Market Conditions: Number of Vacant Properties Doubled in Chicagoland Area in Last 10 Years
Last week, the Daily Herald published statistics on the towns with the most and the fewest number of vacant housing units in the Chicagoland area.
The data was compiled from the U.S. Census.
According to the Census a “housing unit” could be: “a house, an apartment, a mobile home or trailer, a group of rooms, or a single room occupied as a separate living quarters.”
In comparison, Chicago’s vacancy rate was 12.5, while the state had 8.7, the census data showed.
Just because it’s an empty property, that doesn’t mean it is in foreclosure.
While there are many reasons a house could be vacant — such as the death of an owner, a job transfer to another city, or empty nesters who’ve downsized — foreclosure remains the No. 1 cause for the dramatic increase in vacancies, experts said.
Vacancy Rates by County:
- Cook: 9.8
- DuPage: 5.3
- Lake: 7.1
In Cook County, there were 4% more housing units in 2010 versus 2000 but the vacancy rate shot up 75% to 214,003 units.
Some towns of interest:
- Lake Forest: vacancy rate at 9.1. Number of units up 6.3% compared to 2000. 681 vacant out of 7,444 units, up 116.9%.
- Oak Brook: vacancy rate at 7.8. Number of units down 2.1% compared to 2000. 249 vacant out of 3188 unit, up 85.8%.
You can click on the tables to see the data by county. For some reason, the article doesn’t break out the Cook County data by town.
Which suburbs have the most and fewest vacant homes [The Daily Herald, Anna Marie Kukec, February 18, 2011]
no…no….no….- not Oak Brook vs Lake Forest again!!! Aughhhhhh
This is such BS – you would have to be an idiot to believe any of this? How do they determine these vacancies again? Oh yeah – the US census Bureau. – what a frickin’ joke. I didn’t fill out my form – does that mean my house is vacant also? All this shows is how many people in these towns filled out their census forms (and, no, nobody ever came knocking on my door). I can guarantee you that the “vacancy rate” in oak brook is NOWHERE near 7.8%. Stupidity fueled by our money and supported by morons…. I tell you- this is getting too ridiculous.
If you’d just filled out your form, like any good American would, then you wouldn’t be ranting. Complaining about the validity of data that you had some ability to help make more valid is typical clio.
Doug – there are reasons that many people don’t fill out their forms. This brainwashing and propaganda about being a “good American” and filling out your census form is BS – it is just another way of government interfering with your personal life. They want to get to know EVERYTHING about you – I DID look at the form and they ask VERY personal questions. I don’t trust the government enough to answer these questions (ie how much money you make, what are the names of everyone living in your house, etc.) – who knows how they are going to manipulate that data to extract more money or such out of you. Yes, it DOES sound a bit paranoid – but, believe me, the government is not as innocent as you think. This is coming from experiences and talking with many people. Most of my neighbors are extremely PRIVATE and I would be surprised if any of them filled out the form.
Or maybe they all think they’re SO SPECIAL that of all the millions of people living in the US, the government would take the time to look at THEM, because they are SO SPECIAL?
puhleeze. You’re not compelled to fill answer any questions on the form you don’t want to answer. This “fear of the census” is a new thing, and I think it’s laughable. You yourself have given out more info about yourself on the fully public INTERNETS than you would have ever had to disclose on a census form. If your privacy is what you’re trying to protect, you’re not doing a very good job, clio.
I’m just sayin…
I don’t know if these numbers say much – Mettawa may have a higher % of vacant homes but there aren’t many properties in Mettawa and the vast majority are larger, more expensive homes. Green Oaks has more homes and a wider price range.
I don’t understand why anyone would want to hide their income or the names of the people living there unless they were doing something illegal. If you’re filing your taxes honestly then they already know.
We didn’t get census forms or anyone at the door. Actually nobody in our 22 unit townhome community did. Must be because we’re in an unincorporated area I guess.
logansquarean – that was precisely my point – I had no idea how easy it was to find out things about people on the internet. The only thing I ever did was tell people about my farm – from that, MANY people found out who I was, where I lived and what I did – after that, it was pointless to hide anymore. My farm is owned by my LLC – so I didn’t even think that it could be easily traced back to me. It was a lesson to me to keep my information as private as possible.
“I don’t understand why anyone would want to hide their income or the names of the people living there unless they were doing something illegal.”
Oh God – please don’t tell me you are serious…..
The irony behind most of these vacant homes is that most owners are waiting for the market to improve before placing them on to the market. When the market finally improves, these properties will flood the market and drive down prices. It’s a vicious circle.
Evidently a UofC education doesn’t make you smart enough to spot the crazy conspiracy theories that most uneducated folk fall for. This census stuff is extremely important to how we get represented in our government and you’re just flushing it down the drain because you don’t want the government to know where you live and how many people live there.
But, I digress, let’s move onto another conspiracy theory. 9/11, crop circles, Jimmy Hoffa, JFK, your choice clio.
Clio, less is more.
The other stupid idea behind the census is that it assumes that the census will undercount Chicago moreso than other cities.
Unless you can give me a compelling reason why the difference between Chicago and other cities is statistically significant, there really is no argument whatsoever.
Please raise your hand if you pitch in with neighbors to take turns mowing a lawn of a vacant home on your block.
*[groove raise hand}
Groove Funny story;
a neighbor a few blocks over uses the next doors boarded up home’s backyard for a garden. His wife gave us some HUGE cucumbers and wonderful tomatoes last summer.
Keep in mind that the apartment vacancy rate Is typically above 8 in Chicago and has mostly been above 10 the past ten years. It’s still a big jump in “for sale”* vacancies, but it would never, ever be zero in Chicago, in any event.
*including shadow.
“, crop circles”
Those are a conspiracy. It’s just that the conspiracy is among humans, not aliens.
I am guessing, but I would guess that you could easily demonstrate that due to demographics, the homeless population and the nature of the housing stock, large cities tend to underrespond in a statistically significant manner. (That said, the Census _may_ correct for this, but I don’t think that it does.) hd, I’m not sure why your yardstick is whether Chicago underreports compared to other large cities as opposed to the US in general – care to explain? (Even if that’s the question, I would expect that percentage of underreporting is loosely correlated with population, and that you could demonstrate that Chicago would underreport compared to everywhere but SF, LA and NYC – certainly more than Houston, for example.)
It’s hard to tell how relevant vacancies are to the housing market without looking a little bit deeper into the data (and I’m not sure that deeper data is available). I am sure that almost all housing in Mumbai is occupied. If houses are truly abandoned, they they’re not generally likely to be worth more than the land they’re on, and plenty of housing goes vacant as people transition (move, die, do repairs, etc.). Vacancy without greater context seems more correlated with certain trends about personal activity than it does about the value of housing.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USHVAC
Here’s a graph from the st. louis fed showing the home vacancy rate. Look at that big ole’ spike in 2005. Do you think that is demographics or the effects of the housing bubble?
Let me add a little context for you JJJ. 9% unemployment. Half the people in the country have negative net worth. A third of homeowners have homes that aren’t worth the mortgage. Record inventories of housing stock.
“That said, the Census _may_ correct for this, but I don’t think that it does”
Of course they do, in some fashion; it’s not like they just give up on being accurate. The question is whether the adjustment is accurate enough for the false precision of the census.
hd, you’re confusing the two things that I commented on – I was talking about demographics in response to your questions about “why would Chicago have different Census response rates from other places?”. I don’t think that demographics necessarily affect the vacancy rate – I think that there are a variety of factors that go into that (a big one someone else mentioned is mix of housing stock). However, I do think that it’s interesting that your chart shows the highest rate of vacancy decrease in the history of the data.
ltcaffey, I’m not sure those factors suggest that the current high vacancy rates are indicative of upcoming additional declines in housing values, which seems to be the premise in support of which Sabrina is putting this data forward. They’re just as likely to explain the current high vacancy rates – lower incomes, lower employment, lower net worth mean that people live with family, move in together, etc. I think that vacancy rates will be closer to historical norms once we’ve recovered from this recession.
Also, it seems to me that there has been an increase in housing units in the Chicago area since 2000. The data says that the rate has doubled, not that the number has doubled.
jjj, you are discounting the ages old theory of supply and demand? High supply of housing (lots of vacant housing) and low demand (unemployment, demographics)….prices must surely follow.
Demographics most assuredly affect the vacancy rate. If I’m 35 and I have one children where as my parents had four by the time they were forty … and if 200,000 people live the city, and the areas that are growing are usually educated higher income single (or DINK) … of course demographics matter. The Gen Y is barely old enough to own and the millennial are still too young.
As far as the undercounting goes, I was just comparing major cities as in houston growing big time v. Chicago losing big time. trying to keep apples to apples.
Wow my last post was rife with typos this monday morning. i’m through typing here for a while
majorly paranoid since the long form wasn’t used this census;
—
“”ant to get to know EVERYTHING about you – I DID look at the form and they ask VERY personal questions. I don’t trust the government enough to answer these questions (ie how much money you make, what are the names of everyone living in your house, etc.) – who knows how they are going to manipulate that data to extract more money or such out of you. Yes, it DOES sound a bit paranoid – but, believe me, the governmen””
—
I find that the census workers didn’t try all that hard; there were some hard to get a hold of renters don’t ever think they got an accurate count. so would a 2-3 flat count as 2-3 housing units. That could have inflated chi’s numbers a bit.
“I DID look at the form and they ask VERY personal questions. I don’t trust the government enough to answer these questions (ie how much money you make”
Obviously you can’t read then.
The form did not have personal questions thus time around – no questions on income.
“A third of homeowners have homes that aren’t worth the mortgage.”
In Illinois, nearly 30% with mortgages are underwater now with another 4% to 5% within 5% of being underwater (which, if prices continue to decline at the pace they are will be by early spring.)
Many people will be making decisions about strategic defaults in Illinois.
“Please raise your hand if you pitch in with neighbors to take turns mowing a lawn of a vacant home on your block.
*[groove raise hand}”
Groove, it’s interesting you bring this up because some suburban cities who were paying to mow the lawns of all the foreclosed houses so that jungles don’t grow there are running out of money fast and evaluating whether or not they can continue to do so.
Below 2000 price on a Lincoln Park rowhouse?
1.4 million in 07 (1.33 mil in 05)
now listed for $979
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/836-W-Belden-Ave-60614/home/13353936
“Groove, it’s interesting you bring this up because some suburban cities who were paying to mow the lawns of all the foreclosed houses so that jungles don’t grow there are running out of money fast and evaluating whether or not they can continue to do so.”
We also threw rat poison and moth balls down around the property last spring. I paid for that out my own pocket, the lady next door to the house and her husband are elderly i would hate if the had to battle vermin.
mowing the lawn in a city prop (25×125) is easy, i cant imagine on a huge suburban property. if those burbs stop mowing the neighbors hopefully will pitch in. it shouldnt be a problem, you would hope.
““I don’t understand why anyone would want to hide their income or the names of the people living there unless they were doing something illegal.””
This is a true story. I used to work for a non-profit that conducted an economic survey of the lower classes in the United States every year. They had been doing it since the 1960s (it was originally funded through Johnson’s war on poverty programs.)
The purpose of the survey was to determine if the poor could rise up out of poverty, i.e. if Americans really could change classes. As the original survey pool got older, they began to include the children and now the grandchildren. So it’s a great source of information for researchers to see if someone poor one generation could have middle class children the next.
Anyway (this was pre-internet)- they would send out surveyers into the neighborhoods around the country much like the census workers. Only the form was around 40 pages long and asked all the serious economic issues like, “what is your income?” and “do you own your own home?”
There was a question called, “is there any other income you’d like to mention?” and you would not believe the responses people told the surveyers. They had no trouble telling them that they made $20,000 last year from dealing drugs or selling food stamps illegally on the side. You name it, they would talk about it.
Of course, the surveyers were NOT from the government. And some years they used the same person to ask the questions year after year so those people got used to the surveyers. But they had no trouble talking about their illegal activities. Unfortunately, many people tended to stay poor generation after generation. We would occasionally see someone that had busted out to upper middle class but it was pretty rare.
“I don’t know if these numbers say much – Mettawa may have a higher % of vacant homes but there aren’t many properties in Mettawa and the vast majority are larger, more expensive homes. Green Oaks has more homes and a wider price range.”
It’s not about the number of homes in a town. It’s the rate out of 100 that are vacant. So in Chicago it is 12.5 out of 100 are vacant. In Bartlett it is 3 out of 100.
hd, first, I want to say that my wife was reading over my shoulder the other day, and said “You must really dislike that dude.” It reminded me that I have enjoyed our vigorous debate, but that I should take care to point out that I always mean it in a friendly way even when I am direct with my own views or dismissive of the views of others. I have particularly enjoyed our discussions since I started participating at CC.
It’s tough to keep these issues separate – of course I agree that demographics have a significant effect on long-term housing prices and trends, including the vacancy rate. I raised demographics, however, in the discussion of census reporting. Since I raised it in that context, I wasn’t sure why you were asking about demographics re: long-term housing trends.
With respect to supply and demand (and demographics), I do think that it remains extremely relevant to the housing market. I’d love to have the time to look at evolving housing choices made by different people in different demographics and whether one could model an effect on housing prices from changes in these choices. My personal belief is that housing prices and markets will continue to be localized. For better or for worse, the choices and preferences of young, large families of recent immigrants will not be as relevant to the housing markets preferred by well-educated urban professionals (who are increasingly themselves the children of those formerly young, large families of recent immigrants). My belief is that recent conditions (decreasing real wages, higher unemployment, higher local tax burden) have artificially depressed the demand for housing, especially with respect to condos and “starter” homes, which lower demand, with a variety of other (major) factors, has had effects in the higher end of the market.
I also believe that the current demand for housing is artificially low – this is not Italy, and adults don’t want to live with their parents, and this is not New York, where adults making good or even great (by non-NYC standards) money can’t afford to buy large condos or small houses to live in and don’t even begin to try to plan or expect to do so. I also believe that changes in lending standards have created barriers to entry, shifting the demand curve because of increased borrowing costs or requirements which price people out of the market. As lending standards relax, people get sick of living in lower-quality housing than they historically did and (I think, most importantly) the personal savings rate increases (which it has significantly in the last two years), I think that we’ll see normalization of demand and a corresponding normalization of prices. I also think that the local building boom of the last 10 – 20 years is going to slow and decrepit housing stock which was never built or maintained to last will cause supply to fall.
“This “fear of the census” is a new thing, and I think it’s laughable.”
I find it sad. The census is a great form of information and provides a lot of details aobut our history as Americans (good and bad). You can search the census records going way back on those geneology websites and it’s great to see the original records from the 1800s etc.
“As lending standards relax, people get sick of living in lower-quality housing than they historically did and (I think, most importantly) the personal savings rate increases (which it has significantly in the last two years), I think that we’ll see normalization of demand and a corresponding normalization of prices.”
People WILL be moving, that’s for sure. But it seems like you’re assuming future buyers are all renting right now. What about the people already in the property who want to move up? When does that become normalized again? Right now- too many of them are underwater to move up. It could be a long, long time for all of them (and their short sales/foreclosures) to wash through the system. Many people are still waiting for prices to “come back.”
I also think a wild card are interest rates. They have nowhere to go but up- and could do so quite dramatically.
Clio: seriously? You really graduated from the U of C?
You realize you don’t need to answer all of the questions on the census form, right? And you know that funding levels, representation at the federal and state level, etc. are all based on census numbers, right? And that the constitution dictates that congress carries out a census, right? And you realize that if the USPS has ever delivered mail to your house, the gubment already has your name/address, right? And you realize that, through the magic of this black art called statistics, the census folks try to correct for forms that don’t get filled out and undercounting in general, right?
Sure, it ain’t perfect, but it isn’t some government plot to put a chip in your brain, either. I think you’ve been taking a little too much of what Michele “crazy eyes” Bachmann says at face value. Too much crazy to combat…
jjj,
no offense taken, it’s all just friendly cribchatter banter. I agree with your theories and I find no dispute with your last post. Well articulated and makes sense. Except for the personal savings rate issue which is a weird figure that IIRC includes repayment of debt, savings and writeoffs due to defaults.
Demand is artificially depressed. I myself said for years I would like to buy but I’m not going to overpay or pay what I want and live somewhere less than I desire. I don’t have unrealistic expectations either. I want a modest home in a nice area with a decent elementary school. That shouldn’t cost me an arm and a leg nor should I be required to get a jumbo ARM to do so. Others might think that’s acceptable but it’s not for me.
clio, you have touted as fact before that Oak Brook annexed condos and apts in order to increase the population to get more govt cheese. Now, it seems you are claiming that OB residents don’t want to be counted. You’re arguments are riddled with inconsistencies, ad hominems and moving the goal posts.
Your, not you’re. Sorry.
“Except for the personal savings rate issue which is a weird figure that IIRC includes repayment of debt, savings and writeoffs due to defaults.”
I will have to check into that. I think that I can consider it somewhat legitimate that it includes repayment of debt (although in my mind maybe it should be discounted compared to actual money in the bank), but for it to include writeoffs seems stupid to me. Writeoffs might not be that material, though.
jjj,
I can’t find the definition of ‘debt repayment’ in which repayment includes ‘default’ because it has the same effect on the borrower’s finances as being repaid (in the short term at least). I’m not an economist by trade, but, quite a few people broke down the numbers and surmised that the savings rate was more a reflect of people defaulting on debts rather than actually repaying them or plain vanilla savings. Here’s a link to the cleveland fed that says:
“The personal savings rate reached a record low of just 0.8 percent in April 2005 before the downturn and marched up dramatically in the ensuing months. However, it has steadily eased off recent highs exceeding 6 percent since last June and currently sits at 5.3 percent, roughly back to 1998 savings rates. While people often associate the word “savings” with money in the bank, the increase in savings rate also means that people are paying down their debts.”
http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2011/0211/01houcon.cfm
For years, I would marvel at how many of the larger condo developments in West Town and BT/WP would not have any lights on in the units during the evening. I was convinced that developers would try to make them look less vacant by putting bicycles and grills on the balconies. But when a condo is never illuminated, night after night for months, then you know something is amiss.
It will cost. It costs dearly in places like Brazil and the USA is basically becoming Brazil-North.
In 1970, the public schools were okay and the main public universities were very accessible. Now, after just 40 years of heavy immigration, IL’s society is much more stratified. Everybody seemingly wants to get out of CPS but get a spot at U of I.
As you may have noticed, life is different today. Americans tend to marry later, have fewer children, and live more stressed out lives because they need both parents to work to afford a house in a “good” school district (a “good” school district is the kind with “smart children”).
Costs are being driven up in the remaining good school districts. It’s not going to get better, and like Brazil, we’ll soon need to work even harder because private schools might be the only option left to a responsible parent!
“I want a modest home in a nice area with a decent elementary school. That shouldn’t cost me an arm and a leg nor should I be required to get a jumbo ARM to do so.”
I agree with Dan. Often, the “good school district” is what is driving up values significantly. And with both parents having to work to afford in these areas, it is becoming much harder to live on one income unless you have significant family money, or are in a job that pays $200,000 and up. If you aren’t in one of these jobs, often you will be left by the side of the road and passed up.
Is everyone else aware that the tax relief given to owners who walk away from their mortgages is going away in 2012? (this was on first mortgages only.) Could we see a lot of people deciding to walk away ahead of the deadline so they don’t have to pay taxes on the difference?
“Tax consequences may also loom, though that’s down the road. Starting in 2007, the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act opened a window — it closes in 2012 — during which the IRS can no longer tax as income mortgage debt (up to $2 million, on a personal residence) that’s been forgiven.”
http://money.msn.com/home-loans/article.aspx?post=e48af968-d939-40dc-8077-a7dd32f1ef62
I think it is relevant when there are almost 10 times the number of homes in Green Oaks (1,133) as there are in Mettawa (133), especially when the median value of a Green Oaks home is $600k while it’s $1.3m in Mettawa. Of course there are more vacant homes in the $1m+ price range than there are in a village where homes go for half the price.
Of course I happen to live in Lake Bluff which borders both villages so it’s close to home for me!
“I agree with Dan. Often, the “good school district” is what is driving up values significantly. And with both parents having to work to afford in these areas, it is becoming much harder to live on one income unless you have significant family money, or are in a job that pays $200,000 and up. If you aren’t in one of these jobs, often you will be left by the side of the road and passed up.”
yeah ummm, i dont know, but i could get a 3br SFH in a “good school district” for under 400k in the city. and i wouldnt need 200k a year to do it.
BTW i found a short sale 3br SFH in a top CPS school district for 174k.
i think a family with a 50k a year salary could cover that. hmmmmm
But groove does that family have a $35,000 down payment? (or they could use their tax refund FHA style)
And most importantly, where’s the link?
its MLS#: 07551709
i have no clue if my fictional family has a DP that large.
but lets say “family X” as i call them personally has 5% down and the rest will go to furnish and fix the place. and the wife makes 65k and the husband is a stay at home dad with 2 kids.
you dont think that is a good idea for them?
“Below 2000 price on a Lincoln Park rowhouse?
1.4 million in 07 (1.33 mil in 05)
now listed for $979”
979 seems okay. the last two sales were def too high, tho.
its MLS#: 07551709
i have no clue if my fictional family has a DP that large.
but lets say “family X” as i call them personally has 5% down and the rest will go to furnish and fix the place. and the wife makes 65k and the husband is a stay at home dad with 2 kids.
you dont think that is a good idea for them?”
also HD check out
MLS#: 07475994
MLS#: 07722976
MLS#: 07546725
07551709 not bad if you have to live in the city. Doesn’t do much for me over there though. You have a good elementary school over that way and Oriole Park is a nice park.
07475994 is right on Harlem. Not a good location. I’d be scared to death one of my kids would run out onto Harlem and get killed. Too expensive as well.
07722976 bad location, right on Nagle. see above
07546725 same option basically as 07551709