Market Conditions: Median Condo/Townhouse Prices Rise in North Side Neighborhoods
On Sunday, the Chicago Tribune highlighted 5 North Side neighborhoods where the median condo/townhouse price actually rose in 2008 compared to 2007.
The data was supplied by Midwest Real Estate Data, LLC.
Lincoln Square
- 2007: $275,950
- 2008: $305,000
North Center
- 2007: $381,000
- 2008: $385,000
Lake View
- 2007: $332,500
- 2008: $347,500
Lincoln Park
- 2007: $414,328
- 2008: $420,000
Near North
- 2007: $391,285
- 2008: $414,541
Home finance toolkit [Suzanne Cosgrove, Chicago Tribune, January 25, 2009]
I’m wondering what the breakdown is for each $100K. My guess is that Near North, LP, and LV are being skewed up from $800K+ sales. I’m also wondering how sales compared from 1st 1/2 and 2nd half after the equity markets took a $H!T in Oct. Any chance we can get a basic breakdown of sales?
Does anyone know what the change was for Andersonville and Edgewater?
The Tribune only gave data for these neighborhoods- so everything else must have been lower in 2008.
You might be able to find it on the Tribune real estate website. They have 4th Quarter sales and price info there.
I really enjoy being so right 🙂
Again… these numbers don’t mean anything without analyzing the specifics behind the actual sales. It may appear that avg sales price went up, but due to the limitations of the MLS, nobody knows if the avg square footage of the sales increased in 2008, or if the sales in 2008 had better quality improvements (nicer baths, kitchens, etc). In reality, the only way to obtain a clear indicator of what is really happening in terms of appreciation and depreciation is to compare prices 2007 and 2008 unit by unit, building by building.
Steve,
You are not right. Surely, you are kidding. How can anyone ascribe any meaning to these median price trends? As I’ve pointed out ad nauseum, this is skewed by the mix of units sold. There is a preponderance of evidence that prices are going down.
Heitman, do you really think anyone on this blog is going to fall for the median price BS? All this means is that the only sales that take place are at the higher end, since marginal places aren’t selling at all except at a deep discount. Anyone who has even the smallest understanding of statistics knows that the median does not say anything at all about the price of an individual unit. Did anyone buy in 06 and sell for a real profit in 08?
“Heitman, do you really think anyone on this blog is going to fall for the median price BS?”
When the medians were down slightly, he said that it was b/c of the mix. Stevo is very selective in his interpretation and use of data.
I have said 100 times that median prices mean nothing. Cut me some slack…
It does show that the high end still like these neighborhoods. The only time median’s are beneficial is over the long term.
Steve,
I’m not sure what you mean that “the high end still like these neighborhoods”. What I will agree to is that the volume in the high end has dropped off less than the volume in the low end. In a few months I will repeat my analysis of individual unit price changes and if nothing else I will demonstrate that you can come up with more creative interpretations of the data to support your beliefs. It’s like arguing religion.
The numbers here are 2007 to 2008. show me 3 year and 5 year stats, please!
I was at a website this weekend that showed stats for 1 year, 3 years and 5 years, and over a 5 year period, either LV or LP showed a 9.5% decrease in prices, as well as a lot of other supposedly “stable” areas on the North side.
Dag, I’m going to have to try to find where that was. SHOULD HAVE BOOKMARKED IT!
sales moving to higher end, before fall off the cliff etc. seen this before…
heh, I love Gary.
He is like some sort of superhero in his never ending quest to bring rationality to people like Steve.
But sadly I don’t think it’ll ever happen.
>
Don’t worry all you datahounds tomorrow is our monthly ritual: Case-Shiller Tuesday! Lets see how Chicagoland Condos and SFHs held up in the month of November. My prediction for the broader Chicagoland SFH index: 143.2. (And yes I just took the Sep-Oct trend and extrapolated)
I found what I had been looking for earlier in the week. It’s a “Median price heat map” on the Chicago Tribune site.
There’s some roll-overs on the map that you have to do to see the different neighborhood changes, and you might want to zoom out to see the full city map.
Here, it uses the traditional community areas, and it shows Lincoln Park median prices down 9.35% from last year, w/ a median of $444k.
So how does this jive with the article above? I’m confused!
The Chicago Tribune median price map may include all housing in that neighborhood. This post includes ONLY condos/townhouses (not single family or multi-family.)
I haven’t looked at the Tribune to see if that’s the case- but that would be my first guess.
face the facts LP prices will have more support than more outlying areas, I don’t think prices are going up but they won’t crash as much as say “West Bucktown/Wicker Park”…or if you want to get real crazy the Garfield Park area that 2 years ago was the fastest appreciating zip code in the US. Now it is the foreclosure capital!
Here is price per square foot data for Lake View, Lincoln Park, and Near North which can give some context to the median sale prices in the article. “Sample” refers to the number of “Total” condo/TH sales for which unit size was reported.
Area 8006 Lake View
Year Average YOY Median YOY
4Q2006 $271 ——— $264 ———
4Q2007 $267 -1.5% $259 -1.9%
4Q2008 $248 -7.1% $250 -3.5%
Year Sample % Total YOY
4Q2006 165 41% 401 ———
4Q2007 133 34% 386 -3.7%
4Q2008 113 45% 252 -34.7%
Area 8007 Lincoln Park
Year Average YOY Median YOY
4Q2006 $302 ——— $291 ———
4Q2007 $319 5.6% $308 5.8%
4Q2008 $291 -8.8% $279 -9.4%
Year Sample % Total YOY
4Q2006 106 37% 286 ———
4Q2007 97 44% 219 -23.4%
4Q2008 51 39% 130 -40.6%
Area 8008 Near North
Year Average YOY Median YOY
4Q2006 $386 ——— $349 ———
4Q2007 $413 7.0% $400 14.6%
4Q2008 $408 -1.2% $369 -7.8%
Year Sample % Total YOY
4Q2006 486 74% 655 ———
4Q2007 566 78% 722 10.2%
4Q2008 277 74% 376 -47.9%
Just like median sale prices, the Near North $/sf numbers are misleading. They include a large number of new construction closings where prices were established in prior years. It is likely that we will be seeing large $/sf drops in the coming months as fewer “old” contracts remain and developer ‘close-outs’ begin to dominate.