Market Conditions: Could A South Loop Condo Recovery Be Coming Sooner Than We Think?
Crain’s recently analyzed the downtown Chicago condo market over the last 5 years and put together a report on the Great Chicago Condo Bust.
According to Crains, 4 out of 10 condo projects proposed or under way in 2007 wound up in financial distress.
In retrospect, 2007 “was the beginning of the end, and stupid deals were going on,” says Garry Benson, president and CEO of Garrison Partners Inc., a Chicago-based residential consulting and marketing firm. “Stupid deals fall first, and they were exceedingly stupid at the end.”
No surprise, the South Loop was hit the hardest.
Of the 129 downtown condo projects on the market five years ago, 53, or 41.1 percent, have run afoul of their lenders. The greatest concentration of distress has been in the South Loop, widely recognized as the city’s most overbuilt neighborhood. Twenty-six of 44 South Loop projects, or 59.1 percent, have been financially troubled at some point in the past five years. That includes three condo towers in the Central Station development taken over recently by a group of lenders and New York-based developer Related Cos.
The good news is that the market, though far from healthy, is in the early stages of recovery. Condo sales in the city are rising again, and developers have chipped away at the glut of unsold units in recent years, either by slashing prices or renting them. In 25 buildings being marketed in 2007—19.4 percent of the total—all or some units have been rented rather than sold, according to Crain’s analysis.
The number of projects in loan trouble has fallen, too, as lenders have seized failed developments or restructured defaulted construction loans.
“I think distress is something that is going to be behind us very shortly,” says Gail Lissner, vice president at Appraisal Research Counselors, a Chicago-based consulting firm. “There are very few buildings left in the market that still fall in that category.”
According to Appraisal Research, sales contracts on new downtown condo units actually peaked in 2005. It appears they hit a bottom in 2011.
- 2005: 8162 units
- 2007: 3724 units
- 2011: 410 units
- First 6 months of 2012: 377 units
But never fear, the experts are saying baby boomers will spur demand.
As the market recovers, rented units in condo buildings will be the first to go on the market, Mr. Benson says. And he doesn’t think that day is too far away: Demand will come from baby boomers who want to sell their homes in the suburbs and move downtown and young professionals who are tired of renting, he says.
“It’s a demographic issue like it’s never been,” he says. “We can’t avoid it. We’re going to have another run.”
Will those of you holding onto those 1-bedroom starter condos in the South Loop be able to sell sooner than you think?
The complete guide to Chicago’s condo collapse [Crain’s Chicago Business, Alby Gallun and David Lee Matthews, October 8, 2012]- be sure to check out the map of all the developments.









