Market Conditions: September Sales Rebound YOY But Still Under 2008 and 2009
The September sales data is out. It should be no surprise to anyone that while sales rebounded in Chicago from September last year, rising 6.8%, they are still well under the Great Recession sales data despite record low mortgage rates.
From the Illinois Association of Realtors:
In the city of Chicago, September 2011 home sales (single family and condominiums) totaled 1,498, up 6.8 percent from 1,403 homes sold in September 2010. The city of Chicago median home sale price for September 2011 was $190,000, up 5.6 percent compared to September 2010 when it was $180,000.
“September home sales in the city of Chicago show signs of stabilization, with an increase in the units sold for both single family and condominiums,” said REALTOR® Bob Floss, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and broker-owner of Bob Floss and Son Realty. “While interest rates remain historically low and prices compelling, we remain concerned of the overall economic stability of our marketplace with unemployment numbers and job creation still top of mind for so many buyers and homeowners, alike.”
September sales for the last 5 years:
- 2007: 2172 sales
- 2008: 1816 sales
- 2009: 1918 sales
- 2010: 1403 sales
- 2011: 1498 sales
Median prices for the last 5 years:
- 2007: $267,750
- 2008: $268,600
- 2009: $225,000
- 2010: $180,000
- 2011: $190,000
“The housing market is showing some positive signs in terms of sales volume, yet sale prices remain lower and more sales are expected in the category of homes priced less than $100,000,” said Dr. Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) of the University of Illinois. “For Illinois, the forecast indicates that total home sales will be positive for October and November on a month-to-month and year-over-year basis, a rather unexpected outcome for the last quarter of the year when the market typically cools down.”
For the second month in a row, the IAR has NOT provided the separate Chicago condo data. Call me a cynic but that usually indicates to me that the data is NOT improving. Since it doesn’t support the story, the IAR just doesn’t provide it.
But if anyone has the condo sales data, I’d be interested in seeing it.
September Illinois Home Sales Up 13.5 Percent from a Year Ago: Statewide Median Price at $136,850 [Press Release, Illinois Association of Realtors, October 20, 2011]
Let me be the first to say…
BUY NOW OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER!!!
2008: prices rise slightly, volume drops significantly
2009: volume increases slightly, prices drop significantly
2010: volume drops significantly, prices drop significantly
2011: prices rise slightly, volume rises slightly
2012: ???? Prices right slightly, volume drops significantly
2013: ???? volume increases slightly, prices drop significantly
2014: ???? volume drops significantly, prices drop significantly
2015: ???? prices rise slightly, volume rises slightly
OK – the data shows that the market is improving (albeit slowly) – what possible negative twist can you debbie downers possibly spout from your tiny brains? Here we go…….
How bad can things get? If we use new home sales as an example, things are the worst (or just slightly better than the worst) they’ve been since they started keeping records in 1963. Used homes are bit different but it’s no surprise this is going to be a long, slow, downward trend that will continue for years, and every bottom caller will be flushed out and discredited as next year’s low beats the previous year’s low. And it keeps going, and going, with no end in sight. And prices will drop, volume will rise, until a point; and then another drop off in volume and prices; and lather rinse repeat.
HD – what are your predictions based upon?
I can do the same thing:
2012: ????prices increase moderately, volume increases significantly
2013: ????? prices increase significantly, volume increases significantly
2014: ???? volume increases moderately, prices increase moderately
2014: ???? volume increases moderately, prices increase significantly.
what a frickin’ dope!!! Honestly, YOU advise people in need of financial restructuring? YOU, my friend are the LAST person to be advising anyone about anything.
Of course new homes are being built, there’s enough current homes around to fill demand. The days of the US economy being driven by new home construction are gone. Look to AZ and NV. Those states will be festering for a long time. Nothing there without new home construction. Hot cesspools.
Sorry that should “new homes are not being built”
Sorry that should say “new homes are not being built”
Clio,
The sales does not show that the market is improving. Sales were at a 14 year low. Comparing the data to last year’s distorted numbers and showing a 6.8% increase is ridiculous.
However, contract data is showing some improvement but it’s not yet reflected in the sales numbers because for some reason contracts are taking longer to close: http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2011/10/chicago-homes-under-contract-taking-a-lot-longer-to-close/
This is fun:
2012: ????prices increase moderately, volume increases moderately
2013: ????? prices increase moderately, volume increases significantly
2014: ???? volume increases moderately, prices increase moderately
2014: ???? volume increases moderately, prices increase significantly.
Gary, were the last 14 years part of the bubble? Was the sustainable? Should that be what we measure things against?
Clio, sure the market is improving a bit, but that is not surprising. Once the prices are down where they should be and the market stabilizes the volume must go up. The problem is that too many homes are under water, the shadow inventory is still there and the economy is not strong enough to encourage buying for most. So overall, it is hard to paint a rosy picture.
What do you guys think would be better for the economy, a 15% rise in housing prices or a 15% drop in housing prices?
I lean towards a decrease being healthier in the long term. After all, we are all consumers of housing so that would represent a lower cost of living and would help new businesses form with lower overhead expense. Homes would also be more affordable for the majority of Americans who have not seen their real wages rise in many years. Of course this would mean more short term pain for underwater owners and cause more foreclosures etc., but the current levels of debt are unsustainable and I think a decline would accelerate the country’s deleveraging and finally kill the zombie banks and eventually pave the way to a real, sustainable recovery.
My 2012-15 prediction followed the 2008-2011 patterns. Lather rinse repeat.
” I think a decline would accelerate the country’s deleveraging and finally kill the zombie banks and eventually pave the way to a real, sustainable recovery.”
I admire your concern for your unborn grandchildren.
Look at other nations’ rapid deleveraging and what happened to their economies to get a flavor for why that might not be such a great idea.
“Gary, were the last 14 years part of the bubble? Was the sustainable? Should that be what we measure things against?”
The bubble started around 2000 and was clearly not sustainable. But it is significant that sales activity is around where it was well before the bubble started. Also, surely people didn’t stay in their homes as long when prices were going up fast but in the early days of the bubble prices weren’t going up that fast. Once buyers and sellers come together on their price expectations I would expect a significant increase in volume.
“Once buyers and sellers come together on their price expectations I would expect a significant increase in volume.”
I concur : )
““Once buyers and sellers come together on their price expectations I would expect a significant increase in volume.”
….how profound……
here are some other predictions:
1. When people are happy, I expect they generally feel good.
2. When people are sick, I would expect they don’t feel so good.
3. When people are mad, I would expect they are not so happy.
Good grief, are we in kindergarten?!!!
Anon- are you talking about russias default in the 1990s or argentina, both of whom roared back after their massive deleveraging? What about iceland whose economy is turning around? Compare that with debt laden grrce, ireland, japan…how well has the zombie bank syndrome worked for them?
The current system protects bondholders which are primarily the big banks. That’s why they want you to believe deleveraging is bad.
I have no crystal ball but from what I’m reading the mortgage interest deduction could be changed drastically within the next few years. The proposals I’ve read increase the tax burden of the wealthy via giving a 15% credit on mortgages up to 500k for primary residence and not even making it itemized 😀
This is a good proposal benefitting all homeowners except the top 10%. Look for high end RE prices to get hit hard if the case.
Threadjack:
Does anyone know what’s being built on the former parking lot by Navy Pier bordered by Illinois, Peshtigo, Grand, and LSD? Construction started a few weeks ago.
Thanks in advance!
Public opinion is finally turning against the status quo of protecting the ensconced megabanks. Then again they have Barack Hussein Obama and Bitch Romney in their pockets so don’t count them out just yet
“What do you guys think would be better for the economy, a 15% rise in housing prices or a 15% drop in housing prices?”
if they go low enough, people who want to step up will be able to afford the new home while still paying for/renting out the old home instead of walking away
Bradford – this?
http://yochicago.com/ground-broken-for-500-lake-shore-drive-apartment-tower/23912/
“are you talking about russias default in the 1990s or argentina, both of whom roared back after their massive deleveraging?”
How has the *typical* person in Russia or Argentina or wherever faired? I don’t give a shit about the aggregate economy, I care about my personal economy. Which is always my point.
Also, good to see you taking up league with the Occupy Wall Street hippies. You and Bob, on the radical left.
“Bradford – this?”
I prefer:
http://chicago.curbed.com/archives/2011/02/28/new-renderings-of-peshtigo-rental-highrise-in-streeterville.php
“The proposals I’ve read … giv[e] a 15% credit on mortgages up to 500k for primary residence”
How would that work?
It was in a wsj article today. It wasn’t clear but I’m assuming a 15% tax credit per dollar of mortgage interest paid in addition to standard deduction.
Here’s the Chicago condo/th sales data for September:
Year/Sales/Median
1996 757 $127,000
1997 959 $142,900
1998 1,158 $158,950
1999 1,195 $180,000
2000 1,255 $219,900
2001 1,249 $223,000
2002 1,621 $245,000
2003 2,114 $255,500
2004 1,960 $269,450
2005 2,344 $276,538
2006 2,006 $285,000
2007 1,650 $310,200
2008 1,188 $311,750
2009 1,159 $270,000
2010 820 $240,000
2011 863 $234,600
i don’t think they have too many street festivals or county fairs in Russia but I get the impression they celebrate a bit on Argentina given it’s Latin America so my guess is they fairest better than the Russians.
where is gail lissner to interpret the data for us and read us children’s bedtime stories and sing us sweet lullabyes?
“where is gail lissner to interpret the data for us and read us children’s bedtime stories and sing us sweet lullabyes”
Bob – it WILL be OK……for people who already own their home or ones who are buying right now. Buyers who delay buying until 2012 -2013 are likely going to be saying ” wow, in 2011 I could have bought that place for x dollars at y rate. Now I am paying 1.5x at a 2.5y rate”
G – good to see that price drops are at least slowing down, maybe in a few years the median prices will actually go up
Clio you again prove what a moron you are and how you don’t have the slightest grasp on math, price sensitivity or interest rate sensitivity. This is part of the reason your RE empire is hemmoraging cash and crumbling slowly..
month by month.
Really Bob? Wow – I am sure if we took a poll out there, 100% of the people would rather have my portfolio than yours…. oh wait, you don’t have a portfolio….
“grasp on math, price sensitivity or interest rate sensitivity”
He’s just predicting near-term hyper-inflation, Bob.
Anon; debt servitude is the modern day serfdom. Sometimes in the case of underwater homeowners, the debtor is tied to the land.
yeah, because as we know, hyperinflation of the world’s reserve currency is quite common
“debt servitude is the modern day serfdom.”
I didn’t realize that serfs could petition the courts for relief from their status.
“Sometimes in the case of underwater homeowners, the debtor is tied to the land.”
Really? Serfs could just default on their obligations and walk away?
Yes, hyperinflation in the USofA is just around the corner.
“G – good to see that price drops are at least slowing down, maybe in a few years the median prices will actually go up”
How do you conclude that price drops are slowing from median price data?
“Yes, hyperinflation in the USofA is just around the corner.”
What will that do to housing with higher interest rates, higher non-housing costs, and flat wages?
G.
If it were (hyper) which it won’t be. 5-7 yrs of 5-7% does enough damage. Home prices would rise significantly. Also wages would be forced up – hyper and flat wages can not go together. The streets would be set ablaze.
flat wages and 5-7%.. now that can go together. Then again.. It’s my opinion that is what is currently occurring.
“What will that do to housing with higher interest rates, higher non-housing costs, and flat wages?”
Well, it is the only (non-reality-altering) possible explanation for housing up 50% in 1-2 years *and* mortgage interest rates going to 10% in the same time frame.
I was joking.
clio: “OK – the data shows that the market is improving (albeit slowly) – what possible negative twist can you debbie downers possibly spout from your tiny brains? Here we go…….”
Before you get your panties in a twist, note that you:
1) ignored any negative news (or, given that the NAR hides the negatives by omission, ignored the implications that have already been pointed out)
2) basically called everyone who disagrees with the NAR an idiot (“tiny brains”)
3) proceeded to insult several posters personally.
Why in the f*** should anyone engage with you? Beyond the fact that you are consistently the most insulting person on these boards, you have shown a complete lack of willingness to engage in facts that do not feed into your narrative.
You are a shill for the industry and a terrible person. Go away please.
“Why in the f*** should anyone engage with you?”
1st wife was Harvard MBA – she calculated the NPV of future monthly cash flows… *or* Clio has a schlong like a 45oz beer can. Otherwise there is no possible explanation.
How are prices holding up in the burbs?
“flat wages and 5-7%.. now that can go together. Then again.. It’s my opinion that is what is currently occurring.”
It certainly would help explain why the Great Decline continues for housing.
“Well, it is the only (non-reality-altering) possible explanation for housing up 50% in 1-2 years *and* mortgage interest rates going to 10% in the same time frame.”
You mean clio is spewing nonsense again?
“Why in the f*** should anyone engage with you?”
look in the mirror and ask that same question…..
(actually, people engage with me because I tell the truth and I give people honest hope instead of crushing people’s spirits and dreams…. life is short – who gives a crap if you die with 10 million dollars or 10 thousand dollars. Believe me, I see a lot of death – it doesn’t make a damn difference).
“1st wife was Harvard MBA – she calculated the NPV of future monthly cash flows… *or* Clio has a schlong like a 45oz beer can”
uhhhh – false on #1 (she was a harvard md) and true on #2……
Thanks anon and lizla
“How do you conclude that price drops are slowing from median price data?”
um, simple math?
2008 1,188 $311,750
2009 1,159 $270,000 * 13% decline
2010 820 $240,000 * 11% decline
2011 863 $234,600 * 2.25% decline
thats how I see declines slowing… I didn’t say price drops were slowing, i said they were still dropping, just at a slower rate
Question:
A co-worker and I were discussing down payments when buying a home. He was saying that it was possible to get financing with less than 5% down. Is this still true??
I thought you needed 20%+….
“um, simple math?
2008 1,188 $311,750
2009 1,159 $270,000 * 13% decline
2010 820 $240,000 * 11% decline
2011 863 $234,600 * 2.25% decline
thats how I see declines slowing…”
But median prices have nothing to do with prices as we’ve discussed several times. It is mostly mix shift.
“He was saying that it was possible to get financing with less than 5% down.”
Depends. For a Fannie owned REO, you can get Homepath financing for about 3-5% down:
http://www.homepath.com/financing/index.html
For a regular loan, it will be much harder, and you will certainly pay more for it.
Steve, you can still get FHA loans with 3.5% down. But you would get a lower rate and fewer fees if you had 20-30% down.
Actually Tipster, thats not true, lately I almost always see FHA and VA loans have lower rates than 30 year fixed conformings, don’t know why, but thats what I see
the difference in cost is made up with PMI however, so you are correct re: the fees
“But median prices have nothing to do with prices as we’ve discussed several times. It is mostly mix shift.”
Simple math, indeed.
really? you guys are being d-bags and misinterpreting what I am saying, whats wrong no sunshine got your panties in a twist?
clio: “look in the mirror and ask that same question….. ”
Classic clio…pick out only what you want to hear and lob a troll bomb in response. You’re a joke.
I still wonder if we’re going to see a mass push of short sales/defaults in the coming months as more people realize its their last chance to do it without tax implications (assuming the law doesn’t get extended).
FHA vs Conventional. Totally depends on the buyer (credit scores mainly) and property type which one is cheaper.
Generally, conventional financing will be cheaper as the monthly MI costs are lower.
However, in situations where it is a condo and/or the credit may be slightly bruised (less than 740), FHA can wind up being cheaper. Fha doesn’t penalize the borrower for lower scores with both rate and MI, plus they don’t hit you for buying a condo with an LTV above 75%.
Base FHA rates are typically lower than conventional rates. However, when you factor the other costs, they may not be cheaper even though the rate may be lower.
Jennifer that law is in effect, like most other temporary policy patchwork measures to kick the can down the road, through 2012.
Ben Bernanke, Timothy Geithner and Barack Obama really tried their best to get as many generation X & Yyers into overpriced unsustainable real estate these past few years as one final hurrah and wealth transfer to older generations who benefitted enormously from this bubble. It didn’t work on me because I knew it was unsustainable and the emperor had no clothes.
You can lead a horse to a latrine but you can’t make him drink piss.
Bob, who is that directed at? Be more specific with your analogies.
TftinChi,
What do you have against my views? They are very valid and have been proven to be economically rewarding.
You guys are like the people from the early 1930s who said “don’t buy stocks – too risky and they will always go down” – how did that work out for them? Honestly, you guys really are stupid – and you won’t realize it until 2015 when HD is still looking for a house – but this time, the prices of the houses he will be looking at will be in the 500s and interest rates will be 5-7%.
I don’t always agree with Clio, but this seems about right
“you won’t realize it until 2015 when HD is still looking for a house – but this time, the prices of the houses he will be looking at will be in the 500s and interest rates will be 5-7%.”
clio: “What do you have against my views?”
You need to re-read what I wrote again. Carefully.
It isn’t really your views. We are all entitled to our opinions. It is your attitude, the name calling, the personal attacks and the refusal to even acknowledge information that is contrary to your worldview.
It is very simple and has nothing to do with your, or my, status in life or who is “right”. You continually choose the most grating and offensive ways to communicate with people on this site. Is it any surprise that you get the response that you do?
Clio you are like the guy that levered up in stocks in the 1920s. I do like your usage of the 1931 analogy however as you would be the guy buying securities on margin in 1931 if you were still able to do so.
not surprised you are too stupid & unknowledgable to know about ’32.
you are also too stupid to know that the fed has an explicit ZIRP through 2013 which means your predictions are completely wrong on the face and you are just blowing hot smoke out of your smelly ass because you are a buffoon who over-levered up on real estate whose financial future is completely determined by whether the bubble reinflates or not.
TftinChi – ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!!! Look at 99% of the comments on this site – they are all nasty and ridiculous and yet you seem to single me out. Do you know me? Maybe you are secretly attracted to me and I rejected you. Sorry about that…but don’t blame me…
“Maybe you are secretly attracted to me and I rejected you. Sorry about that…but don’t blame me…”
lol. seriously clio. come on.
Riz, I gotta say something as ridiculous as TftinChi
“Look at 99% of the comments on this site – they are all nasty and ridiculous and yet you seem to single me out.”
Confirming innumeracy…
TftinChi – there ya go…..
I will agree that 99% of the posts by or about clio are nasty, ridiculous, or both.
However, even if it seems, at times, that posts by or about clio are 99% of the comments on this site, that’s simply (and demonstrably, if anyone cared to quantify) incorrect.
I will also agree that at least someone here is secretly attracted to clio. But I don’t think it’s Tft.
“I will also agree that at least someone here is secretly attracted to clio. But I don’t think it’s Tft.”
WHO WHO WHO? Inquiring minds want to know!!!
“WHO WHO WHO? Inquiring minds want to know!!!”
First, you have to go five days of regular posting w/o calling anyone an idiot or a moron or any other similar disparaging term.
Then we can talk about it.
OK – it will be hard, but…..
Regular people are sitting on a LOT of money. Look at this house that closed a couple of days ago – bought with CASH:
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Oak-Brook/308-Oak-Brook-Rd-60523/home/18087498
…and I am sure this isn’t some celebrity or famous rich person.
Hahahah. If you both had any shred of credibility left you just lost it with such illogical and irrational points of view.
Vlajos on October 20th, 2011 at 2:24 pm
I don’t always agree with Clio, but this seems about right
“you won’t realize it until 2015 when HD is still looking for a house – but this time, the prices of the houses he will be looking at will be:…”
HD – wtf? are YOU kidding me? Seriously, dude – get used to renting. If you don’t pull the trigger soon, you are going to be left in the dust…
“WHO WHO WHO? Inquiring minds want to know!!!”
lol…I think I have a guess too : )
Clio:
Your worldview is pretty warped if you think any “regular people” have $2M cash to drop on a home. A person who would do that is almost certainly in the top 1% of net worth.
So are “we” among the 99%?
“Really? Serfs could just default on their obligations and walk away?”
They often did and went either to the towns or to the lands of lords who offered their serfs better terms. Often lords of lands that needed development (much land farmed in Roman times reverted to forest in the Dark Ages and was redeveloped in Medieval times) put the word out that they were offering better terms and people started showing up.
As a practical matter Medieval lords lacked the resources to keep serfs from running away, especially if another lord was willing to protect such serfs.
Serfs in western Europe had rights under the law and could petition for redress as well. On every fief there was a serf who knew the laws and terms of agreement by which Germanic tribes and war bands made the division of labor into professional warriors (knights and lords) and farmers (serfs).
It’s Friday people! Chin up!
Just had to share. Here’s my vote for THE most depressing condo on the Northside:
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/4816-N-Avers-Ave-60625/unit-G/home/23035599
I mean, if you really need a place to crash, it’s only 15K and I think Albany Park is the most underrated nabe in the city. But if you make an offer, don’t offer full price! Last sold for 215K in April 2008 a few months before the global financial meltdown.
Milkster – that could be a pretty good investment. If you got it for 15k (with all fees) and put in another 15k, you could rent that out for 600-800 and get well over a 10% return.
” Look at this house that closed a couple of days ago – bought with CASH:”
Congrats on the new house! Do y9ou expect to get teh taxes reduced?
Hey Clio!
Well, I thought that for a second, but just started to dig into it and I don’t think this is going to be a good buy for anyone unfortunately unless they can whip that HOA into shape. There are a number of violations on the building including sewage and standing water in the basement, a rodent infestation and rodent holes, unstable building structure…the list goes on and on.
So just a reminder to everyone to please perform adequate due diligence with any purchase.
I can’t believe this ugly unit ever sold for 215K.
“I can’t believe this ugly unit ever sold for 215K”
Probably fraud, that would equate to $390.00 per square foot.
Haha, valasko. Now it’s $27/sqft. And not even worth that much.
hey, valasko, what’s up with the scaffolding at MoMo, and what’s replacing the Loehmanns?
Alhtough they appear to have used 2 stripper poles to shore up the ceiling. So you could multi-purpose with those!
@anon,
Piece of trim fell off the base and hit a pedestrian, city required scaffolding and engineering report on the exterior wall, big effin mess.
One of the new Walgreens concepts stores is going in.
“Alhtough they appear to have used 2 stripper poles to shore up the ceiling. So you could multi-purpose with those!”
hahahhahah – I like the way you think, Milkster!!!
October Chicago sfh/condo/th sales and median
1997 1,731 $129,900
1998 1,855 $138,000
1999 1,978 $159,500
2000 2,106 $174,710
2001 2,177 $200,000
2002 2,503 $215,000
2003 2,996 $236,000
2004 2,651 $241,000
2005 2,846 $268,500
2006 2,630 $278,000
2007 2,007 $285,000
2008 1,564 $261,000
2009 2,068 $215,000
2010 1,225 $183,000
2011 1,324 $162,000 (44% short/REO sales)
Lake View October condo/th sales:
1988 78
1989 86
1990 75
1991 64
1992 88
1993 101
1994 81
1995 127
1996 106
1997 131
1998 125
1999 111
2000 159
2001 131
2002 169
2003 180
2004 169
2005 207
2006 163
2007 147
2008 98
2009 124
2010 61
2011 70 (17% short/REO sales)
Lincoln Park October condo/th sales:
1988 78
1989 82
1990 78
1991 78
1992 85
1993 108
1994 92
1995 87
1996 94
1997 112
1998 76
1999 104
2000 94
2001 91
2002 97
2003 112
2004 131
2005 154
2006 98
2007 84
2008 62
2009 61
2010 37
2011 39 (15% short/REO sales)
Near North October condo/th sales:
1997 146
1998 152
1999 203
2000 196
2001 161
2002 260
2003 418
2004 238
2005 236
2006 215
2007 260
2008 150
2009 200
2010 124
2011 142 (26% short/REO sales)
Loop October condo/th sales:
2005 68
2006 268
2007 113
2008 53
2009 67
2010 34
2011 37 (24% short/REO sales)
Near South October condo/th sales:
2005 62
2006 139
2007 68
2008 78
2009 57
2010 33
2011 24 (63% short/REO sales)
Thanks G. That is fantastic information. So it’s up slightly from last year but it’s still super depressed.
Interesting to see how many are distress sales. It puts to rest the argument that they’re not happening in the GZ.