Market Conditions: November Median Home Price Fell 12.3% YOY in Chicago But Sales Rose
It’s that time of the month again. The Illinois Association of Realtors is out with the November sales data. Hooray! Something to chatter about at the slow time of the year.
As we already know from G posting the data a few weeks ago, sales rebounded but the median price continues to plunge as short/REO properties make up more of the sales.
From the IAR:
In the city of Chicago, November 2011 home sales (single family and condominiums) totaled 1,377, up 20.4 percent from 1,144 homes sold in November 2010. The city of Chicago median home sale price for November 2011 was $160,000, down 12.3 percent compared to November 2010 when it was $182,500.
Here is the November data for the past 5 years (post boom) Thanks to G for the short/REO data:
- November 2007: 1859 sales and median price of $290,000
- November 2008: 1093 sales and median price of $222,500 (16% short/REO sales)
- November 2009: 1905 sales and median price of $215,000 (29% short/REO sales)
- November 2010: 1144 sales and median price of $182,500 (39% short/REO sales)
- November 2011: 1377 sales and median price of $160,000 (43% short/REO sales)
Here is the condo data from the last 2 years (thanks G!):
- November 2010: 651 sales and median price of $225,000
- November 2011: 742 sales and median price of $189,900
It’s all about the distressed sales at this point. They continue to crush prices.
“Little by little, there is some accumulating evidence that there may be some measure of recovery in the housing market,” said Dr. Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) of the University of Illinois. “The positive trends in both Illinois and the Chicago PMSA housing markets stem in large part from the fact that the housing inventory levels are low and the pending home sales indices are high. The month’s supply of homes on the market is 10.3 and 10.4, respectively, for the state and the Chicago PMSA, and are the lowest since January 2010.”
Adds Hewings: “Factors working against the housing recovery are the stock of distressed properties and unemployment hovering in the 9 to 10 percent range.”
“The market is being stimulated by buyers who are doing their homework and buying at the most compelling price they can, while sellers are working aggressively with their REALTORS® to price their homes to sell,” said REALTOR® Bob Floss, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and broker-owner of Bob Floss and Son Realty. “Chicago is seeing a combination of unit absorption paired with distressed homes that are still pushing down sale prices. Low interest rates and smart opportunities to buy make for favorable market conditions for both buyers and sellers looking to right-size to their lifestyle.”
Anyone want to take a guess on which month we’ll see short/REO sales top 50% of all sales?
Illinois home sales up 14.2% in November [Illinois Association of Realtors, Press Release, December 21, 2011]
Amazing, as prices go lower, more home sell. Now realtors(tm) need to relay this message to their sellers, ASAP. None of this puny 2%/3% price cuts; go for the jugular, with 20, 30 or 40% price cuts. Start bidding wars! THIS is the market coming back!
And the crazy thing about those numbers above is that the price bottom is still a few years away!
These insanely priced northside neighborhoods at $300 psf cannot and will not last. Not when there are acceptable (and probably more suitable and family friendly) alternatives elsewhere in the city or the suburbs.
Architect summed up the GZs conundrum pretty well with his sub-350k turnkey oak park SFH example yesterday.
1) This was the first meaningful increase in sales in a long time
2) As we’ve discussed many times before the median price data only indicates that more people are buying cheap homes, not that prices are coming down
3) Based upon historic patterns January and February should have the highest % of distressed sales – see the graph here: http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2011/12/november-home-sales-finally-show-meaningful-improvement-in-chicago/
4) Contract activity is looking much better so the sales activity should continue to show improvement
2) As we’ve discussed many times before the median price data only indicates that more people are buying cheap homes, not that prices are coming down
One of the more relevant things that can be drawn from this report.
Pu-leeze. Don’t compare the Green Zone to Oak Park. Green Zone people would wither and die in Oak Park. And Oak Park people would probably die a slow death if forced to adapt to the GZ. Both places are great choices, but to compare the is like comparing a Subaru wagon to a Mazda Miata. It’s a totally different product.
Yet years and years of significant median price reductions mean that most homes that seem to sell are cheap.
“Green Zone people would wither and die in Oak Park. And Oak Park people would probably die a slow death if forced to adapt to the GZ”
Great idea for a new reality show: Hood Swap. Every week you take someone from Lincoln Park (or ELP) and make them trade homes with someone outside the GZ for a week.
I think OP and Evanston are substitutes for many of these places. True, neither are the Greenzone, but both have the amenities that most mature adults typically want in combination with the good schools and SF housing options. Antecdoctally, I have noticed many younger buyers skipping these small starter condos in favor of just saving up for the house as right now, the ROI on these small, out dated places don’t warrant buying.
Those that would substitute typically are going to be a couple or more mature younger adults looking to settle down. Yeah, your baseball cap and flip flop single 25 year old at Accenture isn’t going to care for OP, but the married couple who has gotten over the bar scene are finding it to be a decent alternative if they have a longer term outlook.
Many of the folks I meet in OP generally have said they wanted a more urban type suburban community with walkability, public transportation, and good housing options. Unless you are a solid 1%er there aren’t many decent options within the Greenzone unless you are perfectly happy with a 2/2. Most folks outgrow the 2/2 condo pretty quickly hence all the baby cribs in listings.
In my opinion the 2/2 is just glorified apartment living with granite countertops. They’re not meant for 3 or more people crammed into 1200 sq feet with no yard or basement. Roger’s Park and Albany Park are full of 2 bedroom apartments yet look at the demo of the residents there. There is nowhere left to go but down for much of the GZ. Had the greedy developers built more 3/2’s, or duplexes, or townhomes, there might be some redeeming value; but the proliferation of cinderblock 2/2’s or midrise 2/2’s all over GZ doesn’t bode well for its future.
“In my opinion the 2/2 is just glorified apartment living with granite countertops. They’re not meant for 3 or more people crammed into 1200 sq feet with no yard or basement. Roger’s Park and Albany Park are full of 2 bedroom apartments yet look at the demo of the residents there. There is nowhere left to go but down for much of the GZ. Had the greedy developers built more 3/2?s, or duplexes, or townhomes, there might be some redeeming value; but the proliferation of cinderblock 2/2?s or midrise 2/2?s all over GZ doesn’t bode well for its future.”
Dear god, this stupid. Most condo’s are smaller.
dear god, you’re stupid. 2/2’s are usually between 1000 (cramped) and 1200 sq feet. there are of course smaller and larger places but that’s a pretty reasonable assumption. why are you so dumb?
My 2/1 is 990 sq ft. Add an extra bathroom and it’s a 2/2 at 1000 sq feet. those cinderblock 2/2’s are usually 1200 or so sometimes 1400 sq feet depending on how much hall way there is and how much parking is in back.
You’re the stupid one who bought a 900SF 2 Bedroom. My two bedroom was 1250SF. Sold it for a decent profit.
There is still a market for 2/2s. Not everyone is a young couple planning for kids. A 2/2 is perfectly fine for empty nesters or those not planning on having kids. The whole world isn’t young families.
homedelete, stop projecting its pretty sad, just leave and go to Palatine already
Totally off topic here but this debate about the size of condos brings up something I learned the other day while meeting with a Japanese developer that I thought would be interesting to share. They build condos in Tokyo. A 3 bedroom unit ranges in size from 755 sq ft to 1500 sq ft. Could you even imagine a 3 bed condo 755 SF?
Jenny, true, but those folks are a small percentage. There will always be crazy cat ladies, old gay couples, empty nesters, perpetually single folks, etc. However, those groups are not the broader market that buy 2/2 condos.
There will always be a condo market. However, in some ways I do agree with HD that developers over built 2/2s due to the demand for them when in reality, the market really needed larger units for more viable long term living.
My God, when did Jenny become the most sensible person on this site?!
She has embodied the wise, gentle spirit of the giant land tortiose!
Vjalos: I rent. GAWD. I rent a 990 sq foot apartment for $900 bucks a month. GAWD. I’ve manged to save tens of thousands of dollars and pay off lots of student loans (in the bank and under my mattress) because I rented rather than buy.
Sonies: Palatine is for losers. That’s where you live, right? Or was it plainfield. I can’t remember, so many posters on this site.
Gary: Japanese people are of a smaller stature than americans so the reduced square footage doesn’t bother them.
Jenny: GAWD. Actually much of the world IS YOUNG FAMILIES. VERY BIG VERY YOUNG FAMILIES. http://www.globalhealthfacts.org/data/topic/map.aspx?ind=82
“The whole world isn’t young families.”
homedelete, your dream of getting a nice affordable (in your crazy brain) SFH in the GZ is NOT GOING TO HAPPEN… give it up and move away to the outer rim already and enjoy life, you obviously aren’t cut out for this town. Living in a dumpy 2/1 in a crappy neighborhood with a kid really has put you in a bad mood, are you drinking this morning? You are way more fiesty than usual
“Gary: Japanese people are of a smaller stature than americans so the reduced square footage doesn’t bother them.”
I totally saw this one coming. I was waiting for it. 🙂
Office party last night. Drank until 4 am. Slept for two hours in my office; woke up and got back to work.
Seriously, where do you live in Plainfield?
“Sonies (December 21, 2011, 10:25 am)
homedelete, your dream of getting a nice affordable (in your crazy brain) SFH in the GZ is NOT GOING TO HAPPEN… give it up and move away to the outer rim already and enjoy life, you obviously aren’t cut out for this town. Living in a dumpy 2/1 in a crappy neighborhood with a kid really has put you in a bad mood, are you drinking this morning? You are way more fiesty than usual”
There is so much crazy on the board today that it would take the Coast Guard and several GPS systems to bring it back to the general vacinity of normal.
I don’t think i’ve even been ‘through’ plainfield…
“Office party last night. Drank until 4 am. ”
yeah, I thought so, you are usually way more depressing… drink more often!
“I don’t think i’ve even been ‘through’ plainfield… ”
You know where a Plainfield is? Is it anything like a Park Ridge (whatever *that* is)?
If I may make a comment on the lowest price rung of the market, I would like to buy another condo as an investment property, but although prices are low, I haven’t found anything worth considering in months. The inventory is just sad. All you’ve got to do is ask a few questions of the listing agent or managing agent and do a quick search on CCRD to find entire buildings in distress, no money in reserves, major repairs being deferred. I don’t even bother looking at these units in person. I can rule them out without wasting my time or my agent’s.
Take Albany Park for example. There’s a lot on the market there. They look to be bargains on the surface, but I swear that neighborhood has the highest concentration of shoddy conversions in the city. There are so many condos out there with structural and mechanical problems as a result of being poorly gutted and renovated during the bubble. I would take a chance on the area, but blocks and blocks of the buildings themselves have been ruined.
And yet the paradox is that someone is buying this stuff. It always sells. I don’t know what the buyers are thinking. Even if you’re buying one of these condos as an investor and not to live in yourself, I don’t really know what kind of tenant would want to live in it or how long you could keep things going until the whole HOA comes down. These are highly risky propositions.
I submitted some lowball offers in November which went nowhere. Sometimes I’d get a counter offer but they’d only knock 1K off the asking price. Then the units end up selling for close to the asking price.
I saw an attractive loft conversion in Portage Park. But the whole building just had this creepy vibe. It felt deserted. It WAS deserted. The unit I looked at was a short sale, yet there were signs plastered all over the building that there were still developers units available. Then we met the neighbors. They were on Section 8. They said their son and daughter-in-law had also been given a unit in the building. They had the balls to complain that the 2 bathrooms in their unit were “on the small side”. 2 baths! What a luxury. And on Section 8.
There are units in decently stable buildings which sit on the market at bargain prices for months, but this is always because the HOA restricts rentals. So it’s definitely investors who are the buyers out there right now – at least at the lower end of the market. No one’s going to buy the units unless rentals are permitted. It’s too bad because some of these places would make a really nice home at a cheap price, much cheaper than rent, for an owner-occupier.
It’s funny, I was just thinking about my 5 years in Japan. I lived in Shinjiku, a fairly posh area of Tokyo. My 1 LDK (Living, dining, kitchen) was all of 300 Sq ft, did not have parking, came unfurnished (as in no lights, no appliances, no hanging bars in the closets, just a sink, toilet, and tub). Granted it was a rental, but I had to pay 3 months non refundable deposit as well as first months rent, and my favorite, a 3 month rent payment as a thank you for the priviledge of renting the unit to the owner called key money. I got “all” of this for the price of $2750/mo. Plus the $15k I had to pay up front….
Totally off topic here but this debate about the size of condos brings up something I learned the other day while meeting with a Japanese developer that I thought would be interesting to share. They build condos in Tokyo. A 3 bedroom unit ranges in size from 755 sq ft to 1500 sq ft. Could you even imagine a 3 bed condo 755 SF?
It’s now married couples with children that are a small percentage: 20% of all US households, down from 43% in 1950. “In every state the numbers of unmarried couples, childless households and single-person households are growing faster than those comprised of married people with children, finds the 2010 census.” I don’t disagree that small *condos* were overbuilt, since most of those new households will be renting, but smaller housing units — not large single-family houses — are the way of the future.
Russ: “those folks are a small percentage”
“It’s now married couples with children that are a small percentage: 20% of all US households, down from 43% in 1950. “In every state the numbers of unmarried couples, childless households and single-person households are growing faster than those comprised of married people with children, finds the 2010 census.” I don’t disagree that small *condos* were overbuilt, since most of those new households will be renting, but smaller housing units — not large single-family houses — are the way of the future.”
Right, but people is Bangladesh have huge families!
“It’s now married couples with children that are a small percentage:”
But it’s about household formation among current non-owners.
vlajos: reading comprehension my friend. you don’t have it.
Payton, that may be true as a whole, but you have to parse the data as to who is actually in a position to buy a home in Chicago Greenzone. Broader stats like that can be very misleading. I’d posit that overwhelmingly the buyers are not single mom’s with kids, particularly in a high cost of living area like the Chicago. It is mostly above average income singles and childless couples. With the singles, their move up to a larger property is almost always driven by marriage. With couples, children are typically the trigger.
Yes, there is also a market of older divorcees and empty nesters. However, again, that is not the broader market of who is buying condos in the city.
Yes, in some of the lower cost areas, you may see a bunch of single moms buying, but that is in no way the broader housing market in the areas that typically concern this blog.
Payton: The link you provided is commenting specifically on *marriage*, not “households with children” or “households with 3 or more people.” I would expect all three groups would contribute to a demand for places bigger than your standard Chicago 2/2. From the article:
“Americans with a high-school degree or less (who account for 58% of the population) tell researchers they would like to marry, but do not believe they can afford it. Instead, they raise children out of wedlock. Only 6% of children born to college-educated mothers were born outside marriage, according to the National Marriage Project. That compares with 44% of babies born to mothers whose education ended with high school”
I don’t disagree that the trend is toward fewer children, smaller families and less of a need for big homes. But I don’t think it is nearly as pronounced as the change in the marriage rate. Also: as your article mentions, there is a pronounced gap between marriage and procreation rates in the affluent and the poor. Affluent tend to get married more and have fewer children. Poor tend to get married less and have more children. You could probably draw some conclusions about specific Chicago neighborhoods from those trends…
@Milkster, I don’t recall your price range from our discussions but I wonder if you are setting some unicorn criteria for your desired investment property? As you’ve said the stuff available at your price point is crap, so doesn’t it stand to reason that the owners holding onto decent stuff should be able to at least sell it for a higher price than the crap its competing with?
“But it’s about household formation among current non-owners.”
Luckily, I addressed household formation already: “In every state… childless households… are growing faster than those comprised of married people with children.” Since married couples with children are vastly overrepresented among homeowners, that implies that current non-owners are even more likely to be childless households.
Put it this way: senior households (householder over 65 years old) now account for a larger share of American households than married couples with children. Single people account for *one-third* more American households than married couples with children. The share of married couples with children among U.S. households has slid 20% in just 15 years (it was 25% in 1995).
@Tft: The article was the first one I pulled up with 2010 household composition figures, which it does include before talking about marriage; I was looking for something else but found that first. I’m gay, so if I so much as say “marriage,” a right-wing mob somewhere will go apoplectic 🙂
“vlajos: reading comprehension my friend. you don’t have it.”
Huh? You’re the one who posted a link about world population, when we are talking about the US.
Hi Icarus –
Yes, definitely. I would pay a premium for a nice unit in a stable building.
But most of those don’t cash flow positive.
And some are overpriced for the market and the owners won’t come down in price even a little bit, so they sit and sit with no takers.
As far as my unicorn criteria, I’m not picky about the style or era of the building as long as it’s structurally solid and as long as the HOA is active and has decent reserves. I have a great contractor and I’ll take on renovations. I’m flexible on location too as long as the area is reasonably safe and has good el access. I’m not picky about the GZ.
Vlajos:
“jenny (December 21, 2011, 10:06 am)
There is still a market for 2/2s. Not everyone is a young couple planning for kids. A 2/2 is perfectly fine for empty nesters or those not planning on having kids. The whole world isn’t young families.
Rating: +6 (from 8 votes)”
To which I linked that YES, not the whole world, but much of the WORLD is young families. My stupid anon(tfo)-esque attempt at humour obviously went over your head.
next topic plllllueeezzeee.
” I would pay a premium for a nice unit in a stable building…as long as it’s structurally solid and as long as the HOA is active and has decent reserves.”
I’ll sell you my 2/1 for walkaway cost, which would be positive cash flow for you as a rental at todays interest rates & decent DP. No renovations necessary. 😀
“Put it this way: senior households (householder over 65 years old) now account for a larger share of American households than married couples with children.”
And those senior households are seriously considering 2/2 walk-ups in non-“senior” developments north of north avenue?
Really?
“Had the greedy developers built more 3/2?s, or duplexes, or townhomes, there might be some redeeming value; but the proliferation of cinderblock 2/2?s or midrise 2/2?s all over GZ doesn’t bode well for its future.”
Do you think some of this well self correct? As in, if the price of one bedrooms drop far enough, will owners of one beds start buying their neighbor’s properties and tearing down walls? 2 900 sq ft 1/1s could make a pretty decent 3/2.
Fred: Yes. Buyers were doing that in the early 90’s when it was cheap to buy. For one example, I had a former boss who had a 2/2 and after 2 babies were born they bought teh 2/2 next door because it was cheap enough and made a 2700 sq ft place. The assessments would double and the layout was sort of odd (they had to create some weird hallways) but the unit was spectacular. I think people will eventually buy entire cinderblock buildings and make them very large homes. Yes there are reno costs but cheap solves all problems. And that day is most assuredly coming.
“Commodity prices don’t skyrocket if most central banks are simultaneously printing electronic money. At least not domestic ones. And the money printing is just transferred to fluctuations in FX rates for trading imports.”
I was about to say the same thing. Then I decided it would be an intelligent comment, so I chose not to. Now where is Bob so that I can make fun of him for being a dumbass.
ECB just printed another 600B today yet no inflation. That is because banks are frequently interested in getting paid back so it sits on their balance sheet = no inflation. Its a simple concept, velocity of money really is, but many inflation callers cannot grasp it.
Inflation in your third world country is a fact of life however as its part of their business cycle to hyperinflate to devalue their foreign debys.
ECB just printed another 600B today yet no inflation. That is because banks are frequently interested in getting paid back so it sits on their balance sheet = no inflation. Its a simple concept, velocity of money really is, but many inflation callers cannot grasp it.
Inflation in your third world country is a fact of life however as its part of their business cycle to hyperinflate to devalue their foreign debts.
Anf thats why latin american debt is always denominated in USD. Otherwise they would attempt to repay with shiny beads & sticks after they trash their home currency.
“Totally off topic here but this debate about the size of condos brings up something I learned the other day while meeting with a Japanese developer that I thought would be interesting to share. They build condos in Tokyo. A 3 bedroom unit ranges in size from 755 sq ft to 1500 sq ft. Could you even imagine a 3 bed condo 755 SF?”
Have you seen the average size of Americans vs Japanese? Also here people tend to have ton stuff while in Asia and Europe most people have fewer clothes, pots and pans, toys for their kids, and so on. Also the kids often play in the parks and the common space (yards) rather than their apartment.
“Jenny, true, but those folks are a small percentage. There will always be crazy cat ladies, old gay couples, empty nesters, perpetually single folks, etc. However, those groups are not the broader market that buy 2/2 condos.”
Not true Russ. I posted a like to changing demographic. There are also many divorced families where a single/divorced parent lives with one or two kids rather than the traditional 4-5 person household.
“ECB just printed another 600B today yet no inflation. That is because…”
…in a fractional reserve banking system taking on debt creates money and defaulting or paying off debt destroys money.
Europe is losing the battle against deflation. Worrying about inflation at this point is like worrying about estate taxes when you’re homeless.
Declining population typically equates to deflation.
“Have you seen the average size of Americans vs Japanese?”
Good point. You’ll never see a Japanese female buying and eating a bucket of KFC. I think HD is wrong about all the 2/2s because today there is no stigma attached to being single, 39 and alone w/ cats, being homosexual, being a divorcée, etc. So there is demand for 2/2s. The marriage rate is indeed misleading because so many today are unstigmatized with having illegitimate kids, bastards, no fathers, etc. but they are mostly HS educated and won’t be living in the GZ. The suburbs are going to turn into a hell.
Declining population typically equates to deflation.
Deflation of overall GDP, but it could lead to an increase per capita. So what if Japan’s population and GDP falls? It could make life on the islands there easier, and less expensive and it could lead to a higher-standard of living and GDP per capita for those still there.
Why does the USA need to grow to 400 million by 2050? So we can have 4% GDP growth every year? While the GDP per capita goes down? and std of living per person deteriorates?
“The suburbs are going to turn into a hell.”
haha I knew that was coming
Surprised noine yet mentioned the NARs restated sales numbers going back to 2007. Sales figures revised down 16% in 2010 alone iirc..
Curious the NAR said of the revised figures things look like they’re improving LMAO
moving to Red States, debunks Richard Florida
Study: Illinois, NJ tie for most outbound migration
The Associated Press
12:20 PM CST, December 21, 2011
An annual study of interstate moving trends by United Van Lines shows that Illinois and New Jersey tied for the states with the largest outbound migration this year.
Americans continue to migrate toward the South and West and away from parts of the Northeast and Midwest, according to United Van Lines, the nation’s largest moving company.
“Americans continue to migrate toward the South and West and away from parts of the Northeast and Midwest, according to United Van Lines, the nation’s largest moving company.”
wow brilliant, like that hasn’t been happening for the last 50+ years or anything
I know many people who moved from here to AZ and let me tell you they are dying to come back because its becoming like Mexico there and god forbid they have a dry season or two (last 100+ years have been extremely wet in the southwest) so all it will take is one drought for people to want to leave that hell hole in droves
I don’t understand the draw of Arizona or Florida.
“Vjalos: I rent. GAWD. I rent a 990 sq foot apartment for $900 bucks a month. GAWD. I’ve manged to save tens of thousands of dollars and pay off lots of student loans (in the bank and under my mattress) because I rented rather than buy.”
HD – if you incurred tens of thousands of student loan debt (presumably a decent chunk of which came from Juan Marshall Law School), are you really fit to hand out investment advice over the interwebs?
Haha I didn’t go to john marshall, ans since when has savinf money and repaying debt been bad investment advice? Hahaha
“are you really fit to hand out investment advice over the interwebs?”
Yeah! Leave that to the stoners.
“moving to Red States, debunks Richard Florida”
Richard Florida never says anything about “states”. He talks mainly about metropolitan areas. For instance, Chicago’s prospects are really on the upswing mainly because of our growing “creative” industries such as tech, design etc. Groupon and all the other coupon sites (there are dozens actually headquartered in Chicago now because it’s considered where all the knowledgable “talent” is in that part of the internet) are bringing fuel to the fire. So if people are leaving Peoria or Champaign to move to Florida- that wouldn’t be surprising in the least.
Chicagoland’s outmigration is the highest (worst) regional rate in Illinois and Chicagoland has the biggest proportion of the state population, so it’s pretty clear that Chicagoland is driving the Illinois movement to the Sunbelt.
I don’t know if the Census outmigration data can be parsed by city vs. suburb, but I would be reasonably confident that city residents comprise many of those folks moving out-of-state. Chicago (city) is losing more than 20,000 residents at an annualized rate. The GZ is a different world from the rest of the city, which is really struggling, and remains Rustbelt to the core.
‘…so it’s pretty clear that Chicagoland is driving the Illinois movement to the Sunbelt.’
And what caliber of people are/were moving to these greener pastures? I remember conversations with my parents during the kaboom years when unprovoked, they’d regale me in on yet another 2nd cousin/shirttail relative who was leaving the ‘harshness’ of the midwest to open up a boat detailing business in FL, a tanning salon/financial investment service in Phoenix (who knew… and I’m not making that up), a personal training gym in CA, or one that was going to flip houses in Vegas. I never once heard a story about the one who chucked a good job with benefits here in Chicago, to become a life coach in LA. Certainly there are job transfers/losses and natural migrations to all parts of the country, but it seems to me that the ones searching for the parrot head lifestyle via some harebrained idea or pure wanderlust, are the same ones who today find themselves as nothing more than yet another statistic… albeit in a warmer climate. Sabrina is correct in that the ‘knowledgable talent is here (in Chicago)’, or maybe it’s just that it never left. Thinning of the heard Chicago style, and god help the sunbelt states.
jay: it’s primarily younger folk after college or after a few years into the work force that move to greener pastures. I can rattle off at least a dozen people I know who moved in the last 5 or 6 years to the sunbelt or back to their home state. I met a guy the other day in court and he told me that he and his wife were seriously contemplating a move to FL. and they both had good jobs here but its jsut that the cost of living in chicago is high and it’s so competitive for jobs.
I had a cousin from milwaukee, moved to chicago after graduating her big ten school and couldn’t find a teaching job in Chicago or suburbs for the life of her. After a year and a half of odd jobs she randomly filled out an application for a teaching position in las vegas and 2 months later she was living there, and now 4 years later, she has no plans of ever returning to the midwest.
“but it seems to me that the ones searching for the parrot head lifestyle via some harebrained idea or pure wanderlust, are the same ones who today find themselves as nothing more than yet another statistic”
…parrot head.. i like it!
‘After a year and a half of odd jobs she randomly filled out an application for a teaching position in las vegas and 2 months later she was living there, and now 4 years later, she has no plans of ever returning to the midwest.’
Oh, no question people move to the sunbelt for a teaching job, but the same can be said for any existing/waiting-for-you job in any state; I’m sure there are teaching jobs in Scranton too. But to think for a moment that there’s going to be some mass exodus of brain power from IL to Phoenix because it’s well, sunny there, is pure fantasy. What the kinds of people who blindly leave the north for the sunbelt bring with them are the same sets of problems they had with them here. What they don’t bring are the natural resources (water, soil), infrastructure, transportation hubs, educational and cultural institutions, on and on. There’s a reason why I set up shop in CA in a few days for the winter (I rent btw)… the weather here sucks, but sunny states don’t alone create empires…. regardless of their growing populations of boat detailers.
jay: problems? what are you talking about? chicago is oversatured and highly competitive and it’s not for everybody. Every moron and goof knows this.
“jay: problems? what are you talking about? chicago is oversatured and highly competitive and it’s not for everybody. Every moron and goof knows this.”
So where’re you taking the February bar exam, HD?
FL.
“FL.”
Ah, taking your talents to South Beach. Fine choice.
December Chicago sfh/condo/th sales and median
1997 1,410 $125,650
1998 1,791 $142,000
1999 2,085 $165,000
2000 1,797 $175,000
2001 1,713 $200,000
2002 2,251 $215,000
2003 2,699 $240,000
2004 3,719 $267,000
2005 2,847 $283,000
2006 2,241 $279,000
2007 1,629 $287,000
2008 1,263 $235,000
2009 1,820 $208,000 (34% short/REO sales)
2010 1,475 $166,000 (43% short/REO sales)
2011 1,516 $156,000 (44% short/REO sales)
December Chicago condo/th sales and median
2009 1,024 $279,700
2010 827 $222,000
2011 841 $182,500
Lake View December condo/th sales
1988 61
1989 40
1990 40
1991 63
1992 89
1993 89
1994 56
1995 80
1996 87
1997 105
1998 144
1999 111
2000 116
2001 101
2002 164
2003 139
2004 177
2005 179
2006 123
2007 121
2008 80
2009 68 (4% short/REO sales)
2010 61 (20% short/REO sales)
2011 81 (28% short/REO sales)
Lincoln Park December condo/th sales
1988 64
1989 40
1990 36
1991 62
1992 78
1993 94
1994 67
1995 64
1996 62
1997 92
1998 91
1999 83
2000 61
2001 69
2002 86
2003 110
2004 105
2005 142
2006 97
2007 71
2008 36
2009 50 (6% short/REO sales)
2010 49 (12% short/REO sales)
2011 40 (20% short/REO sales)
Near North December condo/th sales
1997 135
1998 129
1999 378
2000 168
2001 106
2002 280
2003 468
2004 417
2005 478
2006 209
2007 198
2008 135
2009 258 (10% short/REO sales)
2010 166 (19% short/REO sales)
2011 159 (21% short/REO sales)
Loop December condo/th sales
2006 133
2007 66
2008 91
2009 70 (13% short/REO sales)
2010 63 (19% short/REO sales)
2011 56 (21% short/REO sales)
Near South December condo/th sales
2005 42
2006 93
2007 98
2008 39
2009 45 (9% short/REO sales)
2010 34 (44% short/REO sales)
2011 27 (52% short/REO sales)
South Beach? Haha hahah I’m going to the redneck riveria.
HD is moving to FL?
I’m coming up with only 1463 home sales in Chicago for December – a bit lower than G.
Thanks for the update, as always, G.
The key, for me, is the distressed sales. They continue to be abnormally high, even in prime green zone areas. Lakeview is really starting to collapse now. A couple of years ago it was just a short sale here or there and now they’re all over the place.
“A couple of years ago it was just a short sale here or there and now they’re all over the place.”
If you’re a young mid-20 something who thinks you’re really savvy and bought in 2007 you can get drunk a lot in Lakeview for a few years and still pretend the earth is their oyster and everything will snap back/turn around.
Now its 2012 and they’re early 30-somethings still stick. Yeah guys can start a family at any time, ladies can’t. So now they can’t wait for the kiddos to come along and thats when its jingle time to send the keys back to the bank, say “OOPS!” and not tell anyone in the new suburb you live in what a financial idiot you were.
HA!
This was the property everyone was talking about in Lincoln park/old town. It sold for 201,000 ABOVE list price in LESS THAN TWO WEEKS for CASH!!!
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1838-N-Lincoln-Park-W-60614/home/13344925
AWESOME marketing!!
Clio, that is old news….next…
“Clio, that is old news….next…”
sorry – I didn’t realize it was old news since it just closed two days ago!!
“AWESOME marketing!!”
Yes- we’ve already been talking about this property for several days. Of course it sold for cash. Do you think someone with conventional financing could have bought it in less than 2 weeks? Um…no.
Anyway- why is this “awesome marketing” when many people here thought it would sell for even MORE than what they got?
We’ll never know if it would have.
But I’m glad to see some sellers are being realistic. They took over a $400k loss on this property but at least they were able to sell quickly- unlike many other sellers we see day after day on Crib Chatter who price it too high out of the gate and are still being chattered about 3 years later here.
“If you’re a young mid-20 something who thinks you’re really savvy and bought in 2007 you can get drunk a lot in Lakeview for a few years and still pretend the earth is their oyster and everything will snap back/turn around.”
Bob- it’s not even those who bought in 2007 anymore. There are people trying to sell now who bought in 2009. And yes, they’ve now gotten married/had kids and have decided that condo living is not the right fit for their family. They honestly didn’t think that prices would still be going down 3 years after they bought. But they are. Now what?
The extent of the condo collapse isn’t really appreciated yet. Lakeview is only just starting to feel it now. This summer is going to be huge with short sales there.
Sabrina,
read your posts – you are so intent on putting a negative spin on anything that has to do with real estate that it has seriously compromised any objectivity you may have had.
“sorry – I didn’t realize it was old news since it just closed two days ago!!”
Joe Zekas posted the closing price on Friday, when it closed, in the Willow thread.
“you are so intent on putting a negative spin on anything that has to do with real estate that it has seriously compromised any objectivity you may have had.”
Yeah- my “negativity” comes from looking at hundreds of listing every week and seeing “short sale” after most of them, seeing listings that we chattered about 3 or sometimes 4 years ago STILL on the market, and new listings coming on the market that are so overpriced they are laughable (does anyone honestly think their 2/2 will sell for MORE than what they bought it for in 2008?)
I’m glad contracts picked up in the last two weeks of the year. Maybe some of the stale listings will finally sell. I’m looking forward to the spring market but I have low expectations. Too many homeowners are underwater now. They know they can’t sell without taking a serious loss. So we could still see low inventories.
“you are so intent on putting a negative spin”
Chicagoland had a case shiller index streak of 49 and 54 months of year/year price declines for condos and single family homes, respectively. You’re just not good enough to understand numbers to see the trend, or rather hate the trend and think you constant cheerleading and rosy outlook will somehow have an effect on reality and sentiment and turn it around.
Its actually comical. Clio it’s 2012 and not as many monkeys can get as much credit as in 2007. Monkeys CAN still get credit, however. I see in MLS verbiage all the time property can be bought with little down. Go buy that condo with 5k down! Problem is new supply of monkeys wanting to buy is less than monkeys trying to unload. It causes a bunch of chipanzee inter-hominid conflicts to be sure.
http://images.nationalgeographic.com/wpf/media-live/photos/000/007/cache/young-chimp_763_600x450.jpg
Clio–are you a real estate chimpanzee?
Oh there will be low inventories. Estate sales and short sales will be your two choices. Everyone still waits for foreclosurees to materialize. Now the dept of tresasury wants to rent foreclosures.
“Now the dept of tresasury wants to rent foreclosures.”
Hahaha and you thought it was easy squatting on your deadbeat landlord. Can you imagine if your landlord was Uncle Sam? Can you imagine the govt trying to evict people who even got to the point of lawyering up?
Then you can sue uncle sam on technicalities related to eviction/property condition and not only live for free but also get paid punitive damages!
Party on Wayne! 😀
clio: I will also be here to remind you when it hits 60 months on both indices. I will also be here to remind you when it hits 72 months. I will be here to remind you that when you do an MLS search for Lakeview these days there are distressed properties all over the place. The banks have been lying for years sitting on them like papa emperor pengiuns in an Antarctic winter. All that did was delay the inevitable and make it worse. Its here now for ever more places around the city.
“Then you can sue uncle sam on technicalities related to eviction/property condition and not only live for free but also get paid punitive damages”
What’s your legal theory for that? los federales are soooo stoopid that they allow all sorts of tort claims against itself? Please.
“What’s your legal theory for that? ”
Theory, to god-damned hell with theory! Bob don’t need no theory. He don’t have to show you any stinking theory, you god-damned cabrón, and chinga tu madre!
btw.. you are up early..
re: CSI and Bob’s idiotic obsession with it
Bob, bob, bob – don’t you realized that the CSI doesn’t mean a god damn thing to most people. Seriously, the number is being dragged down by distressed sales in non-GZ areas – you are such a god damn idiot that you still can’t see that!!! Have you really (I mean, REALLY) seen a great decline in prices in places you like in the GZ? Yeah, I didn’t think so…….
“What’s your legal theory for that? los federales are soooo stoopid that they allow all sorts of tort claims against itself? Please.”
Yes. Imagine a jury comprised of people that are sympathetic to the little guy or dislike the government.
“Have you really (I mean, REALLY) seen a great decline in prices in places you like in the GZ? Yeah, I didn’t think so…….”
I have. Right around where I live actually, as of late.
Yeah, and that’s why you are still renting……you talk the talk, but can’t (and never will) walk the walk…
“Yeah, and that’s why you are still renting……you talk the talk, but can’t (and never will) walk the walk…”
Because I can read a trend and am not stepping on front of this freight train. Walk the plank is more like it.
(does anyone honestly think their 2/2 will sell for MORE than what they bought it for in 2008?)
Unfortunately those who are new to the market — not involved on a day to day basis, following the market or stalking this website — go through a learning curve when they decide to sell. They think I paid X and it’s 2,3,4 years later, it must be worth Y. Or I changed out the light fixtures, it must be worth more.
“Have you really (I mean, REALLY) seen a great decline in prices in places you like in the GZ? Yeah, I didn’t think so…….”
Well- the 3/2 duplex down that was $650,000 in Lakeview is now selling for $450,000. That’s a pretty big price reduction. The 2/2s that were $450,000 are now $325,000. The 1/1s that were $300,000 are now $185,000.
I know someone who just sold in Lakeview for a $30,000 loss after buying in 2001. About 10 years of home ownership. And I consider what he got for the place to be pretty good (i.e. it could have been a much bigger loss than $30,000.)
1838 North LPW sure had a “great declines in prices.” It sold for 20% less than its price in 2001 — 10 years ago and 5-6 years before the peak of the boom. I still think that price is an anomaly, but it’s an extreme decline …
t “the King can do no wrong” – Rex non potest peccare. Tort immunity for the government.
When you look for 2/2s under $200,000 there are very few listings in the green zone … and there is a blanket of such listings south and west of the green zone. There is a blanket of 2/2s under $150,000 in those areas too. I understand that prices have come down a lot … on many distressed units in the green zone you can buy for less than you can rent … but with that much supply out there to the west I think there is going to be a lot of downward pressure in the green zone, current non-distressed sales prices are probably heading down. If you get a good price now you’ll probably be ok .. but paying full price for a place now is going to leave you underwater for a few years at a minimum.
“I’m coming up with only 1463 home sales in Chicago for December – a bit lower than G.”
You must have counted them too soon after the 31st. Your peers are sometimes late to record the closing, especially at year end. It continues: the December number is up to 1,538 as of today.
“t “the King can do no wrong” – Rex non potest peccare. Tort immunity for the government.”
But a jury can nullify that, right? Find the government liable, and there’s no way a (note: *federal*) judge would overturn that judgment, as contrary to law, right? No way the DOJ could get that dismissed 8.2 seconds after it was filed, long before a jury even sniffed the case, is there?
“You must have counted them too soon after the 31st. Your peers are sometimes late to record the closing, especially at year end. It continues: the December number is up to 1,538 as of today.”
No. I ran that yesterday – after you ran your numbers. Even right now it’s coming up with 1463. I get my data from Agent Metrics. Maybe they lost some data. Or maybe you included additional property types?
““What’s your legal theory for that? los federales are soooo stoopid that they allow all sorts of tort claims against itself? Please.””
Bob.. at 6:24 you responded to the above… then at 6:32 you said…”Because I can read a trend and am not stepping on front of this freight train.”
So how did you just not see this coming….How did you not see HD and Anon about to piss on you? nice long pisses also.. think they even crossed streams a few times in drunken laughter… I can see all the crushed Hamms cans lying around that they drank before lettin loose on ‘ol Bobbo..
Not completely off topic to the “Rex non potest peccare” (i looked that up). Ze watched “The Lives of Others” last night. Highly recommend it.
“Hamms cans lying around”
Those were Bob’s.
Ditto.
“Ze watched “The Lives of Others” last night. Highly recommend it.”
“Those were Bob’s.”
That’s right Bob.. Anon gave you a nice stream of steak,asparagus, and 15 yr old scotch…. ahh…, that asparagus part is just not going to wash off so easily…
Now. I think Sonies should stop being so refined, and start back up with a review of Hamm’s”
Hi guys –
Do you know where to look up a building’s zoning, please?
Thank you.
You must have counted them too soon after the 31st. Your peers are sometimes late to record the closing, especially at year end. It continues: the December number is up to 1,538 as of today (Tues.)
“No. I ran that yesterday – after you ran your numbers. Even right now it’s coming up with 1463. I get my data from Agent Metrics. Maybe they lost some data. Or maybe you included additional property types?”
As always, I can only report the actual mls data. I have no explanation for your source’s discrepancy, but do believe it is incorrect. I do know the total was very near your number last week. I see 1,544 as of today. A quick scan of the records confirms only Chicago AT/DE with Dec 2011 closed dates are counted.
https://gisapps.cityofchicago.org/zoning/
Thank you!!
City of Chicago condo/th/sfh closed totals
year/4th quarter/2nd half/annual
1997 4,504 9,766 18,055
1998 5,306 11,520 21,313
1999 5,806 12,383 23,182
2000 5,646 12,078 23,776
2001 5,549 12,829 24,120
2002 6,654 14,640 28,052
2003 7,905 17,425 31,431
2004 9,062 19,032 35,611
2005 8,306 19,235 37,351
2006 7,103 16,470 33,512
2007 5,495 13,504 28,442
2008 3,920 10,017 21,014
2009 5,793 11,788 19,885
2010 3,885 8,494 19,635
2011 4,219 9,205 17,871