Re-Selling A 3-Bedroom Bank Owned House in North Center: 3134 N. Oakley
You all have been chattering about this 3-bedroom single family home at 3134 N. Oakley in North Center in some of the comments of other threads.
It was previously a bank owned home that sold in late June or early July for $285,000.
Just weeks later it returned to the market listed for $134,000 more than the previous sale at $419,000.
It has since been reduced $20,000 to $399,000.
We have chattered about many homes that were bank owned, rehabbed and then re-listed for much more.
Only the listing on this home doesn’t say it was rehabbed.
It just says: “Fresh paint throughout. Refinished hardwood flooring.”
The kitchen has the same cherry cabinets, stainless steel appliances and granite counter tops as when it was bank owned.
The living room curtains even appear to be the same ones from when the house was previously on the market.
The house was built in 1902 on a 26×120 lot (per the prior listing.)
It has central air but only a one car garage.
2 of the 3 bedrooms are on the second floor with the third one on the main level.
The sign in the window of the home that you can see in the picture above reads something like “security camera in use.”
What will this house ultimately re-sell for?
You can see the prior pictures when it was bank owned here.
Tom Witt of Executive Realty Consultants has the listing. See the current pictures here.
3134 N. Oakley: 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1861 square feet
- Sold in June 2001 for $220,000
- Sold in March 2003 for $390,500
- Sold in April 2006 for $583,000
- Lis pendens foreclosure filed in January 2010
- Bank owned in March 2011
- Listed in June 2011 for $245,000
- Sold in June/July 2011 for $285,000 (I can’t tell which month for sure it sold in)
- Re-listed on Aug 2, 2011 for $419,000
- Reduced
- Currently listed for $399,000
- Taxes of $6767
- Central Air
- 1-car garage
- Bedroom #1: 13×12 (second level)
- Bedroom #2: 13×12 (second level)
- Bedroom #3: 12×10 (main level)
- Living room: 15×12
- Dining room: 19×15
- Kitchen: 13×12
- Family room: 20×15 (lower level)
I don’t see why anyone would pay a $100K premium for some fresh paint and staging, which is the only difference in the house between now and when it last sold. The seller has made not a single improvement in this house.
And I really don’t think a potential lender is going to want to lend anyone more than 80% of June 2011 selling price of $285K. A slight uptick in home sales does not justify a 30% jump in prices in two months.
Looks to me like this flip will flop.
Hilarious that they bought an intact REO for 285k on July 13th, 2011 (per link) and they’re trying to resell for 400k.
This reminds me of the IPO craze of the 90s. It’s not until parasites like this lose their teeth pulling shit like this and are flushed out of the market will we be well on our way to finding a bottom.
“Looks to me like this flip will flop.”
I’d hope so too, Laura. But we’ve seen time and time again an idiot will come along with a high LTV loan in this area and overpay for “new”.
$350. And you know its true. 10% down or less from the buyer.
So HD you think the bottom feeding parasite will profit $65k, or 22.8%/mo, or a 1,076% yield is appropriate?
New buyer will be fha, I have no idea about the current owner. But yes they will profit$$$$$
Leaving aside whether or not this is a good property, it would seem that the previous price we should be looking at is the bubble peak price of $583k, and not the distressed transaction. Isn’t a $180k reduction from the peak fairly reasonable? Or is the current actual (i.e., non-distressed) value of a true comp for this place significantly lower than $400k?
HD, assuming a would-be buyer would actually like to raise one or two kids in this place, wouldn’t a $350k close with 10% down be a good thing (for that buyer)? That gives a family who can scrape together $35k (no small feat) a chance to buy a home. They can get a lender-financed mortgage insurance loan (at around .5% above the rate if they had 20%), then refy in a couple of years once it can appraise to show 20% equity.
“Isn’t a $180k reduction from the peak fairly reasonable? Or is the current actual (i.e., non-distressed) value of a true comp for this place significantly lower than $400k?”
Two schools of thought on this:
1) yes it is very reasonable.
2) No because the 583k place was bought using probably mostly all of the bank’s money by a bozo who has no idea what the intrinsic economic value of things should be. Just like this flipper is hoping to sell to today.
We went through this place when it was REO. It probably goes without saying, but the “upgrades” were all cheaply done builder’s specials, the place was in rough shape in general, and there was a STRONG smell of mold in the front room with no obvious water damage. Also, there were holes in the walls everywhere (hunting for mold?). We had a chat with a neighbor who seemed to think that the previous owner was a developer who would build and live in the place while he built the next one, then sell. There’s a nasty burnt out teardown across the street and a bunch of sketchy looking rentals on the block. Never gave it a second thought.
Not really sure what is going on with this one, I don’t think this area commands $400K for a house. If you read the Redfin agent comments, apparently there are holes in the drywall and some other minor things need to be fixed.
I’d buy this one first
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/4640-N-Leamington-Ave-60630/home/13478148
annony: This monstrosity for $567,000 was financed 90%. There was an 80% first, and a 10% second, and a measly $57,000 down payment. This property closed last month. Think of the mortgage payment on that. Yet people will do it. all the time. This oakley property should sell pretty quick, and it will.
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/4252-N-Lowell-Ave-60641/home/13480727
I don’t know whether or not this will sell for a profit to the “investor” or not but there are numerous examples of this strategy succeeding. There can be a few reasons why it works: 1) original marketing of property sucked and the bank is too stupid to realize that the realtor they are working with sucks 2) the original sale was an inside job 3) investor adds other value – e.g. figures out how to rent the property for a good return (not the case here)
Why is this concept so surprising to everyone?? Everyone knew this is what was going to start happening to foreclosures. In 2008 I kept posting that the foreclosures would be bought by investors who would rehab the properties and sell for a profit. Everyone thought (as usual) that I was an idiot and that no investor would risk his/her money in these “times of uncertainty” etc. – well guess what – I was right (also as usual).
I would feel like an idiot buying a property that was sold for $100k less only a month earlier (regardless of the true value of this home).
The only pertinent stat I needed to know about Illinois I found out last night: over 10% of Illinois mortgages are either 90+ days delinquent or in the process of foreclosure. I was looking at one short sale in particular but am again sidelined. I’m not about to take my chances that is the financial minefield of Illinois housing.
Actually I am surprised how low delinquency rate is. I would have thought it to be in teens if not twenties.
Illinois is only behind Florida, Nevada and New Jersey on this stat. Also unlike Florida & Nevada the trend is not our friend. Very consistent at 10% its as if the banks here make sure they sell a REO from their portfolio first before they foreclose on someone.
That 10% delinquent number is misleading. There are a huge number of properties that don’t have any mortgages – these properties are not considered when calculating this percent (if they were, I bet the delinquent percentage would be much less than 10% ). In addition, the vast majority of these delinquent properties are in areas that nobody on this site would even consider buying. If you take these two factors into consideration, the percent of delinquent properties (compared with all properties out there) in areas that are desirable will likely be much less than 5%.
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/3920-N-Keeler-Ave-60641/home/13457829
Nov 08, 2006 Sold (Public Records) $1,644,500
Aug 23, 2011 Price Changed $999,000
Apr 13, 2011 Price Changed $1,299,000
Apr 12, 2011 Listed (New) $1,490,000
sorry that’s a little backwards
Nov 08, 2006 Sold (Public Records) $1,644,500
Apr 12, 2011 Listed (New) $1,490,000
Apr 13, 2011 Price Changed $1,299,000
Aug 23, 2011 Price Changed $999,000
ok this makes more sense : )
“the vast majority of these delinquent properties are in areas that nobody on this site would even consider buying. If you take these two factors into consideration, the percent of delinquent properties (compared with all properties out there) in areas that are desirable will likely be much less than 5%.”
Agreed. What would happen if we have another colossal 2008 crash as some are predicting? Not only are the banks insolvent again, sovereign debt it also, and the Fed cannot bail out the banks again, lest Main Street start grabbing pitchforks.
This time around, if we get another crash, people are stretched, it could start to impact the GZ & good suburb type owners to a greater degree?
Luigi – totally agree – but that’s not going to happen. There is still a LOT of money out there. Also, election year is upon us – if you look at history – there WON’T be any significant downturn in the economy (actually, things will be a little better – politicians understand this and will do anything to prop up the economy in time for the 2012 election)
HD—Ouch! That Keeler place! Not too surprising though. I have some friends that bought new construction in Old Iriving in 2007, big monstrosity, but frame house and paid close to 900k, looks to be worth about 550 now.
Schools are bad and it’s really just a little too far from everything.
“That 10% delinquent number is misleading. There are a huge number of properties that don’t have any mortgages – these properties are not considered when calculating this percent (if they were, I bet the delinquent percentage would be much less than 10% ).”
I read it again and again, wow!
“Actually I am surprised how low delinquency rate is. I would have thought it to be in teens if not twenties.”
From just eyeballing headlines, one might even think 50-70%.
” Very consistent at 10% its as if the banks here make sure they sell a REO from their portfolio first before they foreclose on someone.”
Wait–are you saying that banks are making payments for 60+ delinquencies to prevent them from becoming 90+ until they sell an REO and only *then* letting the borrower go 90+ delinquent?
Really?
I think the house two blocks east would be much more appealing, its biggest problem is the proximity to Clybourn & Western.
Anecdotally, I see what Clio is saying. Among my financially stable friends there are either significantly paid down mortgages or those who own their homes outright. The problem is that these are not the people who are selling (as Clio has pointed out). I also have a friend who could pay off his note entirely but isn’t sure he’d stay in his place long term and knows he’ll get half what he paid. He has enough “equity” to refi and did but is not interested in paying back ahead. He says if he has to move He’ll mail back the keys but he also has no reason to move.
We recently put a house under contract and moved fast when an estate situation came up that was not a foreclosure or short sale. So sure, there is an appeal to a traditional sale that could (maybe? did for us at least) capture a small premium in this market. I don’t think the premium is as wide as these sellers think it is.
” its biggest problem is the proximity to Clybourn & Western.”
And that it’s on barely 1/2 a lot.
(Ok, assesser sez 2418, so 3/4 a lot, but still, with the angled alley, it would build out like less)
$325 – $340.
“He has enough “equity” to refi and did but is not interested in paying back ahead. He says if he has to move He’ll mail back the keys but he also has no reason to move.”
Huh? He has at least 20% equity, but he’d mail back the keys?
10% is a very high delinquency rate in a historical sense. Coupled with low sales volume, it’s a very good indicator of increasing housing affordability since real estate is priced at the margin.
Luigi, yes, from my understanding yes, no to a short sale but a foreclosure would work. Simply buy the next house outright or secure the mort first.
Anon, he got really lucky with an appraisal a year ago, however a couple identical placed went into foreclosure on his block this year and sold for about 75% his appraisal. Hence the quotes. Can’t refi right now obvs but has a pretty decent rate.
Luigi, ETA, no more “unscathed” than anyone else. His perfect credit wouldn’t be. He’d have to go through foreclosure, not sure of professional ramifications etc.
this doesn’t apply to what, 98% of Chicago’s residential housing, at least outside the Loop?
complaining about prices in a vacuum is indeed tilting at windmills.
people need a roof over their heads. what counts is the cost of buying vs renting, at least as long as Chicago continues to be a jobs hub for the region.
“But clio, as you mentioned, many of these people have big monthly housing bills, and at what point does all the cash flow going out (i.e. $23K RE tax bills, $5000+ mortgage payments, landscaping, cleaning ladies, heat, A/C, etc.) start to hit?
Can you give a scenario when these folks capitulate?”
Clio the only statement of yours that is semi-plausible is there won’t be huge haircuts on the properties the majority on here all seem to want.
Oh and the only greenzone the Fed cares about is Manhattan (south of 96th).
Banks are indeed fvcked and now the tea party reps I so strongly supported can get going with what me and many others who voted for them want: liquidation auctions of insolvent wall street firms.
Noone forced BofA to pay out half its revenues (not profits) in its securities division since 2008 in the form of cash bonuses and outsizes salaries with no claw back provisions. The ol’ street excuse that they have to pay them to remain competitive never held water with me– I’m a white sox fan they need a government bailout so they can have a payroll competitive with the Yankees!
“Noone forced BofA to pay out half its revenues (not profits) in its securities division since 2008 in the form of cash bonuses and outsizes salaries with no claw back provisions. ”
Yep, and all it took was suspending mark-to-market accounting. Was telling you had bad things were for them, they knew they could not recap. Citi recapped in ’91. this time it was too big. Pay it out!!
Too bad some well deserving family didn’t get to buy this from the bank for $285k.
$100k+ is a huge premium to pay for some ass to put an orchid on the countertop and repaint a few walls.
I hate flippers. There, I said it.
how can you be delinquient on a property with no mortage?
how can you be delinquient on a property with no mortage?
special Harvard/UC/Stanford math… way over your head. Accept your inferiority and deal with it.
BAC is in deep doodoo
can’t wait for the next bailout
/sigh
there once was a girl from Nantucket………..
i love how the flippers kept the same ugly window treatments in the living room.
No way BofA gets bailed out as-is. Instead look for a ML spinoff first. Politicians know if Main St hears investment bankers at ML/BAsec are still flying high and need a bailout that’s a toxic vote. then again Barry might have some tarp monies in the cookie jar but he wants to get re-elected too.
I think his latest strategy is to go after wall St hence the blankfien perjury investigation. I know if I was Perez in this economy I’d be doing the same thing cept x10
“there once was a girl from Nantucket………..”
he’s calling you an asshat again…dr. uterine leiomyoma
Oh & so blankfien lawyers up with a close friend of the attorney general. so they go golf it out & that’s how justice works in America 🙁
New home sales are lookin’ hot. Lowest in 5 years. It’s looking like 2011 will be the slowest for new homes on record. amazing stuff here.
Whataya say I lowball this senior exemption home for $400,000?
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/6924-N-Tonty-Ave-60646/home/13592202
“Oh & so blankfien lawyers up with a close friend of the attorney general. so they go golf it out & that’s how justice works in America ”
Not so easy as that, takes a good 7 years (with effort-regardless of who the hell you are) to get that membership at Congressional.
“Whataya say I lowball this senior exemption home for $400,000?”
Very pretty exterior, nice living room.
My philosophy will always be the same as walking up to a girl. If she says no, I’m exactly where I am now. Only upside. Go for it!
I doubt this will go for less than 480K looking at redfin comps but I can very well be wrong.
“My philosophy will always be the same as walking up to a girl. If she says no, I’m exactly where I am now. Only upside. Go for it!”
Not true – and not such good advice for someone like HD – the downside is that it could make you more depressed, more insecure, and more angry. Don’t be stupid – HD – these are intangibles that will ruin your character and personality.
I’m just throwing properties around out here, i’m not making any offers until 2014.
It would sell in a heartbeat at $480,000; its just that there are so many homes listed at such expensive prices, and so, so, so few buyers interested in purchasing at these prices. So it just sits, and sits, like everything else on the market.
“My philosophy will always be the same as walking up to a girl. If she says no, I’m exactly where I am now. Only upside. Go for it!”
Heh.
How about low balling this one HD?
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/6680-N-Sioux-Ave-60646/home/13589762
“Whataya say I lowball this senior exemption home for $400,000?”
If you like it why not? doesn’t cost you anything to make an offer
The fear of rejection is so strong for some, those of us in sales don’t really care and who knows you might give them the incentive to just take the offer and be done with it
” doesn’t cost you anything to make an offer”
yes…it…does – see my comments above.
or this:
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/6520-N-Tahoma-Ave-60646/home/13590964
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/6916-N-Tonty-Ave-60646/home/13592586
This is the house my wife likes. $289k in 1997; $614,500 in 2006 with a large down payment; and now there’s a $399,000 mortgage but the licensed broker (disclosed in description) apparently can’t fathom losing the down payment. Easy come, easy go, 463 days on the market and no bites. I’d offer $450k and tell the dumb broker that he/she’s lucky to walk away without having to bring money to the table. There equity is there, but it’s disappeared at this point. The whole neighborhood is priced at these ridiculous valuations, I find it hilarious. Here I am, sitting on the side lines, paying off debt, saving money, etc, and these homes are languishing. Half of them have senior exemptions too with no mortgages and unfortunately they’re counting on the younger generation to fund their retirement. Ha!
“I’m just throwing properties around out here, i’m not making any offers until 2014.”
Pshaw. Write up an offer for $400k. If they accept it (highly unlikely, as you know), you’ll still have an inspection out if you decide that it’s not perfect.
That’s my advice–regardless of the “decision” to wait 3 years, find houses that appear to be perfect for you, make an offer of what *you* are willing to pay for a “perfect” house of that size in that location, and F’em if they’re insulted. Maybe one sticks and you un-make that “decision” because someoene decided to accpet 1/3 (or whatever) off their asking price.
The Tahoma property has a wierd layout (look at the fridge in the kitchen blocking the doorway!) and the Sioux property belongs in Buffalo Grove. NO really, a buddy of mine parent’s have a home in ‘Cambridge’ that looks just like that.
“Whataya say I lowball this senior exemption home for $400,000?”
you know my stance on lowballing 🙂
well I have to agree no point making offers for places you might be way off. Ain’t like the short old fat broke dude has a chance with a super model.
I like your advice, you’re right, make offers and get rejected, until I get blacklisted from the 4 realtors who handle forest glen transactions! I’m not looking to waste anyone’s time but my own and those who read cribchatter and look at real estate pron instead of working.
“Ain’t like the short old fat broke dude has a chance with a super model.”
exactly. except i’m not short or fat but super models smoke cigarettes and snort heron and that’s a turn off.
HD – your attitude is irritating and maddening – but is absolutely 100% the attitude of the younger generation – you feel so fucking entitled to a house that you want at a price you want – and everyone should bend over to please you. Why the fuck should a person lower price just bc they don’t have a mortgage ?!! Because King HD wants it – well fuck you. It is the same as telling a physically beautiful person that he/she should have sex with everyone because these other people “want it”. How stupid and selfish – and the kicker is that not only do you NOT realize it, but you totally are feeling sorry for yourself. Don’t be surprised if your wife realizes you are a whiny pathetic loser and leaves you.
I don’t know about layout. I am sure you are right, but the fridge issue is just because they bought too big of a fridge for the space.
” I’d offer $450k and tell the dumb broker that he/she’s lucky to walk away without having to bring money to the table.”
Offer $450k and hold the comments. When they don’t respond, don’t call to follow-up, just fax the offer in again. Repeat until they actually say no. If nothing else, you’ll be aiding price discovery that will help you in 2014.
homedelete, those 4 forest glen brokers will get hungry eventually
dog grooming/daycare is a hell of a competitive business these days
(honest to god I know a mortgage guy that started his own dog daycare business after the crash)
I just love the attempt by the seller to make this look lived in – they even threw in two coffee mugs on the counter.
Clio… Walk up to 100 really hot girls, have a 2% hit rate, you walk down the street happy as a sailor on shore leave and looking like a f’n hero. Truth is you were a complete failure!
The rest of the MLS in 60646 looks like it should be in the suburbs, or, it’s just hideously overpriced at like $385 psf which is a joke unto itself, but here’s one final home I like
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/6800-N-Wildwood-Ave-60646/home/13593034
although like architect says, there is an element of the ‘living large in the basement’ thing going on in all these houses. hell, i’d forego the formal living/dining room – which is an antiquated concept – and make the basement the rec room (pool table, kids toys, teenager hangout) and put the tv in the living room, nice big sofa, big TV, off the kitchen. no living large in the basement for me.
HD, the house your wife likes is very nice especially the exterior. If her taste in man is as good as her taste in homes, I am sure you are not short or fat : )
As for models, most are very clean, it is just that the ones that stray are the ones you hear about in the news. Most are not party girls as some think, but go to bed early, stay hydrated, avoid excess sun, eat well and exercise.
One problem with the Keeler place: They forgot to put the flat screen over the fireplace in the dining room. I’m sure that can easily be installed, though. 🙂
“(honest to god I know a mortgage guy that started his own dog daycare business after the crash)”
I met a guy who was a broker making six figures for a good part of last decade – now, i swear to god – he’s chasing fowl off corporate grounds with a golf cart. $12.00 an hour too.
“It is the same as telling a physically beautiful person that he/she should have sex with everyone because these other people “want it”.”
It’s only an apt comparison if no beautiful people actually “want it.”
Clio why are you being so mean about his relationship with his wife. You can make your point without saying such things. Also it might be his wife who wants the fancier places and HD is being a good husband and feels like he should provide her with what she likes. I think it is just matter of time and they would find somewhere they would love and be very happy. I am betting on that.
G – don’t talk about things you don’t understand.
I don’t think the flippers got the memo that people aren’t willing to pay that kind of premium to buy conventional anymore. I’m seeing more and more people who are getting into buying a foreclosure, as the banks make the process more accessible to the man on the street.
clio said something mean about my wife? I didn’t even notice, I always skip over his posts.
miumiu – there is a backstory that started before you joined this site… I don’t want to bring it up – so I’ll drop it.
“Don’t be surprised if your wife realizes you are a whiny pathetic loser and leaves you.”
He speaks from experience, moomoo. Just not HD’s experience.
“Clio why are you being so mean about his relationship with his wife.”
what else would a asshat have to say?
you think you would get something genuine? or helpful?
its just his asshatness showing why he is a full on asshat and holds the crown of asshatdom.
“G – don’t talk about things you don’t understand.”
If you’d only take your own advice, you’d have nothing to post to this RE blog.
“homedelete, those 4 forest glen brokers will get hungry eventually”
speaking of brokers that switch jobs, one of the 4 forest glenn brokers threw her hat into the alderman ring.
now this is entertainment
“I like your advice, you’re right, make offers and get rejected, until…”
Tft had a nice little hidden take away in his story. About how guys can benefit in illiquid markets. You complain about the other side, when you should be following the example.
btw.. miu.. short,fat, but famous dad seems to work out ok…
http://revistaquem.globo.com/Revista/Quem/0,,EMI256202-9531,00.html
politics does indeed pay
HD-
Why not just submit any lowball offers directly thru the listing agent?
1) You won’t waste a buyer’s agent’s time
2) It’s the listing agent’s JOB to show you the house
3) Many Realtors(R) are whores, and will sell their client down the river for a double commission. Just put that tasty conflict of interest in front of them and see how eager they are to serve their own self interests.
“Why not just submit any lowball offers directly thru the listing agent?”
Because his nuts fit in one of those lil airplane packs. 🙂
“You won’t waste a buyer’s agent’s time”
Or instead of a formal offer your guy can just call up the other dude and say “hey man I got someone who wants to offer 400k, is that something that would work for your client”
If that’s considered time wasting then fuck… stop being so goddamn fuckin polite.
real estate agents are incredibly busy – you guys would be surprised at the number of phone calls that agents get EVERY day – you would be even more surprised at how idiotic/psychotic/moronic 99.9999% of the callers are – this is where the “attitude” of agents comes from… I could tell you stories…..
“Or instead of a formal offer your guy can just call up the other dude and say “hey man I got someone who wants to offer 400k, is that something that would work for your client””
I’ve tried that in the past and it rarely works.
“I’ve tried that in the past and it rarely works.”
Well yea, because the offer is shit, but this way you don’t waste time with a formal offer. Enables you to more quickly move on.
It rarely works because everyone wants an offer in writing. Most people won’t even entertain a verbal offer even if the price is good.
A verbal offer/inquiry is BS. Everyone knows it.
“Enables you to more quickly move on.”
Move on to what?: the next BS verbal offer/tire kicking exercise.
What’s so F*ing hard about faxing or emailing a real offer!?
Again, you guys don’t understand the crap that agents go through. There are SO many time-burglars out there and agents learn VERY QUICKLY who to coddle, and who to ignore. HD is right – he will be blacklisted from agents if he continues to lowball – seriously, I know agents who won’t even return calls from people who are habitual “lookie-lous”.
and if you noticed, most properties close within 90% of listing price. Once in a while you see an 88% of list, and every so often a more than list price if it was underpriced to ignite a bidding war.
So again, it’s the slow wait for the seller to lower the price to the range where you can bid 10% off list.
The feeling among realtors is extremely, and I mean extremely, anti-lowball. buyers agents will write them because they hope that some day they’ll get a commission when it finally goes through, but sellers agents hate them. they hate presenting them to clients, they hate having to respond to them, they hate the fact they have to deal with it. They hate everything about them and they’ll blacklist buyers agents who write too many offers.
“Chris M on August 23rd, 2011 at 10:58 am
It rarely works because everyone wants an offer in writing. Most people won’t even entertain a verbal offer even if the price is good.”
“It rarely works because everyone wants an offer in writing. Most people won’t even entertain a verbal offer even if the price is good.”
I’m not taking about an offer, I’m talking about finding out whether the other person is willing to even entertain a potential shit offer like that.
And that’s precisely what I did in my recent purchase, except over email with a big “THIS IS NOT AN OFFER” disclaimer. Seller said she was cool with the amount and I then had lawyer do the paperwork. YMMV, maybe I just got lucky… (and my offer was a decent one anyways)
HD, no offense or anything. But your wife has VERY expensive taste!
Which is so stupid in my opinion, I’ve said this before, the custom and practice is for sellers to chase the market down and hold out for that one buyer who will pay as close to top dollar as possible. It can take years sometimes. This is the case in markets where there are a mix of medium and high priced properties. The lower priced properties, of which there are few, sell quickly after multiple bids from buyers with 3.5% to 10% down; and the higher priced properties languish, and everyone in a while someone comes along with the 20% down on a $500k property, while the rest just sit and eventually go off the market. Realtors have access to the comps, they’re job is to sell properties and get them sold. Listing at some high price where there is tough competition and few buyers does a seller a disservice.
“yes your house is a $650,000 house. however, in today’s market, there have only been 2 homes in your neighborhood that have hold over $650,000, and they were far nicer than yours, and there have been 30 homes that have sold for less than $500,000. Buyers who want to buy pay less than $500k, because according to debt to income ratio of the $120k median household income of this neighborhood, that price range is the ‘sweet spot’. If you price less than $500k, yes, you are not gettnig top dollar, but your house will actually sell, and quickly too. NO, I will not keep the property on the market for 2 years with $10,000 price reductions every 90 days. OK then, go find another realtor.”
Bob 2 congrats! It’s not supposed to work often. It’s a strategy. Like said above. Only takes 1.
One of the JP’s laid it out perfectly. Pick a bldg, create a value grid, form letter, slip one under every door. One never knows how bad someone needs to get out, there is always one. When I want to move I pretty much hit first bid and move on… That’s all you are looking for. Well done and good luck!
Yeah, brokers are so busy, waiting tables? Cause it definitely ain’t showin in the sales numbers.
Oh 2 pm on a Tuesday.. gotta go.. X-Box time.
Realtors need a change in culture. This attitude that 11% or more off list is a ‘lowball’ is absurd. Yes, it requires a difficult conversation with their client about the value and offers on their home even though they have an emotional attachment. hoever, I have conversations with people all the time, very difficult conversations, I am the bearer of bad news, nearly always about topics far more serious then the value of a piece of real estate.
SO let them go hungry.
HD – you are not a realtor and have no idea the stress of the job. You guys think we just sit here and answer a few calls, go to lunches and show up for closing for our 100k check. Honestly, agents get dozens of calls everyday and the vast vast majority are from complete weirdos – the rest are from morons who don’t have a pot to piss in. Even other agents are crazy with their calls – I really should write a book at the outrageous requests, questions that we get. It is unbelievable.
Yawn. “North Center”…
G and Clio. More inane arguments and time wasted in the day. At least Clio’s excuse is he is self employed.
In other news, how about a premium *not* to live close to the El?
http://triblocal.com/wilmette-kenilworth/2011/08/23/two-charged-with-burglary-in-wilmette-after-homes-near-cta-station-targeted/
“real estate agents are incredibly busy – you guys would be surprised at the number of phone calls that agents get EVERY day – you would be even more surprised at how idiotic/psychotic/moronic 99.9999% of the callers are – this is where the “attitude” of agents comes from… I could tell you stories”
proof again you have stake in the game and all your “opinions” are biased towards your end goal. man up and admit your game/scheme
yes you get the monthly asshat award
Groove – I don’t need to convince the losers on cribchatter of anything in order to make my life good. It is an exercise in futility (for that goal). My presence here is to provide the non-posters, non-regulars a more realistic and balanced (and true) perspective of what chicago real estate it all about.
“nearly always about topics far more serious then the value of a piece of real estate”
I’d actually bet that losing substantially all your net worth in a real estate trade because you were trying to provide your family a nice comfortable life is more serious than 95% of the topics you deal with as a chancery lawyer.
I’m confused…I thought clio used to ridicule agents/brokers. Now he’s one himself?
I’m a broker and business for me is very slow. But it is a side gig for me and just extra income.
“man up”
Groove.. probably ain’t a ‘he’ either.
“HD – you are not a realtor and have no idea the stress of the job. You guys think we just sit here and answer a few calls, go to lunches and show up for closing for our 100k check. ”
wait your a realtor/agent and a doctor? and your farm when you were pimping it here didnt you by law (or at least ethics) need to give a disclaimer about these facts.
i guess asshats can complain about other peoples ethics and morals but the asshat himself cant follow his own asshat words.
“and your farm when you were pimping it here didnt you by law (or at least ethics) need to give a disclaimer about these facts.”
huh? – ok people – this is the perfect example of what a public education buys. U. of I. doesn’t look so good now, does it?
““man up”
Groove.. probably ain’t a ‘he’ either.”
Groove has a sponsorship deal with Miller Lite; don’t mess it up by pointing it out like that, my man.
(yes, I relaize you are likely blissfully unaware of the current Lite advertising slogan)
“My presence here is to provide the non-posters, non-regulars a more realistic and balanced (and true) perspective of what chicago real estate it all about”
of all the different clio employee’s posting under the clio account. you by far have done the worst disservice to the clio business model.
not only are you a hired shill you fall under the asshat umbrella of the clio moniker
I’d bet that your staff makes fun of you behind your back on a daily basis because you repeatedly prove yourself to be a bumbling idiot.
“JMM on August 23rd, 2011 at 11:31 am
“nearly always about topics far more serious then the value of a piece of real estate”
I’d actually bet that losing substantially all your net worth in a real estate trade because you were trying to provide your family a nice comfortable life is more serious than 95% of the topics you deal with as a chancery lawyer.”
Clio, have the beautiful people been wronging you again?
“It is the same as telling a physically beautiful person that he/she should have sex with everyone because these other people “want it”.”
“yes, I relaize you are likely blissfully unaware”
With me, you can just copy and paste that about pretty much everything! lol
clio-
Did you just out yourself as a Realtor (R)?
“you are not a realtor and have no idea the stress of the job. You guys think we just sit here and answer a few calls”
I though you were a big deal doctor or something like that?
Jesus, that explains it ALL!
clio-
I can see you now! A fresh-faced junior Realtor (R) in a suburban office park in Lisle, or some other horrid suburb!
TB – I wear many many hats – on this blog, I am a real estate person – and everything I say is 100% true – (and verifiable). Just ask Sabrina…..
clio- no one is sure who sabrina really is so asking her to vouch for you isn’t good enough, Doc.
“real estate agents are incredibly busy”
doing what? Not returning phone calls? working their real 9-5? You are such a liar!
The complete collapse of north side pricing is inevitable.
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/3633-N-Springfield-Ave-60618/home/13456406
come on people, you know Clio is Chaz Walters.
OK, even if agents aren’t busy – that is no excuse to waste their time. Real estate tends to bring out a lot of weirdos. I have received notices about calls that are so bizarre. Here are a couple of examples:
1. One of my brokers has a listing in Hinsdale for a 5/5 for 1.9 million. He got a call last week from someone who actually thought it was 190k and was insisting that we take the full price offer of 190k – and then this weirdo threatened to sue us for not presenting the offer because she was black!!!
2. We have a listing for a rental in Oak Lawn and someone actually called and asked if they could pay in food stamps!!!
3. On my farm listing, there were a lot of weirdos. One potential buyer saw the property 7 (SEVEN) times – when my broker pressured him to make an offer, he broke down and told us that he was actually the previous owner whom the bank foreclosed upon and admitted that whenever he felt “blue” he would call to see the place to remember the “good times”!!!!
Seriously, you can’t make up this shit – there are even more stories.
wow HD, see had you only put in an offer on that one… loads of potential with that place!
Take another look at the graph in your link.
“The complete collapse of north side pricing is inevitable.”
“come on people, you know Clio is Chaz Walters”
Clio isn’t Chaz, but methinks he has the hots for him. 😉
uhhh valasko – weren’t you the one that got a chubby when you saw me in my car on state street?
Clio.. that last post, was your best post in CC history.
most “trollish” at least…
Sorry clio….. I was checking out Chaz who was riding shotgun 😉
“I’d bet that your staff makes fun of you behind your back on a daily basis because you repeatedly prove yourself to be a bumbling idiot. ”
He just berates them with personal attacks, just like he does when he has repeatedly been proven to be a bloviating fool here.
Had a professor who made a hobby out of lowballing on real estate. He even got lucky a couple times. Thing is to find old folks who are nearing the OFH time who might not be on the best terms with their offspring. That demographic realizes time is far greater than money for them. Oh yeah and I doubt the properties were turnkey up to GZ anal standards too.
well today is a great day and its not even over.
1. Dr. Asshat (clio) outed himself as a TROLL/SHILL
2. Ze is high and playing x-box
3. we all agree if you are going to be a RE agent your name should be Chaz
4. Clio proves over and over his tittle of Asshat
5. clio also provides us more reasons he/she/all of them are biased and his words are just to shill and troll.
Groove – you forgot #7 – groove never learned proper English and is a true testament to public education in Illinois.
groove you pay way too much attention. like HD said, skip his posts if they are more than one line. it’s like jerry springer or real houswives of — change the channel before you’re sucked in and miserable.
“Groove – you forgot #7 – groove never learned proper English and is a true testament to public education in Illinois.”
ignoring the facts (even if poorly written) just makes the icing on the cake taste so much better.
you are a paid shill and thats all that needs to be said.
“you are a paid shill and thats all that needs to be said.”
who exactly is paying me?!! (that’s one line – so don’t ignore)
oh right, nobody is paying you because you haven’t closed a deal in forever so all you do is surf the web and troll all day
loser!
sonies, that is not a very nice thing to say. A lot of people are out of work – to insult these poor folk is not very endearing. Also, take a look at how much YOU post all day – obviously YOUR job is not very challenging.
oh its challenging, I’m just extremely efficient so I have brief moments inbetween things I need to do to post here
“Also, take a look at how much YOU post all day – obviously YOUR job is not very challenging.”
Pot meet Kettle 🙂
valasko – butt out – go look at some pictures of chaz
Probably your ma who works at or owns a RE brokerage house. The fanciful claims you make on here simply aren’t believable.
you’re not an MD
you did not make a small fortune flipping RE in Boston in 1990s
you do not drive a red lambo
you do not own RE all over town
you were and are sent here to act like a Mr ridiculous asshat so if a potential buyer or seller mentions this site to their realtwhore we can all be lumped together as ridiculous nobodies and immediately dismissed so the transaction can move forward.
unsuspecting lemming buyer: “but there is this website called cribchatter..”
Suzanne: have you seen that ridiculously funny site too? pay no heed to them (or the FACTS they POST), I’ve researched this.
Can you send me some of your favorite pics of him? 🙂
“Can you send me some of your favorite pics of him?”
For $14.99 plus S&H, you can have the entire 3 DVD set of “Chaz Gone Wild”.. but wait, there’s more!!! If you act now. For Free!! The Chaz inflatable doll that you can pump, or blow up.
Bob –
I AM an MD
I DID make a small fortune flipping real estate in Boston
I DO have a lamborghini (but it is rosso vik – not red)
I DO own real estate all over town
Sorry to disappoint you – not everyone is a loser. That is what I have been trying to explain – Chicago is FULL of people with a LOT of money – they are not represented on this site. I feel like I have to be their collective voice.
Didn’t clio alway say that he had a brokerage firm besides his medial practice. I am not sure why everyone is so excited he is outing himself. Not saying it is necessarily true but I don’t see any new info.
“Didn’t clio alway say that he had a brokerage firm besides his medial practice. I am not sure why everyone is so excited he is outing himself. Not saying it is necessarily true but I don’t see any new info.”
Yes miumiu, this is old news….. you know what they say….. everyone hates a winner!
clio,
your an unethical shill and troll, your credibility on here is shot and your agenda has been brought to light for everyone to see.
you were never a man of your word, proved by G. the fact your still trying to post here after all the above is made even more sad by mini attacks at QUALITY cribchatter contributors.
oh yeah forgot…Clio:
you did not goto Harvard
you did not go to stanford
you did not goto uchicago
you did not goto upenn
“and everything I say is 100% true – (and verifiable). Just ask Sabrina…..”
Clio, that is a verifiable lie.
clio on February 24th, 2011 at 5:54 pm
“G – I accept your bet”
BTW, clio, are you claiming to have a role in managing “your” brokerage business?
Bob,
I DID go to UChicago
I DID go to Harvard
I DID go to Stanford
but I never said I went to U Penn
“BTW, clio, are you claiming to have a role in managing “your” brokerage business?”
Of course… what is your non-sensical point?
“Of course… what is your non-sensical point?”
I hesitate to get in the middle, but I suspect a dime might be about to drop to a number in the 217.
“I DID go to UChicago
I DID go to Harvard
I DID go to Stanford”
Nah, You are at best a 540 Math SAT person. And that’s with a Kaplan course or two.
anon – huh? wtf does that even mean?
ze – perfect math sat score
3633 N Springfield = very moldy basement. Check out the YouTube video. Looks like there was a flood, and the damage was never fixed. Awesome yard, but the taxes are sure to go up. No regrets for this one, HD.
“Didn’t clio alway say that he had a brokerage firm besides his medial practice. I am not sure why everyone is so excited he is outing himself. Not saying it is necessarily true but I don’t see any new info.”
He also runs his own construction company. Except he thinks it costs 400k to 1mil to build a 2500 sq ft house.
“Except he thinks it costs 400k to 1mil to build a 2500 sq ft house.”
C’mon, we all *know* that the floor for a 2500 sf SFH of even passable quality is $500k–that it is outright *impossible* to build in the city of Chicago, without making unacceptable compromises, for much less than $200 psf. Our betters are always telling us so.
3,000 sq ft on a triple lot on the north side walking distance from the el and a short drive to the highway seems like a steal to me. The place needs central AC and some work, and a new kitchen, but for someone who has the money, and doesn’t care about schools, that’s a pretty decent deal in my opinion. Mold can be remediated, basements flood, that’s what they do. this is only a little outside the green zone and it would cost 4x as much there.
“whatthewhat on August 23rd, 2011 at 4:48 pm
3633 N Springfield = very moldy basement. Check out the YouTube video. Looks like there was a flood, and the damage was never fixed. Awesome yard, but the taxes are sure to go up. No regrets for this one, HD.”
by not care about schools i mean reilly; viator and applying for magnets are always an option.
HD the old lazy owners never even bothered to finish the attic yet they pocketed over 400k from that place.
Look at the listing history some real dumbasses there:
Listed for 700k on 6/15 cut to 500k a day later LMAO, cut to 475k on 6/27 then a monkey gets it for 408k.
How much did they pay for that place 175k in 1995? Dunno but the seller used a trust in ’02 so can’t find too much info.
At some point in the not too distant future people with no concept of money or the value of things are going to come to an understanding that four hundred thousand dollars is a hell of a lot of money. I don’t think we’re quite there yet.
We come one baby step closer though on 10/1 when the FHA limit falls to 365,700 from 410,000.
Of course the shills are howling:
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:ZgzHCfl6J0MJ:www.chicagorealestatedaily.com/article/20110630/CRED0701/110639989/fha-loan-limit-change-threatens-to-sap-housing-prices+fha+limit+to+fall+chicago&cd=7&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&source=www.google.com
“At some point in the not too distant future people with no concept of money…. are going to come to an understanding that four hundred thousand dollars is a hell of a lot of money”
Or very little money.
Or actually price kind of appropriately for a 3,000 sq ft triple lot walking distance from the el.
“C’mon, we all *know* that the floor for a 2500 sf SFH of even passable quality is $500k–that it is outright *impossible* to build in the city of Chicago, without making unacceptable compromises, for much less than $200 psf. Our betters are always telling us so.”
anon, are you being sarcastic or serious? Because I am serious – in the city of chicago, you will NOT find someone to provide a finished custom home for less than 150/sqft – no way. I would bet anyone…;
“Or actually price kind of appropriately for a 3,000 sq ft triple lot walking distance from the el.”
So you’re willing to justify the valuation given either it’s extra lots or walking distance to el?
Live in Oak Park or Wilmette near a park and the train. Or live in the burbs with real space. But sounds like you’re trying to fit round pegs into square holes with HD’s latest iteration of KRaZy KRiTeRiA!
how much then bob. HOw much for a triple lot in the villa with a 3,000 sq ft home. we don’t live in cleveland. or wheeling west virginia.
I dunno the neighborhood, but statistically I would guess they overpaid by about 100k, assuming a total rehab/remediation costs 100k. This house is nine times the median family income for the zip code, using 1999 data*.
http://www.brainyzip.com/economic/60/economic_60618.html
10% of households in zipcode made over 100k in 1999. I think 1999 economic data is sufficient for comparison as a thumb in the wind indicator as there are actually as many net jobs today as 1999 (perhaps fewer) and aggregate wages are around those levels.
Then again interest rates were 7% in 1999, they’re 4.25% today. Maybe the price is justified given the extra lots: those are things I wouldn’t spend a huge premium on.
HD – I know you like Forest Glen – so here is a house in “forest glen” – it is absolutely the cheapest house in the subdivision. Sure it is only a 1 bedroom, but you can tear it down and build a new house (you know, for 100k – which is what everyone here seems to think).
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Oak-Brook/505-Abbeywood-Ct-60523/home/18087337
Bob, the villa is a unique historical little neighborhood with big lots, near the addison el stop. It’s a unique little corner of Chicago. YOu know of anyone that Chicago is block by block and these particular blocks can command a premium. I’m just saying I think it was a pretty good price, and I also like that it sold for 15% off ask pretty quickly. I discussed earlier the 10% off list rule, only to see this property go for 15% off list.
clio – what’s the point of living in Oak Brook if your kids have to go to school with the poors who live in elmhurst?
HD – it WAS a good price – look at what is going under contract in the suburbs – then reconsider your city valuation:
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Oak-Brook/38-Sheffield-Ln-60523/home/18087579
Clio:
Who CARES about Oak Brook? Seriously. At least if you were linking to Oak Park or Evanston it might be relevant to the conversation.
It might as well be Elgin, for goodness sakes.
clio that first house was hilarious. A 420k one bedroom house. LOL get your FHA loan app in now to beat the deadline!
Maybe you’ve been tipping your caddy a bit too much. Speaking of overtipping…
Just today I saw my second pizza delivery driver in a luxury car in west lakeview (this one was a ~5yo Lexus ES350, but well maintained, much like the white Acura TL pizza delivery driver I see from time to time). But in this economy I can’t tell if it’s idiots that live in the neighborhood with too much money throwing tips at the pizza guy or execs moonlighting to get those 529 plans back above water! 😀
Bob 27 what the hell happened to Bobs 3-26? You have a buffalo bill style basement & keeping them in the well?
Clio, that Oak Brook property is quite nice for the price. And, while my initial impulse is to point out how ridiculously far away Oak Brook is (and it is), in looking at the map, it appears that it’s only about half way to Naperville. I realize that by typing the N-word julianna will appear to defend its many virtues, but HOLY COW is Naperville far away.
Sabrina, what a fucking ignorant comment. You should know better. This is your site – you can’t make comments like that and maintain any semblance of credibility.
HD 3633 springfield is awesome, at least from the pictures. It probably needs a lot of work….are you feeling like you let your dream castle slip through your fingers?
@Bob, i have no idea,$200K in 1995 is what in today’s dollars?
Sabrina, let me explain myself:
Saying Oak Brook is irrelevant to the conversation is so stupid and myopic that it shows everyone you don’t have a clue how real estate works. There are thousands of people grappling with the decision of whether to buy a house in the city and send their kids to private school or buy a house in a suburb that already has award winning schools (better than most private schools) – in this way, Oak Brook – as well as many other nice suburbs are COMPLETELY relevant. Oak Park and Evanston (which you think to seem are “relevant” good comparisons) are NOT good comparisons -both are very similar to many neighborhoods you showcase here.
Saying Oak Brook and Elgin are the same is as ignorant as saying East Lake Shore Drive and Chatham are the same. Ignorance of the real estate market is no excuse for posting such irresponsible and stupid comments. Honestly, you are showing your intolerance, immaturity, and stupidity –
It’s nice to be far from riff-raff, high taxes, overpaid city workers, graft, corruption, and more taxes, along with the cliques who commnet on here. Yes, I am beingsarcastic, but while I grew up in city, it’s a nice place to visit, but lived there long enough. The world doesnt revolve around Piper’s Alley.
anonny – look at the map again – Oak Brook is the closest “nice” suburb to downtown chicago – draw the circle on the map and see what else falls into it.
“Oak Park and Evanston (which you think to seem are “relevant” good comparisons) are NOT good comparisons -both are very similar to many neighborhoods you showcase here.”
That’s the WHOLE point. That’s why you use them as comparisons.
A 30 year old couple looking to buy a home in Old Irving Park or North Center isn’t going to be, “gee, let’s look in Oak Brook instead!”
Oak Brook might as well be Elgin or Homewood Flossmoor to them. (By the way- does ANYONE under the age of, say, 40, ever buy in Oak Brook??? Gary could tell us. But I digress…)
BUT- they might say, “gee the schools aren’t very good here. Maybe we should look in Oak Park and Evanston and see what we get for our money”
So- putting a link comparing a Chicago property to those suburbs makes more sense (or Park Ridge- if you’re looking in Edison/Oriole Park etc.)
A million Oak Brook home is completely irrelevant. (and I find it amusing that you keep linking to properties there when Oak Brook’s real estate market is just getting crushed right now. Worse than many city neighborhoods, actually.)
The oak brook house is a nasty disgusting eclectic mix of old world style and eastern european discrimination. I’m not sure what to make of that mess.
“And, while my initial impulse is to point out how ridiculously far away Oak Brook is (and it is), in looking at the map, it appears that it’s only about half way to Naperville. I realize that by typing the N-word julianna will appear to defend its many virtues, but HOLY COW is Naperville far away.”
That’s why Naperville is its own “big” city Anonny. It was founded around the same time as Chicago in 1831 (and, as a “city” probably was ahead of Chicago.) It NEVER was a suburb. It was its own city in its own right.
I’ll tell you this: plenty of north center/OIP/lakeview buyers look to the northwest suburbs when it’s time to buy. they LOVE mt prospect, arlington heights, prospect heights, palatine, inverness, barrington, etc.
clio’s pissed because sales volume is way down this month and he feels a little pinched financially.
Today was a nasty day on this blog.
“A 30 year old couple looking to buy a home in Old Irving Park or North Center isn’t going to be, “gee, let’s look in Oak Brook instead!”
Fair enough – I agree with you Sabrina. This was the wrong thread to post that oak brook house. Then the question becomes: why are 30 year olds looking to buy in these areas? Why don’t they wait 10 years and THEN move to Hinsdale, Winnetka, naperville, or “better” areas in chicago? Honestly, if I was 30 and had a young child and could afford 300-400k now – I would absolutely rent for 10 years and then re-assess. I would not be buying a house in any of these fringe areas of chicago or fringe suburbs – WAY too much uncertainty in these areas.
“@Bob, i have no idea,$200K in 1995 is what in today’s dollars?”
Completely depends about what index and what asset class/commodity/item you’re using.
The whole notion of generalized inflation is laughable. People are paid in (gasp!) nominal dollars. And aggregate wages are in (gasp!) nominal dollars.
200K wages in 1995 are probably 225k in wages today (wages went up between 1995-2000 and taxes went down). 200k in assets depends on what you were in, entirely.
Nominal wages went up between 2000-2007, too, Icarus. For most people those real wage gains have likely been given back.
Its why I like to look at aggregate wage movements over a period of time when figuring out what people in a community can realistically afford–we are talking about a community so that is more relevant.
(So long as said community is economically diversified. If not its not as valid. That neighborhood appeared economically diversified.)
“Honestly, if I was 30 and had a young child and could afford 300-400k now – I would absolutely rent for 10 years and then re-assess. I would not be buying a house in any of these fringe areas of chicago or fringe suburbs – WAY too much uncertainty in these areas.”
Well, for families that have young children they want to make a decision about where to live long-term before the child starts school. That aside, you’re absolutely right that for people who are 30 and childless there’s no reason to buy in those areas, and that renting provides more flexibility and insulation from downside risk. I continue to believe we’re going to see a shift towards renting in the rent/buy equation for a couple decades.
sad – it doesn’t matter whether they have children or not – you can still rent in good suburban school districts for much cheaper than buying a crappy house in a crappy fringe area in chicago.
See Bob, You are so close to me. 1 step away. Wages don’t blink. Price of things you buy higher(energy, food, base raw materials), purchasing power getting ruined. Problem is, like I told you months ago, that you can’t see further than the walls of your box. 🙂
“See Bob, You are so close to me. 1 step away. Wages don’t blink. Price of things you buy higher(energy, food, base raw materials), purchasing power getting ruined. ”
No. Significant deflationary pressure on businesses because while aggregate wages might be back to 1997 levels, the distribution is skewed. Those employed in their field are generally doing better (some worse but all in all probably earning 20-30% more in nominal wages when averaged out), but many are unemployed. As the first 50k or so of income is spent all on basic living expenses that income has the most velocity on the economy. In other words the distribution does not favor inflationary pressure on prices.
Lets not forget areas with historically high housing costs well those are getting hit hard as well.
My income has gone up ~3-4%/yr nominal since 2007. My monthly savings 50%+ (80% of this due to more favorable economic environment for that, 20% due to debt retirement). Time on bench has also went up significantly though (washes out a lot of that increased savings).
I look around and I see deflation in all things except commodities that are a necessity (oil, gas). Companies are trying to be smart about it though and only offer the loss-leaders/zero margin deals to consumers paying attention.
One day businesses large & small might wake up and realize that increased or maintained revenues at the expense of profits is stupid. But I am telling you it hasn’t happened yet. I’ve fleeced more than one small business owner on groupon type deals. (Imagine getting a $25-30 meal for $6? well of course I’m gonna buy 20 of them if you aren’t savvy enough to put a limit per customer on em 8D )
Oh yeah one thing I don’t see deflation in is education expenses. But we know uncle sam is heavily involved in that as well. I don’t deal with healthcare but I imagine it’s similar.
bob deflation is so 2008-2009, its not happening now
average wages are also growing too
What about median wages? A rising tide lifts the top 1% of boats!
its no surprise that low-balling would be opposed by someone whose Oak Brook neighbor recently sold for 40% less than original ask:
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Oak-Brook/10-Hunt-Club-Ln-60523/home/18087497
Wojo – that person got the deal of the century for that place. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that the property will soon (by 2015) be worth 2-2.4 million. In the meantime, the family will have a great time on that resort type place!!
“average wages are also growing too”
Has no bearing on inflation. Average wages are only growing because their base was so terrible to begin with. So what the ~80% with jobs are earning slightly more than they were: the distribution of wages is little changed. The velocity of spending only increases significantly when someone goes from unemployed to employed as that first 30-50k are the living expenses (or more depending on lifestyle).
GDP is growing under 2%, industrial production indices just took a sh_t in August I guess when people realized the Keynesian govt spending orgy cannot go on forever.
I remember talking to a trader at a bar in early 2009 and asking about inflation and when we’d see it as back then I thought similarly. He said it could take around six months but definitely by the end of that year.
Nope. Still not yet. The Fed is powerless to induce inflation. All they can do is subsidize the banksters, but we all know even that won’t be enough to stop their insolvency in many cases.
Only solid economic stat is capacity utilization. That seems to be rebounding quite solidly, something to watch.
Bob – honest question – how much sleep do you get per night? You post all night and all day. How do you do it?
Bob, That’s part of the problem. Never before has the distribution of wealth ever been changing so much. And intelligently, the Chinese are changing their concentration risk to the U.S. They are not waiting, they are building and buying everywhere else.
I’ll say again and again. Things are accelerating right now. One of your boxes is just wrapped too tightly in Red, White, and Blue.
The 3.6% rise in vehicle population was the largest percentage increase since 2000, while the 35.6 million year-to-year unit increase was the second-biggest increase in overall volume ever.
India’s vehicle population underwent the second-largest growth rate, up 8.9%
Brazil experienced the second largest volume increase after China, with 2.5 million additional vehicle registrations
If China had the U.S. car to owner ratio, they need 1 billion more cars.
BRIC is what, 3 BILLION people?
You are about to see the largest global growth ever. America, will be nice to have on board, but it is not necessary.
ya know bob, ask any rich guy, who married a poorer girl, how long it takes for her to learn how much she likes expensive shit.
too many people, up there, feel entitled to stuff without working for it. It’s the possible outcome of when they’re not able to have it that scares me.
It doesn’t matter. We have grain here and China can and will expand capacity to meet its soaring demand.
We’re going through a deflationary spiral here. No hyperinflation in the cards. I could care less about events on the other side of the world unless they somehow impact me. Aside from gas prices (minor impact) they don’t.
no.. Hyperimflation it won’t be.
2-3 percent a year beyond wage growth is a lot of damage over a decade or two.
Everything else is worse than i expected. You actually have a pretty lil ribbon around your box.
Well guess what: that inflation ain’t gonna apply to housing.
And if the Fed has to raise rates to combat it (they likely won’t) housing is even deader.
“Well guess what: that inflation ain’t gonna apply to housing.”
For now I agree. New build costs and costs of replacement will go up though.
“I could care less about events on the other side of the world unless they somehow impact me.”
They will.
“anonny – look at the map again – Oak Brook is the closest “nice” suburb to downtown chicago – draw the circle on the map and see what else falls into it”
absolute undeniable shilling, geez cant you stop it already. this is a chicago blog stop selling your snake oil oak brook properties here.
the fact you are still posting here is sickening.
“the fact you are still posting here is sickening.”
We knew his word was no good when he agreed to being banned, so I blame our host.
You guys keep promoting me – just stop responding to my posts. Problem solved. My comments will be buried and ignored like yours.
“We knew his word was no good when he agreed to being banned, so I blame our host.”
I do not remember Sabrina ever accepting the role of enforcer.
“just stop responding to my posts.”
Nope, we must protect the innocent.
Clio, It’s hard to resist mocking and ridiculing you for your proven lack of RE knowledge, though.
Speaking of which, you don’t appear to be up to speed on RE licensing requirements, either.
There you guys go again – “feeding the troll”!! hahaha – anyway, G – what do you mean about being up to speed on licensing? I told you that I am not a broker or an agent – I don’t need to be one.
Realtor and md, that has got to be a first.
G,
all i have to say is… 😉
OK – now you’ve got me paranoid – what is going on?
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/08/mba-mortgage-purchase-activity-at.html
Mortgage purchase activity at 15 Year lows.
HD,
did you read illinois is the third lowest in building permits attained.
“I do not remember Sabrina ever accepting the role of enforcer.”
Implied consent. She knew what the bet was and repeatedly failed to mention that she would not enforce it. It was not unreasonable to think that my contributions here would have earned at least a head’s up from her.
maybe sabrina believes in free speech and a balanced discussion of topics. just guessing…..
“Realtor and md, that has got to be a first.”
You mean realtor, md, and construction company owner.
BTW, clio, are you claiming to have a role in managing “your” brokerage business?
Of course… what is your non-sensical point?
“I told you that I am not a broker or an agent – I don’t need to be one.”
“maybe sabrina believes in free speech and a balanced discussion of topics. just guessing…..”
Irrelevant to the point I made.
G, implied consent requires a meeting of the minds and by her refusal to ban him, there was no meeting of the minds. Your other avenue is acceptance via silence but that rule applies only to the rules of evidence. I think the bet was bw you and clio only and it required voluntary compliance. However, you may be able to plead your case before the court of sabrina but she has the right to deny cert.
The drama is too good for the ratings, unfortunately a Clio ban is never going to happen…
“The drama is too good for the ratings, unfortunately a Clio ban is never going to happen”
a boy can dream cant he?
if you want the troll to disappear, don’t feed it….. I keep giving you guys advice on how to curb my posts – but you continue to disregard this advice.
another smart idea from clio. he’s on a roll today.
also, banning doesnt seem to work well. look at dan-marcus-luigi.
The only reason I (or many other women) would even consider moving to Oak Brook is because of the fabulous mall.
Replecement costs need not go up by much if our govt had any sense. Know what the most inelastic commodity is? Yeah and we don’t have to keep giving it away.
Heck if anything the Arab spring has taught me is food exporters can topple regimes without firing a shot.
ChiTownGal, that is a bit sexist….but here are some other reasons to move to OAk Brook:
1. Best schools in the state/country (and they are free)
2. No real estate tax (there is a minimal county tax – but the rates are about 1/3 of what you would pay in any other city/suburb)
3. Nice housing stock
4. Great, professional neighbors
5. Wide open green spaces. Wonderful public wooded areas. Unbelievable bike and hiking paths
6. Innumerable golf courses (public and private) – I live within 1 mile of 3 world class golf courses
7. Free park district activities. Unbelievable sports core which is FREE to residents.
8 Ridiculously easy access to ALL interstates/major highways/tollways – take a look at the map – no other city/suburb is this centrally located (to the airport, all suburbs, etc.)
The list goes on and on…..
Is there a downtown in Oak Brook? All I know about Oak Brook is the mall and i-88
“The list goes on and on…..”
hmm lets see….. just a guess but clio’s brokerage firm is based in Oak Brook/Hinsdale and exclusively sells property in that vicinity.
and again you talk about others ethics?
“food exporters can topple regimes without firing a shot.”
By that logic. Brazil is net/net the worlds most powerful country.
Pretty sure the U.S. is net short food.. Energy as seen as *all* calories (i like this metric)… Wayyyy net short!
Groove, there is nothing unethical about what I am doing. I love Oak Brook which is why I live here. There are many great things about it (see above). Would you call a black person unethical for supporting and promoting a hair relaxer that they like? Would you call the Ricketts family unethical for supporting and praising the Cubs? Of course not!!
“Would you call a black person unethical for supporting and promoting a hair relaxer that they like?”
wow not touching that one with a ten foot pole.
“Would you call the Ricketts family unethical for supporting and praising the Cubs? ”
no because its fully disclosed the rickets own specifically the “Chicago” CUBS.
would you like me to explain the other differences in your shilling compared to the rickets?
side note: you as a doctor do you every time you hear the name rickets do you reach for your prescription pad?
FWIW I vote no to hearing any more about real estate in OB. OB is a town of asshats – IIRC to preserve the no property tax feature in late 2010 a OB asshat (redundant imo) called their police & fire employees “street people” & recommended laying off all to “bring them to their knees” rather than honor a contract. The great professional neighbors include hitmen (employed in different professions than Frank Thomas), middle & upper mgmt of organized crime and similar low life. I can’t imagine of a more arrogant & pompous bunch with so little to be arrogant about.
dude, oak brook rocks, man!
cept you can’t survive off petrol. if you think people get testy at high gas prices just wait until they can’t fill their belly or feed there family. even brutal totalarian oppression is ineffective in such cases.
awe southbound is sympathetic to public sector parasites. you fit right in here in Chicago southbound.
” if you think people get testy at high gas prices just wait until they can’t fill their belly or feed there family.”
Do you have any concept of how dependent on petrol American agriculture is? For fertilizer, harvesting and distribution?
when george w bush said that he wanted to protect the american way of life, he meant it. we have military bases in 150 countries around the world and we spend more on our military than all other nations combined. all of which is to support the american way of life. i am thoroughly confident that america will be able to find a way to usurp most of it.
“#anon (tfo) on August 24th, 2011 at 12:44 pm
” if you think people get testy at high gas prices just wait until they can’t fill their belly or feed there family.”
Do you have any concept of how dependent on petrol American agriculture is? For fertilizer, harvesting and distribution?”
For all of you Oak Brook Fans:
http://af11.wordpress.com/tag/calabrese-oak-brook-home/
Bob, gotta say I agree with you. Bob, by energy I meant convert food to energy for net sustenance requirements. Also to me they have become incredibly correlated to one another, for reasons anon pointed out.
But yes, in times of crisis, food over energy, like rock over scissors. Back when this place was hell. I used to say to my wife that the only thing keeping the fuse from lighting, was how much food they have down here. Also very cool they leave it on the trees, as opposed to the states, where god forbid so much as an orange fell on a kids head in a shopping center parking lot. The litigation!!
I realized anyway, big deal if the US is short food. I bet you could cut back a good 30% of intake, 60% in Chicago, and the country would be healthier.
As for military, no doubt about it. No shortage of that. Would be a funny sketch though of U.S. Marines trying to make a beachhead here on Ipanema. Met with bundas, beers, and soccer balls.
It is not the USA I’m worried about. We currently produce too much food & ship abroad. Oil could double from today’s levels and we’d adapt & be okay. Its places like Lagos or Gaza that are dependent on food imports where over 75% of the population is under 30. Second food stops coming in in sufficient quantity you have a sizeable army basically overnight. Yea they might fight amongst each other at first but soon they’ll see that as a zero sum game. They’re gonna go after their richest neighbors that can’t nuke them.
Look at the captured Somali pirate–he was happy, nay, giddy at his arraignment of learning he was facing 20-life in US federal prison. In Mogadishu that’s a good hand to be given. Get your safaris in now because I don’t see a lot of hope for 2nd & third world countries with such demographics and not enough arable land to feed them.
I always figured we could just go up and take Canada. They got tons of stuff, no people, good beer.
and Bob.. how did you get me on this end of days scenario? I am sure I started with a *very* bullish comment.
yes you can read all about 3rd/2nd world crap here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_World
Bob: OB is a definitely a place for you to aspire to . It is populated by former frat bro – current asshat clowns like u who pout and stomp feet when asked to pay anything for services you contracted for and still require. If the troubles you envision start, mobile residents of west side & nearby suburbs will quickly realize it is likely more lucrative to pillage Republican communities like OB who laid off their protection and are populated by spineless asshats who keep gold dubloons at home to show off to neighbors. But little risk for you – given your lack of upside I foresee you topping out in an apt complex in Lombard or OB Terrace.
“licking his chops and getting the chance to legally use the thing to blast a Shaq-sized intruder through the drywall.”
Reminds me of a favored line from a Chicago-set film:
“You can’t take all of us, badass.”
“You can’t take all of us, badass.”
google cant help me, home alone?
Two men have been charged in Wilmette in the wake of nine recent home burglaries.
http://triblocal.com/wilmette-kenilworth/2011/08/23/two-charged-with-burglary-in-wilmette-after-homes-near-cta-station-targeted/
I wonder what Rahm thinks of these guys traveling from 7700 south up to Wilmette, where his parents live, to prey on the whites? Ah, who cares, what we REALLY need to worry about GZ’ers and Groove’s neighbors having un-PC views about CPS schools, etc.
oh boy dan’s back.
“google cant help me, home alone?”
Above the Law, amking it even more apropos.
It was part of ‘GN’s mid-90s radio ad for its too-frequent re-airings of the movie, minus the “bad ass” part, of course. It was the single line in the movie for the ex-CPD actor. Knew his kid.
shows how dumb they are. because it was wilmette they’re prolly locked up at skokie & got high bonds or none lol. had it been Rogers park they would’ve i-bonded out by now from 26th&cali. now when they finally do get out they share dis wisdom with the homies and we keep it local.
Local for you, the yokel in Canaryville?
Bob: Brou given how you are so smart how have you avoided becoming successful?
southbound – why are you still in chicago? you have been “southbound” for over a year!!!
Can I get some credit for realizing Luigi was Dan after reading just 2 posts about hiring citizens for jobs?
And southbound Bob is proud to be a tea bagger which is basically enough evidence that he is right wing nut case which really is no better than a nut case communist as they are both extremist which never try to solve any problems but just rant and rant and rant : )
Dan give it up. You manner of speaking and vernacular are cues everytime your back with a new name. Nobody else talks about race and “whites” etc. You are pathetic.
“Can I get some credit for realizing Luigi was Dan after reading just 2 posts about hiring citizens for jobs?”
Teach gets an apple..
funny how dan can’t stay away. he must really like us
It’s amazing how easy it is to pick up on someone’s “tone” – even when they change their name on an anonymous chatboard, isn’t it?
” even when they change their name on an anonymous chatboard, isn’t it?”
I wasn’t certain, if what gave it away, was the intelligent comments from the outset, the leading questions, calling others racist, or the always lovely grammar…
c:
I preferred your former policy of ignoring my posts whilst I tried mightily to not jump up and smash your lob like postings of dribble & spite. But be advised southbound is relative – I am a Chicago fish out of water living near HD’s origins, nw sub’n Chicagoland. Unlike you I don’t dabble in real estate hoping for big winds to blow again (hey even fat turkeys flew then) or searching for bigger fools (recently harder for you to find, huh ?). By day I search, buy & redevelop local comm’l opportunities. I am a pro successfully feasting on idiots (guess what my next thought was but I am trying to be better here). I scouted similar opportunities in S FL earlier this year but I have zero interest living anywhere other than Chicago. Thanks for your concern tho.
southbound, I own a great commercial property that has your name all over it. Do you have a budget/area you like/need to stay within?
c thanks but I seek out targeted opportunities for my own very specific agenda. Nothing you own interests me but good luck with it.
southbound, you don’t know what I own so obviously you must be a complete typical moron who let’s his emotional weaknesses cloud his/her judgement. I have nothing against you personally (never have) – but just want to point out to the other folks NOT to get your emotions involved in this business. There are people who you don’t like that might own houses that you DO like. Don’t let your anger and psychoses get in the way of an opportunity that might be ….right…in…front…of …..your…nose.
And since you really want to know my capability so you can measure who is a bigger RE dog my assemblages right now range from $ – $ (I deleted amounts because it just didn’t seem fair to pile on – just my hunch but weren’t you laid off or fired from your day job recently? – For a brief moment about a month ago you posted empathetic and you subsequently have expressed concerns about people who lost jobs). Not that I believe a layoff or firing would be anything other than a speed bump for you unlike my friends who are tradesmen
C I just read your latest post but I don’t believe you actually read mine. The operative words in my post are I “seek out targeted opportunities for my own very specific agenda”. If you own a property that I become interested in I will find you & make contact. I have no interest in wasting my time (or yours) discussing other properties. Fwiw I do business with people I can’t stand fairly frequently but thanks for the advice. I also have met some great people who I am still in contact with years after doing deals
If I wanted to vex you I could waste a few minutes & post which of your properties I think you are currently touting and discuss what I think of it. But life is short so let’s leave each other be.
Huh? how would you know what properties I own? You don’t even know who I am – that is just weird.
Please stop. No one cares. Take it off line. Thanks.
“Please stop. No one cares. Take it off line. Thanks”
Bri-Bri you should be collecting ad revenue from clio, his business has more ad’s on here than your google ads.