Market Conditions: November Sales Fall 8.5% from 2017’s 10-Year High
The Illinois Association of Realtors is out with November home sales.
As we’ve discussed on Crib Chatter the last few months, sales have slowed from 2017’s strong pace.
The city of Chicago saw year-over-year home sales decrease 8.5 percent with 1,793 sales in November, compared to 1,959 a year ago. The median price of a home in the city of Chicago in November was $262,000 up 2.3 percent compared to November 2017 when it was $256,000.
Here is the November sales data for the last 9 years (thanks to G for some of the data):
- November 2007: 1859 sales and median price of $290,000
- November 2008: 1093 sales and median price of $222,500 (16% short/REO sales)
- November 2009: 1905 sales and median price of $215,000 (29% short/REO sales)
- November 2010: 1144 sales and median price of $182,500 (39% short/REO sales)
- November 2011: 1429 sales and median price of $157,000 (43% short/REO sales)
- November 2012: 1750 sales and median price of $180,000
- November 2013: 1844 sales and median price of $200,000
- November 2014: 1638 sales and median price of $230,000
- November 2015: 1661 sales and median price of $233,500
- November 2016: 1937 sales and median price of $260,000
- November 2017: 1959 sales and median price of $256,000
- November 2018: 1793 sales and median price of $262,000
A year ago, November’s sales were the second best in 10 years but the numbers are always revised later and now 2017 is going down as the strongest November in a decade.
“The seasonality of the market is clearly at play,” said Tommy Choi, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and broker at Keller Williams Chicago – Lincoln Park. “Prices are fairly stable, market time is on par from last year and while inventory is still slightly down compared to last year, it’s evening out, as well. This bodes well for both buyers and sellers heading into the holiday season.”
“Prices continue to grow modestly, but the forecast for the next three months suggests a slowing trend,” said Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the University of Illinois. “Consumer sentiment indicators suggest concerns about the short-term outlook with volatility in the stock market and rising interest rates dampening expectations.”
Statewide inventory dropped to 54 days from 58 days in November 2017.
Total statewide inventory fell 2.4% to 53,929 from 55,276 last year.
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was similar to October’s rate at 4.9%, up from 4.83% in October but considerably higher than the 3.9% average in 2017.
“The headwinds that homebuyers have confronted all year are no less evident as we prepare to close out 2018,” said Ed Neaves, Illinois REALTORS® president-elect and managing broker of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Snyder Real Estate in Bloomington. “Median prices continue to post strong growth, but the increases are occurring against a backdrop of continued inventory contraction.”
Are the slowing sales due to rising mortgage rates, the rocky stock market or simply really low inventory?
Or all of the above?
Illinois home prices climb higher in November; sales shift lower [Illinois Association of Realtors Press Release, December 19, 2018]
If demand was weak market times would be a lot longer. They are still pretty decent, though condo market times are increasing (as is inventory) and detached market times are decreasing. It’s an inventory thing.
December could be really soft because November contract activity looked way off.
I’ve been seeing a lot of press about other markets being down quite a bit (Vegas, Florida, CA, NYC, Denver, Seattle, etc) particularly the higher end.
Can’t put my finger on it, but definitely something in the air that doesn’t feel right imho.
Same units we looked at in heat of summer remain for sale, Streeterville and River North, two bedrm two bath units. Seems market has significantly softened for this unit type.
Trump finally gets a goy in to run the Fed, but the guy is acting too kosher and will kill the market. Is this being done solely as a Deep State attack on Trump for 2020? Probably so.
see this chart: https://infographic.statista.com/normal/chartoftheday_7227_federal_reserve_moves_up_base_rate_025_percent_n.jpg
The Fed is a joke! They engineered a huge bubble in 2001-02 with extreme rate drops, then ensured a crash in 2007 with extreme rate hikes. So, then back down in extreme fashion and they leave rates at ZERO for the entire Obama presidency to ensure the puppet’s success. They are going to rate hike straight up under Trump to undercut him. Clear as day pattern coming.
It’s the extreme slopes of these graphs that should alarm all Americans. It’s all a game, artificial, and the market should be setting rates, not the Fed/Swamp/Deep State apparatchiks. Greenspan even showed up on TV for the first time in years (CNN jews propaganda network) to talk about the rate hikes. He used his ridiculous “Fedspeak” which is just gibberish that tries to sound intellectual. Occam’s Razor. Trumphaters are raising rates to stifle the markets because of their rage against Trump. You normal Americans don’t even matter in this equation.
I’m confused. How do you “act Kosher” or “too Kosher” for that matter?
helmet i suggest you take off your tinfoil helmet and get off of 4chan for a little while
and go have yourself a very
merry Christmas
“Trump finally gets a goy in to run the Fed, but the guy is acting too kosher and will kill the market. Is this being done solely as a Deep State attack on Trump for 2020? Probably so.”
————————
Oy.
Helmet’s post sponsored by Reynolds Heavy-Duty Aluminum Foil
Interest rates in the United States averaged 5.69 percent from 1971 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 20 percent in March of 1980. That chart showing a maximum interest rate of 7 present is inaccurate. Janet Yellen’s increases from near zero to almost 2 present, and a little more by Powell, is hardly an attempt to stifle the markets . We are far from a historically normal interest rate.
What exactly does someone’s religion have to do with being able to run the Fed?
This type of ethnic stereotyping shouldn’t be allowed on CC.
Rather than ban the guy my preference is to let him speak his mind and then have everyone pile on to prove what an idiot he is. Otherwise he retreats to his echo chamber where everyone agrees with him.
“Greenspan even showed up on TV for the first time in years”
Greenspan is on television, specifically CNBC, several times a year. And has been doing so for many years. His wife is Andrea Mitchell. He’s no stranger to NBC and its affiliates.
I find it hilarious that the man that Trump himself appointed is now suddenly part of the “deep state.” Karmas a bitch, isn’t it?
Lol.
The FOMC was always going to raise rates. Didn’t matter who was in the White House.
By the way, the “deep state” won’t have to do anything against Trump heading into 2020. He’s already took care of that himself. Gates and Flynn have already told all. This presidency is already over.
“The Fed is a joke! They engineered a huge bubble in 2001-02 with extreme rate drops”
Two days after 9/11 I closed on a house. I paid 7% for my 30-year fixed. What “huge bubble” did they engineer in 2001-2002 again?
The Fed cut rates after the terrorist attacks to calm the global stock market.
You need to re-visit your history.
“I’ve been seeing a lot of press about other markets being down quite a bit (Vegas, Florida, CA, NYC, Denver, Seattle, etc) particularly the higher end.”
The “higher end” in most of those cities is $2 million+. Did anyone think it could sustain forever with mortgage rates rising? Even the upper middle class mostly take on mortgages. And most of them are stretched to the max even somewhere like Seattle or Denver.
“So, then back down in extreme fashion and they leave rates at ZERO for the entire Obama presidency to ensure the puppet’s success.”
Also, this is a lie that keeps getting repeated as the truth.
The Fed raised rates twice during Obama’s presidency. He was also dealing with double digit unemployment, not 3.7%. And a little thing called the Eurozone Crisis. Oh, and Standard & Poor’s downgrading US debt from AAA to AA.
Why aren’t Trump supporters leaping for joy at how hot the economy is thanks to the corporate rate cuts? We’ve gotten our 3% growth. Why the bitching?
Actually, the Republicans were complaining during Obama’s term that the Fed was keeping rates low in an effort to make Obama look good, and that was unfair, and the Fed should raise rates immediately. Now that the Fed is raising rates, the Republicans want to whine that it is an effort to make Trump look bad.
BTW, corporate tax cuts didn’t do much to raise the growth rate. That money mostly went into stock buy backs and special dividends. Since the top 1 % get most of the dividends, that money was reinvested in the markets, not put into consumer spending. Trump goosed the Dow Jones, period. The lower unemployment rate was thanks to Obama’s policies.