Market Conditions: New Construction Downtown Condo Sales Still Grim
Crain’s checked in with Appraisal Research for an assessment on new construction downtown condo sales for the third quarter. It should be no surprise that the numbers aren’t great.
Downtown developers sold 111 condos and townhomes in the third quarter, down from 150 in the second quarter but up from 56 a year ago, according to a report by Appraisal Research Counselors, a Chicago-based consulting firm.
Given current sales figures, developers are on track to sell about 600 units in 2010 which is about the same as 2009 and 2008. Remember, at the height of the boom they were selling anywhere from 6,000 to 8,000 units a year.
Many of the downtown sales this year were due to closings in some of the upscale buildings like the Elysian, Walton on the Park and 10 E. Delaware. On the flip side, other sales were due to prices being slashed by as much as 30% in some buildings like SoNo.
“Right now, we’re just kind of glued in place,” says Appraisal Research Vice-President Gail Lissner. “We’re just not seeing a lot of movement.”
As some condo towers go rental (Crain’s points out that Astoria Tower in the South Loop may soon add another 200 rental units to the rental market) and there is virtually no new construction being started, inventories have really started to shrink.
Developers had 3,402 unsold units at the end of the quarter, down from 7,689 in third-quarter 2007, according to Appraisal Research.
Some developers, like CMK, have been given loan extensions in order to ride out the worst of it.
“There are fewer and fewer competitors every quarter,” says Colin Kihnke, president of CMK Development Corp., the Chicago-based developer of a 46-story tower at 235 W. Van Buren St.
Buyers have signed contracts for about 460, or 64%, of the building’s 714 condos and closed on roughly 40% of the units, he says. With about 250 condos left, CMK isn’t out of the woods yet, but it has plenty of time to get the job done. The project’s construction loan doesn’t come due until 2013, including extensions written into the loan agreement, Mr. Kihnke says.
In addition, 235 W. Van Buren offers lower-priced units that appeal to first-time buyers, the strongest segment of the market. Condos in the building start at $179,900 for a studio and run up to $1.1 million for a penthouse, with an average price of $319 a square foot, according to Appraisal Research.
Still, sales have been slow at the building, which has reported just 20 purchase contracts in the past year. And the tight lending climate remains an obstacle, even though mortgage rates are near historic lows.
“You’ve got to work with a purchaser who may need to pay off a credit-card bill or pay off a car (to qualify for a loan) — crazy stuff,” Mr. Kihnke says. “It’s a different world.”
With inventories shrinking, will we soon see demand really start to pick up for new product? If so- when?
2012?
2013?
2014?
Downtown condo sales ‘kind of glued in place’ [Crain’s Chicago Business, Alby Gallun, November 22, 2010]
Of course, declining inventory has no impact on demand. But there are well known problems with buying new that should dampen demand until the resale inventory dwindles: 1) What will your assessments really be? 2) How much will the developer drop prices soon after you buy?
I recall that the amount of condo units that were coming to the market around 2 years ago was 6 – 7k. If we are down to half of that…then things are moving right along. It may not feel like it or even feel good (like we are out of the recession), but its nice to see inventory moving.
Without your brain saying, “buying is a great investment.” what is the incentive to purchase a condo? If it is your first place, do I really want to live here for the next 10 years? (Answer No) If you are buying a second place, do I really feel comfortable with prices given our present economy?(No) If you are recently married and need to consolidate your present 2 condos down to one, do I really want to take the big financial hit to sell this place? (No)
So what is going to kick start real estate? Low Rates (no), affordable prices (no), tax incentives (no), lose lending practices (no, not again)
I can’t find that, you would be a fool not to do it, reason for average joes to be in real estate right now.
“I can’t find that, you would be a fool not to do it, reason for average joes to be in real estate right now”
The biggest reason to buy is that the alternative (renting) might be worse!!!
There are a lot of downsides to renting:
1. You have no assurances on price
2. You have no assurance on availability
3. You can’t upgrade/fix anything up, and
4. You can’t write off your rent.
At least if you buy a place, in addition to avoiding the above mentioned problems, there is also a chance (maybe small) that it might appreciate in the next 3-6 years (especially if you fix it up, etc.).
I agree with Gary. Much better to buy a 2-5 year old resale with all the bells and whistles than to buy new. Fewer large investors in older buildings, known assessments, and any issues with the developer will be known and most likely cured.
Buying in a building like CMK will led to more questions than answers. There is anticipation of more price decreases. Also, assessments probably will rise significantly. I think they will probably only sell another 50 units in 2011, and the building will be in a holding pattern till mid-2012.
Dan,
Babyboomers who want to retire will fuel the condo sales. They want to downsize, leave the boring burbs, and purchase condos. My mom is one of them and is in the market as well as many of her friends. Yes, she sold her house for less than she liked, but she purchased in the 80s so its not like she lost money. She’s looking forward to city living, no yard, no work maintaining a house, and great restaurants and theater.
Comments like the one from ‘Dan’ make me think we’re nearer a bottom than I thought. When everyone is saying there’s no reason to buy, that’s when the smart value investors hold their noses and buy.
“CMK Development Corp., the Chicago-based developer of a 46-story tower at 235 W. Van Buren St.”
Curious there is no mention of the numerous other recently completed CMK buildings with a rash of foreclosures. Why didn’t the article mention 1720, or even 1620 S Michigan (2nd in foreclosures in the S Loop after River City)?
I wonder how the buyers of 235WVB, 1720 and 1620 S Michigan are holding up these days?
“Babyboomers who want to retire will fuel the condo sales.”
We’ve chattered about this argument before. In some buildings, yes, babyboomers will be buying. But they’re not buying 1 bedroom units and they’re not going to be buying outside of downtown (most likely)- in neighborhoods like Lakeview and Lincoln Park where there continues to be a glut of condos. Most babyboomers aren’t going to be walking up 3 flights of stairs in a 3-flat.
But they’ve also still got to sell their homes in the burbs. It’s not like the next generation has the money to move up (they’re trying to sell their downtown condos!) There may be a few like your mother who bought so long ago she can price it right- but many cannot. Hence, the glut of upper end homes on the market in the North Shore and other suburbs.
Now is a good time to buy for the first time relative to the peak a few years ago but I’m not sure we’re close to the bottom and timing it just doesn’t work. Another advantage of buying a condo in the city is the commute time for working downtown. I takes me 15 minutes to walk to work. Being able to go home for lunch and get back before the kids go to sleep is worth the extra hassles and costs of living in the city.
Clio, there is also a chance that you could buy, upgrade your place and it depreciates in value. I bought in 2009 and did some remodeling, but if I were to sell now, based on the comps, it would be for 10K less than what I paid.
“and timing it just doesn’t work.”
Yeah it sure can. Our government printed a massive amount of money to try to keep the asset bubble inflated so we’re really about two years behind this downturn than where we should be. Just now (finally) our government has gotten the picture that they can’t keep printing money to try to keep the bubble alive so we’re in for a sharp downward retrenchment. You can look at various data points to see this.
Ned – I bet your place will be worth 10k (or even more) more than what you paid in 1-2 years. Timing is everything. We are definitely bumping the ground near or at the bottom. With rates low, if someone is in the market there is NO reason for them to wait IF they find a place they like. However, I do agree that there is no rush to go out and buy – I think prices will be steady for the next year or two.
True, the babyboomers and retirees have to sell and there are fewer buyers moving up to their homes. But, many of these sellers can takehuge price cuts if they bought before 2000 and many of them did. I think they are just beginning to come around to large price cuts. Two years ago my mother would have never accepted the offer she just did. She realized that life was too short ( and dull in the burbs) and that she could get a good deal on a condo in the city. Your correct downtown, doorman and elevator buildings (streeterville, River North, Gold Coast, Old Town, and LP) are the most attractive destinations for these buyers. However, I’m finding that this generation (unless totally rich) is less persuaded buy all the amenties (party room, lounge, etc…) that many new buildings have. They are interested in good layouts (giving up a real kitchen is hard to do), quality construction, views (b/c they didn’t have them in the burbs) and well run buildngs with reasonble reserves and assessments. Many are trying to live on fixed retirement incomes and are not interested in lots of amenities which could cost lots in assessments. Oddly, my mom is really serious about a totally renovated unit in a loft building in RN with fabulous views and reasonable assessments. I would have never taken her for a loft lover but I think she and her generation are looking for something totally different than their suburban lifestyle.
“Just now (finally) our government has gotten the picture that they can’t keep printing money to try to keep the bubble alive so we’re in for a sharp downward retrenchment.”
False. The govermnet is printing more money now…ahem QE2.
“do I really want to live here for the next 10 years? (Answer No) If you are buying a second place, do I really feel comfortable with prices given our present economy?(No)”
WTF? Your personal thoughts only represent you, not me. I want to live here for the next ten years. I am comfortable with the current prices for non-toxic assets. I will make money over the next ten years on my place regardless of what you think.
Given the context of this thread, I know the reason minimal new construction is taking place is because of the following:
1) Financing. It’s really hard for a developer to get financing.
2) Plans. People do not want to live in a 400k+ 2/2, 1000 sqft place – not yet – if they do not feel they can flip it for a profit.
3) Location. Cabrini (RN arguably) will be the next big “thing.” Unfortunately, not SLOOP, WLOOP, WTOWN, HP, etc…Until they complete the evictions/tear downs, this is stagnant with the exception of the continuation of the Parkside Town Homes or w/e mid rise they are currently building.
well bob, the CMK buildings in River north are holding up decently well
certianly not like the south loop carnagefest. If 235 WVB is indeed selling for $319 a sqft that is actually really good news
“) Location. Cabrini (RN arguably) will be the next big “thing.””
Nope. Tons of foreclosures and short-sales in those 3-flats (that look like SFHs) near Cabrini. Remember Cabrini ain’t going away completely (as of today) and neither are the other projects nearby. It will just be less visible.
Although if you were to pick up a 2/1.5 in one of those 3-flats for like 160k (what the distressed ones are listed for) I don’t see you losing money.
“False. The govermnet is printing more money now…ahem QE2.”
QE2 is $600B, it pales in comparison to the fiscal and monetary stimulus that our government has been printing since 2008. Yeah its big but its impact will be muted–its not like 30bps cheaper on your mortgage will goose demand to the extent the 8k tax credit did.
“Nope. Tons of foreclosures and short-sales in those 3-flats (that look like SFHs) near Cabrini. Remember Cabrini ain’t going away completely (as of today) and neither are the other projects nearby. It will just be less visible.”
I would short sale/foreclose too given the state cabrini is in today. As far as the future, it will be the “next” Chicago neighorbood (may take 10+ years). I am referring to the 4 or 5 story building right there on Division/Larrabee – forget the name – but they are building another one just south of the PD station on larrabee, across from the Church.
My point about QE2 is that if it fails, there will be QE3, QE4, etc…according to Bernake (printing a whole lot more moola)
QE2 only brings forward the spending and it in fact reduces total spending over time (for those particular Treasuries that will be purchased).
For each Treasury, the government was going to pay X years of coupons plus $1000 at the end. Now they are eliminating the coupons* and paying $1030 right now. This ends up being less money.
* – The Federal Reserve sends excess profits to the Treasury at the end of every year. They sent about $45 billion to the Treasury last year, so every dollar the Treasury sends them in QE2 coupons will get added to the pile over the next 10 years.
“Remember Cabrini ain’t going away completely (as of today) and neither are the other projects nearby.”
Yes, Cabrini is completely going away completely because it is some of the most sought after RE in Chi-town and the surrounding areas are also some of the nicest in the Chi (LP, RN, OT, GC).
imagine the tax $$$ the city could raise from getting rid of those dregs and developing all that land
On the topic of QE2,3,4 etc – people worry about printing money, and compare us to Zimbabwe and Argentina, but there is a HUGE difference – our country is pretty self sufficient. Yes we import cheap toys and clothes, and oil, but we can recreate the former two industries here, and the latter – well I don’t think many people would be too remiss if we started using less oil in this country. It will mean no more BMWs and Mercs and people buying more locally produced cars like Fords (which have gotten a TON better). So if we inflate the dollar to oblivion – we at least can survive given the size of the country and the breadth of our local industries.
“Cabrini is completely going away completely”
If you can show a credible source from this I’d be delighted and all ears. I’ve only read one article speculating that the remaining row homes might not be rehabbed and instead removed but it was far from definitive and sounded more like speculation.
“imagine the tax $$$ the city could raise from getting rid of those dregs and developing all that land”
The few of those dregs that do vote support the machine and the accompanying handouts all the way. And the local pols know this–its a delicate balancing act not p_ssing off a large portion of your constituents.
and yet they would likely get more actual tax paying north side voters to support the machine if they got rid of them and sent them to the south side or kankakee where they belong.
well tax paying and campaign contributing is what I meant…
I am still very skeptical of the surrounding area of Cabrini – even though there were about only about 30 families left as of 2009, the area was/is still sketchy. The people hanging out there are no way only the people that still live/d in Cabrini – so there clearly is still a draw to that area for shady loitering even with Cabrini almost completely gone. If knocking Cabrini down were to rid the area of all that activity, why is it still so sketchy? I had two friends that live near there that were subject to some pretty crazy ransack break-ins.
If you had kids and had to move today, would you chose the West or South Loop or a townhouse within a three block radius of Cabrini site? Honest question.
“If you had kids and had to move today, would you chose the West or South Loop or a townhouse within a three block radius of Cabrini site? Honest question.”
I don’t have kids but I’d have to think the area IS going to get better. Its my understanding mixed-income housing that replaced Cabrini has many restrictions on the residents and there were also far fewer units so.
At least the area around Division. As far as Chicago ave well those rowhomes are slated to stay so, no, it won’t.
I’ve actually considered buying one of those units in the three flats. The location is bleh but its a safe bet that removing public housing residents from the area will improve the neighborhood.
“If you had kids and had to move today, would you chose the West or South Loop or a townhouse within a three block radius of Cabrini site? Honest question”
I would move to the suburbs…..
WC:
I’m likely biased as I am in Old Town now, but have lived in South Loop.
My answer is going to depend on schools. If you are planning on going to a public school and your kids is not going to magnet/test well, then I’d say South Loop Dearborn Park II.
If schooling is not part of the equation, then I would choose closer to Cabrini. I’m pretty scared of the carnage in the S. Loop right now. Out of all the downtown and nearby surrounding areas, IMHO S. Loop is the most Miami/Las Vegas *kerbloom*ish
sketch factor aside – what are the actual crime statistics for the cabrini area? We all know about the owner of Munchies but that was a news story…
I live in one the luxury buildings near Cabrini and have a child. We live in a very secure doorman building. I love its proximity to Whole Foods, LP and downtown. We are close to kids activities (the new Erie/Montgomery Park playground, Bubbles, Fantasy Kingdom, Whole Foods, etc..) and its not too congested like ELP, Streeterville, but I don’t have to give up my downtown lifestyle. The River North parents group is really strong.
Cabrini is not totally gone but rapidly dimishing. In the four years that I have lived in this area, the “people hanging out” have decreased. I have never had a safety scare (though I own secured parking). I think the few remaining stores that the loiterers are attracted too will eventually go away as their patrons disappear. The CHA row houses are supposed to stay and be rehabbed (though there is rumor they might be torn down b/c of costs of mold remediation), these buildings are for families and have strict criminal background checks. This makes the neighborhood no different than Old Town (with the Marshall Field homes and CHA homes on North Ave) or LP (which also has senior and CHA housing) Every neighborhood will have a few blocks of CHA housing under the new plan. The difference is that area of RN has outstanding views especially since the federal government’s funding of the removal of Cabrini sets density/height restrictions. Some of those highrises/midrises will keep their fab views. The three flats, however, might lose their views and are currently not nearly as safe as the surrounding big buildings (Domain Lofts, Larrabee Lofts, Montgomery, etc…). I think this neighborhood will only improve. It may take awhile longer than residents hope given the econonmy (few new shops and restaurants)and lack of building, but eventually this location will be tops. FYI…the Parkside just converted one of the buildings to rentals, which is probably a good thing so as not to continue to saturate the market. Besides, there needs to be at least one rental building in the area.
What are the luxury buildings near Cabrini?
Highrises include — the Montgomery (http://themontgomery.net/), which is 1 block from the CHA row houses. It is full service with a stunning lobby. 510 West Erie (http://510werie.com) is also full service and has some fabulous views. For loft lovers, two of the city’s best loft buildings are there — the Domain and One River Place Lofts. Both have some sizable lofts (some with fabulous east facing views of the skyline), doorman, party room, fitness centers, heated parking. I think the Domain Lofts has in building drycleaner and a rooftop track. By luxury, I mean full amenity with some large, expensive homes. Not everyone with money wants to be with the frat boys in ELP or in the Viagra triangle. Some people want modern design and understated elegance.
maybe the old montgomery wards high rise?
I wouldn’t call the Old Montgomery Wards building lux.
any others?
Well then please explain your definition of lux. Doorman, fabulous lobby, fabulous views, and many million dollar plus condos with custom arclinea kitchens. check redfin or the mls for sales. Many homes in the 1 million – 2 million range. What is your definition of luxury?
anybody movie stars or lambo drivers living there?
“If you had kids and had to move today, would you chose the West or South Loop or a townhouse within a three block radius of Cabrini site?”
Cabrini. Period. Because it is heavily policied compared to WLOOP or SLOOP.
“What are the luxury buildings near Cabrini?”
Everything on the south side of Chicago Ave though may not be considered luxury to some: (The Montgomery, 150 W Superior, 757 Orleans, 340 W Superior, The townhomes @ 450ish W Superior, , The McMansions, 849 Franklin), and the northside of Chicago: 900 N Kingsbury (arguably), 1000 Kingsbury (agruably) other McMansions
“If you can show a credible source from this I’d be delighted and all ears.”
Can’t. Just close to some people invloved in many “proposed” projects (no pun intended on the pj’s), from high rises, mid rises, parks, retail… and my saavy investor crystal ball that says this area is a future gold mine.
The opposing factors are Near North HS and the Marshall Field Garden Apartments among others just to name a few…
The definition of “luxury” is so different to different people. I know people that live in that area and all of them fit a certain mold: 30s-40s relatively high income (200-400k) with few assets. Those I know that are older, have high incomes (400k+) or at least a few million in assets don’t live in this area and likely never will.
“The few of those dregs that do vote support the machine and the accompanying handouts all the way. And the local pols know this–its a delicate balancing act not p_ssing off a large portion of your constituents.”
Bob nailed it here. Well said!
@a local:
little sensitive?
My background in the downtown area. Lived in Printers Row, Streeterville, Gold Coast, Old Town hence what I list below is what I know
My definitions: Lux is like 30 W Oak. Eleysian Palmolive. Trump.
Grand Old Dames (but not lux): Hancock, Water Tower
Nice: a lot out there…
Not so nice: 777? N. Michigan? Or 545 ish N. Michigan. NW corner of Grand and Michigan.
—
#1 So the questions stands. What are the luxury buildings around Cabrini-Green?
Per wiki this was the boundary for Cabrini:
“Cabrini–Green is a Chicago Housing Authority (CHA) public housing development on Chicago’s Near North Side, bordered by Evergreen Avenue on the north, Sedgwick Street on the east, Chicago Avenue on the south, and Halsted Street on the west.”
#2 May I also have the exact address for the Mont Ward building to look on Redfin?
“Cabrini. Period. Because it is heavily policied compared to WLOOP or SLOOP.”
Huh? Is this your opinion or do you have some data showing this? If that’s true, then i guess i’d expect # of crimes or severity to be less than WLOOP or SLOOP. Everyblock doesnt back that up. What’s your source on this?
Regarding Lux:
Ah…hence why I might not know about Lux buildings as I am towards the North Ave side of Cabrini vs. the South of Chicago Ave area (which I do consider closer to River North).
757 Orleans as Lux? REALLY I MEAN REALLY????
—
Cabrini does have that police station on Division.
In the South Loop, there is that police station right around the Dearborn Park area on State or Dearborn.
I don’t know for the West Loop
“In the South Loop, there is that police station right around the Dearborn Park area on State or Dearborn.”
….such terrible memories- I think I finally realized why I am so averse to the s loop.
Have any of the mayoral candidates expressed views on the fate of Cabrini?
Chichow..not sensitivity. I’ve lived in many parts of Chicago and think that this area is a hidden gem. Actually, I rather like that it is not crowded like the gold coast or streeterville.
The Montgomery is right the corner of Chicago and Larrabee on the south side of Chicago. While it is technically 5 feet outside of your defined area of Cabrini (which no longer really exists), its really just a block from the CHA rowhomes. I think clio describes the area best – 40-50+ individuals won’t live here no matter how fabulous b/c when they were 20 somethings it was Cabrini. Younger DINKs and families will buy into luxury buildings here, especially because it is a good neighborhood for kids and that is the their current stage of life.
The Domain, the other Montgomery Ward building, is on the north side of Chicago avenue and technically within chichow’s boundaries. That building has smaller 1 bedroom/2 bedroom units with standard developer finishings (not lux) as well as some units that were purchased from the developer as raw space or (or since renovated) and were built out to include lux finishings. A bigger mix of unit types in that building. Some lux with large terraces and views (i.e., several penthouses)( and others small, no lux and face an interior courtyard (no view but your neigbors).
As for schools, the south side of Chicago Avenue is zoned into Ogden School. The north side of Chicago Ave is zoned into Jenner, which is not very good, but those kids get bonus points on the magnet/gifted process b/c they are not considered in the highest quartile of income (like the old town, gold coast, and south of Chicago avenue) and thus compete for some set aside slots against lower income students. Also, under new criteria announced last week, these kids get a bonus for being zoned in to a not so great elementary. The high school is Lincoln Park, which is as good as it gets for pubic without testing in. In any event, most parents on the north side of Chicago avenue send their kids to private school.
The random crime is diminishing and the most recent violent acts (2 murders – Munchies owner and one other two year ago) were not random acts of violence. The perps hunted them down. Obviously, this is not good, but it does not suggest that random acts of violence abound. Certainly no worse than the rapes in LP and Lakeview that have occurred in recent months.
“Huh? Is this your opinion or do you have some data showing this? If that’s true, then i guess i’d expect # of crimes or severity to be less than WLOOP or SLOOP. Everyblock doesnt back that up. What’s your source on this?”
No data, strictly subjective and my opinion. WLoop and SLoop are suurounded by such bad neighborhoods, that it doesn’t take much for a degenerate to float a little. Cabrini, as stated earlier, is borderd by LP, RN, OT, etc…(not that LP is the safest hood by any means). Less likely for one to float.
“Oddly, my mom is really serious about a totally renovated unit in a loft building in RN with fabulous views and reasonable assessments.”
We really *are* going to end up paying for all the boomers in retirement. Your mom knows that the city is at least 3 times the cost of living as the “boring burbs” are, right? I suppose her income has gone up in retirement to support her desire to move downtown?
I can’t use two hands to count all the North Shore retirees and divorcées I know who bankrupted themselves within 5 years of moving to the city. Those were people that had some money.
Doesn’t anyone else think it’s weird that you see WAY less blue hairs walking around the GC these days? It’s cause they all went broke and don’t live there anymore.
Your suggestion that the boomers (who got us into this mess by fuelling the specuvestor madness) are going to save downtown RE valuations isn’t quite as laughable as you calling RN a “hidden gem”, but it’s up there.
Saw the “graffiti patrol” power washing several large “pieces” on Armitage this morning. That along with the open air drug markets that have been booming in LP since this Summer are sure to attract all the boomers back to the city!
Next Summer, LP and RN are going to look more like Rogers Park and the far Sloop then what they have looked like for the last 5 years.
Things aren’t even that bad yet, just wait until all those DePaul parents run out of money or start sending their kids to state schools and we lose THAT component holding up LP rents and valuations. It’s already happening.
Calling this the bottom might be the funniest thing I’ve ever heard.
a local – “The Domain, the other Montgomery Ward building…”
The Domain has plenty of 500k-1 million dollar condos with realitvely high end finishes and was the first renovation of the wards bulding. 12-20ft ceilings, level wood floors, double insulated/double dry wall. The penthouse floor was added on-top of the existing structure in 2003-4. Interesting enough, those with the courtyard views also have views of the city and lake while being extremely quiet. I call it the “Cruise Ship Building!” and is considered to be the #2 in terms of luxury. The 2nd Wards building to be developed is actually south of Chicago (has angel on top) and was designed to have lesser luxury than the Domain, hence #3. The Montgomery was the last to be developed and is considered the most luxurious of all @ #1.
ChiChow – “My definitions: Lux is like 30 W Oak. Eleysian Palmolive. Trump.”
I would define these as ultra lux given they are some of the absolute, most luxurious places to live in a major city.
“Calling this the bottom might be the funniest thing I’ve ever heard.”
uhhhh Chicago is not some small mining or farm town with one company employing most of the residents. There are thousands of people out there still making a HUGE amount of money. True, the fringe areas/neighborhoods as well as the not-so-nice buildings in the nice areas are going to continue to suffer, but if you buy in a good area in a good building – NOW is DEFINITELY the time to buy (mainly because of the interest rates). Places in highly sought after areas will always be in high demand and prices are unlikely to come down further in these areas/buildings.
“Next Summer, LP and RN are going to look more like Rogers Park and the far Sloop then what they have looked like for the last 5 years.
Things aren’t even that bad yet, just wait until all those DePaul parents run out of money or start sending their kids to state schools and we lose THAT component holding up LP rents and valuations. It’s already happening.
Calling this the bottom might be the funniest thing I’ve ever heard.”
You sir, are an idiot, and your callsign is not representive of your style. You should change it to “ChicagoBear” because you are no means a “Bull”.
A-Fed – unfortunately your opinion isn’t really backed up by the crime data.
i actually think it’s more likely for burglary/robberty to occur IN the LP/RN by people who live in these “bad neighborhoods” because frankly they know that’s where the goods are most likely to be and people are more likely to feel off-guard beacuse they have a false notion of being safe and therefore do not not take add’l precautions. Remember all those LP robberies/rapes last winter?
if you know people who have been assaulted, robbed, etc. in the “safe, good” neighborhoods with high police presence (and the perp was caught), bet that the perp was NOT from LP, RN, but came up there from somewhere else to commit crime.
not trying to argue, i just am challenging your mindset 🙂
ps – have you ever lived in the south loop or west loop?
A lot of things have started turning cash flow positive at current prices. I think that is the first thing needed to find a bottom. If you can make out even to your costs renting it then its a decent price.
Actually 500 W. Superior (the montgomery) is in the Wells HS district, which is one of the worst high schools in the entire city
“Next Summer, LP and RN are going to look more like Rogers Park and the far Sloop then what they have looked like for the last 5 years.”
Government is now directly disbursing college student loans = low rates state, tuition keeps skyrocketing = education bubble continues unabated.
As long as an 18yr old can take out 150k worth of loans to attend a school they want to go to they will. Remember living expenses are included in financial aid determination.
These people won’t be the saviors of the RE market though when they graduate and (possibly) get jobs–they’ll be so heavily indebted with debt that can’t be discharged that there will be no demand from them in the future.
“Next Summer, LP and RN are going to look more like Rogers Park and the far Sloop then what they have looked like for the last 5 years.
Things aren’t even that bad yet, just wait until all those DePaul parents run out of money or start sending their kids to state schools and we lose THAT component holding up LP rents and valuations. It’s already happening.”
I’ll bet you everything I have that this doesn’t happen. For obvious reasons that are way over the level of your intellect, I’m not even going to bother to waste my time going into details.
“Saw the ‘graffiti patrol’ power washing several large ‘pieces’ on Armitage this morning. That along with the open air drug markets that have been booming in LP since this Summer are sure to attract all the boomers back to the city!
Next Summer, LP and RN are going to look more like Rogers Park and the far Sloop then what they have looked like for the last 5 years.
Things aren’t even that bad yet, just wait until all those DePaul parents run out of money or start sending their kids to state schools and we lose THAT component holding up LP rents and valuations. It’s already happening.”
First, how many areas of this city actually dispatch a “graffiti patrol”? Not many. By your own evidence, resources continue to be allocated to keep LP nicer than most areas.
Second, DePaul apps are up 50 percent over last year.
Third, if LP is going to look like Rogers Park next summer…what will the rest of the city looks like?
“ps – have you ever lived in the south loop or west loop?”
No but several of my friends do. Two have had their vehicles broken into (one in an unsecured high-rise parking garage, the other on the street). Another one of my friends, a woman, was mugged – the robber pinned her up against the wall and took her purse. She was glad she wasn’t beaten, stabbed, or raped. This all occured between 1700 S Mich and 2100 S Mich.
Crime can occur anywhere. It’s just that it doesn’t take much for someone to walk a few blocks, mug someone, and walk back. Though this doesn’t defend that Cabrini is safer argument, I do feel safe knwoing pretty much everytime I drive through Cabrini I see several marked and unmarked police cars as well as uniformed and plain clothes officers – not that CPD isn’t as shady as the robber himself!
As for WLoop, another one of my friends was taking a cab back to his place off Madison, near west end, when the cabbie floored it down an alley, suddenly stoped and my friend couldn’t get out (child locks). Three men proceeded to open the vehicle and puch him in the face while one cut him across the chest with a knife. He ran, blood pouring everywhere, to get away, succeeding by finding a cab headed in the opposite direction. Immediately hopped in that one and headed straight to the hospital. He was OK but has the 6″ scar on his chest to proove it.
A-fed, really? really?! that stuff only happens in movies. What cab driver is going to be in cahoots with muggers? This would have been all over the news. Also, how was it that your friend couldn’t get out, but the perpetrators could get in? I don’t know, maybe your friend THOUGHT that is what happened, but maybe it happened a little differently (I go through the same thing most weekends – the memory loss and lack of accurate recall- not the stabbing part).
“This would have been all over the news.”
Absolutely not. It rarely hits the news because:
1) Bad press for CPD and Chicago
2) Someone has to tell the press
Another friend use to live at Irving Park / LSD in a high rise. I was at his condo to have a few day-drinks when we looked outside and there was a bunch of police officers, ambulances, etc…Apparently a woman jumped out of a high floor window, smacking the pavement and immediate death. No mention was made on the news…
This is still a large city Clio, and just as you say there are plenty of wealthy people, there is plenty of bad stuff that happens that we do not know about. I personally was jumped by 4 individuals a year and a half ago…biggest mistake they ever made and I have the scar on my face to proove it (one guy had a ring on but now he has no teeth).
A-Fed, I cant dispute any of your stories – I guess it just surprises me how rampant/unsafe you believe Sloop/Wloop are…because my husband has lived in Sloop for 3 years now (me for one) and we know all our neighbors, condo board, etc. pretty well. The only incident that has ever occurred in our 90 unit buildings was one time a guy got into the garage and took a bicycle for a joy ride around the lot and took some stuff out of of a car in the garage.
When I lived on Armitage in LP, we regularly got community alerts about rapes off brown line stop, break-ins (one of my friends actually got their door kicked in and they RANSACKED the place. took everything except the bedsheets. it was crazy), and hold-ups (rex grossmans sister in front of her kids in her SFH garage was one i remember).
However, I will give you this – it could be possible that our ward just doesnt put out frequent crime communication like LP did.
A-fed maybe you are right – but you really have to be careful wherever you are in the city. Several months ago, I was walking my dogs on Walton east of Michigan and this group of na’er-do-wells actually threw a water bottle at my head.
Yes, yes, crimes, including violent crimes, happen in LP, GC, etc. When I lived in NYC, I recall several uncomfortable situations – in broad daylight – in the West Village, one of the city’s most expensive areas (it’s like a fancier ELP/Old Town Triangle, only with a large gay population and some streets/buildings that are older than this country). And guess what: whenever something really bad happens in the West Village, or the upper East or West Sides along Central Park, it’s a big deal, just as it is in LP, etc.
This just comes with living in a big city. Obviously, those who draw attention or ask for it, provoke or what not, typically get it at some point.
The point I am trying to make is just because you are in a “bad” part of town (ie Cabrini), doesn’t mean bad things will happen, opposed to “good” parts of town (ie WL, SL) where you are just as vulnerable.
“I was walking my dogs on Walton east of Michigan and this group of na’er-do-wells actually threw a water bottle at my head”
You are lucky they didn’t throw a brick.
“doesn’t mean bad things will happen, opposed to “good” parts of town (ie WL, SL) where you are just as vulnerable.”
Dunno about Cabrini but depending on your neighborhood in Chicago you can actually be much less “vulnerable”. Go down and live in the wild 100s for awhile and get back to us about how you are as “vulnerable” in WL, SL.
Not saying Cabrini is bad but there are neighborhoods in Chicago that just aren’t safe for anyone to live in.
“Buying in a building like CMK will led to more questions than answers. There is anticipation of more price decreases. Also, assessments probably will rise significantly. I think they will probably only sell another 50 units in 2011, and the building will be in a holding pattern till mid-2012.”
My wife and I are in the market for a downtown condo and we are baby boomers. I would like to understand (asking for advice)why you think assessments will rise significantly in a “new” building?
that water bottle story is odd. was their water in it? what kind of dog were you walking?
Haven’t heard that phrase in a while.
“Go down and live in the wild 100s”
Sonies-“Actually 500 W. Superior (the montgomery) is in the Wells HS district, which is one of the worst high schools in the entire city”
Actually, the Domain lofts at 900 N. Kingsbury St, two blocks from former Cabrini and 1 1/2 blocks from CHA row homes, is nicely zoned into Lincoln Park H.S., probably the best high school apart from those you test into.
I would argue the presence of a graffiti patrol is an indication that a neighborhood is on the right track.
I think a lot of Chicagoans in the GZ are highly over sensitized to nuisance crime and “scary” looking people. I was amazed at how segregated this city is when I moved here a few years ago, and I think it leaves a lot of people feeling insulated from crime that naturally happens in all cities. Chicago is one of the safest, boring/homogeneous, places I have ever lived. It’s a great town, but c’mon, man up a little. If I lived in Hyde Park instead of Lincoln Park, it would be a whole different world, instead Chicago treats socio-economic and racial differences like a middle school dance “everyone to different sides of the room”. I’m a big fan of integrated, diverse, urban neighborhoods. Lincoln Park gives you big box stores and an army of lawyers riding the El. Lakeview and W-Ville gives you 5 extra years of Michigan State.
You’re asking for it if you are stumbling around in ANY neighborhood at 3am in a city. I never understood how my fellow residents on the North Side can be so naive about being targets. Being hijacked by a cab driver is an entirely different matter, but don’t be surprised to be mugged just because you’re in the 60614 area code.