Market Conditions: September Home Sales Fall 0.9% Versus Red Hot 2020
The Illinois Association of Realtors is out with the September sales data.
Sales declined year-over-year in Chicago, the Chicagoland area and in the state.
However, last year was the hottest September in the last 14 years.
In the city of Chicago, home sales (single-family and condominiums) in September 2021 totaled 2,611 homes sold, down 0.9 percent from September 2020 sales of 2,635 homes.
The median price of a home in Chicago in September 2021 was $320,000, down 0.7 percent compared to September 2020 when it was $322,350.
September sales for the last 15 years:
- 2007: 2172 sales
- 2008: 1816 sales
- 2009: 1918 sales
- 2010: 1403 sales
- 2011: 1498 sales
- 2012: 1845 sales
- 2013: 2395 sales
- 2014: 2242 sales
- 2015: 2414 sales
- 2016: 2398 sales
- 2017: 2355 sales
- 2018: 2040 sales
- 2019: 2006 sales
- 2020: 2635 sales
- 2021: 2611 sales
Median prices for the last 15 years:
- 2007: $267,750
- 2008: $268,600
- 2009: $225,000
- 2010: $180,000
- 2011: $190,000
- 2012: $188,900
- 2013: $230,000
- 2014: $249,000
- 2015: $250,000
- 2016: $260,000
- 2017: $275,000
- 2018: $285,000
- 2019: $292,250
- 2020: $322,350
- 2021: $320,000
But as Gary Lucido often states in the comments on this blog, the IAR will adjust the sales number next year.
For instance, last year’s September sales, the hottest in 14 years, were 2570 in the press release. But the IAR has gotten in the “final” numbers and now it’s 2635 sales.
Seems likely that September 2021 will be adjusted higher than 2020’s numbers when they get the “final” numbers.
Therefore, it’s likely this year was the hottest September in 15 years in Chicago.
Chicago’s sales were driven, again, by the hot condo market where sales were up 7.7% to 1645 sales. Single family home sales fell 12.7% to 966.
Statewide sales were down 6.7% and in the 9-country Chicagoland area, they fell 7.8%.
Statewide inventory declined 27.8% to 31,049 from 43,025. Homes sold in an average of 25 days, down from 45 days last year.
In Chicago, inventory fell 22.1% to 8,821 from 11,327 properties. Homes sold in an average of 32 days, down from 34 days in 2020.
“While fewer when compared to last year, the homes that were on the market last month were snapped up quickly,” says Ezekiel “Zeke” Morris, President of Illinois REALTORS® and designated managing broker of EXIT Strategy Realty/EMA Management on the South Side of Chicago. “Sellers throughout the state continue to benefit from multiple offer situations. It will remain a seller’s market until median prices level out more.”
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 2.9%, up from 2.84% in August. It was also just slightly higher than a year ago, when it was 2.89%.
“Again, this month the market exhibits positive growth in prices with a decline in the number of sales,” said Dr. Daniel McMillen, head of the Stuart Handler Department of Real Estate at the University of Illinois at Chicago College of Business Administration. “While high prices are beginning to deter buyers and surveys suggest that people are not currently optimistic about the economy, consumers continue to feel that it is a good time to sell a home. Prices are expected to continue to increase through the rest of the year while the number of sales is expected to decrease.”
Are high prices and lack of inventory going to cool the market?
Or will rising mortgage rates be the catalyst that puts a damper on the party?
Speed of Illinois home sales, inventory and median price trends continue in September [Illinois Association of Realtors, Press Release, by Bill Kozar, October 21, 2021]
Once again, Chicago real estate is vastly underperforming the national average of major cities when it comes to increasing home prices. Illinois unemployment rate at 2% higher than the national average isn’t helping nor is the unfathomable property tax situation. You are literally better off buying a home just about anywhere else in the United States. If you’re young, go to Austin, Nashville, Seattle, Denver, Vegas, Florida, etc to start your career if you want your largest financial asset to be worth anything.
Are you mixing and matching initial reported numbers and adjusted in the sales totals?
As your want to do, AVERAGE price is decreasing, I wouldnt call that HAWT ™
Mike who cares about concepts like money? A house is for LIVING. Who cares if the value decreases (Unpossible as RE only goes up)? Its not like a young person could save money and invest it in their 401k and have the possibility of having $1MM at 50. And no young person wants to go to those cities, they was the Bright lights, corrupt government of Chicago. The ones that leave couldnt hack it in this T1 city /s
Wonder if this will get deleted?
It appears that our local bubble has entered the first stage of bursting.
First, prices plateau ($322,350 last year to $320,000 this year). This is where we are now. Next, we are headed into a steep drop in sales which is starting to happen (down 6.7% in IL and 7.8% in the Chicago region). After that, prices will decline slowly, and then quickly. Finally, when the end is nigh, supply balloons as investors and overleveraged homeowners head for the exits, causing prices to crash.
The bigger story here is that other markets around the country are also showing signs of trouble too with the same patterns I just described above. The canary in the coal mine is that three days ago Zillow abruptly paused its home flipping business. They blame labor shortages and supply chain bottlenecks. But in reality, we know the C-suite had a meeting last week with the latest data showing the bubble has started to burst, and they are frantically trying to unwind before they all lose their jobs. There’s anecdotal evidence that they are selling homes at a loss just to get out of home flipping as quickly as possible before the coming bloodbath.
https://www.zillow.com/homes/3122-w-molly,-Phoenix,-AZ_rb/55113708_zpid/
“They blame labor shortages and supply chain bottlenecks. But in reality, we know the C-suite had a meeting last week with the latest data showing the bubble has started to burst, and they are frantically trying to unwind before they all lose their jobs.”
So you go a step further than Bob, and assert that we all *know* that they were lying?
I’d guess part of the problem is (was?) the comp structure for the guys out there identifying homes to buy. and/or the algorithm they are (were?) using.
Chicago definitely sucks when it comes to home appreciation. Working on a transaction now in Austin. Borrower bought for $550k 5 years ago… house now under contract for $900k in less than a week. In Chicago, you’d be lucky to get your down payment plus a few points for inflation back out after 5 years.
I don’t believe this bubble is like the 2007/2008 era as the mortgage underwriting is substantially better. At an individual level, there is no where near the fraud and speculation that was taking place back then with unqualified borrowers and specuvestors trying to flip condos. However, what is different now is the institutional investors like Blackstone buying up all the properties which has to invariably inflate local markets. If they start to dump properties en masse it has to reverberate through the market.
“and assert that we all *know* that they were lying?”
I am a known liar and I know one when I see one. There is a zero percentage chance they’d ever say publicly “market is tanking fast and we’re screwed!” In fact they said they expect prices to increase 13.6% this year. This is also a lie, they are rapidly liquidating their holdings apparently some at a loss. Zillow competes with a handful of other direct home sellers (opendoor, offerpad, redfin) and they’ve been on a buying frenzy the past few years. The party is over now that Zillow blinked first.
https://www.zillow.com/research/home-values-sales-forecast-sept-2021-30222/
“Chicago definitely sucks when it comes to home appreciation. ”
Sucks for a home seller, great for a home buyer. It makes no sense that Austin and other local markets are up 75-100% over the last few years. The underwriting may be cleaner but 1. this makes it difficult for future buyers to enter the market with insane prices; and 2. during the pandemic nearly 2.3% of all mortgages went into forbearance, mostly in working class areas, but that will reverberate throughout the market, 3. the sheer number of investors in the market now everywhere is breathtaking.
I’m glad we have stability in the market here compared to other cities. Maybe it’s high property taxes combined with lots of multi-family options. My goal is to buy a place that won’t lose value and is maybe worth 10% more than I paid after living there 10 or so years.
The ridiculous new property value reassessments are making me question whether moving is a good idea. Maybe I’ll end up staying put. I’m seeing reassessed values up 40%+ above last year’s values. My new assessed value is up 22% over last year. My place seems like a bargain after seeing some of these reassessed values. This assessor is a madman.
There’s never been a better time to buy. Suzanne researched this.
There is definitely a bubble nationwide, I am just not sure what is going to pop it. A lot of stuff is definitely over priced imho. Money is still cheap and borrowers are qualified. People are moving to other cities and supply is limited, so prices reflect that new reality.
It is good for Chicago to be such a value, but at the same time, owning here could be a significant delay in wealth attainment for many people.
” the institutional investors like Blackstone buying up all the properties”
Everyone says “Blackstone”.
Blackstone’s current SFR play is thru (Chicago-based) Home Partners of America, which is primarily a rent-to-own player. Rent to own anything is, of course, not typically something that one who has ‘traditional’ credit available to them does, but it has its place (sharia compliance being one of them).
So that’s a rather different strategy from the iBuyers and even different from the more ‘traditional’ SFR players.
“I am a known liar and I know one when I see one. ”
It’s like a bad riddle.
“It makes no sense that Austin and other local markets are up 75-100% over the last few years.”
Yup. That sort of nonsense is bad for everyone except (i) someone leaving town, (ii) speculators, and (iii) developers.
“Yup. That sort of nonsense is bad for everyone except (i) someone leaving town, (ii) speculators, and (iii) developers.”
Why not?
If a $50,000 property sold for $100,000 because the housing market has gotten hotter, what’s wrong with that? It means money is coming into the neighborhood and there’s some investment.
Some of these neighborhoods haven’t seen much appreciation in the last 13 years.
“There is definitely a bubble nationwide”
There is?
Price cuts already happening in the hottest markets as inventory rises and affordability issues arise. Rising mortgage rates will cool it further. But unless you have more inventory, how are you going to “pop” it?
You have the largest generation in US history buying homes and the second largest generation selling and moving to the Sunshine States. Lots of buying, and demand. Builders can build more but it will take years to “catch” up.
“I’m seeing reassessed values up 40%+ above last year’s values.”
This has happened in some properties/neighborhoods.
“during the pandemic nearly 2.3% of all mortgages went into forbearance, mostly in working class areas, but that will reverberate throughout the market”
Yawn, not this again.
Forbearance is about to go under a million nationwide. It keeps declining, literally, every week.
Bears are completely WRONG on this.
“the sheer number of investors in the market now everywhere is breathtaking.”
This is also incorrect. About the same as pre-pandemic. About 25-30%.
And flippers are doing a service. Ever see those dumps in California that haven’t been updated in 60 years? Yikes. Flippers will buy those in cash and then invest in them. Better for the house and neighborhood.
The question will be what all the new flippers do when the mortgage rates rise next year. I’m assuming a lot in California could get burned. Won’t impact me here in Chicago though.
In Chicago, some flipping going on in condos, actually. Lots of the older Gold Coast and downtown condos getting bought for peanuts from dead or retiring owners, getting fixed up for a Millennial buyer, and resold.
This is also good for the market. But there’s still a lot for sale in the upper bracket in the city. Flippers should focus on the under $1 million price point, if they can. Harder to get those properties cheap though.
“However, what is different now is the institutional investors like Blackstone buying up all the properties which has to invariably inflate local markets. If they start to dump properties en masse it has to reverberate through the market.”
This is a myth and propaganda. Blackstone has the firepower to own for decades and it wouldn’t matter. Why would they “dump”? Housing prices are sticky. It will take YEARS for any house declines even when it does cool off.
In the meantime, demand from the largest generation in US history is still going to be there. Unless you have a severe recession, they all have jobs. We’re at 4.8% unemployment rate and falling.
Not going to be any bust- again- for YEARS. If ever.
Zillow literally has 3,000 homes. Nationwide. It’s a drop in the bucket. It’s meaningless. Major cities are WAY too big to feel that. Ever.
“They blame labor shortages and supply chain bottlenecks. But in reality, we know the C-suite had a meeting last week with the latest data showing the bubble has started to burst, and they are frantically trying to unwind before they all lose their jobs.”
All the homebuilders have slowed sales specifically for the reason Zillow gave.
And think about what a disadvantage they are in?
Homebuilders have their own crews in every development. They have somewhat reliable labor. Zillow does not. It literally is NEW to all of this. They decide to flip houses in Chicago. Well, they have to find good contractors first. In this environment, not always so easy (as they have found out.) You need the infrastructure in place. And now they’re trying to flip in multiple cities at the same time without materials being in stock, even paint is low, no windows, can’t find labor and the labor you find you have to pay through the roof to hire.
Heck, even for a professional like those dudes on HGTV who have done it for 15 years in California and Indianapolis, these are a LOT of things.
This is why the backlogs for the home builders is enormous. They cannot get the homes completed. And they don’t want any more sales. They’ve stopped sales in some communities.
But I digress. Bob is out there flipping houses right now so he knows that Zillow sees a housing bust (you need inventory for that Bob).
Lol.
“First, prices plateau ($322,350 last year to $320,000 this year).”
Whut???
This is the median home price homedelete. It is meaningless.
For the bust to be happening, you need slower sales. Look at the sales numbers for the bust years. We’re at 15 year highs. But that will slow too because it’s going to be hard to keep last year’s pace going. October, November and December should be lower than last year, just based on seasonality and that inventory is now 22% lower than last year too.
When rates rise to 3.5%, or even 4%, next year, then you’ll see the slowing like 2017-2018 when rates did the same thing.
But that’s not a BUST.
To have a bust, you need inventory. Thousands and thousands of units. Where are those going to come from homedelete?
No market around the country is in “trouble.” That is hogwash.
There is slowing in the red hot markets like Boise. Thank god. Going from $250,000 to $500,000 in 18 months isn’t healthy or normal. Glad to see that there may be fewer offers and some price cuts there.
“Once again, Chicago real estate is vastly underperforming the national average of major cities when it comes to increasing home prices.”
And?
Chicago and the suburbs are about to set a new record this year in sales over $4 million.
Tribune Tower sold half of its units during a pandemic and looting on the Mag Mile. Lol.
Chicago is building several billion dollar developments around the city and continues to attract corporate headquarters. And it also set a record for new VC money (still well under SF and NY but it’s moving in the right direction.)
Other than NY, Chicago is the best city in the country to be for finance. And we have a really large tech job market now. Although employers are now complaining they have to pay more in tech in Chicago as the job market tightens here.
Uber just moved into its space in the Old Post Office. It has 1500 workers here and intends to hire 500 more.
Yes, please go to Nashville, Florida or Vegas for your corporate career young people. Lol.
“Are you mixing and matching initial reported numbers and adjusted in the sales totals?”
I report the number that the IAR reports.
When they report the numbers the NEXT year, they are updated with the final numbers so, yes, I update the chart for the previous year.
Last year, September was at 570 initially (reported on the blog) but when the final numbers actually came in, it was 625.
This year’s 611 will be revised higher as well and will be higher in the blog post next year. Gary has talked about this nearly every month this year as he uses the “final” numbers on his chart. I agree with Gary that I don’t understand why the IAR doesn’t do the same. But they don’t, so we’re stuck with hit the way it is.
That’s why September really WAS the highest in 15 years and not down 0.9% as the IAR is saying.
“So that’s a rather different strategy from the iBuyers and even different from the more ‘traditional’ SFR players.”
iBuyers are flipping it. The property will be back on the marketplace at some point.
“If a $50,000 property sold for $100,000 because the housing market has gotten hotter, what’s wrong with that? It means money is coming into the neighborhood and there’s some investment.”
Nothing wrong with it if it’s only happening in a few, formerly blighted areas. When it happens across an entire metro-area, it only benefits the very few as anon pointed out. Sellers have no where to move unless they can leave that city. Buyers struggle to buy and then have less money to spend in the neighbor as a larger chunk of their income goes to paying the mortgage.
“Why would they “dump”?”
BREIT exited SFR once before. By the IPO of Invitation Homes.
Now they got back in. By spending $6b to buy Home Partners of America; owner of ~17,000 SFR–so, ~$350k per key–about the same as a B+-grade apartment complex–and they can finance them similarly, too.
Both have been rental plays. Why would they dump some properties? Regulatory issues, sure. Rental market collapse, of course. If their financing is borrowing-base driven, rather than cashflow, that could be a problem, too (ie, technical loan default). The most likely exit is another IPO (perhaps linked to apartments, too), or selling to another fund.
“There is slowing in the red hot markets like Boise. Thank god. Going from $250,000 to $500,000 in 18 months isn’t healthy or normal.”
…
Why not?
If a $50,000 property sold for $100,000 because the housing market has gotten hotter, what’s wrong with that? It means money is coming into the neighborhood and there’s some investment.
Oh….wait, that was your line.
Housing overbuilt:
www. cnbc.com/amp/2021/10/12/-tight-housing-market-is-already-overbuilt-one-analyst-says.html
“ “If a $50,000 property sold for $100,000 because the housing market has gotten hotter, what’s wrong with that? It means money is coming into the neighborhood and there’s some investment.”
Nothing wrong with it if it’s only happening in a few, formerly blighted areas. When it happens across an entire metro-area, it only benefits the very few as anon pointed out. Sellers have no where to move unless they can leave that city. Buyers struggle to buy and then have less money to spend in the neighbor as a larger chunk of their income goes to paying the mortgage.”
Good to know who the racists are…
“Why not?”
Because the average salary isn’t high enough to sustain $250,000 to $500,000. But in Austin neighborhood, the average salary IS able to sustain $50,000 to $100,000. There is no affordability problem in Austin. But there is in Boise.
Some of the stories coming out of there are brutal.
“Why would they dump some properties? Regulatory issues, sure. Rental market collapse, of course.”
So they’re not going to “dump”.
NONE of these things are happening. Nor will they.
Heck, last year actually WAS a “rental market collapse.” Literally.
Did they “dump”?
Give me a break.
“Sellers have no where to move unless they can leave that city.”
This is not happening in Chicago. Or Chicagoland. You can literally buy a house in the suburbs for as low as $50,000. Probably even $25,000 in some areas.
If they’re in a city completely priced out like San Francisco, they simply wouldn’t buy. They would be renters. This happens all the time on the coasts. Plenty of buyers are priced out there.
In the 1970s, when mortgage rates rose, buyers shifted down to the next cheaper property. Can’t afford the 4-bedroom? They bought the 3-bedroom. Can’t afford Glencoe, look at Northbrook.
Will the same thing happen in 2022? We’ll see.
A crash or reset is not coming. Periods of lackluster appreciation that falls under inflation? Yes, but that’s par for the course in Illinois.
IL had 2 good years thanks to the fed bailout and equity rally. Once the fed bailout money dries up and equity returns stabilize we’ll be back to the same old tax hikes, credit rating downgrades and kicking the can further down the road.
It’s the same situation for many high tax states which is why dems are fighting so hard for the SALT deduction cap to be axed. They know the best and brightest that aren’t constrained by career/family will relocate when provoked hard enough.
If the 50 states were individual equities, I would still be long Texas, Florida, Washington and Tennessee and I would be short New Jersey, New York and Illinois.
Not predicting demise or crash, just dull underperformance.
“They know the best and brightest that aren’t constrained by career/family will relocate when provoked hard enough.”
Hasn’t this already happened AnonIDGAF?
If you haven’t moved by now, then you likely aren’t, right?
Lots of families consider things like good schools and the states you list, just don’t have them.
But this doom scenerio you describe literally is NOT happening in Chicago. Most who “fled” Chicago during the pandemic moved to the suburbs or Indiana/Wisconsin.
You can wish for this all you want AnonIDGAF. You can “say” it’s happening and that Chicago, and Illinois, is doomed. But there have been 26,000 new apartments built in downtown Chicago over the last 10 years and they are looking to build another 17,000 in the next 5 to 7 years.
There are several new billion dollar developments that have started construction including The big projects along the river on the South Side and Lincoln Yards.
The construction continues unabated in Fulton Market with hotels, 40 story apartment buildings and commercial/retail space.
The Moody Bible site will also be developed over the next 10 years adding thousands more apartments and condos.
In the suburbs, Arlington Park race course will be developed and new apartment buildings and live/shop concepts continue to get built including new high rises in cities like Oak Brook and Oak Park.
What you are talking about just doesn’t add up.
I’m not saying home price appreciation will do anything more than the “usual” 1% to 3% rate that it’s always done in Chicago. Why should it?
Chicago and the suburbs remain overwhelmingly affordable. Hooray.
And, as always with housing, it’s all local. Each city, neighborhood, or even street or building, has it’s own dynamic. No one has been crying in their coffee if they’ve owned in the West Loop over the last 10 years, for instance, but River North/Mag Mile/Streeterville haven’t fared too well.
No one knows how much climate change will impact people’s choices. It already is influencing home purchases. Take a trip out to California and ask home owners there how they feel about the drought and the fires.
New York State is one of the best situated states, especially upper state New York, for climate change. Perhaps we will all be moving to Syracuse?
Also, the inventory is now 50% less than before the pandemic, throughout the entire state.
Unless demand slows, the low inventory will pressure prices going forward. And demand will slow if we get 4% mortgage rates.
“But in Austin neighborhood”
We were talking about Austin TEXAS. jeebus.
This was the starting point:
“Working on a transaction now in Austin. Borrower bought for $550k 5 years ago… house now under contract for $900k in less than a week.”
Does that describe anything in Austin, Chicago? No.
“Lots of families consider things like good schools and the states you list, just don’t have them.”
More of your typical BS. For some reason you believe its a fair comparison to look at the best selective enrolment schools in chicago as proxy for all the cities schools and compare that to the worst schools in a competing area. You were shown to be completely wrong before and nothings changed
“You can wish for this all you want AnonIDGAF. You can “say” it’s happening and that Chicago, and Illinois, is doomed. But there have been 26,000 new apartments built in downtown Chicago over the last 10 years and they are looking to build another 17,000 in the next 5 to 7 years.”
Why does anyone that points out actual/potential issues with Chicago is actively rooting for the city to fail?
I think there were big numbers of condos on line prior to 2007, no?
“There are several new billion dollar developments that have started construction including The big projects along the river on the South Side and Lincoln Yards.”
Potential Billion dollar developments. Does the city have any completion requirements in the developer agreements?
“The Moody Bible site will also be developed over the next 10 years adding thousands more apartments and condos.”
10 years is a couple of lifetimes for a developer
“I’m not saying home price appreciation will do anything more than the “usual” 1% to 3% rate that it’s always done in Chicago. Why should it?”
You incessantly bleating about the HAWT Market ™, lack of inventory, reduced time on market, etc. If these are true, you should see higher levels of appreciation
“More of your typical BS. For some reason you believe its a fair comparison to look at the best selective enrolment schools in chicago as proxy for all the cities schools and compare that to the worst schools in a competing area. You were shown to be completely wrong before and nothings changed”
Nope. I’ll take Wheaton Central, OPRF, LT, Libertyville, Naperville North, Hinsdale South, Evanston High School over ALL of the public high schools in Florida, Texas and Tennessee.
Schools make such a big difference. If you want your kid to get into Harvard, you don’t move them to Florida. Sorry.
“The Moody Bible site will also be developed over the next 10 years adding thousands more apartments and condos.
10 years is a couple of lifetimes for a developer”
Yeah- it takes a decade to build out these large developments. It’s been 16 years in Lakeshore East and they are STILL launching new buildings.
The Moody’s developers are old pros. They are converting some of the older factory buildings on the campus so those will probably be done pretty quickly. But they’ll be building several big towers so it will take a number of years to get it all completed.
It takes, what, 3 years to build one of the huge towers?
They’ve been building out that high rise campus just north of the Moody’s site near Old Town for at least 6 years now. But they’re just finishing the third, and final, tower.
Here’s what the units look like.
https://www.oldtownpark.com/
“You incessantly bleating about the HAWT Market ™, lack of inventory, reduced time on market, etc. If these are true, you should see higher levels of appreciation”
You have to get the inventory down. Still bidding wars in some suburbs and city neighborhoods because there simply isn’t anything on the market. Other neighborhoods have too much listed still.
The spring market will tell the tale. But as those rates rise, some will make different choices. Could lead to more inventory on the market.
Price appreciation is all about the inventory.
“I think there were big numbers of condos on line prior to 2007, no?”
Those were condos and they were bought by investors to flip. No one was actually living in any of them. It was one big ponzi scheme where investors then sold their flips to other investors and in 2008, the “next” investors ran out.
Conversely, Chicago is back to 95% occupancy on luxury downtown apartments. They keep building more but the inventory IS getting absorbed. Many thought they were overbuilding years ago, but that never turned out to be the case as PSF soared to new highs for Class A buildings pre-pandemic.
Did I ever think they’d lease out most of NEMA at those outrageous rents?
No. But they’re doing it.
Looks like Helmet Jahn’s final building will be all apartments on South Michigan Avenue now. New proposal is over 700 units.
“Potential Billion dollar developments. Does the city have any completion requirements in the developer agreements?”
Construction has already begun on several of the billion dollar developments. Related is building the 78 on the south side. They are one of the country’s largest developers. I don’t think anyone is concerned about them not getting it built over the next 15 years.
The 43 story building that just broke ground in Fulton Market will cost about $250 million. It just takes 4 of these taller high rises to get to a billion dollars these days.
Chicago has to have one of the highest “crane” counts in the country, right?
But we’ve never met a high rise we didn’t like. In other cities there would be protests about a 70 story high rise going in. But not in Chicago. There are parties, updates on blogs, the plans are shared etc.
This Fulton Market tower is a beauty. I know the neighborhood DID express its concerns about big towers looming over everything. But eventually they came around to it. I hope the “real” tower turns out to look just like this.
https://urbanize.city/chicago/post/construction-fulton-market-43-story-apartments
Schools make such a big difference. If you want your kid to get into Harvard, you don’t move them to Florida. Sorry.
LMFAO
https://www.collegefactual.com/colleges/harvard-university/student-life/diversity/chart-geographic-breakdown.html
Do you ever tire of being wrong?
“You have to get the inventory down. Still bidding wars in some suburbs and city neighborhoods because there simply isn’t anything on the market. Other neighborhoods have too much listed still.”
What?
What inventory level are you looking for?
“If you want your kid to get into Harvard, you don’t move them to Florida.”
Who cares anyway? No one gets into Harvard–they all go to state schools and its fine.
If you think your kid will get into Harvard, you’re wrong and wasting your time.
““Potential Billion dollar developments. Does the city have any completion requirements in the developer agreements?”
Construction has already begun on several of the billion dollar developments. Related is building the 78 on the south side. They are one of the country’s largest developers.”
Great job not creating an unrelated question and answering it
“I don’t think anyone is concerned about them not getting it built over the next 15 years.”
Just because you dont think something doesnt mean its not a very real possibility
“If you want your kid to get into Harvard, you don’t move them to Florida.”
Who cares anyway? No one gets into Harvard–they all go to state schools and its fine.
If you think your kid will get into Harvard, you’re wrong and wasting your time.
I mean you really cant make it up
I think the individuals/bot posting under the moniker “Sabrina” are having a difficult time keeping their stories straight
“I’ll take Wheaton Central, OPRF, LT, Libertyville, Naperville North, Hinsdale South, Evanston High School”
What about Taft? Or Curie? 2d and third largest HS in CPS.
Would you take Taft over, say, Highland Park TEXAS HS?
“LMFAO [cite]”
doing zero investigation, I’ll bet a sawbuck that over half of those Florida kids went to private HS–and at least 6 of them to boarding school in New England.
With decent odds, I’d take the over on 75% of them (ie 46 of 61) having gone to private school.
“Take a trip out to California and ask home owners there how they feel about the drought and the fires.
New York State is one of the best situated states, especially upper state New York, for climate change. Perhaps we will all be moving to Syracuse?”
The fires are no doubt a quality of life and health concern (in CA and elsewhere in the west). But at no point in our lifetime (i.e., within the remaining lifetime of the youngest person commenting on this blog) will Syracuse be more desirable than California.
“They’ve been building out that high rise campus just north of the Moody’s site near Old Town for at least 6 years now. But they’re just finishing the third, and final, tower.”
10 years since they first proposed it:
https://www.skyscrapercity.com/threads/chicago-old-town-park-136m-447ft-41-fl-130m-426ft-40-fl-105m-344ft-31-fl-u-c.1443506/
When it was going to be 4 towers. But then Onni decided to keep one of the old buildings as the affordable building.
“will Syracuse be more desirable than California”
But I’d rather live in Syracuse than … uh, um … Fort Bidwell?? So you’re wrong.
“doing zero investigation, I’ll bet a sawbuck that over half of those Florida kids went to private HS–and at least 6 of them to boarding school in New England.
With decent odds, I’d take the over on 75% of them (ie 46 of 61) having gone to private school.”
The original comment was that you cant get into Harvard if you go to a Florida school. Even giving the 6 of so getting in from St Paul, Exter, etc there’s still a good number getting educated in Fl.
What % of students do you suppose from Illinois are coming from private HS?
“Chicago has to have one of the highest “crane” counts in the country, right?”
Not really, no:
https://www.constructiondive.com/news/after-dip-in-2020-north-american-crane-count-increases/598693/
“What % of students do you suppose from Illinois are coming from private HS?”
I would expect it is lower than Florida. Not that it matters in the context of the original assertion.
It’s a wholly-anecdotal group (and with one cohort far larger than the other), but a lower % of the people I know in IL (with the means to) send/sent their kids to private HS than do in FL.
Cool- thanks for the link anon(tfo).
There’s actually a more updated Q3 crane count. I know it changes constantly, and the pandemic didn’t help. Last time I saw, Chicago was #2 after Seattle but that was pre-pandemic. A lot of our buildings have finished construction.
But most cities got hammered in the last year for commercial cranes- not surprising.
Here’s the Q3 update on some of the cities.
Los Angeles: The second most populous city in the U.S. saw its second straight report with an increase in the number of cranes, jumping from 43 to 51. The growth can likely be attributed to an increase in major transportation projects in the city, RLB said. The number of cranes on commercial projects have declined, in addition to a dip in the hospitality sector, but there has been a spike in demand for residential construction.
San Francisco: The number of cranes in San Francisco grew by two from Q1 to Q3, but 10 new cranes have been erected within the last six months, RLB said, as some projects leave and others arrive. Most of the new cranes are for residential projects, which has seen an increase in demand, though others are for mixed-use and industrial projects.
Chicago: In January of 2017, RLB counted 56 cranes in Chicago. A steady, though not constant, decline in those numbers led to only seven counted cranes in Q3 of 2021. This, however, is due to a large number of projects downtown topping off and now leasing to new renters. The number of cranes is not anticipated to increase in the near future, RLB reported.
“10 years since they first proposed it:”
“Proposal” isn’t building it, is it? No, it’s not.
Proposal means they have to get the plan approved through the planning commission and voted on by the alderman. And then they had to get financing. And then they started construction.
So it’s been a pretty quick build for 3 big towers.
“The fires are no doubt a quality of life and health concern (in CA and elsewhere in the west). But at no point in our lifetime (i.e., within the remaining lifetime of the youngest person commenting on this blog) will Syracuse be more desirable than California.”
Who thought thousands would be moving to Texas anonny? It was the #1 destination for Californians in the last 2 years.
“I think the individuals/bot posting under the moniker “Sabrina” are having a difficult time keeping their stories straight”
Lots of upper middle class parents in the suburbs care about Harvard JohnnyU, as this blog has highlighted so many times.
My kids went to state schools. Most people’s kids do. But Illinois’ public schools are so much better than either Texas or Florida, it’s not even a competition. People get down to Florida and are shocked. Even in upscale neighborhoods/towns.
The great schools are a big selling point in Illinois. And actually also in New Jersey.
“Just because you dont think something doesnt mean its not a very real possibility”
Life happens JohnnyU. The new Helmet Jahn building lost its construction loan when the pandemic hit. Many buildings also lost financing when the Great Recession hit. Looks like the new Jahn building might be getting it back now though, with its new proposal. It’s a gorgeous design. I hope it gets built.
It’s taken a long time to build out Lakeshore East. That was delayed due to the housing bust.
Again, life happens. The economy will go into another recession. Some developments will be delayed. When the Great Depression hit, some luxury apartment buildings were never built in Chicago. There’s that one tower in Lakeview where they built the first of two towers but after the 1929 crash, the second one was shelved.
“If you think your kid will get into Harvard, you’re wrong and wasting your time.”
You are. But that doesn’t mean that 50,000, or whatever it was last year, won’t apply and try. For many parents, it’s “the dream.”
“What inventory level are you looking for?”
Under 6 months is a sellers market.
Anyone else see this gorgeous 1929 penthouse in the Gold Coast?
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1530-N-State-Pkwy-60610/home/14115150
It just sold. 7450 square feet duplex up.
Gorgeous double height library with the original wood paneling and floor-to-ceiling bookcases.
It has a terrace, washer/dryer in the unit and 2 parking spaces, including one interior and one exterior.
HOAs are $12,495 a month.
Listed on July 8 for $4.25 million
Under contract on August 20
Sold in October for $3.95 million
It won’t show up on the “over $4 million” list since it sold just under.
But wow- this sold fast for the price point.
“ Under 6 months is a sellers market.”
So what have we been in?
“ Life happens JohnnyU. The new Helmet Jahn building lost its construction loan when the pandemic hit. Many buildings also lost financing when the Great Recession hit. Looks like the new Jahn building might be getting it back now though, with its new proposal. It’s a gorgeous design. I hope it gets built.”
Exactly
Something “might” get built, what it is or it’s purpose, that’s the issue. Again 15 years is a couple of lifetimes
“Who thought thousands would be moving to Texas anonny? It was the #1 destination for Californians in the last 2 years.”
And? Lots of them move here to CO, too. Doesn’t mean there’s a fire sale on properties in desirable places to live in CA.
I’d certainly live in Austin before Syracuse. Would probably even do Dallas or Houston before Syracuse.
“a more updated Q3 crane count”
The right hand column in the table is the Q3-21 count.
“Would probably even do Dallas or Houston before Syracuse.”
With heat, hurricanes and the like?
Climate change is going to change a LOT of minds. Like I said, there are already Californians who are leaving. When your house burns down you begin to think differently. Geologists have said that upstate NY will have the best weather in the country. Don’t like Syracuse, go to Saratoga Springs or Buffalo.
“Climate change is going to change a LOT of minds. ”
no its not… people barely live in their condos for 3 years… the weather isn’t changing that rapidly if at all, nobody is thinking 100 years in the future when buying a house lol stop with this absolutely stupid take
“Something “might” get built, what it is or it’s purpose, that’s the issue. Again 15 years is a couple of lifetimes”
15 years is “lifetimes” now?
I’ve been running this blog for 14 years. I guess that’s my “lifetime”?
Lol.
That’s why they have a 10 to 20 year timeline. No billion dollar development springs up over night. Again, look at Lakeshore East.
They’ve begun construction on several of these developments already. They will eventually get developed. Chicago is growing. Thousands of apartments and condos will be built over the next decade.
Hooray!
“So what have we been in?”
Depends on your neighborhood.
Single family home inventory at 1.8 months. Not sure what it’s at right now but it’s fall when inventory usually drops. Condos is higher.
Condos downtown had been at 12 months. Then, I think it was at 8 months over the summer. I don’t know what it is right now. Inventory continues to fall, which is a good sign. But prices downtown won’t “recover” until you have a seller’s market.
“no its not… people barely live in their condos for 3 years… the weather isn’t changing that rapidly if at all, nobody is thinking 100 years in the future when buying a house lol stop with this absolutely stupid take”
Why are we talking about people in their condos? Lots of people live in HOUSES sonies. Are you in California? My god. My friends are desperate to get out of there as soon as their kids are out of high school for CLIMATE CHANGE reasons.
1. Fires
2. Drought is bad. So bad, there is a limit on water usage now.
They just want fresh air. It’s really bad for people with breathing problems. All up and down the west coast, actually.
Midwest has the fresh air. They are welcome to come here. Grand Rapids is booming. I tell people to consider moving there.
“Geologists have said that upstate NY will have the best weather in the country. Don’t like Syracuse, go to Saratoga Springs or Buffalo.”
Leaving aside the questionable influence of geology on weather, I can confirm (having grown up there) that Buffalonians do in fact contend that they have the best weather in the country. Living and spending time elsewhere over the past few decades has given me a different opinion on that, but to each his or her own. That said, Saratoga Springs is very nice, as is Ithaca, and I can see why geologists would be partial to it – the place is gorges!
“Leaving aside the questionable influence of geology on weather, I can confirm (having grown up there) that Buffalonians do in fact contend that they have the best weather in the country.”
Apparently, they expect upstate NY to have only like 3 days above 100 per year when other states/cities will be seeing 20+.
And it won’t get that cold either. Also will get plenty of rain so you won’t get extreme droughts.
I could see a lot of GenXers retiring to that part of the country, actually. Isn’t Buffalo seeing growth now? I thought a lot were leaving NYC and heading there for cheaper housing options and the like.
“My friends are desperate to get out of there as soon as their kids are out of high school for CLIMATE CHANGE reasons.
1. Fires
2. Drought is bad. So bad, there is a limit on water usage now.
They just want fresh air. It’s really bad for people with breathing problems. All up and down the west coast, actually.”
Fires have literally always happened in california, back before the full suppression methods employed over the last 40 years by our government, fires would burn many more acres at a much more controllable rate and not destroy the crowns of trees. But people bitched and bitched about smoke, so they put fires out at all cost and what you are seeing today is the buildup of decades worth of fuels, that plus a normal drought and the bark beetles killing trees off and you’ll have wildfires like you did the last 2 years.
in 2019 we had a very wet winter and thankfully we are starting out very wet so far this year (hope it continues!) because wet winter = very few fires
but citing “climate change” is a lazy and intellectually dishonest argument for shitty government policies that have led to these massive and destructive fires over the last 10 years or so… not to mention climate “Activists” have been caught starting forest fires these past 2 years… humans are horrible
ps: I’d take the relative risk, and live in Bethesda or Chicago or Denver, or even suburban Detroit, before I’d live in Syracuse.
https://www.cbsnews.com/media/top-10-safest-us-cities-from-natural-disasters/
“there is a limit on water usage now”
There’s probably going to be a water usage limit forever now.
“Why are we talking about people in their condos? Lots of people live in HOUSES sonies. Are you in California? My god. My friends are desperate to get out of there as soon as their kids are out of high school for CLIMATE CHANGE reasons.
1. Fires
2. Drought is bad. So bad, there is a limit on water usage now.
They just want fresh air. It’s really bad for people with breathing problems. All up and down the west coast, actually.”
I’m in California, on the Peninsula. We left Chicago a couple years ago. Are your friends selling? I’d like to buy! We love it here and plan to stay. The weather is so nice, I wish we would’ve made the move earlier!
You are wrong on this one. Please, all this talk about the “great exodus” from here is just not true. It makes for attention grabbing headlines. Can’t even buy a fixer upper under 2.5. If it’s so bad, where are the deals? You don’t live here, I do. I’m living it, and this picture you’re painting is 100% false.
I love Chicago, but you do need to step back and breathe — I can even take deep breaths here, believe it or not! I’m a life long midwesterner, all our family is in Chicago and Detroit area. We like to visit, but we’re here to stay.
By the way, no limit on water here. Not even this summer. Most places have landscaping that needs minimal water, if your friends don’t, that’s on them.
“Please, all this talk about the “great exodus” from here is just not true.”
I never said “great exodus” but California has been losing population in recent years for the first time in its history.
I lived in San Francisco for 7 years so you don’t have to “sell” me KA on the Bay Area. Been there, done that.
No, it’s usually those who have been there 20+ years who can’t deal with the weather changes, fires and drought. Thankfully, when I was living there, I didn’t deal with any of those things (nor a big quake) but my friends are tired of the air quality with the fires. It’s been BAD.
I never said that there should be “deals” on housing. There haven’t been for about 30 years as there are simply too many people and not enough building. As you are aware, it’s not like there are high rises on the peninsula.
Sorry- I had it wrong about the water limits. Newsom asked for people to “voluntarily” limit. But if you don’t get rain this winter, he will put on mandatory limits. As he should.
Nevada is also in serious water trouble.
https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2021-09-30/california-to-consider-mandatory-water-restrictions
Zillow update
https://twitter.com/jowens510/status/1455633553195036678
Only $500M in losses
“an analyst said two-thirds of the homes it bought are underwater”
“Nevada is also in serious water trouble.”
no its not… hasn’t been an issue since the 1990’s
and so what if they have limits, maybe dumbfucks will stop attempting to have a massive lush green lawns in the high desert for literally no reason at all
Surprised the Zillow thing didn’t work out. All the data, the eyeballs, well funded…Selling at a loss is hardcore- makes me wonder what they thought they were/are seeing.
“Only $500M in losses”
Yeah- they tried to say it was only because they couldn’t find the labor. But that was just a part of it.
They overpaid for the properties. And then they tried to flip them fast (a week or two is what I’ve seen on a lot of them- which means they weren’t really fixing up many of those houses). But the buyers were having none of it. So they had to hold those houses and ended up selling for less than they paid.
The market has cooled and inventory is low. Bad combination.
They are closing down the whole operation and will take the losses through the next several quarters. Laying off 25% of their workforce.
Wonder what is going on at RedfinNow?
CEO insisted that iBuying could work but you need to scale it even larger than what Zillow was doing. But then you’d need even more capital to do it.
Also, out of the home owners who sought out an offer, only 10% actually took it. They must have been too low on a lot of homes too.
If you believe that the AVERAGE homeowner knows the value of their home then the only time they would sell to an ibuyer is if they were desperate for a quick turnaround (rare) of if the ibuyer was overpaying them for their home.
I had Redfin give me a quote on my home just for grins. It was pretty low and they even acknowledged it in writing. Then they tell you that of course you could sell for more money with one of their listing agents. I believe it’s just another way for them to get their foot in the door for a listing.
“I believe it’s just another way for them to get their foot in the door for a listing.”
The Zillow CEO said for the 90% that didn’t take the offer, it left a bad taste in their mouth and they went away angry. So Zillow wasn’t apt to actually GET the listing after all.
I don’t believe that Zillow was in the traditional brokerage business. They sell leads to unaffiliated agents. In their case a lost ibuying opportunity could have theoretically turned into a lead for one of those agents. But the way Redfin positions all this it could absolutely serve as a lead capture technique for traditional brokerage services.
“ Surprised the Zillow thing didn’t work out. All the data, the eyeballs, well funded…Selling at a loss is hardcore- makes me wonder what they thought they were/are seeing.”
I think they were betting that they could create new comps and HAWT ™ neighborhoods and reap the rewards. Similar enough to pump and dump.
It will be interesting to see where these purchases were clustered and the effects over the next 3-9 mo
“It will be interesting to see where these purchases were clustered”
According to this article: https://therealdeal.com/2021/11/01/zillows-ibuying-bleeds-profits-across-most-active-markets/
about 1/3 were in Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Atlanta and Minneapolis metros.
Still really curious about the comp structure for the buyers–would bet that it was a motivator to get even bad deals closed.
A pretty good thread on Zillow.
https://twitter.com/jowens510/status/1455937112612622339
JFC, losing $80k on every house?
I can only imagine the discussions
The losses are only temporary, Real Estate only goes up! Time to double down
“about 1/3 were in Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Atlanta and Minneapolis metros.
Still really curious about the comp structure for the buyers–would bet that it was a motivator to get even bad deals closed.”
So this guy I believe was Zillow’s lead in MSP/STP – https://www.krislindahl.com/
His monthly advertising budget was likely equal to the losses of 3 or 4 homes a month.
Anecdotal data point(s) – seemed to target the elderly and immigrants/1st generation.
As for the motivation, Zillow must have thought they were still a start up and the mantra of Growth and any cost still held or the C level suite is retarded
you can search for ‘zillow owned’ homes and there are none near chicago, cincinatti and minneapolis though are the closest markets they participated in
Just posted my October update. Sales were down a little from last year but they were still higher than any other year for the last 15: https://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2021/11/chicago-real-estate-market-update-home-sales-still-going-strong/
Still have record low inventories and fast sale times. Condos mostly driving the sales surge.
“Still have record low inventories and fast sale times. Condos mostly driving the sales surge.”
Thanks Gary. Inventories just remain really low.
How many of the sales are being driven by new construction? There’s been a surge of closings in Tribune Tower and Vista but should probably see a bunch more of those over the next few months.
Hard to believe we are staying at these elevated sales levels. But I’m hearing from people that they want to buy now because they are scared about rising mortgage rates next year which would seriously cramp their ability to buy now that prices have risen.
Gary: what’s so interesting about the October numbers is that in the last 2 years we haven’t had dozens of new construction condo towers selling units like in 2005, 2006 and 2007 when October sales were last so high.
Of course, in those years, inventory was much higher in existing inventory. In 2021, there is little new construction inventory OR existing inventory.
It’s crazy low out there.
Also, the data you gave about half the sales happening quickly just indicates to me that there are some properties that just aren’t as desirable and those are sitting a long time. But everything new that comes on, if it’s halfway acceptable, sells almost immediately due to the low inventory.
The inventory is going to remain low until the spring.
If rates are going up to start 2022, will sellers all rush to sell?
Or will even more buyers come out of the woodwork to buy on worries about rising rates?
It’s still a sellers market out there.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/live/2021/11/10/business/news-business-stock-market.amp.html
Ouch
It’s hard to believe that the market is remaining this hot, but it is. Even into the holidays.
But there’s not enough on the market. It’s going to be really slim pickings into the spring market, unless a bunch of people decide to list.
According to Crain’s, Jim Belushi has been looking at properties on the Near North Side.
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/residential-real-estate/jim-belushi-shopping-chicago-home
Jim Belushi, the TV and movie star who became a cannabis farmer, spent the weekend shopping for a home in Chicago, two real estate industry sources confirmed.
Belushi toured more than a dozen properties on the city’s North Side on Saturday and Sunday, the sources confirmed. Crain’s could not determine specific locations or prices.
“Jim Belushi has been looking at properties on the Near North Side.”
We should care why? Is he a housing market “expert” now?
“We should care why? Is he a housing market “expert” now?”
Because it’s another indicator that Chicago isn’t “dead” and the luxury market is doing well (he’s selling a $33 million house in California, so I’m assuming he’s buying in the upper bracket here.)
That’s why we care WP.