Market Conditions: May Sales Continue to Slow as Median Price Jumps 8.1%
The Illinois Association of Realtors is out with the May 2024 home sales data.
Sales remain low in Chicago as inventory continues to decline. It was the slowest May since May 2020, which was impacted by the covid pandemic.
However, with such a tight market, median price is still on the rise. But note, that median is determined by the mix of the sales.
The city of Chicago saw a 2.4 percent year-over-year home sales decrease in May 2024 with 2,404 sales, down from 2,462 in May 2023. The median price of a home in the city of Chicago in May 2024 was $362,000, up 8.1 percent from May 2023 when it was $335,000.
May Sales:
- May 2008: 2119 sales
- May 2009: 1557 sales
- May 2010: 2057 sales
- May 2011: 1705 sales
- May 2012: 2037 sales
- May 2013: 2834 sales
- May 2014: 2453 sales
- May 2015: 2750 sales
- May 2016: 2980 sales
- May 2017: 3046 sales
- May 2018: 3047 sales
- May 2019: 2952 sales
- May 2020: 1701 sales
- May 2021: 3453 sales
- May 2022: 3374 sales
- May 2023: 2462 sales
- May 2024: 2404 sales
Median Price Data:
- May 2008: $319,500
- May 2009: $225,000
- May 2010: $230,000
- May 2011: $190,000
- May 2012: $203,000
- May 2013: $234,000
- May 2014: $269,250
- May 2015: $281,000
- May 2016: $290,750
- May 2017: $305,600
- May 2018: $305,000
- May 2019: $315,000
- May 2020: $313,000
- May 2021: $350,000
- May 2022: $350,500
- May 2023: $335,000
- May 2024: $362,000
“In May, we saw closed sales and days on market decrease while median sales price increased,” Erika Villegas, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and broker and owner of RE/MAX In the Village said. “Sellers should work with their REALTORS® to be prepared for a quick sale and buyers should get the ball rolling sooner rather than later as sales prices drift upwards. If you haven’t already, now is the time to talk to a REALTOR® to start exploring your options.”
For the first time in several years, statewide inventory actual rose year-over-year. It rose 2.1% to 18,295 from 17,925 in May 2023.
Is this a sign that inventory has finally bottomed?
In Chicago, however, inventory fell again. It declined 5.2% to 4,808 from 5,073 last year. For comparison:
- May 2019: 10,096
- May 2022: 7,115
- May 2023: 5.073
- May 2024: 4,808
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was up from April to 7.06% from 6.99%. It was also higher than a year ago when it was 6.43%.
It’s been pretty clear that any time the mortgage rate is above 7%, sales slow.
“Prices and the number of sales continued to increase during May,” said Dr. Daniel McMillen, Professor of Real Estate and Associate Dean for Faculty Affairs at the University of Illinois-Chicago College of Business Administration. “Our forecasts indicate that prices will begin their typical seasonal decline over the next three months. The number of sales is forecast to decline also. Surveys provide a mixed picture of the state of consumer confidence in the economy, despite low unemployment rates and significant declines in the rate of inflation.”
In May, days on the market actually declined 20.6% to 27 days from 34 days last year as buyers moved quickly to purchase once a new property was listed.
The spring market remained tight but now that summer is here, is it finally loosening?
Illinois home sales increased in May as the number of available homes rose [Illinois Association of Realtors, Press Release, by Bill Kozar, June 21, 2024]
I have a lot going on this month. I’m enjoying summer with my family. The Chicago market is dead right now.
I’ll probably be posting only 50% of the time this month.
Not sure about the Chicago market per se, but I blame the Fed overall for the continued crisis in housing. They’re trying to slow the economy to tame inflation, but their policy is causing housing market inflation and pain for the very working people they say they’re trying to help. I can’t understand why they’re so rigid, but it plays right into the hands of Trump when he asks people if they’re better or worse off today.
There will be bigger hell to pay if they don’t get inflation totally tamed. Hopefully, just a little longer. But they may have limited ability to reduce longer term rates due to the massive debt out there.
“There will be bigger hell to pay if they don’t get inflation totally tamed.”
Inflation is already tamed. Has been for most of this year. Fed’s problem is that they must keep it that way. With the stock market at new highs, lots of money still sloshing around out there. But wage pressures have fallen as the job market has weakened. Fed needed that.
As someone who lived through the Volcker years, the fed needs to continue tight money, and people need to stop whining about 7 percent interest rates. My first mortgage was 9.1 percent, and that was considered low.
“As someone who lived through the Volcker years, the fed needs to continue tight money, and people need to stop whining about 7 percent interest rates. My first mortgage was 9.1 percent, and that was considered low.”
You don’t seem to understand–the debt levels in the economy are much higher now than they are then. Student loans as an asset class are variable rate debt and now exceed credit card debt.
So you’re entire perspective of suck it up guys we got through it no reason you shouldn’t be able to similarly is based on one anecdote.
If anything absent student loan mass forgiveness, which doesn’t seem likely, real estate should adjust down even moreso than in the 1980s during similar % rises in rates to account for the other pools of money that are debt-based and must be serviced as well.
“Inflation is already tamed. Has been for most of this year. Fed’s problem is that they must keep it that way. With the stock market at new highs, lots of money still sloshing around out there. But wage pressures have fallen as the job market has weakened. Fed needed that.”
CPI was at 3.1% in June 2023 and was at 3.3% in May 2024. It has gone sideways for the past year and is nowhere near the 2.0% target rate. Many believe that it cannot be done without breaking the labor market/recession.
I had student loan debt at the time of my 9.1 percent mortgage.
Car loan, too, and the house was old, without nearly the space or amenities people take for granted today.
Oh, and Bucktown stopped at Armitage, r. e. shills weren’t so brazen in their lying.
You’re going to have to stop whining and try again.
“You’re going to have to stop whining”
right after
“Bucktown stopped at Armitage”
shows a severe lack of self-awareness.
I do also note the past tense.
“Student loans as an asset class are variable rate debt”
WTAF Bobbo:
94.81% of all student loan debt is federal.
Federal loan interest rates are fixed.
So, about $83b is *probably* variable.
Which is a gnat on the ass of the flea on the tail of the dog that is the credit market.
I’m simply stating facts re Bucktown, not pissing and moaning about expenses. The awareness is fine.
RE shills don’t get to call the shots.
“simply stating facts re Bucktown”
Yep, in 1982, you were right.
You ain’t right any more.
ps: get off my lawn!
“CPI was at 3.1% in June 2023 and was at 3.3% in May 2024. It has gone sideways for the past year and is nowhere near the 2.0% target rate. Many believe that it cannot be done without breaking the labor market/recession.”
Target is 2% to 3%. Last percent will always be the most difficult. The Fed has won. It has defeated the supply chain inflationary pressures. It has successfully cooled off the labor market without throwing the economy into a deep recession, or any recession at all. Wage pressures have abated. There is still a labor shortage, however, so I would expect some of the wage issues to remain in the coming years. And if Trump wins in 2024 and deports 5 million+ people, all bets are off about interest rates as it’s going to be really difficult to keep wages in check with 10 million+ labor shortage.
I’m not right? According to whom? A real estate shill?
Standards, dear child. One must have standards. Your sea-going principles put about too nimbly.
HJave you even been to Bucktown this century?
You’re on record having moved away decades ago.
Johnc,
Take the issue up with the Bucktown Community Organization https://www.bucktown.org/history
And when you win that argument you can work on reverting Louisiana to the original purchase area. But good luck debating the borders of Russia.
BCO admitted that it unilaterally declared expanded boundaries at the behest of r.e. Agents and other businesses that wanted to cash in on the Bucktown name. We discussed this many moons ago, Gary.
As for Louisiana and Seward’s folly, they ain’t Bucktown, so I don’t care.
Anon, I never said I moved out of Chicago, and I defy you to show where I said that I had moved out.
And by the way, I was in Bucktown two weeks ago. 2100 block of Hoyne to be precise. I left Bucktown, but not Chicago.
“moved out of Chicago”
I never said you did.
You moved out of Bucktown, tho, and thereby allowed the next (and next-next) generation to change the understanding of the neighborhood.
As is often referenced, the areas just outside of Holstein (some property shills changed the name at some point–probably during the Kraut scare of the late teens) ween’t properly the domain of another neighborhood. So they got absorbed in.
If you were arguing that *Holstein* rather than Bucktown can’t be changed, because it’s just a historical reference and not a current ‘place’, fair enough.
But you’re pretty much Abe Simpson yelling at clouds and reminiscing about the ‘good old days’ in diggety-six and diggety-eight (diggety-seven was a bad year, we all know). Bucktown has moved on.
Sing and dance all you want, but the shills and those they misled don’t call the shots.
I can’t imagine spending years arguing the boundaries of Bucktown, a neighborhood by his own admission, he left years ago (decades?).
Things change. Move on. My grandparents lived in Bucktown. It was a completely different place than what exists today.
By the way, big news out of the west side where the Reinsdorf and Wirtz families want to build a $7 billion development, including a Music Hall, hotel, 5,000 apartments, parks, retail.
Also will be using private money and have said they have funding to begin building the Music Hall next spring.
Is it any wonder why the luxury condos are being built in the West Loop? Entirely new neighborhood there, along with Fulton Market.
“the shills and those they misled don’t call the shots.”
NOR DO YOU!!
Your time has passed old man. Take a tip from Joe and stand aside.
Standing aside doesn’t make a shill not a shill.
Johnc is correct. We should go to original neighborhoods. Bucktown should not exist but Holstein should.
“doesn’t make a shill not a shill”
And…?
Shills named it Bucktown.
You’re braying about shills, while honoring a different shill.
Holstein is fine, as long as you keep it North of Armitage.