in price too. But let’s say they can sell that for $300k now. Prior to the housing boom, they could sell out and buy pretty easily with little debt. They could buy brand new!
But now, not really. Harder on the budget, even if they are going to put down cash. Need a LOT more cash.
Suddenly “affordable” Florida isn’t anymore.
https://www.redfin.com/FL/Venice/20966-Fetterbush-Pl-34293/home/170104447
And these are for those lucky ones who are paying cash. What if you’re not? Gulp”
Welcome to a HAWT ™ Real Estate market!!!
“1. MONEY
2. MONEY
3. MONEY”
That’s a very popular narrative but the actual data suggests that a huge percentage of the population is just too attached to where they live. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-30/people-in-the-u-s-are-moving-homes-less-than-ever
A population that won’t move is bad for the economy. That’s why I think government policies that encourage people to stay put are a bad idea.
“I know you’re too smart, anon(tfo) to honestly think if you move a city away that suddenly your rent is going to plunge.”
Depends on the relative housing stock, and the particular city pair, no?
Anyway, it was a ridiculous thing–restaurant servers who *both* work and rent in WPB–what’s that cohort size? 100? 400?
“Mayor Johnson? No. He was a school teacher.”
No, he was a member of the Cook County Board.
He hasn’t been a teacher in over a decade.
“That’s a very popular narrative but the actual data suggests that a huge percentage of the population is just too attached to where they live.”
That also comes, in part, out of cost, or perceived cost–both actual outlay and “who will watch my dog/kid/lizard”, etc.
““Mayor Johnson? No. He was a school teacher.”
No, he was a member of the Cook County Board.
He hasn’t been a teacher in over a decade.”
If one was snarky, one might question if she even lives in Chicago
It’s sometimes easy to forget the Cook County board has anyone beyond the President. Had to focus to remember who ‘my’ rep on the board is.
“If one was snarky, one might question if she even lives in Chicago”
Yes, I said he was a school teacher. And I was 100% correct.
This comment is ironic coming from someone who hasn’t lived in Chicago in 30 years. You’d get further on this site JohnnyU if you just admitted what we all know: you don’t live here and you haven’t for 30 years. That’s okay. There are plenty of other posters on this blog who don’t live in Chicago either. No one cares because they are being authentic. You respect them more for it.
“Anyway, it was a ridiculous thing–restaurant servers who *both* work and rent in WPB–what’s that cohort size? 100? 400?”
Your comment says it all, right? That was the point of the piece. West Palm Beach used to be affordable. Just a few years ago. It was the crappy city where all the middle and working class people lived. A couple of years ago you could get a cute historic bungalow for about $250,000.
Like this one in Flamingo Park. Lots of little bungalows there. This one is now $895,000 (outrageous) but sold for $130,000 in 2010.
https://www.redfin.com/FL/West-Palm-Beach/745-Flamingo-Dr-33401/home/42531897
Here’s another one in Flamingo Park. Just another run of the mill bungalow that dominates a lot of these neighborhoods. They weren’t building fancy mansions in West Palm Beach.
Sold in 2016 for $242,000
Listed in May 2023 for $675,000 (even more absurd- they tried to get $750,000 for it in March)
https://www.redfin.com/FL/West-Palm-Beach/1911-Parker-Ave-33401/home/42653479
Old Northwood was the first historic district to be gentrified. There are some bigger spanish homes mixed in with the bungalows.
But here’s another absurd bungalow.
Sold in 2018 for $360,000
Sold in May 2022 in what looks like a bidding war for $815,000
Re-listed in April 2023 for $925,000
Now reduced to $910,000
Just 1500 square feet.
I thought California home prices were crazy but this seems worse to me. West Palm Beach IS middle class, for the most part. And even working class. That’s why so many waiters/waitresses are living there anon(tfo). But not anymore. Completely priced out of buying or of renting, apparently. But heck, lawyers are priced out too.
I don’t know how Florida continues at these prices with 7% mortgage rates. Who’d even pay $400k for this house?
https://www.redfin.com/FL/West-Palm-Beach/411-31st-St-33407/home/42510563
Also, I’m assuming they are working in Palm Beach where there are more hotels, restaurants and retail stores and living in West Palm Beach. That’s pretty much how it has always worked there.
“A population that won’t move is bad for the economy.”
Pre-pandemic, the population has NEVER moved Gary. Only the privileged. No one else can afford it and doesn’t even consider it.
Also, we just finished the greatest migration in the United States since WWII. If people are done moving now, then we shouldn’t be surprised.
All the talent is in the big cities. No need to have the population move when you can have Meta Platforms open an office in downtown Chicago.
“Yeah because anyone looking to retire in a sub $300k home was living high on the hog in $2MM home in Mt Greenwood.”
That’s my point. They were not. My aunt retired to Arizona with a housing budget of $250k before the pandemic. It was difficult even then. If she were going to move today, she would not be able to. Her house that she bought for $235k is now $350k.
“$759k + $100k Reno = $1.06MM with CPI – Oooof”
2 days. With NO parking. These have always been historically difficult to sell. But not now in 2023 when there is NOTHING on the market.
All renovations have been done so that helps as well.
Sizzle.
“Pre-pandemic, the population has NEVER moved Gary. Only the privileged. No one else can afford it and doesn’t even consider it.”
Not true and here is the data: https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/demo/tables/geographic-mobility/time-series/historic/hst_mig_a_1.xlsx
As recently as 2005 people were much more mobile and going back further they were even more mobile.
And I flatly reject the use of the word privilege with regard to the financial ability to move. It makes it sound like it’s some kind of unearned advantage and it’s not.
“And I flatly reject the use of the word privilege with regard to the financial ability to move. It makes it sound like it’s some kind of unearned advantage and it’s not.”
The vast majority of the country isn’t wealthy Gary. Your view has been skewed by selling real estate in one of America’s richest cities. And now moving to yet another one. Most aren’t buying and selling million dollar houses. They can’t afford the moving van to go cross country.
So, yeah, it’s a privilege to be able to move cross country. It means Google is hiring you and paying for the moving van. Working class don’t get it paid for.
If more people were moving back 40 years ago that’s the Baby Boomers. They’re moving now too but a lot of them are now dead. Millennials aren’t moving because it’s too darn expensive to move to the coasts. And if they grew up there, they’ll live at home with the parents and then stick around after marriage.
It’s kind of ironic in the era with such tremendous communication devices like smartphones, social media and the ability to do video calls from our cars, that we DON’T want to move away from our friends and family. Back in the day, you would go a week without talking to anyone back home if you lived elsewhere. Telephone calls too expensive. You sent letters. Lol.
“That’s my point. They were not. My aunt retired to Arizona with a housing budget of $250k before the pandemic. It was difficult even then. If she were going to move today, she would not be able to. Her house that she bought for $235k is now $350k.”
You dont have a point, which makes this (like most conversations you’re involved in) useless.
Does your “aunt” have a divine right to live exactly where she wants? Arizona’s a big state, maybe she needs to look around a bit. I mean I deserve to retire to a Ranch in J-Hole, why isnt this happening?!?
BTW – The examples you list are the effects of a HAWT ™ markets.
“Millennials aren’t moving because it’s too darn expensive to move to the coasts. And if they grew up there, they’ll live at home with the parents and then stick around after marriage.”
Jeez – they youngest Millennial is 27, shit thats sad.
Many Millennials/z’s arent moving because they’re incapable of operating without out their parental safety net. These cohorts are completely bifurcated in this regard
“Yes, I said he was a school teacher. And I was 100% correct.”
WTAF? You even quoted the (facetious) question:
“Was he the lieutenant, and the governor died or resigned or was imprisoned?”
IMMEDIATELY BEFORE becoming mayor, he was not in any way shape or form a “school teacher”. He was an elected representative at the county level.
It’s so blatent, I have to assume you are trying to diminish him.
“Also, I’m assuming they are working in Palm Beach”
So, those people don’t count in that stat–it was for people living AND working in WPB.
“$759k + $100k Reno = $1.06MM with CPI – Oooof”
It’s nice, but it’s basically tiny and landlocked.
Seemingly paid cash, so…
“Does your “aunt” have a divine right to live exactly where she wants?”
Nope. No one does. That’s why they won’t move to Florida because they can no longer afford it. But they still want the ocean and the beach. So they’ll move to Alabama or Mississippi.
My aunt would have stayed in the Chicago suburbs as she wouldn’t have been able to afford Arizona. Both states used to be affordable for the middle class but they aren’t anymore and it’s going to have big ramifications moving forward unless prices drop dramatically, which is possible.
The CBD’s CRE implosion implies higher resi prop taxes:
https://wirepoints.org/chicagos-commercial-doom-loop-could-result-in-a-property-tax-hike-on-homeowners-as-large-as-22-wirepoints/
Other doom loop data:
Treasury sold 21-day T-bills this morning at 6.326% ytm, a rate only 2 bps lower than the average cap rate Fritz applied to North Chicago township industrial pins for TY 2021. Higher cap rates, lower AVs.
The NYT claims (“Coastal Cities Priced Out Low-Wage Workers. Now College Graduates Are Leaving, Too”) Chicago is undergoing a net outflow (arrivees less departees) of both degree and non-degree holders, belied by a sharp increase of departing college-degree holders.
Ryan Ori wrote recently “Meta is looking to shed about 115,000 square feet in its Chicago office”, almost half its original lease. He says Salesforce wants to sublet one-forth of its lease and Uber wants to sublet 14% of its current lease, having previously shed 21% of its original lease.
The Census bureau says Chicago’s July 1, 2022 population = 2.665m. Since 2000 (2.896m) the city’s population has declined 0.37% per annum.
Just because a company is getting rid of office space doesn’t mean it’s getting rid of employees. Meta and Salesforce are both allowing permanent work-from-home.
Thank goodness Chicago’s tech jobs are actually a low level of total jobs. It’s San Francisco, DC, Seattle and Austin which are getting hammered by the tech layoffs. Much larger percentage of jobs. Chicago is actually very diverse.
Chicago should have had a tech job boom. They would have added tons of additional jobs over the past 10 years. They would have lost maybe 5% of those during these layoffs. So instead we are missing the other 95% of the high paying jobs that drive area wide economic growth because tech companies won’t make large offices here. Also, all tech companies are returning to office including Apple Google Microsoft Amazon and Meta. So that permanent work from home statement is again, like always, false.
“Nope. No one does. That’s why they won’t move to Florida because they can no longer afford it. But they still want the ocean and the beach. So they’ll move to Alabama or Mississippi.
My aunt would have stayed in the Chicago suburbs as she wouldn’t have been able to afford Arizona. Both states used to be affordable for the middle class but they aren’t anymore and it’s going to have big ramifications moving forward unless prices drop dramatically, which is possible.”
They are affordable, just not close to the beach – shocking
Side effect of a HAWT Market(tm)
“Just because a company is getting rid of office space doesn’t mean it’s getting rid of employees. Meta and Salesforce are both allowing permanent work-from-home.”
You really are Jim Cramer
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/24/meta-layoffs-latest-round-of-cuts-focuses-on-business-groups.html
“Chicago should have had a tech job boom. They would have added tons of additional jobs over the past 10 years.”
We did Mike HG. I think you’ve been gone a little too long now. Lol.
In fact, Google just bought the Thompson Center because they have outgrown two buildings in the West Loop.
And “tech companies won’t make large offices here.” Are you referring to Florida, where you now live? If so, then I agree. But in Chicago, there is a massive newly built office building which was leased by this company called Salesforce. They are not going to take all the space now. But someone else will. It’s a gorgeous building with views.
Chicago is not heavily concentrated in tech jobs, however. One of the newspapers just published the percentage of jobs in certain cities that were tech. San Francisco was like 14%. It was the highest. Chicago didn’t make the list because our economy is more diverse.
More likely you’ll work in “tech” in food, transportation or manufacturing in Chicago.
So there was a tech job boom, but not meaningful enough to land the city on a tech jobs list? Seems doubtful that industry diversification would be enough to cause a boom to not be reflected in tech job rankings.
“not meaningful enough to land the city on a tech jobs list?”
As she said, by percentage of total jobs.
Looking at this (an eyeballing, rather than finding the actual numbers):
https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/02/where-in-the-united-states-are-the-high-tech-jobs.html
for *gross* number of tech jobs, Chicago is in the second tier (300-400k tech jobs), along with Boston, DFW and Seattle.
Top tier (over 400k) is SF, SJ, LA, NY, DC.
3d tier (200-300) looks to be SD, PHX, Austin, Houston, MSP, Detroit, ATL, Philly, Baltimore.
That’s 18 metros. Only two of which are in green for pergentage, rather than one of the blues: Chicago and Houston.
Lot of blue among the metros under 200k tech jobs, too (eg, front range).
So, yeah, completely possible to have (i) a lot of tech jobs, (ii) have had a significant increase in that number, AND (iii) not make a list of top metros by *percentage* of tech jobs.
“So there was a tech job boom, but not meaningful enough to land the city on a tech jobs list?”
Yes. Our other industries are just much, much bigger that it dwarfs the tech jobs. We have more industrial and transportation jobs than tech, even with thousands of new jobs being added in tech over the last 10 years.