Selling Under the 2006 Price: 4641 N. Wolcott in Lincoln Square
We’re starting to see some properties price below boom-era levels. Take this 4-bedroom 2006 construction single family home at 4641 N. Wolcott in Lincoln Square.
It is currently listed $287,000 under what it last sold for in 2006.
Here’s the listing:
Exceptional Lincoln Square custom built home on over-sized lot. Exotic Brazilian walnut floor, custom oversized windows, 12 foot tray ceilings, skylights. Professional grade kitchen w/ Viking dbl-oven, large counter surface, great for entertaining.
Finished bsmt w/ full wet bar. All baths come w/ intricate tile work and high-end fxtrs. Lrg fenced yard with fireplace. Walk to brown line EL + Ravenswood Metra.
Phil Byers at Keller Williams Lincoln Park has the listing. See more pictures here.
4641 N. Wolcott: 4 bedrooms, 4.5 baths, 4400 square feet, 2 car garage
- Sold in August 2006 for $1,287,500
- Was listed in early October for $1,149,000
- Reduced
- Now listed for $999,999
- Taxes of $15,429
- New construction in 2006
Reduced again? The link provided lists it at $999,999.
I never quite understood the large 4.5 bedroom house on a full city lot in an off-neighborhood. Houses like this one are almost as common and ubiquitous as three flats. The developers built tens of thousands of these all over the city. I’ve noticed that many of them were purchased using some aspect of exotic financing i.e. 20% downpayment but then an IO ARM balloon Jumbo for $900,000, etc. I don’t know how much longer these houses with their $15k in RE taxes will be able to hold thier value.
Morever, there is nothing special about these houses. Take away the granite countertops and the fancy bathrooms, and all you really have is a big brick house with some drywall. I just don’t get it. I really don’t.
HD,
I don’t either considering you can get mansions with a lot more space in this price range. I don’t think this one is grossly overpriced, but maybe needs to lop off another 150-250k.
Lop off $250k and it’ll probably sell. 5 years from now the next seller will also need to lop of another $250k. It’s supply and demand. I think it’s arguable that there is a much greater supply of $1,000,000 mcmansions in off-neighborhoods than there is demand.
Louie: You’re right. It has been reduced again. Sometimes I can’t keep up with the price reductions. Thanks for pointing that out. The post has been updated to reflect the new price.
Especially now that toxic financing has evaporated, $999,999 mansions in neighborhoods like this will go the way of the dodo bird. Expect listing prices to continue their downward spiral as the last neg am option ARM resets in 2011/12.
Lincoln Square…isn’t this the same neigborhood as the 26-year-old paralegal with the $350k condo?
The ceiling is kind of cool. As far as mcmansions go, this one is alright. It doesn’t scream out “I’m a douche” as much as most. Looks like it has a (fraternal) twin built next door though, that’s kind of annoying
ooh, and the garage has an outdoor fireplace and chimney!
This might sell for a mill. But hopefully those taxes can be appealed. For a million dollar piece of property I’d expect property taxes to be ~12k.
Whats funny is compare this, listed at a million with the 600k shoebox condos in Roscoe Village. I think the purchasers of those condos are in a lot more trouble than this owner.
I would have said this had a chance of selling within 5-10 percent of the current list, but it’s 50 feet from the brown line. Yikes. And the taxes are high.
I’m not sure this is such an “off neighborhood” anymore. Lincoln Square has really blossomed in terms of shops and entertainment plus it has a wonderful real neighborhood feel, full of families as well as everything else. The wide lawns, ample street parking and solid public transportation options also make it pretty appealing. This place is a little east of the main drag but is still well located…
“Whats funny is compare this, listed at a million with the 600k shoebox condos in Roscoe Village. I think the purchasers of those condos are in a lot more trouble than this owner.”
Couldn’t agree more. Of course, the pricing of houses like this and those $600k condos drove one another (and the cost of a city lot) higher. If there weren’t morons paying $600k for a “duplex up” in Roscoe Village (maybe $300k instead), then houses like this would have been 40% (or more) less, too. Would seem somewhat reasonable at $775k, wouldn’t it?
“I’m not sure [Lincoln Square] is such an “off neighborhood” anymore”
This raises a question for me–what does HD think is a desireable neighborhood in the city? LP and LV are out. Now Lincoln Square. South Loop and West Loop have been (I think fairly) dumped on, too. Seems like Roscoe Village and the rest of North Center have been criticized (or could be on the same basis as Lincoln Sq), too.
So, HD, what qualifies as a “good” city neighborhood? Sauganash? Old Irving? Hyde Park? Beverley? Edison Park? Englewood?
Hegewisch is hard to beat, it’s like living in indiana (except without the cheap cigarettes and gas.)
““I’m not sure [Lincoln Square] is such an “off neighborhood” anymore”
This raises a question for me–what does HD think is a desireable neighborhood in the city? ”
Lincoln Square is actually a really cool neighborhood; I’ve spent considerable time there over the years. But I call it an off neighborhood because it’s not really near any highway, it’s pretty far north, its got a weird mix of housing and commercial, it’s sort of west of the lake, it’s not traditionally a place that northsiders consider when purchasing a million dollar home. When you think million dollars homes you think the LP, LV, GC, loop, etc. Someone on this site described it as a working class neighborhood and they laughed to think that 26 year olds were paying $350k for condos. But for the record it is a nice place and I like it there.
Lincoln Sq is a great neighborhood…and although a little farther away for the city, it has a metra that will get you to downtown in 10 minutes! This house will sell within 10% of the asking price. And if I had that kind of money, I would buy it.
And for the record I’m not so much the fan of the LP and the GC for a number of reasons I’ve already discussed here. That’s not to say that other people have to agree with me or even should agree with me.
Hi. I’m the listing agent for this property and this was brought to my attention today. Glad to be on Crib Chatter!
We HAVE lowered the price to $999,900. Couple things in response to some of the comments:
1. This house is NOT on a standard lot – it is a 25×152 lot with brick garage.
2. True that the house doesn’t scream “I’m a douche”. I know what you’re saying about the so-called McMansions. It is definitely different than most. You can email me at pbyers@kw.com if you want to hear more about those differences.
3. This is a short sale and therefore could reasonably sell below $1mil. Say what you want about the house (without seeing it), but $800-900K for this house is a STEAL even in this market.
4. It is much more than 50 feet from the brown line. At least 100 🙂
Call me if you have questions or any real interest. It’s a great house at a great price.
“Lop off $250k and it’ll probably sell. 5 years from now the next seller will also need to lop of another $250k.”
Maybe you were commenting on the prior price (don’t know what it was), but if this sells for $500k in 2013, basically everyone living on the city (and probably everyone else, too) will have bigger problems than the fact that large SFHs in nice-ish city neighborhoods are not affordable. It’s like I say to friends in finance: if (bad thing x happens), you’ll have more to worry about than finding a new job. If it comes to that house being $500k by 2013, I’m putting all my money in powder, shells, and buckshot. And I don’t even like that house (although the second floor has a nice floorplan).
PS–the listing (now) says taxes are $12,625. Maybe they filed their homeowners exemption.
PPS–50 feet understates the distance from the el a little. But it’s right on a curve. And the alley dumps into the parking lot for a medical clinic.
anon tfo:
The pain, however bad it is, will be concentrated among certain segments of the population, not among everyone. Remember more than half of Chicago residents are renters. Also around half of homeowners own their own home outright.
The only people that would be affected by a drastic decline in RE prices are those with a mortgage that need to move and those counting on cashing out their home for their retirement. But I doubt this will drop to 500k, if this was in a neighborhood I see as strong potential for de-gentrification then yes. But Lincoln Square seems pretty stable.
Is there any premium in the Chicago market for being within walking distance of Metra?
“Maybe you were commenting on the prior price (don’t know what it was), but if this sells for $500k in 2013, basically everyone living on the city (and probably everyone else, too) will have bigger problems than the fact that large SFHs in nice-ish city neighborhoods are not affordable. ”
First they said there was no bubble; then they said that there was a little froth; then they said the bubble was contained to coasts and FL; then they said that the defaults were only in subprime; Then they said that the default were alt-a and primes were just fine; then they said that defaults won’t spread outside real estate; then they said that the defaults won’t move into credit cards or home loans….
Then in October 2008 as the market crashed they screamed “who would have saw this coming!!!!”
I’m getting a very icky feeling on the long bond rate… panic buying keeping rates tame. When this settles down in a few months to a year I have no idea how this all gets financed at these levels. not gunna happen.
IB,
I think your worries are quite founded, and even if there is panic buying currently, look at the chart of the long bond from 1984 to today and see the long-term trend.
In fact today I think I’ll run a regression to see the slope and when we’ll hit zero. Interest rates can’t go below zero and this must keep the Fed up at night.
Likely what led to the explosion of debt was that they went below the inflation rate around 2000–in effect paying bankers to borrow money and speculate.
bankers jobs are to borrow and speculate. Letting them gear up leverage to 40:1 was the true insanity.
“Letting them gear up leverage to 40:1 was the true insanity.”
Yep, yep, yep. They cried about not being able to “compete with” (i.e., pay themselves as much as) the Hedge Funds. Poor babies.
Bob:
“The pain, however bad it is, will be concentrated among certain segments of the population, not among everyone”
If that is on the market, having a hard time selling for $600k five years from now, there will be generalized panic/depression and everyone in America (EVERYone) will be hurting, badly.
Will the pain be worse for those (few) who piled their free cash into real estate? Yep, but who does that? If you only made a small down payment, how are you really much worse off when prices fall than if you had stayed out? You lose your DP and any delta b/t rental cost and ownership cost, but that’s not a big deal if things fall apart. Plus, you’re in possession (9/10s of the law, per received wisdom, if not reality) a house that only a (presumably collapsing) bank has a superior claim to, thus the powder, shells and shot being a good investment.
“Morever, there is nothing special about these houses. Take away the granite countertops and the fancy bathrooms, and all you really have is a big brick house with some drywall. I just don’t get it. I really don’t.”
Unfortunetly that is the case for about 95% of all the homes out there. Chicago is a great place for commercial architecture, but absolutely one of the worst for residential…
In some areas california houses that were $1,000,000 are now listed for $600,000 and houses that were $500,000 are listed for $300,000. And the world still turns, life goes on. Banks and debtors are taking losses and moving on. The crash has come about in about one years time.
I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say that a $1,287,500 house in Lincoln Square at the height of the bubble might only be worth $600,000 or $700,000 when this real estate depression fleshes itself out. I figure a DINK household with two $75k or $100k a year jobs with a 20% dp could afford this house. I’m of the opinion there are more houses like this than there is demand, but that’s, you know, only my opinion, man. Figure $12,000 in taxes a year and god only knows how much the utilities are … and the maintenance will start to appear after 10-15 years…$750k tops in 2013.
Our fearless leader, Ed Zander, always said, “It’s never as bad as you think it is and it’s never as good as you think it is.” Real estate will continue to be a good investment as history has proven and LS is a nice, affordable ‘hood when compared to Lakeview or LP.
I tend to think real estate has bottomed (or very close to it) and we’ll start to see signs of recovery in the spring. My new concern is consumer spending, which is going to TANK for the next 6+ months.
Just my .02
HD:
You should have never revealed you rent a studio in Uptown. It is extremely hard to take you seriously when your RE holdings consist of a studio lease. Have you ever actually bought or sold property?
Dave… So by your idiotic logic. The person who is balls to the walls long 10 places down in Miami that he is choking on would be the most credible source of info?
The fact HD can put his head down on his little studio bed pillow and sleep at night probably allows him a good perspective in and of itself.
“$750k tops in 2013”
Sure, that’s plausible, tho I still think of a piece with bad news in the overall economy. My argument was with your contention that it would be $500k and that would be hunky-dorry. At $750k, the cascade of pricing for other properties isn’t as terrible and the implied interest rates aren’t onerous. $500k means $100/ft for new-ish construction and $60k for a city lot (or some other combo).
“You should have never revealed you rent a studio in Uptown.”
Jeebus, dave, you believe holocaust deniers, too? Stevo is the one who put that out there. HD doesn’t live in a studio, doesn’t live in Uptown, but IS a renter.
dave is likely the typical over-extended owner, only associating one’s credibility with success with tangible things. Nevermind those deep underwater on their mortgages or being chased by debt collectors, so long as they have shiny rims on the bimmer and live in a nice place, finances be darned!
How is that living beyond one’s means working for ya dave? ;D
“credibility with success” should’ve read “credibility and success”.
“Jeebus, dave, you believe holocaust deniers, too? Stevo is the one who put that out there. HD doesn’t live in a studio, doesn’t live in Uptown, but IS a renter.”
Thanks for defending me anon (tfo). I rent; I’ve known plenty of people who’ve bought; I personally have clients who own 1 investment unit all the way up to hundreds of units. 20 minutes ago I was working on a settlement in a RLTO case I have on my desk. I’m quite familiar with most residential real estate including the perils of owning and investing, mortgage lending, selling and purchasing, etc. I’ll be the first to admit I’m a little weak on the contruction side of things and in some of the more complex financial equations involved with investing. But after what I’ve seen, I rent. And my DINK household with excellent credit has plenty of income to buy, but I choose not to – at this time.
What they forget to mention is this place is right on the L tracks, and surrounded by hospital properties, the location isnt prime at all
Phil wrote (see above):
“Hi. I’m the listing agent for this property and this was brought to my attention today. Glad to be on Crib Chatter!
We HAVE lowered the price to $999,900. Couple things in response to some of the comments:
3. This is a short sale and therefore could reasonably sell below $1mil. Say what you want about the house (without seeing it), but $800-900K for this house is a STEAL even in this market.
4. It is much more than 50 feet from the brown line. At least 100”
Thanks for updating us on some of the issues with this property Phil. We appreciate it.
Reese said “I tend to think real estate has bottomed (or very close to it) and we’ll start to see signs of recovery in the spring.”
Except that housing prices are still way out of whack by any traditional measurement: rental vs. purchase price; cap rates; debt/income ratios, current price v. pre-bubble price, etc. And the kicker, why we’re not even close to the bottom: the infamous Credit Suisse ARM reset chart.
And Phil, sorry to hear about the short sale. Remember, don’t sign the short sale agreement if it contains a promissory note or any other language which makes you liable for the deficiency. Otherwise you’re guaranteed to file bankruptcy in the future. You’re better off letting the property go into foreclosure and then paying a lawyer a few thousand bucks to appear at the judgment hearing to fight the deficiency liability, if any. The language can usually be crossed out of the foreclosure judgment at the time the order is entered; all you have to do is ask 😉 I’ve had to ask plenty of times.
Funny Phil.. I sold 2 homes in Chicago this summer. I found the moment I went under market they got lifted. Rarely does a “steal” sit around and not get stolen.
All the best of luck though.
Phil, disregard my post; I didn’t realize you were the listing agent. I thought you were the homeowner. Sorry!
Reese said “I tend to think real estate has bottomed (or very close to it) and we’ll start to see signs of recovery in the spring.”
Hope springs eternal…
(Didn’t we hear the same the last couple of years?)
“if this was in a neighborhood I see as strong potential for de-gentrification”
So, what are your thoughts about neighborhoods with potential for de-gentrification, post-bubble?
I purchased my own my home in 2002 for a great price and I have a rental property, both with 5.25% 30 yr mortgages in which I put down 10% on each. I love to laugh at all you (broke-ass) gloom and doomers who obviously get off on seeing people having a tough time selling their places, price fair or not. All in the hopes that someday, maybe if our country’s econmy gets destroyed enough, you might be able to actually afford a cool pad. You all are pathetic. Enjoy your ramen noodles and PB&J.
“I purchased my own my home in 2002 for a great price and I have a rental property, both with 5.25% 30 yr mortgages in which I put down 10% on each. I love to laugh at all you (broke-ass) gloom and doomers who obviously get off on seeing people having a tough time selling their places, price fair or not. All in the hopes that someday, maybe if our country’s econmy gets destroyed enough, you might be able to actually afford a cool pad. You all are pathetic. Enjoy your ramen noodles and PB&J.”
We’ll see who laughs last, dave. Just wait until people like you with decent income and savings get taxed into oblivion. Your wealth is a treasure trove to be plundered by the the masses who want to spread the wealth. And laugh at the wrong guy dave, and you’ll get jacked. They’ll kill you for the $50.00 in your wallet and let your body rot in the gutter. Laugh heartily dave.
Even though I hate to admit it, I agree with Dave. There are a lot of unhappy (putting it mildly) people on this board and I’m surprised at the way people attack each other. I get the feeling that everyone on this board that is a broker has been beaten down so badly by their clients/market that they need to let it out here.
There will always be worst case outliers. Putting them all in one place does not make them reality or the norm.
It’s amusing to watch homedelete try to get under people’s skin and I’m impressed with SH’s optimism while under constant fire. For those that have been socking away the bucks for a home instead of leveraging themselves to the max, this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy!
“We’ll see who laughs last, dave. Just wait until people like you with decent income and savings get taxed into oblivion. Your wealth is a treasure trove to be plundered by the the masses who want to spread the wealth. And laugh at the wrong guy dave, and you’ll get jacked. They’ll kill you for the $50.00 in your wallet and let your body rot in the gutter. Laugh heartily dave.”
Spoken like a true Republican who can’t see beyond his wallet. Very altruistic statement.
HD… cold shit!!! funny though since I said that to a friend of mine this morning. It was pretty much what I meant earlier today about even if you did all the right things and went entirely to cash, they might not let you have it back or just devalue it to nothingness. Every one in the U.S. feels entitled and what they will feel entitled to is your stuff. That 250 cap will go to 150 then to 75… 50…. And no it doesn’t matter who the hell is President. You will be getting taxed higher soon. So when you asked me about being on the Lam… you now explained for yourself a huge part of why I left!
Actually once or twice on here all I ever posted was the single comment
“Who is John Galt” It’s like watching it happen before your eyes right now.
And Dave.. I never had a PB&J sandwich in my life. My wife loves Ramen though.
Oh and city and state provided services are only months away from being cut everywhere and if you think otherwise you are an imbecile… Prepare for lot’s of fun stuff like that. Nothing like a police force cut when you just moved into that “gentrifying” neighborhood.
Ha not even gentrifying… Try Ohio and St Clair, it was starting to look like a homeless shelter when I left.
Dave and Reese, I have always been a permabull. Last Oct was the first time I was not long equities since I was 12!!!!!!! Why is it that just because you see bad when it looks bad that means you are vindictive???
Reese,
Also I call bullshit on your altruistic comment. If you are so altruistic than you wouldn’t mind someone less fortunate coming over and taking your 42″ TV since theirs is only 19″ and they “need” a bigger one. My bet is you don’t open your door.
Can we all agree that there was, at least, a Housing Bubble in Chicago and that it is now correcting itself?
True, Chicago prices didn’t get as outrageous on the coasts. But I’ve done enough posts showing prices 10 years out where the price has tripled in that time to argue that prices are unsustainable at these levels in Chicago as well (without the cheap credit.)
Buying at 4 or 5 times income is not sustainable in the long haul. The “starter” house will return. So will the “starter” condo.
How long will it take us to get there? That’s the question.
Reese,
Equities now have a PE ratio of around 8 according to the S&P500 it has only been this low 17% of the time since 1872, now has never been a better time to buy equities too.
Bob,
For a completely different spin on things check this out:
http://www.investingminds.com/social/blogs/gary/index.php?pst_id=100184
The E in your ratio is bogus.
Gary:
That’s the issue with the stock market. What will the forward earnings look like? It appears they will be a lot lower than the current projections- which means stocks aren’t very cheap at all.
Besides, stocks were much cheaper than this in the 1970s. I suspect we’ll see them around those levels once again.
Same with housing. We’re going to overshoot on the downside more than people think. I’m waiting for the time when it is more expensive to rent than to own (and we have a long way to go with that.)
Historically, both equities and real estate are a good long term investment. So much of this volatility is coming from large fund managers which is beyond the scope of our control. Homeowners do have much more to say as to when they cash in on their investment (with the exception of job loss/stupidity/etc). Also, real estate is providing the basic human need of shelter and in poor economic times, families generally start to focus more on home, family time, etc and less on their aspirational shopping.
So, at some point in the future (6+ months?), when we do start to see improvements, I’ll betcha that people put their money in a home before the market with the exception of a 401(k).
Reese:
It’s interesting you think people will still want to be in real estate versus stocks in the future. You are talking from the experience of seeing a massive real estate bubble that will never return. The boom mindset is still there.
It was no different with investors in technology companies. After that bust, there were people who waded right back in because that bubble had told them it was the place to be. Only it wasn’t. And won’t be for a long, long time.
Same with real estate. Many people still haven’t figured out that the boom is over. It takes years to unlearn former behavior.
In this decade, we’ve seen investors sour on the stock market twice (after the dot-com bust and now.) I agree with you, that people will be relucant to put ANY money into the markets after this. That’s when the stock market will be juicy.
After real estate busted in the 1930s, it was decades before anyone thought about buying for anything other than shelter. And major high-rises weren’t built in Chicago for a long, long time (something like 20 years.)
I’ve heard that my office building on LaSalle St. was the last major skyscraper completed during the great depression and they didn’t build another one for almost 20 years.
And going back to the republican comment, yes, I am an unrepentant republican (although my party’s current incarnation is despicable). I’ve noticed in life that most times people’s problems are almost always self-created. Most problems in life are caused by one of a few things primarily…living an unhealthy lifestyle, irresponsible intimate relations and financial stupidity. If you go to work everyday, keep a simple budget, eat decent food and keep your pants on, chances are you’ll be OK and you won’t run to the government for a handout. Of course there are people that truly need help, i.e. the disabled veterans, the mentally ill, widows and widowers, etc. and obviously society should protect its weakest, but I’m totally against picking the pockets of the ‘rich’ because somebody else lives a lifestyle that causes them to be poor, unhealthy, or have numerous unfunded dependents. I’m old school I know.
One final caveat to the above, my views obviously only work in the US, b/c in places with extreme poverty and institutionalized oppression of the poor…well, life’s quite different in those places.
But I’ve seen plenty of bankruptcies come through my door in the last few months, and the common themes are: overspending on houses, cars, food and 60″ tvs. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen a person taking home $2,000 a month buy a car that costs $450 a month (for 72-84 months of course), not including insurance and gas. The joke in my office is that our BK clients drive nicer cars that we do, and we’re they’re lawyers!
Child support is the same. There are 12,000,000 people in Illinois and over 10% of them are caught up in the child support system some way or another, with most of the 10% not in divorce court but in child support court i.e. unwed at the time of birth. KEEP YOUR PANTS ON. 20% of your take home per kid is a lot of money. I’ve managed to make it this far in life without any children why should I be expected to pay for yours? Isn’t that the father’s obligation? And housing payments. I saw someone the other day….a world famous subprime bank gave a woman 2 mortgages….for $1,800 a month. She takes home $2,100! Why on earth would anyone sign those papers???? Well they were impulsive and wanted a house and they wanted it now and it bankrupted them. I could go on and on but the basic theme that seems to be lacking in so many people’s lives is restraint, and when they fail to show restraint they develop a sense of entitlement. I need this expensive new car, I need this house I cannot afford, I need help with my utilities even though I just bought a tv and dvd player and $80 shoes.
/rant off
Reese… so please tell me about the tears of joy in the eyes of the less fortunate person you so gladly and altruistically gave that TV to today.
As long as it comes from my pocket you are ok with that. If Obama said everyone should buck up for this with rich people bucking up more he would get crushed because of phonies like you.
Thats why I’m long as of recently on a couple industrial companies whose earnings are generally more stable. Yes their earnings could fall x%, but its not like finance companies where they could fall off a cliff. A PE of 6-8 just screams value to me.
I remember this same sort of panic in 2002, remember the dow did hit 7,600 at one point. And the market seems to collapse at the leading edge of the economic cycle and rebounds long before a recovery takes root. Value investors are going to have a field day.
HD,
You actually seem like a bright guy. I may have too quick to judge. Your posts usually seem negative but I guess this market is pretty depressing.
HD- I agree with about 80% of your above statements- so thank you for explaining further.
IB- You are either having one seriously crummy year or you are one nasty dude. I’ll let you tell me which it is but I hope you don’t show this side to your clients!
Reese..
I don’t have clients and never had… Usually just stoned and chilling out… I’m happy to admit I don’t really do much actually. More accurate might be to say I refuse to produce anymore. And with the one or 2 occasions I called BS on SH (who i actually enjoy) I have never vented on anyone on here before. I just hate when people are full of shit telling others to give what they themselves won’t and then labeling those others with some blanket name such as you do by saying Republican. (I am not by the way)
Remember you started by telling HD that he was not altruistic for not letting others plunder him. I just called you out on your own BS. You could give away your TV and shove it in my face but you didn’t. Take a minute to think why. At a minimum maybe you will realize you do not have any right to anyone elses stuff any more than you yourself enjoy the idea of someone having yours.
If I was a douche expressing that opinion you have my apologies.
It is really my single biggest, and possibly only, piss me off issue. It’s just hypocritical. Now I hope you see it as such for yourself.
Shorter might be to say.. I have no prob with someone saying “Hey I’ll let my taxes go up 5% but can you let yours go up 7% since you can afford it”
But that’s not how it goes…
Homedelete,
This is a classic line “If you go to work everyday, keep a simple budget, eat decent food and keep your pants on, chances are you’ll be OK” I loved it! This should be our nation’s mantra.
Sabrina & Reese,
Regarding the stock market and housing. One thing for sure the stock market is a lot more volatile than housing. But stocks have returned a lot more in the long run – as you’d expect with higher volatility. All housing has really done is keep up with inflation. However, over the last 10 years housing has been a hands down better investment than stocks. For the next 10 years stocks will be much better. I’m thinking that with the stock market in the toilet, people who were on the housing sidelines are suddenly not as wealthy as they once were and may need to stay on the sidelines. We may see housing go down another 10% in Chicago but not much more than that.
On a separate note, I know a ton of people who are itching for a tax increase. However, they take advantage of every tax loophole, didn’t return their government stimulus check, and never make voluntary contributions to the US government. Go figure!
Better mantra… Work less enjoy life more!!! You only get one go around!!! When you are on that deathbed you will not be wishing to have only had a bit more time to have worked more.
Hell yeah my posts are negative. I have to admit the schadenfreude makes me giddy. I’m so negative because its difficult to be positive about a $999,999 short sale SFH in Lincoln Square. In fact, the perceived negativity are actually feelings of joy and glee as affordability returns to the housing market. How can the american consumer spend spend spend if all his income is going to pay his mortgage? Paying interest only makes someone else rich. Debt is not wealth. years from now, a family with children will buy this home at an affordable price and they will have good memories of growing up in Lincoln Square. This overvalued $1.2 million house (at the top of the boom) has brought nothing but doom, gloom, short sales, foreclosures, sleepless nights and probably bankruptcy.
Gary… stupid question…
“On a separate note, I know a ton of people who are itching for a tax increase.”
On themselves??
IB,
Not a stupid question at all. It’s complex and very hard for me to understand. They lean left. They claim they want taxes to go up and they are willing to pay more to pay off the national debt and to support what they believe are valuable social causes. A great example is Penny Pritzker (I don’t know her) but she’s really tight with our next president (86% chance of winning at this point). Don’t you think she has a few tax accountants?
I think Gary understands what not a lot of people do: people with money have the means to avoid paying a high effective tax rate.
How many trusts do the Pritzker’s have? I don’t know but they probably can’t be counted on one’s fingers.
Gary… With Penny you could take away 95% of her wealth and she wouldn’t even notice. Maybe her philanthropy is some WASP’y guilt for being born into such money. I have no idea and I don’t think you can use her as an example for much since very few have the ability to even conceive of what life looks like through her eyes. An extremely impressive woman nonetheless.
As for the left leaning friends.. give them the test I gave Reese… I bet when they get the befuddled look off their face they call you mean for suggesting it.
Words are cheap, actions speak volumes.
Time for a jog outside… all the best.
Oh…I give them a test all the time. I ask them if they returned their stimulus checks. I ask them why they try to minimize their taxes and why they don’t voluntarily pay more tax. A friend of mine who lives in The People’s Republic of Massachusetts told me that they passed a law there that allowed people to pay more tax voluntarily. In the whole state only like 3 or 4 people made a contribution.
I’ve concluded that these altruistic folks don’t want THEIR taxes raised…they want MY taxes raised.
IB,
I’m not taking the bait. You haven’t the faintest idea who I am or what I do (or don’t do) with my time & money.
But I’m flattered that you’re still chewing on this. Truth hurts, huh?
My experience is that those that can (fairly) mitigate their tax burden through charitable purposes, do, much to the betterment of local non-profits, hospitals and universities.
Reese.. Truth of what??? I am first to admit I do not want to pay more than a penny more than i have to. To a government that wastes?? I called you out for calling out someone else, and you blinked, only truth is that you are full of shit.
Yep Gary.. Exactly. Think of why the number is 95% wont get taxes raised in a race that a 2% flip would have turned the other way. If he said top 40% we would have an irresponsible idiot for President once again.
Truth is Trillions must be paid for. It is a mathematic certainty that everyone must pay.
And remember the doughnuthole in the SS tax increase that was suggested a while ago? Political stunt – makes no economic sense whatsoever. Change? Ha…Just politics
The reality of the matter is that as IB suggested, all of our taxes should go up if we don’t want our country to go bk. But to raise some people’s taxes to almost European and Canadian levels (at least when considering the taxes in some states) while lowering those of a family making 100k – I might as well head to Europe and enjoy a better transportation system and much more vacation time.
The solution to our debt problem is four pronged. First we raise taxes on the half of the population that actually pays taxes. Secondly, we force some of the people who don’t currently pay taxes to pay taxes i.e. no more fully refundable credits. Third, we have to make large entitlement cuts across the board. Finally, we inflate the hell out of the dollar. America and our politicians will eventually get us out of our mess, in a few generations, and they’ll do the above, but not necessarily in that order.
homedelete,
If you don’t do anything about out of control government spending then the four points are for naught. When W took office the federal budget was around 2T/year. Now that he’s leaving its around 3T: yes you got that right he managed to spend an extra cool trillion a year. What a disaster of a president.
Who thinks McCain and Palin should be in a Viagra commercial after they lose next Tuesday? I
I agree with both HD and Bob… The more you give the more they will spend. My friend said months ago to me the same thing “they will take care of it” I replied “always good to trust the ones that made the mess” So far everything done has been to steal from the populace or make matters worse. That 700bil went out so fast before Bush has to leave for a reason.
The only other thing I don’t agree with is DO NOT INFLATE!!! SOunds like a cure but I spent a year in 3,000% inflation once and it is just devastating. If inflation was the solution Zimbabwe would be the wealthiest country on earth today. Unfortunately I think we deflate and then hyperinflate. I have given this tons of thought though and figured out that all inflation will go to the wrong places. An attempt to inflate RE back up (which solves everything happening now) will only work if we can bring incomes up and there is so much global pressure on incomes that it is just not going to happen. Not to mention a tidal wave about to hit in unemployment.
Rachel… I’d trade a lower income for more vacation any day. That is a uniquely American thing where people leave work and brag about how many vacation days they never took, or just outright brag about how many years they went without a vacation. I find it sad. Life is so freaking short.
Steve.. see the Nailin Paylin clips??
“…if you did all the right things and went entirely to cash, they might not let you have it back or just devalue it to nothingness.”
That’s how I feel IB. I did all the right things over these past five years and I’m taking it up the giggy to help out the entitled morons…on Wall St AND Main St.
How are you taking it up the giggy?
I think he means he will be… Just because you have not gotten the bill sent to yet do not think it is not being accrued for you. Sad thing is I was against bailing out anyone all along but this 70 bil immediately (and conveniently not mentioned weeks ago) designated to be paid for performance bonuses should have led to a good Bastille like beheading. People are just frighteningly complacent.
Selling under 2006??? That’s not headline news, just wait until selling under 2001. In the Miami area we’re already talking about selling to 1998 prices, no joke. A 40%-50% from peak prices is common on short sales.
John… Miami was my flip-flop b/w moving to Chi or Mia and luckily I picked Chicago and only walked away with a slap on the wrist. Not to mention being around more pleasant and more grounded (albeit less attractive) people. In Miami I am seeing not able to finance at any level. Nothing like building assessments of a 40 story condo half full. Even I do not think Chicago will be Miami.
The democrat congress has an even lower approval rating than the president. They had to approve the budget and tack on their own pork barrel spending. This isn’t just a Bush issue.
IB – I picked Miami (well just north of it) instead of Chicago. The closer you get to Miami itself the more it is like being in another country…I’m just north of it. So far it has been great. I can rent for half the price of owning in a brand new building right on the beach with a perfect ocean view that beats renting at 340 On The Park both in building, s.f., price, etc. Comparing the two, I noticed people in Chicago were not smiling as much, were pale, and a lot more overweight (a lot more!). I do need to brush up on my Spanish though! I am waiting to buy, there is no rush. When winter comes, I won’t know what to do with the sunshine instead of gray skies. I’ve lost 15 lbs just being down here…10 more I’d I’ll be Speedo ready (well, not really but maybe one of those men’s brazilian trunk things). Being a midwesterner, a lot of people suggested the gulf coast, but so far being on the beach on the Atlantic side has been nice and the water in my area is with 2 degrees on average of the gulf side (I checked the stats with the national oceanic). Maybe buy in 2010 when the market hits the nominal dollar price bottom…no rush though.
HD- Both parties are equally guilty. I refuse to fight over that, they want you picking sides. I lived dead middle of that Beltway crap long enough. It is foul.
John… A LOT MORE OVERWEIGHT!!!!!!! I beefed up myself pretty good in Chi Town. Benn gone for a month and already dropped 5 of it though. Chicago simply on average the best (and unhealthiest) food in the USA. As for the Gulf Coast that is horrendous!!! I was once asked to leave Shulas restaurant in Naples at 10 so they could close. I agree with being north of the silliness. I assume you mean Bal Harbour/Aventura. My only issue with Chicago was the cold. I thought it couldn’t be much colder than NYC and was I wrong. 4-5 months a year trapped indoors is too much for me. The people were absolutely awesome though. The cultural stuff blows away Miami though and the city has stuff going on all summer which is awesome. I too will prob pick up something in Mia in about 2 years. I don’t think it will be a quick turnaround so no rush. Hey the assessments even in full buildings down there are so absurdly high you should be laughing renting down there. As for Spanish.. yes you should learn it has many benefits. And next time please refrain from the Brazilian bathing suit comment unless you are talking about ella e bunda e fio dental. God bless them!!!
“IB on October 26th, 2008 at 5:24 pm
HD- Both parties are equally guilty. I refuse to fight over that, they want you picking sides. I lived dead middle of that Beltway crap long enough. It is foul. ”
It’s the same team just different uniforms.
“The change, it had to come
We knew it all along
We were liberated from the foe, that’s all
And the world looks just the same
And history ain’t changed”
You know the rest
IB – I passed on a place to rent that was only about 30% of cost to own….private elevator and all….just too much space and wouldn’t been $400-$900 more per month that I didn’t need to spend. It is a renter’s paradise down here! Just be sure to check the owner out since you don’t want to rent and have the owner get foreclosed upon….in this market the tenant needs to do a credit check on the landlord! I won’t miss the winter gray skies…it really is depressing! Miami won’t bottom out in REAL dollar terms for years……. There has been a lot of knife catching in some areas but the inventories keep rising as foreclosures just keep coming……. A lot of foreigners have stopped paying their mortgages, taxes and condo dues so they can bank the cash for 12-18 months then just move back to their country…darn unethical, but that is what they are doing since they have no money in the property anyway. I don’t think banks will loan to foreigners in the future after this without 50% down. Needing 35% down is common here and some require more….45%-50%. Who knows, if we hit a cash buyers only market then I’ll buy 6 months after that happens.
John.. I was down there 3-4 weeks ago and I couldn’t believe at night how dark all the buildings were.
Now for a new low… Just arrived in my email New NAR ad directing people to homefactsblahblahliars.com which i refuse to so much as click on.
The ad states “60% of the average homeowner’s WEALTH is from their HOME’S EQUITY”
in very small type under it footnotes the study from i shit you not 1995!!!!
What’s that quote… “What does it profit a man to gain the world yet forfeit his soul”
Odd how realtors point out to where one’s wealth is….it is the home that made one wealthy, it was just a forced savings account via mortgage payments that in the end is not a good return on equity just barely keeping pace with inflation. Until it is more expensive to rent than own, home prices will fall.
The south loop will be a mini-miami and it pretty much already is.
I stopped mentioning south loop after someone went off on me for saying the word “gentrifying” as if I was using some racist code for once a poor black very violent neighborhood. Next time I will just say that. When they cut social services to balance the budgets that area has the potential to be very frightening. What surprised me most is what people paid down there. I do think that museum tower is a pretty building though.
John.. if you have been getting any info on 1 Bal Harbor I’d always be interested in updates. Was crazy overpriced and wondering how much that one comes off. For me it was b/w that area and Brickell Key.
IB,
If you want to be really sickened or amused I have a whole collection of realtor lies and myths that I debunk here:
http://blog.lucidrealty.com/category/real-estate-myths-lies/
IB – I can see One Bal Harbor from my windows and balcony. I had heard the condo-hotel was a bust…no surprise there. I don’t see many lights on the Atlantic view units but have seen maybe 20% on the bay view units….that is a LOT compared to the Trump Towers (first one had closings for some time) which 5% lights on would be a miracle…$1B in condos and empty, as 2nd and 3rd towers start closing now one will want to close as each tower was more expensive than the last (all three buildings are identical). The Solis basically stopped 2 months or so ago. Jade Beach started closings (probably will not go well). Crazy empty buildings with (formerly) $1M+ units on the beach.
Thanks Gary but I have a sick pup right now and have literally seen all the crap one can in a day. I’ll be staying upstairs near him all night i think. Think he probably ate something so just gave him some de-wormer in case. (i like to assume everyone loves dogs so letting you all know not to worry)
I wonder if by now even realtors would want to break up NAR they are making them look so foolish. Actually on a very weak wireless connection looking at Asia open and thinking about Bob and his value investing. He needs to look at Japan for the past 23 years now.
John.. you should try Carpaccio in the mall there… excellent Seafood pasta. And silly cheap for that mall. Great visuals and great food are 2 of my favorite things.
Gary.. ROFLMAO… Awesome!!!!!!!
What is credit?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLoJzRl-p0M
IB,
Your quote is telling:
“People are just frighteningly complacent.”
This is why I don’t shed a tear for John or Jane sixpack. I can’t feel sympathetic to the dumb, fat, complacent crowds of plebians who got us in this mess. And I don’t even need to take political sides to say this as I think the two party system is part of the problem.
This is why I am so irked at the happy people this month who believe they somehow did something special for the world by voting their party line, or even just voting for their O or M presidential candidate. Party and casual voters (casual voters=only pres. election voters) just appear to be monkeys to me or bacterium reacting to stimuli. I do feel a bit dirty for taking an elitist mentality on this issue but maybe the average citizen should learn life is not about simple dichotomies or two sides. I think our nation would be much better if we had a multitude of parties that perhaps were based on one issue each.
Want to be more disgusted, read this bloomberg article about how your tax dollars went to Morgan Stanley’s bonus pool this year:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=azo7aySdpFHw&refer=home
I think Illinois is especially comical, however. Due to inner city Chicago urbanites and large swaths of other groups the D party has a monopoly here. So we get idiot proposals from our governor that are as disconnected from reality as could possibly be. Did he really propose not to increase the number of highway lanes but to take one away and make it a green or higher toll lane? LMAO. Comedy. I am all for the government here getting worse and making the quality of living worse and depressing people as people deserve what they vote for. For me personally the amount of entertainment value I get from watching idiots suffer will more than outweigh the marginal inconvenience on my life from an increasingly less competent government.
Bob: That government is now running the banks, the largest insurance company in the world and soon, the American auto makers.
Stunning, isn’t it?
Sabrina,
The Wall Street banks (that are left) still pay far higher than government pay, so I guess I am confused.
But yeah it is all quite sad. The wool has been pulled so far over the average person’s eye it is surreal and sad.
Privatized gains but socialized losses. And people are allowing it to happen.
Bob: I’m not talking about pay. I’m talking about the government actually running the financial system. If you think our governor is disconnected by proposing his highway plan, what do you think will happen to our banks?
I don’t suspect the government will be running the banks. It’s just an investment. They didn’t run Chrysler.
As for Morgan and friends… what shocks me is THEY KNEW before the bill was passed that was the design and kept it hush hush or it would not have been palatable and passed.
Theft… simple theft.
Well stock market oitff hard again this morning. If it breaks here there is NOTHING underneath and has another 2k to go, easy. Let’s see if a Dow 5,000 wakes people up a bit.
Sabrina… What I have seen the past 7 years. No bid contracts becoming norm, Private armies, crazy gov’t spending, the gov’t getting into and controlling private businesses has left me speechless and led me to leave the country. I really hope we see some serious change now. Honestly I think Obama has bit his tongue a few times in order to not lose the election. He does not strike me as a guy who will bite that tongue as President. I’m hoping for a few surprises.
Bob America is facing global equilibrium. The disparity between developing and western nations is to great, and the barriers between the two have been broken (i.e, I am in a 3rd world country with 12mbs connection), equilibrium dictates it can not stay that way. It will be very bad to be unskilled labor the next 50 years.
A global depression is baked in the cake. Industrial production dropped off a cliff in the late 20’s and early 30’s and we’re seeing it again today. I read an article on bloomberg yesterday that says that Volvo, the world’s second largest heavy machinary maker, “… said it received 115 order bookings for heavy trucks in Europe in the quarter, down from 41,970 trucks a year earlier. Customers in Europe are taking a “wait and see” attitude amid turmoil in global financial markets, Volvo said. ”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a_MlLf33J7Jw
Watching home prices fall is one thing but watching the formation of a global depression is some scary stuff. Now even I’m starting to get worried.
HD… that’s what we were talking about last night. Even if you did everything right you may have some very unforseen issues going forward. Go find some photographs from the 30’s, not pretty.
On a brighter note with the currency rally you can eat a 10% loss in Chicago and get a place in Sydney for 60% off. Happy happy joy joy. 🙂
Gary: The government is already dictating salaries at the banks and AIG. The Fed is now monitoring all of Goldman Sachs deals. You think they’re going to be taking ANY risks? Of course not. But risktaking is what made this country great. What happens when that goes away?
Sabrina,
You don’t know what you’re talking about. The gov is dictating salaries at the very high executive level. Risks ARE still being taken, though obviously not at the same leverage levels. Do you really think the gov monitors every single trade that GS does?
The Pritzker’s “WASP’y guilt”? That’s funny!
“idiot proposals from our governor”. VOTE YES for the Constitutional Convention. Then, maybe, next time we get a corrupt moron like Blago, we can re-call him (or her). And maybe we can get the Cook County Board changed, too.
Sold for $900K
JPS.. you the man!!!!!!
Thanks for all that info in 1 shot!
What an awesome flashback hearing about anon(tfo) talking about how corrupt our former govna was a whole six weeks before his arrest!
Anything else you got going on in that Magic 8 Ball of yours? 😀
Unfortunately this state’s voters are without hope. They shot down that constitutional convention quickly. Apathetic idiots–they really do deserve to be punished, quality of life wise.